Hydrablog

http://the-diplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2011/02/28/taiwan-must-avoid-a-greek-fate/
The Diplomat
Blog
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:20:30 PM] [*]
Taiwan Must Avoid a Greek Fate
By James Holmes & Toshi Yoshihara
February 28, 2011 [commentary] [on China’s plans vis-à-vis Taiwan] [I’m not sure why they felt compelled to publish this] [apparently there are some out there who think that China has quit coveting Taiwan as part of China?] [anyway, assuming there are some who think that, this is a pretty straightforward piece on how China really views Taiwan and what that means for Taiwan] [when they cite “Greek Fate” they mean ancient Greece, as in the Peleponesian warss] [*]
We could hardly agree more with Prof. Daniel Lynch’s appraisal of the situation across the Taiwan Strait—let’s not mistake happy talk and economic agreements for a durable cross-strait status quo. Beijing shows no sign of relenting on its goal of imposing its rule on Taiwan, and Chinese spokesmen are admirably forthright about this. [why on earth would PRC defer to Taiwan?] [who’d think such a silly thing?] [the Han are a bunch of people whose govt and insitutions and history is China (PRC)] [*]
Nonetheless, when we discuss cross-strait relations with senior US military officers, they

http://the-diplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2011/02/28/taiwan-must-avoid-a-greek-fate/
The Diplomat
Blog
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:20:30 PM] [*]
Taiwan Must Avoid a Greek Fate
By James Holmes & Toshi Yoshihara
February 28, 2011 [commentary] [on China’s plans vis-à-vis Taiwan] [I’m not sure why they felt compelled to publish this] [apparently there are some out there who think that China has quit coveting Taiwan as part of China?] [anyway, assuming there are some who think that, this is a pretty straightforward piece on how China really views Taiwan and what that means for Taiwan] [when they cite “Greek Fate” they mean ancient Greece, as in the Peleponesian warss] [*]
We could hardly agree more with Prof. Daniel Lynch’s appraisal of the situation across the Taiwan Strait—let’s not mistake happy talk and economic agreements for a durable cross-strait status quo. Beijing shows no sign of relenting on its goal of imposing its rule on Taiwan, and Chinese spokesmen are admirably forthright about this. [why on earth would PRC defer to Taiwan?] [who’d think such a silly thing?] [the Han are a bunch of people whose govt and insitutions and history is China (PRC)] [*]
Nonetheless, when we discuss cross-strait relations with senior US military officers, they often inform us that China evinces little desire to use the formidable military it’s constructing to achieve longstanding political aims. We fully agree with them on this point. [*]Where we do part ways with them, though, is on the sweeping conclusions they draw from this trivial point—namely that Beijing so abhors the prospect of armed conflict that it will accept the cross-strait status quo more or less indefinitely, and presumably compromise on national unity. [*]
Doubtful. As we see it, Beijing is attempting to amass such military superiority over the island’s armed forces, along with such an overbearing deterrent against outside intervention, that Taipei has little choice but to acquiesce in unification on the mainland’s terms [I think that is absolutely what China plans] [they’ve always taken their time securing what they want] [this fits with the Middle Kingdom’s long history] [*] while Taipei’s friends have little choice but to stand aside. If so, China is building a strong People’s Liberation Army (PLA) precisely to avoid using that force in combat. Armed conflict is a perilous enterprise. [*] Accordingly, Sun Tzu portrays winning without fighting as ‘the acme of skill’. [I think there’s a tendancy to overdramatize Sun Tzu (the Rising Sun—the book and the movie—phenomenon) but yes] [*] Western sage St. Augustine teaches that even those who disturb the peace through warfare have no intrinsic hatred of peace. They simply want to transform the existing peace into one that suits them better, and they are prepared to use arms to effect such a transformation—accepting the risks entailed by violent conflict.Force is a last resort, then, even for those who use force.
As Lynch implies, the task before Taipei is to combine political measures with artful deployment of military force, presenting such a hard target that Beijing never concludes it can win without running unacceptable risk. Thucydides illuminates the dynamics at work in the Taiwan Strait. When the island of Melos appeared likely to defect from the Athenian Empire to rival Sparta 2500 years ago, the Athenian Assembly dispatched an embassy to make the islanders an offer they couldn’t refuse. [yes, it’s a wonderful speech] [*] They could bow to Athenian wishes or see their male populace slaughtered, their women and children enslaved. As the ambassadors informed the Melians, questions of justice only arise between rough equals in physical might. The strong do as they will, the weak do as they must. [*]
Unable to resist an Athenian assault, and with the Athenian navy barring any overseas reinforcements, the Melians had little recourse. They could surrender or die fighting. They opted for battle, and lost their city after a short, bloody siege. [yes, too often people use the anecdote without finishing the story] [the Melinas were slaughtered] [in short, the Athenians were spot on correct] [*] Does China want to impose a Melian fate on Taiwan? Not in a strict sense, but Beijing—whether it realizes it or not—is relying on the inexorable logic of power explicated by the Athenian emissaries. Antiquity holds valuable lessons despite the passage of time.
All this means that Taiwan can’t expect justice from China from a position of weakness. [it would be profoundly foolish for Taiwan to expect any such thing???] [*] Too grave a power mismatch across the Strait will leave Taipei with few options while disheartening the island’s inhabitants and their leaders. A PLA powerful enough to command the waters and skies adjoining the island could deter, delay, or defeat outside succour, presumably from US Pacific Fleet units operating across great distances from Japan, Guam, and Hawaii. To give themselves the time Prof. Lynch rightly says they need, the Taiwanese government and armed forces must apply their energies and ingenuity to devising a naval and aerial strategy that denies the PLA control of the Strait, holding off an invasion force, and that helps US reinforcements fight their way into the theatre. [this is precisely what Secretary Gates sees over the horizon, among others] [that’s exactly why he’s re jiggering the balance of America’s forward force posture back to Navy-AF away from Army’s mechanized battalions] [**]
Only by doing this can Taiwan preserve its de facto independence for long enough to matter. China doesn’t yet boast the overwhelming supremacy of Athens over its environs. The United States is by no means as powerless as Sparta. And Taiwan’s plight does not yet approach that of Melos. [but Taiwan’s fate is certain] [slowly but surely the mainland will re absorb Taiwan] [why would PRC risk fighting with America over it when it can slowly do it over the next 50, 75, or 100 years?] [*]
But Taipei must act lest things degenerate that far.
James Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara are associate professors of strategy at the US Naval War College, where Yoshihara holds the Van Beuren Chair of Asia-Pacific Studies. The views voiced here are theirs alone.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:47 PM | Permalink

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/gates-get-ready-for-sea-air-space-showdowns/
Wired Magazine
The Danger Room
Blog
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:18:32 PM] [*]
Gates: Get Ready for Sea, Air, Space Showdowns
By David Axe
February 28, 2011 |
3:12 pm | [one of the best national-security blogs I know] [on Gates attempts to transform the military] [I have recently commented quite a bit on Gates and the stuff I think he’s trying to do on his way out] [I have tremendous respect for him] [I think he’s trying to do what he thinks is the right thing—knowing he doesn’t have to protect his reputation for the next blue-ribbon panel or whatever] [he’s doing a major service for the Obama presidency (even though Gates is Republican) because he thinks it’s the right thing to do] [excellent piece that has role-individual in it implicity] [cross in role-individual] [*]
The era of big land wars is ending. Any senior official recommending a large-scale deployment of U.S. ground troops to Asia, the Middle East or Africa “should have his head examined,” to quote Gen. Douglas MacArthur. Instead, get ready for a new epoch of air and sea wars. Those were the surprising remarks Defense Secretary Robert Gates delivered to an audience of U.S. Army cadets at West Point, New York, on Friday.[*]
Surprising, because it was Gates himself who fought to expand the U.S. Army and Marine

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/gates-get-ready-for-sea-air-space-showdowns/
Wired Magazine
The Danger Room
Blog
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:18:32 PM] [*]
Gates: Get Ready for Sea, Air, Space Showdowns
By David Axe
February 28, 2011 |
3:12 pm | [one of the best national-security blogs I know] [on Gates attempts to transform the military] [I have recently commented quite a bit on Gates and the stuff I think he’s trying to do on his way out] [I have tremendous respect for him] [I think he’s trying to do what he thinks is the right thing—knowing he doesn’t have to protect his reputation for the next blue-ribbon panel or whatever] [he’s doing a major service for the Obama presidency (even though Gates is Republican) because he thinks it’s the right thing to do] [excellent piece that has role-individual in it implicity] [cross in role-individual] [*]
The era of big land wars is ending. Any senior official recommending a large-scale deployment of U.S. ground troops to Asia, the Middle East or Africa “should have his head examined,” to quote Gen. Douglas MacArthur. Instead, get ready for a new epoch of air and sea wars. Those were the surprising remarks Defense Secretary Robert Gates delivered to an audience of U.S. Army cadets at West Point, New York, on Friday.[*]
Surprising, because it was Gates himself who fought to expand the U.S. Army and Marine Corps in recent years, and who argued forcefully for greater focus on our current, large-scale, Asian land wars — even when that meant cutting some of the Air Force’s and Navy’s priciest big-war weapons in favor of new gear to support the Army. [*]
But Gates also spent years quietly prepping the Navy and Air Force to step up, once today’s land wars wound down. In telling the Army that it’s time on point has passed, Gates is simply making public a contingency he had long prepared for. But that’s not to say the secretary is beyond criticism, or the Army immune to risk. [*]
Speaking at a cold and snowy West Point campus, Gates delivered the good news first. “The need for heavy armor and firepower to survive, close with, and destroy the enemy will always be there, as veterans of Sadr City and Fallujah can no doubt attest,” the white-haired 67-year-old crowed. [*]
Then, the bad news. “Looking ahead, though, in the competition for tight defense dollars within and between the services, the Army also must confront the reality that the most plausible, high-end scenarios for the U.S. military are primarily naval and air engagements – whether in Asia, the Persian Gulf or elsewhere.” [*]
“As the prospects for another head-on clash of large mechanized land armies seem less likely,” Gates added, “the Army will be increasingly challenged to justify the number, size and cost of its heavy formations.” [*]
In my experience, Army cadets are some of the most respectful people on the planet. Even so, one can imagine a lot of nervous throat-clearing as the secretary’s Kansas twang echoed in the chamber. After a decade during which the Army has borne the brunt of the fighting in two wars, losing around 4,000 soldiers in the process, Gates was telling the ground-combat branch that its most sophisticated capabilities are no longer needed — at least, not in large quantities. [*]
Instead, the Army must be lighter, faster and more flexible. “The strategic rationale for swift-moving expeditionary forces, be they Army or Marines, airborne infantry or special operations, is self-evident given the likelihood of counter-terrorism, rapid reaction, disaster response or stability or security-force assistance missions,” Gates said. [*]
But tanks, artillery and armored fighting vehicles? Not so much.
Gates’ argument is that America’s strategic goalposts have moved past today’s large-scale land wars. [*]This is not an unreasonable position to hold. The most likely near-term security challenges cannot be addressed using armored divisions.
China and Russia, for example, are re-arming with new ships, subs and stealth fighters and exerting greater influence on their neighbors, mostly without mobilizing tank armies. [*]Nuke-seeking upstarts such as Iran and North Korea have deployed ships, submarines, coastal artillery and even hovercraft in bold defiance of world concern. The Middle East and Africa are in the midst of profound changes that could shatter existing relationships with Washington and render large ground deployments untenable. [*]
Gates has always advocated for an atmosphere of cool-headed realism in the headquarters of the world’s most powerful military. That means fighting the war at hand, whatever that war might be.[*] “This is a department that principally plans for war,” he told our own Noah Shachtman two years ago. “It’s not organized to wage war. And that’s what I’m trying to fix.”
With the U.S. involvement in Iraq all but ended, and a staged withdrawal from Afghanistan possible in the next few years, perhaps Gates is simply turning his attention to the next most-immediate conflicts. And those happen to be Cold War-style showdowns at sea and in the air (and in space). He even implied this might happen in a speech last year. “The weight of America’s deterrent and strategic military strength has shifted to our air and naval forces,” Gates said. [*]
To that end, some observers believe the secretary is preparing the ground for a big reduction in the Army’s thousands-strong tank force.
This should not be read as a defense cut. Gates, who has described himself as an “old Cold Warrior” that “didn’t molt from a hawk into a dove” when he joined the Obama administration after two years under George W. Bush, has consistently argued against reducing the Pentagon’s overall budget, even during the darkest months of the recession. His recent “efficiencies” were really just efforts to move resources from less-urgent weapons programs to more badly-needed ones. Any money and manpower saved by eliminating tanks would probably get reinvested in the Army. [it’s called management] [and it had recently gone out of fashion because of Iraq and AfPak] [but it’s returning and will be with us for long run] [*]
Indeed, Gates’ underlying conservatism is detectable across his policies, going back years. On more than one occasion, Gates warned against demobilizing the military after today’s land wars end. This expressed caution belies the secretary’s subtle hedging against the very emerging threats he outlined in his West Point speech. Looking back, it seems that Gates carefully avoided cutting too deeply into the Navy and Air Force, just in case America found itself facing major airborne and seaborne rivals. [*]
Consider: while Gates curtailed the Navy’s multi-billion-dollar stealth destroyer program in 2008, he did so in favor of a larger fleet of the arguably more effective Burke-class destroyer. [*]Moreover, this year the secretary actually increased the Navy’s overall annual shipbuilding slate to more than 10 ships — something that hadn’t happened in 15 years. [can you say China?] [*] He also shepherded a long-planned doubling of attack-submarine production starting in 2012.
Gates performed a similar trick with the Air Force. True, in 2009 he ended production of the $300-million-per-copy F-22 Raptor stealth fighter at just 187 copies, but only because he was committed to maintaining an Air Force fighter fleet that’s stealthy and numerous — and that meant funneling all resources into the potentially much-cheaper F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Despite serious technical challenges, Gates has never wavered from his plan to build more than 1,700 F-35s for the Air Force. And just a few weeks ago he launched development of a new stealth bomber for the flying branch. [that’s a bunc of new F-35s and they are really nice aircraft] [check the verions for the AF versus the Marines-Navy versus . . . ] [*]
These are not the doings of a SecDef who was ever interested in shortchanging the Navy and Air Force. This, too, is a point Gates made years ago, as he defended his decision to truncate the F-22 program. “Contrary to what some have alleged, the purpose was not to reorganize and rearm the entire U.S. military to hunt insurgents and do nation-building or to fight wars just like Iraq and Afghanistan,” [*]he said.
With his West Point speech, Gates might have been making his recent shift toward air and sea power more public, but it was a contingency he had long prepared for — and now believes is necessary. [*]All the same, the secretary’s assessment of the Army’s usefulness might seem unfair to some. For others, it might even invoke the chilling specter of Gates’ “Transformation”-obsessed predecessor, Donald Rumsfeld. [indeed, I made the same point in past couple days in comments] [I noted that Rummy’s bad reputation, while understandable, was off the mark when it came to transforming the military for modern threats] [he deserved far more credit for that aspect] [whether or not he screwed up on Iraq?] [*]
Readers might be forgiven for hearing echoes of Rumsfeld’s doomed “net-centric” Army in Gates’ comments. There was a good reason Rumsfeld’s Army reforms stalled: traditional, big war ground forces are still really useful — even for so-called “low-intensity” operations, like counterinsurgencies. [*]As both Iraq and Afghanistan proved, it’s the heavy weaponry that opens up a country for the lighter forces to chase guerrillas or rebuild shattered states. It’s the heavy weaponry that often protects those light forces. Your infantry may not survive without plenty of armor, in other words.
Inside sources tell Danger Room that the most likely outcome of Gates’ current thinking is a tweaks to the mix and balance of the Army’s heavy and light forces. Carefully executed, these changes could preserve the Army’s ability to fight future wars of all sorts, while still allowing the Air Force and Navy to take the lead in America’s overall defense posture. [so as I said a few years ago when Marines made a big play for AfPak, it was smart] [the Marines come out of this is pretty good shape] ]relatively speaking, the Marines come out well—Marines have always been shortchanged because the Army] [now the Army will give up some of that cushion to Navy (including Marines) and AF] [*]
But get the balance wrong, and the future Army could find itself ineffective and vulnerable — the very deficiencies Gates fought so hard to correct.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:45 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/28/the_whack_a_mole_strategy
Foreign Policy
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:16:48 PM] [*]
The Whack-a-Mole Strategy
Caught between dictators and democrats, and with problems popping up everywhere, the Obama administration is going to have to be content with playing catch up.
BY AARON DAVID MILLER | FEBRUARY 28, 2011 [Arron david Miller’s opinion] [he worked in Clinton administration] [on Jasmine Revolution] [*]
As the great Arab Spring breaks apart a frozen and sclerotic Arab world, America is having a tough time finding its way. Get used to it. It's the new normal. Navigating in a world of rising democrats and falling dictators will be painful and messy. And the new Middle East will only widen the contradictions between America's interests, values, and policies. [my point exactly] [*]
As the Arabs see it, Washington has long disappointed in matters of war and peace. And now is no exception. America's Arab autocratic friends worry it's too tough on them and no longer a reliable ally; Arab democrats lament that America is not tough enough, nor more supportive of them. You eased a good friend (Hosni Mubarak) out of power, say the Saudis

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/28/the_whack_a_mole_strategy
Foreign Policy
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:16:48 PM] [*]
The Whack-a-Mole Strategy
Caught between dictators and democrats, and with problems popping up everywhere, the Obama administration is going to have to be content with playing catch up.
BY AARON DAVID MILLER | FEBRUARY 28, 2011 [Arron david Miller’s opinion] [he worked in Clinton administration] [on Jasmine Revolution] [*]
As the great Arab Spring breaks apart a frozen and sclerotic Arab world, America is having a tough time finding its way. Get used to it. It's the new normal. Navigating in a world of rising democrats and falling dictators will be painful and messy. And the new Middle East will only widen the contradictions between America's interests, values, and policies. [my point exactly] [*]
As the Arabs see it, Washington has long disappointed in matters of war and peace. And now is no exception. America's Arab autocratic friends worry it's too tough on them and no longer a reliable ally; Arab democrats lament that America is not tough enough, nor more supportive of them. You eased a good friend (Hosni Mubarak) out of power, say the Saudis (and Israelis); you're not hard enough on the Bahrainis, Yemenis, or Libyans, say others. [*]At best, America is seen as marginal to recent events; at worst a weak friend and weaker foe.
The knock against American policy is both unfair and misplaced. It assumes a degree of control over these events and a coherence in U.S. policy that never really existed. [absolutely] [*]
On the contrary, Barack Obama's administration has played a pretty bad hand pretty well. [so far I agree] [*] Sure the president has been playing catch-up -- probably talking too much on Egypt and not enough about Libya. But imagine the challenge: how to identify with reformist democratic movements trying to change regimes where America still has friends and interests.
That's really mission impossible, and different from previous challenges. In the past, America did literally help turn the world at critical moments: in postwar Europe with the Truman Doctrine, Marshall Plan, and NATO; in the 1970s with détente with Russia and opening to China; in the late 1980s with a smart response to a collapsing Soviet Union. American policy was active and dynamic with a sense of direction and strategy.
But this isn't your grandfather's crisis. And here's why.
It's not America's story: Even the foreign-policy Energizer bunnies in the Obama administration know that the change sweeping the region is driven by internal indigenous forces. And America should rejoice in that fact, even while its capacity to shape the outcomes is drastically limited. That the reference points for these reformist movements have little to do with Washington or Jerusalem offers the best hope that the arc of change will endure and reflect the legitimacy of a popular broad-based quest for freedom, economic prosperity, and individual rights. [*]It shouldn't surprise us in the least if these new reformers are open to U.S. economic aid but are wary of having Washington involved in funding civil society and good governance. America has for too long been seen as meddling and favoring democratic change -- so long as Washington's democrats prevail. It will be fascinating to see what the Obama administration's approach will be on engaging the Muslim Brotherhood. [*]
Still caught in the devil's bargain: In the months ahead, it will be hard for the United States to make clear-cut choices because its interests and partners won't allow it. Coming down hard as the administration is now doing on Libya was easy. In Bahrain, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, where autocratic regimes hold sway and where Washington has equities from counterterrorism to containment of Iran, America will be doing a fair measure of dancing that is likely to alienate democrats and autocrats alike. [agreed] [*]Even in Egypt, which has the best chance for a real democratic transition, the United States will have to tread carefully between a military and security establishment with which it has close ties and interests (the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, counterterrorism) and a rising reformist movement that will demand greater political and economic space and civilian oversight. America may well get caught in the middle. [agreed] [don’t give a press conference every time somebody says the White House hasn’t done enough] [ignore the media fascination—the media have incredibly short attention span] [out wait them] [*]
Interests versus policies: In a new and more democratic Middle East, the gap between U.S. policies and interests will also grow larger. As politics open up and public and elite sentiments (whether Islamist or secular nationalist) shape government policy, America's own policies will come under greater scrutiny and criticism. From containment of Iran to Gaza, from counterterrorism to the Mideast peace process, America will be that much more on the defensive. The gaps between those policies and America's interests and values will be harder to bridge in an Arab world in which the autocrats are gone or are slipping away. America's policies, particularly toward Israel and Iran, will not change quickly, or likely change at all. But the space available to pursue them will contract.
The new Middle East will be as difficult as the old, with more uncertainty, not less. [*]America's interests will pull in one direction; America's policies in another. And like a giant game of whack-a-mole, change will keep popping up faster than Washington can possibly keep up with. At some point, the transformational phase of this revolution will give way to a transactional one hopefully bringing with it a greater degree of stability as the hard bargaining over power sharing begins. [*]
For now, keeping our head, while old autocrats (and friends) may be literally trying to keep theirs won't be easy. Memo to the president: Don't look for a grand strategy toward Arab reform and revolution. There isn't any. Ad hoc will have to do. [*]But if done smartly (remaining true to a set of general principles supporting peaceful change, tailoring those to specific countries where the United States may be able to have some influence on ruling elites, acting more boldly if necessary in crisis situations like Libya, and maintaining a consistent public line), it may see you through. And if and when the dust settles, you can begin to sort through the more herculean challenge of bringing America's interests and values into line with its policies.
Aaron David Miller is a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and former advisor to Republican and Democratic secretaries of state. His forthcoming book is Can America Have Another Great President?

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:43 PM | Permalink

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/the-never-ending-civil-war/431727.html
The Moscow Times
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:23:45 PM] [*]
The Never-Ending Civil War
28 February 2011
By Alexei Bayer [Russia] [former USSR] [Russia’s “Near Abroad” and what Russia considers its sphere of influence?] [use psci350] [use ir text] [the long, hard slog that is democratization] [Russia’s unique ethos: includes strong leaders (somewhat akin to Middle East) and Kremlin intrigues well before Bolsheviks] [followup] [tending the “Near Abroad”] [very interesting and plausible expose of differences between Putin and Medvedev?] [*]
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is the most successful Russian leader in five decades. Ever since he became prime minister in 1999 under President Boris Yeltsin, things have gone his way in an almost charmed manner. His position as the country’s most powerful man remains secure, and his approval ratings are consistently high. [*]His rivals among oligarchs have either been jailed or pushed out of the country. His friends and judo coaches, along with former dacha neighbors and KGB colleagues, have risen from obscurity to the Forbes list of the richest people in the world. Putin himself, according to various sources, has parlayed his position into a multibillion-dollar fortune. What’s more, he helped secure the hosting of the Winter Olympics in 2014 and the World Cup in 2018.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/the-never-ending-civil-war/431727.html
The Moscow Times
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:23:45 PM] [*]
The Never-Ending Civil War
28 February 2011
By Alexei Bayer [Russia] [former USSR] [Russia’s “Near Abroad” and what Russia considers its sphere of influence?] [use psci350] [use ir text] [the long, hard slog that is democratization] [Russia’s unique ethos: includes strong leaders (somewhat akin to Middle East) and Kremlin intrigues well before Bolsheviks] [followup] [tending the “Near Abroad”] [very interesting and plausible expose of differences between Putin and Medvedev?] [*]
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is the most successful Russian leader in five decades. Ever since he became prime minister in 1999 under President Boris Yeltsin, things have gone his way in an almost charmed manner. His position as the country’s most powerful man remains secure, and his approval ratings are consistently high. [*]His rivals among oligarchs have either been jailed or pushed out of the country. His friends and judo coaches, along with former dacha neighbors and KGB colleagues, have risen from obscurity to the Forbes list of the richest people in the world. Putin himself, according to various sources, has parlayed his position into a multibillion-dollar fortune. What’s more, he helped secure the hosting of the Winter Olympics in 2014 and the World Cup in 2018.
You would expect the man to be satisfied, vindicated and mellowing out. But Putin remains an angry man, just as brittle and volatile as when he appeared on Russia’s political stage more than a decade ago. At news conferences he is quick to get offended, spewing out his trademark put-downs. Putin still holds a grudge against former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili for whatever slights they inflicted upon him. [I believe it on both accounts] [*]
But Putin’s anger is equally matched by the opposition. Russia has achieved unprecedented prosperity largely because of high oil prices, and despite dark warnings of an imminent return to Soviet-style oppression it has remained open to trade and information. [and those prices just got a boost with oil skyrocketing to over $100 / barrel from Jasmine] [**] Opposition publications endure, the Internet is free, censorship remains largely absent, and travel is unrestricted.
But criticism of Putin’s regime, if anything, is getting harsher. The vitriol that liberal intelligentsia routinely directs against Putin is comparable only to right-wing fringe ravings against U.S. President Barack Obama. Since Russia’s best journalists and reporters tend to come from the opposition, we would have probably seen the same anti-Putin coverage on all of the national media if the country’s television and major newspapers had not been taken over by the state. [*]
I side with liberal critics who want Russia to become a liberal democracy and to join the West. But I also realize that the two sides — the government and the opposition — are perched at two irreconcilable extremes of the political divide. [*]
The problem is that the country’s Civil War, which began in 1918, never really ended. The lines have been redrawn, the combatants have changed, the warfare is no longer in the open, and fighting is rarely bloody. But social peace has not been restored. Soviet-era balladeer Bulat Okudzhava once wrote, “I will still die in the one and only Civil War, and commissars in their dusty caps will bow mutely over me.”
The reminders of this low-grade war are everywhere: in the return of Stalin’s name to Moscow’s Kurskaya metro station and Russia’s use of the old Soviet national anthem, its lyrics rejiggered by the same poet, Sergei Mikhalkov, who had penned the original. The recently celebrated Defender of the Fatherland Day actually marks the creation of the Red Army in 1918 and the start of the Civil War. National symbols are meant to bring a nation together. In Russia, they are divisive passwords used to separate “our side” from “theirs.”
This endless war has not only destroyed the middle ground but has eviscerated the nation. That is why bureaucrats all over the country — starting in the Kremlin and extending down to the regions, districts and even villages — are robbing the country blind. [*]It is merely the winning side getting its spoils.
Alexei Bayer, a native Muscovite, is a New York-based economist. © Copyright 2011. The Moscow Times. All rights reserved.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:41 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/pro-gadhafi-force-opens-fire-on-tripoli-protest-casualties-reported-1.346302
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:14 PM] [*]
Published 20:50 28.02.11
Pro-Gadhafi force opens fire on Tripoli protest, casualties reported
Demonstration in Tajoura neighborhood gathered close to 10,000 people; Libya warplanes bomb circle rebel-held district in east; government vows to send aid to Benghazi, but says won't rule out military force against rebels.
By Reuters [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [as Israel watches, it’s quite nervous about each and every U.S. initiative] [how will supporting Libyan opposition affect Israel?] [quite understandable] [followup] [*]
Several people were killed and others wounded on Monday after forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi opened fire to disperse a protest in the capital, the online edition of Quryna newspaper reported. [*]
The protest in the Tajoura neighborhood gathered close to 10,000 protesters, the Libyan

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/pro-gadhafi-force-opens-fire-on-tripoli-protest-casualties-reported-1.346302
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:14 PM] [*]
Published 20:50 28.02.11
Pro-Gadhafi force opens fire on Tripoli protest, casualties reported
Demonstration in Tajoura neighborhood gathered close to 10,000 people; Libya warplanes bomb circle rebel-held district in east; government vows to send aid to Benghazi, but says won't rule out military force against rebels.
By Reuters [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [as Israel watches, it’s quite nervous about each and every U.S. initiative] [how will supporting Libyan opposition affect Israel?] [quite understandable] [followup] [*]
Several people were killed and others wounded on Monday after forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi opened fire to disperse a protest in the capital, the online edition of Quryna newspaper reported. [*]
The protest in the Tajoura neighborhood gathered close to 10,000 protesters, the Libyan newspaper said, quoting its correspondent in the capital Tripoli. [*]
"When the protesters reached the Souk Juma, they were joined by armed men from the Gadhafi battalion who were dressed as civilians and opened fire on the unarmed youths ... Many among the youths were wounded and killed," it said, referring to a market in Tripoli. [*]
"The armed men then took the corpses of the dead, the wounded and even the bystanders who were near the wounded," it added. The report could not be immediately verified.
Also Monday, Libyan military aircraft circled a town in a rebel-held district, a security official said, adding that an earlier report they bombed an arms dump was incorrect. [*]
"Two military aircraft came to Djabiya, circled and returned," said Fathi Abidy, a member of the security council set up by the temporary administration in Libya's main eastern city Benghazi.
"A different source told me earlier there had been an attack," he told Reuters, after he had earlier reported that an arms dump had been hit but no one was hurt.
Another senior security source had also confirmed that an arms dump was hit, but could not be reached again to comment on the revised report suggesting no attack took place. [*]
Earlier Monday, the Libyan government said it would send an envoy to Benghazi, promising to deliver food, medicine and medical equipment to the riot-battered region.
"It will be this evening," said a source in the government, who did not want
to be named. "An envoy will depart from Tripoli to Benghazi. The envoy is carrying medicine and food and medical equipment to help the people in Benghazi." [?] [*]
The Qatar-based al Jazeera television earlier reported that Gadhafi had appointed an envoy to speak to the rebels based around Benghazi. But the government source made no mention of any planned negotiations. [*]
According to the report, Gadhafi has appointed Libya's foreign intelligence chief, Bouzaid Dordah, to speak to the leadership of the eastern region.
But a Libyan official said the government would not shy away from military force against the rebels should dialogue fail. [**]
Asked by reporters if Libya could use military force to retake rebel-held
cities, he said: "We will wait until all other attempts are exhausted. If all attempts and efforts for dialogue ... are exhausted, a very well guided force will be used in accordance with international rules."
A spokesman for the newly formed National Libyan Council, based in the eastern city of Benghazi and which has described itself as the face of the revolution, said on Sunday that he saw no room for negotiation with Gadhafi.
Gadhafi's forces have been trying for days to push back a revolt that has won over large parts of the military, ended his control over eastern Libya and is holding the government at bay in western cities near the capital Tripoli.
Meanwhile, Libya's eastern rebel army has begun urging young men eager to dash west to engage Gadhafi's forces to wait so they can turn them into an effective fighting force.
Hundreds from the eastern city of Benghazi are setting off each day across the desert to Libya's capital, some carrying knives and assault rifles, residents told Reuters.
But rebel officers say many more stayed behind to gather at makeshift training camps in schools and burnt-out barracks.
"We can give them what they need: training in assault, in defending a position. They should know that we are here to protect the youth revolution," said Marai Lojeli, a colonel in his 50s.
In Libya's third city Misrata, and in Zawiyah, a strategic refinery town 30 miles to the west, rebels with military backing were holding the town centers on Monday against repeated government attacks.
Rebels in Misrata downed a military aircraft attempting to take back the area, a witness said.
"An aircraft was shot down this morning while it was firing on the local radio station. Protesters captured its crew," the witness, Mohamed, told Reuters by telephone.
"Fighting to control the military air base started last night and is still going on. Gadhafi's forces control only a small part of the base. Protesters control a large part of this base where there is ammunition."
Foreign governments are increasing the pressure on Gadhafi to leave in the hope of ending fighting that has claimed at least 1,000 lives and restoring order to a country that accounts for 2 percent of the world's oil production.
Regional experts expect rebels eventually to take the capital and kill or capture Gadhafi, but add that he has the firepower to foment chaos or civil war - a prospect he and his sons have warned of.
Rebels holding Zawiyah said about 2,000 troops loyal to Gadhafi had surrounded the city on Monday and vowed to "do our best to fight them off".
They will attack soon," said a former police major who switched sides and joined the rebellion. "If we are fighting for freedom, we are ready to die for it."
Residents even in parts of the capital Tripoli have thrown up barricades against government forces. A general in the east of the country, where Gadhafi's power has evaporated, told Reuters his forces were ready to help rebels in the west.
"Our brothers in Tripoli say: "We are fine so far, we do not need help'. If they ask for help we are ready to move," said General Ahmed el-Gatrani, one of most senior figures in the mutinous army in Benghazi.
Opposition forces are largely in control of Libya's oil facilities, which are mostly located in the east, and output has been reduced to a trickle.
Western leaders, emboldened by evacuations that have brought home many of their citizens from the vast desert state, have been speaking out clearly against Gadhafi.
Wealthy states have sent planes and ships to bring home expatriate workers but many more, from poorer countries, are stranded. Thousands of Egyptians streamed into Tunisia on Sunday, complaining Cairo had done nothing to help them.
The United Nations refugee agency said on Sunday nearly 100,000 people have fled violence in Libya in the past week in a growing humanitarian crisis.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:40 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/iran-trying-to-buy-nuclear-missile-parts-from-norway-1.346310
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:13:02 PM] [*]
Published 22:16 28.02.11
'Iran trying to buy nuclear missile parts from Norway'
Norway's security chief says Iran approached small Norwegian companies that sell 'special components that can ... be used in weapons of mass destruction, for building missiles.' [*]
By Reuters Tags: Iran nuclear Israel news Norway Iran
Iran has been trying without success to obtain Norwegian missile technology for possible use in delivering nuclear weapons, Norway's security chief said on Monday. [why would Norway have missiles that could be used for nukes?] [*]
Janne Kristiansen, general director of the Norwegian Police Security Service, told Reuters Iran had approached small Norwegian companies that sell "special components that can ... be used in weapons of mass destruction, for building missiles". [I’m not sure if it’s clear whether a type of missile is specific for WMD?] [does she mean missiles with booster stages

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/iran-trying-to-buy-nuclear-missile-parts-from-norway-1.346310
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:13:02 PM] [*]
Published 22:16 28.02.11
'Iran trying to buy nuclear missile parts from Norway'
Norway's security chief says Iran approached small Norwegian companies that sell 'special components that can ... be used in weapons of mass destruction, for building missiles.' [*]
By Reuters Tags: Iran nuclear Israel news Norway Iran
Iran has been trying without success to obtain Norwegian missile technology for possible use in delivering nuclear weapons, Norway's security chief said on Monday. [why would Norway have missiles that could be used for nukes?] [*]
Janne Kristiansen, general director of the Norwegian Police Security Service, told Reuters Iran had approached small Norwegian companies that sell "special components that can ... be used in weapons of mass destruction, for building missiles". [I’m not sure if it’s clear whether a type of missile is specific for WMD?] [does she mean missiles with booster stages so it could theoretically lengthen distance??] [*]
Iranian efforts the past year, she said, targeted dual-use technology suitable for civilian products as well as advanced missiles like those that Norwegian contractor Kongsberg Defence Systems makes for several NATO navies and air forces. [*]
"There are many (companies in Norway) that supply missile technology," she said. "I am not pointing the finger at one company."
The West fears Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. Iran denies the charge, saying its nuclear programme is for producing electricity.[*]
Kongsberg Defence spokesman Ronny Lie said his company had hundreds of suppliers.
"We are a large state-owned company that always follows a strict export regime in our dealing with other nations," he said. "I would assume Iran knows that. So that's why if they do make approaches it would probably be to small companies."
He added that Kongsberg "has been aware of the general problem for a long time".
Kristiansen said her agency discovered Iran's attempts and stepped in before sensitive technology was passed.
In an assessment of Norwegian security threats that was published on Monday, her agency described "very pushy behaviour" by supposed commercial actors from Iran who would often inquire about innocuous products first.
They would then widen their wish list to include sensitive goods "and often make various proposals for transport and financing to circumvent Norwegian export regulations", the
agency said.
In its written assessment the agency did not specify missile technology as Iran's target, as Kristiansen did in an interview. Nor were any companies named.
Kristiansen said no Norwegian firms had been prosecuted because investigators lacked proof of intent to violate export controls or United Nations sanctions banning the sale of nuclear weapons-related technology to Iran. [*]
When asked if some firms have intentionally skirted regulations, she said: "Some do."[*]
“These companies have as a rule had good knowledge of potential loopholes and weaknesses in Norwegian export regulations and control mechanisms,” the security service said in its published assessment.
“We have also seen how small companies with falling revenues and liquidity problems can become potential targets for procurement actors. Such firms are in a vulnerable position and will potentially have a hard time saying no to lucrative contract offers.” [seems really risky?] [if it later became known wouldn’t these companies be violaters of provisions of NPT-PSI others?] [*]
Timothy Moore, a spokesman for the U.S. embassy in Norway, declined to say whether the United States was involved in disclosing the Iranian attempts.
"We have known for some time that Iran has been pursuing high technology around the world and we are naturally concerned, and that's why we work closely with Norway and our other European partners," he said.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:39 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/u-s-discussing-military-options-against-gadhafi-1.346324
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:12:23 PM] [*]
Published 23:04 28.02.11
'U.S. discussing military options against Gadhafi'
[Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [as Israel watches, it’s quite nervous about each and every U.S. initiative] [how will supporting Libyan opposition affect Israel?] [quite understandable] [followup] [on what they hear US is up to re same] [*]
Ambassador to UN Susan Rice says U.S. in talks with NATO partners and other allies to that regard; Clinton: Gadhafi must go now; EU joins UN, U.S. in imposing sanctions on Libya.
By Shlomo Shamir and Reuters
The United States is in talks with its NATO partners and other allies about military options for dealing with Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi, a senior official said following President Barack Obama's meeting with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Monday. [*]

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/u-s-discussing-military-options-against-gadhafi-1.346324
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/28/11 3:12:23 PM] [*]
Published 23:04 28.02.11
'U.S. discussing military options against Gadhafi'
[Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [as Israel watches, it’s quite nervous about each and every U.S. initiative] [how will supporting Libyan opposition affect Israel?] [quite understandable] [followup] [on what they hear US is up to re same] [*]
Ambassador to UN Susan Rice says U.S. in talks with NATO partners and other allies to that regard; Clinton: Gadhafi must go now; EU joins UN, U.S. in imposing sanctions on Libya.
By Shlomo Shamir and Reuters
The United States is in talks with its NATO partners and other allies about military options for dealing with Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi, a senior official said following President Barack Obama's meeting with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Monday. [*]
Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, also said the wave of sanctions being against Libya should make members of Gadhafi's government think about the consequences of their actions.
The Pentagon announced earlier Monday that the U.S. military was repositioning naval and air forces around Libya. [prudent thing to do?] [*]
"We have planners working and various contingency plans and I think it's safe to say as part of that we're repositioning forces to be able to provide for that flexibility once decisions are made ... to be able to provide options and flexibility," said Colonel David Lapan, a Pentagon spokesman. [*]
Also Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton accused Gadhafi on Monday of using "mercenaries and thugs" to suppress a popular uprising as world leaders sought new ways to isolate and oust him. [*]
"We have seen Colonel Gadhafi's security forces open fire on peaceful protesters. They have used heavy weapons on unarmed civilians. Mercenaries and thugs have been turned loose to attack demonstrators," Clinton said.
"Through their actions, they have lost the legitimacy to govern. And the people of Libya have made themselves clear: It is time for Gaddafi to go -- now, without further violence or delay," she told the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva. [*]
Many of the world's foreign ministers, in Geneva for a high-level session of the Council, discussed steps to pressure Gadhafi, whose violent bid to crush a two-week-old revolt against his 41-year rule has sparked international outrage.
European nations, who buy most of Libya's oil exports, mulled the idea of temporarily freezing payments to avoid having money get to Gaddafi's regime and Australia was among those calling for a no-fly zone over the North African nation. [*]
Clinton said exile was one option for Gaddafi, but he must still be held accountable for the violence of the crackdown.
"We want the violence to end. If the violence could be ended by his leaving and ending the killing of so many people who are trying to assert their rights, that might be a good step," she said. "But of course, we believe accountability has to be obtained for what he has done."[*]
U.S. officials say United Nations and other sanctions on Gadhafi and his core supporters may "peel off" the Libyan strongman's remaining allies and seal his political fate.
World leaders have repeatedly denounced Gadhafi's use of force against civilians and urged him to quit, but have been slow to take concrete action, constrained until expatriate workers were evacuated from Libya. [*]
The UN Security Council voted on Saturday for an arms embargo and other sanctions targeting Gadhafi and his inner circle, and referred the crackdown to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.[*]
Obama had already announced U.S. sanctions and on Saturday said it was time for Gadhafi to step down. The European Union on Monday approved its own package of sanctions, including an arms embargo and bans on travel to EU states.
Britain has revoked Gaddafi's diplomatic immunity and several states have frozen family assets.
Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd said his government would ask the United Nations to approve a no-fly zone.
Clinton said all options are on the table for further steps. But some U.S. officials have expressed concern a vote on a no-fly zone could be harder to secure at the Security Council where veto-wielding members Russia and China may resist. [*]
Asked if he had discussed a no-fly zone in his meeting with Clinton, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was adamant.
"Absolutely not. It was not mentioned by anyone," he told reporters.
Still, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton told reporters that a no-fly zone was under discussion, and Clinton described it as "an option we are actively considering."
"I discussed it today with allies and partners and we will proceed with this active consideration," Clinton said.
Earlier, British Foreign Minister William Hague told a news conference that to work, a no-fly zone would need clear international support as well as the means to enforce it.
He said Britain was "very sympathetic" to the idea of freezing oil purchase transfers for 60 days as a way to stop money from reaching Gaddafi. "That proposal, if it can be worked out successfully, could be part of that," he said.
A senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said such a move could have a significant impact on Gadhafi. [*]
"If the Europeans are willing to take the lead on that, that would be very consequential ... If they choose to go down that path and potentially put the funding into an escrow account for the Libyan people that would be a strong message," the U.S. official said.
In a news briefing, Clinton said it was critical that any additional pressure on Gaddafi not harm the Libyan people.
"We are very aware of the need to block access to resources and assets that the Libyan government and particularly Gaddafi and his family could get a hold of to continue his reign of violence against the Libyan people," [*]she said.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:38 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/27/AR2011022703846.html
Anxiety on all sides of upcoming House hearing on radicalization of U.S. Muslims
By Michelle Boorstein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, February 28, 2011; A04 [obama white house] [residual from previous tenures] [112th congress, 1st session] [House] [hearings on Muslims in America and the problems they cause for law enforcement and intelligence] [continuity in USFP?] [use psci 355-455, 469] [these Republican chairs are playing with fire for political reasons, it appears?] [*]
In some ways, Zuhdi Jasser doesn't match the profile of the typical Muslim American. He's an active Republican who has supported the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, is an advocate for Israel and says his faith harbors "an insidious supremacism."
Yet the Scottsdale, Ariz., doctor will be the face of American Islam for a Capitol Hill moment. Other than members of Congress, Jasser is the only witness that Rep. Peter T. King (R-N.Y.) has identified so far for his upcoming hearings on radicalization of American Muslims. [King in particular has played this card a lot] [I think he’s going to get burned someday?] [*]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/27/AR2011022703846.html
Anxiety on all sides of upcoming House hearing on radicalization of U.S. Muslims
By Michelle Boorstein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, February 28, 2011; A04 [obama white house] [residual from previous tenures] [112th congress, 1st session] [House] [hearings on Muslims in America and the problems they cause for law enforcement and intelligence] [continuity in USFP?] [use psci 355-455, 469] [these Republican chairs are playing with fire for political reasons, it appears?] [*]
In some ways, Zuhdi Jasser doesn't match the profile of the typical Muslim American. He's an active Republican who has supported the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, is an advocate for Israel and says his faith harbors "an insidious supremacism."
Yet the Scottsdale, Ariz., doctor will be the face of American Islam for a Capitol Hill moment. Other than members of Congress, Jasser is the only witness that Rep. Peter T. King (R-N.Y.) has identified so far for his upcoming hearings on radicalization of American Muslims. [King in particular has played this card a lot] [I think he’s going to get burned someday?] [*]
King, the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, has called the hearings to start March 9.
Although he initially spoke out to promote them, his decision in recent weeks to lie low (he declined to comment for this article) and to keep the witness list and precise questions quiet reflects the complexities of debating the problem, experts say.
Should the hearings focus strictly on hard data about American Muslim cooperation with law enforcement? Should they explore whether U.S. foreign policy helps breed radicalism? Can a congressional hearing in a secular nation explore whether Islam needs a reformation?
That final point is the core tenet for Jasser, a father of three, Navy veteran and former doctor to Congress.
Through his nonprofit group, the American Islamic Forum for Democracy, he debates other Muslims and appears on mostly conservative media to press Muslim leaders to aggressively oppose a "culture of separatism." He wants clerics to disavow scripture that belittles non-Muslims and women and to renounce a role for Islam in government.
As the only non-legislator King has announced he will call, Jasser is drawing a lopsided amount of attention. [*]
King will have a separate panel of congressional witnesses, and he has said he will call Muslim Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.). The Democrats on the committee will call Los Angeles County Sheriff Lee Baca, who has disputed King's contention that Muslims do not cooperate with law enforcement. [*]
With a mostly top-secret list and the first hearing in a few days, anxiety is building among Muslim Americans and national security experts alike. Although some hope that it will improve dialogue, others fear it could set off more prejudice.
National security experts "are holding their breath that it doesn't explode. I've heard that from people on all sides," said Juan C. Zarate, a senior adviser to the Center for Strategic and International Studies who was security adviser to President George W. Bush. [President Bush went out of his way not to offend America’s Muslim communities but King sees points to be scored] [he must genuinely believe some of it?] [*]
Muslim leaders initially lobbied for King to halt hearings but are now debating whether to try to get on the witness list. Long-standing critics of Muslim American organizations have blasted King for including "apologists" such as Ellison, one of two Muslims elected to Congress.
Some national security experts say King's plan could exacerbate terrorism overseas by making U.S. Muslims appear persecuted, while others say King's reputation for criticizing Muslims makes him a problematic moderator. Others say King has needlessly courted controversy.
"The U.S. government should investigate domestic Islamist radicalization," Daniel Pipes, the Middle East Forum director who has written extensively on the threat posed by radical Islamists, said in an e-mail. "Unfortunately, Rep. Peter King has proven himself unsuited for this important task, as shown by the gratuitous controversy he has generated over the mere selection of witnesses."
Into the void comes Jasser, who sits on the board of a nonprofit group that made two controversial films about the dangers of radical Islam. The Clarion Fund says on its Web site that the growth of the American Muslim population "is raising eyebrows from sea to shining sea. . . . And if you think that a growing Muslim population cannot threaten America, just look at Europe."
Jasser, a former head of the American Medical Association's Arizona chapter, is the personal physician to some prominent Arizonan, including former congressman J.D. Hayworth. Despite his work on conservative causes, Jasser says he has walked out of his mosque when politicians were brought in to speak. [*]
Jasser has always been affiliated with a local mosque and briefly served as a spokesman for the Islamic Center of North East Valley in Scottsdale, where his children attend classes. He was involved in interfaith work in Phoenix, where some activists say he is an outlier among Muslims.
So what expertise or constituency justifies this medical doctor being the only non-congressman King has named? "A lifetime of practicing my faith," he said in a telephone interview.
To Heather Hurlburt, executive director of the National Security Network, a progressive foreign-policy think tank, Jasser's rsum lacks any community leadership roles, any policy or academic expertise.
"These aren't people who we normally expect the policy process to produce," she said.
King faced criticism as soon as he announced in December that he would hold hearings on the threat of homegrown terrorism from Muslims.
Faith leaders, Muslim American organizations, the ranking Democrat on the committee - Mississippi Rep. Bennie Thompson - and some law enforcement leaders challenged the idea that Muslims should be the focus.
The subject is fraught with sensitivities on all sides. Some are horrified at Islam being singled out, while others want to ensure the religious aspect of terrorism is not ignored. [*]
The potential for giving offense has led to some clunky language. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.), who conducted 14 hearings on everything from Internet radicalization to the Fort Hood, Tex., shootings without major controversy, said it was exploring "homegrown terrorism and domestic radicalization inspired by violent Islamist extremism." [*]
Zarate, who calls Jasser "fantastic" because he offers an alternative, non-institutional voice, said the hearings could do damage if they create a sense that there is a divide between Muslim organizations and mainstream America.
"It would be a shame if the hearings didn't move the debate the country is having, both on how to combat violent extremism and also on Islamophobia." © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 07:06 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/27/AR2011022702871.html
In Lebanon, Hezbollah is watching, and waiting out, the Arab uprisings
By David Ignatius
Monday, February 28, 2011;
BEIRUT [oped] [the view of Hezbollah in Lebanon?]] [David discusses Hezbollah’s view of Jasmine Revolution] [*]
To visit Hezbollah officials, you turn left off the airport road, just past a billboard that shows Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad coyly waving at motorists. You then enter a neighborhood known as the "southern suburbs," which is the dense street fortress of the Shiite militia.
Here lies the headquarters of the group that now forms the strongest bloc in Lebanon's parliament. It's an unusual situation, to put it mildly: The Lebanese government is dominated by an organization that the United States and Israel designate as "terrorist." What's more, Hezbollah's ascendancy has given its patrons in Tehran what amounts to a beachhead on the Mediterranean, whose sparkling waters are just west of the militia's stronghold. [*]
Understanding Hezbollah is like watching a play of shadows; its real actions are hidden. The organization likes having power, and its military wing (which it insists is solely a "resistance"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/27/AR2011022702871.html
In Lebanon, Hezbollah is watching, and waiting out, the Arab uprisings
By David Ignatius
Monday, February 28, 2011;
BEIRUT [oped] [the view of Hezbollah in Lebanon?]] [David discusses Hezbollah’s view of Jasmine Revolution] [*]
To visit Hezbollah officials, you turn left off the airport road, just past a billboard that shows Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad coyly waving at motorists. You then enter a neighborhood known as the "southern suburbs," which is the dense street fortress of the Shiite militia.
Here lies the headquarters of the group that now forms the strongest bloc in Lebanon's parliament. It's an unusual situation, to put it mildly: The Lebanese government is dominated by an organization that the United States and Israel designate as "terrorist." What's more, Hezbollah's ascendancy has given its patrons in Tehran what amounts to a beachhead on the Mediterranean, whose sparkling waters are just west of the militia's stronghold. [*]
Understanding Hezbollah is like watching a play of shadows; its real actions are hidden. The organization likes having power, and its military wing (which it insists is solely a "resistance" force against Israeli troops to the south) is stronger than the Lebanese army. But it doesn't want responsibility for decisionmaking commensurate with its power, as I discovered in conversations with several Hezbollah officials. [surely it sees Sunni regimes in peril?] [*]
I met last week with Ammar al-Mousawi, the top Hezbollah "diplomat," and several of his subordinates in the organization's international department. This was an "unofficial" visit, so I can't directly quote Mousawi or his colleagues. But the discussion illustrated the thinking of the toughest player in the world's toughest political league.
Hezbollah appears to realize that the revolt sweeping the Middle East has subtly changed the game for them. Officials see the Arab world moving into a more democratic and pluralistic politics with the fall of regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and perhaps Libya. In this new environment, Hezbollah doesn't want to be seen as a sectarian militia or a wrecker, but as a democratic partner (albeit a potent one that has thousands of missiles pointed at Israel). Because Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are Sunni countries, recent events can be seen in part as a Sunni political resurgence, which Hezbollah must respect. [interesting, if true] [*]
The first order of business for Lebanon's Hezbollah-dominated government will be the delicate matter of the United Nations inquiry into the 2005 murder of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri. A U.N. special tribunal has been investigating the case, and news reports have predicted that it will release indictments soon that will name members of Hezbollah among those responsible.
To gain leverage against the tribunal, Hezbollah in January forced out Hariri's son Saad as prime minister. He will be replaced by Najib Mikati, a former prime minister who is one of Lebanon's most successful businessmen and is close to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Mikati has said he will support the U.N. Security Council, which presumably includes the tribunal. But Hezbollah seems assured that the practical effect of any indictments will be blunted and that the matter will be left unresolved in characteristic Lebanese fashion.
Hezbollah officials seemed surprisingly low-key about the tribunal last week. Officials said there is consensus on the need for justice for Hariri's death but disagreement about the mechanism. This has the effect of kicking the problem down the road to Mikati, and avoiding any direct Hezbollah fingerprints on strangling the tribunal.
The tribunal issue illustrates the frustrations of Lebanese politics. There's never an address for assigning responsibility. The buck doesn't stop anywhere. Perhaps Mikati, with his business background, can deal with this accountability problem.
So eager is Hezbollah to avoid responsibility for unpopular decisions that officials object to descriptions of the new government as Hezbollah-controlled. And they pointedly decline to endorse the tactics of their coalition partner, retired Lebanese general Michel Aoun, who is challenging President Michel Suleiman for leadership of the country's Christian community.
Does Hezbollah see any doors to the West opening in the post-Tahrir Square environment? Is a Middle East "restart" possible that might allow gradual engagement with, say, the United States? I didn't hear much enthusiasm for that idea, but Hezbollah doesn't oppose a continuation of military cooperation between Lebanon and the United States. Indeed, Hezbollah mischievously says that perhaps the Lebanese army should have more U.S. weapons - surely knowing that America would never provide them so long as Hezbollah is the strongest political force in town.
Hezbollah is a ruthless political player, but it's a mistake to underestimate the finesse of its tactics. Officials insist that no matter what the West may think, the Shiite militia is logical (meaning self-interested) in pursuing its policies. And the ever-logical Hezbollah seems to realize that even the self-styled "resistance" must make adjustments in this period of Arab upheaval.
davidignatius@washpost.com © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 07:05 AM | Permalink

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/world/europe/01refugee.html
February 28, 2011
Refugee Agency Speaks of ‘Emergency’ on Libya’s Borders
By ALAN COWELL [France] [Paris] [EU3] [home to many human rights organizations (NGOs)] [so in certain ways the world is watching Libya through lenses of France] [*]
PARIS — The United Nations refugee agency says almost 100,000 people have fled Libya’s fighting to neighboring Tunisia and Egypt in what it called a humanitarian emergency.
The numbers seem to have increased over the weekend as armed rebel forces moved closer to a showdown with Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and his loyalists who were standing their ground in Tripoli, the capital, and a handful of other places.
On Monday, the French prime minister, François Fillon, said in Paris that his country was sending two planes carrying doctors, nurses, medications and medical equipment to the rebels’ eastern stronghold of Benghazi.
The European Union said in Brussels that most of its 10,000 citizens in Libya had left, but there are still 650 asking to be evacuated, many of them from inhospitable areas where rescue is difficult, The Associated Press reported. Kristalina Georgieva, the European Union’s crisis response commissioner, said that another 1.5 million foreigners remain in Libya, increasing pressure on the borders with Egypt and Tunisia as non-Libyans seek to flee. [*]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/world/europe/01refugee.html
February 28, 2011
Refugee Agency Speaks of ‘Emergency’ on Libya’s Borders
By ALAN COWELL [France] [Paris] [EU3] [home to many human rights organizations (NGOs)] [so in certain ways the world is watching Libya through lenses of France] [*]
PARIS — The United Nations refugee agency says almost 100,000 people have fled Libya’s fighting to neighboring Tunisia and Egypt in what it called a humanitarian emergency.
The numbers seem to have increased over the weekend as armed rebel forces moved closer to a showdown with Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and his loyalists who were standing their ground in Tripoli, the capital, and a handful of other places.
On Monday, the French prime minister, François Fillon, said in Paris that his country was sending two planes carrying doctors, nurses, medications and medical equipment to the rebels’ eastern stronghold of Benghazi.
The European Union said in Brussels that most of its 10,000 citizens in Libya had left, but there are still 650 asking to be evacuated, many of them from inhospitable areas where rescue is difficult, The Associated Press reported. Kristalina Georgieva, the European Union’s crisis response commissioner, said that another 1.5 million foreigners remain in Libya, increasing pressure on the borders with Egypt and Tunisia as non-Libyans seek to flee. [*]
China said on Monday that it had sent four military transport planes to rescue the remaining 1,000 of some 30,000 of its citizens who had been there before the crisis.
In a statement on Sunday, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, based in Geneva, said Tunisian authorities to the west had estimated the number of refugees arriving from Libya at 40,000 in a week, while, to the east, Egyptian authorities said 55,000 people had fled since Feb. 19. Over half the total number of refugees were Egyptians, the refugee agency said, but they also included Libyans, Chinese and people from several other Asian countries.
To judge from television footage, the people fleeing through Libya’s land borders seem to be largely poor contract workers carrying whatever they could grab as they left. [*]Many citizens of wealthier countries such as the United States and many European nations were evacuated by sea and air from Tripoli and Benghazi, using the island of Malta as a staging point.
Television images showed hundreds of people crossing into Tunisia, then sitting glumly on the ground, awaiting help. Around 1,000 refugees — mainly Egyptian migrant workers — were pouring into Tunisia and some had slept on the ground in the open. But it was not clear how they would reach their homes in Egypt.
António Guterres, the high commissioner for refugees, said : “We are committed to assisting Tunisia and Egypt in helping each and every person fleeing Libya. We call upon the international community to respond quickly and generously to enable these governments to cope with this humanitarian emergency.”
The refugee agency’s statement said the crisis in Libya had left some people from Sudan, Bangladesh, Thailand and Pakistan stranded with no travel documents between Egypt and Libya.
“According to the tribal leaders, Africans are being treated with suspicion in eastern Libya, due to rumors about the government employing mercenaries from sub-Saharan Africa,” the statement said. The agency said it had sent more than 100 tons of relief supplies such as tents, plastic sheets, blankets, sleeping mats and cooking equipment. [*]
Reuters reported on Monday that Kenyans who fled said they had faced attacks and hostility from Libyan citizens and officials who branded them as mercenaries supporting Colonel Qaddafi.
A Kenya Airways flight landed in Nairobi with 90 Kenyans and 64 citizens from South Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Zambia, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone and Burundi, according to officials.
“We were being attacked by local people who said that we were mercenaries killing people. Let me say that they did not want to see black people,” Julius Kiluu, a 60-year-old building supervisor, told Reuters. [*]
Last week, British and German military planes flew into Libya’s desert, to pluck hundreds of workers and civilians from remote oil installations and, British news reports said, the British C-130 Hercules military transports were protected by special forces units in case they came under attack.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 07:04 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/business/global/01rupee.html
February 28, 2011
India Says It Expects Growth to Cut Deficit
By VIKAS BAJAJ [India] [South Asia] [India’s masses and some of its less fortunate states where poverty still reigns supreme] [with India becoming integrated into the global economy, despite an array of issues that has appeared, India is becoming less stratified all the time?] [just feeding its masses is a major issue] [use psci 350] [followup] [in particular ways, India has herulean task before it that China doesn’t face] [*]
MUMBAI — India is counting on faster economic growth to help reduce its large fiscal deficit and pay for increased spending on agriculture, education, health and infrastructure, according to a government budget presented on Monday.
But even as the government set those ambitious goals, a new report showed that India’s economy slowed more than anticipated at the end of last year. [*]
Growth in the final three months of 2010 fell to 8.2 percent, from 8.9 percent in the previous quarter. Analysts had forecast that growth would fall to 8.6 percent.
The slowdown, which some economists said could continue into this year as higher

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/business/global/01rupee.html
February 28, 2011
India Says It Expects Growth to Cut Deficit
By VIKAS BAJAJ [India] [South Asia] [India’s masses and some of its less fortunate states where poverty still reigns supreme] [with India becoming integrated into the global economy, despite an array of issues that has appeared, India is becoming less stratified all the time?] [just feeding its masses is a major issue] [use psci 350] [followup] [in particular ways, India has herulean task before it that China doesn’t face] [*]
MUMBAI — India is counting on faster economic growth to help reduce its large fiscal deficit and pay for increased spending on agriculture, education, health and infrastructure, according to a government budget presented on Monday.
But even as the government set those ambitious goals, a new report showed that India’s economy slowed more than anticipated at the end of last year. [*]
Growth in the final three months of 2010 fell to 8.2 percent, from 8.9 percent in the previous quarter. Analysts had forecast that growth would fall to 8.6 percent.
The slowdown, which some economists said could continue into this year as higher inflation and weaker private investment sap growth, poses the biggest challenge to the Indian government’s plans for the coming year. The finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, told Parliament on Monday that the government believed that gross domestic product would grow at between 8.75 percent and 9.25 percent in the coming fiscal year.
“Getting to 9 percent G.D.P. growth for next year might not be an easy task,” said Samiran Chakraborty, who heads research at Standard Chartered Bank in Mumbai. “That’s the risk he is now running. He has promised a lot, and he has to now deliver on that promise.”
Mr. Mukherjee was more sanguine about the economy, which he said was “back to its precrisis growth trajectory.” Before the financial crisis hit in 2008, India was growing at more than 9 percent a year. [*]
He said the government deficit would fall to 4.6 percent of G.D.P. in India’s 2011-12 fiscal year, which begins on April 1, from 5.1 percent in the current fiscal year. Total government spending would go up by 13.4 percent, Mr. Mukherjee added.
The stock market was pleased by Mr. Mukherjee’s commitment to reducing the deficit and his decision not to raise excise and other taxes, which many investors had feared he would. The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex index, which has fallen sharply since hitting an all-time high in early November, was up 0.7 percent in late afternoon trading. [*]
“He has not raised and restored the taxes that we were anticipating,” said Subhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank in Mumbai. “That has been positive for the market.”
Still, other investors and executives said they were disappointed that Mr.
Mukherjee did not make commit his government to major economic reforms in his speech, which analysts view as a blueprint of the government’s financial agenda for the coming year.
Businesses were hoping that he would propose easing restrictions on foreign investment in the retail and insurance industries, for instance. Last year, foreign direct investment in India fell 31 percent as many investors turned to other developing countries where it is easier to do business.
“It looks like an accountant’s budget,” said Arvind Singhal, chairman of Technopak Advisors, a consulting firm based in New Delhi. “It’s almost like we are trying to ignore the major challenges the country faces today.”
Mr. Singhal said the government should have bolstered its spending on health care and education much more significantly, while also making it easier for businesses to invest in these areas. The government should also have announced bigger changes in subsidy programs for food, fuel and fertilizers, he said.
India will spend about $26 billion in subsidies on those three items in the current fiscal year. Mr. Mukherjee said the government would start giving cash to buy fertilizers and certain fuels to the poor, rather than trying to control the prices of those items. The new approach should be in place by March 2012, he said.
On foreign investment, Mr. Mukherjee said India would start allowing foreigners to invest in Indian mutual funds and raise the limit on foreign investment in the bonds of infrastructure companies to $25 billion, up from $20 billion. He said policy makers were discussing easing restrictions on other kinds of investment, but he did not provide any details.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 07:03 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/02/28/world/middleeast/international-us-oman-protests.html
February 28, 2011
Oman Protesters Block Port Road
By REUTERS
Filed at 7:14 a.m. EST [Oman] [middle east] [Persian Gulf emirates] [democratization in the region] [Oman’s rather unique history of being part of Iran—the other side of Hormutz] [Jasmine Revolution spreading to Oman?] [see May 15, 16, 2009] [*]
SOHAR, Oman (Reuters) - Omani protesters demanding jobs and political reforms blocked roads to a main port in the north of the Gulf Arab sultanate as looters trashed a nearby supermarket on Monday, and demonstrations spread to the capital.
A doctor said six people had died in clashes between stone-throwing protesters and police on Sunday in the northern industrial town of Sohar, although Oman's health minister said only one person died and 20 were injured. [*]
Hundreds of protesters blocked access to an industrial area that includes the port, a refinery and aluminum factory. A port spokeswoman said exports of refined oil products that typically amount to 160,000 barrels per day from the port were unaffected.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/02/28/world/middleeast/international-us-oman-protests.html
February 28, 2011
Oman Protesters Block Port Road
By REUTERS
Filed at 7:14 a.m. EST [Oman] [middle east] [Persian Gulf emirates] [democratization in the region] [Oman’s rather unique history of being part of Iran—the other side of Hormutz] [Jasmine Revolution spreading to Oman?] [see May 15, 16, 2009] [*]
SOHAR, Oman (Reuters) - Omani protesters demanding jobs and political reforms blocked roads to a main port in the north of the Gulf Arab sultanate as looters trashed a nearby supermarket on Monday, and demonstrations spread to the capital.
A doctor said six people had died in clashes between stone-throwing protesters and police on Sunday in the northern industrial town of Sohar, although Oman's health minister said only one person died and 20 were injured. [*]
Hundreds of protesters blocked access to an industrial area that includes the port, a refinery and aluminum factory. A port spokeswoman said exports of refined oil products that typically amount to 160,000 barrels per day from the port were unaffected.
"We want to see the benefit of our oil wealth distributed evenly to the population," one protester said over a loudhailer near the port. "We want to see a scale-down of expatriates in Oman so more jobs can be created for Omanis," he yelled.
Peaceful protests also spread to other cities, with hundreds of people demonstrating outside a government ministerial complex in Muscat and at another site in the capital.
The unrest in Sohar, Oman's main industrial center, was a rare outbreak of discontent in the normally sleepy sultanate ruled by Sultan Qaboos bin Said for four decades, and follows a wave of pro-democracy protests across the Arab world. [*]
The sultan, trying to calm tensions, promised on Sunday to create more jobs, give unemployment benefits and study widening the authority of a quasi-parliamentary advisory council. [*]
While hundreds of demonstrators blocked roads near the port, hundreds more were at the main Globe Roundabout, angry after police opened fire on Sunday at protesters demanding political reforms, jobs and better pay.
Graffiti scrawled on a statue said: "The people are hungry." Another message read: "No to oppression of the people."
Nearby, sidewalks were smashed and office windows broken. Troops deployed around the town but were not intervening to disperse protesters, who pushed back four army vehicles observing the scene near the port.
"There are no jobs, there's no freedom of opinion. The people are tired and people want money. People want to end corruption," said Ali al-Mazroui, 30, who is unemployed.
LOOTING IN SOHAR
In Sohar, looters rushed in to scavenge a smoldering supermarket set alight by protesters who on Sunday also stormed and burned a main police station and set two government buildings ablaze.
One woman stacked up singed cartons of eggs, powdered milk, orange juice and cream cheese in the store, while others walked over shattered glass out the door pushing trolleys loaded with food as security forces were absent.
"There is no security. I want to live. It's normal," said 28-year-old Youssef, who is unemployed, as he left the market carrying 10 bottles of juice.[*]
Protests in Oman have so far demanded political reforms, more jobs, better pay and an end to corruption but have stopped short of calling for regime change.
Sultan Qaboos, who exercises absolute power in a country where political parties are banned, shuffled his cabinet on Saturday, a week after a small protest in the capital Muscat gave the first hint that Arab discontent could reach Oman.
The government, under pressure over its response to the Sohar protests, pledged on Sunday to create 50,000 more public sector jobs and hand out unemployment benefits of $390 a month.
Mostly wealthy Gulf Arab countries have stepped up reforms to appease their populations following popular unrest that toppled the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt and is threatening Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's grip on power. [*]
Oman is a non-OPEC oil exporter which pumps around 850,000 bpd, and has strong military and political ties to Washington.
Sultan Qaboos appoints the cabinet and in 1992 introduced an elected advisory Shura Council. Protesters have demanded the council be given legislative powers and on Sunday Qaboos ordered a committee to study increasing its authority. [*]

Posted by Kent Bolton at 07:02 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/02/28/world/middleeast/international-us-oman-protests.html
February 28, 2011
Oman Protesters Block Port Road
By REUTERS
Filed at 7:14 a.m. EST [Oman] [middle east] [Persian Gulf emirates] [democratization in the region] [Oman’s rather unique history of being part of Iran—the other side of Hormutz] [Jasmine Revolution spreading to Oman?] [see May 15, 16, 2009] [*]
SOHAR, Oman (Reuters) - Omani protesters demanding jobs and political reforms blocked roads to a main port in the north of the Gulf Arab sultanate as looters trashed a nearby supermarket on Monday, and demonstrations spread to the capital.
A doctor said six people had died in clashes between stone-throwing protesters and police on Sunday in the northern industrial town of Sohar, although Oman's health minister said only one person died and 20 were injured. [*]
Hundreds of protesters blocked access to an industrial area that includes the port, a refinery and aluminum factory. A port spokeswoman said exports of refined oil products that typically amount to 160,000 barrels per day from the port were unaffected.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/02/28/world/middleeast/international-us-oman-protests.html
February 28, 2011
Oman Protesters Block Port Road
By REUTERS
Filed at 7:14 a.m. EST [Oman] [middle east] [Persian Gulf emirates] [democratization in the region] [Oman’s rather unique history of being part of Iran—the other side of Hormutz] [Jasmine Revolution spreading to Oman?] [see May 15, 16, 2009] [*]
SOHAR, Oman (Reuters) - Omani protesters demanding jobs and political reforms blocked roads to a main port in the north of the Gulf Arab sultanate as looters trashed a nearby supermarket on Monday, and demonstrations spread to the capital.
A doctor said six people had died in clashes between stone-throwing protesters and police on Sunday in the northern industrial town of Sohar, although Oman's health minister said only one person died and 20 were injured. [*]
Hundreds of protesters blocked access to an industrial area that includes the port, a refinery and aluminum factory. A port spokeswoman said exports of refined oil products that typically amount to 160,000 barrels per day from the port were unaffected.
"We want to see the benefit of our oil wealth distributed evenly to the population," one protester said over a loudhailer near the port. "We want to see a scale-down of expatriates in Oman so more jobs can be created for Omanis," he yelled.
Peaceful protests also spread to other cities, with hundreds of people demonstrating outside a government ministerial complex in Muscat and at another site in the capital.
The unrest in Sohar, Oman's main industrial center, was a rare outbreak of discontent in the normally sleepy sultanate ruled by Sultan Qaboos bin Said for four decades, and follows a wave of pro-democracy protests across the Arab world. [*]
The sultan, trying to calm tensions, promised on Sunday to create more jobs, give unemployment benefits and study widening the authority of a quasi-parliamentary advisory council. [*]
While hundreds of demonstrators blocked roads near the port, hundreds more were at the main Globe Roundabout, angry after police opened fire on Sunday at protesters demanding political reforms, jobs and better pay.
Graffiti scrawled on a statue said: "The people are hungry." Another message read: "No to oppression of the people."
Nearby, sidewalks were smashed and office windows broken. Troops deployed around the town but were not intervening to disperse protesters, who pushed back four army vehicles observing the scene near the port.
"There are no jobs, there's no freedom of opinion. The people are tired and people want money. People want to end corruption," said Ali al-Mazroui, 30, who is unemployed.
LOOTING IN SOHAR
In Sohar, looters rushed in to scavenge a smoldering supermarket set alight by protesters who on Sunday also stormed and burned a main police station and set two government buildings ablaze.
One woman stacked up singed cartons of eggs, powdered milk, orange juice and cream cheese in the store, while others walked over shattered glass out the door pushing trolleys loaded with food as security forces were absent.
"There is no security. I want to live. It's normal," said 28-year-old Youssef, who is unemployed, as he left the market carrying 10 bottles of juice.[*]
Protests in Oman have so far demanded political reforms, more jobs, better pay and an end to corruption but have stopped short of calling for regime change.
Sultan Qaboos, who exercises absolute power in a country where political parties are banned, shuffled his cabinet on Saturday, a week after a small protest in the capital Muscat gave the first hint that Arab discontent could reach Oman.
The government, under pressure over its response to the Sohar protests, pledged on Sunday to create 50,000 more public sector jobs and hand out unemployment benefits of $390 a month.
Mostly wealthy Gulf Arab countries have stepped up reforms to appease their populations following popular unrest that toppled the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt and is threatening Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's grip on power. [*]
Oman is a non-OPEC oil exporter which pumps around 850,000 bpd, and has strong military and political ties to Washington.
Sultan Qaboos appoints the cabinet and in 1992 introduced an elected advisory Shura Council. Protesters have demanded the council be given legislative powers and on Sunday Qaboos ordered a committee to study increasing its authority. [*]

Posted by Kent Bolton at 07:01 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/world/africa/01unrest.html
February 28, 2011
Libya Blames Islamic Militants and the West for Unrest
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and KAREEM FAHIM [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [followup] [watch and wait] [*]
TRIPOLI, Libya — In the face of a mounting international outcry for the ouster of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and sanctions to force him out, the Libyan authorities blamed Islamic radicals and the West on Monday for a conspiracy to cause chaos and take over the country. [*]
At the same time, there were new reports of fighting with the rebels claiming that they had shot down a military aircraft on Monday as they repulsed a government bid to take back Libya’s third city, Misurata, 125 miles east of Tripoli. There, as in Zawiyah, 30 miles to the west, government forces seem to have encircled rebels but have been unable to dislodge

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/world/africa/01unrest.html
February 28, 2011
Libya Blames Islamic Militants and the West for Unrest
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and KAREEM FAHIM [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [followup] [watch and wait] [*]
TRIPOLI, Libya — In the face of a mounting international outcry for the ouster of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and sanctions to force him out, the Libyan authorities blamed Islamic radicals and the West on Monday for a conspiracy to cause chaos and take over the country. [*]
At the same time, there were new reports of fighting with the rebels claiming that they had shot down a military aircraft on Monday as they repulsed a government bid to take back Libya’s third city, Misurata, 125 miles east of Tripoli. There, as in Zawiyah, 30 miles to the west, government forces seem to have encircled rebels but have been unable to dislodge them.
The increasingly tense standoff has prompted a huge exodus of poorly-paid contract workers streaming to Libya’s borders with Tunisia and Egypt. The United Nations refugee agency called the situation a humanitarian emergency as workers hefting suit-cases of possessions stood in long lines to leave Libya, many of them uncertain how they would finally get home.[*]
At a news conference for foreign journalists invited to Tripoli, a government spokesman, Musa Ibrahim, denied reports that Colonel Qaddafi’s loyalists had turned their guns on hundreds of civilians. “No massacres, no bombardments, no reckless violence against civilians,” he said, comparing Libya’s situation to that of Iraq before the American-led invasion in 2003.
But his words seemed unlikely to stem a growing chorus of international voices calling on Colonel Qaddafi to leave power. [*]The French prime minister, François Fillon, told the RTL broadcaster that the French government was studying “all solutions to make it so that Colonel Qaddafi understands that he should go, that he should leave power.”
British Prime Minister David Cameron also declared: “It’s time for Colonel Qaddafi to go.”
The European Union will adopt sanctions on Libya later on Monday, said Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, including “an embargo on equipment which might be used for internal repression” and other limits on the assets of the Libyan government, news agencies reported. Meanwhile, Germany, acting on its own, offered a proposal to cut off all financial payments to Libya for 60 days, Reuters said.
As the financial noose appeared set to tighten further around Colonel Qaddafi and his government, Libya had brought 130 foreign journalists to Tripoli to show that the loyalists had nothing to hide, the spokesman said. The visit came a day after defecting officers in the east of the vast, desert nation took steps to establish a unified command while their followers in the rebel-held city of Zawiyah, just outside the leader’s stronghold in the capital, displayed tanks, Kalashnikovs and antiaircraft guns.
Mr. Ibrahim said reports of massacres by government troops were analogous to those suggesting that Saddam Hussein had developed unconventional weapons in Iraq, suggesting that they were designed as a reason for military attack.
“The Islamists want chaos; the West also wants chaos,” he said, maintaining the West wanted access to Libya’s oil and the Islamists wanted to establish a bridgehead for international terrorism. “The Iraq example is not a legend — we all lived through it. Doesn’t this remind you of the whole Iraq scenario?” he said.
The Libyan arguments have become familiar as Colonel Qaddafi’s opponents seem to gain ground, and world powers, meeting on Monday in Geneva, seek to increase pressure to force him from power. The focus of the diplomacy is a meeting of the United Nations Human Rights Council, to be attended by leaders including Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Referring to Libya, the head of the human rights body, Navi Pillay, demanded in a speech on Monday that: “The rights of the protesters must be upheld and asylum seekers, migrants and other foreign nationals fleeing the violence must be protected,” news agencies reported.
But Mr. Ibrahim insisted that Libya still sought some kind of gradual political opening as suggested by the colonel’s son, Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi. [*]
“We are not like Egypt or Tunisia,” the spokesman said. “We are a very Bedouin tribal society. People know that and want gradual change.”
Reporters told him that, on Sunday, they had visited Zawiyah, 30 miles from Tripoli, and saw no evidence of Islamist forces. “They knew you were coming,” the spokesman said. “They were hiding those with an obvious Al Qaeda look.” [?] [*]
The news conference came after a day of increasing self-confidence among the rebels, who spoke of tapping revenue from the vast Libyan oil resources now under their control — estimated by some oil company officials to be about 80 percent of the country’s total. And in recognition of the insurrection’s growing power, Italy’s foreign minister on Sunday suspended a nonaggression treaty with Libya on the grounds that the Libyan state “no longer exists,” while Secretary of State Clinton said the United States was reaching out to the rebels to “offer any kind of assistance.”
On Sunday, the most striking display of strength was seen in Zawiyah, one of several cities near the capital controlled by rebels, who have repulsed repeated attempts by Colonel Qaddafi’s forces to retake them. And the arsenal they displayed helped to explain how the rebels held Zawiyah.
“Army, army, army!” excited residents shouted, pointing to a defected soldier standing watch at Zawiyah’s entrance as he raised his machine gun in the air and held up two fingers for victory.
A few yards away a captured antiaircraft gun fired several deafening salutes into the air, and gleeful residents invited newcomers to clamber aboard one of several army tanks now in rebel hands. Residents said that when Colonel Qaddafi’s forces mounted a deadly assault to retake the city last Thursday — shell holes were visible in the central mosque and ammunition littered the central square — local army units switched sides to join the rebels, as about 2,000 police officers had done the week before.
And on Sunday, scores of residents armed with machine guns and rifles joined in a chant that has become the slogan of pro-democracy uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and across the Arab world: “The people want to bring down the regime!”
The opposition’s display came as a global effort to isolate Colonel Qaddafi and possibly force his resignation gained momentum over the weekend, with the United Nations Security Council moving to impose punitive financial sanctions and NATO allies discussing steps that included a possible no-fly zone over Libya.
But with their increasing firepower, the rebels appeared to break the pattern of nonviolent revolts set by neighboring Egypt and Tunisia and now sweeping the Middle East — just as Colonel Qaddafi has shown a willingness to shed far more of his citizens’ blood than any of the region’s other autocrats.
The maneuverings by both sides suggested they were girding for a confrontation that could influence the shape of other protest movements and the responses of other rulers who feel threatened by insurrections. Colonel Qaddafi’s militias, plainclothes police and other paramilitary forces have kept the deserted streets of Tripoli under a lockdown.
And residents of Zawiyah said Sunday that his forces were massing again on its outskirts. As a caravan of visiting journalists left Zawiyah, a crowd of hundreds of Qaddafi supporters waving green flags and holding Qaddafi posters blocked the highway for a rally against the rebels. “The people want Colonel Muammar!” some chanted.
In interviews with ABC News, two of Colonel Qaddafi’s sons appeared to mix defiance and denial. “The people — everybody wants more,” said Saadi el-Qaddafi, apparently dismissing the public outcry for a more accountable government. “There is no limit. You give this, then you get asked for that, you know?” [?] [*]
He described the uprisings around the region as “an earthquake” and predicted, “Chaos will be everywhere.” If his father left, he said, Libya would face a civil war “one hour later.”
His brother Seif seemed to challenge journalists to look for signs of unrest. “Please, take your cameras tomorrow morning, even tonight,” he said. “Everything is calm. Everything is peaceful.”
But when government-paid drivers and minders took visiting journalists on an official tour to visit here Sunday morning, they found a town firmly in rebel hands, where Libyan officials and military units did not even try to enter. It was the second consecutive day that an official tour appeared to do more to discredit than bolster the government’s line, and questions arose about the true allegiance of the official tour minders, who appeared to mingle easily with people of rebel-held Zawiyah. Some suggested that the Qaddafi government might in fact have believed its own propaganda: that the journalists would discover in Zawiyah radical Islamists or young people crazed by drugs supplied by Osama bin Laden.
But the residents showed little interest in Islamist politics or hallucinogenic drugs. They mocked Colonel Qaddafi’s allegations, painted the tricolored pre-Qaddafi flag that has become the banner of the revolt on the side of a burned-out government building, and chanted, “Free, free, Libya.”
Several said that on Thursday morning the Qaddafi forces had blasted peaceful protesters gathered in the square with machine guns and artillery, pointing to holes in the sides of pillars and even a mosque. They showed journalists seven fresh graves dug in the square to bury those killed in the fight.
But the battle had made them even more confident of their power, they said, because military units had joined their cause instead of fighting against them. They said the city was now under the control of a committee of prominent citizens — doctors, lawyers, judges, engineers and the like — who were organizing its public services and continued defense. In Benghazi, the eastern city where the revolt began, rebels said that Libyan soldiers had joined the rebels in securing vital oil industry facilities around that part of the country. Some oil industry workers fleeing across the Tunisian border in recent days said they had seen Libyan soldiers fire their weapons to drive off foreign mercenaries or other security forces who had approached oil facilities not far from here.
Hassan Bulifa, who sits on the management committee of the Arabian Gulf Oil Company, the country’s largest oil producer, said that the rebels control at least 80 percent of the country’s oil assets, and that his company, based in Benghazi, was cooperating with them. The company resumed oil shipments on Sunday, loading two tankers at a port in Tobruk, Mr. Bulifa said. The ships — one bound for Austria and the other for China — represented the company’s first shipments since Feb. 10.
Although the revenue from those sales goes the company’s umbrella organization, Libya’s National Oil Company, Mr. Bulifa said Arabian Gulf Oil had ceased any coordination with the national company, though it was honoring oil contracts. And he insisted the proceeds would ultimately flow to the rebels, not Colonel Qaddafi. “Qaddafi and his gangsters will not have a hand on them,” he said. “We are not worried about the revenues.”
David D. Kirkpatrick reported from Tripoli, Libya, and Kareem Fahim from Benghazi.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 07:00 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/world/africa/01unrest.html
February 28, 2011
Libya Blames Islamic Militants and the West for Unrest
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and KAREEM FAHIM [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [followup] [watch and wait] [*]
TRIPOLI, Libya — In the face of a mounting international outcry for the ouster of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and sanctions to force him out, the Libyan authorities blamed Islamic radicals and the West on Monday for a conspiracy to cause chaos and take over the country. [*]
At the same time, there were new reports of fighting with the rebels claiming that they had shot down a military aircraft on Monday as they repulsed a government bid to take back Libya’s third city, Misurata, 125 miles east of Tripoli. There, as in Zawiyah, 30 miles to the west, government forces seem to have encircled rebels but have been unable to dislodge

