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December 20, 2008

Blair Is Steeped in the Ways Intelligence Works

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/19/AR2008121903552.html
Blair Is Steeped in the Ways Intelligence Works
By Dana Priest
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, December 20, 2008; A04 [individual-role] [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [making the transitions to an AfPak strategy during a transition of epic nature] [concomitantly, global economic meltdown, along with climate catastrophe] [here the latter is the agenda] [in this piece some interesting insight into Dennis Blair, President-elect Obama’s apparent choice for DNI]] [I admit that I have been quite blown away with the thinking and construction—it’s parsimonious in ways theoretical research programs strive to be] [cross in today’s govt] [***]
After Dennis Blair's assignment as military liaison to the CIA 13 years ago, he groused

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/19/AR2008121903552.html
Blair Is Steeped in the Ways Intelligence Works
By Dana Priest
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, December 20, 2008; A04 [individual-role] [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [making the transitions to an AfPak strategy during a transition of epic nature] [concomitantly, global economic meltdown, along with climate catastrophe] [here the latter is the agenda] [in this piece some interesting insight into Dennis Blair, President-elect Obama’s apparent choice for DNI]] [I admit that I have been quite blown away with the thinking and construction—it’s parsimonious in ways theoretical research programs strive to be] [cross in today’s govt] [***]
After Dennis Blair's assignment as military liaison to the CIA 13 years ago, he groused about all the cloak-and-dagger politics at Langley headquarters. "You'd go to a meeting and think everyone had agreed" to a particular course of action, and then the meeting would end and "someone would come up to me in the hallway and say, 'Forget what you heard in there' " -- what we really want to do is something different, Blair once explained. [****]

Secret agendas have never been "Denny" Blair's style. The reserved former four-star admiral, who is widely understood to be President-elect Barack Obama's choice as director of national intelligence, is well known in Washington as an intellectual who values straightforwardness and has mastered the byzantine interagency process during his various government stints. [think of its elegance] [strong, well respected, Secretary of State Clinton who will rightfully demand access not just face time but who will also be in Obama’s debt and will necessarily be vested in his success] [out of central casting a al Scowcroft, Bobby Cutler. Av. Harriman, now comes Gen James Jones former Marine Commandant and former commander of forces in Europe Nato] [for at least first year, perhaps longer, a secretary of state whose biggest goal is fixing the messes in –ir and AfPak, the latter of which was clearly a function of the former] [old-time moderate, DC consensus type] [in short, extraordinary balance with a president who likes to debate his peers and luxuriates in the give and take of it] [now, in one of the few potentially really possible creations to come out of 9/11’s post mortems (see my U.S. National Security and Foreign Policymaking after 9/11: Present at the Re-Creation, August 2007, (Lantham Maryland, Rowman & Littlefield, 2007) ] [makes a great stocking stuffer!] [******]

In choosing a man so steeped in Washington's ways, the Obama administration is signaling its intention to streamline the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which is widely seen as too large, too cumbersome and still too disjointed, [correct on both counts] [but DHS even worse] [***] according to transition officials.

Created by Congress in 2004 over the objections of most leaders of the U.S. intelligence community, the McLean-based ODNI today includes 1,500 employees and a hefty, although undisclosed, number of private contractors. It supervises the nation's 16 other intelligence agencies, including the CIA. [***]

"This will be a new day for the ODNI, believe me," said one officer who has worked with Blair and who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he did not get permission to be quoted. [***] [and note, unlike DNI’s predecessors, is accountable to congress under advise and confirm clause] [****

Blair is likely to face Senate questions about his role in maintaining U.S. military ties with Indonesia's military during a period in which it engaged in human rights violations, and about his corporate ties to a company involved in the F-22 Raptor program. There are also members of Congress who remain uncomfortable with giving the top intelligence job, with its range of priorities, to a former military officer. [that’s odd] [if I remember correctly, IRTPA mandated either DNI or PD DNI were intended be former flag-grade officers who knew the Pentagon] [the thinking was that if the CIA (its DCI) ever had a prayer of making Pentagon heel to programming and budgets] [double check] [*****]

Blair would be the third recently retired four-star officer nominated by Obama for a top post, an unusual trend for a Democratic administration and one that has surprised both political camps. Former Marine Gen. James L. Jones is the nominee for national security adviser, and former Army chief of staff Gen. Eric K. Shinseki has been tapped as secretary of veterans affairs. [***]

Obama is also considering asking retired Air Force Gen. Michael V. Hayden to stay on as CIA director, according to officials familiar with the transition's selection discussions. [I get the reasoning but the downside is pretty bad] [another Obama nominee who was personally involved in a confrontation f**k-you moment with Congress] [he’s demonstrated some willingness to “speak truth to power,” but his critics argue far too often] [and like others whio are on the Situation Room mass email entitled “Don’t let the door catch up in the way out] [*****] [***] Such a choice would put three military men in top national security positions at a time when many experts believe intelligence is already too skewed toward military priorities.

Blair, a sixth-generation naval officer from Maine, is unusually familiar with the business of intelligence, with stops at the White House, CIA and Pentagon and through his daily contact with the State Department when he commanded U.S. forces in the Pacific. In the latter job, he helped turn the Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii into the largest such center in the world. After the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, he led an interagency effort to identify, capture or kill members of the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group in the Philippines. He knit together a team of special operations forces and CIA agents that worked closely with the Philippine army on tactical operations. [let’s give credit where due] [people implementing the adminstration’s goals and objectives in that region rolled up jihadis franchises, et vite] [*****

He also has adeptly navigated the shoals of Washington, first as a White House fellow, then as a National Security Council staffer, CIA liaison and director of the Joint Staff. In the Pacific, he butted heads with the State Department and Congress over his desire to maintain ties with the Indonesian military despite its human rights record and its involvement in East Timor atrocities. [*****"Militaries that are doing something bad at times go into their shell," he said at the time. "It's them against the world." A more fruitful strategy, he insisted, is to make them feel a kinship with professional militaries.

Robert Gelbard, a former U.S. ambassador to Indonesia, opposed Blair's push to work with that country's military in 2000, but he endorses Blair as director of national intelligence. "We had a legitimate policy disagreement. But he has a tremendous analytic mind and commands a lot of respect in Washington. His appointment comes at a time when there needs to be a critical reassessment of what the ODNI does," Gelbard said.[***]

Blair earns kudos from former staffers and peers for his management of large organizations with multiple, fast-paced operations. At Pacific Command, he managed more people than work in the Executive Office of the President, as well as military relations with 43 countries, including four with the world's largest armies: China, India, North Korea and South Korea.

As director of the Joint Staff, he led dozens of ambitious general officers with daily responsibility over every military program conceivable. Blair shepherded through the first mammoth Quadrennial Defense Review, a look at how the entire U.S. armed services would be used and what type of equipment and force structure would be needed in the post-Cold War era. He was never shy about showing his grasp of issues, and "you could always tell when Denny Blair knew more about the issue than the briefer," said retired admiral Stephen Pietropaoli, who sat in on many meetings. "He didn't hide it; he was very economical."

The same bluntness characterized his dealings with foreign counterparts. He once told surprised Chinese officials, "I'm not worried about you taking Taiwan because, even if you get across the straits, you can't maintain it, you can't protect it," according to a witness in the room. But he ultimately saw China as less of a threat than did the Bush administration. Blair also privately criticized the Taiwanese government for pushing too hard for independence when it already enjoyed de facto independence.

Blair's views on China and Taiwan and his efforts to create lasting multinational forums in Asia brought him crosswise with then-Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and ultimately cost him a chance at becoming chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. [that alone probably warrants his nomination] [****]He also is deeply committed to engagement, even with traditional adversaries, and to reorganizing government to empower diplomacy and other nonmilitary instruments of power, he has said in numerous interviews.

After retiring from the military, Blair became president of the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), a U.S. government-funded think tank. He also joined the board of directors and owned stock in EDO Corp., then a subcontractor for the F-22 Raptor fighter program. His corporate ties became the subject of a Defense Department probe after IDA issued a study endorsing an EDO contract for the program. The department's inspector general found that Blair had violated IDA's conflict-of-interest rules but had not influenced the results of the study.

In his typically blunt fashion, Blair told The Washington Post at the time: "With due respect to the inspector general, I find it difficult to understand how I can be criticized for a conflict of interest involving a study in which I had no involvement," he said.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Obama Appoints Climate Change Experts

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2008/12/20/us/AP-Obama.html
December 20, 2008
Obama Appoints Climate Change Experts
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 8:02 a.m. ET [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [making the transitions to an AfPak strategy during a transition of epic nature] [concomitantly, global economic meltdow, along with climate catastrophe] [here the latter is the agenda] [followup from yesterday] [******]
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President-elect Barack Obama on Saturday named Harvard physicist John Holdren and marine

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2008/12/20/us/AP-Obama.html
December 20, 2008
Obama Appoints Climate Change Experts
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 8:02 a.m. ET [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [making the transitions to an AfPak strategy during a transition of epic nature] [concomitantly, global economic meltdow, along with climate catastrophe] [here the latter is the agenda] [followup from yesterday] [******]
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President-elect Barack Obama on Saturday named Harvard physicist John Holdren and marine biologist Jane Lubchenco to top science posts, signaling a change from Bush administration policies on global warming that were criticized for putting politics over science. [***]

Both Holdren and Lubchenco are leading experts on climate change who have advocated forceful government response. Holdren will become Obama's science adviser as director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; Lubchenco will lead the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees ocean and atmospheric studies and does much of the government's research on global warming.

Holdren also will direct the president's Council of Advisers on Science and Technology. Joining him as co-chairs will be Nobel Prize-winning scientist Harold Varmus, a former director of the National Institutes of Health, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Eric Lander, a specialist in human genome research.

''From landing on the moon, to sequencing the human genome, to inventing the Internet, America has been the first to cross that new frontier because we had leaders who paved the way,'' Obama said in announcing his selections in his weekly radio address. ''Leaders who not only invested in our scientists, but who respected the integrity of the scientific process.''

''Because the truth is that promoting science isn't just about providing resources -- it's about protecting free and open inquiry. It's about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted or obscured by politics or ideology,'' he said. ''I could not have a better team to guide me in this work.''

In their posts, the four scientists will confront challenges in global warming after years of inaction by the Bush administration, which opposed mandatory cuts of greenhouse gas pollution. Last year, former Surgeon General Richard Carmona testified to Congress that top Bush administration officials often dismissed global warming as a ''liberal cause'' and sought to play down public health reports out of political considerations.

Since 1993, summer Arctic sea ice has lost the equivalent of Alaska, California and Texas, and global warming is accelerating. The amount of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has already pushed past the level some scientists say is safe. [***]

Holdren, 64, is a former president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington who has pushed for more urgent action on global warming. As Obama's top science adviser, he would manage about 40 Ph.D-level experts who help shape and communicate science and technology policy.

Colleagues say the post is well-suited for Holdren, who at Harvard went from battling the spread of nuclear weapons to tackling the threat of global warming. He's an award-laden scientist comfortable in many different fields.

''Global warming is a misnomer. It implies something gradual, something uniform, something quite possibly benign, and what we're experiencing is none of those,'' Holdren said a year ago in a speech at Harvard. ''There is already widespread harm ... occurring from climate change. This is not just a problem for our children and our grandchildren.''

Lubchenco, an Oregon State University professor specializing in overfishing and climate change, will be the first woman to head NOAA. A member of the Pew Oceans Commission, Lubchenco has recommended steps to overcome crippling damage to the world's oceans from overfishing and pollution and has expressed optimism for change once President George W. Bush leaves office.

''The Bush administration has not been respectful of the science,'' she said earlier this year. ''But I think that's not true of Republicans in general. I know it's not. I am very much looking forward to a new administration that does respect scientific information and that considers it very seriously in making environmental policies.''

Varmus, who was a co-recipient of the Nobel Prize for his research on the causes of cancer, served as National Institutes of Health director during the Clinton administration. A former medical professor at the University of California, San Francisco, he helped found the Ralph Lauren Center for Cancer Care and Prevention and chairs a scientific board at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Lander, who teaches at both MIT and Harvard, founded the Whitehead Institute-MIT Center for Genome Research in 1990, which became part of the Broad Institute in 2003. A leading researcher in the Human Genome Project, he and his colleagues are using the findings to explore the molecular mechanisms behind human disease.

In his radio address, Obama said he planned early next year to more closely address the issue of engaging the nation's technology community to ''harness technology and innovation to create jobs, enhance America's competitiveness and advance our national priorities.''

''It's time we once again put science at the top of our agenda and worked to restore America's place as the world leader in science and technology,'' he said.
------
Associated Press writers Seth Borenstein and Matthew Daly contributed to this report.
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press

Could We Uncover Watergate Today?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/19/AR2008121902928.html
Could We Uncover Watergate Today?
By Leonard Downie Jr.
Sunday, December 21, 2008; B01 [remembering Mark Felt and his implications today as Bush prepares to leave office] [******]
The death last week of W. Mark Felt -- Bob Woodward's secret source, indelibly dubbed "Deep Throat," who played such a crucial role in this newspaper's Watergate reporting -- coincided with the appearance of Richard M. Nixon, as played by Frank Langella, on local movie screens. As I watched Langella's Nixon being interrogated about the conspiracy and coverup by Michael Sheen's David Frost in "Frost/Nixon," I relived

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/19/AR2008121902928.html
Could We Uncover Watergate Today?
By Leonard Downie Jr.
Sunday, December 21, 2008; B01 [remembering Mark Felt and his implications today as Bush prepares to leave office] [******]
The death last week of W. Mark Felt -- Bob Woodward's secret source, indelibly dubbed "Deep Throat," who played such a crucial role in this newspaper's Watergate reporting -- coincided with the appearance of Richard M. Nixon, as played by Frank Langella, on local movie screens. As I watched Langella's Nixon being interrogated about the conspiracy and coverup by Michael Sheen's David Frost in "Frost/Nixon," I relived strong memories. And Felt's death raised the inevitable question: Could the kind of reporting that Woodward and Carl Bernstein pulled off be done today, more than three decades later, in the age of the Internet?

For many reasons, I believe it could. But it would probably play out quite differently. [***]

There are still whistle-blowers like Felt in government today -- probably many more than there were back then. They are encouraged by various public employees' organizations and protected by whistle-blowers' legislation enacted after Watergate. And they have many more investigative reporters to talk to -- not only at newspapers, despite deep and worrying cuts in newsroom staffs, but also many other media outlets, including investigative Web sites and blogs.

Numerous confidential government and other insider sources have helped Washington Post reporters with investigative stories in recent years, about everything from the CIA's secret interrogation sites for terrorist suspects to mismanagement at the Smithsonian Institution. Unnamed whistle-blowers assisted many news organizations, led by Joshua Micah Marshall's investigative blog, Talking Points Memo, in uncovering a pattern of Justice Department firings of U.S. attorneys across the country for apparently political reasons.

Just as it was with Mark Felt and other confidential sources used by Woodward and Bernstein in their Watergate reporting, few of these officials simply seek out journalists and spill all the beans. They usually have to be painstakingly pursued and wooed, and they often are wary of providing more than snippets of information that must be pieced together over time from numerous sources for the most explosive stories. Still, it happens every day in Washington, during every administration.

But two young local reporters chasing hunches and scraps of information about a criminal conspiracy involving the highest officials in government, including the president? Could that really happen again?

There's no reason why not, even though so much has changed since 1972. New technology actually makes investigative reporting somewhat easier. We can now use computers and the Internet to search records and other information, and we can use pre-paid cell phones for conversations with confidential sources. Of course, an administration under siege would also have more sophisticated resources for investigating leaks and marshaling counter-attacks in the news media and the blogosphere.

Reporters working today on a story such as Watergate would be unlikely to be left relatively alone, along with their sources, for as long as Bob and Carl were. Now, from day one, the story would be all over the Internet, and hordes of reporters and bloggers would immediately join the chase. The story would become fodder for around-the-clock argument among the blowhards on cable television and the Internet. Opinion polls would be constantly stirring up and measuring the public's reaction.

So the conspiracy and the cover-up would unravel much more quickly -- and their political impact would probably be felt much sooner. Nixon was re-elected five months after the burglary in 1972, and Watergate was not much of an issue during the campaign. That would not happen today.

In an age when the media have been turned upside-down by the biggest shifts in audiences and economic models since the advent of television, my two biggest questions about whether we could still pursue a story like Watergate center on resources and verification. Many Americans, including opinion leaders in Washington and elsewhere, simply didn't or wouldn't believe The Washington Post's reporting about Watergate during its early months -- not until we were joined by the New York Times, Newsweek, CBS News, Judge John J. Sirica, the Senate Watergate committee and the special Watergate prosecutor.

In today's cacophonous media world, in which news, rumor, opinion and infotainment from every kind of source are jumbled together and often presented indiscriminately, how would such an improbable-sounding story ever get verified?

As newsrooms rapidly shrink, will they still have the resources, steadily amassed by newspapers since Watergate, for investigative reporting that takes months and even years of sustained work.

These questions are not just about holding presidents accountable to the American people, as vital as that is. The answers could affect anyone whose conditions could be helped by great journalism, such as the wounded Iraq veterans whose care at Walter Reed Hospital has been greatly improved because of investigative reporting by Dana Priest and Anne Hull in this newspaper.

Despite the fame that came to Woodward and Bernstein after the book and movie "All the President's Men," these questions aren't about the greater glory of journalists either. In fact, Woodward, Bernstein and The Post were under almost constant attack during the early days of Watergate. Near the end of "Frost/Nixon," when Langella's Nixon refers to those "sons of whores" in the news media, a friend turned to me and whispered, "He's talking about you." I played only a supporting role in editing some of our Watergate coverage, but even after all these years, that still felt good.
Leonard Downie Jr. was executive editor of The Washington Post for 17 years. His novel, "The Rules of the Game," will be published next month.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

From Munich to Mumbai

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/opinion/20pedazhur.html
December 20, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor
From Munich to Mumbai
By AMI PEDAZHUR
Austin, Tex. [oped] [what, if anything, does the rise in jihadis events this year presage?] [I’ve made my suggestions throughout these pages] [use psc469b] [*****]
NOW that India and the world are over the initial shock of the terrorist attacks last month in Mumbai, efforts to understand what happened and prevent future calamities are being hampered in ways familiar to Israelis like myself, who have lived through far too many such events: pointless efforts to place blame, and a failure to put the attacks in the

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/opinion/20pedazhur.html
December 20, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor
From Munich to Mumbai
By AMI PEDAZHUR
Austin, Tex. [oped] [what, if anything, does the rise in jihadis events this year presage?] [I’ve made my suggestions throughout these pages] [use psc469b] [*****]
NOW that India and the world are over the initial shock of the terrorist attacks last month in Mumbai, efforts to understand what happened and prevent future calamities are being hampered in ways familiar to Israelis like myself, who have lived through far too many such events: pointless efforts to place blame, and a failure to put the attacks in the proper historical context.

First, contrary to much punditry in India and the West, these attacks did not indicate the emergence of a new form of terrorism. Actually, after decades in which terrorism had evolved mostly in the direction of suicide bombings, Mumbai was a painful reminder of the past. [true] [the outliers are 9/11 Bojinka-August 2006] [but it’s the outliers that catch the world attention in sufficient quantities to cause change] [and while I would not be the least surprised to see a Mubai-type attack in London, NY, Toronto, you name the placxw] [it’s the next outlier that equals the principal causes of my duress] [***]

The multiple hostage-takings and shootings, carefully planned and executed, were a throwback to the wave of hijackings and hostage situations that were the trademark of terrorists in the Middle East from the 1960s until the 1980s. The most famous of these events, of course, was the attack on the Israeli delegation at the 1972 Olympic Games.

In Munich, the Black September terrorists succeeded in capturing the attention of TV viewers around the world for a whole day. They knew most TV networks had sent crews to cover the Games and thus would broadcast the hostage situation as it unfolded.

The terrorists in Mumbai were even more successful, in that they created a drama that lasted much longer. They did so by aiming at high-profile targets like the hotels that are hubs for Western tourists and businessmen. They knew that viewers around the world would be glued for days to the constant stream of images on their TV and computer screens.

In addition, that the majority of the Mumbai terrorists landed from the sea was another ugly flashback. For years, terrorists favored arriving at Israel’s beaches on speed boats to take hostages in residential neighborhoods. [again causing my outlier duress] [we find in retrospect that flying planes inti building improvising missiles and using mother boats and smaller speed boats to enter India were not unknown] [it’s precisely that we has such information and yet were ineffective in using it that I’m alarmed] [****]

One of the most notorious perpetrators was Samir Kuntar, who in 1979 led a group of terrorists to the beach of Nahariya and shot a police officer and a civilian, Danny Haran, before smashing the skull of Haran’s 4-year-old daughter, Einat. Mr. Kuntar was released this year from Israel in a prisoner exchange, and in Damascus was awarded the Syrian Order of Merit.

Yet, despite the horrific nature of the attacks in the past, from a counterterrorism perspective the events in Mumbai were even more worrisome. Though they did not detonate explosive belts, the attackers were truly suicide terrorists. They did not take their hostages for the purpose of negotiations and it is quite clear that they did not hope to leave the scene alive. [***]

They also created chaos by attacking several locations at once. When the terrorists have the advantage of surprise, it really does not matter how well trained the counterterrorism forces are. [see my discussion of surprise in NSC and USFP books respectively] [*(***] It takes a long time to figure out what is going on, to gather tactical intelligence and to launch a counterattack.

No one should be aware of these facts more than the Israelis who in the 1970s endured a series of similar albeit less sophisticated attacks.

Hence, I have been very surprised to hear Israeli security experts criticizing the Indian response. These experts probably forgot the devastating civilian death tolls of the attacks in Maalot in 1974 (22 Israeli high school students killed), at the Coastal Road in 1978 (37 murdered, including 13 children) and at Misgav Am in 1980 (two kibbutz members killed, one an infant). These incidents all illustrated the extreme difficulty of rescuing hostages even when the attacked state has highly trained forces and a lot of experience.

Yes, Israel enjoyed a few successes that have been glorified around the world. The most famous were the raids on hijacked planes in Lod, Israel, in 1972 and in Entebbe, Uganda, in 1976. But these two airport rescues cannot be compared with the events in Mumbai. [****]

The Israeli success was due mainly to the fact that the terrorists involved were interested in negotiating, giving security forces the opportunity to gather intelligence, devise a rescue plan and take the hijackers by surprise. Hostages and rescuers were killed in both cases. Yet no security experts argued at the time that the Israeli forces were inadequately prepared or failed in their execution.

It is clear that the Indian security forces made some mistakes. However, mistakes are inherent in such crises. At the same time, given the complex nature of the attacks, it seems likely the death toll could have been much higher. [***]After the initial confusion, the Indians seem to have done a thorough job of gathering intelligence and carefully planning their counterattacks. The execution itself was careful and thorough.

Israel and India both face a lasting terrorism challenge. Yet, if I was asked to give India policy recommendations, I would be extremely cautious about advocating the Israeli approach. Protecting a huge multiethnic, multireligious country like India is far more challenging than securing a rather homogeneous, tiny state like Israel.

Just to illustrate, Israel’s airport security is rightly considered to be a model. However, the Israeli security establishment took years and experienced a number of direct attacks on travel hubs before it slowly introduced its impressive security measures. That Israel has only one major international airport — Ben-Gurion, near Tel Aviv — made the process much easier. And so far, Israel has not been able to tightly secure more challenging targets like train and bus systems.

The Israeli experience teaches that countering terrorism is a long and frustrating process of trial and error. Terrorists are fast to respond to new obstacles.

For example, the security barrier erected after the start of the second intifada in 2000 has brought a sharp decline in the number of suicide attacks. But Hamas adapted quickly. Suicide bombers were replaced by rockets. While the number of casualties caused by the rockets is significantly lower, I am not convinced that residents of the towns near Gaza feel any safer.

The Mumbai attacks showed just how difficult it is for large, multiethnic states to protect themselves from terrorism, something Americans have known well since 9/11. There is certainly much for New Delhi and Washington to learn from the Israeli experience, but there is no one-size-fits-all solution. While Israel has much to be proud of in how it has handled terrorism, it also has much to be humble about.

Ami Pedazhur, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Texas at Austin, is the author of the forthcoming book “The Israeli Secret Services and the Struggle Against Terrorism.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Where Does It All Go?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/opinion/20sat2.html
December 20, 2008
Editorial
Where Does It All Go?
[editorial] [the manifold problems of stroing spent nuclear waste] [what happens when Yucca Mt fills up?] [or if private companies allowed to build the 40 additional ones the GOP called for in the 2008 election, where would that go?
The Energy Department has recommended expanding the amount of nuclear waste that could be stored in an underground repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada to avoid the need for a second dump. It is a sensible proposal that also is an urgent reminder of how little progress has been made in solving one of the most vexing problems of the nuclear age.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/opinion/20sat2.html
December 20, 2008
Editorial
Where Does It All Go?
[editorial] [the manifold problems of stroing spent nuclear waste] [what happens when Yucca Mt fills up?] [or if private companies allowed to build the 40 additional ones the GOP called for in the 2008 election, where would that go?
The Energy Department has recommended expanding the amount of nuclear waste that could be stored in an underground repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada to avoid the need for a second dump. It is a sensible proposal that also is an urgent reminder of how little progress has been made in solving one of the most vexing problems of the nuclear age.

Tens of thousands of tons of spent fuel and military waste have been piling up at temporary storage sites around the country while the federal government has struggled, unsuccessfully, to find a long-term solution.

Expert groups have long recommended that the nuclear waste should be buried deep underground in a stable, leak-resistant geological formation that would keep it bottled up for many millenniums. Yucca Mountain, the only site now under consideration, has run into so many technical problems and so much political opposition that its future is uncertain. The site is still awaiting licensing from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

In the 1980s when Congress ordered the Energy Department to look for places to bury long-lived radioactive wastes, it visualized two underground repositories — one in the West and one in the East — to spread the burden fairly. Congress eventually chose one site in Nevada, which lacked the political clout at the time to push it elsewhere.

The only concession to Nevada was that no more than 70,000 metric tons could be stored at Yucca Mountain until a second repository was in operation. The amount of spent reactor fuel and military waste now stored at production sites and waiting for permanent disposal is expected to reach that limit by 2010.

The Energy Department now has recommended that the statutory limit be eliminated so that consideration of a second repository can be deferred. Without specifying any particular capacity, the report notes that Yucca Mountain could physically accommodate at least three times the statutory limit.

It would make sense to expand Yucca Mountain rather than undertake the arduous and controversial process of evaluating sites in other states. The political tides are running against the Yucca Mountain site. During a primary debate in Las Vegas, Barack Obama pledged to Nevada voters that he would “end the notion of Yucca Mountain.” His choice for energy secretary, Steven Chu, is also unenthusiastic.

A currently powerful Nevada Congressional delegation, led by its United States senators — Democrat Harry Reid, the majority leader, and John Ensign, the fourth-ranking Republican — also is pushing to kill off the project.

Our hope is that opponents of the repository will wait for a verdict from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission before prejudging the site as unacceptable. Nuclear waste is piling up and the country needs to find a safe place to store it.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Wayward Eye on the Homeland

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/opinion/20sat3.html
December 20, 2008
Editorial
Wayward Eye on the Homeland
[editorial] [the hoplessness all these years later] [more than the post-IRTPA ODNI and its creations] [department of homeland defense] [DHS subject to jurisdiction of 16 committees and some 40 subcomm] [****]
Of all the pressing tasks to bolster homeland security, the one that Congress has most dedicatedly ignored is the call to reform itself.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/opinion/20sat3.html
December 20, 2008
Editorial
Wayward Eye on the Homeland
[editorial] [the hoplessness all these years later] [more than the post-IRTPA ODNI and its creations] [department of homeland defense] [DHS subject to jurisdiction of 16 committees and some 40 subcomm] [****]
Of all the pressing tasks to bolster homeland security, the one that Congress has most dedicatedly ignored is the call to reform itself.
A hydra-headed system of oversight currently finds the Department of Homeland Security answerable to 16 committees and 40 subcommittees in the House, and 14 committees and 18 subcommittees in the Senate. This is a comedy that invites fresh national tragedy unless Congressional leaders finally resolve to streamline down to a few dedicated panels. [***]They must have the power to budget and bird-dog the sprawling agency, just as comparable scrutiny must be introduced to the parallel world of national and military intelligence gathering.

These crucial reforms have been undermined by the culture of fiefdoms where gavels are clung to by a herd of Congressional bulls snorting on their separate turfs as the real-life threats from terrorism grow more complex. [***]

When the 9/11 commission first warned of the oversight chaos in 2004, lawmakers dared to insist there was “purposeful redundancy” in their ramshackle approach. The commission’s alarm has been repeated lately by two more bipartisan, independent expert groups commissioned by none other than Congress. Will the next Congress finally listen? One of the studies, from the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, points out that forming commissions to get patently obvious advice is a symptom of Congress’s reluctance to change a structure built for the cold war, not modern terrorism.

A reorganization would require lawmakers to sacrifice committee powers they competed for years to accrue. But the only course, if Congress is serious about guarding the nation, is to center homeland oversight and budgeting in single committees in the Senate and House.

Reform will require more than just consolidating the oversight of national and military intelligence. Lawmakers must confront the monopoly of the hallowed appropriations panels by creating focused intelligence subcommittees with budget power. That is where true oversight begins.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Zimbabwe: Mugabe Says Nation Is His

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/africa/20briefs-MUGABESAYSNA_BRF.html
December 20, 2008
World Briefing | Africa
Zimbabwe: Mugabe Says Nation Is His
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Africa] [south-central] [south of horn; landlocked] [Zimbabwe] [south-central Africa, east coast] [former Rhodesia] [white rule and apartheid during colonial days] [since 1970s or so, momentum for majority rule, not unlike neighboring South Africa] [retrun of opposition winner and recent progress] [not much but south africa’s president finally brokered small steps] [whether it will last is yet to be seen] [followup] [since the mid September power-sharing deal, things have steadily headed south][********]
President Robert Mugabe said Friday that “Zimbabwe is mine” and vowed never to

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/africa/20briefs-MUGABESAYSNA_BRF.html
December 20, 2008
World Briefing | Africa
Zimbabwe: Mugabe Says Nation Is His
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Africa] [south-central] [south of horn; landlocked] [Zimbabwe] [south-central Africa, east coast] [former Rhodesia] [white rule and apartheid during colonial days] [since 1970s or so, momentum for majority rule, not unlike neighboring South Africa] [retrun of opposition winner and recent progress] [not much but south africa’s president finally brokered small steps] [whether it will last is yet to be seen] [followup] [since the mid September power-sharing deal, things have steadily headed south][********]
President Robert Mugabe said Friday that “Zimbabwe is mine” and vowed never to surrender, saying no African nation was brave enough to topple him. Responding to an American envoy’s call on Thursday to step down, the latest of many such calls from around the globe, Mr. Mugabe said: “I will never, never sell my country. I will never, never, never surrender. Zimbabwe is mine, I am a Zimbabwean, Zimbabwe for Zimbabweans.” Mr. Mugabe, 84, who has held power for 28 years, has been in stalled power-sharing talks with the opposition for three months amid an economic and political meltdown. In the latest effort to keep pace with stratospheric inflation, the central bank introduced a new note on Friday worth 10 billion Zimbabwean dollars.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Congo Warlord Linked to Abuses Seeks Bigger Stage

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/africa/20congo.html
December 20, 2008
Congo Warlord Linked to Abuses Seeks Bigger Stage
By LYDIA POLGREEN
BUNAGANA, Congo — At the entrance to this bustling border town is a most unusual sight: a speed limit sign. In fresh red, white and blue paint, it is a rare manifestation of order in a nation better known for chaos.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/africa/20congo.html
December 20, 2008
Congo Warlord Linked to Abuses Seeks Bigger Stage
By LYDIA POLGREEN
BUNAGANA, Congo — At the entrance to this bustling border town is a most unusual sight: a speed limit sign. In fresh red, white and blue paint, it is a rare manifestation of order in a nation better known for chaos.

The seemingly innocuous signpost is emblematic of the growing might and wider ambitions of Laurent Nkunda, the renegade Congolese general and warlord who now holds part of Congo’s future in his grip.

“I am fighting for the destiny of this country,” said Mr. Nkunda, offering up the orderly streets and neatly terraced farms of the surrounding countryside as evidence of what Congo might be like if he ran things. “What we want is to restore the dignity of this country and these people.”

But beneath the veneer lies a ruthlessness of a piece with Congo’s unbroken history of brutality. With a military campaign in October and November that was met with a feeble response from both the Congolese government and United Nations peacekeeping forces here in eastern Congo, General Nkunda has pushed the nation to its most dangerous precipice in years.

Many here fear a new regional war or that an alliance of convenience between General Nkunda and other enemies of the president could lead to the ouster of Congo’s first democratically elected government in four decades.

That General Nkunda, who is suspected of committing a litany human rights violations, could be a leading figure in such a move is a chilling thought for many Congolese. A recent journey through territory he controls revealed a host of contradictions between the image he puts forward and reality, including evidence of mass killings, the extraction of onerous payments from residents, illegal profiteering from the mineral trade and the conscription of child soldiers.

General Nkunda’s campaign began as a local insurgency aimed at redressing the grievances of a Tutsi minority that felt threatened by the aftershocks of the Rwandan genocide. But it has grown into a rebellion with a broad set of aims that include the removal of President Joseph Kabila, who was elected in 2006 after more than 40 years of tyranny and war in this country. “We have national ambitions,” General Nkunda declared, a hint of triumph in his voice. “We are talking about Congo.”

Some of this talk may be grandiose bluster from a man fond of referring to himself in the third person and who prefers to be photographed holding a scepter capped by a silver-plated eagle’s head. General Nkunda is despised by many in eastern Congo for his brutal tactics. He is also widely perceived as a proxy for Rwanda, a country whose meddling is largely detested by Congolese citizens. The general claims that he does not want to replace Mr. Kabila, merely to sit down and have direct talks.

But his forceful new challenge poses grave risks for Mr. Kabila, who is weaker than ever. The national army was routed on the battlefield, retreating virtually without a fight, pillaging and raping as it went.

The country’s economy, once fast-growing, is in shambles as the prices of minerals have plummeted in the global recession, and Mr. Kabila is increasingly unpopular. In eastern Congo, many people are unhappy at his failure to halt General Nkunda’s relentless military advance. In the west, where he has never been popular, he is under threat from political opponents who see his government as intolerant of dissent.

One by one, those who oppose him have felt the violent wrath of his security forces, according to human rights investigators and political analysts. A Human Rights Watch investigation found that 500 people had died and 1,000 had been detained in these crackdowns.

In the face of Mr. Kabila’s plummeting stature, General Nkunda has cultivated an image as a disciplined crusader bent on bringing order to the country. He dresses in sharp uniforms or flowing, immaculate white robes. He has claimed to be an evangelical minister and at times wears a pin that reads, “Rebels for Christ.” General Nkunda and his top commanders say their fighters have a commitment to discipline as well: drunkenness, looting and rape are offenses punishable by imprisonment and possibly death, according to senior rebel officers.

But in 2002, when General Nkunda was a commander in a different rebel group, he participated in the mass killing of 160 mutineers in the city of Kisangani, human rights groups say. According to Human Rights Watch, “Forces under Nkunda’s command bound, gagged, and executed twenty-eight persons and then put their bodies in bags weighted with stones and threw them off a Kisangani bridge.”

Two years later, his men took the city of Bukavu, and days of killing and rape followed, investigators say. Since 2005, when he formed his own rebel group, known as the National Congress for the Defense of the People, or C.N.D.P., his forces have carried out a number of massacres, according to human rights investigators, most recently at Kiwanja, in early November, where 150 people were executed.

In Nkunda territory, the general says, civilians are never harmed and live without fear of violence or looting. His men offer up the endless, Eden-like valleys around this town as proof. Terraced into rows as tidy as seats in an amphitheater, the land bespeaks a kind of ordered plenty.

But farmers here say they are forced to hand over a precious portion of their harvest to feed the fighters: 45 pounds of beans or grain, and as much as $20 a season in taxes, an enormous sum in a place where most people live on far less than a dollar a day.

General Nkunda said his rebellion was not motivated, like so many others fighting here, by plunder of Congo’s natural resources.

“I am not here for minerals,” he said. Indeed, there are almost no mines in the areas under his control, and General Nkunda has avoided getting directly involved in mining, fearing the taint of blood minerals that has stained virtually every group fighting here, including Congo’s own army.

But his fighters collect taxes on virtually every commercial vehicle and bushel of crops that come out of territory they control, according to residents and a United Nations report released last week. They even take a cut of the $300 permits sold to tourists wishing to see Congo’s rare mountain gorillas.

“The money goes to the rebels,” said one of the park rangers who monitors the animals. “None of it comes to us.”

General Nkunda’s men also profit from Congo’s minerals. Thousands of tons of tin ore, coltan and other minerals pass through the border crossing here to Uganda, headed to Kenya’s Indian Ocean port, and the rebels take a slice of the duties and taxes collected here, United Nations officials say. General Nkunda denied this, saying his men sent all taxes to the government.

According to rebel officials, in Nkunda territory children are never made to wield Kalashnikov rifles and kill. But boys like Eric, who is now 16 but says he has been fighting with armed groups since he was kidnapped by Hutu militiamen at the age of 9, say General Nkunda’s rebellion forces hundreds of children to fight.

“The strategy they use is this,” he explained. “When they met children on the road, they ask them to help them carry their goods.”

The boys are then taken to training camps, given guns and taught to fight, Eric said. His eyes are wide in permanent surprise, and he said he had headaches that did not respond to medicine. Loud noises terrify him.

“Too many bombs,” he explained in a soft voice.

For two years, from 13 to 15, he said he fought with General Nkunda’s troops.

“Many of us were boys,” he said. “They would send us out first, then the men.”

He lives in a shelter for boys separated from their parents by the war. In the next bunk is his friend Fabrice, a 14-year-old former Mai Mai fighter who used to do battle with General Nkunda’s forces.

“I always felt bad to kill other children, because I knew they had been forced to fight just like me,” he said.

General Nkunda seems to have little trouble drawing new recruits, because each man is issued a uniform, a gun and training, unlike Congolese soldiers, who can go months without salaries. Some fighters are drawn to the rebels for ethnic reasons, but many others simply want to fight on the side that wins. His force is more disciplined, General Nkunda says, because they are fighting for a cause they believe in.

General Nkunda seems determined to play the role of statesman in waiting, receiving visiting diplomats and emissaries like a chief of state. He rejects the legitimacy of the Kabila government, so the United Nations appointed the former president of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo, to cajole General Nkunda back to the negotiating table.

“What is democracy?” he mused, worrying his scepter, which has grown brassy over the years as his rebellion has flourished. “Democracy is not elections. Democracy is legitimacy. And legitimacy comes from what you are doing to your people.”

General Nkunda is all but certain to face an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for atrocities committed during his years fighting here, human rights investigators say, most recently in Kiwanja, where his men executed civilians and torched camps that housed 30,000 displaced people.

“Nkunda destroyed my life,” said Anorite Zawadi, 27, whose 8-year-old daughter disappeared when General Nkunda’s troops razed the camp in which her family lived. The girl has not been seen since.
“He has no mercy on us,” she continued. “He brings only death and sorrow.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Japan Admits World War II Prisoners Worked at a Mine Owned by the Premier’s Family

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/asia/20japan.html
December 20, 2008
Japan Admits World War II Prisoners Worked at a Mine Owned by the Premier’s Family
By NORIMITSU ONISHI
TOKYO — The Japanese government has acknowledged for the first time that Allied prisoners during World War II were made to work at a coal mine owned by the family of Prime Minister Taro Aso, contradicting his longstanding denials.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/asia/20japan.html
December 20, 2008
Japan Admits World War II Prisoners Worked at a Mine Owned by the Premier’s Family
By NORIMITSU ONISHI
TOKYO — The Japanese government has acknowledged for the first time that Allied prisoners during World War II were made to work at a coal mine owned by the family of Prime Minister Taro Aso, contradicting his longstanding denials.

The admission came after the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, under prodding from an opposition lawmaker, released documents showing that 300 Australian, British and Dutch prisoners of war worked at a mine owned by Aso Mining during the last four months of the war.

At a parliamentary session on Thursday, Foreign Ministry and health officials acknowledged the validity of the documents, about 43 pages retrieved from the basement of the Health Ministry building.

The acknowledgment was another embarrassment for Mr. Aso, whose popularity has plummeted since he took office three months ago. His erratic stewardship over an increasingly shaky economy and insulting remarks about groups including the elderly have lowered his approval ratings to about 20 percent and drawn public attacks from his own Liberal Democratic Party.

One of Japan’s wealthiest politicians, Mr. Aso, 67, has long denied what historians and survivors of his family’s coal mine have consistently said: that the mine, like many others, had used prisoners of war and forced laborers from Asia. In the 1970s, Mr. Aso was president of the family company, which is now called the Aso Group and is still run by his family.

Last month, when questioned in Parliament about the use of prisoners of war at his family’s mine, Mr. Aso said that “no facts have been confirmed” and that he was only “4 or 5 years old at the time.” Mr. Aso has yet to comment on the documents released by the Health Ministry.

Yukihisa Fujita, a legislator of the opposition Democratic Party who questioned Mr. Aso on the subject, said there had always been overwhelming evidence, including American government documents, of the mine’s use of prisoners of war.

“But Mr. Aso has consistently tried to escape responsibility,” Mr. Fujita said Friday in a telephone interview. “But there’s nowhere he can escape now with these official documents.”

Japan has long used the absence of official Japanese government documents to deny wartime crimes, rejecting documents from other countries or accounts of survivors. According to scholars, Japanese officials, to avoid prosecution, burned documents in Japan and across Asia in the days and weeks after the surrender to the United States. But many scholars believe that significant documents survive, as in the case of the 43 pages related to the Aso family mine.

The Japanese government, led for more than half a century by the Liberal Democratic Party, has long resisted pressure to release war-related papers. But the opposition’s capture of the upper house of Parliament last year has given it more power to seek information and documents from Japan’s powerful bureaucrats.

“There’s still a massive amount of documents on Aso Mining left in the basement of the Health Ministry,” Mr. Fujita said.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

NATO Acts to Renew Its Relations With Russia

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/europe/20nato.html
December 20, 2008
NATO Acts to Renew Its Relations With Russia
By STEVEN ERLANGER
PARIS — The secretary general of NATO had lunch on Friday with the Russian ambassador to the organization, beginning the “conditional and graduated re-engagement” with Moscow that NATO foreign ministers approved earlier this month.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/europe/20nato.html
December 20, 2008
NATO Acts to Renew Its Relations With Russia
By STEVEN ERLANGER
PARIS — The secretary general of NATO had lunch on Friday with the Russian ambassador to the organization, beginning the “conditional and graduated re-engagement” with Moscow that NATO foreign ministers approved earlier this month.

The ambassador, Dmitry O. Rogozin, said the lunch, at an Italian restaurant near NATO’s suburban headquarters outside Brussels, was a step toward more normal relations after the brief Georgian-Russian war in August.

“The most difficult thing is to make the first step,” he told reporters. “We are at the beginning of the difficult route to restore trust.”

In mid-January, there will be “an informal NATO-Russia Council meeting at the level of ambassadors,” Mr. Rogozin said.

The NATO secretary general, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, made no direct comments, but a spokeswoman, Carmen Romero, said the two men had “agreed to look at ways to restart the engagement.” She said the two sides hoped to hold an informal meeting of the council at the ambassadorial level next month.

NATO cut off formal ties with Moscow in the aftermath of the August war and said there would be no “business as usual” until Russia agreed to pull its troops back to their prewar positions and cancel its recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which are parts of Georgia.

But the beginnings of the war remain disputed, with many NATO allies believing that the Georgian leadership either began the war or fell headfirst into a Russian trap, giving Moscow a pretext to invade. Most Western European countries, dependent on Russia for oil and especially natural gas, have been eager to restart relations with Moscow despite its continued occupation of the two secessionist regions, and they overcame hesitation from the Bush administration and some Eastern European countries, which wanted Moscow to pay a stiffer price.

Still, when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made her last visit to a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting on Dec. 2, she agreed that the United States would not object to a gradual, phased re-engagement between NATO and Russia. “The idea of working through a kind of informal contact, with the NATO-Russia Council, is not a problem for us,” Ms. Rice said then. Mr. de Hoop Scheffer was to initiate the informal contacts with Mr. Rogozin.

In an interview the next day with The New York Times, Mr. de Hoop Scheffer said, “Russia is such an important factor in geopolitical terms that there is no alternative for NATO than to engage Russia.”

What mattered in the conversation with Russia, Mr. de Hoop Scheffer said then, was to try to understand “what was behind Georgia” and the short war, and whether it meant a lasting change in Russia’s attitude toward international law, sovereign borders and the “disproportionate” use of force.

He said he would report back to NATO foreign ministers, probably in March, on whether to deepen contacts with Russia still further.

The softer American position on contacts with Russia was seen as a trade-off with Germany, which agreed to defer a decision on the precise mechanism for future NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine — effectively, to an Obama administration.

In Moscow on Friday, Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov said Russia had conditions, too. “Now, when our NATO colleagues talk about restoring relations,” he said, “we will insist that the restoration of ties starts with the discussion of the causes of the Caucasus crisis which our NATO partners dodged in August.”

The United States ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volker, said on Friday, “We signaled our unhappiness with Russia using military force to invade Georgia and change borders by force of arms, yet we also signaled a desire for a cooperative relationship with Russia.”
The European Union also has renewed dialogue with Moscow.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Once a Political Riser, an Israeli Challenges His Country’s Identitye

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/middleeast/20burg.html
December 20, 2008
The Saturday Profile
Once a Political Riser, an Israeli Challenges His Country’s Identity
By ETHAN BRONNER
JERUSALEM — THERE was a time not so long ago when Avraham Burg was viewed by many Israelis as proof that the inherent tensions of Zionism — religious versus

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/middleeast/20burg.html
December 20, 2008
The Saturday Profile
Once a Political Riser, an Israeli Challenges His Country’s Identity
By ETHAN BRONNER
JERUSALEM — THERE was a time not so long ago when Avraham Burg was viewed by many Israelis as proof that the inherent tensions of Zionism — religious versus secular, insular versus worldly, Jewish state versus state of all its citizens — could be reconciled with grace. Here was a religiously observant Jew with a cosmopolitan outlook, a decorated paratrooper who believed deeply in peace with the Arabs, an eloquent, fast-rising public figure accessible to a broad range of citizens.

Widely known by his nickname, Avrum, Mr. Burg, a happily married father of six and the son of one of Israel’s most admired and longest-serving government ministers, was talked about as a candidate for prime minister. Long before his 50th birthday, he led the World Zionist Organization and served as speaker in Parliament.

But four years ago Mr. Burg not only walked away from politics, but also basically walked away from Zionism. In a book that came out last year and has just been translated and released in the United States, he said that Israel should not be a Jewish state, that its law of return granting citizenship to any Jew should be radically altered, that Israeli Arabs were like German Jews during the Second Reich and that the entire society felt eerily like Germany just before the rise of Hitler.

In other words, rather than reconciling the country’s complex tensions, Mr. Burg ended up imploding from them.

“I realized something about myself and Israel that frightened me,” he said recently, looking back over the past few years. “I realized that Israel had become an efficient kingdom with no prophecy. Where was it going? What is a Jewish democratic state? What does it mean that Jews define themselves by genetics 60 years after genetics were used against them?”

Israel is no stranger to self-examination. Its leaders and thinkers, indeed many of its average citizens, are aware that nearly everything about the place defies normal categorization and is subject to debate. This is a source of both pride and irritation. But many said Mr. Burg, 53, was not just asking delicate questions. He was poisoning the well from which the nation — and he — had long drawn their water.

As Ari Shavit, a writer for the newspaper Haaretz, said to him in an interview when the book was published here: “Your book is anti-Israel in the deepest sense. It is a book from which loathing of Israeliness emanates.”

Mr. Burg rejected that accusation and still does. He wrote from love, he said, and if the issues he raised were troubling, if they caused a stir, that was very much his aim.

There is no doubt that he raises some serious questions: Is Israel too focused on the Holocaust as a touchstone of history? Can it stay both Jewish and democratic over the long term, or is it time to look for another model? What kind of future is there for Israeli Arabs?

Less clear, however, is whether Mr. Burg has provided any serious answers. This is partly because his book and discourse vacillate between two poles: congratulating Jews and the Zionist movement for their success so far, but warning them that they are turning into a kind of self-justifying Sparta, a warlike state on the verge of tragedy.

His central point is summed up in the English title of his book: “The Holocaust Is Over; We Must Rise From Its Ashes” (Palgrave Macmillan). The Nazi slaughter of six million Jews, he says, has become the central theme of Israeli life, dominating it in a way that distorts the country’s outlook. Teenagers are sent on trips to Auschwitz; every enemy of Israel (Yasir Arafat, the Palestinian leader; Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the president of Iran) is viewed as the reincarnation of Hitler.

MR. BURG has shifted the title of his book over the years. When he was writing it, he called it “Hitler Won.” When he published it in Hebrew he called it “Defeating Hitler.”

Partly, he said in the interview, his thinking is evolving, and partly his American editors made some smart cuts and suggestions. But it also seems clear that he has modified and adjusted his arguments, especially for a foreign audience. The English version does not have some of his more alarming assertions in the Hebrew one — for example, that the Israeli government would probably soon pass the equivalent of the Nuremberg laws, with provisions like a prohibition on marriage between Jews and Arabs.

Asked what precipitated his initial shift from mainstream public figure to more marginal public scourge, Mr. Burg pointed to a process that began in 2001 when he ran for leadership of the Labor Party and lost in a tight race that he says was stolen from him through back-room deals.

It was not so much the loss, he asserted, as the realization that he had poured his heart and soul into trying to win something that he had thought so little about.

“I knew how to get elected, but what was I going to do once I got there?” he recalled thinking. Maybe, he felt, it was lucky that he lost.

He took five weeks off and walked part of the Appalachian Trail in Connecticut, New York and New Jersey by himself. “In five weeks I met 11 people, none of them Jewish,” he said. He realized that life here was too insular for him, that it was time to step outside the provincial concerns of the extended Jewish family.

Mr. Burg, born and raised in one of West Jerusalem’s most admired neighborhoods and a graduate of the Hebrew University, comes from one of the country’s iconic families. His father, Yosef Burg, barely escaped the Nazis when he left Germany in September 1939 and was a government minister for nearly four decades. His mother was a survivor of the Arab massacre of Jews in Hebron in 1929.

But Mr. Burg wanted a clean slate. He decided to leave politics and build an international business, stop writing bills and news releases and write books, stop taking short runs and train for marathons. And so he has. He is co-owner of a company that takes over failing businesses and rebuilds them for sale, has published two best-selling books and is a long-distance runner. He travels frequently and added a French passport to his Israeli one, a benefit of his wife’s origin.

The many friends and acquaintances of Mr. Burg — a man of great charm and wit, with a large social appetite — have been left bewildered by it all, saying the soft, flowery answers he has offered to his big, tough questions have left them cold.

Tom Segev, for example, a left-wing historian and Haaretz columnist, said in a review that the book was “one of the most spaced-out and in-your-face books this country has seen in many years.”

WHAT are Mr. Burg’s prescriptions? He wants a new Jewish identity focused not on the particular but on the universal, asserting that “if we do not establish modern Israeli identity on foundations of optimism, faith in humans and full trust in the family of nations, we have no chance of existing.” He wants Israel to dismantle the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial in Jerusalem and replace it with the headquarters for the International Criminal Court, making it the epicenter of international prevention of genocide.

In truth, he has gained almost no traction here with such recommendations. Yet what is perhaps most interesting of all is that Mr. Burg continues to play a public role in Israel. He is invited to speak to young people, he writes occasional opinion columns, and he is greeted warmly, even embraced, in this city’s cafes. This may be because, despite it all, Avrum Burg is family. And whether he likes it or not, Israelis look out for family.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Israel: Hamas Formally Ends Truce

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/middleeast/20briefs-HAMASFORMALL_BRF.html
December 20, 2008
World Briefing | Middle East
Israel: Hamas Formally Ends Truce
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Hamas formally announced the end of its unwritten, often-breached truce with Israel on Friday, as Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip fired four rockets into southern Israel. The Israeli military said two rockets were fired Friday morning and two more after

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/middleeast/20briefs-HAMASFORMALL_BRF.html
December 20, 2008
World Briefing | Middle East
Israel: Hamas Formally Ends Truce
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Hamas formally announced the end of its unwritten, often-breached truce with Israel on Friday, as Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip fired four rockets into southern Israel. The Israeli military said two rockets were fired Friday morning and two more after sunset. It also said troops guarding Israeli farmers in fields adjoining Gaza came under sniper fire from across the border. No injuries were reported. In a statement posted on its Web site, Hamas said it was Israel that had ended the truce by imposing an economic blockade on Gaza, carrying out military strikes and hunting down Hamas operatives in the West Bank. Thousands of Gazans rallied in Khan Yunis, above, in support of the militant group Islamic Jihad.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Armenia: Former Official Goes on Trial

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/europe/20briefs-FORMEROFFICI_BRF.html
December 20, 2008
World Briefing | Europe
Armenia: Former Official Goes on Trial
By REUTERS
A former Armenian foreign minister and six other opposition figures went on trial in the capital, Yerevan, on Friday on charges of seeking to overthrow the government during protests in March. Ten people died when protests against the results of presidential

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/europe/20briefs-FORMEROFFICI_BRF.html
December 20, 2008
World Briefing | Europe
Armenia: Former Official Goes on Trial
By REUTERS
A former Armenian foreign minister and six other opposition figures went on trial in the capital, Yerevan, on Friday on charges of seeking to overthrow the government during protests in March. Ten people died when protests against the results of presidential elections turned violent. The opposition says that the trial of the former foreign minister, Alexander Arzumanyan, and his co-defendants is politically motivated and that the government has done little to investigate allegations of police culpability.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

24 Officers to Be Freed, Iraqi Says

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/middleeast/20iraq.html
December 20, 2008
24 Officers to Be Freed, Iraqi Says
By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON and TAREQ MAHER [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [pretty constant attempts to recalibrate as spoilers seek to spoil the peace or to win at the negotiating table what they cannot win on the battle field] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [AQI and other jihadis elements diminished status equates to a shift toward AfPak where it should have stayed in the first place] [AQI are clearly trying to keep the focus in –ir] [****]
BAGHDAD — Iraq’s interior minister said all 24 of his officers who had been arrested in

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/middleeast/20iraq.html
December 20, 2008
24 Officers to Be Freed, Iraqi Says
By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON and TAREQ MAHER [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [pretty constant attempts to recalibrate as spoilers seek to spoil the peace or to win at the negotiating table what they cannot win on the battle field] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [AQI and other jihadis elements diminished status equates to a shift toward AfPak where it should have stayed in the first place] [AQI are clearly trying to keep the focus in –ir] [****]
BAGHDAD — Iraq’s interior minister said all 24 of his officers who had been arrested in a security crackdown this week would be released. And in a bold gesture of defiance, he publicly condemned his own government’s investigation, calling the accusations false and motivated purely by politics.

The minister, Jawad al-Bolani, in a series of interviews and at a news conference on Friday, insisted on the innocence of the officials detained on charges of aiding terrorism and having inappropriate ties with political parties, including Al Awda, an illegal party that is a descendant of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party.

“It’s because of the competition of the provincial elections,” Mr. Bolani, who arrived in the country on Friday after a week away, said of the arrests in an interview. “It’s just electoral propaganda, and that’s playing with fire.” [****]

In his forceful rejection of the charges, Mr. Bolani was careful not to mention names and was not specific in explaining how these arrests could benefit anyone specifically in the prelude to the crucial provincial elections next month. But it seemed, at least temporarily, to be a serious blow to Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, [***] given the crackdown’s close association with him.

It also seemed to raise the temperature of Iraqi politics, possibly fueling a rivalry between Mr. Bolani and Mr. Maliki, both prominent Shiite politicians, in a way that could damage either or both of them. Attempts to reach the prime minister’s spokesman were unsuccessful.

News of the arrests had already led to an angry response from other Iraqi political leaders, particularly those in rival parties to Dawa, Mr. Maliki’s party, who were angered by what they saw as a largely politically driven operation to intimidate rivals near the elections.

The Ministry of the Interior, which controls Iraq’s internal security, including its police forces, has a history of being affiliated with members of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a powerful Shiite party that is a rival to Dawa. Some officers were members of the Baath Party before the American invasion.

Mr. Maliki set up the committee overseeing the investigations, said Gen. Ahmed Abu Raqeef, one of the five security officials on the committee. And though officials have offered conflicting accounts, some reported that it was a security force that reports directly to Mr. Maliki that carried out the arrests.

The committee itself ordered the release, Mr. Bolani said. The state of the detained officials from other security agencies, like the Ministry of Defense, was unclear. The seriousness of the accusations rattled many leaders in Baghdad, where rumors of coups and political plotting are an epidemic. The anxiety remained even as officials played down the most significant of the charges.

Mr. Bolani’s move in seeking to free the officials could prove to be a breakthrough moment for him. Politically ambitious, Mr. Bolani has not been seen previously as a major political player, but he has been working to expand his secular Iraqi Constitutional Party.

An adviser to Mr. Bolani, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly, said that Mr. Bolani had pushed back when Mr. Maliki ordered arrests two months ago.

