Hydrablog

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/02/world/asia/02afghan.html
November 2, 2009
Transparent Election Is Not Possible, Says Rival to Karzai
By DEXTER FILKINS and ALISSA J. RUBIN [Afghanistan] [hydra] [began in Pakistan, but moved to Paksitan] [AfPak] [the rigged elections now have come to head with UN, US, others urging runoff-type solution] [apparently others have prevailed on Karzia to go through motions of democracy] [pretty dramatic attack on UN housing in Kabul] [the Obama administration trying to figure how to support this regime?] [what’s Abdullah up to? To withdraw is to tell Karzai Abdullah’s price is quite steep, steeper than Karzai has imiagined to date?] [*]
KABUL, Afghanistan — Abdullah Abdullah, the chief rival to President Hamid Karzai, announced on Sunday that he would withdraw from the Nov. 7 Afghan runoff election, effectively handing a new term to Mr. Karzai but potentially damaging the government’s credibility.
Speaking at a news conference, Mr. Abdullah said that the Afghan people should not accept the results of an election run by the country’s Independent Electoral Commission, which has been accused of favoring Mr. Karzai. [puts a bunch of pressure on for them to cut better deal with him to make it all go away] [another reason the Obama people ought not to be waiting on election repeat for anything—it’s way to politicized] [*]
“I will not participate in the Nov. 7 election,” Mr. Abdullah said, because a “transparent election is not possible.”
Mr. Abdullah said that Mr. Karzai’s government had not been legitimate since May, when the initial round of balloting was originally to have taken place.
Before Mr. Abdullah’s announcement, American and other Western diplomats said they were worried that a defiant statement by Mr. Abdullah could lead to violence and undermine Mr. Karzai’s legitimacy, and they were urging him to bow out gracefully. Obama administration officials have scrambled for weeks to end the deadlock, trying to ensure a smooth government transition as President Obama weighs whether to increase the American military presence in Afghanistan. [in some sense it may clear the decks but I hope Obama is not waiting on that process to make sense?] [*]
People close to Mr. Abdullah said that his representative met with Mr. Karzai on Saturday but that they were unable to make any progress on the issue that brought the two campaigns to loggerheads: Mr. Abdullah’s demands that the Afghan election system be overhauled to head off more fraud in the second round. After the first round of voting, a United Nations-backed panel threw out nearly a million of Mr. Karzai’s ballots — one-third of his total — on the ground that they were fake.
The status of the runoff vote itself remained an open question after Mr. Abdullah’s speech. Afghan officials said it seemed likely that the vote would simply be canceled; the possibility of Taliban violence alone would appear to render pointless another Afghan election where the winner was known in advance. [*]
When asked by reporters if he was calling for his supporters to boycott the runoff, Mr. Abdullah said, “I have not made that call.” He urged his followers “not to go to the streets, not to demonstrate.”
The election deadlock over the last nine weeks has highlighted the Afghan state’s fragility and has showed deep and growing divisions among Afghans. And it has, like so many other recent events here, posed a worsening problem for American and other Western leaders, who have found themselves stuck with a leader who has lost the support of large numbers of Afghans, and whose government is widely regarded as corrupt.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, traveling in Abu Dhabi, gave the administration’s only comment on Saturday in response to the reports that Mr. Abdullah might withdraw. “We see that happen in our own country where, for whatever combination of reasons, one of the candidates decides not to go forward,” she said. “I don’t think it has anything to do with the legitimacy of the election. It’s a personal choice which may or may not be made.” [have to admire her ability to take blow after blow and stand unfazed] [*]
The concern among diplomats here on Saturday was that Mr. Abdullah would denounce Mr. Karzai even as he bowed out of the race, possibly causing greater anger, and even violence, among his followers. American and Western diplomats were leaning on Mr. Abdullah to pull out with little rancor and to urge his supporters to accept the fact that Mr. Karzai would be president.
Mr. Karzai’s supporters were also hoping Mr. Abdullah would choose that course. Over the past month, as the evidence of vote stealing piled up, Mr. Karzai’s ministers carried on with extraordinary self-confidence, portraying the fraud, and the runoff itself, as a nuisance that, once overcome, would allow them to get on with their jobs.
Against a backdrop of bargaining and diplomatic activity, Mr. Karzai stayed silent publicly. Only last month, Mr. Karzai succumbed to pressure from American and other Western officials, agreeing to accept the verdict of a United Nations-backed commission that put his vote total at under 50 percent. [*] [with much more crap, he can reasonably turn to the US and say, “I tried” my best]
To the horror of American officials here, Mr. Karzai had strongly considered overriding the Election Complaint Commission, a United Nations-backed body that found that nearly a million ballots had been forged for Mr. Karzai, and declaring himself the winner. Mr. Karzai still held a commanding lead over Mr. Abdullah — 48 to 27 percent — but the commission had pulled the president below 50 percent. That made a runoff necessary.
Only the forceful intervention of Senator John Kerry, who was visiting in Kabul, averted a full-blown political crisis.
But Mr. Abdullah concluded that without major changes to the election system, a second round would be as fraudulent as the first. His demands included the firing of the chief of the Independent Electoral Commission, which collected and counted the ballots, and the closing of hundreds of suspected “ghost” polling centers — fictional voting sites that were instrumental in allowing Mr. Karzai’s supporters to manufacture fake ballots. Mr. Karzai refused.
Those close to Mr. Karzai said there was a simple explanation for Mr. Abdullah’s withdrawal. Muhammad Ismail Yoon, a university professor close to Mr. Karzai, said Mr. Abdullah knew that if he went through with a second round, the Afghans would desert him. “No one invests in a loser in Afghanistan,” [that’s at least partly true] [which is ironic since it may make him a winner in a way] [*] he said.
Carlotta Gall contributed reporting from Kabul, and Jeff Zeleny from Washington.
Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company