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/world/africa/01unrest.html
February 28, 2011
Libya Blames Islamic Militants and the West for Unrest
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and KAREEM FAHIM [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [followup] [watch and wait] [*]
TRIPOLI, Libya — In the face of a mounting international outcry for the ouster of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and sanctions to force him out, the Libyan authorities blamed Islamic radicals and the West on Monday for a conspiracy to cause chaos and take over the country. [*]
At the same time, there were new reports of fighting with the rebels claiming that they had shot down a military aircraft on Monday as they repulsed a government bid to take back Libya’s third city, Misurata, 125 miles east of Tripoli. There, as in Zawiyah, 30 miles to the west, government forces seem to have encircled rebels but have been unable to dislodge them.
The increasingly tense standoff has prompted a huge exodus of poorly-paid contract workers streaming to Libya’s borders with Tunisia and Egypt. The United Nations refugee agency called the situation a humanitarian emergency as workers hefting suit-cases of possessions stood in long lines to leave Libya, many of them uncertain how they would finally get home.[*]
At a news conference for foreign journalists invited to Tripoli, a government spokesman, Musa Ibrahim, denied reports that Colonel Qaddafi’s loyalists had turned their guns on hundreds of civilians. “No massacres, no bombardments, no reckless violence against civilians,” he said, comparing Libya’s situation to that of Iraq before the American-led invasion in 2003.
But his words seemed unlikely to stem a growing chorus of international voices calling on Colonel Qaddafi to leave power. [*]The French prime minister, François Fillon, told the RTL broadcaster that the French government was studying “all solutions to make it so that Colonel Qaddafi understands that he should go, that he should leave power.”
British Prime Minister David Cameron also declared: “It’s time for Colonel Qaddafi to go.”
The European Union will adopt sanctions on Libya later on Monday, said Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, including “an embargo on equipment which might be used for internal repression” and other limits on the assets of the Libyan government, news agencies reported. Meanwhile, Germany, acting on its own, offered a proposal to cut off all financial payments to Libya for 60 days, Reuters said.
As the financial noose appeared set to tighten further around Colonel Qaddafi and his government, Libya had brought 130 foreign journalists to Tripoli to show that the loyalists had nothing to hide, the spokesman said. The visit came a day after defecting officers in the east of the vast, desert nation took steps to establish a unified command while their followers in the rebel-held city of Zawiyah, just outside the leader’s stronghold in the capital, displayed tanks, Kalashnikovs and antiaircraft guns.
Mr. Ibrahim said reports of massacres by government troops were analogous to those suggesting that Saddam Hussein had developed unconventional weapons in Iraq, suggesting that they were designed as a reason for military attack.
“The Islamists want chaos; the West also wants chaos,” he said, maintaining the West wanted access to Libya’s oil and the Islamists wanted to establish a bridgehead for international terrorism. “The Iraq example is not a legend — we all lived through it. Doesn’t this remind you of the whole Iraq scenario?” he said.
The Libyan arguments have become familiar as Colonel Qaddafi’s opponents seem to gain ground, and world powers, meeting on Monday in Geneva, seek to increase pressure to force him from power. The focus of the diplomacy is a meeting of the United Nations Human Rights Council, to be attended by leaders including Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Referring to Libya, the head of the human rights body, Navi Pillay, demanded in a speech on Monday that: “The rights of the protesters must be upheld and asylum seekers, migrants and other foreign nationals fleeing the violence must be protected,” news agencies reported.
But Mr. Ibrahim insisted that Libya still sought some kind of gradual political opening as suggested by the colonel’s son, Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi. [*]
“We are not like Egypt or Tunisia,” the spokesman said. “We are a very Bedouin tribal society. People know that and want gradual change.”
Reporters told him that, on Sunday, they had visited Zawiyah, 30 miles from Tripoli, and saw no evidence of Islamist forces. “They knew you were coming,” the spokesman said. “They were hiding those with an obvious Al Qaeda look.” [?] [*]
The news conference came after a day of increasing self-confidence among the rebels, who spoke of tapping revenue from the vast Libyan oil resources now under their control — estimated by some oil company officials to be about 80 percent of the country’s total. And in recognition of the insurrection’s growing power, Italy’s foreign minister on Sunday suspended a nonaggression treaty with Libya on the grounds that the Libyan state “no longer exists,” while Secretary of State Clinton said the United States was reaching out to the rebels to “offer any kind of assistance.”
On Sunday, the most striking display of strength was seen in Zawiyah, one of several cities near the capital controlled by rebels, who have repulsed repeated attempts by Colonel Qaddafi’s forces to retake them. And the arsenal they displayed helped to explain how the rebels held Zawiyah.
“Army, army, army!” excited residents shouted, pointing to a defected soldier standing watch at Zawiyah’s entrance as he raised his machine gun in the air and held up two fingers for victory.
A few yards away a captured antiaircraft gun fired several deafening salutes into the air, and gleeful residents invited newcomers to clamber aboard one of several army tanks now in rebel hands. Residents said that when Colonel Qaddafi’s forces mounted a deadly assault to retake the city last Thursday — shell holes were visible in the central mosque and ammunition littered the central square — local army units switched sides to join the rebels, as about 2,000 police officers had done the week before.
And on Sunday, scores of residents armed with machine guns and rifles joined in a chant that has become the slogan of pro-democracy uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and across the Arab world: “The people want to bring down the regime!”
The opposition’s display came as a global effort to isolate Colonel Qaddafi and possibly force his resignation gained momentum over the weekend, with the United Nations Security Council moving to impose punitive financial sanctions and NATO allies discussing steps that included a possible no-fly zone over Libya.
But with their increasing firepower, the rebels appeared to break the pattern of nonviolent revolts set by neighboring Egypt and Tunisia and now sweeping the Middle East — just as Colonel Qaddafi has shown a willingness to shed far more of his citizens’ blood than any of the region’s other autocrats.
The maneuverings by both sides suggested they were girding for a confrontation that could influence the shape of other protest movements and the responses of other rulers who feel threatened by insurrections. Colonel Qaddafi’s militias, plainclothes police and other paramilitary forces have kept the deserted streets of Tripoli under a lockdown.
And residents of Zawiyah said Sunday that his forces were massing again on its outskirts. As a caravan of visiting journalists left Zawiyah, a crowd of hundreds of Qaddafi supporters waving green flags and holding Qaddafi posters blocked the highway for a rally against the rebels. “The people want Colonel Muammar!” some chanted.
In interviews with ABC News, two of Colonel Qaddafi’s sons appeared to mix defiance and denial. “The people — everybody wants more,” said Saadi el-Qaddafi, apparently dismissing the public outcry for a more accountable government. “There is no limit. You give this, then you get asked for that, you know?” [?] [*]
He described the uprisings around the region as “an earthquake” and predicted, “Chaos will be everywhere.” If his father left, he said, Libya would face a civil war “one hour later.”
His brother Seif seemed to challenge journalists to look for signs of unrest. “Please, take your cameras tomorrow morning, even tonight,” he said. “Everything is calm. Everything is peaceful.”
But when government-paid drivers and minders took visiting journalists on an official tour to visit here Sunday morning, they found a town firmly in rebel hands, where Libyan officials and military units did not even try to enter. It was the second consecutive day that an official tour appeared to do more to discredit than bolster the government’s line, and questions arose about the true allegiance of the official tour minders, who appeared to mingle easily with people of rebel-held Zawiyah. Some suggested that the Qaddafi government might in fact have believed its own propaganda: that the journalists would discover in Zawiyah radical Islamists or young people crazed by drugs supplied by Osama bin Laden.
But the residents showed little interest in Islamist politics or hallucinogenic drugs. They mocked Colonel Qaddafi’s allegations, painted the tricolored pre-Qaddafi flag that has become the banner of the revolt on the side of a burned-out government building, and chanted, “Free, free, Libya.”
Several said that on Thursday morning the Qaddafi forces had blasted peaceful protesters gathered in the square with machine guns and artillery, pointing to holes in the sides of pillars and even a mosque. They showed journalists seven fresh graves dug in the square to bury those killed in the fight.
But the battle had made them even more confident of their power, they said, because military units had joined their cause instead of fighting against them. They said the city was now under the control of a committee of prominent citizens — doctors, lawyers, judges, engineers and the like — who were organizing its public services and continued defense. In Benghazi, the eastern city where the revolt began, rebels said that Libyan soldiers had joined the rebels in securing vital oil industry facilities around that part of the country. Some oil industry workers fleeing across the Tunisian border in recent days said they had seen Libyan soldiers fire their weapons to drive off foreign mercenaries or other security forces who had approached oil facilities not far from here.
Hassan Bulifa, who sits on the management committee of the Arabian Gulf Oil Company, the country’s largest oil producer, said that the rebels control at least 80 percent of the country’s oil assets, and that his company, based in Benghazi, was cooperating with them. The company resumed oil shipments on Sunday, loading two tankers at a port in Tobruk, Mr. Bulifa said. The ships — one bound for Austria and the other for China — represented the company’s first shipments since Feb. 10.
Although the revenue from those sales goes the company’s umbrella organization, Libya’s National Oil Company, Mr. Bulifa said Arabian Gulf Oil had ceased any coordination with the national company, though it was honoring oil contracts. And he insisted the proceeds would ultimately flow to the rebels, not Colonel Qaddafi. “Qaddafi and his gangsters will not have a hand on them,” he said. “We are not worried about the revenues.”
David D. Kirkpatrick reported from Tripoli, Libya, and Kareem Fahim from Benghazi.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 06:59 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/28/world/africa/28unrest.html
February 27, 2011
Rebels in Libya Gain Power and Defectors
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and KAREEM FAHIM [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [followup] [watch and wait] [*]
ZAWIYAH, Libya — The Libyan rebels challenging Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi demonstrated their increasing military coordination and firepower on Sunday, as defecting officers in the east took steps to establish a unified command while their followers in this rebel-held city, just outside the leader’s stronghold in the capital, displayed tanks, Kalashnikovs and antiaircraft guns.
In a further sign of their strength, the rebels also talked about tapping revenue from the vast Libyan oil resources now under their control — estimated by some oil company officials to be

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/28/world/africa/28unrest.html
February 27, 2011
Rebels in Libya Gain Power and Defectors
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and KAREEM FAHIM [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [followup] [watch and wait] [*]
ZAWIYAH, Libya — The Libyan rebels challenging Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi demonstrated their increasing military coordination and firepower on Sunday, as defecting officers in the east took steps to establish a unified command while their followers in this rebel-held city, just outside the leader’s stronghold in the capital, displayed tanks, Kalashnikovs and antiaircraft guns.
In a further sign of their strength, the rebels also talked about tapping revenue from the vast Libyan oil resources now under their control — estimated by some oil company officials to be about 80 percent of the country’s total. And in recognition of the insurrection’s growing power, [*]Italy’s foreign minister suspended a nonaggression treaty with Libya on the grounds that the Libyan state “no longer exists.” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the United States was reaching out to the rebels to “offer any kind of assistance.”
The most striking display of strength was seen here, 30 miles from Colonel Qaddafi’s Tripoli redoubt. Zawiyah is one of several cities near the capital controlled by rebels, who have repulsed repeated attempts by Colonel Qaddafi’s forces to retake them. And the arsenal they displayed helped to explain how the rebels held Zawiyah.
“Army, army, army!” excited residents shouted, pointing to a defected soldier standing watch at Zawiyah’s entrance as he raised his machine gun in the air and held up two fingers for victory.
A few yards away a captured antiaircraft gun fired several deafening salutes into the air, and gleeful residents invited newcomers to clamber aboard one of several army tanks now in rebel hands. Residents said that when Colonel Qaddafi’s forces mounted a deadly assault to retake the city last Thursday — shell holes were visible in the central mosque and ammunition littered the central square — local army units switched sides to join the rebels, as about 2,000 police officers had done the week before.
And on Sunday, scores of residents armed with machine guns and rifles joined in a chant that has become the slogan of pro-democracy uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and across the Arab world: “The people want to bring down the regime!” [*]
The opposition’s display came as a global effort to isolate Colonel Qaddafi and possibly force his resignation gained momentum over the weekend, with the United Nations Security Council moving to impose punitive financial sanctions and NATO allies discussing steps that included a possible no-fly zone over Libya. [*]
But with their increasing firepower, the rebels appeared to break the pattern of nonviolent revolts set by neighboring Egypt and Tunisia and now sweeping the Middle East — just as Colonel Qaddafi has shown a willingness to shed far more of his citizens’ blood than any of the region’s other autocrats.
The maneuverings by both sides suggested they were girding for a confrontation that could influence the shape of other protest movements and the responses of other rulers who feel threatened by insurrections. Colonel Qaddafi’s militias, plainclothes police and other paramilitary forces have kept the deserted streets of Tripoli under a lockdown. [*]
And residents of Zawiyah said Sunday that his forces were massing again on its outskirts. As a caravan of visiting journalists left Zawiyah, a crowd of hundreds of Qaddafi supporters waving green flags and holding Qaddafi posters blocked the highway for a rally against the rebels. “The people want Colonel Muammar!” some chanted. [this has to come to a head soon?] [*]
In interviews with ABC News, two of Colonel Qaddafi’s sons appeared to mix defiance and denial. “The people — everybody wants more,” said Saadi el-Qaddafi, apparently dismissing the public outcry for a more accountable government. “There is no limit. You give this, then you get asked for that, you know?”
He described the uprisings around the region as “an earthquake” and predicted, “Chaos will be everywhere.” If his father left, he said, Libya would face a civil war “one hour later.”[*]
His brother Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi seemed to challenge journalists to look for signs of unrest. “Please, take your cameras tomorrow morning, even tonight,” he said. “Everything is calm. Everything is peaceful.” [*]
But when government-paid drivers and minders took visiting journalists on an official tour to visit here Sunday morning, they found a town firmly in rebel hands, where Libyan officials and military units did not even try to enter. It was the second consecutive day that an official tour appeared to do more to discredit than bolster the government’s line, [*]and questions arose about the true allegiance of the official tour minders, who appeared to mingle easily with people of rebel-held Zawiyah. Some suggested that the Qaddafi government might in fact have believed its own propaganda: that the journalists would discover in Zawiyah radical Islamists or young people crazed by drugs supplied by Osama bin Laden.
But the residents showed little interest in Islamist politics or hallucinogenic drugs. They mocked Colonel Qaddafi’s allegations, painted the tricolored pre-Qaddafi flag that has become the banner of the revolt on the side of a burned-out government building, and chanted, “Free, free, Libya.”
Several said that on Thursday morning the Qaddafi forces had blasted peaceful protesters gathered in the square with machine guns and artillery, pointing to holes in the sides of pillars and even a mosque. They showed journalists seven fresh graves dug in the square to bury those killed in the fight.
But the battle had made them even more confident of their power, they said, because military units had joined their cause instead of fighting against them. Some said that in the fights against Italian occupation and other battles in Libya’s pre-Qaddafi history, their city of 300,000 had earned the nickname “the silent lion,” and was living up to it again. “When Qaddafi killed people, Zawiyah became like a volcano,” said Tariq Mohamed, a resident.
They said the city was now under the control of a committee of prominent citizens — doctors, lawyers, judges, engineers and the like — who were organizing its public services and continued defense. “We are a very patient people,” said Ahmed el-Hadi Remeh, an engineer standing in the square. “We kept silent for 42 years, and when we do start to speak, he shoots us with a 14.5 millimeter.”
In Benghazi, the eastern city where the revolt began, rebels said that Libyan soldiers had joined the rebels in securing vital oil industry facilities around that part of the country. Some oil industry workers fleeing across the Tunisian border in recent days said they had seen Libyan soldiers fire their weapons to drive off foreign mercenaries or other security forces who had approached oil facilities not far from here. [*]
Hassan Bulifa, who sits on the management committee of the Arabian Gulf Oil Company, the country’s largest oil producer, said that the rebels control at least 80 percent of the country’s oil assets, and that his company, based in Benghazi, was cooperating with them. The company resumed oil shipments on Sunday, loading two tankers at a port in Tobruk, Mr. Bulifa said. The ships — one bound for Austria and the other for China — represented the company’s first shipments since Feb. 10.
Although the revenue from those sales goes the company’s umbrella organization, Libya’s National Oil Company, Mr. Bulifa said Arabian Gulf Oil had ceased any coordination with the national company, though it was honoring oil contracts. And he insisted the proceeds would ultimately flow to the rebels, not Colonel Qaddafi. “Qaddafi and his gangsters will not have a hand on them,” he said. “We are not worried about the revenues.”
Some in Washington, including Senator John McCain, the ranking Republican on the Armed Services Committee, urged the Obama administration to consider military action and recognize a rebel government. But the rebels themselves seemed far from ready for international relations.
On Saturday, the country’s former justice minister, Mustafa Mohamed Abd al-Jalil, said in an interview on Al Jazeera that he would head a transitional government, with the aim of holding elections within three months. But on Sunday, another figure in the rebel movement, Abdel-Hafidh Ghoga, seemed to dismiss that claim, saying a national council had been formed to manage the “day-to-day living” of the “liberated” territories.
The Qaddafi government implicitly acknowledged for the first time on Sunday that it feared elements of its military falling into rebel hands, as Colonel Qaddafi’s son Seif said in the television interview that the Libyan government had bombed its own ammunition depots in the east.
And Gen. Ahmed el-Gatrani, a former senior commander who now leads the rebel forces, said his troops were awaiting a call for support from the capital. “Our brothers in Tripoli say: ‘We are fine so far, we do not need help.’ If they ask for help we are ready to move,” he told Reuters. Many rebels in the west, however, said they believed General Gatrani was trying to hide the true rebel plans. Mr. Ghoga, for his part, vowed Sunday that Tripoli and other Libyan cities would be liberated using “our national army.”
David D. Kirkpatrick reported from Zawiyah, and Kareem Fahim from Benghazi, Libya

Posted by Kent Bolton at 06:58 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/28/world/middleeast/28qaeda.html
February 27, 2011
As Regimes Fall in Arab World, Al Qaeda Sees History Fly By
By SCOTT SHANE [jihadis] [hydra] [Islamic culture in its northern Africa iteration, Arabia, and Central-South Asia] [also al Qaeda affiliates] [from American IC perspective, the trail has grown cold since 2003?] [they are probably in different spots] [radical Islam and global jihadism] [speculation that al Qaeda was caught flatfooted by this democratization movement, if that’s what it is] [clearly, democracy is antithetical to their aims] [use psci 469] [*]
For nearly two decades, the leaders of Al Qaeda have denounced the Arab world’s dictators as heretics and puppets of the West and called for their downfall. [usually al Qaeda’s “Near Enemy”] [*] Now, people in country after country have risen to topple their leaders — and Al Qaeda has played absolutely no role. [not only that but there’s a real chance they are being boxed out of a future?] [*]
In fact, the motley opposition movements that have appeared so suddenly and proved so

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/28/world/middleeast/28qaeda.html
February 27, 2011
As Regimes Fall in Arab World, Al Qaeda Sees History Fly By
By SCOTT SHANE [jihadis] [hydra] [Islamic culture in its northern Africa iteration, Arabia, and Central-South Asia] [also al Qaeda affiliates] [from American IC perspective, the trail has grown cold since 2003?] [they are probably in different spots] [radical Islam and global jihadism] [speculation that al Qaeda was caught flatfooted by this democratization movement, if that’s what it is] [clearly, democracy is antithetical to their aims] [use psci 469] [*]
For nearly two decades, the leaders of Al Qaeda have denounced the Arab world’s dictators as heretics and puppets of the West and called for their downfall. [usually al Qaeda’s “Near Enemy”] [*] Now, people in country after country have risen to topple their leaders — and Al Qaeda has played absolutely no role. [not only that but there’s a real chance they are being boxed out of a future?] [*]
In fact, the motley opposition movements that have appeared so suddenly and proved so powerful have shunned the two central tenets of the Qaeda credo: murderous violence and religious fanaticism. The demonstrators have used force defensively, treated Islam as an afterthought and embraced democracy, which is anathema to Osama bin Laden and his followers. [*]
So for Al Qaeda — and perhaps no less for the American policies that have been built around the threat it poses — the democratic revolutions that have gripped the world’s attention present a crossroads. Will the terrorist network shrivel slowly to irrelevance? Or will it find a way to exploit the chaos produced by political upheaval and the disappointment that will inevitably follow hopes now raised so high?
For many specialists on terrorism and the Middle East, though not all, the past few weeks have the makings of an epochal disaster for Al Qaeda, making the jihadists look like ineffectual bystanders to history while offering young Muslims an appealing alternative to terrorism. [*]
“So far — and I emphasize so far — the score card looks pretty terrible for Al Qaeda,” [*]said Paul R. Pillar, who studied terrorism and the Middle East for nearly three decades at the C.I.A. and is now at Georgetown University. “Democracy is bad news for terrorists. The more peaceful channels people have to express grievances and pursue their goals, the less likely they are to turn to violence.” [Pillar former IC officer who accussed Bush administration of “cherry picking” intel] [*]
If the terrorists network’s leaders hope to seize the moment, they have been slow off the mark. Mr. bin Laden has been silent. His Egyptian deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, has issued three rambling statements from his presumed hide-out in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region that seemed oddly out of sync with the news, not noting the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, whose government detained and tortured Mr. Zawahri in the 1980s. [*]
“Knocking off Mubarak has been Zawahri’s goal for more than 20 years, and he was unable to achieve it,” said Brian Fishman, a terrorism expert at the New America Foundation. “Now a nonviolent, nonreligious, pro-democracy movement got rid of him in a matter of weeks. It’s a major problem for Al Qaeda.”
The Arab revolutions, of course, remain very much a work in progress, as the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, orders a bloody defense of Tripoli, and Yemen’s president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, negotiates to cling to power. The breakdown of order could create havens for terrorist cells, at least for a time — a hazard both Colonel Qaddafi and Mr. Saleh have prevented, winning the gratitude of the American government. [*]
“There’s an operational advantage for militants in any place where law enforcement and domestic security are weak and distracted,” said Steven Simon, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and co-author of “The Age of Sacred Terror.” But over all, he said, developments in the Arab countries are a strategic defeat for violent jihadism.
“These uprisings have shown that the new generation is not terribly interested in Al Qaeda’s ideology,” [*]Mr. Simon said. He called the Zawahri statements “forlorn, if not pathetic.”
There is evidence that the uprisings have enthralled some jihadists. One Algerian man associated with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, the network’s North African affiliate, welcomed the uprisings in a weekend interview and said militants were returning from exile to join the battle in Libya, arming themselves from government weapons caches. [al Qaeda could be losing fighters to Jasmine] [*]
“Since the land is in chaos and Qaddafi is helping through his reactions and actions to increase the hatred of the population against him, it will be easier for us to recruit new members,” said the Algerian man, who uses the nom de guerre Abu Salman. He said that Libyans and Tunisians who had fought in Iraq or Afghanistan were now considering a return home.
“There is lots of work to do,” he said. “We have to help the people fighting and then build an Islamic state.”
Abu Khaled, a Jordanian jihadist who fought in Iraq with the insurgent leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, suggested that Al Qaeda would benefit in the long run from dashed hopes. [?] [*]
“At the end of the day, how much change will there really be in Egypt and other countries?” he asked. “There will be many disappointed demonstrators, and that’s when they will realize what the only alternative is. We are certain that this will all play into our hands.”
Michael Scheuer, author of a new biography of Mr. bin Laden and head of the C.I.A.’s bin Laden unit in the late 1990s, thinks such enthusiasm is more than wishful thinking.
Mr. Scheuer says he believes that Americans, including many experts, have wildly misjudged the uprisings by focusing on the secular, English-speaking, Westernized protesters who are a natural draw for television. Thousands of Islamists have been released from prisons in Egypt alone, and the ouster of Al Qaeda’s enemy, Mr. Mubarak, will help revitalize every stripe of Islamism, including that of Al Qaeda and its allies, he said.
“The talent of an organization is not just leadership, but taking advantage of opportunities,” Mr. Scheuer said. In Al Qaeda and its allies, he said, “We’re looking over all at a more geographically widespread, probably numerically bigger and certainly more influential movement than in 2001.”
If Al Qaeda faces an uncertain moment, so does the Obama administration. For a decade, the United States has been preoccupied with the Muslim world as a source of terrorist violence — one reason both the Bush and Obama administrations had friendly relations with the authoritarian governments now under fire. [*]
It was such a dominant theme of American policy that even Colonel Qaddafi, the quixotic and brutal Libyan leader who President Obama said Saturday should step down, had drawn American praise as a bulwark against jihadists. A cable from the American Embassy in Tripoli briefing Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice before a 2008 visit called Libya “a strong partner in the war against terrorism,” noting “excellent” intelligence cooperation and specifically lauding Colonel Qaddafi’s efforts to block the return of Libyan militants from Afghanistan and Iraq and to “blunt the ideological appeal of radical Islam.” [*]
Such perceived dividends of cooperation with the likes of Colonel Qaddafi are now history, and that is a point not lost on the C.I.A., the State Department and the White House. As during the United States’ halting adjustment to the fall of Communist governments from 1989 to 1991, officials are scrambling to balance day-to-day crisis management with consideration of how American policy must adjust for the long term.
“There has to be a major rethinking of how the U.S. engages with that part of the world,” said Christopher Boucek, who studies the Middle East at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “We have to make clear that our security no longer comes at the expense of poor governance and no rights for the people in those countries.
“All of the givens,” Mr. Boucek said, “are gone.”
Souad Mekhennet contributed reporting from Islamabad, Pakistan.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 06:57 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/02/27/preparing-for-all-eventualities-demands-more-than-just-cuts-to-the-military/
Commentary
[Accessed 2/27/11 9:56:42 AM] [*]
Contentions
Preparing for All Eventualities Demands More Than Just Cuts to the Military
Max Boot 02.27.2011 - 9:03 AM [this is second Max Boot piece in a few days] [I don’t normally archive much of his stuff—on occasion] [but he’s a neoconservative with Council on Foreign Relations] [CFR was once the base of the Cold War consensus] [so it’s noteworthy when somebody who represents neoconservatives inside CFR writes on democratization and cutting budgets] [Secretary Gates seems to be focused on his final substantive task at Pentagon: restructure force and procurement] [Gates cares little about his political future so he knows he can do what he thinks is right and leave] [here, Boot is assessing the process] [use psci 355-455] [*]
News coverage of Defense Secretary Bob Gates’s speech at West Point — his last to cadets while in office, he said — gives a misleading picture of what he said. Typical is the New York

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/02/27/preparing-for-all-eventualities-demands-more-than-just-cuts-to-the-military/
Commentary
[Accessed 2/27/11 9:56:42 AM] [*]
Contentions
Preparing for All Eventualities Demands More Than Just Cuts to the Military
Max Boot 02.27.2011 - 9:03 AM [this is second Max Boot piece in a few days] [I don’t normally archive much of his stuff—on occasion] [but he’s a neoconservative with Council on Foreign Relations] [CFR was once the base of the Cold War consensus] [so it’s noteworthy when somebody who represents neoconservatives inside CFR writes on democratization and cutting budgets] [Secretary Gates seems to be focused on his final substantive task at Pentagon: restructure force and procurement] [Gates cares little about his political future so he knows he can do what he thinks is right and leave] [here, Boot is assessing the process] [use psci 355-455] [*]
News coverage of Defense Secretary Bob Gates’s speech at West Point — his last to cadets while in office, he said — gives a misleading picture of what he said. Typical is the New York Times article, which begins:
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates bluntly told an audience of West Point cadets on Friday that it would be unwise for the United States to ever fight another war like Iraq or Afghanistan, and that the chances of carrying out a change of government in that fashion again were slim.
“In my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should ‘have his head examined,’ as General MacArthur so delicately put it,” Mr. Gates told an assembly of Army cadets here.
Read as a stand-alone quote, this could easily be taken to mean that Gates wants to get out of the counterinsurgency and nation-building business and go back to practicing tank-on-tank battles against a mirror-image foe. That is precisely what some army traditionalists would prefer, but it’s not what the defense chief was suggesting. [*]While he acknowledged that the “need for heavy armor and firepower to survive, close with, and destroy the enemy will always be there,” in the future, he argued, the army must “confront the reality that the most plausible, high-end scenarios for the U.S. military are primarily naval and air engagements — whether in Asia, the Persian Gulf, or elsewhere.” [*]
Instead of suggesting that the Army go heavy and conventional, he said: “The strategic rationale for swift-moving expeditionary forces, be they Army or Marines, airborne infantry or special operations, is self-evident given the likelihood of counterterrorism, rapid reaction, disaster response, or stability or security force assistance missions.” [and this is what I suggested in my comments was a residual of Rumsfeld for which Rummy receives too little credit] [I disliked his arrogance too] [but it doesn’t prevent me from noting some things Rummy did that were smart—reshaping America’s force projection for 21st century—at least he began it] [now Gates has picked up the baton and that probably means it will become role of secretary of state for next many years?] [*] It was in the very next sentence that he uttered the much-quoted line about not fighting major land wars, which could just as easily be taken as an admonition against a Gulf War or a Korean War as against the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Of course, we have heard such warnings before (including from the 1987 movie The Princess Bride!), and nevertheless we continue to get embroiled in such wars by events beyond our control. Who could have predicted on September 10, 2001, that we would shortly be sending troops to Afghanistan? Who can predict where they will have to go next? As Gates himself admitted: “When it comes to predicting the nature and location of our next military engagements, since Vietnam, our record has been perfect. We have never once gotten it right, from the Mayaguez to Grenada, Panama, Somalia, the Balkans, Haiti, Kuwait, Iraq, and more — we had no idea a year before any of these missions that we would be so engaged.”
Given that reality, we have to have an Army capable of dealing with all sorts of scenarios — from major land wars to humanitarian-assistance missions and everything in between. [that’s pure Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz] [and they were right] [and Gates is right to presever with it] [*]Gates offered many good suggestions for improving the quality of our forces, including enhancing language and cultural training and modifying a one-size-fits-all personnel system that drives too many of the most talented performers out of the system. (For more on the need to address these issues, see my 2005 Foreign Affairs article “The Struggle to Transform the Military.”) [apparently, Boot too is thinking of the continuity with Rumsfeld but doesn’t wish to come out and say it] [remember Rumsfeld is unpopular so Boot avoids association] [*]
He did not, however, explain how the Army can keep its full range of capabilities if it loses tens of thousands of soldiers in the future — as envisioned by the administration’s defense plans. That is a glaring omission, and it is an issue that Gates’s successors will have to struggle with, unless by some miracle the administration’s irresponsible cuts in force size are blocked in Congress.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 10:29 AM | Permalink

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/lebanese-protesters-urge-political-system-change-in-beirut-rally-1.346006
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/27/11 10:05:38 AM] [*]
Published 16:50 27.02.11
Lebanese protesters urge political system change in Beirut rally
In wake of unrest sweeping Mideast, some Lebanese protesters chanted the now-familiar refrain of 'The people want to bring down the regime.'
By Reuters Tags: Israel news Lebanon [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [meanwhile, Israel cannot afford to take a liberal view (neoliberalism actually) of democratization] [rather, for Israel the region is a zero-sum game in which Sunni regimes stumble equates directly to Shi’a Iran’s rise in power regionally] [here Israeli media report on neighboring Lebanon (Arab but Shi’a group with connections to Iran, Hezbollah)] [use psci 350, 355-455] [*]
Hundreds of Lebanese protested in the capital Beirut on Sunday against the country's sectarian political system.
Emulating protests that have spread across the Arab world in recent weeks, some Lebanese

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/lebanese-protesters-urge-political-system-change-in-beirut-rally-1.346006
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/27/11 10:05:38 AM] [*]
Published 16:50 27.02.11
Lebanese protesters urge political system change in Beirut rally
In wake of unrest sweeping Mideast, some Lebanese protesters chanted the now-familiar refrain of 'The people want to bring down the regime.'
By Reuters Tags: Israel news Lebanon [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [meanwhile, Israel cannot afford to take a liberal view (neoliberalism actually) of democratization] [rather, for Israel the region is a zero-sum game in which Sunni regimes stumble equates directly to Shi’a Iran’s rise in power regionally] [here Israeli media report on neighboring Lebanon (Arab but Shi’a group with connections to Iran, Hezbollah)] [use psci 350, 355-455] [*]
Hundreds of Lebanese protested in the capital Beirut on Sunday against the country's sectarian political system.
Emulating protests that have spread across the Arab world in recent weeks, some Lebanese protesters chanted the now-familiar refrain of "The people want to bring down the regime." [the regime the people elected?] [how odd] [*]
Lebanon is governed by a delicate power-sharing system to maintain the balance between the country's many sects. It is unlike many other Arab countries where protests have been against rulers who have governed for decades.
"We are here to bring down the sectarian system in Lebanon because it is more of a dictatorial system than dictatorship systems themselves," said protester Rahshan Saglam. [how do they do that without utter chaos?] [Lebanon is a confection the French created out of a little piece of Syria] [it’s a Christian enclave to protect Christians] [as such, it had to balance Sunni Arab with Shi’a Arab with Christian Arab interests] [by definition, it’s sectarian] [positions are held by the various sects to keep equilibrium] [**]
Lebanon suffered a 15-year civil war which ended in 1990 and killed 150,000 people. Major sectarian violence, threatening to tip the country into a new civil war, also broke out in 2008.
The organizers handed out a leaflet saying they demanded a "secular, civil, democratic, socially just and equal state" and called for an increase in the minimum wage and lower prices for basic goods.
A Facebook page about the event showed 2,656 people due to attend the protest but only a few hundred showed up and marched along a route that was a frontline during the civil war. [?] [*]
Lebanon has been without a government since Shi'ite group Hezbollah and its allies toppled the government last month in a dispute over a U.N. backed tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of statesman Rafik al-Hariri. [but that govt was elected] [it’s a parliamentary system where no-confidence votes can collapse the regime] [*]
Popular uprisings have unseated the leaders of Tunisia and Egypt. Libya is the latest Arab country to witness major unrest. Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, in power for four decades, appeared to be losing ground after more than a week of protests.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 10:28 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/report-iran-opposition-leaders-moved-to-safe-house-near-tehran-1.346048
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/27/11 10:06:59 AM] [*]
Published 18:25 27.02.11
Report: Iran opposition leaders moved to 'safe house' near Tehran
Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi had been forced to stay in their homes in the Iranian capital Tehran for over two weeks for calling on supporters to protest against the government. [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [meanwhile, Israel cannot afford to take a liberal view (neoliberalism actually) of democratization] [rather, for Israel the region is a zero-sum game in which Sunni regimes stumble equates directly to Shi’a Iran’s rise in power regionally] [can’t blame them but again it demonstrates why USFP is not identical to Israel’s interests, and policymakers must not behave as if they are one in the same] [*]
By Reuters Tags: Israel news Iran
Two Iranian opposition leaders have been moved secretly from their homes where they had

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/report-iran-opposition-leaders-moved-to-safe-house-near-tehran-1.346048
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/27/11 10:06:59 AM] [*]
Published 18:25 27.02.11
Report: Iran opposition leaders moved to 'safe house' near Tehran
Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi had been forced to stay in their homes in the Iranian capital Tehran for over two weeks for calling on supporters to protest against the government. [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [meanwhile, Israel cannot afford to take a liberal view (neoliberalism actually) of democratization] [rather, for Israel the region is a zero-sum game in which Sunni regimes stumble equates directly to Shi’a Iran’s rise in power regionally] [can’t blame them but again it demonstrates why USFP is not identical to Israel’s interests, and policymakers must not behave as if they are one in the same] [*]
By Reuters Tags: Israel news Iran
Two Iranian opposition leaders have been moved secretly from their homes where they had been under virtual house arrest for calling on supporters to protest against the government, an advocacy group said on Sunday. [so not verfied but likely] [Iran has done similar stuff before] [*]
Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi had been forced to stay in their homes in the Iranian capital Tehran for over two weeks.
Mousavi's daughters said on the Kaleme website that they had been prevented from approaching her father's house since February 14.
The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, which has staff in the United States and Germany, quoted an "informed source" as saying Mousavi and Karoubi, along with their wives, had been moved from their homes to a 'safe house' in an area close to Tehran".
The source said they were physically unharmed and that their new location was not a prison. [*]
There was no official word on their whereabouts.
Opposition website Sahamnews quoted one of Karoubi's neighbors as saying the security guards which had surrounded his house had left. It now looked deserted.
"For the past three days all the apartment lights have been off and no movement has been seen, not even from the security forces," the unidentified neighbor was quoted as saying.
Both men, who spearheaded protests against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election in June 2009, face calls from parliament to be arrested, tried and hanged for what government supporters say is their role in stirring "sedition". [*]
Earlier this month, their supporters took to the streets for the first time since post election protests were crushed at a rally in December 2009.
Two people were shot dead during the Feb. 14 rally in Tehran which was called to show support for uprisings in North Africa, inspired by protests in Tunisia and Egypt that led to the ouster of both countries' leaders.
The responsibility for the deaths is disputed, and it is unclear whether they were perpetrated by pro or anti-government forces. Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi said two people, with links to U.S. intelligence and exiled militant group Mujahideen Khalq Organization, had been arrested in connection with the killings. [the Mujahideen Khalq is a terrorist group but the US has dabbled with it because it’s anti thugocracy] [that’s a slippery slope] [*]
Late on Saturday, former President Mohammad Khatami said the isolation of Mousavi and Karoubi, whose stated aim is to reform rather than overthrow the Islamic Republic, was a tactical error that might radicalize the opposition. [?] [interesting comment by former president] [he’s the one whom Ahmadinejad beat in 2003-2004?] [*]
"Unfortunately, such moves pave the ground for people who are against the regime and who don't care for Iran or Iranians ... to take advantage of the people's feelings, especially the youths," Khatami was quoted as saying by the Kaleme website. [is he trying rather subtlely to spark more protest?] [*]
Iran Green Voice website has invited people onto the streets of Tehran on March 1, Mousavi's 69th birthday, to protest the treatment of the opposition leaders. Another is planned two weeks later, on March 15, if their voice is not heard, it said.
Several Facebook pages have called for protests every Tuesday.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 10:27 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/clinton-u-s-is-reaching-out-to-anti-gadhafi-libya-opposition-1.346054
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/27/11 10:08:55 AM] [*]
Published 19:06 27.02.11
Clinton: U.S. is reaching out to anti-Gadhafi Libya opposition
By Reuters Tags: Israel news Hillary Clinton Libya [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [as Israel watches, it’s quite nervous about each and every U.S. initiative] [how will supporting Libyan opposition affect Israel?] [quite understandable] [*]
Story Highlights: Comments by Secretary of State come as nations convene in Geneva to discuss common response to the revolt against the long-time Libyan leader.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Sunday the United States was reaching out to Libyan opposition groups seeking to oust longtime leader Muammar Gadhafi. [Israel’s current coalition govt actually likes Clinton much more than Obama—or I should say it’s much more comfortable that Secretary Clinton will be reliably pro Israeli relative to Obama] [Israelis think they don’t know what Obama really thinks about Israel] [Israel doesn’t understand role in US foreign policy] [*]

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/clinton-u-s-is-reaching-out-to-anti-gadhafi-libya-opposition-1.346054
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/27/11 10:08:55 AM] [*]
Published 19:06 27.02.11
Clinton: U.S. is reaching out to anti-Gadhafi Libya opposition
By Reuters Tags: Israel news Hillary Clinton Libya [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [as Israel watches, it’s quite nervous about each and every U.S. initiative] [how will supporting Libyan opposition affect Israel?] [quite understandable] [*]
Story Highlights: Comments by Secretary of State come as nations convene in Geneva to discuss common response to the revolt against the long-time Libyan leader.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Sunday the United States was reaching out to Libyan opposition groups seeking to oust longtime leader Muammar Gadhafi. [Israel’s current coalition govt actually likes Clinton much more than Obama—or I should say it’s much more comfortable that Secretary Clinton will be reliably pro Israeli relative to Obama] [Israelis think they don’t know what Obama really thinks about Israel] [Israel doesn’t understand role in US foreign policy] [*]
Clinton spoke shortly before leaving for Geneva, where she will meet with European allies and envoys from Arab and African countries in hopes of agreeing on a common response to the rebellion that threatens to end Gaddafi's 41-year rule. [where parts of UN and EU located] [*]
The trip comes a day after the United Nations Security Council unanimously imposed a travel ban and froze the assets of Gadhafi and his family.
“We are reaching out to many different Libyans in the east as the revolution moves westward there as well,” Clinton said, referring to opposition groups. “… It is too soon to see how this is going to play out.”
A spokesman for the new National Libyan Council, which formed in the eastern city of Benghazi after it was taken by anti- Gadhafi forces, said his group did not want foreign intervention.
As Gadhafi opponents made gains near the capital city Tripoli, Clinton said the UN resolution was a message to Gadhafi and those around him that they “will be held accountable for the actions that are being taken and have been taken against Libyan people.”
Clinton said the United States was not negotiating with Gadhafi.
“We want him to leave and we want him to end his regime and call off the mercenaries and troops who remain loyal to him,” she said. “How he manages that is up to him.” [unlike Mubarak, Israel too wants to see Qaddafi gone] [*]
U.S. officials say Clinton's trip to Geneva is aimed at coordinating the international response to Libya's crisis, with Washington insisting that the world "speak with one voice" on stemming the violence and bringing Gadhafi to justice.
The resolution adopted by the 15-nation UN council also called for the immediate referral of the deadly crackdown to the International Criminal Court in The Hague for investigation and possible prosecution of anyone responsible for killing civilians. [global pressure prevented China from veto?] [did China abstain?] [*]
The Obama administration has been criticized by rights groups and others for moving too slowly on Libya, the latest country hit by spreading turmoil and anti-government protests across the Middle East and North Africa. But White House officials said fears for the safety of Americans in the country had tempered Washington's response to the turmoil.
Washington announced a series of sanctions against Libya on Friday after a chartered ferry and a plane carrying Americans and other evacuees left Libya.
Washington is considering steps including sanctions and a "no-fly" zone to try to stop Gadhafi's suppression of anti-government protests, which diplomats estimate has killed about 2,000 people in two weeks of violence.
While Western governments are trying to ratchet up pressure, it remains unclear how long Gadhafi, with some thousands of loyalists, might hold out against rebel forces comprised of youthful gunmen and mutinous soldiers.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 10:26 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/26/AR2011022603755.html
Military denies use of intelligence tactics on senators
By Rajiv Chandrasekaran
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, February 27, 2011; A06 [Obama white house] [defense department priorities] [GSAVE, AfPak, elsewhere] [use psci 355-455] [Gen Petraeus and others have ordered an investigation, apparently] [followup] [allegation is that Gen Caldwell used psych ops units to act as public-information units] [*] [see “Did a Top General Run Psy Ops on Senators?” a couple days ago, from Danger Room blog, posted in societal (possibly crossed in govt)] [it’s been a little hard for me to believe Caldwell would do something that stupid but I’ve agreed to wait until more comes out?] [followup] [*]
When Lt. Col. Michael D. Holmes was assigned to the U.S.-led headquarters in Kabul responsible for training Afghan security forces, he assumed he would spend a year employing his skills as an information operations officer. Perhaps, he thought, he would work on ways to influence Afghans to join their army, or he would develop anti-Taliban propaganda.
His superiors had different ideas. Lt. Gen. William Caldwell, who took over the training command just after Holmes arrived in November 2009, decided that information operations -

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/26/AR2011022603755.html
Military denies use of intelligence tactics on senators
By Rajiv Chandrasekaran
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, February 27, 2011; A06 [Obama white house] [defense department priorities] [GSAVE, AfPak, elsewhere] [use psci 355-455] [Gen Petraeus and others have ordered an investigation, apparently] [followup] [allegation is that Gen Caldwell used psych ops units to act as public-information units] [*] [see “Did a Top General Run Psy Ops on Senators?” a couple days ago, from Danger Room blog, posted in societal (possibly crossed in govt)] [it’s been a little hard for me to believe Caldwell would do something that stupid but I’ve agreed to wait until more comes out?] [followup] [*]
When Lt. Col. Michael D. Holmes was assigned to the U.S.-led headquarters in Kabul responsible for training Afghan security forces, he assumed he would spend a year employing his skills as an information operations officer. Perhaps, he thought, he would work on ways to influence Afghans to join their army, or he would develop anti-Taliban propaganda.
His superiors had different ideas. Lt. Gen. William Caldwell, who took over the training command just after Holmes arrived in November 2009, decided that information operations - defined by the Army to include psychological operations, electronic warfare and military deception - were not needed in a training organization, according to two military officers familiar with the matter.
As a consequence, the officers said, Holmes was told by Caldwell's chief of staff that he and the four other members of his Texas National Guard information operations team were being reassigned to focus on activities aimed at informing Afghans, Americans and other members of the NATO coalition about the training mission. [let’s say one was short of public affairs people] [in that event one might use other information specialists] [but at very least, one would want to ensure the VIPs knew what was happening, simply to avoid the appearance of impropriety?] [*]
That decision prompted a howl of complaint from Holmes that eventually resulted in the publication of an article on Rolling Stone magazine's Web site last week alleging that Caldwell's command "illegally ordered a team of soldiers specializing in 'psychological operations' to manipulate visiting American senators into providing more troops and funding for the war." The article prompted Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, to order an investigation.
At its core, the dispute centers on the question of whether ordering Holmes and his information operations team to perform what Caldwell's command has called "information engagement" - including compiling publicly available data about visiting members of Congress - broke the law. [*] Holmes contends that it did; his superiors in Kabul insisted to Holmes that the order was lawful.
In a telephone interview with The Washington Post, Holmes said he was not ordered to do anything that would be illegal if he was not an information operations officer. The dispute, he said, "has to do with who we are, not what we were doing." [*]
In his view, simply asking him and his team to participate in background research for congressional visits was improper, if not illegal, because U.S. military regulations prohibit the use of certain information operations tactics, including psychological and deception operations, on U.S. citizens. [well, if it was necessary for some reason and the VIPs were told it wouldn’t be improper perforce] [*]
"Because we were there on an I.O. [information operations] mission, we should have been focused on the enemy and the recruiting mission," he said. "We could have done a lot of good for them. Instead they crossed the line. They pushed us to focus on the U.S. population."
Holmes contends that he was asked to use his information operations skills in preparing for the congressional visits. In the Rolling Stone piece, Holmes said he was asked by Caldwell's chief of staff, Col. Joseph Buche: "How do we get these guys to give us more people? What do I have to plant inside their heads?"
A spokesman for Caldwell, Lt. Col. Shawn Stroud, said the general is not commenting on the allegations because of the ongoing investigation. But Stroud said the training command "categorically denies the assertion that the command used an information operations cell to influence distinguished visitors."
Although the Rolling Stone piece claims that Holmes specializes in psychological operations, the Army said it has no record of training Holmes in "psychological operations." Holmes said in his interview with The Post that he learned psychological operations techniques as part of his information operations training but he said he never claimed that he was psychological operations officer.
"It's stretching to say that we're the Jedi-mind-tricks guys," he said.
The Rolling Stone article claimed that Caldwell's command engaged in a "campaign" to target a long list of senators. Holmes said his efforts were mostly focused on skeptics of the war, including Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) and lesser-known members of Congress who came in to meet with Caldwell. [I haven’t heard any of them complain yet?] [*]
Holmes disputes the account of the two officers that he and his team were reassigned. He said that at the time he voiced objection to the order to participate in information engagement activities - in March 2010 - he had not been told to cease all of his information operations activities.
But the officers, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the investigation, said Holmes never was asked to use psychological operations, deception or other tactics that would be illegal when applied to fellow Americans. He simply was being asked to conduct research using publicly available material, they said. They also said Holmes never attended any of the meetings with visiting members of Congress. [*]
The problems began on March 22, 2010, when Maj. Vanessa Hillman, a public-affairs officer in the training command sent an e-mail to Holmes asking his team to help provide weekly assessments of the prior week's meetings with visitors. "How did we do with our communication efforts and messaging," she wrote in the e-mail, obtained by The Post. "What results did we get."
Holmes fired back an hour later. "No - we cannot. We are not set up (at all!) to do assessments - nor should we assess the effects of information engagements on US or Coalition allies. We are focused on the adversary, and on the Afghan population - by both joint doctrine and US Law." [I got to say Holmes sounds like he was fighing a turf battle more that moral outrage?] [*]
That prompted Hillman's boss, Col. Gregory T. Breazile, to respond with what Holmes calls an illegal order: "Mike, You will do the assessment piece for the IEWG [Information Effects Working Group]. You are are directly tasked to support the IEWG and all of the DV [distinguished visitor] visits." [chain of command involved over turf?] [*]
The following day, Holmes wrote to a military lawyer, who called the order "a bad idea and contrary to IO policy."
But independent specialists in military law said Holmes's position as an information operations officer, regardless of whether he was formally reassigned, does not mean he cannot be asked to perform other legal tasks. "If you're being asked to chip in and help someone else, that's a lawful order," said Jeffrey Addicott, who was as an Army lawyer for 20 years and now is a law professor at St. Mary's University in San Antonio.
That is the same conclusion the top lawyer for Caldwell's command reached.
"LTC Holmes is not being asked to conduct 'intelligence gathering' or 'info ops' on anyone," Maj. Tami Mitchell, the command's military justice chief, wrote in a March 30 e-mail after Holmes complained.
But in conducting her examination into the issue, Mitchell received information alleging that Holmes had an inappropriate relationship with his subordinate and that he broke military rules by leaving his base in civilian clothes and consuming alcohol in a Kabul restaurant. Later, he would be accused to spending too much time on Facebook. Holmes contends that the charges were trumped up in retaliation for his complaints. [so they jumped on him and now he’s broken the chain to speak with Rolling Stone?] [that seems pretty stupid] [*]
He eventually received a letter of reprimand and was sent home a month before his tour was to end.
He said he provided information about his case to the St. Petersburg Times in Florida a few months ago. When nothing was published, he gave the material to Rolling Stone, which wrote about his case in less than a week. © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:46 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/26/AR2011022604003.html
White House caution in response to Gaddafi's actions was guided by fears for the safety of Americans in Libya
By Scott Wilson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, February 27, 2011; A01 [Obama white house] [112th congress, 1st session] [foreign-policy, national-security bureaucracy] [continuity in USFP] [GSAVE, Jasmine Revolution] [NSC principals and others] [use psci 355-455] [very interesting debate in US society but also withing US govt over democratization versus stability, neoliberalism versus Realpolitk] [my view is the US must use its values to shape its objectives so that both are at play] [but cannot foster democratization without considering repercussions] [and one is clearly Iran’s growing stature in region—in zero-sum terms at Saudis’ expense] [*]
As President Obama and his advisers measured their response to the mass killing in Libya over the past week, they were mindful of one particular scene unfolding thousands of miles away.
The U.S. Embassy and other diplomatic posts in Tripoli, reopened only five years ago, comprise a series of lightly protected compounds and trailers. [of course they had to be] [*] The guards

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/26/AR2011022604003.html
White House caution in response to Gaddafi's actions was guided by fears for the safety of Americans in Libya
By Scott Wilson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, February 27, 2011; A01 [Obama white house] [112th congress, 1st session] [foreign-policy, national-security bureaucracy] [continuity in USFP] [GSAVE, Jasmine Revolution] [NSC principals and others] [use psci 355-455] [very interesting debate in US society but also withing US govt over democratization versus stability, neoliberalism versus Realpolitk] [my view is the US must use its values to shape its objectives so that both are at play] [but cannot foster democratization without considering repercussions] [and one is clearly Iran’s growing stature in region—in zero-sum terms at Saudis’ expense] [*]
As President Obama and his advisers measured their response to the mass killing in Libya over the past week, they were mindful of one particular scene unfolding thousands of miles away.
The U.S. Embassy and other diplomatic posts in Tripoli, reopened only five years ago, comprise a series of lightly protected compounds and trailers. [of course they had to be] [*] The guards there were Libyan, not the U.S. Marines posted outside most embassies. And an armed and angry Libyan opposition was approaching the city from the east, as hundreds of Americans awaited evacuation across rough seas.
Administration officials said the diplomats in Tripoli told them that, in the words of one official, "certain kinds of messaging from the American government could endanger the security of American citizens." There were fears that Americans could be taken hostage. [doubtless the Libyan diplomats were trained in that tacit threat to US] [that helped keep Qaddafi in power all this time] [*]
"Overruling that kind of advice would be a very difficult and dangerous thing to do," said Ben Rhodes, the deputy national security adviser for strategic communications. [Rhodes in NSC staff] [not policymaker but message shaper] [*]
"That was the debate, and frankly we erred on the side of caution, for certain, and at the cost of some criticism," he continued. "But when you're sitting in government and you're told that ignoring that advice could endanger American citizens, that's a line you don't feel very comfortable crossing."
The Obama administration's quiet response to the atrocities in Libya left even reliable supporters stunned by its lack of force and plodding pace.
But officials now say that their previous public posture belied feverish diplomatic work and a head-versus-heart debate that played out in the White House Situation Room, where the immediate threat to Americans and the far-reaching lessons of the failed international efforts to end violence in Bosnia, Rwanda and Iraq have guided the recommendations the president has received. [*]
Among those most involved in conceiving the administration's response is a cadre of senior advisers who, as journalists, lawyers, academics and public officials, have worked for years on the subject of governments who kill their people and how to stop them. [*]
They have vowed not to make the same mistakes that past American administrations committed in the face of mass killings, even as critics argue the Obama White House already erred by staying quiet as the death toll mounted. [that’s part of being president] [don’t whine about it now] [*]
Senior administration officials say the financial sanctions Obama announced Friday evening - after a plane carrying a last batch of Americans left Libya for safety - marked only the first in a range of steps that could include military options should Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi step up his violent campaign. On Saturday, in a telephone call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Obama echoed European leaders' demands that Gaddafi must step down.
"This is already breaking with precedent in many important ways," said Samantha Power, [*] the National Security Council's senior director for multilateral affairs and human rights. "Normally, when a government starts targeting its own people, it takes longer for the U.S. to open its tool box and deploy tools that have bite. We have already seen a preparedness to scale the ladder of escalation."
In addition to Power - who as a journalist wrote the Pulitzer Prize-winning survey of the American response to genocide called "A Problem from Hell" - Vice President Biden, U.N. Ambassador Susan E. Rice, and the State Department's Michael E. Posner and Harold Koh have all worked on the subject of mass killing for decades, produced critical assessments of the U.S. approach, and have been among the country's loudest voices in favor of sanctions, war crimes prosecutions, no-fly zones and other military measures to stop them. [so it did move up to the NSC principals level] [and all around it will ad hoc groups and deputies level] [*]
The head of Obama's newly created NSC office responsible for war crimes, atrocities and civilian protection, David Pressman, is a New York University law school graduate who once clerked for the Supreme Court of Rwanda. [*]
During a speech Thursday at the Holocaust Memorial Museum, Biden criticized the slow U.S. response in the Balkans and said that "when a state engages in atrocity, it forfeits its sovereignty."
It was the pedigree of Obama's team that made his public passivity particularly hard to understand.
In the first days of the uprising in Libya, Obama condemned the killings through a written statement read by his press secretary, Jay Carney. Obama only uttered his first public words on the issue Wednesday evening from the White House Grand Foyer, avoiding any mention of Gaddafi by name. [*]
"You usually expect the United States to take action and the Europeans to make statements," Tom Malinowski, the Washington director of Human Rights Watch, said last week before the sanctions were announced. "So far, though, that seems reversed."
Behind the scenes, officials say they have been drawing lessons from past genocides. [*]From Cambodia through the Balkans, the international failures to stop mass killings have shared several common elements, including a failure to develop a coherent international response.
As Obama called world leaders, Rice, at the United Nations, worked to ensure that the Security Council adopted a strong resolution against the violence. It did so unanimously, with some nations, including Lebanon and India, urging an even harsher tone, and on Saturday adopted a wide-ranging set of economic and military sanctions and referral of the Libyan violence to the International Criminal Court. [*]The African Union and the Arab League also rallied behind a rare rebuke of a charter member. [but report out that China, India, Brazil balked] [*]
"Certainly, if we were sniping at one another or revealing divergent interests, Gaddafi would likely take that as a green light," said Power, who cited divisions at the United Nations and between the United States and European allies in confronting genocide in Rwanda and Bosnia.
Administration officials and outside scholars say previous U.S. governments have tended to narrow the range of possible responses to mass killings to either military intervention or doing nothing.
Power said that "what was most heartbreaking about Rwanda," where an estimated 800,000 people were slaughtered during a several-month spasm of ethnic violence in 1994, was not why countries didn't invade, but why more actions, short of war, were not tried. [*]
Among other options, she listed radio-frequency jamming, expelling the country's ambassador from the United Nations, freezing assets, imposing an arms embargo, implementing a travel ban on officials, and threatening war crimes prosecution.
Some of those measures are already in place in the case of Libya, in part because European leaders have pushed them hard publicly since the uprising began.
"What we have tried to do is tee up, as quickly as possible, every possible policy option available to the president," said Rhodes, adding that those options include military, diplomatic and economic plans to isolate and pressure Gaddafi. [remember, Rhodes job at NSC is to spin us] [that’s what he’s doing] [*]
The options are emerging from the so-called deputies committee, run by deputy national security adviser Denis McDonough. [*]Administration officials say the high-level process, operated daily out of the West Wing, is intended to prevent the official neglect that marked past U.S. responses to mass killings. [so we know the deputies committee was functioning and feeding recommendations up to principals, per usual] [*]
During the 100-day genocide in Rwanda, the Clinton administration held only one deputies meeting on the crisis. Clinton later apologized to Rwanda for failing to act.
Administration officials acknowledge that the planning and diplomacy are more difficult with military options, including a no-fly zone designed to prevent Gaddafi from dispatching warplanes to bomb the regions of Libya now under opposition control.
How to raise support for such a measure when China, a veto-holding member of the U.N. Security Council, is likely to oppose it because of the precedent it could set, remains an open question within the administration.
But administration officials recall how the world finally rallied after years of delay to use military power in the Balkans.
In 1995, then-Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright produced satellite photos of the disturbed earth outside the once U.N.-protected enclave of Srebrenica in northeastern Bosnia, providing concrete evidence of mass graves. The photos, Power said, “jarred loose the international consensus that hadn’t been there before on the use of military force.”
Obama has now ordered the intelligence community to reallocate satellites, eavesdropping resources and other intelligence assets to Libya. One administration official said, “The message to Gaddafi is, ‘We’re watching you.’ “ [I made this comment a couple days ago when it happened] [they told Libyan leaders we are recording everything and will use it in case in ICC or whatever forum appropriate] [that had to scare some not in the inner circle?] [*]
"Historians will decide over time whether our overall response was sufficient," said a senior administration official who requested anonymity to share a personal opinion. "But I don't think the judgment will be that Gaddafi would have listened to us had we only spoken out more forcefully while our people were still in Libya.
"More forceful words earlier would have spared us a lot of heartburn with the media, but I have yet to hear the argument that they would have stopped the violence," the official continued. "Even with all these things we've laid out, Gaddafi has long made clear he has a will of his own." © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:45 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/25/AR2011022503188.html
Could the next Mideast uprising happen in Saudi Arabia?
By Rachel Bronson
Friday, February 25, 2011; 1:00 PM [oped] [on Saudi Arabia] [could it get caught up in Jasmine Revolution?] [*]
Tunisia. Egypt. Yemen. Bahrain. And now the uprising and brutality in Libya. Could Saudi Arabia be next?
The notion of a revolution in the Saudi kingdom seems unthinkable. Yet, a Facebook page is calling for a "day of rage" protest on March 11. Prominent Saudis are urging political and social reforms. And the aging monarch, King Abdullah, has announced new economic assistance to the population, possibly to preempt any unrest. [*]
Is the immovable Saudi regime, a linchpin of U.S. security interests in the region, actually movable? [*]
Revolutions are contagious in the Middle East - and not just in the past few weeks. In the 1950s, when Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser swept into power, nationalist protests ignited across the

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/25/AR2011022503188.html
Could the next Mideast uprising happen in Saudi Arabia?
By Rachel Bronson
Friday, February 25, 2011; 1:00 PM [oped] [on Saudi Arabia] [could it get caught up in Jasmine Revolution?] [*]
Tunisia. Egypt. Yemen. Bahrain. And now the uprising and brutality in Libya. Could Saudi Arabia be next?
The notion of a revolution in the Saudi kingdom seems unthinkable. Yet, a Facebook page is calling for a "day of rage" protest on March 11. Prominent Saudis are urging political and social reforms. And the aging monarch, King Abdullah, has announced new economic assistance to the population, possibly to preempt any unrest. [*]
Is the immovable Saudi regime, a linchpin of U.S. security interests in the region, actually movable? [*]
Revolutions are contagious in the Middle East - and not just in the past few weeks. In the 1950s, when Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser swept into power, nationalist protests ignited across the region, challenging the leadership in Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and eventually Libya and beyond.
A shocked Saudi royal family watched helplessly as one of its members, directly in line to become king, claimed solidarity with the revolution and took up residence in Egypt for a few years. That prince, Talal bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud, a son of the kingdom's founder and a half-brother of the king, is now reintegrated into the Saudi elite - and on hand to remind the monarchy that it is not immune to regional revolts. "Unless problems facing Saudi Arabia are solved, what happened and is still happening in some Arab countries, including Bahrain, could spread to Saudi Arabia, even worse," Prince Talal recently told the BBC. [*]
The unrest in Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain and Yemen (to the kingdom's west, east and south) plays on the Saudis' greatest fear: encirclement. The Saudis aligned with the United States instead of colonial Britain in the early 20th century in part to defend against creeping British hegemony. During the Cold War the monarchy hunkered down against its Soviet-backed neighbors out of fear of being surrounded by communist regimes. And since the end of the Cold War, the overarching goal of Saudi foreign policy has been countering the spread of Iranian influence in all directions - Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and Yemen.
When King Abdullah returned to Saudi Arabia last week after three months of convalescence in the United States and Morocco, one of the first meetings he took was with his ally King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa of Bahrain to discuss the turmoil in his tiny nation. Sunni-ruled Bahrain, less than 20 miles from Saudi Arabia's oil- and Shiite-rich Eastern Province, has been a longtime recipient of Saudi aid. It has also been a focus of Iranian interests. The meeting was a clear signal of support for reigning monarchs, and an indication that the Saudi leadership is concerned about the events unfolding in Bahrain and throughout the region. [Saudis and Iran compete over power in the Gulf region] [*]
Further emphasizing that concern, Saudi leaders were reportedly furious that the Obama administration ultimately supported regime change in Egypt, because of the precedent it could set. Before Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak left office, the Saudis offered to compensate his faltering regime for any withdrawal of U.S. economic assistance [*]- aiming to undermine Washington's influence in Egypt and reduce its leverage.
As Saudi leaders look across the region, they have reason to believe that they won't find themselves confronting revolutionaries at their own doorstep. The upheaval in Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and elsewhere is driven by popular revulsion with sclerotic, corrupt leadership. These countries do not have clear succession plans in place. They do have organized opposition movements, both inside and outside their borders, that are exploiting new means and technologies to challenge the governments. Their leaders are vulnerable to independent militaries. Their economies are weak, and educational opportunities are few.
These conditions seem to be present in Saudi Arabia, too, but the country is different in some important ways. First, its economic situation is far better. Egypt's per capita gross domestic product is slightly more than $6,000, and Tunisia's is closer to $9,000. For Saudi Arabia, it is roughly $24,000 and climbing (up from $9,000 a little more than a decade ago). [*]The Saudi regime also has resources to spend on its people. Oil prices are high and rising. On Wednesday, the king announced massive social benefits packages totaling more than $35 billion and including unemployment relief, housing subsidies, funds to support study abroad and a raft of new job opportunities created by the state. Clearly the king is nervous, but he has goodies to spread around. [CIA World Factbook list $11,200 for Iran (in 2010 US dollars)] [so Saudi still about twice that?] [*]
Poverty is real in Saudi Arabia, but higher oil prices and slowly liberalizing economic policies help mask it. When I met then-Crown Prince Abdullah in 1999, he told a group of us that unemployment was "the number one national security problem that Saudi Arabia faced." He was right then and remains right now. According to an analysis by Banque Saudi Fransi, joblessness among Saudis under age 30 hovered around 30 percent in 2009. Still, many of the king's key policy decisions - joining the World Trade Organization, creating new cities with more liberal values, promoting education and particularly study abroad - have sought to solve these problems. The country may be on a very slow path toward modernization, but it is not sliding backward like many others in the Middle East.
Another difference between Saudi Arabia and its neighbors is that the opposition has been largely co-opted or destroyed. For the past 10 years, the Saudi government has systematically gone after al-Qaeda cells on its territory and has rooted out suspected supporters in the military and the national guard, especially after a series of attacks in 2003. Key opposition clerics have been slowly brought under the wing of the regime. This has involved some cozying up to unsavory people, but the threat from the radical fringe is lower now than it has been in the recent past. And the Saudis have been quite clever about convincing the country's liberal elites that the regime is their best hope for a successful future.
The loyalty of the security services is always an important predictor of a regime's stability, and here the Saudis again have reason for some confidence. Senior members of the royal family and their sons are in control of all the security forces - the military, the national guard and the religious police. They will survive or fall together. There can be no equivalent to the Egyptian military taking over as a credible, independent institution. In Saudi Arabia, the government has a monopoly on violence. Indeed, the Saudis are taking no chances and have arrested people trying to establish a new political party calling for greater democracy and protections for human rights.
Finally, a succession plan is in place. Saudi Arabia has had five monarchs in the past six decades, since the death of its founder. There is not a succession vacuum as there was in Egypt and Tunisia. Many Saudis may not like Prince Nayaf, the interior minister, but they know he is likely to follow King Abdullah and Crown Prince Sultan on the throne. And there is a process, if somewhat opaque, for choosing the king after him.
The United States has a great deal at stake in Saudi Arabia, though Americans often look at the Saudis with distaste. As one senior Saudi government official once asked me: "What does the United States share with a country where women can't drive, the Koran is the constitution and beheadings are commonplace?" It's a tough question, but the answer, quite simply, is geopolitics - and that we know and like Saudi's U.S.-educated liberal elites.
The Saudis have been helpful to us. They are reasonably peaceful stalwarts. They don't attack their neighbors, although they do try to influence them, often by funding allies in local competitions for power. They are generally committed to reasonable oil prices. For example, although their oil is not a direct substitute for Libyan sweet crude, the Saudis have offered to increase their supply to offset any reduction in Libyan production due to the violence there. We work closely with them on counterterrorism operations. And the Saudis are a counterbalance to Iran. We disagree on the Israel-Palestinian issue, but we don't let it get in the way of other key interests.
Washington does not want the Saudi monarchy to fall. The Obama administration would like it to change over time and should encourage a better system of governance with more representation and liberal policies and laws. But revolutions aren't necessarily going to help those we hope will win.
It is dangerous business to predict events in the Middle East, especially in times of regional crisis. It's hard to block out flashbacks of President Jimmy Carter's 1977 New Year's Eve statement that Iran under the shah was an island of stability in a troubled region - only months before that stability was shattered. Still, the key components of rapid, massive, revolutionary change are not present in Saudi Arabia. At least, not yet.
Rachel Bronson is the author of "Thicker Than Oil: America's Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia" and is the vice president of programs and studies at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
Read more from Outlook, follow us on Twitter, and friend us on Facebook. © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:44 AM | Permalink

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/africa/27nations.html
February 26, 2011
Security Council Calls for War Crimes Inquiry in Libya
By EDWARD WYATT [UN] [Security Council] [Libya] [US and others work the system, under chapter 7?] [followup] [a few holdouts in UNSC appear to be concerned about the referral of Libya’s leaders to the UN’s international criminal court (ICC)?] [reportedly, China, India, Brazil and Gabon or some other Africa nation-state?] [use psci 350] [*]
The United Nations Security Council voted unanimously on Saturday night to impose sanctions on Libya’s leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, and his inner circle of advisers, and called for an international war crimes investigation into “widespread and systemic attacks” against Libyan citizens who have protested against the government over the last two weeks.
The vote, only the second time the Security Council has referred a member state to the International Criminal Court, comes after a week of bloody crackdowns in Libya in which Colonel Qaddafi’s security forces have fired on protesters, killing hundreds. [*]
Also on Saturday, President Obama said that Colonel Qaddafi had lost the legitimacy to rule

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/africa/27nations.html
February 26, 2011
Security Council Calls for War Crimes Inquiry in Libya
By EDWARD WYATT [UN] [Security Council] [Libya] [US and others work the system, under chapter 7?] [followup] [a few holdouts in UNSC appear to be concerned about the referral of Libya’s leaders to the UN’s international criminal court (ICC)?] [reportedly, China, India, Brazil and Gabon or some other Africa nation-state?] [*]
The United Nations Security Council voted unanimously on Saturday night to impose sanctions on Libya’s leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, and his inner circle of advisers, and called for an international war crimes investigation into “widespread and systemic attacks” against Libyan citizens who have protested against the government over the last two weeks.
The vote, only the second time the Security Council has referred a member state to the International Criminal Court, comes after a week of bloody crackdowns in Libya in which Colonel Qaddafi’s security forces have fired on protesters, killing hundreds. [*]
Also on Saturday, President Obama said that Colonel Qaddafi had lost the legitimacy to rule and should step down. His statement, which the White House said was made during a telephone call with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, was the strongest yet from any American official against Colonel Qaddafi.
The Security Council resolution also imposes an arms embargo against Libya and an international travel ban on 16 Libyan leaders, and freezes the assets of Colonel Qaddafi and members of his family, including four sons and a daughter. Also included in the sanctions were measures against defense and intelligence officials who are believed to have played a role in the violence against civilians in Libya. [*]
The sanctions did not include imposing a no-fly zone over Libya, a possibility that had been discussed by officials from the United States and its allies in recent days.
The resolution also prohibited all United Nations member nations from providing any kind of arms to Libya or allowing the transportation of mercenaries, who are believed to have played a part in the recent violence. Suspected shipments of arms should be halted and inspected, the resolution said.
While the sanctions are likely to take weeks to have an effect, they reflected widespread condemnation of Colonel Qaddafi’s tactics, by far the most brutal crackdown in the region since antigovernment demonstrations began.
Susan E. Rice, the United States ambassador to the United Nations, called the resolution “a clear warning to the Libyan government that it must stop the killing.” [*]
But Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, warned Saturday that sanctions would do more harm to Libya’s people than to Colonel Qaddafi. [*]
The attacks by Libya’s security forces on the protesters led the United States to close its embassy in Tripoli on Friday and Britain and France to close theirs on Saturday.
The United States on Friday imposed unilateral sanctions against Libya. It also froze billions of dollars of Libyan government assets and announced that it would do the same with the assets of high-ranking Libyan officials who took part in the violent crackdown. [see today’s govt for more detail] [*]
At the United Nations, Security Council members initially disagreed during deliberations Saturday whether to approve the resolution, circulated by France, Germany, Britain and the United States, that would refer Colonel Qaddafi and his top aides to the International Criminal Court for prosecution, according to a senior United States official who observed the negotiations.
Libya’s own delegation to the United Nations had renounced Colonel Qaddafi on Monday, and later sent a letter to the Security Council president, Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti of Brazil, supporting such a referral. That statement, the official said, went far to persuade reluctant Council members that they should go ahead with the referral.
After the resolution was approved, Libya’s ambassador to the United Nations, Abdurrahman Shalgam, who was once a close confidant of Colonel Qaddafi, said it would “help put an end to this fascist regime, which is still in existence in Tripoli.”
While some other details of the resolution were haggled over, the measure was remarkable for how quickly it came together, according to the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to preserve the confidentiality of the discussions. The official said the mood in the chamber was focused, with representatives of several countries expressing concern about the well-being of their citizens and generally exhibiting “a strong sense of urgency.”
Much uncertainty remained throughout the afternoon about how China, one of the Security Council’s five permanent members, would vote after having expressed doubt about the referral to the international court. After the Chinese delegation consulted with Beijing, it signaled it would vote to approve the measure.
The Security Council cast a similar vote before, in 2005 when it called for an investigation of violence and crimes against humanity in the Darfur region of Sudan, the American official said. The United States abstained from that vote, which the official attributed to “a different administration.” The court has indicted Sudan’s president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, on charges of genocide.
The United Nations resolution on Saturday also established a committee to consider whether additional, targeted sanctions should be imposed on other individuals and entities “who commit serious human rights abuses, including ordering attacks and aerial bombardments on civilian populations or facilities.”
In Washington, a White House account of Saturday’s telephone call between Mr. Obama and Chancellor Merkel of Germany said the president told Mrs. Merkel that “when a leader’s only means of staying in power is to use mass violence against his own people, he has lost the legitimacy to rule and needs to do what is right for his country by leaving now.”