But even on Friday, as he insisted that the arrests be reversed, Mr. Bolani sought to avoid a head-on confrontation with Mr. Maliki. Asked about Mr. Maliki’s involvement in the operation, Mr. Bolani simply said, “Mr. Maliki is always on the side of justice.” He said he had not talked to Mr. Maliki but planned to do so in the coming days.

But he had strong words for the forces that ordered up and carried out the arrests.

“The information provided by the security sides is supposed to be accurate,” Mr. Bolani said. “They are supposed to be responsible for their information and to be sure before moving to the next step. To be frank, this operation lacks professionalism, especially on the issue of the arrests.”

He said he had been aware of the investigation but discounted it until he discovered that the charges included affiliation with Baath-related parties and a plot to target the Interior Ministry building in a terrorist operation.

Among those who had been under investigation, Mr. Bolani said, were an official who has been in the hospital awaiting surgery, a man who has already been in prison for months and a man who works in the archives department of the Interior Ministry taking care of files. Many of them, including one of the generals detained, worked in the traffic directorate.

“When and how are they going to occupy the ministry?” he asked. “Our officers are kept from their families and their kids because of insurgents and Al Qaeda and militias, and even their kids can’t be normal like other kids. Is this their reward after five years of sacrifices?”

Again, Mr. Bolani did not mention names, but an aide said that the charges were drawn up by the Ministry of National Security.

Mr. Bolani’s sudden declaration of the detainees’ innocence seemed at first to make an already murky series of events even less clear.

While officials on Thursday publicly rebutted rumors that had been circulating earlier in the week that the detained officials were in the very early stages of planning a coup, the spokesman for the Interior Ministry, Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf, said that they had been held on charges of being associated with Al Awda, a serious charge in itself.

Mr. Bolani said that General Khalaf had only been speaking from the information he had been provided in the charges, which, he said, came from secret informants.

“These charges are part of political targeting of the Ministry of Interior,” Mr. Bolani said. “I expect other plots and conspiracies against the Ministry of Interior in the coming days.”
Suadad al-Salhy contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Arrests Based on a 'Lie,' Iraqi Interior Chief Says

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/19/AR2008121903266.html
Arrests Based on a 'Lie,' Iraqi Interior Chief Says
By Sudarsan Raghavan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, December 20, 2008; A09 [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and fault lines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [AQI and other jihadis elements diminished status equates to a shift toward AfPak where it should have stayed in the first place] [they are clearly trying to keep the focus in –ir] [****]
BAGHDAD, Dec. 19 -- Iraq's interior minister on Friday angrily dismissed reports that a group of officials from his ministry was plotting to overthrow the government and said

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/19/AR2008121903266.html
Arrests Based on a 'Lie,' Iraqi Interior Chief Says
By Sudarsan Raghavan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, December 20, 2008; A09 [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and fault lines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [AQI and other jihadis elements diminished status equates to a shift toward AfPak where it should have stayed in the first place] [they are clearly trying to keep the focus in –ir] [****]
BAGHDAD, Dec. 19 -- Iraq's interior minister on Friday angrily dismissed reports that a group of officials from his ministry was plotting to overthrow the government and said the arrests of the men were politically motivated. [****] [whatever it is, it looks quite embarrassing from the administration’s standpoint] [****]

"It is a big lie. The public must understand this," Jawad al-Bolani told reporters at a news conference, referring to the accusations against the men. "It was clearly motivated by politics and was not related to security."

Bolani's comments came a day after an Interior Ministry spokesman announced the arrests of 23 of the ministry's officials, as well as some from other security ministries, on suspicion of attempting to reconstitute Saddam Hussein's Baath Party, [***] which was banned after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. [let’s be clear] [it was banned 2003] but by CPA’s Bremer not the Iraqis] [and while some robust debaathification was necessary, Bremer’s move was a power move to show administration “dove”s that Bremer was in control and he had the president’s ear] [the neocons won that round but a huge costs: military and baath party renderened inoperative in an instant, throwing scores of thousands of functionaries and ideologues out of work just as a sectrian cast was increasing along the violence inside –ir] [***]

On Friday, the ministry's director of internal affairs said the officials would be released within days. "We will release them very soon," Gen. Ahmed Abu Raqeef said in an interview. A national police official said the men could be released within 48 hours.

If true, that would raise questions about why the arrests were made in the first place. Critics of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have described them as a move to gain an advantage ahead of next month's crucial provincial elections, which could alter Iraq's political balance of power. [***]Maliki's aides have denied those accusations.

The prime minister and his Dawa party are facing competition from other Shiite parties vying for influence in Iraq's predominantly Shiite oil-rich south. His rivals now include Bolani, an independent Shiite, who recently founded his own political party.

"I am in charge, and anyone thinking of trying to harm the ministry and its men has to face me," Bolani said Friday. "I do not rule out that 'outside hands' were involved in this case." [just a tad authoritarian are we?] [***]

Meanwhile, a judge announced an investigation into the beating of Iraqi journalist Muntadar al-Zaidi moments after he threw two shoes at President Bush last Sunday at a news conference in Baghdad's Green Zone. The judge, Dhia al-Kinani, told the Associated Press that Zaidi had bruises on his face, including around his eyes. [what does one expect, really?] [the Iraqis have seen far more pictures and videos of US and coalition troops waterboarding, along with other harmful lessons—what do you suppose they are going to infer?] [*****]

An Iraqi court official confirmed that Kinani had ordered a probe and that he had asked for the names of all the guards who wrestled Zaidi to the ground after he threw the shoes. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters. Kinani could not be reached for comment.

Zaidi has been jailed since the attack and has not been seen by his relatives. His brother Oday has alleged that Zaidi has been physically abused, but police and government officials have denied that. On Friday, Zaidi's brothers and other relatives demonstrated outside the Green Zone, which houses the U.S. Embassy and Iraqi government offices.

Muntadar al-Zaidi, who has become a hero across the Arab world, could face a charge of insulting a visiting foreign leader, which carries a maximum penalty of seven years in prison.

Kinani confirmed that Zaidi had written a letter of apology to Maliki. The prime minister's spokesman, Yaseen Majeed, said Thursday that in the letter, Zaidi had asked for a pardon. Kinani told the Associated Press that the Zaidi case would be sent to criminal court Sunday and that a court date would be set within seven to 10 days.
Special correspondent Qais Mizher contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Kashmiris Weary of Violence Fight Back by Voting

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/asia/20kashmir.html
December 20, 2008
Kashmiris Weary of Violence Fight Back by Voting
By SOMINI SENGUPTA [Kashmir] [India-Pakistan] [Kashmir] [communal violence within and between that has led to the precipice of regional war multiple times] [followup ] [in 2002, nearly a war on sub continent when jihadis stormed New Delhi parliament and killed lawmakers] [well before and since, Hindu-Muslim progroms as the spark to regional war] [this appears to be jihadis revenge] [India is on edge with the recent spate of terrorist bombings] [use hydra II] [use psci 469b] [shades of 2001] [followup from past week or so] [though we didn’t know at the time, the Mumbai attacks hade commenced that would last some 60 hours and remind many of the trauma of 9/11] [so much for calmer heads] [it’s spinning dangerously out of control again] [****]
BOTHOO, Kashmir — More than a decade before last month’s attacks in Mumbai,

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/asia/20kashmir.html
December 20, 2008
Kashmiris Weary of Violence Fight Back by Voting
By SOMINI SENGUPTA [Kashmir] [India-Pakistan] [Kashmir] [communal violence within and between that has led to the precipice of regional war multiple times] [followup ] [in 2002, nearly a war on sub continent when jihadis stormed New Delhi parliament and killed lawmakers] [well before and since, Hindu-Muslim progroms as the spark to regional war] [this appears to be jihadis revenge] [India is on edge with the recent spate of terrorist bombings] [use hydra II] [use psci 469b] [shades of 2001] [followup from past week or so] [though we didn’t know at the time, the Mumbai attacks hade commenced that would last some 60 hours and remind many of the trauma of 9/11] [so much for calmer heads] [it’s spinning dangerously out of control again] [****]
BOTHOO, Kashmir — More than a decade before last month’s attacks in Mumbai, fighters from Lashkar-e-Taiba showed up here, turning this pine-ringed village in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir into a lair that became known as “the cat’s attic.”

Local residents immediately recognized that the men were different from the Kashmiri guerrillas who came before them. These fighters were mostly from the Punjab Province in Pakistan. They were well armed and well trained as well as ruthless. They introduced suicide bombings to Kashmir in 1999. The next year, they attacked a nearby Indian Army camp, [Sunni-Salafi (Wahabbi) jihadis] [***] recording the screams of the soldiers holed up inside and then playing them back to villagers, who delighted in the soldiers’ suffering.

But today, after years of being caught in the middle of an insurgency that was brutally crushed by Indian forces, Kashmiris are weary of the fighting. Lashkar fighters still make the treacherous passage over the hills from Pakistan, [***] people here say, though fewer of them come. The mostly Muslim valley is quieter than it has been in years. [age-old conondrum] [the good news is the masses are wearing and temporizing] [bad news is jihadis will feel the need to exploit new-found weariness] [therefore, expect trouble] [***]

In recent weeks, Kashmiris have even reached a watershed: channeling local grievances into polling booths and turning out in record numbers to vote in staggered state elections, which began Nov. 17 and end Wednesday.

Overall turnout figures have soared above 60 percent, according to the state election office, and by Kashmiri standards the voting has been notably free of violence and coercion. This time, the fighters, in what apparently was a concession to Kashmiri fatigue, did not threaten those who took part in the vote. In this district, turnout was 59 percent. [***]

But the fact that Kashmiris are turning out to vote does not mean that they have embraced Indian rule, as weeks of massive demonstrations this summer amply demonstrated. They continue to chafe under the restrictions of the Indian security forces, whose record on human rights in Kashmir has come under international criticism for years. Kashmiris are voting to demand ordinary things: roads, electricity, jobs. “The main problem here is unemployment,” Shafqat Shabir, 18, a first-time voter in the nearest town, Bandipur, [****]said last month on the day he cast his ballot.

He and his friends had taken part in the anti-Indian demonstrations, shouting azadi, or freedom. Freedom from Indian rule, said his friend Afaq Hussain Mir, 22, is “our birthright.”

That cause remains essential to Lashkar, and it is still the group’s most effective recruiting tool. Formed more than two decades ago with the help of Pakistani intelligence agencies, [the parallels to Taliban are stunning] [***] Lashkar originally had the mission of challenging India’s hold on this fertile valley.

As India-Pakistan peace talks progressed in recent years, Lashkar sharply decreased its attacks in Kashmir. At the same time, it moved on to bigger, higher-profile targets across India. [***]

Its targets are believed to have included a science center in southern Bangalore, a Hindu temple in eastern Varanasi and, the most audacious of all, Mumbai, the financial capital, where a three-day siege killed 163 people and 9 gunmen. While Lashkar has denied any link to the Mumbai attacks, the one surviving gunman, from among at least 10, said he belonged to the group and named known Lashkar [***]commanders as his trainers.

The link to Kashmir remains strong. The man who the Indian authorities say was the mastermind of the Mumbai attacks, Zaki ur-Rahman Lakhvi, once served as a commander here in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Residents say his son, known as Qasim, was among the Lashkar fighters who have more recently trickled over the border. In October 2007, Qasim was killed in an all-night gun battle with Indian soldiers on the outskirts of Bandipur. [***]

Sympathy for the guerrillas coexists with fear and frustration. When Lashkar fighters first came here, residents trekked down to the bazaar and bought provisions for them. Though they were brazen killers, people here said, the Lashkar cadres were well-behaved guests.[there went the neighborhood in retrospect] [***]

They did not interfere in village disputes, as members of some of the other guerrilla groups did. They did not harass women. They never ordered the men and women of Bothoo to stop praying at the shrine of a female Sufi saint, as other radical Islamist groups did, even if they never prayed there themselves.

But the people paid a dear price for the cadres’ presence. As Lashkar established itself here, Indian security forces fought back, turning this remote village into a war zone. Women lost their husbands. Men lost limbs. [***] [imagine the same dynamic for a weak or failed state!] [virtituly no authorities] For years, no one was safe.

After the Indian Army set up a camp in the middle of Bothoo, the village chief said, he begged the local Lashkar commander not to attack. If Lashkar did attack, the village chief said, he feared that the army would retaliate by burning the whole place down, as it had done elsewhere. [that the point in guerilla tactics] [Mao said the peasants are the sea in which the fish (the vanguard party) lived and for which the party took fiat control] [***]

The village chief spoke on the condition of anonymity, for fear of making enemies; his brother had been taken by Lashkar fighters who accused him of being an informant, and the man’s skeleton was found 21 days later.

Even today, loss hovers over these tin-roofed houses perched on the hill. Memories are raw. A woman in the village, Rosha Begum Reshi, said she lost her husband after Indian soldiers accused him of being a militant. They dragged him out of the house and shot him dead.

A man, Nazir Ahmad Reshi, lost a leg when members of another Pakistani militant group, Jaish-e-Muhammad, shot him as he tried to save a neighbor from their wrath. Today, at 28, he hobbles on crutches in and around his house. He cannot work. He cannot leave the village.

His father, Ghulam Reshi, spoke bitterly about the fighters who crossed the border from Pakistan. He no longer cared which group they belonged to. They were not welcome. “They wasted my son’s life,” he said. “Our own people didn’t commit these atrocities. It was as though they started sending convicted murderers from the other side.”

Despite such frustration, many still fear that without a political solution soon to the Kashmir conflict, Kashmiris, especially the young, will grow impatient and support insurgency once again.

For Kashmiris like Manzoor Ahmad Reshi, a carpenter, the prospect of more fighting inspires dread. In 1995, the army shot him in the right arm, he said. In 2002, the Jaish fighters shot him, he said, this time in the left ankle. He said he had been interrogated by the army eight times in the past 20 years.

The village has been quiet lately, but the Lashkar fighters still come to the woods around the notorious cat’s attic, villagers said. They carry satellite phones and are never without a full magazine of ammunition. They are fearless to the point of recklessness.
“The problem will not go away,” Manzoor Reshi said. “Unless there is a political solution, it will diminish; it will not go away.” [he may onLy be an unsophisticated analysis but he’s spot on here] [and though I gave Bush credit where due (roughly between 9/112001-fall 2002) the administration continues to be so obtuse as openly say the forward-leaning military posture is the only solution!] [part of their obduracy is the political box into which they stuffed themselves so they could continue to cast aspersions on Clinton] [while partly accurately, the Bush administration has become prisoner of its own calculations] [as post mortems increasingly focused negative attention on Bush’s first 9 months, Bushies had to try to fix blame more broadly] [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Japan Offers a Possible Roadmap for U.S. Economy

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/business/worldbusiness/20yen.html
December 20, 2008
News Analysis
Japan Offers a Possible Roadmap for U.S. Economy
By MARTIN FACKLER
TOKYO — When the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate to virtually zero earlier this week, what was a historic move in Washington seemed old hat here in Tokyo.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/business/worldbusiness/20yen.html
December 20, 2008
News Analysis
Japan Offers a Possible Roadmap for U.S. Economy
By MARTIN FACKLER
TOKYO — When the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate to virtually zero earlier this week, what was a historic move in Washington seemed old hat here in Tokyo.

The Bank of Japan kept rates near zero for most of the last decade in an effort to end a long economic stagnation, and raised them only two years ago. Many economists say they believe that the zero interest-rate policy finally worked in Japan after regulators took aggressive steps that succeeded in restoring faith in Japan’s financial system and Tokyo’s ability to oversee it.

Now, with the Fed and President-elect Barack Obama turning to the same sorts of unconventional policy tools to battle the worst global economic crisis since the Depression, economists and bankers say they hope that Japan’s lessons are not lost on Washington. They say the United States needs to take the same kinds of confidence-building steps, and much more quickly than Japan did.

“Japan had years of trial and error to gets its response right, but the United States doesn’t have that kind of time because markets are changing so fast,” said Akio Makabe, an economics professor at Shinshu University. “The Fed has to move, and has to move fast, to restore confidence.”

On Friday, the Bank of Japan cut its benchmark rate to 0.1 percent, from 0.3 percent, saying in a statement that it was following the Fed’s “dramatic rate cut” to lower borrowing costs and jolt global demand. On Tuesday, the Fed lowered short-term rates to a range of zero to 0.25 percent, and vowed to pump money directly into the credit markets by buying mortgage-related debt and corporate bonds.

The Bank of Japan also announced that it would try to shore up Japan’s credit markets by buying commercial paper, a type of short-term corporate debt. Central banks in Europe have also reduced rates amid concerns the global economy could contract next year for the first time in decades.

Tuesday’s rate cut by the Fed also made short-term borrowing costs lower in the United States than in Japan for the first time in 15 years. This helped drive up the yen to 13-year highs, as investors tend to favor currencies that offer higher rates of return. The Bank of Japan said its rate cut on Friday was partly aimed at capping the yen’s gains.

The Bank of Japan first lowered interest rates to zero in 1999 for a year and then again in 2001 for five years. The Japanese central bank was trying to contain a domestic financial crisis not unlike the one now crippling global markets, in which collapsing real estate and share prices caused the bankruptcy of large financial companies, like Yamaichi Securities in 1997.

The central bank’s hope was that by lowering borrowing costs to virtually nil, it could encourage commercial banks to lend more money to businesses and consumers, rekindling demand.

Economists and former Bank of Japan officials say the biggest lesson they learned was that cutting rates alone has almost no effect when the financial system has fallen into a crisis as deep as the one Japan faced in the 1990s.

Japanese banks simply refused to lend in an environment where borrowers could suddenly go bankrupt, saddling lenders with huge, unforeseen losses. The Bank of Japan tried even more extreme measures, like using its powers to create money to essentially stuff cash into the nation’s commercial banks in hopes they would start lending again.

Exasperated central bankers found that commercial banks just let the money pile up instead of lending it out.

Economists say the United States faces a similar situation, after the sudden collapse in September of Lehman Brothers created fears of additional failures. Economists also fault Washington for its inconsistency in dealing with the financial crisis, leaving the impression that it does not have a clear strategy for dealing with ailing lenders.

In Japan’s case, economists and former bankers say, credit began to flow freely again only after 2003, when regulators adopted a tough new policy of auditing banks and forcing weaker ones to raise new capital or accept a government takeover. Economists said the audits finally removed paralysis in credit markets by convincing bankers and investors that sudden failures were no longer a risk, and that the true extent of problems at banks and other companies was finally being revealed.

Economists say Washington needs to do something similar to make banks and financial companies more transparent, and reassure investors that there were no more collapses like that of Lehman Brothers on the horizon.

“The United States needs to do it like Takenaka did,” said Anil Kashyap, a professor of business at the University of Chicago, referring to Heizo Takenaka, the former banking minister who started the 2003 audits. “We need someone to come in and give a good housekeeping seal to banks.”

Economists and former central bankers said another lesson from Japan’s experience was the importance of consistency. This became painfully apparent in 2000, they said, during one of the bank’s more embarrassing episodes, when it raised interest rates, only to lower them back to zero a year later when the economy faltered.

Former Bank of Japan officials said they learned that bankers and investors would lend in difficult economic times only if they believed that rates would stay low for a long period, ensuring them adequate profits. By raising the possibility of future interest rate increases, the Bank of Japan dampened enthusiasm for lending, say bankers and economists.

“We learned that zero rates work by building expectations,” said Rei Masunaga, an economist and former director general at the Bank of Japan. “Zero interest rates take time to be effective.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Japan Admits POW Labor at Aso Mine

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/asia/20japan.html
December 20, 2008
Japan Admits POW Labor at Aso Mine
By NORIMITSU ONISHI
TOKYO — The Japanese government has acknowledged for the first time that Allied prisoners during World War II were made to work at a coal mine owned by the family of Prime Minister Taro Aso, contradicting longstanding denials by the Japanese leader.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/asia/20japan.html
December 20, 2008
Japan Admits POW Labor at Aso Mine
By NORIMITSU ONISHI
TOKYO — The Japanese government has acknowledged for the first time that Allied prisoners during World War II were made to work at a coal mine owned by the family of Prime Minister Taro Aso, contradicting longstanding denials by the Japanese leader.

The admission came after the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, under prodding from an opposition lawmaker, released documents showing that 300 Australian, British and Dutch prisoners of war worked at a mine owned by Aso Mining during the last four months of the war.

At a parliamentary session on Thursday, Foreign Ministry and health officials acknowledged the validity of the documents, about 43 pages retrieved from the basement of the Health Ministry’s building.

The acknowledgment was another embarrassment for Mr. Aso, whose popularity has plummeted since he took office only three months ago. His erratic stewardship over an increasingly shaky economy and a series of insulting remarks leveled at various groups, including the elderly, have pushed his approval ratings to about 20 percent and drawn public attacks from inside his own Liberal Democratic Party.

One of Japan’s wealthiest politicians, Mr. Aso, 67, has long denied what historians and survivors of his family’s coal mine have consistently said: that the mine, like many others during the war, had used prisoners of war as well as forced laborers from Asia. In the 1970s, Mr. Aso served as president of the family company, which is now called the Aso Group and is still run by his family.

Last month, when questioned in Parliament about the use of prisoners of war at his family’s mine, Mr. Aso said that “no facts have been confirmed” and that he was only “4 or 5 years old at the time.” Mr. Aso has yet to comment on the documents released by the Health Ministry.

Yukihisa Fujita, a legislator of the opposition Democratic Party who questioned Mr. Aso on the subject, said there had always been overwhelming evidence, including American government documents, of the mine’s use of prisoners of war.

“But Mr. Aso has consistently tried to escape responsibility,” Mr. Fujita said Friday in a telephone interview. “But there’s nowhere he can escape now with these official documents.”

Japan has long used the absence of official Japanese government documents to deny wartime crimes, rejecting documents from other countries or accounts of survivors. According to scholars, Japanese officials, to avoid prosecution, burned documents in Japan and across Asia in the days and weeks following the surrender to the United States. But many scholars believe that significant documents survive, as in the case of the 43 pages related to the Aso family mine.

The Japanese government, led for more than half a century by the Liberal Democratic Party, has long resisted pressure to release war-related documents. But the opposition’s capture of the upper house of Parliament last year has given it more power to seek information and documents from Japan’s powerful bureaucrats.

“There’s still a massive amount of documents on Aso Mining left in the basement of the Health Ministry,” Mr. Fujita said.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

After 30 Years, Economic Perils on China’s Path

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/asia/19china.html
December 19, 2008
After 30 Years, Economic Perils on China’s Path
By JIM YARDLEY [China] [PRC] [comparative ethos] [psci350] [how the CCP, the Party. Has been able to keep social modernity] [indirect evidence for these accepted by moderate Dems and Repub that economic liberalization leads to political liberalization] [****]
SHENZHEN, China — The ruling Communist Party threw itself a big party on Thursday. The country’s leadership marked the 30th anniversary of the reform era that transformed China into a global economic power and, in doing so, changed the world.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/asia/19china.html
December 19, 2008
After 30 Years, Economic Perils on China’s Path
By JIM YARDLEY [China] [PRC] [comparative ethos] [psci350] [how the CCP, the Party. Has been able to keep social modernity] [indirect evidence for these accepted by moderate Dems and Repub that economic liberalization leads to political liberalization] [****]
SHENZHEN, China — The ruling Communist Party threw itself a big party on Thursday. The country’s leadership marked the 30th anniversary of the reform era that transformed China into a global economic power and, in doing so, changed the world.

At a triumphant ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, President Hu Jintao invoked Deng Xiaoping, who consolidated power in 1978 and began “reform and opening.” Mr. Hu emphasized the party’s unwavering focus on economic development. “Only development makes sense,” said Mr. Hu, quoting Deng.

But beyond the oratory, Mr. Hu and other Chinese leaders are now facing a new era in which Deng’s export-led economic model, as well as his iron-fisted political control, face unprecedented challenges. Global demand for Chinese goods has slumped, unrest is on the rise in the industrial heartland, and China is scrambling for a new formula to preserve stability and ensure growth.

The downturn is so swift — exports fell last month for the first time in seven years — that Beijing is being forced to abruptly shift priorities. Until recently, Mr. Hu had been trying to curb excesses like rampant pollution and income inequality that posed environmental and social challenges to long-term development. Now, those priorities seem eclipsed.

Instead, leaders are restoring tax breaks for exporters and pushing down the value of China’s currency to encourage exports. At the same time, they are casting about for ways to spur domestic demand and wean China’s economy off its dependence on foreign markets swept up in the global financial crisis.

Politically, Chinese reformers had hoped the symbolic weight of the anniversary and the nation’s post-Olympic glow might propel some measure of political reform to address official corruption and help defuse rising social tensions.

But as Beijing worries about strikes and mass layoffs even in some of its most prosperous areas, official tolerance of political dissent has seemingly narrowed. This month, a prominent dissident was detained after writing an open letter calling for greater democracy. An editor at one of the country’s leading newspapers was reassigned after publishing articles deemed too politically provocative. “We must draw on the benefits of humankind’s political civilization,” Mr. Hu said in his Thursday speech, according to Reuters. “But we will never copy the model of the Western political system.”

If any place symbolizes China’s reform era, it is Shenzhen, a city conceived from Deng’s imagination — and one now in the cross hairs of the economic downturn. Thursday’s celebration was timed to a 1978 political meeting, the Third Plenum, which anointed Deng as China’s leader and introduced “reform and opening.” Two years later, Deng pointed at a sleepy fishing village in coastal southern China, near Hong Kong, and ordained it the country’s first “special economic zone” to experiment with foreign investment and export manufacturing. Today, Shenzhen is a city of more than 10 million people ringed by thousands of factories.

A factory district just outside Shenzhen, Fuqiao Industrial Park, is a snapshot of the economic troubles rippling through the region. Several small factories in the park have closed in recent months. At Wang Jinda Industries, the lettering had been scraped off the entrance after the owner closed last week. Two customers had arrived for a shipment of goods only to find an empty factory.

Meanwhile, some factories that remained open were struggling. Workers at a large printing factory said the owners had stopped recruiting new workers in September while many others had quit. Several workers said wages had dropped significantly as the owners were reducing the length of shifts. A few workers accused owners of deliberately trying to drive down wages to force workers to quit. “Everybody is worried,” said Lin Baozeng, 26, a cashier at a canteen inside the industrial park. Her daily lunch crowd has dwindled to about 100 migrant workers from 500.

“If the economy is bad,” Ms. Lin added as her 3-year-old daughter played nearby, “how can I afford to raise my child?”

As yet, gauging the scale of factory closings remains difficult in Shenzhen and surrounding Guangdong Province, the country’s main export engine. Guangdong was already making a concerted effort to move up the manufacturing value chain at a time when rising labor costs and greater government regulations were making some smaller, cheaper exporters unprofitable. But the recent export slowdown is having an unanticipated impact. More than 7,000 small- and medium-sized factories have closed in recent months. Shenzhen’s mayor said 50,000 people in the city alone had lost their jobs in the last few months.

And there are mounting signs that the problems could be far broader. Over all, China’s economy will continue to expand next year, but some economists say the rate of growth could fall as low as 5 or 6 percent, far slower than the double-digit pace of the preceding several years.

State media have reported that 4.85 million migrant workers have returned to the countryside early before next month’s annual Lunar New Year holiday. Some inland provinces have already announced subsidies for unemployed returnees. On Thursday, the country’s official news agency, Xinhua, reported that 6.5 million migrant workers may be jobless next year.

Beijing has recently restored some export subsidies that had been repealed as part of earlier efforts to rebalance the economy toward domestic demand. Huang Yasheng, a management professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said such subsidies made short-term political sense, given the huge numbers of jobs provided by factories, but did not address China’s long-term economic challenges. “I see the export supports as a crisis measure,” Mr. Huang said. “They really have no other way to maintain employment.”

Mr. Huang said the government’s focus on exports and expanding the role of state-owned corporations since the 1990s had meant too little of the country’s wealth had trickled down to ordinary people. He said household incomes had lagged well behind overall growth, meaning that hundreds of millions of ordinary people still had relatively little spending money — a major problem when the government is trying to rapidly increase domestic consumption. “It’s a huge challenge,” said Mr. Huang, author of a recent book, “Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics.”

China’s immediate answer is a stimulus program focused on infrastructure like railways and ports. State-owned banks are being ordered to make credit easily available, and business taxes on real estate sales were waived this week. Such steps may be crucial to buttressing the Chinese economy and preventing a deeper global recession. Yet some Chinese officials are wary of the potential impact of another phase of state-led industrial development.

The government stimulus program enacted in response to the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis enabled China to avoid the recessions suffered by neighboring nations. Yet it also propelled the enormous investment in heavy industry that is a major reason China is now the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

In an opinion article in the online edition of People’s Daily, Pan Yue, the outspoken vice minister of the Ministry of Environment, blamed Western excess for the global crisis and warned that China risked ruin if it blindly pursued Western industrial models.

“China’s reform and opening has achieved in 30 years the economic gains of more than 100 years in the West — yet more than 100 years of environmental pollution in the West have materialized in 30 years in China,” Mr. Pan wrote. “The present global economic crisis shows that if China continues down the old road of Western industrial civilization, it will only come to a dead end.”

China is a far more open and dynamic place than the country Deng first unleashed three decades ago. Much of that change has come from ordinary people pushing for more space in society, just as much of China’s economic success has come from the entrepreneurial energy and hard work of its work force. Yet Communist Party leaders have been careful to hoard political power: independent unions and political opposition remain illegal.

Earlier this year, Shenzhen’s leaders seemed eager to position the city as a pioneer of political reform. Shenzhen officials published a reform plan that advocated some local elections and greater leeway for local legislatures and courts to make decisions. But those plans, later tempered by provincial leaders, now seem derailed as officials are focused on maintaining social stability.

Some influential Chinese say more should be done. Yu Keping, a scholar at a leading Communist Party research institute who has advised top leaders, published essays this week in leading Chinese newspapers about the need for greater democratization to combat corruption.

In an interview with The New York Times, Mr. Yu called for “breakthrough reform.” But he also said that change must come incrementally, given the need for social stability, with an initial emphasis on better governing and rule of law. “We need to promote democratization in China,” Mr. Yu said. “On the other hand, we need to promote social stability. If we had an election right now, we might end up like Thailand.”

In fact, the limited momentum toward modest political change could well be sidelined by economic problems, some experts say. “A real huge question is how the economic downturn is going to affect any sort of political reform,” said Joseph Fewsmith, a Boston University professor who studies Chinese politics. He said officials might deliberately slow efforts to carry out a new rural land reform law approved this fall to grant farmers the ability to transfer their land rights.

“People worried about social stability are going to proceed very, very slowly,” Mr. Fewsmith said.
Zhang Jing and Huang Yuanxi contributed research.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Rwandan Officer Found Guilty of 1994 Genocide

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/africa/19rwanda.html
December 19, 2008
Rwandan Officer Found Guilty of 1994 Genocide
By LYDIA POLGREEN [Congo] [DRC] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved at time] [is the Hutu-Tutsi blood bath flowing into Congo?] [nominally if symbolically important ] [justice languishes but at small but important “justice” in a part of the world where justice is not a given] [******]
ACCRA, Ghana — A senior Rwandan military officer charged with being one of the masterminds of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda was convicted on Thursday by a United

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/africa/19rwanda.html
December 19, 2008
Rwandan Officer Found Guilty of 1994 Genocide
By LYDIA POLGREEN [Congo] [DRC] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved at time] [is the Hutu-Tutsi blood bath flowing into Congo?] [nominally if symbolically important ] [justice languishes but at small but important “justice” in a part of the world where justice is not a given] [******]
ACCRA, Ghana — A senior Rwandan military officer charged with being one of the masterminds of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda was convicted on Thursday by a United Nations court in Tanzania of genocide and sentenced to life in prison.

Col. Theoneste Bagosora, 67, is the most senior military official to have been convicted in connection with the genocide, in which bands of Hutu massacred 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu. He was a leading Hutu extremist and the cabinet director for Rwanda’s Defense Ministry at the start of the slaughter. He and three other senior army officers had been on trial since 2002 at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, which is based in Arusha, Tanzania.

In a statement, the United Nations tribunal said it had sentenced Colonel Bagosora and two other Rwandan military officers who were also on trial, Maj. Aloys Ntabakuze and Col. Anatole Nsengiyumva, to life imprisonment for “genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes.” A fourth co-defendant, Gen. Gratien Kabiligi, was acquitted of all charges and released by the court.

The court said Colonel Bagosora was “the highest authority in the Rwandan Defense Ministry, with authority over the military” in the days after the death of President Juvenal Habyarimana on April 6, 1994.

The president, a Hutu, died when his plane was shot down in Kigali, the Rwandan capital. His death sparked the three-month wave of killing.

The fate of that plane remains a topic of great controversy and speculation. Hutu militants blamed Tutsi rebels for shooting it down and argued that the killings that followed were the spontaneous rage of average Rwandans.

The Tutsi rebels have argued that the militant Hutu, perhaps with France’s help, may have been involved, hoping to create the pretext for a long-planned extermination of the Tutsi. Rwanda has threatened senior French officials with indictments, while France has responded by seeing to the arrest of a top aide to Paul Kagame, the Rwandan president, in connection with the crash.

The speed and violence of the genocide was evident in the court’s findings.

It ruled that the day after the plane attack in 1994 Colonel Bagosora was responsible for the killing of the Rwandan prime minister, Agathe Uwilingiyimana; the president of the Constitutional Court, Joseph Kavaruganda; and three top opposition figures: Frederic Nzamurambaho, Landoald Ndasingwa and Faustin Rucogoza. These events set the stage for the slaughter that was to follow.

Colonel Bagosora was also found guilty in connection with the killing of 10 Belgian peacekeepers by soldiers at Camp Kigali, and in the organized killings by soldiers and militiamen throughout Kigali and Gisenyi, in the west of the country.

However, the court cleared Colonel Bagosora and the others on trial of conspiring to commit genocide before April 7, 1994. The trial lasted six years, during which 242 witnesses were heard.

The charges against General Kabiligi were dismissed after he provided an alibi, and “it was also not proven that he had operational authority or that he targeted civilians,” the court said.

The exclusion of the conspiracy charge against the men is a blow to Rwandan officials, said Alison Desforges of Human Rights Watch, because it undercuts their argument that the genocide was not a one-time event but the inevitable product of an anti-Tutsi atmosphere dating from the colonial era.

“It brings us back to reality and says this genocide was a discrete historical event related to a specific set of circumstances,” Ms. Desforges said.

Human rights officials hailed the conviction of Colonel Bagosora, calling it a strike against impunity but also a reminder to anyone committing atrocities in armed conflict. It has particular resonance for the belligerents spawning chaos in eastern Congo, said Paul van Zyl of the International Center for Transitional Justice, a rights group based in New York.

“The conviction should send a signal to all people with ongoing responsibility for atrocities in Congo,” he said. “If they are in effective control of armed forces, whether they are state troops, a rebel group or guerrillas, they are potentially criminally liable.”

Given the mounting evidence that Rwanda is playing a role in backing the renegade Congolese general Laurent Nkunda, that warning could apply to the men who claim credit for ending the genocide and now govern Rwanda, said René Lemarchand, an Africa scholar who has been writing about the troubled Great Lakes region for decades.

General Nkunda says he is fighting to protect a Tutsi minority from the Hutu militiamen who fled Rwanda and remain hidden in Congo’s sprawling forests.

“Everybody has dirty hands” in eastern Congo, Mr. Lemarchand said. “But I think it is a good time to take our distance toward Rwanda and recognize there is still an awful lot of dirty linen to be washed.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Truce in Gaza Ends, but May Be Revived by Necessity

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/middleeast/20mideast.html
December 20, 2008
News Analysis
Truce in Gaza Ends, but May Be Revived by Necessity
By ETHAN BRONNER [Israeli-Palestinian conflict] [apparently some settlers not so keen to stay in Palestinian state] [others, of course, militantly intend to stay even with Palestinians all round them] [never-ending cycle of violence] [followup] [the fragile “truce” between Israel and Gaza (Hamistan)] [it so eerily fragile that the continue to scare out of principals wherein they may actualy need each other more] [*****]
JERUSALEM — Rockets are flying from Gaza into southern Israeli communities again. Israeli warplanes are firing missiles back, and Israel is closing the crossings through

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/world/middleeast/20mideast.html
December 20, 2008
News Analysis
Truce in Gaza Ends, but May Be Revived by Necessity
By ETHAN BRONNER [Israeli-Palestinian conflict] [apparently some settlers not so keen to stay in Palestinian state] [others, of course, militantly intend to stay even with Palestinians all round them] [never-ending cycle of violence] [followup] [the fragile “truce” between Israel and Gaza (Hamistan)] [it so eerily fragile that the continue to scare out of principals wherein they may actualy need each other more] [*****]
JERUSALEM — Rockets are flying from Gaza into southern Israeli communities again. Israeli warplanes are firing missiles back, and Israel is closing the crossings through which food and fuel are supplied. The United Nations agency that feeds Palestinian refugees in Gaza says its stocks of flour are exhausted.

In other words, the six-month truce that Israel and Hamas, the militant Palestinian leaders of Gaza, agreed to on June 19 is over. On Friday, Hamas officially declared in a statement that the ceasefire had expired, saying the truce would not be renewed because Israel was failing to fulfill its “fundamental conditions and obligations.” The end of the truce was greeted by relative calm, with only a scattering of rocket attacks and no major Israeli military activity. Officials and analysts on both sides say that things are likely to deteriorate further in the short term, but that both sides need the truce, so they will probably grope their way back to it. The question is how soon and after how much suffering.

Israel and Hamas accuse each other of bad faith and of violations of the Egyptian-mediated accord, and each side has a point. Rockets from Gaza never stopped entirely during the truce, and Israel never allowed a major renewed flow of goods into Gaza, crippling its economy. This is at least partly because the agreement had no mutually agreed text or enforcement mechanism; neither side wanted to grant the legitimacy to the other that such a document would imply.

“I think it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better,” remarked Robert A. Pastor, who has been traveling in the region with former President Jimmy Carter, meeting with Hamas and other officials. “It did lead to a significant reduction in the number of rockets fired at Israel until November, but the truce had less impact on the goods going in. One hopes both sides learn lessons and agree on a text and publicize it.”

There seems little likelihood of that happening soon. Hamas considers Israel an illegitimate state and is doctrinally committed to its destruction, while Israel views Hamas as a terrorist group that must be dismantled. Yet each needs the other to hold its fire. That is why negotiations over another truce have started, again through Egypt. Separately, the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, was due to hold what is likely to be a final meeting with President Bush in Washington on Friday to discuss peace negotiations. He had called for Hamas to renew the truce.

Hamas officials say it was their understanding at the time that two weeks after the June 19 accord took effect Israel would open the crossings and allow the transfer of goods that had been banned or restricted after June 2007, when Hamas waged a violent takeover of Gaza.

Their job, the Hamas officials said, was to stop the rocket attacks on Israel not only from its own armed groups, but also from others based in Gaza, including Islamic Jihad and Al Aksa Martyrs Brigades.

It took some days, but they were largely successful. Hamas imposed its will and even imprisoned some of those who were firing rockets. Israeli and United Nations figures show that while more than 300 rockets were fired into Israel in May, 10 to 20 were fired in July, depending on who was counting and whether mortar rounds were included. In August, 10 to 30 were fired, and in September, 5 to 10.

But the goods shipments, while up some 25 to 30 percent and including a mix of more items, never began to approach what Hamas thought it was going to get: a return to the 500 to 600 truckloads delivered daily before the closing, including appliances, construction materials and other goods essential for life beyond mere survival. Instead, the number of trucks increased to around 90 from around 70.

Israeli officials acknowledged that transferring previously banned goods had been the plan, but said that there was no specific date for the increase and that it was to happen in steps. But the rockets never fully stopped.

“The Palestinians wanted to have one or two rockets a week to keep our people in tension and still tell people inside Gaza, ‘See, we continue to fight and we continue to bring in goods,’” said Shlomo Dror, chief spokesman for Israel’s Defense Ministry. “The moment we fail to react to one rocket we encourage them. Our only choice was to close the crossings when rockets came in.”

In addition, Israeli forces continued to attack Hamas and other militants in the West Bank, prompting Palestinian militants in Gaza to fire rockets. The Israeli military also found several dozen improvised explosive devices used against its vehicles on the Gaza border and about a dozen cases of sniper fire from Gaza directed at its forces.

While this back-and-forth did not topple the agreement, Israel’s decision in early November to destroy a tunnel Hamas had been digging near the border drove the cycle of violence to a much higher level. Israel says the tunnel could have been dug only for the purpose of trying to seize a soldier, like Cpl. Gilad Shalit, the Israeli held by Hamas for the past two and a half years. Israel’s attack on the tunnel killed six Hamas militants, and each side has stepped up attacks since.

Israel was actually hoping that the agreement would lead to progress on Corporal Shalit’s release, or at least to increased information on his condition or negotiations over an exchange for him. But Hamas said the Shalit case was entirely separate from the accord, just as Israel had rejected the request by Hamas to have the truce suspend attacks on its men in the West Bank. There, too, Hamas had hopes that the accord would create some changes that did not take place.

Israel’s focus on Corporal Shalit and Hamas’s focus on the West Bank are examples of why the agreement, without a text or enforcement mechanism, has been so problematic, with each side relying on its own desires rather than on mutually agreed steps. But given each side’s refusal to acknowledge the other’s legitimacy, another such accord of winks and nods seems the likely outcome of any coming negotiations.
Taghreed El-Khodary contributed reporting from Gaza.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

An Inquiry in Baghdad Is Clouded by Politics

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/middleeast/19iraq.html
December 19, 2008
An Inquiry in Baghdad Is Clouded by Politics
By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON and TAREQ MAHER [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and fault lines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [AQI and other jihadis elements diminished status equates to a shift toward AfPak where it should have stayed in the first place] [they are clearly trying to keep the focus in –ir] [****]
BAGHDAD — Iraqi officials on Thursday confirmed a wave of arrests in what appeared

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/middleeast/19iraq.html
December 19, 2008
An Inquiry in Baghdad Is Clouded by Politics
By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON and TAREQ MAHER [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and fault lines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [AQI and other jihadis elements diminished status equates to a shift toward AfPak where it should have stayed in the first place] [they are clearly trying to keep the focus in –ir] [****]
BAGHDAD — Iraqi officials on Thursday confirmed a wave of arrests in what appeared to be a major internal crackdown inside the nation’s security apparatus. But in an atmosphere of secrecy and political rivalry, the officials could agree on few other facts, from the number detained to the seriousness of the allegations.

At a news conference on Thursday, Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf, the spokesman for the Interior Ministry, repeated some of the more serious allegations that had leaked out the night before. He told reporters that 23 officials from the Interior Ministry had been arrested in recent days, many for being affiliated with Al Awda, [***]a descendant of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party, which is now banned.

In a possible indication of the breadth of the investigation, the Interior Ministry said that the investigation involved not only the ministry itself, as had been reported, but also the Defense and National Security Ministries. Others said that the investigation was not over and that more arrests could be expected.

But General Khalaf sought to discredit the most serious of the allegations made earlier by Iraqi officials, saying there was no evidence that the suspects were in the early stages of planning a coup against Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. [***]

The conflicting accounts of the operation prompted an urgent question from Mr. Maliki’s critics: Were the arrests politically motivated, carried out as a way for Mr. Maliki to weaken his rivals before the nationwide provincial elections planned for next month?

Suspicions were fueled by reports that a counterterrorism force overseen directly by Mr. Maliki was part of the operation, though several officials denied it. [***]

Mahmoud Othman, an independent Kurdish lawmaker, said questions had been raised by the shifting accusations he and other Iraqi political leaders had heard in the past several days: that the detainees were planning a coup; that they belonged to Al Awda; and that they planned to burn down the ministry. [why is this guy’s name so familiar] [***]

Also, the officials arrested seem to have come disproportionately from the Interior Ministry, an agency dominated by members of Mr. Maliki’s rival parties. [Iraqis have played politics as full contact sport for some 6 millennia] [****]

“These conflicting stories and the lack of transparency has led some people to think that this is all politically motivated and has to do with the election,” Mr. Othman said.

The arrests came about as part of the work of a committee set up two weeks ago by Mr. Maliki, said Gen. Ahmed Abu Raqeef, the director of internal affairs for the Interior Ministry.

Initial accounts provided by Iraqi security officials, and published by The New York Times on Thursday, said that General Raqeef was among those arrested. But on Thursday he said that account was wrong. In fact, he said, he was part of the committee overseeing the investigation of Iraqi security officials on a number of charges.

The committee is made up of a judge and five senior security officials, General Raqeef said, including representatives from the three security ministries — the Interior, Defense and National Security Ministries.

The group has been investigating officials suspected of making fake security badges, enabling terrorist activities or having inappropriate ties with foreign countries or political parties, including Al Awda.

General Raqeef said that so far there was no solid proof implicating the security officials, at least the ones from the Interior Ministry. But he said that he had ordered the detention of 16 officials from the ministry as part of the investigation, which is continuing. He said he did not know how many were held from the other security ministries.

A senior adviser to Jawad al-Bolani, the interior minister, who did not want to give his name because he was not authorized to speak publicly, provided a list of names and ranks of 24 Interior Ministry officials he said were arrested, which includes lieutenants, captains, majors, lieutenant colonels and generals. [not huge but the reaction will likely be overwrought by Sunni who will perforce be (and understandably so) hypersensitive] [****]

Abas al-Bayati, a member of the security and defense committee in the Parliament, said that more than 30 Interior Ministry officials had been detained.

It is just as uncertain how many were detained at other ministries. Brig. Gen. Qassim Atta, a military spokesman, said one official from the Defense Ministry had been arrested. Ayad al-Taei, the public relations director at the Interior Ministry, said seven Defense Ministry officials had been detained.

The minister of defense himself, Abdul Qadir al-Ubaidi, said he had not received information about any arrests.

A senior security official in Baghdad, who is not authorized to speak publicly about the operation, said there had been at least 39 arrests among all the ministries and that 4 had occurred on Thursday.

Many Iraqi officials reacted to the news of detentions and secret investigations with anger. [if all sides p’p’d by it, the administration probably doing something close to correct] [****]

“This is not the first time and it will be not the last one that the Iraqi government carried out such an operation without the knowledge of the Council of Representatives, which is a legislative and monitoring entity on the government’s activities,” said Waleed Sherka, a Turkmen member of Parliament who is also on the security and defense committee. “We certainly didn’t know about it.”

The adviser to Mr. Bolani said that the prime minister had been privately pushing for the arrest of a number of Interior officials for two months, but that Mr. Bolani had pushed back, insisting that the officials were innocent.

Mr. Bolani’s hand was forced, however, when the other ministries agreed to form the committee and so he gave his assent, the adviser said, attributing the episode to the political rivalry between Mr. Bolani, who is building his own Iraqi Constitutional Party, and Mr. Maliki.

However, both General Raqeef and Mr. Taei, the public relations director for the Interior Ministry, said the interior minister fully supported the formation of the committee.
Mr. Bolani has been traveling but is expected to return to Iraq on Friday.
Suadad al-Salhy, Riyadh Mohammed and Atheer Kakan contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

China Confirms It Will Join Piracy Fight

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/asia/19briefs-CHINACONFIRM_BRF.html
December 19, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
China Confirms It Will Join Piracy Fight
By MARK McDONALD [China] [PRC] [joining the growing collection of principally nation-

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/asia/19briefs-CHINACONFIRM_BRF.html
December 19, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
China Confirms It Will Join Piracy Fight
By MARK McDONALD [China] [PRC] [joining the growing collection of principally nation-state actors] [note both India and now China have “helpfully” committed to maitain the world’s most critical shipping lanes] [finite fossil fuels reach scarcity more quickly as extraneous actors—Somalia brigands, warlords, others literally dip into and affect prices] [pretty clever of China and India to expand their respective naval capabilities while doing so for the good of global community] [diplomatic sweet spot] [psci350 [****]
The Chinese government confirmed Thursday that it would send naval ships to the Gulf of Aden to help in the fight against piracy there. The mission, which is expected to begin in about two weeks, would be the first modern deployment of Chinese warships outside the Pacific. The announcement came as the captain of a Chinese cargo ship that was attacked Wednesday in the gulf said his crew had used beer bottles, fire hoses and homemade bombs to battle a gang of pirates.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Tensions Rise as Afghans Say U.S. Raid Killed Civilians

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/asia/19afghan.html
December 19, 2008
Tensions Rise as Afghans Say U.S. Raid Killed Civilians
By ADAM B. ELLICK [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [awaiting Patraeus’ counterinsurgency program?] [meanwhile jihadis show no floor on level of depravity—using small boys as suicide bombers] [use psci469b] [sadly as coalition continues to experience frustrations, the overreact] [pretty common dynamic nonetheless and on Patraeus would be expeted to understand well] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — A deadly United States military raid on a house near

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/asia/19afghan.html
December 19, 2008
Tensions Rise as Afghans Say U.S. Raid Killed Civilians
By ADAM B. ELLICK [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [awaiting Patraeus’ counterinsurgency program?] [meanwhile jihadis show no floor on level of depravity—using small boys as suicide bombers] [use psci469b] [sadly as coalition continues to experience frustrations, the overreact] [pretty common dynamic nonetheless and on Patraeus would be expeted to understand well] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — A deadly United States military raid on a house near Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan became a new source of tension on Thursday, with the Americans calling it a successful counterterrorism strike and the Afghans saying it left three innocent civilians dead and two wounded, including a 4-year-old boy bitten by an attack dog. [sadly, action-reaction dymanic goes badly] ***]

The raid took place on Wednesday in the village of Kundi, in Khost Province. American military leaders and Afghan officials said they were investigating the conflicting accounts of what happened. But President Hamid Karzai, who has grown increasingly impatient with the American-led war effort against the Taliban insurgency, condemned the raid in front of government leaders and foreign diplomats, saying that “entering by force to our people’s houses is against the government of Afghanistan.”

Mr. Karzai, who will face an election next year, is under enormous pressure from Afghans who say the seven-year-old war against the Taliban has devastated the country and led to many civilian casualties at the hands of American-led forces. The raid took place on the same day that diplomats in Kabul called on foreign forces to increase their sensitivity to win over Afghans. [consider it from local Islamist or or Afghani nationalist perspetive] [before Taliban chaos and riven with corruption and warlordism] [even the northern alliance, which was what the administration used to topple Taliban were corrupt and exploited every last Afghani peasant that could be exploited] [Taliban were dogmatic and not well like but peasant could at least count upon some predictability, carrying on normal life without daily shake-down taxes] [this can be taken advantage of but it requires [****]


In Khost, American-led forces blasted the gate of the house early on Wednesday, then fatally shot the family’s father and mother and a male relative, according to Tahir Khan Sabry, deputy governor of the province. Their relationship with the wounded boy was unclear, and another woman was also bitten. Mr. Sabry described all the victims as noncombatant civilians.

The American military said that the raid led to the detention of an operative of Al Qaeda and that those killed were armed and showing “hostile intent.” Grenades, AK-47s, pistols and a shotgun were confiscated, American officials said. [hardly predictive of much] [virtually everyone is armed in Afghanistan] [only truly downtrodden aren’t relatively well armed] [****

The dispute over the Khost raid coincided with a visit to Afghanistan by Senator John Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts, who said the United States needed to win local support for the war.

In recent months, the governor of Khost, Arsala Jamal, has frequently complained about the actions of United States Special Forces here. He said episodes that harmed civilians undermined the progress of reconstruction efforts.

In Khost, public outrage over the house raid was visible at the funerals for those who were killed. The use of dogs in military actions is especially delicate for Afghans after the release of images showing dogs being used to intimidate detainees at the Bagram prison in Afghanistan and Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq.

“I saw the 4-year-old boy, and he had an injury under his knee that was definitely the mark of a dog bite,” said Rasoul Adel, a local television reporter. [whether a coalition troops was rattling some kid’s cage or entirely different circumstances, it feeds the narrative—I so hate that cliché--
Abdul Waheed Wafa and Carlotta Gall contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Pakistan: Supply Route Is Protested

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/africa/19morocco.html
December 19, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
Pakistan: Supply Route Is Protested
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [attacks may be worth it—apparently at least some al Qaeda operatives] [but my general impression remains] [breaches of sovereignty largely being wasted on tactical rather than strategic gains] [it’s now conventional wisdom that Pres Bush made the decision to go medieval in July] [however, Pakistan is cauldron of failed state, communal violence, and a citizenry that believes the US does not have Pakistan’s interests in mind—and not without good cause] [almost wholly eclipsed by Mumbai but it’s of course ongoing and serious] [use psci469b] [followup] [***]
Thousands of antigovernment protesters demanded Thursday that Pakistan shut the

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/africa/19morocco.html
December 19, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
Pakistan: Supply Route Is Protested
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [attacks may be worth it—apparently at least some al Qaeda operatives] [but my general impression remains] [breaches of sovereignty largely being wasted on tactical rather than strategic gains] [it’s now conventional wisdom that Pres Bush made the decision to go medieval in July] [however, Pakistan is cauldron of failed state, communal violence, and a citizenry that believes the US does not have Pakistan’s interests in mind—and not without good cause] [almost wholly eclipsed by Mumbai but it’s of course ongoing and serious] [use psci469b] [followup] [***]
Thousands of antigovernment protesters demanded Thursday that Pakistan shut the route along which supplies are ferried to American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. [what is Patraeus doing?] [I know he has to await new administration. But wth?] [this issues flared up 2-3 months ago] The demonstration, staged by more than 10,000 people in the city of Peshawar, also focused on a recent series of American missile strikes against targets suspected of belonging to Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan’s tribal areas. Leaders of the demonstration drew links between the missile attacks and the supply line, saying the equipment was being used for attacks on Pakistani soil and vowing to shut down the convoys.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Moroccan Convicted in Madrid Blasts

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/africa/19morocco.html
December 19, 2008
Moroccan Convicted in Madrid Blasts
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Morocco] [Islamic Maghreb] [northern Africa into central

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/world/africa/19morocco.html
December 19, 2008
Moroccan Convicted in Madrid Blasts
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Morocco] [Islamic Maghreb] [northern Africa into central western to horn] [broader middle east] [evidence has recently appeared that former Salfist Group for Combat and Preaching—same group that plagued Algeria during 1990s and joined up with OBL’s al Qaeda central (AfPak)] more recently, evidence of nexuses in Malwi Sharaha, Chad and even Libya] [unclear what links may exist between new franchies in Sudan Somalia, intellectual fellow travelers] [what does appear clear is the are cross pollinating vis-à-vis training, technology, propoganda, financing, and other non-sate actors’ function sectors] various interpretations are possible] [1) they are fragmenting and power is diffusing outward] [is this indication of weakness (that is, OBL’s original Agfhan bureau) and 2nd and 3rd generation jihadis] [is something along those lines near inevetiable over time?] [more ominously, does it indicate that younger jihadis who have been partically acculturated in new host societies simply becoming more agile, organized on their contemporary themes, so on] [use psci469b] [I know this: highly respected expert such as Peter Bergan think latter s the case for which I truly hop] [I also know this, after dismissing jihadis as rank amateurs following 1993 Trade Center Attacks, once I awoke to, I swore never to underestimate them—while it’s dangerous to overestimate them, I think it’s even worse to underestimate the] [***\]
RABAT, Morocco (AP) — A criminal court in Morocco convicted a 31-year-old man on Thursday of belonging to a terrorist group involved in the 2004 Madrid train bombings and sentenced him to 20 years in prison. [***] [another Madrid plotter convicted—seems at outer bound of jihadis suicide bomber prototype, he’s was 5 years’ younger]]

Prosecutors at the Salé criminal court, which specializes in terrorism cases, had requested that the defendant, Abdelilah Ahriz, be given a life sentence. They said that witness testimony and DNA sampling proved Mr. Ahriz’s involvement in preparing the simultaneous train bombings that killed 191 people. [*****]

The court said it had found Mr. Ahriz guilty of several terrorism-related charges, including “belonging to a criminal group that aimed to commit acts of terrorism” and collecting funds for terrorist groups.

Mr. Ahriz, who is Moroccan, settled in Spain in 1999 but left the country shortly after the bombings.

He was tried in Salé under a 1997 agreement between Spain and Morocco that permits the prosecution of a suspect in his native country for crimes committed abroad.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

December 14, 2008

Stimulus Package To First Pay for Routine Repairs

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121301819.html
Stimulus Package To First Pay for Routine Repairs
By Alec MacGillis and Michael D. Shear
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, December 14, 2008; A01
President-elect Barack Obama calls it "the largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s." New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg compares it to the New Deal -- when workers built hundreds of bridges, dams and parkways -- while saying it could help close the gap with China, where he recently traveled on a Shanghai train at 267 mph.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121301819.html
Stimulus Package To First Pay for Routine Repairs
By Alec MacGillis and Michael D. Shear
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, December 14, 2008; A01
President-elect Barack Obama calls it "the largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s." New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg compares it to the New Deal -- when workers built hundreds of bridges, dams and parkways -- while saying it could help close the gap with China, where he recently traveled on a Shanghai train at 267 mph.

Most of the infrastructure spending being proposed for the massive stimulus package that Obama and congressional Democrats are readying, however, is not exactly the stuff of history, but destined for routine projects that have been on the to-do lists of state highway departments for years. Oklahoma wants to repave stretches of Interstates 35 and 40 and build "cable barriers" to keep wayward cars from crossing medians. New Jersey wants to repaint 88 bridges and restore Route 35 from Toms River to Mantoloking. Scottsdale, Ariz., wants to widen 1.5 miles of Scottsdale Road.

