Hydrablog

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/19/world/asia/19karzai.html
November 19, 2009
Afghans Angry With Leadership See Few Options
By ALISSA J. RUBIN [Afghanistan] [hydra] [began in Afghanistan, but moved to Paksitan] [AfPak] [2009’s substantial pickup in Taliban other insurgencies] [recall, however, that it really began in 2008] [Karzai govt to investigate corruption?] [followup] [sadly, it may be way too late] [*]
KABUL, Afghanistan — President Hamid Karzai begins a second term on Thursday as a leader badly damaged by a tainted election, strained relations with his allies and a record blighted by ineffective management and corruption.
His inauguration at this pivotal moment — eight years into the Afghan war as the United States is weighing a new battle strategy — raises the question of whether Afghans and American officials can expect any better from him over the next five years, as well as doubts about whether he can complete his term.
Mr. Karzai now faces rising calls from ordinary Afghans, Western donors, and the United States to root out corruption by overhauling his government.
But many of the people he is being urged to replace are the very supporters who helped re-elect him. It is not clear that he is willing to replace enough people to placate his critics, or if he did, whether his government could survive.
“If Karzai removes all the people who supported him in the election, the warlords, and he doesn’t have support from the international community, then he could lose both sides,” said Muhammad Noor Akbary, a member of Parliament who worked on Mr. Karzai’s re-election campaign. “He has to have some allies.”
At the same time, the patronage that his pre-election alliances are certain to encourage seem destined to undermine competent governance. Longtime opponents of Mr. Karzai say the entire system is so corrupt — the police, the prosecutors, the judiciary — that they are skeptical that justice is even possible.
Basher Dost, a candidate who came in third in the first round of the presidential election, believes Mr. Karzai’s lifelong orientation is toward his tribe and family, and those loyalties render him unable to make the deep changes needed in his government.
“He believes his power is his warlords, it’s the chiefs of tribes,” he said, adding that for that reason, Mr. Karzai cannot sever ties with his older brother, whom some American officials believe has helped the trade in poppies and opium to flourish.
“It’s not important what is true; what is important is the interest of your family. It’s why he cannot fight the warlords and cannot fight the corruption,” Mr. Dost sad.
Many Karzai allies charge his Western critics with hypocrisy, arguing that they helped put Mr. Karzai in power and bear some responsibility for what has gone wrong.
The inauguration will occur Thursday around mid-day at the presidential palace amid tight security. (The exact time is not being disclosed for security reasons.) Everyone in Kabul has been given the day off and people have been asked to avoid using their cars or walking around except in emergencies. The ceremony is expected to be held indoors to lessen the risk of injury if insurgents shoot rockets or mortars.
While American, British and other foreign diplomats have concentrated on the content of Mr. Karzai’s inauguration and have been pressing him to make what one called “a new compact with the Afghan people,” most Afghans say they are tired of speeches. It is his deeds they care about, not his words. They are watching particularly to see how many of the figures known to be corrupt or former warlords will be replaced. [Karzai must decide whether Afghan govt represents all the people or simply select, few elites] [only former gives any chance of success and even that chance is small] [*]
For Mahalai Shinwari, a member of Parliament from Kabul and a supporter of President Karzai, the warlords that need to be replaced include both supporters and opponents. Her list includes the two vice presidents, Marshal Muhammad Fahim and Abdul Karim Khalili, as well as Abdul Sayyaf, a leading member of Parliament; Abdullah Abdullah, who was Mr. Karzai’s chief rival in the election; Gul Agha Shirzai, the governor of Nangahar; and Atta Mohammed, the governor of Balkh, who is an opponent of Mr. Karzai. All of them were commanders during the violent and anarchic period when competing fighters ruled swaths of territory, stealing and pillaging as they fought one another for territory.
“How can you change a warlord into a democratic person?” she asked, shaking her head irritably. “By wearing a $20,000 suit and an expensive tie?
“I want these people prosecuted. I want justice, followed by security.”
Many of Mr. Karzai’s supporters agreed that sweeping changes are necessary. There is an understanding that the widespread government corruption and failure to deliver services is prompting people to turn to the Taliban and other insurgents groups.
A longtime Karzai supporter, Fazal Azeem Mujadadi, a member of Parliament from Badakshan, thought that 85 to 90 percent of ministers, deputy ministers and police chiefs needed to be replaced. Yet when asked about specific people, such as the two warlords who serve as Mr. Karzai’s vice presidents, several of Mr. Karzai’s supporters said they thought they could not be removed as a constitutional matter because Mr. Karzai had run with them on his ticket during the election and people had voted for them.
Nonetheless, many of Mr. Karzai’s supporters are sending him and his advisers lists of possible replacements and his appointments committee is reviewing the names, Mr. Mujadadi said. There appears to be a growing sense that something has to be done to satisfy the demands of foreign donors, the United States and other Western governments.
While it will be hard for Mr. Karzai to let loyalists go, he must do so, said Sayed Hamid Gailani, the deputy leader of the Senate and a longtime supporter.
“It is always difficult if someone says you should cut off your arm,” he said. “But if it is malignant, you should cut it off before it finishes you.”
Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company