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:44 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/weekinreview/27tyrants.html
February 26, 2011
The Lands Autocracy Won’t Quit
By CLIFFORD J. LEVY [Russia] [former USSR] [Russia’s “Near Abroad” and what Russia considers its sphere of influence?] [use psci350] [use ir text] [the long, hard slog that is democratization] [Russia’s unique ethos: includes strong leaders (somewhat akin to Middle East) and Kremlin intrigues well before Bolsheviks] [followup] [tending the “Near Abroad”] [*]
MOSCOW — Let the Middle East and North Africa be buffeted by populist discontent over repressive governments. Here in Lenin’s former territory, across the expanse of the old Soviet Union, rulers with iron fists still have the upper hand.
Their endurance serves as a sobering counterpoint for anyone presuming that the overthrow of a tyrannical regime by a broad-based movement is inevitably followed by vibrant democracy.
The long-serving president of the former Soviet republic of Belarus, for example, won another term in December with 80 percent of the vote, then took great offense when the

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/weekinreview/27tyrants.html
February 26, 2011
The Lands Autocracy Won’t Quit
By CLIFFORD J. LEVY [Russia] [former USSR] [Russia’s “Near Abroad” and what Russia considers its sphere of influence?] [use psci350] [use ir text] [the long, hard slog that is democratization] [Russia’s unique ethos: includes strong leaders (somewhat akin to Middle East) and Kremlin intrigues well before Bolsheviks] [followup] [tending the “Near Abroad”] [*]
MOSCOW — Let the Middle East and North Africa be buffeted by populist discontent over repressive governments. Here in Lenin’s former territory, across the expanse of the old Soviet Union, rulers with iron fists still have the upper hand.
Their endurance serves as a sobering counterpoint for anyone presuming that the overthrow of a tyrannical regime by a broad-based movement is inevitably followed by vibrant democracy.
The long-serving president of the former Soviet republic of Belarus, for example, won another term in December with 80 percent of the vote, then took great offense when the results were called shamefully implausible by his opponents. (They have not been heard from since.)
Over in Kazakhstan, the even longer-serving president has had himself coroneted with the formal title of “national leader.”
The strongest of the post-Soviet strongmen, Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, is actually a comparative newcomer, having reigned unchallenged for a mere decade now. [*]
Nearly two decades ago, the collapse of Soviet Communism offered the promise that power would soon be wielded differently in this region: The newly independent former Soviet republics, sprung from the shackles of totalitarianism, would embrace free elections, multiple political parties and a vigorously independent media.
But those hopes now seem premature, or perhaps naïve. In the 1990’s, the Soviet breakup sowed chaos — most notably in Russia — and a corps of autocrats arose in response, pledging stability and economic growth. The brand of democracy that is advanced in the West emerged discredited in many of these countries. [*]
And so even as upheavals in Egypt, Libya and elsewhere in the Arab world have garnered attention across the former Soviet Union, the region’s leaders express confidence that they are not under threat. [I haven’t see much indication they are] [we were there in 2008] [but economic downturns do strange things to people] [*]
“In the past, such a scenario was harbored for us, and now attempts to implement it are even more likely,” Mr. Putin’s protégé, President Dmitri A. Medvedev, warned last week. “But such a scenario is not going to happen.” [*]
The wilting of the democracy movement was reflected in the arrest of several Russian opposition leaders at a small rally in Moscow on Dec. 31 — one of the regular protests scheduled to highlight the 31st article of Russia’s Constitution, which guarantees freedom of assembly.
There was no public outcry over the arrests, and people went about with their lives. Tunisia, it was not.
The same opposition politicians, now out of jail, returned on Jan. 31, hoping that an inspiring new example — Egypt — would prove galvanizing, and Triumphal Square in Moscow would have the feel of Tahrir Square in Cairo.
“We are all watching what is happening in Egypt,” Boris Y. Nemtsov, a former deputy prime minister, told the crowd.
“They have had 30 years of the dictator Mubarak, who is a thief and corrupt,” he said. “How is he really any different than our guy?” [*]
People shouted, “Russia without Putin!” But once again, society did not join in. It did not appear that more than 1,000 people attended.
What’s more, many were not particularly young. That helps to explain why such uprisings seem to have had a harder time taking root. Populations in Russia and many other former Soviet republics are aging, in contrast to those in the Middle East. Here, there are fewer people to carry out youthful acts of rebellion, whether on the streets or on Facebook and Twitter. [*]
The older generation grew up under Soviet rule, which was so tightly controlled that today’s autocracies feel like an improvement. They also enjoy more economic freedom today.
Even in the six former Soviet republics that have Muslim majorities, the events in the Middle East have not had significant repercussions. [*]
If anything, the violence has strengthened the hand of the autocrats in the short term because it has caused oil prices to spike, benefiting the economies of petro-states like Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
The current crop of post-Soviet leaders has also skillfully played upon fears of instability and misery in the wake of the 1990’s, knowing that when times are tough, people often prefer authoritarian order to cacophonous democracy.
A talk show on the Echo of Moscow radio station, which is something akin to the NPR of Russia, chewed over the question of why protesters had flooded the streets of Middle Eastern capitals and not Moscow. “Our people endure, and will patiently endure, suffering,” [long suffering is part of Russian ethos] [*] said Georgi Mirsky, a well-known political analyst. “Because Soviet Man is still alive — that’s the thing! The mentality of the people (or at least a considerable number of them) has not changed enough for them to develop a taste for freedom.”
There are, of course, exceptions. The Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — have joined the European Union and embraced Western mores. But they were always outliers within the Soviet Union, and only became part of it when Stalin seized them during World War II. [*]
Even the so-called color revolutions over the last decade in Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia, which were widely viewed as a repudiation of authoritarianism, have since fallen flat.
In Ukraine, a new president was elected last year after a backlash against the Orange Revolution, and he is pursuing a Putin-style crackdown on the opposition.
A revolt in Kyrgyzstan last year ousted a ruler who had ousted a predecessor. As a result, politicians in Kyrgyzstan’s neighbors in Central Asia now maintain that they need heavily centralized rule to avoid Kyrgyzstan’s fate.
“We have to feed our people, then we can create conditions where our people can become involved in politics,” said Nurlan Uteshev, a Kazakh from his country’s ruling party.
Mr. Putin, Russia’s prime minister and former (and perhaps future) president, regularly cites the example of neighboring Ukraine. “We must not in any way allow the Ukrainization of political life in Russia,” Mr. Putin once warned.
For a time, Georgia seemed at the forefront of a democratic wave. But in 2007, President Mikheil Saakashvili, a close American ally, violently suppressed his opposition. Now, his rivals characterize him as no better than Mr. Putin.
Mr. Saakashvili’s supporters defend him by contending that he will not try to stay in power when his term expires in 2013. They say he has made enormous strides in modernizing Georgia, adding that it is unrealistic to expect a country long immersed in the Soviet system to be transformed overnight.
That is a common refrain. Janez Lenarcic, a diplomat who heads democracy promotion for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, has the taxing job of trying to persuade these countries to loosen the reins.
“The notion of stability plays an important role here,” Mr. Lenarcic said. “They say, ‘We need more time, we need to get there at our own pace.’ We respond that long-term stability will come only with strong democratic institutions, not with personalities, because personalities are not around forever.”
He said he remained optimistic, despite the stagnation. And perhaps views are evolving. A recent poll of Russians asked if they preferred order (even at the expense of their rights) or democracy (even if it gives rise to destructive elements). Order won, 56 percent to 23 percent.
That may not sound encouraging, but a decade ago the spread was 81 percent to 9 percent.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:43 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/europe/27sweden.html
February 26, 2011
Swedes Begin to Question Liberal Migration Tenets
By SUZANNE DALEY [Sweden] [Stockholm] [Europe] [anti Islam or anti Muslim sentiment, past few years here] [most jihadis stuff has been in England, France, some in Germany] [last couple years some smaller things in Nordic nations] [use psci 350, 469] [followup, December 2010?] [*]
MALMO, Sweden — Nick Nilsson, 46, decided to vote for Sweden’s far-right party last fall because of a growing sense that his country had gone too far in letting so many immigrants settle here. [*]
A truck driver, Mr. Nilsson lives a half mile from the Rosengard section of this city, where dreary apartment buildings are jammed with refugees from virtually all the world’s recent conflicts: Iranians, Bosnians, Palestinians, Somalis, Iraqis. [*]
“No one has a job over there,” Mr. Nilsson said recently. “They are shooting at each other. There are drugs. They burn cars. Enough is enough.”
For a time, Sweden seemed immune to the kind of anti-immigrant sentiment blossoming elsewhere on the European continent. Its generous welfare and asylum policies have allowed

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/europe/27sweden.html
February 26, 2011
Swedes Begin to Question Liberal Migration Tenets
By SUZANNE DALEY [Sweden] [Stockholm] [Europe] [anti Islam or anti Muslim sentiment, past few years here] [most jihadis stuff has been in England, France, some in Germany] [last couple years some smaller things in Nordic nations] [use psci 350, 469] [followup, December 2010?] [*]
MALMO, Sweden — Nick Nilsson, 46, decided to vote for Sweden’s far-right party last fall because of a growing sense that his country had gone too far in letting so many immigrants settle here. [*]
A truck driver, Mr. Nilsson lives a half mile from the Rosengard section of this city, where dreary apartment buildings are jammed with refugees from virtually all the world’s recent conflicts: Iranians, Bosnians, Palestinians, Somalis, Iraqis. [*]
“No one has a job over there,” Mr. Nilsson said recently. “They are shooting at each other. There are drugs. They burn cars. Enough is enough.”
For a time, Sweden seemed immune to the kind of anti-immigrant sentiment blossoming elsewhere on the European continent. Its generous welfare and asylum policies have allowed hundreds of thousands of refugees to settle here, many in recent years from Muslim countries. Nearly a quarter of Sweden’s population is now foreign born or has a foreign-born parent. [*]
But increasingly, Swedes are questioning these policies. Last fall, the far-right party — campaigning largely on an anti-immigration theme — won 6 percent of the vote and, for the first time, enough support to be seated in the Swedish Parliament.
Six months later, many Swedes are still in shock. The country — proud of its reputation for tolerance — can no longer say it stands apart from the growing anti-immigrant sentiment that has changed European parliaments elsewhere, leading to the banning of burqas in France and minarets in Switzerland. [*]
In Malmo, a rapidly gentrifying port city in Sweden’s south, support for the far-right Sweden Democrats was particularly strong, about 10 percent of the vote. It is a place where tensions over immigration are on full display.
The city’s mayor, Ilmar Reepalu, a Social Democrat, ran his hands over a city map in his office, pointing out working-class neighborhoods like Mr. Nilsson’s that voted heavily for the Sweden Democrats, as might be expected, he said. But he could point to wealthier neighborhoods, too, that produced support for the far right as never before.
“We must dig deeper to understand that,” he said quietly.
Some experts say you do not have to dig that far. Sweden’s liberal policies have become costly. In the 1950s, ’60s and ’70s, Sweden, which had more manufacturing jobs than citizens to fill them, invited immigrants in. Most came from other European countries. They worked and paid taxes. Those were good years for Malmo, which had shipyards and a textile industry. [*]
When those jobs disappeared, Sweden stopped the flow of immigrant labor, but not the flow of refugees, [*]many of whom clustered in Malmo and other former industrial centers. Jobs were still scarce, but housing was available, apartments built long ago for laborers.
In some of those apartment blocks, the unemployment rate among immigrants stands at 80 percent. Still, their children need schooling, and they have elderly parents who need health care. Some are damaged by the violence they have lived through. They suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder and drug and alcohol addictions.
Prof. Jan Ekberg, an economist at Linnaeus University, questions the policies that allowed so many refugees to settle far from jobs. “They are depending on the public sector now as never before,” he said. “That was a policy mistake.”
Rosengard hardly has the look of a troubled ghetto. Lawns and playgrounds abound. But the area does not look like traditional Sweden, either. Satellite dishes hang from every balcony. The bakery sells Middle Eastern confections. Al Jazeera plays on the televisions. And young men huddle on street corners casually bragging about doing battle with the police. [*]
A few years ago, the fire and ambulance brigades would not even enter Rosengard without a police escort. Youths there threw rocks and set cars on fire. Police officials say things are much better now. Fires were down 40 percent last year compared with 2009. But last month, two police vehicles parked at the station were set on fire with small homemade explosives.
All this does not sit well with Mr. Nilsson and his wife, Ann-Christine, 51, who say that immigrants are not only failing to pay their way, but that they also are refusing to learn the ways of their host country. [lack of assimilation in Europe] [this theme resonates there more than US] [*]
“They do not respect Swedish people,” Mrs. Nilsson said. “As long as they learn the language and behave like Swedes, they are welcome. But they do not. Immigration as it is now needs to stop.” [*]
But resentment runs both ways. Residents of Rosengard feel that they are isolated and looked down on. They scoff at the notion that Swedes are somehow special — less racist and xenophobic than other Europeans. [*]They believe the country has been generous with financial support, but little else.
Young immigrants like Behrang Miri, 26, whose family came from Iran, say Islamophobia is a growing issue. “If a Swedish guy hits a woman, it’s alcoholism,” he said. “If someone hits a lady in my neighborhood, it’s due to culture.” [*]
He added: “And all this talk about outlawing burqas for teachers. No teachers wear burqas. Why are they talking about that?” [*]
Mr. Miri, a rapper who has started a nonprofit agency to encourage multiculturalism, says he loves Sweden and is grateful he was taken in. But, he says, the Swedes have not gone far enough in accepting immigrants. “O.K., they’ve opened up the first door.” he said. “But I want doors four, five and six. I want to be able to become president.”
Even older immigrants who have made lives here say they have little contact with Swedes. A refugee from Bosnia, Ask Gasi, says he can understand that Swedes are reluctant to embrace the diverse and needy refugee population. He wonders himself whether the government made a mistake in letting so many come in.
Mr. Gasi was able to earn a doctorate degree here, and he has a job as a teaching assistant. But he still does not feel welcome. He points to the swastikas and the Serbian crosses etched in the hall outside the mosque he attends. [*]
“It’s hard to watch the news,” he said. “It’s Muslim this, Muslim that. Everything is about how bad we are. The Swedish won’t say anything to your face. But they say things.” [*]
Some experts believe the support for the far right has already reached its limits in Sweden. They say the increase in votes last fall was more the product of deft campaigning by the far right, which has avoided inflammatory language, than a deepening of racist or xenophobic sentiments.
Ulf Bjereld, a political science professor at the University of Gothenburg, says that a vast majority of Swedes rank immigration very low on their list of concerns. He says they are, in fact, less racist and xenophobic than they used to be, according to surveys conducted regularly since the 1990s.
But researchers have found that immigrants do face discrimination in jobs and housing. Malmo’s mayor, Mr. Reepalu, believes jobs and schooling are critical, though he notes with disappointment that as soon as a school has more than about 20 percent immigrants, Swedish parents take their children out.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:42 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/africa/27qaddafi.html
February 27, 2011
The Vacuum After Qaddafi
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [followup] [watch and wait] [*]
CAIRO — Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi sounded a resonant warning, exhorting his dwindling supporters toward civil war.
“At the appropriate time, we will open the arms depots so all Libyans and tribes will be armed,” he shouted into a handheld microphone at dusk Friday, “so that Libya turns red with fire!” [*]
That is indeed the fear of those watching the carnage in Libya, not least because Colonel Qaddafi spent the last 40 years hollowing out every single institution that might challenge his authority. Unlike neighboring Egypt and Tunisia, Libya lacks the steadying hand of a

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/africa/27qaddafi.html
February 27, 2011
The Vacuum After Qaddafi
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [followup] [watch and wait] [*]
CAIRO — Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi sounded a resonant warning, exhorting his dwindling supporters toward civil war.
“At the appropriate time, we will open the arms depots so all Libyans and tribes will be armed,” he shouted into a handheld microphone at dusk Friday, “so that Libya turns red with fire!” [*]
That is indeed the fear of those watching the carnage in Libya, not least because Colonel Qaddafi spent the last 40 years hollowing out every single institution that might challenge his authority. Unlike neighboring Egypt and Tunisia, Libya lacks the steadying hand of a military to buttress a collapsing government. It has no Parliament, no trade unions, no political parties, no civil society, no nongovernmental agencies. Its only strong ministry is the state oil company. The fact that some experts think the next government might be built atop the oil ministry underscores the paucity of options. [*]
The worst-case scenario should the rebellion topple him, and one that concerns American counterterrorism officials, is that of Afghanistan or Somalia — a failed state where Al Qaeda or other radical groups could exploit the chaos and operate with impunity. [*]
But there are others who could step into any vacuum, including Libya’s powerful tribes or a pluralist coalition of opposition forces that have secured the east of the country and are tightening their vise near the capital.
Optimists hope that the opposition’s resolve persists; pessimists worry that unity will last only until Colonel Qaddafi is gone, and that a bloody witch hunt will ensue afterward.
“It is going to be a political vacuum,” said Lisa Anderson, the president of the American University in Cairo and a Libya expert, suggesting that chances are high for a violent period of score-settling. “I don’t think it is likely that people will want to put down their weapons and go back to being bureaucrats.” [now the euphoria is starting to evaporate, leaving cold, hard Realpolitik?] [*]
There is a short list of Libyan institutions, but each has limits. None of the tribes enjoy national reach, and Colonel Qaddafi deliberately set one against the other, dredging up century-old rivalries even in his latest speeches.
There are a few respected but elderly members of the original 12-member Revolutionary Command Council who joined Colonel Qaddafi in unseating the king in 1969. Some domestic and exiled intellectuals hope that Libya can resurrect the pluralistic society envisioned by the 1951 Constitution, though without a monarch. [*]
And there is the wild card, such as Colonel Qaddafi’s feat at age 27 as a junior officer when he engineered a bloodless coup against a feeble monarchy.
The greatest fear — and one on which experts differ — is that Al Qaeda or Libya’s own Islamist groups, which withstood fierce repression and may have the best organizational skills among the opposition, could gain power. [*]
“We’ve been concerned from the start of the unrest that A.Q. and its affiliates will look for opportunities to exploit any disarray,” said a United States counterterrorism official, referring to Al Qaeda.
Of these affiliates, he mentioned the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, formed by the veterans who fought the Soviets in Afghanistan, and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, the network’s North African affiliate, which hastened to endorse the Libyan uprising last week.
Those groups “could be more successful” in Libya than militants have been so far in Egypt, the counterterrorism official said. “Our counterterrorism experts are watching for any signs that these groups might gain a new foothold there.” [*]
Frederic Wehrey, a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation who just returned from a three-week trip to Libya, said Al Qaeda might try to exploit tribal unrest and seize footholds in the vast ungoverned spaces of southwestern Libya, near the Algerian border. But he added that Sufi Islam, a mystical form of the religion popular among Libyans, has been resistant to the most extreme forms of Salafism favored by Al Qaeda. [*]
“Al Qaeda is very skillful at exploiting tribal grievances, so that’s a concern in the south,” Mr. Wehrey said. “But in terms of whether Libyans are primed for Al Qaeda’s narrative, I don’t think that’s as ominous as some might suspect.” [so far all I’ve seen is the typical nationalism with a little anti Israel thrown in; in the region that’s fairly typical] [*]
Colonel Qaddafi long saw Al Qaeda as a grave threat to his rule, and was the first to request an arrest warrant for Osama bin Laden through Interpol, said Bruce Hoffman, director of the center for peace and security studies at Georgetown University. But the reality is more nuanced.
To answer the threats that after the Qaddafis comes either an Islamic or tribal deluge, Mustafa Mohamed Abud al-Jeleil, the justice minister who defected to the east, held a forum this week in the eastern city of Baida. It brought together tribal leaders, former military commanders and others who pledged future cooperation.
“We want one country — there is no Islamic emirate or Al Qaeda anywhere,” Mr. Abud al-Jeleil told Al Jazeera. “Our only goal is to liberate Libya from this regime and to allow the people to choose the government that they want.”
It was right around Baida, a city northeast of Benghazi, however, that the Islamic insurgency reached its zenith in the 1990s. Colonel Qaddafi heavily bombed the city of Darnah, also in the northeast, in the 1990s to eliminate the insurgency, and jailed those members who were not killed. His son and heir apparent Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi led a well-publicized campaign to wean them from violence while they were in jail, but there is no assurance that the teachings will stick once they are freed. Among these groups is a Libyan Muslim Brotherhood with ties to similar organizations in Egypt and Algeria, which is mainly moderate with a few radical splinters. [*]
Nonetheless, there are real doubts about how much appeal radical Islam holds among Libyans. In Benghazi, in the courthouse that serves as the nerve center for the opposition, Essam Gheriani, a psychologist turned merchant, said that because most Libyans are Sunni Muslims from the same sect, Islam in Libya would remain moderate. “The extremism we saw is the result of oppression,” said Mr. Gheriani, a graduate of Michigan State University who is married to a lawyer who helped organize the first protests. “As you move from that period the extremism will decline with democracy. It won’t have a chance.”
Experts also believe Colonel Qaddafi used the threat of a Muslim takeover the way many Arab leaders did — exaggerating the menace to win sympathy from a United States prone to seeing Islamic revolutions under every Koran.
Tom Malinowski, Washington director of Human Rights Watch, who has participated in several White House meetings on the crisis, said Libya’s tribal nature and absence of civil society were worrisome. But he said the experience of eastern Libya, where ad-hoc committees have taken control of local affairs, is a strikingly positive sign.
“People seem to be adopting a new identity based on their common experience of standing up to a dictator,” Mr. Malinowski said. “That doesn’t mean peace and love and brotherhood forever. But it’s a reason to hope that our worst fears about a post-Qaddafi Libya may not be realized.”
For the most part, though, few experts believe that any group can dominate. [and that means perpetual anarchy-chaos?] [*]
“The current opposition movement in Libya is diverse and includes secular, nationalists, monarchists and Islamist elements,” said Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, a professor at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. “I don’t think that any movement is in the position, in terms of resources and ideological power, to monopolize the political process.”
But he said that some hybrid of Islamism and nationalism was likely to emerge. In Libya, the strong nationalism that has run through all the recent uprisings is more likely to take on a religious tinge, experts believe, because it is a conservative society whose royal family once drew its authority in part from its spiritual role.
Probably the greatest insurance that Libya will not descend into Somalia-like chaos is its oil. The oil — once production fully resumes — can buy social content during a rocky transition period and offers insurance that Western powers cannot afford to sit by and watch such an important oil exporter disintegrate. Last year Italy, Germany and France together bought a substantial proportion of Libya’s 1.55 million barrels of petroleum pumped daily, about 2 percent of world production. [*]
Some experts wonder if Libya might become the first experiment in the use of the “responsibility to protect” — the idea that a United Nations force would be deployed to prevent civilian deaths in the event of widespread violence. Russian or Chinese opposition to intervening in domestic affairs might be overcome if enough Libyans accepted the idea, which is possible because the United Nations helped oversee the birth of their modern nation. [*]
With the country now split badly between east and west, an outside protection force would lend time for Tripoli to reassert itself as the capital and establish control. [it’s far too messy for West or UN to step in] [that would be terrible idea] [*]
“Nobody has an interest in permanent anarchy,” said Ms. Anderson of American University in Cairo. “You have to have some kind of mechanism to ensure that people turn in their weapons,” she said. “I don’t see there is any group within the political constellation that could do it.”
Eric Schmitt and Scott Shane contributed reporting from Washington, and Kareem Fahim from Benghazi, Libya.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:41 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/28/world/africa/28unrest.html
February 27, 2011
Libyan Rebels Tighten Ring of Armed Control Near Tripoli
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and SHARON OTTERMAN [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [followup] [watch and wait] [see today’s govt for some inside looks at NSC] [*]
ZAWIYA, Libya — In this city 30 miles west of Tripoli, hundreds of people rejoiced in a central square on Sunday, waving the flag of free Libya and shouting the chants that foretold the downfall of governments in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt: “The people want to bring down the regime.”
Rebels, in control of the city, had reinforced its boundaries with informal barricades, and army units that had defected stood guard with rifles, six tanks and anti-aircraft guns mounted on the backs of trucks. In the central square here, a mosque was riddled with enormous holes, evidence of the government’s failed attempt to take back this city on Thursday. Nearby lay seven freshly dug graves belonging to protesters who had fallen in that siege, witnesses said.
“We are really suffering for 42 years, and people are asking here for the same things as

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/28/world/africa/28unrest.html
February 27, 2011
Libyan Rebels Tighten Ring of Armed Control Near Tripoli
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and SHARON OTTERMAN [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [followup] [watch and wait] [see today’s govt for some inside looks at NSC] [*]
ZAWIYA, Libya — In this city 30 miles west of Tripoli, hundreds of people rejoiced in a central square on Sunday, waving the flag of free Libya and shouting the chants that foretold the downfall of governments in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt: “The people want to bring down the regime.”
Rebels, in control of the city, had reinforced its boundaries with informal barricades, and army units that had defected stood guard with rifles, six tanks and anti-aircraft guns mounted on the backs of trucks. In the central square here, a mosque was riddled with enormous holes, evidence of the government’s failed attempt to take back this city on Thursday. Nearby lay seven freshly dug graves belonging to protesters who had fallen in that siege, witnesses said.
“We are really suffering for 42 years, and people are asking here for the same things as other people of the world — they want the real democracy,” said Ahmed El-Hadi Remeh, an engineer standing in the square. He and other residents told how they had used stones to repel the government’s forces. [*]
Proving how close opposition control has come to the capital, where Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi maintains tight control, the confidence of the demonstrators in Zawiya was remarkable, all the more so because it was witnessed as part of the official tour for international journalists that Col. Qaddafi’s government organized. The public relations effort, apparently intended to show a stable Libya to the outside world, appeared to backfire, as a tour of Tripoli had on Saturday. [*]
Instead, the tour, whose minders were forced to wait at the city’s outskirts, showed a nation where the uprising had reached the capital’s doorstep, underscoring a growing impression that the ring of rebel control around Tripoli was tightening. [viva la protests] [*]
But in a sign that the fight was far from over, armed government forces were seen massing around the city. [*]
In Benghazi, meanwhile, the eastern city emerging as the capital of the rebellion, protesters nominated the country’s former justice minister to lead a provisional government, news services reported on Sunday, moving to avoid the chaos that some analysts warned would overtake a Libya not ruled by Col. Qaddafi’s iron grip.
Since his own defection to the opposition last week, the former justice minister, Mustafa Mohamed Abd al-Jalil, has been meeting with tribal leaders and military commanders who have also defected. In an interview earlier in the week, Mr. Jalil pledged he would head a caretaker government that would hold interim elections within three months, and said the opposition had no intention of organizing a breakaway state.
“We want one country — there is no Islamic emirate or Al Qaeda anywhere,” he told Al Jazeera. “Our only goal is to liberate Libya from this regime and to allow the people to choose the government that they want.”
Libya’s ambassador to the United States, Ali Aujali, said he would support the caretaker government “until the liberation of all of Libya, which I hope will happen very soon," he told the satellite news channel Saturday. He is one of many diplomats who have resigned from formal service to protest Col. Qaddafi’s bloody crackdown against dissent.
International pressure against Col. Qaddafi ratcheted up on Saturday, with the United Nations Security Council agreeing unanimously to refer the country’s leaders to the International Criminal Court for possible prosecution for war crimes, freeze Col. Qaddafi’s assets and those of his family and associates and ban their travel. [US suggested it was using its considerable IC assets to build a case] [*]
Within Tripoli, Col. Qaddafi showed no signs on Sunday of loosening his grip on his stronghold, even though his determination seemed to be matched by that of his opponents.
With clear weather in the city of 2 million after a week of rains and high winds, residents ventured out for food, medicine and other essentials, and some shops gingerly opened their doors, residents reached Sunday by telephone said. But plainclothes security forces loyal to Col. Qaddafi patrolled the streets,.
“One thing I know is that Qaddafi is completely defiant, completely hardheaded -- he doesn’t see himself like the other leaders who are forced to leave,” said one resident. “We don’t know what is going to happen in the next couple of days. The expectation is that the people from the cities and towns from outside of Tripoli -- they will march on the city in the hopes of forcing themselves to take it over.” [*]
The northeast portion of the country is now firmly in control of the opposition, and Misarata, the nation’s third largest city 130 miles east of Tripoli, was also reportedly under protester control.
But the situation in Sabratha, near the Tunisian border, was less clear, said one resident, with government forces alternately striking and pulling back to the point that residents were not sure from hour to hour who was in control.
“Some shops are open, one bank is open for the time being,” a doctor in Sabratha said, “but we are watchful.”
By Sunday, roughly 100,000 refugees had fled the country, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees reported. France became the latest country to close its embassy in Tripoli, and the British government revoked the diplomatic immunity in Britain of Col. el-Qaddafi and his sons, William Hague, the foreign secretary said. [*]
“Of course it is time for Col. Qaddafi to go,” Mr. Hague said in a BBC interview.
But the Qaddafi defiance continued to emanate. In an interview with CNN on Sunday, Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, the leader’s second son, insisted that the military had not attacked civilians and that reports of unrest in Libya were untrue.
"The whole south is calm. The west is calm. The middle is calm. Even part of the east,” he said.
The show’s host, Christiane Amanpour, repeated President Obama’s comments Saturday that “if a person can only keep control by using force, then legitimacy is gone.” Seif Qaddafi responded, "Right, but what happened? We didn’t use force. Second, we still have people around us." [?] [shows how far out of touch he is] [*]
Despite a United Nations report of more than 1,000 civilian deaths in the unrest, Seif Qaddafi said, “Show me a single attack, show me a single bomb. The Libyan air force destroyed just the ammunition sites. That’s it."
Elsewhere in the region, antigovernment protests continued. Tens of thousands of people in the Yemeni capital took to the streets Saturday night, surrounding some 100 tents of protesters who say that they are not leaving until President Ali Abdullah Saleh steps down.
There was a sense, after a prominent tribal leader had broken with Mr. Saleh on Saturday, that the tide had turned in their direction, and instead of being marked by tension, the night’s events took on a carnival atmosphere, with food carts and groups of men dancing traditional Yemeni folk dances.
“The happy atmosphere here is because people are starting to believe change is possible,” said Moahmed Al Shurabi, a graduate student, at the protest, while a group of about 200 men behind him watched Al Jazeera on a big television screen. “The number has increased, but also the type of people has changed. At first it was only students. Now there are lawyers, teachers, doctors here.”
In Tunisia, where the push to overthrow undemocratic governments had begun in January, three people were reported to have died in protests on Saturday. As in Egypt, where protesters are seeking the ouster of a caretaker government that they fear is just a proxy for their old leadership, demonstrators there criticized promised elections, which are months away, as a hazy promise.
There were also early signs that the region’s unrest was spreading to Oman, the normally peaceful sultanate at the edge of the Arabian Peninsula next to Yemen. [*]In the industrial city of Sohar on Sunday, Omani police fired tear gas at stone-throwing protesters who were demanding political reforms, Reuters reported. And protests were also taking place in the southern town of Salalah, where demonstrators have been camped out since Friday near the office of a provincial governor, the news service reported.
David D. Kirkpatrick reported from Zawiya, Libya, and Sharon Otterman from Cairo. Laura Kasinof contributed reporting from Sana, Yemen.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:40 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/asia/27northkorea.html
February 26, 2011
North Koreans Struggle, and Party Keeps Its Grip
By MARK McDONALD [DPRK] [North Korea] [sucession manuvers that began in 2010, at least noticeably so] [followup] [Cute Leader, Kim Jong un is moved into number two slot formally] [appears that it’s still on?] [but also appears that Kim Jong il has only tenuous control of situation?] [followup] [*]
SEOUL, South Korea — As military and political tensions persist on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea is trudging through another winter of shortages, bitter cold, not much food and precious little fuel.
A recent report from the North described the longest stretch of subzero temperatures since 1945. A number of countries and international aid groups have reported desperate appeals from the government in Pyongyang for humanitarian food aid in the past few weeks. And an epidemic of foot and mouth disease has infected more than 10,000 cows, pigs and draft animals. [*]
But even in the face of such hardships, analysts said, the Communist government showed

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/asia/27northkorea.html
February 26, 2011
North Koreans Struggle, and Party Keeps Its Grip
By MARK McDONALD [DPRK] [North Korea] [sucession manuvers that began in 2010, at least noticeably so] [followup] [Cute Leader, Kim Jong un is moved into number two slot formally] [appears that it’s still on?] [but also appears that Kim Jong il has only tenuous control of situation?] [followup] [*]
SEOUL, South Korea — As military and political tensions persist on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea is trudging through another winter of shortages, bitter cold, not much food and precious little fuel.
A recent report from the North described the longest stretch of subzero temperatures since 1945. A number of countries and international aid groups have reported desperate appeals from the government in Pyongyang for humanitarian food aid in the past few weeks. And an epidemic of foot and mouth disease has infected more than 10,000 cows, pigs and draft animals. [*]
But even in the face of such hardships, analysts said, the Communist government showed no sign of relaxing its political grip or opening up its economy beyond agreeing to some joint ventures with China and allowing some private traders to operate.
“Reforms mean death,” said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert and professor at Kookmin University in Seoul. “It’s a matter of survival and control.” [*]
Recent refugees, scholars of North Korea and South Korean government officials see no signs that the economic hardships are pointing toward political instability. They see no existential threat to Kim Jong-il and his government, whether through civil unrest, political factionalism or a military revolt. [?] [*]
A change in government, as tantalizing as it might be to Seoul and Washington, seems remote. Mr. Kim, who turned 69 this month, looks to be in passably good health. And the apprenticeship of his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, appears to be under way, albeit slowly and quietly.
North Koreans certainly struggle to eke out a living, but they are not starving. And the situation is nothing at all like the so-called Arduous March famine of the mid-1990s. More than a million North Koreans reportedly died from starvation then when aid from Russia stopped, crops failed and the socialist system of food allotments fell apart. [*]
“The gap between the elite and the rest of the country has probably never been wider,” said John Everard, a former British ambassador to North Korea who is now a fellow at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford. But at the same time, he added, “there’s no reason to expect things to change anytime soon.”
China, North Korea’s principal benefactor and major ally, has suggested that the North might do well to consider making some market-style changes. The message is, profit by our example.
But North Korea has “a long track record of listening politely to — and then ignoring — these Chinese requests,” Mr. Everard said. [but it doesn’t hurt] [they are going to abuse the Chinese no matter so?] [*]
China has been making major investments along its long-neglected northeastern border, its Rust Belt, and Chinese enterprises have struck major deals with well-connected North Korean trading companies, principally swapping roads, dams and bridges for iron ore and coal. (Because they are described as “humanitarian development,” the deals circumvent the various international sanctions.)
“They’ve clearly opened up to China in a way that’s unprecedented,” said Bradley O. Babson, chairman of the DPRK Economic Forum of the U.S.-Korea Institute at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
But “I don’t sense they’ve adopted a reform mentality at all,” he added. [*]
A New Year’s Day editorial, which typically sets the political tone and economic priorities for the coming year, said light industry would serve as a kind of defibrillator for stimulating the economy heading into 2012 — the 100th anniversary of the birth of the founding president, Kim Il-sung. A 10-year economic plan announced recently echoed the New Year commentary, which said the principal goal was becoming “a strong and prosperous country.”
“Light industry” was mentioned 17 times, and Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute near Seoul, interpreted the terminology as an oblique reference to Kim Jong-un, the heir apparent.
There are, it must be said, glimpses of change. After a crackdown that started in late 2009, private markets and traders are now being tolerated again, if they pay off the police and enjoy the protection of a political or military godfather. They sell food, black-market grain, household goods and electronics — secondhand televisions, used rice cookers, VHS machines and the like.
“Whatever the Chinese are discarding become prized luxury items in North Korea,” said John S. Park, director of the Korea Working Group at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington.
Orascom, the Egyptian telecommunications giant, is now providing cellular service in many North Korean cities. A student exchange program with Syracuse — the only one in the United States — continues to operate. A new science and technology university also has opened in Pyongyang, built from scratch, with Internet access and classes in English. [*]The school is financed by American and South Korean evangelical Christians.
Hard currency earned from the Kaesong industrial park operated jointly with South Korea will help the North toward its 2012 goal. But the conservative government in Seoul is hardly inclined to let a hundred Kaesongs bloom, mostly for fear that the profits and resources would be funneled to the North Korean military. [*]
Instead, the heavy economic lifting in the near term will have to be done by China. “China is the oxygen mask,” Mr. Park said. “North Korea is not so happy to have to rely on China, but they really have no alternative.”
Analysts said the roadblocks to change remained daunting, principally the Communist elite, which is elderly, hard line and financially illiterate.
Mr. Everard, the former ambassador, described most of them as “very old men, often in their 80s, who have hardly traveled and have no education in bourgeois disciplines like economics.”
After the fall of East Germany, Mr. Everard said, top North Korean leaders were shown videos of former East German officials selling pencils in the streets, as a cautionary lesson on what can befall those who relax their grip on power.
“I think,” he said, “that most of them got the message.”
North Issues a Warning
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea has warned the South Korean military it will shoot at South Korea if the South continues its leaflet campaign, the North’s official media KCNA news agency said on Sunday. South Korea’s military has been dropping leaflets into North Korea about democracy protests in Egypt, [by aircraft?] [*] a legislator said on Friday.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:39 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/asia/27afghanistan.html
February 26, 2011
Taliban Bet on Fear Over Brawn as Tactic
By ALISSA J. RUBIN [Afghanistan] [AfPak] [even as US commits much money and support to Pakistan’s govt] [Obama’s “surge” continues] [after “surge” has success around Kandahar, insurgency strikes back?][use psci 355-455, 469] [more of the long slog that is COIN] [followup] [the spring offensive seems to have slowly begun early this year?] [*]
KABUL, Afghanistan — This year the spring offensive by the Taliban and other insurgent groups has a new and terrifying face: the insurgents are using suicide bombers who create high casualties to sow terror and are planning an assassination campaign as well, Afghan and American military analysts say. [they’ve always done it] [it was just that there was a rules-of-engagement standard before and that appears to have been discarded] [*]
The insurgents’ deadly bet is that fear will trump anger and that Afghans will lose any faith they had in their government’s security forces and eventually turn to the Taliban.
“You have to ask yourself, ‘If you were the Taliban now, what would you do?’ ” said Gen. Jack Keane, who retired from the Army in 2003 and is now a consultant to Gen. David H. Petraeus, the NATO commander for Afghanistan. [*]
Given the massing of NATO forces in the south, the answer appears to be attack the urban, civilian population, creating widespread insecurity in an effort to reinforce the existing

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/asia/27afghanistan.html
February 26, 2011
Taliban Bet on Fear Over Brawn as Tactic
By ALISSA J. RUBIN [Afghanistan] [AfPak] [even as US commits much money and support to Pakistan’s govt] [Obama’s “surge” continues] [after “surge” has success around Kandahar, insurgency strikes back?][use psci 355-455, 469] [more of the long slog that is COIN] [followup] [the spring offensive seems to have slowly begun early this year?] [*]
KABUL, Afghanistan — This year the spring offensive by the Taliban and other insurgent groups has a new and terrifying face: the insurgents are using suicide bombers who create high casualties to sow terror and are planning an assassination campaign as well, Afghan and American military analysts say. [they’ve always done it] [it was just that there was a rules-of-engagement standard before and that appears to have been discarded] [*]
The insurgents’ deadly bet is that fear will trump anger and that Afghans will lose any faith they had in their government’s security forces and eventually turn to the Taliban.
“You have to ask yourself, ‘If you were the Taliban now, what would you do?’ ” said Gen. Jack Keane, who retired from the Army in 2003 and is now a consultant to Gen. David H. Petraeus, the NATO commander for Afghanistan. [*]
Given the massing of NATO forces in the south, the answer appears to be attack the urban, civilian population, creating widespread insecurity in an effort to reinforce the existing resentment of foreign troops and doubts about President Hamid Karzai’s government. [*]
In less than four weeks, 116 Afghans have died in seven suicide attacks, most recently in Faryab Province on Saturday. Two of the attacks, one in Jalalabad on Feb. 19 and another in Kandahar on Feb. 12, involved multiple assailants and were carefully choreographed and skillfully timed to obtain a high death toll and maximum media coverage. In at least one case, the mission was carefully rehearsed.
This is a striking change from Afghan suicide bombings of just six months ago, in which the bombers exacted few casualties. [*]
These new tactics highlight the challenge of an adaptive insurgency with a reservoir of potential fighters, many of them madrasa students in Pakistan’s tribal areas. They show too the increasingly integrated network of insurgent groups that lend their expertise to one another as well as the difficulties the Afghan government has had in rallying its own people to fight them.
President Karzai has compounded the problem, some Afghan analysts say, by insisting that the Taliban are not to blame for the violence and that they are “upset brothers” rather than mortal enemies. [what an idiot] [*]
Underlying the latest attacks are the region’s geopolitics. Both Pakistan and Iran are known to be supporting the Taliban and play out their antagonism to the United States on Afghan soil. “You have to see these attacks in the broader strategic context,” said Haseeb Humayoon, the director of a risk consulting firm here. [why not bleed them dry form Iran’s or Pakistan’s point of view] [it costs Pakistan and Iran almost nothing] [*]
A period of relative calm last year in Afghan cities coincided with an easing of tensions between the Afghans and Pakistan over negotiations with the Taliban. Now the Afghans appear to be trying to negotiate with the Taliban on their own, and there is talk of permanent American bases here, which Pakistan and Iran see as a potential loss of their influence.
“Our neighbors interpret that as Afghans’ seeking guarantors of security other than them,” Mr. Humayoon said.
“Both the international military and our own government are distracted,” he added. “Our government is not focusing enough on rallying people against these forces, and the international military coalition has not focused enough on Pakistan.”
American commanders play down the significance of the attacks in terms of the overall fight in Afghanistan, but Afghan security officials say they see a troubling and potentially crippling development. “It’s not that the American surge operations will be affected by this directly,” said a former Afghan security official. Rather, he predicted that the suicide attacks could preoccupy Afghan security leaders, diminishing their ability to contribute to the fight in the south. [*]
The Americans had not expected the suicide bombings on this scale but were bracing for assassination attempts this spring against officials, said Rear Adm. Gregory J. Smith, NATO’s chief of strategic communications.
The Taliban in the past have been careful not to single out civilians, although civilians are often killed in attacks. At least some Taliban factions seem worried about the latest tactics. Zabiullah Mujahid, the Taliban spokesman for the north and east of the country, said an investigation was under way into the Jalalabad attack, which killed 40 people, nearly half of them civilians. [that’s simply not accurate] [in past they’ve been discriminate] [then the US focused on reducing “collateral damage” and this made others look more closely at insurgents’ civilian casualties] [so Taliban issued proclimation on non combatants that went into effect perhaps 2 years ago] [now that seems discarded?] [*]
“We are taking this issue seriously as we have appointed a delegate to assess the civilians casualties,” he said. “We are not happy when there is even one civilian lost.”
Despite such statements, attacks on civilians are clearly on the rise and the sophistication of the suicide bombings has been striking, Admiral Smith said. American and Afghan officials now believe that Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group that planned the attacks in Mumbai, India, in 2008, has been working with the Haqqani network, which is based in North Waziristan. Lashkar-e-Taiba specializes in planning complex suicide attacks.
“The suicide bombings are, we believe, predominantly requested and funded by Haqqani but facilitated by LET and AQ,” said a senior American military official, referring to Lashkar-e-Taiba and Al Qaeda. “The latter groups provide bombers and material in exchange for money. Haqqani chooses targets.” [it’s well known that Pakistan army-ISI support LeT in past] [*]
The bombing of the Kabul Bank branch in Jalalabad used a formula Lashkar-e-Taiba has used elsewhere: multiple attackers, a first bomber to clear the way for the others and the holding of one bomber in reserve to attack the police and medical workers who arrive to help. Other signatures included having a suicide bomber on a cellphone with a handler, as was the case in the Mumbai attacks.
What cannot be ignored, however, is the situation across the border in Pakistan. While American troops have made clear gains in uprooting the Taliban from Kandahar and large areas of Helmand Province, Pakistan has not made similar strides in ousting the Taliban from the tribal areas, according to analysts here. The Haqqani network, among the most brutal, remains anchored in North Waziristan despite a stream of drone strikes by the Central Intelligence Agency.
And in bad news for Afghanistan, a little-noticed peace deal took place late last year between the Haqqani network and Shiite tribes in the Kurram Agency in Pakistan, which opened up a new route for Haqqani agents to enter Afghanistan, [*]American and Afghan intelligence officials said. A number of fighters have been observed crossing the border over the past several weeks, American intelligence officials said.
No one yet seems to have figured out how to deal with the two largest underlying problems: the poor performance of the Afghan government, which makes many of the country’s citizens reluctant to fight for it, and the millions of Pashtuns in the tribal areas who feel they are unrepresented and even discriminated against and are willing to cross the border to fight in Afghanistan. [*]
“You still have two major factors,” General Keane said, “the ineffectiveness of the central government and the Pakistani sanctuaries.” [how does Keane manage to get to the media so effectively?] [is he still AEI?] [*]
The situation is strikingly reminiscent of Iraq in 2005, when that country’s cities were gripped by violence, the government was unable to keep the people safe and fighters flowed in from other countries. It took four years to stem that violence, and an influx of troops like the one that Americans have now carried out in Afghanistan. The rash of recent bombings risks undermining the psychological advantage that had come with increased American troop strength in southern Afghanistan.
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:38 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/asia/27kabul.html
February 26, 2011
Suicide Attack Continues Afghan Trend
By ALISSA J. RUBIN [Afghanistan] [AfPak] [even as US commits much money and support to Pakistan’s govt] [Obama’s “surge” continues] [after “surge” has success around Kandahar, insurgency strikes back?][use psci 355-455, 469] [more of the long slog that is COIN] [followup] [the spring offensive seems to have slowly begun early this year?] [*]
KABUL, Afghanistan — A playing field in a remote area of northwest Afghanistan where a crowd had gathered was the most recent target for a suicide bomber who detonated himself on Saturday, in the seventh suicide attack in Afghanistan in less than a month. [*]
The attack in Faryab Province killed at least 3 people and wounded 30, said the provincial governor, Abdul Haq Shafaq. The crowd had gathered for a game of buzkashi, which involves men on horseback trying to grab a dead goat from each other. The governor said the attacker was a 17-year-old boy. It was unclear how officials could judge his age.
“By targeting civilians, our enemies are now losing their honor among people,” Mr. Shafaq

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/asia/27kabul.html
February 26, 2011
Suicide Attack Continues Afghan Trend
By ALISSA J. RUBIN [Afghanistan] [AfPak] [even as US commits much money and support to Pakistan’s govt] [Obama’s “surge” continues] [after “surge” has success around Kandahar, insurgency strikes back?][use psci 355-455, 469] [more of the long slog that is COIN] [followup] [the spring offensive seems to have slowly begun early this year?] [*]
KABUL, Afghanistan — A playing field in a remote area of northwest Afghanistan where a crowd had gathered was the most recent target for a suicide bomber who detonated himself on Saturday, in the seventh suicide attack in Afghanistan in less than a month. [*]
The attack in Faryab Province killed at least 3 people and wounded 30, said the provincial governor, Abdul Haq Shafaq. The crowd had gathered for a game of buzkashi, which involves men on horseback trying to grab a dead goat from each other. The governor said the attacker was a 17-year-old boy. It was unclear how officials could judge his age.
“By targeting civilians, our enemies are now losing their honor among people,” Mr. Shafaq said. [*]
“Faryab is the province where the Taliban were badly defeated, and now they are trying to show that our secure province is insecure and they want to prove they are here in this province,” he said. Clearly upset, he added: “The people who were killed and injured, they were all civilians, they had nothing to do with the Afghan government. Why, why would they target them?” [*]
The bombing came as the National Directorate of Intelligence held a lengthy news conference in Kabul, where its spokesman, Lutfullah Mashal, condemned the insurgents’ recent tactic of attacking civilians. He described the bombers as primarily young men who were cajoled, bribed and threatened into carrying out the deadly acts.
“These people try forcefully to force teenagers — 18-, 17-, 15-year-old boys — to do these acts,” he said. “They threaten them that they will harm their mother and brothers, their family members, if they don’t do the attack,” he said.
Mr. Mashal said that 90 percent of the suicide bombers were from Pakistan. But Afghans often point fingers at Pakistan and accuse it of responsibility for much of the violence that happens here.
NATO military officials said they had little information about the backgrounds of suicide bombers in Afghanistan. While many come from the Pakistani tribal areas, a number of them are of Afghan origin, making it murky whether they should be considered Pakistani or Afghan; both groups speak Pashto and have an identical culture. [the tend to be foreign fighters even if only from Pakistan] [the also to be young: 13-low 20s] [it’s not the leaders but young impressionable kids] [*]
The Afghan intelligence directorate presented would-bombers in handcuffs at the news conference, all showing markedly different emotions. All of them had been told that if they became suicide bombers they would go to heaven and that the people they were killing, even the Afghans, were infidels.
A 14-year-old Pakistani boy, Akhtar Nawaz, who had only a faint fuzz on his upper lip, spoke softly, saying that he had been pressured into attempting a suicide bombing while he was attending a madrasa in Miram Shah. [*]
“A man named Gul Agha met me after school and he said, ‘You will do an attack where you sacrifice yourself.’ I told him, ‘No, I don’t want to do a martyrdom attack,’ ” Akhtar said. “Then he started forcing me. He said infidels have come to Afghanistan and you need to fight them and if you don’t, we will harm you.”
They trained him for about six weeks, teaching him to shoot, and then gave him an explosive vest and told him to go across the Afghan border, kill two soldiers and then detonate the vest when he was inside the Afghan Army base, he said. Afghan soldiers saw him crossing and caught him.
The second would-be suicide bomber was Ghami, a 19-year-old shopkeeper from Kandahar, who was recruited first to fight American soldiers in the Arghandab District, but was persuaded to become a suicide bomber by a recruiter named Mirwais who promised him that he would go to heaven, Ghami said.
“Mirwais was telling me about heaven and the benefits of heaven and the way he was telling me about it, it was as if he had the keys to heaven,” he said. “He was saying, ‘Heaven is right near you. All you need to do is to go ahead and sacrifice yourself.’ ” [sounds nearly identical to the one surviving jihadis from Mumbai attacks in Nov 2008!] [*]
Worried that Ghami might drift away, Mirwais added that he would pay his family 500,000 Pakistani rupees, or about $5,800. He smiled as he spoke and said that he was being treated well and that the food was very good in the intelligence department’s prison. The third would-be bomber was also from Pakistan. He said that he, too, had been told that it was holy to kill Afghans and that when he arrived in Laghman Province in eastern Afghanistan he was surprised to see people praying because he had thought they were all infidels.
Sharifullah Sahak contributed reporting.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:38 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/25/the_islamic_republic_of_talibanistan
Foreign Policy
[Accessed 2/26/11 9:32:34 AM] [*]
The Islamic Republic of Talibanistan
Why the West should stop fighting with the Taliban for hearts and minds, and start letting the Islamists try their hand at governing.
BY SALEEM H. ALI | FEBRUARY 25, 2011 [commentary] [growing number suggesting some sort of deal with Taliban] [it’s already part of surge to find reconcilable Talib] [last summer (July) Richard Haas floated plan division of Afghanistan into federal entities (Pashtunistan, others)] [more and more are moving that direction] [use psci 355-455] [recommending a Haas-like solution for AfPak] [see in July, 2010] [*]
For all their strategy sessions, policymakers in Washington are still clearly vexed by the Taliban's staying power in Afghanistan. But the reasons behind the Taliban's support may not be complicated at all -- though combating them may require a fundamental change in the West's military and political strategy. [*]
The fact is that the Taliban and other Islamist elements are popular in the region out of which they operate, the Pashtun tribal belt between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This has always been an utterly conservative locale where the local population has generally favored Islamic fundamentalism. [they are simple folks] [period] [not much has changed form the

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/25/the_islamic_republic_of_talibanistan
Foreign Policy
[Accessed 2/26/11 9:32:34 AM] [*]
The Islamic Republic of Talibanistan
Why the West should stop fighting with the Taliban for hearts and minds, and start letting the Islamists try their hand at governing.
BY SALEEM H. ALI | FEBRUARY 25, 2011 [commentary] [growing number suggesting some sort of deal with Taliban] [it’s already part of surge to find reconcilable Talib] [last summer (July) Richard Haas floated plan division of Afghanistan into federal entities (Pashtunistan, others)] [more and more are moving that direction] [use psci 355-455] [recommending a Haas-like solution for AfPak] [see in July, 2010] [*]
For all their strategy sessions, policymakers in Washington are still clearly vexed by the Taliban's staying power in Afghanistan. But the reasons behind the Taliban's support may not be complicated at all -- though combating them may require a fundamental change in the West's military and political strategy. [*]
The fact is that the Taliban and other Islamist elements are popular in the region out of which they operate, the Pashtun tribal belt between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This has always been an utterly conservative locale where the local population has generally favored Islamic fundamentalism. [they are simple folks] [period] [not much has changed form the Great Game (British colonial days and Russia intrigues)] [*]Even going back to the 1930s, Waziristan's rallying flag against the British was a simple white calligraphic "Allah-Akbar" (God is Great) on red fabric.
Although the West and its allies in Pakistan and Afghanistan have been terrified by the specter of a second Islamic republic, there is a way to mitigate the threat: the creation of a semiautonomous region where Islamists can exercise their draconian system of law -- if that is what the people agree to impose upon themselves. [it means sacrificing brining democracy or even women’s rights to Afghanistan] [but it may be what the US can do while still maintaining America’s interests] [remember, these are Sunni jihadis-islamists] [there may come a time when the US needs that on Iran’s eastern flank—in fact, with Jasmine toppling nation-states, perhaps the day is “nigh at hand”] [I don’t usually go biblical here but it seemed appropriate] [*] Just as the creation of Pakistan involved a migration, or hijrah, the radical elements in both countries who yearn for an Islamic emirate can be allowed to migrate to this hinterland and help build their new political order.
Of course, the terms of such a divorce would have to be very carefully negotiated because radical Islamists like the Taliban have traditionally had expansionary tendencies. They would need to reject international terrorism and give assurances to neighboring states that they would not intervene in those countries' territories. [*]Under those conditions, the new area could maintain its economic relations with the rest of the region, depriving the territory's Islamist rulers of the excuse that they are suffering unfairly from having been made an economic pariah.
Just as Washington has acknowledged that it cannot simply disregard popular support in Egypt for the Muslim Brotherhood, the West must also come to terms with the Taliban's base of support. If a proper referendum were held in Afghanistan -- something that the Taliban says it would support -- it's possible that in some parts of Waziristan and in eastern Afghanistan a majority of the public would favor Taliban rule. [consider Gates’ statement in today’s govt] [America simply cannot afford that sort of nation-building operation any longer, however noble the purpose] [it couldn’t afford it after 9/11 and we have done it twice] [the results have been close to disastrous for the US] [there’s a reason democratization was always implict during CW] [making it explicit gives US little room to manuver when another interest in conflict] [US can help foster and attempt to constrain negative forces but locals have to determine their own outcomes] [sometimes that means stability has to trump what American values] [I don’t think it has to come down to values or interests] [it’s interest, shaped by American values—that America’s long history and there’s nothing especially cynical about it] [**]
Because of Islamist evangelism and population growth, an increasing number of Pakistanis and Afghans are disposed to favoring an austere version of sharia law as well. In Pakistan's frontier province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Islamists were freely elected into power in one recent election. A poll conducted in Waziristan by the New America Foundation in September 2010 revealed not only that more than 87 percent of the local population opposes the West's military presence, but that parties with Islamist inclinations (Pakistan Tehreek-Insaaf, Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamiat Ulema-e Islam) would gain almost half of the votes in a free and open election.
The United States and NATO shouldn't dismiss out of hand the idea of giving the Taliban and their Islamist sympathizers some measure of political self-rule. There's no denying that the Islamists' brutish and austere vision of justice is foreign to the sensibilities of modern minds in the region and the Western world. Unlike Egypt's Muslim Brothers, the Taliban are not willing to endorse the establishment of a democracy in Afghanistan. Their stated desire is to establish a theocracy where personal piety and religious knowledge would be the most important criteria for attaining public office. Nonetheless, giving the Islamists an autonomous region would force them to prove their political bona fides.
Within Pakistan's conservative establishment, there is a persistent folklore of Taliban justice: They claim that the Islamists reduced crime and brought a pristine sense of order to the frontier. The same is true for conservative Afghans who recall the incorruptibility of the Taliban mullahs, despite their draconian punishments. Giving the Islamists an autonomous region would put those memories to the test. If the West allowed the Taliban to shoulder responsibility for a self-claimed "sinless state," the Islamists could no longer blame their destructive indiscretions on the vicissitudes of war. They could no longer earn money through the drug trade -- currently, the Taliban encourage opium cultivation as an instrument of war, earning an estimated $400 million per year -- because one of the claims to piety during their heyday was a ban on opium. And when they are responsible for their own economy, they will realize the need for a broader education system than their meager madrasas -- those religious institutions in their current form cannot produce doctors or any other professionals needed for a functioning contemporary society.
Indeed, once the Taliban are responsible for maintaining order and developing a functional society that they can take pride in, they will most likely compromise on many international policy issues. (One need only look back to 1997, when Afghanistan's Taliban-led government sent delegations to the United States to charm their ostensible enemy into negotiating a pipeline deal.) Indeed, it's easy to imagine that, once in charge of a government, the Taliban would undergo an organic process of moderation, learning to safeguard basic human rights in an explicitly Islamic framework. Indeed, they could be assisted by international entities such as the Organization of the Islamic Conference, which has adopted a series of conventions to develop means of addressing terrorism in states that embrace sharia law.
The silent majority of Pakistanis and Afghans who are intimidated by the Islamists would also be relieved of all residents who are clamoring to live under Islamist rule. Devotees of the Taliban myth could simply be directed to the autonomous region, leaving the rest of the country free to develop its own modernist interpretation of Islam. Similarly, those in the frontier who would prefer a secular or modernist Islamic state should be allowed to migrate to the other side. [though as author suggested earlier, the Islamists have a tendency to expand so that would have to be checked insofar as possible] [people forget that a big reason America is in AfPak is the Pak part: parade of horribles if Islamist controlled nuclear weapons!!!] [*]
It may sound far-fetched, but there's actually precedent for such a radical solution. The world just witnessed a referendum in Sudan to end a terrible war through partition; a decade earlier, East Timor had to be divided up by the international community. [not very good example—still a basket case] [but author is correct that it is better than 1970s-1990] [*] In both cases, religion proved to be among the irreconcilable differences for the local populations, just as it is in Afghanistan and Pakistan today. (For all practical purposes, the radical Islam of the Taliban and their allies is an entirely different religion from the moderate Islam that prevails elsewhere in the region.) When you're dealing with absolutist ideologies, sometimes a divorce is the only solution possible. Islamists are also quite amenable to the process of a referendum as a policy tool, given their repeated call for referenda in areas such as Kashmir.
It is quite likely that some of the more hard-core Taliban in Waziristan may reject such a proposal because of their grander visions of a caliphate. But if such a generous proposal is rejected, the United States and its allies can earn far more legitimacy for a renewed military strategy. [*]The Taliban propaganda against drone strikes -- that they are an "assault on Islam" -- would then be rendered moot as well. This is similar to how the military operation against the Swat Taliban got support from a majority of Pakistanis after a peace deal was violated by the Taliban.
And one shouldn't forget that in the event a referendum is held, there is an outside chance that a majority of the population in this region, whatever its current sympathies, could be convinced to reject the prospect of Taliban rule outright.
As the United States considers serious talks with the Taliban, it should be prepared to place such a proposition on the table. It would wall off Afghanistan and Pakistan from the internal strife that is ruining those states. Wounded egos in the region and the West may interpret the plan as a retreat, but they will soon realize the virtues of its pragmatism. [of course it’s not really wounded egos but political price] [opposition will exploit is in predictble ways ][*]
Saleem H. Ali is a professor at the University of Vermont and the author of Islam and Education: Conflict and Conformity in Pakistan's Madrassahs.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 10:03 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/iran-and-syria-agree-on-military-training-cooperation-1.345826
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/26/11 9:25:20 AM] [*]
Published 12:57 26.02.11
Latest update 12:57 26.02.11
Iran and Syria agree on military training cooperation
[Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [meanwhile, Iran sent two warships through Suez, first time since before 1979] [this is not a surprise to anyone: that Iran risked transit in Suez announced they and Syria were planning something] [Israelis analysts have been expecting this and more!] [clearly provocative] [*]
The agreement further strengthens ties between Iran and Syria, both hostile to Israel, as Tehran seeks to bolster its position as a regional powerhouse.
By Reuters
Iran and Syria have agreed to cooperate on naval training, Iran's official news agency reported on Saturday after two Iranian warships docked in a Syrian port. [this shows a couple things, both bad] [1) Iran is feeling empowered by Jasmine Rev (especially Egypt no longer being regional counterpower); 2) Arab Syria sliding deeper into a relationship with

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/iran-and-syria-agree-on-military-training-cooperation-1.345826
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/26/11 9:25:20 AM] [*]
Published 12:57 26.02.11
Latest update 12:57 26.02.11
Iran and Syria agree on military training cooperation
[Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [meanwhile, Iran sent two warships through Suez, first time since before 1979] [this is not a surprise to anyone: that Iran risked transit in Suez announced they and Syria were planning something] [Israelis analysts have been expecting this and more!] [clearly provocative] [*]
The agreement further strengthens ties between Iran and Syria, both hostile to Israel, as Tehran seeks to bolster its position as a regional powerhouse.
By Reuters
Iran and Syria have agreed to cooperate on naval training, Iran's official news agency reported on Saturday after two Iranian warships docked in a Syrian port. [this shows a couple things, both bad] [1) Iran is feeling empowered by Jasmine Rev (especially Egypt no longer being regional counterpower); 2) Arab Syria sliding deeper into a relationship with historical enemy (Iran) for short-term gains] [one other issue: it means Iran has new proximate pipeline to Hezbollah in Lebanon] [**]
The agreement further strengthens ties between Iran and Syria, both hostile to Israel, as Tehran seeks to bolster its position as a regional powerhouse amid political upheaval in many Middle Eastern states.
"The two parties will cooperate with each other in training issues and the exchange of personnel," IRNA quoted the agreement, signed by the commanders of both navies, as saying. Syrian officials do not comment on security matters. [*]
The two Iranian ships arrived in Syria on Wednesday after passing through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, the first Iranian navy vessels to do so since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Egypt's decision to allow the ships through its canal was made under an interim government after the fall of President Hosni Mubarak. Iran is hoping to restore ties, cut for decades, with Cairo, an U.S. ally which has a peace treaty with Israel. [*]
Iran has welcomed the fall of U.S. ally Mubarak as a sign the Washington's influence in the Middle East is on the wane.
The United States has led international moves to tighten sanctions over Iran's nuclear program which it fears could be aimed at making atomic weapons, something Tehran denies.
"The message of the ships is to announce the peace and friendship to Islamic countries and the region and attempt to strengthen relations between the countries," Iranian navy
commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari was quoted as saying by the semi-official Fars news agency.
Defence Minister Ehud Barak has said the move was a provocation but not a threat.
"If they were bringing rockets or weapons or explosives to Hamas or Hezbollah, we would have probably acted against them," he told CNN on Thursday.
Iran ambassador to Syria, Ahmad Mousavi, said Iran was strengthening its geopolitical status but had no desire for war.
"Iran's position in the world, considering developments in the region, is very powerful ... it does not seek to wage war against anyone," he was quoted as saying by IRNA.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:59 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/iran-rejects-iaea-report-alleging-it-is-developing-nuclear-weapons-1.345814
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/26/11 9:21:27 AM] [*]
Published 10:59 26.02.11
Iran rejects IAEA report alleging it is developing nuclear weapons
[Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Arab-Persian Guld] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [Israeli media reporting today’s news about the IAEA (UN) and Iran] [IAEA issued new report (quarterly or annual?)] [*]
UN watchdog report claims new information reveals Iran's motivation to develop nuclear bomb, but states that Bushehr reactor is encountering problems. [neither are news really] [but this must be somewhat relief to Netanyahu?] [*]
By News Agencies Tags: Israel news Iran nuclear US
Iran rejected charges by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it was working on a nuclear missile, Iran's official news agency IRNA reported Saturday.
Iran's envoy to the international nuclear watchdog, Ali-Asqar Soltanieh, said Tehran was

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/iran-rejects-iaea-report-alleging-it-is-developing-nuclear-weapons-1.345814
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/26/11 9:21:27 AM] [*]
Published 10:59 26.02.11
Iran rejects IAEA report alleging it is developing nuclear weapons
[Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Arab-Persian Guld] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [Israeli media reporting today’s news about the IAEA (UN) and Iran] [IAEA issued new report (quarterly or annual?)] [*]
UN watchdog report claims new information reveals Iran's motivation to develop nuclear bomb, but states that Bushehr reactor is encountering problems. [neither are news really] [but this must be somewhat relief to Netanyahu?] [*]
By News Agencies Tags: Israel news Iran nuclear US
Iran rejected charges by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it was working on a nuclear missile, Iran's official news agency IRNA reported Saturday.
Iran's envoy to the international nuclear watchdog, Ali-Asqar Soltanieh, said Tehran was not developing nuclear weapons and insisted that the IAEA report had confirmed the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear programs. [*]
Part of an IAEA report made public Friday said that because of "new information recently received," it had further concerns about the possible past and ongoing development of an Iranian nuclear missile.
A senior official close to the investigation said material received from one or more member states would "provide additional information on what happened after 2003" if it was confirmed.
U.S. intelligence agencies had earlier said that Iran likely stopped working on nuclear weapons in 2003. But Iran denied the veracity of that section of the report, saying the information was unsourced and ambiguous. [*]
The UN watchdog report also revealed that Iran's nuclear reactor in Bushehr has been encountering problems, putting into question the site's future.
In a surprise development, the report said Iran had said it "would have to unload fuel assemblies" from the core of the Russian-built Bushehr reactor, which Iranian officials have previously said would soon start generating electricity. [woowho] [*]
The Iranian report had said that all 163 fuel rods would have to be removed from the reactor core. The diplomatic sources said that there were problems with all the fuel rods.
Nuclear power experts noted that smaller problems with nuclear fuel rods are common when starting up a reactor, but that the replacement of the entire core was an issue of a much greater magnitude.
Iran did not give a reason for its move, which was announced a month after Russia said NATO should investigate a computer virus attack on Bushehr last year, saying the incident could have triggered a nuclear disaster on the scale of Chernobyl.
Iran began fuelling Bushehr in August and officials have said the reactor will begin producing energy early this year, a delay of several months following the spread of the global computer virus, which is believed mainly to have affected Iran. Iranian officials have confirmed the Stuxnet virus hit staff computers at Bushehr but said it had not affected major systems.
Security experts say the computer worm may have been a state-sponsored attack on Iran's nuclear program and may have originated in the United States or Israel, or even Russia, which has come to have serious doubts about Iran's insistence that its nuclear activities are purely for peaceful purposes. [hum, which nation-state(s) could that have been??] [*]
One high-level diplomat in Vienna who spoke on condition of anonymity said "it isn't our job to speculate about the reasons." But an expert in Washington, David Albright, said it raised questions about Iran's nuclear know-how. "It raises questions of whether Iran can operate a modern nuclear reactor safely," he said. [*]
"The stakes are very high. You can have a Chernobyl-style accident with this kind of reactor, and there's lots of questions about that possibility in the region," Albright added, referring to the April 1986 nuclear plant meltdown at Chernobyl, in the Ukraine.
Enriched uranium can be used to fuel nuclear power plants, which is Iran's stated aim, or provide material for bombs if processed much further.
Iranian officials told the IAEA on Monday that they plan to operate a second uranium enrichment plant by the summer, the report said. It is at an underground location near Qom, which Iran kept secret until September 2009.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:58 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=209963&R=R1
Jerusalem Post
[Accessed 2/26/11 9:15:05 AM] [*]
Erdogan speaks out against UN sanctions on Libya
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
26/02/2011 [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [Israeli media reporting on Syria (where Iranian ships just docked after Suez transit)!] [Israeli news reporting on PM Erdogan (Turkey) reproach to int’l community over Libya?] [is he kidding?] [*]
"Int'l community acting out of concern about Tripoli's oil reserves and not its people," [well, that’s partly true] [but so what?] [*] Turkish PM says as UNSC mulls sanctions to punish Gaddafi; UK, Germany say sanctions should be implemented immediately.
ANKARA, Turkey — Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged the United Nations not to impose sanctions on Libya, warning Saturday that the Libyan people would suffer most, not Muammar Gaddafi's regime.
Erdogan also suggested the international community might be acting more out of concern

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=209963&R=R1
Jerusalem Post
[Accessed 2/26/11 9:15:05 AM] [*]
Erdogan speaks out against UN sanctions on Libya
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
26/02/2011 [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [Israeli media reporting on Syria (where Iranian ships just docked after Suez transit)!] [Israeli news reporting on PM Erdogan (Turkey) reproach to int’l community over Libya?] [is he kidding?] [*]
"Int'l community acting out of concern about Tripoli's oil reserves and not its people," [well, that’s partly true] [but so what?] [*] Turkish PM says as UNSC mulls sanctions to punish Gaddafi; UK, Germany say sanctions should be implemented immediately.
ANKARA, Turkey — Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged the United Nations not to impose sanctions on Libya, warning Saturday that the Libyan people would suffer most, not Muammar Gaddafi's regime.
Erdogan also suggested the international community might be acting more out of concern about Libya's oil reserves than about the welfare of the country's people.
Erdogan spoke hours before UN Security Council members were to meet again to discuss ways to punish the Libyan leader for violent attacks against anti-government protesters. Up for consideration are an arms embargo against the Libyan government and a travel ban and asset freeze against Gaddafi, his relatives and key regime members. [interesting position] [he must think Qaddafi is going to make it?] [*]
"The people are already struggling to find food, how will you feed the Libyan people?" Erdogan asked. "Sanctions, an intervention, would force the Libyan people, who are already up against hunger and violence, into a more desperate situation." [perhaps it’s concern for the people but I would use the same cynacism he’s used in questioning int’l community] [*]
"We call on the international community to act with conscience, justice, laws and universal humane values — not out of oil concerns," he said.
But German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister David Cameron talked on the phone Saturday and agreed the UN Security Council should approve harsh sanctions against the Libyan regime as soon as possible, Merkel's spokesman, Christoph Steegmans said in a statement.
Merkel and Cameron also were in favor of sanctions against Libya by the European Union, he said.
In Washington, the White House announced sweeping new sanctions and temporarily abandoned its embassy in Tripoli as a final flight carrying American citizens left the embattled capital.
The UN Security Council was meeting Saturday for the second time in two days, under pressure from Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to take concrete action to protect civilians in Libya. On Friday, Libya's ambassador to the UN beseeched the council to help halt the deadly attacks that his once-close comrade has unleashed on his critics. [*]
"I hope that within hours, not days, they can do something tangible, effective to stop what they are doing there — Gaddafi and his sons — against our people," Ambassador Mohamed Shalgham said after addressing the council.
A draft sanctions resolution circulated by France, Britain, Germany and the United States also would refer Gaddafi's violent crackdown to the International Criminal Court so it can investigate possible crimes against humanity. [White House said US would train all its IC resources on Libya to make a case!] [they are recording everyting Col!] [*]
Ban said some estimates indicate more than 1,000 people have been killed in less than two weeks since the protests broke out in the North African country, and that many people cannot leave their homes for fear of being shot.
"In these circumstances, the loss of time means more loss of lives," the UN chief said.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:57 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/us/26leak.html
February 25, 2011
U.S. Gathered Personal Data on Times Reporter in Case Against Ex-C.I.A. Agent
By CHARLIE SAVAGE [Obama white house] [residuals from Bush, most prominently but back to FISA’s passing in 1978?] [112th congress, 1st session] [bureaucracy] [TSPs] [NSA spy program and data mining, FISA, amendments thereto, and so on] [the conflict with civil liberties involving freedom of press and criticize one’s govt] [followup] [use psci 350, 355-455, 469] [*]
WASHINGTON — Federal law enforcement officials, trying to uncover the sources of a New York Times reporter, James Risen, obtained extensive records about his phone calls, finances and travel history, according to a court brief filed late Thursday. [*]
Prosecutors gathered “various telephone records showing calls made” by Mr. Risen, as well as “credit card and bank records and certain records of his airline travel” and three credit reports listing his financial accounts, the document said. [*]
The brief was filed by lawyers for a former Central Intelligence Agency official, Jeffrey A.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/us/26leak.html
February 25, 2011
U.S. Gathered Personal Data on Times Reporter in Case Against Ex-C.I.A. Agent
By CHARLIE SAVAGE [Obama white house] [residuals from Bush, most prominently but back to FISA’s passing in 1978?] [112th congress, 1st session] [bureaucracy] [TSPs] [NSA spy program and data mining, FISA, amendments thereto, and so on] [the conflict with civil liberties involving freedom of press and criticize one’s govt] [followup] [use psci 350, 355-455, 469] [*]
WASHINGTON — Federal law enforcement officials, trying to uncover the sources of a New York Times reporter, James Risen, obtained extensive records about his phone calls, finances and travel history, according to a court brief filed late Thursday. [*]
Prosecutors gathered “various telephone records showing calls made” by Mr. Risen, as well as “credit card and bank records and certain records of his airline travel” and three credit reports listing his financial accounts, the document said. [*]
The brief was filed by lawyers for a former Central Intelligence Agency official, Jeffrey A. Sterling, who has been charged with leaking classified information to an unnamed reporter. The details of Mr. Sterling’s indictment, which was unsealed earlier this year, made clear that prosecutors believe he was a source for Mr. Risen’s 2006 book, “State of War: The Secret History of the C.I.A. and the Bush Administration.” [*]
One of the book’s chapters details a C.I.A. program in 2000 that aimed to disrupt Iran’s nuclear research by giving it blueprints for a nuclear device containing a hidden design flaw. Mr. Risen portrayed the effort as botched, saying it probably helped Iran gain valuable expertise.
The indictment made clear that the government had obtained records of the men’s e-mail and phone contacts. But those could have been obtained by gaining access to Mr. Sterling’s accounts alone. The new brief, which was reported Thursday evening by Politico, showed that law enforcement officials have also extensively investigated Mr. Risen. [Risen kept telling people his phone and email was being tapped] [he was right] [*]
The brief did not say when the government obtained the records about Mr. Risen, and the Justice Department declined to discuss the matter. Its investigation into Mr. Sterling dates to the administration of George W. Bush, and Mr. Risen was twice subpoenaed — once under Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey, and again under the current attorney general, Eric H. Holder Jr., Mr. Mukasey’s successor in the Obama administration. [from Bush to Obama] [continuity in USFP] [*]
Mr. Risen has refused to talk about his sources. The first subpoena lapsed when a grand jury expired, and a federal judge eventually quashed the second subpoena. It remained unclear whether prosecutors would try to subpoena him again for Mr. Sterling’s trial.
Under Justice Department rules, prosecutors may seek subpoenas of journalists for testimony or for their phone records only if the information sought is essential and cannot be obtained in another way.
In addition, the attorney general must personally sign off after balancing the public’s interest in the news against its interest in effective law enforcement. Those regulations do not cover other kinds of personal records for journalists, however.
It also remained unclear whether the phone records came from Mr. Risen’s account. Justice Department rules require notifying a reporter within 90 days if his or her phone records have been subpoenaed. Mr. Risen said that he had received no such notification, but that he believed that the Justice Department had been “harassing” him because of his reporting during the Bush administration.
“This seems to bolster the view that I was targeted by the government,” Mr. Risen said. “They basically tried to get everything about me. I’m not sure what else they could have gotten except my kids’ birth certificates.”
Lucy A. Dalglish, the executive director of the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, portrayed the scrutinizing of Mr. Risen as part of a crackdown on leaking that is making it increasingly difficult to report on security and intelligence matters. (The Obama administration, in its first two years, indicted more officials for leaking information to reporters than any previous one.)
“Is it creepy? You bet it is,” Ms. Dalglish said. “But that’s how the feds investigate crimes. The problem is that Jim and other reporters are going to have a much more difficult time in the future having government whistleblowers talk to them, and that’s the reason they do this.”[*]
Scott Shane contributed reporting.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:08 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/weekinreview/27pirates.html
February 26, 2011
Suddenly, a Rise in Piracy’s Price
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN [Obama white house] [112th congress, 1st session] [foreign-policy, national-security bureaucracy, mostly] [continuity in USFP] [piracy] [the failed state, Somalia and myriad challenges] [followup] [*]
AT some point, Thomas Jefferson realized, you just can’t do business with pirates any more.
For years, the infant American government, along with many others, had accepted the humiliating practice of paying tribute — essentially mob-style protection fees — to a handful of rulers in the Barbary states so that American ships crossing the Mediterranean would not get hijacked. But in 1801, Tripoli’s pasha, Yusuf Karamanli, tried to jack up his prices. Jefferson said no. And when the strongman turned his pirates loose on American ships, Jefferson sent in the Navy to bombard Tripoli, starting a war that eventually brought the Barbary states to their knees. [*]Rampant piracy went to sleep for nearly 200 years.
The question now is: Are we nearing another enough-is-enough moment with pirates?
On Tuesday, Somali pirates shot and killed four American hostages. A single hostage

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/weekinreview/27pirates.html
February 26, 2011
Suddenly, a Rise in Piracy’s Price
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN [Obama white house] [112th congress, 1st session] [foreign-policy, national-security bureaucracy, mostly] [continuity in USFP] [piracy] [the failed state, Somalia and myriad challenges] [followup] [*]
AT some point, Thomas Jefferson realized, you just can’t do business with pirates any more.
For years, the infant American government, along with many others, had accepted the humiliating practice of paying tribute — essentially mob-style protection fees — to a handful of rulers in the Barbary states so that American ships crossing the Mediterranean would not get hijacked. But in 1801, Tripoli’s pasha, Yusuf Karamanli, tried to jack up his prices. Jefferson said no. And when the strongman turned his pirates loose on American ships, Jefferson sent in the Navy to bombard Tripoli, starting a war that eventually brought the Barbary states to their knees. [*]Rampant piracy went to sleep for nearly 200 years.
The question now is: Are we nearing another enough-is-enough moment with pirates?
On Tuesday, Somali pirates shot and killed four American hostages. A single hostage intentionally killed by these pirates had been almost unheard of; four dead was unprecedented. Until now, the first thing that came to mind about Somalia’s buccaneers was that they were brash and mercurial. Just a few weeks ago they let go some Sri Lankan fishermen after they essentially said, “You’re poor, like us.” They were seen as a nuisance, albeit an expensive one, but not a lethal threat.
Exactly what happened Tuesday is still murky. Pirates in the Arabian Sea had hijacked a sailboat skippered by a retired couple from California, and when the American Navy closed in, the pirates got twitchy. Navy Seals rushed aboard but it was too late. It’s still not clear why the pirates would want to kill the hostages when their business model, which has raked in more than $100 million in the past few years, is based on ransoming captives alive.
“Of course, I do not know what the U.S. will do in response to this latest atrocity,” said Frank Lambert, a professor at Purdue who is an expert on the Barbary pirates. But, he said, “Jefferson advocated an armed response and eventually war against Tripoli for far less provocation.”
For years now, Somali pirates with fiberglass skiffs and salt-rusted Kalashnikovs have been commandeering ships along one of the most congested shipping routes in the world — the Gulf of Aden, a vital conduit for Middle East oil to Europe and the United States. More than 50 vessels are now held captive, from Thai fishing trawlers to European supertankers, with more than 800 hostages. Those numbers grow each year. [*]
But the international response has been limited, partly because the most promising remedies are intensely complicated and risky. Western powers, including the United States, have sent warships to cruise Somalia’s coast and discourage attacks. When a vessel is hijacked, ship owners cough up a ransom, nowadays in the neighborhood of $5 million, and most of that cost gets passed to the end user — consumers. Until recently, most hostages would emerge unharmed, albeit skinny and pale from being locked in a filthy room. The average time in captivity is around six months.
But recently the pirates have been getting more vicious; reports have emerged of beatings, of being hung upside down, even of being forced at gunpoint to join in raids. And now the pirates have gunned down four Americans.
“I think there’s going to be some type of retaliation,” said a European diplomat in Nairobi, Kenya, who trades ideas on anti-piracy strategies with other diplomats and was instructed not to speak publicly about the issues. “I could see the Americans going after the pirate bosses, the organizers, maybe even blockade some of the ports that they use,” he speculated. “I don’t think the Americans are going to invade Somalia, because of Iraq and Afghanistan, but they can use local allies.” Another obvious possibility would be American Special Forces, who have killed terrorism suspects in Somalia.
The American government isn’t revealing its plans but officials suggest — as long as they are not quoted by name — that the killings of the four Americans could be a game-changer. “We get it,” said one State Department official. “We get the need to recalibrate.”
Any course of action, however, will confront two huge obstacles: the immensity of the sea and the depth of chaos in Somalia.
The pirates used to stick relatively close to Somalia’s shores. But now, using “mother ships” — hijacked vessels that serve as floating bases — they attack ships more than 1,000 miles away. Sometimes that puts them closer to India than to home. The red zone now covers more than one million square miles of water, an area naval officers say is impossible to control.
Piracy Inc. is a sprawling operation on land, too. It offers work to tens of thousands of Somalis — middle-managers, translators, bookkeepers, mechanics, gunsmiths, guards, boat builders, women who sell tea to pirates, others who sell them goats. In one of the poorest lands on earth, piracy isn’t just a business; it’s a lifeline.
And this gets to the real problem.
“The root cause is state failure,” the American official said.
Somalia’s central government collapsed more than 20 years ago, and now its landscape includes droughts, warlords, fighters allied to Al Qaeda, and malnutrition, suffering and death on a scale unseen just about anywhere else. [*]
The United States and other Western powers are pouring millions of dollars into Somalia’s transitional government, an appointed body with little legitimacy on the ground, in the hope, perhaps vain, that it can rebuild the world’s most failed state and create an economy based on something like fishing or livestock. Young men then might be able to earn a living doing something other than sticking up ships.
But the transitional government has been divided, feckless and corrupt. Islamist rebels control much of the country. Few Somalis think the nation will stop being a war zone any time soon.
The shipping industry seems to know this.
“Until things change on land, you have to come down very hard on them at sea,” said Cyrus Mody, manager of the International Maritime Bureau in London.
Shipping companies are frustrated, he said, because while many pirates are apprehended at sea by foreign navies, the vast majority are typically released unless they are caught in the act of a hijacking a ship — which is a very narrow window because once pirates control a vessel, it’s extremely dangerous to intervene.
“The laws have to be amended,” Mr. Mody said. “Why would a skiff be 800 miles off Somalia with a rocket-propelled grenade, a ladder and extra barrels of fuel? What are they doing? Fishing? These people need to be arrested and prosecuted.”
The last resort is military action. Many people ask: Why not storm ashore and attack the pirate bases? These dens are well known. I even visited one last year and met a pirate boss who was using millions of dollars in ransoms to build a land-based army that at first glance looked more disciplined and better equipped than Somalia’s national army.
But the military option would not be pretty. The 800 or so captured seamen could be used as human shields. And no Western country has shown an appetite to send troops to Somalia, not after the Black Hawk Down fiasco of 1993, when ragtag Somali militiamen downed two American helicopters and killed 18 elite American troops. And a military attack could easily backfire. “They might kill a few pirates, but more would certainly spring up to replace them,” said Bronwyn Bruton, who wrote a widely discussed essay on Somalia. “The replacements would probably be even angrier and more violent.” In her essay, she advised the international community to essentially pull out and let Somalis sort out their problems on their own.
She added that collateral damage from a raid could be severe and “a lot of civilian casualties could actually wind up aggravating a much bigger security threat to the U.S. — terrorism.”
So it seems that Jefferson may have had an easier piracy problem to solve.
“I can offer a couple thoughts based on the U.S.’s dealing with pirates more than 200 years ago,” Mr. Lambert said. “If the U.S. response is a vigorous military response, it is likely to be difficult, costly, and prolonged” — a reference to the war that followed bombardment of the coast.
But, he warned, “If it is a continuation of the present policy (whatever that is), it is almost a certainty that we will see more or perhaps escalated atrocities.‘’

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:07 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/26gates.html
February 25, 2011
Warning Against Wars Like Iraq and Afghanistan
By THOM SHANKER [Obama white house] [112th congress, 1st session] [mostly bureaucracy] [continuity in USFP] [defense department priorities] [GSAVE, AfPak, elsewhere] [use psci 355-455] [SecDef Gates reshaping the military for the future!] [followup] [due to other reasons, Rumsfeld never got proper credit for efforts to do same] [now Gates back on track] [*]
WEST POINT, N.Y. — Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates bluntly told an audience of West Point cadets on Friday that it would be unwise for the United States to ever fight another war like Iraq or Afghanistan, and that the chances of carrying out a change of government in that fashion again were slim. [*]
“In my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should ‘have his head

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/26gates.html
February 25, 2011
Warning Against Wars Like Iraq and Afghanistan
By THOM SHANKER [Obama white house] [112th congress, 1st session] [mostly bureaucracy] [continuity in USFP] [defense department priorities] [GSAVE, AfPak, elsewhere] [use psci 355-455] [SecDef Gates reshaping the military for the future!] [followup] [due to other reasons, Rumsfeld never got proper credit for efforts to do same] [now Gates back on track] [*]
WEST POINT, N.Y. — Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates bluntly told an audience of West Point cadets on Friday that it would be unwise for the United States to ever fight another war like Iraq or Afghanistan, and that the chances of carrying out a change of government in that fashion again were slim. [*]
“In my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should ‘have his head examined,’ as General MacArthur so delicately put it,” Mr. Gates told an assembly of Army cadets here. [*]
That reality, he said, meant that the Army would have to reshape its budget, since potential conflicts in places like Asia or the Persian Gulf were more likely to be fought with air and sea power, rather than with conventional ground forces.
“As the prospects for another head-on clash of large mechanized land armies seem less likely, the Army will be increasingly challenged to justify the number, size, and cost of its heavy formations,” Mr. Gates warned. [*]
“The odds of repeating another Afghanistan or Iraq — invading, pacifying, and administering a large third-world country — may be low,” Mr. Gates said, but the Army and the rest of the government must focus on capabilities that can “prevent festering problems from growing into full-blown crises which require costly — and controversial — large-scale American military intervention.”
Mr. Gates was brought into the Bush cabinet in late 2006 to repair the war effort in Iraq that was begun under his predecessor, Donald H. Rumsfeld, and then was kept in office by President Obama. He did not directly criticize the Bush administration’s decisions to go to war. Even so, his never-again formulation was unusually pointed, especially at a time of upheaval across the Arab world and beyond. Mr. Gates has said that he would leave office this year, and the speech at West Point could be heard as his farewell to the Army. [he must be preparing as he sets some conditions that will then be difficult to change absent some new crisis or event] [will become role] [*]
A decade of constant conflict has trained a junior officer corps with exceptional leadership skills, he told the cadets, but the Army may find it difficult in the future to find inspiring work to retain its rising commanders as it fights for the money to keep large, heavy combat units in the field.
“Men and women in the prime of their professional lives, who may have been responsible for the lives of scores or hundreds of troops, or millions of dollars in assistance, or engaging or reconciling warring tribes, may find themselves in a cube all day re-formatting PowerPoint slides, preparing quarterly training briefs, or assigned an ever-expanding array of clerical duties,” Mr. Gates said. “The consequences of this terrify me.”
He said Iraq and Afghanistan had become known as “the captains’ wars” because “officers of lower and lower rank were put in the position of making decisions of higher and higher degrees of consequence and complexity.”
To find inspiring work for its young officers after combat deployments, the Army must encourage unusual career detours, Mr. Gates said, endorsing graduate study, teaching, or duty in a policy research institute or Congressional office.
Mr. Gates said his main worry was that the Army might not overcome the institutional bias that favored traditional career paths. He urged the service to “break up the institutional concrete, its bureaucratic rigidity in its assignments and promotion processes, in order to retain, challenge, and inspire its best, brightest, and most battle-tested young officers to lead the service in the future.”
There will be one specific benefit to the fighting force as the pressures of deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan decrease, Mr. Gates said: “The opportunity to conduct the kind of full-spectrum training — including mechanized combined arms exercises — that was neglected to meet the demands of the current wars.”