On the campaign trail, Obama said he would "rebuild America" with an "infrastructure bank" run by a new board that would award $60 billion over a decade to projects such as high-speed rail to take the country in a more energy-efficient direction. But the crumbling economy, while giving impetus to big spending plans, has also put a new emphasis on projects that can be started immediately -- "use it or lose it," Obama said last week -- and created a clear tension between the need to create jobs fast and the desire for a lasting legacy.

"It doesn't have the power to stir men's souls," said David Goldberg of Smart Growth America. "Repair and maintenance are good. We need to make sure we're building bridges that stand, not bridges to nowhere. But to gild the lily . . . where we're resurfacing pieces of road that aren't that critical, just to be able to say we spent the money, is not what we're after."

Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak is proud that his city was able to quickly rebuild the Interstate 35 bridge that collapsed into the Mississippi River in 2007 while making sure to include capacity for a future transit line on it. But he worries that many of the road and bridge upgrades around the country will not be done in a similarly farsighted way, given the time pressures.

"The quickest things we can do may not be the ones that have the most significant long-term impact on the green economy," he said. "Unless we push a transit investment, this will end up being a stimulus package that rebalances our transportation strategy toward roads and away from [what] we need to get off our addiction to oil."

Mayors say there would be a better chance for a long-term impact if the money were focused on metropolitan areas where investments could make the most difference in reducing congestion and lessening dependence on cars. They doubt that will happen if infrastructure funding goes directly to state capitals.

In Seattle, Mayor Greg Nickels said that the list of projects submitted by Washington state included only one in Seattle, for a ferry dock, while the city has ambitious hopes for removing a hulking highway ramp in a revitalized neighborhood and accelerating a light-rail expansion.

"Metro areas really are the engines of the economy, and to the extent that this can go directly to the metro areas rather than a cumbersome state process, it will have more effect," Nickels said. "States can do a nice job in rural counties, but in metro areas it's not always a good relationship or very nimble."

As it stands, Congress, wanting to keep things simple, plans to disburse the money under existing formulas -- funding for roads and bridges will go to state governments, while money for public transit will go to the local agencies that receive transit funding.

State officials are playing down concerns about their proposed projects' value. New Jersey Gov. Jon S. Corzine said repairing a swath of roads and bridges is ambitious in its own right. "We could spend money on further provision of rail to Port Elizabeth and Port Newark, but if the highways weren't paved, we actually wouldn't have the ability to have the trains get to the spot to take the goods to the local distribution outlet," he said. "Those deferred maintenance investments are fundamental to maintaining a capital infrastructure."

Oklahoma transportation director Gary Ridley justifies his state's wish list in similar terms. Its highway pavements "are probably 40 years old, and some of them have been replaced, but a lot of them haven't," he said. "It's not like we're grabbing these out of the air."

On the trail, Obama spoke often of the potential for high-speed rail linking the cities of the industrial Midwest. But the transit projects being proposed also tend to be on a smaller scale: extending bus rapid-transit lanes, buying new commuter rail cars, upgrading commuter rail lines.

"Everyone would like grand projects, but the fact of the matter is that we're really trying to put people to work," said William Millar, president of the American Public Transportation Association. "A large number of small projects spread across the country make more impact than a handful of big projects in a few places."

The business community approves of the project list, noting that study groups have pegged total infrastructure repair needs at $1.6 trillion. "It's not sexy, but it's jobs," said J.P. Fielder, a spokesman for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "It's not dams and giant beautiful works of art. It's these low-end roads connecting certain places."

The Obama transition team is aware of the tension created by its goal of immediate stimulus but contends it can be resolved. For one thing, one aide said, some of the most legacy-building aspects of the recovery plan will be in areas other than transportation infrastructure -- such as expanding the electric grid, retrofitting schools to make them energy efficient and modernizing medical record-keeping.

Defending the emerging list of projects, the aide, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said there simply is a vast need for repairs. But the aide said that the Obama team also has its eye out for longer-term projects to invest in, and that for all the emphasis on quick spending, the recovery plan is considered a two-year undertaking. What is still to be determined is how some of those more ambitious projects would be chosen and how that money would be apportioned.

Others in Washington and at the state level also hope for a consensus between the short and long term. Early in 2009, they say, states will be able to spend stimulus money mostly on badly needed maintenance, as well as new projects that are ready to begin. Considerations about the country's future transportation needs will come later, they say, in the debate surrounding the regular transportation budget, which will be up for its five-year reauthorization next fall.

"It's apples and oranges. It is stimulus and economic recovery versus a long-term strategic plan for the nation's infrastructure," said Tony Dorsey, a spokesman for the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. He noted that a few items on the states' wish lists are of a larger scale: California wants to rebuild the southern access to the Golden Gate Bridge, while New Jersey wants to accelerate the construction of a second rail tunnel under the Hudson River.

The construction industry also sees a two-step process. "Do the rinky-dink projects, the smaller projects," said Frank Rapoport, head of the global infrastructure practice at the McKenna, Long & Aldrich law firm. Then, later in 2009, he said, the government should use any leftover stimulus money to leverage private equity to tackle larger challenges, possibly via Obama's proposed infrastructure bank.

That approach sounds good to Judith Rodin, president of the Rockefeller Foundation, which funds some infrastructure projects. "This is a once-in-50-year opportunity," she said. "We ought to repair what needs to be fixed and take a chunk of the cash and do that, but while we're doing that, develop an overall blueprint for how the rest of the money should be spent."

But that plan assumes that there will be enough money, political will and public support left over after an initial burst of spending to fuel broader investments. It is unclear how much money will be devoted to infrastructure in the stimulus package, which could surpass $500 billion. But the highway officials association has identified more than 5,000 road and bridge projects costing $64 billion that are ready to go, and the transit officials' association has identified 736 projects costing $12.2 billion that could start within 90 days.

If the stimulus funds many of those projects in the short term, there could be less appetite for increasing Washington's long-term investment beyond the roughly $50 billion a year it spends annually now. And on Capitol Hill, members of both parties agree that the focus has to be on the short term.

"Filling the potholes or repaving a stretch of road may not be as visual as the Hoover Dam or the Golden Gate Bridge, but that paved road is going to make a lot of difference in people's lives," said Jim Berard, spokesman for the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. "Will there be political will and money" for later spending? "We don't know. We'll build that bridge when we come to it. Trying to do bigger-type infrastructure improvement at this point would be irresponsible. You'd be fiddling while Rome burst into flames."
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Iraqi Victims and Families Meet U.S. Prosecutors

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/middleeast/14iraq.html
December 14, 2008
Iraqi Victims and Families Meet U.S. Prosecutors
By KATHERINE ZOEPF and ANWAR J. ALI
BAGHDAD — American prosecutors met Saturday with victims’ families and survivors of the September 2007 shootings of Iraqi civilians by private security guards employed by Blackwater Worldwide.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/middleeast/14iraq.html
December 14, 2008
Iraqi Victims and Families Meet U.S. Prosecutors
By KATHERINE ZOEPF and ANWAR J. ALI
BAGHDAD — American prosecutors met Saturday with victims’ families and survivors of the September 2007 shootings of Iraqi civilians by private security guards employed by Blackwater Worldwide.

About 50 Iraqis gathered at National Police Headquarters, just a few hundred yards from where the shootings happened, to meet with Kenneth Kohl, a prosecutor in the criminal case against the Blackwater guards.

Though many victims have been interviewed by the F.B.I. as part of the investigation, the meeting was the first time they had been brought together so that prosecutors could inform them about the investigation and their rights under American law.

Last week, when five Blackwater guards were indicted in connection with the shootings and a sixth guard negotiated a plea deal, the United States Justice Department announced that it would be sending representatives to Baghdad. It did not fully explain the purpose of the visit, though the department said that witnesses would be brought from Iraq to testify at the trial.

“Our investigation does continue,” Mr. Kohl, an assistant United States attorney for the District of Columbia, said Saturday to the Iraqis, many of them clutching sheafs of hospital paperwork and X-rays documenting their or their relatives’ injuries.

He said that there would be a trial in the United States, and that if the defendants were convicted on all counts, they would face at least 30 years, and perhaps life, in prison. “But I do wish to emphasize that the sentence is a matter left to the judge,” he said.

Several Iraqi victims said they were startled to have been contacted by the Americans.

“It’s an old case, and I had lost hope,” said Jassem Mohammed Hashem, a 29-year-old former policeman who has been on disability since being shot in the head by a Blackwater guard while he stood at his post. “But now it seems the American administration will give us our rights.”

Mr. Hashem, who has a divot about half the size of an egg on the right side of his forehead, said that to save his life he had needed to undergo several operations. He still suffers from debilitating headaches, he said, as well as uncontrollable mood swings that have seriously affected his family relationships.

“I am so worried for my children,” Mr. Hashem said. “My daughter is 5 and my son is 2 months old. I’m always in a bad mood, and I get very aggressive sometimes. I was never like this before. I lost my health on that day. I lost my job. I’m only 29, but I’m on disability and will probably have to retire.”

A woman who identified herself as Umm Ghaith, whose husband, Hammoud Said Attah, a 32-year-old taxi driver, was killed in the shootings, said that until she received a call four days before informing her of the meeting, she had heard nothing about the investigation.

“Till now I don’t know what to expect, but I really wish justice will take place,” she said at the gathering, accompanied by her six young children and her sister-in-law, whose husband was also killed. “I think we will probably file a suit against Blackwater — it’s the right of my children.”

Reporters were asked to leave the room after Mr. Kohl’s opening remarks. But when Umm Ghaith was contacted by telephone later in the afternoon, she described the meeting, which lasted about five and a half hours, as confusing and disappointing.

“Every time we asked about something, they tried to avoid it,” she said, adding, “People started getting upset, and many victims and their relatives said that it was all useless and we came here for nothing.”

But an Iraqi official who was at the meeting, and who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity, said that many victims’ family members had been disappointed simply because they were unfamiliar with American legal procedures.

“It was a very good meeting,” the official said. “The prosecutors invited the victims’ relatives and those who were wounded to attend the trials in the United States. But the people did not get paid today, and that’s why they got upset.”

Reporting was contributed by Timothy Williams, Abeer Mohammed, Tareq Maher, Mudhafer al-Husaini and Suadad al-Salhy from Baghdad, and Ginger Thompson from Washington.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Official History Spotlights Iraq Rebuilding Blunders

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/middleeast/14reconstruct.html
December 14, 2008
Official History Spotlights Iraq Rebuilding Blunders
By JAMES GLANZ and T. CHRISTIAN MILLER [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [millitary history] [post mortems] [often well done but quickly shelved] [***]
BAGHDAD — An unpublished 513-page federal history of the American-led

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/middleeast/14reconstruct.html
December 14, 2008
Official History Spotlights Iraq Rebuilding Blunders
By JAMES GLANZ and T. CHRISTIAN MILLER [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [millitary history] [post mortems] [often well done but quickly shelved] [***]
BAGHDAD — An unpublished 513-page federal history of the American-led reconstruction of Iraq depicts an effort crippled before the invasion by Pentagon planners who were hostile to the idea of rebuilding a foreign country, and then molded into a $100 billion failure by bureaucratic turf wars, spiraling violence and ignorance of the basic elements of Iraqi society and infrastructure.

The history, the first official account of its kind, is circulating in draft form here and in Washington among a tight circle of technical reviewers, policy experts and senior officials. It also concludes that when the reconstruction began to lag — particularly in the critical area of rebuilding the Iraqi police and army — the Pentagon simply put out inflated measures of progress to cover up the failures.

In one passage, for example, former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell is quoted as saying that in the months after the 2003 invasion, the Defense Department “kept inventing numbers of Iraqi security forces — the number would jump 20,000 a week! ‘We now have 80,000, we now have 100,000, we now have 120,000.’ ”

Mr. Powell’s assertion that the Pentagon inflated the number of competent Iraqi security forces is backed up by Lt. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez, the former commander of ground troops in Iraq, and L. Paul Bremer III, the top civilian administrator until an Iraqi government took over in June 2004. [***]

Among the overarching conclusions of the history is that five years after embarking on its largest foreign reconstruction project since the Marshall Plan in Europe after World War II, the United States government has in place neither the policies and technical capacity nor the organizational structure that would be needed to undertake such a program on anything approaching this scale. [***]

The bitterest message of all for the reconstruction program may be the way the history ends. The hard figures on basic services and industrial production compiled for the report reveal that for all the money spent and promises made, the rebuilding effort never did much more than restore what was destroyed during the invasion and the convulsive looting that followed.

By mid-2008, the history says, $117 billion had been spent on the reconstruction of Iraq, including some $50 billion in United States taxpayer money.

The history contains a catalog of revelations that show the chaotic and often poisonous atmosphere prevailing in the reconstruction effort.

¶When the Office of Management and Budget balked at the American occupation authority’s abrupt request for about $20 billion in new reconstruction money in August 2003, a veteran Republican lobbyist working for the authority made a bluntly partisan appeal to Joshua B. Bolten, then the O.M.B. director and now the White House chief of staff. “To delay getting our funds would be a political disaster for the President,” wrote the lobbyist, Tom C. Korologos. “His election will hang for a large part on show of progress in Iraq and without the funding this year, progress will grind to a halt.” With administration backing, Congress allocated the money later that year.

¶In an illustration of the hasty and haphazard planning, a civilian official at the United States Agency for International Development was at one point given four hours to determine how many miles of Iraqi roads would need to be reopened and repaired. The official searched through the agency’s reference library, and his estimate went directly into a master plan. Whatever the quality of the agency’s plan, it eventually began running what amounted to a parallel reconstruction effort in the provinces that had little relation with the rest of the American effort.

¶Money for many of the local construction projects still under way is divided up by a spoils system controlled by neighborhood politicians and tribal chiefs. “Our district council chairman has become the Tony Soprano of Rasheed, in terms of controlling resources,” said an American Embassy official working in a dangerous Baghdad neighborhood. “ ‘You will use my contractor or the work will not get done.’ ”
A Cautionary Tale
The United States could soon have reason to consult this cautionary tale of deception, waste and poor planning, as troop levels and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan are likely to be stepped up under the new administration.

The incoming Obama administration’s rebuilding experts are expected to focus on smaller-scale projects and emphasize political and economic reform. Still, such programs do not address one of the history’s main contentions: that the reconstruction effort has failed because no single agency in the United States government has responsibility for the job.

Five years after the invasion of Iraq, the history concludes, “the government as a whole has never developed a legislatively sanctioned doctrine or framework for planning, preparing and executing contingency operations in which diplomacy, development and military action all figure.”

Titled “Hard Lessons: The Iraq Reconstruction Experience,” the new history was compiled by the Office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, led by Stuart W. Bowen Jr., a Republican lawyer who regularly travels to Iraq and has a staff of engineers and auditors based here. Copies of several drafts of the history were provided to reporters at The New York Times and ProPublica by two people outside the inspector general’s office who have read the draft, but are not authorized to comment publicly.

Mr. Bowen’s deputy, Ginger Cruz, declined to comment for publication on the substance of the history. But she said it would be presented on Feb. 2 at the first hearing of the Commission on Wartime Contracting, which was created this year as a result of legislation sponsored by Senators Jim Webb of Virginia and Claire McCaskill of Missouri, both Democrats.

The manuscript is based on approximately 500 new interviews, as well as more than 600 audits, inspections and investigations on which Mr. Bowen’s office has reported over the years. Laid out for the first time in a connected history, the material forms the basis for broad judgments on the rebuilding program.

In the preface, Mr. Bowen gives a searing critique of what he calls the “blinkered and disjointed prewar planning for Iraq’s reconstruction” and the botched expansion of the program from a modest initiative to improve Iraqi services to a multibillion-dollar enterprise.

Mr. Bowen also swipes at the endless revisions and reversals of the program, which at various times gyrated from a focus on giant construction projects led by large Western contractors to modest community-based initiatives carried out by local Iraqis. While Mr. Bowen concedes that deteriorating security had a hand in spoiling the program’s hopes, he suggests, as he has in the past, that the program did not need much outside help to do itself in.

Despite years of studying the program, Mr. Bowen writes that he still has not found a good answer to the question of why the program was even pursued as soaring violence made it untenable. “Others will have to provide that answer,” Mr. Bowen writes.

“But beyond the security issue stands another compelling and unavoidable answer: the U.S. government was not adequately prepared to carry out the reconstruction mission it took on in mid-2003,” he concludes.

The history cites some projects as successes. The review praises community outreach efforts by the Agency for International Development, the Treasury Department’s plan to stabilize the Iraqi dinar after the invasion and a joint effort by the Departments of State and Defense to create local rebuilding teams.

But the portrait that emerges over all is one of a program’s officials operating by the seat of their pants in the middle of a critical enterprise abroad, where the reconstruction was supposed to convince the Iraqi citizenry of American good will and support the new democracy with lights that turned on and taps that flowed with clean water. Mostly, it is a portrait of a program that seemed to grow exponentially as even those involved from the inception of the effort watched in surprise.
Early Miscalculations
On the eve of the invasion, as it began to dawn on a few officials that the price for rebuilding Iraq would be vastly greater than they had been told, the degree of miscalculation was illustrated in an encounter between Donald H. Rumsfeld, then the defense secretary, and Jay Garner, a retired lieutenant general who had hastily been named the chief of what would be a short-lived civilian authority called the Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance. [****]

The history records how Mr. Garner presented Mr. Rumsfeld with several rebuilding plans, including one that would include projects across Iraq.

“What do you think that’ll cost?” Mr. Rumsfeld asked of the more expansive plan.

“I think it’s going to cost billions of dollars,” Mr. Garner said. [****]

“My friend,” Mr. Rumsfeld replied, “if you think we’re going to spend a billion dollars of our money over there, you are sadly mistaken.” [who’s sadly mistaken now] [the US in into it for about 700 billion] [4200 KIA] [****]

In a way he never anticipated, Mr. Rumsfeld turned out to be correct: before that year was out, the United States had appropriated more than $20 billion for the reconstruction, which would indeed involve projects across the entire country.

Mr. Rumsfeld declined to comment on the history, but a spokesman, Keith Urbahn, said that quotes attributed to Mr. Rumsfeld in the document “appear to be accurate.” Mr. Powell also declined to comment.

The secondary effects of the invasion and its aftermath were among the most important factors that radically changed the outlook. Tables in the history show that measures of things like the national production of electricity and oil, public access to potable water, mobile and landline telephone service and the presence of Iraqi security forces all plummeted by at least 70 percent, and in some cases all the way to zero, in the weeks after the invasion.

Subsequent tables in the history give a fast-forward view of what happened as the avalanche of money tumbled into Iraq over the next five years.
Dashed Expectations
By the time a sovereign Iraqi government took over from the Americans in June 2004, none of those services — with a single exception, mobile phones — had returned to prewar levels.

And by the time of the security improvements in 2007 and 2008, electricity output had, at best, a precarious 10 percent lead on its levels under Saddam Hussein; oil production was still below prewar levels; and access to potable water had increased by about 30 percent, although with Iraq’s ruined piping system it was unclear how much reached people’s homes uncontaminated.

Whether the rebuilding effort could have succeeded in a less violent setting will never be known. In April 2004, thousands of the Iraqi security forces that had been oversold by the Pentagon were overrun, abruptly mutinied or simply abandoned their posts as the insurgency broke out, sending Iraq down a violent path from which it has never completely recovered.

At the end of his narrative, Mr. Bowen chooses a line from “Great Expectations” by Dickens as the epitaph of the American-led attempt to rebuild Iraq: “We spent as much money as we could, and got as little for it as people could make up their minds to give us.”
James Glanz reported from Baghdad, and T. Christian Miller, of the nonprofit investigative Web site ProPublica, reported from Washington.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

A War's Impossible Mission

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/12/AR2008121203291.html
A War's Impossible Mission
By P.J. Tobia
Sunday, December 14, 2008; B01
KHOST PROVINCE, Afghanistan Capt. Roger Hill stood behind a long wooden desk, reading from a piece of paper that trembled lightly in his hand. "Please know that seeing your brothers whittled down one by one by a cowardly and ghost-like enemy is difficult," he said, glancing up only briefly at the team of military prosecutors assembled around him.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/12/AR2008121203291.html
A War's Impossible Mission
By P.J. Tobia
Sunday, December 14, 2008; B01
KHOST PROVINCE, Afghanistan Capt. Roger Hill stood behind a long wooden desk, reading from a piece of paper that trembled lightly in his hand. "Please know that seeing your brothers whittled down one by one by a cowardly and ghost-like enemy is difficult," he said, glancing up only briefly at the team of military prosecutors assembled around him.

Hill is a U.S. Army officer in Afghanistan accused of detainee abuse, including a mock execution, war crimes, dereliction of duty and other serious charges stemming from an incident last August at a U.S. military base outside the capital city of Kabul. Members of his unit allegedly slapped Afghan detainees, and Hill himself is said to have fired his pistol into the ground near blindfolded Afghans to frighten them.

But after exploring the personalities and circumstances involved in this case, it's hard for me to condemn Hill or his first sergeant, Tommy Scott, who has been charged with assaulting the detainees. Stuck in the deadly middle ground between all-out war and nation- building, these men lashed out to protect themselves. To me, their story encapsulates the impossible role we've asked U.S. soldiers to play in the reconstruction of this devastated country. They are part warrior, part general contractor, yet they are surrounded on all sides by a populace that wants nothing more than to kill or be rid of them.

The soldiers who have served at Hill's side call him heroic. Others describe the career that the 30-year-old West Point graduate might have had if he and his men hadn't apparently crossed the line one day last summer. Instead, I watched Hill fight for that career -- and for his freedom -- earlier this month in a conference room at Forward Operating Base Salerno, a large U.S. military base near the Afghan town of Khost, about 17 miles from the Afghan-Pakistani border.

As Hill tried to defend his actions at a military hearing, his soft voice filled the small, bare room: "Know that sifting through the charred and crumbling remains of fellow service members in order to identify their bodies, or picking up the pieces of another after this ghost-like enemy has hacked off his arms and cut out his heart . . . only for you to later find out that his fingers are being distributed downtown amongst the locals, can somehow make a commander more protective. "

It was against this "ghost-like enemy" that Hill, Scott and the rest of their unit were fighting at Forward Operating Base Airborne in Wardak Province, west of Kabul, where Hill's company was the sole coalition force for miles around.

There are dozens of bases throughout the country like Airborne. They are full of soldiers who bear the dual and confounding burden of being both an army fighting the Taliban, with all the killing and dying that entails, and a corps of civil servants. They attend shuras (meetings with village leaders), construct roads and help train the Afghan police force. They are expected to work hand-in-glove with people who might have tea with them one moment and inform Taliban killers about U.S. troop movements the next. But talking with local leaders -- even leaders who might be playing both sides -- is the only way to begin progress toward building institutions in Afghanistan.

I traveled here to work as an embedded reporter with the soldiers of the 101st Airborne Division, based at Fort Campbell, Ky., about an hour from my home in Nashville. I'd planned on spending most of my time with the 101st as they engaged the Taliban on the Pakistan border.

But while waiting at FOB Salerno for a helicopter ride to a smaller base, I heard talk about Hill and the Article 32 inquiry he was about to face -- the military justice version of a grand jury hearing. I learned that Hill and Scott could face life in prison if the matter proceeded to a court martial. Another half-dozen members of Hill's company will soon have Article 32 hearings of their own. One soldier is already being held in a military jail in Kuwait for his role in the incident.

I decided to stay.

Hill's path to the hearing room in Khost began, according to witness testimony, when he received reliable intelligence late last August that Taliban agents were working on his unit's base, which is manned by no more than 200 coalition soldiers. One of these reported interlopers, a man identified only as "Noori," was Hill's personal interpreter. Two more purported Taliban informants were running the base's small, locally owned coffee shop. The intelligence said that all three, as well as some others, were relaying information about U.S. troop movements and artillery positions to Taliban agents in Wardak, an area the size of Connecticut where Hill's small company faced off against a large number of hostile locals.

The intelligence report detailing how these Afghan men were working with the Taliban is classified "top secret." But an Army spokesman who has seen it said that the evidence against them was incontrovertible. "There was a legitimate report saying that [Hill's translator] was a bad guy and was sharing information with the Taliban," said Marine Capt. Scott Miller, media liaison for the hearing. "He was providing information to recognized bad people."

Upon receiving the intelligence report, Hill's men immediately put the accused Afghans in plastic flex-cuffs and took them to the base's coffee shop. The total number of detainees is disputed; some witnesses testified that there were as many as 25, while most others put the number closer to 12 or 13.

In a statement through his lawyer, Neal Puckett, Hill said that on a number of occasions, the intelligence that the alleged informants provided to the Taliban could have had deadly consequences for his men. In one case, he said, he confirmed that information had been leaked to enemy forces, warning them of a major U.S. operation against them hours before the mission was due to begin. Hill added that several improvised explosive devices had been planted on the planned route, although they were neutralized without injury to his soldiers. "It is without a doubt that the detainees we took, all twelve of them, were involved in providing early warning to the enemy that injured and or killed thirty of my men during our six months in Wardak," Hill said in the statement.

U.S. forces detain Afghans for any number of reasons. But according to International Security and Assistance Force rules, by which all U.S. forces in Afghanistan must abide, these detentions can last no longer than 96 hours. The detainees must then be either released, handed over to Afghan security forces or formally arrested and placed in the custody of the unit's commanding battalion. Once in battalion custody, detainees may can be questioned by trained military or intelligence interrogators.

Requests to send detainees to battalion are a routine matter. Over the past year, Hill's company made at least 10 such requests, although none were approved, according to 1st Lt. Larry Kay, Hill's executive officer. Kay, who is also facing charges related to the incident, added that other U.S. companies' detainees are routinely accepted by battalion and blames the repeated denials on friction between Hill and his battalion command.

As the 96-hour window began to close last August, Kay made frantic calls to battalion headquarters, trying to secure the arrest of the detainees his men were holding. The detainees "knew who everyone [on FOB Airborne] was," Kay said. "They knew where everyone slept, they knew where our artillery was placed, which then became the target of rocket attacks. . . . I didn't want to let these guys go." Kay said that his calls went unheeded.

Battalion commander Lt. Col. Tony DeMartino declined to discuss the specifics of the incident. He did say that generally, "We like to see the Afghans do the formal detainee process so that [the detainees] are in the Afghan chain of command."

Worried about the safety of their men, Hill and Scott resorted to drastic measures. Though it is unclear exactly who initially planned to detain the Afghans, Hill acknowledges that the ultimate responsibility is his. "I did wrongfully discharge my weapon and I did fail to maintain control of the situation," he said in his statement at the hearing.

According to testimony from a number of witnesses, it was Scott, the first sergeant, who began interrogating the bound detainees. He straddled their chests one at a time as they lay on the ground, pinning their shoulders with his knees and slapping their faces while shouting questions.

"My whole twenty-plus-year career in the military has been about taking care of soldiers," Scott said after the hearing concluded. "I couldn't let these men go just so that they could come back and kill some of my boys. It made no sense."

At some point during the interrogation, a few of the detainees were blindfolded and taken to an area just outside the coffee shop. Then, according to many who testified at the hearing, Hill removed his 9mm pistol from a leather shoulder-holster and fired at least once into the ground, about 20 yards from the nearest detainee. Inside the coffee shop, after the shot rang out, Scott asked the other detainees, "Do you want to die like your friend?"

Through his attorney, Scott denied that he had said any such thing.

Witnesses testified that the detainees were eventually released into the custody of Afghan intelligence officials. DeMartino, the battalion commander, said that when Afghans are detained by coalition forces, they are generally kept in the custody of NATO forces or released. "Sometimes," he said, "we'll just release them, and we'll ask [the Afghan police or intelligence agency] to give them a ride home."

Before this group was handed over, a U.S. Army physician's assistant examined the men. At the hearing, I heard him say that they were unharmed and in fine physical condition. Other testimony indicated that these alleged Taliban operatives are now walking free in Wardak -- with full knowledge of the inner workings of FOB Airborne.

I was present for every unclassified minute of the Article 32 hearing. Prior to the incident last August, Hill was known as a promising young officer who had received a Bronze Star for valor and three Army commendation medals. He led his men through a bloody spring and summer of ambushes and IEDs. His company -- D Company of the 1st Battalion, 506th Infantry Regiment -- numbered only about 100 men and suffered more than 30 casualties and at least two deaths. But their morale was high. "These guys wouldn't want to be anywhere else," Scott said of his men.

Scott also has an impressive résumé. Career military, he won a Bronze Star of his own for a combat jump into Panama in 1988 and fought for 15 hours straight during the 1991 Gulf War.

Watching the prosecution destroy the reputations of Scott and Hill was heartbreaking, tragic -- and deeply conflicting. As an American who fiercely believes in the rule of law and due process, I understand that the actions of D Company are inexcusable. A mock execution, under almost any circumstance, is antithetical to the ideals and standards our nation aspires to.

And perhaps Hill's superiors had good reason not to take these particular men into custody. Maybe they were on the radar of U.S. intelligence and taking them out of circulation might have meant losing valuable information.

But the soldiers of D Company felt that they were out of options.

I fear that this kind of story will repeat itself in other parts of Afghanistan again and again, if only because U.S. forces know that their enemy's mission is clearer than their own.

"They're Taliban," one soldier said in response to a prosecutor's question at the hearing. That soldier is facing charges of repeatedly hitting a detainee who bit him as he tried to put a gag into the man's mouth. "If it was us, they'd cut our heads off, videotape it and put it on al-Jazeera for our families to see."

pjtobia@gmail.com
P.J. Tobia is a staff writer and investigative reporter for Nashville Scene.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Climate Change Lessons

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121301727.html
Climate Change Lessons
It's not easy going green.
Sunday, December 14, 2008; B06 [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [making the transitions to an AfPak strategy during a transition of epic nature] [concomitantly, global economic meltdow, along with climate catastrophe] [here the latter is the agenda] [******]
PRESIDENT-ELECT Barack Obama is committed to ending the United States' inaction

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121301727.html
Climate Change Lessons
It's not easy going green.
Sunday, December 14, 2008; B06 [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [making the transitions to an AfPak strategy during a transition of epic nature] [concomitantly, global economic meltdow, along with climate catastrophe] [here the latter is the agenda] [******]
PRESIDENT-ELECT Barack Obama is committed to ending the United States' inaction on global warming. He wants to reduce emissions through a cap-and-trade system. But a report from the Government Accountability Office on problems with Europe's system and the inability of climate talks in Poland last week to settle on a specific number for the "long-term global goal for emissions reductions" shows how difficult the task will be.

Mr. Obama wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. He would accomplish this by auctioning all of the emission allowances that would be available through a cap-and-trade system that would put an annual declining cap on the number of pollution permits. The European Union created its own cap-and-trade system in response to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. But European experience shows that this complicated regime is no guarantee of success. The GAO report confirms that the European Union erred in its calculation of emissions and then compounded the error by giving away all of the pollution permits. The results were higher energy prices for customers and windfall profits for utilities.

The United States didn't sign Kyoto and has been roundly -- and rightly -- criticized for resisting efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions and thwarting attempts to establish a long-term goal with specific targets. The Europeans have been the chief critics, but they've had a hard time living up to their self-righteous railings against the United States. They haven't been terribly successful at meeting their own targets. At meetings in Brussels last week, a move to auction all emissions permits starting in 2013 was resisted by Poland and other Eastern European countries worried about the impact on their industries. So a two-tiered system was created. For Eastern European utilities, there would be an auction of 30 percent of emissions allowances in 2013, going to 100 percent by 2020. The rest of the E.U. power companies would have to buy all of their pollution permits in 2013. Meanwhile, the just-concluded U.N. gathering in Poznan, Poland, failed to quantify the goal that would be the foundation for Kyoto II, which is slated to be signed next December.

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lessen dependence on fossil fuels, there must be a price on carbon. A cap-and-trade system is the easiest way to integrate into an international regime, but its pitfalls are legion. A gas tax would be simpler and less subject to bureaucratic manipulation and undermining by lobbying interests. It would be the easiest way to change behavior, meet emissions targets and spark the innovation that will produce the next generation of energy production that will save the planet. We hope that Mr. Obama will give this approach serious consideration as he takes up the mantle of leadership on global warming that President Bush shunned.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Climate Change Lessons

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121301727.html
Climate Change Lessons
It's not easy going green.
Sunday, December 14, 2008; B06 [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [making the transitions to an AfPak strategy during a transition of epic nature] [concomitantly, global economic meltdow, along with climate catastrophe] [here the latter is the agenda] [******]
PRESIDENT-ELECT Barack Obama is committed to ending the United States' inaction

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121301727.html
Climate Change Lessons
It's not easy going green.
Sunday, December 14, 2008; B06 [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [making the transitions to an AfPak strategy during a transition of epic nature] [concomitantly, global economic meltdow, along with climate catastrophe] [here the latter is the agenda] [******]
PRESIDENT-ELECT Barack Obama is committed to ending the United States' inaction on global warming. He wants to reduce emissions through a cap-and-trade system. But a report from the Government Accountability Office on problems with Europe's system and the inability of climate talks in Poland last week to settle on a specific number for the "long-term global goal for emissions reductions" shows how difficult the task will be.

Mr. Obama wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. He would accomplish this by auctioning all of the emission allowances that would be available through a cap-and-trade system that would put an annual declining cap on the number of pollution permits. The European Union created its own cap-and-trade system in response to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. But European experience shows that this complicated regime is no guarantee of success. The GAO report confirms that the European Union erred in its calculation of emissions and then compounded the error by giving away all of the pollution permits. The results were higher energy prices for customers and windfall profits for utilities.

The United States didn't sign Kyoto and has been roundly -- and rightly -- criticized for resisting efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions and thwarting attempts to establish a long-term goal with specific targets. The Europeans have been the chief critics, but they've had a hard time living up to their self-righteous railings against the United States. They haven't been terribly successful at meeting their own targets. At meetings in Brussels last week, a move to auction all emissions permits starting in 2013 was resisted by Poland and other Eastern European countries worried about the impact on their industries. So a two-tiered system was created. For Eastern European utilities, there would be an auction of 30 percent of emissions allowances in 2013, going to 100 percent by 2020. The rest of the E.U. power companies would have to buy all of their pollution permits in 2013. Meanwhile, the just-concluded U.N. gathering in Poznan, Poland, failed to quantify the goal that would be the foundation for Kyoto II, which is slated to be signed next December.

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lessen dependence on fossil fuels, there must be a price on carbon. A cap-and-trade system is the easiest way to integrate into an international regime, but its pitfalls are legion. A gas tax would be simpler and less subject to bureaucratic manipulation and undermining by lobbying interests. It would be the easiest way to change behavior, meet emissions targets and spark the innovation that will produce the next generation of energy production that will save the planet. We hope that Mr. Obama will give this approach serious consideration as he takes up the mantle of leadership on global warming that President Bush shunned.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Policy of Abuse

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121301725.html
Policy of Abuse
A Senate committee shows how Bush administration decisions led to the mistreatment of prisoners.
Sunday, December 14, 2008; B06 [Bush white house] [congress] [110th congress, 2nd session] [its final spree before the 111trh congress and president 44] [Senate Armed Service Committee] [iools like it actually finally asked a couple of tough questions] [followoup] [******]
"THE ABUSE of detainees at Abu Ghraib in late 2003 was not simply the result of a few soldiers acting on their own." [***]Some 4 1/2 years after its first hearing to

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121301725.html
Policy of Abuse
A Senate committee shows how Bush administration decisions led to the mistreatment of prisoners.
Sunday, December 14, 2008; B06 [Bush white house] [congress] [110th congress, 2nd session] [its final spree before the 111trh congress and president 44] [Senate Armed Service Committee] [iools like it actually finally asked a couple of tough questions] [followoup] [******]
"THE ABUSE of detainees at Abu Ghraib in late 2003 was not simply the result of a few soldiers acting on their own." [***]Some 4 1/2 years after its first hearing to investigate allegations that U.S. personnel grossly abused detainees in Iraq, the Senate Armed Services committee at last has agreed on a conclusion that was obvious to many from almost the beginning of the scandal: that the sickening photographs of naked, hooded prisoners being threatened by dogs and forced into humiliating poses were the direct result of policies adopted by then-Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and other senior Bush administration officials. The detailed report on detainee abuses unanimously approved by the committee and released last week doesn't break much new ground factually. But as a bipartisan finding after more than 18 months of deliberations, it delivers what ought to be a crushing blow to the continuing attempts of the Bush administration to deny, whitewash or obfuscate the truth behind the scandal. [****]

Mr. Rumsfeld and U.S. generals in Iraq told the Armed Services Committee at that first hearing in May 2004 that the abusive Abu Ghraib techniques were invented by rogue enlisted soldiers skylarking on the night shift. [***]Even as the evidence against that version mounted, Mr. Rumsfeld stuck to his story while doing his best to shift responsibility to others; the Pentagon brass clumsily tried to pin blame on a female reserve brigadier general who had nothing to do with the interrogation of prisoners.

The Senate report meticulously details the real story. In the summer of 2002, Mr. Rumsfeld's chief counsel, William J. Haynes II, sought guidance from a Pentagon agency that specializes in teaching U.S. special forces how to resist harsh interrogation techniques and torture of the kind employed by foreign dictatorships. A number of the techniques, like sleep deprivation, enforced standing, nudity and intimidation with dogs, were then adopted by the Pentagon for use at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, with the explicit approval of Mr. Rumsfeld. [***]The legality of the techniques was approved by Bush appointees at the Justice Department; Mr. Haynes dismissed the arguments of senior military lawyers who said they were illegal.

Within days of Mr. Rumsfeld's approval of these methods, the Senate report says, military intelligence officers in Afghanistan had been briefed on them, and the command headquarters had issued a memo adopting many of them. Those same techniques were then adopted in Iraq, first for special missions units and then for all U.S. forces. Though Mr. Rumsfeld rescinded some of the techniques in 2003 and U.S. commanders in Iraq also backtracked on their initial approval of them, the original harsh methods continued to be used by U.S. forces -- including the soldiers at Abu Ghraib. [toothpaste too far out of tube] [***]

Armed Services Chairman Carl M. Levin (D-Mich.) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) have vowed for years to establish full accountability for the abuses of detainees by the military, and the new report goes a long way toward accomplishing that aim. But the full story of the Bush administration's violations of international norms in arresting and detaining foreigners has yet to be told: There has been no account, for example, of the CIA's secret prisons and the torture of al-Qaeda leaders held in them. That's why the next Congress and the Obama administration should agree to establish a full-fledged investigative commission, like the one that studied the events of Sept. 11, 2001, to give a comprehensive accounting of the abuses against foreign detainees and how they came about. Only when this terrible story is told, fully and repeatedly, can Americans come to terms with it -- and ensure that it does not happen again.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Out of Sight

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14gerecht.html
December 14, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor | Transitions
Out of Sight
By REUEL MARC GERECHT [oped] [special series on the imminent transition (39 days?)] [what we call the interregnum in the US] [See Bobbitt, Bergen, Gerecht, et al.] [****]
Prague
FEW post-9/11 issues have produced more anxiety and revulsion than the Central Intelligence Agency’s use of “aggressive interrogation” and the extrajudicial rendition of terrorist suspects to countries that practice torture. [***]President-elect Barack Obama has promised to ban waterboarding and other pain-inflicting soliciting techniques, as well as rendition. He has also promised to close the Guantánamo Bay prison.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14gerecht.html
December 14, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor | Transitions
Out of Sight
By REUEL MARC GERECHT [oped] [special series on the imminent transition (39 days?)] [what we call the interregnum in the US] [See Bobbitt, Bergen, Gerecht, et al.] [****]
Prague
FEW post-9/11 issues have produced more anxiety and revulsion than the Central Intelligence Agency’s use of “aggressive interrogation” and the extrajudicial rendition of terrorist suspects to countries that practice torture. [***]President-elect Barack Obama has promised to ban waterboarding and other pain-inflicting soliciting techniques, as well as rendition. He has also promised to close the Guantánamo Bay prison.

More broadly, liberal Democrats in Congress intend to deploy a more moral counterterrorism, where the ends — stopping the slaughter of civilians by Islamic holy warriors — no longer justifies reprehensible means. Winning the hearts and minds of foreigners by remaining true to our nobler virtues is now seen as the way to defeat our enemies while preserving our essential goodness.

Sounds uplifting. Don’t bet on it happening. [***]

Mr. Obama will soon face the same awful choices that confronted George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, and he could well be forced to accept a central feature of their anti-terrorist methods: extraordinary rendition. [****]If the choice is between non-deniable aggressive questioning conducted by Americans and deniable torturous interrogations by foreigners acting on behalf of the United States, it is almost certain that as president Mr. Obama will choose the latter.

Of course, he and his senior officials seem to believe now that they don’t have to make this choice. For them there is a better way to combat terrorism, by using physically non-coercive questioning of suspects and civilian courts or military courts-martial to try and punish jihadists.

But this third way, which is essentially where America was before the Clinton administration embraced rendition, is plausible only if Mr. Obama is lucky. He might be. If there is no “ticking time bomb” situation — say, where waterboarding a future Khalid Shaikh Mohammed (the 9/11 mastermind) could save thousands of civilians — then there is neither need for the C.I.A.’s exceptional methods, nor the harsh services of Jordan’s General Intelligence Department. [*****]

And there are signs that Mr. Obama won’t have to confront such a situation. Through American and allied efforts, Al Qaeda has sustained enormous damage since 9/11. Osama bin Laden’s decisive battle in Iraq, where Al Qaeda intended to re-energize its holy war against the Americans among the Arabs, has turned into a military and moral disaster. Arab Muslim fundamentalists have finally started the great debate as to whether it is, in fact, unacceptable to kill believers and nonbelievers in jihad. [***]

And the internal-security services of our allies in Europe are, on the whole, vastly better today than they were in 2001. Thanks to intrusive surveillance methods (many of which are outlawed in the United States), they are much more efficient in pre-empting the plots of holy warriors traversing their borders. [****]

However, troubles in Pakistan may well reverse Mr. Obama’s luck. He has said he intends to be hawkish about fighting Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Central Asia. So, let us suppose that he increases the number of Special Forces raids into Pakistan, and those soldiers capture members of Al Qaeda and their computers, and learn that the group has advanced plans for striking American and European targets, [****]but we don’t know specifically where or when.

What would Mr. Obama do? After all, if we’d gotten our hands on a senior member of Al Qaeda before 9/11, and knew that an attack likely to kill thousands of Americans was imminent, wouldn’t waterboarding, or taking advantage of the skills of our Jordanian friends, have been the sensible, moral thing to do with a holy warrior who didn’t fear death but might have feared pain?

Mr. Obama will probably not have the option of ordering the C.I.A. to aggressively interrogate another member of Al Qaeda — not after running a campaign that highlighted the moral failings of President Bush. To get the C.I.A. back in the interrogation business would probably require a liberal Democratic Congress to pass laws guaranteeing case officers’ immunity from criminal and civil prosecution. This seems unlikely — unless, of course, the United States is again devastated by a terrorist strike. [****]

And because of Mr. Obama’s plan to close Guantánamo, the Justice Department is already going to have to figure out how to move, try, punish and release its detainees. Thus the last thing in the world the Obama administration will want is to bring in more “enemy combatants” from the Central Asian battlefield.

Which brings us back to rendition, which, properly understood, is what Americans do when they realize that active counterterrorism against jihadists prepared to use mass-casualty weapons is an ethical, juridical and operational tar pit. It isn’t an ideal solution — American intelligence officers have no control of the questioning, and Washington can become beholden to foreign security services — but it’s a satisfactory compromise. Just ask Samuel R. Berger, the national-security adviser for President Bill Clinton, who no doubt worked through all the pitfalls when he first approved extrajudicial rendition.

In addition, the C.I.A. is able to guard the secrecy of foreign-liaison operations more effectively, especially from Congressional prying, than it can its own activities. It has also certainly paid close attention to how the press tracked some of its clandestine international flights carrying terrorism suspects after 9/11, and will in the future undoubtedly make it much harder to sleuth out who is going where.

A dense bipartisan moral fog surrounds rendition. Former senior Clinton officials can still deny that they sent anyone away in order that he be tortured. Few are as honest and frank as Walt Slocombe, a Clinton undersecretary of defense who once remarked that the difference between Democratic and Republican rendition was that Democrats “drilled air holes in the boxes.”

If Mr. Obama’s Democrats get blown back into the ugly world that we live in, and resume rendition (and, of course, fib about it), then President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, who have been vilified for besmirching America’s honor, may at least take some consolation in knowing that hypocrisy is always the homage vice pays to virtue.
Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Central Intelligence Agency officer, is a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Safe at Home

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14bergen.html
December 14, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor | Transitions
Safe at Home
By PETER BERGEN
Washington [oped] [special series on the imminent transition (39 days?)] [what we call the interregnum in the US] [See Bobbitt, Bergen, Gerecht, et al.] [****]
A FEW days before the presidential election, the director of national intelligence, Mike McConnell, told a group of intelligence officials that the new administration could well be tested by a terrorist attack on the homeland in its first year in office. “The World Trade Center was attacked in the first year of President Clinton, and the

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14bergen.html
December 14, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor | Transitions
Safe at Home
By PETER BERGEN
Washington [oped] [special series on the imminent transition (39 days?)] [what we call the interregnum in the US] [See Bobbitt, Bergen, Gerecht, et al.] [****]
A FEW days before the presidential election, the director of national intelligence, Mike McConnell, told a group of intelligence officials that the new administration could well be tested by a terrorist attack on the homeland in its first year in office. “The World Trade Center was attacked in the first year of President Clinton, and the second attack was in the first year of President Bush,” [***]he said.

President-elect Barack Obama made a similar observation when he told “60 Minutes” that it was important to get a national security team in place “because transition periods are potentially times of vulnerability to a terrorist attack.” During the campaign, Joe Biden warned that “it will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. [****]”

Should we be worried? In fact, the probability of a Qaeda attack on the United States is vanishingly small, for the same reasons that for the past seven years the terrorist group has not been able to carry out one. [****]

President Bush and his supporters have often ascribed the absence of a Qaeda attack on the United States to the Iraq war, which supposedly acted as “flypaper” for jihadist terrorists, so instead of fighting them in Boston, America has fought them in Baghdad. Other commentators have said that Al Qaeda is simply biding its time to equal or top 9/11.

The real reasons are more prosaic. First, the American Muslim community has rejected the Qaeda ideological virus. American Muslims have instead overwhelmingly signed up for the American Dream, [***]enjoying higher incomes and educational levels than the average.

Second, though it is hard to prove negatives, there appear to be no Qaeda sleeper cells in the United States. If they do exist, they are so asleep they are comatose. True, in 2003, the F.B.I. arrested Iyman Faris, an Ohio trucker who met with Qaeda leaders in Pakistan after 9/11 and then had a plot to demolish the Brooklyn Bridge with a pair of blowtorches, a deed akin to trying to blow up the Statue of Liberty with a firecracker. [***]But he is an exceptional case. Two years after his arrest, a leaked F.B.I. report concluded, “To date, we have not identified any true ‘sleeper’ agents in the U.S.”

Third, when jihadist terrorists have attacked the United States, they have arrived from outside the country, something that is much harder to do now. [***]The 19 hijackers of 9/11 all came from elsewhere. Ramzi Yousef, the mastermind of the 1993 Trade Center bombing, flew to New York from Pakistan. Today’s no-fly list and other protective measures make entering the country much more difficult.

Fourth, the Bush administration has made Americans safer with measures like the establishment of the National Counterterrorism Center, where officials from different branches of government share information and act on terrorist threats. [***]As a result of such measures, scores of terrorism cases have been aggressively investigated in the United States. But despite the billions of dollars invested in all these efforts and the thousands of men and women who get up every day to hunt for terrorists, the resulting cases have almost never involved concrete terrorist plots or acts. [***]

Of the so-called terrorism cases since 9/11, many have revolved around charges of “material support” for a terrorist group, a vague concept that can encompass almost any dealings with organizations that have at one point engaged in terrorism. And in the cases where a terrorist plot has been alleged, the plans have been more aspirational than realistic.

If Al Qaeda can’t get people into the country, doesn’t have sleeper cells here and is unable to garner support from the American Muslim community, then how does it pull off an attack in the United States? While a small-bore attack may be organized by a Qaeda wannabe at some point, a catastrophic mass-casualty assault anything along the lines of 9/11 is no longer plausible. [I hope you’re right but I fear they got at leas another f**k-you Bush and possibly a Welcome-to-the-Presidency message for Obama] [my hunch is one or both is close to ready] [where it will be successful remains to be seen] [****]

This is not to say Al Qaeda is no longer a threat to our interests. It has of course regenerated itself on Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan since 9/11, and as the 2005 attacks on the London subways and the foiled 2006 plot to bring down airliners leaving Heathrow Airport showed, it remains a grave danger to Britain. [***]

In addition, Al Qaeda’s inability to attack the American homeland for the foreseeable future does not then mean that it can’t kill large numbers of American living overseas. If the 2006 “planes plot” had succeeded, British prosecutors say, as many as 1,500 passengers would have died, many of them Americans.

The incoming Obama administration has much to deal with, between managing two wars and the implosion of the financial system and car industry. But the likelihood of a terrorist attack on the United States in its early stages by Al Qaeda is close to zero. [Hope you’re right] [but my read is you’re wrong] [****]
Peter Bergen is a senior fellow at the New America Foundation and the author of “The Osama bin Laden I Know.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

‘Terror’ Is the Enemy

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14bobbitt.html
December 14, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor | Transitions
‘Terror’ Is the Enemy
By PHILIP BOBBITT [oped] [special series on the imminent transition (39 days?)] [what we call the interregnum in the US] [See Bobbitt, Bergen, Gerecht, et al.] [****]]
GENERALS are not the only ones who prepare to fight the previous war. Our experience with 20th-century nation-based terrorists — the I.R.A. in Ireland, the P.K.K. in the Kurdish areas of Turkey, ETA in Spain’s Basque country, the F.L.N. in Algeria and others — still dominates much of our thinking about how to deal with 21st-century global terrorists. [***]Indeed, the lack of new concepts may well be as deadly to our

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14bobbitt.html
December 14, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor | Transitions
‘Terror’ Is the Enemy
By PHILIP BOBBITT [oped] [special series on the imminent transition (39 days?)] [what we call the interregnum in the US] [See Bobbitt, Bergen, Gerecht, et al.] [****]]
GENERALS are not the only ones who prepare to fight the previous war. Our experience with 20th-century nation-based terrorists — the I.R.A. in Ireland, the P.K.K. in the Kurdish areas of Turkey, ETA in Spain’s Basque country, the F.L.N. in Algeria and others — still dominates much of our thinking about how to deal with 21st-century global terrorists. [***]Indeed, the lack of new concepts may well be as deadly to our national security as any lack of vaccines.

New approaches to dealing with global terrorism must first be integrated into our foreign security policies generally. Allies in Europe must be reassured that the United States will not violate the human rights accords to which we are a party. [***]We must also devise a policy that aligns the interests of Afghanistan, India and Pakistan while isolating the terrorists that threaten them all. We must seek common ground with many states around the world against our universal threats — global terrorists and pirates, the proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons and civilian catastrophes — even if, in other contexts, these nations are our adversaries. [and while doing all these things well, we must continue to worry about traditional state threats] [Russia grabbing the Crimea in Ukraine for instance] [‘*****]

The “war on terror” is not a nonsensical public relations slogan, however unwelcome this conclusion may be to Pentagon planners or civil-liberties advocates. The notion of such a war puzzles us — after all, who would sign the peace treaty? — because we are so trapped in 20th-century expectations about warfare. But success in war does not always mean the capitulation of an enemy government (as we have seen in Iraq); rather, it varies with the war aim.

In a war against terror, the aim is not the conquest of territory or the advancement of ideology, but the protection of civilians. We are fighting a war on terror, not just terrorists. [***]That is evident from the list of targets in the attacks in Mumbai, India, in which national liberation terrorists from Kashmir were apparently the outsourced operational arm of a global network with far more ambitious, and more anti-Western, objectives. The Mumbai terrorists did not even bother to issue demands; what they sought was terror itself.

Mexico is potentially our Pakistan — a failing state on our border that can provide haven for our adversaries, at least some of whom will be privatized terrorists. Imagine a poorer, less-democratic Mexico; [***]then imagine it harboring extortionists with a small arsenal of deliverable nuclear or biological weapons. This may be a long-term threat, but it requires immediate assistance and cooperation.

But Pakistan is our Pakistan, too, and not just India’s or Afghanistan’s problem. “Homeland security” is a dangerous solecism when we are fighting a global adversary that moves easily across borders. If terror is our adversary, then our own health system, for example, is only as secure as the most vulnerable health system overseas that might spawn an epidemic that could quickly reach our shores. [****]

We must use available international institutions — like the International Criminal Court, to which pirates and other terrorists could be rendered — whenever possible. Yet we must not shrink from augmenting them, for example, by creating a global body similar to NATO including other democracies, by enlarging the United Nations Security Council to include other great states, and by giving new security responsibilities to the Group of Eight. [****]

Our legislators need more foresight, stockpiling laws for emergencies just as we stockpile vaccines. Perhaps the most obvious would be a provision to replace members of Congress who might be killed or disabled in such numbers that the House of Representatives itself is unable to act. This could easily have occurred on 9/11 if the fourth plane had struck the Capitol, which would have plunged the country into months of martial law.

Finally, the Obama administration can have no higher priority than forging links with the private sector to protect what has become the electronic foundation for contemporary life. Unless the government, perhaps through insurance mandates, can persuade private companies to harden themselves to cyber-attacks, the deregulated and fragmented owners of our digital backbone will inevitably underfinance such protection.

This last observation points to the interrelation between the three arenas of the war on terror: 21st-century terrorists, the commodification of weapons of mass destruction, and the increasing vulnerability of highly developed nations like our own. Educating our public about this new tripartite threat will place enormous demands on our political leadership.

The presidential election was the end of the first phase of the war on terror. Preventing any attacks on the United States since 9/11 is something for which the Bush administration must be given credit, but credit must also go to the American public, which decisively rejected offshore penal colonies, spurious rationalizations for warfare, secret torture chambers and contempt for the constitutional and international laws that would forbid such practices. Indeed, by selecting a former law professor as its new president, the country has thoroughly dismissed the notion that law is an obstacle rather than a guide to achieving security.

Philip Bobbitt, a law professor at Columbia and the author of “Terror and Consent: The Wars for the 21st Century,” is a former senior director at the National Security Council.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Intelligence Boosters

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14brown.html
December 14, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor | Transitions
Intelligence Boosters
By ART BROWN
Vienna, Va.
THIS is the article I never intended to write. For former C.I.A. officers, the tipping point between debate-generating critique and “if they had only listened to me” pontification is easy to cross, and I had hoped to avoid the latter by simply

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14brown.html
December 14, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor | Transitions
Intelligence Boosters
By ART BROWN
Vienna, Va.
THIS is the article I never intended to write. For former C.I.A. officers, the tipping point between debate-generating critique and “if they had only listened to me” pontification is easy to cross, and I had hoped to avoid the latter by simply refraining from attempts at the former. So let’s be clear, I am not claiming to have been prescient. [****]It took more than three years outside the agency for me to truly understand its problems and to see a possible solution.

To start with the bottom line, the C.I.A.’s human spy business is not answering the hardest questions. How can I know this, three years out of touch with the secret stuff? The answer is rather simple: because Osama bin Laden is still the head of Al Qaeda. And no one has been held accountable for failing to catch him. [****]

By the evening of Sept. 11, 2001, every serving C.I.A. officer — indeed, every American — knew that the agency had one prime mission: “Get him!” But, after more than seven years and billions of dollars, we have failed. I recognize much has been done to damage Al Qaeda’s networks but, make no mistake, no amount of “rendition” of bin Laden lieutenants can mask our failure to bring to justice the man who ordered 9/11. [****]

There are other failures too, less dramatic perhaps but of even greater consequence. The clandestine creep of nuclear know-how threatens to put the worst weapons into the worst hands. If North Korea or Iran, or Shangri-La for that matter, claims the right to develop a nuclear fist, our intelligence services should know every detail about that program. Yet we collectively fail over and over again when North Korea tests a missile or nuclear reactor construction in the eastern Syrian desert come as a surprise. If the C.I.A.’s human spy arm was operating as a private business, it would be running at a loss. Think Detroit, not 007. [****]

Why? First, the agency is simply too insular. It does not sufficiently tap into the expertise that exists across the breadth of America. The human spy components of the C.I.A. live in a cocoon of secrecy that breeds distrust of outsiders. This is one reason very few officers have BlackBerrys, and those few who do usually leave them in their cars when they go to work. Despite their reputation as plugged-in experts on other countries, many C.I.A. officers do not even have Internet access at their desks. Worse yet, they don’t think they need it. [disastrous] [how can it be that they don’t have basic internet access?] [that should have been a Negroponte-Hayden-McConnel top priority] [time and again. The post mortems noted agencies did not communicate] [it’s worse] [they can’t get the instant fact check I get scores of times daily] [*****]

Second, the C.I.A. has a terrible problem with quality control. When I was still there, for example, C.I.A. spies reported on several occasions that Al Qaeda had plans to attack American military bases overseas — in countries that a quick Web search would have shown had no such bases. Quantity outweighed quality as folks in the spy business focused not on accuracy or impact, but on increasing amounts of product.