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:06 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/25/AR2011022505001.html
Will Syria become more democratic?
By David Ignatius
Sunday, February 27, 2011;
DAMASCUS, SYRIA [oped] [Ignatius] [on Syria from Damascus] [good piece] [use psci 355-455] [I hope Ignatius’ optimism is warranted; we’ll see] [*]
The rise and fall of a protest demonstration here recently shows that Syrians share the yearning for dignity that's sweeping the Arab world - and also illustrates why President Bashar al-Assad so far hasn't been threatened by this tide of anger. [*]
Here's what happened on Feb. 19, according to accounts provided separately by a Western diplomat and a Syrian official: A policeman insulted a driver in downtown Damascus; when the man protested, he was beaten by the cop, who was joined by two others. It was the sort of harsh encounter with authority that Arabs swallowed, bitterly but passively, until the surge of anger in Tunisia and Egypt.
A crowd of hundreds quickly gathered in the Damascus street and began chanting. According to a diplomat who has reviewed tape recordings of the incident, the chants roughly translated: "We

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/25/AR2011022505001.html
Will Syria become more democratic?
By David Ignatius
Sunday, February 27, 2011;
DAMASCUS, SYRIA [oped] [Ignatius] [on Syria from Damascus] [good piece] [use psci 355-455] [I hope Ignatius’ optimism is warranted; we’ll see] [*]
The rise and fall of a protest demonstration here recently shows that Syrians share the yearning for dignity that's sweeping the Arab world - and also illustrates why President Bashar al-Assad so far hasn't been threatened by this tide of anger. [*]
Here's what happened on Feb. 19, according to accounts provided separately by a Western diplomat and a Syrian official: A policeman insulted a driver in downtown Damascus; when the man protested, he was beaten by the cop, who was joined by two others. It was the sort of harsh encounter with authority that Arabs swallowed, bitterly but passively, until the surge of anger in Tunisia and Egypt.
A crowd of hundreds quickly gathered in the Damascus street and began chanting. According to a diplomat who has reviewed tape recordings of the incident, the chants roughly translated: "We are the people. The people don't want to be humiliated." People in the crowd videotaped the action with their cellphones and posted the drama on the Internet. [*]
It was a volatile situation. Then something interesting happened, which shows how closely the authorities are monitoring events: The minister of the interior arrived on the scene about 30 minutes after the protest started, apologized to the beaten man and took him away in his car. The police officers were reprimanded. The crowd eventually dispersed, and some (perhaps with official encouragement) began chanting in favor of Assad. [*]
The government did another sensible thing: Rather than try to suppress information about the event (which would have been futile, in any event), the government allowed the videos to circulate widely on the Internet. People shared their anger about police abuses, but the rage doesn't seem to have focused on the leader, as has been the case in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. [incredibly cynical but good for Syria] [*]
Syria is a paradox in this Arab season of revolt. It has an authoritarian regime dominated by a corrupt Baath Party - a relic of the age of dictators that is being swept away in so many other countries. But President Assad, relatively young at 45 and wrapped in the popular banner of resistance to Israel and America, hasn't yet been affected.
Is Syria next? That's impossible to predict at a time when, as an Arab proverb puts it, "the artery of shame has ruptured." The answer depends on whether the Assad regime is able to make reforms - and move as quickly as it did a week ago in responding to that street demonstration.
The French, who probably know this country better than most outsiders, view Assad as relatively secure. "In the short to medium term, the probability of revolution is extremely low in Syria compared to other countries," is how one official describes the French perspective.
An intriguing debate is underway among Assad's advisers about whether he should allow more democracy and openness - something he has long claimed he wants - or keep the controls fastened tight. The reformers argue that change will enhance Assad's popularity, while the security establishment counters that concessions now would be a sign of weakness - and empower the Muslim Brotherhood.
Assad must decide soon whether to allow real parties - other than the Baath and its various fronts - to compete in elections this year. Syria has both municipal and parliamentary elections scheduled for this year, and the question is whether there will be real, open balloting for candidates and parties, or a Soviet-style, rubber-stamp version, as in the past. [*]Another opportunity for a shake-up is a congress of the Baath Party also planned for this year.
Reformers hope that Assad will amend the constitution so that it doesn't require Baath rule and instead allows inter-party competition. "If we have different political parties, it's healthy for the Baath, which is slowing down and getting distanced from the people," argues one Syrian reformer. [*]
Corruption is also a volatile issue here. The regime is vulnerable because Assad's cousin, Rami Makhluf, is the dominant shareholder of the lucrative cellphone franchise known as Syriatel. Assad is considering whether Makhluf should reduce his interest to make way for foreign investment, according to two knowledgeable people. But that reform move could trigger a rift within his family.
The debate among Assad's inner circle mirrors the wider political battles that are rocking the Arab world. For now, the streets of Damascus are mostly full of shoppers, not protesters. But if the experience of other countries over the past two months shows anything, it's that delaying reform too long in a one-party state like Syria is potentially a fatal mistake.
davidignatius@washpost.com © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:05 AM | Permalink

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/europe/27ireland.html
February 26, 2011
Ireland’s Ruling Party Headed for Crushing Defeat, Early Poll Shows
By SARAH LYALL [Ireland] [domestic politics] [ruling party crushed] [*]
DUBLIN — If there were people walking around during the national election on Friday who were passionate supporters of the ruling party, Fianna Fail, they were doing an excellent job of keeping it secret.
“I think Brian Cowen was probably the worst taoiseach we’ve ever had,” said David Ryan, 76, a retired businessman, using the Irish word for prime minister and speaking of Fianna Fail’s former leader. “I am totally angry,” Mr. Ryan went on — not just at Mr. Cowen, who resigned last month, but at the Irish banks whose spectacular debts his government promised to guarantee on a fateful day in 2008. “They were totally corrupt.”
The results of the election will not be announced until late Saturday. But an early exit poll predicted a crushing defeat for Fianna Fail, one of modern history’s most successful political parties, which has been in power for almost 60 of the last 80 years, most recently from 1997 until the present.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/europe/27ireland.html
February 26, 2011
Ireland’s Ruling Party Headed for Crushing Defeat, Early Poll Shows
By SARAH LYALL [Ireland] [domestic politics] [ruling party crushed] [*]
DUBLIN — If there were people walking around during the national election on Friday who were passionate supporters of the ruling party, Fianna Fail, they were doing an excellent job of keeping it secret.
“I think Brian Cowen was probably the worst taoiseach we’ve ever had,” said David Ryan, 76, a retired businessman, using the Irish word for prime minister and speaking of Fianna Fail’s former leader. “I am totally angry,” Mr. Ryan went on — not just at Mr. Cowen, who resigned last month, but at the Irish banks whose spectacular debts his government promised to guarantee on a fateful day in 2008. “They were totally corrupt.”
The results of the election will not be announced until late Saturday. But an early exit poll predicted a crushing defeat for Fianna Fail, one of modern history’s most successful political parties, which has been in power for almost 60 of the last 80 years, most recently from 1997 until the present.
“From the perspective of the population, the desire to remove Fianna Fail is enormous,” said Alan Barrett, a research professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute, an independent study group in Dublin. Or, as Paula Sheary, a 20-year-old sales assistant at a boutique selling women’s formal clothing (“Up to 70 percent off!” said the sign outside) put it: “They let us down. They just brought greed, greed, greed.”
Mr. Cowen has become for many a hated symbol of the policies that led to Ireland’s current predicament and to its precipitous fall from prosperity to ruin.
Unemployment is up to 13.8 percent (it was as low as 4.2 percent as recently as 2005); public spending has been savagely and repeatedly cut since 2008; the deficit has risen to 14.3 percent; and current predictions suggest that 100,000 people will emigrate in the next several years, from a population of 4.3 million. The bill from the struggling banks may, in the end, total upward of $135 billion 100 billion euros,Ö in an economy with a G.D.P. of $220 billion 160 billion euros.Ö
The housing bubble that fueled the boom has collapsed, along with the banks that made the loans that led to it in the first place. In November, the country was forced to accept a humiliating and onerous $92.8 billion 67.5 billion euro international loan package that tied it to a brutal four-year austerity program. The package came with such unfavorable interest rates that some economists feel the country might be unable to afford even to service the debt.
Many of these problems can be directly attributed to poor decisions made by the government, said Diarmaid Ferriter, a professor of modern history at University College Dublin. “There has been a complete and utter lack of leadership in Ireland,” Professor Ferriter said. As for Fianna Fail, he said, “They’ve actually managed to alienate all sections of our society.”
An early exit poll conducted for RTE, the state broadcaster, had the country’s main opposition party, the center-right Fine Gael, drawing 36.1 percent of the vote - the most of any party, but short of the overall majority needed to govern alone. It will most likely rule in a coalition with the more centrist Labour Party, which, the RTE poll shows, is on track to receive 25.1 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, Fianna Fail is polling at 15.1 percent -- compared to the 42 percent it won in the 2007 election. If Fine Gael does win, the new prime minister will be the party’s leader, Enda Kenny, who was first elected to the Irish parliament in 1975, and who served as tourism and trade minister in the 1990’s.
Though Fine Gael (pronounced FEE-na gayle) has traditionally had few ideological points of difference with Fianna Fail (pronounced FEE-anna foil), Mr. Kenny has successfully dissociated himself from the government’s policies and ridden the country’s wave of wrath and disgust.
“The feeling is that this is a day of revenge, a day of reckoning,” said Tom McDonnell, a policy analyst with TASC, a study group that examines the social implications of economic policies.
Mr. Kenny has pledged to renegotiate the terms of the loan package, particularly the portion that comes from the European Union and carries an interest rate of 5.83 percent — far higher than what Greece, in similar straits, is being charged. Mr. McDonnell said the plan felt more like the Versailles Treaty, which imposed draconian conditions on Germany after World War I, than like the Marshall Plan, the American program to help rebuild Europe after World War II.
Although Europe has not said whether it would agree to renegotiate the deal, it may have to in order to keep Ireland solvent, Mr. Barrett said. Under the current conditions, he added, the country’s debt is expected to constitute more than 100 percent of its G.D.P. by 2012.
Ireland has little leverage in Europe these days, experts say, but one thing it can potentially do is threaten to renege on its financial obligations. “The idea would be that the finance minister could go and say, ‘Look, we can’t take this anymore, so unless you give us some sort of break, we’re going to unilaterally default,’” Mr. Barrett said.
Such a move would imperil the loan package and have disastrous repercussions beyond Ireland. “The only difference between us and the German banks is that they don’t yet know the full horror of what is happening to them,” Mr. McDonnell said. “It will come down to pragmatism on the part of our European partners. If they do conclude that Ireland might become insolvent, it becomes necessary for them to renegotiate the deal.”
Mr. McDonnell said that many friends in their 20s and 30s had already abandoned Ireland, along with other professionals who felt they had a better chance of finding work abroad. People regularly hold “emigration parties,” that have the feel of wakes, he said; television stations broadcast people’s “last words to their loved ones” as they stand in lines at the airport ready to fly out. “It’s really heartbreaking,” he said.
Irish law forbids candidates to electioneer on the day of the campaign. But this week, Mr. Kenny warned that even with a change of government, no one should expect a magical transformation in Ireland’s fortunes.
“You are not going to walk into a situation on Feb. 26 where suddenly the sun shines on everybody and the warmth is on our backs economically,” he said.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:04 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/africa/27diplomacy.html
February 26, 2011
Following U.S. Sanctions, U.N. Security Council to Meet on Libya
By HELENE COOPER and MARK LANDLER [UN] [Security Council] [Libya] [US and others work the system, under chapter 7?] [followup] [*]
WASHINGTON — One day after the United States closed its embassy in Tripoli and imposed unilateral sanctions against Libya, the United Nations Security Council prepared to meet in New York on Saturday to consider imposing international sanctions, including an arms embargo and an asset freeze and travel ban against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, his relatives and key members of his government.
Ahead of the meeting, diplomats from the United States, France, Germany and Britain circulated a draft resolution that also called for the referral of the violent crackdown in Libya to the International Criminal Court to investigate possible crimes against humanity.
But Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday warned that sanctions would do more harm to Libya’s people than to Colonel Qaddafi, the Associated Press reported. He added: “We call on the international community to act with conscience,

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/africa/27diplomacy.html
February 26, 2011
Following U.S. Sanctions, U.N. Security Council to Meet on Libya
By HELENE COOPER and MARK LANDLER [UN] [Security Council] [Libya] [US and others work the system, under chapter 7?] [followup] [*]
WASHINGTON — One day after the United States closed its embassy in Tripoli and imposed unilateral sanctions against Libya, the United Nations Security Council prepared to meet in New York on Saturday to consider imposing international sanctions, including an arms embargo and an asset freeze and travel ban against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, his relatives and key members of his government.
Ahead of the meeting, diplomats from the United States, France, Germany and Britain circulated a draft resolution that also called for the referral of the violent crackdown in Libya to the International Criminal Court to investigate possible crimes against humanity.
But Turkey Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday warned that sanctions would do more harm to Libya’s people than to Colonel Qaddafi, the Associated Press reported. He added: “We call on the international community to act with conscience, justice, laws and universal humane values — not out of oil concerns.”
The international community was being spurred to action by Ban Ki-Moon, the United Nations secretary general, who gave a dire description of the continuing violence against protesters in Libya on Friday, as well as an emotional plea from the Libyan ambassador to help his countrymen.
“Please United Nations, save Libya,” Ambassador Mohammed Shalgham told fellow diplomats in New York on Friday, as he publicly broke with the Qaddafi government. "I tell my brother Qaddafi, leave the Libyans alone."
In Washington, President Obama on Friday night issued a formal executive order freezing the American-held assets of Colonel Qaddafi, his children and family, and senior members of the Libyan government.
The announcement of the order came just minutes after a charter flight left Tripoli carrying the last Americans who wanted to leave Libya, and markedly toughened the administration’s words and actions against Colonel Qaddafi. High-ranking Libyan officials who supported or participated in his violent crackdown would also see their assets frozen and might, along with Colonel Qaddafi, be subject to war crimes prosecution, officials said.
“It’s clear that Colonel Qaddafi has lost the confidence of his people,” said the White House press secretary, Jay Carney, in a briefing that was delayed to allow the plane to take off because the Americans feared that the Libyan leader might harm the passengers. “His legitimacy has been reduced to zero.”
With Colonel Qaddafi killing more of his people every day in a desperate bid to remain in power, it was not clear that these actions would do much to mitigate the worsening crisis. Sanctions, for instance, take time to put in place, and every other option comes with its own set of complications. Colonel Qaddafi, increasingly erratic, has seemed to shrug off outside pressure, becoming even more bizarre — with charges that protesters are on drugs — in the face of the world’s scorn. And unlike with Egypt and Bahrain, close American allies that also erupted into crisis, the United States has few contacts deep inside the Libyan government, and little personal sway with its leadership.
Libya and the United States resumed full diplomatic relations only in 2008; before that it was regarded as an outlaw state. In fact, even as he was announcing that the Obama administration was cutting off military to military cooperation with the Libyan Army, Mr. Carney noted that such cooperation was “limited” — a stark contrast to the deep ties that the Pentagon has cultivated with other Arab armies.
The tougher American response came nine days into the Libyan crisis and six days after Colonel Qaddafi’s security forces first opened fire on protesters at a funeral in Benghazi, plunging Libya into something close to civil war and igniting worldwide condemnation. In the days after, the Obama administration repeatedly called for an end to the violence, but avoided criticizing Colonel Qaddafi by name — a cautious policy that brought criticism from the president’s Republican rivals.
Countering those criticisms, administration officials said they feared a hostage crisis, which tied President Obama’s hands until American citizens, diplomats and their families were evacuated from Libya. A ferry with 167 Americans left Tripoli on Friday afternoon, having been delayed for two days by 15- to 18-foot waves in the Mediterranean, and a charter plane with additional Americans left Friday night. The embassy, Mr. Carney said, “has been shuttered.”
European leaders have been more aggressive. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France has called on Colonel Qaddafi to resign, a step that Mr. Obama has yet to take. But American allies and the United Nations also moved to isolate Libya diplomatically. A senior United Nations official said that the world should intervene to stop the bloodshed in Libya, and France and Britain called on the international organization to approve an arms embargo and sanctions. NATO said it was ready to help evacuate refugees.
In Geneva, the normally passive United Nations Human Rights Council voted unanimously on Friday to suspend Libya’s membership, but not before a junior delegate of the Libyan mission announced that he and his colleagues had resigned after deciding to side with the Libyan people. The gesture drew a standing ovation and a handshake from the United States ambassador, Eileen Donahoe.
Administration officials said that getting the people around Colonel Qaddafi to abandon him is a key part of the American and international strategy to isolate him. Administration officials say they are supporting a British proposal to try to bring before a war crimes tribunal Colonel Qaddafi and those who support or enable his violent crackdown.
“It’s hard to do, but the point is to encourage the remaining supporters of Qaddafi to peel off,” said Robert Malley, the Middle East and North Africa program director at the International Crisis Group. “If you want to accelerate his demise, you send the message that those who do not participate in the violence might not be prosecuted for their association with the regime.”
American officials are also discussing a no-flight zone over Libya to prevent Colonel Qaddafi from using military aircraft against demonstrators. But such a move would have to be coordinated with NATO, and would require a Security Council resolution, diplomats said. Arab governments might object on sovereignty grounds.
Administration officials have avoided public discussion of additional military options. When asked whether the United States was considering using its military assets in the region — including a marine amphibious ship in the Red Sea — to support the rebellion in Libya, Mr. Carney said, “We are not taking any options off the table in the future.” But administration officials said there were no immediate plans to intervene militarily.
The administration’s measures appeared to satisfy human-rights groups. Analysts said they wanted more details about the sanctions, but they were encouraged by signs that the United States would support the effort to have Colonel Qaddafi referred to the International Criminal Court on war-crimes charges, as well as by a special NATO meeting.
“Even if people aren’t explicitly talking about no-fly zones, the fact that NATO met today suggests there is more on people’s minds than diplomacy,” said Tom Malinowski, the director of the Washington office of Human Rights Watch. “I sense military contingencies are on the table.”
One complication that could speed up consideration of any military action would be evidence that Colonel Qaddafi was prepared to use his remaining stockpile of mustard gas.
The American sanctions will also include travel bans against Colonel Qaddafi and senior members of his government, and the freezing of assets, including a move to freeze all American-controlled portions of Libya’s sovereign wealth fund, administration officials said. Sanctions, once they go into effect, could have an impact on oil-rich Libya. According to an American diplomatic cable obtained by WikiLeaks, a senior Libyan official told American diplomats in January 2010 that the Libyan Investment Authority, which manages the country’s oil revenue, had $32 billion in cash, and that several American banks managed up to $500 million in each of those funds. Administration officials said they planned to go after that money as part of the punitive sanctions.
“The government of Libya has claimed that it holds as much as $130 billion in reserves and its sovereign wealth fund reportedly holds more than $70 billion in foreign assets,” an Obama administration official said. The official said that “while we are aware of certain assets owned by the Libyan government in the U.S., there are likely additional funds that we are not aware of.”
Analysts said that going after the assets of Colonel Qaddafi’s aides would probably be more effective than going after those held by the leader himself, given that he is engaged in an all-or-nothing defense of his rule.
A more draconian approach, suggested Danielle Pletka, an expert on sanctions at the American Enterprise Institute, would be to impose a trade embargo on Libya, excepting only food and other humanitarian aid.
In New York, the French ambassador to the United Nations, Gerard Araud, told reporters that there was a “large commonality" within the Security Council on quick action on an asset freeze and travel ban, which will specifically name about 20 people, and on an arms embargo, wire services reported.
Referring Libya to the International Criminal Court, however, would be a more sensitive subject, he said. The resolution does not call for a no-fly zone over Libya, a more extreme action.
Mr. Shalgham, the Libyan ambassador, said that he hoped for the Security Council to act within "hours, not days.” A close ally of Colonel Qaddafi for decades, he had referred to him as a friend as recently as Tuesday.
”You can’t be a leader or a king or a president while you are killing your people just for saying they want to be free,” he told reporters after Friday’s Security Council meeting. “It can’t continue.”
Steven Erlanger contributed reporting from Paris, Sharon Otterman from Cairo, Rachel Donadio from Valletta, Malta, and Nick Cumming-Bruce from Geneva.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:03 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/europe/26turkey.html
February 25, 2011
Sarkozy Is Criticized on a Visit to Turkey
By SEBNEM ARSU and STEVEN ERLANGER [Turkey] [former Asia Minor] [EU and Turkey’s efforts to be included therein] [in past couple years Turkey has moved from bridge between Muslim world and West to ?] [Sarkozy makes visit to Turkey where Erdogan announced yesterday Erdogan would nail Sarkozy for duplicity] [here’s what happened] [followup] [*]
ISTANBUL — President Nicolas Sarkozy of France made a six-hour visit to Turkey on Friday, and was greeted with criticism on Europe’s so-far limited reaction to the Libyan crackdown as well as Mr. Sarkozy’s own reluctance to bring Turkey into the European Union.
Speaking at a joint news conference in the Turkish capital, Ankara, with President Abdullah Gul, Mr. Sarkozy called for the Libyan leader to resign and face trial before the International Criminal Court. [*]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/europe/26turkey.html
February 25, 2011
Sarkozy Is Criticized on a Visit to Turkey
By SEBNEM ARSU and STEVEN ERLANGER [Turkey] [former Asia Minor] [EU and Turkey’s efforts to be included therein] [in past couple years Turkey has moved from bridge between Muslim world and West to ?] [Sarkozy makes visit to Turkey where Erdogan announced yesterday Erdogan would nail Sarkozy for duplicity] [here’s what happened] [followup] [*]
ISTANBUL — President Nicolas Sarkozy of France made a six-hour visit to Turkey on Friday, and was greeted with criticism on Europe’s so-far limited reaction to the Libyan crackdown as well as Mr. Sarkozy’s own reluctance to bring Turkey into the European Union.
Speaking at a joint news conference in the Turkish capital, Ankara, with President Abdullah Gul, Mr. Sarkozy called for the Libyan leader to resign and face trial before the International Criminal Court. [*]
Mr. Sarkozy said that Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi “must go” and that he and others should be brought to trial for their bloody response to peaceful demonstrators. “The systematic violence against the Libyan people is unacceptable and will be the subject of investigations and sanctions,” he said. [*]
But Mr. Sarkozy said that military intervention was not a good idea. “What kind of credibility would such intervention bring to the people there?” Mr. Sarkozy asked. “People would then claim that riots have been plotted by foreigners.”
Turkish officials, meanwhile, said that the European Union had been too slow to respond to the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa and that it should respond more rapidly to the needs of people fleeing the conflict, instead of trying to keep them away from European shores. [*]
Mr. Sarkozy strongly opposes Turkey’s bid to join the European Union, and his lightning visit to Turkey — intended to discuss Turkish participation in the Group of 20, of which France is the president this year — was loudly criticized by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in advance as insulting.
“We would have liked to welcome him as president of France,” and not as chairman of the Group of 20, Mr. Erdogan told Agence France-Presse. “So I think this is not a visit at the level of friendship between Turkey and France,” he said, adding, “Turkey and Turkish-French ties deserve better than that.” [*]
Mr. Sarkozy reiterated his position favoring a special partnership with the European Union rather than membership. [*]
“Between accession and partnership, which Turkey says it does not accept, there is a path of equilibrium that we can find,” Mr. Sarkozy told reporters on Friday, while Mr. Gul insisted that the union “should keep the promise it made” and let Turkey complete accession negotiations. [*]
Mr. Sarkozy was also distracted by problems at home, with reports coming from his own political party that he would fire his foreign minister, Michèle Alliot-Marie, over the weekend. She is expected to be replaced by the defense minister, Alain Juppé, 65, a former foreign minister and prime minister under Jacques Chirac, French officials said.
Ms. Alliot-Marie has been sharply criticized for a December visit to Tunisia, where she and her family took free flights from a Tunisian businessman close to the family of the ousted president, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who also did a business deal with her parents.
Mr. Sarkozy asked Turkey to be the host of a ministerial meeting in April on how to regulate commodity prices to which Russia would be invited.
In Ankara, Mr. Sarkozy praised Turkey’s role and image as a democratic country building a bridge between Europe and Asia. But scholars cautioned about using Turkey as a “model” for countries like Egypt and Tunisia. [*]
Turkey imposed secularism before democracy, and the process of democratic development has taken 60 years, with the army only recently stepping aside, cautioned Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment in Brussels and chairman of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies in Istanbul. “So it’s a bit unfair to compare where Turkey stands today as a short- or medium-term objective for an Arab world that is hopefully starting its transition to democracy,” he said.
Still, Turkey’s experience with building political parties and institutions, checks and balances, election monitoring groups and a state system that did not dominate or crush the market “may contain some lessons for others,” Mr. Ulgen said.
Sebnem Arsu reported from Istanbul, and Steven Erlanger from Paris.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:02 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/africa/27libya.html
February 26, 2011
Qaddafi Forces Shooting From Ambulances, Witnesses Say
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and SHARON OTTERMAN [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [followup] [*]
TRIPOLI, Libya — An increasingly gruesome picture began to emerge Saturday of the violent tactics used by the government of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi to quell protesters in Tripoli, the Libyan capital, with several witnesses confirming that forces loyal to the government had been shooting people from ambulances and using antiaircraft guns against crowds. [*]
Witnesses to the violence in Tripoli, where a tense standoff held on Saturday, also said that the government had removed dead bodies as well as the wounded from hospitals in an effort to disguise the mounting death toll in the uprising against Col. Qaddafi sweeping

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/africa/27libya.html
February 26, 2011
Qaddafi Forces Shooting From Ambulances, Witnesses Say
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and SHARON OTTERMAN [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [followup] [*]
TRIPOLI, Libya — An increasingly gruesome picture began to emerge Saturday of the violent tactics used by the government of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi to quell protesters in Tripoli, the Libyan capital, with several witnesses confirming that forces loyal to the government had been shooting people from ambulances and using antiaircraft guns against crowds. [*]
Witnesses to the violence in Tripoli, where a tense standoff held on Saturday, also said that the government had removed dead bodies as well as the wounded from hospitals in an effort to disguise the mounting death toll in the uprising against Col. Qaddafi sweeping Libya.
Col. Qaddafi’s forces had put down demonstrators, who had taken to the streets after Friday Prayers to mount their first major challenge to the government’s crackdown, with snipers from rooftops, buckshot, and tear gas, witnesses said. There were unconfirmed reports that an armed rebel force was approaching the city on Saturday. [*]
In Tajoura, a neighborhood of the capital where there has been significant fighting since a peaceful demonstration there last Sunday, residents had barricaded a street with old television sets and cinderblocks to try to keep out pickup trucks full of men with machine guns. A doctor working at the local clinic here said he had seen 68 people killed and 150 injured in recent days of clashes, and that residents were braced for more violence.
A rebel officer who is coordinating an attack on Tripoli, Col. Tarek Saad Hussein, asserted in an interview that an armed volunteer force of about 2,000 men — including army defectors — was to arrive in Tripoli on Friday night. There was no way to confirm his claim.
Protesters in Tripoli said that they had heard a force was on its way from the eastern cities that had fallen to rebels, but that they had been stopped in Surt, a remaining Qaddafi stronghold halfway between Tripoli and Benghazi, the opposition-controlled city where the uprising began.
Colonel Hussein was especially angered at the reports of security forces’ firing on protesters after prayers. “They did not have weapons,” he said, speaking at an abandoned army base in the eastern city of Benghazi, which is firmly under rebel control. “They shot people outside the mosque.”
Indeed, accounts of the bloodshed on Friday indicated that Colonel Qaddafi’s forces had deployed the same determined brutality as they had earlier in the week defending their leader, who has ruled for more than 40 years.
“They shoot people from the ambulances,” said one terrified resident, Omar, by telephone as he recalled an episode during the protests on Friday when one protester was wounded. “We thought they’d take him to the hospital,” he said, but the militiamen “shot him dead and left with a squeal.”
A precise death toll might be impossible. Omar said that friends who were doctors at a hospital in Tripoli saw bodies being removed from the morgue to conceal the death toll. Local residents told him that the bodies were being taken to beaches and burned. Omar did not want his full named used for fear of his life.
“We have no freedom here,” he said. “We want our freedom, too.”
Heba Morayef, a researcher with Human Rights Watch trying to confirm the number of fatalities, said she had heard widespread reports of security forces inside hospitals. Top officials of the biggest Tripoli hospitals were said to be loyal to Colonel Qaddafi and understating the casualties, she said.
The deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Ibrahim Dabbashi, had also said in New York on Friday that government forces had been shooting from ambulances, as he pleaded for international action to help stop the violence. [*]
"Hundreds of people have been killed. We expect thousands to be killed" in Tripoli, he told reporters. [*]
The Tripoli airport has become a refugee camp packed with thousands of people trying to flee. The floors inside are a carpet of flesh and blankets, including families with children. Outside, a thick wall of thousands of refugees was waiting to get in, and at least two guards were beating them back — one with a billy club and the other a whip.
The city had been cleansed Thursday night for a visit by a number of foreign journalists the Qaddafi government has invited. Billboards with pictures of Colonel Qaddafi that were burned and defaced last week have all been restored, witnesses said. “It is a stage set they built overnight,” one resident said.
Witnesses in Tripoli said that the streets were lined with extra police officers in riot gear before Friday Prayer services, and militia members patrolled the area near Bab al-Aziziya, Colonel Qaddafi’s military base.
A resident who spoke with friends in several neighborhoods said the police opened fire on worshipers after the prayers, killing at least five people in Siyahiya, in western Tripoli, and several other people in Zawiat al-Dahmani, in the city’s center.
There were also reports of gunfire in Fashloom and the Souq al-Jumaa area. Those reports could not be immediately confirmed.
It was no longer possible to reach Tripoli’s central Green Square, the scene of many of the demonstrations — and much of the slaughter. The area was surrounded by checkpoints and barricades patrolled by members of the armed forces, Omar and other witnesses said.
Indeed, earlier Friday, Libyan state television showed Colonel Qaddafi speaking from a parapet overlooking Green Square and addressing a crowd of supporters. There was no sign of resistance, only the sight of thousands of young loyalists. There was no way to know if the broadcast was live or pre-recorded.
“This is the formidable, invincible force of youth,” Colonel Qaddafi said. “Life without dignity is useless.” He blew kisses to the crowd and urged them to fight to the death. “Every individual will be armed,” he said. “Libya will become a hell.”
Libyan state television also announced that the government would give $400 to every family and raise the salaries of state employees by as much as 150 percent, in what appeared to be an attempt to buy support.
But the gesture was too late to stop more painful defections. Libya’s ambassador to the United Nations, Abdurrahman Shalgham, a longtime friend of Colonel Qaddafi, denounced him Friday in New York, comparing him with Pol Pot and Hitler.
Libya’s entire Arab League mission resigned for the same reasons on Friday, as did the country’s mission in Geneva. [reported yesterday] [*]
Ahmed Gadhaf al-Dam, one of Colonel Gaddafi’s top security official and a cousin, left Wednesday evening, it was revealed, for Egypt, where he denounced Colonel Qaddafi’s “grave violations to human rights.”
The protesters in Tripoli appeared emboldened by promises of help from rebels outside the capital and the surprisingly strong showing of protesters in cities close to the capital on Thursday against Colonel Qaddafi’s forces, which brought the rebellion to the capital’s doorstep. [*]
A potentially large force of armed fighters sympathetic to the protesters was now converging on Tripoli, according to military officials and soldiers who had defected to the rebels.
Colonel Hussein said the force consisted of active duty, retired soldiers and army reservists who had joined the rebel side. It was sent to the capital in small groups, he said, adding that they carried a mixture of light arms and heavier weapons, including rocket-propelled grenades. [*]
He did not offer more details about the size of the groups, or their route. The road to Tripoli from the country’s eastern cities is blocked to the rebels by the city of Surt, Colonel Qaddafi’s hometown.
Colonel Hussein said he was negotiating with tribal leaders and military officers in Surt to abandon the government, or at least not stand in the way of the rebels. “We’re appealing to the people of Surt to help us stop the bloodshed,” he said.
Army soldiers stationed at a barracks near Benghazi said on Friday that 200 to 250 of their colleagues had left the barracks in recent days, headed to Tripoli to fight Colonel Qaddafi’s forces.
A group of 60 or so officers stood outside another barracks in Benghazi on Friday, saying they were volunteering to go fight in Tripoli. Colonel Hussein said they were joining the battle because protesters were being killed. “In cold blood,” said Colonel Hussein.
Asked what would happen if Colonel Qaddafi was deposed or killed, Colonel Hussein said Libyans wanted a democracy.
“It was our duty to enter the fight,” he added. “The regime started this. They are the ones who brought the revolution.”
David D. Kirkpatrick reported from Tripoli, and Sharon Otterman from Cairo. Kareem Fahim contributed reporting from Benghazi, Libya, and Gaia Pianigiani from Rome.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/middleeast/27iraq.html
February 26, 2011
Gunmen Attack Iraq’s Largest Oil Refinery
By JACK HEALY [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and fault lines] [success of “surge”] [so far, the Jasmine Revolution has only created contagion in localized parts of Iraq (Kut)] [not clear what protestors in Iraq are protesting?] [again, the city of Samarra, nominally a Shi’a city] [the same city whose famous mosque started civil war in Feb 2006] [followup] [it appears someone is trying to respark civil war?] [*]
BAGHDAD — Iraq’s largest oil refinery was crippled by a predawn attack on Saturday after gunmen stormed the vast complex, killed one engineer and set off several bombs.
The attack shut down parts of the Baiji Refinery, halting the production of about 150,000 barrels per day of oil derivatives and raising questions about the security of Iraq’s underdeveloped and antiquated refineries.
It was the second insurgent attack this month against Iraq’s crucial oil sector, which drives about 90 percent of all government revenues in a country whose economy is still reeling

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/world/middleeast/27iraq.html
February 26, 2011
Gunmen Attack Iraq’s Largest Oil Refinery
By JACK HEALY [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and fault lines] [success of “surge”] [so far, the Jasmine Revolution has only created contagion in localized parts of Iraq (Kut)] [not clear what protestors in Iraq are protesting?] [again, the city of Samarra, nominally a Shi’a city] [the same city whose famous mosque started civil war in Feb 2006] [followup] [it appears someone is trying to respark civil war?] [*]
BAGHDAD — Iraq’s largest oil refinery was crippled by a predawn attack on Saturday after gunmen stormed the vast complex, killed one engineer and set off several bombs.
The attack shut down parts of the Baiji Refinery, halting the production of about 150,000 barrels per day of oil derivatives and raising questions about the security of Iraq’s underdeveloped and antiquated refineries.
It was the second insurgent attack this month against Iraq’s crucial oil sector, which drives about 90 percent of all government revenues in a country whose economy is still reeling from years of war and insurgency.
According to officials from the refinery and provincial government, gunmen armed with pistols with noise suppressors broke into the refinery at about 4:30 a.m. and attacked the few security guards and engineers who had been working overnight. They then planted eight bombs inside and outside, blowing up a pipeline.
The explosions started a fire that sent plumes of smoke billowing into the sky above the refinery, which is located in Salahuddin Province, a Sunni area about 100 miles north of Baghdad.
Oil officials did not provide details on the extent of the damage or say when they would be able to restart production. Oil Ministry officials promised an investigation on Saturday afternoon.
After the American invasion in 2003, millions and millions of dollars in fuel from the refinery was funneled onto the black market, some of it into the hands of militants. In 2008, an American captain stationed at Baiji called the illegal flow of oil the “money pit of the insurgency.”
Earlier this month, a pipeline north of Baghdad was bombed, disrupting production at the Dora refinery in Baghdad.
Although Iraq floats atop the world’s third-largest oil reserves, it has struggled to increase production beyond about 2.6 million barrels per day, hampered by creaky pipelines and other infrastructure, as well as political and security instabilities.
Duraid Adnan contributed reporting.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/africa/26briefs-Somalia.html
February 25, 2011
Somalia: Offensive Gaining Ground, President Says
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Somalia] [the chaos in Somalia: failed state] [East Africa; south of Horn] [chaos since 1991, fleeing of central govt] [then stability again in 2000s until 2007-2008 when wheels came off yet again] [same old, same old?] [GSAVE] [followup] [*]
President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, left, said Friday that a government offensive was gaining ground after a week of fighting against militants who for years have confined his administration to a few blocks of the capital. “The fighting is going on and our troops are winning,” he said. “Our operation will continue until we secure the country.” Government and African Union forces clashed with militants in Mogadishu on Friday and captured the Defense Ministry building, which had been serving as the militants’ base. The insurgents denied the government’s claim. “We have foiled the so-called offensive declared by the Christians,” said a spokesman for the Shabab rebels, referring to non-Muslim African Union peacekeepers from Uganda and Burundi.

[full piece may be found above the jump] [*]

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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/middleeast/26nuke.html
February 25, 2011
Iran Reports a Major Setback at a Nuclear Power Plant
By WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER [Iran] [Iran’s bid to create an illicit nuke program] [Iran’s sovereign rights a popular issues among Iranians] [last year Iran was caught with another covert enrichment site] [followup] [now with ships’ arrival in Syria, a poke in the West’s and Israel’s respective eyes] [setbacks include stuxnet and apparently some bogus centriguge tubes] [followup?] [UN’s IAEA] [*]
Iran told atomic inspectors this week that it had run into a serious problem at a newly completed nuclear reactor that was supposed to start feeding electricity into the national grid this month, [*]raising questions about whether the trouble was sabotage, a startup problem, or possibly the beginning of the project’s end.
In a report on Friday, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran told inspectors on Wednesday that it was planning to unload nuclear fuel from its Bushehr reactor — the sign of

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/middleeast/26nuke.html
February 25, 2011
Iran Reports a Major Setback at a Nuclear Power Plant
By WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER [Iran] [Iran’s bid to create an illicit nuke program] [Iran’s sovereign rights a popular issues among Iranians] [last year Iran was caught with another covert enrichment site] [followup] [now with ships’ arrival in Syria, a poke in the West’s and Israel’s respective eyes] [setbacks include stuxnet and apparently some bogus centriguge tubes] [followup?] [UN’s IAEA] [*]
Iran told atomic inspectors this week that it had run into a serious problem at a newly completed nuclear reactor that was supposed to start feeding electricity into the national grid this month, [*]raising questions about whether the trouble was sabotage, a startup problem, or possibly the beginning of the project’s end.
In a report on Friday, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran told inspectors on Wednesday that it was planning to unload nuclear fuel from its Bushehr reactor — the sign of a major upset. [?] [*]For years, Tehran has hailed the reactor as a showcase of its peaceful nuclear intentions and its imminent startup as a sign of quickening progress.
But nuclear experts said the giant reactor, Iran’s first nuclear power plant, now threatens to become a major embarrassment, as engineers remove 163 fuel rods from its core. [interesting] [*]
Iran gave no reason for the unexpected fuel unloading, but it has previously admitted that the Stuxnet computer worm infected the Bushehr reactor. On Friday, computer experts debated whether Stuxnet was responsible for the surprising development.
Russia, which provided the fuel to Iran, said earlier this month that the worm’s infection of the reactor should be investigated, arguing that it might trigger a nuclear disaster. Other experts said those fears were overblown, but noted that the full workings of the Stuxnet worm remained unclear. [*]
In interviews Friday, nuclear experts said the trouble behind the fuel unloading could range from minor safety issues and operational ineptitude to serious problems that would bring the reactor’s brief operational life to a premature end.
“It could be simple and embarrassing all the way to ‘game over,’ ” said David A. Lochbaum, [*]a nuclear engineer at the Union of Concerned Scientists and a former official at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which oversees nuclear reactors in the United States.
Mr. Lochbaum added that having to unload a newly fueled reactor was “not unprecedented, but not an everyday occurrence.” He said it happened perhaps once in every 25 or 30 fuelings. In Canada, he added, a reactor was recently fueled and scrapped after the belated discovery of serious technical problems.
“This could represent a substantial setback to their program,” David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a private group in Washington that tracks nuclear proliferation, said of the problem behind the Bushehr upset. [Albright had been among those loudly saying boo on Iran’s program] [*]
“It raises questions of whether Iran can operate a modern nuclear reactor safely,” he added. “The stakes are very high. You can have a Chernobyl-style accident with this kind of reactor, and there’s lots of questions about that possibility in the region.”
The new report from the I.A.E.A. — a regular quarterly review of the Iran nuclear program to the agency’s board — gave the reactor unloading only brief mention and devoted its bulk to an unusually toughly worded indictment of Iranian refusals to answer questions about what the inspectors called “possible military dimensions” of its nuclear program. [*]
The report alluded to “new information recently received,” suggesting continuing work toward a nuclear warhead. [*]
But the inspectors provided no details about the new information or how it was received. The I.A.E.A. frequently gets its data from the intelligence agencies of member countries, including the United States, but it also tries to collect data from its own sources.
The report on Friday referred directly to concerns that Iran was working on “the development of a nuclear payload for a missile.” But it noted that all of its requests for information had been ignored for years, with Iranian officials arguing that whatever information the agency possessed, it was based on forgeries.
The White House said Friday that the report cast new light on what it called Iran’s covert movement toward nuclear arms.
“The I.A.E.A.’s reports of obstruction and Iran’s failure to cooperate are troubling,” said Tommy Vietor, spokesman for the National Security Council. “We will continue to hold Iran accountable to its international nuclear obligations, including by deepening the international pressure on Iran.” [UN SC not US] [*]
The reactor is located outside the Iranian city of Bushehr on the nation’s Persian Gulf coast. Priced at more than a billion dollars, it is ringed by dozens of antiaircraft guns and large radar stations meant to track approaching jets.
Its tangled history began around 1975 with a West German contract. After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the West Germans withdrew. Iraq repeatedly bombed the half-built reactor between 1984 and 1988.
Iran signed a rebuilding accord with Russia in 1995 that should have had the project completed in 1999. But the plan bogged down in long delays. [*]
The United States once opposed the plant. But Washington dropped its objections after Russia agreed to take back the spent rods, removing the possibility that Iran could reprocess them for materials that could fuel nuclear arms.
The loading of uranium fuel into the reactor was initially planned to start soon after its shipment to Bushehr last August, but was delayed by what the Iranians said was a leak in a pool near the central reactor.
In October, Iranian officials said the Stuxnet worm had infected the reactor complex, but they played down the issue. Mohammad Ahmadian, an Iranian Atomic Energy Organization official, said the affected computers had been “inspected and cleaned up.”
Later in October, as the fueling at last got under way, after three decades of delay, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, called the Bushehr reactor “the most exceptional power plant in the world.” [*]
In December, he predicted that the plant would be connected to the national power grid by Feb. 19. “This phase,” he said, according to The Tehran Times, “is the most important operational work of the plant.”
In an interview on Friday, a European diplomat familiar with Iran’s nuclear program called the fueling problem a major setback, even if the technical cause proves to be less than monumental.
“It’s clearly a significant setback to the startup of the reactor,” said the diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the diplomatic delicacy of the matter.
He said that engineers at Bushehr had identified a technical failure, but were struggling to understand its cause. [I certainly hope so] [*]
“It’s too early to know,” the diplomat said. “I’m sure the Iranians are studying that question quite desperately.”

Posted by Kent Bolton at 08:59 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/asia/26kabul.html
February 25, 2011
Afghan Officials Say Jailed Christian Convert Is Free
By RAY RIVERA [Afghanistan] [AfPak] [even as US commits much money and support to Pakistan’s govt] [Obama’s “surge” continues] [after “surge” has success around Kandahar, insurgency strikes back?][use psci 355-455, 469] [more of the long slog that is COIN] [followup] [I think this is the same covert from weeks ago?] [followup] [*]
Under international pressure, government officials in Kabul say they have freed an Afghan man who had been jailed since May and faced the prospect of the death penalty for converting from Islam to Christianity. [yes, same] [*]
The release of the man, Sayed Mussa, 46, follows months of quiet diplomacy between the Afghan government and United States Embassy officials in Kabul, who along with members of Congress and other foreign embassies had sought the former aid worker’s release.
Mr. Mussa, a married father of six who worked for the International Committee of the Red Cross before his arrest, was released Monday from Kabul Detention Center after prosecutors determined there was insufficient evidence to proceed with the case, said Gen. Qayoum Khan, the detention center’s director. But there were conflicting accounts about

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/asia/26kabul.html
February 25, 2011
Afghan Officials Say Jailed Christian Convert Is Free
By RAY RIVERA [Afghanistan] [AfPak] [even as US commits much money and support to Pakistan’s govt] [Obama’s “surge” continues] [after “surge” has success around Kandahar, insurgency strikes back?][use psci 355-455, 469] [more of the long slog that is COIN] [followup] [I think this is the same covert from weeks ago?] [followup] [*]
Under international pressure, government officials in Kabul say they have freed an Afghan man who had been jailed since May and faced the prospect of the death penalty for converting from Islam to Christianity. [yes, same] [*]
The release of the man, Sayed Mussa, 46, follows months of quiet diplomacy between the Afghan government and United States Embassy officials in Kabul, who along with members of Congress and other foreign embassies had sought the former aid worker’s release.
Mr. Mussa, a married father of six who worked for the International Committee of the Red Cross before his arrest, was released Monday from Kabul Detention Center after prosecutors determined there was insufficient evidence to proceed with the case, said Gen. Qayoum Khan, the detention center’s director. But there were conflicting accounts about the terms of his release. A senior prosecutor involved in the case, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he was released only after agreeing to return to Islam.
It was also not immediately clear where he was taken or if he even remains in the country. Some of his relatives, including his wife, said they had not heard from him. [*]
An American Embassy spokeswoman would not confirm his release and declined to talk about the case, saying only that the embassy continued to monitor Mr. Mussa’s case and others like it.
General Khan said Mr. Mussa was released Monday and turned over to the attorney general’s office. The office did not return phone calls Thursday.
Mr. Mussa was arrested last May after a television station in Kabul broadcast images that it claimed showed Westerners baptizing Afghans and other Afghans praying at private Christian meetings. The broadcast stoked fears of proselytizing brought on by the influx of foreigners since the American-led invasion. [*]
A senior prosecutor closely involved with the case, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the case, said last month that the government was under heavy international pressure to release Mr. Mussa. But how to release him without upsetting hard-line conservatives in the government and among the public was presenting a challenge, the prosecutor said.
On Thursday, however, the same prosecutor said Mr. Mussa was released only after finally agreeing to return to Islam. [thank god there’s rule of law?] [*]
“Mr. Mussa said in front of everyone in high court that ‘I made a mistake converting to Christianity and I want to return back to Islam,’ ” he said, adding that “we worked with Mr. Mussa for a long time to convince him to return back to Islam.”
The prosecutor said he did not know Mr. Mussa’s current location.
Mr. Mussa was one of at least two Afghans being held in cases that underscore the contradictions and limits of religious freedom in Afghanistan nine years after the end of the Taliban’s rigid Islamic rule. The other, Shoaib Assadullah Musawi, who has been jailed in the northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif since November after being accused of giving the New Testament to a friend, is still being held, a court official said.
Afghanistan’s Constitution, established in 2004, guarantees that people are “free to exercise their faith.” But it also leaves it open for the courts to rely on Shariah, or Islamic law, on issues like conversion. Under some interpretations of Shariah, leaving Islam is considered apostasy, an offense punishable by death.
Mr. Mussa’s cousin-in-law, Said Yaseen Hashimi, said that he visited Mr. Mussa at the jail on Monday but that when he returned the next day he was told Mr. Mussa had been released the night before.
In a phone interview from Pakistan, Mr. Mussa’s wife, whose full name is not being used out of concern for her safety, said she had not heard from her husband and did not know if he had been released.
“I am very concerned about him,” she said. “I don’t know how he might have spent the time in prison in this cold winter season. Even if he is released, I don’t know where he might be now. Or maybe he is in one of the foreign embassies for protection.”
Sharifullah Sahak contributed reporting from Kabul, Afghanistan.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 08:58 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/asia/26pakistan.html
February 25, 2011
Pakistan Demands Data on C.I.A. Contractors
By JANE PERLEZ [Pakistan] [AfPak] [hub of the al Qaeda and Taliban activity in AfPak] [and of al Qaeda globally] [use psci 355-455, 469] [more info on some of Pakistan’s govt’s extremes?] [in past couple weeks stories appeared that US had stopped drone attacks due to problems with Pakistani govt over the contractor in Pakistani hands] [what does this mean?] [followup] [*]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistan’s chief spy agency has demanded an accounting by the Central Intelligence Agency of all its contractors working in Pakistan, [*]a fallout from the arrest last month of an American involved in surveillance of militant groups, a senior Pakistani intelligence official said Friday. [that’s one of the many problems when the US uses contractors instead of its own] [*]
Angered that the American, Raymond A. Davis, worked as a contractor in Pakistan on covert C.I.A. operations without the knowledge of the Pakistanis, the spy agency estimated

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/asia/26pakistan.html
February 25, 2011
Pakistan Demands Data on C.I.A. Contractors
By JANE PERLEZ [Pakistan] [AfPak] [hub of the al Qaeda and Taliban activity in AfPak] [and of al Qaeda globally] [use psci 355-455, 469] [more info on some of Pakistan’s govt’s extremes?] [in past couple weeks stories appeared that US had stopped drone attacks due to problems with Pakistani govt over the contractor in Pakistani hands] [what does this mean?] [followup] [*]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistan’s chief spy agency has demanded an accounting by the Central Intelligence Agency of all its contractors working in Pakistan, [*]a fallout from the arrest last month of an American involved in surveillance of militant groups, a senior Pakistani intelligence official said Friday. [that’s one of the many problems when the US uses contractors instead of its own] [*]
Angered that the American, Raymond A. Davis, worked as a contractor in Pakistan on covert C.I.A. operations without the knowledge of the Pakistanis, the spy agency estimated that there were “scores” more such contractors “working behind our backs,” said the official, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly about a delicate matter between the two countries. [*]
In a slight softening of the Pakistani stance since Mr. Davis’s arrest, the official said that the American and Pakistani intelligence agencies needed to continue cooperation, and that Pakistan was prepared to put the episode in the past if the C.I.A. stopped treating its Pakistani counterparts as inferior. [*]
“Treat us as allies, not as satellites,” said the official of the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI. “Respect, equality and trust are needed.”
George Little, a C.I.A. spokesman, said the American spy agency’s ties to the ISI “have been strong over the years, and when there are issues to sort out, we work through them.”
“That’s the sign of a healthy partnership,” Mr. Little said.
The arrest and detention of Mr. Davis, 36, after he shot and killed two motorcyclists in Lahore soured already testy relations between two governments that are supposed to have a common front in the fight against terrorism.
The top American and Pakistani military leaders, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, and the leader of the Pakistani Army, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, met this week in Oman, where the Davis case was discussed. [*]
According to a report by a former head of the Pakistani Army, Gen. Jehangir Karamat, who runs a research and analysis center based in Lahore, both sides agreed to try to “arrest the downhill descent.”
Even so, the Pakistani intelligence community was divided over how quickly to settle the Davis case and how much to extract from the C.I.A., said a Pakistani official with intimate knowledge of the situation, who declined to be named because of the delicacy of the issue. [*]
At a minimum, the ISI wants an accounting of all the contractors who work for the C.I.A. in roles that have not been defined to Pakistan and a general rewriting of the rules of engagement by the C.I.A. in Pakistan, the official said.
In another sign that the two spy services were trying to patch up their differences, Leon E. Panetta, the director of the C.I.A., spoke on Wednesday with Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the ISI director, about resolving Mr. Davis’s case, American and Pakistani officials said on Friday. Mr. Davis, who appeared in handcuffs on Friday for a hearing in a closed courtroom at the jail where he is being held in Lahore, faces possible murder charges.
The Obama administration insists that Mr. Davis has diplomatic immunity and should be released. The Pakistani government has left the determination on diplomatic immunity to the Foreign Office and a hearing before the Lahore High Court on March 14.
Some senior Pakistani intelligence officers were unwilling to have Mr. Davis released under almost any circumstances, said the official with knowledge of the split in the intelligence community.
He said others wanted to use the Davis case as a bargaining chip to get the withdrawal of a civil lawsuit filed in Brooklyn last year that implicates the ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, in the November 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India. [that sounds about right] [*]
The demand for the C.I.A. to acknowledge the number of contractors in Pakistan was driven by the suspicion that the American spy service had slipped many such secret operatives into Pakistan in the past six months, the senior ISI official said.
The increase occurred after a directive last July by the Pakistani civilian government, which is often at odds with the ISI, to its Washington embassy to expedite visas without supervision from the ISI or the Ministry of Interior, the senior ISI official said.
The behavior of people like Mr. Davis is deeply embarrassing to the ISI because it makes the agency “look like fools” in the eyes of the anti-American Pakistani public, the ISI official said.
The Davis case made it hard to explain to Pakistanis why the ISI was cooperating with Washington, he said.
The clampdown on American contractors by the Pakistani authorities appeared to be under way Friday with the arrest of an American citizen, Aaron Mark DeHaven, in the northwestern city of Peshawar.
The Peshawar police said Mr. DeHaven was detained because he had overstayed his business visa after his request for an extension last October was turned down.[*]
There was no immediate accusation that Mr. DeHaven worked for the American government, a security official in Peshawar said. But the arrest of Mr. DeHaven, who is married to a Pakistani woman, appears to be a signal that the Pakistani authorities have decided to expel Americans they have doubts about.
The security official said Mr. DeHaven owned a firm, Catalyst Services in Peshawar, that rented houses for Americans in the city.
The American Embassy in Islamabad said in a statement that it did not have details about Mr. DeHaven but that it was arranging consular access for him through the Pakistani government.
During his first months in Pakistan in early 2010, Mr. Davis, the contractor for the C.I.A., was attached to the American Consulate in Peshawar and lived in a house with other Americans in an upscale neighborhood, according to Pakistani officials.
At the 20-minute court hearing on Friday, Mr. Davis told the judge he would not take part in the proceedings because he had diplomatic immunity, Pakistani officials told reporters later.
He refused to sign the charge sheet presented to him, the officials said. The Obama administration insists that Mr. Davis acted in self-defense when the two motorcyclists tried to rob him.
In the charge sheet, the Pakistani police said Mr. Davis shot the motorcyclists multiple times from inside his car, and then stepped from the car and continued shooting with his Glock pistol. Mr. Davis then drove from the scene and was arrested several miles away, the police said.
At Friday Prayers in Lahore and in Islamabad, the capital, anti-American sermons, in some cases laced with references to Mr. Davis, were common. [*]
Hafiz Saeed, the founder of the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, which Mr. Davis is believed to have been conducting surveillance on, said the American was “a spy, committing terrorism, helping in drone attacks.” [US doesn’t want to give groups like LeT something to harp on that will resonate with Paksitan’s masses] [*]
Banners reading “Hang Davis” and “No immunity to Davis” were strung across the road adjacent to Mr. Saeed’s headquarters.
Ismail Khan contributed reporting from Peshawar, Pakistan, and Waqar Gillani from Lahore, Pakistan.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 08:58 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/25/the_lwot_fbi_arrests_saudi_in_alleged_terrorism_plot_chesser_gets_25_years_in_pr
Foreign Policy
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:21:48 AM] [*]
The LWOT: FBI arrests Saudi in alleged terrorism plot; Chesser gets 25 years in prison
Foreign Policy and the New America Foundation bring you a twice weekly brief on the legal war on terror. You can read it on foreignpolicy.com or get it delivered directly to your inbox -- just sign up here.
BY ANDREW LEBOVICH | FEBRUARY 25, 2011 [obama white house] [residual from previous tenures] [112th congress, 1st session] [bureaucracy: FBI as part of IC and part of justice department] [prosecution of jihadis which has presented some problems to US] [NSC to bureaucracy] [continuity in USFP?] [use psci 355-455, 469] [LWOT] [the California jihadis mess from a few years ago] [followup] [mostly reporting so not in societal] [*]
FBI arrests Saudi in alleged terrorism plot
The FBI arrested a 20-year old Saudi student at a Texas community college, Khalid Ali-M Aldawsari (criminal complaint available here), late Feb. 23, charging him with attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction in a terrorist attack (DoJ, NYT, Washington Post, AP). Aldawsari, who moved to the United States in 2008 on a student visa, reportedly came to the attention of the FBI after a chemical company on Feb. 1 reported the suspicious

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/25/the_lwot_fbi_arrests_saudi_in_alleged_terrorism_plot_chesser_gets_25_years_in_pr
Foreign Policy
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:21:48 AM] [*]
The LWOT: FBI arrests Saudi in alleged terrorism plot; Chesser gets 25 years in prison
Foreign Policy and the New America Foundation bring you a twice weekly brief on the legal war on terror. You can read it on foreignpolicy.com or get it delivered directly to your inbox -- just sign up here.
BY ANDREW LEBOVICH | FEBRUARY 25, 2011 [obama white house] [residual from previous tenures] [112th congress, 1st session] [bureaucracy: FBI as part of IC and part of justice department] [prosecution of jihadis which has presented some problems to US] [NSC to bureaucracy] [continuity in USFP?] [use psci 355-455, 469] [LWOT] [the California jihadis mess from a few years ago] [followup] [mostly reporting so not in societal] [*]
FBI arrests Saudi in alleged terrorism plot
The FBI arrested a 20-year old Saudi student at a Texas community college, Khalid Ali-M Aldawsari (criminal complaint available here), late Feb. 23, charging him with attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction in a terrorist attack (DoJ, NYT, Washington Post, AP). Aldawsari, who moved to the United States in 2008 on a student visa, reportedly came to the attention of the FBI after a chemical company on Feb. 1 reported the suspicious purchase of 1.3 gallons of phenol, a legal chemical that can make an explosive equivalent to TNT, trinitrophenol (known as TNP), when mixed with sulfuric acid and nitric acid. Aldawsari is expected to appear in court this morning.
According to the FBI, Aldawsari had already acquired the sulfuric and nitric acids, as well as a hazardous materials suit, wires, and clocks, as well as beakers and other laboratory equipment. A former chemical engineering student, he reportedly researched extracting phenol from aspirin when his original order came under scrutiny, and had also looked into remote detonation using cell phones (AJE, AP). A search of Aldawsari's journal and email records reveal that he considered numerous sites for targeting, including New York City, dams and nuclear power plants, the Texas home of former President George W. Bush, and the homes of three former guards at the U.S. military prison at Abu Ghraib (McClatchy, Washington Post, NPR). [no news, as far as I can tell] [*]
While there is no evidence connecting Aldawsari to terrorist groups, he reportedly wrote in his diary and on a blog about Osama bin Laden as a source of inspiration, as well as his desire to wage jihad going back to his time in Saudi Arabia. In a blog post, he allegedly wrote, "After mastering the English language, learning how to build explosives and continuous planning to target the infidel Americans, it is time for jihad" (LAT).
Chesser sentenced to 25 years in prison
A federal judge in Virginia on Feb. 24 sentenced Zachary Chesser, known on jihadist websites as Abu Talhah al-Amrikee, to 25 years in prison for attempting to join the al Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab group in Somalia, [*]as well as making threats of violence (Washington Post, AP, CNN). Chesser, a college dropout and convert to Islam, gained attention last year when he threatened the creators of South Park over their depiction of the Prophet Muhammad in a bear suit. In a statement to the court (available here) Chesser expressed his remorse and renounced violence. However, in sentencing Chesser Judge Liam O'Grady said, "It's amazing how quickly you became a danger. If anyone had been harmed, we'd be talking about a life sentence" (Washington Post). [*]
The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and the Los Angeles chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) filed suit Feb. 23 against the FBI for the latter's alleged use of an informant to indiscriminately spy on worshipers in several California mosques (LAT, Washington Post).The suit centers around the activity of FBI informant Craig Monteilh, who from 2006 to 2007 was allegedly paid by the FBI to spy on several mosques, efforts that came to light when Monteilh's aggressive talk of jihad prompted several mosque-goers to report him to the FBI. The case damaged relationships between the FBI and the local Muslim community, who argue that the alleged surveillance infringed on their right to freely practice their religion (NYT).
Lawyers for two Somali men charged with providing material support for al-Shabaab, Mohamud Abdi Yusuf and Abdi Mahdi Hussein, challenged the government's evidence against their clients in court this week, and implied that the surveillance against the men was authorized under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) (St. Louis Post-Dispatch).
A federal judge in Oregon ruled that Attorney General Eric Holder acted improperly when he spoke in defense of the FBI's investigation of Oregon teen Mohamed Osman Mohamud, arrested last year in a sting operation for allegedly plotting to attack Portland's Christmas Tree lighting ceremony [*](AP, OregonLive.com). And a U.S. Army Colonel is expected to make a recommendation soon on whether or not Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, charged with killing 13 in a shooting spree in Nov. 2009 at Fort Hood, will face a court martial (AP).
Finally this week, protesters gathered this week at the Long Island, NY office of Rep. Peter King (R-NY) in opposition to King's planned hearings on Muslim radicalization in the United States, scheduled to resume Mar. 10 (AP).
Republicans close off avenues to shutter Gitmo
Despite indications that the Obama administration no longer intends to use the Thomson correctional facility in Illinois to house Guantánamo Bay detainees, Congressional Republicans this week sought to put formal language in an appropriations bill refusing money for the prison without written assurance from the White House not to transfer detainees there (LAT). The administration currently wants to use the prison as a maximum security facility for federal inmates. [I’m not sure why?] [Obama had already caved] [he’d already shifted back to the Bush position that it was too difficult to close Gitmo for now] [*]
And over at Lawfare Blog, Benjamin Wittes attacked a proposed law from Rep. Steven Scalise (R-LA) that would end funding for U.S. State Department efforts to resettle in third countries Guantánamo detainees who have been cleared for release (Lawfare Blog). Wittes also points out that the ACLU and Center for Constitutional Rights (CCR) missed their deadline to appeal the dismissal last year of their lawsuit seeking an injunction into government efforts to kill radical American cleric Anwar al-Awlaki (Lawfare Blog).
7/7 inquest continues
The inquest into the 7/7 transit bombings which killed 52 commuters in London in 2005 heard late this week that an intelligence desk officer had flagged information regarding plot ringleader Mohammed Sidique Khan and bomber Shehzad Tanweer that could have exposed the plot had it been explored further (Independent, BBC, AFP, Telegraph). [*]
A British jury is currently deliberating in the trial of Rajib Karim, accused of plotting terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom with the guidance of Anwar al-Awlaki (BBC). And British police use of "stop-and-search" powers has dropped significantly since the European Court ruled them unlawful last year (Guardian). [*]
Trials and Tribulations
The State Department on Feb. 24 declared the Greek Sect of Revolutionaries a terrorist group, bringing to 48 the number of organizations so designated by the United States (AP).
Der Spiegel reports this week on the implications of the ruling by the Special Tribunal of Lebanon last week that terrorism can be prosecuted under international law (Der Spiegel).
Libyan authorities this week said an Islamic emirate had been set up in the Libya region of Derna by a former Guantánamo Bay detainee, Abdelkarim al-Hasadi (AFP). Residents of the region flatly denied the charge, saying the accusation was "something to scare Europe with."
South African authorities searched the prison cell of an accused Nigerian terrorist this week, after the man allegedly made threatening calls to Nigerian officials (AFP).
The trial of radical Indonesian cleric Abu Bakir Bashir continued this week, with Bashir denying the charges against him but defending the propriety of violence against Islam's enemies (AP, VOA). Andrew Lebovich is a program associate in the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 12:46 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-02-24/story-can-al-qaeda-survive-the-revolts/
The Daily Beast
Blog
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:27:26 AM] [*]
Can Al Qaeda Survive the Revolts?
by Bruce Riedel
February 24, 2011 | 10:43pm [societal, pundit] [but Bruce Riedel isn’t just a pundit] [he’s the former CIA guy whose analysis was the basis of what became the Obama surge in AfPak] [therefore, cross in govt] [obama white house] [residual from previous tenures] [112th congress, 1st session] [senate report] [gsave, and overlap with Jasmine Revolution] [NSC to bureaucracy] [continuity in USFP?] [use psci 355-455, 469] [*]
Dictators weren’t the only ones caught off guard by the sweep of revolts across the Middle East—so was Al Qaeda. Bruce Riedel on how the revolutions will affect the future of global jihad.
As the Arab world undergoes the most profound changes it has seen in over a half century, and the first-ever democratic revolutions in its history, al Qaeda has been caught off guard like everyone else. Now it is trying to regain its footing by looking for ways to gain advantage.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-02-24/story-can-al-qaeda-survive-the-revolts/
The Daily Beast
Blog
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:27:26 AM] [*]
Can Al Qaeda Survive the Revolts?
by Bruce Riedel
February 24, 2011 | 10:43pm [societal, pundit] [but Bruce Riedel isn’t just a pundit] [he’s the former CIA guy whose analysis was the basis of what became the Obama surge in AfPak] [therefore, cross in govt] [obama white house] [residual from previous tenures] [112th congress, 1st session] [senate report] [gsave, and overlap with Jasmine Revolution] [NSC to bureaucracy] [continuity in USFP?] [use psci 355-455, 469] [*]
Dictators weren’t the only ones caught off guard by the sweep of revolts across the Middle East—so was Al Qaeda. Bruce Riedel on how the revolutions will affect the future of global jihad.
As the Arab world undergoes the most profound changes it has seen in over a half century, and the first-ever democratic revolutions in its history, al Qaeda has been caught off guard like everyone else. Now it is trying to regain its footing by looking for ways to gain advantage. So the stakes in Arabia’s earthquake include not just the outcome in each country, the price of oil, and broader regional security, they also involve a battle for the future of the global jihad. [*]
Al Qaeda had nothing to do with the Jasmine revolution in Tunis that began the winter of Arab revolutions, nor did it have anything to do with the Egyptian revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak. [*]In both cases its various media mouthpieces were remarkably slow to catch up with events. [I suspect he’s right] [it seems wholly unprepared to take advantage so far?] [*] Osama bin Laden has yet to utter one word about the changes in his native Arab world. But time will give it a chance to recover. Egypt especially matters enormously to al Qaeda as the center of the Arab world—its historic, demographic and cultural heart. How events play out in Egypt will directly impact al Qaeda’s ideology and narrative profoundly.
Ayman Zawahiri, the Egyptian number two in al Qaeda, was silent about the revolution that removed his nemesis until last week. He released the first of what promises to be several messages on the revolution through Sahab media (which literally means ‘in the clouds”). [as Shahab is al Qaeda’s media group] [I didn’t notice anything in Zawihiri’s recent release about Shahab?] [presumably Riedel has seen something] [**] In this first commentary Zawahiri only repeated well-worn al Qaeda propaganda. Mubarak was a stooge of the American embassy. The Egyptian state is a creation of western imperialism. The great villain of Egypt is Napoleon Bonaparte! His 1798 invasion was the first plot “to call for the Jews to settle in Palestine,” Zawahiri claims, prefiguring Israel by a century and a half. Al Qaeda urges the complete overthrow of the corrupt Egyptian state, imposition of Islamic Sharia law, and Egypt’s merger into a new caliphate.
All of this is old stuff from Ayman (even the charge that Napoleon was a closet Zionist). This probably reflects the fact that what happened in Egypt is a total contradiction of al Qaeda’s ideology and he is playing catch up. [surely, al Qaeda does not wish to see democratization in Egypt, elsewhere!!!] [they reject democracy as idolatry, in effect] [*] For him change in the Islamic world should only come from violent jihad and terror, not broad based popular movements using Facebook and Twitter. Change should also not include the Muslim Brothers, Egypt’s largest and oldest Islamic party, which Zawahiri quit decades ago because it renounced violence. He has written a book, The Bitter Harvest, published in Pakistan on the Brotherhood’s many betrayals of jihad. [*]The book is one of the gospels of global jihad.
The revolutions in Arab states this winter have demonstrated that the epicenter of al Qaeda’s global jihad has long moved away from the Arabs to Pakistan and south Asia. [I presume Riedel is writing what he believes] [on other hand, the current surge in AfPak has his imprimatur boldy on it so he could be protecting his reputation?] [*]
Now Libya’s dictator Muammar Gaddafi has claimed he is fighting an al Qaeda led rebellion in his eastern province of Cyrenaica. This is a vintage Arab autocrat’s effort to try to smear any opposition as al Qaeda. [clearly: Qaddafi used the al Qaeda card like he used the colonialism card] [*] Al Qaeda’s North African franchise, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb through its al-Andalusia media arm (AQIM demands the re-conquest of Spain for the jihad), belatedly endorsed the uprising in Benghazi and other eastern cities but only days after it started. Again it looks caught off guard.
But al Qaeda’s history is one of resilience and adaptation. It will seek opportunity. It has not had a significant presence in Egypt since Mubarak smashed its cells in the 1990s but if the army tries to slow down the process of holding elections and devolving power to a civilian regime, al Qaeda will be quick to call foul. It will argue the revolution has been stolen by a military coup backed by America proving that only terror and jihad can produce real change. [surely he’s right about this?] [*]
In Libya, al Qaeda has long had a larger presence. Its Libyan arm has tried to stage revolts in the past in Cyrenaica. Libya has produced proportionally a larger number of al Qaeda recruits than its small population would warrant. One of the reasons the Clinton and Bush administrations began a dialogue with Gaddafi was because his intelligence services had a great deal of information on the terrorists because many are Libyans. [it’s certainly possible and plausible] [it’s also a shame that it has to come down to whom to blame] [*] If Libya dissolves into a lawless state with armed gangs of various militias, in effect a Somalia on the Mediterranean, al Qaeda may get a foot hold. But that does not mean the revolution today is our enemy. Far better would be for Gaddafi to be toppled and a new regime emerge that reflects a cross section of Libyan society. [in isolation that is doubtless true] [but what about Iran’s shortterm boost in influence?] [Iran was already emboldened by Iraq War; giving it another 5-10 years is a long time to give Iran advantage?] [*]
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has embraced the uprising in Yemen but it too is not in the driver’s seat in the demonstrations in Sana or Aden. It will of course benefit from prolonged unrest which diverts attention from counter-terrorism efforts. AQAP has no role in Bahrain where the opposition is predominately Shia, who are by definition anathema to al Qaeda’s Sunni world view. [*]
The revolutions in Arab states this winter have demonstrated that the epicenter of al Qaeda’s global jihad has long moved away from the Arabs to Pakistan and south Asia. [why doies he keep repeating that point?] [*] Aside from its branches in Iraq and Yemen it has been marginalized in the Arab world. Even in Iraq the Muslim Brotherhood has attacked it, and even in Gaza, Hamas has attacked it. It has sympathizers and may yet stage a comeback but for now it is on the margin. Thus these democratic changes have tremendous opportunity to weaken al Qaeda further and deal it death blows in countries where new open societies emerge with responsible democratic processes. [I think it’s inarguable that the potential is there] [potential versus reality?] [*]
In Pakistan by contrast, al Qaeda has a host of allies and fellow travelers. It works very closely with the Pakistani Taliban and with Lashkar e Tayyiba. It has long standing ties to the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network. Its leaders still find sanctuary in Pakistan and it helps to murder Pakistani leaders like Benazir Bhutto who fight it. You can’t argue with al Qaeda’s priorities. Pakistan has the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world so it makes sense to put your main effort there.
Bruce Riedel, a former long-time CIA officer, is a senior fellow in the Saban Center at the Brookings Institution. At Obama’s request, he chaired the strategic review of policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2009. He is author of the new book Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of the Global Jihad and The Search for Al Qaeda: Its Leadership, Ideology and Future.
Like The Daily Beast on Facebook and follow us on Twitter for updates all day long.
For inquiries, please contact The Daily Beast at editorial@thedailybeast.com.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 12:45 PM | Permalink

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/02/25/the-middle-east-masses-will-not-stand-for-anything-less-than-democracy/
Commentary
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:17:53 AM] [*]
Contentions
The Middle East Masses Will Not Stand for Anything Less Than Democracy
Max Boot 02.25.2011 - 11:49 AM [commentary] [an incredibly interesting and consequential debate ongoing in American public opinion] [particularly among the elites] [USFP elites] [continuity in USFP] [long struggle between American values and stability] [hence, it’s very much tied up in neconservative debates] [on one side are Robert Kagan, occasionally Elliot Abrams (though he’s on both sides?), now Max Boot] [since Council on Foreign Relations began including neoconservatives in W. Bush’s first term (9/11), it’s now spilled into CFR] [Realpolitik versus neoconservative] [use psci 355-455] [I always find it amusing when Boot or another pundit claims to know what the masses in the Middle East (or anywhere else) think?] [*]
Bernard Lewis, the distinguished historian of the Middle East, offers some provocative reflections on the present turmoil in the region in this interview with David Horovitz of the Jerusalem Post. In it, he expresses great skepticism about applying Western notions of democracy — and in particular of elections — to the Arab world, where it has “no history, no record whatever.” Lewis warns: [I don’t agree with Lewis on that matter] [but, I have tremendous respect and use one of his books in PSCI 469] [*]

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/02/25/the-middle-east-masses-will-not-stand-for-anything-less-than-democracy/
Commentary
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:17:53 AM] [*]
Contentions
The Middle East Masses Will Not Stand for Anything Less Than Democracy
Max Boot 02.25.2011 - 11:49 AM [commentary] [an incredibly interesting and consequential debate ongoing in American public opinion] [particularly among the elites] [USFP elites] [continuity in USFP] [long struggle between American values and stability] [hence, it’s very much tied up in neconservative debates] [on one side are Robert Kagan, occasionally Elliot Abrams (though he’s on both sides?), now Max Boot] [since Council on Foreign Relations began including neoconservatives in W. Bush’s first term (9/11), it’s now spilled into CFR] [Realpolitik versus neoconservative] [use psci 355-455] [I always find it amusing when Boot or another pundit claims to know what the masses in the Middle East (or anywhere else) think?] [*]
Bernard Lewis, the distinguished historian of the Middle East, offers some provocative reflections on the present turmoil in the region in this interview with David Horovitz of the Jerusalem Post. In it, he expresses great skepticism about applying Western notions of democracy — and in particular of elections — to the Arab world, where it has “no history, no record whatever.” Lewis warns: [I don’t agree with Lewis on that matter] [but, I have tremendous respect and use one of his books in PSCI 469] [*]
In the West, we tend to get excessively concerned with elections, regarding the holding of elections as the purest expression of democracy, as the climax of the process of democratization. Well, the second may be true – the climax of the process. But the process can be a long and difficult one. [*]Consider, for example, that democracy was fairly new in Germany in the inter-war period and Hitler came to power in a free and fair election.
We, in the Western world particularly, tend to think of democracy in our own terms – that’s natural and normal – to mean periodic elections in our style. But I think it’s a great mistake to try and think of the Middle East in those terms and that can only lead to disastrous results, as you’ve already seen in various places. They are simply not ready for free and fair elections…. [quoting Lewis] [recall former President Bush made the argument that those who did not offer democracy to Arab world were being condescending-paternalistic] [it’s a really important debate] [*]
In genuinely fair and free elections, [the Muslim parties] are very likely to win and I think that would be a disaster. A much better course would be a gradual development of democracy, not through general elections, but rather through local self-governing institutions. For that, there is a real tradition in the region.
I sympathize with Lewis’s concerns about rushing willy-nilly into voting — something that has backfired most notably in the case of the Palestinian Authority. [finally, a neconservative intellectual how has openly admitted the cockup in Palestine] [almost no one else from that camp will admit it today] [but the truth is: it wasn’t just former President Bush but a lot of folks who are somehow part of USFP] [now most conveniently act as if it was just President Bush] [it was heady stuff for many Americans, including me] [*] Hamas won the 2006 parliamentary elections because it was running against the discredited and corrupt Fatah in a climate where moderates were not able to organize effectively. There is little doubt that the Bush administration made a tactical error in pushing for premature elections in the confidence — which looks foolish in retrospect — that the moderates would come out on top. That is an error we would do well to avoid repeating now. In Egypt, for example, moderate political figures have expressed concern that September is too soon to hold an election. They may well be right, and it may well make sense to postpone an election until next year, giving secular politicos more time to counter the Muslim Brotherhood’s existing organizational structure.
But I believe Lewis is wrong to believe that elections can be postponed indefinitely or that the Muslim masses will be satisfied with “local self-governing institutions,” whatever that may mean. [Max Boot is getting out in front of others within the neconservative movement] he’s now squarely in Kagan (and recently, Kristol joined) camp] [*] He is surely right that the Middle East has little history of democracy in action, but the same may be said of most regions of the world. Democracy, after all, is a fairly recent invention, which dates back only to the 18th century in a few countries, such as Britain and the United States. Even then, it was a fairly limited democracy: keep in mind that until the 20th century, most of the American population (women and African-Americans) was not allowed to vote. Complete democracy as we know it today has been around for less than a hundred years. And that’s in the United States. It has come much more recently to many other regions, such as Eastern Europe, Latin America, and portions of East Asia (e.g., Taiwan and South Korea) and Africa (e.g., South Africa and Botswana). By definition, all those places have scant tradition of democracy. Nevertheless, democracy is functioning around the world.
Indeed, democracy has become the global norm in governance. Even dictators pay lip service to the forms of democracy by holding sham elections in which they win 99.9 percent of the vote. Such “elections” may be a joke, but they are significant nevertheless; in centuries past, kings and emperors never felt any pressure to win a popular mandate, however fraudulent. [*]
Given the way the world has changed, it seems the height of unrealism to imagine that a major region such as the Middle East — one where, as Professor Lewis notes, the people have ”greater awareness … thanks to modern media and modern communications, of the difference between their situation and the situation in other parts of the world” — can be kept indefinitely out of the club of democracies. The people will not stand for it, [that seems increasingly clear] [*] and as recent weeks have shown, their anger can be a potent thing. It is hopeless, I think, to imagine that the West can somehow tut-tut at the Arab masses and tell them they are not ready for elections yet. Ready or not, here they come.
Our best bet is not to resist the tides of history but to do what we can to channel them in a more constructive direction. That means providing greater support to liberal, secular democrats to balance out the greater organizational sway of radical groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. [I have no disagreement per se] [*] We provided this kind of covert aid with considerable success in countries such as France and Italy after World War II to prevent Communist parties from winning elections. We must do so again to keep the Brotherhood and its ilk out of power. That will not be easy to do, and it always has the potential to blow up in our faces. But it is a more pragmatic response than to try to delay indefinitely the demand for elections arising from every corner of the region Professor Lewis has studied so brilliantly for so many years. [if the US boxes itself in on Jasmine Movement, then I agree the US will need to attempt to channel] [so Boot is correct insofar as Obama has assumed the freedom agenda] [*]

Posted by Kent Bolton at 12:44 PM | Permalink

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/did-a-top-general-run-psyops-on-senators/
Wired Magazine
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:15:13 AM] [*]
Did a Top General Run Psy Ops on Senators?
By Spencer Ackerman and Noah Shachtman
February 24, 2011 [blog, societal] [Danger Room is great national-secutity blog that I check nearly daily] [this story broke last night (I heard on CNN)] [I still have trouble getting my head around what’s is alleged to have happened] [but it appears that it involves psyh ops units (officers and enlisted) being used to brief American and other VIPs (including U.S. senators!?] [public affairs officers (units) always spin officials and it’s expected] but to use psyh ops units as if they are public information units is really odd] [if it was intentional, the implications are pretty serious] [the same reporter for Rolling Stone who broke the McChrystal scoop last year, on this piece] [cross in govt] [use psci 355-455] [*]
Aides to a prominent general are insisting that their boss didn’t run a psychological operation on members of Congress. But the e-mails they provided to Danger Room to back up their denials appear to reinforce the initial charges: that Lt. Gen. William Caldwell IV, head of

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/02/did-a-top-general-run-psyops-on-senators/
Wired Magazine
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:15:13 AM] [*]
Did a Top General Run Psy Ops on Senators?
By Spencer Ackerman and Noah Shachtman
February 24, 2011 [blog, societal] [Danger Room is great national-secutity blog that I check nearly daily] [this story broke last night (I heard on CNN)] [I still have trouble getting my head around what’s is alleged to have happened] [but it appears that it involves psyh ops units (officers and enlisted) being used to brief American and other VIPs (including U.S. senators!?] [public affairs officers (units) always spin officials and it’s expected] but to use psyh ops units as if they are public information units is really odd] [if it was intentional, the implications are pretty serious] [the same reporter for Rolling Stone who broke the McChrystal scoop last year, on this piece] [cross in govt] [use psci 355-455] [*]
Aides to a prominent general are insisting that their boss didn’t run a psychological operation on members of Congress. But the e-mails they provided to Danger Room to back up their denials appear to reinforce the initial charges: that Lt. Gen. William Caldwell IV, head of training in Afghanistan, used propaganda personnel to “spin” visiting U.S. Senators. [I just find it so hard to believe Caldwell would do something that stupid?] [it would be stunning] [but I will wait to see where it leads] [**]
It’s a potentially serious offense. If Caldwell did order the operation, it could violate a decades-old law called the Smith-Mundt Act, which forbids the government from targeting propaganda at American citizens. Caldwell’s boss, Gen. David Petraeus, announced on Thursday that he’ll investigate the “facts and circumstances” of a potentially improper use of information operations. [*]
The accusations come from Lt. Col. Michael Holmes, the leader of an information operations unit in Afghanistan, who tells Rolling Stone that Caldwell’s staff retaliated against him after he balked at their efforts to use him to influence American dignitaries. [I heard him briefly and he seemed oddly un exercised over it?] [it was weird] [*]
One of Caldwell’s aides says that Holmes wasn’t acting in an “Information Operations,” or “IO,” [*]capacity when dealing with the visiting legislators. Holmes may have been trained in psychological operations. But, at the time, Holmes was functioning as a garden-variety staff officer for Caldwell. According to the aide, they prepared some briefing books and talking points in advance of the dignitaries’ visits — nothing more, nothing less. [I’ve got to say there’s a certain gotcha aspect to it?] [it’s just difficult to believe Caldwell would be that cavelier and stupid] [on other hand, I have so say I thought the same thing initially about McChrystal] [so I am holding judgment] [*]
“Conducting research on important issues for individual VIP visitors to tailor talking points and connect with their interests and concerns is not IO. I guarantee all senior commanders have staff performing this kind of work. It’s merely being prepared and doing your homework,” the aide e-mails.
According to this version of events, only after Holmes found himself in hot water in an investigation did he run to Hastings with a story of a propaganda-happy Caldwell.
But internal e-mails from Caldwell’s command, known as NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan (NTM-A), show that Holmes routinely worked on information operations for the general.
First, a disclosure: Both Michael Hastings, the author of the Rolling Stone piece, and Caldwell are longtime friends of this blog. [*]
According to Hastings’ piece, Caldwell asked Holmes for information on visiting legislators that a quick googling could retrieve: voting records, pet issues and “pressure points we could use to leverage the delegation for more funds [and] more people,” Holmes recounted to Hastings — the Afghanistan training effort still needs more training and personnel. Holmes initially cooperated. But in mid-March 2010, according to an NTM-A timeline obtained by Danger Room, Holmes “expressed concern” that the tasking was an “illegal” psychological operation. [?] [he apparently thinks it crossed a line at some point but it’s not clear when-where or what the line was?] [*]
That prompted Caldwell’s chief of staff, Col. Joseph Buche, to investigate. On March 30, an NTM-A lawyer determined “evidence” that Holmes and a subordinate, Maj. Laural Levine, were in an “inappropriate relationship” in which they wore civilian clothes and drank alcohol off-base, in violation of a military restriction on boozing it up in Afghanistan. The investigation had a new target. [BFD?] [*]
In the e-mails reviewed by Danger Room, Holmes defends his trips off base in civilian clothing as necessary to conduct information operations. One e-mail from May 10, 2010, [he may have felt he had to act but he just threw his career away] [he seemed strangely unaware that his career is over?] [*] refers to a documentary NTM-A wanted to make about “community policing.” Referring to the documentary as the work of an IOTF — Information Operations Task Force — Holmes says that for the film to be persuasive, “there should be no open military presence either on film, or in the area during the shooting.” That means getting the men in “sportscoats and chinos” and the women in headscarves. In his e-mail signature, Holmes refers to himself as chief of an “IO FST” — an Information Operations Field Support Team.
A different e-mail explains that the Afghan government also sought to get U.S. military personnel in civilian garb, so they’d be less conspicuous. On May 4, 2010, a State Department official affirmed that a spokesman for President Hamid Karzai wanted U.S. forces at a Kabul media center to “strive to be in civilian clothing whenever possible.”
Jack Kem, Caldwell’s top civilian deputy, balked at having military personnel in civvies, for fear that their “concealed weapons” would be legally problematic if the service members were captured. Holmes continued to argue in his defense that he was asked to wear civilian clothes at weekly meetings with an Information Operations Task Force.
Ultimately, Holmes departed Afghanistan in September, after calling the inquiry into his civilian clothing a “kangaroo court.” He now runs a consulting firm specializing in “strategic communications” — another cousin of propaganda — in Texas, according to the firm’s Facebook page. [so he has axe to grind] [his career was already smashed] [but this sounds somewhat like sour grapes] [*]
The clothing issue is less important than what it shows: that Holmes was indeed working on information operations for Caldwell. Caldwell’s staff argues that Holmes wasn’t working on information ops when he was dealing with U.S. senators or congressmen. But Caldwell’s aide conceded that he can’t document that claim. [*]
Ultimately, it’ll for Petraeus to determine. But in Holmes’ case, the already-blurry lines between spin and propaganda got muddied by having an information operations officer involved in congressional glad-handing. Psychological operations are supposed to muddle the messages of foreign enemies or disrupt their communications. (Think the Air Force’s Commando Solo spy plane, which can disrupt an adversary’s broadcasts and replace them with pro-U.S. propaganda.)
But many a commander has lamented that messages from insurgents can chip away at domestic U.S. support for a war, while American hearts and minds aren’t supposed to be targeted by the U.S. military. In reality, the military has workarounds. Every single military command wants to influence Congress to protect their budgets, missions and turf. Sponsored trips to tour the war zones for legislators, think-tankers and even journalists are coordinated events to put the best spin possible on the war effort. Is that spin or propaganda?
The distinction is supposed to be enforced by staffing — that is, keeping the information operations folk out of the public-relations game. “It is a pretty big old red line,” says Bob Mackey, a retired Army officer with intelligence experience; Smith-Mundt is supposed to block the military from even using “truthful IO” on Americans. Petraeus will have to determine if Holmes’ involvement in Caldwell’s congressional outreach maintained that bulwark or eroded it.
For what it’s worth, one of the targets of the alleged psy-ops campaign, Sen. Carl Levin, is calling no harm, no foul. Levin’s long been an advocate of boosting training for the Afghan security forces so U.S. troops can withdraw. [*]“I have never needed any convincing on this point,” he said in a statement. He expressed confidence that “the chain of command will review any allegation that information operations have been improperly used in Afghanistan.”

Posted by Kent Bolton at 12:42 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8346498/If-the-Saudis-revolt-the-worlds-in-trouble.html
The Telegraph
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:24:03 AM] [*]
If the Saudis revolt, the world’s in trouble
The fate of the global recovery rests on events in Riyadh , says Jeremy Warner.
Footage from an amateur video shows protestors watching a police station burn in Tobruk, By Jeremy Warner 8:24PM GMT 24 Feb 2011 [commentary, from UK] [UK] [London] [EU3] [Jasmine Revolution] [it’s an interesting question and I suppose it begs additional ones about what’s at the heart of the Jasmine Revolution?] [the more cautious Realpolitik view, often represented in conventional British media] [each time the administration tacitly or directly blesses people overthrowing tyrants, it’s one step closer to making the choice on Saudi] [America, since the 1980s (President Reagan) has had a special relationship with Saudi] [Saudis, in turn, protect America’s oil supply] [the freedom agenda of former President Bush complicated the relationship (though he was well liked inside the monoarchy) and Obama has more or less leaned into Bush’s freedom agenda] [use psci 355-455] [*]
Be careful what you wish for. After an ambiguous start, Western leaders [policymakers certainly have but they don’t define the entire universe of leaders?] [*]have broadly

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/8346498/If-the-Saudis-revolt-the-worlds-in-trouble.html
The Telegraph
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:24:03 AM] [*]
If the Saudis revolt, the world’s in trouble
The fate of the global recovery rests on events in Riyadh , says Jeremy Warner.
Footage from an amateur video shows protestors watching a police station burn in Tobruk, By Jeremy Warner 8:24PM GMT 24 Feb 2011 [commentary, from UK] [UK] [London] [EU3] [Jasmine Revolution] [it’s an interesting question and I suppose it begs additional ones about what’s at the heart of the Jasmine Revolution?] [the more cautious Realpolitik view, often represented in conventional British media] [each time the administration tacitly or directly blesses people overthrowing tyrants, it’s one step closer to making the choice on Saudi] [America, since the 1980s (President Reagan) has had a special relationship with Saudi] [Saudis, in turn, protect America’s oil supply] [the freedom agenda of former President Bush complicated the relationship (though he was well liked inside the monoarchy) and Obama has more or less leaned into Bush’s freedom agenda] [use psci 355-455] [*]
Be careful what you wish for. After an ambiguous start, Western leaders [policymakers certainly have but they don’t define the entire universe of leaders?] [*]have broadly welcomed the wave of protest and revolutions sweeping North Africa and parts of the Middle East. But beneath the words of encouragement about people taking charge of their own destiny, there is a growing and vital concern – the security of our oil and gas supplies.
The West’s complicity in supporting the autocratic regimes that characterise many of the big oil-exporting nations is in part explained by the fact that, whatever their sins, they did at least seem to provide stability in the energy markets. That stability, however, has been thrown up in the air by the wave of protest sweeping the region.
Initially, it was assumed that there was a difference between oil-poor Arab nations such as Tunisia and Egypt, where the uprisings have been as much about living standards as anything else, and the much richer Gulf states. [largely true] [I, for example, thought it all unlikely in Saudi (but then I thought it unlikely in Egypt)] [but Bahrain belies that thinking in part] [*]That theory was swiftly proved wrong.
In Saudi Arabia, even King Abdullah’s panicky decision to order another multi-billion-dollar splurge of spending on education, healthcare and infrastructure may not be enough to buy off the opposition. [*]People seem to want something more precious than money: freedom.[*]
Whatever happens, speculation about the possibility of major interruptions in supply has sent the already perky oil price bounding higher. At one point yesterday, Brent crude hit $120 a barrel, [yikes] [*]which in real terms is approaching the sort of peaks we saw in the 1970s.
That’s making policymakers decidedly jumpy. Never mind the effect on inflation, which is already elevated, and the consequent implications for interest rates – by absorbing money which would normally be spent on other things, high oil prices have powerfully negative consequences for demand. Each of the last five global recessions has been preceded by a sharp spike in oil prices. Are we about to see the same thing happen again?
Everyone has been so focused on buttressing the banking system against further catastrophe that they seem to have forgotten about the continued power of oil to shock. [*] Analysts have polarised into two distinct camps – the alarmist and the broadly sanguine, with little room for argument in between. [*]
Those of a sanguine disposition point to the fact that, although Libya is an important producer, it represents less than 2 per cent of global output. Even if all production were suddenly to cease, the Saudis and other producers should be able to fill the gap from their ample reserves of spare capacity.
This, of course, assumes that the Saudis do indeed possess such spare capacity (many believe they don’t) and that it remains largely unaffected by the unrest. If Saudi falls, then the oil price will go through the roof, and probably stay there for a considerable length of time. That’s the alarmist scenario – and it seems more likely by the day. [I don’t care how much the US would like to see democratization in the region] [it has to stop at the Saudis?] [the US-Saudi relationship is near total interdependency] [*]
Since the oil price shocks of the 1970s, Western economies have very considerably reduced their “energy intensity”, the amount of energy they use for any given unit of economic output. This, in turn, has limited their vulnerability to oil price shocks.
One positive effect of high prices is that they encourage this process. After each recession, the gas guzzlers eventually return to American highways, but always in smaller numbers than before. Most nations are also taking steps to insulate themselves from these shocks by developing alternative sources of energy. If oil consumption per head in the US were to fall to European levels, it would reduce world demand by a quantity approximately equal to Saudi’s entire output.
But these things take time. And while energy intensity is falling in the West, it’s surging in the developing world. Technology transfer ought to mean that emerging markets such as China will reach peak energy intensity at a much earlier stage of their development than the industrial pioneers of the West did – but even so, the peak is still some decades off, and in the meantime demand will keep on growing. [*]
Most models that predict the effect of rising oil prices on economic output have always struck me as fairly meaningless. To say that for every $10 the price increases, 0.5 per cent gets knocked off global GDP, doesn’t tell you much – what matters is the speed with which prices rise and the time they stay high. The damage to confidence caused by a fast-rising oil price tends to have a much greater impact on demand, particularly in the US, where the price of petrol is a key determinant of overall spending.
After a very rapid increase, of the sort we’ve seen in the past year, there comes a point when consumers collectively decide to go on strike and stop spending. We are, I fear, perilously close to that tipping point. With advanced economies still struggling to emerge from the financial crisis, another oil price shock is just what we don’t need right. So now, everything depends on Saudi Arabia. [*]
If it succumbs to the contagion, or fails to compensate for lost production in Libya by boosting its output, then we may have to wave the global recovery goodbye.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 12:40 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=209863&R=R1
Jerusalem Post
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:08:16 AM] [*]
'Syria evades IAEA request for access to nuclear site'
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
25/02/2011 [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [Israeli media reporting on Syria (where Iranian ships just docked after Suez transit)!] [first time Iran has transitted Suez with warships since 1979 revolutipn!] [*]
UN atomic agency rebuffed by Syrian FM, who promised cooperation in vague terms, but failed to offer access to site, [*]diplomats say.
VIENNA—Syria has evaded a request from the head of the UN atomic agency for access to a suspected nuclear site, diplomats said Friday.
Israeli warplanes destroyed what the US says was a secretly built nuclear reactor in 2007. Syria allowed International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to visit the site once, but has

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=209863&R=R1
Jerusalem Post
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:08:16 AM] [*]
'Syria evades IAEA request for access to nuclear site'
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
25/02/2011 [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [Israeli media reporting on Syria (where Iranian ships just docked after Suez transit)!] [first time Iran has transitted Suez with warships since 1979 revolutipn!] [*]
UN atomic agency rebuffed by Syrian FM, who promised cooperation in vague terms, but failed to offer access to site, [*]diplomats say.
VIENNA—Syria has evaded a request from the head of the UN atomic agency for access to a suspected nuclear site, diplomats said Friday.
Israeli warplanes destroyed what the US says was a secretly built nuclear reactor in 2007. Syria allowed International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to visit the site once, but has refused subsequent requests. [*]
IAEA chief Yukiya Amano had directly asked Syria's foreign minister in November to allow a new visit — in an unprecedented direct request. But a senior diplomat said Friday the foreign minister's response avoided mention of that site, promising only cooperation in vague terms.
Other diplomats said that amounts to a rejection of the request
The agency is attempting to probe both Syria and Iran. It is to release reports on both nations later Friday. [*]
The diplomats spoke anonymously because their information was confidential.
"Citizens want parliament and the Cabinet to go," protesters shouted, while those still backing the king clapped, danced and chanted, "Jordan is our beloved country and King Abdullah is our great leader."
Around 1,000 activists of similar affiliations protested in four other cities.
In his first public remarks, King Abdullah on Sunday called on his government to make "quick and real" reforms. [repeat of earlier piece on Jordan] [*]
He called for a comprehensive review of a heavily disputed election law that the opposition claims favors the king's Bedouin tribal loyalists at the expense of Islamists and other constituencies. The law was heavily criticized in the last parliamentary election in November.
The king, however, did not say whether he would relinquish the power to appoint prime ministers — a key demand of the protesters.
In one concession, the Cabinet this week revoked a legal provision requiring protesters to seek police permission before holding public rallies.
On Friday, Mansour, the opposition leader, called it a "positive, but insufficient step."
In the crowd, computer engineer Mohammed Husban, 25, said he joined the demonstration because "I want to the king to hear my voice, I want him to know that university graduates like me end up unemployed."
Civil servant Ibrahim Qaddri, 42, said he can barely make ends meet. "I have five children and I can't cope with the rising prices."
"Some people are getting richer from the corruption in the state, while the middle class, like me, is becoming poor," said 39-year-old shopkeeper [*]Yasin Abu Adawy.
"We don't want the king to go; we love him, but we want him to solve our problems and to give us hope for a better future," he added.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 12:40 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=209866&R=R1
Jerusalem Post
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:05:44 AM] [*]
Jordanians protest slow reform, warn time running out
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
25/02/2011 [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [Israeli news reporting on Jasmine Revolution in Jordan (horrifying to Israel?)] [*]
In largest crowd yet in 2 months of unrest in Kingdom, leader of Islamic Action Front says protesters' patience wearing thin.
AMMAN, Jordan— The leader of Jordan's largest opposition group warned that patience was running out with what he called the government's slow steps toward reform, as protesters took to the streets Friday in the largest outpouring yet in two months of unrest.
King Abdullah II, a key US ally in the Middle East, has so far failed to quiet the calls for sweeping political change that have hit his desert kingdom as unrest spirals throughout the

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=209866&R=R1
Jerusalem Post
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:05:44 AM] [*]
Jordanians protest slow reform, warn time running out
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
25/02/2011 [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [Israeli news reporting on Jasmine Revolution in Jordan (horrifying to Israel?)] [*]
In largest crowd yet in 2 months of unrest in Kingdom, leader of Islamic Action Front says protesters' patience wearing thin.
AMMAN, Jordan— The leader of Jordan's largest opposition group warned that patience was running out with what he called the government's slow steps toward reform, as protesters took to the streets Friday in the largest outpouring yet in two months of unrest.
King Abdullah II, a key US ally in the Middle East, has so far failed to quiet the calls for sweeping political change that have hit his desert kingdom as unrest spirals throughout the region. The protesters' key demands are for a bigger say in politics and for the prime minister to be chosen through elections, not by the king.
On Friday, the leader of the opposition Islamic Action Front told about 4,000 people gathered in the capital, Amman, that Jordanians were becoming "impatient with the slow and insufficient steps toward reforms." [Abdullah is afraid to concede too much as fear ot the camel getting its nose under the tent] [but he needs to make substantive concessions and a timely way if he has any hope of forestalling Jasmine] [*]
"Hurry up, hurry up, our government, the clock is ticking and people are eagerly waiting to see real and serious democratic reforms," Hamza Mansour said to loud applause by protesters shouting the rallying cry of "Allahu akbar," or "God is great."
For eight consecutive Fridays, Jordanians have held street demonstrations to demand political change, lower food prices and the dissolution of a parliament they say was chosen on the foundation of a flawed electoral law. Parliament is the only elected body in Jordan's national government. The king, who retains absolute powers, appoints and dismisses Cabinets and has the authority to dissolve the parliament. [*]
So far, the protests have been largely peaceful and the crowds are much smaller than in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya.
In a sign that the protest movement is gaining momentum, Friday's crowd in Amman was the largest so far and it was made up of a diverse sampling [*]of Jordan's many political shades. There were rights activists, university students, unionists, leftists, Islamists and those who want changes but remain loyal to the king.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 12:39 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/turkey-pm-to-confront-sarkozy-for-hindering-turkish-admittance-to-european-union-1.345692
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:13:09 AM] [*]
Published 13:24 25.02.11 [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [reporting on Turkey’s efforts to joing EU] [already on hold due to global eco meltdown but the admission was previously in trouble with France and Germany (2 of EU3)] [*]
Turkey PM to confront Sarkozy for hindering Turkish admittance to European Union
Sarkozy has not visited EU candidate Turkey since he came to office in 2007, and to Erdogan's chagrin Sarkozy is only coming to Turkey in his capacity as president of the Group of 20 nations.
By Reuters Tags: Israel news Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan says he will confront French President Nicolas Sarkozy over his negative stance towards Muslim Turkey's bid to join the European Union when he visits Ankara later on Friday. [*]
“We warned Sarkozy a lot on this subject. We said that the form of your approach to Turkey was very wrong,” Erdogan said in an interview with the ATV news channel aired late on

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/turkey-pm-to-confront-sarkozy-for-hindering-turkish-admittance-to-european-union-1.345692
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:13:09 AM] [*]
Published 13:24 25.02.11 [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [reporting on Turkey’s efforts to joing EU] [already on hold due to global eco meltdown but the admission was previously in trouble with France and Germany (2 of EU3)] [*]
Turkey PM to confront Sarkozy for hindering Turkish admittance to European Union
Sarkozy has not visited EU candidate Turkey since he came to office in 2007, and to Erdogan's chagrin Sarkozy is only coming to Turkey in his capacity as president of the Group of 20 nations.
By Reuters Tags: Israel news Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan says he will confront French President Nicolas Sarkozy over his negative stance towards Muslim Turkey's bid to join the European Union when he visits Ankara later on Friday. [*]
“We warned Sarkozy a lot on this subject. We said that the form of your approach to Turkey was very wrong,” Erdogan said in an interview with the ATV news channel aired late on Thursday.
The Turkish president continued, saying he will “ ask him this tomorrow. I will say, look you have made such and such a statement again, but you say different things to me.” [interesting] [*]
Turkey's bid for EU membership is faltering. Of Turkey's 35 chapters -- or negotiating subjects -- only one has been completed, 12 are under discussion and 18 have been frozen because of opposition from France, Cyprus and other members. [*]
Sarkozy has not visited EU candidate Turkey since he came to office in 2007, and to Erdogan's chagrin Sarkozy is only coming in his capacity as president of the Group of 20 nations.
Officials in Paris sought to downplay chances of talks focusing on Turkey's flagging bid to join the 27 nation bloc during Sarkozy's visit, saying the French president's meetings with President Abdullah Gul and Erdogan would mainly focus on G20 issues and Middle East foreign policy matters. [of course] [*]
Erdogan has said Turkish-French relations warrant a more substantive visit than the few hours Sarkozy has allocated. Bilateral trade was around 12 billion euros in 2010, and France
is among the largest foreign investors in Turkey.
In an interview with a Turkish newspaper published on Friday, Sarkozy reiterated his opposition to Turkey becoming a full member of the European Union, saying he would prefer it to become a privileged partner because of its role as a large country and bridge between East and West.
"For this reason, I believe it is necessary to have as close relations as possible, without going for full membership of the European Union, which would not actually be beneficial for either Turkey or the European Union," he said in written answers to questions from the Posta daily. [*]
"Obstruction"
German Chancellor Angela Merkel shares a similar view to Sarkozy. Erdogan, who is scheduled to meet her in Germany on Monday, before going for talks in Brussels on Tuesday with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, chided both the French and German governments for obstructing Turkey. [*]
"Don't change the rules during the game. You as Germany and France are now using your power to take such a stance against Turkey," Erdogan said. "I mean the EU needs Turkey, Turkey needs the EU."
Turkey, which began formal negotiations to join in 2005, complains of unfair treatment, having seen other would-be members make faster progress. [*]
"They presumably want us to give up. We are resisting this," said Erdogan. [*]
The Turkish Prime Minister said that if the European Union were to reject Turkey outright, it would still pursue reforms to bring economic and social legislation that is in line with Europe.
Erdogan's Justice and Development Party, known as the AK Party, made EU membership its top foreign policy goal, but public support has waned. [*]
After a decade of rapid growth, Turks are more confident in their economy, and have been put off by EU member states' reluctance to admit them to the bloc, while also noting the economic problems besetting the euro-zone.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 12:38 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/libyan-delegation-to-un-rights-council-resigns-1.345713
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:12:08 AM] [*]
Published 17:43 25.02.11
Libyan delegation to UN Rights Council resigns
[Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [reporting from Israel on the UN Human Rights Council] [the differnces between Egypt-Tunisia and Libya are absolutely demonstrable: Qaddafi’s own government took the first opportunity to defect!] [*]
Diplomats in Geneva erupt into applause at the surprise resignation by Adel Shaltut during a special session on the Libyan crisis; Libyan delegation to the Arab League changes name to 'the representative of Libyan people to the Arab League.' [I think Secretary Clinton is on her way there?] [*]
By News Agencies Tags: Israel news Libya Muammar Gadhafi Arab League UN
The Libyan Mission to the United Nations in Geneva on Friday resigned their post as official

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/libyan-delegation-to-un-rights-council-resigns-1.345713
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:12:08 AM] [*]
Published 17:43 25.02.11
Libyan delegation to UN Rights Council resigns
[Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [reporting from Israel on the UN Human Rights Council] [the differnces between Egypt-Tunisia and Libya are absolutely demonstrable: Qaddafi’s own government took the first opportunity to defect!] [*]
Diplomats in Geneva erupt into applause at the surprise resignation by Adel Shaltut during a special session on the Libyan crisis; Libyan delegation to the Arab League changes name to 'the representative of Libyan people to the Arab League.' [I think Secretary Clinton is on her way there?] [*]
By News Agencies Tags: Israel news Libya Muammar Gadhafi Arab League UN
The Libyan Mission to the United Nations in Geneva on Friday resigned their post as official envoys of Tripoli in the middle of a special session of the UN Human Rights Council. [Libya delegation resigned at sessin of UNHRC] [that’s long been a pet peeve of US: that Libya ever got voted onto the HRC] [*]
"We in the Libyan Mission have categorically decided to serve as representatives of the Libyan people and their free will," said an envoy during the session. "We represent only the Libyan people."
Diplomats in the hall erupted into applause at the surprise announcement by Adel Shaltut, a diplomat at the Libyan delegation to the United Nations in Geneva, during a special session on the Libyan crisis.
Meanwhile, the Libyan delegation to the Arab League in Cairo renounced links to Muammar Gadhafi on Friday and said it now represented the will of the people. [*]
"We have joined our people in their legitimate demands for change and the establishment of a democratic system," the Libyan delegation to the Arab League said in a statement, condemning "the heinous crimes against unarmed citizens". [this is actually interesting] [in past the Arab League would have colluded to keep quite, to watch and wait] [**]
The Libyan delegation to the Arab League has changed its name to "the representative of Libyan people to the Arab League," Ahmed Nassouf, Deputy Director of Protocol, told
Reuters. [interesting] [*]
The United Nation's top human rights official said reports of mass killings of thousands in Libya should spur the international community to step in vigorously to end the crackdown against anti-government protesters in the North African country.
Meanwhile, EU members agreed on a package of sanctions against Libya, the German Foreign Office said Friday. The formal decision will be taken next week.
Earlier, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay implored the UN Human Rights Council to use all means possible to establish an independent panel to investigate the alleged abuses by Libyan security forces and hold those responsible to account. [that will get ugly in a hurry] [there are a lot of embarrassing facts that it may uncover?] [*]
Observers of the Geneva-based council say African and Asian nations are wary of setting too strong a precedent that could be used against other human rights abusing regimes in future.
Suspending Libya's rights of membership under the rules for the council would require two-thirds approval of all the 192 countries in the UN General Assembly in New York. [depends upon the setting but generally the UN bodies require supermajorities] [e.g., on Security Council, 9/15 so long as no permanent member objects] [*]
Human rights activists said they expect a strongly worded resolution to pass, though it might be watered down by efforts to achieve the broadest possible consensus.
The UN Security Council also planned to meet later Friday in New York to consider actions against Gadhafi's regime.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 12:37 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/gadhafi-vows-to-triumph-over-his-enemies-we-will-fight-and-we-will-kill-them-1.345728
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:11:08 AM] [*]
Published 19:22 25.02.11 [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [remember, the Israelis were none too pleased with Bush’s freedom agenda and now they see Obama leaning into same!] [use psci 355-455] [*]
Gadhafi vows to triumph over his enemies: 'We will fight and we will kill them'
Addressing supporters in Tripoli, the Libyan leader urges crowd to protect the country's petroleum interests telling them to 'dance, sing and prepare.'
By News Agencies Tags: Israel news Libya Moammar Gadhafi UN US
Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi on Friday vowed defiantly to triumph over his enemies, urging his supporters in Tripoli's Green Square to protect Libya and its petroleum interests. [people need to understand how serious he is] [he truly believes he’s the best thing that

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/gadhafi-vows-to-triumph-over-his-enemies-we-will-fight-and-we-will-kill-them-1.345728
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/25/11 10:11:08 AM] [*]
Published 19:22 25.02.11 [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [remember, the Israelis were none too pleased with Bush’s freedom agenda and now they see Obama leaning into same!] [use psci 355-455] [*]
Gadhafi vows to triumph over his enemies: 'We will fight and we will kill them'
Addressing supporters in Tripoli, the Libyan leader urges crowd to protect the country's petroleum interests telling them to 'dance, sing and prepare.'
By News Agencies Tags: Israel news Libya Moammar Gadhafi UN US
Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi on Friday vowed defiantly to triumph over his enemies, urging his supporters in Tripoli's Green Square to protect Libya and its petroleum interests. [people need to understand how serious he is] [he truly believes he’s the best thing that ever happened to Islamic Maghreb-Africa] [he believes his own propoganda—no one has dared to tell him anything contrary for 40-plus years] [**]
In a show of strength that he still had control over the capital Gadhafi addressed cheering supporters from the old city ramparts looking over Green Square, Gadhafi, wearing a winter jacket and a hunter's cap that covered his ears, and said "Get ready to fight for Libya, get ready to fight for dignity, get ready to fight for petroleum."
The Libyan leader, who has lost swathes of his country to rebels, said: "Respond to them, put them to shame" and "we can triumph over the enemies." [exhorting loyalists—of whom there are precious few?—to begin to kill the protestors] [*]
Blowing kisses to his supporters and then shaking his fist in the air, Gadhafi said: "This nation, we are the nation of dignity and integrity, this nation has triumphed over (former colonial power) Italy." [as if the colonial card resonates with anyone under the age of 35?] [*]
Gadhafi shouted: "You must dance, sing, and prepare yourself ... this spirit you have is stronger than any other attempt by the foreigners and the enemies to destroy us." [ya, that’s it] [the Italians and Europeans are back?] [*]
Becoming more and more animated, Gadhafi said: "Muammar Gaddafi is amongst you. I stand among the people and we will fight and we will kill them if they want."
"Look at the people's force. This is the people's force that cannot be defeated," he said. "Do as you please. You are free to dance, sing, and celebrate in all squares throughout the night. Muammar Gadhafi is one of you. Dance, sing, rejoice!" [*]
Gadhafi said that life without the green banner was "useless," referring to the anti-Gadhafi protesters who have taken down the Libyan flag and replaced it with a flag used prior to his coup. "This is the invincible youth," [*]he said as he waved to supporters.
At least five people were killed ealier Friday when security forces opened fire on anti-government protesters in the Janzour district in the west of Tripoli, a witness said.
Militias loyal to Gadhafi initially fired in the air Friday to disperse marches by regime opponents defying the brutal clampdown that has left scores of Libyans dead.
Across rebellious cities in the east, thousands held rallies in support of the Tripoli protesters.
Meanwhile, European Union governments reached consensus on Friday on imposing an arms embargo, asset freezes and a travel ban on Libya, but a formal decision will only be taken early next week, diplomats said.
After a meeting of ambassadors from the 27 member states, no objections were raised to the idea of imposing sanctions on Muammar Gadhafi and his crumbling government, but the legal language and other details have still to be finalised. [EU imposed sanctions] [*]
"We expect a formal decision to be made early next week, possibly Monday or Tuesday," one EU diplomat said.
Another diplomat said the aim was to coordinate the move with the United States and the United Nations, where pressure is mounting for sanctions to be imposed via the Security Council.
EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton is expected to discuss coordinating the EU, U.S. and U.N. action when she meets U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Geneva on Monday.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 12:35 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/us/26texas.html
February 25, 2011
Saudi Student to Be Arraigned in Bomb Plot
By CHARLIE SAVAGE and SCOTT SHANE [obama white house] [residual from previous tenures] [112th congress, 1st session] [bureaucracy: FBI as part of IC and part of justice department] [prosecution of jihadis which has presented some problems to US] [NSC to bureaucracy] [federal judiciary] [continuity in USFP?] [use psci 355-455, 469] [LWOT] [is this a new texas jihadis?] [followup] [*]
WASHINGTON — A 20-year-old Saudi college student was scheduled to be arraigned in Texas on Friday morning for what federal officials said was a plot to carry out terrorist attacks inside the United States. [this must be a different Texas guy] [there was another in late 2009-early 2010] [*]
The student, Khalid Aldawsari, who wrote in his journal that he sought a student visa three years ago so he could carry out terrorist attacks, will be charged with the

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/us/26texas.html
February 25, 2011
Saudi Student to Be Arraigned in Bomb Plot
By CHARLIE SAVAGE and SCOTT SHANE [obama white house] [residual from previous tenures] [112th congress, 1st session] [bureaucracy: FBI as part of IC and part of justice department] [prosecution of jihadis which has presented some problems to US] [NSC to bureaucracy] [federal judiciary] [continuity in USFP?] [use psci 355-455, 469] [LWOT] [is this a new texas jihadis?] [followup] [*]
WASHINGTON — A 20-year-old Saudi college student was scheduled to be arraigned in Texas on Friday morning for what federal officials said was a plot to carry out terrorist attacks inside the United States. [this must be a different Texas guy] [there was another in late 2009-early 2010] [*]
The student, Khalid Aldawsari, who wrote in his journal that he sought a student visa three years ago so he could carry out terrorist attacks, will be charged with the attempted use of a weapon of mass destruction, officials said.
By the time Mr. Aldawsari, a community college student in Lubbock, Tex., came to the attention of the authorities this month, he had obtained two of the three chemicals needed for a bomb and was researching potential targets — including the Dallas residence of former President George W. Bush, the homes of three former military guards at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq and dams in Colorado and California, an F.B.I. affidavit said. [*]
Mr. Aldawsari’s journal, which says “it is time for jihad,” and his e-mail account also contained at least two semicryptic references to New York — a plan to spend a week there as part of a to-do list that culminated in leaving car bombs in unidentified places during rush hour and a link to a Web site of feeds from the city’s traffic cameras, the F.B.I. complaint said. [*]
The New York City police commissioner, Raymond W. Kelly, said the department had been following the case from the beginning, adding that the plan “sure gives us cause for concern, but we are not surprised — New York is at the top of the terrorist target list.” A law enforcement official said Mr. Aldawsari had visited the city, but gave no details.
A North Carolina chemical supply company reported Mr. Aldawsari to the Federal Bureau of Investigation on Feb. 1, citing a suspicious order, the complaint said. [good for them] [*] Officials said that set off a fast-moving investigation involving hundreds of agents, prosecutors and analysts. “Yesterday’s arrest demonstrates the need for and the importance of vigilance and the willingness of private individuals and companies to ask questions and contact the authorities when confronted with suspicious activities,” said James T. Jacks, [so he’s a recent new jihadis] [*] United States attorney for the Northern District of Texas, said Thursday.
Federal officials declined to discuss whether Mr. Aldawsari’s student visa application raised any red flags. But Representative Lamar Smith, the Texas Republican who leads the Judiciary Committee, condemned the immigration system for allowing him to enter the country — comparing him to the hijackers in the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, most of whom were Saudis with valid visas. “Until we crack down on our immigration laws that allow terrorists to enter the U.S., history will continue to repeat itself,” Mr. Smith said.
The complaint says that Mr. Aldawsari complied with immigration rules by notifying the authorities each time he transferred to a different school.
Nail al-Jubeir, a Saudi Embassy spokesman, said more than 30,000 Saudi students were in the United States and he knew of no other Saudi student arrested here on terrorism charges since 2001. “We were informed about the arrest, and we’re working closely with U.S. authorities,” [*]he said.
The complaint suggests that investigators have so far found no conspirators and no links to terrorist organizations, though his Facebook page listed several groups opposed to the Saudi monarchy. The F.B.I. document says he wrote in his journal that he wanted to found a terrorist group under the Qaeda umbrella to carry out attacks in the United States. [appears to be lone wolf] [*]
“I excelled in my studies in high school in order to take advantage of an opportunity for a scholarship to America,” investigators said he wrote in Arabic. “And now, after mastering the English language, learning how to build explosives, and continuous planning to target the infidel Americans, it is time for Jihad.” [*]
Mr. Aldawsari came to the United States in September 2008. He studied English at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, and transferred in August 2009 to Texas Tech University in Lubbock, and then to a nearby campus of South Plains College last month.
Mr. Aldawsari led a solitary life at Texas Tech, rarely speaking to other students, said three former roommates who requested anonymity because they feared association with him would hurt their careers. They said Mr. Aldawsari lived with them for a year while he studied chemistry.
He kept his food separate in a small refrigerator in his room and kept his room locked when he was out. He would often bang on the walls of his room in anger or frustration.
“He was just in his own bubble,” said one 20-year-old roommate from Dallas.
He could often be heard talking loudly on the telephone in Arabic in the mornings, and in the afternoon he streamed Arabic television stations at a high volume.
He was not outwardly religious, the roommates said. [*]
A Facebook page for Mr. Aldawsari says he is from Al Kharj, in central Saudi Arabia, and lists interests ranging from “STOP Israel’s War Crimes in Gaza” and several Saudi dissident groups to Agatha Christie and zombies.
Mr. Aldawsari wrote in his journal that he was inspired by Osama bin Laden’s speeches and that the 9/11 attacks had produced a “big change” in his thinking, the authorities said. The F.B.I. also said he wrote a blog, FromFarAway90, where posts in Arabic refer to war and distress in Palestine, infidels in the Islamic world and martyrdom. [there are any number of Arabs in America who feel similarly] [only a relative few then go on to attempt to become jihadis] [*]
The handwritten journal was also said to list “important steps,” including obtaining a forged United States birth certificate; applying for a passport and driver’s license; traveling to New York for a week; and renting cars in disguise, putting bombs with remote detonators in them and taking them to various places during rush hour.
Mr. Aldawsari was reported to the authorities twice this month. On Feb. 1, Carolina Biological Supply in Burlington, N.C., told the F.B.I. that he had tried to place a $435 order for phenol on its Web site the day before. [*]
Phenol is explosive when mixed with sulfuric and nitric acids. Mr. Aldawsari had already managed to buy three gallons of sulfuric acid and about eight gallons of nitric acid at other places in December, the affidavit said. [*]
Because Carolina Biological Supply would not ship phenol to a residential address, Mr. Aldawsari had to have his order sent to a freight firm in Lubbock. But the firm returned the shipment to North Carolina, and then reported it to the Lubbock police. [*]
Later, after the supply firm, at the F.B.I.’s request, pressed Mr. Aldawsari to explain why he wanted the chemical, he angrily canceled the order. On Feb. 12, the affidavit says, he e-mailed himself procedures for extracting phenol from aspirin. [*]
The authorities said he sent additional e-mails to himself listing “nice targets” and instructions for converting a cellphone into a detonator. One e-mail, titled “Tyrant’s House,” contained Mr. Bush’s address in Dallas. [*]
Mr. Aldawsari also searched on the Internet for rules on backpacks in Dallas nightclubs and looked at pictures of dolls, the F.B.I. said, suggesting that he may have considered nightclub attacks or concealing explosives.
The search of his apartment, the affidavit said, also found chemical lab equipment, a gas mask, a hazardous materials suit and Christmas lighting it said was suitable for bomb making.
Al Baker contributed reporting from New York, and James C. McKinley Jr. from Lubbock, Tex.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:51 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/middleeast/25diplomacy.html
February 24, 2011
U.S. Trying to Pick Winners in New Mideast
By MARK LANDLER and HELENE COOPER [Obama white house] [112th congress, 1st session] [foreign-policy, national-security bureaucracy, mostly] [continuity in USFP] [GSAVE, Jasmine Revolution] [NSC principals and others] [use psci 355-455] [in past 2 days, analysis using Realpolitik appeared with Iran benefitting from disturbances in Sunni Arab world (if only for short term) and implications] [as always, the dilemma for US between Realpolitik (on the one hand) and its natural inclination for neoliberalism (on the other)] [not just Bush or Obama—entire Cold War and since!] [*]
WASHINGTON — As the Obama administration grapples with a cascade of uprisings in the Middle East, it has come to a stark recognition: the region’s monarchs are likely to survive; its presidents are more likely to fall.
In the rapidly changing map that stretches from Morocco to Iran, two presidents

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/middleeast/25diplomacy.html
February 24, 2011
U.S. Trying to Pick Winners in New Mideast
By MARK LANDLER and HELENE COOPER [Obama white house] [112th congress, 1st session] [foreign-policy, national-security bureaucracy, mostly] [continuity in USFP] [GSAVE, Jasmine Revolution] [NSC principals and others] [use psci 355-455] [in past 2 days, analysis using Realpolitik appeared with Iran benefitting from disturbances in Sunni Arab world (if only for short term) and implications] [as always, the dilemma for US between Realpolitik (on the one hand) and its natural inclination for neoliberalism (on the other)] [not just Bush or Obama—entire Cold War and since!] [*]
WASHINGTON — As the Obama administration grapples with a cascade of uprisings in the Middle East, it has come to a stark recognition: the region’s monarchs are likely to survive; its presidents are more likely to fall.
In the rapidly changing map that stretches from Morocco to Iran, two presidents have already tumbled: Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia. Administration officials said they believe that Yemen’s authoritarian president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, is in an increasingly tenuous position.
Yet in Bahrain, King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa has so far managed to weather a surge of unrest, winning American support, even though his security forces were brutal in their crackdown of protesters. Officials believe that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is also unlikely to be dethroned, while the emirs of the Persian Gulf have so far escaped unrest. Even in Jordan, where serious protests erupted, King Abdullah II has maneuvered deftly to stay in power, though he still has to contend with a restive Palestinian population.
This pattern of kings holding on to power is influencing the administration’s response to the crisis: the United States has sent out senior diplomats in recent days to offer the monarchs reassurance and advice — even those who lead the most stifling governments. But it is keeping its distance from autocratic presidents as they fight to hold power.
By all accounts, that is more a calculation of American interests than anything else.
“What the monarchies have going for them are royal families that allow them to stand above the fray, to a certain extent,” said Kenneth M. Pollack, the director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. “It allows them to sack the government without sacking themselves.” [*]
Many of the monarchs have run governments every bit as repressive as the presidents’. And the American calculation of who is likely to hang on to power has as much to do with the religious, demographic and economic makeups of the countries as with the nature of the governments.
Arab presidents pretend to be democratically chosen, even though most of their elections are rigged. Their veneer of legitimacy vanishes when pent-up grievances in their societies explode. Most of the presidents oversee more populous countries, without the oil wealth of the gulf monarchies, which would enable them to placate their populations with tax cuts and pay raises, like the kings of Saudi Arabia and Jordan have done recently. [*]
The Americans acknowledge that they have no choice but to support countries like Saudi Arabia, and that all of the situations could change rapidly. [*]
A case in point is Libya, where Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi — neither a king nor a president — has been brought to the verge of collapse with dizzying speed.
On Thursday, the administration failed again to evacuate diplomats and other American citizens from Libya. A ferry chartered by the United States government remained tied up at a pier in the capital, Tripoli, unable to sail to Malta because of heavy seas in the Mediterranean.
The 285 passengers are safe, according to the State Department spokesman, Philip J. Crowley, but they cannot leave the ship, which he said is guarded by Libyan security forces. A hotel across the street from the pier has been the site of gun battles between rebels and loyalists of Colonel Qaddafi, witnesses said.
The stalled evacuation has led the Obama administration to temper its condemnations of Colonel Qaddafi’s government, because officials worry that the Libyan government could take Americans hostage. But Mr. Crowley said Thursday that the United States would support a European proposal to expel Libya from the United Nations Human Rights Council, when it meets in Geneva on Monday.
Unlike in the case of Egypt, where President Obama spoke by phone with Mr. Mubarak several times during the crisis there, neither he nor any other American official has spoken with Colonel Qaddafi since the violence erupted. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton was unable to reach the foreign minister, Moussa Koussa, Mr. Crowley said, citing a technical glitch.
The under secretary of state for political affairs, William J. Burns, did speak twice with Mr. Koussa, he said, and conveyed the administration’s “concern” that Libya continue to cooperate with the evacuation. [*]
The spotty American communication with Libya contrasts with the regular phone calls Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton have held with Arab monarchs. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia pressed Mr. Obama in at least two conversations to back Mr. Mubarak. Since his ouster, an administration official said, Saudi officials have expressed some misgivings about their support for the former Egyptian leader.
So far, the kings appear to be hanging on.
The administration is sanguine that the Saudi royal family will survive any upheaval, though some acknowledge that they misread the prospects for change in Egypt. Earlier this week, King Abdullah, returning home from three months of medical treatment abroad, announced a $10 billion increase in welfare spending to help young people marry, buy homes and open businesses.
The administration has urged Saudi Arabia not to impede King Hamad’s attempt to undertake reforms in Bahrain, an island connected to Saudi Arabia by a causeway and dependent on the Saudis for political and economic support. [I actually agree in that case] [but Iran will benefit in short term] [*] Saudi Arabia is rattled by the prospect of Bahrain’s Shiite Muslim majority’s gaining more political power, at the expense of its Sunni rulers, in part because Saudi Arabia has a substantial Shiite population in its east. [Iran has inarguably benefitted for short term with Iraq liberation-invasion] [it will benefit in short term as regional powers such as Egypt go under] [*]
American officials have sought to keep the focus on what they insist have been concessions made by Bahrain, where the Navy’s Fifth Fleet is stationed, as a sign that the protests can prod the king, and the crown prince who will head the dialogue with the protesters, in the right direction.
Similarly, in Jordan, King Abdullah, who faces a tricky situation because of his majority Palestinian population, has signaled a willingness to cede some power to an elected government or parliament. American officials and independent experts say that they think that could allow him to hang on to power. The administration’s clear hope is that all these kingdoms will eventually be constitutional monarchies.
“That approach to Jordan or Bahrain is the right approach; these are countries that have moved in the right direction, but not enough,” said Elliott Abrams, a Middle East adviser in the Bush administration who has been a frequent critic of the Obama administration. “Constitutional monarchy is a form of democracy.” [interesting that Elliot feels no compunction about handicapping?] [he just lambasted Obama withing last 2-3 days] [*]
There has been far less unrest in other Persian Gulf states, like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar or Kuwait — in part, experts say, because they are essentially regal welfare states, where citizens pay no taxes and are looked after by the government. In the United Arab Emirates, for example, when one citizen marries another citizen, the government helps to pay for the wedding and even to buy a home.
Even so, an administration official noted, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohammed bin Zayed, recently toured less prosperous parts of the United Arab Emirates to hold town-hall-style meetings — at least a nod to democratic rule.
“The truly wealthy societies like Qatar, the U.A.E. and Kuwait have greater advantages,” said Ted Kattouf, a former United States ambassador to Syria. In many ways, he added, “the monarchies have more legitimacy than the republics.”
In Yemen, a lack of legitimacy is plaguing President Saleh and the prospect of instability there poses national security problems for the United States, which has had the government’s support for counterterrorism operations. Protesters are demanding his resignation even after he pledged not to seek re-election. The administration is pushing Mr. Saleh — a crafty authoritarian who has manipulated factions in his country to cling to power for 30 years — to revive a stalled effort at constitutional reform, though an official expressed pessimism about the likelihood of progress.
“The republics — and hence, the presidents — are the most vulnerable because they’re supposed to be democracies but ultimately are not,” said an Arab diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “They pretend people have a voice, but this voice doesn’t exist. With the monarchy, no one’s pretending there’s a democracy.”

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:50 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/24/AR2011022407829.html
Some now question U.S. deal that brought Gaddafi back into diplomatic fold
By Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, February 25, 2011; A08 [Obama white house] [112th congress, 1st session] [foreign-policy, national-security bureaucracy, mostly] [continuity in USFP] [GSAVE, Jasmine Revolution] [NSC principals and others] [use psci 355-455] [in past 2 days, analysis using Realpolitik appeared with Iran benefitting from disturbances in Sunni Arab world (if only for short term) and implications] [*]
In 2003, the Western view of Libya's autocratic president was much the same as it is now: a dangerously unstable tyrant who slaughters his own people. But late that year, Moammar Gaddafi sent a secret message to a British diplomat saying he was ready to change.
"He wanted to come in from the cold," said a former senior aide to President George W. Bush who worked in the White House when the request came in. Within months, the Bush administration was actively furthering a U.S. and British diplomatic courtship of the

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/24/AR2011022407829.html
Some now question U.S. deal that brought Gaddafi back into diplomatic fold
By Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, February 25, 2011; A08 [Obama white house] [112th congress, 1st session] [foreign-policy, national-security bureaucracy, mostly] [continuity in USFP] [GSAVE, Jasmine Revolution] [NSC principals and others] [use psci 355-455] [in past 2 days, analysis using Realpolitik appeared with Iran benefitting from disturbances in Sunni Arab world (if only for short term) and implications] [*]
In 2003, the Western view of Libya's autocratic president was much the same as it is now: a dangerously unstable tyrant who slaughters his own people. But late that year, Moammar Gaddafi sent a secret message to a British diplomat saying he was ready to change.
"He wanted to come in from the cold," said a former senior aide to President George W. Bush who worked in the White House when the request came in. Within months, the Bush administration was actively furthering a U.S. and British diplomatic courtship of the Libyan leader that had begun under President Bill Clinton. [forget what he wanted, it was a fair exchange as it ridded world of Qaddafi’s nuclear WMD] [*]
With substantial U.S. backing, Gaddafi publicly abandoned his pursuit of weapons of mass destruction in 2004 and later renounced his support for terrorist groups, a dramatic turnabout that was rewarded with full U.S. diplomatic recognition. Yet while the reforms succeeded in ending Gaddafi's status as an international pariah, Libyan promises of political reform never materialized. Now, after this week's violent crackdown on protesters in Tripoli, human rights groups and some Libyan opposition leaders are asking whether the United States was duped in 2003 into propping up one of the world's most repressive regimes.
In hindsight, the deal struck with Gaddafi did little to help ordinary Libyans, said Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a Washington research institute. [I don’t remember anyone saying Qaddafi would become egalitarian?] [*]
"We rehabilitated a cruel dictator in the interest of securing American policy gains," Miller said. Though the policy change had its merits, "it was a devil's bargain because we essentially said, 'If you support our policies on war and peace, we'll give you a pass on human rights,' " Miller said. [hard to tell whether Miller believes this generally or is using to go after Bush’s freedom agenda?] [but Realpolitik has always found liberalism-neoliberalism myopic] [*]
Others argue that Libyans would likely be no better off today if the deal had not been struck, and indeed, by almost every measure, the perils facing the region would be far worse.
"His nuclear program would still be intact and even further developed, and he would have his missiles and chemical weapons to use as he wishes," said Elliott Abrams, a former foreign policy adviser to both Bush and President Ronald Reagan. Rejecting Gaddafi's overture would have left the West without any levers for influencing Libyan behavior, he added. "It would be saying to him, 'You go on making nuclear weapons and supporting terrorists, and we'll just make speeches' " about human rights, Abrams said. [both things are true at the same time] [in other words, there are always tradeoffs] [welcome to the world of policymaking] [*]
The deal exemplified Gaddafi's ability to command international attention, in part because of Libya's oil resources, but also because Gaddafi pursued advanced weapons, supported terrorist groups and put himself forward as the leader of an entire continent.
Gaddafi's surprise diplomatic overture to the West in 2003 came at a time when his country was struggling economically under U.N. economic sanctions and locked in a state of perpetual conflict with the world's only superpower. The United States had bombed Libya in the 1980s in retaliation for Libyan-backed terrorist attacks, and Washington was pushing for hundreds of millions of dollars in restitution payments for Libya's role in the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over the Scottish town of Lockerbie. At the time, Gaddafi had also just witnessed a devastating display of U.S military might in Iraq, as U.S.-led forces crushed Saddam Hussein's army in less than three weeks. [brief chronology from Reagan forward] [*]
The initial contact with British diplomats led to a U.S.-brokered deal that would eventually lead to political rehabilitation for Gaddafi and his government in return for dismantling programs to build nuclear and chemical weapons and advanced missiles.
"We had a huge bonanza: cooperation on counterterrorism and on the problem of weapons proliferation," said David L. Mack, a former U.S. ambassador to the Middle East and a deputy secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs. "The Libyans gave us the keys to the whole A.Q. Khan network," said Mack, [*]referring to the international nuclear smuggling ring led by Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan.
Abrams, who in 2003 was the top Middle East adviser to the Bush administration's National Security Council, acknowledged that White House demands for Libyan political reform were "muted," despite the intense pressure applied by the administration on other Middle Eastern governments to allow greater political freedom. [which is why I though Elliots recent oped was incredibly shortsighted] [he knew he was vulnerable to this sort of countercharge?] [*]
"We had just cut a deal with this guy. It would have been wrong to immediately start firing at him verbally," Abrams said. He added that administration officials did begin engaging with other members of Gaddafi's family and senior staff - including his Western-educated son, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi - to win support for the gradual introduction of reforms.
The lack of progress in those efforts was underscored by this week's violence, which Middle East experts said demonstrated how little Gaddafi's domestic policies had changed in the six years since Libya normalized relations with the United States in 2006. Then, as now, Gaddafi wielded absolute power and sought to crush potential rivals from tribal, political or religious groups opposed to his one-man rule.
Decades of repression have left the country's population with little background or experience with which to build a democratic society. Unlike with other repressive regimes in neighboring countries, there have been few exchange programs or cooperative agreements that allow military officers to travel and train in the West, noted Mack, the former Middle Eastern ambassador.
"We can have impact in these countries, but it has to occur over time, through interaction," Mack said. "In this case, we have lost two entire generations of Libyans who have experienced none of it."
Staff researcher Julie Tate contributed to this report. © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:49 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/business/economy/25econ.html
February 24, 2011
Rising Oil Prices Pose New Threat to U.S. Economy
By MOTOKO RICH, CATHERINE RAMPELL and DAVID STREITFELD
This article is by Motoko Rich, Catherine Rampell and David Streitfeld. [commentary and analysis] [so societal] [but also news about global marketplace of oil] [cross in societal] [Jasmine Revolution’s externalities] [the rapid rise of oil and how it affects the recovering global economy] [use psci 355-455] [*]
The American economy just can’t catch a break.
Last year, as things started looking up, the European debt crisis flustered the fragile recovery. Now, under similar economic circumstances, comes the turmoil in the Middle East.
Energy prices have surged in recent days, as a result of the political violence in Libya that has disrupted oil production there. Prices are also climbing because of fears the unrest may continue to spread to other oil-producing countries. [demonstrably

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/business/economy/25econ.html
February 24, 2011
Rising Oil Prices Pose New Threat to U.S. Economy
By MOTOKO RICH, CATHERINE RAMPELL and DAVID STREITFELD
This article is by Motoko Rich, Catherine Rampell and David Streitfeld. [commentary and analysis] [so societal] [but also news about global marketplace of oil] [cross in societal] [Jasmine Revolution’s externalities] [the rapid rise of oil and how it affects the recovering global economy] [use psci 355-455] [*]
The American economy just can’t catch a break.
Last year, as things started looking up, the European debt crisis flustered the fragile recovery. Now, under similar economic circumstances, comes the turmoil in the Middle East.
Energy prices have surged in recent days, as a result of the political violence in Libya that has disrupted oil production there. Prices are also climbing because of fears the unrest may continue to spread to other oil-producing countries. [demonstrably true] [*]
If the recent rise in oil prices sticks, it will most likely slow a growth rate that is already too sluggish to produce many jobs in this country. Some economists are predicting that oil prices, just above $97 a barrel on Thursday, could be sustained well above $100 a barrel, a benchmark. [and though it hasn’t begun yet, consider the benefits to Iran, Russia, Venezuela (just to name the obvious 3) who need mid $70 per barrel to be healthy and over $80 to be mischievous!!!!] [*]
Even if energy costs don’t rise higher, lingering uncertainty over the stability of the Middle East could drag down growth, not just in the United States but around the world.
“We’ve gone beyond responding to the sort of brutal Technicolor of the crisis in Libya,” said Daniel H. Yergin, the oil historian and chairman of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates. “There’s also a strong element of fear of what’s next, and what’s next after next.”
Before the outbreak of violence in Libya, the Federal Reserve had raised its forecast for United States growth in 2011, and a stronger stock market had helped consumers be more confident about the future and more willing to spend. [*]
But other sources of economic uncertainty besides oil prices have come into sharper focus in recent days. After a few false starts, housing prices have slid further. New-home sales dropped sharply in January, as did sales of big-ticket items like appliances, the government reported Thursday.
Though the initial panic from last year has faded, Europe’s deep debt problems remain, creating another wild card for the global economy. Protests turned violent in Greece this week in response to new austerity measures.
Budget and debt problems at all levels of American government also threaten to crimp the domestic recovery. Struggling state and local governments may dismiss more workers this year as many face their deepest shortfalls since the economic downturn began, and a Congressional stalemate over the country’s budget could even lead to a federal government shutdown.
“The irony is that we just barely got ourselves up and off the ground from the devastating financial crisis,” [*]said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, who had been optimistic about the country’s prospects. “The recovery itself is less than two years in, and we haven’t yet seen jobs make a decent comeback. Now we’re being hit with this new, very ominous event, so the timing couldn’t be worse.”
Most economists are not yet talking about the United States dipping back into recession, and it is too soon to tell how far the pro-democracy protests that have roiled Egypt, Bahrain and Libya will spread. For now, most analysts are not predicting that Iran and Saudi Arabia, repressive governments that also happen to be two of the world’s biggest oil producers, will catch the revolutionary fever.
“But revolutions are notoriously difficult to forecast,” said Chris Lafakas, an economist at Moody’s Analytics who focuses on energy. Disruptions of oil supplies in Saudi Arabia and Iran in particular, he said, “would be catastrophic for prices. Saudi Arabia alone could cause maybe a 20 to 25 percent increase in oil prices overnight.”
In the last week, oil prices have risen more than 10 percent and even breached $100 a barrel. A sustained $10 increase in oil prices would shave about two-tenths of a percentage point off economic growth, according to Dean Maki, chief United States economist at Barclays Capital. [*]The Federal Reserve had forecast last week that the United States economy would grow by 3.4 to 3.9 percent in 2011, up from 2.9 percent last year.
Higher oil prices restrain growth because they translate to higher fuel prices for consumers and businesses. Mr. Lafakas estimates that oil prices are on track to average $90 a barrel in 2011, from $80 in 2010, an increase that would offset nearly a quarter of the $120 billion payroll tax cut that Congress had intended to stimulate the economy this year.
Rising gasoline prices have already led Jayme Webb, an office manager at a recycling center in Sioux City, Iowa, and her husband, Ken, who works at Wal-Mart, to cut back on spending.
In the last month, they have canceled their satellite television subscription and their Internet service. They have also stopped driving from their home in rural Moville to Sioux City on weekends to see Ms. Webb’s parents.
Along with making their commutes to work more expensive, rising oil prices have driven up the cost of food for animals and people. So the couple have stopped buying feed for their dozen sheep and goats and six chickens and instead asked neighboring farmers to let them use scraps from their corn fields.
“It’s a struggle,” said Ms. Webb, 49. “We have to watch every little penny.”
A cutback in consumer spending reverberates through the economy by crimping businesses, making it less likely that employers will commit to the additional hiring needed to lower the 9 percent unemployment rate.
“Revenue is down, costs are up, and you can’t make any money,” said R. Jerol Kivett, the owner of Kivett’s Inc., a company that manufactures pews and other church furniture in Clinton, N.C. “You’re just trying to meet payroll and keep people working, hoping the economy will turn. But it just seems like setback after setback after setback.”
And the money that consumers and businesses spend on oil often does not stay within the American economy. Nor do the expanded coffers in oil-producing countries raise demand for American exports, because they often bank it as reserves.
“The countries that are getting this bonus basically get an enormous benefit,” said Raghuram G. Rajan, an economics professor at the University of Chicago. “But if they can’t spend it quickly, it doesn’t add to aggregate demand.”
The rise in oil prices could also create a vicious cycle, as higher energy costs propel already rising food prices, which in turn can lead to more political unrest and more global uncertainty.
Even without the Middle East, the domestic economy has a number of weaknesses that have proved hard to overcome. The recession was provoked by housing and worsened by housing, and housing is likely to remain frail in parts of the country until the end of the decade.
After a couple of brief growth spurts, home prices have started declining again in earnest.
This week, the Yale economist Robert Shiller speculated about another drop as large as 25 percent. Anything close to that would push millions more households to the point where they owe more on their houses than the houses are worth, generating a lot of sour moods — which can depress consumer spending — more foreclosures and potential job losses.
Even absent such a decline, lenders remain cautious, punishing those who never indulged during the boom.
Maria Schneider and Roger Westerman have plenty of equity in their Brooklyn home, and a 17-year record of paying on time. Last fall, the couple tried to capitalize on historically low mortgage rates and refinance.
They estimated they would save $360 a month. But their lender said they were a bad credit risk. The couple, both 48, are self-employed.
“We could be sending all three of our kids to camp this summer instead of just one,” Mrs. Schneider said.
There are some signs that the economy could weather this latest round of buffeting. Revenue at many companies is back to prerecession levels, said Scott Bohannon, a general manager at the Corporate Executive Board, a research and advisory firm. That suggests companies may start adding equipment, factories and, eventually, workers.
“Of course, if a war breaks out in a significant way or something like that happens,” he said, “then I would give you a different answer. Then you’re talking about huge shocks to the system.”

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:48 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/opinion/25alsaud.html
February 24, 2011
A Saudi Prince’s Plea for Reform
By ALWALEED BIN TALAL BIN ABDULAZIZ AL-SAUD
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia [oped] [Saudi Arabia] [on the recently announced reforms] [and what’s behind them] [use psci 355-455] [*]
THE toppling of the heads of state of Egypt and Tunisia on the heels of huge demonstrations there, and the subsequent manifestations of public unrest in Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, Libya, Morocco and Yemen, have generated a wide range of opinion on the root causes of those events. Some analysts see the protests as a natural outcome of the policies of autocratic regimes that had become oblivious to the need for fundamental political reform, while others view them as the inevitable product of dire economic and social problems that for decades have been afflicting much of the Arab world, most particularly its young.
In either case, unless many Arab governments adopt radically different policies, their

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/opinion/25alsaud.html
February 24, 2011
A Saudi Prince’s Plea for Reform
By ALWALEED BIN TALAL BIN ABDULAZIZ AL-SAUD
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia [oped] [Saudi Arabia] [on the recently announced reforms] [and what’s behind them] [use psci 355-455] [*]
THE toppling of the heads of state of Egypt and Tunisia on the heels of huge demonstrations there, and the subsequent manifestations of public unrest in Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, Libya, Morocco and Yemen, have generated a wide range of opinion on the root causes of those events. Some analysts see the protests as a natural outcome of the policies of autocratic regimes that had become oblivious to the need for fundamental political reform, while others view them as the inevitable product of dire economic and social problems that for decades have been afflicting much of the Arab world, most particularly its young.
In either case, unless many Arab governments adopt radically different policies, their countries will very likely experience more political and civil unrest. The facts are undeniable: [*]
The majority of the Arab population is under 25, and the unemployment rate for young adults is in most countries 20 percent or more. Unemployment is even higher among women, who are economically and socially marginalized. The middle classes are being pushed down by inflation, which makes a stable standard of living seem an unattainable hope. The gap between the haves and the have-nots is widening. The basic needs for housing, health care and education are not being met for millions. [*]
Moreover, Arab countries have been burdened by political systems that have become outmoded and brittle. Their leaderships are tied to patterns of governance that have become irrelevant and ineffective. Decision-making is invariably confined to small circles, with the outcomes largely intended to serve special and self-serving interests. Political participation is often denied, truncated and manipulated to ensure elections that perpetuate one-party rule.
Disheartening as this Arab condition may be, reforming it is neither impossible nor too late. Other societies that were afflicted with similar maladies have managed to restore themselves to health. But we can succeed only if we open our systems to greater political participation, accountability, increased transparency and the empowerment of women as well as youth. [*]The pressing issues of poverty, illiteracy, education and unemployment have to be fully addressed. Initiatives just announced in my country, Saudi Arabia, by King Abdullah are a step in the right direction, but they are only the beginning of a longer journey to broader participation, especially by the younger generation.
The lesson to be learned from the Tunisian, Egyptian and other upheavals — which, it is important to note, were not animated by anti-American fervor or by extremist Islamic zeal — is that Arab governments can no longer afford to take their populations for granted, or to assume that they will remain static and subdued. Nor can the soothing instruments of yesteryear, which were meant to appease, serve any longer as substitutes for meaningful reform. The winds of change are blowing across our region with force, and it would be folly to suppose that they will soon dissipate.
For any reform to be effective, however, it has to be the result of meaningful interaction and dialogue among the different components of a society, most particularly between the rulers and the ruled. It also has to encompass the younger generation, which in this technologically advanced age has become increasingly intertwined with its counterparts in other parts of the world.
Exclusion can no longer work. This admonishment was most forcefully and unabashedly expressed by no less a personage of an earlier generation than my father, Prince Talal bin Abdulaziz, in a recent television interview. [*]
Social and political change is invariably turbulent, painful and unpredictable. But the Arab world has an abundance of resources, natural and otherwise, that transcend oil. [and despite the spate of Realpolitik the last two days, no particular reason to believe some of these cases won’t turn out well over medium to long term?] [*] Most important, it has a substantial reservoir of talent that can be enlisted in the creation of a vibrant social and economic order that would enable Arab countries to join the ranks of those nations that have within a few decades propelled themselves out of underdevelopment, stagnation and poverty. But that can be achieved only if the will to reform is unwavering, enduring and sincere.
Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, a grandson of the founding king of modern Saudi Arabia, is the chairman of the Kingdom Holding Company and the Alwaleed bin Talal Foundations.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:47 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/opinion/25fri1.html
February 24, 2011
Stopping Qaddafi
[editorial] [on what Obama should do about Libya?] [USFP] [growing concern that Iran is the beneficiary] [use psci 355-455] [*]
Unless some way is found to stop him, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya will slaughter hundreds or even thousands of his own people in his desperation to hang on to power.
Libyans have shown extraordinary courage, and some members of the military may also be turning against the regime. We don’t know if they will be able to bring the dictator down by themselves. We are sure they need more support than they have been getting from the United States and other Western democracies. [*]
It took President Obama four days to condemn the violence. Even then, he spoke only vaguely about holding Libyan officials accountable for their crimes. Colonel Qaddafi was never mentioned by name.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/opinion/25fri1.html
February 24, 2011
Stopping Qaddafi
[editorial] [on what Obama should do about Libya?] [USFP] [growing concern that Iran is the beneficiary] [use psci 355-455] [*]
Unless some way is found to stop him, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya will slaughter hundreds or even thousands of his own people in his desperation to hang on to power.
Libyans have shown extraordinary courage, and some members of the military may also be turning against the regime. We don’t know if they will be able to bring the dictator down by themselves. We are sure they need more support than they have been getting from the United States and other Western democracies. [*]
It took President Obama four days to condemn the violence. Even then, he spoke only vaguely about holding Libyan officials accountable for their crimes. Colonel Qaddafi was never mentioned by name.
We understand Mr. Obama’s concern for the hundreds of Americans waiting to be evacuated from Tripoli. The Libyan government denied landing rights, and rough seas have prevented a ferry from leaving. [it’s not just Americans’ safety] [it’s concern that Iran is becoming increasingly powerful regional leader] [**]
Administration officials insist they are working hard to find ways to stop the killing. On Thursday, Mr. Obama spoke with President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain and Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi of Italy to plot a joint strategy.
There is not a lot of time. Colonel Qaddafi and his henchmen have to be told in credible and very specific terms the price they will pay for any more killing. They need to start paying right now.
It would be best if the United Nations Security Council imposed sanctions, but that takes too long. Washington and Europe can immediately freeze Libyan assets in American and European banks and work to block Libya’s access to the international financial system. Europe and the United States can deny travel visas to top Libyan officials and government supporters. [*]
Europe, which sells weapons to Libya, can impose an arms embargo. Washington has other quieter ways to pressure the government, including jamming military communications. [*]It should do so. Libya, which has just emerged from years of isolation, needs to be constantly reminded that it can be fully isolated again. The Security Council has deplored Colonel Qaddafi’s actions, and the Arab League suspended Libya’s participation. When it meets on Friday, the United Nations Human Rights Council should expel Libya. [we’ll see] [*]
Libya is a major supplier of oil to France and Italy, and for years both countries have enabled Colonel Qaddafi. Mr. Sarkozy now wants the European Union to impose an arms embargo on Libya, as well as an assets freeze and travel ban for the Libyan leader and his collaborators. Germany seems inclined to go along. Britain and Italy should stop temporizing.
If the killing goes on, other steps may be quickly needed, including offering temporary sanctuary for refugees and imposing the kind of no-fly zone that the United States, Britain and France used to protect Kurds in Iraq from the savagery of Saddam Hussein. After Bosnia, Kosovo and Rwanda, the United States and its allies vowed that they would work harder to stop mass atrocities. One thing is not in doubt: The longer the world temporizes, the more people die.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:46 AM | Permalink

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/africa/26libya.html
February 25, 2011
U.N. to Meet on Sanctions for Libya as Revolt Deepens
By KAREEM FAHIM and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK [UN] [the bloodbath in Libya demonstrates the UN impotence] [but some activity is ongoing] [UN must make clear to Qaddafi regime that its leaders will not get out form under sanctions while he’s alive] [followup] [*]
BENGHAZI, Libya — Gunfire was reported during protests by thousands of people in Tripoli, even as international efforts to stem the bloodshed in Libya appeared to gain momentum on Friday, with the United Nations Security Council scheduled to meet to discuss a draft proposal for sanctions against Libyan leaders.
In at least three neighborhoods of the capital, gunfire was reported after worshippers left Friday prayers in the early afternoon, with security forces acting either to disperse protesters gathering to march on the streets, or to deliberately target them. Some witnesses, in telephone interviews with news services, said that several people had been wounded and killed. With access to journalists limited, it was impossible to independently verify these reports.
Security personnel had deployed around mosques to prevent demonstrations after

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/africa/26libya.html
February 25, 2011
U.N. to Meet on Sanctions for Libya as Revolt Deepens
By KAREEM FAHIM and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK [UN] [the bloodbath in Libya demonstrates the UN impotence] [but some activity is ongoing] [UN must make clear to Qaddafi regime that its leaders will not get out form under sanctions while he’s alive] [followup] [*]
BENGHAZI, Libya — Gunfire was reported during protests by thousands of people in Tripoli, even as international efforts to stem the bloodshed in Libya appeared to gain momentum on Friday, with the United Nations Security Council scheduled to meet to discuss a draft proposal for sanctions against Libyan leaders.
In at least three neighborhoods of the capital, gunfire was reported after worshippers left Friday prayers in the early afternoon, with security forces acting either to disperse protesters gathering to march on the streets, or to deliberately target them. Some witnesses, in telephone interviews with news services, said that several people had been wounded and killed. With access to journalists limited, it was impossible to independently verify these reports.
Security personnel had deployed around mosques to prevent demonstrations after the main weekly Muslim prayers, witnesses said. In their sermons, prayer leaders followed a text that had been imposed by the authorities calling for a "return to stability" and an end to "sedition" and "acts of sabotage," worshippers quoted by news services said.
Antigovernment demonstrators had pledged to take to the streets of the capital on Friday despite threats of a violent crackdown by pro-government mercenaries and security forces, as Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi attempted to reinforce the city that remains one of his last strongholds in a widespread rebellion. [*]
With the eastern half of the country now under control of opposition forces, rebels seeking to overturn Colonel Qaddafi repelled a concerted assault by his forces on Thursday on cities close to the capital, removing any doubt that Libya’s patchwork of protests had evolved into an increasingly well-armed revolutionary movement. [*]
The series of determined stands by rebel forces on Thursday — especially in the strategic city of Zawiyah, near important oil resources and 30 miles from the capital, Tripoli — presented the gravest threat yet to the Libyan leader. In Zawiyah, more than 100 people were killed as Colonel Qaddafi’s forces turned automatic weapons on a mosque filled with protesters, a witness said. Still, residents rallied afterward.
Colonel Qaddafi’s evident frustration at the resistance in Zawiyah spilled out in a rant by telephone over the state television network charging that Osama bin Laden had drugged the town’s youth into a rebellious frenzy.
“Al Qaeda is the one who has recruited our sons,” he said in a 30-minute tirade broadcast by the network. “It is bin Laden.”
Colonel Qaddafi said, “Those people who took your sons away from you and gave them drugs and said ‘Let them die’ are launching a campaign over cellphones against your sons, telling them not to obey their fathers and mothers.”
With the threat of a brutal crackdown looming, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the NATO secretary general, said he had called an emergency meeting for Friday afternoon in Brussels to discuss the situation in Libya. Humanitarian assistance and the evacuation of foreign nations would be the priority, he said.
In New York, the United Nations Security Council was scheduled to meet Friday afternoon to discuss a proposal backed by France and Britain for sanctions against Libyan leaders, including a possible arms embargo and financial sanctions, though no definitive action was expected until next week.
The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, has also said the bloc should consider sanctions such as travel restrictions and an asset freeze against Libya to try to halt to the violence there. Britain and Switzerland have already announced freezes on Colonel Qaddafi’s in country assets.
The violence on Thursday underscored the contrast between the character of Libya’s revolution and the uprising that toppled autocrats in neighboring Egypt and Tunisia. Unlike those Facebook-enabled youth rebellions, the insurrection has been led by people who are more mature and who have been actively opposing the government for some time. It started with lawyers’ syndicates that have campaigned peacefully for two years for a written constitution and some semblance of a rule of law. [*]
Fueled by popular anger, the help of breakaway leaders of the armed forces and some of their troops, and weapons from looted military stockpiles or smuggled across the border, the uprising here has escalated toward more violence in the face of increasingly brutal government crackdowns.
At the revolt’s starting point, in the eastern city of Benghazi, Fathi Terbil, 39, the human rights lawyer whose detention first ignited the protests, drew a map of rebel-held territory in striking distance of Tripoli. “It is only a matter of days,” he said.
A turning point in the uprising’s evolution was arguably the defection of the interior minister, Abdel Fattah Younes al-Abidi, an army general who had been a close ally of Colonel Qaddafi.
The break by General Abidi, who has family roots near the revolt’s eastern origins, encouraged other disaffected police, military and state security personnel to change sides as well. “We are hoping to use his experience,” said Mr. Terbil, who some called the linchpin of the revolt.
Opposition figures in rebel-held cities like Benghazi have been appearing on cable news channels promising that opponents of Colonel Qaddafi are heading toward Tripoli to bolster the resistance there. Their ability to carry out those assertions remains to be seen.
In parts of the country, the revolutionaries, as they call themselves, appear to have access to potentially large stores of weapons, including small arms and heavy artillery, automatic weapons smuggled from the Egyptian border and rocket-propelled grenades taken from army bases, like the Kabila in Benghazi.
Tawfik al-Shohiby, one of the rebels, said that in the early days of the revolt one of his relatives bought $75,000 in automatic weapons from arms dealers on the Egyptian border and distributed them to citizens’ groups in towns like Bayda.
So far, at least in the east, many of the weapons appear to be held in storage to defend against a future attempt by Colonel Qaddafi’s forces to retake the territory. At a former security services building in Benghazi on Thursday, men in fatigues prepared to transport anti-aircraft and antitank weapons to what one said was a storage depot.
Like their counterparts in Tunisia and Egypt, the rebels in Libya have shown tech-savvy guile in circumventing government efforts to block their communication. To sidestep the government’s blocking of the Internet and curbing of cellphone access, for example, some of the more active antigovernment protesters distribute flash drives and CDs with videos of the fighting to friends in other towns and to journalists.
Mr. Shohiby began helping lead an effort this week to shuttle foreign journalists from the Egyptian border to towns across eastern Libya.
His network of contacts was built on the Internet: not on Facebook, but on a popular soccer Web site. “I have friends from east to west, north to south,” he said. “There are two guys in Sabha, one in Zawiyah, three friends in Misurata, for example,” he said, speaking of towns that were the scenes of some of the clashes on Thursday.
Still, Mohammed Ali Abdallah, deputy secretary general of an opposition group in exile, The National Front for the Salvation of Libya, said the government’s fierce crackdown made organizing the spontaneous uprising a continuing challenge, especially in heavily guarded Tripoli.
“It is almost like hit and runs,” he said. “There are almost no ways that those young guys can organize themselves. You can’t talk on a mobile phone, and if five people get together in the street they get shot.”
Nonetheless, protesters in Tripoli were calling for a massive demonstration on Friday after noon prayers, residents of the city and those fleeing the country said. In recent days, witnesses said, Colonel Qaddafi appears to have pulled many of his militiamen and mercenaries back toward the capital to prepare for its defense.
But despite the encroaching insurrection, Colonel Qaddafi appeared determined on Thursday to put on a show of strength and national unity, a stark turnabout from his approach so far.
Since the start of the uprising, his government had shut out all foreign journalists, cut off communications and even confiscated mobile phone chips, and other devices that might contain pictures, at the border from people fleeing the country. Libya had warned that reporters who entered the country illegally risked arrest and could be deemed collaborators of Al Qaeda.
But on Thursday, Colonel Qaddafi’s son and heir apparent Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi announced on television that the government would allow teams of journalists to visit Tripoli. [he’s shrewd] [he sees the potential for him to come in as compromise leader (between chaos and his father] [so he’s doing PR] [*] Witnesses said preparations for the visit were already under way.
The soldiers and mercenaries who had previously roamed the streets had largely disappeared by the late afternoon, leaving only traffic police officers, and the capital’s central Green Square — the scene of violent clashes earlier this week — had been cleaned up. Two banners, in English, now adorned the square. “Al Jazeera, BBC, don’t spread lies that reflect other’s wishful thinking,” one read. The other: “Family members talk but never fight between each other.”
But the rebels’ unexpected strength was undeniable on Thursday as they appeared to hold or contest several towns close to Colonel Qaddafi’s stronghold in Tripoli in the face of a coordinated push by his mercenaries and security forces. [*]
In Misurata, 130 miles the east of the capital, Colonel Qaddafi’s forces struck at rebels guarding the airport with rocket-propelled grenades and mortar shells, The Associated Press reported. But the rebels seized an anti-aircraft gun used by the militias and turned it against them.
In Zuwarah, 75 miles west of the capital, the police and security forces had pulled out and a “people’s committee” was controlling the city, several people who had fled across the border reported. “The people are taking care of their own business,” said Basem Shams, 26, a fisherman.
In Sabratha, 50 miles west of the capital, witnesses reported that the police headquarters and offices of Colonel Qaddafi’s revolutionary committees were all in smoldering ruins. “We are not afraid; we are watching,” said a doctor by telephone from Sabratha. “What I am sure about, is that change is coming.”
In Zawiyah, an envoy from Colonel Qaddafi had reportedly arrived to warn rebels on Wednesday: “Either leave or you will see a massacre,” one resident told The A.P.
About 5 a.m. Thursday, Colonel Qaddafi’s forces fulfilled their threat. Witnesses said a force that included about 60 foreign mercenaries assaulted a central mosque where some of the roughly 2,000 protesters had sought refuge. One witness said the protesters were armed mainly with rifles, sticks and knives, but after four hours of fighting they managed to hold the square. [*]
About 100 people were killed and 200 were wounded, this witness said. [*]During a telephone interview with him, a voice could be heard over a loudspeaker in the background telling the crowd, in an area known as Martyrs Square, not to be afraid.
“People came to send a clear message: We are not afraid of death or your bullets,” one resident told The A.P. “This regime will regret it. History will not forgive them.”
Meanwhile, the violence sowed concern across the region and beyond. President Obama spoke Thursday, in separate calls, with President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and the prime ministers of Britain and Italy, David Cameron and Silvio Berlusconi. [*]
The White House said the leaders expressed “deep concern” over the Libyan government’s use of force and discussed possible responses, without specifying what steps they were prepared to take.
Kareem Fahim reported from Benghazi, and David D. Kirkpatrick from the Tunisian border with Libya. Reporting was contributed by Sharon Otterman, Mona El-Naggar and Neil MacFarquhar from Cairo, and Robert F. Worth from Tunis.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:11 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/asia/25briefs-Uighur.html
February 24, 2011
China: Uighur Groups Criticize Death Sentences
By EDWARD WONG [China] [PRC] [China’s domestic governance] [China’s growing pains vis-à-vis Western modernity, rule of law, basic rights for Chinese peoples, so forth] [use psci 350] [slow democratization] [followup] [security that China has installed in Xinjiang???] [Uighurs and other non-Han ethnicity are angry and resentful—they are stewing!] [Uighur sentenced to life for subversion to do with the violence between Han and Uighur in 2009] [but there’s been other rounds] [followup, December 24, 2010] [*]
Uighur advocacy groups have criticized the recent death sentences of four men who are all apparently ethnic Uighurs. The men were reportedly sentenced for three separate incidents of violence last year. They are Turhun Turdi, Abdulla Tunyaz, Ahunniyaz Nur, and Abdukerim Abdurahman. The report of the sentencing first appeared on Wednesday in Xinjiang Daily, an official newspaper published out of Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang, a vast region in western China where Uighurs, the largest ethnic group there, chafe against policies set by the ethnic Han, who rule China.
Two of the men were convicted in connection with an explosion that killed at least seven people last year in Aksu. “By sentencing these four Uighurs to death, China is attempting to intimidate the Uighur people, fearing that they will take to the streets to demand human rights, democracy and freedoms from the authoritarian Chinese government,” [*]Rebiya Kadeer, a leader of Uighur exiles, said in a written statement late Wednesday.