And that brings us to perhaps the most numbing factor, the lack of performance accountability. In my years in the agency, I cannot recall a single case where anyone was fired for failing to perform. I cannot even remember anyone being demoted. There is simply no job-threatening penalty for mediocrity. Think of this on Jan. 20, when we’re likely to see Osama bin Laden sending an inauguration greeting to the new president. [****]

So let me float a proposal borrowed from the business world. If you want to find answers to the hardest questions, why not reach broadly into the expertise of the country and assemble the best spy team possible?

On Shangri-La’s nuclear ambitions, it would probably mean including a few engineers who build our own bombs. They could make sure you understand the missing parts of the puzzle and how those parts may be hidden. You’d also want successful entrepreneurs — both American and allied — who know how to make deals in Shangri-La and can point you to others who deal there more often.

It goes further. Good freelance reporters know how to find sources to fill in a hard story. The expertise of academia, where decades of insight often go untouched, could be balanced with a seasoned detective or tough prosecutor adept at turning a crook. The more military the topic, the more military folks you would want on its pursuit. The spy business simply isn’t that difficult, and the sleight-of-hand techniques of the trade, some reaching back to Joshua’s spies at Jericho, can be fairly quickly learned. It is creativity, judgment and the ability to reach a goal on time that are hard to teach.

The agency would not lure these outside experts with a career or give them ranks or titles. That only breeds the ladder-climbing trap that sees newly minted C.I.A. managers, six months into their assignments, planning how they might climb that next rung. Rather, the agency could compile teams of accomplished Americans for a fixed period of service and then let them return to their respective fields. (Much of the work could be done over the Internet, allowing some of them to keep their day jobs.) Their incentive would be the chance to make a real difference, with maybe a decent payment at the end if the project is a success. [I’d loved to be asked] [****]

Yes, there are some obstacles here. Using “normal” citizens in a covert role could require giving them legal protections that may not exist right now. Getting consensus among policymakers and Congress, and isolating the hard questions from the headlines of the day, will be a difficult challenge. And, more insidiously, wounded institutional pride at the C.I.A. could generate bureaucratic knife-fighting by employees who would rather see the quest fail than give credit to “amateur” operators. The safe bet is that none of this will ever happen.

But is it not worth trying? It would certainly be worth breaking some existing rules if we could really assemble a better spying apparatus from the best parts America has to offer. When it comes to the hard stuff, we couldn’t do much worse.
Art Brown, a 25-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency, was the head of the Asia division of the agency’s clandestine service from 2003 to 2005.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Separating the Terror and the Terrorists

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14pubed.html
December 14, 2008
The Public Editor
Separating the Terror and the Terrorists
By CLARK HOYT [editorial] [public editor) Mumbai] [****]
WHEN 10 young men in an inflatable lifeboat came ashore in Mumbai last month and went on a rampage with machine guns and grenades, taking hostages, setting fires and murdering men, women and children, they were initially described in The Times by many labels.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14pubed.html
December 14, 2008
The Public Editor
Separating the Terror and the Terrorists
By CLARK HOYT [editorial] [public editor) Mumbai] [****]
WHEN 10 young men in an inflatable lifeboat came ashore in Mumbai last month and went on a rampage with machine guns and grenades, taking hostages, setting fires and murdering men, women and children, they were initially described in The Times by many labels.

They were “militants,” “gunmen,” “attackers” and “assailants.” Their actions, which left bodies strewn in the city’s largest train station, five-star hotels, a Jewish center, a cafe and a hospital — were described as “coordinated terrorist attacks.” But the men themselves were not called terrorists.

Many readers could not understand it. “I am so offended as to why the NY Times and a number of other news organizations are calling the perpetrators ‘militants,’ ” wrote “Bill” in a comment posted on The Times’s Web site. “Murderers, or terrorists perhaps but militants? Is your PC going to get so absurd that you will refer to them as ‘freedom fighters?’ ”

The Mumbai terror attacks posed a familiar semantic issue for Times editors: what to call people who pursue political, religious, territorial, or unidentifiable goals through violence on civilians. Many readers want the newspaper, even on the news pages, to share their moral outrage — or their political views — by adopting the word terrorist, with all its connotations of opprobrium. What you call someone matters. If he is a terrorist, he is an enemy of all civilized people, and his cause is less worthy of consideration.

In the newsroom and at overseas bureaus, especially Jerusalem, there has been a lot of soul-searching about the terminology of terrorism. Editors and reporters have asked whether, to avoid the appearance of taking sides, the paper bends itself into a pretzel or risks appearing callous to abhorrent acts. They have wrestled with questions like why those responsible for the 9/11 attacks are called terrorists but the murderers of a little girl in her bed in a Jewish settlement are not. And whether, if the use of the word terrorist can be interpreted as a political act, not using it is one too.

The issue comes up most often in connection with the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, and to the dismay of supporters of Israel — and sometimes supporters of the other side, denouncing Israeli military actions — The Times is sparing in its use of “terrorist” when reporting on that complex struggle.

The reluctance carried over when the Mumbai attacks began. Graham Bowley, who was writing for a Times blog, The Lede, said, “I’m aware very much of the sensitivity around the word, so I knew they had to be ‘attackers’ ” until the paper knew more. One of his editors, Andrea Kannapell, told me she was much more focused in the early hours on who the people were and what they were doing than on what to call them.

Readers like “Bill” were having none of it, and as Jim Roberts, the editor of the Web site, read their comments, he began to think they had a point. “Indiscriminately shooting civilians seems on its very face to be an act of terror,” he said. How, Roberts wondered, could you separate the act from the actor?

He conferred with Kannapell, Paul Winfield, the news editor, and Phil Corbett, Winfield’s deputy. Winfield talked with Ian Fisher, a deputy foreign editor. “Terrorist” became an acceptable term in the Mumbai story. “We jointly decided we didn’t need to be throwing the word around flagrantly, but we didn’t need to run away from it, either,” Roberts said.

Ilsa and Lisa Klinghoffer, whose father, Leon, was shot and thrown from a cruise ship by Palestinian terrorists in 1985, wrote a letter to the editor asking why The Times was referring to Lashkar-e-Taiba, the shadowy group that apparently orchestrated the Mumbai attacks, as a “militant group.” “When people kill innocent civilians for political gain, they should be called ‘terrorists,’ ” the sisters said.

Susan Chira, the foreign editor, said The Times may eventually put that label on Lashkar, but reporters are still trying to learn more about it. “Our instinct is to proceed with caution, not rushing to label any group with the word terrorist before we have a deeper understanding of its full dimensions,” she said.

To the consternation of many, The Times does not call Hamas a terrorist organization, though it sponsors acts of terror against Israel. Hamas was elected to govern Gaza. It provides social services and operates charities, hospitals and clinics. Corbett said: “You get to the question: Somebody works in a Hamas clinic — is that person a terrorist? We don’t want to go there.” I think that is right.

Ethan Bronner, the Jerusalem bureau chief, said, “Our general view is that the word terrorist is politically loaded and overused.” But he said that sometimes, “when a person’s act has been examined and its intent and result clearly understood, we call him a terrorist.” Thus, a front-page story last July called a Lebanese man about to be exchanged for two dead Israeli soldiers a terrorist. The man, a fighter for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, had slipped into Israel nearly 30 years before and murdered a man and his 4-year-old daughter.

James Bennet, now the editor of The Atlantic, was The Times’s Jerusalem bureau chief from 2001 through 2004. After his return, he wrote a two-page memo to Chira on the use of “terrorism” and “terrorist” that is still cited by editors, though the paper has no formal policy on the terms. His memo said it was easy to call certain egregious acts terrorism “and have the whole world agree with you.” The problem, he said, was where to stop before every stone-throwing Palestinian was called a terrorist and the paper was making a political statement.

Bennet wrote that he initially avoided the word terrorism altogether and thought it more useful to describe an attack in as vivid detail as possible so readers could decide their own labels. But he came to believe that never using the word “felt so morally neutral as to be a little sickening. The calculated bombing of students in a university cafeteria, or of families gathered in an ice-cream parlor, cries out to be called what it is,” he wrote.

The memo said he settled on a rough rule: He would use the words, when they fit, to describe attacks within Israel’s 1948 borders but not in the occupied West Bank or Gaza, which Israel and the Palestinians have been contending over since Israel took them in 1967. When a gunman infiltrated a settlement and killed a 5-year-old girl in her bed, Bennet did not call it terrorism. “All I could do was default to my first approach and describe the attack and the victims as vividly as I could.”

I do not think it is possible to write a set of hard and fast rules for the T-words, and I think The Times is both thoughtful about them and maybe a bit more conservative in their use than I would be.

My own broad guideline: If it looks as if it was intended to sow terror and it shocks the conscience, whether it is planes flying into the World Trade Center, gunmen shooting up Mumbai, or a political killer in a little girl’s bedroom, I’d call it terrorism — by terrorists.
The public editor can be reached by e-mail: public@nytimes.com.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Cars, Kabul and Banks

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14friedman.html
December 14, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist
Cars, Kabul and Banks
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN [oped] [columnist] [3-front burner issues for Obama] [***]
If there is anything I’ve learned as a reporter, it’s that when you get away from “the thing itself” — the core truth about a situation — you get into trouble. Barack Obama will have to make three mammoth decisions after he takes the oath of office — on cars, Kabul and banks — and we have to hope that he bases those decisions on the things themselves, the core truths about each. Because many people will be trying to throw fairy dust in his eyes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14friedman.html
December 14, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist
Cars, Kabul and Banks
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN [oped] [columnist] [3-front burner issues for Obama] [***]
If there is anything I’ve learned as a reporter, it’s that when you get away from “the thing itself” — the core truth about a situation — you get into trouble. Barack Obama will have to make three mammoth decisions after he takes the oath of office — on cars, Kabul and banks — and we have to hope that he bases those decisions on the things themselves, the core truths about each. Because many people will be trying to throw fairy dust in his eyes.

The first issue will be whether to bail out Detroit. [***]What is the core truth about Detroit? Auto executives will tell you that it’s the credit crisis, health care, retirement costs and unions. Sure, those are real. But the core truth is that for way too long Detroit made too many cars that too many people did not want to buy. [****]As even General Motors conceded in its apology ad last week: “At times we violated your trust by letting our quality fall below industry standards and our designs become lackluster.” Walk through any college campus today. You don’t see a lot of Buicks.

Over the years, Detroit bosses kept repeating: “We have to make the cars people want.” That’s why they’re in trouble. Their job is to make the cars people don’t know they want but will buy like crazy when they see them. I[***] would have been happy with my Sony Walkman had Apple not invented the iPod. Now I can’t live without my iPod. I didn’t know I wanted it, but Apple did. Same with my Toyota hybrid.

The auto consultant John Casesa once noted that Detroit’s management has gone from visionaries to operators to caretakers. I would say that they have now gone from caretakers to undertakers. If they are ready to bring in some visionaries and totally restructure — inside or outside of bankruptcy — so they can make money selling cars that people will want to buy, then I say help them. [***]I’d hate to see the Detroit auto industry go under. But if all we are doing is prolonging auto undertakers, then we have to let nature take its course.

After Detroit, Mr. Obama will be asked to bail out Afghanistan. Watch out. The tide has turned against us there because too many Afghans don’t want to buy our politics, or, more precisely, the politics of our ally, the corrupt government of President Hamid Karzai. That is “the thing itself.” [*****]

The main reason our Iraq bailout — a k a “the surge” — has had a positive effect is because Iraqis voted with their own guns and their own lives, taking on both Al Qaeda and pro-Iranian Shiite militants. Iraq has avoided bankruptcy for the moment — a total meltdown — because enough Iraqis wanted what we were selling: freedom from extremists. [***]That is the thing itself, and right now I’m not seeing enough of that thing in Afghanistan. Beware of a Kabul bailout.

But maybe the most flagrant area where we continue to avoid looking at “the thing itself” is with our banks. What we are dealing with there is the effect of a credit bubble that began in the late-1980s with the advent of global securitization — the chopping up and bundling into bonds of everything from home mortgages to student loans to airplane leases, and then selling them around the world. [****]

When you take this much leverage and this much globalization and this much complexity and start it in America, and then blow it up, you have a nuclear financial explosion. The deflating of this credit bubble is so wealth-destroying that even the most prudent banks have been ravaged by it. [****] [use ir text]

What to do? The smartest people I know in banking are praying that Obama’s Treasury Department will tackle “the thing itself.” That is, do a real analysis of what the major banks are worth in a worst-case scenario. Then determine, if, on that basis, they have viable, survivable equity-to-asset ratios.

Those that do should get more government investment. Those that are close should be forced to find new investors and merge. And those not viable should be shut down and have their bad assets bought by a government-owned body (which would sell them over time) and their deposits shifted to healthy banks to make those banks even healthier. Some experts believe we still need to close 1,000 banks.

This process will be painful, but probably by the end of a year the market will clear, investors will come in, and the surviving banks will be ready to lend to each other and you and me. The “thing itself” here is that banks still don’t want to lend because they still don’t know the true value of their own balance sheets, let alone anyone else’s.

The market has to clear. We can do it painfully and quickly, as we did with the dot-coms, or we can be Japan and drag it out.

So whether its cars, Kabul or banks, we have to stop wishing for the worlds we want and start dealing with the things themselves. If Obama does, his first year will be excruciatingly painful, but he could have three years after that to be creative. If he doesn’t, I fear that cars, Kabul and banks will dog his whole presidency.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Hollow Reserves

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14sun1.html
December 14, 2008
Editorial | The State of the Forces
Hollow Reserves
[editorial] [at the end of President Bush’s tenure, where does America’s military stand?] [pretty badly] [*****]
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have put enormous strains on all of the men and women of the United States military. The last seven years have been especially hard on those serving in the National Guard and other reserve forces, who too often have had to shortchange their families, finances and careers to accommodate lengthy, repeated and unexpected tours of active duty overseas. Many are tired and demoralized. [***]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/opinion/14sun1.html
December 14, 2008
Editorial | The State of the Forces
Hollow Reserves
[editorial] [at the end of President Bush’s tenure, where does America’s military stand?] [pretty badly] [*****]
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have put enormous strains on all of the men and women of the United States military. The last seven years have been especially hard on those serving in the National Guard and other reserve forces, who too often have had to shortchange their families, finances and careers to accommodate lengthy, repeated and unexpected tours of active duty overseas. Many are tired and demoralized. [***]

American communities that depend on the National Guard to provide the first line of domestic defense are also being shortchanged. The years of prolonged overseas deployments have stretched Guard units dangerously thin and left the Guard with barely 60 percent of the equipment it needs to carry out its basic missions. That raises serious doubts about the Guard’s readiness to respond to either a natural disaster or a terrorist attack. [****]

These problems arose because the Bush administration badly underestimated the number of ground troops needed to simultaneously wage war in Iraq and Afghanistan, and has had to rely far too heavily on the National Guard and the Reserves to make up the differences.

More than 450,000 men and women serve in the Army and Air National Guard, and somewhat less than 400,000 in the Army, Navy, Marine and Air Force Reserves. Roughly half a million of these part-time soldiers have fought in Iraq or Afghanistan — many for more than one tour. At one point in 2005, nearly half the United States front-line fighting forces in Iraq, and more than half in Afghanistan, came from the Guard and the Reserves.

Those percentages have come down since Robert Gates took charge of the Pentagon and began addressing the problem, in part by beginning a needed expansion — long opposed by the Bush White House — of the active-duty Army and Marine forces. But over 20 percent of American forces in Afghanistan and over 10 percent in Iraq still come from the Guard and the Reserves.

Reserve units are meant to be sent overseas, although only for limited periods in national emergencies or as part of full-scale wartime mobilizations. Most reservists, like Guard members, have civilian jobs and family economic responsibilities. Their units are generally the last in line for getting new equipment and maintaining combat readiness.

Guard units sent overseas experience similar problems. And their overuse abroad creates a dangerous void in their home states. Governors throughout history have depended on locally available, properly equipped National Guard units to respond to natural disasters and other emergencies — a mission that has become even more urgent since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Regular Army troops and military Reserve units are legally barred from domestic law enforcement duties. National Guard troops are not.

These prolonged deployments have dealt another blow to communities. In civilian life, many Guard and Reserve members serve as police officers, firefighters and emergency medics. When they are mobilized to help out the overstretched active-duty Army, they are not available to respond to emergencies at home.

Much of the Guard’s best gear has followed these soldiers overseas and stayed there. Earlier this year, the Pentagon reported that just for the Army National Guard, equipment shortfalls amounted to nearly $50 billion. Among the equipment that must be restocked are helicopters, cargo trucks, chemical decontamination gear, night vision goggles, radios and satellite communications kits. These items are essential for dealing with domestic emergencies.

In response to Congressional pressure, the most recent defense budgets have included substantially increased spending for resupplying Guard units at home and abroad. But at present rates, the Guard will still be more than 20 percent short of its equipment needs when the current resupply program ends in 2013.

The men and women who join the Guard and the Reserves understand that they are not just signing up to be weekend warriors. But there can be no excuse for the way the Pentagon has overtaxed these units over the last seven years. And there is no letup in sight.

The 21st century has already shown that America’s need for active-duty ground forces will be considerably greater than once expected, not just for war-fighting, but also for training foreign forces, peacekeeping and other missions. It has also shown that assuring the security of America’s homeland has again become an essential requirement of overall defense planning.

The National Guard is ideally designed to reinforce homeland security. The Reserves are meant to provide America with rapidly expandable armed forces in times of unexpected, and temporary, crisis. Neither can perform these essential functions properly the way they are being used today.

Defense Secretary Gates set the right standard almost two years ago when he declared that ideally, reservists should not be mobilized for active duty more frequently than one year out of every six.

We urge President-elect Barack Obama to continue the expansion of active-duty forces. Relieving the stress on the Guard and the Reserves — allowing them to fulfill their primary missions — is one more reason why Mr. Obama must live up to his commitment for an early, orderly drawdown of troops in Iraq. The administration and Congress must also provide the National Guard with more money to accelerate its resupply efforts.
No one can predict the timing or the nature of the next domestic emergency. The country cannot afford to be caught unprepared.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Trying to Stop Pollution From Killing a Lifeline

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/asia/14river.html
December 14, 2008
Trying to Stop Pollution From Killing a Lifeline
By PETER GELLING [global climate change] [potential for resource wars] [use psci350] [****]
BEKASI, Indonesia — The Citarum River, which winds its way through West Java past terraced rice paddies and teeming cities, is an assault on the senses. Visitors can smell the river before they see it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/asia/14river.html
December 14, 2008
Trying to Stop Pollution From Killing a Lifeline
By PETER GELLING [global climate change] [potential for resource wars] [use psci350] [****]
BEKASI, Indonesia — The Citarum River, which winds its way through West Java past terraced rice paddies and teeming cities, is an assault on the senses. Visitors can smell the river before they see it.

Some fishermen still make their living off the river’s fouled waters, but many are no longer casting lures. Instead, they row their boats through floating garbage, foraging for old tires and other trash they can sell.

The river, considered by many environmentalists to be among the world’s most polluted, is woven tightly into the lives of the West Javanese.

It provides 80 percent of household water for Jakarta’s 14 million people, irrigates farms that supply 5 percent of Indonesia’s rice and is a source of water for more than 2,000 factories, which are responsible for a fifth of the country’s industrial output, according to the Asian Development Bank.

Villagers living along its banks use the Citarum’s dangerous waters to wash their clothes — and themselves.

Almost everyone sees the river as something of a movable dump: a convenient receptacle for factories’ chemical-laced effluent, farms’ pesticide-filled runoff, and human waste.

As a result, in stretches of the river near Jakarta, fish have been almost wiped out, destroying the livelihoods of thousands of fishermen.

“I know the color of the river is not right,” said Sutri, the owner of a small restaurant in Bekasi, an industrial suburb of Jakarta. “But I don’t know anything about dangerous chemicals. Anyway, there is nowhere else for me to get water.”

Sutri — who like many Indonesians uses only one name — said she washed the restaurant’s dishes in the river, along with her clothes and her children.

Environmentalists blame rapid, and unregulated, industrialization and urbanization over the past 20 years for the degradation of the 5,000-square-mile river basin.

The environmental damage is already costing lives; flooding, caused by deforestation and drains clogged with garbage, is a constant problem in cities along the Citarum.

The list of woes is worrying enough that the development bank committed this month to provide Indonesia with a $500 million, multiyear loan to finance a wide-ranging cleanup and rehabilitation plan devised by the bank and the government.

The money would be used clean the Citarum and the West Tarum Canal, which connects it to Jakarta, and to create a long-term plan for how to best use the river. A portion of the loan would go toward setting up an independent organization that would become the steward of the Citarum.

But even before the bank has begun to dole out the loan, it has opposition from local civic groups. They fear that the government is taking on too much debt and that there are inadequate protections to ensure that the poor see enough benefits and that the money is not lost to the corruption that is endemic in Indonesia.

“We are worried that the money could be lost through corruption,” said Nugraha, 30, a community activist who has been working to clean up this Jakarta suburb since he graduated from high school.

“And we are worried the farmers will be left out,” he continued. “The focus seems to be on the people of Jakarta, not the local people here.”

That the battle lines are being drawn so early, and despite the obvious need for change, is not surprising. “Water wars” in the United States and elsewhere can be nasty affairs.

Like most such battles, the fight over the Citarum will revolve around the complex issues of equity, economic development and environmental protection. Coming up with a plan that satisfies everyone’s needs will be difficult.

Raising community activists’ concerns, the first $50 million of the Asian Development Bank’s loan is designated for cleaning up the canal that brings the river’s waters to Jakarta, and for additional treatment plants. Because of health concerns, residents of the city rarely drink out of the tap, opting instead for bottled water.

Christopher Morris, a water resources engineer with the development bank, says it is committed to financing projects over 15 years that will benefit all the river’s users. Not all of the projects can be done quickly, he said.

“We are taking a long-term approach while recognizing there are some things we can fix quickly,” Mr. Morris said. “But changing the behavior of the community takes a lot of careful planning and preparation.”

Among the goals: building waste treatment plants to clean household water for the Greater Jakarta area, creating more dams so that additional water will be available for growing communities like Bandung, Indonesia’s fourth largest city, and simply cleaning the river so people living near it, including fishermen, can again depend on the source of water.

The plan calls for reforesting stretches of the river basin to help erosion and landslides that clog the river and regularly cause floods in Bandung, in Bekasi and elsewhere.

The tricky part of the work will be getting the many people who rely on the river for their living, or simply to live, to agree to changes. Conflicts can arise over the allocation of water between farmers who use it for irrigation and city dwellers. And trying to get farmers to use more efficient irrigation methods, so there is more water for others, can be challenging.

The solution proposed by the Asian Development Bank and the Indonesian government is a “water council,” with half the representatives from government agencies and half from the communities involved and nongovernmental organizations.

What authority the council would have remains to be seen; different levels of government already disagree about water allocation.

Of particular concern to community activists is how this council might be manipulated, becoming yet another avenue for corrupt practices.

Mr. Morris said the bank had not been blind to the opportunities for the money to be misused. That, he said, is why the bank decided to parcel the loan out over many years.

“The point is to make the money available to the government in an efficient way, so they aren’t sitting with a loan and paying charges on it until they actually need to use it,” he said. “But it also allows us to put in some safeguards and implement our anticorruption policies and other policies the Asian Development Bank promotes.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Ousted Thai Leader Sends Message

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/asia/14thai.html
December 14, 2008
Ousted Thai Leader Sends Message
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Thailand] [SEA] [le ancient regime returns] [military coup supplanted former regime] [among other changes, the new regime took the position that it could negotiate with jihadis and separatist in south] [the ousted Premiere returned in spring (March I think) and now is back in exile] [this was unruly in late August-early September] [it’s taken a decided turn for the worse] [followup] [*****]
BANGKOK (Reuters) — Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra called for national reconciliation on Saturday and urged the military not to meddle in a parliamentary vote for a new leader next week.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/asia/14thai.html
December 14, 2008
Ousted Thai Leader Sends Message
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Thailand] [SEA] [le ancient regime returns] [military coup supplanted former regime] [among other changes, the new regime took the position that it could negotiate with jihadis and separatist in south] [the ousted Premiere returned in spring (March I think) and now is back in exile] [this was unruly in late August-early September] [it’s taken a decided turn for the worse] [followup] [*****]
BANGKOK (Reuters) — Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra called for national reconciliation on Saturday and urged the military not to meddle in a parliamentary vote for a new leader next week.

Mr. Thaksin, who was ousted by the military in a September 2006 coup and lives in exile, spoke in a 20-minute recorded speech shown on big screens to 40,000 supporters at a Bangkok stadium.

“May all sides take one step back and respect the results,” he said. “Please don’t use any institution to intervene. Just let the country move forward. Don’t make people suffer more.”

Parliament is voting for a new prime minister because Somchai Wongsawat, Mr. Thaksin’s brother-in-law, was forced to step down after a court found his People Power Party guilty of fraud in the December 2007 election that brought it to power.

A day after the ruling, the anti-Thaksin People’s Alliance for Democracy ended a blockade of Bangkok’s main airports that had caused chaos for thousands of travelers.

Parliament is expected to vote on Monday, with the opposition Democrat Party favored to emerge at the head of a weak coalition government.

Thaksin supporters have accused the military of attempting a soft coup by claiming to have royal backing and pushing small parties from the previous government to form a coalition with the Democrats, a charge the army has denied.

The ousted leader urged his rivals to respect the 2007 election results, which his People Power Party won. The court ordered that party and two others in the coalition disbanded. All three have regrouped under new names.

Mr. Thaksin was accused of corruption and abuse of power after being re-elected to a second term.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Asian Leaders Focus on Growth at 3-Nation Summit Meeting

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/asia/14japan.html
December 14, 2008
Asian Leaders Focus on Growth at 3-Nation Summit Meeting
By MARTIN FACKLER [Asai][NEAsia] [emerging e3] [China, Japan, South Korea] [probably ought to add india at some point] [******]
TOKYO — The leaders of China, Japan and South Korea on Saturday held their nations’ first joint summit meeting, which had been intended to overcome political animosities but instead focused on a joint Asian response to the global economic crisis.

The one-day meeting in Dazaifu, Japan, ended with sweeping promises to turn Asia into an engine of growth, but offered few specifics. The three leaders — Prime Minister Taro

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/asia/14japan.html
December 14, 2008
Asian Leaders Focus on Growth at 3-Nation Summit Meeting
By MARTIN FACKLER [Asai][NEAsia] [emerging e3] [China, Japan, South Korea] [probably ought to add india at some point] [******]
TOKYO — The leaders of China, Japan and South Korea on Saturday held their nations’ first joint summit meeting, which had been intended to overcome political animosities but instead focused on a joint Asian response to the global economic crisis.

The one-day meeting in Dazaifu, Japan, ended with sweeping promises to turn Asia into an engine of growth, but offered few specifics. The three leaders — Prime Minister Taro Aso of Japan, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China and President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea — also discussed regional political issues like ending North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

The leaders promised new stimulus spending to increase domestic demand and pick up the slack in global growth left by the United States’ slowdown. Japan and China also agreed to open lines of foreign currency credit to South Korea, whose economy has been hit hardest.

In a joint news conference after their meeting, the leaders said most of their discussion focused on overcoming financial troubles.

Despite the lack of concrete results, the three-way summit meeting won wide attention in the region for being held at all. Despite their geographical proximity and shared cultural backgrounds, the three nations remain divided by often emotional disagreements over history and territory, as well as growing economic and technological rivalry.

The meeting was originally planned months ago, before the turmoil in financial markets began in September, with the vague goals of building good will and establishing political dialogue. The nations’ leaders have held three-way meetings in the past, but only on the sidelines of larger international conferences.

In a joint statement, the leaders hailed the meeting as having built trust among the nations. They also pledged to increase economic links and expand social and cultural exchanges.

The leaders agreed to increase dialogue by holding three-way summit meetings regularly. The statement said the nations would hold a second one next year in China, and a third in South Korea.

“It is the first time historically for the three countries to hold an independent summit,” Mr. Aso said. “It is epoch-making progress for the leaders of the three countries to hold meetings regularly and strengthen ties.”

Among the meeting’s few concrete results were agreements by Japan and China to lend foreign currency to South Korea to shore up its currency, the won, which has dropped by a third against the dollar since the current crisis began. The agreements will expand what are known as currency swap deals in which the Korean central bank is allowed to borrow foreign currency from the other nations’ central banks using won as collateral. Tokyo promised to make available the equivalent of $20 billion, while Beijing pledged $26 billion.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Fears of New Ethnic Conflict in Bosnia

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/europe/14bosnia.html
December 14, 2008
Fears of New Ethnic Conflict in Bosnia
By DAN BILEFSKY [former Yugoslavia] [Bosnia] [Dayton accords] [residual of 1990s] [a pretty good predictor of what can be expected in Kosovo over next several years] [Russia continues to back its Slav brethren] [otherwise, Perm 5 support Kosovo independence] [while in Europe Radovan Karadzic captured] [BBC coverage extensive] [he’s since been moved to Hague where verbal sparing has begun] [followup August 5] [****]
SARAJEVO, Bosnia and Herzegovina — Thirteen years after the United States brokered the Dayton peace agreement to end the ferocious ethnic war in the former

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/europe/14bosnia.html
December 14, 2008
Fears of New Ethnic Conflict in Bosnia
By DAN BILEFSKY [former Yugoslavia] [Bosnia] [Dayton accords] [residual of 1990s] [a pretty good predictor of what can be expected in Kosovo over next several years] [Russia continues to back its Slav brethren] [otherwise, Perm 5 support Kosovo independence] [while in Europe Radovan Karadzic captured] [BBC coverage extensive] [he’s since been moved to Hague where verbal sparing has begun] [followup August 5] [****]
SARAJEVO, Bosnia and Herzegovina — Thirteen years after the United States brokered the Dayton peace agreement to end the ferocious ethnic war in the former Yugoslavia, fears are mounting that Bosnia, poor and divided, is again teetering toward crisis. [**]

On the surface, this haunted capital, its ancient mosques and Orthodox churches still pocked by mortar fire, appears to be enjoying a renaissance. Young professionals throng to stylish cafes and gleaming new shopping malls while the muezzin heralds the morning prayer. The ghosts of Srebrenica linger — recalling the worst massacre in Europe since World War II — but Sarajevans prefer to talk about President-elect Barack Obama or the global financial crisis.

Yet for the first time in years, talk of the prospect of another war is creeping into conversations across the ethnic divide in Bosnia, a former Yugoslav republic that the Dayton agreement divided into two entities, a Muslim-Croat Federation and a Serbian Republic. [***]

The power-sharing agreement between former foes has always been tense. Now, however, the uneasy peace has been complicated by Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia in February, which many here worry could prompt the Serbian Republic to follow suit, tipping the region into a conflict that could fast turn deadly.

“It’s time to pay attention to Bosnia again, if we don’t want things to get nasty very quickly,” [***]Richard C. Holbrooke, the Clinton administration official who brokered the Dayton accord, and Paddy Ashdown, formerly the West’s top diplomat in Bosnia, warned recently in an open letter published in several newspapers. “By now, the entire world knows the price of that.”

The peace agreement, negotiated at a United States Air Force base near Dayton, Ohio, in November 1995, accomplished its goal of ending a savage three-and-a-half-year war in which about 100,000 people were killed, a majority of them Muslims. A million more Muslims, Serbs and Croats were driven from their homes, while much of this rugged country’s infrastructure was destroyed.

But the decentralized political system that Dayton engineered has entrenched rather than healed ethnic divisions. Even in communities where Serbs, Muslims and Croats live side by side, some opt to send their children to the same schools, but in different shifts.

And the country’s leaders are so busy fighting one another that they are impeding Bosnia from progressing. Locked in an impasse of mutual recrimination are Haris Silajdzic — the Muslim in the country’s three-member presidency, who has called for the Serbian Republic to be abolished — and the Bosnian Serb prime minister, Milorad Dodik, who is supported by Russia and Serbia and who has dangled the threat that his republic could secede.

Bosnia, which has received more than $18 billion in foreign aid since 1995, remains a ward of the West, its security guaranteed by 2,000 European Union peacekeepers.

Sketching a worst-case example, Srecko Latal, a Bosnia specialist at the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network in Sarajevo, warned that if the Serbian Republic declared independence, Croatia would respond by sending in troops, while the Bosnian Muslims would take up arms. If Banja Luka, the capital of the Serbian Republic, were to fall, he continued, Serbia would be provoked into entering the fray, leading to the prospect of a regional war. [****]

“For the first time in years, people are talking about war,” Mr. Latal said. “They are tired of it, and they don’t want it. But it is not beyond the realm of possibility.”

Leaders across Bosnia expressed hope that Mr. Obama would be more engaged in Bosnia than President Bush has been, while emphasizing that the president-elect’s multicultural background made him ideally suited to mediate here.

And although Bosnia was featured in a painful campaign gaffe for the probable new secretary of state, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton — who stepped back from a claim that she had ducked sniper fire during a visit here as first lady — many here are optimistic that she will have a vested interest in salvaging Dayton as part of President Bill Clinton’s legacy.

Bosnia’s prospects for stability, analysts say, would also be helped if it joined the European Union, the world’s biggest trading bloc. But progress has not been encouraging. In a damning report assessing Bosnia’s readiness to join the bloc, the European Commission, the group’s executive body, warned in November that “inflammatory rhetoric has adversely affected the functioning of institutions and slowed down reform” while corruption and organized crime were significant.

The world is so concerned about Bosnia’s stability that the United Nations Security Council has extended the mandate of its senior envoy to Bosnia, who was supposed to leave this year, until June. Still, Miroslav Lajcak, the envoy, said in an interview that while the situation is critical, it was a sign of Bosnia’s progress that politics now trumped security as the biggest challenge.

“The political situation is difficult, volatile and unstable, but it is not undermining security,” he said. “Violence can’t be ruled out, but I don’t see the prospect of another war.”

For the country to progress, leaders on all sides say, the structure established by the Dayton accord must be overhauled. The country’s two entities have their own Parliaments, and there are 10 regional authorities, each with its own police force and education, health and judicial authorities.

The result is a byzantine system of government directed by 160 ministers, a structure that absorbs 50 percent of Bosnia’s gross domestic product of $15 billion, according to the World Bank.

While untangling that bureaucracy would be difficult, persuading the country’s leaders to put aside their fundamental differences might be harder.

In October 2007, the country experienced one of its worst political crises when Bosnian Serbs protested a new voting system aimed at preventing politicians from blocking major reform efforts by simply not showing up at meetings. [***]

Fearing that it could be outvoted by other ethnic groups under the new rules, the Serbian Republic condemned the measures and Mr. Dodik threatened to withdraw his party’s representatives from all Bosnian institutions. The crisis finally ended after some concessions were made to the Bosnian Serbs, and the European Union rewarded the country by initialing an agreement cementing Bosnia’s ties with the bloc.

Mr. Silajdzic, who as Bosnia’s wartime foreign minister was at Dayton, argued in an interview that the institutional structure created there had served to legitimize the genocidal policy of the Serbs during the war. He urged the world to help write a new Constitution that would create a unified state based on economic regions, effectively consigning the Serbian Republic to the dustbin.

“The problem with Dayton is that it created an ethnocracy rather than a democracy and has become an umbrella under which Slobodan Milosevic’s project of ethnic cleansing is hidden,” he said, referring to the former Serbian president. “If the situation is allowed to continue, the message this sends the world is, ‘Kill thy neighbor and get away with it.’ ”

For Mr. Dodik, the prime minister, such talk just proves that Bosnia’s Muslim leadership is intent on domination. [****]

“If Silajdzic doesn’t like Dayton, then why did he sign it?” he asked.

Mr. Dodik, a charismatic former basketball player with a large power base in the Serbian Republic, was once a Western darling for his wartime and postwar opposition to Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb nationalist leader now on trial in The Hague on war crime charges. But many Western diplomats say he has since adopted Mr. Karadzic’s nationalist language and they blame him for impeding Bosnia’s progress. [***]

Mr. Dodik recently further inflamed tensions by filing criminal charges against a senior United States envoy and foreign prosecutors in Bosnia, accusing them of plotting against his government after they opened a corruption investigation into the Serbian Republic’s infrastructure deals, including one for $146 million government building in Banja Luka.

“We are tired of being treated like a banana republic,” Mr. Dodik said.

Guessing whether he will tear the country apart has become a favorite parlor game in Bosnia in recent months. In the past, he has said that a referendum for independence could be a fair way to settle the Serbian Republic’s status.

But in a recent interview, he said that secession was not on his agenda.

“I have said many times that my aim is not secession and we have not taken a single step toward that,” Mr. Dodik said. “What has been said is a fabrication.”

Most Serbian analysts agree that secession would be tantamount to political suicide for the prime minister. Beyond the obvious threat of provoking a war, aligning the Serbian Republic with Serbia would diminish Mr. Dodik’s power and lead to further isolation internationally.

In the former Yugoslavia, the lives of Serbs, Croats and Muslims were closely entwined for 45 years, with intermarriage not uncommon in larger cities like Sarajevo. But Mr. Dodik said the dissolution of the old state and the war that followed had destroyed whatever optimism he once had about different ethnic groups collectively deciding one another’s fates.

“Bosnia is a divided country,” he said. “There is not a single event or holiday, except for New Year’s or the First of May, that we celebrate together. I have lost all of my illusions.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

In Russia, a Grisly Message Marks Rise in Hate Crimes

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121302156.html
In Russia, a Grisly Message Marks Rise in Hate Crimes
By Philip P. Pan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, December 14, 2008; A31 [Russia] [former USSR] [some of the authoritarian tendencies that have characterized Czar Putin’s last couple of years] [Vlad represents a lot of Russians who don’t care for the way the world has changed since 1991] [mostly understandable and Russia ethos] [use ir text] [use psci350] [another important piece on Russia modernizing its military] [Putin needs $80 per barrel, rebuild of military hollow] [since months ago records, oil has plummeted to $50-60 range] [Russia ethos] [use psci350] [use ir text] [Russian xenophobia is legendary] [particularly toward Central Asia Muslims] [*****]
MOS COW, Dec. 13 -- The e-mail that arrived Monday night in the inboxes of two

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121302156.html
In Russia, a Grisly Message Marks Rise in Hate Crimes
By Philip P. Pan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, December 14, 2008; A31 [Russia] [former USSR] [some of the authoritarian tendencies that have characterized Czar Putin’s last couple of years] [Vlad represents a lot of Russians who don’t care for the way the world has changed since 1991] [mostly understandable and Russia ethos] [use ir text] [use psci350] [another important piece on Russia modernizing its military] [Putin needs $80 per barrel, rebuild of military hollow] [since months ago records, oil has plummeted to $50-60 range] [Russia ethos] [use psci350] [use ir text] [Russian xenophobia is legendary] [particularly toward Central Asia Muslims] [*****]
MOS COW, Dec. 13 -- The e-mail that arrived Monday night in the inboxes of two organizations tracking hate crimes in Russia carried a disturbing message and an even more disturbing photo -- that of a man's severed head resting on a wooden chopping block. [****]

“This surprise was prepared for Moscow officials by concerned Russian people who can no longer tolerate the invasion of foreigners in their native city,” the message declared, accusing darker-skinned migrant workers from the Caucasus and Asia of “an unprecedented wave of criminality that has swamped our capital.” [***]0

“If officials continue to populate Russia with foreigners, we will have to start annihilating officials! Because there is no worse enemy than a traitor with the authorities who has betrayed his Russian origin,” it continued. “Officials, if you do not start evicting the blacks, we will begin taking revenge on you for their crimes! And it will be your turn to pay with your heads.” [that sounds like a declaration of war by non-state actors against the Russian state] [*****]

The e-mail was no hoax. Earlier in the day, a street cleaner had found a man's head wrapped in a plastic bag on a grassy area outside a government building in western Moscow. An autopsy confirmed it belonged to a native of Tajikistan [****]whose decapitated body was discovered last week in woods south of the city. [ethnic Russians live in Tajikistan!] [imagine the sort of tit-for-tat dynamic that could result] [****]

The beheading was splashed across the front pages of newspapers Friday. Although hate crimes, often by young neo-Nazi skinheads, are increasingly common in Russia, analysts say this is the first racially motivated killing to be accompanied by a political demand and a public claim of responsibility.

The e-mail was signed by a group calling itself the Militant Organization of Russian Nationalists, [****which neither police nor human rights groups had heard of previously.

"It's an outrageous crime and very worrying," said Natalia Rykova, executive director of the Moscow Bureau for Human Rights, one of the groups that received the e-mail. "It shows how cruel and inhuman the neo-Nazis can be, and that their ideology is becoming more popular."

Through the first 10 months of the year, Rykova's group recorded 269 hate crimes in Russia involving the deaths of 114 people, more than twice as many as last year. [****]Most of the victims were migrant laborers from the impoverished former Soviet republics of Central Asia, as many as 10 million of whom work in Russia and are a critical source of cheap labor in a country with a shrinking native workforce.

Police identified the man who was decapitated as Salahetdin Azizov, 20, a Tajik migrant employed at a fruit-and-vegetable warehouse. He and another Tajik worker were walking home Friday night when a group of 10 unidentified men attacked them, police said. Azizov was stabbed six times before he was beheaded. His co-worker escaped and remains hospitalized in critical condition.

The Tajik government has lodged a formal protest with the Kremlin over the case and complained that police are slow to investigate hate crimes against Tajik citizens, including 80 murders in Russia this year.

Azizov's head was discovered near a government building in Mozhaisky District, a neighborhood that has been a focus of nationalist outrage since the Oct. 1 rape and strangulation of a 15-year-old Russian girl there, allegedly by a city maintenance worker from Uzbekistan.

Nationalist groups have staged angry rallies in the district, demanding that the government "cleanse" the city of migrant workers, and racist graffiti has proliferated in the neighborhood. On Nov. 4, the national People's Unity Day holiday, a man from Turkmenistan was stabbed to death in the area, and many fearful migrants in the district have quit jobs and moved.

Police have questioned the leaders of two nationalist groups about the decapitation, but they denied any involvement. One of them, Alexander Belov of the Movement Against Illegal Immigration, told the Interfax news agency that he had never heard of the organization that asserted responsibility. But he said that government efforts to suppress groups such as his are causing "an increase in radical tendencies." [***]

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has condemned racist violence but also called for new limits on the number of work permits given to migrant laborers -- a position critics say is impractical and inflames xenophobic sentiment. Last month, a Kremlin-controlled youth group staged a rally calling on officials to close the borders to migrants so more jobs would be available for Russians during the economic crisis.

A police spokesman said detectives are examining "various theories" in Azizov's killing and had "no proof of the suggestion that skinheads might have been involved."

But Rykova said the authorities were denying the obvious. She warned that violence could get worse if the economic crisis intensifies and politicians continue to use xenophobic rhetoric. "We're sitting on a mine that can blow up at any moment," she said.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Bush Arrives in Iraq for a Final Visit

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/15/world/middleeast/15prexy.html
December 15, 2008
Bush Arrives in Iraq for a Final Visit
By STEVEN LEE MYERS [bush white house] [president Bush] [I sort of get it: if he didn’t personally say goodbye he’s have been criticized from caring little for –iraqis and caring only for testing presidential power, experiments in foisting democracy, and the like] [also buth has always relied on his person relations which tend to be far-less successful that he appears to believe] [also laying groundwork for his legacy should –ir look even semi-better thatn it was in 2003 [followup] [cross in govt] [****]
BAGHDAD — President Bush flew to Iraq on Sunday, a final trip to highlight the recently completed security agreement between Iraq and the United States.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/15/world/middleeast/15prexy.html
December 15, 2008
Bush Arrives in Iraq for a Final Visit
By STEVEN LEE MYERS [bush white house] [president Bush] [I sort of get it: if he didn’t personally say goodbye he’s have been criticized from caring little for –iraqis and caring only for testing presidential power, experiments in foisting democracy, and the like] [also buth has always relied on his person relations which tend to be far-less successful that he appears to believe] [also laying groundwork for his legacy should –ir look even semi-better thatn it was in 2003 [followup] [cross in govt] [****]
BAGHDAD — President Bush flew to Iraq on Sunday, a final trip to highlight the recently completed security agreement between Iraq and the United States.

Air Force One arrived in Baghdad at 4 p.m. after a 10-and-a-half-hour overnight flight from Andrews Air Force Base near Washington. It was his fourth visit to Iraq, a country that occupied the bulk of his presidency and will to a large extent define his legacy. [****]

On arriving, he met the two senior American officials, Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker and Gen. Ray Odierno on the tarmac. He is expected to meet with Iraqi leaders and American troops.

As with previous visits — in November 2003, June 2006 and September 2007 — preparations for the visit were cloaked in secrecy and carried out with ruse. The White House schedule for Sunday had Mr. Bush attending the “Christmas in Washington” performance at the National Building Museum in downtown Washington.

Mr. Bush instead left the White House by car on Saturday night, arriving at Andrews at 9 p.m. Air Force One remained inside its immaculate hangar until moments before taking off. A dozen journalists accompanying him were only told of the trip on Friday and allowed to tell only a superior and a spouse — and only in person.

Mr. Bush and his aides have touted the security agreement as a landmark in Iraq’s troubled history, one made possible by the dramatic drop in violence over the last year. They credit the large increase in American troops Mr. Bush ordered in 2007 for creating enough security to allow political progress to take root. [I hope they are right] [but it has many problems, not least of which is integrating Sunni minority back into –iraqi society] [***]

The new security agreements, which take effect on Jan. 1, replace the United Nations Security Council resolutions that authorized the presence of foreign troops in Iraq. Iraqi officials extracted significant concessions from the Bush administration over several months of hard bargaining, including a commitment to withdrawal all American forces by the end of 2011.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Woman Blinded by Spurned Man Invokes Islamic Retribution

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121302147.html
Woman Blinded by Spurned Man Invokes Islamic Retribution
By Thomas Erdbrink
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, December 14, 2008; A01 [iran] [domestic politics intersect foreign policy] [I suppose this can be filed under the Islamic Republic’s grappling with modernity and even democratic governance] [I’m sure the various factions have their favorites but I have no clue] [use psci469b?] [*******]
TEHRAN -- Ameneh Bahrami once enjoyed photography and mountain vistas. Her work for a medical equipment company gave her financial independence. Several men had

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121302147.html
Woman Blinded by Spurned Man Invokes Islamic Retribution
By Thomas Erdbrink
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, December 14, 2008; A01 [iran] [domestic politics intersect foreign policy] [I suppose this can be filed under the Islamic Republic’s grappling with modernity and even democratic governance] [I’m sure the various factions have their favorites but I have no clue] [use psci469b?] [*******]
TEHRAN -- Ameneh Bahrami once enjoyed photography and mountain vistas. Her work for a medical equipment company gave her financial independence. Several men had asked for her hand in marriage, but the hazel-eyed electrical technician had refused them all. "I wanted to get married, but only to the man I really loved," she said. [***]

Four years ago, a spurned suitor poured a bucket of sulfuric acid over her head, leaving her blind and disfigured. [why does this happen in Islamic socieities at least in that region?] [thugs, brigands, and jihadis pour acid on school girls’ faces to keep them from going to school] [why does not some important clerice issue a fatwa in which such actions are forbirdden?] [surely, society does not quietly approve or such medieval acts] [****]

Late last month, an Iranian court ordered that five drops of the same chemical be placed in each of her attacker's eyes, acceding to Bahrami's demand that he be punished according to a principle in Islamic jurisprudence that allows a victim to seek retribution for a crime. The sentence has not yet been carried out. [***]

The implementation of corporal punishments allowed under Islamic law, including lashing, amputation and stoning, has often provoked controversy in Iran, where many people have decried such sentences as barbaric. This case is different.

Tehran journalist Asieh Amini, who writes about human rights and opposes the sentence, said protest has been muted because people have been moved by Bahrami's story. "It's hard not to get emotional over what has happened to her," Amini said.

Bahrami, 31, said she has fought long and hard to obtain what she views as justice.

"At an age at which I should be putting on a wedding dress, I am asking for someone's eyes to be dripped with acid," she said in a recent interview, as rain poured against the windows of her parents' small apartment in a lower-middle-class neighborhood of Tehran. "I am doing that because I don't want this to happen to any other women."

Some officials also said the punishment would be a deterrent.

"If propaganda is carried out on how acid attackers are punished, it will prevent such crimes in the future," Mahmoud Salarkia, deputy attorney general of Tehran, told reporters after the court issued its ruling.

There are no statistics on the number of acid attacks against women in Iran. "This is an extreme case of social violence, but crimes like spouse and 'honor' killings are clearly on the rise in Iran," Amini said. "These crimes are violent reactions to sexual limitations in this country."[****]

In public life, men and women are often segregated in Iran, and sex before marriage is illegal.

Amini said she doubted that the sentence against Bahrami's attacker would reverse the trend. "Social violence will not be cured with more violence," she said.

In 2002, Bahrami was a 24-year-old electronics student at a university in Tehran. She and her friends felt sorry for a sometimes bedraggled younger student named Majid Movahedi, so they collected sweaters and pants and asked a university staff member to pass them on to him.

"Ameneh was always nice to everybody," said her mother, Shahin, carefully lifting a cup of tea to her daughter's lips.

Bahrami left a deep impression on Movahedi, even though the two had never spoken.

"He was absolutely crazy about her," said Aziz Movahedi, Majid's father. "At periods he would lock himself in his room, saying he only wanted to marry her."

Bahrami didn't share his feelings. "I remember him as a strange boy with an obsessive stare," she said. In 2003, Movahedi's mother called Bahrami's parents to propose a marriage. "I politely declined," Bahrami said.

Movahedi, refusing to be turned down, began waiting outside her workplace and stopping her in the street, crying that he would kill himself if she didn't marry him.

Police said they could not act before a crime had been committed, so Bahrami decided that she needed to act. "Things were out of control. I was facing an unbalanced person," Bahrami said.

On Oct. 31, 2004, she approached Movahedi as he waited near her office. "I made up a story that I had gotten engaged and was about to marry. 'Continue with your life,' I told him. 'There is absolutely no hope for us.' "

As she returned to her office, he vowed to kill her.

Three days later, on a cold, clear autumn afternoon, Bahrami was walking home through one of Tehran's busy city parks when someone tapped her on the shoulder. As she turned around, a burning fluid splashed onto her face.

"It felt like my head was stuck in a bowl of boiling water," Bahrami said. "I bent forward to allow the stuff to drip off my face, but the pain was intolerable. I fell on the pavement, screaming for help."

In the interview, Bahrami recounted these events calmly. Her mother, sitting next to her on a couch, held her daughter tightly.

Bahrami remembers a crowd gathering around her. "A bystander came with a jerry can of water. I splashed it on my face, but that only caused the acid to run down my arms onto my body."

Someone picked her up and took her to a nearby hospital. The doctors ordered a worker to hose her down in the hospital's courtyard.

"They didn't take her clothes off or wash her eyes properly. That could have softened the high degree of burns," said Farid Karimian, an Iranian ophthalmologist who began treating Bahrami a couple of days later. "She was a real mess."

Movahedi turned himself in to police two weeks after the attack. During a preliminary hearing, he acknowledged attacking Bahrami and was imprisoned to await trial.

"What was my sin? To want to choose freely in marriage?" Bahrami said. "What was he thinking?"

Bahrami was transferred to a burn unit at another hospital, where she had several surgeries over the next six months.

"All the time I had to sleep standing up. I was completely blinded," she said.

After the operations, doctors referred her to an eye clinic in Barcelona for a last attempt to restore some of her vision.

But Bahrami had no insurance. Iran's president at the time, Mohammad Khatami, who had heard Bahrami's story through her attorney, personally paid a large portion of her bills and promised that the government would make the remaining payments.

" 'You don't worry about anything; we'll take care of you,' they said," Bahrami recalled.

Doctors at Barcelona's Instituto de Microcirugia Ocular, an eye surgery hospital, were impressed by Bahrami. "She was an amazing patient. So brave. She came to a foreign country, blind, without knowing the language. She only wanted one thing: to be able to see again," said Ramón Medel, an eyelid surgeon at the hospital.

Medel and other doctors focused on Bahrami's right eye, which was less damaged.

"After some operations, she could at least see some shadows," Medel said. "But we needed to do more work on her."

In August 2005, almost a year after the attack, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became president, and the payments for Bahrami's medical costs and her Barcelona apartment suddenly stopped.

Iran's ambassador to Spain at the time, Morteza Alviri, said he had nightmares after meeting Bahrami. "I felt so sorry for her. I tried to do what I could," he said. But when Ahmadinejad changed several ambassadors, supporters of the previous government, Alviri was the first to leave. "I don't know what happened to Ameneh after that," he said.

Ahmadinejad's media adviser, Medhi Kalhor, said he could guess why the payments were cut off. "Did Mr. Khatami throw the acid? No. He shouldn't have paid for her out of the people's pocket," he said. "If Bahrami was an old man with an ingrown toenail, no one would speak of it. . . . There are so many people who need our help. We cannot just pay for everybody."

Bahrami eventually was evicted from her apartment, and members of a Spanish organization took her to a homeless shelter in Barcelona.

"After some days, I understood that I was surrounded by drug addicts, drunkards and prostitutes," she said. "I cried so hard -- what had I done to deserve all this?"

"It was a horrible, crazy place, where they had put her," said Amir Sabouri, president of the Iranian Friendship Association of New York, a charity that helps Iranians worldwide. Sabouri traveled to Spain to help Bahrami after hearing about her plight.

Soon after, Bahrami felt fluid dripping from her right eye.

"Unfortunately her eye, which was very weak, gave out," Medel said. "She must have caught some bacteria somewhere."

Bahrami returned to Tehran in June.

With little left to lose, Bahrami took the unusual step of asking the court for qisas, or eye-for-an-eye retribution as allowed under Islamic law.

Courts usually order families of the accused to pay "blood money" for the crimes. But Bahrami insisted on the punishment. She had several meetings with the head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, who tends to favor less strict interpretations of Islamic law.

"Shahroudi really pressed me to demand blood money instead of retribution. He explained that such a sentence would cause lots of bad publicity for Iran. But I refused," she said.

The judiciary did not respond to a request for an interview.

More than two weeks ago, Movahedi was led into court by two policemen. He showed no remorse when the court ruled on the case. When the judge asked whether he was ready for his punishment, Movahedi said that he still loved Bahrami but that if she asked for his eyes to be taken out, he would seek the same punishment for her.

"They must also completely empty out her eyes, since I'm not sure that she cannot secretly see," he said. "The newspapers have made this a huge case, but I haven't done anything bad."

Movahedi was sentenced to five drips of sulfuric acid in each eye. His father said he was "incredibly sorry" for what had happened. "If Ameneh is really blind, the verdict against my son must be implemented," he said.

Under Iranian law, a convict has 20 days to appeal the verdict. If Movahedi fails to do so, the punishment will be carried out on a date decided by the judiciary.

Medel, the doctor in Barcelona, said he was shocked to hear that his former patient had asked for another person's eyes to be taken out.

"I heard about that court case on the radio here in Spain," he said. "I never linked it to Ameneh. It's a harsh sentence, but she really had to go through a lot. I don't know what I would have done if she had been my daughter."
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Britain Promises More Anti-Terror Aid to Pakistan

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2008/12/14/world/AP-AS-South-Asia-Brown-Visit.html
December 14, 2008
Britain Promises More Anti-Terror Aid to Pakistan
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 8:30 a.m. ET [UK] PM Brown] [committed to more aid for Pakistan and AfPak] [good sign as it may shame other NATO allies into ponying up] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007 then amped up considerably 1n 200]8 [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [awaiting Patraeus’ counterinsurgency program?]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) -- British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Sunday pledged

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2008/12/14/world/AP-AS-South-Asia-Brown-Visit.html
December 14, 2008
Britain Promises More Anti-Terror Aid to Pakistan
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 8:30 a.m. ET [UK] PM Brown] [committed to more aid for Pakistan and AfPak] [good sign as it may shame other NATO allies into ponying up] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007 then amped up considerably 1n 200]8 [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [awaiting Patraeus’ counterinsurgency program?]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) -- British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Sunday pledged more technical support and funding to help Pakistan and India battle terrorism in the wake of the attacks in Mumbai that killed more than 160 people.

Brown made the offers as he made whirlwind visits to both nations' capitals and tried to calm tensions following the assaults, which India has blamed on a Pakistani-based Islamist group.

Brown urged the nuclear-armed rivals to cooperate to peacefully resolve the crisis, which the U.S. fears could divert Pakistan's attention away from battling al-Qaida and Taliban militants along its border with Afghanistan. [***]

In Pakistan, Brown met with President Asif Ali Zardari and promised the Muslim nation new bomb-scanning technology, forensic assistance, help improving airport security and other support. He also announced a $9 million program to help fight the causes of extremism and strengthen democracy, including trying to reach out to and educate Pakistani youth to avoid radicalization. [****]

''We will continue to expand our counterterrorism assistance program with Pakistan, and it will be, more than ever, the most comprehensive anti-terrorism program Britain has signed with any country,'' Brown said at a joint news conference with Zardari.

Brown also said more would be done with both India and Pakistan to share police data on terror suspects and groups.

For Britain, which has a large South Asian population and colonial-era links to the region, the subject is of vital concern. Three-quarters of the most serious terror plots investigated by British authorities have links to al-Qaida in Pakistan, Brown said. [***]

The investigations included the trans-Atlantic airliner plot, where a group of men were accused of trying to blow up several airliners. [disrupted August 10,2006] [***]Three of four British-born men who carried out the London suicide bombings that killed 52 commuters in 2005 [7-7-05 and failed plot 2 weeks later] [***] had family ties to Pakistan. British citizens were also among the dead in the Mumbai attacks.

‘’All of us suffer when terrorists are active and are able to impose their will,’’ Brown said.

Brown said he asked Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during breakfast Sunday if he would allow British authorities to question the only known surviving gunman in the Mumbai massacre, and asked Zadari for similar cooperation with arrested suspects.

India has blamed the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba Islamic group for the attacks, an assertion Brown echoed.

‘’We also know that the group responsible (for the Mumbai attacks) is LET, and they have a great deal to answer for,’’ Brown said.

According to India, the 10 gunmen – nine of whom were killed – were from Pakistan, as were the handlers, masterminds, weapons, training camps and financing.

Pakistan has arrested some suspected plotters and shut offices of a charity allegedly linked to Lashkar, but it is pressing India to provide evidence to aid in prosecutions.

India now finds itself in the awkward position of potentially having to investigate terrorist attacks hand-in-hand with its longtime nemesis. The two countries have fought three wars against each other since independence from Britain in 1947.

Zardari said Pakistan wants peaceful relations and views the post-Mumbai scenario as ‘’an opportunity to cooperate with India, to take the relationship with India to another level.’’

Adding to tensions, Pakistani officials said Indian aircraft violated Pakistan’s airspace twice Saturday – over the eastern city of Lahore and in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.

India denied the claims, and Pakistani officials tried to downplay the matter Sunday. Zardari said the incursions were ‘’technical’’ and that the media were ‘’trying to sell bad news.’’ [***]

Two of the wars the sides have fought have been over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, whose status has emerged as a recurrent theme in the radicalization of young British Muslims. Despite a peace process that began in 2004, tensions remain high between India and Pakistan. [***]

Brown arrived in India following a surprise visit Saturday to Afghanistan, where he met with British soldiers and hinted Britain would provide more troops, saying Europe's streets were safer because of the fight in Afghanistan.

While with Zardari, Brown said he also raised the subject of insecurity along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan.

Al-Qaida and Taliban militants have found safe havens on the Pakistani side, to the chagrin of U.S. and NATO leaders who fear the insurgents are using those sanctuaries to plot attacks on their troops in Afghanistan. [***]

Improving the border security ''is in all our interest'' Brown said, because of the ''people practicing terror who are moving with ease.''

Brown is leading a review of the U.K.'s strategy in Afghanistan, and an announcement on troop deployment is expected in Parliament this week. American leaders say thousands of incoming U.S. troops will be sent to reinforce British forces in the restive south.
Britain has some 8,200 troops in Afghanistan. More than 130 British soldiers have died there since 2001. [some 600-plus Americans] [****]
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press

Britain Reports Boy Conducted Suicide Attack in Afghanistan

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/asia/14afghan.html
December 14, 2008
Britain Reports Boy Conducted Suicide Attack in Afghanistan
By ADAM B. ELLICK [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [awaiting Patraeus’ counterinsurgency program?] [meanwhile jihadis show no floor on level of depravity—using small boys as suicide bombers] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — Military officials said Saturday that an attack on British marines in southern Afghanistan was carried out by a boy who was carrying a bomb hidden under newspapers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/asia/14afghan.html
December 14, 2008
Britain Reports Boy Conducted Suicide Attack in Afghanistan
By ADAM B. ELLICK [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [awaiting Patraeus’ counterinsurgency program?] [meanwhile jihadis show no floor on level of depravity—using small boys as suicide bombers] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — Military officials said Saturday that an attack on British marines in southern Afghanistan was carried out by a boy who was carrying a bomb hidden under newspapers.

The attack, which killed three British marines in Helmand Province on Friday morning, was condemned by Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain in a surprise visit to the province on Saturday. He accused the Taliban of “cowardly behavior” for using a child as a suicide bomber. [****]

A coalition spokesman, Capt. Mark Windsor of the British Navy, said the bomber was believed to be about 13.

A Taliban spokesman, Qari Yousef, denied that the bomber was a child and said that the Taliban had enough adult fighters willing to sacrifice their lives, according to CNN.

The Taliban have previously recruited students from religious schools to carry out suicide attacks in Afghanistan.

In October, Afghan intelligence officers arrested two teenage boys, including one from Helmand Province, who were suspected of planning a suicide attack against foreign soldiers.

Dawoud Ahmadi, spokesman for the governor of Helmand Province, said it was “not impossible to believe” that the attack on Friday was carried out by a child, but he refrained from drawing any conclusions.

“We don’t know if this kid was the attacker or the one killed in the explosion,” he said.

In June 2007, President Hamid Karzai pardoned a 14-year-old Pakistani who was caught wearing a suicide bomb vest on his way to assassinate a provincial governor. The boy, from South Waziristan, said he was taught how to drive and shown combat training videos at his school. [***]

The Britons were killed in the Sangin District, where they were on a patrol. Early Sunday a roadside bomb killed three Canadian soldiers and wounded another. A British soldier was also killed in a separate attack in Helmand Province on Friday.

Tensions between Mr. Karzai and Western leaders have increased because of recent civilian casualties. On Friday, American soldiers opened fire on a civilian bus in central Afghanistan, killing four passengers after the driver refused to stop, military officials said.

Coalition forces are also investigating events surrounding an ambush of a patrol on Wednesday, another clash that is likely to elevate tensions with civilians. Unconfirmed reports indicate that when troops returned fire, three civilians — two men and a woman — were killed.
Abdul Waheed Wafa contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Pakistan Cites Airspace Breach

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121301311.html
Pakistan Cites Airspace Breach
Minister Says 'Our Forces Are Alert' After Indian Incursions
By Candace Rondeaux
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, December 14, 2008; A18 [Pakistan-India relations] [following the September 26 (60-hour siege) in Mumbai] [unsurprisingly, tensions continue to rachet up despite 3rd parties (notbably US) calling for cooler heads to prevail] [Pakistan has seemingly gone farther than in past now under Zardari govt] [will military stay on sidelines] [followup] [brinkmanship with jet fighters approaching the other’s sovereign air space needlessly provocative] [could it be Shingh who has been getting an earful from many corners for incompetent measures, is trying to rally Indians behind the flag?]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Dec. 14 -- Pakistan said Indian fighter jets crossed into its

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121301311.html
Pakistan Cites Airspace Breach
Minister Says 'Our Forces Are Alert' After Indian Incursions
By Candace Rondeaux
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, December 14, 2008; A18 [Pakistan-India relations] [following the September 26 (60-hour siege) in Mumbai] [unsurprisingly, tensions continue to rachet up despite 3rd parties (notbably US) calling for cooler heads to prevail] [Pakistan has seemingly gone farther than in past now under Zardari govt] [will military stay on sidelines] [followup] [brinkmanship with jet fighters approaching the other’s sovereign air space needlessly provocative] [could it be Shingh who has been getting an earful from many corners for incompetent measures, is trying to rally Indians behind the flag?]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Dec. 14 -- Pakistan said Indian fighter jets crossed into its airspace Saturday, prompting Pakistan to place its air force on high alert two weeks after India vowed to take strong action against its nuclear-armed rival in the wake of deadly attacks in Mumbai. [****]

Pakistan's minister of information, Sherry Rehman, said the Indian jets had "inadvertently" strayed into Pakistani airspace. Rehman said that Pakistani officials had been in contact with the Indian air force and that it had confirmed the breach. [***]

"The Pakistani air force has made a routine response, and our forces are alert," Rehman said. "There is no need for undue alarm."

Commodore Humayun Viqar, a spokesman for Pakistan's air force, said Pakistani fighter jets were scrambled in response to the breaches near the disputed Himalayan territory of Kashmir and the eastern Pakistani city of Lahore. [***] Viqar said Pakistan's air force would remain on alert to "thwart any aggression" from India.

Pakistani air force officials said the incidents appeared to have occurred around midday Saturday near two areas where the militant group Lashkar-i-Taiba is thought to have planned the attacks that killed more than 170 people and injured at least 230 [****]in Mumbai last month.

A spokesman for the Indian air force, Wing Cmdr. Mahesh Upasni, said Sunday that the "Indian air force has denied that there's been any airspace violation in its path."

Pakistan and India have fought three wars since the British partitioned the subcontinent in 1947.

Enmity between the two countries deepened after India conducted its first nuclear bomb test in 1974. In May 1998, India conducted underground nuclear tests near its border with Pakistan. In response, Pakistan conducted six tests that year in the southern province of Baluchistan and tested its first long-range missile.

The escalation in the arms race drew sharp condemnation from the West, prompting the United States to cut off billions in aid under stiff sanctions against both countries.

India and Pakistan began a peace process in 2004, but tensions have remained high since July, when a suicide bomber targeted the Indian Embassy in Kabul, killing 58 people, including the Indian defense attache to Afghanistan. U.S. intelligence officials later said there was evidence that Pakistan's Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, had sponsored the attack. [****]Pakistan's government denied involvement.

After the Mumbai attacks, India accused the ISI of aiding and training the 10 alleged Lashkar gunmen who struck two luxury hotels, a train station, a Jewish cultural center and other sites in a three-day siege of India's financial capital. Indian officials have said that interrogations of the gunman captured during the attacks have revealed links between the gunmen and Lashkar operational commanders based in Pakistan. Pakistan has repeatedly denied any ISI involvement in the attacks.

India demanded that Pakistan arrest and extradite at least three top Lashkar leaders, including Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, one of the alleged masterminds of the Mumbai attacks, and Lashkar founder Hafiz Sayeed. Lakhvi was arrested in a raid last Sunday on a camp run by Jamaat-ud-Dawa, a group long said to be a front for Lashkar.

On Thursday, Pakistani authorities placed Sayeed under house arrest after closing down dozens of Jamaat-ud-Dawa offices. [***]
Correspondent Emily Wax in New Delhi contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

December 13, 2008

Somalia: No Volunteers for Coalition

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/africa/13briefs-NOVOLUNTEERS_BRF.html
December 13, 2008
World Briefing | Africa
Somalia: No Volunteers for Coalition
By REUTERS [Bush white house] [bush white house] [NSC deputies level most likely] [perhaps some principals’ attention] [piracy in Somalia and environs] [increasing problem] [a murky plan to attack them from the landward side?] [a mess that’s become more messy under the Bush team] [it would have anyway but acts such as inviting Ethiopia into the mix had failure etched on them] [Somalia is a failed state with all that implies] [anarchy writ large] [use psci469b] [***]
The United Nations has been unable to put togeter a multinational military force to

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/africa/13briefs-NOVOLUNTEERS_BRF.html
December 13, 2008
World Briefing | Africa
Somalia: No Volunteers for Coalition
By REUTERS [Bush white house] [bush white house] [NSC deputies level most likely] [perhaps some principals’ attention] [piracy in Somalia and environs] [increasing problem] [a murky plan to attack them from the landward side?] [a mess that’s become more messy under the Bush team] [it would have anyway but acts such as inviting Ethiopia into the mix had failure etched on them] [Somalia is a failed state with all that implies] [anarchy writ large] [use psci469b] [***]
The United Nations has been unable to put togeter a multinational military force to stabilize Somalia, which diplomats said means the lawless country might be left to fend for itself. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has said that Somalia’s problems are beyond the capabilities of United Nations peacekeepers and will require a force of about 10,000 troops “with full capability to defend itself against hostile threats.” United Nations officials have been lobbying countries to join an international coalition, but so far, diplomats on the Security Council say, none have been willing.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

An Old Rage to Quell

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/12/AR2008121203270.html
An Old Rage to Quell
By David Ignatius
Sunday, December 14, 2008; B07 [oped] [columnist] [why Obama might be uniquely positioned to return America’s image and respect] [America has become the old colonial Europe hated by the world’s masses] [let’s hope that toi change soon] [****]
Barack Obama wrote in "Dreams From My Father" of his days as a student at Occidental College, groping for his political identity: "We smoked cigarettes and wore leather jackets. At night, in the dorms, we discussed neocolonialism, Frantz Fanon, Eurocentrism and patriarchy."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/12/AR2008121203270.html
An Old Rage to Quell
By David Ignatius
Sunday, December 14, 2008; B07 [oped] [columnist] [why Obama might be uniquely positioned to return America’s image and respect] [America has become the old colonial Europe hated by the world’s masses] [let’s hope that toi change soon] [****]
Barack Obama wrote in "Dreams From My Father" of his days as a student at Occidental College, groping for his political identity: "We smoked cigarettes and wore leather jackets. At night, in the dorms, we discussed neocolonialism, Frantz Fanon, Eurocentrism and patriarchy."

That's one of the passages from his autobiography that has fueled conspiracy theories among right-wing bloggers. They speak of Obama as if he's a tool of Third World revolutionaries who have somehow been preserved in dry ice since the 1960s. But that's silly. A man who plans to retain Bob Gates as secretary of defense and install a retired Marine four-star general as his national security adviser is not a creature of adolescent rebellion.

But here's a contrarian thought: Before Obama assumes the burdens of commander in chief, maybe he should dust off that copy of Fanon's "The Wretched of the Earth" and give the radical theorist another look. In doing so, he would remind himself of the special opportunity he will have as president to speak to a world that still suffers from the anti-Western fury that Fanon described in 1961.

Obama symbolizes a change that truly is epochal. The French newspaper Le Monde greeted his election with the headline: "Happy New Century!" As the first African American president, he is sometimes described as post-racial. I don't know about that, but as the son of a Kenyan intellectual born when that country was a British colony, Obama has another distinction that is rarely noted: He is a post-colonial man.

Obama is a living rebuttal to Fanon's rage of the powerless. The son of a Luo tribesman, whose father was born on the shores of Lake Victoria and schooled by British colonial administrators, is about to assume the most powerful job on Earth. It is Fanon's world turned upside down.

What made Fanon a guru for the left was his focus on the anger and alienation of the formerly colonized people of Africa. Born in the French colony of Martinique, he studied psychiatry in France and practiced in Algeria during that country's bloody revolt against French colonialism. Much of "The Wretched of the Earth" is empty vitriol extolling violence as a path to liberation, but Fanon includes case studies of patients he treated in Algeria -- including victims who were tortured by the French army. "For many years to come, we shall be bandaging the countless and sometimes indelible wounds inflicted on our people by the colonialist onslaught," Fanon wrote.

We are long past the era of decolonization that Fanon was describing. What's tragic is that in many parts of the world, the United States -- formed in the first great anti-colonial revolution -- has come to be seen as the heir to European imperialism. And we are hated and feared, just as were the British, French, Belgians and the rest. This rage strikes many Americans as incomprehensible ("Why do they hate us?"), but international polls document that anti-Americanism has grown to worrying levels. [***]

The rise of militant Islam has added a dangerous trigger. [***]In Fanon's time, the revolutionary movements were secular and nationalist, and they were encumbered by their heavy-handed Soviet and Chinese sponsors. But at least the revolutionaries talked about creating a modern world. Today's Islamic radicals often seem to despise modernism itself. They exhibit the same rage that Fanon diagnosed and the same desire to purify themselves through acts of violence. But there is also a hunger for respect and a desire to communicate.

This is Obama's challenge: Can he show this angry world a different American face? Can he connect with what Carter administration national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski has called the "global political awakening" -- and make the United States an ally of this movement for change, rather than its enemy? That's his biggest opportunity as president. [****]

Obama's strong national security team shows that he's more a man of the center than many had imagined. These people understand the uses of military force. But to speak convincingly to a world that is wary of American power, Obama should remember his liberal roots, too. He will be a more persuasive advocate for change if he recalls that young man in the leather jacket spouting off about Fanon.

The challenge of the 21st century is to end the post-colonial age at last and to heal its psychic and political wounds. Obama is uniquely the man who can do it, if he keeps faith with his own story. [****]
The writer is co-host of PostGlobal, an online discussion of international issues. His e-mail address is davidignatius@washpost.com.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

An Old Rage to Quell

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/12/AR2008121203270.html
An Old Rage to Quell
By David Ignatius
Sunday, December 14, 2008; B07 [oped] [columnist] [why Obama might be uniquely positioned to return America’s image and respect] [America has become the old colonial Europe hated by the world’s masses] [let’s hope that toi change soon] [****]
Barack Obama wrote in "Dreams From My Father" of his days as a student at Occidental College, groping for his political identity: "We smoked cigarettes and wore leather jackets. At night, in the dorms, we discussed neocolonialism, Frantz Fanon, Eurocentrism and patriarchy."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/12/AR2008121203270.html
An Old Rage to Quell
By David Ignatius
Sunday, December 14, 2008; B07 [oped] [columnist] [why Obama might be uniquely positioned to return America’s image and respect] [America has become the old colonial Europe hated by the world’s masses] [let’s hope that toi change soon] [****]
Barack Obama wrote in "Dreams From My Father" of his days as a student at Occidental College, groping for his political identity: "We smoked cigarettes and wore leather jackets. At night, in the dorms, we discussed neocolonialism, Frantz Fanon, Eurocentrism and patriarchy."

That's one of the passages from his autobiography that has fueled conspiracy theories among right-wing bloggers. They speak of Obama as if he's a tool of Third World revolutionaries who have somehow been preserved in dry ice since the 1960s. But that's silly. A man who plans to retain Bob Gates as secretary of defense and install a retired Marine four-star general as his national security adviser is not a creature of adolescent rebellion.

But here's a contrarian thought: Before Obama assumes the burdens of commander in chief, maybe he should dust off that copy of Fanon's "The Wretched of the Earth" and give the radical theorist another look. In doing so, he would remind himself of the special opportunity he will have as president to speak to a world that still suffers from the anti-Western fury that Fanon described in 1961.

Obama symbolizes a change that truly is epochal. The French newspaper Le Monde greeted his election with the headline: "Happy New Century!" As the first African American president, he is sometimes described as post-racial. I don't know about that, but as the son of a Kenyan intellectual born when that country was a British colony, Obama has another distinction that is rarely noted: He is a post-colonial man.

Obama is a living rebuttal to Fanon's rage of the powerless. The son of a Luo tribesman, whose father was born on the shores of Lake Victoria and schooled by British colonial administrators, is about to assume the most powerful job on Earth. It is Fanon's world turned upside down.

What made Fanon a guru for the left was his focus on the anger and alienation of the formerly colonized people of Africa. Born in the French colony of Martinique, he studied psychiatry in France and practiced in Algeria during that country's bloody revolt against French colonialism. Much of "The Wretched of the Earth" is empty vitriol extolling violence as a path to liberation, but Fanon includes case studies of patients he treated in Algeria -- including victims who were tortured by the French army. "For many years to come, we shall be bandaging the countless and sometimes indelible wounds inflicted on our people by the colonialist onslaught," Fanon wrote.

We are long past the era of decolonization that Fanon was describing. What's tragic is that in many parts of the world, the United States -- formed in the first great anti-colonial revolution -- has come to be seen as the heir to European imperialism. And we are hated and feared, just as were the British, French, Belgians and the rest. This rage strikes many Americans as incomprehensible ("Why do they hate us?"), but international polls document that anti-Americanism has grown to worrying levels. [***]

The rise of militant Islam has added a dangerous trigger. [***]In Fanon's time, the revolutionary movements were secular and nationalist, and they were encumbered by their heavy-handed Soviet and Chinese sponsors. But at least the revolutionaries talked about creating a modern world. Today's Islamic radicals often seem to despise modernism itself. They exhibit the same rage that Fanon diagnosed and the same desire to purify themselves through acts of violence. But there is also a hunger for respect and a desire to communicate.

This is Obama's challenge: Can he show this angry world a different American face? Can he connect with what Carter administration national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski has called the "global political awakening" -- and make the United States an ally of this movement for change, rather than its enemy? That's his biggest opportunity as president. [****]

Obama's strong national security team shows that he's more a man of the center than many had imagined. These people understand the uses of military force. But to speak convincingly to a world that is wary of American power, Obama should remember his liberal roots, too. He will be a more persuasive advocate for change if he recalls that young man in the leather jacket spouting off about Fanon.

The challenge of the 21st century is to end the post-colonial age at last and to heal its psychic and political wounds. Obama is uniquely the man who can do it, if he keeps faith with his own story. [****]
The writer is co-host of PostGlobal, an online discussion of international issues. His e-mail address is davidignatius@washpost.com.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Dealing With Revisionist Russia

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/12/AR2008121203333.html
Dealing With Revisionist Russia
By Ronald D. Asmus
Saturday, December 13, 2008; A15 [oped] [a newly reassertive Russia and why the US needs to begin to listen and respond thoughtfully] [use ir text] [****]
Among the foreign policy challenges facing President-elect Barack Obama is the need for a new strategy toward Russia. Moscow is a partner and competitor: We need to work with the Russians on issues such as Iran and counterterrorism, but Moscow today is also a nationalistic revisionist power bent on rolling back Western values and influence on its borders with Europe. [***] Russia is seeking major changes to the

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/12/AR2008121203333.html
Dealing With Revisionist Russia
By Ronald D. Asmus
Saturday, December 13, 2008; A15 [oped] [a newly reassertive Russia and why the US needs to begin to listen and respond thoughtfully] [use ir text] [****]
Among the foreign policy challenges facing President-elect Barack Obama is the need for a new strategy toward Russia. Moscow is a partner and competitor: We need to work with the Russians on issues such as Iran and counterterrorism, but Moscow today is also a nationalistic revisionist power bent on rolling back Western values and influence on its borders with Europe. [***] Russia is seeking major changes to the ground rules of European security, a desire underscored recently when Moscow pressed the West to agree to a new European security charter proposed by President Dmitry Medvedev. [***]

This initiative has hardly been noticed in Washington, but it is time to pay attention. The August war in Georgia shattered the assumption that the continent was somehow fixed in place or that war in wider Europe was no longer possible. How we and our allies respond to this initiative can help determine whether we retain the kind of European security order that expands peace and stability or whether we sow the seeds for further instability and conflict. [****]

It is key to have clear goals before entering the kind of negotiation that is under discussion. Russia knows what it wants. When it comes to Moscow's recent proposal, we don't. Moscow sees the European security system as too NATO-centric and favorable to the United States. It believes the West exploited its weakness in the 1990s to impose an unfair set of rules. [well, yes] [that’s basically inarguable] [***]It wants out of commitments to democratic values and human rights that it signed in the early 1990s. It wants to emasculate the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and prevent it from holding Moscow-friendly autocracies to democratic norms. Russian leaders openly hope to divide the United States from Europe; [***]to reduce the West's ability to protect Western values in the domestic affairs of Russia and its allies; to prevent further NATO enlargement; and to relegitimize Russia's sphere of influence over neighboring countries. [***]

The gap between Western and Russian values and our readings of recent history is greater today than at any time since communism's collapse. First, the United States never tried to humiliate Russia in the 1990s. To the contrary, the United States and its allies then put more time, money and effort into assisting Russia than had been provided since allied support for the Soviet Union during World War II. As to NATO enlargement, thank God we enlarged to Central and Eastern Europe when we did. Imagine the instability Europe would face today if that hadn't happened. Russia's western border is arguably its only stable border. And since the first new members entered a decade ago, NATO has not conducted a single military exercise directed against Moscow. So let's not feel guilty about past policy or buy into legends that Russia is spinning about mythical Western threats. [but you’re missing the point] [we train with them] [NATO members and would-be members encircle Russia] [this is not some odd behavior unpredictable from Russia. Russia’s doing what Russia has always done when it perceived itself as enciricled] [****]

But here lies the crux of the problem. What we view as a success story to be built on, Moscow views as a system tilted against it. [***]What Moscow sees as Western interference reflects our commitment to the kind of values and norms we believe constitute the best foundation for peace and stability. Russia never fully opted into our efforts to create a new system of cooperative security that would abolish spheres of influence and expand security across Europe -- including for Russia. It wants to dismantle those rules and return to spheres of influence -- concepts we fear in part because we believe they helped cause so much war and destruction in the past. [to suggest that was policy—that consensus in the West between American and its Euro partners sought that—is a fiction] [when did NATO commit to a new security system with no spheres of influence?] [what year did that discussion take place?] [NATO does not know what it’s for and what it’s against] [and unless and until its members can articulate what NATO’s future mission is, adding new members willy nilly is crazy] [***]

It would nonetheless be a mistake to simply say nyet to Russia's initiative. The best way to deal with this revisionist Russia is to engage it. Obama has rightly emphasized a return to diplomacy. We want to encourage Russia to open itself to the outside world. But we need to be clear on what we seek and what we want to avoid; otherwise, we will find ourselves mired in a marathon negotiation simply playing defense as Moscow seeks to water down past commitments it now finds inconvenient. [****]As one of the U.S. negotiators the last time we went through such an exercise with Moscow, I can testify to Russian tenacity -- and that was under Boris Yeltsin. Today's Russia will be tougher sledding.

Instead, we should try to turn this Russian initiative around and use it to strengthen our commitment to the principles of a democratic peace and to refute any return to archaic spheres of influence. [are you seriously prepared to renounce the Monroe Doctrine or just European spheres?] [****] We should seek to strengthen the independence of institutions such as the OSCE and their ability to monitor a country's behavior and to hold it to the norms it has accepted. We want the international community to have the ability to deal with conflicts earlier and more effectively to prevent them from exploding. This is one forum where an Obama administration can implement its commitment to reviving arms control. In short, let's play offense as opposed to just trying to hold the line against Moscow. Under Obama, the United States could again enjoy the popularity and multilateral credentials to lead such an effort.

Peace and security in Europe are critical with the United States facing national security challenges on so many other fronts. What appears to be another boring Euro-marathon negotiation is quite important. The norms we set in Europe often serve as a model for other areas. This will test the Obama administration's ability to reunite NATO and secure a common Western view on the role that democratic values and principles should play in a new Western strategy. It will also test our ability to resurrect U.S. leadership and soft power and bring the West back together -- or watch its further decline.

The writer, a deputy assistant secretary of state in the Clinton administration, is executive director of the Brussels-based Transatlantic Center and is responsible for strategic planning at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The views expressed here are his own.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Nowhere to Hide

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/opinion/13sat3.html
December 13, 2008
Editorial
Nowhere to Hide
[editorial] [Monster Mugabe’s Zimbabwe] [one of the planet’s worse hells]
Here are the fruits of Robert Mugabe’s rule of horrors: political chaos, economic collapse, desperate food shortages, violence and now a fierce cholera epidemic. Eight-hundred people have died. More than 16,000 are infected, and there is no end in sight.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/opinion/13sat3.html
December 13, 2008
Editorial
Nowhere to Hide
[editorial] [Monster Mugabe’s Zimbabwe] [one of the planet’s worse hells]
Here are the fruits of Robert Mugabe’s rule of horrors: political chaos, economic collapse, desperate food shortages, violence and now a fierce cholera epidemic. Eight-hundred people have died. More than 16,000 are infected, and there is no end in sight.

The increasingly delusional Mr. Mugabe — Zimbabwe’s illegitimate president — announced on Thursday that the cholera crisis is over. Tell that to the Chigudu family which, as The Times’s Celia Dugger reported, lost five children, aged 20 months to 12 years, in a matter of hours. Or to the World Health Organization, which warns that the crisis now poses a regional threat.

Mr. Mugabe blames the West for the epidemic that is spread by water contaminated with human excrement. The blame is all his. Water taps in the capital’s dense suburbs went dry last week, so people could not wash their hands or food. Hospitals are closed. Garbage is everywhere. Sludge spews from burst sewer lines.

The international community must provide emergency shipments of food, water purification tablets and anti-cholera drugs. The United States has allocated another $6.2 million for supplies like soap, rehydration tablets and water containers. Unfortunately, the dying will continue until Mr. Mugabe allows international health care workers to enter the country and do their jobs.

There will be no end to these horrors until Mr. Mugabe is gone. He stole this year’s election and has blocked a unity government. South Africa and other states that insist on an African-led solution to this crisis must stop enabling Mr. Mugabe and lead. They must renounce their recognition of Mr. Mugabe as president and press him and his cronies to cede power. The cholera epidemic, spilling into South Africa and other border states, shows there is nowhere to hide from Mr. Mugabe’s legacy.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Mr. Obama’s Green Team

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/opinion/13sat1.html
December 13, 2008
Editorial
Mr. Obama’s Green Team
[editorial] [Obama’s incoming green team] [hopeful?] [****]
The League of Conservation Voters, starved for good news after eight years of the Bush administration’s environmental policies, has hailed President-elect Barack Obama’s choices for his top energy and environmental jobs as “a Green Dream Team.” Let’s hope it is. [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/opinion/13sat1.html
December 13, 2008
Editorial
Mr. Obama’s Green Team
[editorial] [Obama’s incoming green team] [hopeful?] [****]
The League of Conservation Voters, starved for good news after eight years of the Bush administration’s environmental policies, has hailed President-elect Barack Obama’s choices for his top energy and environmental jobs as “a Green Dream Team.” Let’s hope it is. [****]

There is no question what this team must do — mount a strong offensive on climate change, fashion a more efficient energy system, seek out and invest in next-generation, transformative technologies. These are extraordinarily difficult tasks that will face resistance from industry and many in Congress.

Mr. Obama’s advisers fortunately seem united in their concern for the threats facing the planet and unafraid to use the pricing power of the market or the financial power of government to address them. [****]

This effort will also need the full and very public support of the president. So we are heartened by Mr. Obama’s decision to name a senior White House adviser to coordinate energy and environmental policy. His choice, Carol Browner, ran President Bill Clinton’s Environmental Protection Agency and did not shy from bureaucratic combat. She toughened air quality standards despite opposition from Mr. Clinton’s economic advisers. [***]

Mr. Obama’s most intriguing selection may be his choice to run the Energy Department. Steven Chu is a physicist who shared a Nobel Prize in 1997 and the director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. He has a sophisticated grasp of the complexities of global warming and a strong belief in fighting it aggressively. [***]

Mr. Chu also has refreshingly unconventional ideas of what it would take to solve the problem. Like others, he would put a price on carbon, preferably through a cap-and-trade program, and supports the various efficiency measures — cleaner cars, greener buildings and a modernized electrical grid — that Mr. Obama is likely to include as part of his economic stimulus package. [****]

What sets him apart is his fierce conviction that innovation is just as important as regulation, and that big energy problems, like climate change and the world’s dependency on fossil fuels, will not be solved without major private and public investment in the development and deployment of nonpolluting technologies. [***]

Mr. Obama appears to have chosen well for other essential posts, naming Lisa Jackson, until recently New Jersey’s top environmental officer, to run the Environmental Protection Agency, and Nancy Sutley, who holds the top environmental post in Los Angeles, to head the White House Council on Environmental Policy.

These are not the passive factotums who have occupied these jobs for most of the Bush years. Both believe in using and strengthening the government’s statutory authority to control greenhouse gases and the ground-level pollutants that cause smog and acid rain.

Admirable appointments would mean little unless Mr. Obama forces these issues to the top of his agenda. Ms. Browner can work from dawn to dusk gathering good ideas, selling them to the cabinet and sending them to Capitol Hill in persuasive legislative packages. But as we’ve learned in the last eight years, nothing happens unless the president wants it to.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Amid a Hopeful Mood, U.N. Talks Set Countries on Path Toward a Global Climate Treaty

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/13climate.html
December 13, 2008
Amid a Hopeful Mood, U.N. Talks Set Countries on Path Toward a Global Climate Treaty
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL [Poland] [EU llower 27] [global economic meltdown] [how it affects] [global climate change] [a critical mass was building earlier this year to do something finally about the West’s addiction to fossil fuels] [that is not jeopardized by the economic travails] [use it text] [now little things such as the transition from one administration to the next has stymied efforts to approach climate change] [followup day or 2 ago] [****]
POZNAN, Poland — The United Nations climate talks concluded here early Saturday,

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/13climate.html
December 13, 2008
Amid a Hopeful Mood, U.N. Talks Set Countries on Path Toward a Global Climate Treaty
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL [Poland] [EU llower 27] [global economic meltdown] [how it affects] [global climate change] [a critical mass was building earlier this year to do something finally about the West’s addiction to fossil fuels] [that is not jeopardized by the economic travails] [use it text] [now little things such as the transition from one administration to the next has stymied efforts to approach climate change] [followup day or 2 ago] [****]
POZNAN, Poland — The United Nations climate talks concluded here early Saturday, having seemingly achieved their modest goals and then some: setting the world on the track to a new global climate treaty with a renewed sense of purpose and momentum.

The final documents produced at the conference contained a few groundbreaking elements, most notably giving nations credit for saving forests and opening up a long-planned fund to help poor countries adapt to climate change. However, many countries complained bitterly that the fund did not provide adequate financing. [***]

Perhaps contributing most to the hopeful mood were signs from high-level United States officials that the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama would be ready to hit the ground running with a new United States climate policy. [***]

“This is a challenge of leadership, and we have an enormous obligation to meet it,” said Senator John Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts, who will be chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and who has been here for past two days meeting with officials from various countries, including China and Australia.

The new administration and the Congress “are all on the same page,” he said. “The U.S. has to act, we must lead and we need to have mandatory emissions targets.”

The United States would need to have its climate negotiation team in place by late January or early February, Mr. Kerry said, so that it could be “confident” of shaping the next treaty negotiating session, scheduled for March in Bonn, Germany. Nations are aiming to have a treaty finished at a final negotiating session in Copenhagen in December 2009.

Mr. Obama has said he wants to return to 1990 greenhouse-gas emissions levels by 2020, but Mr. Kerry said he personally felt the cuts should be deeper. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said nations would need to reduce emissions 25 to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 in order to avert the serious and potentially disastrous consequences of climate change.

The struggles the European Union has had in passing its own climate and energy package, which was announced on Friday after rancorous negotiations in Brussels, showed how difficult it can be to get businesses to cut emissions or invest in clean technology against the backdrop of a global recession.

Environmental groups like Greenpeace said the European Union package “watered down” an ambitious program by giving too many carbon credits for free, allowing some industries broad exceptions to the emissions limits and giving countries too much leeway to offset pollution at home by investing in green projects overseas. [***]

“Just at the time that the U.S. is finally re-engaging with the international community on climate, it looks like the E.U.’s leadership is dropping away,” said Joris den Blanken, the European climate and energy director for Greenpeace.

Still, many here took heart that the European Union package did not backslide on previously announced commitments to reduce emissions by 2020 to 20 percent below 1990 levels. Indeed, they said the fights in Brussels demonstrated the flexibility of a so-called cap and trade system and were a preview of struggles to come in the United States. Under such a system, which is planned by the new administration, limits are placed on emissions by companies or industries; and if those limits are exceeded, carbon credits must be purchased from others who have not reached their limit.

“The most important thing is that they were not revisiting their targets,” said Elliot Diringer, vice president of international strategies at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

Indeed, the combination of a progress here, a new European Union package and the change of administrations in Washington left many delegates and environmental advocates here echoing the words of the Bellona Foundation, the largest environment group in Norway: “Now the ball is rolling.” [***]

“The expectations for this meeting weren’t high, but there have been good developments and the E.U. package makes me happy,” said Frederic Hauge, chief of Bellona, noting that the package contains billions of dollars for developing new clean technology. Still, some environmental groups left Poznan unsatisfied. “Over all we are disappointed,” said Savio Carvalho, of Oxfam Uganda, noting that developed nations seemed too consumed with their own financial troubles to provide genuine assistance to poorer countries.

The conference mostly set out to define the final outlines of a treaty that will be negotiated over the next year, and in that regard “the meeting got done what was needed,” Mr. Diringer said.

At the same time, battle lines were drawn for the coming year. Under the previous treaty, the Kyoto Protocol, industrialized nations had to commit to emissions reduction targets, while developing nations did not. The United States never ratified the Kyoto Protocol.

That formula may no longer be acceptable, Mr. Kerry suggested, since some developing nations now contribute heavily to global greenhouse-gas emissions. China and India are the world’s No. 1 and No. 3 emitters, respectively. The United States is No. 2.

While Mr. Kerry said that no one expected China to accept the same kind of emissions commitment as industrialized countries, “they will have to have some kind of target or we will not be able to ratify the agreement.”

Another point of contention was control of a fund that had been created to help poor countries respond to climate change. The European Union initially proposed that an outside group like the World Bank do the job. But that angered many poor countries, and the proposal was dropped.

“We need something simple and responsive that developing countries control,” said Masao Nakayama, the ambassador of the Federated States of Micronesia to the United Nations. “There’s a fire, and it’s like they’re arguing about whether to use a plastic bucket or a metal bucket or a hose.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Ecuador: President Orders Debt Default

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/americas/13briefs-PRESIDENTORD_BRF.html
December 13, 2008
World Briefing | The Americas
Ecuador: President Orders Debt Default
By SIMON ROMERO [Ecuador] [Ecuador] [Latin America] [South America] [division between largely pro-US pro West states] [and Venezuela leading the anti-US states] [Ecuador leaning toward Chavez?] [Colombia toward US] [followup April 21] [******]
President Rafael Correa has declared his country in default on foreign debt as his government grapples with falling oil income and a decline in remittances from Ecuadoreans living abroad. Calling the debt “immoral and illegitimate,” Mr. Correa said

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/americas/13briefs-PRESIDENTORD_BRF.html
December 13, 2008
World Briefing | The Americas
Ecuador: President Orders Debt Default
By SIMON ROMERO [Ecuador] [Ecuador] [Latin America] [South America] [division between largely pro-US pro West states] [and Venezuela leading the anti-US states] [Ecuador leaning toward Chavez?] [Colombia toward US] [followup April 21] [******]
President Rafael Correa has declared his country in default on foreign debt as his government grapples with falling oil income and a decline in remittances from Ecuadoreans living abroad. Calling the debt “immoral and illegitimate,” Mr. Correa said his government would not make a $31 million interest payment, a move heightening concern in global markets over Ecuador’s $10 billion in foreign debt. The decision by Mr. Correa, an American-educated economist, could have far-reaching impact in Ecuador, which risks being shut off from foreign credit markets even as the move temporarily frees up funds for social welfare projects.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Militias in Congo Tied to Government and Rwanda

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/africa/13congo.html
December 13, 2008
Militias in Congo Tied to Government and Rwanda
By LYDIA POLGREEN [Congo] [DRC] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved at time] [is the Hutu-Tutsi blood bath flowing into Congo?] [incredibly bad situation] [******]
GOMA, Congo — A report to the United Nations Security Council by a panel of independent experts found evidence of links between senior officials of the Congolese and Rwandan governments and the armed groups fighting in eastern Congo. The findings portray a complex proxy struggle between the nations, with each using armed

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/africa/13congo.html
December 13, 2008
Militias in Congo Tied to Government and Rwanda
By LYDIA POLGREEN [Congo] [DRC] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved at time] [is the Hutu-Tutsi blood bath flowing into Congo?] [incredibly bad situation] [******]
GOMA, Congo — A report to the United Nations Security Council by a panel of independent experts found evidence of links between senior officials of the Congolese and Rwandan governments and the armed groups fighting in eastern Congo. The findings portray a complex proxy struggle between the nations, with each using armed forces based in the area to pursue political, financial and security objectives in a region ravaged by conflict. [****]

The report, which was based on months of independent research in the region, gives the clearest picture yet of the underpinnings of the fighting in eastern Congo, revealing a sordid network of intertwined interests in Congo and Rwanda that have fueled the continuing chaos.

Tiny Rwanda and its vast neighbor to the west, Congo, have long been connected by a shared history of ethnic strife. In the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide in 1994, Hutu militias that carried out the killing fled into Congo, then known as Zaire.

In 1996, Rwanda backed a rebel force led by Laurent Kabila that ultimately toppled Congo’s longtime president, Mobutu Sese Seko. The initial aim had been to capture the Hutu fighters who had carried out the genocide, but the fighting devolved into a frenzy of plundering of Congo’s minerals, spawning a conflict that drew in half a dozen nations and left as many as five million people dead. Most died of hunger and disease.

The report’s findings on the current conflict are likely to strain already tense relations between the countries, providing ammunition for each. Congolese officials have accused Rwanda of supporting Tutsi rebels led by a renegade general from the same ethnic group as much of Rwanda’s establishment.

Rwanda has accused Congo’s government of colluding with an armed group led by some of the Hutu militia who carried out the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. These are the fighters who fled afterward to Congo and eventually formed a group known by its French abbreviation, the F.D.L.R. It preys on Congolese civilians and enriches itself with the country’s gold, tin and coltan, a mineral used in making the tiny processors in electronic equipment.

The independent experts found extensive evidence of high-level communication between the government of Rwanda and the Tutsi rebel group known as the Congress for the Defense of the People, led by the renegade general Laurent Nkunda, based on reviews of satellite phone records.

The report said that the calls were “frequent and long enough to indicate at least extensive sharing of information.”

In interviews, several of General Nkunda’s fighters described Rwandan soldiers’ helping the rebels inside Congo, according to the report. Rwandan soldiers also helped bring recruits, some of them children, to Congo’s border to fight in General Nkunda’s rebellion, the report said.

It also investigated how General Nkunda was paying for his militia, documenting hundreds of thousands of dollars in payments for taxes in territory that he controls. The report also named prominent business executives who had backed him financially.

Congo’s military, meanwhile, has been collaborating with the Hutu militia that is led by the authors of the Rwandan genocide, according to the report. The weak and undisciplined Congolese Army has frequently relied on help from these fighters in battling General Nkunda’s troops.

In exchange for ammunition, the militia fighters have helped in numerous offensives, the report said, citing by name several senior Congolese military officers who had handed over matériel to the Hutu forces. According to satellite phone records, senior military and intelligence figures in Congo have spoken frequently with top Hutu militia leaders.

“It is obvious that Rwandan authorities and Congolese authorities are aware of support provided to rebel groups,” Jason K. Stearns, the coordinator for the five-member panel that produced the report, said Friday at a news conference at the United Nations. “They haven’t done anything to bring it to an end.”

He said the Congolese government said that it had no policy to aid the Hutu militia but that there might be support from individual military commanders. Both governments said that telephone records showing conversations between officials and rebels did not constitute support, he added.
Neil MacFarquhar contributed reporting from the United Nations.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Gates, in Iraq, Affirms Pullout Goal

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/middleeast/14gates.html
December 14, 2008
Gates, in Iraq, Affirms Pullout Goal
By ELISABETH BUMILLER [-ir] [yesterday he was in Afghanistan] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [what is Patraeus waiting for before implementing counterinsurgency program?] [here Gates affirms US intent to withdraw troops per SOFA if not sooner] [cross in govt] [****]
BALAD, Iraq — In an unannounced trip to Iraq on Saturday, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates met with the top American military commander, Gen. Ray Odierno, and reiterated the pledge made in an agreement with the Iraqi government to withdraw all American troops by the end of 2011. [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/world/middleeast/14gates.html
December 14, 2008
Gates, in Iraq, Affirms Pullout Goal
By ELISABETH BUMILLER [-ir] [yesterday he was in Afghanistan] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [what is Patraeus waiting for before implementing counterinsurgency program?] [here Gates affirms US intent to withdraw troops per SOFA if not sooner] [cross in govt] [****]
BALAD, Iraq — In an unannounced trip to Iraq on Saturday, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates met with the top American military commander, Gen. Ray Odierno, and reiterated the pledge made in an agreement with the Iraqi government to withdraw all American troops by the end of 2011. [****]

Earlier in the day, Mr. Gates, speaking at a regional security conference in Bahrain, warned that foreign powers should not try to “test” President-elect Barack Obama with a crisis in his first months in office. And he emphasized that the incoming administration was opposed to what he called Iran’s attempts to destabilize the gulf region. [***]

In Iraq, visiting an American base in Balad, Mr. Gates held a question-and-answer session with soldiers in which he assured them that the United States remained committed to the 2011 withdrawal deadline made in the so-called Status of Forces Agreement with Iraq.

But in speaking with reporters, General Odierno, as have other military officials, said the final withdrawal deadline could still change because the agreement might be renegotiated with the Iraqi government. “Three years is a very long time,” he said. [***] [probably no wholly inspired for Odierno to clean up after SecDef Gates has spoken] [it tends to appear rogue] [****]

And the commander also said that some American troops would remain in Iraqi cities past the June deadline for a withdrawal of combat troops called for in the Iraq agreement. General Odierno said some soldiers would stay at security outposts in a support and training role to Iraqi forces. “We believe that’s part of our transition teams,” he added.

General Odierno declined to say how many American troops might remain in Iraqi cities past the summer and said the number still remained to be negotiated with the Iraqi government. “But what I would say is we’ll maintain our very close partnership with the Iraqi security forces throughout Iraq even after the summer.” [****]

Later on Saturday, a spokesman for General Odierno, Lt. Col. James Hutton, reiterated that the soldiers staying in cities past June would not be combat forces, but rather “enablers” who would provide services like medical care, air traffic control and helicopter support that the Iraqis cannot perform themselves. He said that all their actions would be closely coordinated with the Iraqi government, and that all tenets of the security agreement would be followed. [***]

At the conference in Bahrain, Mr. Gates told regional leaders that Mr. Obama remained committed to American allies and interests around the gulf. And he said that Mr. Obama and his advisers had done more extensive planning across the government for the transition than at any time he could remember, and asserted that they would therefore be prepared from their first day in office. [***] Mr. Gates, who is staying on as defense secretary, has worked for seven presidents; Mr. Obama will be his eighth. [***]

“So anyone who thought that the upcoming months might present opportunities to ‘test’ the new president would be sorely mistaken,” Mr. Gates said at the conference. “President Obama and his national security team, myself included, will be ready to defend the interests of the United States and our friends and allies from the moment he takes office on Jan. 20.” [***]

He mentioned Iran, accusing the Islamic government of destabilizing the Middle East and interfering in Iraq and Afghanistan. “The president-elect and his team are under no illusions about Iran’s behavior and what Iran has been doing in the region and apparently is doing with weapons programs,” [***]he said.

In response to questions from audience members after his formal remarks, Mr. Gates said that although the Pentagon would be sending thousands of additional troops to Afghanistan over the next months, he was ultimately worried about the size of the American presence on Afghan soil. [good] [the strategy should determine numbers] [US troops must be used to protect Afghani population centers first and foremost]The United States plans to add some 20,000 troops in Afghanistan in 2009.

“I am more mindful than most that with 120,000 troops the Soviets still lost, because they never had the support of the Afghan people,” Mr. Gates said. “I think that after we complete these troop increases that we’re talking about, we ought to think long and hard about how many more go in.” [****]

Asked about the problem of piracy of commercial ships off the coast of Somalia, Mr. Gates said he did not think the United States had enough information to launch attacks on pirate bases on land, but said such attacks might be possible in the future. The comment appeared to put Mr. Gates at odds for now with a United Nations resolution that the United States began circulating in the Security Council on Wednesday that would increase interdiction efforts by permitting foreign forces to conduct land-based attacks. [I’m glad he still speaks his mind] [that’s why he’ll be valuable to Obama] [***]
Alissa J. Rubin contributed reporting from Baghdad.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Japan Renews Authorization for Naval Aid in Afghan War

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/asia/13japan.html
December 13, 2008
Japan Renews Authorization for Naval Aid in Afghan War
By MARTIN FACKLER [Japan] [NEAsia] [[Afghanistan] [hydra] [Japan’s military contribution to the coalition of the willing in AfPak] [note: Afghanistan is landlocked] [through in fairness, the US has a substantial Naval presence in region and around Karachi] ] [****]
TOKYO — Japan’s governing party pushed through a law on Friday to extend a

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/asia/13japan.html
December 13, 2008
Japan Renews Authorization for Naval Aid in Afghan War
By MARTIN FACKLER [Japan] [NEAsia] [[Afghanistan] [hydra] [Japan’s military contribution to the coalition of the willing in AfPak] [note: Afghanistan is landlocked] [through in fairness, the US has a substantial Naval presence in region and around Karachi] ] [****]
TOKYO — Japan’s governing party pushed through a law on Friday to extend a refueling mission by its navy in the Indian Ocean, allowing Tokyo to keep its small but symbolic presence in the American-led military action in Afghanistan. [***]

Prime Minister Taro Aso’s Liberal Democratic Party used its majority in Parliament’s more powerful lower house to override an earlier rejection of the bill by the upper house, which the opposition controls. It was the second time this year that the governing party rammed through an extension of the refueling operation, a tactic that risks alienating Japan’s public, which generally has a pacifist bent. [might no be so reluctant if they get attacked by al Qaeda or affiliates] [but probably not very likely to] [Japan not high on jihadis target list] [****]

Mr. Aso had sought quick passage so he could turn his attention to the global financial crisis, amid rising calls at home and abroad for Tokyo to take more action to stimulate its economy. Hours after the refueling extension passed, he appeared on television to announce billions of dollars worth of new spending and loans to create jobs and help companies short of cash.

Mr. Aso is struggling to overcome growing doubts about his leadership, which have driven his public approval ratings below 30 percent with his party facing national elections by September.

The law that was passed Friday allows a Japanese Navy tanker and escorting destroyer to continue operating for another year in waters off Pakistan, where they provide fuel and water for American and other warships supporting operations in Afghanistan. While the mission has limited military value, it has significance as a test of Japan’s alliance with the United States.[***]

“Antiterror patrols have suppressed and deterred terrorist activities in the Indian Ocean,” Mr. Aso said in a statement. “It is extremely significant for Japan to continue its refueling mission as a member of international society.”

J. Thomas Schieffer, the United States ambassador to Japan, immediately welcomed the mission’s extension.

Any use of its military overseas is a delicate issue in Japan, whose post-World War II Constitution renounces its right to wage war. Because of such sensibilities, the law authorizing the operation must be extended every year, setting the stage for an annual political fight. [****]

The largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan, has seized on the refueling issue to attack the Liberal Democrats, whom they accuse of slavishly following the United States. [they do slavishly follow the US] [****]

Mr. Aso and his predecessors said the refueling mission was important for keeping open the sea lanes through which the bulk of Japan’s oil must pass. Extending the mission had assumed additional urgency in light of President-elect Barack Obama’s emphasis on America’s role in Afghanistan.

The refueling mission began in late 2001, when the American-led coalition began its war in Afghanistan. The refueling was briefly halted late last year when the opposition won control of the upper house, resuming in January with new restrictions limiting refueling to ships directly involved in the Afghanistan operation.

Last month, Japan announced that it would pull its military out of Iraq, ending its airlift operation there by the end of the year. [it even has a score or two of ground troops at one point—unsurprisingly, short lived] [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

4 Killed in Shooting by U.S. at a Bus Carrying Afghans

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/asia/13afghan.html
December 13, 2008
4 Killed in Shooting by U.S. at a Bus Carrying Afghans
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [what is Patraeus waiting for before implementing counterinsurgency program?] [another PR disaster in the making just after the accidentally killed Afghani policemen days ago] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — United States soldiers opened fire on a bus carrying

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/asia/13afghan.html
December 13, 2008
4 Killed in Shooting by U.S. at a Bus Carrying Afghans
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [what is Patraeus waiting for before implementing counterinsurgency program?] [another PR disaster in the making just after the accidentally killed Afghani policemen days ago] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — United States soldiers opened fire on a bus carrying civilians Friday in central Afghanistan, killing four passengers after the driver refused to stop, military officials said.

The bus was heading toward 20 soldiers on foot patrol on a highway in central Wardak Province, a spokesman for NATO’s International Security Assistance Force said. The soldiers first fired warning rounds in the air to stop the vehicle, then shot into the engine block, the spokesman said. The bus kept coming, so they opened fire on the vehicle in self-defense, he said. [over coming days this story will likely change] [sadly, there is a pattern in these Afghanistan cockups] [****]

The provincial governor and local residents confirmed that the soldiers were American forces.

At least 10 passengers were wounded, said Halim Fidai, the governor of Wardak Province. The military said the wounded had been evacuated to military hospitals. The shooting occurred about 40 miles south of Kabul, the capital, on the main road between Kabul and the southern city of Kandahar.

The episode was one of a series that threatened to undermine Afghan support for foreign troops, just as the United States is preparing to significantly increase its military presence in the country. The United Nations said in September that 577 Afghan civilians had been killed this year by American, NATO and Afghan troops, a 21-percent increase from 2007. [****]Taliban fighters and other insurgents killed an additional 800 civilians this year.

The blue bus was moved to the side of the road by Friday afternoon, and American troops cordoned off the area, according to a camera operator on the scene. The windows of the bus were shattered, and one side was pocked with holes. People gathered nearby to try to view the wreckage. Rahmat Ullah, who owns a construction company in Kabul but lives in Wardak, said he heard the shots around 10 a.m. from his house. He said he went outside to watch the wounded being moved into helicopters.

Spokesmen for American forces declined to comment, referring all inquiries to NATO’s International Security Assistance Force, because the troops were operating under its auspices. [***]

Wardak and the neighboring province of Logar are two of the areas scheduled for an infusion of American combat forces in January, when the first of a total of 20,000 additional soldiers requested by American commanders are expected to arrive.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

British Jury Refuses to Clear Police in a Mistaken Killing

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/europe/13britain.html
December 13, 2008
British Jury Refuses to Clear Police in a Mistaken Killing
By JOHN F. BURNS [UK] London] [followup to 2005 attacks] [during the period, British policie killed an immigrant, a Brazillian] [stirred things up a bit] [all this time later, apparently still not resolved] [dragging on like this cannot possibly be good news for British authorities especially those in counterterrorism] [****]
LONDON — An inquest jury on Friday effectively rejected police claims that a 27-year-

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/europe/13britain.html
December 13, 2008
British Jury Refuses to Clear Police in a Mistaken Killing
By JOHN F. BURNS [UK] London] [followup to 2005 attacks] [during the period, British policie killed an immigrant, a Brazillian] [stirred things up a bit] [all this time later, apparently still not resolved] [dragging on like this cannot possibly be good news for British authorities especially those in counterterrorism] [****]
LONDON — An inquest jury on Friday effectively rejected police claims that a 27-year-old Brazilian electrician was shot dead lawfully after he was mistakenly identified as a suspect in a failed plot to bomb the London subway in July 2005. [***]

In an 8-to-2 vote, the “open verdict” returned by the jury failed to offer the backing Scotland Yard had sought for police commanders and the two firearms officers who shot the Brazilian, [***]Jean Charles de Menezes. The officers shot him seven times in the head aboard a crowded subway train after mistaking him for an Islamic terrorist.

The jury’s finding, after testimony from more than 100 witnesses over three months, ensured that the bitter controversy over the killing would continue. The case has rocked Scotland Yard and contributed to the recent forced resignation of Sir Ian Blair, [***]Britain’s top police officer.

A statement after the verdict by Mr. de Menezes’s family condemned the inquest proceedings as a “whitewash” and vowed to pursue legal action against the police in Britain’s High Court.

Still, a statement read at a news conference on behalf of Mr. de Menezes’s mother, Maria Otone de Menezes, welcomed the verdict as a victory in the family’s long battle to see the police officers involved in the shooting punished. “Today I feel as if I have been reborn,” Mrs. de Menezes said.

No British police officer in 50 years has been prosecuted for unlawful killing in the pursuit of his duty, a charge the de Menezes family has urged. But the profound impact of the shooting on Scotland Yard was reflected [***]in the statement made immediately after the verdict by Sir Paul Stephenson, acting commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, informally known as Scotland Yard.

Sir Paul took over Sir Ian’s responsibilities last month and appeared keen, as a leading candidate to be named his permanent successor, to strike a contrite tone.

“Jean Charles de Menezes was an innocent man, and we must, and do, accept full responsibility for his death,” Sir Paul said outside the inquest, held in an auditorium at the Oval cricket ground. “In the face of the enormous challenges faced by officers on that day,” he said, “we made a most terrible mistake. I am sorry.” He said Scotland Yard would learn from its mistakes “so as to minimize the chance of this ever happening again.” [***]

The shooting of Mr. de Menezes occurred on July 22, the day after four men, all of them later arrested and sentenced to life in prison, sought unsuccessfully to replicate the bombings two weeks earlier that killed 56 people, [***]including the four suicide bombers, and injured more than 700 in London’s transit system. The homemade bombs used in the second plot failed to detonate. The resulting manhunt led to the shooting of Mr. de Menezes.

The inquest was thrown into pandemonium last week when the coroner, Sir Michael Wright, ruled that the jurors could not return a finding of unlawful killing by the police, on the grounds that the evidence did not support it. The de Menezes family and its supporters left the courtroom in protest, and later scuffled with bailiffs in an attempt to return.

That left the jury with two possible verdicts: finding that the killing was lawful, as Scotland Yard contended, or rendering what is known as an open verdict. An open verdict, in the British legal system, generally means an inquest jury has concluded that the evidence does not justify any firm conclusion about the responsibility for a death. [***]

With the open verdict, the jurors appeared to have eased the way for further legal action by the de Menezes family, most likely in the form of a High Court appeal seeking to overturn the coroner’s ruling blocking a verdict of unlawful killing. Legal experts said an appeal would be strengthened by a series of damning conclusions about the circumstances of the shooting that the jurors gave in answer to a series of questions by the coroner.

The jurors’ conclusions showed they rejected as untrue essential parts of police testimony. They concluded that one of the two officers who shot Mr. de Menezes had not shouted “armed police,” as they testified, [***]when they stormed the stationary subway car where Mr. de Menezes was sitting. A total of 17 civilian passengers on the train testified they heard no such warning before the officers fired.