[full piece may be found above the jump] [*]

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:10 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/middleeast/25ramallah.html
February 24, 2011
Young Seek to End West Bank and Gaza Schism
By ISABEL KERSHNER [Palestine] [domestic] [Gaza (Hamas)] [Palestinian strategy in contest with Israel] [domestic politics intersects foreign policy] [the ongoing process between Fatah, on one hand, and Hamas on the other] [followup] [Palestinian groups closing ranks over Egypt!] [clearly, effects of Jasmine Revolution are occurring to various groups?] [*]
RAMALLAH, West Bank — Young Palestinians watching the revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere in the region have no shortage of their own protest-worthy causes.
There is the 43-year Israeli occupation; frustration with the entrenched and aging leadership of the Palestine Liberation Organization; lack of freedoms under the competing Palestinian authorities in the West Bank and Gaza; and more recently, anger over last Friday’s American veto of a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning Israeli settlement activity as illegal, a move that they said showed the “double standard” of the United States. [*]
But in recent days, Palestinian students and youth activists have been finding a

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/middleeast/25ramallah.html
February 24, 2011
Young Seek to End West Bank and Gaza Schism
By ISABEL KERSHNER [Palestine] [domestic] [Gaza (Hamas)] [Palestinian strategy in contest with Israel] [domestic politics intersects foreign policy] [the ongoing process between Fatah, on one hand, and Hamas on the other] [followup] [Palestinian groups closing ranks over Egypt!] [clearly, effects of Jasmine Revolution are occurring to various groups?] [*]
RAMALLAH, West Bank — Young Palestinians watching the revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere in the region have no shortage of their own protest-worthy causes.
There is the 43-year Israeli occupation; frustration with the entrenched and aging leadership of the Palestine Liberation Organization; lack of freedoms under the competing Palestinian authorities in the West Bank and Gaza; and more recently, anger over last Friday’s American veto of a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning Israeli settlement activity as illegal, a move that they said showed the “double standard” of the United States. [*]
But in recent days, Palestinian students and youth activists have been finding a voice and a focus, coalescing around a single popular issue that they believe will help the Palestinians in all of the above: ending the schism between the West Bank, where the mainstream, secularist Fatah dominates the Palestinian Authority, and Gaza, which is under the control of Fatah’s rival, the Islamic militant group Hamas. [*]
“This split weakens us,” said Hatem Abdul Rahim, 26, from Nablus, who volunteers for Sharek, an independent Palestinian youth organization with headquarters in Ramallah and Gaza. “It leaves the door open for the occupiers to do whatever they want.”
Sharek, which provides youth activities and programs, organized its first protest against the split and for national unity in mid-February in Ramallah. At the time, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas were both preventing demonstrations in support of the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia because they worried about being seen as taking sides in Middle East disputes and about the protests’ spilling out of control. [*]But national unity is a consensus issue among Palestinians, and one to which the rival leaderships say that they subscribe.
This seemed like an appropriate time to present new positions, said Hazem Abu Helal, 27, a youth activist at Sharek, in an interview, because “the dictatorships surrounding us were the reason for the situation we are in now.” [just as I have recently noted that Israel needs to be prepared to seize opportunities, the same goes for Palestinian side of the conflict] [when they are split they are easier to ignore] [**]
Sharek held a news conference this week in Ramallah to present a youth manifesto, adopting the slogan, “The people want an end of the schism,” an adaptation of one resounding across the Middle East, “The people want an end of the regime.”
The rivalry between Fatah and Hamas worsened after the Islamic group won parliamentary elections in 2006 in the West Bank and Gaza, which are separated geographically by Israeli territory. A year later, after months of factional fighting, Hamas seized full control of Gaza, routing forces loyal to Fatah and compounding the divide.
Repeated Egyptian-brokered efforts at reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah have failed. But the renewed call for unity, spearheaded by the young people, seems to be catching on. [it’s not just different visions] [they’ve killed each other and tortured each other for years] [*]
On Thursday, hundreds of Palestinians converged on Manara Square in Ramallah for a peaceful rally for national unity. In an unusual gesture, the diverse political groups that were participating put aside their own symbols and all marched under the Palestinian flag.
“Ending the division has become more urgent because of the American veto,” Suheil Khader, a Palestinian union official, said at the demonstration. “We would rather be hungry than pay with our dignity.” [do you really think the US is going to throw Israel under the buss?] [certainly not when Hamastan and Fatahstine exist] [*]
Demonstrations against the veto and for national reconciliation have spread to other parts of the West Bank. And given the demand in the region for more government accountability, leaders in both the West Bank and Gaza have appeared eager to respond.
In the past few days, Palestinian officials have started talking about new efforts for unification. Ismail Radwan, a Hamas official in Gaza, said that his movement was consulting with national groups to find a new basis for national reconciliation. Nabil Shaath, a member of the Fatah Central Committee, said he was in contact with Hamas figures and would be heading to Gaza soon.
Salam Fayyad, the Palestinian Authority prime minister, is floating the idea of forming a new unity government including Hamas, which could pave the way for national elections and for a more comprehensive reconciliation agreement.
If Hamas was committed to maintaining a cease-fire with Israel, it could retain its security control in Gaza and share in the other, practical functions of government, according to Ghassan Khatib, spokesman for the government in the West Bank. [they might just as well be creative] [and the Israelis might just as well be creative] [potentially new approached] [*]
Yasser Abed Rabbo, a senior Palestinian official and aide to the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, spoke positively of the youth initiatives for national reconciliation in an interview with the official Voice of Palestine radio on Wednesday. “We also support and encourage them,” he said, “as they represent the Palestinian people’s will.”
Any genuine reconciliation, which still may be a long way off, would further complicate the prospect of peace with Israel. But the Palestinians suspended short-lived negotiations last September after Israel refused to renew a moratorium on construction in West Bank Jewish settlements.
As Mr. Khatib put it, “Do you see any negotiations that we should be worried about?”
Among the jumble of grievances, the youth activists complain of oppression. Mr. Abu Helal noted that youths who had called on Facebook for protests in solidarity with the Arab revolutions were summoned for questioning and said that his organization had been dealt with harshly by the security forces in both Gaza, where it is currently banned, and in the West Bank.
But many Palestinians in the West Bank seem generally satisfied with Mr. Abbas’s administration, which has restored law and order after years of chaos.
Mr. Abbas called for elections by September but Hamas immediately rejected the idea. [permanent stalemate intra Palestinian hurts all Palestinians] [*] Mr. Abbas now says that they can take place only if they can be held in the West Bank and Gaza at the same time.
Unlike some regional despots who have ruled for decades, Mr. Abbas is not an autocrat and has been the president only since 2005. He has said that he is not keen to run for another term, and he has on occasion threatened to quit.
“Abbas and Fayyad are very good for us,” said Muhammad Abu Ghazaleh, the owner of a jeans store in Ramallah. “They gave us security.” [*]
As for ending the split with Gaza, he said, “Of course, all Palestinians want that.”

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:09 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/middleeast/26unrest.html
February 25, 2011
Hundreds of Thousands Protest Across the Mideast
By SHARON OTTERMAN and J. DAVID GOODMAN [Arabia] [democratization] [Abdullah continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Jamine spreading while growing concern among some of Iran benefitting from the turmoil?] [use psci 355-455, 469] [*]
CAIRO — Hundreds of thousands of protesters turned out in cities across the Middle East on Friday to protest the unaccountability of their leaders and express solidarity with the uprising in Libya that Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi is trying to suppress with force.
In Iraq, demonstrations for better government services spiraled out of control in many places. Protesters burned buildings and security forces fired on crowds in Baghdad, Mosul, Ramadi and in Salahuddin Province, north of the capital, killing at least four people.
Large-scale demonstrations in Yemen appeared to proceed more peacefully, even festively. More than 100,000 people poured into the streets on Friday, after Yemen’s

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/26/world/middleeast/26unrest.html
February 25, 2011
Hundreds of Thousands Protest Across the Mideast
By SHARON OTTERMAN and J. DAVID GOODMAN [Arabia] [democratization] [Abdullah continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Jamine spreading while growing concern among some of Iran benefitting from the turmoil?] [use psci 355-455, 469] [*]
CAIRO — Hundreds of thousands of protesters turned out in cities across the Middle East on Friday to protest the unaccountability of their leaders and express solidarity with the uprising in Libya that Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi is trying to suppress with force.
In Iraq, demonstrations for better government services spiraled out of control in many places. Protesters burned buildings and security forces fired on crowds in Baghdad, Mosul, Ramadi and in Salahuddin Province, north of the capital, killing at least four people.
Large-scale demonstrations in Yemen appeared to proceed more peacefully, even festively. More than 100,000 people poured into the streets on Friday, after Yemen’s embattled president pledged on Wednesday not to crack down on protesters.
In Egypt, tens of thousands of people returned to Tahrir Square in central Cairo to celebrate one full month since the start of the popular revolution that toppled President Hosni Mubarak.
In Bahrain, pro-democracy demonstrations on a scale that appeared to dwarf the largest ever seen in the tiny Persian Gulf nation blocked miles of downtown roads and highways in Manama, the capital, on Friday. The crowds overflowed from Pearl Square in the center of the city for the second time in a week.
In a shift from Tuesday, when antigovernment protesters brought more than 100,000 people to Pearl Square, on Friday it was the country’s Shiite religious leaders who called for people to take to the streets. That development could change the dynamic in Bahrain, where Shiites are the majority but the rulers belong to the Sunni minority.
“We are winners, and victory comes from God,” protesters chanted in Manama.
A small number of black flags — a Shiite mourning symbol — could be seen for the first time in the vast sea of red and white, the colors of Bahrain. Crowds stretched two miles to the Bahrain Mall, east of Pearl Square, and about another two miles southwest of the square to the Salmaniya Medical Complex.
Throughout the unrest that has gripped the region for more than a month, protest organizers have mounted their largest demonstrations on Fridays, when most people are off work and the day is punctuated by an important Muslim prayer service at noon.
The violence in Iraq came after demonstrators responded to a call for a “day of rage,” despite attempts by the government to keep people from taking to the streets. Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki made a televised speech on Thursday urging Iraqis not to gather, and security officials in Baghdad banned all cars from the streets until further notice. . [sic] [*]
As protesters took to the streets around the region, many kept their eyes on Libya, where the government has been waging a brutal crackdown against protesters, whose efforts over the past week have developed into a full-scale rebellion. Much of the east of the country is now in the hands of antigovernment rebels and clashes continue in the west. In Tripoli, which is under the control of mercenaries and militias as Colonel Qaddafi’s attempts to preserve the capital, protesters pledged to brave threats of violence to take to the streets.
Opposition leaders had also pledged to march to Tripoli from other cities, though the roads were reported to be thick with checkpoints and heavily armed forces that remain loyal to Colonel Qaddafi’s 40-year rule. But tens of thousands did turn out in Benghazi, the eastern city where the Libyan rebellion started over a week ago, and which is now in control of the opposition.
In Yemen, where protesters have faced sporadic violence from security forces and government supporters, roughly 100,000 people massed in the southern city of Taiz for demonstrations dubbed “Martyrs’ Friday,” in honor of two protesters who died in a grenade attack last week. [that’s a lot of Yemen] [*]
While weeks protests in the capital, Sana, have been tense, with repeated clashes between pro and antigovernment forces, the demonstration in Taiz, the intellectual hub of the country, took on a hopeful, exhilarated feel. Along with the youth who organized the protests on Facebook, older residents of the countryside flowed into the area of the town that protesters have dubbed Freedom Square.
"There are no parties, our revolution is a youth revolution,” read one banner. In emulation of Egypt’s Tahrir Square, the center of the protest zone in Taiz was filled with some 100 tents, where people had spent the night for more than a week, and there were national flags and large signs.
A cleric delivered a morning speech, reminding the people that the revolution was not against a single person but against oppression itself. And as noon prayers ended, the people broke out into the roaring chant that has now become familiar around the Arab world: “The people want to topple the regime.”
At the same time in the capital, tens of thousands of people were pouring into a square near the main gates of Sana University to call for the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh amid a tight security presence, The Associated Press reported.
In Cairo, tens of thousands of Egyptians flooded Tahrir Square as much to renew the spirit of Egypt’s popular revolution, which resulted in Mr. Mubarak’s resignation on Feb. 11, as to press for new demands. The square felt like a carnival, filled with banners in Egypt’s national colors of black, white and red. Vendors sold cheese and bean sandwiches and popcorn, a man fried liver on a portable grill, and others sold revolutionary souvenirs, like miniature flags, stuffed animals, and stickers for sale.
The utopian spirit of the revolution, which had included people from all aspects of Egyptian society, was still evident, as secular leftists, members of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, and women wearing full Islamic veils with children on their arms circulated through the crowd. Ismael Abdul Latif, 27, a writer, chatted with the religious women, only their eyes showing, as they drew revolutionary posters. [how long does anyone expect that to last?] [*]
“I never dreamed in my wildest dreams that we would be talking to a munaqaba”— as women in full veils are called — “in Tahrir Square,” he said. “A secular artist is having a political debate with a fully veiled lady and having a meaningful conversation. What’s the world coming to?”
But there were also signs of tension, as well as reminder that it was the military that ultimately remains in charge. Several hours into the demonstration, an army officer demanded that protesters dismantle the tents they were erecting in the center of the square, touching off a series of angry arguments.
There were fervent political demands as well, foremost among them, the resignation of the cabinet that Mr. Mubarak had appointed before his downfall, as well as the dismantling of the security apparatus, the release of prisoners still held under Egypt’s repressive emergency laws, and the prosecution of former leaders guilty of corruption.
George Ishaq, one of the founders of Kifaya, an early protest movement here, led chants through speakers, saying, “Our demand today is a presidential council in which civilians will take part. We want it to be one politician one judge, and one representative of the armed forces.”
“We are not leaving, he’s leaving,” the crowd chanted, referring this time to Ahmed Shafiq, the prime minister, with the slogan that had foretold Mr. Mubarak’s fall. “Mubarak left the palace, but Shafiq still governs Egypt.”
Sharon Otterman reported from Cairo and J. David Goodman from New York. Michael Slackman contributed reporting from Manama, Bahrain; Jack Healy, Michael S. Schmidt and Duraid Adnan from Baghdad; and Liam Stack from Cairo.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:08 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/middleeast/25briefs-Syria.html
February 24, 2011
Syria: Iranian Warships Arrive With ‘Message of Peace’
By REUTERS [Iran] [Iran is where all this really started back in 2009] [Iran’s thugocracy has kept lid on so far] [not only that but used the events to move Iran warships through Suez (first time since 1979)] [followup] [now with ships’ arrival in Syria, a poke in the West’s and Israel’s respective eyes] [*]
Two Iranian warships have docked in Syria, a military commander said Thursday. The ships arrived Wednesday after passing through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, the first Iranian Navy vessels to do so since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. [*]Iran’s navy commander, Rear Adm. Habibollah Sayyari, told reporters the ships were not performing military exercises but were “on a routine and friendly visit and carry the message of peace and friendship to world countries.” In Israel, Defense Minister Ehud Barak called it “a provocation,” but told CNN, [*]“I don’t think that any one of us should be worried by it.”

[full piece may be found above the jump] [*]

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:07 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/africa/25libya.html
February 24, 2011
Libyan Rebels Repel Qaddafi’s Forces Near Tripoli
By KAREEM FAHIM and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [*]
BENGHAZI, Libya — Rebels seeking to overturn the 40-year rule of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi repelled a concerted assault by his forces on Thursday on cities close to the capital, removing any doubt that Libya’s patchwork of protests had evolved into an increasingly well-armed revolutionary movement.
The series of determined stands by rebel forces on Thursday — especially in the strategic city of Zawiyah, near important oil resources and 30 miles from the capital, Tripoli — presented the gravest threat yet to the Libyan leader. [*]In Zawiyah, more than 100 people were killed as Colonel Qaddafi’s forces turned automatic weapons on a mosque filled with protesters, a witness said. Still, residents rallied afterward.
Colonel Qaddafi’s evident frustration at the resistance in Zawiyah spilled out in a rant by telephone over the state television network charging that Osama bin Laden had drugged the town’s youth into a rebellious frenzy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/africa/25libya.html
February 24, 2011
Libyan Rebels Repel Qaddafi’s Forces Near Tripoli
By KAREEM FAHIM and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly more than 1,000 have been killed] [growing concern Qaddafi will use biological-chemical WMD?] [*]
BENGHAZI, Libya — Rebels seeking to overturn the 40-year rule of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi repelled a concerted assault by his forces on Thursday on cities close to the capital, removing any doubt that Libya’s patchwork of protests had evolved into an increasingly well-armed revolutionary movement.
The series of determined stands by rebel forces on Thursday — especially in the strategic city of Zawiyah, near important oil resources and 30 miles from the capital, Tripoli — presented the gravest threat yet to the Libyan leader. [*]In Zawiyah, more than 100 people were killed as Colonel Qaddafi’s forces turned automatic weapons on a mosque filled with protesters, a witness said. Still, residents rallied afterward.
Colonel Qaddafi’s evident frustration at the resistance in Zawiyah spilled out in a rant by telephone over the state television network charging that Osama bin Laden had drugged the town’s youth into a rebellious frenzy.
“Al Qaeda is the one who has recruited our sons,” he said in a 30-minute tirade broadcast by the network. “It is bin Laden.”
Colonel Qaddafi said, “Those people who took your sons away from you and gave them drugs and said ‘Let them die’ are launching a campaign over cellphones against your sons, telling them not to obey their fathers and mothers.” [*]
The violence on Thursday underscored the contrast between the character of Libya’s revolution and the uprising that toppled autocrats in neighboring Egypt and Tunisia. [*] Unlike those Facebook-enabled youth rebellions, the insurrection here has been led by people who are more mature and who have been actively opposing the government for some time. It started with lawyers’ syndicates that have campaigned peacefully for two years for a written constitution and some semblance of a rule of law.
Fueled by popular anger, the help of breakaway leaders of the armed forces and some of their troops, and weapons from looted military stockpiles or smuggled across the border, the uprising here has escalated toward more violence in the face of increasingly brutal government crackdowns.
At the revolt’s starting point, in the eastern city of Benghazi, Fathi Terbil, 39, the human rights lawyer whose detention first ignited the protests, drew a map of rebel-held territory in striking distance of Tripoli. “It is only a matter of days,” he said.
A turning point in the uprising’s evolution was arguably the defection of the interior minister, Abdel Fattah Younes al-Abidi, an army general who had been a close ally of Colonel Qaddafi. [also some generals, part of Libya’s mission to UN, others] [world opprobrium] [*]
The break by General Abidi, who has family roots near the revolt’s eastern origins, encouraged other disaffected police, military and state security personnel to change sides as well. “We are hoping to use his experience,” said Mr. Terbil, who some called the linchpin of the revolt.
Opposition figures in rebel-held cities like Benghazi have been appearing on cable news channels promising that opponents of Colonel Qaddafi are heading toward Tripoli to bolster the resistance there. Their ability to carry out those assertions remains to be seen.
In parts of the country, the revolutionaries, as they call themselves, appear to have access to potentially large stores of weapons, including small arms and heavy artillery, automatic weapons smuggled from the Egyptian border and rocket-propelled grenades taken from army bases, like the Kabila in Benghazi. [*]
Tawfik al-Shohiby, one of the rebels, said that in the early days of the revolt one of his relatives bought $75,000 in automatic weapons from arms dealers on the Egyptian border and distributed them to citizens’ groups in towns like Bayda.
So far, at least in the east, many of the weapons appear to be held in storage to defend against a future attempt by Colonel Qaddafi’s forces to retake the territory. At a former security services building in Benghazi on Thursday, men in fatigues prepared to transport anti-aircraft and antitank weapons to what one said was a storage depot.
Like their counterparts in Tunisia and Egypt, the rebels in Libya have shown tech-savvy guile in circumventing government efforts to block their communication. To sidestep the government’s blocking of the Internet and curbing of cellphone access, for example, some of the more active antigovernment protesters distribute flash drives and CDs with videos of the fighting to friends in other towns and to journalists.
Mr. Shohiby began helping lead an effort this week to shuttle foreign journalists from the Egyptian border to towns across eastern Libya. [*]
His network of contacts was built on the Internet: not on Facebook, but on a popular soccer Web site. “I have friends from east to west, north to south,” he said. “There are two guys in Sabha, one in Zawiyah, three friends in Misurata, for example,” he said, speaking of towns that were the scenes of some of the clashes on Thursday.
Still, Mohammed Ali Abdallah, deputy secretary general of an opposition group in exile, The National Front for the Salvation of Libya, said the government’s fierce crackdown made organizing the spontaneous uprising a continuing challenge, especially in heavily guarded Tripoli.
“It is almost like hit and runs,” he said. “There are almost no ways that those young guys can organize themselves. You can’t talk on a mobile phone, and if five people get together in the street they get shot.”
Nonetheless, protesters in Tripoli were calling for a massive demonstration on Friday after noon prayers, residents of the city and those fleeing the country said. In recent days, witnesses said, Colonel Qaddafi appears to have pulled many of his militiamen and mercenaries back toward the capital to prepare for its defense.
But despite the encroaching insurrection, Colonel Qaddafi appeared determined on Thursday to put on a show of strength and national unity, a stark turnabout from his approach so far.
Since the start of the uprising, his government had shut out all foreign journalists, cut off communications and even confiscated mobile phone chips, and other devices that might contain pictures, at the border from people fleeing the country. Libya had warned that reporters who entered the country illegally risked arrest and could be deemed collaborators of Al Qaeda.
But on Thursday, Colonel Qaddafi’s son and heir apparent Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi announced on television that the government would allow teams of journalists to visit Tripoli. Witnesses said preparations for the visit were already under way. [*]
The soldiers and mercenaries who had previously roamed the streets had largely disappeared by the late afternoon, leaving only traffic police officers, and the capital’s central Green Square — the scene of violent clashes earlier this week — had been cleaned up. Two banners, in English, now adorned the square. “Al Jazeera, BBC, don’t spread lies that reflect other’s wishful thinking,” one read. The other: “Family members talk but never fight between each other.”
But the rebels’ unexpected strength was undeniable on Thursday as they appeared to hold or contest several towns close to Colonel Qaddafi’s stronghold in Tripoli in the face of a coordinated push by his mercenaries and security forces.
In Misurata, 130 miles the east of the capital, Colonel Qaddafi’s forces struck at rebels guarding the airport with rocket-propelled grenades and mortar shells, The Associated Press reported. But the rebels seized an anti-aircraft gun used by the militias and turned it against them.
In Zuwarah, 75 miles west of the capital, the police and security forces had pulled out and a “people’s committee” was controlling the city, several people who had fled across the border reported. “The people are taking care of their own business,” said Basem Shams, 26, a fisherman.
In Sabratha, 50 miles west of the capital, witnesses reported that the police headquarters and offices of Colonel Qaddafi’s revolutionary committees were all in smoldering ruins. “We are not afraid; we are watching,” said a doctor by telephone from Sabratha. “What I am sure about, is that change is coming.”
In Zawiyah, an envoy from Colonel Qaddafi had reportedly arrived to warn rebels on Wednesday: “Either leave or you will see a massacre,” one resident told The A.P.
About 5 a.m. Thursday, Colonel Qaddafi’s forces fulfilled their threat. Witnesses said a force that included about 60 foreign mercenaries assaulted a central mosque where some of the roughly 2,000 protesters had sought refuge. One witness said the protesters were armed mainly with rifles, sticks and knives, but after four hours of fighting they managed to hold the square.
About 100 people were killed and 200 were wounded, this witness said. During a telephone interview with him, a voice could be heard over a loudspeaker in the background telling the crowd, in an area known as Martyrs Square, not to be afraid.
“People came to send a clear message: We are not afraid of death or your bullets,” one resident told The A.P. “This regime will regret it. History will not forgive them.”
Meanwhile, the violence sowed concern across the region and beyond. President Obama spoke Thursday, in separate calls, with President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and the prime ministers of Britain and Italy, David Cameron and Silvio Berlusconi. [see today’s govt] [*]
The White House said the leaders expressed “deep concern” over the Libyan government’s use of force and discussed possible responses, without specifying what steps they were prepared to take.
Kareem Fahim reported from Benghazi, and David D. Kirkpatrick from the Tunisian border with Libya. Reporting was contributed by Sharon Otterman, Mona El-Naggar and Neil MacFarquhar from Cairo, and Robert F. Worth from Tunis.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:06 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/africa/25somalia.html
February 24, 2011
Shifting Battlefronts Cut a Long Gash Across Somalia
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and MOHAMMED IBRAHIM [Somalia] [the chaos in Somalia: failed state] [East Africa; south of Horn] [chaos since 1991, fleeing of central govt] [then stability again in 2000s until 2007-2008 when wheels came off yet again] [same old, same old] [GSAVE] [*]
NAIROBI, Kenya — Fierce fighting broke out across Somalia on Thursday along several different fronts, as African Union peacekeepers, Somali government soldiers, allied militias and Ethiopian troops opened a multipronged offensive against radical Islamist insurgents. [*]
The peacekeepers fought house to house in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, pushing back insurgents but taking heavy losses, according to African Union officials.
On the Ethiopian border, residents said that Ethiopian tanks had rolled into battle and shelled positions belonging to the Shabab, the country’s main militant Islamist group.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/africa/25somalia.html
February 24, 2011
Shifting Battlefronts Cut a Long Gash Across Somalia
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and MOHAMMED IBRAHIM [Somalia] [the chaos in Somalia: failed state] [East Africa; south of Horn] [chaos since 1991, fleeing of central govt] [then stability again in 2000s until 2007-2008 when wheels came off yet again] [same old, same old] [GSAVE] [*]
NAIROBI, Kenya — Fierce fighting broke out across Somalia on Thursday along several different fronts, as African Union peacekeepers, Somali government soldiers, allied militias and Ethiopian troops opened a multipronged offensive against radical Islamist insurgents. [*]
The peacekeepers fought house to house in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, pushing back insurgents but taking heavy losses, according to African Union officials.
On the Ethiopian border, residents said that Ethiopian tanks had rolled into battle and shelled positions belonging to the Shabab, the country’s main militant Islamist group. [*]
And in southern Somalia, a militia allied with the transitional Somali government attacked insurgents while Kenyan troops tried to seal the border between the countries, a Western security adviser said.
According to the adviser, who was not authorized to speak publicly, the fighting adhered to a longstanding plan: to spread the insurgents thin and attack them in several places at once.
“There has been chatter for the last month about a coordinated offensive,” the adviser said.
The Shabab, who have pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda, are powerful and widely feared in Somalia, but they have only a few thousand hard-core fighters. The adviser said it was too early to tell if the current fighting was indeed a turning point in the battle against them, but he noted that the offensive seemed to be a coordinated effort. [*]
For nearly the past two years, Somalia’s transitional government has been pinned down in a bullet-ridden corner of Mogadishu. All that stands between it and collapse are 8,000 African Union peacekeepers. [*]
About a year ago, Western countries, including the United States, began preparing the Somali government and the African Union to go on the offensive and attack the Shabab, who have terrorized the population by cutting off hands and publicly executing people. The Shabab have also banned bras and music in some of the areas they control and even pulled out gold teeth, saying such things violated Islamic law.
The American government has been supplying arms and paying salaries for Somali troops, in addition to substantially financing the African Union peacekeeping mission. In the past few days, the peacekeepers have spearheaded the fighting, deploying tanks, armored bulldozers and artillery to pound insurgent positions in Mogadishu. Over the weekend, the peacekeepers wrested several blocks from the Shabab and discovered an extensive underground tunnel and trench system that the insurgents had been using to sneak up on the peacekeepers. [*]
The Shabab deny that they are losing, and Shabab fighters recently struck back with a deadly suicide bombing and have displayed the bodies of slain Burundian peacekeepers killed in battle — at least eight peacekeepers have been killed in recent days.
But African Union and Somali officials said they had taken over several Shabab bases in Mogadishu and were pushing the insurgents back.
“We will not stop the fight until we completely free the enemy from our country,” said Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, Somalia’s prime minister.
In Belet Weyne, near the Ethiopian border, residents described fierce clashes involving Ethiopian tanks and armored vehicles. Ethiopia sent tens of thousands of troops into Somalia in 2006 in an attempt to quash an Islamist movement that controlled much of Somalia at the time. [*]The Ethiopians pulled out in early 2009 — officially, at least, though residents along the border often report small incursions.
On Thursday, residents said the Ethiopians had cornered a large contingent of Shabab forces at Belet Weyne’s airport, which was being shelled. Many civilians were fleeing.
In Bulo Hawo, a town near the Kenyan border that has changed hands several times recently, a clan-based militia allied with the Somali government attacked the Shabab. The assault did not seem to be working, however, because Shabab fighters were thoroughly dug in, [*]the Western adviser said.
Bishar Adam, a Shabab official in the town, displayed a number of bodies of freshly killed men on Wednesday and said that they were government soldiers.
Alfred Mutua, a Kenyan government spokesman, said Thursday that Kenyan troops were not involved in the battles but that Kenya had sent extra troops to the border, to seal it off.
“We’ve fortified our side of the border so the fighting doesn’t spill over,” Mr. Mutua said. “It’s a bit haphazard. It’s not even clear which groups are fighting whom.”
Jeffrey Gettleman reported from Nairobi, and Mohammed Ibrahim from Mogadishu, Somalia.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:05 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/asia/25afghanistan.html
February 24, 2011
U.S. Pulling Back in Afghan Valley It Called Vital to War
By C. J. CHIVERS, ALISSA J. RUBIN and WESLEY MORGAN [Afghanistan] [AfPak] [even as US commits much money and support to Pakistan’s govt] [Obama’s “surge” continues] [after “surge” has success around Kandahar, insurgency strikes back?][use psci 355-455, 469] [more of the long slog that is COIN] [followup] [while the entire democracy movement is nice, it’s creating a sense of dread among USFP policymakers, including on Iran’s eastern side] [*]
This article is by C. J. Chivers, Alissa J. Rubin and Wesley Morgan.
KABUL, Afghanistan — After years of fighting for control of a prominent valley in the rugged mountains of eastern Afghanistan, the United States military has begun to pull back most of its forces from ground it once insisted was central to the campaign against the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
The withdrawal from the Pech Valley, a remote region in Kunar Province, formally began on Feb. 15. The military projects that it will last about two months, part of a shift of Western forces to the province’s more populated areas. [*]Afghan units will remain in the valley, a test of their military readiness. [in COIN one protects strategic population centers] [but timing?] [*]
While American officials say the withdrawal matches the latest counterinsurgency

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/asia/25afghanistan.html
February 24, 2011
U.S. Pulling Back in Afghan Valley It Called Vital to War
By C. J. CHIVERS, ALISSA J. RUBIN and WESLEY MORGAN [Afghanistan] [AfPak] [even as US commits much money and support to Pakistan’s govt] [Obama’s “surge” continues] [after “surge” has success around Kandahar, insurgency strikes back?][use psci 355-455, 469] [more of the long slog that is COIN] [followup] [while the entire democracy movement is nice, it’s creating a sense of dread among USFP policymakers, including on Iran’s eastern side] [*]
This article is by C. J. Chivers, Alissa J. Rubin and Wesley Morgan.
KABUL, Afghanistan — After years of fighting for control of a prominent valley in the rugged mountains of eastern Afghanistan, the United States military has begun to pull back most of its forces from ground it once insisted was central to the campaign against the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
The withdrawal from the Pech Valley, a remote region in Kunar Province, formally began on Feb. 15. The military projects that it will last about two months, part of a shift of Western forces to the province’s more populated areas. [*]Afghan units will remain in the valley, a test of their military readiness. [in COIN one protects strategic population centers] [but timing?] [*]
While American officials say the withdrawal matches the latest counterinsurgency doctrine’s emphasis on protecting Afghan civilians, Afghan officials worry that the shift of troops amounts to an abandonment of territory where multiple insurgent groups are well established, [that’s the question] [*]an area that Afghans fear they may not be ready to defend on their own.
And it is an emotional issue for American troops, who fear that their service and sacrifices could be squandered. At least 103 American soldiers have died in or near the valley’s maze of steep gullies and soaring peaks, according to a count by The New York Times, and many times more have been wounded, often severely. [*]
Military officials say they are sensitive to those perceptions. “People say, ‘You are coming out of the Pech’; I prefer to look at it as realigning to provide better security for the Afghan people,” said Maj. Gen. John F. Campbell, the commander for eastern Afghanistan. “I don’t want the impression we’re abandoning the Pech.”
The reorganization, which follows the complete Afghan and American withdrawals from isolated outposts in nearby Nuristan Province and the Korangal Valley, runs the risk of providing the Taliban with an opportunity to claim success and raises questions about the latest strategy guiding the war. [it’s impossible to know if it’s part of COIN or tactical-strategic withdrawal without more info] [*]
American officials say their logic is simple and compelling: the valley consumed resources disproportionate with its importance; those forces could be deployed in other areas; and there are not enough troops to win decisively in the Pech Valley in any case.
“If you continue to stay with the status quo, where will you be a year from now?” General Campbell said. “I would tell you that there are places where we’ll continue to build up security and it leads to development and better governance, but there are some areas that are not ready for that, and I’ve got to use the forces where they can do the most good.”
President Obama’s Afghan troop buildup is now fully in place, and the United States military has its largest-ever contingent in Afghanistan. Mr. Obama’s reinforced campaign has switched focus to operations in Afghanistan’s south, and to building up Afghan security forces.
The previous strategy emphasized denying sanctuaries to insurgents, blocking infiltration routes from Pakistan and trying to fight away from populated areas, where NATO’s superior firepower could be massed, in theory, with less risk to civilians. The Pech Valley effort was once a cornerstone of this thinking. [*]
The new plan stands as a clear, if unstated, repudiation of earlier decisions. When Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the former NATO commander, overhauled the Afghan strategy two years ago, his staff designated 80 “key terrain districts” to concentrate on. The Pech Valley was not one of them. [is it the difference between McChrystal and Petraeus or something else?] [*]
Ultimately, the decision to withdraw reflected a stark — and controversial — internal assessment by the military that it would have been better served by not having entered the high valley in the first place.
“What we figured out is that people in the Pech really aren’t anti-U.S. or anti-anything; they just want to be left alone,” said one American military official familiar with the decision. “Our presence is what’s destabilizing this area.”
Gen. Mohammed Zaman Mamozai, a former commander of the region’s Afghan Border Police, agreed with some of this assessment. He said that residents of the Pech Valley bristled at the American presence but might tolerate Afghan units. “Many times they promised us that if we could tell the Americans to pull out of the area, they wouldn’t fight the Afghan forces,” he said.
It is impossible to know whether such pledges will hold. Some veterans worry that the withdrawal will create an ideal sanctuary for insurgent activity — an area under titular government influence where fighters or terrorists will shelter or prepare attacks elsewhere.
While it is possible that the insurgents will concentrate in the mountain valleys, General Campbell said his goal was to arrange forces to keep insurgents from Kabul, the country’s capital.
“There are thousands of isolated mountainous valleys throughout Afghanistan, and we cannot be in all of them,” he said. [that’s right; COIN about making choices re what constitutes important population center] [*]
The American military plans to withdraw from most of the four principal American positions in the valley. For security reasons, General Campbell declined to discuss which might retain an American presence, and exactly how the Americans would operate with Afghans in the area in the future.
As the pullback begins, the switch in thinking has fueled worries among those who say the United States is ceding some of Afghanistan’s most difficult terrain to the insurgency and putting residents who have supported the government at risk of retaliation. [*]
“There is no house in the area that does not have a government employee in it,” said Col. Gul Rahman, the Afghan police chief in the Manogai District, where the Americans’ largest base in the valley, Forward Operating Base Blessing, is located. “Some work with the Afghan National Army, some work with the Afghan National Police, or they are a teacher or governmental employee. I think it is not wise to ignore and leave behind all these people, with the danger posed to their lives.”
Some Afghan military officials have also expressed pointed misgivings about the prospects for Afghan units left behind.
“According to my experience in the military and knowledge of the area, it’s absolutely impractical for the Afghan National Army to protect the area without the Americans,” said Major Turab, the former second-in-command of an Afghan battalion in the valley, who like many Afghans uses only one name. “It will be a suicidal mission.”
The pullback has international implications as well. Senior Pakistani commanders have complained since last summer that as American troops withdraw from Kunar Province, fighters and some commanders from the Haqqani network and other militant groups have crossed into Afghanistan from Pakistan to create a “reverse safe haven” from which to carry out attacks against Pakistani troops in the tribal areas. [*]
The Taliban and other Afghan insurgent groups are all but certain to label the withdrawal a victory in the Pech Valley, where they could point to the Soviet Army’s withdrawal from the same area in 1988. Many Afghans remember that withdrawal as a symbolic moment when the Kremlin’s military campaign began to visibly fall apart. [*]
Within six months, the Soviet-backed Afghan Army of the time ceded the territory to mujahedeen groups, according to Afghan military officials.
The unease, both with the historical precedent and with the price paid in American blood in the valley, has ignited a sometimes painful debate among Americans veterans and active-duty troops. The Pech Valley had long been a hub of American military operations in Kunar and Nuristan Provinces.
American forces first came to the valley in force in 2003, following the trail of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the leader of the Hezb-i-Islami group, who, like other prominent insurgent leaders, has been said at different times to hide in Kunar. They did not find him, though Hezb-i-Islami is active in the valley.
Since then, one American infantry battalion after another has fought there, trying to establish security in villages while weathering roadside bombs and often vicious fights.
Along with other slotlike canyons that the United States has already largely abandoned — including the Korangal Valley, the Waygal Valley (where the battle of Wanat was fought in 2008), the Shuryak Valley and the Nuristan River corridor (where Combat Outpost Keating was nearly overrun in 2009) — the Pech Valley was a region rivaled only by Helmand Province as the deadliest Afghan acreage for American troops. [*]
On one operation alone in 2005, 19 service members, including 11 members of the Navy Seals, died.
As the years passed and the toll rose, the area assumed for many soldiers a status as hallowed ground. “I can think of very few places over the past 10 years with as high and as sustained a level of violence,” said Col. James W. Bierman, who commanded a Marine battalion in the area in 2006 and helped establish the American presence in the Korangal Valley.
In the months after American units left the Korangal last year, insurgent attacks from that valley into the Pech Valley increased sharply, prompting the current American battalion in the area, First Battalion, 327th Infantry, and Special Operations units to carry out raids into places that American troops once patrolled regularly. [*]
Last August, an infantry company raided the village of Omar, which the American military said had become a base for attacks into the Pech Valley, but which earlier units had viewed as mostly calm. Another American operation last November, in the nearby Watapor Valley, led to fighting that left seven American soldiers dead.
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington, and Sangar Rahimi from Kabul.
This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: February 24, 2011
An earlier version of this article referred incorrectly to a pullback of American forces in eastern Afghanistan. It is a pullback from remote territory within Kunar Province, not from the province as a whole.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:03 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/asia/25briefs-Pakistan.html
February 24, 2011
Pakistan: Missiles Kill 6 Near Afghan Border
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Pakistan] [AfPak] [hub of the al Qaeda and Taliban activity in AfPak] [and of al Qaeda globally] [use psci 355-455, 469] [more info on some of Pakistan’s govt’s extremes?] [in past couple weeks stories appeared that US had stopped drone attacks due to problems with Pakistani govt over the contractor in Pakistani hands] [what does this mean?] [*]
Missiles believed to have been fired from American drones hit a house and car in a village in North Waziristan, near the Afghan border, on Thursday, killing at least six people, Pakistani intelligence officials said. [did they come from Afghanis side (military) or from Pakistani side (CIA)?] [*]

[full piece may be found above the jump] [*]

Posted by Kent Bolton at 09:02 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-02-22/how-president-obama-should-navigate-the-new-arab-landscape/
Daily Beast
[Accessed 2/24/11 5:25:43 PM] [*]
Libya Protests: Watch Out, Barack Obama
by Leslie H. Gelb
February 22, 2011 | 10:42pm [commentary] [former Council on Foreign Relations president and editor or the orginal “Pentagon Papers, Leslie Gelb] [Realpolitik and a dim view of this democratization business] [*]
With Libya's regime crumbling and protests spreading across the Middle East, neither Obama nor the experts really know whether America should now cheer or cringe.
Remember that great old democrat, Vladimir Ilyich Lenin? Once upon a time, many trumpeted him as the people’s man du jour. He had delicious democratic slogans: “Peace, Bread, and Land” and “All Power to the Soviets” (meaning the peoples’ councils). This pithy platform thrilled throngs longing to stop Russia’s involvement in World War I and retire the czar’s oppressive regime. Good people the world over applauded these populist sentiments, though not the communist progeny. Unfortunately, by democracy, Lenin meant dictatorship by him and the Communist Party. [**]
Now, don’t go crazy. I’m not obsessing about Islamic Lenins lying in wait to exploit the current turmoil. I’m simply noting that experts and the talkocracy seem overeager to

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-02-22/how-president-obama-should-navigate-the-new-arab-landscape/
Daily Beast
[Accessed 2/24/11 5:25:43 PM] [*]
Libya Protests: Watch Out, Barack Obama
by Leslie H. Gelb
February 22, 2011 | 10:42pm [commentary] [former Council on Foreign Relations president and editor or the orginal “Pentagon Papers, Leslie Gelb] [Realpolitik and a dim view of this democratization business] [*]
With Libya's regime crumbling and protests spreading across the Middle East, neither Obama nor the experts really know whether America should now cheer or cringe.
Remember that great old democrat, Vladimir Ilyich Lenin? Once upon a time, many trumpeted him as the people’s man du jour. He had delicious democratic slogans: “Peace, Bread, and Land” and “All Power to the Soviets” (meaning the peoples’ councils). This pithy platform thrilled throngs longing to stop Russia’s involvement in World War I and retire the czar’s oppressive regime. Good people the world over applauded these populist sentiments, though not the communist progeny. Unfortunately, by democracy, Lenin meant dictatorship by him and the Communist Party. [**]
Now, don’t go crazy. I’m not obsessing about Islamic Lenins lying in wait to exploit the current turmoil. I’m simply noting that experts and the talkocracy seem overeager to leap “on the right side of history” and march arm-in-arm with the revolutionaries, whom they don’t know from a hole in the wall. [*]To be blunt, I don’t know anyone who has the foggiest idea where these revolutions from Algeria to the borders of Saudi Arabia are going or whether future leaders there will be true democrats or new dictators. Sure, we all hope that present autocratic friends will help with a peaceful and orderly transition toward real democracy. Sure, we all hope that their successors will be both real democrats and sympathetic to American interests. [*]
I’m hoping for, but I’m certainly not betting on, a bright and more democratic future. Too many things can come a cropper on the rocky road to democracy, especially in the troubled and religiously quixotic world of Arabs and Islam. Will the Egyptian military help to gradually establish democratic institutions and free and fair elections, or will they hold on to their vast political and economic power? I’m betting the military takes over Hosni Mubarak’s old political party and “wins” the election. What of the 70 percent Shiite majority in Bahrain? I’m betting they just want to throw out their longtime Sunni rulers, take over, and embrace Iran. As for Libya and Yemen, I’m not counting on their turning into Switzerlands. And so forth. If only the women of Egypt, so sensible and bright, could take over their country, I’d be sublimely happy. [**]
Whatever this region will look like a year or two from now, it will be different from the last bunch of decades. Leaders, old and new, will have to be somewhat more responsive to their people by sharing additional wealth and power with some groups. [*]This, in turn, will mean a more anti-American foreign policy. Truth be told, most Arab peoples and elites blame America for most of their ills: backing their oppressive leaders, invading Muslim Iraq and Afghanistan, and sustaining the Zionist entity, their hate-filled name for Israel. [indeed, many do] [remember what Mubarak reportedly screamed at Obama] [that the US didn’t know what it was really dealing with] [*]
To be blunt, I don’t know anyone who has the foggiest idea where these revolutions from Algeria to the borders of Saudi Arabia are going or whether future leaders there will be true democrats or new dictators.
Neither Obama nor the experts really know much about the revolutionary democrats in the Middle East and North Africa, or whether America should now cheer or cringe, writes Leslie Gelb. (Credit: AP Photo)
The effects of even modest adjustments in Arab foreign policies could be quite serious: less secure oil supplies at higher costs, degradation of anti-terrorist operations based in the region, an Israel on hair-trigger military alert, and a stronger Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran generally. [agreed] [on the other hand, this was coming sooner or later] [and the US could not realistically have stopped it (and in terms of values didn’t want to)] [*]
So, President Obama, what should you do in these vastly uncertain and threatening times?
First, don’t make your trademark grandiose speeches. Tread carefully and modestly and stick to sound general principles that can survive inevitable surprises and don’t have to be revised daily. [*]Here are some: The U.S. firmly supports peaceful and orderly transition to real, not fake, democracies. The U.S. opposes using force against peoples who demonstrate peacefully. The U.S. stands ready to help as requested by governments and peoples of the region. [absolutely agreed] [of course there’s pressure to make pronouncement after pronouncement] [that’s part of being the president] [stand up to the pressure and stop responding so quickly] [*]
Second, avoid soaring rhetoric that undermines America’s remaining friends or sparks another uprising in Iran, [the US cannot direct these things and it should stop trying to pretend that it can] [*] which might only lead to another round of slaughter. Instead, urge friendly regimes—publicly and privately—to open up their political systems. Leave decisions on revolution in Iran to the Iranian people, and aid them only when and as asked.
Third, avoid all pledges for a new Marshall Plan for the region. Otherwise, American money will be squandered in a sea of corruption. Rather, urge the rich, Arab oil states to kick in the billions they’ve been hoarding for decades and bask in the gratitude of their neighbors. [*]They have the money; and we are limited at the moment from providing new and great sums of aid. [correct] [haven’t heard them yet but said arguments are just around the corner] [*]
Fourth, make policy on a country-by-country basis, paying close attention to each country’s special history and culture. A grand and brand new strategy will only blur critical distinctions and confuse friend and foe alike. [absolutely] [*]
Fifth, don’t just throw out old autocratic babies and suppose you can keep the democratic bathwater. Instead, help, cajole, and push friendly regimes to transition peacefully toward democracy. [*]Specifically, encourage development of political parties, the rule of law, a free press, and genuine elections. That’s much safer both for friendly rulers and far, far better for the people. It reduces risks of their democracy being hijacked by new Lenins. And it will better protect American interests.
Many will argue this modest and careful course will place you on the wrong side of history. But, Mr. President, they don’t know where this Arab whirlwind is tossing us any better than you or I. My fear is that an activist and grand strategy will grossly exaggerate America’s power to shape events and will do more harm than good. [it’’s already begun] [*]
Leslie H. Gelb, a former New York Times columnist and senior government official, is author of Power Rules: How Common Sense Can Rescue American Foreign Policy (HarperCollins 2009), a book that shows how to think about and use power in the 21st century. He is president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Like The Daily Beast on Facebook and follow us on Twitter for updates all day long.
For inquiries, please contact The Daily Beast at editorial@thedailybeast.com.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 06:19 PM | Permalink

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/23/obama_is_helping_iran
Foreign Policy
[Accessed 2/24/11 5:21:25 PM] [*]
Obama Is Helping Iran
How Washington's awkward handling of Middle East uprisings is playing into the hands of the Islamic Republic.
BY FLYNT AND HILLARY MANN LEVERETT | FEBRUARY 23, 2011 [commentary] [the husband and wife team once worked in Bush administration, then broke with Bush over Iran (and Iraq)] [their analysis is quite interesting] [it’s a real critique of Obama administration’s conservative machinery] [it has scarcely changed since President Bush handed reins over to President Obama] [continuity in USFP] [use psci 355-455] [a Realpolitik view of what’s happening in the Middle East] [and it’s not good] [Iran is the big winner, again!] [*]
We take billionaire financier George Soros up on the bet he proffered to CNN's Fareed Zakaria this week that "the Iranian regime will not be there in a year's time." In fact, we want to up the ante and wager that not only will the Islamic Republic still be Iran's

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/23/obama_is_helping_iran
Foreign Policy
[Accessed 2/24/11 5:21:25 PM] [*]
Obama Is Helping Iran
How Washington's awkward handling of Middle East uprisings is playing into the hands of the Islamic Republic.
BY FLYNT AND HILLARY MANN LEVERETT | FEBRUARY 23, 2011 [commentary] [the husband and wife team once worked in Bush administration, then broke with Bush over Iran (and Iraq)] [their analysis is quite interesting] [it’s a real critique of Obama administration’s conservative machinery] [it has scarcely changed since President Bush handed reins over to President Obama] [continuity in USFP] [use psci 355-455] [a Realpolitik view of what’s happening in the Middle East] [and it’s not good] [Iran is the big winner, again!] [*]
We take billionaire financier George Soros up on the bet he proffered to CNN's Fareed Zakaria this week that "the Iranian regime will not be there in a year's time." In fact, we want to up the ante and wager that not only will the Islamic Republic still be Iran's government in a year's time, but that a year from now, the balance of influence and power in the Middle East will be tilted more decisively in Iran's favor than it ever has been. [I think they are absolutey correct, especially in the short to medium term] [*]
Just a decade ago, on the eve of the 9/11 attacks, the United States had cultivated what American policymakers like to call a strong "moderate" camp in the region, encompassing states reasonably well-disposed toward a negotiated peace with Israel and strategic cooperation with Washington: Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the other Persian Gulf states, as well as Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey. On the other side, the Islamic Republic had an alliance of some standing with Syria, as well as ties to relatively weak militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Other "radical" states like Saddam Hussein's Iraq and Muammar al-Qaddafi's Libya were even more isolated.
Fast-forward to the eve of Barack Obama's inauguration as president of the United States, in January 2009. As a result of the Iraq war, the collapse of the Arab-Israeli peace process, and some fairly astute diplomacy by Iran and its regional allies, the balance of influence and power across the Middle East had shifted significantly against the United States. [*]Scenarios for "weaning" Syria away from Iran were becoming ever more fanciful as relations between Damascus and Tehran became increasingly strategic in quality. Turkey, under the Justice and Development Party (AKP), was charting a genuinely independent foreign policy, including strategically consequential partnerships with Iran and Syria. Hamas and Hezbollah, legitimated by electoral successes, had emerged as decisively important political actors in Palestine and Lebanon. It was looking progressively less likely that post-Saddam Iraq would be a meaningful strategic asset for Washington and ever more likely that Baghdad's most important relationships would be with Iran, Syria, and Turkey. [*]And, increasingly, U.S. allies like Oman and Qatar were aligning themselves with the Islamic Republic and other members of the Middle East's "resistance bloc" on high-profile issues in the Arab-Israeli arena -- as when the Qatari emir flew to Beirut a week after the 2006 Lebanon war to pledge massive reconstruction assistance to Hezbollah strongholds in the south and publicly defended Hezbollah's retention of its military capabilities.
On Obama's watch, the regional balance of influence and power has shifted even further away from the United States and toward Iran and its allies. The Islamic Republic has continued to deepen its alliances with Syria and Turkey and expand its influence in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine. [*]Public opinion polls, for example, continue to show that the key leaders in the Middle East's resistance bloc -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Syrian President Bashar Assad, Lebanon's Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas's Khaled Mishaal, and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- are all vastly more popular across the region than their counterparts in closely U.S.-aligned and supported regimes in Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, and Saudi Arabia.
And, now, the Obama administration stands by helplessly as new openings for Tehran to reset the regional balance in its favor emerge in Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and perhaps elsewhere. [*]If these "pro-American" Arab political orders currently being challenged or upended by significant protest movements become at all more representative of their populations, they will no doubt become less enthusiastic about strategic cooperation with the United States. And, if these "pro-American" regimes are not replaced by salafi-dominated Islamist orders, the Arab governments that emerge from the present turmoil are likely to be at least somewhat receptive to Iran's message of "resistance" and independence from Israel and the West. [incredibly bleak] [*]
Certainly, any government in Cairo that is even mildly more representative than Hosni Mubarak's regime will not be willing to keep collaborating with Israel to enforce the siege of Gaza or to continue participating in the CIA's rendition program to bring Egyptians back to Egypt to be tortured. Likewise, any political order in Bahrain that respected the reality of that country's Shiite-majority population would be firmly opposed to the use of its territory as a platform for U.S. military action against Iranian interests. [I think they are right] [*]
Over the next year, all these developments will shift the regional balance even more against the United States and in favor of Iran. If Jordan -- a loyal U.S. client state -- were to come into play during this period, that would tilt things even further in Iran's direction.
Against this, Soros, other American elites, the media, and the Obama administration all assert that the wave of popular unrest that is taking down one U.S. ally in the Middle East after another will now bring down the Islamic Republic -- and perhaps the Assad government in Syria, too. This is truly a triumph of wishful thinking over thoughtful analysis.
Many of these same actors, of course, worked themselves up into quite a frenzy after the Islamic Republic's June 2009 presidential election. For months, we were subjected to utterly unsubstantiated claims that the election had been stolen and that the Green Movement would sweep aside the Iranian "regime." Like Soros today, many pundits who predicted the Islamic Republic's demise in 2009 or 2010 put various time frames on their predictions -- all of which, to the best of our knowledge, have passed without the Iranian system imploding. [*](But don't worry about the devastating impact of such egregious malpractice on the careers of those who proved themselves so manifestly incompetent at Iran analysis. In today's accountability-free America, every one of the Iran "experts" who were so wrong about the Green Movement in 2009 and 2010 is back at it again.)
From literally the day after Iran's 2009 presidential election, we pointed out that the Green Movement could not succeed in bringing down the Islamic Republic, for two basic reasons: The movement did not represent anything close to a majority of Iranian society, [*]and a majority of Iranians still support the idea of an Islamic Republic. Two additional factors are in play today, which make it even less likely that those who organized and participated in scattered demonstrations in Iran over the past week will be able to catalyze "regime change" there.
First, what is left of the Green Movement represents an even smaller portion of Iranian society than it did during the summer and fall of 2009. The failures of defeated presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to convincingly document their assertions of electoral fraud and the Green Movement's pivotal role in the West's progressive demonization of the Islamic Republic since June 2009 have not played well with most Iranians inside Iran. [*]That's why, for example, former President Mohammad Khatami has quietly distanced himself from what is left of the Green Movement -- as has every reformist politician who wants to have a political future in the Islamic Republic. As a result of these highly consequential miscalculations by the opposition's ostensible leaders, those who want to try again to organize a mass movement against the Islamic Republic have a much smaller pool of troops that they might potentially be able to mobilize. This is not a winning hand, even in an era of Facebook and Twitter.
Second, the effort to restart protests in Iran is taking place at a moment of real strategic opportunity for Tehran in the Middle East. The regional balance is shifting, in potentially decisive ways, in favor of the Islamic Republic and against its American adversary. [*]In this context, for Mousavi and Karroubi to call their supporters into the streets on Feb. 14 -- just three days after the Obama administration had started issuing its own exhortations for Iranians to revolt against their government and as Obama and his national security team reeled from the loss of Mubarak, America's longtime ally in Egypt -- was an extraordinary blunder.
The Iranian people are not likely to recognize as their political champions those whom they increasingly perceive as working against the national interest. Two of Ahmadinejad's most prominent conservative opponents -- former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and former Revolutionary Guard commander and presidential candidate Mohsen Rezai -- have publicly and severely criticized Mousavi and Karroubi over their recent actions and statements. Parliament speaker Ali Larijani, another Ahmadinejad opponent, told his colleagues last week, "The parliament condemns the Zionists, American, anti-revolutionary, and anti-national action of the misled seditionists," accusing the two Green Movement leaders of falling into "the orchestrated trap of America."
U.S. attempts to intervene in the Islamic Republic's internal politics are typically maladroit and often backfire. But the Obama administration's performance is setting new standards in this regard. [*]Among other consequences, the administration's latest initiative to stir up unrest in Iran will put what is left of the reform camp in Iranian politics at an even bigger disadvantage heading into parliamentary elections next year and the Islamic Republic's next presidential election in 2013, because reformists are now in danger of being associated with an increasingly marginalized and discredited opposition movement that is, effectively, doing America's bidding.
At a more strategic level, the Obama administration's post-Ben Ali, post-Mubarak approach to Iran is putting important U.S. interests in serious jeopardy. It is putting at risk, first of all, the possibility of dealing constructively with an increasingly influential Islamic Republic in Iran. More broadly, at precisely the time when the United States needs to figure out how to deal with legitimate, genuinely independent Islamist movements and political orders, which are the most likely replacements for "pro-American" autocracies across the Middle East, the Obama administration's approach to Iran is taking U.S. policy in exactly the opposition direction. [*]
The United States faces serious challenges in the Middle East. Its strategic position in this vital part of the world is eroding before our eyes. Indulging in fantasies about regime change in Iran will only make the situation worse.
Flynt Leverett teaches international affairs at Pennsylvania State University and is a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation. Hillary Mann Leverett teaches international affairs at Yale and American University. Together, they write www.RaceForIran.com.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 06:18 PM | Permalink

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/u-s-should-direct-mideast-storm-of-change-toward-iran-1.345363
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/24/11 5:27:21 PM] [*]
Published 05:36 24.02.11
U.S. should direct Mideast storm of change toward Iran
[Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [there are few regimes Israelis find as reprehensible as Libya] [I’m starting to hear this more and more] [Israelis who think America has gone too far with this democracy business?] [not just an Obama critique but a USFP critique] [*]
These days Washington is dismantling Bahrain, undermining Jordan and endangering Saudi Arabia, thereby turning Iran into the leading regional power. Unless the American policy changes, the result could be a geostrategic disaster.
By Ari Shavit
The great Arab revolution holds great promise. Like any uprising against tyranny, it arouses solidarity, enthusiasm and hope. Despite the terrible massacre in Libya, there is no doubt - 2011 is the Middle East's 1989. It could even be the Middle East's 1789. The secular

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/u-s-should-direct-mideast-storm-of-change-toward-iran-1.345363
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/24/11 5:27:21 PM] [*]
Published 05:36 24.02.11
U.S. should direct Mideast storm of change toward Iran
[Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [there are few regimes Israelis find as reprehensible as Libya] [I’m starting to hear this more and more] [Israelis who think America has gone too far with this democracy business?] [not just an Obama critique but a USFP critique] [*]
These days Washington is dismantling Bahrain, undermining Jordan and endangering Saudi Arabia, thereby turning Iran into the leading regional power. Unless the American policy changes, the result could be a geostrategic disaster.
By Ari Shavit
The great Arab revolution holds great promise. Like any uprising against tyranny, it arouses solidarity, enthusiasm and hope. Despite the terrible massacre in Libya, there is no doubt - 2011 is the Middle East's 1989. It could even be the Middle East's 1789. The secular Arab despotism is collapsing before our eyes. The Arab giant is awakening from a coma. A decadent, degenerate, corrupt world order is crumbling. Millions of oppressed people are experiencing their first sense of liberation. [*]
The new era that started in Tunisia last month is spreading rapidly to Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan and Bahrain. The Arab men and women of the 21st century have received an unprecedented proposal of freedom.
But the great Arab revolution also holds great danger. In the past decade, the United States dismantled Iraq, took Egypt apart and lost Turkey. In doing so, it broke down the Sunni buffer against Iran. These days Washington is dismantling Bahrain, undermining Jordan and endangering Saudi Arabia - thereby turning Iran into the leading regional power. [it’s inarguable that Iraq resulted in Iran being more powerful in the region] [Israelis think Egypt now will do the same] [and from Realpolitik standpoint, Iran is relatively more powerful as Sunni regimes tank!] [*] Unless the American policy changes, the result could be a geostrategic disaster.
Under the heading of "democratization," the Shi'ite Muslims will take over a considerable part of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. Under the heading of "liberation," radicals will take over a considerable part of the Arab world. Peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and between Israel and Syria will become impossible. The Israeli-Egyptian and Israeli-Jordanian peace treaties will fade away. Islamic, neo-Nasserist and neo-Ottoman forces will mold the Middle East. The 2011 revolution could end up the same way as the 1789 French Revolution did - some Bonaparte will hijack it, take advantage of it and turn it into a long succession of bloody wars. [sadly, some of these dire predictions are real possiblities] [*]
The change in the Arab world should have been sparked during another era - a decade or two ago. The change in the Arab world should have been generated in a different way - by reform, rather than revolution. But now it is too late, there is no turning back; the revolution is in full swing. This is why the Americans are right in wanting to be on the correct side of history. The Americans are right in siding with the masses who are demanding their rights. But the Americans are wrong to start with toppling their allies' regimes. The Americans are wrong in paving with their own hands the road to victory for the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran. [well, those are two different things] [and those two things will inevitably go at each other] [so this analysis is short term only?] [*]
There is only one way out of this catch-22. Moving from defense to offense. Is Barack Obama the new George Bush? Is David Cameron the new Tony Blair? Is Hillary Clinton determined to implement the neoconservatives' ideological platform? Good luck to them. But don't do it only in the West's backyard. Don't do it only in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Bahrain. Do it alongside forceful humanitarian intervention in Libya as well. Do it in Iran, too. [this is real fear and concern about the freedom agenda that has now spilled over into Obama] [I’ve made many comments on it, especially in govt] [*]
Take the spirit of freedom blowing through Cairo's squares and bring it to Tehran's squares. Take the Google, Facebook and Twitter revolts and bring them to the ayatollahs. Topple Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's tyranny as you toppled Hosni Mubarak's. Fight the Shia's religious fascism and Muammar Gadhafi's madness with the same relentlessness you fought the pro-Western dictatorships.
Only in this way will you be able to implement the West's democratic values along with its strategic interests. Only in this way will you be able to empower freedom without sparking zealotry and igniting war.
For three weeks, most of the Western media told us that the Tahrir Square revolution was the faceless revolution of the Google generation. But on February 18, 2011, when a million Egyptians celebrated their liberation in Cairo's central square, it turned out that the revolution's face is that of the fanatic Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi. [*]
If the Western powers don't come to their senses quickly, they could discover that the face of the new Middle East is al-Qaradawi; Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan; Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The face of those who are trying to turn the winds of change blowing across the Middle East into a violent, fanatic hurricane. [author is making the short-term mistake of thinking Shi’a expansion can coexist with Sunni—I don’t see how it can?] [*]

Posted by Kent Bolton at 06:17 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/24/cairo_it_aint
Foreign Policy
[Accessed 2/24/11 5:19:09 PM] [*]
Cairo It Ain't
[Yemen] [Middle East] [Tunisia’s Jasmine revlution spread to Egypt to?][broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [use psci 355-455, psci 469] [overflow in Yemen] [followup] [Yemen is tremendously complicated due to GSAVE there?] [I suspect the Obama NSC principals are nearly apoloplectic about Jasmine spreading to Yemen?] [*]
Pro-democracy protesters have started something big in Yemen. But are they going to like how it ends?
BY HALEY SWEETLAND EDWARDS | FEBRUARY 24, 2011
SANAA, Yemen—The night that two anti-government demonstrators were shot dead by supporters of the Yemeni regime amid the protests and counterprotests roiling Yemen's dusty capital city, I visited the scene of the crime: a blocked-off T-shaped intersection in front of the metal gates of Sanaa University. The intersection has been ground zero over the past 13 days for the anti-government protesters who have risen up against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, [*]the strongman who has ruled Yemen for more than three decades. His effigy swings from a lamppost above the protesters' multicolored tents.
When I arrived at the university late on Feb. 22, I found an unusual cross section of Yemen's