The account of the two armed police officers, identified in court only by their code names, Charlie 2 and Charlie 12, was that the warning was ignored by Mr. de Menezes, who they said had stood up and walked toward them with his arms and hands in a position “consistent with someone who may be about to detonate a bomb hidden on their person or in a belt.” They said his actions left them with no option, consistent with police procedures, but to shoot Mr. de Menezes in the head. [***]

The jurors, in their answers to the judges’ questions, said they had concluded that Mr. de Menezes had stood up, but that he had not moved toward the firearms officers, a finding that also tallied with the testimony of other passengers aboard the train. [***]

Outside the inquest, the jurors’ findings on what happened in those final seconds before the shooting were cited by members of the de Menezes family and their supporters as evidence of an attempted police cover-up.

Other factors the jurors cited as having contributed to the killing included the failure to provide police pursuit teams with better photographs of the suspect they were after: Hussain Osman, one of the four now serving a life sentence. The police pursuers were provided with only an indistinct gym-card photo taken from a backpack abandoned by Mr. Osman after his failed bombing attempt, and another photo from closed-circuit cameras in the subway system, instead of high-quality photos from government immigration files.

The gym card led the police to an apartment block in the south London neighborhood of Tulse Hill, where surveillance officers spotted Mr. de Menezes, a resident of the same block as Mr. Osman, as he left for work the next morning. The officers followed him as he boarded two buses before entering the Stockwell station. The police cited his erratic route to the station — caused by the temporary closing of another station — as part of the “suspicious” behavior that led them to mistake him for Mr. Osman.

The jurors said the shooting could have been prevented if the surveillance officers had stopped Mr. Menezes from boarding the buses or entering the Stockwell station. The decision to defer an earlier attempt to arrest him was made by Cressida Dick, an assistant commissioner of Scotland Yard who was in charge of the operation that ended with the shooting. Inquest testimony showed that Ms. Dick wavered at critical moments during the pursuit, finally deciding against halting Mr. de Menezes before the armed police caught up with him, after he had boarded the train. [***]

Evidence at the inquest showed that one factor involved in the de Menezes shooting was a new set of procedures for dealing with suspected terrorists and suicide bombers that Scotland Yard adopted after 9/11. The procedures, ordered after consultation with terrorism experts in Israel, among other countries, gave police commanders authority to approve “shoot to kill” orders to firearms officers in pursuit of terrorists, and were applied only once, in the de Menezes case. Amid the furor over the shooting, Scotland Yard has said that those procedures have been extensively redrawn and tightened. [****]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

U.S. Training in Africa Aims to Deter Extremists

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/africa/13mali.html
December 13, 2008
U.S. Training in Africa Aims to Deter Extremists
By ERIC SCHMITT [Mali] [Africa] [proximity to Mauritania] [north-west Africa] [proximity to Islamic Maghreb] [after recent military coup] [[in a unstable part of Africa] [proximity to Niger delta where insurgency] [drug and arms runners’ no-man land] [the US frantically attempting to prevent more failed states that, in this part of the world, are havens for jihadis] [West and others—French, British—mostly covert stuff] [US has AFRICOM in Djibouti but sends squads of personnel and materiel] [use hydra II] [use psci355, 455, psci469b] [followup] [*****]
KATI, Mali — Thousands of miles from the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan, another

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/africa/13mali.html
December 13, 2008
U.S. Training in Africa Aims to Deter Extremists
By ERIC SCHMITT [Mali] [Africa] [proximity to Mauritania] [north-west Africa] [proximity to Islamic Maghreb] [after recent military coup] [[in a unstable part of Africa] [proximity to Niger delta where insurgency] [drug and arms runners’ no-man land] [the US frantically attempting to prevent more failed states that, in this part of the world, are havens for jihadis] [West and others—French, British—mostly covert stuff] [US has AFRICOM in Djibouti but sends squads of personnel and materiel] [use hydra II] [use psci355, 455, psci469b] [followup] [*****]
KATI, Mali — Thousands of miles from the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan, another side of America’s fight against terrorism is unfolding in this remote corner of West Africa. American Green Berets are training African armies to guard their borders and patrol vast desolate expanses against infiltration by Al Qaeda’s militants, [I would think that the Algeria’s al Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb involved with shared Algeria-Mali border] [probably uses Mali as staging-training rump state] [***]so the United States does not have to.

A recent exercise by the United States military here was part of a wide-ranging plan, developed after the Sept. 11 attacks, to take counterterrorism training and assistance to places outside the Middle East, like the Philippines and Indonesia. In Africa, a five-year, $500 million partnership between the State and Defense Departments includes Algeria, Chad, Mauritania, Mali, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Tunisia, [***] and Libya is on the verge of joining. [****]

American efforts to fight terrorism in the region also include nonmilitary programs, like instruction for teachers and job training for young Muslim men who could be singled out by militants’ recruiting campaigns. [more classic CORDs-like counterinsurgency means] [**] [also very much along the lines of the Nixon Doctrine during end of Vietnam] [****]

One goal of the program is to act quickly in these countries before terrorism becomes as entrenched as it is in Somalia, [***]an East African nation where there is a heightened militant threat. And unlike Somalia, Mali is willing and able to have dozens of American and European military trainers conduct exercises here, and its leaders are plainly worried about militants who have taken refuge in its vast Saharan north. [****]

“Mali does not have the means to control its borders without the cooperation of the United States,” Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, a former prime minister, said in an interview.

Mali, a landlocked former French colony that is nearly twice the size of Texas with roughly half the population, has a relatively stable, though still fragile, democracy. [***]But it borders Algeria, whose well-equipped military has chased Qaeda militants into northern Mali, where they have adopted a nomadic lifestyle, making them even more difficult to track. [almost certainly interface with AQIM] [****]

With only 10,000 people in its military and other security forces, and just two working helicopters and a few airplanes, Mali acknowledges how daunting a task it is to try to drive out the militants. [***]

The biggest potential threat comes from as many as 200 fighters from an offshoot of Al Qaeda called Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, which uses the northern Malian desert as a staging area and support base, [I was right apparently] [***] American and Malian officials say.

About three months ago, the Qaeda affiliate threatened to attack American forces that operated north of Timbuktu (or Tombouctou) in Mali’s desert, three Defense Department officials said. One military official said the threat contributed to a decision to shift part of the recent training exercise out of that area. [***]

The government of neighboring Mauritania said 12 of its soldiers were killed in an attack there by militants in September. By some accounts, the soldiers were beheaded and their bodies were booby-trapped with explosives. [***]

Two Defense Department officials expressed fear that a main leader of the Qaeda affiliate in Mali, Mokhtar Belmokhtar, [***]was under growing pressure to carry out a large-scale attack, possibly in Algeria or Mauritania, to establish his leadership credentials within the organization.

Members of the Qaeda affiliate have not attacked Malian forces, and American and Malian officials privately acknowledge that military officials here have adopted a live-and-let-live approach to the Qaeda threat, focusing instead on rebellious Tuareg tribesmen, [***] [doesn’t seem like what the US should be doing] [why not hunting them down?] [***] who also live in the sparsely populated north.

To finance their operations, the militants exact tolls from smugglers whose routes traverse the Qaeda sanctuary, and collect ransoms in kidnappings. In late October, two Austrians were released after a ransom of more than $2 million was reportedly paid. [***] They had been held in northern Mali after being seized in southern Tunisia in February.

Because of the militants’ activities, American officials eye the largely ungoverned spaces of Mali’s northern desert with concern. [I hope the US is keeping Keyhole parked over region for pictures of training camps and activities] [****]

This year, the United States Agency for International Development is spending about $9 million on counterterrorism measures here. Some of the money will expand an existing job training program for women to provide young Malian men in the north with the basic skills to set up businesses like tiny flour mills or cattle enterprises. Some aid will train teachers in Muslim parochial schools in an effort to prevent them from becoming incubators of anti-American vitriol. [***]

The agency is also building 12 FM radio stations in the north to link far-flung villages to an early-warning network that sends bulletins on bandits and other threats. Financing from the Pentagon will produce, in four national languages, radio soap operas promoting peace and tolerance. [Mali a mix of several ethnic groups though main one accountf for around 50%] [sounds like good public diplomacy at work] [***]

“Young men in the north are looking for jobs or something to do with their lives,” said Alexander D. Newton, the director of A.I.D.’s mission in Mali. “These are the same people who could be susceptible to other messages of economic security.” [***]

Concern about Mali’s vulnerability also brought a dozen Army Green Berets from the 10th Special Forces Group in Germany, as well as several Dutch and German military instructors, to Mali for the two-week training exercise that ended last month. [***]

Just before noon on a recent sunny, breezy day, Malian troops swept onto a training range here on the savannah north of Bamako, the capital, aboard two CV-22 Ospreys, rotor-blade transport aircraft flown by Air Force Special Operations crews from Hurlburt Field, Fla.

As the dull-gray aircraft landed in a swirling cloud of dust, rotors whomp-whomping, the Malians disembarked single file from the rear ramp in dark-green camouflage uniforms and helmets, M-4 assault rifles at the ready. (The Malians normally use AK-47s, but used American-issue M-4’s for this exercise.)

After a mile-long march through savannah grass, the troops walked down a hill into a small valley. Their target — the mock hide-out of the insurgents — was in sight. But what the Malians did not know was that their American instructors were lying in wait, and suddenly attacked the troops with a sharp staccato of small-arms fire (plastic paint bullets), with red flares soaring high overhead.

The make-believe skirmish lasted just a few minutes. The Malians, shouting to one another and firing at their attackers, retreated from the ambush rather than try to fight through it. [***]

“We’re still learning,” said Capt. Yossouf Traore, a 28-year-old commander, speaking in English that he learned in Texas and at Fort Benning, Ga., as a visiting officer. “We’re getting a lot of experience in leadership skills and making decisions on the spot.”

Even more significant, Captain Traore said, was that the exercise gave his troops an unusual opportunity to train with soldiers from neighboring Senegal. Soon after the Ospreys returned to whisk the Malian soldiers from the training range, two planeloads of Senegalese troops arrived to carry out the same maneuvers. [***]

Still, worrisome indicators are giving some Malian government and religious leaders, as well as American officials, pause about the country’s ability to deal with security risks.

Mali is the world’s fifth-poorest country and, according to some statistics from the United Nations and the State Department, is getting poorer. One in five Malian children dies before age 5. The average Malian does not live to celebrate a 50th birthday. The country’s population, now at 12 million, is doubling nearly every 20 years. Literacy rates hover around 30 percent and are much lower in rural areas. [***]

There are also small signs that radical clerics are beginning to make inroads into the tolerant form of Islam practiced here for centuries by Sunni Muslims. The number of Malian women wearing all-enveloping burqas is still small, but the increase in the past few years is noticeable, [***]religious leaders say.

New mosques are springing up, financed by conservative religious organizations in Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iran, and scholarships offered to young Malian men to study in those countries are on the rise, [***] [those mosques and madrassas will be Wahhabi] [***] Malian officials say.

In Imam Mahamadou Diallo’s neighborhood in Bamako, a congested, fume-choked city on the Niger River, a simmering debate is under way. Imam Diallo, 48, said that two new mosques had been built in his area with financing from Wahhabi extremist groups in Saudi Arabia, [****]and that they were drawing away some members of his mosque.

“Many people here are poor and don’t have work,” Imam Diallo said through an interpreter in Bambara, one of the local languages. “They’re potentially vulnerable to these Wahhabi people coming in with money.”

Just down a bumpy, reddish dirt road, however, the leader of one of these newer mosques, Al Nour, quarreled with Imam Diallo’s characterization. Ali Abdourohmome Cisse, the imam since Al Nour opened in 2002, said he did not know who had financed its construction. He added that no one on his staff, including an Egyptian assistant who helps conduct Friday Prayer in Arabic, advocated any form of extremism. [right] [from Wahhabi perspective, it isn’t extremism—it’s being pious] [***]

At El Mouhamadiya, an Islamic school in the neighborhood, more than 700 students, ages 4 to 25, take classes including math, physics and Arabic. “But we don’t train them in terrorism,” said Broulaye Sylla, 25, an administrator. “We don’t talk about jihad.” [****] [hope that’s true but doubt it] [****]

Mahmoud Dicko, president of the High Council of Islam in Bamako, acknowledged over soft drinks in his second-story office that the influence of conservative Sunni and even Shiite groups had become more visible, but he said they did not pose a serious threat to Malian society. [****]

“Their influence has limits because of the importance of cultural ties here in Mali,” he said. “We have a tolerant Islam here, a pacifist Islam.” [****]

American and African diplomats here said Mali was one of the few countries in the region that had good relations with most neighbors, making it a likely catalyst for the broader regional security cooperation the United States is trying to foster. American commanders expressed confidence that by training together, the African forces might work together against transnational threats like Al Qaeda. [***]While Mali has no effective helicopter fleet, for instance, it could team up its soldiers with better-equipped neighboring armies, like Algeria’s, to combat a common threat.

“If we don’t help these countries work together, it becomes a much more difficult problem,” said Lt. Col. Jay Connors, the senior American Special Forces officer on the ground here during the exercise.

American and Malian officials acknowledged that there were other hurdles to overcome. The Pentagon needs to better explain the role of its new Africa Command, created in October to oversee military activities on the continent, and to dispel fears that the United States is militarizing its foreign policy, [****]Malian officials said.

American officials say their strategy is to contain the Qaeda threat and train the African armies, a process that will take years. The nonmilitary counterterrorism programs are just starting, and it is too early to gauge results. [****]

“This is a long-term effort,” said Colonel Connors, 45, an Africa specialist from Burlington, Vt., who speaks French and Portuguese. “This is crawl, walk, run, and right now, we’re still in the crawl phase.”
Eric Schmitt reported from Mali in November, and did additional reporting from Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

With House Arrest Pakistan Curbs, Lightly, a Leader Tied to Mumbai Attackers

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/asia/13pstan.html
December 13, 2008
With House Arrest Pakistan Curbs, Lightly, a Leader Tied to Mumbai Attackers
By RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr. and SALMAN MASOOD [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [attacks may be worth it—apparently at least some al Qaeda operatives] [but my general impression remains] [breaches of sovereignty largely being wasted on tactical rather than strategic gains] [it’s now conventional wisdom that Pres Bush made the decision to go medieval in July] [however, Pakistan is cauldron of failed state, communal violence, and a citizenry that believes the US does not have Pakistan’s interests in mind—and not without good cause] [almost wholly eclipsed by Mumbai but it’s of course ongoing and serious] [use psci469b] [followup] [***]
LAHORE, Pakistan — On a normal Friday afternoon the line of cars and red Honda

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/asia/13pstan.html
December 13, 2008
With House Arrest Pakistan Curbs, Lightly, a Leader Tied to Mumbai Attackers
By RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr. and SALMAN MASOOD [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [attacks may be worth it—apparently at least some al Qaeda operatives] [but my general impression remains] [breaches of sovereignty largely being wasted on tactical rather than strategic gains] [it’s now conventional wisdom that Pres Bush made the decision to go medieval in July] [however, Pakistan is cauldron of failed state, communal violence, and a citizenry that believes the US does not have Pakistan’s interests in mind—and not without good cause] [almost wholly eclipsed by Mumbai but it’s of course ongoing and serious] [use psci469b] [followup] [***]
LAHORE, Pakistan — On a normal Friday afternoon the line of cars and red Honda motorbikes outside the Qadssiya mosque stretches to a gas station a half mile away. Eight thousand worshipers typically come to hear Hafiz Muhammad Saeed preach at the headquarters of the organization he leads, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the charity that fronts for the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba. [***]The two-tiered mosque can accommodate only a portion of the crowd, so the remainder spill out onto a broad concrete courtyard.

But this Friday the road outside was clear, and the few thousand who showed up were all able to fit inside. The day before, the Pakistani authorities had put Mr. Saeed under house arrest and closed dozens of the group’s offices across the country. Many followers were unnerved. [***]

“The government has created a panic,” said Mohammed Nawaz, 35, one of the mosque administrators, who estimated that only one in four people came to this week’s services. “Our leader has been arrested, so what happens if they come to prayers? Not a lot of people have come today. People are not certain what will happen next.” [***]

A few miles away, in Mr. Saeed’s leafy neighborhood, it was a decidedly more relaxed scene. Several dozen policemen ringed the area around his home, standing casually with rifles and enforcing a house arrest that seemed more of a forced vacation. [***]

Two heavily bearded workers from Jamaat-ud-Dawa arrived with food, and the police raised the barricades and allowed them through, choosing not to inspect their Suzuki truck. Mr. Saeed’s relatives have been allowed to come and go freely from the home, policemen said. A young boy and a girl standing on the second-floor balcony of Mr. Saeed’s home looked down at the police and smiled.

One local police commander, seeing journalists arrive, rushed over and proclaimed that Mr. Saeed was confined inside his home, banned from going outside now or at any other time.

Almost on cue, Mr. Saeed emerged moments later from the mosque across the street, clad in a green jacket and a cream-colored shalwar kameez, the long tunic and baggy pants that Pakistani men commonly wear, and ambled back to his house. “No, no, it’s not Hafiz Saeed,” the embarrassed commander said, though it clearly was. “I’m just following instructions,” [***]he added.

The two scenes underscored the Pakistani government’s deeply mixed reaction to Mr. Saeed and his organization following the terrorist attacks in Mumbai that the Indian and United States governments have accused Lashkar of carrying out [****].

Under intense pressure to show some resolve against homegrown terrorism, the Pakistani government claims to have arrested the Lashkar official suspected of running the Mumbai attacks, and then on Thursday and Friday it shut down dozens of Jamaat-ud-Dawa offices and said it had detained many of the group’s members. [***]

But the government has also taken clear steps to soften the blow, like allowing Mr. Saeed to hold a defiant news conference before his house arrest began. Mr. Saeed maintains that neither he nor Jamaat-ud-Dawa have had connections to Lashkar for more than six years. [****]

As was apparent at his home on Friday, the government is clearly reluctant to cut off Mr. Saeed and his group too abruptly, partly out of expediency but partly out of fear, too.

Pakistan has used Lashkar and other militant groups as surrogate security forces in Kashmir, [the same way the created and used Taliban before 9/11] [***] the disputed Himalayan region claimed by both Pakistan and India, and many in the country’s army are sympathetic to Lashkar and other Islamist militant groups. The country’s premier spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence, helped establish Lashkar in the 1980s to undermine the Indian authorities in Kashmir.

Lashkar and Jamaat-ud-Dawa remain popular in Punjab, the most populous province, where the cities and villages that spread out from Lahore, the provincial capital, have been the principal recruiting ground for Lashkar and Jamaat-ud-Dawa and for the men accused of carrying out the Mumbai attacks. In these rural areas the two organizations are synonymous. [***]

Moreover, Jaamat-ud-Dawa is seen by many Punjabis as a more effective relief agency than the government, bringing shelter, food, blankets and medicine to people devastated by earthquakes in Kashmir in 2005 and in Baluchistan Province in October.

“All the relief work will be badly affected” by the crackdown, said Mohammed Faizan Kashif, a 28-year-old Lahore banker who attended Friday’s service and, like many here, sharply criticized what he described as the government’s fecklessness and kow-towing to American and Indian pressure. “If I try to organize a fashion show, the government will facilitate it,” he said. “But if I try to highlight the Kashmir issue, the government would stop it.” [***]

Inside the mosque, Mr. Saeed’s 38-year-old son, Mohammed Talha Saeed, took his father’s place at the podium and inveighed against the government’s crackdown as the result of “dictation from the United States” and pressure from “Jews and the Hindu lobby.” [the Hindu lobby?] [new trilogy] [it was always the Americans and the Jews but now the Hindu lobby is integral?] [***]

“If the government continues this type of activity, then one day the army of God will come,” he lectured, urging the worshipers to remain patient. [****]
Waqar Gillani contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

A Wealthy Saudi, Mired in Limbo Over an Accusation of Terrorism

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/middleeast/13kadi.html
December 13, 2008
Saturday Profile
A Wealthy Saudi, Mired in Limbo Over an Accusation of Terrorism
By LANDON THOMAS Jr.
JIDDA, Saudi Arabia[Saudi Arabia] [Bush and Rice in region recently with Bush asking Saudis—few weeks ago—to produce more oil] [since 2003 period, Saudis have been found jihadis threats at home] [growing hydra problem and Saudis response as of 2003 or 2004—that is, after Saudis began seriously considering the nature of the threat] [followup June 26] [c.f., April 2007 (April 27 & 28)] [use hydra II] [use psci 469] [still a large source of Wahabi financing] [****]
YASSIN KADI, [***]a multimillionaire businessman with investments and charities that

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/world/middleeast/13kadi.html
December 13, 2008
Saturday Profile
A Wealthy Saudi, Mired in Limbo Over an Accusation of Terrorism
By LANDON THOMAS Jr.
JIDDA, Saudi Arabia[Saudi Arabia] [Bush and Rice in region recently with Bush asking Saudis—few weeks ago—to produce more oil] [since 2003 period, Saudis have been found jihadis threats at home] [growing hydra problem and Saudis response as of 2003 or 2004—that is, after Saudis began seriously considering the nature of the threat] [followup June 26] [c.f., April 2007 (April 27 & 28)] [use hydra II] [use psci 469] [still a large source of Wahabi financing] [****]
YASSIN KADI, [***]a multimillionaire businessman with investments and charities that span the globe, does not get out much these days. [***]Once a man of the world, Mr. Kadi is confined to Saudi Arabia and spends most of his time in his sun-drenched compound in this bustling commercial capital of the country. His travel is limited mainly to the short drive from his home in Jidda to the office where he manages his shrunken business affairs. [****]

In October 2001, after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the United States Treasury designated Mr. Kadi a terrorist supporter, accusing him of funneling money to Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda through a web of businesses, foundations and universities. [***]

His ample worldwide assets were frozen, and he has been advised by the Saudi government not to leave the country.

But he is not exactly suffering; not financially, at least.

“I am not bankrupt,” he said, as a servant brought sandwiches and coffee. “I still have my life, my house and my car, but it’s embarrassing. I have never been in a situation of asking other people for money.”

As is customary in such cases, Washington has presented no direct evidence linking Mr. Kadi to terrorism. But it has made public a dense labyrinth of associations and business and personal ties that it says establishes Mr. Kadi’s relationship with Mr. bin Laden and his allies. [***]

For a man who has repeatedly claimed his innocence, Mr. Kadi is caught in a legal limbo with no end in sight. The accusations against him are in the form of a government order. [***]But because he has never been charged with a crime, he has not had the opportunity to stand before a jury or a judge to plead his case.

“We have not found Mr. Kadi guilty of anything,” said Adam J. Szubin, the director of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. “But we have found that he is a supporter of terror.” [****]

Washington’s broad freedom to place sanctions on people suspected of financing terrorists has gone mostly unchallenged since the Sept. 11 attacks. Few have rushed to defend wealthy foreigners, in contrast to how civil rights lawyers and others have sought to publicize the plight of the prisoners held at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. [***]

This September, Mr. Kadi’s lawyers persuaded the European Court of Justice to overturn a lower court ruling that supported Europe’s right to freeze his assets. The ruling is nonbinding, however, and the Bush administration continues to maintain that Mr. Kadi is guilty.

A scion of a wealthy and well-connected businessman, Sheik Yassin, as Mr. Kadi is widely known in Saudi Arabia, [***]has the commanding presence of a chief executive and is quite obviously accustomed to the deference that comes to those who deploy large sums of money.

In interviews with government officials, Mr. Kadi has said that his net worth is as much as $65 million. While not garish, his Jidda compound is spacious and well appointed. He has servants and a chauffeur to drive his luxury cars, and he remains an active investor in world currency and stock markets.

(Under the terms of his asset freeze, he can continue to trade his portfolio and to collect dividends, but he cannot take money out of his account.)

Mr. Kadi is mindful that his position is different from those serving time at Guantánamo Bay, but insists that the paradox of his legal condition is no less unfair. “When it is classified,” he said, “you can never defend yourself.”

And, he says, his suffering has been acute in its own regard — he has struggled with bouts of depression, diabetes and the humiliation of having to ask family members for financial help.

THE Treasury claims that it responds to new evidence presented by designees and says that it took 154 names off the list — 4,102 remain — from November 2007 to November 2008. But Mr. Kadi is unlikely to benefit from any reassessment. “We stand by our designation,” Mr. Szubin, the Treasury official, said, “and you can quote me on that.” [***]

Mr. Kadi does not dispute his ties to Mr. bin Laden but maintains that he does not support him and has not spoken to him since the early 1990s. [***]

They do share a common background: tall and in their early 50s, they were both born to wealthy families here in Jidda, studied engineering and, in Mr. Kadi’s telling, first met in Chicago in 1981. Mr. Kadi says he was working for the architectural firm Skidmore Owings & Merrill and that Mr. bin Laden — who is not known to have visited the United States — came to Chicago to recruit American-trained engineers for his family’s construction business. As Mr. Kadi remembers it, he put Mr. bin Laden in touch with a group of engineers, several of whom were eventually hired.

They came together again in Pakistan in the late 1980s as enthusiastic backers of the Afghan rebels in their war with the Soviet Union and became large investors in Sudan in the early 1990s. [***]

But Mr. Kadi says he cut ties after Mr. bin Laden began to adopt an anti-American, openly radical attitude in the mid-1990s.

In the absence of a full airing of the evidence against him, however, it seems unlikely that Mr. Kadi’s guilt or innocence will be established. Like many wealthy Saudis, Mr. Kadi has been an enthusiastic underwriter of Islamic-hued causes, including hospitals in Peshawar, Pakistan, and Albania; a university in Yemen; and the publication of a definitive English translation of the Koran. [****]

THIS, he says, is nothing more than a form of blessed relief — the name of his now defunct foundation. But Mr. Szubin and others say Mr. Kadi’s giving is part of a disguised money trail to Al Qaeda and Mr. bin Laden.

Some of the evidence presented by his accusers, however, raises its own questions. For example, a Swiss prosecutor — who investigated Mr. Kadi but did not bring charges — tried to connect him to the fundamentalist philosopher Sayyid Qutb. The problem was that Mr. Qutb was put to death by the Egyptian government in 1966, when Mr. Kadi was 9 years old. Mr. Kadi was questioned in another case about his ties to one Saad Djebbar — who turned out to be his lawyer.

On the other hand, Mr. Kadi’s ’s continued refusal to renounce figures suspected of being terrorist supporters gives ready ammunition to his critics. [***]

One of those figures is Wael Juleidan, a prominent Saudi financier who was a close ally of Mr. bin Laden’s in the late 1980s. Another is Muhammad Salah, a Palestinian-American who was accused of sending money to Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza.

Mr. Salah, who was acquitted of the Hamas charges in federal court last year, ran a Chicago-based Muslim charity that received about $1 million from Mr. Kadi in the early 1990s.

“If I wanted to send money to Hamas, I would do it directly, not via Chicago,” Mr. Kadi said, in his smooth, American-accented English.

Such a comment, with its trace of smug self-assurance, illuminates why Mr. Kadi remains a target for so many antiterrorism investigators. [***]

He is a man who does not easily hide his disdain for the process that has trapped him in his own country or the efforts by the Bush administration to prevent another major terrorist attack. But he insists that his deepest anger is reserved for Mr. bin Laden. Asked what he would say to him now, Mr. Kadi takes his time before responding.

“I would say, ‘Wash your hands of the blood of innocent people,’ ” Mr. Kadi said, using the Arabic word “fitna” to describe the devastation that Mr. bin Laden’s actions have brought upon him and the Islamic world. “Islam is innocent of all this. This was a big mistake. Now, everyone is suspicious.” [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

6 in Belgium Said to Belong to Qaeda Cell

December 13, 2008
6 in Belgium Said to Belong to Qaeda Cell
By STEVEN ERLANGER [Belgium] [though dateline Paris] [Brussels] [Belgium] [EU] [al Qaeda] [as 9/11, 3/11, and 2005-06 in UK fade] [so too does determination to prevent another attack] [complacency is winning, I’m afraid] [recently, August-September, a debate about al Qaeda’s extreme measures and whether said are effective in re-creating the caliphate] [pretty intense criticism of OBL and Zawahiri] [is another 9/11 in the works as we prepare to elect next president?] [I fear al Qaeda intends to give Bush a going-away present!] [use psci469b] [followup to November 2] [****]
PARIS — Authorities in Belgium charged six suspected extremists Friday with membership in a terrorist group, [****]according to a spokeswoman for the Federal

December 13, 2008
6 in Belgium Said to Belong to Qaeda Cell
By STEVEN ERLANGER [Belgium] [though dateline Paris] [Brussels] [Belgium] [EU] [al Qaeda] [as 9/11, 3/11, and 2005-06 in UK fade] [so too does determination to prevent another attack] [complacency is winning, I’m afraid] [recently, August-September, a debate about al Qaeda’s extreme measures and whether said are effective in re-creating the caliphate] [pretty intense criticism of OBL and Zawahiri] [is another 9/11 in the works as we prepare to elect next president?] [I fear al Qaeda intends to give Bush a going-away present!] [use psci469b] [followup to November 2] [****]
PARIS — Authorities in Belgium charged six suspected extremists Friday with membership in a terrorist group, [****]according to a spokeswoman for the Federal Prosecutor’s Office. Officials labeled the group “the Belgian branch of Al Qaeda.” [***]

The 6 were among 14 people arrested in raids early Thursday, including a woman who writes jihadist screeds on the Internet and three men the Belgian authorities said had just returned from training camps along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, one of whom was said to be preparing a suicide mission. [pretty clear evidence that plots underway in Europe] [hard to imagine the same isn’t in the works for US-Canada] [***]

Lieve Pellens, spokeswoman for the prosecutor, said in a telephone interview that the authorities considered that nearly all the main suspects in the case were charged, [**] except for a seventh man who was released for lack of evidence.

While the names of those arrested or charged were not released, Ms. Pellens said that Malika el-Aroud, the jihadist writer, was among those charged. She had traveled to Afghanistan for training by Al Qaeda with her first husband, who was assigned by Osama bin Laden to assassinate Afghanistan’s chief anti-Taliban fighter just before Sept. 11, 2001. [***]He succeeded in killing the man, Ahmed Shah Massoud, the leader of the Northern Alliance, in a suicide bombing. [I have heard her interviewed before] [she is proud of her husbands matrydom even though Massoud and others maimed were Muslims] [***]

Her current husband, Moez Garsalloui, [***]was not arrested and is still believed to be with Al Qaeda along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Belgian officials consider him to be the main organizer of the suspected cell, and responsible for sending back three of the men who were believed to have been charged on Friday. [***]

Those charged were of Moroccan origin and all Belgian nationals, and Ms. Aroud is the only woman among them; the men are described as in their 20s or 30s. The charge, belonging to a terrorist organization, has a maximum sentence of 10 years, but the charges can be adjusted later. [***]

In Belgium, those arrested must be brought before a judge to be charged or released within 24 hours. Within five days, the investigating judge and prosecutor must present their case before a pretrial court, a kind of grand jury, at which defense counsel can be present. At that point, the charged suspects can be released altogether, released under certain conditions pending trial or detained for trial. [***]
Basil Katz contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

December 11, 2008

Obama Team Set on Environment

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/us/politics/11appoint.html
December 11, 2008
Obama Team Set on Environment
By JOHN M. BRODER [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [making the transitions to an AfPak strategy during a transition of epic nature] [concomitantly, global economic meltdow, along with climate catastrophe] [here the latter is the agenda] [******]
WASHINGTON — President-elect Barack Obama has selected his top energy and environmental advisers, including a Nobel Prize-winning physicist and the former head

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/us/politics/11appoint.html
December 11, 2008
Obama Team Set on Environment
By JOHN M. BRODER [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [making the transitions to an AfPak strategy during a transition of epic nature] [concomitantly, global economic meltdow, along with climate catastrophe] [here the latter is the agenda] [******]
WASHINGTON — President-elect Barack Obama has selected his top energy and environmental advisers, including a Nobel Prize-winning physicist and the former head of the Environmental Protection Agency, [***]presidential transition officials said Wednesday.

Collectively, they will have the task of carrying out Mr. Obama’s stated intent to curb global warming emissions drastically while fashioning a more efficient national energy system. And they will be able to work with strong allies in Congress who are interested in developing climate-change legislation, despite fierce economic headwinds that will amplify objections from manufacturers and energy producers.

The officials said Mr. Obama would name Steven Chu, the director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, as his energy secretary, and Nancy Sutley, deputy mayor of Los Angeles for energy and environment, as head of the White House Council on Environmental Quality. Mr. Obama also appears ready to name Carol M. Browner, the E.P.A. administrator under President Bill Clinton, as the top White House official on climate and energy policy and Lisa P. Jackson, who until recently was New Jersey’s commissioner of environmental protection, as the head of the E.P.A. [***] [eclectic and impressive on its face]

Aides cautioned that while Mr. Obama appeared to favor Ms. Browner for the new White House post, there were still issues to be resolved before the appointment was formalized. Mr. Obama plans to name the environmental team next week in Chicago, aides said.

If named to the White House climate post, Ms. Browner, an acolyte of former Vice President Al Gore, will have forceful support in the new Congress, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Representative Henry A. Waxman of California, who will be the new chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, and Senator Barbara Boxer of California, who is returning as chairwoman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. Opposing their efforts will be many Republicans and some Democrats, as well as manufacturers, utilities, oil companies and coal producers who will bear the brunt of the costs of any steps to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the main culprit in global warming.

In the coming months, the administration will also have to devise a strategy for dealing with global talks to address climate change, which are already under way.

In addition, both Ms. Browner and Ms. Jackson, who have strong reputations for regulating industry, will be under pressure to revisit and overturn many of the clean-air rules and other regulations imposed during the Bush administration over the objections of environmentalists.

Mr. Obama has promised to spend liberally to finance infrastructure projects and support so-called green technologies that will create jobs while benefiting the environment. These officials will work with Mr. Obama’s economic advisers to try to find — and finance — projects that accomplish these goals.

It was not immediately clear how responsibilities for managing climate change, technological innovation and huge energy infrastructure spending will be divided among them.

Dr. Chu will be taking on one of the most challenging jobs in government at the Department of Energy. He will be responsible for the maintenance and development of the nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile, as well as for modernizing the nation’s electrical power delivery system.

He will also play a central role in directing the research and development of alternative energy sources needed to replace fossil fuels in a era of constrained carbon emissions. Mr. Chu shared a Nobel Prize in physics in 1997 for work on supercooled atoms.

At the Lawrence Berkeley laboratory, he has sponsored research into biofuels and solar energy and has been a strong advocate of controlling greenhouse gas emissions.

Scott Segal, director of the Electric Reliability Coordinating Council, an industry group, said he was pleased that Dr. Chu had the technical expertise to realistically assess future energy technologies.

“His experience seems to dovetail perfectly with the president-elect’s commitment to bringing new energy technology to market in a timely fashion,” Mr. Segal said. “An understanding of the art of the possible in energy technology will be critical to the development of a cost-effective climate change policy.”

Although the scope of Ms. Browner’s job at the White House is still under discussion, aides said that if appointed she would coordinate administration policy across departmental lines and advocate for Mr. Obama’s energy and environmental policies on Capitol Hill. It was not clear on Wednesday whether her office would carry the bureaucratic clout of the National Security Council or the National Economic Council.

Before coming to Washington to head Mr. Clinton’s E.P.A., Ms. Browner was Florida’s top environmental officer. Since leaving government at the end of the Clinton administration, she has been a partner in an international consulting business with Madeleine K. Albright, Mr. Clinton’s second-term secretary of state. Among her clients at the Albright Group was a Dubai-based port operator that sought a contract to manage American ports. The deal fell apart amid heated Congressional criticism.

Ms. Browner, a lawyer, is well known in Washington and around the country as a forceful environmental advocate and experienced capital player. She is married to Tom Downey. a former New York congressman.

“She was a really strong administrator in really tough times,” said Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Campaign, an environmental group.

Ms. Jackson had been the head of New Jersey’s Department of Environmental Protection since 2006, but in October, Gov. Jon S. Corzine announced that she would become his chief of staff starting this month. She has a master’s degree in chemical engineering from Princeton and spent 16 years at the federal E.P.A. as a top enforcement officer in Washington and New York.

She has led the Obama transition team at E.P.A. and knows the agency inside and out, according to associates.

S. William Becker, executive director of the National Association of Clean Air Agencies, which represents state environmental bodies, said Ms. Jackson was among the most respected state environmental officials.

“Her state experience allows her to know what works and what doesn’t work on the ground,” said Mr. Becker, who is not related to Dan Becker. “I also am glad to see they chose an engineer to run E.P.A. The typical choice is an attorney.”

Ms. Sutley, who will direct the Council on Environmental Quality, is now the top environmental adviser to the mayor of Los Angeles, Antonio R. Villaraigosa. She has years of experience in managing water supplies and water quality in California and has also worked on energy-saving construction rules for the City of Los Angeles.

She was a special assistant to Ms. Browner at the E.P.A.
Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting. [****]
An earlier version of this article included an outdated reference to Lisa P. Jackson. She became chief of staff to Gov. Jon S. Corzine of New Jersey on Dec. 1, and has been succeeded as the state’s commissioner of environmental protection by Mark N. Mauriello.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Court Weighs Post-9/11 Liability

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/10/AR2008121003221.html
Court Weighs Post-9/11 Liability
Justice, FBI Chiefs Named in Suit Alleging Anti-Arab Bias
By Robert Barnes
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, December 11, 2008; A05 [bush white house] [president Bush] [all manner of sins justified under the executive theory of war power clause—virtually plenary power] [however, the Supremes may finally be able to rule on it] [scotus took case that allowed Arab American—subsequently deported to Pakistan for unrelated matter—detained in US. Subjected to harsh treatment then deported to sue AG Ashcroft and FBI director Mueller] [were high officials culpable for implementation of emergency detentions based on exigent circumstances] [followup] [use psci355, 455, 469b] [ditto] [****]
A government lawyer told the Supreme Court yesterday that former attorney general

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/10/AR2008121003221.html
Court Weighs Post-9/11 Liability
Justice, FBI Chiefs Named in Suit Alleging Anti-Arab Bias
By Robert Barnes
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, December 11, 2008; A05 [bush white house] [president Bush] [all manner of sins justified under the executive theory of war power clause—virtually plenary power] [however, the Supremes may finally be able to rule on it] [scotus took case that allowed Arab American—subsequently deported to Pakistan for unrelated matter—detained in US. Subjected to harsh treatment then deported to sue AG Ashcroft and FBI director Mueller] [were high officials culpable for implementation of emergency detentions based on exigent circumstances] [followup] [use psci355, 455, 469b] [ditto] [****]
A government lawyer told the Supreme Court yesterday that former attorney general John D. Ashcroft and FBI Director Robert S. Mueller III should not be subjected to lawsuits filed by Arab Muslims who were detained in this country after the 2001 terrorist attacks and say they were singled out for harsh treatment because of their religion and ethnicity. [***]

Solicitor General Gregory G. Garre told the justices that Ashcroft and Mueller are protected from such suits when they are carrying out their duties, and that their actions constituted a "perfectly lawful law enforcement response to the 9/11 attacks."

The oral arguments in the case produced a spirited debate, as justices pondered the reach of civil lawsuits targeting public officials who allegedly abuse civil rights, the ability of the nation's leaders to go about their work without harassment and whether the balance is altered, in the words of Justice Antonin Scalia, "after an attack on this country of the magnitude of 9/11." [this is a slippery slop] [which is why I’m a bit surprised scotus took the case] [in an indirect way, Scalia is framing the administration’s position (in my view prima facie extra constitutional) that the president has essentially plenary power under the commander-in-chief clause when at war] [***]

Ashcroft and Mueller were named in the lawsuit by Javaid Iqbal, a Pakistani television cable installer who was arrested at his Long Island home in the months after the attack. He was held in solitary confinement in a section of a Brooklyn prison known as Admax-Shu, for "administrative maximum special housing unit," where he said he was subjected to numerous beatings and strip searches.

He was convicted of document fraud and deported to Pakistan but cleared of any involvement in terrorism. An Egyptian Muslim who was also part of the suit, Ehad Elmaghraby, settled with the government for $300,000. Similar suits are pending. [***]

Iqbal's case names prison guards, FBI agents, the warden of the prison -- which was the subject of a critical report from the Justice Department inspector general -- up to Ashcroft, who was attorney general at the time of the attack. Iqbal says policies formulated by Ashcroft and Mueller singled him out as a suspect of "high interest" solely because of his nationality and religion.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit in New York acknowledged that top government officials carry immunity but decided it was at least "plausible" that Ashcroft and Mueller were responsible for, or knew about, the discriminatory actions Iqbal alleges. [***] [I’m not sure it slices that narrowly] It said the suit could go forward with evidence-gathering from the lower-level officials in the case, and then a judge could decide whether there was reason to keep the two top officials in the suit.

Iqbal's attorney, Alexander A. Reinert, said the case presents a basic question of "who is responsible" for the alleged mistreatment of his client.

But Garre said, "The higher up the chain of command you go, the less plausible it is that the high-level official like the attorney general is going to be aware of and know about the sort of microscopic decisions here: mistreatment in the federal detention facility in Brooklyn, alleged discriminatory applications made by FBI agents in the field."

Justices seemed conflicted. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. told Garre that "a policy in which they picked up people and they held them until they were cleared, i.e., sort of demonstrated to be innocent in some way,'' would seem to raise due-process concerns.

But he also pressed Reinert repeatedly about whether the "context" of the cases should be taken into account when formulating rules about whether a plaintiff has assembled charges credible enough for a suit to go forward.

"What you have to show is some facts, or at least what you have to allege are some facts, showing that they knew of a policy that was discriminatory based on ethnicity and country of origin," Roberts said.

Garre relied in part on a decision from the court last year that made it harder for those suing for antitrust violations to pursue their cases without more detailed allegations of wrongdoing. Plaintiffs argue that such detail is available only after they have received the right to question the targets of the suits. [***]

But the author of that opinion, Justice David H. Souter, was one of the justices most skeptical about whether those standards applied to an allegation that "the attorney general of the United States and the director of the FBI were in fact directly involved in devising a policy" that discriminated on the basis of race and religion.

Although the issue at hand was whether the circuit court had correctly decided that the case could go forward, much of the argument concerned whether the tough policies enacted after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks were justified. [that’s what I meant above] [now the camel’s nose is under the tent] [what powers to top govt officials—and the very top of the apex is potus—have when exigent circumstances such as 9/11?] [once they get into that argument, it seems certain that some case will follow that seeks to determine when exigent ceased being exigent] [that gets into all the potential sins the administration has authorized—enemy combatants, TSPs, and so on—under theory that potus’ power was plenary after 9/11 and even years later] [****]

Reinert echoed the circuit court in saying that federal officials are never allowed to devise a scheme that would allow suspects to be swept up solely on the basis of their national origin and religion.

Scalia challenged Reinert's description, saying if that were the case, "the net surely was not cast wide enough, if anybody of that race, religion was swept in. I mean, if it's solely for that reason, there would have been hundreds of thousands of others."

Other justices pointed out that the detention applied to those who had violated immigration or criminal statutes.
The case is Ashcroft v. Iqbal.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Justices Hear a Case Weighted by 9/11

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/washington/11scotus.html
December 11, 2008
Justices Hear a Case Weighted by 9/11
By ADAM LIPTAK [bush white house] [president Bush] [all manner of sins justified under the executive theory of war power clause—virtually plenary power] [however, the Supremes may finally be able to rule on it] [scotus took case that allowed Arab American—subsequently deported to Pakistan for unrelated matter—detained in US. Subjected to harsh treatment then deported to sue AG Ashcroft and FBI director Mueller] [were high officials culpable for implementation of emergency detentions based on exigent circumstances] [followup] [use psci355, 455, 469b] [****]
WASHINGTON — A case brought by a Muslim man accusing John Ashcroft, the former

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/washington/11scotus.html
December 11, 2008
Justices Hear a Case Weighted by 9/11
By ADAM LIPTAK [bush white house] [president Bush] [all manner of sins justified under the executive theory of war power clause—virtually plenary power] [however, the Supremes may finally be able to rule on it] [scotus took case that allowed Arab American—subsequently deported to Pakistan for unrelated matter—detained in US. Subjected to harsh treatment then deported to sue AG Ashcroft and FBI director Mueller] [were high officials culpable for implementation of emergency detentions based on exigent circumstances] [followup] [use psci355, 455, 469b] [****]
WASHINGTON — A case brought by a Muslim man accusing John Ashcroft, the former attorney general, and Robert S. Mueller III, the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, of complicity in post-9/11 abuses reached the Supreme Court for arguments on Wednesday on the most preliminary of questions: How specific must a plaintiff’s accusations of misconduct be before he is allowed to pursue a lawsuit? [****] [in other words, how can then AG Ashcroft be held liable and the president who ordered powers under duress not be liable]

That is in a sense a garden-variety question of civil procedure. The legal filings that initiate civil suits must, after all, meet some minimum standards of cogency and legal sufficiency before plaintiffs can force defendants to submit to the information-gathering process lawyers call discovery, much less trial.

But the case of Javaid Iqbal, a Muslim man from Pakistan who used to be a cable television installer on Long Island, seemed freighted with something much larger, and many of the justices’ questions concerned whether the context in which the case arose, in the charged atmosphere in the fall of 2001, should alter or underscore ordinary legal principles. [***]

Mr. Iqbal was among thousands of Muslim men rounded up after the Sept. 11 attacks. Some of them were considered to be “of high interest,” and they were held in a special housing unit of the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. [while not excusable, remember the fear and loathing at the time] [Americans were generally willing to give authorities wide berth temporarily for the illusion of some safety] [my problem is more along the lines of how the administration kept using that same enhanced powers—unitary theory of executive’s war powers—for years] [***]

While there, Mr. Iqbal said, he was subjected to daily body-cavity searches, beatings and extreme temperatures. He said he was kept in solitary confinement with the lights in his cell constantly on, that he was called a terrorist and a “Muslim killer,” and that he lost 40 pounds during six months in the special unit. [***]

He eventually pleaded guilty to identity fraud and was deported to Pakistan.

His lawsuit contends that he was singled out for mistreatment based on his religion and national background. Mr. Ashcroft and Mr. Mueller, his lawsuit says, implemented the policies that led to the abuse and condoned it.

The two officials say that they are immune from suit, a contention rejected by the federal appeals court in Manhattan last year, at least at the most preliminary stage of the case. [***] In the Supreme Court, the officials argued that Mr. Iqbal’s assertions that they were responsible for any abuses he suffered were speculative and lacked supporting factual allegations. [***] [poorly written] [the “they” is AG Ashcroft and/or FBI director Mueller]

There was general agreement among the justices that the bar for starting a lawsuit, however low, must at least include plausibility. But the justices seemed divided over whether it was conceivable that the defendants here created or condoned a policy rooted in unlawful discrimination. [***]

Justice David H. Souter said he considered plausible the claim “that the attorney general or the director of the F.B.I. was establishing a policy centered on people with the same characteristics as the hijackers.”

Solicitor General Gregory G. Garre, who represented the two officials, said such a characterization of the policy merely described “a perfectly lawful law enforcement program.”

Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg suggested that a 2003 report from the Justice Department’s inspector general may “lend some plausibility” to Mr. Iqbal’s claims. The report found serious abuses by the facility’s personnel. [***]

Mr. Garre urged the justices to ignore the report, saying it was outside the scope of the litigation. But he said the report had made findings helpful to his clients’ contention that their own actions, at least, were lawful.

Justice Stephen G. Breyer asked a hypothetical question: would a plaintiff be allowed to pursue a lawsuit against the president of Coca-Cola on the bare accusation that the president had personally put mice in soda bottles? [***]

Other justices engaged the question, considering whether such a lawsuit would be subject to sanctions on the grounds that it was frivolous and whether the company’s president would have to submit to questioning under oath at a deposition.

“How are we supposed to judge whether we think it’s more unlikely that the president of Coca-Cola would take certain actions,” Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. asked Mr. Iqbal’s lawyer, Alexander A. Reinert, “as opposed to the attorney general of the United States?”

Mr. Reinert said that the answer was not to require more detailed accusations from his client but to require the defendants to provide evidence to establish whether they bore responsibility for what happened and whether they are entitled to immunity.

Mr. Garre countered that no such inquiry was needed because “common experience shows” that the attorney general and F.B.I. director “simply aren’t involved” in “granular decisions” about whom to detain and under what conditions. [***]

Justice John Paul Stevens suggested that he was uneasy about lightly letting claims against high officials proceed, mentioning his majority opinion in Clinton v. Jones, the 1997 decision that allowed Paula Jones’s sexual harassment case against President Bill Clinton to go forward. A prediction in that decision about the burden the suit would place on the president — “it appears to us highly unlikely to occupy any substantial amount of petitioner’s time” — turned out to be incorrect.

Mr. Garre said the court’s decision in the case argued Wednesday, Ashcroft v. Iqbal, No. 07-1015, would have a broad impact. The appeals court, he said, had provided “a blueprint for civil plaintiffs who are challenging the implementation of important law enforcement policies to subject the attorney general, the director of the F.B.I. or other high-level officials to civil discovery based on conclusory and general and inadequate allegations.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

U.S. Proposes Going Ashore to Hunt Pirates

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/11nations.html
December 11, 2008
U.S. Proposes Going Ashore to Hunt Pirates
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR [bush white house] [NSC deputies level most likely] [perhaps some principals’ attention] [piracy in Somalia and environs] [increasing problem] [a murky plan to attack them from the landward side?] [I can see why it’s sort of attractive but think of the potential downsides] [what if US troops get captured by brigands or jihadis in Somalia?] [Somalia is a failed state with all that implies] [anarchy writ large] [use psci469b] [***]
UNITED NATIONS — In an effort to curb piracy off Somalia’s coast, the United States began circulating a Security Council resolution on Wednesday that would significantly

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/11nations.html
December 11, 2008
U.S. Proposes Going Ashore to Hunt Pirates
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR [bush white house] [NSC deputies level most likely] [perhaps some principals’ attention] [piracy in Somalia and environs] [increasing problem] [a murky plan to attack them from the landward side?] [I can see why it’s sort of attractive but think of the potential downsides] [what if US troops get captured by brigands or jihadis in Somalia?] [Somalia is a failed state with all that implies] [anarchy writ large] [use psci469b] [***]
UNITED NATIONS — In an effort to curb piracy off Somalia’s coast, the United States began circulating a Security Council resolution on Wednesday that would significantly beef up interdiction efforts by permitting foreign forces to attack pirate bases on land. [would it have to be voted on in the UN council?] [doesn’t that telegraph what’s coming] [doesn’t that in turn increase the odds that bad guys—not just the pirates—set up patrols to catch Western troops?] [***]

Until now all military action has been focused on naval measures, so the proposal to carry the fight ashore is an escalation opposed by some countries skittish about sovereignty issues. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected at the Security Council early next week to engage other foreign ministers from member states on piracy, among other matters.

The United States envoy Alejandro D. Wolff said that given the threat the pirates pose to international navigation and to the government of Somalia, “We will leave no stone unturned in dealing with this issue.” Any military action on land would be undertaken with the agreement of Somalia’s government, he said.

The Somalian ambassador to the United Nations could not be reached for comment, but the beleaguered government has generally supported any action against the pirates.

Diplomats who have seen the American draft said it speaks of taking “all necessary measures ashore in Somalia,” including air attacks, to prevent piracy. It also calls for the creation of a central clearing house in the region for information about the pirates and discourages the payment of ransom for captured ships. [****]

Opposition came on two grounds. Some diplomats said the Security Council had not done enough to bring stability to Somalia, which they called the root cause of the problem. U. Joy Ogwe, the Nigerian ambassador, said that while African states supported measures to fight piracy, “It is because we are not engaged on the ground that we see so much threat on the seas.”

In addition, some opponents said enough concessions had already been made in allowing foreign powers to encroach on Somalia’s territorial waters.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

A Spy CEO for Obama

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/10/AR2008121002947.html
A Spy CEO for Obama
By David Ignatius
Thursday, December 11, 2008; A25 [oped] [columnist] [why Obama could use a spy CEO] [wasn’t the DNI supposed to be that, in effect?] [***]
What should President-elect Barack Obama do about the intelligence community? He has appointed the other top members of his national security team, but intrigue still surrounds his choices for director of national intelligence and director of the CIA.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/10/AR2008121002947.html
A Spy CEO for Obama
By David Ignatius
Thursday, December 11, 2008; A25 [oped] [columnist] [why Obama could use a spy CEO] [wasn’t the DNI supposed to be that, in effect?] [***]
What should President-elect Barack Obama do about the intelligence community? He has appointed the other top members of his national security team, but intrigue still surrounds his choices for director of national intelligence and director of the CIA. [***] Prospective nominees are caught in a rumor mill that's worthy of Beirut.

As usual with anything involving intelligence, the left and the right are trading blows -- with the professional spooks caught in the middle. The only people who looked really happy at the CIA Christmas party last week were the journalists, who were feasting on the hors d'oeuvres and spicy gossip. [***]

Rather than rush to answer "who" questions, Obama should spend some time thinking about what he wants from the intelligence agencies -- and whether the structure that's in place makes sense. [***]More than any part of the government, the intelligence community needs good management, but that requires more clarity about the mission.

Administrations that don't know what they want from intelligence often pick the wrong people. Under Bill Clinton, for example, the clamor for a conservative Democrat led to the appointment of James Woolsey -- a smart lawyer, but someone with so little White House access he might as well have communicated by carrier pigeon. Clinton's next choice was John Deutch, who wasn't sure he wanted the job and, by most accounts, did it poorly. George W. Bush made a string of mistakes with intelligence, but among the worst was his appointment of Porter Goss, a former congressman who further demoralized a battered agency. [***]

The "what" questions are crucial now because the intelligence community is still reeling from a messy reorganization in 2006. [actually, as Ignatius surely knows—if he ever read my NSC book—the IRTPA was December 2004] [reforms are still being hammered out but the reform legislation and major amendment to the 1947 NSA was IRTPA] [***] That ill-considered "reform" created a big new DNI bureaucracy while leaving everything else intact. The result was like a lumpy pudding. The CIA has gotten the brunt of the DNI's often duplicative supervision, partly because the other big intelligence agencies (the FBI, the NSA, etc.) are all protected by Cabinet officers. [***]

The DNI's hand got heavier in July with a new executive order that specifies his authority -- especially to second-guess the CIA. The spy world is now in a dither about a new directive that would allow the DNI to designate a non-CIA person as his representative in foreign capitals, gutting the authority of the local chief of station. These bureaucratic machinations have left foreign intelligence chiefs wondering who's in charge. [***]

Should the Obama administration continue the DNI structure? The answer is probably yes, because yet another reorganization would drive everyone bonkers. But what should this intelligence czar do? In a perfect world, he would be the Warren Buffett of intelligence. That is, the DNI would be the chief executive of a diverse portfolio of intelligence agencies. The director would maintain accountability and quality control but let the agency heads run their businesses.

What's needed is an experienced, first-rate manager "who is less interested in briefing the president in the morning than in ensuring that the community has the best tools and processes to make the PDB [President's Daily Brief] a world-class product," says one former top-level intelligence official. [as first priority I agree] [second priority to make NIEs top level] [***]

I would add that the left-right slugfest -- in which liberals stress accountability and conservatives emphasize performance -- is wrong. The intelligence community needs more of both, urgently. [***]

To avoid duplicating functions, it would make sense to move analysis into the DNI's shop -- and let a leaner, more aggressive CIA focus on spying. [absolutely] [and I sort of hoped that followed when IRTPA put NIC in ODNI] [why has CIA kept the PDB?] [that’s nutty] [***] "We should be thinking about CIA the way the British think about MI6, with a career intelligence professional at the head who has a fixed term that transcends elections," the former top official argues.