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/24/cairo_it_aint
Foreign Policy
[Accessed 2/24/11 5:19:09 PM] [*]
Cairo It Ain't
[Yemen] [Middle East] [Tunisia’s Jasmine revlution spread to Egypt to?][broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [use psci 355-455, psci 469] [overflow in Yemen] [followup] [Yemen is tremendously complicated due to GSAVE there?] [I suspect the Obama NSC principals are nearly apoloplectic about Jasmine spreading to Yemen?] [*]
Pro-democracy protesters have started something big in Yemen. But are they going to like how it ends?
BY HALEY SWEETLAND EDWARDS | FEBRUARY 24, 2011
SANAA, Yemen—The night that two anti-government demonstrators were shot dead by supporters of the Yemeni regime amid the protests and counterprotests roiling Yemen's dusty capital city, I visited the scene of the crime: a blocked-off T-shaped intersection in front of the metal gates of Sanaa University. The intersection has been ground zero over the past 13 days for the anti-government protesters who have risen up against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, [*]the strongman who has ruled Yemen for more than three decades. His effigy swings from a lamppost above the protesters' multicolored tents.
When I arrived at the university late on Feb. 22, I found an unusual cross section of Yemen's fragmented society. Young educated Yemenis were standing shoulder to shoulder with bearded religious leaders, T-shirt-clad teenagers, and tribesmen from Yemen's rural north. [*]A 20-year-old hipster -- even Yemen has a few of them -- held hands in prayer with a white-cloaked tribesman, a foot-long dagger slung across his slender waist. The diversity within the protests is striking; it's also perhaps the single most important indicator of whether there will be a revolution in Yemen.
Yemen is not Egypt. Hosni Mubarak presided over a mostly stable country with working government institutions, a functioning if lagging economy, and a robust civil society with a coherent vision of what a democratic post-Mubarak Egypt might look like. Yemen has none of those things. [**]For all the hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of military aid Saleh's government has received from the United States, the Yemeni president exercises real control over only about half of his country, and three-quarters of its people. [*]Large swaths of the restive south, which was a separate country until 21 years ago, are effectively no-go zones for his government, as are much of the eastern tribal lands and the mountainous north, where Houthi rebels have battled the government for the last six years. [*]
Yemen's economy consists of little more than the country's oil exports, which are dwindling, and unemployment hovers around 35 percent. Terrorist organizations like al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which has masterminded several attempted attacks on American soil from its base in Yemen, operate here with near impunity. [*]And average Yemenis' loyalties are divided not just among political factions but also among the intricate strata of tribal affiliations that have been the principal fabric of the country's society for centuries. A revolution in Yemen stands a better chance of producing an all-out civil war of the sort the country has endured regularly throughout its history than it does of creating anything resembling a stable democracy. [that is, another civil war!] [*]
Saleh has stayed in office as long as he has largely because he has learned better than anyone else how to navigate this vastly complex political and social landscape: He has been adept at figuring out whom to court, whom to buy off, and whom to kill to hold onto power. He has no shortage of enemies, but for any one of them to consolidate a serious opposition would have been nearly impossible. When protests first materialized in early February, Saleh announced that he wouldn't seek reelection in 2013, but many in Sanaa don't believe him -- they say if the president manages to hang on to office that long, through the current bout of restiveness, he'll only be more confident in his ruling abilities than he is now.
But after Saleh's supporters fired Kalashnikovs on anti-government demonstrations in Sanaa on Feb. 19 and then again on Feb. 22, killing two and wounding dozens, the unthinkable is suddenly thinkable. The attacks in the capital -- while relatively tame compared with violence elsewhere, which has claimed at least 10 more lives -- seem to have struck a chord, potentially catalyzing cooperation between Yemen's wildly disparate anti-government factions. [yikes] [*] University students, illiterate tribesmen, Houthi rebels, southern separatists, socialists, and Islamists, who have little in common aside from a searing hatred for Saleh, now seem willing to collaborate, at least in the short term. [then what?] [let’s say they got rid of Saleh] [how long before they turn on each other?] [*] That unlikely coalition may be the only thing that could end his 32-year reign. The million-dollar question, however, is what would follow.
On the night of Feb. 24, for the first time, the number of protesters in front of Sanaa University reached roughly 10,000 -- four times the size of previous protests -- partially because tribal members came out in force. Demonstrators from the far ends of the Yemeni social spectrum articulated their complaints in nearly the exact same words. "This is not freedom, when your government kills you," Nasser Saber, a tribesman from Marib, a rugged eastern province, told me. "Must we choose," a doctor from Sanaa asked, "between death and freedom?"
Earlier this month, both separatist leaders in Yemen's south, who have called for secession from Yemen for more than 15 years, and Houthi rebels in Yemen's north, who have fought on-again, off-again wars with Saleh's government since 2004, pledged their support for anti-Saleh protesters on the streets of Yemen's cities. Since then, separatist leaders have staged a series of protests in the southern provinces and in the port city of Aden, often marching alongside student activists, according to local reports. On Feb. 21, Houthi leaders held mass demonstrations in Yemen's northern provinces, according to the group's press release. "We are marching as a statement of solidarity … and in praise of the students and civil society organizations who initiated this revolution against tyranny," the statement said.
Within the small sphere of Yemeni national politics, opposition parties, including the socialists, Nasserites, and the powerful Islamic Brotherhood, have long joined under an umbrella coalition, the Joint Meetings Party (JMP). [*]This week, the JMP announced its support for the protesters as well. "It is true that we must all work together," said Mohammed Qahtan, a leading member of al-Islah, Yemen's Islamic Brotherhood party, and an outspoken member of the JMP. "We cannot succeed if we are going in different directions."
The ultimate wild card in Yemeni politics, as always, is what the country's tribes -- which exercise an extraordinary amount of political influence, especially in Yemen's north -- will do. In the past, Saleh, a tribesman himself, has managed to control many of the tribes by plying their leaders with money, cars, and favors. But as his government's coffers have dried up, he has been unable to keep his historically fickle -- and well-armed -- base happy. [*]
Local newspapers say that Saleh is now scrambling to retain allegiances even within his own tribal group after Hamid al-Ahmar, whose powerful family heads the Hashid confederation, the largest and most influential tribal alliance in Yemen, publicly announced his support for the anti-Saleh protesters. Both Saleh and Ahmar have spent the last several weeks meeting with tribal leaders on separate occasions, jockeying for their capricious loyalties. Saleh, whose own tribe falls within the Hashid confederation, also hosted a rally this week in Sanaa for tribal leaders and their people.
Government officials have dismissed the suggestion that tribesmen -- traditionally Saleh's most loyal base -- would join anti-government protesters en masse. For now, at least, there is truth to this: While perhaps a few thousand tribesmen joined the anti-Saleh demonstrations Feb. 24, the majority of those tribesmen who have come to Sanaa for the demonstrations are still across town in the pro-Saleh camps. [*]
Saleh himself has also actively downplayed the possibility of cooperation between his enemies, reminding the media at a press conference Feb. 21 that Yemen is a country of 24 million people and that demonstrations in Sanaa have topped out in the several thousands. "It's an infection that came from Tunis to Egypt and other countries," he said. "It's like influenza."
And Saleh hasn't held together one of the world's most fractious countries for three decades by accident. The latest round of upheavals may test his virtuoso deal-making skills, but they won't necessarily defeat them. It's possible to envision an outcome in which the president quietly brokers a compromise with tribal leaders and the JMP, keeping them at bay until the 2013 election with cash and promises of reform. [*]That would leave only the students and other pro-democracy protesters in the streets outside Sanaa University -- at most a few thousand people. They would be a nuisance for Saleh, but would hardly constitute a revolution. [*]
But it's equally possible to imagine things lurching violently in the opposite direction: some tribes joining up with Saleh's many enemies, while others side with the embattled president, thrusting this already fragile country into an all-out civil war. [*]And even if the tribes stick together -- and they usually don't -- to force the president out of office, Yemen is still not in the clear. With no obvious leader standing atop this tangled mess of contradictory alliances, the tribes -- not to mention the Houthis and southern separatists -- might very well turn on one another in a scramble to fill the power vacuum. Some leaders, like Ahmar, say that's too dire a prediction -- but in Yemen, it's hardly an implausible one.
Neither of these most likely outcomes, however, is anything like what the students and other members of Sanaa's fledgling civil society envisioned when they brought the Arab revolt to Yemen. "We do not want to have a revolution so our new government will be controlled by tribal alliances and corruption," Adel al-Surabi, a young protest leader, told me. "We want a revolution so we can have a true democracy. At least for now, I don't see that happening."
Haley Sweetland Edwards is a freelance journalist who covers Yemen and the Caucasus. She recently lived in Yemen on a Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting grant.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 06:16 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/24/terrorists_on_trial
Foreign Policy
[Accessed 2/24/11 5:17:03 PM] [*]
Terrorists on Trial
Does a nearly deserted courtroom in the Caucasus offer any hints as to why the violence here has taken on a new level of viciousness?
BY TOM PARFITT | FEBRUARY 24, 2011 [Russia] [former USSR] [Russia’s “Near Abroad” and what Russia considers its sphere of influence?] [use psci350] [use ir text] [the long, hard slog that is democratization] [followup] [though I often stick their stuff in societal (punditry and expert analysis), this and another piece today (Yemen) were both journalists reporting on scence] [Russia and GSAVE] [followup] [use psci 355-455] [*]
Victim Aslan Tsipinov's mother shows a newspaper article about her son.
NALCHIK, Russia — At the end of a street lined with graffiti-scrawled apartment blocks on the edge of this city in southern Russia is a steel-roofed building the size of a small aircraft hangar.
The building was constructed for a single purpose: the trial of 58 suspects -- the largest number of defendants for a single legal proceeding in modern Russian history -- accused of joining in an Islamist guerrilla raid on Nalchik on Oct. 13, 2005. [remember the school attack (Beslan?) was in 2004] [*]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/24/terrorists_on_trial
Foreign Policy
[Accessed 2/24/11 5:17:03 PM] [*]
Terrorists on Trial
Does a nearly deserted courtroom in the Caucasus offer any hints as to why the violence here has taken on a new level of viciousness?
BY TOM PARFITT | FEBRUARY 24, 2011 [Russia] [former USSR] [Russia’s “Near Abroad” and what Russia considers its sphere of influence?] [use psci350] [use ir text] [the long, hard slog that is democratization] [followup] [though I often stick their stuff in societal (punditry and expert analysis), this and another piece today (Yemen) were both journalists reporting on scence] [Russia and GSAVE] [followup] [use psci 355-455] [*]
Victim Aslan Tsipinov's mother shows a newspaper article about her son.
NALCHIK, Russia — At the end of a street lined with graffiti-scrawled apartment blocks on the edge of this city in southern Russia is a steel-roofed building the size of a small aircraft hangar.
The building was constructed for a single purpose: the trial of 58 suspects -- the largest number of defendants for a single legal proceeding in modern Russian history -- accused of joining in an Islamist guerrilla raid on Nalchik on Oct. 13, 2005. [remember the school attack (Beslan?) was in 2004] [*]
Despite the magnitude of the charges -- 142 people died in the attack -- the trial has been going on virtually unnoticed by the outside world since March 2009. Local newspapers here in the republic of Kabardino-Balkaria carry occasional reports from the process, but most Russians have no clue it is even taking place.
One morning this month, I walked through an eerily quiet neighborhood, past two police cordons and several groups of soldiers cradling automatic weapons, into the hearing room, which was almost entirely empty of spectators.
To follow Tom's path through the Northern Caucasus, check out this Google map.
It was an extraordinary sight. Three judges occupied a podium at the end of the hall, about 60 yards from where I sat. To their right sat a handful of blue-suited prosecutors. To their left, about 30 defense lawyers bent over their papers at a long line of benches. Behind the lawyers were six cages holding the defendants, mostly thickly bearded men in tracksuits and baseball caps.
What surprised me was their demeanor. The men in the cages -- they are all men -- were facing life sentences for allegedly causing the death of scores of people in coordinated attacks on police stations, Federal Security Service [*](FSB) offices, military buildings, and a gun store. But they looked confident. They leaned through the bars, they lolled on each other's shoulders, they exchanged jokes and sat in twos or threes, talking and smiling. At the beginning of the hearing, they prayed loudly together, their hands upturned, their eyes closed.[*]
During the proceedings, the defendants made occasional statements into microphones in front of their cages. Some had become skilled at legalese. Others were simply swaggering.
One stepped forward to say that Khachim Shogenov, the republic's former interior minister, should be called to give evidence "while he was still alive." He warned, "Such people will be killed in this republic. By the time this process ends, praise be to Allah, they will all be destroyed." (Shogenov narrowly escaped harm last month in an assassination attempt in which two of his bodyguards died.) [*]
The Nalchik raid was neither the first nor the most deadly attack on Russian towns or cities in the past decade. [*]In 2002, at least 40 gunmen seized 850 hostages at a theater in Moscow; about 170 people were left dead. Two years later, a group of 32 armed men took 1,100 pupils, teachers, and parents captive at School Number One in Beslan, North Ossetia. Almost 400 people died.
What makes the Nalchik assault unique is that 58 suspects survived in custody, [in past, Russians have taken no prisoners!] [*]unlike earlier raids where most, if not all, the terrorists were killed in the fighting. Because of this, it's an important opportunity to explore the motivations and psyches of the militants, even if practically no one (either in Nalchik or elsewhere in Russia) appears to be watching.
Many of the accused do not deny they were involved in the 2005 events. But they dispute the details and argue that they were driven to their actions by a campaign of persecution.
"What these lads did came after months and years of provocations by the security services on the basis of their religion," said Larisa Dorogova,[*] a lawyer who has worked with the families of the accused. "They were beaten, they were sodomized with bottles. Some had crosses shaved into their heads. Some were forced to drink vodka. It reached a point when they couldn't take any more." [*]
That this persecution took place is widely accepted. The republic's current president, Arsen Kanokov, who came to office only two weeks before the Nalchik raid, said last September that "extreme violence" had been directed at orthodox Muslims in the years prior. [*]
And yet no one was punished for the excesses. "The events that led up to October 13 were never properly dealt with," said Valery Khatazhukov, a Nalchik-based human rights activist. "And the ongoing sense of outrage and injustice felt by the insurgents as the trial goes on is one of the reasons they have become even more radical."
This hardening of Kabardino-Balkaria's insurgents is a demonstrable truth. [*]Over the last three months, the guerrillas have stepped up their assassinations of policemen and state officials. And while indiscriminate mass killings using suicide bombers have been a regular tactic in the North Caucasus for at least a decade, recently the insurgents in this republic moved on to a new method of terror: gangland-style murders of individual civilians.
On Feb. 18, masked militiamen in a black car without license plates pulled over a minibus carrying a group of tourists from Moscow through Kabardino-Balkaria's Baksan district to the ski slopes at Mount Elbrus. The men asked for documents, but when the tourists refused to hand them over they opened fire, killing three. It was the first attack on tourists that anyone I spoke to here could remember.
The militants' goal, most likely, was to discredit the Kremlin's plan -- announced by President Dmitri Medvedev at Davos -- to develop a $15 billion chain of new ski resorts across the North Caucasus, [*]one of them close to Elbrus. Attacking tourists can at least be said to have a purpose, albeit a diabolical one: using terror to disrupt Moscow's attempts to stabilize the area. But what was the point of killing Aslan Tsipinov?
Tsipinov, 51, was a beekeeper and ethnographer who organized festivals celebrating the customs of the Kabardin, a subgroup of the Circassians who are the dominant people in Kabardino-Balkaria. He was shot dead at his gate by two men on Dec. 29.
When I visited Tsipinov's large red-brick house on the edge of Shalushka village near Nalchik, the dead man's 19-year-old son, Ozdemir, showed me Makhosh, his father's horse. Tsipinov's mother, Tsatsa, received me as a mourner, laying a hand on my chest and embracing me. She showed me Aslan's picture: a handsome man standing ramrod-straight in a traditional cherkesska tunic cinched at the waist, one hand resting lightly on the hilt of an ornamental dagger. "He was only for tolerance," said Tsatsa. "Whenever he talked of a plan, he began with the words, 'If Allah allows it, I hope to do this, or that.' Why murder him?"
Ratmir Shameyev, a notorious 22-year-old leader of the Kabardino-Balkaria jamaat [*](as the militants call their fighting units), had a simple answer. Dressed all in black and wearing his trademark eye patch, Shameyev appeared in a video announcement on the jamaat's website 10 days after Tsipinov's death, clutching an automatic weapon. The ethnographer was a "mushrik" (idolater) who promoted pagan customs, he said. And thus, he had to die. [*]
Tsipinov's murder caused particular bitterness because he was a prominent and much-loved public figure. But the extremists have also killed several fortunetellers (also considered mushriks) and businessmen in recent weeks -- the latter, probably, for refusing to pay a tithe to the rebels.
The growing brutality has left the republic's leadership desperately seeking a way to cut off the radicals. [*]At an emergency parliamentary session this month, MPs sent an appeal to Medvedev asking for help with security. "This string of murders has shaken the republic," said Prime Minister Anuar Chechenov, as reported by the local paper Gazeta Yuga. "There is a mood of panic." He added: "The population is forming the conclusion that the authorities can't even protect themselves, let alone ordinary people."
A few days later, Medvedev's envoy to the North Caucasus, Alexander Khloponin, swooped into Nalchik. It was the day I arrived in the city, and groups of policemen were huddled on every street corner. Khloponin met with a group of 200 university students, who asked him the cause of the recent escalation.
"It's the fault of the authorities -- federal, regional, and municipal," he replied frankly. "It's corruption and inequality. Some people are allowed to break the law, and others are not. We have forgotten that everyone is equal before the law, and that is a systematic mistake.
"The second reason is a bandit carve-up," Khloponin added. "Under the cloak of Islam, many are just dividing property, and it has nothing in common with religion. One other reason is a low level of culture and education. The ignorant also use Islam as a cover. And, finally, there is high unemployment among the young. Without tackling that, we will have problems." [*]
It was a neat and correct assessment. But since I've been here I've found little evidence that people believe the arrogant "power" (as state authorities are collectively called in Russia) is ready to change its spots. Kabardino-Balkaria's economy is showing healthy growth compared with other nearby republics like Ingushetia and Dagestan, yet poverty and discontent are still widespread.
And then there's the human rights issue. Khatazhukov told me that violations by the security services have been reined in, but that there are still individual officers who think torture is an acceptable tool for extracting information about the whereabouts of rebel camps. [*]
Such tactics threaten only more bloodshed.
A few days after visiting the Nalchik trial, I met some relatives of fighters who took part in the 2005 raid. One of them was Arsen Tukov, whose son, Anatoly, 31, died in a fierce exchange of gunfire with police.
Arsen, a composed, avuncular man with a long white beard, described himself as a Salafi: a follower of the pious strain of Islam. From 2001 to 2005, he was the imam of a mosque in the Nartan suburb of Nalchik.
As we sat drinking tea in a cafe called Salaam, Arsen described how during that period, police officers would cart off young men from his and other mosques for cruel interrogations. Some came back with bruises and broken ribs. The police ignored all pleas to stop. Later his mosque and several others considered hot spots of fundamentalism were closed and bulldozed.
Arsen didn't condone his son's actions, he added. Yet there was a reason Anatoly and his friends fought on that October day six years ago.
"In Islam, there are three steps one must take in the event of persecution," said Arsen.
"The first step, if you live in a Christian state, is to apply to the authorities and request protection from harassment. Which they did: They wrote 162 official complaints, all with no result.
"The second step is to ask to be resettled to a place where you can fulfill your religious obligations. Four hundred and eighty Muslims from here wrote an appeal to the federal authorities asking assistance to move to another land. The power refused to help."
Arsen paused for a moment to sip his tea. I noticed he smelled faintly of sweet incense. And the third step? I asked.
"The third step comes if all efforts are exhausted and the persecution continues," he said, pushing away his cup. "That is when you no longer have the right to sit at home, when you must come out and defend your religion." Arsen lowered his voice and leaned forward.
"The third step," he said, "is jihad." [*]
Tom Parfitt is a fellow of the London-based Royal Geographical Society and a former public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center. His trip is supported by the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 06:15 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/gadhafi-blames-al-qaida-for-manipulating-clashes-in-libya-1.345475
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/24/11 5:16:01 PM] [*]
Published 16:58 24.02.11
Gadhafi blames al-Qaida for manipulating clashes in Libya
[Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [there are few regimes Israelis find as reprehensible as Libya] [so it’s telling when Israelis newspapers write editiorials on subject] [*]
Libyan leader offered condolences for those who have died in anti-government clashes that have overtaken country; clashes continue, with rebels reportedly seizing control of key Libyan oil terminals.
By Reuters Tags: Israel news Libya
Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi, who has lost control of large parts of the country following violent clashes, offered his condolences over those who died, calling them "Libya's children."

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/gadhafi-blames-al-qaida-for-manipulating-clashes-in-libya-1.345475
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/24/11 5:16:01 PM] [*]
Published 16:58 24.02.11
Gadhafi blames al-Qaida for manipulating clashes in Libya
[Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [Israelis continue to watch the neighborhood in horror] [followup] [there are few regimes Israelis find as reprehensible as Libya] [so it’s telling when Israelis newspapers write editiorials on subject] [*]
Libyan leader offered condolences for those who have died in anti-government clashes that have overtaken country; clashes continue, with rebels reportedly seizing control of key Libyan oil terminals.
By Reuters Tags: Israel news Libya
Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi, who has lost control of large parts of the country following violent clashes, offered his condolences over those who died, calling them "Libya's children."
The embattled leader, speaking to Libyan TV on Thursday, blamed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden for manipulating Libyans who have risen up him and taken control of large parts of the oil-producing country. [Qaddafi uses the bin Laden card] [*]
"Bin Laden ... this is the enemy who is manipulating people," Gadhafi said, speaking by telephone to Libyan television. "Do not be swayed by bin Laden."
"I only have moral authority," said Gadhafi, who has long sought to present himself as a leader of a revolution that is led by the people, rather than a traditional executive head of state.
"No sane person" would join the protests against his rule, Gadhafi said and called on citizens to take weapons from those who were protesting. He also said in reference to the fighting that people were taking hallucinogenic drugs. [he also said something about no one over the age of 20] [I was just streaming al Jazeera and while many are young, I’ve seen older men and women involved] [*]
Meanwhile, opponents of the Libyan leader have occupied the center of a town near the capital and are laying home-made traps to fend off counter-attacks by pro-Gadhafi forces, a witness said.
Residents of Benghazi said key Libyan oil and product terminals to the east of the capital are in the hands of rebels who have seized control. They said the oil and product terminals at Ras Lanuf and Marsa El Brega were being protected.
Soliman Karim, a resident involved with helping administer the eastern city of Benghazi, said exports, a vital source of income for OPEC-member Libya, were continuing. A second resident suggested flows might have been affected. The information could not immediately be confirmed from those operating the terminals. [*]
Libya's Quryna newspaper reported that ten people were killed while fighting in the western Libyan town of Zawiyah, where witnesses had reported heavy gunfire and chaotic scenes, earlier on Thursday.
The newspaper said that the death toll was likely to rise because shooting was preventing the wounded from reaching hospital.
Referring to the violent clashes taking place in Zawiyah, Gadhafi said, "What is happening in Zawiyah is a farce. ... Sane men don't enter such a farce." He called on citizens to "leave the country calm." [*]
Zawiyah is about 50 km (30 miles) west of the Libyan capital and appeared to have become the country's biggest flashpoint for fighting.
Sharif Abdeen, a 25-year-old Egyptian who left Zawiyah on Thursday, said several hundred civilian opponents of Gadhafi were putting doors with nails sticking out of them in the street to try to sabotage army vehicles.
Around the town, he and other witnesses said, there was a heavy security force presence, including dozens of army jeeps and soldiers with rocket-propelled grenades.
"Everyone is so scared that people send each other SMSs and say: 'If anyone asks you if you are pro-Gadhafi or against him, do not say anything or you could get killed'," Abdeen told Reuters after crossing the border into Tunisia.
Two other people who crossed into Tunisia after travelling through Zawiyah said there were people in civilian clothes running through the streets with guns, and the sound of heavy gunfire could be heard. [*]
Zawiyah, on the Mediterranean coast, is on the main highway between the Tunisian border and the Libyan capital and is also the site of an oil terminal.
"I heard heavy gunfire in Zawiyah and people were running around in the streets with guns," said Hussein Ibrahim, an Egyptian carpenter, after crossing into Tunisia.
"Lots of people in civilian clothes are firing at each other. They seem to be pro-Gaddafi people and their enemies," said Mohamed Jaber, who also passed through Zawiyah on his way to Tunisia on Thursday.
"It is chaotic there. There are people with guns and swords," he said.
A Tripoli resident, who did not want to be identified, said protesters gathered in the Zawiyah central square on Thursday morning when they were attacked by a unit of a paramilitary force led by one of Gadhafi's sons, Khamis.
"Between 16 and 20 demonstrators were killed on sight, and more than 100 were injured, some of them seriously, and the number of casualties is expected to rise," the resident told Reuters. The death toll could not be verified.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 06:14 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/africa/24pirates.html
February 23, 2011
Seizing of Pirate Chiefs Is Questioned in Killings
By ERIC SCHMITT
WASHINGTON — When the two pirates boarded the U.S.S. Sterett off the coast of Somalia on Monday, American officials thought they were headed for a breakthrough in the four-day standoff with a gang that had seized four Americans vacationing on their 58-foot yacht.
But an F.B.I. hostage-rescue negotiator aboard the Sterett came to believe the two Somalis were not serious. So the Americans took them into custody and told the pirates back on the yacht to send over someone they could do business with.
What happened next is sharply contested and raises questions about the crucial decision to detain the pirate leaders.
American officials said the pirates on the yacht, called the Quest, seemed relieved — even “exceptionally calm” — when told their senior commander was cooling his heels in a Navy brig.
But hours later, panic ensued among young pirates. Some Americans theorized that a fight

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/africa/24pirates.html
February 23, 2011
Seizing of Pirate Chiefs Is Questioned in Killings
By ERIC SCHMITT
WASHINGTON — When the two pirates boarded the U.S.S. Sterett off the coast of Somalia on Monday, American officials thought they were headed for a breakthrough in the four-day standoff with a gang that had seized four Americans vacationing on their 58-foot yacht.
But an F.B.I. hostage-rescue negotiator aboard the Sterett came to believe the two Somalis were not serious. So the Americans took them into custody and told the pirates back on the yacht to send over someone they could do business with.
What happened next is sharply contested and raises questions about the crucial decision to detain the pirate leaders.
American officials said the pirates on the yacht, called the Quest, seemed relieved — even “exceptionally calm” — when told their senior commander was cooling his heels in a Navy brig.
But hours later, panic ensued among young pirates. Some Americans theorized that a fight had broken out among the gang members, suddenly leaderless, and fearing they were about to be overtaken by the four Navy warships that surrounded them. One person who has talked to associates of the pirates said their leader had told them that if he did not return, they should kill the hostages, though American officials say they do not know that to be the case.
The death of the four Americans — the yacht’s owners, Jean and Scott Adam of Marina del Rey, Calif., and two crew members, Phyllis Macay and Robert A. Riggle of Seattle — is certain to add momentum to a wide-ranging review the Obama administration is conducting on how to combat the growing threat from bands of Somali pirates. The episode began last Friday, when the Quest sent out a distress signal 275 miles from the coast of Oman, in open waters between Mumbai and Djibouti. A Yemeni fishing vessel that served as a mother ship for the pirates was seen near the yacht when it was hijacked by pirates in a smaller craft, maritime officials said, but it disappeared once the American warships drew near.
As the military converged on the yacht, officials learned that there might be a way to negotiate with the pirates’ financiers and village elders, who could have acted as shore-based intermediaries if communication permitted. But for unknown reasons these contacts did not pan out.
On Monday, the two pirates boarded the Sterett, which had pulled within 600 yards of the Quest, to conduct face-to-face negotiations, apparently knowing that it was unlikely they could get away with the yacht or its passengers. One of the pirate negotiators was a seasoned commander, who had several successful hijackings under his belt, according to one person who has regular contacts with pirate cells.
The F.B.I. agent involved was a hostage negotiator from a special team based at Quantico, Va., who was experienced in both domestic and international hostage crises, a law enforcement official said Wednesday. It was unclear whether the agent had ever negotiated with Somali pirates.
The two pirates were brought on board “in a good-faith attempt to negotiate the safe release of the hostages” a military official said. Once the Americans came to believe they were not serious, the official said, the pirate commander and his ally were detained and their fellow pirates were notified.
“The pirates who were brought aboard the ship never communicated back to their pirate allies on the Quest,” said the official, who agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity because of the F.B.I. investigation.
“The pirates on the Quest seemed relieved and were exceptionally calm in discussions with the negotiator,” said the military official. He said the Americans placed an offer on the table. The pirates could take the Quest, or another small Navy boat. But they had to release the hostages and could not take them to join the hundreds of travelers who are believed being held for ransom in pirate strongholds.
The pirates communicated back that they wanted to sleep on the offer, the military official said. The Americans agreed, giving them eight hours.
Whatever calm the pirates displayed on the surface masked a roiling split, according to one person who has been in contact with Somali pirate cells, including people who were in communication with others who know those aboard the Quest.
Somali pirate specialists say the pirates once had an informal code that required members to treat one another well and not harm hostages, valuable commodities who draw ransom payments on average of $4 million. But while Somali pirates might once have been a tight-knit group motivated by money, not murder, pirates and pirate experts say the lure of big money was attracting less-disciplined young Somalis hungry to share in the new riches.
Somali pirates interviewed Wednesday said something must have gone very wrong in the case of the Quest, since killing hostages is bad for business and is almost certain to draw a more aggressive response from countries like the United States. “We don’t kill hostages,” said a pirate in Hobyo who gave his middle name as Hassan. “We have many hostages here, and we treat them well. But the pirates might have been angered by the Americans.”
The person in contact with pirate cells said a gun fight had broken out below deck on the Quest, likely over money or the hostages’ fate. American officials theorize this may have been the case. Five minutes after the pirates fired a rocket-propelled grenade at the Sterett, and small arms fire erupted, 15 Navy SEAL commandos stormed the yacht. The hostages were dead or dying. American officials said it was unclear whether they had been executed or killed in the pirates’ cross-fire. Other pirate hostages have died in captivity or during rescue attempts, but there are few, if any, cases of pirates intentionally killing hostages.
The commandos shot and killed one pirate and stabbed another. Two other pirates were found dead, apparently killed by their comrades, and 13 surrendered to the Americans.
“While the pirates clearly knew, from the beginning of our negotiations, that we were not going to allow the Quest to make shore, they gave no warning, no visible signs whatsoever that the hostages’ lives were in danger,” said the military official. The senior law enforcement official added, “These incidents, by their very nature, often move at a rapid pace which requires difficult decisions in real time.”
Jeffrey Gettleman contributed reporting from Nairobi, Kenya.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 05:07 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/middleeast/24briefs-Iran.html
February 24, 2011
U.S. Imposes Sanctions Against 2 Iranian Officials
By REUTERS [obama white house] [residual from bush white house] [Iran’s illicit nukes?] [bureaucracy: treasury department] [use psci 355, 455, 469] [112th congress, 1st session] [followup] [*]
The United States on Wednesday imposed sanctions against two Iranian officials for what it said were human rights abuses against protesters after the disputed 2009 election. The Treasury Department said that the Tehran prosecutor general, Abbas Jafari-Dolatabadi, and the commander of the Basiji forces of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Reza Naqdi, had been added to its blacklist.

[full piece may be found above the jump] [*]

Posted by Kent Bolton at 05:05 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/22/AR2011022206987.html
Lawsuit alleges FBI violated Muslims' freedom of religion
By Jerry Markon
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; A13 [obama white house] [residual from previous tenures] [112th congress, 1st session] [bureaucracy: FBI as part of IC and part of justice department] [prosecution of jihadis which has presented some problems to US] [NSC to bureaucracy] [continuity in USFP?] [use psci 355-455, 469] [LWOT] [the California jihadis mess from a few years ago] [followup] [*]
An FBI informant who infiltrated a California mosque violated the constitutional rights of hundreds of Muslims by targeting them for surveillance because of their religion, the ACLU and a Muslim group said in a lawsuit Tuesday.
The lawsuit, filed against the FBI and seven of its agents and supervisors, focuses on the actions several years ago of Craig Monteilh, a paid FBI informant. Monteilh has said he was instructed to spy on worshipers at an Irvine mosque in a quest for potential terrorists, allegations that prompted fierce criticism of the FBI from some Muslims in Southern California and nationwide.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/22/AR2011022206987.html
Lawsuit alleges FBI violated Muslims' freedom of religion
By Jerry Markon
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; A13 [obama white house] [residual from previous tenures] [112th congress, 1st session] [bureaucracy: FBI as part of IC and part of justice department] [prosecution of jihadis which has presented some problems to US] [NSC to bureaucracy] [continuity in USFP?] [use psci 355-455, 469] [LWOT] [the California jihadis mess from a few years ago] [followup] [*]
An FBI informant who infiltrated a California mosque violated the constitutional rights of hundreds of Muslims by targeting them for surveillance because of their religion, the ACLU and a Muslim group said in a lawsuit Tuesday.
The lawsuit, filed against the FBI and seven of its agents and supervisors, focuses on the actions several years ago of Craig Monteilh, a paid FBI informant. Monteilh has said he was instructed to spy on worshipers at an Irvine mosque in a quest for potential terrorists, allegations that prompted fierce criticism of the FBI from some Muslims in Southern California and nationwide.
The lawsuit alleges that Monteilh was ordered by his FBI handlers to conduct "indiscriminate surveillance" of Muslims, violating their First Amendment right to freedom of religion. Filed on behalf of three Muslim plaintiffs, the 64-page document seeks class action status, unspecified damages and a court order instructing the FBI to destroy or return the information Monteilh collected.
"The FBI should be spending its time and resources investigating actual threats, not spying on every American who happens to worship at a mosque,'' said Peter Bibring, a staff attorney for the ACLU of Southern California, which filed the complaint along with the Los Angeles office of the Council on American-Islamic Relations.
FBI officials declined to comment on the lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in Los Angeles, but empasized that they are careful not to violate civil liberties when they use informants and do not target anyone based on religion or ethnicity.
The lawsuit comes after years of national debate over how the FBI can stop terrorism while preserving civil liberties. The FBI says it has been successful in striking that balance.
FBI and Justice Department officials say that they have gone to great lengths to maintain good relations with Muslims and that the Monteilh case is not representative of those efforts. Some Muslims say the revelations about Monteilh have seriously damaged their relationship with the FBI.
Monteilh, who had served time in jail after being convicted of forgery, revealed his informant status in 2009, and law enforcement sources have confirmed that he was a paid FBI informant for several years until 2007. They have said he aided an existing investigation and was not told to target Muslims because of their religion.
Legal experts said that point - whether the ACLU can prove that the FBI randomly targeted Muslims - will be key in determining the case's outcome. If the FBI did, "the case has a strong likelihood of success,'' said David Cole, a constitutional law and national security expert at Georgetown University's law school. [*]
John Baker, a professor at Louisiana State University's law school and a former state prosecutor, said the ACLU's case is heavily dependent on Monteilh's word. "Using informants is an unsavory business, and informants often lie,'' he said. "How trustworthy is his information? No one knows.''
Legal experts said that there have been a number of legal challenges to FBI surveillance practices since the 1970s but that the current lawsuit is among the first to accuse the agency of targeting people based on religion.
Monteilh, a Los Angeles native, has said he became an informant for a federal-state task force in 2003 and was later recruited by the FBI for counterterrorism cases. Agents, he said, provided his cover: Farouk al-Aziz, a French Syrian in search of his Islamic roots. His code name was "Oracle."
Monteilh said he was instructed to infiltrate mosques throughout Orange County and two neighboring counties in Southern California but was told to focus on the Islamic Center of Irvine.
Members of that mosque have said Monteilh attended prayers five times a day, and he has said he tape-recorded Muslims at the mosques, in their homes and at a gym. He helped build a terrorism-related case against a mosque member, but the case collapsed.
The lawsuit says that Monteilh's handlers, FBI agents Kevin Armstrong and Paul Allen, instructed him to collect e-mail addresses, phone numbers and other detailed information about Muslims and "explicitly told Monteilh that Islam was a threat to America's national security. ''
Through an FBI spokeswoman, the two agents declined to comment.
Ali Malik, a plaintiff in the lawsuit who helped teach Monteilh about Islam at the Irvine mosque, said the Muslim community has yet to recover from Monteilh's actions.
"A lot of people now see the mosque as a place where the government can just come in and spy on you,'' said Malik, who says he has been questioned by the FBI several times since his dealings with Monteilh. "It's going to take a long time to heal those wounds.''
markonj@washpost.com © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 05:05 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/africa/23diplomacy.html
February 22, 2011
U.S. Condemns Libyan Tumult but Makes No Threats
By MARK LANDLER [Obama white house] [112th congress, 1st session] [foreign-policy, national-security bureaucracy, mostly] [GSAVE, Jasmine Revolution] [NSC principals and others] [use psci 355-455] [condemning Libya’s bloodbath (and it’s just getting started)] [psci 469] [*]
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration on Tuesday reiterated its condemnation of bloody clashes between protesters and those loyal to the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, but it stopped short of threatening concrete measures, like sanctions or a no-flight zone above Tripoli.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the Libyan government was responsible for the bloodshed, which she called “completely unacceptable.” But with the United States not yet able to get its diplomats out of the country, she said, “the safety and well-being of

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/africa/23diplomacy.html
February 22, 2011
U.S. Condemns Libyan Tumult but Makes No Threats
By MARK LANDLER [Obama white house] [112th congress, 1st session] [foreign-policy, national-security bureaucracy, mostly] [GSAVE, Jasmine Revolution] [NSC principals and others] [use psci 355-455] [condemning Libya’s bloodbath (and it’s just getting started)] [psci 469] [*]
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration on Tuesday reiterated its condemnation of bloody clashes between protesters and those loyal to the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, but it stopped short of threatening concrete measures, like sanctions or a no-flight zone above Tripoli.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the Libyan government was responsible for the bloodshed, which she called “completely unacceptable.” But with the United States not yet able to get its diplomats out of the country, she said, “the safety and well-being of Americans has to be our highest priority.”
“We are in touch with many Libyan officials, directly and indirectly, and with other governments in the region to try to influence what is going on inside Libya,” Mrs. Clinton said to reporters at the State Department.
On Monday, the State Department ordered 35 diplomats and their dependents to leave Libya. On Tuesday, it was not able to move them because of a shortage of seats on commercial flights. It has asked commercial carriers to fly larger planes to Tripoli and has charter flights on standby, said the State Department spokesman, Philip J. Crowley.
On Wednesday afternoon, a ferry chartered by the United States government is scheduled to leave Tripoli for Malta, the State Department announced Tuesday evening. It advised American citizens wishing to leave Libya to arrive at the dock by 10 a.m. Wednesday morning.
Even before the violence, the United States had worried about the safety of its diplomats in Tripoli. The State Department called home its ambassador, Gene A. Cretz, after his name appeared on cables made public by WikiLeaks, which disclosed embarrassing details about the personal habits of Colonel Qaddafi.
“It is a totally legitimate concern, given Qaddafi’s past behavior,” said Tom Malinowski, head of the Washington office of Human Rights Watch. “But the more they signal that their chief concern is for the safety of their people, the more the incentive for the Qaddafi government to hold hostages.”
Mr. Crowley said the Libyan government had pledged to cooperate with the United States in evacuating Americans. Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey D. Feltman has spoken several times by telephone with Libya’s foreign minister, Moussa Koussa.
In addition to the embassy personnel, about 600 American citizens are registered with the embassy in Tripoli, as well as several thousand people with dual American-Libyan citizenship. Many of those work for energy companies and were also trying to get out of the country, he said.
Mrs. Clinton said the United Nations Security Council was the proper place for further action against Libya. After a day of debate on Tuesday, the Security Council condemned the use of force against peaceful demonstrators in Libya and called for those responsible for such attacks to be held to account.
Mrs. Clinton said the situation was still too murky to make a judgment about what to do next. “As we gain a greater understanding of what is actually happening,” she said, “we will take appropriate steps in line with our values, our principles and our laws.” She noted that communications were largely shut down.
Among the steps the United States could take, analysts said, would be to reintroduce the sanctions it imposed, starting in the 1970s, for state-sponsored terrorism, most notably the bombing of a Pan Am plane over Lockerbie, Scotland. It lifted the sanctions after Libya renounced terrorism.
An even more drastic step would be instituting a no-flight zone over Tripoli to prevent warplanes or helicopters from shooting at protesters. But NATO planes would most likely have to enforce such a ban, and analysts said the alliance was unlikely to take such a step without a much greater escalation of the violence.
Administration officials said drafting a United Nations sanctions resolution would take time, since the Security Council would have to prove a case against Libya — which could be difficult, given the chaos on the ground.
Despite the lack of military ties between the United States and Libya, unlike those with Egypt or Bahrain, analysts said it was wrong to argue that the administration had little leverage over the Libyan government.
“Not having ties also gives you more room to impose targeted sanctions or prosecute Libyan officials,” Mr. Malinowski said. “They weren’t whining about their lack of leverage when they went after Qaddafi for his nuclear program.”

Posted by Kent Bolton at 05:04 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/23/AR2011022303232.html
In the Middle East protests, a seismic shift
By Fareed Zakaria
Thursday, February 24, 2011; [oped] [Jasmine Revolution] [interesting piece] [use psci 355-455] [*]
We are in the midst of a revolution in the Middle East, one that has unleashed long-suppressed forces that will continue to send shock waves across an arc of countries from Morocco to Iran. We are all looking at each crisis individually as it breaks out. But if we step back we can see that this is really a seismic shift and that it will in time reverberate throughout the region. [exactly what I’ve been trying to get my students to understand] [we will look back at Janu-March 2011 as a really monumental time] [*]
For the first time in perhaps a millennium, the Arab people are taking charge of their own affairs. Since the 11th century, after conquests by Mongol, Persian and Turkish armies, Arab lands have been controlled by foreign powers. Most of these lands were ruled by the Ottoman Empire for centuries. By the late 18th century, as Ottoman power waned, the era of European expansion began, and for the next 150 years the Middle East fell under its sway. In the aftermath of World War I, Britain and France carved up the remnants of the Ottoman Empire, creating most of the

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/23/AR2011022303232.html
In the Middle East protests, a seismic shift
By Fareed Zakaria
Thursday, February 24, 2011; [oped] [Jasmine Revolution] [interesting piece] [use psci 355-455] [*]
We are in the midst of a revolution in the Middle East, one that has unleashed long-suppressed forces that will continue to send shock waves across an arc of countries from Morocco to Iran. We are all looking at each crisis individually as it breaks out. But if we step back we can see that this is really a seismic shift and that it will in time reverberate throughout the region. [exactly what I’ve been trying to get my students to understand] [we will look back at Janu-March 2011 as a really monumental time] [*]
For the first time in perhaps a millennium, the Arab people are taking charge of their own affairs. Since the 11th century, after conquests by Mongol, Persian and Turkish armies, Arab lands have been controlled by foreign powers. Most of these lands were ruled by the Ottoman Empire for centuries. By the late 18th century, as Ottoman power waned, the era of European expansion began, and for the next 150 years the Middle East fell under its sway. In the aftermath of World War I, Britain and France carved up the remnants of the Ottoman Empire, creating most of the modern Middle Eastern states. [*]
After World War II, as Europe's empires collapsed, the Middle East became a region of intense superpower rivalry. Moscow and Washington lined up a set of allies, to which they each promised military protection and aid. Then the Soviet empire crumbled, and the United States became the sole outside power. Most Arab countries had to make their peace with Washington - Libya's renunciation of its nuclear program being a vivid example. Iran has tried to set itself up as the alternative power balancing American hegemony, but it has had limited success outside of Lebanon.
Throughout this almost 1,000 years of foreign domination, the Arabs always had local rulers. But these sheiks, kings and generals were appointed or supported by the outside imperial powers. Most of the Middle East's monarchies were created out of whole cloth by the British - Saudi Arabia being the important exception. These local rulers were more skilled at negotiating up, to the imperial authorities, than they were at negotiating down, to their people. [absolutely true] [*] They ruled their people not through negotiations but by force and bribery (once the oil money began to flow).
Over the past few years, two major American shifts have opened up the Middle East.[*] The first was Washington's recognition that American support for the region's dictators has bred a vicious strain of Islamic opposition - violent and deeply anti-American. [1] [*]Since then, Washington has been publicly and privately more ambivalent in its support for Middle East rulers, pushing them toward reform. (This is well documented by the WikiLeaks cables from the Middle East.) The second has been the waning of American power itself. The Iraq war and its bloody aftermath, a still-chaotic Afghanistan, and an Israeli-Palestinian deal that seems as far away as ever all highlight the limits of American power. [2] [*]
Both George W. Bush and Barack Obama deserve some credit for what has happened. Bush put the problem of the Middle East's politics at the center of American foreign policy. His articulation of a "freedom agenda" for the Middle East was a powerful and essential shift in American foreign policy (as I wrote at the time). But because so many of Bush's policies were unpopular in the region, and seen by many Arabs as "anti-Arab," it became easy to discredit democracy as an imperial plot. In 2005, Hosni Mubarak effectively silenced a vigorous pro-democracy movement by linking it to Bush. [I couldn’t agree more and had already said same to my students] [*]
Obama has had a quieter approach, supporting freedom but insisting that the United States did not intend to impose it on anyone. As unsatisfying as this might have been as public rhetoric, it has had the effect of allowing the Arab revolts of 2011 to be wholly owned by Arabs. This is no small matter, because the success of these protests hinges on whether they will be seen as organic, indigenous, national movements. [agreed] [*]
So far the Obama administration has handled each crisis as it has erupted, balancing the interests and opportunities presented in each country. That is understandable in a fast-moving, fluid situation. Bahrain is a close ally - hosting an American naval base - with a somewhat reformist monarch. Libya is a repressive, rogue state with a cruel and crazy man at its helm - and Washington should move far more forcefully against him. But at some point, the Obama administration will have to step back and think about a new American strategy for a Middle East that is in the midst of this historic change.
comments@fareedzakaria.com © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 05:03 PM | Permalink

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/23/AR2011022305993.html
Why was President Obama last to speak up on Libya?
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; 8:23 PM [editorial] [Post lambasts Obama for being too slow on Libya?] [hardly a surprise] [Diehl at the Post is neconservative and Obama can do nothing right in his mind] [plus which Obama has given Israel a hard time so Obama is really in the Post doghouse] [I think his statement yesterday was actually pretty good] [I just hope the administration has thought through implications of upcoming Jasmine Rev targets] [what do they do in Yemen, for instance?] [use psci 355-455] [*]
ONCE AGAIN, an Arab dictator is employing criminal violence in a desperate effort to remain in power - and once again, the Obama administration has been slow to find its voice. [let’s see, Clinton came out, Rice at UN came out, then yesterday Obama made explicit USFP on Libya] [that’s being slow to find its voice?] [*] This time, the tyrant is one of the Middle East's most evil men - Moammar Gaddafi, whose regime has staged spectacular terrorist attacks against Americans in addition to brutalizing its own people. Having apparently lost control of most of the country, Mr. Gaddafi has unleashed an orgy of bloodshed in the capital, Tripoli, using foreign mercenaries and aircraft to attack his own people. Like

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/23/AR2011022305993.html
Why was President Obama last to speak up on Libya?
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; 8:23 PM [editorial] [Post lambasts Obama for being too slow on Libya?] [hardly a surprise] [Diehl at the Post is neconservative and Obama can do nothing right in his mind] [plus which Obama has given Israel a hard time so Obama is really in the Post doghouse] [I think his statement yesterday was actually pretty good] [I just hope the administration has thought through implications of upcoming Jasmine Rev targets] [what do they do in Yemen, for instance?] [use psci 355-455] [*]
ONCE AGAIN, an Arab dictator is employing criminal violence in a desperate effort to remain in power - and once again, the Obama administration has been slow to find its voice. [let’s see, Clinton came out, Rice at UN came out, then yesterday Obama made explicit USFP on Libya] [that’s being slow to find its voice?] [*] This time, the tyrant is one of the Middle East's most evil men - Moammar Gaddafi, whose regime has staged spectacular terrorist attacks against Americans in addition to brutalizing its own people. Having apparently lost control of most of the country, Mr. Gaddafi has unleashed an orgy of bloodshed in the capital, Tripoli, using foreign mercenaries and aircraft to attack his own people. Like Saddam Hussein, he has retreated to a bunker, and he has vowed to fight to "the last drop of blood."
Governments around the world have been condemning this appalling stance and the terrible slaughter it has caused. The European Union [the same EU that Diehl and fellow travelers cannot stand because it demands Israelis make concessions to Palestinians?] [it’s rather interesting Post is lauding the EU?] [*] has agreed in principle to impose sanctions, and the Arab League has said Libya will be excluded from its meetings. British Prime Minister David Cameron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi all condemned the regime's violence. Said French President Nicolas Sarkozy: "The continuing brutal and bloody crackdown against the Libyan civilian population is revolting. The international community cannot remain a spectator to these massive violations of human rights." [silly] [*]
By late Wednesday only one major Western leader had failed to speak up on Libya: Barack Obama. Before then, the president's only comment during five days of mounting atrocities was a statement issued in his name by his press secretary late last Friday, which deplored violence that day in three countries: Yemen, Libya and Bahrain. For four subsequent days, the administration's response to the rapidly escalating bloodshed in Libya consisted of measured and relatively mild statements by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Administration officials explained this weak stance by saying they were worried about U.S. citizens, hundreds of whom were being extracted by ferry Wednesday afternoon. There were fears that the desperate Mr. Gaddafi might attack the Americans or seek to take them hostage. But the presence of thousands of European citizens in Libya did not prevent their government's leaders from forcefully speaking out and agreeing on sanctions.
Late Wednesday afternoon, Mr. Obama finally appeared at a White House podium. He said "we strongly condemn the use of violence in Libya," but he did not mention Mr. Gaddafi or call for his removal. He said the administration was preparing a "full range of options" to respond but didn't say what those might be; he made no mention of the no-fly zone that Libya's delegation at the United Nations has called for. He stressed that the United States would work through international forums - and said Ms. Clinton would travel to Geneva for a meeting of the notoriously ineffectual U.N. Human Rights Council, which counts Libya as a member.
Mr. Obama appeared eager to make the point that the United States was not taking the lead in opposing Mr. Gaddafi's crimes. "It is imperative that the nations and the peoples of the world speak with one voice," he said. "That has been our focus." Shouldn't the president of the United States be first to oppose the depravities of a tyrant such as Mr. Gaddafi? Apparently this one doesn't think so. [huh?] [are they not reading the entire speech?] [*] © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 05:02 PM | Permalink

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/22/AR2011022203763.html
Obama's moment in the Middle East - and at home
By William Kristol
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; [another neoconservaitve weighs in] [interesting argument by Kristol on supporting democratization] [use psci 355-455] [*]
It is of course possible, and probably likely, that the Arab Spring of 2011 will fail, as other springs in the Middle East and elsewhere have never come to fruition.
There would still be a case, for reasons of honor and duty, for the United States to try to help, to do the right thing, to stand with the opponents of tyranny, even if one thought them likely, even nearly certain, to fail.
But we don't know they'll fail. And it would be terrible for the United States to have stood by, encumbered by uncertainty, weakened by sophistication, paralyzed by self-doubt, as we did little more than watch the uprisings across the Middle East and fret as a possibly historic moment slips away. Not only because that moment could vindicate American principles and mean a gain for American interests but because we claim those American principles to be universal principles -

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/22/AR2011022203763.html
Obama's moment in the Middle East - and at home
By William Kristol
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; [another neoconservaitve weighs in] [interesting argument by Kristol on supporting democratization] [use psci 355-455] [*]
It is of course possible, and probably likely, that the Arab Spring of 2011 will fail, as other springs in the Middle East and elsewhere have never come to fruition.
There would still be a case, for reasons of honor and duty, for the United States to try to help, to do the right thing, to stand with the opponents of tyranny, even if one thought them likely, even nearly certain, to fail.
But we don't know they'll fail. And it would be terrible for the United States to have stood by, encumbered by uncertainty, weakened by sophistication, paralyzed by self-doubt, as we did little more than watch the uprisings across the Middle East and fret as a possibly historic moment slips away. Not only because that moment could vindicate American principles and mean a gain for American interests but because we claim those American principles to be universal principles - not realizable always or everywhere but to be approached when and where possible.
There is at the very least an effort underway to approach them in the Middle East. We can't control the outcome. We may not even be able to affect it decisively. But the forces of civilization are not without resources to bring to bear. [*]
What exactly to do in each case is complicated; it depends on difficult judgments of facts on the ground. It might be that if more analysts and commentators spent more time trying to figure out what could be done, and less time thinking up clever analogies that allegedly show how things are destined to turn out, or finding ever more reasons any effort on our part is doomed to fail, we might learn that we have more ways to affect events than we now think.
But at such moments we can't depend on analysts and commentators. This is a time when one looks, necessarily, to the president. So far, one looks in vain. What has been strikingly lacking in the Obama administration's response is a sense of the possibility of the moment, a commitment to doing our best to bring that possibility to fruition, a realization that this may be an important inflection point in world history that should shake us out of business as usual. [his audience is clearly inside the Beltway, including in the White House] [*]
This means more than speeches - though speaking out would be a start. It means aggressive efforts, covert and overt, direct and indirect, to help the liberals - in the old sense of the word - in the Middle East. It means considering the use of force when force is used to kill innocent civilians. It means a full-scale engagement of the U.S. government, an across-the-board effort with allies and international organizations, a real focus on the challenge these times present.
This can be President Obama's moment. It's not quite the one he expected or perhaps the one he wanted. He's not the president that some of us would have preferred to have to deal with this situation. But there he is, and his moment is our moment.
History is full of ironies. But a sense of irony needn't imply an embrace of passivity. If Obama rises to this moment, if he can help the Arab Spring come even partly to fruition, we critics of his administration here at home will be glad to salute him - as will, just as surely and more importantly, hundreds of millions of lovers of freedom around the world.
William Kristol is editor of the Weekly Standard. © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 05:01 PM | Permalink

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/opinion/23wed2.html
February 22, 2011
Libya’s Butcher
[editorial] [on Qaddafi] [with few complications to cause temperance, Times lets loose on Qaddafi] [interesting compared to Bahrain and Egypt] [*]
Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya vowed on Tuesday that he would “fight on to the last drop of my blood” and die a “martyr.” We have no doubt that what he really meant is that he will butcher and martyr his own people in his desperation to hold on to power. He must be condemned and punished by the international community.
Colonel Qaddafi, who took power in a 1969 coup, has a long, ruthless and erratic history. Among his many crimes: He was responsible for the 1988 bombing of Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland. In 2003, after years of international sanctions, he announced that he had given up terrorism and his pursuit of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
We applauded those changes, and we are not eager to see Libya once again isolated. But Colonel Qaddafi’s brutal suppression of antigovernment demonstrations has left no doubt

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/opinion/23wed2.html
February 22, 2011
Libya’s Butcher
[editorial] [on Qaddafi] [with few complications to cause temperance, Times lets loose on Qaddafi] [interesting compared to Bahrain and Egypt] [*]
Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya vowed on Tuesday that he would “fight on to the last drop of my blood” and die a “martyr.” We have no doubt that what he really meant is that he will butcher and martyr his own people in his desperation to hold on to power. He must be condemned and punished by the international community.
Colonel Qaddafi, who took power in a 1969 coup, has a long, ruthless and erratic history. Among his many crimes: He was responsible for the 1988 bombing of Pan Am 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland. In 2003, after years of international sanctions, he announced that he had given up terrorism and his pursuit of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
We applauded those changes, and we are not eager to see Libya once again isolated. But Colonel Qaddafi’s brutal suppression of antigovernment demonstrations has left no doubt that he is still an international criminal.
As of Tuesday, opposition forces claimed to control half of Libya’s 1,000-mile Mediterranean coast. Witnesses described the capital, Tripoli, as a war zone and said pro-government forces, relying heavily on mercenaries, were massacring demonstrators.
Authoritative information was difficult to come by — the government has blocked nearly all foreign reporters and shut down Internet and other communications. But there were reports of warplanes and helicopters being used to attack civilians, and human rights groups estimated that at least 220 protesters have been killed.
The United Nations Security Council on Tuesday condemned the violence and said those responsible must be held to account. It must quickly come up with more concrete ways to press Libya’s government to stop the attacks on its people and move to a democratic transition — preferably with Colonel Qaddafi gone.
The Security Council should impose sanctions on Colonel Qaddafi, his family and other officials responsible for the repression, including a freeze on their overseas assets and a travel ban. If the government does not immediately halt the killing, the United Nations should re-impose a ban on all arms sales to Libya.
The Security Council rarely acts quickly, so the United States and the European Union should impose their own sanctions while pressing the United Nations to act. Britain made a good first step when it revoked eight weapons-related export licenses for Libya. On Tuesday, the Arab League suspended Libya’s participation in its meetings.
We were reassured to see some Libyan diplomats rejecting their government’s brutality. Two military pilots refused to fire on their fellow citizens and flew their planes to Malta. All should be granted safe haven.
The United Nations high commissioner for human rights says Colonel Qaddafi’s use of lethal force may constitute crimes against humanity. We agree. There needs to be a thorough investigation.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 05:00 PM | Permalink

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/europe/25assange.html
February 24, 2011
London Court Grants Swedish Request to Extradite Assange
By RAVI SOMAIYA [UK] [London] [EU3] [Wikileaks co founder, Julian Assange] [ordered extradited to Sweden by UK court] [*]
LONDON —A British court on Thursday ordered Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, to be extradited to Sweden to face accusations of sexual abuse. His lawyers have seven days to appeal the ruling and immediately indicated that they would so.
Mr. Assange, dressed in the blue suit he has worn to previous hearings, sat impassively as the decision was read. He is currently free on bail and the court continued that, subject to conditions which were being discussed.
Judge Howard Riddle, in his ruling, said that allegations brought by two women qualified as extraditable offenses and that the warrant seeking Mr. Assange’s return to Sweden for questioning was valid.
The verdict marks a turning point in the three-month battle in the British courts and the media against what Mr. Assange, his legal team and his celebrity supporters say is a

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/europe/25assange.html
February 24, 2011
London Court Grants Swedish Request to Extradite Assange
By RAVI SOMAIYA [UK] [London] [EU3] [Wikileaks co founder, Julian Assange] [ordered extradited to Sweden by UK court] [*]
LONDON —A British court on Thursday ordered Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, to be extradited to Sweden to face accusations of sexual abuse. His lawyers have seven days to appeal the ruling and immediately indicated that they would so.
Mr. Assange, dressed in the blue suit he has worn to previous hearings, sat impassively as the decision was read. He is currently free on bail and the court continued that, subject to conditions which were being discussed.
Judge Howard Riddle, in his ruling, said that allegations brought by two women qualified as extraditable offenses and that the warrant seeking Mr. Assange’s return to Sweden for questioning was valid.
The verdict marks a turning point in the three-month battle in the British courts and the media against what Mr. Assange, his legal team and his celebrity supporters say is a conspiracy to stop WikiLeaks and its campaign to expose government and corporate secrets.
The case has been fought against the backdrop of the group’s highest-profile operation yet — the release of a quarter of a million confidential American diplomatic cables that became the basis of articles by news organizations worldwide, including The New York Times.
WikiLeaks supporters, many of whom contend that the case against Mr. Assange is retribution for the cables’ release, have mobbed courthouses over the course of six acrimonious hearings, chanting, “We love you, Julian.” Mr. Assange was initially denied bail and briefly jailed after defying a judge’s request to provide an address.
Swedish prosecutors argued that Mr. Assange, a 39-year-old Australian, must return to Stockholm to face accusations by two women who say that he sexually abused them last August. Under Sweden’s strict sexual-crimes laws, he is accused of two counts of sexual molestation, one count of unlawful coercion and one count of rape. His accusers, both WikiLeaks volunteers, have said that their sexual encounters with Mr. Assange started out as consensual but turned nonconsensual.
Mr. Assange has said the accusations are “incredible lies,” and he has referred to Sweden as “the Saudi Arabia of feminism.”
Judge Riddle said on Thursday that if there have been abuses in Sweden, “the right place for these to be examined and remedied is in the Swedish trial system.”
Mr. Assange has also denied accusations by the Swedish authorities that he fled the country in September rather than surrender to the police; he says he left Sweden with permission. And he has denounced the leaks of two Swedish police documents that provided graphic details of the accusations.
Mr. Assange, and his lawyers have signaled their intent to take their fight to Britain’s highest courts, and even to the European Court of Human Rights. In adjourning a hearing earlier this month to make his decision, Judge Riddle said with a note of resignation that whatever he decided would “perhaps inevitably be appealed.”
The long and costly legal battle has left Mr. Assange isolated in the country house of a wealthy friend, and he is electronically monitored as a condition of his bail.
During the legal fight, many of his closest colleagues have defected from WikiLeaks, and a dozen of them formed a rival Web site, OpenLeaks. The United States Justice Department, meanwhile, has subpoenaed his Twitter account as part of an investigation that could lead to espionage charges.
In one of the frequent interviews from his friend’s house, Mr. Assange compared himself to the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. In a recorded speech played this month at a rally in Melbourne, Australia, his adopted hometown, he went further, comparing the struggles of WikiLeaks to those of African-Americans who fought for equal rights in the 1950s, of protesters who sought an end to the Vietnam War in the ‘60s and of the feminist and environmental movements. “For the Internet generation,” he said, “this is our challenge, and this is our time.”
Mr. Assange is also working on his autobiography, which he has said will be worth $1.7 million in publishing deals. “I don’t want to write this book, but I have to,” he said in a December interview with The Sunday Times of London, explaining that his legal costs had reached more than $300,000. “I need to defend myself and to keep WikiLeaks afloat.”
The book, he said, will detail his “global struggle to force a new relationship between the people and their governments.” He said he hoped the book, due out in April, “will become one of the unifying documents of our generation.” [dear lord this guy sounds like a pompous arse] [*]
This month, in another fund-raising effort, he organized what he called a “dinner for free speech,” encouraging online supporters to donate to his defense and dine with friends while watching a video message he had recorded. On a Web site to promote the idea, where he was pictured holding a wine glass aloft, he was quoted as declaring, “There are four things that cannot be concealed for long, the sun, the moon, the truth — and dessert!”
WikiLeaks, though unable to process and release new material, has continued to post classified United States diplomatic cables from the cache of the more than 250,000 it has obtained. Recent examples have included documents concerning the opulent lifestyle of the family of former President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia. The documents were widely disseminated during the revolution that ousted Mr. Ben Ali and started a wave of protests in the Arab world.
In recent weeks, some of Mr. Assange’s supporters, eager to see WikiLeaks operating with its founder’s full attention, have been echoing a question asked by a judge at one of the initial hearings in the case. “If he is so keen to clear his name,” the judge, Justice Duncan Ouseley, asked in December, “what stops a voluntary return to Sweden?”
Mr. Assange told friends in Britain he feared that if he returned to Sweden he would be extradited to the United States and perhaps be detained at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, or executed. But one of his former WikiLeaks colleagues said in an interview that he thought Mr. Assange’s reason was more mundane.
The colleague, Daniel Domscheit-Berg, who is one of the OpenLeaks founders, told reporters last week that when Mr. Assange first heard about the sexual abuse allegations in late August, “he was not concerned about the United States.”
“He was very scared of going to prison in Sweden,” Mr. Domscheit-Berg said, “which he thought might happen.” Such charges carry a maximum sentence of four years and no minimum sentence.
Richard Berry contributed reporting from Paris.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:59 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/middleeast/24briefs-gaza.html
February 24, 2011
Israel Strikes Gaza After Rocket Attack on Israeli City
By ISABEL KERSHNER [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [flareup in Gaza] [followup] [I think many of us have been waiting for this] [*]
A rocket fired from Gaza on Wednesday struck the southern Israeli city of Beersheba for the first time in two years, damaging one house but causing no physical injury, the Israeli police said. Israel carried out an airstrike soon after that in northern Gaza against what the military said was a rocket-firing squad.

[full piece may be found above the jump] [*]

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:59 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/middleeast/24arabs.html
February 23, 2011
Upheaval Jolts Israel and Raises New Worry
By STEVEN ERLANGER [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [understandably, the Israelis are nervously watching the contagion of Jamine Revolution and Iran’s recent provocations] [followup] [*]
CASABLANCA, Morocco — The old certainties of the Middle East have been upended, and Israel finds many of its most reliable partners buffeted or blown away by popular agitation from below. Egypt was long one of Israel’s most important allies, and ties were quietly close to Tunisia. With demonstrations for change also in Jordan, Bahrain and Morocco, Israel finds itself floundering.
“Many of our assumptions are broken,” said Mark Heller, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “We are groping here, but with the limited tools we have to understand these phenomena, it is not very promising.” [*]
Israelis worry that Arab democracy movements will ultimately be dominated by extremists, as

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/middleeast/24arabs.html
February 23, 2011
Upheaval Jolts Israel and Raises New Worry
By STEVEN ERLANGER [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [understandably, the Israelis are nervously watching the contagion of Jamine Revolution and Iran’s recent provocations] [followup] [*]
CASABLANCA, Morocco — The old certainties of the Middle East have been upended, and Israel finds many of its most reliable partners buffeted or blown away by popular agitation from below. Egypt was long one of Israel’s most important allies, and ties were quietly close to Tunisia. With demonstrations for change also in Jordan, Bahrain and Morocco, Israel finds itself floundering.
“Many of our assumptions are broken,” said Mark Heller, an analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “We are groping here, but with the limited tools we have to understand these phenomena, it is not very promising.” [*]
Israelis worry that Arab democracy movements will ultimately be dominated by extremists, as happened in Iran after the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah. They worry about the chaotic transition between revolt and democratic stability, if it ever comes. They see Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, even if it remains a minority of Egyptian opinion, as pressing for more solidarity with the Palestinians and Hamas, the Palestinian branch of the Brotherhood. And they fear that Israel’s regional partners in checking Iran are under threat or falling. [it’s certainly a possibility] [*]
Arab analysts counter that new Arab realities and democracies should be welcomed by Israel, because the new Arab generation shares many of the same values as Israel and the West. [another possibility] [*] They argue that there is no support among Egypt’s leaders for the abrogation of the 1979 peace treaty, though it is unpopular with the public, and that the Egyptian Army will not disrupt foreign policy.
“There is no regime that is going to be against or hostile toward Israel in the near term,” said Mohamed Darif, a political scientist at Morocco’s King Hassan II University. “There has been an evolution in the Arab world, among political elites and in civil society. Israel is a fact.”
But new governments are more likely to increase their support for the Palestinian cause, with Egypt already reopening the crossing with Hamas-run Gaza. That new attitude could pressure Israel to do more to find a settlement, some analysts argue. Most others believe that Israel will instead resist, arguing that it cannot make concessions because it is now encircled by more hostile neighbors. [I think this is likely] [*]
“The widespread indignity felt by Egyptians who see themselves as the jailers of Gaza on behalf of Israel and Washington will give way to a realistic policy by which Egyptians use their ties with Israel to push the latter to adopt a more law-abiding stance towards the Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese,” [yes, I agree] [*] Rami G. Khouri, an analyst at the American University of Beirut, wrote for YaleGlobal online. “Egypt will keep peace with Israel, but raise the temperature on issues of profound national concern to Arabs.”
The Israeli-Palestinian issue was not important to the democratic revolts, said Marwan Muasher, a former foreign minister of Jordan and its first ambassador to Israel. But he said it might well be in the future.
“Not solving the Israeli-Palestinian issue today will complicate relations between the emerging Arab governments and their peoples on one side and the West on the other,” said Mr. Muasher, now vice president of the Carnegie Endowment. [*]“In this atmosphere of freedom, it will be very difficult for new Arab governments to ignore the occupation.”
Olivier Roy, a professor at the European University Institute in Italy, also expects a new Egyptian government to have “a more open policy toward the Palestinians, helping Gazans more through aid and transport.” But he argued that “it won’t go very far,” adding that many Israelis on the right prefer a Gaza dependent on Egypt, rather than on Iran.
While Israelis worry about the Muslim Brotherhood, Mr. Roy argued that the revolt surprised and sidelined the group. “The Brotherhood will be very happy to represent some sort of opposition,” he said. “They don’t want to be in the front line.
“So I don’t foresee a grand geostrategic change,” Mr. Roy said. “But the Saudis and Israelis are convinced there will be one.” [*]
Other analysts see a major opportunity for Israel. “It’s a whole new software now being unfolded,” said Gilles Kepel, a scholar of Islam at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris. “I believe there’s a big opening, and the ball is in the Israeli court.”
The Islamists in the region are splitting between the radicals and “the ‘participationists,’ whose role model is the governing party in Turkey,” Mr. Kepel said. “They will have to deal with democracy and see their ideological commitments erode.”
But Israelis are anxious, especially about Jordan, where the king appears shaky, and about both the Muslim Brotherhood and left-wing secular voices in Egypt. The Israeli ambassador to the United States, Michael Oren, praised Egyptian democracy in an Op-Ed piece in The New York Times, but noted with concern that “the reformist leader Ayman Nour declared that ‘the era of Camp David is over.’ ” [well Camp David is humiliating from Egyptian sovereignty standpoint] [*]
Israelis have also noted the emergence in Tahrir Square last week of Yusuf al-Qaradawi, a leading Egyptian Islamic theologian who had been exiled by Mr. Mubarak, and the willingness of the Egyptian Army to let some Iranian warships through the Suez Canal.
It’s not just the Israelis who are worried, noted Mr. Heller in Tel Aviv, pointing to the protest of Tunisian women over the weekend, concerned that their existing freedoms may be at risk in a new democracy from Islamists. [yes, it’s all very uncertain] [*]
The main debate is whether Israel should “hunker down, seeing how unreliable our partners are,” or whether Israel should “take itself off the agenda by making some progress on the Palestinian issue,” [typically Israel hunkers down but they ought to seize the moment this time] [*]Mr. Heller said, which he described as the harder sell. “Of course in Washington the debate is much the same.”
Dore Gold, a former Israeli ambassador to the United Nations and former aide to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said that Arab democracy could make Israel more secure.
“For years, Arab leaders who thought they had legitimacy problems because they were not elected played several chords to the populace — Arab unity, Islamic solidarity, and most important, the struggle against Israel,” he said. “So if you have regimes legitimized by democratic elections and accountable governance, then they will depend less on the conflict for their own internal standing.” [I think this will ultimately happen but it may take many years and require progress to be made on Israel-Palestine] [so the Israelis must act to seize the possiblities] [*]
Even so, “the transition to democracy is full of all kinds of land mines,” Mr. Gold said, arguing that the regional destabilization had helped Iran, which Israel regards as its most important threat.
Iran itself, of course, has been struggling with its own domestic dissent, but Israeli analysts do not see the government as currently vulnerable.
Israelis worry that their country will be encircled by Islamists supported by Iran — Hezbollah to the north, Hamas to the south and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt — and that new security problems will result from a breakdown of intelligence sharing with Egypt and increased smuggling of people, weapons, money and goods across the Sinai. [they’ve always been encircled by potentially hostile forces] [nothing has changed] [*]
Many analysts see a growing role for Turkey, a Muslim democracy with a strong army and ties to the United States, Israel and the West. “Turkey will be a great beneficiary of Arab democratization, as more open, dynamic Arab societies learn from Turkey’s great leap forward” and its “soft and tantalizing brand of Islamo-secularism,” Mr. Khouri wrote.
The Turkish model would be a good outcome for Israel, many Israelis agree. But as they also noted, relations with Turkey have been deeply strained by its new closeness to Muslim neighbors like Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:58 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/africa/25libya.html
February 24, 2011
Qaddafi Massing Forces in Tripoli as Rebellion Spreads
By KAREEM FAHIM and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly upwards of 1,000 have been killed] [Libya seems to be next in the queue?] [Saif Qaddafi’s speech was reminiscent of Mubark’s] [seems to be unraveling but Qaddafi will doubtless kill many thousands before he goes out in hail of bullets or whatever] [followup] [*]
BAIDA, Libya — Forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi were reported to be striking back in several cites surrounding Tripoli [*]on Thursday, as rebellion crept closer to the capital and defections of military officers multiplied. [here comes a blood bath] [*]
The minaret of a mosque in Zawiya, a city 30 miles west of Tripoli where protesters had claimed victory, was blasted by heavy weapons in a morning attack, killing or wounding protesters who had been using the building as a refuge, a witness told The Associated Press by telephone. [*]And in Sabratha, about 50 miles west of the capital where a government

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/africa/25libya.html
February 24, 2011
Qaddafi Massing Forces in Tripoli as Rebellion Spreads
By KAREEM FAHIM and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly upwards of 1,000 have been killed] [Libya seems to be next in the queue?] [Saif Qaddafi’s speech was reminiscent of Mubark’s] [seems to be unraveling but Qaddafi will doubtless kill many thousands before he goes out in hail of bullets or whatever] [followup] [*]
BAIDA, Libya — Forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi were reported to be striking back in several cites surrounding Tripoli [*]on Thursday, as rebellion crept closer to the capital and defections of military officers multiplied. [here comes a blood bath] [*]
The minaret of a mosque in Zawiya, a city 30 miles west of Tripoli where protesters had claimed victory, was blasted by heavy weapons in a morning attack, killing or wounding protesters who had been using the building as a refuge, a witness told The Associated Press by telephone. [*]And in Sabratha, about 50 miles west of the capital where a government crackdown has been under way for several days, gunshots rang out as military troops filled the town, a witness said. With journalists banned from the area, it was impossible to independently verify these reports.
“We are not afraid; we are watching,” said the witness in Sabratha, a doctor reached by telephone. The city was under lockdown, he said, with no stores open, and the buildings of the police and Col. Qaddafi’s revolutionary committees were in ruins, he said, burned by protesters. “What I am sure about,” he said, “is that change is coming.” [*]
Clashes were also reported 130 miles east of the capital near Misurata, a city where opposition forces had claimed control. Tripoli, meanwhile, remained in a state of lockdown, even as Colonel Qaddafi called on thousands of mercenaries and irregular security forces to defend his bastion, in what residents said was a desperate and dangerous turn in the week-old uprising.
Distrustful of even his own generals, Colonel Qaddafi has for years quietly built up this ruthless and loyal force. It is made up of either special brigades headed by his sons, segments of the military loyal to his native tribe and its allies, and legions of African mercenaries he has helped train and equip. Many are believed to have fought elsewhere, in places like Sudan, but he has now called them back. [*]
Witnesses said on Wednesday that thousands of members of this irregular army were massing on roads to the capital, Tripoli, where one resident described scenes evocative of anarchic Somalia: [**]clusters of heavily armed men in mismatched uniforms clutching machine guns and willing to carry out orders to kill Libyans that other police and military units, and even fighter pilots, have refused.
Some residents of Tripoli said they took the gathering army as a sign that the uprising might be entering a decisive stage, with Colonel Qaddafi fortifying his main stronghold in the capital and protesters there gearing up for their first organized demonstration after days of spontaneous rioting and bloody crackdowns. [it sure sounds like it] [if only someone could get to Qaddafi and kill him this might unravel] [*]
The fall of other cities to rebels on Wednesday, including Misurata, left Colonel Qaddafi more embattled — and his opponents emboldened. By Thursday, there were also reports that Zuara, 75 miles west of the capital, was under the control of antigovernment militias. To the east, at least half of the nation’s Mediterranean coast, up to the port of Ra’s Lanuf, appeared to have fallen to opposition forces, a Guardian correspondent in the area reported. Colonel Qaddafi’s hometown of Surt, believed to still be under government control, lay between there and the capital.
“A message comes to every mobile phone about a general protest on Friday in Tripoli,” one resident of Tripoli said. Colonel Qaddafi’s menacing speech to the country on Tuesday — when he vowed to hunt down opponents “house by house” — increased their determination “100 percent,” the resident said.
Dozens of checkpoints operated by a combination of foreign mercenaries and plainclothes militiamen lined the road west of Tripoli for the first time on Wednesday, witnesses said, requiring not only the presentation of official papers but also displays of flag-waving, fist-pumping enthusiasm for Colonel Qaddafi, who has long fashioned himself as a pan-African icon. [yes but they’re working for money, not for Qaddafi] [*]
“You are trying to convince them you are a loyalist,” one resident said, “and the second they realize that you are not, you are done for.”
The overall death toll so far has been impossible to determine. Human rights groups say they have confirmed about 300 deaths, though witnesses suggested the number was far larger. On Wednesday, Franco Frattini, the foreign minister of Italy — the former colonial power with longstanding ties — said that nationwide more than 1,000 people were probably dead in the strife. [*]
Egyptian officials said Wednesday that nearly 30,000 people — mostly Egyptians working in Libya — had fled across their border. People fleeing west into Tunisia said the rebellion was now taking off far from its origins just a week ago in the eastern city of Benghazi, Libya’s second largest city, which fell over the weekend. [*]
There were reports for the first time of protests in the southern city of Sabha, considered a Qaddafi stronghold. [**]
Protesters had claimed victory in Zawiya, where local army units are said to have joined them. In Sabratha, home of an important Roman archaeological site, witnesses had reported a heavy deployment of machine-gun toting foreign mercenaries and Qaddafi loyalists known as revolutionary committees.
“The revolutionary committees are trying to kill everyone who is against Qaddafi,” said a doctor fleeing Sabratha at the Tunisian border, declining to give his name for fear of reprisals if he returned. [*]
In the latest blow to the Libyan leader, a cousin who is one of his closest aides, Ahmed Gadhaf al-Dam, announced on Thursday that he has defected to Egypt in protest against the regime’s bloody crackdown against the uprising, denouncing what he called "grave violations to human rights and human and international laws,” [*]The A.P. reported.
But amid spreading rebellion and growing defections by top officials, diplomats and segments of the regular army, Colonel Qaddafi’s preparations for a defense of Tripoli also reframed the question of who might still be enforcing his rule. It is a puzzle that military analysts say reflects the singular character of the society he has shaped — half tribal, half police state — for the past 41 years.
“It is all shadow and mirrors and probably a great deal of corruption as well,” said Paul Sullivan, a professor at Georgetown who has studied the Libyan military.
Colonel Qaddafi, who took power in a military coup, has always kept the Libyan military too weak and divided to do the same thing to him. About half its relatively small 50,000-member army is made up of poorly trained and unreliable conscripts, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. [*]
Many of its battalions are organized along tribal lines, ensuring their loyalty to their own clan rather than to top military commanders — a pattern evident in the defection of portions of the army to help protesters take the eastern city of Benghazi.
Colonel Qaddafi’s own clan dominates the air force and the upper level of army officers, and they are believed to have remained loyal to him, in part because his clan has the most to lose from his ouster.
Other clans, like the large Warfalla tribe, have complained that they have been shut out of the top ranks, Professor Sullivan noted, which may help explain why they were among the first to turn on Colonel Qaddafi. [*]
Untrusting of his officers, Colonel Qaddafi built up an elaborate paramilitary force — accompanied by special segments of the regular army that report primarily to his family. It is designed to check the army and in part to subdue his own population. At the top of that structure is his roughly 3,000-member revolutionary guard corps, which mainly guards him personally. [*]
Then there are the militia units controlled by Colonel Qaddafi’s seven sons. A cable from the United States Embassy in Libya released by WikiLeaks described his son Khamis’s private battalion as the best equipped in the Libyan Army.
His brother Sa’ad has reportedly used his private battalion to help him secure business deals. And a third brother, Muatassim, is Colonel Qaddafi’s national security adviser. In 2008 he asked for $2.8 billion to pay for a battalion of his own, to keep up with his brothers.
But perhaps the most significant force that Colonel Qaddafi has deployed against the current insurrection is one believed to consist of about 2,500 mercenaries from countries like Chad, Sudan and Niger that he calls his Islamic Pan African Brigade. [*]
Colonel Qaddafi began recruiting for his force years ago as part of a scheme to bring the African nations around Libya into a common union, and the mercenaries he trained are believed to have returned to Sudan and other bloody conflicts around Africa. But from the accounts of many witnesses Colonel Qaddafi is believed to have recalled them — and perhaps others — to help suppress the uprising.
Since the Libyan military withdrew from the eastern border, Egyptian officials said, tens of thousands of Egyptians — many of whom had worked in Libya’s oil-propelled economy — have fled back to Egypt. About 4,200 crossed over on Sunday, a similar number on Monday, and about 20,000 on Tuesday, when border security collapsed.
Thousands of Egyptian refugees also crossed the western border into Tunis on Thursday, reporting food shortages. Several described a confused and chaotic picture of the situation in western Libya. While they said that some towns were now under control of popular committees, they didnt know if they were aliged with the government or the rebels. In Egypt, the authorities said the migrants brought the bodies of three people killed in the crackdown on Benghazi, five people wounded by bullets and 14 others who were taken to a hospital with serious injuries. Many complained that they had been attacked and robbed by the mercenaries, officials said.
Mustafa Said Ahmed, 26-year-old accountant who had worked in Benghazi, said in an interview that he saw 11 people killed by the mercenaries in “a massacre” after the noon prayer last Friday. [*]
The country’s long-serving interior minister, Gen. Abdel Fattah Younes al-Abidi, said Wednesday that he had decided to resign after the people of Benghazi were shot down with machine guns.
In an interview with CNN, he said he had argued against Colonel Qaddafi’s intention to use airplanes to bomb that city, the nation’s second largest, warning that it would kill thousands. State media, however, claimed he had been kidnapped by “gangs.” [*]
The justice minister has already resigned for similar reasons. Two Libyan bombers diverted to Malta rather than bomb civilians, and on Wednesday a Libyan newspaper reported that a third Libyan military pilot had downed his bomber in the eastern province rather than carry out a mission to bomb Benghazi.
After nightfall on Wednesday, witnesses reported sporadic bursts of gunfire around Tripoli neighborhoods. But they said the streets seemed eerily deserted. Green Square, which had been a rallying point for pro-Qaddafi forces, had only a few hundred left in it. And the state television headquarters, which had been heavily guarded, was left almost unattended.[*]
Elsewhere, there were signs that Colonel Qaddafi’s forces were refortifying. For the first time, witnesses said, at least four army tanks had rolled into the streets of the capital.
Kareem Fahim reported from Baida, Libya, and David D. Kirkpatrick from the Tunisian border with Libya. Reporting was contributed by Sharon Otterman, Mona El-Naggar, and Neil MacFarquhar - from Cairo.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:57 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/middleeast/24saudis.html
February 23, 2011
Arab Unrest Propels Iran as Saudi Influence Declines
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN [Bahrain] [Persian Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [somewhat complex by virtue of Sunni monarchy ruling over Shi’a majority] [after recent violent disruption of Pearl Square or roundabout, the protestors managed to take it back?] [use psci 355-455] [meanwhile, things continue on slow boil] [Iran using unrest as opportunity—this will freak out Sunni Arab regimes in region (Saudi, Bahrain, others)] [*]
MANAMA, Bahrain — The popular revolts shaking the Arab world have begun to shift the balance of power in the region, bolstering Iran’s position while weakening and unnerving its rival, Saudi Arabia, regional experts said. [?] [I’m not so sure but it’s perceptions that matter] [*]
While it is far too soon to write the final chapter on the uprisings’ impact, Iran has already benefited from the ouster or undermining of Arab leaders who were its strong adversaries and has begun to project its growing influence, the analysts said. [*]This week Iran sent two

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/middleeast/24saudis.html
February 23, 2011
Arab Unrest Propels Iran as Saudi Influence Declines
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN [Bahrain] [Persian Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [somewhat complex by virtue of Sunni monarchy ruling over Shi’a majority] [after recent violent disruption of Pearl Square or roundabout, the protestors managed to take it back?] [use psci 355-455] [meanwhile, things continue on slow boil] [Iran using unrest as opportunity—this will freak out Sunni Arab regimes in region (Saudi, Bahrain, others)] [*]
MANAMA, Bahrain — The popular revolts shaking the Arab world have begun to shift the balance of power in the region, bolstering Iran’s position while weakening and unnerving its rival, Saudi Arabia, regional experts said. [?] [I’m not so sure but it’s perceptions that matter] [*]
While it is far too soon to write the final chapter on the uprisings’ impact, Iran has already benefited from the ouster or undermining of Arab leaders who were its strong adversaries and has begun to project its growing influence, the analysts said. [*]This week Iran sent two warships through the Suez Canal for the first time since its revolution in 1979, and Egypt’s new military leaders allowed them to pass.
Saudi Arabia, an American ally and a Sunni nation that jousts with Shiite Iran for regional influence, has been shaken. King Abdullah on Wednesday signaled his concern by announcing a $10 billion increase in welfare spending to help young people marry, buy homes and open businesses, a gesture seen as trying to head off the kind of unrest that fueled protests around the region. [*]
King Abdullah then met with the king of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, to discuss ways to contain the political uprising by the Shiite majority there. The Sunni leaders in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain accuse their Shiite populations of loyalty to Iran, a charge rejected by Shiites who say it is intended to stoke sectarian tensions and justify opposition to democracy. [that’s certainly true] [*]
The uprisings are driven by domestic concerns. But they have already shredded a regional paradigm in which a trio of states aligned with the West supported engaging Israel and containing Israel’s enemies, including Hamas and Hezbollah, [*]experts said. The pro-engagement camp of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia is now in tatters. Hosni Mubarak of Egypt has been forced to resign, King Abdullah of Jordan is struggling to control discontent in his kingdom and Saudi Arabia has been left alone to face a rising challenge to its regional role.
“I think the Saudis are worried that they’re encircled — Iraq, Syria, Lebanon; Yemen is unstable; Bahrain is very uncertain,” said Alireza Nader, an expert in international affairs with the RAND Corporation. [I’d agree] [but that doesn’t mean Iran has benefitted at Saudi’s expense] [*] “They worry that the region is ripe for Iranian exploitation. Iran has shown that it is very capable of taking advantage of regional instability.”
“Iran is the big winner here,” said a regional adviser to the United States government who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters. [nonsense] [what evidence] [I think there’s little doubt Iran is enjoying the show but I think its leaders are also terrified the worm has turned for them too?] [*]
Iran’s circumstances could change, experts cautioned, if it overplayed its hand or if popular Arab movements came to resent Iranian interference in the region. And it is by no means assured that pro-Iranian groups would dominate politics in Egypt, Tunisia or elsewhere.
For now, Iran and Syria are emboldened. Qatar and Oman are tilting toward Iran, and Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain and Yemen are in play.
“If these ‘pro-American’ Arab political orders currently being challenged by significant protest movements become at all more representative of their populations, they will for sure become less enthusiastic about strategic cooperation with the United States,” Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, former National Security Council staff members, wrote in an e-mail. [*]
They added that at the moment, Iran’s leaders saw that “the regional balance is shifting, in potentially decisive ways, against their American adversary and in favor of the Islamic Republic.” Iran’s standing is stronger in spite of its challenges at home, with a troubled economy, high unemployment and a determined political opposition. [I think that’s a potential but not happened yet] [and they have to worry about contagion in Iran] [*]
The United States may also face challenges in pressing its case against Iran’s nuclear programs, some experts asserted.
“Recent events have also taken the focus away from Iran’s nuclear program and may make regional and international consensus on sanctions even harder to achieve,” [in terms of mass publics but not in terms of Israel or US] [they are both still watching closely] [*] Mr. Nader said. Iran’s growing confidence is based on a gradual realignment that began with the aftershocks of the Sept. 11 attacks. By ousting the Taliban in Afghanistan, and then Saddam Hussein in Iraq, the United States removed two of Iran’s regional enemies who worked to contain its ambitions. Today, Iran is a major player in both nations, an unintended consequence.
Iran demonstrated its emboldened attitude this year in Lebanon when its ally, Hezbollah, forced the collapse of the pro-Western government of Saad Hariri. Mr. Hariri was replaced with a prime minister backed by Hezbollah, a bold move that analysts say was undertaken with Iran’s support. [its emboldened attitude began before the Jasmine Revolution!] [X cannot logically cause Y unless X preceded Y!!!] [*]
“Iraq and Lebanon are now in Iran’s sphere of influence with groups that have been supported by the hard-liners for decades,” said Muhammad Sahimi, an Iran expert in Los Angeles who frequently writes about Iranian politics. “Iran is a major player in Afghanistan. Any regime that eventually emerges in Egypt will not be as hostile to Hamas as Mubarak was, and Hamas has been supported by Iran. That may help Iran to increase its influence there even more.”
Iran could also benefit from the growing assertiveness of Shiites in general. Shiism is hardly monolithic, and Iran does not speak on behalf of all Shiites. But members of that sect are linked by faith and by their strong sense that they have been victims of discrimination by the Sunni majority. Events in Bahrain illustrate that connection well. [yes, it could] [but hasn’t yet] [*]
Bahrain has about 500,000 citizens, 70 percent of them Shiite. The nation has been ruled by a Sunni family since it was captured from the Persians in the 18th century. The Shiites have long argued that they are discriminated against in work, education and politics. Last week, they began a public uprising calling for democracy, which would bring them power. The government at first used lethal force to try to stop the opposition, killing seven. It is now calling for a dialogue while the protesters, turning out in huge numbers, are demanding the government’s resignation. [absolutely] [so the al Kalifa family might want to be careful about such descriminatioin] [*]
But demonstrators have maintained their loyalty to Bahrain. The head of the largest Shiite party, Al Wefaq, said that the party rejected Iran’s type of Islamic government. [*]On Tuesday, a leading member of the party, Khalil Ebrahim al-Marzooq, said he was afraid that the king was trying to transform the political dispute into a sectarian one. He said there were rumors the king would open the border with Saudi Arabia and let Sunni extremists into the country to attack the demonstrators.
“The moment that any border opens by the government, means the other borders will open,” he said. “You don’t expect people will see their similar sect being killed and not interfere. We will not call them.”
But, he said, they will come.
Nadim Audi contributed reporting.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:56 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/23/AR2011022307152.html
Thousands rally day after clashes in Yemen capital
By Amhed Al-Haj
Thursday, February 24, 2011; A08 [Yemen] [Middle East] [Tunisia’s Jasmine revlution spread to Egypt to?][broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [use psci 355-455, psci 469] [overflow in Yemen] [followup] [Yemen is tremendously complicated due to GSAVE there?] [*]
SANAA, YEMEN - Thousands streamed into a square in Yemen's capital, Sanaa, on Wednesday, trying to bolster anti-government demonstrators after club-wielding backers of President Ali Abdullah Saleh tried to drive them out.
One person was killed and at least 12 wounded in the clashes late Tuesday near Sanaa University, medics said. A local human rights group and Amnesty International gave a higher toll, saying two people were killed and 18 hurt. [*]
"This disturbing development indicates that the heavy-handed tactics which we have seen the security forces using with lethal effect against protesters in the south of Yemen are increasingly being employed elsewhere," said Philip Luther, Amnesty International's deputy director for the Middle East and North Africa. "If the authorities continue in this manner, more demonstrators will inevitably be killed."
Seven legislators resigned from Saleh's ruling General People's Congress party because of the

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/23/AR2011022307152.html
Thousands rally day after clashes in Yemen capital
By Amhed Al-Haj
Thursday, February 24, 2011; A08 [Yemen] [Middle East] [Tunisia’s Jasmine revlution spread to Egypt to?][broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [use psci 355-455, psci 469] [overflow in Yemen] [followup] [Yemen is tremendously complicated due to GSAVE there?] [*]
SANAA, YEMEN - Thousands streamed into a square in Yemen's capital, Sanaa, on Wednesday, trying to bolster anti-government demonstrators after club-wielding backers of President Ali Abdullah Saleh tried to drive them out.
One person was killed and at least 12 wounded in the clashes late Tuesday near Sanaa University, medics said. A local human rights group and Amnesty International gave a higher toll, saying two people were killed and 18 hurt. [*]
"This disturbing development indicates that the heavy-handed tactics which we have seen the security forces using with lethal effect against protesters in the south of Yemen are increasingly being employed elsewhere," said Philip Luther, Amnesty International's deputy director for the Middle East and North Africa. "If the authorities continue in this manner, more demonstrators will inevitably be killed."
Seven legislators resigned from Saleh's ruling General People's Congress party because of the situation in the country and said they will form an independent bloc, according to a member of parliament, Abdul-Aziz Jabbari. The resignations raise to nine [*]the number of legislators who have left the party since protests began.
In the Red Sea port of Hodeida, Saleh supporters attacked a group of anti-government demonstrators, injuring at least 10, according to activists who were in the protest.
Security forces in the southern port of Aden used tear gas and fired bullets in the air to disperse hundreds of protesters, officials said.
The U.S.-backed Saleh, in power for 32 years, has said that he will step down after national elections are held in 2013. But a widening protest movement, inspired by successful uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, is demanding that he leave office now. [*]
- Associated Press © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:55 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/asia/23india.html
February 22, 2011
Highway in India Offers Solution to Land Fights
By JIM YARDLEY [India] [South Asia] [India’s masses and some of its less fortunate states where poverty still reigns supreme] [with India becoming integrated into the global economy, despite an array of issues that has appeared, India is becoming less stratified all the time?] [followup] [just feeding its masses is a major issue] [use psci 350] [followup] [*]
JIKARPUR, India — When the state of Uttar Pradesh announced plans to confiscate farmland for a toll road to the Taj Mahal, a grimly predictable plotline ensued. Protesting farmers, angry over low compensation, blocked road work. Frustration boiled into fatal clashes with the police. Then opposition politicians arrived to pillory the state government and pose for photos with farmers.
Next, though, came something less predictable. Rather than the usual standoff, the state’s chief minister increased payments to farmers and offered them annuities for the next three decades. The new policy also gave farmers stakes in residential developments being built alongside the toll road, known as the Yamuna Expressway, and promised jobs connected to the project.
Today, the Yamuna Expressway is again under construction, and if some farmers are still

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/asia/23india.html
February 22, 2011
Highway in India Offers Solution to Land Fights
By JIM YARDLEY [India] [South Asia] [India’s masses and some of its less fortunate states where poverty still reigns supreme] [with India becoming integrated into the global economy, despite an array of issues that has appeared, India is becoming less stratified all the time?] [followup] [just feeding its masses is a major issue] [use psci 350] [followup] [*]
JIKARPUR, India — When the state of Uttar Pradesh announced plans to confiscate farmland for a toll road to the Taj Mahal, a grimly predictable plotline ensued. Protesting farmers, angry over low compensation, blocked road work. Frustration boiled into fatal clashes with the police. Then opposition politicians arrived to pillory the state government and pose for photos with farmers.
Next, though, came something less predictable. Rather than the usual standoff, the state’s chief minister increased payments to farmers and offered them annuities for the next three decades. The new policy also gave farmers stakes in residential developments being built alongside the toll road, known as the Yamuna Expressway, and promised jobs connected to the project.
Today, the Yamuna Expressway is again under construction, and if some farmers are still not satisfied, the project is now regarded as a tentative sign of progress in India’s wrenching fights over land, one of the most serious yet seemingly intractable challenges facing the country.
Angry confrontations between farmers and business interests occur in every corner of India, yet India’s coalition national government is deadlocked on reforming land acquisition laws written in 1894 during the British Raj.
The political paralysis has only deepened public cynicism about the ability of Indian politicians to get things done on critical national issues. But the Yamuna Expressway may point to a more promising trend. Even as the national government is stalled, some of India’s poorest states, facing rising public pressure to deliver good governance and economic growth, are making progress.
“Several of the state governments that normally you would think of as incompetent and ungovernable are the ones taking new initiatives,” said Himanshu, a social scientist at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, who studies regional politics.
He said the key to Uttar Pradesh’s new land policy was recognizing that farmers needed a future livelihood, not just a one-time payoff. “Land is not just an asset you can dispose of,” he said. “It is an income stream for them.”
Politically, any improvement in governing by India’s poorest states would have a significant national impact and help reduce the grinding inequity that exists beneath India’s economic rise. Already, economic growth in the impoverished state of Bihar has risen sharply after its reform-minded chief minister, Nitish Kumar, improved services and cracked down on lawbreaking.
Uttar Pradesh, with nearly 200 million people, is one of the poorest places in the world and has long been awash in corruption allegations under the chief minister, Mayawati, who has spent millions of dollars in public funds building statues of herself. But facing a re-election campaign next year, Ms. Mayawati has appeared to pivot, focusing on development projects, like ambitious highway plans.
Many analysts say voters are beginning to compare the performance of their state government with those in neighboring states — and to demand results. Officials in Uttar Pradesh, who were initially criticized for their handling of the Yamuna Expressway project, now boast that their land policy is unmatched in India.
“This is the most liberal policy in the country,” said Vijay Shankar Pandey, a spokesman for the Uttar Pradesh government. “This is not giving compensation alone but also rehabilitation. In some cases people lose all their land, so they have to be provided some alternative kind of living.”
Anyone handicapping India’s chances of becoming one of the world’s most important economies inevitably points to infrastructure as a glaring weakness. New highways, new ports and new rail links are all needed — yet progress is halting at best.
Less than two years ago, India’s roads minister, Kamal Nath, pledged to pave an average of 12 miles of new highway every day. Instead, Mr. Nath was transferred to another ministry last month amid questions about corruption and mismanagement; in 2010, Mr. Nath’s ministry managed to pave less than four miles of highway a day.
The Yamuna Expressway is intended to connect the national capital, New Delhi, with Agra and the country’s most famous tourist attraction, the Taj Mahal, a distance of 126 miles. The existing highway offers a kidney-rattling experience that can take four to nine hours, depending on traffic. The Yamuna Expressway promises to reduce the drive to roughly two hours, while developers are also planning six residential and commercial developments along the route.
But problems erupted last August after farmers in Jikarpur blocked work, complaining that their land compensation was far lower than that paid to farmers on the outskirts of New Delhi.
Moreover, farmers were doubly outraged when they found that prices for apartment space in the proposed residential developments were substantially higher than what they got for their land. The anger exploded when farmers clashed with the police, leaving three people dead, including one officer.
The controversy exposed the potential for abuse in what has become India’s template for infrastructure projects — as governments use their powers of eminent domain to acquire land for private developers.
In this case, Jaypee Infratech, a private company, agreed to build the $2.1 billion toll road in exchange for 6,000 acres of roadside property, tax breaks and other benefits. Farmers could not sell their land to Jaypee on the open market, but were expected to accept “market” compensation levels set by the state government. And these rates were set before the land was rezoned from agricultural to commercial use.
“Any agricultural piece of land, when it is turned into industrial or commercial land — that act itself raises the value of the land by a factor of 10 to 100,” said Ashutosh Varshney, a scholar at Brown University who has studied India’s land policies. “So the offer of a ‘market’ price is actually meaningless.”
For Ms. Mayawati, who is India’s most famous politician from the Dalit caste, or untouchables, the scandal created the impression of the state’s using its unfettered powers to push farmers off the land to help a private partner reap huge profits.
Under fire from opponents, she announced her new land policy and also later rezoned all the land along the project as commercial, instantly increasing its value.
Now, farmers along the project site have mixed feelings. A small group of farmers, still protesting for higher compensation at a village called Bhatta Pasrol, clashed with the police this week. In Jikarpur, most farmers have already sold their land for the project, though some are still holding out and even contemplating future protests.
But others are optimistic. Ganga Charan Singh, 65, who joined the initial protests, is now adding a second floor to his brick home. He recently received a payment of 450,000 rupees, or about $10,000, for a small piece of land lost to the road and expects to qualify for the promised annuity.
“We are supposed to get a plot in the project, too,” he said. “We’ll see. Many farmers thought that if they are now giving us money every year, it is not a bad deal. Slowly, people realized there is not much harm. They also realized there is no way out.”
Hari Kumar contributed reporting.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:54 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/middleeast/23bahrain.html
February 22, 2011
Protests in Bahrain Become Test of Wills
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN and NADIM AUDI [Bahrain] [Persian Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [somewhat complex by virtue of Sunni monarchy ruling over Shi’a majority] [after recent violent disruption of Pearl Square or roundabout, the protestors managed to take it back?] [use psci 355-455] [meanwhile, things continue on slow boil] [*]
MANAMA, Bahrain — More than 100,000 demonstrators packed central Pearl Square here on Tuesday in what organizers called the largest pro-democracy demonstration this tiny Persian Gulf nation had ever seen, as the monarchy struggled to hold on to its monopoly on power.
In a nation of only 500,000 citizens, the sheer size of the gathering was astonishing. Tens of thousands of men, women and children, mostly members of the Shiite majority, formed a ribbon of protest for several miles along the Sheik Khalifa bin Salman Highway as they headed for the square, calling for the downfall of the government in a march that was intended to show national unity.
“This is the first time in the history of Bahrain that the majority of people, of Bahraini

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/middleeast/23bahrain.html
February 22, 2011
Protests in Bahrain Become Test of Wills
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN and NADIM AUDI [Bahrain] [Persian Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [somewhat complex by virtue of Sunni monarchy ruling over Shi’a majority] [after recent violent disruption of Pearl Square or roundabout, the protestors managed to take it back?] [use psci 355-455] [meanwhile, things continue on slow boil] [*]
MANAMA, Bahrain — More than 100,000 demonstrators packed central Pearl Square here on Tuesday in what organizers called the largest pro-democracy demonstration this tiny Persian Gulf nation had ever seen, as the monarchy struggled to hold on to its monopoly on power.
In a nation of only 500,000 citizens, the sheer size of the gathering was astonishing. Tens of thousands of men, women and children, mostly members of the Shiite majority, formed a ribbon of protest for several miles along the Sheik Khalifa bin Salman Highway as they headed for the square, calling for the downfall of the government in a march that was intended to show national unity.
“This is the first time in the history of Bahrain that the majority of people, of Bahraini people, got together with one message: this regime must fall,” said Muhammad Abdullah, 43, who was almost shaking with emotion as he watched the swelling crowd.
But for all the talk of political harmony, the past week’s events have left Bahrain as badly divided as it has ever been. Its economy is threatened and its reputation damaged. Standard and Poor’s lowered its credit rating this week, Bahraini authorities canceled next month’s Bahrain Grand Prix Formula One race — a source of pride for the royal family — many businesses remain closed, and tourism is down.
On one side of the divide is a Sunni minority that largely supports King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa as the protector of its interests. On the other is a Shiite majority that knows the changes it seeks will inevitably bring power to its side. The king began releasing some political prisoners on Tuesday night, and the crown prince, Sheik Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, has called for a national dialogue to try to bridge differences, preserve the monarchy and unite the nation.
But so far there is no substantive dialogue between the sides. There is a test of wills, as the Sunnis fight to hold on to what they have and the Shiites grapple for their fair share after years of being marginalized by an absolute monarchy that has ruled the nation for two centuries.
“I’m really excited, but I don’t know what is going to happen,” said Fatima Amroum, a 25-year-old woman in a black abaya who was quietly texting as she watched the procession on Tuesday. “I’m a little scared of uncertainty; we might get what we demand, but freedom will be chaotic at the beginning.”
The days of protest and repression have mostly been about the Shiites speaking up and the Sunnis cracking down. But on Monday night, in the wealthy neighborhood of Juffair, tens of thousands of pro-government demonstrators poured into Al Fateh Grand Mosque to express their support for the embattled king.
The pro-government crowd borrowed some of the opposition’s slogans, including “no Sunni, no Shia, only Bahraini.” But that was where the call for unity started and ended.
This was an affluent crowd, far different from the mostly low-income Shiites who took to the streets to demand a constitutional monarchy, an elected government and a representative Parliament. The air was scented with perfume, and people drove expensive cars. In a visceral demonstration of the distance between Sunni and Shiite, the crowd cheered a police helicopter that swooped low, a symbol of the heavy-handed tactics that have been used to intimidate the Shiites.
“We love King Hamad and we hate chaos,” said Hannan al-Abdallah, 22, as she joined the pro-government rally. “This is our country and we’re looking after it.”
Ali al-Yaffi, 29, drove to the pro-government demonstration with friends in his shiny white sport utility vehicle. He was angry and distrustful. “The democracy they have been asking for is already here,” he said. “But the Shias, they have their ayatollahs, and whatever they say, they will run and do it. If they tell them to burn a house, they will. I think they have a clear intention to disrupt this country.”
On that point there is agreement: the Shiite opposition does want to disrupt, but with peaceful protests aimed at achieving its demands. The public here has learned the lessons of Egypt’s popular uprising and the power of peaceful opposition.
“I feel freedom like I never felt it in my life, but I’m also a little worried,” said Hussein al-Haddad, 32, as he marched with the Shiite protesters on Tuesday. “What is going to happen next?”
Last Monday, Shiites tried to hold a “day of rage,” modeled on the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt that forced out autocratic presidents. The police gave no ground, firing on crowds with tear gas and rubber bullets and leaving one man dead, shot in the back. The next day, at the funeral, another man was killed the same way.
The protesters marched into Pearl Square, the symbolic center of Manama, the capital, and set up camp. In the early morning hours, the police raided the camp, killing three men. Then on Friday, a group of unarmed protesters tried to march into the square. The army opened fire, and one young man, Abdul Redha Mohammed Hassan, was left with a bullet in his head. He died Monday and was buried Tuesday.
The army’s attack on unarmed civilians shocked even the government’s supporters, and the military was withdrawn. The demonstrators poured back in, setting up a camp and a speaker’s podium and making it clear that they would not leave until their demands were met. The first demand, now, is the dissolution of the government and an agreement to create a constitutional monarchy.
“They are the ones who made the demands grow bigger,” said Mohammed al-Shakhouri, 51, as he watched a procession of thousands follow the coffin of Mr. Hassan to the cemetery for burial.
The government seems to have accepted that violence will not silence the opposition and has shifted its strategy. It has set up a press center to get its message out and is working with a public relations firm.
The opposition has stuck with its tactic of peaceful protest. On Tuesday, the Shiite political parties, chief among them Al Wefaq, called for the demonstration to start at the Bahrain mall and march into Pearl Square. Even the organizers were surprised as turnout swelled, packing the eastbound side of the highway from the mall to the square.
“It is a revolution,” said Hussein Mohammed, 37, a bookstore owner and volunteer for Al Wefaq. “It is a big revolution. It is unbelievable.”

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:53 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/europe/24italy.html
February 23, 2011
Italy Says Death Toll in Libya Likely More Than 1,000
By RACHEL DONADIO [Italy] [always close to Libya; gets a lot of oil from Libya] [on Libya iteration of Jasmine] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and perhaps 1,000 or more][Saif Qaddafi’s and now two from col. Qaddafi were reminiscent of Mubark’s] [reports of incredible brutality: planes and gunships firing on Libyan people] [followup] [*]
ROME — Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini on Wednesday said the death toll from days of unrest in Libya was likely more than 1,000, and worried that violence there could spark Islamic extremism.
Noting that the situation was chaotic, Mr. Frattini told reporters in Rome that he believed estimates that more than 1,000 Libyan civilians had been killed in the clashes with security forces and government supporters “appear to be true.”
Later, addressing the Italian parliament on Wednesday morning, Mr. Frattini added that he

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/europe/24italy.html
February 23, 2011
Italy Says Death Toll in Libya Likely More Than 1,000
By RACHEL DONADIO [Italy] [always close to Libya; gets a lot of oil from Libya] [on Libya iteration of Jasmine] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and perhaps 1,000 or more][Saif Qaddafi’s and now two from col. Qaddafi were reminiscent of Mubark’s] [reports of incredible brutality: planes and gunships firing on Libyan people] [followup] [*]
ROME — Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini on Wednesday said the death toll from days of unrest in Libya was likely more than 1,000, and worried that violence there could spark Islamic extremism.
Noting that the situation was chaotic, Mr. Frattini told reporters in Rome that he believed estimates that more than 1,000 Libyan civilians had been killed in the clashes with security forces and government supporters “appear to be true.”
Later, addressing the Italian parliament on Wednesday morning, Mr. Frattini added that he was concerned about a rise in “Islamic radicalism” and “the rise of an Islamic emirate” in Eastern Libya, including the Cyrenaica region, which he said was “no longer under the Libyan government’s control.”
“This radical Islamism worries us because it is only a few hundred kilometers from the European Union,” Mr. Frattini said, adding that, “nothing can justify the violent killing of hundreds of innocent civilians.”
Estimates on the death toll in Libya have been difficult to pin down. Human Rights Watch has confirmed roughly 300 deaths in the week-long uprising, but has noted its estimate is conservative because of the difficulty of gathering information from morgues and hospitals during due to intermittent phone service and a near Internet blackout.
Mr. Frattini’s remarks on Libya were the Italian government’s strongest to date. In recent days, critics had called on Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to use his close ties with Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi to pressure him to stop the violence in Libya.
Italy has longstanding ties with Libya, which supplies much of its natural gas. In 2008, under Mr. Berlusconi, the two countries signed an accord in which Italy pledged $5 billion over 20 years in exchange for Libya’s help blocking the flow of illegal immigrants toward Europe and granting favorable treatment for Italian companies seeking to do business in Libya.
But the treaty also includes a clause that critics say could compromise Italy’s role as a key member of NATO in the event of an international intervention against Libya. [*]
The treaty states: “Italy will not use or will not permit the use of its own territories in any hostile act against Libya and Libya will not use, nor permit the use of its own territories in any hostile act against Italy.” [*]
It also states that both countries “should abstain from any form of direct or indirect interference in the internal or external affairs which fall under the jurisdiction of either side, in keeping with the spirit of good neighbors.”

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:52 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/africa/24libya.html
February 23, 2011
Fighting Nears Tripoli, Where Qaddafi Keeps Grip on Power
By KAREEM FAHIM and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly several dozen (now upward of 200) have been killed] [Libya seems to be next in the queue?] [Saif Qaddafi’s speech was reminiscent of Mubark’s] [seems to be unraveling but Qaddafi will doubtless kill many thousands before he goes out in hail of bullets or whatever] [followup] [*]
TOBRUK, Libya — Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya kept his grip on the capital on Wednesday, but large areas of the east of the country remained out of his control amid indications that the fighting had reached the northwest of the country around Tripoli.
Libyans fleeing across the country’s western border into Tunisia reported fighting over the past two nights in the town of Sabratha, home of an important Roman archeological site 50 miles west of Tripoli. Thousands of Libyan forces loyal to Col. Qaddafi have deployed there, according to Reuters. [*]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/africa/24libya.html
February 23, 2011
Fighting Nears Tripoli, Where Qaddafi Keeps Grip on Power
By KAREEM FAHIM and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly several dozen (now upward of 200) have been killed] [Libya seems to be next in the queue?] [Saif Qaddafi’s speech was reminiscent of Mubark’s] [seems to be unraveling but Qaddafi will doubtless kill many thousands before he goes out in hail of bullets or whatever] [followup] [*]
TOBRUK, Libya — Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya kept his grip on the capital on Wednesday, but large areas of the east of the country remained out of his control amid indications that the fighting had reached the northwest of the country around Tripoli.
Libyans fleeing across the country’s western border into Tunisia reported fighting over the past two nights in the town of Sabratha, home of an important Roman archeological site 50 miles west of Tripoli. Thousands of Libyan forces loyal to Col. Qaddafi have deployed there, according to Reuters. [*]
“The revolutionary committees are trying to kill everyone who is against Qaddafi,” said a doctor from Sabratha who had just left the country, but who declined to give his name because he wanted to return. [*]
There were also reports of fighting in Misurata, a provincial center 130 miles west of the capital. A witness said that messages being broadcast from the loudspeakers of local mosques were urging people to attack government opponents, following Colonel Qaddafi’s defiant television address Tuesday night calling for ordinary citizens to assist in eliminating opponents, promising that the “cockroaches” would be tracked and killed “house by house.”
A local radio station that had been broadcasting opposition messages was reported to have been attacked. In the southern city of Sabha, considered a Qaddafi stronghold, large protests were also reported. [but see Italy’s estimates in today’s external] [*]
No certain figures for the toll of the unrest have emerged, but the foreign minister of Italy, which has long and close ties with Libya, said it was likely more than 1,000. The minister, Franco Frattini, also said he worried that the violence could spark Islamic extremism.
In Tripoli, the streets were relatively quiet Wednesday morning, a resident said, but armed mercenaries were still in the streets. A bloody crackdown drove protesters from the streets on Tuesday, and residents had described a state of terror.
“All the government buildings in Tripoli are burned down,” one resident said. “But the mercenaries, they have weapons. The Libyans don’t have weapons, they will kill you.”
High-level defections from Col. Qaddafi’s government continued. The country’s long-serving interior minister, Abdel Fattah Younes al-Abidi, announced his defection to the opposition Tuesday night, urging the Libyan Army to join the people and their “legitimate demands.” State media, however, claimed he had been kidnapped by “gangs.”
Mr. Abidi said Wednesday that he had decided to resign after the people of Benghazi were gunned down with machine guns. In an interview with CNN, he said he had argued with Colonel Qaddafi’s intention to use airplanes to bomb that city, the nation’s second largest, warning it would kill thousands.
After the televised speech by Colonel Qaddafi, thousands of his supporters had converged in the city’s central Green Square on Tuesday night, wearing green bandannas and brandishing large machetes.
Many loaded into trucks headed for the outlying areas of the city, where they occupied traffic intersections and appeared to be massing for neighborhood-to-neighborhood searches.
“It looks like they have been given a green light to kill these people,” one witness said.
Human Rights Watch said it had confirmed 62 deaths in two hospitals after a rampage on Monday night, when witnesses said groups of heavily armed militiamen and mercenaries from other African countries cruised the streets in pickup trucks, spraying crowds with machine-gun fire.
The death toll was probably higher; one witness said militia forces appeared to be using vans to cart away bodies.
But as they clamped down on the capital, Colonel Qaddafi’s security forces did not appear to make any attempt to take back the growing number of towns in the east that had in effect declared their independence and set up informal opposition governments. For now, there is little indication of what will replace the vacuum left by Colonel Qaddafi’s authority in broad parts of the country other than simmering anarchy.
Only around the town of Ajdabiya, south of the revolt’s center in Benghazi, were Colonel Qaddafi’s security forces and militia still clashing with protesters along the road to the colonel’s hometown, Surt.
The widening gap between the capital and the eastern countryside underscored the radically different trajectory of the Libyan revolt from the others that recently toppled Arab autocrats on Libya’s western and eastern borders, in Tunisia and Egypt. [*]
Though the Libyan revolt began with a relatively organized core of longtime government critics in Benghazi, its spread to the capital was swift and spontaneous, outracing any efforts to coordinate the protests.
Colonel Qaddafi has lashed out with a level of violence unseen in either of the other uprisings, [*] partly by importing foreigners without ties to the Libyan people. His four decades of idiosyncratic one-man rule have left the country without any national institutions — not even a unified or disciplined military — that could tame his retribution or provide the framework for a transitional government.
Condemnations of his brutal crackdown have mounted, from Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to the United Nations Security Council to the Arab League, which suspended Libya as a member. High-profile aides and diplomats continued to defect, among them a senior aide to the president’s son, Seif al-Islam Qaddafi and the country’s ambassadors to the United States, India and Bangladesh. [*]
In his television address on Tuesday — his second in two days — Colonel Qaddafi vowed to die as a martyr for his country. “I will fight on to the last drop of my blood,” he said.
Wearing a beige robe and turban and reading at times from his manifesto, the Green Book, Colonel Qaddafi attributed the unrest shaking Libya to foreigners, a small group of people distributing pills, brainwashing and young people’s naïve desire to imitate the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.
He urged citizens to take to the streets and beat back the protesters, and he described himself in sweeping, megalomaniacal terms. “Muammar Qaddafi is history, resistance, liberty, glory, revolution,” he declared.
In Tobruk, an eastern city that joined the uprising almost as soon as it began, a resident watching the speech in the main square reacted by throwing a rock at Colonel Qaddafi’s face as it was broadcast on a large television. And in a cafe not far from Tobruk, Fawzi Labada, a bus driver, looked incredulously at the screen. “He is weak now,” he said. “He’s a liar, a big liar. He will hang.”
In Tripoli, however, the reaction was more chastened. One resident reported the sound of gunfire during the speech — presumably in celebration, he said, but also in warning. “He is saying, ‘If you go to protest, all the shots will be in your chest,’” he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals. [*]
“We are unarmed and his warning is very clear,” he added. “The people are terrified now.”
The gap between Colonel Qaddafi’s stronghold in Tripoli and the insurrection in the east recalled Libya’s pre-1931 past as three different countries — Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica — and underscored the challenge facing its insurrection. [*]
Many analysts have suggested that Colonel Qaddafi seemed to fear the development of any national institutions or networks that might check his power, and he has kept even his military divided into battalions, each loyal mainly to its own officers.
That has set the stage for heavy defections during the revolt — rebels in the east said some government forces had simply abandoned their uniforms to join the cause. But it also means that Libya’s military is unlikely to play the stabilizing role its Tunisian or Egyptian counterparts did.
Foreign companies and Libyan factions focused intensely on the fate of the country’s substantial oil reserves. The Italian oil company Eni confirmed that it had suspended use of a pipeline from Libya to Sicily that provides 10 percent of Italy’s natural gas.
Opponents of Colonel Qaddafi tightened their control of their area around Ajdabiya, an important site in the oil fields of central Libya, said Tawfiq al-Shahbi, a protest organizer in Tobruk.
Tripoli remained under an information blackout, with no Internet access and limited and intermittent phone service. Colonel Qaddafi’s government has sought to block all foreign journalists from entering the country or reporting on the revolt.
But the uprising in the east cracked open the country on Tuesday as the Libyan military retreated from the eastern border with Egypt and foreign journalists poured through. The road from the border to Tobruk appeared to be completely under the control of Colonel Qaddafi’s opponents, and small, ragtag bands of men in worn fatigues ran easygoing checkpoints and flashed victory signs at visitors.
Except for those guards, there was little to suggest an uprising was under way. Shops were open along the road, which was full of traffic, mostly heading out of Libya.
Tobruk residents said neighboring cities — including Dernah, Al Qubaa, Bayda and El Marij — were also quiet, and effectively ruled by the opposition.
The government lost control of Tobruk almost immediately, according to Gamal Shallouf, a marine biologist who has become an informal press officer in the city.
Soldiers took off their uniforms on Friday and Saturday, taking the side of protesters, who burned the police station and another government building, smashing a large stone monument of Colonel Qaddafi’s Green Book. Four people were killed during clashes here, residents said.
Salah Algheriani, who works for the state-owned Gulf Oil company, talked about the sea change in Tobruk, where everyone was suddenly full of loud opinions and hope, including the hope that young people might stop leaving the country for Europe.
“The taste of freedom is very delicious,” he said.
The protests began with a relatively organized network of families in Benghazi who had all lost relatives in a 1996 prison riot. Many were represented by the same lawyer, a prominent Qaddafi critic in the region, and his arrest last week set off their uprising.
But the revolt in Tripoli appears far more genuinely spontaneous and unorganized than the Benghazi uprising or, for that matter, the revolutions that toppled the leaders of Tunisia or Egypt. The lack of organization now raises questions about the ability of the mostly young rebels in the capital to regroup after the Qaddafi government’s retaliation.
Kareem Fahim reported from Tobruk, Libya, and David D. Kirkpatrick from the Tunisian border with Libya. Reporting was contributed by Sharon Otterman, Mona El-Naggar, Neil MacFarquhar and Liam Stack from Cairo.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:51 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/22/AR2011022207193.html
Egyptian military rulers reshuffle cabinet
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; A07 [Egypt] [Jasmine Reveloution begun in Tunisia has spread elsewhere in Arab (and Muslim?) world] [Jasmine Revolution] [followup] [use psci 355-455, 469] [the pharaoh is gone] [what’s next?] [followup] [the “what’s next” continues] [finally some decent coverage of Muslim Brothers without the drama] [caretaker military govt makes move that could be seen as positive: ensure Mubarak regime does not return in slightly different guise] [*]
CAIRO - Egypt's military rulers on Tuesday announced a cabinet reshuffle designed to decrease the power of loyalists of ousted president Hosni Mubarak, their latest concession to pro-democracy activists.
The country's military council, which has governed Egypt since Mubarak resigned on Feb. 11, appointed 11 new ministers, state media reported. [*]
The new ministers include opposition politicians and two Coptic Christians. Their appointment

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/22/AR2011022207193.html
Egyptian military rulers reshuffle cabinet
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; A07 [Egypt] [Jasmine Reveloution begun in Tunisia has spread elsewhere in Arab (and Muslim?) world] [Jasmine Revolution] [followup] [use psci 355-455, 469] [the pharaoh is gone] [what’s next?] [followup] [the “what’s next” continues] [finally some decent coverage of Muslim Brothers without the drama] [caretaker military govt makes move that could be seen as positive: ensure Mubarak regime does not return in slightly different guise] [*]
CAIRO - Egypt's military rulers on Tuesday announced a cabinet reshuffle designed to decrease the power of loyalists of ousted president Hosni Mubarak, their latest concession to pro-democracy activists.
The country's military council, which has governed Egypt since Mubarak resigned on Feb. 11, appointed 11 new ministers, state media reported. [*]
The new ministers include opposition politicians and two Coptic Christians. Their appointment would have been unthinkable during Mubarak's 30-year rule because he reserved all top jobs for members of his National Democratic Party.
Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Justice Minister Mamdouh Marei, all Mubarak loyalists, remain in their posts. Activists have called for their ouster.
- Ernesto Londono © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:50 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/02/23/world/middleeast/international-us-saudi-king.html
February 23, 2011
Saudi King Offers Aid Package to Citizens
By REUTERS
Filed at 7:26 a.m. EST [Saudi Arabia] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Saudis fear Shi’a crescent now more than ever] [presumably the Saudis now understand Jasmine Revolution is much bigger than US throwing Mubarak under buss; it’s about aspiration that have gone unmet for decades if not centuries] [use psci 355-455] [*]
RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi King Abdullah returned home to the world's biggest oil exporter after three months abroad for medical treatment on Wednesday and unveiled a series of benefits for citizens estimated to be worth $35 billion. [he’s been in US and England for medical care] [but even abroad the implications of Jasmine Rev not lost on him] [**]
The benefits include funding to offset high inflation, to help young unemployed people and to support families to get affordable housing and were offered as popular protests over poverty, corruption and repression hit many Arab countries.
Hundreds of men in white robes performed a traditional Bedouin sword dance on carpets

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/02/23/world/middleeast/international-us-saudi-king.html
February 23, 2011
Saudi King Offers Aid Package to Citizens
By REUTERS
Filed at 7:26 a.m. EST [Saudi Arabia] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Saudis fear Shi’a crescent now more than ever] [presumably the Saudis now understand Jasmine Revolution is much bigger than US throwing Mubarak under buss; it’s about aspiration that have gone unmet for decades if not centuries] [use psci 355-455] [*]
RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi King Abdullah returned home to the world's biggest oil exporter after three months abroad for medical treatment on Wednesday and unveiled a series of benefits for citizens estimated to be worth $35 billion. [he’s been in US and England for medical care] [but even abroad the implications of Jasmine Rev not lost on him] [**]
The benefits include funding to offset high inflation, to help young unemployed people and to support families to get affordable housing and were offered as popular protests over poverty, corruption and repression hit many Arab countries.
Hundreds of men in white robes performed a traditional Bedouin sword dance on carpets laid out at Riyadh airport as they prepared to greet the monarch, thought to be 87.
Television presenters wore scarves in the colors of the Saudi flag in coverage termed "the joy of a nation" in celebration of the king, who was standing when he first descended from his plane before taking to a wheelchair.
Before his arrival, state media announced the action plan to help lower- and middle-income Saudis among the 18 million native population. The package included pay rises to offset inflation, unemployment benefits and affordable housing for families. [*]
Political stability in the top OPEC producer is of global concern as Saudi Arabia controls more than a fifth of oil reserves, is a major holder of dollar assets and a vital regional U.S. ally.
The measures did not include political reforms in the absolute monarchy such as elections to municipal councils demanded by liberals and opposition groups. The Gulf Arab state has no elected parliament or political parties and does not tolerate public dissent.
"I think it's good but we need to see more reforms like municipal elections and better regulation. Financial benefits work only if officials can be held responsible," said a Saudi political analyst, who declined to be named. [*]
Saudis were critical of the announcement on Twitter. "We want rights, not gifts," said Fahad Aldhafeeri in one typical tweet.
Abdullah travelled to the United States in November for surgery to a herniated disk which caused blood accumulation around the spine. He has been recuperating in Morocco for the past four weeks.
During his absence, Abdullah's slightly younger half-brother Crown Prince Sultan was in charge, but doubts remain over his health as he was abroad for much of the past two years for illness.
REFORMS NEEDED
Analysts do not expect unrest like in Egypt or Tunisia since the Gulf Arab state sits on more than $400 billion in net foreign assets, but they say Riyadh must address social pressures such as high youth unemployment and housing problems. [well, analysts didn’t expect them in Egypt either?] [so I wouldn’t count on it] [but Saudis have always bought of their people so less likely I suppose] [*]
"Housing and job creation for Saudis are two structural challenges this country is facing," said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi, who put the total value of the king's measures at 140 billion riyals ($37.33 billion).
G20-member Saudi Arabia has outlined spending of 580 billion riyals for 2011 in its third consecutive record budget. The king said last month expenditures would rise in the coming years.
EFG-Hermes estimated the package at around 100 billion riyals, saying it could trigger a rally in a stock market that lost 4 percent over the past week on unrest in Bahrain and the rest of the region.
Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa was among the princes thronging the Tarmac when Abdullah arrived. King Hamad this week promised dialogue and released political prisoners in an effort to mollify protesters, mainly from the majority Shi'ite Muslim community, who are demanding democratic reform.
Saudi Arabia and Western countries see Bahrain's Sunni monarchy as a bulwark against the rising regional influence of non-Arab Shi'ite power Iran. The U.S. Fifth Fleet is stationed in the island state.
Like other Arabs, Saudis watching the fall of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia's Ben Ali Zine al-Abidine have started calling in social media for reforms in the strict Sunni kingdom.
Hundreds of people have backed a Facebook campaign calling for a "day of rage" on March 11 to demand an elected ruler, greater freedom for women and release of political prisoners.
Under the king's measures announced on Saudi TV, the state will pay aid for unemployed young people and tuition fees to study abroad, while waiving loans.
A state program to help Saudis to get affordable housing will be supported alone with 40 billion riyals but the unnamed Saudi analyst said the plan did not fix problems such as that much of the land in the vast desert country is owned by royals.
"It's good to give aid but there is no land available. The land should be returned to the state or otherwise much money would be spent buying back land to build new housing," he said.
The government has been mulling for years a mortgage bill to address the housing issue but analysts say no consensus has been reached on how to fix the land issue.
Riyadh has been keen to show its Western allies there will be no power vacuum despite its octogenarian rulers' health problems. It is not clear if Abdullah will be succeeded by a reformist like himself or a conservative.
(Reporting by Ulf Laessing and Andrew Hammond; Editing by Janet Lawrence)

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/22/AR2011022206595.html
Iran hails warships' mission in Mediterranean
By Ernesto Londono and Thomas Erdbrink
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; A06 [Iran] [Iran is where all this really started back in 2009] [Iran’s thugocracy has kept lid on so far] [not only that but used the events to move Iran warships through Suez (first time since 1979)] [followup] [provocative not just to Israel but Sunni regimes?] [*]
CAIRO - Iranian officials on Tuesday hailed the passage of two warships through Egypt's Suez Canal as a milestone in Iran's effort to play a greater role in maritime affairs.
Israeli officials called it a worrisome provocation at a time of upheaval and deepening tension in the Middle East.
The Alvand frigate, one of the oldest vessels in the Iranian navy's five-ship fleet, became the first Iranian warship to sail into the Mediterranean since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The frigate, built in 1968 and in dire need of repairs, is en route to the Syrian port of Latakia for a training mission and is accompanied by a supply ship. [*]
The Iranian navy last year deployed its newest destroyer, the Jamaran, to fight Somali pirates

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/22/AR2011022206595.html
Iran hails warships' mission in Mediterranean
By Ernesto Londono and Thomas Erdbrink
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, February 23, 2011; A06 [Iran] [Iran is where all this really started back in 2009] [Iran’s thugocracy has kept lid on so far] [not only that but used the events to move Iran warships through Suez (first time since 1979)] [followup] [provocative not just to Israel but Sunni regimes?] [*]
CAIRO - Iranian officials on Tuesday hailed the passage of two warships through Egypt's Suez Canal as a milestone in Iran's effort to play a greater role in maritime affairs.
Israeli officials called it a worrisome provocation at a time of upheaval and deepening tension in the Middle East.
The Alvand frigate, one of the oldest vessels in the Iranian navy's five-ship fleet, became the first Iranian warship to sail into the Mediterranean since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The frigate, built in 1968 and in dire need of repairs, is en route to the Syrian port of Latakia for a training mission and is accompanied by a supply ship. [*]
The Iranian navy last year deployed its newest destroyer, the Jamaran, to fight Somali pirates operating in the Arabian Sea. Another recent mission took the destroyer to Sri Lanka.
Brig. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi, the deputy commander of Iran's military, was quoted by the country's official Islamic Republic News Agency as saying that the Suez transit had succeeded "by the grace of God" and describing Israeli officials' concerns as "negative propaganda."
Israel's vice prime minister, Silvan Shalom, said the timing of the crossing was an unmistakable message from Iran that it is attempting to expand its influence in the region.
"The objective is to signal to the leaders of the Arab world who the new leader is in the Middle East," Shalom said. [*]
Shalom's remarks were the latest in a string of condemnations by Israeli officials, who have been monitoring the ships' movements.
Israel and the United States have accused Iran and Syria of providing support to Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group that fought a war with Israel in 2006. [*]
Israeli warships have traversed the Suez Canal for missions in the Red Sea. In July 2009, Israeli defense officials revealed that a submarine had moved through the canal the previous month as part of a naval drill. The disclosure was seen as a warning to Iran. [*]
The U.S. Navy sends roughly a dozen ships through the Suez Canal each month, according to a recent report by the Congressional Research Service.
londonoe@washpost.com erdbrinkt@washpost.com
Erdbrink reported from Tehran. Special correspondent Joel Greenberg in Jerusalem and correspondent Kathy Lally in Cairo contributed to this report. © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:48 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/gadhafi-vows-he-ll-stay-in-power-despite-widespread-libyan-unrest-1.345033
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/22/11 8:55:11 AM] [*]
Published 17:52 22.02.11
Gadhafi vows he'll stay in power despite widespread Libyan unrest
Libyan leader says in televised address that he is a Bedouin warrior who brought glory to Libyans, says he intends to die in Libya as a martyr. [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [understandably, the Israelis are nervously watching the contagion of Jamine Revolution] [followup] [the latest on Libya] [*]
By News Agencies Tags: Israel news Libya Muammar Gadhafi
Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi said Tuesday in a televised address that he will not step down from power and that he intends on staying in Libya.
Gadhafi vowed to fight protesters demanding his ouster and said that he does not intend on resigning or forfeiting power like other leaders have done, announcing that he intends on dying in Libya as a martyr.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/gadhafi-vows-he-ll-stay-in-power-despite-widespread-libyan-unrest-1.345033
Haaretz
[Accessed 2/22/11 8:55:11 AM] [*]
Published 17:52 22.02.11
Gadhafi vows he'll stay in power despite widespread Libyan unrest
Libyan leader says in televised address that he is a Bedouin warrior who brought glory to Libyans, says he intends to die in Libya as a martyr. [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [understandably, the Israelis are nervously watching the contagion of Jamine Revolution] [followup] [the latest on Libya] [*]
By News Agencies Tags: Israel news Libya Muammar Gadhafi
Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi said Tuesday in a televised address that he will not step down from power and that he intends on staying in Libya.
Gadhafi vowed to fight protesters demanding his ouster and said that he does not intend on resigning or forfeiting power like other leaders have done, announcing that he intends on dying in Libya as a martyr.
Gadhafi said that the image of Libya is being distorted before the world, and described himself as a Bedouin warrior who brought glory to the Libyan people.
The night before amid the crackdown, a defiant Gadhafi appeared on state TV in the early hours Tuesday to show he was still in charge, brandishing a large umbrella and wearing a cap with fur ear flaps, and denying reports he had left the country.
The eruption of turmoil in the capital after a week of protests and bloody clashes in Libya's eastern cities has sharply escalated the challenge to Gadhafi, and his regime has been hit by a string of defections by ambassadors abroad and even some officials at home. His security forces have unleashed the bloodiest crackdown of any Arab country against the wave of protests sweeping the region, which toppled leaders of Egypt and Tunisia. [*]
The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, citing sources inside the country, said Tuesday that at least 250 people have been killed and hundreds more injured in the crackdown on protesters in Libya, though its officials said the true number was not known.
Meanwhile, key Western nations urged the UN Security Council on Tuesday to demand an immediate end to Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi's bloody crackdown on civilian protesters and strongly condemn the violence. [or what?] [the UN can do almost nothing in the short term but threaten and the threats ring hollow] [*]
The UN's most powerful body met behind closed doors Tuesday morning to discuss possible council action, most likely a press statement agreed by all 15 members, as key Libyan diplomats around the world disowned Gadhafi's regime.
Protesters, meanwhile, gathered at some Libyan embassies around the world, including those in Sweden and Serbia. In Stockholm, they were allowed into the embassy, where they raised the flag of the monarchy that was toppled by Muammar Gadhafi's military coup in 1969.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:47 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/asia/23zealand.html
February 22, 2011
Scores Killed in New Zealand Earthquake
By MERAIAH FOLEY [New Zeland] [chronological marker only] [*]
SYDNEY, Australia — Rescue workers spent a cold, rainy night searching through rubble for survivors of a powerful earthquake that struck New Zealand’s second-largest city, Christchurch, on Tuesday, killing at least 65 people.
Photographs and video from Christchurch, a graceful 19th-century city of nearly 400,000 residents, showed people running through the streets, landslides pouring rocks and debris into suburban streets and extensive damage to buildings. Witnesses told of watching the spire of the iconic Christchurch Cathedral come crashing down during an aftershock. One witness called it “the most frightening thing of my entire life,” and television video showed a person clinging to a window in the cathedral’s steeple.
Officials warned that the death toll was likely to rise as scores of people were still missing and feared trapped in the wreckage of several buildings that were flattened by the 6.3 magnitude earthquake or the aftershocks still rocking the city.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/asia/23zealand.html
February 22, 2011
Scores Killed in New Zealand Earthquake
By MERAIAH FOLEY [New Zeland] [chronological marker only] [*]
SYDNEY, Australia — Rescue workers spent a cold, rainy night searching through rubble for survivors of a powerful earthquake that struck New Zealand’s second-largest city, Christchurch, on Tuesday, killing at least 65 people.
Photographs and video from Christchurch, a graceful 19th-century city of nearly 400,000 residents, showed people running through the streets, landslides pouring rocks and debris into suburban streets and extensive damage to buildings. Witnesses told of watching the spire of the iconic Christchurch Cathedral come crashing down during an aftershock. One witness called it “the most frightening thing of my entire life,” and television video showed a person clinging to a window in the cathedral’s steeple.
Officials warned that the death toll was likely to rise as scores of people were still missing and feared trapped in the wreckage of several buildings that were flattened by the 6.3 magnitude earthquake or the aftershocks still rocking the city.
“I think we need to prepare ourselves in this city for a death toll that could be significant,” Mayor Bob Parker told reporters shortly after declaring a state of emergency and ordering the evacuation of the city center. “It’s not going to be good news, and we need to steel ourselves to understand that.”
Hundreds of frightened residents crammed into temporary shelters. Mr. Parker warned residents to prepare for a night without electricity and running water. Food and drinking water were being brought into the city overnight, he said.
The rescue mission was further complicated by repeated strong aftershocks and wet, chilly conditions overnight.
Prime Minister John Key said the extent of the devastation was unknown, but that New Zealand had witnessed “its darkest day,” and one of its worst natural disasters.
“It’s an absolute tragedy for this city, for New Zealand, for the people that we care so much about,” he told TVNZ, the national television broadcaster. “People are just sitting on the side of the road, their heads in their hands. This is a community that is absolutely in agony.”
A number of makeshift triage centers and emergency clinics were set up across the city to handle the influx of injured people. Officials said the city’s largest medical facility, Christchurch Hospital, was bracing for multiple casualties. Some victims have been airlifted to hospitals outside the earthquake zone.
By Tuesday afternoon, officials said there were no ambulances available in the city, all were tied up with urgent calls. Video from the scene showed office workers loading their injured colleagues into station wagons and four-wheel drives because of the lack of emergency vehicles.
The Christchurch Airport was closed and said on its Web site that it would reopen Wednesday morning only for domestic flights.
Video from the scene by 3 News New Zealand showed emergency crews pulling shaken and injured victims from damaged buildings, including one four-story structure, the Pine Gould Guinness building, which was nearly flattened. The top three floors of the building, a 1960s-era structure, had collapsed as terrified workers huddled under desks. Video showed one woman clinging to the roof as emergency workers raised a crane to rescue her.
“There was a guy on the second floor who was buried up to his waist in concrete and stuff,” one man, who escaped the Pine Gould building, told 3 News. “I’ve never seen anything like it.”
In another building, residents rappelled to safety from a broken window after the stairwell in their 17-story building collapsed.
Officials gave no clear estimates of how many people might have been trapped in rubble, and there were conflicting reports about the number missing in the chaos late Tuesday.
Some witnesses reported seeing people inside the Christchurch Cathedral when its spire collapsed, but it was not clear if anyone was killed. The Associated Press and other news outlets reported that up to 23 Japanese exchange students were trapped in their language school, which was located inside the devastated CTV building in downtown Christchurch.
The earthquake hit the country’s South Island just before 1 p.m. local time, and the United States Geological Survey said it was part of an aftershock sequence from a magnitude 7.1 earthquake that rocked the same area in September, but caused no casualties.
“There is more substantial damage to buildings than there was during the original earthquake,” the civil defense minister, John Carter, told reporters in the capital, Wellington. Tuesday’s tremor was centered about six miles from downtown Christchurch, and was only about three miles underground, possibly making it more destructive.
Though it was shorter in duration and lower in magnitude, many residents said the earthquake felt more violent than September’s.
Several news outlets reported extensive devastation to the nearby seaside town of Lyttelton, nearest the epicenter of the quake.
According to The Associated Press, the earthquake dislodged 30 million tons of ice from the Tasman Glacier in the Southern Alps that slide into a lake, creating waves up to 11-feet high.
The A.P. also reported that an American delegation of 43 government, business and community leaders in the city for a United States New Zealand Partnership Forum meeting were thought to be safe. It said that nine congressmen who attended the meeting had left the city before the disaster.
“The earthquake itself was quite violent, a lot of movement,” said Jason Tweedie, a 40-year-old Christchurch resident who was sitting in his four-wheel drive vehicle when the earthquake struck. “It felt like there were about 10 people shaking the side of it, all at once, it was so much force.”
The force of the earthquake pushed thousands of gallons of water and silt into the streets, Mr. Tweedie said, and in some places the road appeared to open up and swallow several cars in his beachside neighborhood of New Brighton.
Julian Sanderson was in his apartment on the first floor of an old brick movie theater when the walls and ceiling began to crumble around him.
“When it all stopped, I had to kick out the front door to get out,” Mr. Sanderson, 41, said by telephone, standing in front of his nearly collapsed building. “I used to work in that building making furniture, but everything has just changed. What we have now is the clothes that we’re wearing.”
Kevin Drew contributed reporting from Hong Kong.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/business/23markets.html
February 22, 2011
Oil Prices Surge and Stocks Fall Amid Libyan Turmoil
By MATTHEW SALTMARSH [global oil market] [effects of Jasmine Revolution that will put pressure on West to hasten the end results] [this could hurt US and others whose ecnomies have finally showed signs of turnaround from 2008 economic meltdown] [*]
Oil prices continued to surge Tuesday as the political turmoil in Libya sent jitters through global financial markets Tuesday.
Equity markets in both Europe and the United States were sharply lower, while bond prices rose as investors fled risky investments.
Although independent verification of the repression of the rebellion in Libya remains impossible, human rights advocates outside the country estimate that hundreds of protesters have been killed by forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.
“This is looking more like a mini civil war than the protests already seen in countries like Egypt, Tunisia and Bahrain,” the Deutsche Bank analysts Jim Reid and Colin Tan said in a research note. “Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa and the ninth largest in the world

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/business/23markets.html
February 22, 2011
Oil Prices Surge and Stocks Fall Amid Libyan Turmoil
By MATTHEW SALTMARSH [global oil market] [effects of Jasmine Revolution that will put pressure on West to hasten the end results] [this could hurt US and others whose ecnomies have finally showed signs of turnaround from 2008 economic meltdown] [*]
Oil prices continued to surge Tuesday as the political turmoil in Libya sent jitters through global financial markets Tuesday.
Equity markets in both Europe and the United States were sharply lower, while bond prices rose as investors fled risky investments.
Although independent verification of the repression of the rebellion in Libya remains impossible, human rights advocates outside the country estimate that hundreds of protesters have been killed by forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.
“This is looking more like a mini civil war than the protests already seen in countries like Egypt, Tunisia and Bahrain,” the Deutsche Bank analysts Jim Reid and Colin Tan said in a research note. “Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa and the ninth largest in the world so the political unrest is understandably a source of concern regarding production volumes and prices.” [*]
While investors in the United States have so far ridden out the tumult in the Middle East and North Africa, analysts said they would have a harder time shrugging off the upheaval as it spreads across the region.
A spike in oil prices was particularly worrisome, they said, because it could snuff out the nascent worldwide economic recovery. [*]
“The prospect of a supply-side shock taking oil prices much higher is clearly negative for global growth prospects,” said Tom Levinson, an analyst at ING in London. “It is more troubling that this occurs in a year when policy makers are attempting to secure continued global economic recovery when fiscal austerity measures will bite hard.” [*]
Light, sweet crude oil for April delivery surged to $98.48 a barrel in New York trading before easing back to $96.43. The April contract for Brent crude, a global benchmark for oil that trades in London, was up 1.6 percent at $107.02 a barrel, a gain of about 45 percent since August, after hitting $108.57 earlier in the session. [good for Russia, Iran, Venezuela and few others] [*]
The jump in oil prices came even as Paris-based International Energy Agency tried to offer reassurances.
In a statement Tuesday, the agency said that it “stands ready, as always, to make oil available to the market in the event of a major supply disruption if alternative supplies cannot readily be made available via normal market mechanisms.”
For the moment, it added, “we are not in a situation where that is necessary.” The agency requires its members to hold oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net oil imports and — in the event of a major oil supply disruption — to release stocks.
Equity shares were lower. In early trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 64.21 points, or 0.52 percent. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index declined 11.90, or 0.89 percent, while the technology heavy Nasdaq lost 37.97, or 1.34 percent.
In Europe, the FTSE-100 and the Euro Stoxx 50, a benchmark for the region, had both shed more than 0.5 1 percent, after similar falls of 1 percent on Monday. The CAC-40 in Paris declined by 1.2 percent.
In Asia, the Nikkei 225 closed 1.8 percent lower, and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong sank 2.1 percent. Markets in the United States were closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, but are expected to open sharply lower on Tuesday.
“Over the past few weeks we had a domino effect, and the concern is that anything can happen,” said Justin Urquhart Stewart, co-founder of Seven Investment Management in London. “At the moment the ripple is very small, but it has the potential to turn into something bigger quickly.” [*]
Other analysts said the unrest had not yet unnerved investors in the United States. Still, the global repercussions of the unrest are becoming hard to overlook.
After the toppling of leaders in Egypt and Tunisia, anti-government demonstrators in Yemen and Libya are seeking to oust their leaders. Witnesses said the streets of Tripoli have been thick with special forces loyal to Colonel Qaddafi as well as mercenaries. Roving the streets in trucks, they have been shooting freely as planes dropped what witnesses described as “small bombs” and helicopters fired on protesters.
Market stability around the world depends to a large extent on the leveling off of the price of oil, which seems unlikely, given the turmoil.
Western countries fear being cut off from the oil supply in Libya, which exports about 1.5 million barrels a day. There appears to be ample reason for concern, as oil companies — including Eni of Italy, the largest energy producer in Libya — have started to evacuate employees.
If the world is, in fact, cut off from Libyan oil, prices are likely to rise even higher.
“The U.S. is not immune from this,” Mr. Urquhart Stewart said. “If you see a significant rise in the oil price for a long period, that could easily choke off any U.S. recovery that is still weak.”
Yet even if Libyan oil exports were shut down, larger oil producers like Saudi Arabia have enough spare capacity to keep prices from skyrocketing. [*]
Seeking to find a solution to price fluctuations, Saudi Arabia scheduled a meeting Tuesday for energy officials from more than 90 countries.
Analysts are watching Saudi Arabia for any signs of dissent there. The country produces about 10 percent of the world’s supply. [*]
“There is no doubt that should Saudi Arabia be drawn in, a major market dislocation would occur,” said Mr. Levinson, at ING.
“There’s reason to get spooked on oil, and U.S. investors aren’t doing it yet,” said Howard Silverblatt, a senior index analyst at Standard & Poor’s. Instead, he said, U.S. investors have been focusing on strong earnings reports and encouraging sales figures from retailers and other major companies in the United States. “We’ve done well, and it looks like that’s going to continue,” he said.
Separately, shares in Spanish banks declined after the central bank in Madrid said Monday that 46 percent of the exposure that the country’s savings banks had to the construction and real estate sectors was “problematic.” Banco Santander lost 1.2 percent and BBVA was down 1.7 percent.
Bond markets in Europe appeared relatively calm. The euro traded at $1.3557 down from $1.3679 late Monday in New York.
Ben Protess in New York and Julia Werdigier in London contributed reporting.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:45 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/middleeast/23suez.html
February 22, 2011
Israel Silent as Iranian Ships Transit Suez Canal
By ISABEL KERSHNER [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [understandably, the Israelis are nervously watching the contagion of Jamine Revolution] [followup] [now, Iranian warships transit the Suez in first time since 1979?!] [*]
JERUSALEM — Reports that two Iranian Navy ships were passing through the Suez Canal early Tuesday, heading for the Mediterranean, were initially greeted with a tense silence in Israel where officials have described the move as a provocation.
The ships were expected to transit the canal without incident.
Although there was no immediate official response to the reports, an aide to Israel’s defense minister, Ehud Barak, said by telephone that Israel was obviously not happy at the development. But he reiterated Mr. Barak’s view, expressed in an interview with Fox News last week, that while the move was unwelcome, it should not be blown out of proportion. [*]
Israel’s foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, was the first to draw attention to Iranian plans to send warships through the canal for the first time in decades, telling an audience in Jerusalem last Wednesday that the ships were due to cross that night and warning that “the international community must understand that Israel cannot ignore these provocations forever.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel viewed the Iranian move “with

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/middleeast/23suez.html
February 22, 2011
Israel Silent as Iranian Ships Transit Suez Canal
By ISABEL KERSHNER [Israel] [domestic policy intersect foreign policy] [Israel’s foreign policy in Levant-regionally] [the process restarted by Obama in early September is in a shambles] [understandably, the Israelis are nervously watching the contagion of Jamine Revolution] [followup] [now, Iranian warships transit the Suez in first time since 1979?!] [*]
JERUSALEM — Reports that two Iranian Navy ships were passing through the Suez Canal early Tuesday, heading for the Mediterranean, were initially greeted with a tense silence in Israel where officials have described the move as a provocation.
The ships were expected to transit the canal without incident.
Although there was no immediate official response to the reports, an aide to Israel’s defense minister, Ehud Barak, said by telephone that Israel was obviously not happy at the development. But he reiterated Mr. Barak’s view, expressed in an interview with Fox News last week, that while the move was unwelcome, it should not be blown out of proportion. [*]
Israel’s foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, was the first to draw attention to Iranian plans to send warships through the canal for the first time in decades, telling an audience in Jerusalem last Wednesday that the ships were due to cross that night and warning that “the international community must understand that Israel cannot ignore these provocations forever.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel viewed the Iranian move “with utmost gravity.” [*]
Referring to the turmoil that is sweeping the region, and that brought down the Mubarak regime in Egypt, Israel’s crucial ally over the past 30 years, Mr. Netanyahu said that Iran was trying “to exploit the situation that has been created in order to expand its influence by passing warships through the Suez Canal.” [clearly] [*]
This, like other developments, he added, underscored his argument that “Israel’s security needs will grow and the defense budget must grow accordingly.”
Israeli analysts said that the Iranians wanted to show a presence beyond their normal reach, making a point both to Israel and to the United States whose forces are stationed in the Gulf.
Israel has been careful not to point a finger publicly at the Egyptian authorities now in charge in Cairo, although the Egyptians had to give permission for the Iranian ships — a frigate and a supply vessel — to pass through the canal.
Citing a possible purpose for the ships’ movement, Iran’s semiofficial Fars news agency reported on Jan. 26 that Iranian Navy cadets had been sent on a yearlong training mission to defend cargo ships and oil tankers against Somali pirates, Reuters reported. The Fars report said they would travel via the Gulf of Aden into the Red Sea and on through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean. [*]
Israel has long accused Iran and Syria of providing weapons to Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite organization with which Israel fought a war in 2006. Israeli military officials said recently that Hezbollah has around 45,000 rockets and missiles buried underground that could be fired at Israel.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:44 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/21/AR2011022104653.html
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces prospect of democracy amid internal discord
By Ernesto Londono and Leila Fadel
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, February 22, 2011; A07 [Egypt] [Jasmine Reveloution begun in Tunisia has spread elsewhere in Arab (and Muslim?) world] [Jasmine Revolution] [followup] [use psci 355-455, 469] [the pharaoh is gone] [what’s next?] [followup] [the “what’s next” continues] [finally some decent coverage of Muslim Brothers without the drama] [yesterday I posted another in societal, New York Review of Books] [*]
CAIRO - With President Hosni Mubarak gone, the Muslim Brotherhood is finding the prospect of democracy here a mixed blessing.
After decades of fighting for the right to participate openly in politics, Egypt's largest opposition movement soon will face competition from emerging political factions, led by tech-savvy young Egyptians, as the country gears up for what could be its first fair election. [*]
The Islamist group also is facing internal discord, with a handful of young members breaking away. Some say they disapprove of the Brotherhood's rigid top-down leadership structure and its politics. [**]
The organization, which has social and political wings, has the support of an estimated 20

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/21/AR2011022104653.html
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces prospect of democracy amid internal discord
By Ernesto Londono and Leila Fadel
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, February 22, 2011; A07 [Egypt] [Jasmine Reveloution begun in Tunisia has spread elsewhere in Arab (and Muslim?) world] [Jasmine Revolution] [followup] [use psci 355-455, 469] [the pharaoh is gone] [what’s next?] [followup] [the “what’s next” continues] [finally some decent coverage of Muslim Brothers without the drama] [yesterday I posted another in societal, New York Review of Books] [*]
CAIRO - With President Hosni Mubarak gone, the Muslim Brotherhood is finding the prospect of democracy here a mixed blessing.
After decades of fighting for the right to participate openly in politics, Egypt's largest opposition movement soon will face competition from emerging political factions, led by tech-savvy young Egyptians, as the country gears up for what could be its first fair election. [*]
The Islamist group also is facing internal discord, with a handful of young members breaking away. Some say they disapprove of the Brotherhood's rigid top-down leadership structure and its politics. [**]
The organization, which has social and political wings, has the support of an estimated 20 percent of Egypt's mostly Muslim population. Until now, it had been the only counterweight to Mubarak's ruling party. [*]
"In light of the oppression of Mubarak, the group was cohesive, one body," said Abdel Moneim Mahmoud, a former member and Egyptian journalist who writes about Islamic politics. "Now there is freedom. Many ideas will come to the surface and break some of that cohesion." [*]
Secular Egyptians and many in the West view the Brotherhood warily because it seeks to deepen the role of Islam in people's lives. Deeply religious Egyptians, meanwhile, view it as too liberal.
The foray of the Brotherhood and other Islamist groups into mainstream politics, and the competition among them, is certain to stoke debate about the intersection between religion and governance in a country that has been ruled in a secular way for decades.
Since Mubarak's ouster, the Brotherhood has offered few signs that it aspires to transform Egypt into a repressive Islamist state. The group bills itself as a moderate movement that seeks to broaden the appeal of Islam from the ground up. It also has long lobbied for a democratic system that ensures freedom of expression and term limits.
Brotherhood leaders say that they will not field a candidate for the presidency this year and that they intend to compete for no more than a quarter of the seats in the next parliament.
"It's not our aim to take power, it is just to participate," said Abdel Moneim Abou el-Fotouh, a prominent member of the Brotherhood who is regarded as progressive.
Members and political analysts say the Brotherhood is deliberately keeping a low profile because its leaders are concerned that showing more ambition could backfire by stirring fear in the West and among secular Egyptians.
"You don't know if what they say is what they want, and that's the big concern," a Western diplomat said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to voice an emerging concern. [*]
The opening of Egyptian politics is bringing to the fore long-standing rifts among conservative and progressive factions within the Brotherhood. Women and young members for years have lobbied for more prominent roles within the organization.
Until now, those who left the group found it nearly impossible to create new political organizations because Mubarak's government crushed emerging opposition movements.
In the past, only the Brotherhood and Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP) were able to turn out voters, said Elijah Zarwan, a Cairo-based senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, a think tank. [*]
"If there are free and fair elections, we can expect broader voter turnout, and the Brotherhood could lose out," Zarwan said.
The Brotherhood got 88 seats in parliament in the 2005 elections, a record showing. It secured none in last fall's parliamentary elections, which the NDP rigged. [but they didn’t run as Brotherhood but semi independents] [as I recall, though, most people knew they were part of the Brothers?] [*]
In a sign of how Egypt's political landscape is opening, on Saturday, an Egyptian court granted a license to the moderate Islamic movement al-Wasat al-Jadid to establish a party. [*]
The movement, which bills itself as an inclusive group of Islamists, liberals and nationalists, has been trying to establish itself as a party for more than a decade. Because several of its leaders are former Brotherhood members, it is likely to attract voters who in the past would have supported Brotherhood candidates.
"We need at least a year to give a chance to other groups to form, and this will create a balance," said Abu Elela Mady, chairman of the group. "We need many groups that are secular, liberal and religious."
The Brotherhood's leaders were late to endorse the wave of anti-government demonstrations that forced Mubarak to resign Feb 11. But they were quick to hold talks with representatives of Mubarak's embattled regime days before it fell, which angered several of the young activists spearheading the revolt. [*]
"This is an indication that the young people have more awareness than the old guard in the movement," said Mahmoud, 31, the former member. "The Brotherhood always advocated reform, not full change. They didn't expect the revolution, and they were afraid of direct clashes that would lead to mass arrests."
Brotherhood leaders bristle at being labeled fundamentalists. But some of its leaders have supported controversial positions. When the Brotherhood had dozens of lawmakers in parliament, some of them defended female circumcision and the banning of books that they felt depicted Egyptians as deviants. [*]
Whether the movement benefits or suffers from the democratization of Egypt will depend on people like Heba Shahinaz Abd el-Salam.
The 31-year-old documentary filmmaker has been a supporter of the Brotherhood since she was 17. She says she was attracted to the group because she saw it as the only entity promoting social change in Egyptian society. She felt the group espoused "moderate Islamic thinking" and represented the only hope for political change in a country run as an oligarchy.
A day after throngs began protesting in Cairo on Jan. 25, she joined demonstrations in Tahrir Square, where she was among the protesters who camped out for several nights. Ordinarily, she would have waited for the Brotherhood's blessing before participating.
"But the idea of riding the wave didn't occur to them until they realized the government was afraid," Salam said.
In recent days, Salam said, young Brotherhood supporters are split over whether to back the group's old guard, led by male elders who sit on its "guidance council." The alternative, she said, is an emerging "young generation that believes the leadership must be dismantled."
For her, one of the crucial questions is whether the Brotherhood will give women more prominent roles. [*]
Leaders in the movement stressed in interviews that going forward the group is committed to raising the profile of women and young members.
During his rule, Mubarak kept the Brotherhood on a tight leash, using the perceived threat it posed to fend off pressure from the United States and others in the West who called for democratic reform.
Unlike other Islamist political groups in the region, such as Iraq's Sadr movement and Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Brotherhood in recent decades has rejected taking up arms to further its objectives. [*]
The Brotherhood has been banned and oppressed by the state almost without interruption since it emerged as a movement in 1928. It found its political voice opposing British colonial rule in the ensuing decade and has drawn its considerable strength and popular support by providing social services to Egypt's poor in a nation where wealth is inequitably distributed.
Mohammed Hekal, 26, an industrial engineer who was once a Brotherhood leader in university student circles, left the group shortly before the revolution because he deemed it too dogmatic.
At the time, forming a new political party was not an option. Now, he said, he would like to establish one along the lines of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, which includes Islamists, nationalists and social conservatives.
"Egypt should and will need different parties with Islamic bases that span from the left to the right," he said. "I'm left of the Brotherhood."
londonoe@washpost.comfadell@washpost.com Special correspondent Muhammad Mansour contributed to this report. © 2011 The Washington Post Co

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:43 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/middleeast/23bahrain.html
February 22, 2011
In Bahrain, Shiites Turn Out in Great Numbers to Protest
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN and J. DAVID GOODMAN [Bahrain] [Persian Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [somewhat complex by virtue of Sunni monarchy ruling over Shi’a majority] [after recent violent disruption of Pearl Square or roundabout, the protestors managed to take it back?] [use psci 355-455] [*]
MANAMA, Bahrain — More than 100,000 protesters poured into the central Pearl Square here on Tuesday in an unbroken stream stretching back for miles along a central highway in the biggest antigovernment demonstration yet in this tiny Persian Gulf kingdom.
The protesters, mostly members of the Shiite majority, marched along the eastbound side of Sheikh Khalifa Bin Salman Highway in a wide, unbroken column of red and white, the country’s colors. Men of all ages walked with women and children waving flags and calling for an end to the authoritarian government of King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa. [*]
In a nation of only a half a million citizens, the sheer size of the gathering was astonishing. The protest, organized by the Shiite opposition parties, began in the central Bahrain Mall,

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/middleeast/23bahrain.html
February 22, 2011
In Bahrain, Shiites Turn Out in Great Numbers to Protest
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN and J. DAVID GOODMAN [Bahrain] [Persian Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [somewhat complex by virtue of Sunni monarchy ruling over Shi’a majority] [after recent violent disruption of Pearl Square or roundabout, the protestors managed to take it back?] [use psci 355-455] [*]
MANAMA, Bahrain — More than 100,000 protesters poured into the central Pearl Square here on Tuesday in an unbroken stream stretching back for miles along a central highway in the biggest antigovernment demonstration yet in this tiny Persian Gulf kingdom.
The protesters, mostly members of the Shiite majority, marched along the eastbound side of Sheikh Khalifa Bin Salman Highway in a wide, unbroken column of red and white, the country’s colors. Men of all ages walked with women and children waving flags and calling for an end to the authoritarian government of King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa. [*]
In a nation of only a half a million citizens, the sheer size of the gathering was astonishing. The protest, organized by the Shiite opposition parties, began in the central Bahrain Mall, two miles from the square and seemed to fill the entire length of the highway between the two points. [I can tell you this makes the Sunni regimes in neighborhood nervous] [and they tend to see Iran behind it whether or not Iran has anything to do with it?] [*]
Security forces were nowhere to be seen along the demonstration route. The Ministry of the Interior, which has been regularly providing updates on the situation in the capital via its Twitter feed, issued a terse acknowledgment of the protest: “Sheikh Khalifa Bin Salman towards Manama is now closed.”
The protesters streaming into the square on Tuesday joined thousands of others — among them teachers, lawyers and engineers — who have camped out in order to occupy the area after the military pulled out following a deadly crackdown last week. The new arrivals were likely to overflow into the area surrounding the square.
With the army removed, and the police withdrawn under intense pressure from the United States, the Shiite opposition has acted as if it were in a position of strength.
Since the fall earlier this month of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, the Sunni royal family in Bahrain has struggled to hold back a rising popular revolt against their absolute rule.
Bahrain is a close ally of the United States in the region, and the Navy’s Fifth Fleet is based here, helping ensure the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and the gulf and safeguarding American interests.
Washington’s posture toward the Shiite majority, which is spearheading the opposition, could prove crucial to future relations with this small but strategically valuable nation. [*]
Over the years, the American military, the advisers and the human rights advocate said, believed that King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa and his court were reform-minded leaders who could advance democracy and preserve stability. That narrative contrasts sharply with the experience of the Shiites, as documented by human rights groups and some of the military’s own advisers. [on a continuum, the al Khalifa family are moderate relative to Saudi and others] [in Syria the reverse: Shi’a rulers (though small sect) over Sunni majority population] [*]
In Bahrain, as in Egypt and Tunisia, the United States finds itself again torn by its desire to preserve relations with autocratic leaders who back American foreign policy interests and by the danger of further alienating Arab public opinion by failing to promote democracy. At the moment, feelings toward the United States are neutral, and in some circles even positive, but they could slip toward hostile, opposition advocates said.
Michael Slackman reported from Manama and J. David Goodman from New York.

Posted by Kent Bolton at 04:42 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/africa/23libya.html
February 22, 2011
Chaos Grows in Libya as Strife in Tripoli Intensifies
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and SHARON OTTERMAN [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly several dozen (now upward of 200) have been killed] [Libya seems to be next in the queue?] [Saif Qaddafi’s speech was reminiscent of Mubark’s] [reports yesterday of incredible brutality: planes and gunships firing on Libyan people] [followup] [*]
TUNIS — Libya appeared to slip further into chaos on Tuesday, as clashes intensified between rebels and forces loyal to Col. Muammar el Qaddafi in Tripoli. Opposition forces in eastern Libya moved to consolidate their control.
Witnesses described the streets of Tripoli, the capital, as a war zone. In several neighborhoods of the city, including one called Fashloum, protesters tried to seal off the streets with makeshift barricades of scrap steel and other debris. Forces loyal to Colonel Qaddafi so far failed to surmount the barricades and young protesters appeared to be gathering rocks to throw in their defense in anticipation of a renewed attack. [*]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/world/africa/23libya.html
February 22, 2011
Chaos Grows in Libya as Strife in Tripoli Intensifies
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK and SHARON OTTERMAN [Libya] [Middle East proper, including the Gulf] [regimes continues slow, plodding, political-eco liberalization] [broader middle east] [northern Africa or Islamic Maghreb; and Horn of Africa] [democratization] [Libya has cracked down and reportedly several dozen (now upward of 200) have been killed] [Libya seems to be next in the queue?] [Saif Qaddafi’s speech was reminiscent of Mubark’s] [reports yesterday of incredible brutality: planes and gunships firing on Libyan people] [followup] [*]
TUNIS — Libya appeared to slip further into chaos on Tuesday, as clashes intensified between rebels and forces loyal to Col. Muammar el Qaddafi in Tripoli. Opposition forces in eastern Libya moved to consolidate their control.
Witnesses described the streets of Tripoli, the capital, as a war zone. In several neighborhoods of the city, including one called Fashloum, protesters tried to seal off the streets with makeshift barricades of scrap steel and other debris. Forces loyal to Colonel Qaddafi so far failed to surmount the barricades and young protesters appeared to be gathering rocks to throw in their defense in anticipation of a renewed attack. [*]
Outside the barricades, militiamen and Bedouin tribesmen defending the strongman and his 40-year rule were stationed at intersections around the city. Many carried Kalashnikov assault rifles and an anti-aircraft gun was deployed in front of the state television headquarters.
“It is extremely tense,” one witness said, speaking anonymously for fear of reprisals.
The rebellion is the latest and bloodiest so far of the uprisings that have swept across the Arab world with surprising speed in recent weeks, toppling autocrats in Egypt and Tunisia, and challenging others in Bahrain and Yemen.
With the Internet largely blocked, telephone service intermittent, and access to international journalists constrained, information from inside the country remained limited. The number of casualties in the weeklong revolt against Colonel Qaddafi remained unknown. [Wedemen of CNN reported no border guards as he crossed from Egypt last night] [*]
Human Rights Watch said on Tuesday that it was struggling to confirm the number of dead, saying it had confirmed 233 as of Monday, most in Benghazi, the eastern city where the uprising began. Opposition groups estimated that that at least 500 people had died. [*]
A growing number of Libyan embassies around the world, including in neighboring Tunisia, have raised the country’s pre-Qaddafi flag — now considered the banner of the revolt — and many diplomats, including Libya’s ambassador to the United States, said they had resigned to protest the bloody crackdown. [every Arab leader, even those who’ve helped him, hates Qaddafi] [*]
International condemnation of the violence continued to build. “Now is the time to stop this unacceptable bloodshed,” said Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in a statement. Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary general, said Monday that he had spoken to Colonel Qaddafi and urged him to immediately halt attacks on pro