The Great Mentioner (whom we pundits consult about who's being "mentioned" for top jobs) continues to spin out names for intelligence posts: Former CIA officer and Obama intelligence transition chief John Brennan was thought to be a likely CIA director until he was vaporized by left-wing opposition. Retired Adm. Dennis Blair is a leading candidate for DNI, but some wonder whether the community needs yet another ex-military official. Rep. Jane Harman gets high marks for strong oversight, but some worry about the Porter Goss problem of appointing a politician. [***]

The right answer? Find the Buffett-like manager who can create a truly great U.S. intelligence system at DNI, then let that person pick a CIA director who will be nonpolitical. [agreed] [***] And then, as the late CIA Director Richard Helms liked to tell his trench-coated colleagues, "Let's get on with it."
The writer is co-host of PostGlobal, an online discussion of international issues. His e-mail address is davidignatius@washpost.com.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Hail the Autocrat

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/10/AR2008121003030.html
Hail the Autocrat
A plausible plan to rescue the automakers
Thursday, December 11, 2008; A24 [editorial] [the auto bailout] [appears to be 14 billion though some GOP senators filibustering?] [in fairness, the bill is only a bridge loan to get GM and Chrysler through a couple of months by which time they are supposed to develop a new business model] [not great, but may be the little that can be accomplished so quickly] [***]
THE IMPENDING collapse of at least two of the Big Three U.S. automakers, General Motors and Chrysler, is not the sort of crisis that lends itself to a formulaic response. If

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/10/AR2008121003030.html
Hail the Autocrat
A plausible plan to rescue the automakers
Thursday, December 11, 2008; A24 [editorial] [the auto bailout] [appears to be 14 billion though some GOP senators filibustering?] [in fairness, the bill is only a bridge loan to get GM and Chrysler through a couple of months by which time they are supposed to develop a new business model] [not great, but may be the little that can be accomplished so quickly] [***]
THE IMPENDING collapse of at least two of the Big Three U.S. automakers, General Motors and Chrysler, is not the sort of crisis that lends itself to a formulaic response. If this were a different, more prosperous time, the best option might be to let the companies file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and work out a new business plan under a judge's supervision -- a bit of creative destruction. [****]

But under current circumstances -- a historic credit crisis and rapidly accelerating economic downturn -- the destruction wrought by a sudden, simultaneous bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler might not be at all creative. Such an outcome is worth trying to avoid, even at some cost to taxpayers, as long as the aid is tightly conditioned on a credible reorganization plan. [***]But Congress should not use this crisis to pile all sorts of new mandates on the car companies, such as overly specific fuel efficiency targets. Here's the needle that the government must thread: Fund a second chance for the companies, without either leaving them free to mismanage themselves into another bailout or putting federal officials in charge of microscopic business decisions. [***] [I think the boards of directors must be fired] [temporary receivership and appoint a Steve Jobs to create a business plan for the new iCar] [ala T. Friedman’s oped a couple weeks ago] [***]

Under a plan proposed by the Bush administration and congressional leaders, and approved by the House last night, GM and Chrysler would get a $15 billion loan to fund their operations until March 31, 2009. (Ford has said it has enough cash for the time being.) In return, the companies would submit to the supervision of a presidential appointee, informally known as the "car czar" or -- as we prefer -- the "autocrat." The autocrat would then make sure that the carmakers, the United Auto Workers, bondholders, parts suppliers and other stakeholders contribute the sacrifices needed to make the two companies viable now and competitive in the future. If March 31 arrives and there is no deal, the autocrat must call the loans and consign the companies to their fates. [****]

The plan does draw a clear bottom line for the companies: They would have to chart a course to positive net present value, meaning that their reasonably foreseeable cash flows would exceed the government's investment. [***]A weakness of the proposal, however, is that it does not spell out the actual concessions to be made. We don't see how the companies can ensure their viability unless creditors convert much of their debt to equity -- and the UAW both takes equity in lieu of payments to its retiree health fund and surrenders its current wage and benefit advantage over nonunion foreign-owned factories. This shortcoming should be addressed as the bill makes its way through a skeptical House and Senate.

What has emerged so far is hardly a risk-free framework. Once federal dollars start to flow, it will be that much harder to force GM, Chrysler and the UAW to keep any promises they made to secure the cash. But the fact that the March 31 deadline is firm and enforceable by a single official gives the various stakeholders relatively little wiggle room -- and makes this a fair substitute for actual bankruptcy. Appropriately modified, it might work.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Darfur, Another Year Later

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/opinion/11thu1.html
December 11, 2008
Editorial
Darfur, Another Year Later
[editorial] [another year, another year of frustrations in Darfur] [a partially failed state] [***]
In January, President Bush said this about Darfur: “My administration called this genocide. Once you label it genocide, you obviously have to do something about it.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/opinion/11thu1.html
December 11, 2008
Editorial
Darfur, Another Year Later
[editorial] [another year, another year of frustrations in Darfur] [a partially failed state] [***]
In January, President Bush said this about Darfur: “My administration called this genocide. Once you label it genocide, you obviously have to do something about it.”

Yet, last week — nearly one year later — this is what the International Criminal Court prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, told the United Nations Security Council about Darfur: “Genocide continues. Rapes in and around the camps continue. Humanitarian assistance is still hindered. More than 5,000 displaced persons die each month.” How can this still be? [***]

The world has long declared its revulsion at the atrocities committed by Sudan’s government and its proxy militias in Darfur and done almost nothing to stop it. [**] It took years of political wrangling to get the Security Council to approve a strengthened peacekeeping force with deployment set for Jan. 1. More than 11 months later, the Security Council has managed to send only 10,000 of the promised 26,000 peacekeepers. Large-scale military attacks against populated areas continue.

Much of the fault lies with Sudan’s cynically obstructionist president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir. But Russia and especially China — which has major oil interests in Sudan — have shamefully enabled him. So have African leaders. The United States and its allies also bear responsibility for temporizing, [***]most recently over how to transport troops and equipment to the conflict zone.

President Bush said on Wednesday that the United States was prepared to provide airlift. So why has this taken so long?

Now, the war crimes charges Mr. Moreno-Ocampo has brought against the Sudanese leader for his role in masterminding Darfur’s horrors (the burning of villages, bombing of schools and systematic rape of woman) may — may — be changing the calculus in Khartoum. [***]

Mr. Bashir recently agreed to peace talks mediated by Qatar and pledged to punish anyone guilty of crimes in Darfur. Until proved otherwise, the world must assume that all of this is theater designed to fool the Security Council into delaying his reckoning at the Hague. [***]

The African Union and the Arab League, seeking to protect one of their own, are pressing the Security Council to delay a formal indictment and arrest warrant, saying it would hurt chances for a negotiated peace. [***]The Bush administration has threatened to block such a move and we hope it stands firm. President-elect Barack Obama and his advisers have called for strong action to end the Darfur genocide. We hope the next administration moves quickly. But have no doubt: Fixing Darfur, which is increasingly engulfed in inter-rebel warfare, gets harder by the day. The indictment, expected in February, is undeniably deserved. United Nations officials say that up to 300,000 people have been killed in the Darfur conflict and that 2.7 million have been driven from their homes.

Still it might be worth delaying if Mr. Bashir called off his murderous militias, stopped obstructing deployment of a strengthened peacekeeping force and began serious peace talks. The world is waiting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

U.S. Transition Hampers Talks on Climate Change

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/europe/11climate.html
December 11, 2008
U.S. Transition Hampers Talks on Climate Change
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL [Poland] [EU llower 27] [global economic meltdown] [how it affects] [global climate change] [a critical mass was building earlier this year to do something finally about the West’s addiction to fossil fuels] [that is not jeopardized by the economic travails] [use it text] [now little things such as the transition from one administration to the next has stymied efforts to approach climate change] [****]
POZNAN, Poland — As ministers from 189 countries gather here in the coal mining regions of Poland to hammer out a new climate treaty, progress is being sorely hampered by the transition under way in American politics, [***]delegates and experts

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/europe/11climate.html
December 11, 2008
U.S. Transition Hampers Talks on Climate Change
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL [Poland] [EU llower 27] [global economic meltdown] [how it affects] [global climate change] [a critical mass was building earlier this year to do something finally about the West’s addiction to fossil fuels] [that is not jeopardized by the economic travails] [use it text] [now little things such as the transition from one administration to the next has stymied efforts to approach climate change] [****]
POZNAN, Poland — As ministers from 189 countries gather here in the coal mining regions of Poland to hammer out a new climate treaty, progress is being sorely hampered by the transition under way in American politics, [***]delegates and experts here said.

No one expected a team representing President-elect Barack Obama to attend these meetings — he has said there is but one president at a time, and the United States is still represented here by the Bush administration. But the anticipation of his presidency has left this critical meeting in a bit of limbo. [***]

Mr. Obama has called climate change “a matter of urgency,” promising to seek legislation to cut greenhouse gas emissions sharply and to increase United States participation in global climate initiatives. But many countries are still waiting to size up Mr. Obama’s actual environmental commitment before making bold moves of their own. [***]

“It has affected the meeting in a fairly significant way,” said Gus Silva-Chavez, a policy expert at the Environmental Defense Fund in Washington, who has been observing the closed negotiations. “A lot of people think: ‘This is not the time to put our cards on the table. Let’s wait for the new administration. Why agree to anything now?’ ”

This problem is exacerbated by the fact that the European Union is itself struggling to finalize its own climate package this week — hampered by the global economic turndown — and so its delegates have been unusually quiet here. [***]

“We have a sense of urgency, but you don’t see any strong decisions” being made here, said Elenita Dano, a member of the Philippines delegation. “Political developments in the U.S. and the E.U. are holding us hostage, and we have no choice but to wait.”

The current negotiations are meant to culminate in a treaty in Copenhagen in December 2009, to take effect in 2013. It will replace industrialized nations’ commitments to reduce emissions under the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. [***]The United States never ratified that agreement, and its binding terms do not apply to China, India, and other emerging powers that are projected to account for nearly all growth in emissions in the next few decades.

So far Mr. Obama has outlined a number of broad policies but provided few specifics or a timetable for implementing his ideas. He could propose a climate bill, but the kind of cap-and-trade system preferred by Mr. Obama for greenhouse gases would, by many estimates, take at least a year or two to hash out even with a Democratic majority in both houses of Congress.

“The fear is this could become a Clinton health plan, trying to do too much too soon, and ending up with nothing,” [***]said Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House staff member who is now with the National Commission on Energy Policy.

On the other hand, short-term measures that would be easier to enact, like energy initiatives in an economic stimulus spending package, could be perceived by Europe and China, particularly, as insufficient evidence of meaningful change.

Even at the highest levels, officials here are awaiting results: “Another climate treaty without the U.S. doesn’t make a lot of sense,” said Yvo de Boer, head of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the meeting’s sponsor.

There are ample signs that the United States can do little of substance in these talks because of the presidential transition. In an interview several days ago, James L. Connaughton, the chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, said the Bush administration climate team was committed to keeping all options open for the incoming Obama administration — in essence saying that the American negotiators in Poznan had little room to make commitments. [about as much as Obama could hope for given the Bush administration’s odd stances on climate change and the GOP’s even more in denial than the bush administration] [***]

“We have taken ideas very extensively from many people who are currently senior advisers to the Obama team on how to think through creative future approaches,” he said.

Still, the conference has achieved a few important goals. The delegates have agreed on a method for essentially paying countries and communities for preserving forests, through a system of carbon credits. Twenty percent of man-made carbon-dioxide emissions are attributed to deforestation. The delegates are also nearing agreement on a fund, conceptualized a year ago, to help developing nations adapt to climate change. [***]

Expectations for the talks here were always muted, because Poznan was meant to be a midpoint meeting that would lead to a new climate treaty by next December.

Negotiators may yet be on track to meet that goal. “If the pace picks up we could get an agreement by Copenhagen,” said Angela Anderson, director of the International Global Warming Campaign of the Pew Environment Group.

On Thursday, government ministers arrive for two days of meetings to work out a final set of documents, to guide the process through the next year. A Congressional delegation, as always, is observing the talks, with senator John Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts, assigned to report back to Mr. Obama.

Against the backdrop of a global recession, there were signs that delegates of industrialized nations wanted to back away from ambitious emission reduction targets that had been discussed last year, [***]based on research by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Under the panel’s scenarios, industrialized countries would have to reduce emissions by 25 to 40 percent by 2020 to set the world on a track to avert disastrous warming, numbers that went in and out of the draft proposal over the course of Wednesday. Countries like Italy have suggested they might have a hard time meeting previous emissions reductions goals in the current economic climate. [***]

In addition, a group of developing countries called the G-77 complained that their proposals to help poor countries combat climate change generally fell on deaf ears. “We got no support from developed countries whether in technology transfer or finances,” [***] said Tasneem Essop, of the World Wide Fund for Nature of South Africa.

Such hopes and frustrations presaged great pressure on the new American administration. [***]Said Jake Schmidt of the Natural Resources Defense Council, who participated in a panel discussion here: “Clearly one of the major stumbling blocks has been a lack of leadership at the U.S. level, and that’s about to change,” he said.

But the incoming Obama administration is currently weighing its options, including whether there should be a climate czar, or cabinet-level environment position, said a person who is familiar with the transition. [***] [appointed czars do not have especially good records of success] [see Center for A New American Security preliminary report on NSA] [***]

Domestically, the person said, the administration is looking toward a three-pronged approach. First there is a stimulus package that will include “green” initiatives like retrofitting buildings with better insulation. Then there is an energy bill that will include components like new fuel standards and tax breaks for investments in environmental technology and renewable energy.

Finally, there is the cap-and-trade system, in which companies are assigned emissions limits and must effectively buy permits to exceed them.

Dirk Forrister, the chairman of the White House Climate Change Task Force under the Clinton administration, said such a complicated program probably could not become operational before 2014.

Tim Wirth, head of the United Nations Foundation, based in Washington, said that finalizing a new climate program would take time, but that the new administration should immediately start creating the “building blocks” — forging agreements with countries like China to cooperate on energy efficiency.

“Everybody is waiting for the U.S. cavalry to come over the ridge,” he said. “We’re a major component but not the only component.”
Andrew C. Revkin contributed reporting from New York.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Unexpected Drop in China’s Imports and Exports

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/business/11yuan.html
December 11, 2008
Unexpected Drop in China’s Imports and Exports
By ANDREW JACOBS and DAVID BARBOZA [China] [PRC] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice in recent weeks] [it’s now spread to Asia, Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [here China finds its exports and imports dropping precipitously—why is that surprising?] [use psci350] [use ir text] [*****]
BEIJING — Chinese exports registered their largest drop in nearly a decade last month,

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/business/11yuan.html
December 11, 2008
Unexpected Drop in China’s Imports and Exports
By ANDREW JACOBS and DAVID BARBOZA [China] [PRC] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice in recent weeks] [it’s now spread to Asia, Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [here China finds its exports and imports dropping precipitously—why is that surprising?] [use psci350] [use ir text] [*****]
BEIJING — Chinese exports registered their largest drop in nearly a decade last month, suggesting that the global recession could be far worse than many economists had previously predicted. [***]

According to statistics released by the Chinese government Wednesday, exports fell 2.2 percent from November 2007 to November 2008 — the largest year-over-year monthly decline since April 1999. [***]

Even at a time of increasingly dour economic news, the Chinese trade numbers stunned many economists. They struck an ominous note for China, where labor unrest has increased markedly as the economy has slowed in the last month.

Many analysts had anticipated that the monthly trade figures would show China’s export machine slowing along with the global economy, but few had expected it to slip into reverse. In October, exports surged 19.2 percent year-over-year. [***]

“We were expecting a slowdown, but the magnitude is a bit shocking,” said Wang Tao, an analyst at UBS Securities.

Most worrisome, China’s economic dynamism of the last 20 years has been powered by the twin engines of exports and foreign investment. But in other sobering news, the government said that direct foreign investment fell 36.5 percent from a year earlier in November. [***]

In recent months, evaporating export demand had already forced thousands of factories to close in the Pearl River Delta of Southern China. Tens of thousands of jobs have disappeared, leading to protests by unemployed workers demanding back pay.

Late last month, President Hu Jintao warned that the global financial crisis was threatening to undermine three decades of head-spinning expansion. “China is under growing tension from its large population, limited resources and environmental problems, and needs faster reform of its economic growth pattern to achieve sustainable development,” [***]he said in a speech published in the Communist Party newspaper, People’s Daily.

Analysts say the sharp export slowdown could make it more difficult for Beijing to stimulate the economy, and could lead to the closure of more factories in coastal areas. [***]

China’s slowing exports will also be another sharp blow to global growth. Together the trade figures strongly suggest that China will not be a savior to the global economy, taking up the slack from the slumping United States, Europe and Japan, as some had hoped. [***]Indeed, when combined with further signs of a slowing economy in Japan, the picture of Asia, once the fastest-growing continent, becomes one of spreading economic gloom.

Slowing exports will put added pressure on the Chinese government. Already the stock market and real estate markets have plummeted, industrial production is in decline and thousands of factories are being closed. [***]

Just last month, officials in Beijing announced a $586 billion stimulus package. In recent weeks, the government has also slashed interest rates, cut taxes on stock trades and announced other measures aimed at lifting domestic consumption, in the hopes that it will replace falling exports.

Imports to China also plunged sharply last month, falling 17.9 percent and widening China’s trade surplus to a record $40 billion, from $35.2 billion in October.

After the trade figures were released, China National Radio reported that the government was vowing to expand spending and cut taxes further next year in an effort to spur job creation and bolster agriculture, social security, education and small and medium-size enterprises. [***]

Beijing will also seek to ensure “healthy and stable” growth of the nation’s property markets, which have slowed greatly in recent months.

But with leaks springing up all over China’s economy, it is unclear where the government can hold back economic, and potentially political, upheaval.

The government’s decision in recent weeks to allow the Chinese currency, the yuan, to fall against the dollar after a long period of appreciation seems to be a signal that the government is moving to shore up its exporters, by making their goods cheaper and, therefore, more competitive. [***]

That — as well as China’s increasing trade imbalance — could signal greater tension ahead with the United States. In the one piece of seemingly positive news, China’s producer price index, a measure of inflation at the factory level, fell to its lowest rate in two years, according to the government. [***]That figure — 2 percent in November — rose 6.6 percent in October. In August, when that number hit 10.1 percent, the government was focused on stemming the threat of inflation and moderating China’s breakneck growth.

In just four months, the situation has changed startlingly. And lower imports suggest falling demand and greater consumer and business fear.

Exports, meanwhile, are a mainstay of China’s economy; by one measure they make up 40 percent of gross domestic product. [***]While some experts dispute that figure and question other official economic statistics from Beijing, analysts say the slumping demand for Chinese goods is likely to pull down the nation’s growth rate, which was 9 percent in the third quarter, close to or even below the 7 percent figure that many Chinese economists contend is the minimum for maintaining social stability.

Qu Hongbin, the chief China economist at HSBC, said he expected things to get worse in the coming months as the global recession further saps the demand for Chinese goods. He said exports could fall as much as 19 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

“Combined with cooling property markets, this points to the rising risk of a hard landing,” he said in a statement. “It’s official: as the world’s workshop, China will suffer as the global downturn deepens.”

Since it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, China’s exports have quadrupled, helping transform it into the world’s fourth largest economy. [***]

In a survey of more than a dozen analysts last month, no one predicted that imports would decline. The drop in exports stretched across all major trade commodities with steel leading the downward spiral.

Exports to all of China’s trading partners suffered, with those to the United States down 6.1 percent. In October, they were up 12.4 percent.
Andrew Jacobs reported from Beijing and David Barboza from Shanghai.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

A Massacre in Congo, Despite Nearby Support

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/africa/11congo.html
December 11, 2008
A Massacre in Congo, Despite Nearby Support
By LYDIA POLGREEN [Congo] [DRC] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved at time] [is the Hutu-Tutsi blood bath flowing into Congo?] [incredibly bad situation] [******]
KIWANJA, Congo — At last the bullets had stopped, and François Kambere Siviri made a dash for the door. After hiding all night from firefights between rebels and a

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/africa/11congo.html
December 11, 2008
A Massacre in Congo, Despite Nearby Support
By LYDIA POLGREEN [Congo] [DRC] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved at time] [is the Hutu-Tutsi blood bath flowing into Congo?] [incredibly bad situation] [******]
KIWANJA, Congo — At last the bullets had stopped, and François Kambere Siviri made a dash for the door. After hiding all night from firefights between rebels and a government-allied militia over this small but strategic town, [***]he was desperate to get to the latrine a few feet away.

“Pow, pow, pow,” said his widowed mother, Ludia Kavira Nzuva, recounting how the rebels killed her 25-year-old son just outside her front door. [***]As they abandoned his bloodied corpse, she said, one turned to her and declared, “Voilà, here is your gift.”

In little more than 24 hours, at least 150 people would be dead, most of them young men, summarily executed by the rebels last month as they tightened their grip over parts of eastern Congo, [***]according to witnesses and human-rights investigators.

And yet, as the killings took place, a contingent of about 100 United Nations peacekeepers was less than a mile away, struggling to understand what was happening outside the gates of its base. The peacekeepers were short of equipment and men, United Nations officials said, and they were focusing on evacuating frightened aid workers and searching for a foreign journalist who had been kidnapped. Already overwhelmed, officials said, they had no intelligence capabilities or even an interpreter who could speak the necessary languages. [***]

The peacekeepers said they had no idea that the killings were taking place until it was all over.

The executions in Kiwanja are a study in the unfettered cruelty meted out by the armed groups fighting for power and resources in eastern Congo. But the events are also a textbook example of the continuing failure of the world’s largest international peacekeeping force, [***] which has a mandate to protect the Congolese people from brutality. [indeed] [but also another story in the horrors of failed states] [Somalia, Afghanistan?, Congo, Nigeria?] [***]

In this instance, the failure came from a mix of poor communication and staffing, inadequate equipment, intelligence breakdowns and spectacularly bad luck, said Lt. Col. H. S. Brar, the commander of the Indian peacekeepers based in Kiwanja.

But the killings and the stumbling response to the rebel advance were symptomatic of problems that have plagued the United Nations peacekeeping force in Congo for years, said Anneke Van Woudenberg, a senior researcher for Human Rights Watch, who investigated the slayings this month. The rebel onslaught was even led by a commander who is wanted on war crimes charges by the International Criminal Court.

“Kiwanja was a disaster for everyone,” Ms. Van Woudenberg said. “The people were betrayed not just by rebels who committed terrible war crimes against them but by the international community that failed to protect them.”

In the past year alone, hundreds of thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes as the rebels, led by a renegade army general, have waged a fierce insurgency against the government and its allied militias.

In an interview, the rebel general, Laurent Nkunda, denied that his troops had executed civilians here, accusing militias allied with the government of trying to make his rebel movement look bad. [***]

“We cannot kill the population,” he said. “It is not in our behavior to kill and to rape.”

But extensive interviews with victims, aid workers and human-rights investigators showed that Mr. Nkunda’s men carried out a door-to-door military operation over two days in which young men and others were executed.

The trouble began on Oct. 28, when Congolese Army troops fled the town, fearful of the advance of Mr. Nkunda’s troops.

The soldiers, who had already been routed by Mr. Nkunda’s men farther south, looted and raped as they ran, taking everything of value and even forcing some residents to help them carry the spoils, according to witnesses and investigators. Fearful residents had to choose between two bad options: follow the rampaging army or wait to see what the rebels might bring.

With the soldiers long gone, Mr. Nkunda’s troops took the towns of Kiwanja and Rutshuru without firing a shot. Immediately, they ordered the residents who remained to torch sprawling camps that held about 30,000 people displaced by earlier fighting, proclaiming that it was now safe for the camp dwellers to return to their villages, witnesses said.

“They said there was security, so everyone should go home,” said François Hazumutima, a retired teacher who had been living in a nearby camp. “But none of us felt safe.”

A week later, on Nov. 4, a group of militia fighters known as the Mai Mai carried out a surprise attack on Kiwanja. But the rebels soon routed the Mai Mai — and ordered all residents to leave. [***]

The soldiers then went house to house, saying they were searching for militia fighters who stayed behind to fight. But many residents who stayed were scared their houses would be looted or were too old or infirm to flee, according to witnesses. Others had simply not gotten the message to leave.

The rebels came to the door of a 25-year-old trader, banging and threatening to shoot their way in.

“There were gunshots everywhere,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. “They asked for money. I gave them $200.”

He then watched in impotent horror as the rebels went to his 22-year-old brother’s house next door. The man, a student, had no money to offer them. The soldiers ordered him to lie on the ground. They stabbed him in the neck with their bayonets and shot him in the head, he said.

“They said, ‘If you don’t have money, you are Mai Mai,’ ” he said. “Everyone who was young was destined to die.”

Muwavita Mukangusi said she was out in the fields farming with her husband when the shooting started. Their three young daughters were at home, so Ms. Mukangusi ran back. Her husband hid in the fields, returning only at nightfall. The next morning the rebels came.

“They took my husband,” she said, her eyes rimmed in red. “Because I had $50 in the house, I took $25 to them. But it was not enough. I added $25. It was still not enough. They accused him of being Mai Mai.”

The rebels beat him, she said, then forced him to the ground and shot him in the back of the head.

According to witnesses and clips of video shot at the time, Jean Bosco Ntaganda, Mr. Nkunda’s chief of staff, commanded the troops that carried out the killings. Mr. Ntaganda, whose nom de guerre is the Terminator, is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes committed while he was commanding a different armed group earlier in the war.

Meanwhile, confusion reigned at the nearby peacekeepers’ base. The company of soldiers sits in a spot that is decidedly not strategic, nestled in a valley that is highly vulnerable to incoming fire and has a poor vantage point from which to keep tabs on the surrounding area.

The company’s only translator left the base on Oct. 26 and was not replaced until more than two weeks later. But even in normal times, communications are limited. To make logistical arrangements, the peacekeepers depend largely on civilian staff members who work normal business hours and have weekends off. Unable to speak to most of the population and with almost no intelligence capabilities, Colonel Brar groped his way through a fog of rumor, speculation and misinformation.

“During this whole time, there was an informational vacuum,” Colonel Brar said.

With just one company of soldiers and three armored vehicles, the colonel’s peacekeepers were overmatched, he said. Patrols had to be aborted because rebels and militia fighters opened fire with heavy weapons that could pierce the vehicles’ cladding. The peacekeepers said they could not tell the difference between the different armed groups and were fearful of firing on civilians.

The colonel said he was juggling orders from headquarters in Goma to rescue stranded aid workers and search for a kidnapped foreign journalist. Sending out too many patrols would leave no one to protect the thousands of civilians gathered around the base, trapped in the vulnerable valley. [***]

Making matters worse, the peacekeepers’ armored vehicles are largely unable to handle the muddy terrain of the neighborhoods hit hardest by the violence. It was not until the fighting was over that the full horror of the killings was discovered in houses stuffed with dead bodies.

“We launched patrols in areas we thought there would be clashes,” he explained. “But we could not be everywhere at once.”

As the shooting died down, residents said they found streets littered with bodies. Most, but not all, were young men and boys. One health care worker, who spoke anonymously for fear of reprisals, helped the Red Cross recover the bodies.

“Some were killed with bullets, others bayoneted,” the worker said. Among the injured sent to the regional hospital, the worker said, were “two women, one small girl of 9 years and one boy of 11 years.”

Witnesses said the rebels ordered that the bodies be buried quickly and far from the cemetery, to avoid leaving evidence for war crimes investigators.

“They did not want any mass graves,” said another man, who participated in the burials.

The worker said that by the end of Nov. 6, they had collected 150 bodies, the same toll reached by Human Rights Watch. The count could be higher still, he said, since the rebels have hampered efforts at a fuller accounting of the dead and missing.

Mr. Nkunda’s men continue to hold the town, as well as neighboring Rutshuru. Outwardly, calm has returned to the streets. But mothers have sent their sons packing because the rebels have been forcing men and boys to join them.

Mujawimana Nyiragasigwa said her 15-year-old son Jimia was snatched by soldiers in broad daylight last month. He had been out looking for work when the soldiers rounded him up, she said, and he has been missing for two and a half weeks.

“If I ever see him again, it will be by the grace of God,” she said.

Colonel Brar was clearly troubled by what happened here but said he and his troops did their best in an awful situation. [***]

“We did what we could,” he said. “Imagine if we had not been here. Many more could have died.”

Ms. Kavira Nzuva, whose son François was killed, said his death had hollowed out her life. Gaunt and hobbled at 67, she was forced to return to the fields to farm.

François had supported her with his photography business. He had wired her mud-walled house for electricity and paid the monthly bill. He had built her a new kitchen. She kept a thick album of pictures of him, a tall man always eager to strike a pose for the camera.
“He was my youngest child,” she said. “I don’t know how I will live without him.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Escapee Tells of Horrors in North Korean Prison Camp

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/10/AR2008121003855.html
Escapee Tells of Horrors in North Korean Prison Camp
By Blaine Harden
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, December 11, 2008; A01 [DPRK] [DPRK regime now acting typically obtuse] [their dear leader may be sick] [hard to know because so little info comes out of Stalinist regime] [but if true, this could presage a nasty purge as generals and others fight for top position] [reports now seem certain stroke happened a couple months ago] [one of the few refugees that escapes confirms horrendous conditions in DPRK] [followup] [******]
SEOUL -- In Camp No. 14, the North Korean political prison where Shin Dong-hyuk was

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/10/AR2008121003855.html
Escapee Tells of Horrors in North Korean Prison Camp
By Blaine Harden
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, December 11, 2008; A01 [DPRK] [DPRK regime now acting typically obtuse] [their dear leader may be sick] [hard to know because so little info comes out of Stalinist regime] [but if true, this could presage a nasty purge as generals and others fight for top position] [reports now seem certain stroke happened a couple months ago] [one of the few refugees that escapes confirms horrendous conditions in DPRK] [followup] [******]
SEOUL -- In Camp No. 14, the North Korean political prison where Shin Dong-hyuk was born and where he says he watched the hanging of his mother, [***]inmates never saw a picture of Kim Jong Il.

"I had no idea who he is," Shin said, referring to the leader whose photograph is displayed nearly everywhere in North Korea.

Inmates did not need to know the face of their "Dear Leader," as Kim is called. Behind electrified fences, they tended pigs, tanned leather, collected firewood and labored in mines until they died or were executed. [***]

The exception is Shin, who is 26 and lives in a small rented room here in Seoul. He is a thin, short, shy man, with quick, wary eyes, a baby face, and sinewy arms bowed from childhood labor. There are burn scars on his back and left arm from where he was tortured by fire at age 14, when he was unable to explain why his soon-to-be-hanged mother had tried to escape. The middle finger of his right hand is cut off at the first knuckle, punishment for accidentally dropping a sewing machine in the garment factory at his camp. [***]

There are 14,431 North Korean defectors living in South Korea, according to the latest government count. Shin is the only one known to have escaped to the South from a prison camp in the North. [***] [but stories abound] [refugees are notoriously bad sources of info as they tend to say what they think their host wants to hear] [but enough on DRPK has come out to know it’s arguably the worst hell hole on the planet] [***]

Shin's story could not be independently verified, but it has been vetted and vouched for by leading human rights activists and members of defector organizations in Seoul. They came to know Shin when he arrived in South Korea in 2005 and was hospitalized with post-traumatic stress disorder. [***]

"At first, I could not believe him because no one ever succeeded in the escape," said Kim Tae-jin, president of the Democracy Network Against North Korean Gulag and a defector from North Korea who spent a decade in another concentration camp there. The No. 15 camp where Kim was confined -- unlike Shin's No. 14 -- sometimes released political prisoners, as it did Kim, if they were "fully revolutionized." [***]

"I saw too many prisoners executed before my eyes for attempting to escape," said Kim. "No one made it out, except for Shin."

The U.S. government and human rights groups estimate that 150,000 to 200,000 people are now being held in the North's prison camps. Many of the camps can be seen in satellite images, but North Korea denies their existence. [***]

In recent weeks, Shin has been watching old films of the Allied liberation of Nazi concentration camps, which included scenes of bulldozers unearthing corpses that Adolf Hitler's collapsing Third Reich had tried to hide.

"It is just a matter of time before Kim Jong Il thinks of this," Shin said in an interview. "I hope that the United States, through pressure and persuasion, can convince Kim not to murder all those people in the camps."

Shin is the author of a grimly extraordinary book, "Escape to the Outside World."

It is illustrated with simple line drawings of his mother's hanging, the amputation of his finger, his torture by fire. There are black-and-white photographs of his scars, as well as drawings and a satellite photo of Camp No. 14. It is located in Kaechon, about 55 miles north of Pyongyang, [***]the capital of North Korea.

The book grew out of a diary he kept in the Seoul hospital while he was recovering from the nightmares and screaming bouts that were part of his adjustment.

It begins with the story of his birth in Camp No. 14 to parents whose union was arranged by prison guards. As a reward for excellent work as a mechanic, his father was given the woman who became Shin's mother. Shin lived with her until he was 12, when he was taken away to work with other children. [***]

In the book, Shin describes the "common and almost routine" savagery of the camp: the rape of his cousin by prison guards and the beating to death of a young girl found with five grains of unauthorized wheat in her pocket. [***]He once found three kernels of corn in a pile of cow dung, he writes. He picked them out, cleaned them off on his sleeve and ate them. "As miserable as it may seem, that was my lucky day," he writes.

Being the sole escapee in the capitalist South from the prison-camp horrors of the communist North has not made Shin a celebrity or afforded him much of a living. "Escape to the Outside World" has sold about 500 copies from its single Korean-language printing of 3,000. No edition in English is being undertaken, he said.

He is unemployed and worries about how to pay his $300-a-month rent. His defector stipend of $800 a month, which he had received from the South Korean government since arriving in Seoul 2 1/2 years ago, ended in August. [***]

Making money. Saving money. Dating. Loving another human being. These are all strange concepts that Shin has struggled -- and largely failed -- to understand.

"I never heard the word 'love' in the camp," he said. "I want to have a girlfriend, but I don't know how to get one. Two months ago, I found myself without any money. It suddenly occurred to me that I had to go out and support myself." [***]

Shin also struggles to understand why prosperous Koreans in the South seem so uninterested in and unmoved by the suffering of tens of thousands of fellow Koreans living in torment in the North's prisons. [***]

"I don't want to be critical of this country, but I would say that out of the total population of South Korea, only .001 percent has any real understanding of or interest in North Korea," Shin said. "Only a few decades ago, the South Koreans had their own human rights issues. But rapid growth and prosperity has made them forget." [***]

Shin may overstate the South's lack of concern about human rights in the North, but he has a point.

When South Korean President Lee Myung-bak was elected last year, only 3 percent of voters named North Korea as a primary concern. They were overwhelmingly interested in economic growth and higher salaries. [***]

South Koreans want reunification with the North, but not right away, polls show. They have seen the cost and messiness of German unification. [a generation of East Germany’s youth essentially turned out] [***] They worry about political collapse in the impoverished North and are afraid that dealing with it would lower their living standards, according to government officials and independent analysts.

For most of the past decade, South Korea's official "sunshine policy" toward the North was all but silent on human rights issues. Seoul gave Kim's government large annual gifts of fertilizer and made major economic investments -- with few strings attached.

Lee's government, which took power in February, has taken a harder line with North Korea, but a substantial portion of the public remains reluctant to condition assistance on issues such as prison camps, slave labor and torture.

Shin does not want vengeance. He'll settle for awareness.

"Kim Jong Il is a gangster," he said. "If we kill him, we will be just like him."

Instead, Shin wants South Koreans and the rest of the world to pay closer attention to what is happening to people still in those camps. [***]

To that end, he tells his awful story -- to anyone in South Korea who will listen, to human rights groups in Japan and, earlier this year, on a college tour of the United States.

An unforgettable -- almost unfathomable -- chapter of that story is about the execution of his mother, who was hanged in 1996, on the same day Shin's only brother was shot to death. Both killings, Shin writes in his book, occurred at Camp No. 14 in a kind of public square, [***]a place where he had seen many others executed.

Before he was taken to the square and ordered to watch them die, Shin said, he had spent seven months in an underground cell, where guards used torture to force him to talk about a supposed "family conspiracy" to escape from the camp. [***]

Since his mother hadn't told him about such a plan, Shin said, he was startled to hear of it. His torturers also surprised him by telling him, for the first time, why he and his family were in the camp. Two of his father's brothers had collaborated with South Korea during the Korean War and then fled to the South, the guards told him. His father was guilty because he was the brother of traitors. [***] Shin was guilty because he was his father's son.

As for the escape plan of his mother and brother, Shin knew nothing. Still, the guards wanted a confession.

As described in the book, they built a charcoal fire. Shin was stripped of his clothes. Ropes were tied to his arms and legs and secured to the ceiling of the cell. He was dangled over the fire. When he writhed away from the flame, a guard pierced his gut with a steel hook to hold him in place. He lost consciousness. [***]

Shin recovered in a cell with the help of a sickly older man who gave him half his food ration. Months later, when Shin walked out of the underground cell to the public square, he was joined by his father.

"When I saw that place, I thought my father and I would be executed," Shin said in the interview.

Instead, to his surprise, he became a spectator. His mother and brother were brought to the square. [***]

Watching his mother being hanged, Shin recalls, he was relieved it was her, not him.

"I felt she deserved to die," he said. "I was full of anger for the torture that I went through. I still am angry at her." [****] [how perverse is that?] [what sort of a regime does such perversions as a matter of course?]

Nine years later, Shin escaped. He was working in the camp's garment factory with an older prisoner who had seen the outside world and wanted to see it again. When they were collecting wood in a mountainous corner of the camp on Jan. 2, 2005, the two ran to an electrified barbed-wire fence. [***]His friend got hung up and died in the fence; Shin stepped on his body and managed to get through.

"I could afford little thought for my poor friend and I was just overwhelmed by joy," he writes of his first moments beyond the fence.

He broke into a nearby house, where he stole clothes and rice. He sold some of the rice for cash and made his way north to the border with China. There, he bribed guards with cigarettes and ran across the frozen Tumen River. Shin says he is still amazed that he got out. [***]

"I think God was helping me," he said.

Here in South Korea, Shin sometimes goes to church on Sundays. "I go to the church, but I don't really understand the words or the concepts," he said.

The concept of forgiveness is especially difficult for him to grasp. In Camp No. 14, he said, to ask for forgiveness was "to beg not to be punished."

Shin could not find his uncles in South Korea. He searched for them for a while, then gave up. He no longer has nightmares and sleeps soundly through the night. There is, however, a new kind of misery.

"I have recently discovered that I am lonely," he said.

In the prison camp, he and everyone else ignored his birthday. But now when his birthday rolls around, he aches inside.

"I realize you really need a family," he said.

Shin's birthday was Nov. 19, and four friends threw him a surprise party at a T.G.I. Friday's in Seoul. It was his first birthday party.

"I was very moved," he said.
Special correspondent Stella Kim contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Bangladesh: Restrictions to End

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/asia/11briefs-RESTRICTIONS_BRF.html
December 11, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
Bangladesh: Restrictions to End
By REUTERS [Bangladesh] [SAsia] [followup] [curfews, seemingly spontaneous violence, the under-reported jihadis-hydra threat in Bangladesh] [military junta and democratization] [followup to Aug 2007’s turmoil] [followup to May 13] [note: Bangladesh has about 153 million, 83% of whom are Muslim] [fewer than 130 Muslims] [Indonesia (world most populous Islamic country), Pakistan (2nd most), India’s 151 million (3rd most) and Bangladesh (4th most)] [the top 4 most populous Muslims countries are Asia] [****]
Bangladesh will end its nearly two-year-old state of emergency next Wednesday, before

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/asia/11briefs-RESTRICTIONS_BRF.html
December 11, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
Bangladesh: Restrictions to End
By REUTERS [Bangladesh] [SAsia] [followup] [curfews, seemingly spontaneous violence, the under-reported jihadis-hydra threat in Bangladesh] [military junta and democratization] [followup to Aug 2007’s turmoil] [followup to May 13] [note: Bangladesh has about 153 million, 83% of whom are Muslim] [fewer than 130 Muslims] [Indonesia (world most populous Islamic country), Pakistan (2nd most), India’s 151 million (3rd most) and Bangladesh (4th most)] [the top 4 most populous Muslims countries are Asia] [****]
Bangladesh will end its nearly two-year-old state of emergency next Wednesday, before parliamentary elections scheduled for Dec. 29, a government minister said Wednesday. All restrictions on holding meetings and rallies by political parties will be lifted on Friday, [***] the minister, Hossain Zillur Rahman, told reporters. After widespread violence, a military-backed interim government came to power in January 2007 and imposed indefinite emergency rule. It canceled an election scheduled for Jan. 22, 2007, but it pledged to hold one by the end of 2008. [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

An Israeli Party Tips Further Right as Its Leader Woos Centrists

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/middleeast/11israel.html
December 11, 2008
An Israeli Party Tips Further Right as Its Leader Woos Centrists
By ETHAN BRONNER [Israel] [domestic politics intersects Israel’s foreign policy] [Kadima leader, Ms. Livni attempting to create coalition] [Ehud Barack back in position of considerable influence] [meanwhile, Israeli domestic politics again thwart any sustained effort toward Israeli-Palestinian peace] [followup] [this sort of trouble has plagued Israeli domestic politics for most of Israel’s modern existence] [rocky coalitions have ruled Israel for decades] [Bebe Netanyahu’s forces making serious push but with costs: his partners say no negotiations!] [when are the Likudniks going to figure out what everybody else has/ ][Israel cannot remain a Jewish state and a democracy by virtue of sheer demographics] [*****]
JERUSALEM — Primary election results in Israel for the opposition Likud Party this

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/middleeast/11israel.html
December 11, 2008
An Israeli Party Tips Further Right as Its Leader Woos Centrists
By ETHAN BRONNER [Israel] [domestic politics intersects Israel’s foreign policy] [Kadima leader, Ms. Livni attempting to create coalition] [Ehud Barack back in position of considerable influence] [meanwhile, Israeli domestic politics again thwart any sustained effort toward Israeli-Palestinian peace] [followup] [this sort of trouble has plagued Israeli domestic politics for most of Israel’s modern existence] [rocky coalitions have ruled Israel for decades] [Bebe Netanyahu’s forces making serious push but with costs: his partners say no negotiations!] [when are the Likudniks going to figure out what everybody else has/ ][Israel cannot remain a Jewish state and a democracy by virtue of sheer demographics] [*****]
JERUSALEM — Primary election results in Israel for the opposition Likud Party this week have put its leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, in a bind: His list of parliamentary candidates is notably more hawkish than he is, [***] making it harder for him to campaign on the promise to form a centrist coalition if elected.

Major victors in the primaries held Monday and Tuesday either reject territorial compromise with the Palestinians or are so skeptical of Palestinian intentions and capacities that they dismiss negotiations with them as a waste of time. [***]Mr. Netanyahu has been assuring Arab, European and American officials that if, as voter surveys suggest, he is elected prime minister in February he will continue talks with the Palestinians and govern with a broad coalition.

“We see a list which might make it difficult for Netanyahu to govern as he had planned,” said Zalman Shoval, his longtime foreign affairs adviser and a former ambassador to Washington, who did not win a secure place in the primaries. “The general public is not represented by the composition of the Likud list.”

Analysis in the news media has been much harsher.

In a column called “Return of the Swamp,” Nahum Barnea wrote Wednesday in Yediot Aharonot, a centrist newspaper, that Mr. Netanyahu was now “a hostage in the hands of the extreme right wing.” [***] [if it wasn’t so scary I would enjoy the irony] [***] In Maariv, a center-right daily newspaper, Shalom Yerushalmi, an analyst, called the damage to Mr. Netanyahu great.

The Jerusalem Post, a daily that leans right of center, said in an editorial: “Netanyahu urgently needs to tell his Knesset candidates, the voting public and Israel’s allies abroad what his party now stands for. Otherwise others, to his detriment, will be only too ready to define it for him.” [indeed] [what does Likud stand for now?] [there are sane Likud members who have little in common with Likud’s hard right wing] [sort of like the GOP in US but the stakes aren’t America’s existence—at least in the short term] [***]

The hope among officials in Kadima, the centrist party leading the government and seeking to remain in power, is that wavering voters will move toward them from Likud as a result of the primaries.

But the first postprimary polls, conducted Tuesday evening and published in the newspapers Haaretz and Yediot Aharonot, showed no such effect. Of the 120 seats in Parliament, the Haaretz survey found, 36 would go to Likud, 27 to Kadima and 12 to Labor, [***] with the rest to smaller parties; Yediot found the distribution to be 31 to Likud, 24 to Kadima and 11 to Labor. These were largely unchanged from last month.

Analysts are divided on whether or not the nature of the Likud list has sunk in and on whether voters are more focused on the economy, education and crime than on Middle East peace and would still prefer Likud. [***]

“I think the divide between doves and hawks is less relevant because most Israelis don’t see peace around the corner,” said Ron Dermer, a close campaign aide to Mr. Netanyahu. “We are saying: ‘Let’s not get caught up in an all-or-nothing approach. Let’s make steady progress on the ground with the Palestinians and on the domestic agenda.’ ”

Mr. Netanyahu has spoken of promoting an “economic peace” with the Palestinians, bolstering their prosperity and domestic institutions while slowly continuing political negotiations on a two-state solution based on yielding territory. Palestinian officials have expressed despair at such an approach. [***]

For the Palestinians, as well as for outsiders who follow Israeli politics, it may be hard to think of Mr. Netanyahu as anything but a hawkish conservative when compared with Ehud Barak, leader of the Labor Party, and Tzipi Livni, the Kadima chief, who both say they will charge ahead on a peace deal. [***]Mr. Netanyahu has repeatedly said he will not divide Jerusalem, a Palestinian demand for peace, or go beyond certain red lines regarding Israel’s territorial security. [there’s already an established framework for dividing Jerusalem into Arab, Jewish, Christian and one other quarters] [read or listen to Marwan Muasher, Jordan’s first ambassador to Israel] [World Affair Council and other fora] [his book The Promise of Moderation] [http://fora.tv/2008/09/08/ Marwan_Muasher_Arab_Center_and_the_Promise_of_Moderation] [***]

But Mr. Netanyahu and his aides have gone out of their way to note that when he was prime minister in the late 1990s he signed an agreement with the Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat on Hebron, the West Bank city. They say he hopes to draw Labor into his government to defang the left. Mr. Netanyahu brought several moderates into Likud in recent weeks as part of that effort. [***]

Since previous hawks became more dovish once they were in power, some Israelis argue, the same will happen to whoever wins in February. They point to the change of heart that occurred in former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon [***]and the departing prime minister, Ehud Olmert, and say Mr. Netanyahu will go down the same path. [pinning hope on hawks vs doves is futile] [instead, Israelis need to grapple with a looming crisis] [its Arab population will surpass its Jewish one in the foreseeable future] [if Israel remained democratic, Arabs would outvote Jews and Israel would no longer be a Jewish state] [to stay a Jewish state, it would necessarily forgo democratic governance] [for the Jewish people and their friends, the first is a tragedy] [for democracy advocates the latter would be a tragedy] [***]

But the selection this week of a number of Likud candidates seems likely to complicate that analysis. Attention has been focused on the election of Moshe Feiglin to the secure 20th spot on the Likud list as well as a number of others whom Mr. Feiglin’s supporters helped choose, voting in a bloc. [***]

Mr. Feiglin is among the most unyielding of West Bank settlers. He has advocated Israeli withdrawal from the United Nations and the cutoff of water and electricity to the Palestinian areas. He says that there is no Palestinian people and that there will never be a Palestinian state, and that Israel will hold onto everything it has now. [these nut cases need to be marginalized] [they ensure Israel’s eventual destruction] [they believe god will forestall same] [***] In a television interview on Wednesday, he advocated annexing the West Bank and paying Palestinians to leave.

Mr. Netanyahu campaigned against Mr. Feiglin before the primaries, and his aides say that because of various rules governing the primaries, Mr. Feiglin’s slot may move down before the February elections.

Still, analysts note, numerous others who are expected to be elected from the Likud Party, while not as hard-line as Mr. Feiglin, would make negotiations with the Palestinians hard to carry out and territorial compromise even harder.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Iraq Bomb Kills 48 in Volatile North

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/12/world/middleeast/12iraq.html
December 12, 2008
Iraq Bomb Kills 48 in Volatile North
By TIMOTHY WILLIAMS [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and fault lines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [AQI and other jihadis elements diminished status equates to a shift toward AfPak where it should have stayed in the first place] [they are clearly trying to keep the focus in –ir] [****]
BAGHDAD — At least 48 people were killed and 96 wounded when a suicide bomber

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/12/world/middleeast/12iraq.html
December 12, 2008
Iraq Bomb Kills 48 in Volatile North
By TIMOTHY WILLIAMS [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and fault lines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [AQI and other jihadis elements diminished status equates to a shift toward AfPak where it should have stayed in the first place] [they are clearly trying to keep the focus in –ir] [****]
BAGHDAD — At least 48 people were killed and 96 wounded when a suicide bomber blew himself up inside a restaurant near Kirkuk in northern Iraq on Thursday during a lunchtime meeting of local Kurdish officials with Awakening leaders who were discussing ways to cooperate to end the violence that has plagued the volatile oil-rich city. [***]

The restaurant was packed with hundreds of families celebrating the end of the Muslim holiday of Id al-Adha, officials said.

The bombing appeared to be a direct assault on efforts to calm tensions between rival groups in and around Kirkuk with its delicate ethnic and sectarian makeup perched atop great oil reserves. [***]The restaurant, located 25 miles north of Kirkuk, is in the heart of an area contested by Kurds and Arabs and where Al Qaeda in Iraq has been active.

The attack is one of the worst in recent months to strike Iraq and the casualty figures may rise.

Among the competing groups in the region around Kirkuk, Sunni Arabs, Shiite Arabs, Kurds, Turkmens, Yazidis, and others are now passionately pressing their claims for land and political power in the city. [also a few remaining Christians] [***] The ethnic majority Kurds are trying to expand their autonomous political control in the region, and many Iraqi Arabs are resisting, saying they want to remain under central government authority.

In July, violence flared in the city when a crowd blamed Turkmen extremists for a suicide attack, and a mob of enraged Kurds began attacking Turkmen political offices and setting their buildings ablaze; many were killed in the fighting.

Awakening leaders, mostly Arab Sunni former insurgents now working with the government and American forces, and Kurdish officials have been looking for way to cooperate and calm tensions.

But Iraq is now approaching a period of further uncertainty with provincial elections scheduled for Jan. 31 and the United States’ preparations to draw down troops raising questions about whether Iraq’s security forces can control the country. Iraq this month finally approved the security agreement with the United States that envisions a complete troop pullout by the end of 2011. [***]

After the restaurant attack, at least 25 of the wounded were taken to local hospitals in critical condition, said Col. Yadger Abdullah, director of the Kirkuk police.

At the city’s main hospital family members of those hurt in the attack wept and screamed in the corridors as doctors tried to save the wounded people’s lives, The Associated Press reported.

Salam Abdullah, a 45-year-old Kurd, said he was having lunch with his wife when they saw shrapnel flying through the room. “I held my wife and led her outside the place. As we were leaving, I saw dead bodies soaked with blood and huge destruction,” he told the A.P. "We waited outside the restaurant for some minutes. Then an ambulance took us to the hospital."
Graham Bowley contributed reporting from New York.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Sunni Militants’ Chief May Have Been Killed or Caught in Syria

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/middleeast/11syria.html
December 11, 2008
Sunni Militants’ Chief May Have Been Killed or Caught in Syria
By GRAHAM BOWLEY and SOUAD MEKHENNET [Syria] [Lebanon] [the poltical mess since the 2005 assasination of Hariri] [Syria’s long-term designs on Lebanon] [Hezbollah, Fath al Islam, or others?] [followup] [it’s starting to devolve again in Lebanon] [important to note the Shiia connection with non-Arab Iran in contrast to the Sunni-Salafi one the U.S. is confronting] [followup] [a fundamentally peculier and unique situation: 2 non-state actors both running parts of Lebanon with a week government attempting to hang on] [the week govt stems from Lebanon’s creation after Ottomans by the French of a Christian enclave for western Syria] [importantly, the 2 non-state actors are antithetical to one another—one is Shia Hezbollah and the other Sunni-Salafi Fatah al Islam] [use psci 469b] [******]
The fugitive leader of a Sunni extremist group who led a prolonged standoff

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/middleeast/11syria.html
December 11, 2008
Sunni Militants’ Chief May Have Been Killed or Caught in Syria
By GRAHAM BOWLEY and SOUAD MEKHENNET [Syria] [Lebanon] [the poltical mess since the 2005 assasination of Hariri] [Syria’s long-term designs on Lebanon] [Hezbollah, Fath al Islam, or others?] [followup] [it’s starting to devolve again in Lebanon] [important to note the Shiia connection with non-Arab Iran in contrast to the Sunni-Salafi one the U.S. is confronting] [followup] [a fundamentally peculier and unique situation: 2 non-state actors both running parts of Lebanon with a week government attempting to hang on] [the week govt stems from Lebanon’s creation after Ottomans by the French of a Christian enclave for western Syria] [importantly, the 2 non-state actors are antithetical to one another—one is Shia Hezbollah and the other Sunni-Salafi Fatah al Islam] [use psci 469b] [******]
The fugitive leader of a Sunni extremist group who led a prolonged standoff against the Lebanese Army last year at a Palestinian refugee camp near Tripoli, [***] Lebanon, may have been killed or captured in Syria, [***]according to a statement posted by the group on militant Web sites. [do they mean Fatah al-Islam?] [***]

During the summer of 2007, the Lebanese Army battled fighters from a militant group, Fatah al Islam, which claims to have allegiances with Al Qaeda, in the Nahr al Bared refugee camp. [yes] [****]

The army routed the group and nearly leveled the camp, but the group’s leader, Shakir al-Abssi, was never caught. [**] In the statement posted on Web sites on Monday, the group said that Mr. Abssi had fled to Syria, where he tried to rebuild his organization, but that he and two companions were ambushed by what it called Syrian security agents as they were going to meet supporters. [good for Syria] [I hope they caught the guy and are interrogating him for valuable info on potential connections to al Qaeda central in AfPak] [***] Mr. Abssi may have died in the resulting hourlong firefight, the Fatah al Islam statement said.

The group named Abu Muhammad Awad as his successor, [***]according to the statement.

“Up to this moment, we have no knowledge, even though we are inclined to think they died,” according to the statement, which was provided by the SITE Intelligence Group, an organization that monitors militant Web sites. “Yet, we have no evidence that proves this matter to us,” the statement said.

Its authenticity could not be verified. A senior Syrian security official could not confirm Mr. Abssi’s death or capture.

Last year Lebanese officials said they believed that Mr. Abssi had died in the last hours of the 15-week battle, but DNA testing of a body thought to be his proved negative, and a captured member of his group told officials he had escaped the night before the army’s final assault.

Tensions have lingered in Tripoli since then, and many in the city say they believe that a series of attacks on the Lebanese Army earlier this year were meant to avenge the Fatah al Islam militants killed in the fighting last year. [***]In August, a bomb hidden in a briefcase tore through a bus packed with soldiers on their way to work, killing 15 people, including nine soldiers, and in September, a remotely detonated car bomb exploded near another bus carrying army troops, killing four soldiers and a civilian.

The Syrian government blamed Fatah al Islam for a bombing in September in Damascus that killed 17 people and was the deadliest attack in Syria since the 1980s. [***] Syrian state television showed what it said were 12 members of the group, including Mr. Abssi’s daughter, confessing that they had helped plan the attack.

Mr. Abssi was convicted and sentenced to death in Jordan for helping to organize the 2002 assassination of an American diplomat, Laurence Foley. Court papers show that he worked with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, [***] [what tangled webs they’ve weaved] [***] who was killed in 2006 by United States forces in Iraq.
Graham Bowley reported from New York, and Souad Mekhennet from Frankfurt. Robert F. Worth contributed reporting from Mumbai, India.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

In Afghanistan, Gates to Talk of Troop Increases

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/12/world/middleeast/12gates.html
December 12, 2008
In Afghanistan, Gates to Talk of Troop Increases
By ELISABETH BUMILLER [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [what is Patraeus waiting for before implementing counterinsurgency program?] [the winter respite is nearly on them] [use psci469b] [let us hope this indicates the stirrings of a counterinsurgency plan from the new administration] [cross in govt] [****]
KANDAHAR, Afghanistan — Defense secretary Robert M. Gates said here on Thursday

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/12/world/middleeast/12gates.html
December 12, 2008
In Afghanistan, Gates to Talk of Troop Increases
By ELISABETH BUMILLER [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [what is Patraeus waiting for before implementing counterinsurgency program?] [the winter respite is nearly on them] [use psci469b] [let us hope this indicates the stirrings of a counterinsurgency plan from the new administration] [cross in govt] [****]
KANDAHAR, Afghanistan — Defense secretary Robert M. Gates said here on Thursday that the Pentagon, which plans to send 20,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, was trying to get thousands of the additional combat forces into the country as soon as next spring, [that might be too many] [it may indicate they still do not plan to protect major civilian population centers but, rather, a shotgun scatter of troop everywhere?] [we will have to wait to see how deployed] [***] a sign of the seriousness of the threat facing the United States against the Taliban.

The soldiers were requested by Gen. David D. McKiernan, the top commander in Afghanistan. The first of them, about 3,500 to 4,000 troops from the Third Brigade of the 10th Mountain Division from Fort Drum, N.Y., are scheduled to arrive next month.

Mr. Gates said he hoped to deploy an additional two combat brigades in Afghanistan by the spring as part of an effort to combat growing violence and chaos in the country. He declined to name the specific units. Pentagon officials have said it would take 12 to 18 months overall to get all 20,000 American troops to Afghanistan. [***]

Both Mr. Gates and General McKiernan said on Thursday that there would be a “sustained commitment” of American troops in Afghanistan for the next three to four years, although they declined to put a number on that commitment. [I sure hope Patraeus is working with experts for a specific plan for AfPak] [***]

The additional 20,000 troops will increase the number of American troops in Afghanistan to about 58,000 from the current level of 34,000. Neither Mr. Gates nor General McKiernan gave any indication that that number was likely to be reduced soon, meaning American force levels could remain that high in Afghanistan through much of the first term of President-elect Barack Obama.

Mr. Gates, who is stay on as Mr. Obama’s Defense Secretary, arrived here early Thursday on an unannounced trip to a regional military base for international forces in Kandahar in southern Afghanistan, the ideological centre of gravity for the Taliban. [***]

Earlier, Mr. Gates told reporters on his plane en route to Kandahar, that the planned drawdown of some troops from Iraq in January had enabled the military to begin sending additional forces to Afghanistan.

But while he outlined the United States’ commitment, he was critical of NATO for allowing the United States to share a disproportionate share of the burden of the war in Afghanistan.

“NATO is a military alliance, not a talk shop,” Mr. Gates told reporters. [I’m afraid nobody knows what NATO is anymore] [that’s the principal problem] [***]

Mr. Obama vowed repeatedly during the campaign to send thousands of additional troops to Afghanistan, which he declared the central front in the war against terrorism. His call for more troops here was consistent with the views of top commanders, although Mr. Gates made clear that the new administration’s military policy in Afghanistan is far from settled.

“But I have not heard anybody talking about forces beyond those that General McKiernan has already requested,” said Mr. Gates, who has been in recent conversations with Mr. Obama and in meetings with the president-elect’s transition team. “And I think that’s a discussion that the new administration will have as we look to the future.” [***]

Mr. Gates said that his view would be to accelerate the growth of the Afghan army, [good] [that’s one part] [***] particularly as the United States increases its military presence in the country.

“The history of foreign military forces in Afghanistan, when they have been regarded by the Afghan people as there for their own interests, and as occupiers, has not been a happy one,” [***]Mr. Gates said. “And the Soviets couldn’t win in Afghanistan with 120,000 troops. And they clearly didn’t care about civilian casualties. So I just think we have to think about the longer term in this. I think we’re going to be in this struggle for quite a long time, and I think we have to make sure we’ve got some of the basics right.”

Mr. Gates said he had talked on the telephone with Mr. Obama since they first met in Washington on Nov. 10 and that the conversations since then have largely focused on personnel, including who will assume the top jobs under Mr. Gates at the Pentagon.

“It’s a dialogue,” he said. “I do not have specific candidates for specific jobs, and so they’re providing me with names and I’m giving them feedback.” Mr. Gates added that he would interview all prospects for senior-level positions and make recommendations to Mr. Obama. “I guess the way I would leave it is I believe I have substantial influence over those decisions, but if the president of the United States wants to appoint somebody to a job, nobody in the executive branch has a veto,” [well said] [***] Mr. Gates said.

Mr. Gates also said there had been “some occasional awkwardness” as he makes the transition from one commander-in-chief to another. For example, he said, he has sometimes had to chose between attending what is known as a “principals”‘ meeting at the White House — a session with the secretaries of State, Treasury and other Cabinet members, without the president — or a session with Mr. Obama’s transition team.

“I haven’t missed any meetings with the president, let me put it that way,” Mr. Gates said. “But let’s just say that if I’m faced with a choice between attending a principals’ meeting on an issue that I think is not particularly hot and a meeting with the transition folks, I’ll opt for the latter.” [***] [hooray!]

Before arriving in Kandahar, Mr. Gates made a brief stop at Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan, the main base for American air transport into Afghanistan. In remarks to American troops there, Mr. Gates said that the scope and size of their mission would change in the months to come. [***]

“The final decision will be made by the next president, but a consensus has emerged that more troops are needed,” Mr. Gates said, cautioning that “success in Afghanistan will not come easily or quickly.” [***]

In response to a question, Mr. Gates also said that because the U.S. was at war in two countries, he anticipated “continued support for a pretty robust defense budget” in the next administration.

“I may be whistling past the graveyard here but I think that we’re not likely to see significant cuts,” he said, adding to applause that “the defense budget at the end of the day is a pretty impressive stimulus for the economy.” [indeed it is] [I’ve always called it a public works program] [why can’t Repbulicans who love large military budgets understand that the current times also call for a domestically focused public works program that builds new green infrastructure, etc.?] [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

India Wants Broad Crackdown Against Militants in Pakistan

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/12/world/asia/12mumbai.html
December 12, 2008
India Wants Broad Crackdown Against Militants in Pakistan
By SOMINI SENGUPTA and ROBERT F. WORTH [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [India releasing new info and more or less demanding Pakistan crackdown on Lashkar and others] [ditto] [****]
NEW DELHI — Calling Pakistan the epicenter of terrorist attacks against India, the

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/12/world/asia/12mumbai.html
December 12, 2008
India Wants Broad Crackdown Against Militants in Pakistan
By SOMINI SENGUPTA and ROBERT F. WORTH [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [India releasing new info and more or less demanding Pakistan crackdown on Lashkar and others] [ditto] [****]
NEW DELHI — Calling Pakistan the epicenter of terrorist attacks against India, the Indian foreign minister on Thursday urged the government there to do more than detain leaders of extremist groups, even as he hinted that India does not “intend to be provoked” into a military conflict. [***]

In Pakistan, the government signaled limited moves against a charity widely believed to act as a front for the militant group, Lashkar-e-Taiba, that Indian and American intelligence officials say was behind the Mumbai attacks last month.

The Indian foreign minister, Pranab Mukherjee, speaking to Parliament in its first session since the three-day siege of Mumbai, reiterated India’s demand for Pakistan to hand over about 40 fugitives and suspected suspects whom it says are taking shelter in Pakistan. His comments seemed to avoid directly criticizing the president of Pakistan, Asif Ali Zardari, and his democratically elected government. [thankfully, cooler heads may be taking charge] [perhaps CJCS Admiral Mullen’s work is paying off] [***]

At the same time, he pressed the Zardari administration to close down the “infrastructure” that enables terror strikes against India. [***]

Shortly after the Mumbai attacks, Mr. Zardari described the terror suspects as “nonstate actors” over whom the Pakistani government had no control. On Thursday, that statement met with a stinging retort from Mr. Mukherjee.

“Are they nonstate actors coming from heaven, or they are coming from a different planet?” Mr. Mukherjee asked. “Nonstate actors are operating from a particular country. What we are most respectfully submitting, suggesting to the government of Pakistan: Please act. Mere expression of intention is not adequate.” [ouch] [***]

It was India’s first response to Pakistan’s crackdown on camps and leaders of Lashkar-e-Taiba, accused in the Mumbai attacks that killed 163 people, along with 9 gunmen. Pakistani officials in Islamabad announced the arrests earlier this week.

In Islamabad, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani said Pakistan “has taken note” of the United Nations Security Council declaration late Wednesday that a charity based in Pakistan, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, was a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba and subject to United Nations sanctions including the freezing of its assets and a travel ban on four of its leaders. [***] One leader was Zaki ur-Rehman Lakhvi, whom the Pakistani government said it arrested Sunday.

The Security Council committee also added Hafiz Saeed, founder of the Lashkar-e-Taiba, and his Jamaat-ud-Dawa to a list of people and organizations linked to Al Qaeda or the Taliban.

A statement from Mr. Gilani’s office said he told the American deputy secretary of state, John D. Negroponte, that Pakistan “would fulfill its international obligations,” Reuters reported. The Interior Ministry issued a statement saying Jamaat-ud-Dawa would be put under monitoring and its offices sealed if necessary, Reuters said.

In Lahore on Thursday, Mr. Saeed, the founder of the group, criticized the United Nations’ decision, saying that his charity was a legitimate organization with no links to terrorism, [they always say that and they continue to provide cover for Lakshar] Agence France-Presse reported. Mr. Saeed publicly disowned Lashkar-e-Taiba after it [***]was outlawed by Pakistan in 2002.

“The Security Council took this decision without giving any us any opportunity to respond,” Mr. Saeed said, according to the agency. “We are not prepared to accept this decision, which was taken in haste. We do not accept terrorism, killing innocent people, or carrying out suicide attacks. This has always been our stand.”

On Wednesday, Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, praised the actions taken by the Pakistani authorities, but noted that the United States viewed the actions only as initial measures to deal with the crisis. [***]

“These are first steps, and so there are more steps to follow,” Admiral Mullen told reporters in Washington. “But they’ve moved pretty quickly with respect to these arrests, with respect to shutting down some of the camps. And all of that, I think, is very positive.”

Mr. Mukherjee on Thursday also delivered a message to allies and rivals abroad: India would not be dragged into discussions about Kashmir, which the minister described as a domestic problem.

“This is not an India-Pakistan issue,” he said, referring to the attacks. “This is not an issue related to Jammu and Kashmir. This is a part of global terrorism.”

The home minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, announced an overhaul of the nation’s intelligence network in a speech to Parliament on Thursday, fulfilling a pledge from the government in the immediate aftermath of the siege. Mr. Chidambaram, the country’s principal law enforcement official, had previously acknowledged lapses in the security forces’ preparedness for the attacks.

He said “the finger of suspicion” points at “our neighbor,” clearly meaning Pakistan. Mr. Chidambaram succeeded Shivraj Patil, who resigned after the attacks in Mumbai.

The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party also pledged Thursday to stand by the government. “We should not be fooled by this kind of operation,” Lal Krishna Advani, the opposition leader, said of Pakistan’s response so far.

The Indian security forces’ slow response to the attack “exposed their lack of intelligence and lax approach to law and order,” said Farhana Ali, a South Asia terrorism expert and former analyst for RAND Corporation, which researches policy and security issues.

The intelligence restructuring will bolster the coast guard and maritime forces, strengthen intelligence agencies with new personnel, establish a national investigative center and set up training courses for antiterrorism officers, police units and commando squads, .

The violence in Mumbai began on the night of Nov. 26 and ended more than 60 hours later when the last of the gunmen was killed in a shootout with elite Indian commandos. The assault on the city was apparently staged, the Indian police have said, by a squad of 10 gunmen who used boats to approach Mumbai.

Nine militants were killed and one was captured.

Since the attacks, there has been an outpouring of anger across India. [***]

Last week, tens of thousands of citizens stormed the Gateway of India, a famed waterfront monument near the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower hotel, one of the sites attacked, venting anger at their elected leaders. There were similar protests in New Delhi and the southern technology hubs of Bangalore and Hyderabad. All were organized spontaneously, with word spread through text messages and social networking Web sites like Facebook.

Indian citizens and police officials alike have expressed concern about follow-on attacks by terrorists who might have escaped during the mayhem of the assault. [***]

The Indian police said they had foiled an attempt to destroy landmarks and wreak havoc in Mumbai early this year, breaking up a cell of Pakistani and Indian men. [***]

The foiled plot also involved Lashkar-e-Taiba, which suggested that the militant group conceived its plan long in advance and has deeper contacts with radical Indian Muslims than investigators have been willing to concede. [***]It also pointed out another significant security lapse by Indian intelligence and police forces, who months ago had glimpses of a blueprint for the Mumbai attacks and even a strong indication of the intended targets.

Somini Sengupta reported from New Delhi and Robert F. Worth from Mumbai, India. Mark McDonald contributed reporting from Hong Kong and Eric Schmitt from Washington.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Indian Police Name 2 More Men as Trainers and Supervisors of Mumbai Attackers

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/asia/11mumbai.html
December 11, 2008
Indian Police Name 2 More Men as Trainers and Supervisors of Mumbai Attackers
By ROBERT F. WORTH [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [India releasing new info and more or less demanding Pakistan crackdown on Lashkar and others] [****]
MUMBAI, India — The Indian police identified two additional men on Wednesday who

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/asia/11mumbai.html
December 11, 2008
Indian Police Name 2 More Men as Trainers and Supervisors of Mumbai Attackers
By ROBERT F. WORTH [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [India releasing new info and more or less demanding Pakistan crackdown on Lashkar and others] [****]
MUMBAI, India — The Indian police identified two additional men on Wednesday who they said had trained and supervised the 10 gunmen in the Mumbai attacks last month, adding detail to their contentions about the plot’s Pakistani origins.

The police here have already identified Zaki ur-Rehman Lakhvi as a major planner and coordinator of the plot, based on their interrogations of the one surviving gunman. Pakistan said Tuesday that it had arrested Mr. Lakhvi, the operational commander of the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, during a raid on Sunday on a camp outside Muzaffarabad, the capital of the Pakistani-controlled region of Kashmir. [***]

On Wednesday, the Mumbai police said two more trainers’ names had emerged from their interrogations of the surviving gunman: Abu Hamza and a man known only as Khafa. [***]

All three are leading members of Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Pakistan-based militant group suspected of conducting the Mumbai attacks, [***] said Rakesh Maria, the joint commissioner of the Mumbai police.

Mr. Maria said Abu Hamza gave the 10 gunmen maritime training and advanced lessons in explosives and weapons. Abu Hamza was the gunman in a 2005 attack on the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore [***]in which a mathematician was killed, Mr. Maria said.

Abu Hamza escaped after that attack and apparently returned to Pakistan.

The other trainer, Khafa, was a mentor who worked closely with the gunmen and helped familiarize them with their targets in the last three months of their training, in Azizabad, Pakistan, Mr. Maria said.

The gunmen’s training included a motivational talk from Hafiz Muhammed Saeed, the founder of Lashkar-e-Taiba, [***]Mr. Maria said, and more than three people were involved in training them. But Mr. Lakhvi appears to have been the main figure throughout preparations for the assault. Mr. Lakhvi was present throughout the training, traveled with the gunmen to the Pakistani coast before they left for Mumbai, and “bid farewell to them as they left Karachi,” Mr. Maria said.

The police have already said that Mr. Lakhvi spoke to the gunmen by phone as the assault played out. [***]

“Zaki ur-Rehman Lakhvi is the man who planned out this whole thing,” Mr. Maria said.

Pakistan, which arrested 20 militants in recent days, has been under pressure to do more. On Tuesday, Pakistan’s ambassador to the United Nations told the Security Council that the police were investigating Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the charity that is Lashkar’s parent, and might impose punitive measures, including a freeze on its finances, [***]The Associated Press reported.

At the United Nations on Wednesday, the Security Council committee dealing with the sanctions list for people or groups linked to terrorism announced seven additions stemming from Mumbai carnage. They are four Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders; Jamaat-ud-Dawa and two banks that handled money for it, Al-Rashid Trust and Al-Akhtar Trust International. [finally, Jamaat-ud-Dawa gets sanctioned] [***]

The leaders are Mr. Saeed; Mr. Lakhvi; Muhammad Ashraf, the group’s top financial officer; and Mahmoud Mohamed Ahmed Bahaziq, called the leader of the group in Saudi Arabia and one of its financiers.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Mumbai Investigation Focuses on Possible Indian Collaborators

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/10/AR2008121003370.html
Mumbai Investigation Focuses on Possible Indian Collaborators
By Emily Wax and Rama Lakshmi
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, December 11, 2008; A11 [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [India releasing new info and more or less demanding Pakistan crackdown on Lashkar and others] [I suspected an India connection in earliest comments—not surprising] [****]
NEW DELHI, Dec. 10 -- Having blamed a Pakistani terrorist group for last month's

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/10/AR2008121003370.html
Mumbai Investigation Focuses on Possible Indian Collaborators
By Emily Wax and Rama Lakshmi
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, December 11, 2008; A11 [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [India releasing new info and more or less demanding Pakistan crackdown on Lashkar and others] [I suspected an India connection in earliest comments—not surprising] [****]
NEW DELHI, Dec. 10 -- Having blamed a Pakistani terrorist group for last month's deadly attacks in Mumbai, investigators are turning their attention to homegrown suspects who may have assisted with attacks on Indian soil. [***]

The suspects are thought to have offered help with surveillance, safe houses and border crossings. [possibly even pre-positioning equipment?] [***] The potential involvement of Indians complicates India's initial assertion that the Mumbai attacks were carried out solely by Pakistani nationals.

Mumbai police are looking in particular at two Indian suspects in their custody who, they say, were trained by the Pakistani group Lashkar-i-Taiba and who may have helped extremists as they prepared to launch strikes. [***]

Indian police say at least one Indian operative -- Sabauddin Ahmed, 29 -- aided Pakistani extremists by providing safe houses and guiding them across the border to carry out assaults in India. [I suspect we learn even more in time] [***]

Although Pakistani extremists once favored Kashmir as their route into India, crossing the border there has become more difficult in recent years [***]as authorities have cracked down on infiltrators. Indian investigators say they are uncovering information on a vast network of paths into India through Nepal and Bangladesh, as well as the Arabian Sea, the route chosen by the 10 gunmen who carried out the Mumbai attacks. [***]

The use of new land and sea routes, investigators say, has widened the theater of war beyond Kashmir and into the Indian heartland, as well as cosmopolitan cities such as Hyderabad and Bangalore, both of which were recently the scene of bombings.

"When it became more difficult for them to cross the Line of Control into Kashmir from Pakistan, the militants found other routes," said Ajay Sahni, a counterterrorism expert and executive director of the Institute for Conflict Management in New Delhi. "Nepal is a completely unpoliced border, with a mixed population living all along the border, and they cross over with absolutely no documentation on a daily basis. [***]Many people from Bangladesh come into India to work and return in the evening. These are very poorly policed; the fences are not well maintained," he said.

Use of the routes by extremists, analysts say, could force India to seek better cooperation from its eastern neighbors, just as it has with its western neighbor, Pakistan. [***]

The focus on possible Indian collaborators comes nearly two weeks after the assault on India's financial capital, in which gunmen opened fire at several sites and laid siege to two luxury hotels and a Jewish outreach center, killing at least 171 people, including six Americans, and wounding more than 230. [***]

Ahmed is being brought to Mumbai for questioning over his alleged links to Lashkar, the group that is said to have masterminded the attacks. Indian police arrested Ahmed, along with another suspect, Faheem Ansari, 35, earlier this year in connection with a grenade attack on a police camp. [***]

It is unclear whether Ahmed was involved in the Mumbai assault. Ansari apparently had a map of Mumbai, with targets in last month's attacks highlighted. Police say Ansari may have been preparing for the attacks for more than a year. [***]

Ansari sent detailed video clips and maps of key South Mumbai locations to Lashkar commanders through a conduit in Nepal, police say. Some of the locations were targeted by the gunmen. Ahmed had helped bring gunmen from Nepal for at least two attacks, in 2005 and 2007, police say. [***]

In the days after the Mumbai siege, India demanded that Pakistan crack down on the militant groups it suspected of planning the attacks, arrest its leaders and extradite them for trial in India. Pakistan has refused to hand them over, but several have been rounded up in raids. Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani confirmed Wednesday the arrest of two prominent militant leaders. [***]

Meanwhile, Rakesh Maria, Mumbai's chief police investigator, said there was further evidence of links between the Pakistan-based Islamic charity Jamaat-ud-Dawa and Lashkar. Pakistan has said it is investigating the charity. [everyone knows they are one in the same] [Jammaat is the “legitimate cover front” for Lashkar] [it does legitimate charity work but also serves Lashkar for cover] [***]

Maria said the head of the charity, Hafiz Sayeed, "gave a motivational speech to the 10 gunmen who attacked Mumbai at the end of their training." Maria said the evidence was gleaned from Azam Amir Kasab, [***] the only surviving gunman. Indian police announced Wednesday that Kasab would be charged with 12 offenses, including "murder, criminal conspiracy and waging war against the state."

The United States has been assisting in India's investigation, [***]Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Wednesday. [I would think any such help would be through FBI and coordinated with embassy in Delhi] [why is CJCS confirming it?] [***]

"Where we've been asked, we are working with the Indians to provide them intelligence" to prevent such attacks, he said at a Pentagon news conference.

"It shouldn't be lost on anyone how a handful of well-trained terrorists, using fairly unsophisticated tools in a highly sophisticated manner, held at bay an entire city and nearly brought to a boil interstate tensions between two nuclear powers," he said.

Mullen said he had discussed with Pakistan's leadership the troubling role of its Inter-Services Intelligence agency. "There's a rich history here of ISI fomenting challenges, particularly in Kashmir. [that’s twice at least this year that US officials have openly confirmed ISI’s troubling relations with jihadis] [***] And everybody is aware of that. We're aware of that, the Indians are aware of that, the Pakistanis are aware of that, as is the international community writ large," he said.

U.S. military officials have said they have no evidence that the ISI was directly involved in the Mumbai attacks, although Indian officials have suggested a link. [***]Pakistan has denied that anyone in its government was involved.
Staff writer Ann Scott Tyson in Washington contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

December 10, 2008

Relatives of 9/11 Victims Add a Passionate Layer to Guantánamo Debate

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/us/10gitmo.html
December 10, 2008
News Analysis
Relatives of 9/11 Victims Add a Passionate Layer to Guantánamo Debate
By WILLIAM GLABERSON [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [gsave] [from outsiders, fears that America has over militarized its foreign policy] [not an uncommon refrain—predates George W] [use psci 355, 455] [understandable initial overreaction following 9/11—not that it’s okay but it’s at least understandable] [what is less understandable is the stalling since: to prevent embarrassment, plain and simple] [gitmo and other stains on America’s reputation by Bush-Cheney] [use psci469b] [here, 5 of the 9/11 principals have reversed course and now prepared to plead guilty] [victims’ families allowed to sit in on KSM and others hearings] [first time the administration’s side has found its way into media] [why? when admin makes it themselves, it’s not creidible] [cross in societal] [*****]
GUANTÁNAMO BAY, Cuba — After the detainees charged with the plotting of the Sept. 11 attacks discussed confessing this week, something unusual was heard here: a

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/us/10gitmo.html
December 10, 2008
News Analysis
Relatives of 9/11 Victims Add a Passionate Layer to Guantánamo Debate
By WILLIAM GLABERSON [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [gsave] [from outsiders, fears that America has over militarized its foreign policy] [not an uncommon refrain—predates George W] [use psci 355, 455] [understandable initial overreaction following 9/11—not that it’s okay but it’s at least understandable] [what is less understandable is the stalling since: to prevent embarrassment, plain and simple] [gitmo and other stains on America’s reputation by Bush-Cheney] [use psci469b] [here, 5 of the 9/11 principals have reversed course and now prepared to plead guilty] [victims’ families allowed to sit in on KSM and others hearings] [first time the administration’s side has found its way into media] [why? when admin makes it themselves, it’s not creidible] [cross in societal] [*****]
GUANTÁNAMO BAY, Cuba — After the detainees charged with the plotting of the Sept. 11 attacks discussed confessing this week, something unusual was heard here: a vigorous public defense of Guantánamo.

“Guantánamo Bay has gotten a bad rap,” said Alice Hoagland, whose son was killed in the 2001 attack.

Hamilton Peterson, whose father was killed that day, said the procedures of the much-criticized military commission tribunal seemed plenty fair. “The entire day,” he said, “was giving these defendants their due.”

The routine here has long included officials making their case for the detentions and trials at the Guantánamo naval base in muted bureaucratese about “fair and open” proceedings. They were outmatched by human rights groups and defense lawyers, with their inflammatory accusations about torture and secret evidence.

This week, the Pentagon brought victims’ families for the first time as observers. The half-dozen family members who spoke to reporters gave the Pentagon the counterpoint it had been lacking. [****]

They also provided a sample of the emotional crosscurrents swirling around President-elect Barack Obama over Guantánamo. He has said he will close the detention camp. But its critics worry he may not carry through. He has said the military commission system has failed. But its critics worry that he may continue it, particularly with the Sept. 11 case now at a pivotal stage. [***]

For each side in the seven-year struggle over Guantánamo, this is the definitive moment in an argument that is a surrogate for other arguments about America’s definition of justice and its role in the world.

This week, that meant the victims’ families were in the thick of an old debate, suddenly turbocharged. Some of them called for Mr. Obama to keep Guantánamo open. Others said the military tribunal here should be permitted to finish its work. [***]

The unaccustomed rebuttal unsettled the Bush administration’s critics here. Defense lawyers and human rights monitors said the Pentagon was using the victims’ family members and had handpicked those invited.

Officials insisted the family members had been selected randomly. But the chief military defense lawyer here, Col. Peter R. Masciola, said he wondered “what the government is trying to make you believe by only bringing the victims they want to bring.”

Thomas A. Durkin, a defense lawyer from Chicago who represents one of those accused of plotting the Sept. 11 attacks, said the display of the victims’ relatives was an effort to make it politically risky for Mr. Obama to close the military commissions by making it appear that abandoning the military commissions would be abandoning the victims too. [***]

“This show trial is nothing more today than an effort to blackmail him politically,” Mr. Durkin said.

Pentagon officials have a track record of trying to line up pro-Bush-administration observers. In June, the Pentagon withdrew an invitation it had extended to another relative of a Sept. 11 victim, Debra Burlingame, after news organizations learned that she had been invited without any other victims’ representatives. Ms. Burlingame had written that detainees’ lawyers “subvert the truth and transform the Constitution into a lethal weapon.” [****]

This week’s appearance by the victims’ family members came at an awkward juncture for the Pentagon. Its public position is that it stands ready to carry out Mr. Obama’s orders on Guantánamo once he becomes president. But some military officials have been working behind the scenes to convince transition officials that the military commissions may be useful in fighting terrorism.

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, who is to remain in the new administration, muddied the current debate about Guantánamo by saying last week that closing the detention camp was a priority but adding, “I think some legislation probably is needed as part of it.” [***] [to create a nation-security court for trying non-state actors, legislation would need to be drafted] [***]

The Pentagon has long argued that to close Guantánamo and transfer some detainees to the United States, Congress should pass legislation declaring that the government has the authority to hold detainees indefinitely in the United States even if they are not convicted of any charges. [if there’s not enough evidence to convict in a national-security court which, presumably, would have somewhat lower hurdles, they should not be held] [***]

Civil liberties groups and other critics of the Bush administration have been on alert for any sign that the Obama administration would consider asking for an indefinite detention law. That, in the view of some of critics, would be a first retreat by Mr. Obama on Guantánamo. An Obama call for indefinite detention, they say, could be one short step from continuing the military commissions.

The public debate here has always been a concentrated version of the debate in Washington about detention. This week, there was more at stake because everyone seemed to think it might be their last chance.

For the victims’ families it was their first chance at that last word. Jim Samuel of Brick, N.J., went to the courtroom here to see the men who proudly said they planned the World Trade Center attack. “My son was on the 92nd floor,” he said.
There were some things this week for which there was no rebuttal.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Bush Warns Pakistan as He Defends Military Strategy

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/washington/10prexy.html
December 10, 2008
Bush Warns Pakistan as He Defends Military Strategy
By CHARLIE SAVAGE [bush white house] [president Bush] [buttoning up foreign relations with key partners on multiple dimensions] [shaping history of his decisions after 9/11 and the March 2—3 decision to invade -ir] [in telling troops how critical their role was in freedom’s agenda, a pretty easy sale] [sort of using troops as props for his legacy] [followup] [place such as West Point are likely the few campuses that would not laugh aloud and protest the president’s speech] [****]
WEST POINT, N.Y. — President Bush on Tuesday defended his doctrine of military

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/washington/10prexy.html
December 10, 2008
Bush Warns Pakistan as He Defends Military Strategy
By CHARLIE SAVAGE [bush white house] [president Bush] [buttoning up foreign relations with key partners on multiple dimensions] [shaping history of his decisions after 9/11 and the March 2—3 decision to invade -ir] [in telling troops how critical their role was in freedom’s agenda, a pretty easy sale] [sort of using troops as props for his legacy] [followup] [place such as West Point are likely the few campuses that would not laugh aloud and protest the president’s speech] [****]
WEST POINT, N.Y. — President Bush on Tuesday defended his doctrine of military intervention to shut down potential national security threats before they mature, [erroneously called preemptive strikes when they are preventive strikes] [also erroneously equated to Bush Doctrine which was simple: the US would make no distinction between terrorists and those who harbored them] [***] and he issued a pointed message to Pakistan that “we will do what is necessary to protect American troops and the American people.” [in theory, the US could do a preemptive strike in Pakistan or elsewhere] [the trouble is one needs nearly perfect intelligence and one almost never has it] [****]

Mr. Bush delivered the remarks during a speech at the United States Military Academy at West Point, where he first enunciated the “Bush doctrine” of preventive attack in 2002.

As he prepares to relinquish power, that assertive doctrine seems likely to recede, although President-elect Barack Obama has also warned that he will take whatever steps are necessary to hunt down terrorists or to prevent such dangers as the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran. [I suspect it will recede less and more slowly than other think] [***] And the dangers Mr. Bush spoke of, particularly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, will continue to confront Mr. Obama and his national security team, which includes Mr. Bush’s current defense secretary and top military commanders.

In the speech on Tuesday, Mr. Bush pointed to “the terrible attack in Mumbai” last month as a demonstration that terrorists still posed serious challenges, and he said that his successors should continue his military and diplomatic strategies to defeat them.

“In the years ahead, our nation must continue developing the capabilities to take the fight to our enemies across the world,” Mr. Bush said. “We must stay on the offensive.”

Mr. Bush singled out Pakistan for both praise and criticism. He said that the Pakistani government and people were working to defeat terrorism “because they have been victims of terror themselves.”

But he also pointed to the ungoverned tribal areas along Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan, where fighters of the Taliban and Al Qaeda have found a home, as a “pronounced” problem, saying that while the United States supported Pakistan’s efforts to assert control over those regions, it would also take action if necessary. [***]

Mr. Bush’s comments came in the context of several recent flare-ups involving American military and intelligence action in Pakistan, and just after a brazen attack by militants there against the supply lines for allied forces in Afghanistan.

In recent months, a number of American missile attacks in the tribal areas, including some that were said to have killed civilians, as well as at least one foray by American commandos, have inflamed tensions with Pakistan. While Washington has sought to ease these differences, Mr. Bush’s comments seemed to defend just that type of action.

During the presidential campaign, Mr. Obama asserted repeatedly that he would be willing to launch an attack in Pakistan if the United States had information about terrorists’ whereabouts and Pakistan refused to act, a stance that was scorned by his rival, Senator John McCain.

Most of the president’s remarks covered familiar territory, starting with how the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, prompted an overhaul of national security policies at home and abroad, including the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, increased surveillance of communications and financial transfers, and his resolve to go “on the offensive against the terrorists overseas so we never had to face them here at home.”

Mr. Bush also spoke of his administration’s efforts to transform the military, including increasing the use of remote-controlled aircraft, overhauling military counterinsurgency training, moving troops away from cold war garrisons and closer to potential hot spots, building a missile-defense system and giving Special Operations forces the lead role in the global fight against terrorists. [***]

Still, Mr. Bush acknowledged that not everything had gone according to plan on his watch. In particular, he said that “the battle in Iraq has been longer and more difficult than expected,” but he also said that today “the fight in Iraq nears a successful end.” He credited his decision to send a so-called surge of troops to Iraq, instead of withdrawing, for progress there. [he knows better] [he knows the surge was one of 3 important factors: surge and redeployment; Sadr having JAM stand down; and the Sons of –Iraq movement which predated the surge] [the latter could still blow up in America’s face but I’m somewhat hopeful]

Mr. Bush also said that the results of his strategy of promoting democracy and civil societies to counter the ideology of extremist Islam — rather than taking what he called the easy option of installing “friendly strongmen” in places like Iraq — were “unfolding slowly and unevenly.”

Still, he said, there were encouraging signs, including elections in Iraq.

Finally, while Mr. Bush mentioned the killing or capture of hundreds of Qaeda members around the world, including Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, the accused mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks, he also noted that Al Qaeda’s top leaders, Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahri, whom Mr. Bush did not identify by name, have evaded capture.

“Al Qaeda’s top two leaders remain at large,” he said. “Yet they are facing pressure so intense that the only way they can stay alive is to stay underground. The day will come” — he broke off to repeat himself with greater emphasis — “the day will come when they receive the justice they deserve.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Plea by Blackwater Guard Helps Indict Others

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/09/washington/09blackwater.html
December 9, 2008
Plea by Blackwater Guard Helps Indict Others
By GINGER THOMPSON and JAMES RISEN [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [gsave, -ir war] [privatization of national-security functions] [use psci 355, 455] [not only do they have improper chain of command and lack accountability] [but it demoralizes US troops who get a fraction of the pay, and have obey strict rules of engagement [*****]
WASHINGTON — In the first public airing of an investigation that remains the source of fierce international outrage, the Justice Department on Monday unsealed its case against five private security guards, built largely around the chilling testimony of a sixth

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/09/washington/09blackwater.html
December 9, 2008
Plea by Blackwater Guard Helps Indict Others
By GINGER THOMPSON and JAMES RISEN [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [gsave, -ir war] [privatization of national-security functions] [use psci 355, 455] [not only do they have improper chain of command and lack accountability] [but it demoralizes US troops who get a fraction of the pay, and have obey strict rules of engagement [*****]
WASHINGTON — In the first public airing of an investigation that remains the source of fierce international outrage, the Justice Department on Monday unsealed its case against five private security guards, built largely around the chilling testimony of a sixth guard about the 2007 shootings that left 17 unsuspecting Iraqi civilians dead at a busy Baghdad traffic circle.

In pleading guilty to manslaughter, the sixth security guard, Jeremy P. Ridgeway of California, described how he and the other guards used automatic rifles and grenade launchers to fire on cars, houses, a traffic officer and a girls’ school. In addition to those killed, there were at least 20 people wounded. [***]

The six guards were employed by Blackwater Worldwide, the largest security contractor in Iraq; the company, based in North Carolina, has not been charged in the case.

Mr. Ridgeway said in court documents that the episode in Nisour Square on Sept. 16, 2007, started when the guards opened fire on a white Kia sedan “that posed no threat to the convoy.” [***]

He told investigators that although he could not clearly see the front passenger in the Kia, he noticed that the passenger was moving his arms, according to the documents.

“Defendant Ridgeway then fired multiple rounds from his M-4 assault rifle into the front passenger’s side windshield of the white sedan, killing the passenger,” the documents read. The statement went on to say that even after it was clear the driver of the sedan had been killed, several others in the convoy continued to fire on the car, and at least one of them launched a grenade.

After the car was in flames, according to the statement, “Defendant Ridgeway recognized that there had been no attempt to provide reasonable warnings to the driver of that vehicle.”

The five guards named in the indictment rejected those assertions, and in a legal move aimed at challenging the venue for the case, they surrendered to federal authorities in Salt Lake City, in what is considered a more conservative, pro-military part of the country than Washington, D.C., [***]where the Justice Department made public its case.

The indictments and the defendants’ cross-country legal maneuver set the stage for the first test of the government’s ability to hold private security contractors accountable for what it considers crimes committed overseas. They are also likely to produce protracted, technical arguments aimed at scuttling the case well before a jury has the opportunity to evaluate the guards’ actions.

The shooting by Blackwater guards that day ignited outrage about the use of private security contractors in war zones and severely strained relations between the United States and the fledgling Iraqi government. The case remained a sore point during the Bush administration’s negotiations with Iraq for an agreement setting new rules for the continuing presence of American troops there. [***]Ultimately, a major provision of the agreement ended immunity for private contractors working in Iraq. United States officials restated the government’s commitment to pursue justice in the Nisour Square shootings.

Echoing the findings of previous investigations by Iraqi and United States authorities, prosecutors said on Monday that they found no evidence that any of the Iraqis killed had posed a threat to the guards. Instead, prosecutors accused the guards of acting with blatant disregard for human life and the rule of law.

“We honor the brave service of the many U.S. contractors who are employed to support the mission of our armed forces in extremely difficult circumstances,” said Jeffrey A. Taylor, the United States attorney for the District of Columbia. “Today, we honor that service by holding accountable the very few individuals who abused that employment by committing some very serious crimes against dozens of innocent civilians.”

High-ranking advisers on President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team said they were closely monitoring the indictments. They declined to comment, except to point out that in 2007 Mr. Obama introduced legislation in the Senate aimed at closing the legal loophole that had allowed nonmilitary contractors to escape prosecution.

His legislation, and most similar measures, failed, although a 2004 amendment to the Military Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Act gave the government broad — some said ill-defined — authority to prosecute personnel whose work directly supports the military overseas. Prosecutors said they would argue that the amendment gives the government jurisdiction for filing charges against the guards, who were hired by the State Department, not the Department of Defense.

“This is an unprecedented use of the law,” said Tara Lee, a lawyer who is an expert on military law. Other experts said the court of public opinion was likely to weigh as heavily in this case as the legal issues, which is why Mr. Ridgeway’s testimony — the first time a guard has admitted to crimes while on duty — was so important to the prosecution, and why the venue was so important to the other defendants.

Mark Hulkower, a lawyer for one of the guards, said the lawyers believed Salt Lake City would provide a jury pool “where people are more sympathetic to the experiences of coming under enemy fire.”

The five guards charged in the indictment were Paul A. Slough, 29, of Keller, Tex.; Nicholas A. Slatten, 24, of Sparta, Tenn.; Evan S. Liberty, 26, of Rochester, N.H.; Dustin L. Heard, 27, of Maryville, Tenn.; and Donald W. Ball, 26, of West Valley City, Utah. At a news conference in Washington, the prosecutors said the indictments were the culmination of one of the most complicated investigations in the history of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, involving 10 agents who interviewed hundreds of witnesses during at least four trips to Iraq.

According to the indictments, the Blackwater guards disobeyed orders by leaving their base to respond to reports of a car bomb. Upon arriving at Nisour Square, the indictments said, the guards moved into the circle against the flow of traffic and, without warning, began firing.

The shootings were without provocation or justification, said Patrick Rowan, the assistant attorney general for national security. He said the investigation showed that 13 other Blackwater guards in the convoy had acted professionally. The company has not said if it is paying the legal fees of the guards facing charges, although a Blackwater spokeswoman said last week that it did so in some instances.
Margot Williams contributed research from New York.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

5 Charged in 9/11 Attacks Seek to Plead Guilty

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/09/us/09gitmo.html
December 9, 2008
5 Charged in 9/11 Attacks Seek to Plead Guilty
By WILLIAM GLABERSON [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [gsave] [from outsiders, fears that America has over militarized its foreign policy] [not an uncommon refrain—predates George W] [use psci 355, 455] [understandable initial overreaction following 9/11—not that it’s okay but it’s at least understandable] [what is less understandable is the stalling since: to prevent embarrassment, plain and simple] [gitmo and other stains on America’s reputation by Bush-Cheney] [use psci469b] [here, 5 of the 9/11 principals have reversed course and now prepared to plead guilty] [*****]
GUANTÁNAMO BAY, Cuba — The five Guantánamo detainees charged with

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/09/us/09gitmo.html
December 9, 2008
5 Charged in 9/11 Attacks Seek to Plead Guilty
By WILLIAM GLABERSON [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [gsave] [from outsiders, fears that America has over militarized its foreign policy] [not an uncommon refrain—predates George W] [use psci 355, 455] [understandable initial overreaction following 9/11—not that it’s okay but it’s at least understandable] [what is less understandable is the stalling since: to prevent embarrassment, plain and simple] [gitmo and other stains on America’s reputation by Bush-Cheney] [use psci469b] [here, 5 of the 9/11 principals have reversed course and now prepared to plead guilty] [*****]
GUANTÁNAMO BAY, Cuba — The five Guantánamo detainees charged with coordinating the Sept. 11 attacks told a military judge on Monday that they wanted to confess in full, a move that seemed to challenge the government to put them to death. [***]

The request, which was the result of hours of private meetings among the detainees, appeared intended to undercut the government’s plan for a high-profile trial while drawing international attention to what some of the five men have said was a desire for martyrdom. [***]

But the military judge, Col. Stephen R. Henley of the Army, said a number of legal questions about how the commissions are to deal with capital cases had to be resolved before guilty pleas could be accepted. [***]

The case is likely to remain in limbo for weeks or months, presenting the Obama administration with a new issue involving detainees at the naval base at Guantánamo Bay to resolve when it takes office next month. [***]

At the start of what had been listed as routine proceedings Monday, Judge Henley said he had received a written statement from the five men dated Nov. 4 saying they planned to stop filing legal motions and “to announce our confessions to plea in full.” [***]

Speaking in what has become a familiar high-pitched tone in the cavernous courtroom here, the most prominent of the five, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, said, “we don’t want to waste our time with motions.” [KSM] [why the change of heart?] [***]

“All of you are paid by the U.S. government,” continued Mr. Mohammed, who has described himself as the mastermind of the 2001 attacks. “I’m not trusting any American.” [***]

Mr. Mohammed and the others presented their decision almost as a dare to the American government. When Judge Henley raised questions about the procedure for imposing the death penalty after a guilty plea, some of the detainees immediately suggested they might change their minds if they could not be assured they would be executed. [***]

The announcement Monday sent shockwaves through the biggest case in the war crimes system here — the case for which some government officials say the system was expressly devised. With the case suddenly at a critical juncture, President-elect Barack Obama may find it more complicated to carry out his pledge to close the detention camp here. [***]

Brooke Anderson, a spokeswoman for the presidential transition office, declined to comment.

Military prosecutors have sought the death penalty against all five men since filing charges last February in the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, which killed nearly 3,000 people.

Mr. Mohammed has emerged as the outspoken leader of the detainees in the courtroom and, presumably, behind closed doors. In September, Mr. Mohammed requested permission for the men — three of whom are defending themselves — to meet without lawyers to plan their defense. A military judge granted the request with the approval of the prosecution, and the men met several times for a total of 27 hours and prepared a written statement. [***] [seems odd that coconspirators would be allowed to meet to discuss stategy] [***]

On Monday, Judge Henley methodically questioned each man to determine if he agreed with the joint statement.

One of the five detainees, Ramzi bin al-Shibh, told the judge, “We the brothers, all of us, would like to submit our confession.” Mr. bin al-Shibh is charged with being the primary contact between the operation’s organizers and the Sept. 11 hijackers. [***]

National security specialists said the strategy appeared orchestrated by Mr. Mohammed, who has repeatedly tried to turn to the legal process into an international platform. [***]

“These guys are smart enough to know that they’re not ever going to see the light of day again,” said Andrew C. McCarthy, a former federal terrorism prosecutor who is chairman of the Center for Law and Counterterrorism in Washington. “I think they’re trying to 0make as big a publicity splash as they can.” [***]

For the first time, the Pentagon arranged for relatives of 9/11 victims to travel to Guantánamo to attend the session. A group of them, who spoke to reporters afterward, said they were struck by the extensive rights accorded the accused men. One of the relatives, Hamilton Peterson, said he was offended by the detainees, who he said were sneering and laughing in the courtroom. “They seemed to view these proceedings as a joke,” [***]Mr. Peterson said.

In an outburst, Mr. bin al-Shibh said he wanted to congratulate Osama bin Laden, adding, “We ask him to attack the American enemy with all his power.” [****]

Some lawyers who have been following the prosecutions said the timing of the effort to plead guilty was significant, coming in what may have been the last major hearing here in the Bush administration. Mr. Obama has suggested that he might end the military commissions and charge the detainees in existing American courts.

Vijay Padmanabhan, an assistant professor at Cardozo Law School who was until July a State Department lawyer with responsibility for detainee issues, said the five detainees had worked to use criticism of the military tribunals to their advantage. [***]

“They are trying to ensure their martyrdom in a manner that continues to attack the credibility of the legal system challenging them,” [***]Mr. Padmanabhan said.
In Monday’s session, which was covered by an international press corps from the Arab world, Spain, Brazil, Japan and elsewhere, Judge Henley directed prosecutors to submit full legal arguments by Jan. 4 on the procedures in capital cases outlined by the Military Commissions Act, which governs proceedings here.

Among other fundamental issues, Judge Henley asked for analysis of whether the men could be sentenced to death if they pleaded guilty instead of being found guilty by a panel of military officers. Because this week’s proceedings were to consider legal motions to be decided by the judge, no panel was present. [***]

Another potential hurdle to guilty pleas was a claim by lawyers for two of the detainees that they may not be mentally competent to represent themselves.

The judge ruled that those two detainees could not make decisions about their cases on Monday. The two are Mr. bin al-Shibh and Mustafa al-Hawsawi, charged as a Qaeda financial operative. In addition to Mr. Mohammed, the other detainees are Walid bin Attash, who is accused of selecting many of the hijackers, and Ammar al-Baluchi, a nephew of Mr. Mohammed who is said to have been one of his key deputies in the Sept. 11 plot.

The judge said the competency issues might not be resolved for a substantial period. The three detainees who are representing themselves said they would wait to enter a plea, as Mr. Mohammed put it, “until a decision is made about our brothers.”

The judge ruled that he would permit the three men who represent themselves to withdraw motions filed on their behalf, which would set the stage for a guilty plea.

Human rights groups monitoring the proceedings said the judge’s uncertainty about the procedures for accepting guilty pleas in a death-penalty case here illustrated the difficulties of using a new legal system to prosecute terrorism suspects.

“It is indicative about the last four years of a failed commission process,” said Anthony D. Romero, the executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union.

But a Pentagon spokesman, Cmdr. Jeffrey D. Gordon, said, “These are extraordinarily complex issues, and we have worked hard to ensure that those accused of war crimes get full and fair trials.”

Alice Hoagland, the mother of Mark Bingham, who was killed on Sept. 11, said she was pleased that the military judge had not rushed to allow guilty pleas. The detainees “do not deserve to be dealt with as martyrs,” Ms. Hoagland said. “They do not deserve the glory of execution.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Trial by Absurdity

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/09/AR2008120902783.html
Trial by Absurdity
The alleged authors of Sept. 11 seek death -- and a propaganda coup -- in a flawed legal system.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008; A24 [editorial] [gitmo follies] [it just keeps getting worse and worse] [and the new administration is going to inherit this mess in about 40 days] [***]
THE PROCEEDINGS at the U.S. Naval Base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, have again become a forum for the absurd.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/09/AR2008120902783.html
Trial by Absurdity
The alleged authors of Sept. 11 seek death -- and a propaganda coup -- in a flawed legal system.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008; A24 [editorial] [gitmo follies] [it just keeps getting worse and worse] [and the new administration is going to inherit this mess in about 40 days] [***]
THE PROCEEDINGS at the U.S. Naval Base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, have again become a forum for the absurd.

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the self-proclaimed mastermind of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and four others are scheduled to be tried by military commission for their roles in the attacks; if convicted, they could face the death penalty. On Monday, the presiding military judge, Army Col. Stephen R. Henley, disclosed that the defendants intended to plead guilty. Under typical circumstances, those facing capital charges enter such pleas to avoid execution. [***]But these are not typical circumstances or typical defendants. Once informed that a plea deal could eliminate the possibility of execution -- and thus thwart their quest for martyrdom -- Mr. Mohammed and his cohorts backed off, at least for the time being. [***]Col. Henley has asked both sides for legal briefs on whether the death penalty is a possibility if the defendants plead guilty.

Judges do not often reject voluntarily submitted guilty pleas, but Col. Henley should do so if these defendants resurrect their pleas. Mr. Mohammed and the others have not explained their rationale, but their acts seem clearly aimed at undermining the legal process and scoring a propaganda coup for their warped cause. This is made all the more possible because of the deeply flawed nature of the Guantanamo proceedings, which deny the detainees basic due-process rights that are available in civilian courts. [***] Further eroding the legitimacy of the commissions is that the Bush administration has admitted that it subjected Mr. Mohammed to waterboarding, a simulated drowning technique that has long been considered torture. Although coerced testimony is normally inadmissible in a conventional court, such admissions are permissible in military commissions under certain circumstances. [***]

It is highly unlikely that the case against Mr. Mohammed and the others will be wrapped up before President-elect Barack Obama is sworn in. This is both a burden and an opportunity. Mr. Obama should either work with Congress to revamp the military commissions to include far more transparency and robust rights for defendants, or he should suspend them in favor of federal court trials. [****]The latter would present formidable challenges for prosecutors because of the tougher standards. But short of establishing a national security court for terrorism trials -- a proposition we endorse, but which could take some time to establish -- federal courts would immediately infuse a level of legitimacy that has been sorely lacking in the Guantanamo proceedings.

The world is watching, which must please Mr. Mohammed. And he must know that the United States is as much on trial as he is. Regardless of whether the death penalty is in play -- but especially if it is -- Mr. Mohammed and the others must be tried under a system that is beholden to nothing but the rule of law. [***]
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

While Detroit Slept

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/opinion/10friedman.html
December 10, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist
While Detroit Slept
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN [oped] [detroit’s manifestly poor judgment over past 30 years] [they aren’t the only ones to blame] [but they deserve special opprobrium] [***]
As I think about our bailing out Detroit, I can’t help but reflect on what, in my view, is the most important rule of business in today’s integrated and digitized global market, where knowledge and innovation tools are so widely distributed. It’s this: Whatever can be done, will be done. [***]The only question is will it be done by you or to you. Just don’t think it won’t be done. If you have an idea in Detroit or Tennessee, promise me that

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/opinion/10friedman.html
December 10, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist
While Detroit Slept
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN [oped] [detroit’s manifestly poor judgment over past 30 years] [they aren’t the only ones to blame] [but they deserve special opprobrium] [***]
As I think about our bailing out Detroit, I can’t help but reflect on what, in my view, is the most important rule of business in today’s integrated and digitized global market, where knowledge and innovation tools are so widely distributed. It’s this: Whatever can be done, will be done. [***]The only question is will it be done by you or to you. Just don’t think it won’t be done. If you have an idea in Detroit or Tennessee, promise me that you’ll pursue it, because someone in Denmark or Tel Aviv will do so a second later.

Why do I bring this up? Because someone in the mobility business in Denmark and Tel Aviv is already developing a real-world alternative to Detroit’s business model. I don’t know if this alternative to gasoline-powered cars will work, but I do know that it can be done — and Detroit isn’t doing it. [***]And therefore it will be done, and eventually, I bet, it will be done profitably.

And when it is, our bailout of Detroit will be remembered as the equivalent of pouring billions of dollars of taxpayer money into the mail-order-catalogue business on the eve of the birth of eBay. It will be remembered as pouring billions of dollars into the CD music business on the eve of the birth of the iPod and iTunes. It will be remembered as pouring billions of dollars into a book-store chain on the eve of the birth of Amazon.com and the Kindle. It will be remembered as pouring billions of dollars into improving typewriters on the eve of the birth of the PC and the Internet. [****]

What business model am I talking about? It is Shai Agassi’s electric car network company, called Better Place. Just last week, the company, based in Palo Alto, Calif., announced a partnership with the state of Hawaii to road test its business plan there after already inking similar deals with Israel, Australia, the San Francisco Bay area and, yes, Denmark. [****]

The Better Place electric car charging system involves generating electrons from as much renewable energy — such as wind and solar — as possible and then feeding those clean electrons into a national electric car charging infrastructure. This consists of electricity charging spots with plug-in outlets — the first pilots were opened in Israel this week — plus battery-exchange stations all over the respective country. The whole system is then coordinated by a service control center that integrates and does the billing. [****]

Under the Better Place model, consumers can either buy or lease an electric car from the French automaker Renault or Japanese companies like Nissan (General Motors snubbed Agassi) and then buy miles on their electric car batteries from Better Place the way you now buy an Apple cellphone and the minutes from AT&T. That way Better Place, or any car company that partners with it, benefits from each mile you drive. G.M. sells cars. Better Place is selling mobility miles. [****]

The first Renault and Nissan electric cars are scheduled to hit Denmark and Israel in 2011, when the whole system should be up and running. On Tuesday, Japan’s Ministry of Environment invited Better Place to join the first government-led electric car project along with Honda, Mitsubishi and Subaru. Better Place was the only foreign company invited to participate, working with Japan’s leading auto companies, to build a battery swap station for electric cars in Yokohama, the Detroit of Japan. [***]

What I find exciting about Better Place is that it is building a car company off the new industrial platform of the 21st century, not the one from the 20th — the exact same way that Steve Jobs did to overturn the music business. What did Apple understand first? One, that today’s technology platform would allow anyone with a computer to record music. Two, that the Internet and MP3 players would allow anyone to transfer music in digital form to anyone else. You wouldn’t need CDs or record companies anymore. Apple simply took all those innovations and integrated them into a single music-generating, purchasing and listening system that completely disrupted the music business.

What Agassi, the founder of Better Place, is saying is that there is a new way to generate mobility, not just music, using the same platform. It just takes the right kind of auto battery — the iPod in this story — and the right kind of national plug-in network — the iTunes store — to make the business model work for electric cars at six cents a mile. [****]The average American is paying today around 12 cents a mile for gasoline transportation, which also adds to global warming and strengthens petro-dictators.

Do not expect this innovation to come out of Detroit. Remember, in 1908, the Ford Model-T got better mileage — 25 miles per gallon — than many Ford, G.M. and Chrysler models made in 2008. But don’t be surprised when it comes out of somewhere else. It can be done. It will be done. If we miss the chance to win the race for Car 2.0 because we keep mindlessly bailing out Car 1.0, there will be no one to blame more than Detroit’s new shareholders: we the taxpayers. [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Accountability and the Court

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/opinion/10wed2.html
December 10, 2008
Editorial
Accountability and the Court
[editorial] [basic rule of law] [no person, no matter what office (s)he holds, is above the law] [****]
In this country, no one is supposed to be above the law. Even the highest officials must

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/opinion/10wed2.html
December 10, 2008
Editorial
Accountability and the Court
[editorial] [basic rule of law] [no person, no matter what office (s)he holds, is above the law] [****]
In this country, no one is supposed to be above the law. Even the highest officials must be held accountable when they do wrong. Unfortunately, the Bush administration has spent the last eight years undermining that fundamental American ideal. The Supreme Court has a chance to redress that imbalance. [***]

The court hears arguments on Wednesday in a lawsuit against John Ashcroft, the former United States attorney general, brought by an immigrant detained after the Sept. 11 attacks. The justices should rule that Javaid Iqbal has the right to try to prove that Mr. Ashcroft and other top officials denied him his constitutional rights. [***]

Mr. Iqbal, a Pakistani, was arrested by the F.B.I. in November 2001 and placed in the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. He contends that like many of the Muslim or Arab men rounded up after the attacks on New York and Washington, he was classified as being “of high interest” and was placed in a special section of the prison, based on his religion and national origin. [***]

During his more than one year of imprisonment, Mr. Iqbal says that he was held in solitary confinement, cut off from outside contact for long periods and subjected to other mistreatment — including beatings. [was he allowed to speak to a lawyer?] [was he brought before a judge—habeas corpus—where he and his lawyer could challenge his detention?] [these are not difficult concepts] [but don’t be surprised if the courts ducks] [however, why would they have agree to hear the case if they planned to duck?] [****]

Mr. Iqbal pleaded guilty to fraud relating to identification documents. After he was released, he sued, contending that his constitutional rights were infringed. He argues that his mistreatment was part of a larger pattern of abuse authorized at the highest levels of government. Numerous officials were named as defendants, including Mr. Ashcroft and Robert S. Mueller III, the F.B.I. director, as responsible for establishing the abusive policies used against him and other Arab or Muslim men. [***]

Mr. Iqbal is now seeking discovery, which is the chance to ask the defendants limited questions, under a court’s supervision, about their role in formulating these policies. The information he would learn through discovery is likely to be critical for his claims to go forward. [****]

The issue in the Supreme Court is whether these high-ranking officials are protected from having to answer questions of this kind. The Bush administration argues that the officials were not sufficiently involved in the detention policies to be responsible for them. It also maintains that if top government officials were required to comply with such discovery requests, it would interfere with their ability to do their jobs. [***]

The United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, in Manhattan, [***]rightly disagreed. It noted that Mr. Iqbal made a plausible argument that Mr. Ashcroft and Mr. Mueller condoned the policies that led to his mistreatment. The court ruled that Mr. Iqbal has pointed to enough evidence of their possible involvement that they should have to answer discovery requests. [***]

This case is about far more than one prisoner, or even the war on terror. When the government denies people their constitutional rights, high-ranking officials are often to blame. If courts are too willing to give them immunity, it will be difficult for the victims to learn how their rights were taken away or to stop such policies from continuing.[***] The Supreme Court should affirm the federal appeals court’s well-reasoned decision.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Dire Forecast for Global Economy and Trade

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/business/worldbusiness/10global.html
December 10, 2008
Dire Forecast for Global Economy and Trade
By MARK LANDLER [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice in recent weeks] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [here China steps up to plate in pretty substantial way] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup to last weekend’s G-20 meeting] [the rise of new players in globalization] [all the more reason the US needs to innovate a new green future to keep its technological advantage and provide a badly need public works program] [*****]
WASHINGTON — The world economy is on the brink of a rare global recession, the

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/business/worldbusiness/10global.html
December 10, 2008
Dire Forecast for Global Economy and Trade
By MARK LANDLER [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice in recent weeks] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [here China steps up to plate in pretty substantial way] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup to last weekend’s G-20 meeting] [the rise of new players in globalization] [all the more reason the US needs to innovate a new green future to keep its technological advantage and provide a badly need public works program] [*****]
WASHINGTON — The world economy is on the brink of a rare global recession, the World Bank said in a forecast released Tuesday, with world trade projected to fall next year for the first time since 1982 and capital flows to developing countries predicted to plunge 50 percent. [***]

The projections are among the most dire in a litany of recent gloomy forecasts for the world economy, and officials at the World Bank warned that if they proved accurate, the downturn could throw many developing countries into crisis and keep tens of millions of people in poverty.

Even more troubling, several economists said, there is no obvious engine to drive a recovery.

American consumers are unlikely to return to their old spending habits, even after the United States climbs out of its current financial crisis. With growth in China slowing sharply, consumers there are not about to pick up the slack from the Americans. The collapse in oil prices — a side effect of the crisis — has knocked the wind out of consumers in oil-exporting countries.

“We know that the financial crisis now is likely to be the worst since the 1930s,” said Justin Lin, the chief economist of the World Bank, summarizing the projections.

The bank forecasts the global economy will eke out growth of 0.9 percent in 2009, down from 2.5 percent this year and 4 percent in 2006. That is the slowest pace since 1982, when global growth was 0.3 percent. Developing countries will grow an average of 4.5 percent next year — a pace that economists said constituted a recession, given the need of these countries to grow rapidly to generate enough jobs for their swelling populations.

“You don’t need negative growth in developing countries to have a situation that feels like a recession,” said Hans Timmer, who directs the bank’s international economic analyses and projections. He predicted rising joblessness and closed factories in many developing countries.

The volume of world trade, which grew 9.8 percent in 2006 and an estimated 6.2 percent this year, will contract by 2.1 percent in 2009, the report said. That drop would be deeper than the last major contraction in trade: 1.9 percent in 1975.

Net private flows of capital to developing countries are projected to decline to $530 billion in 2009, from $1 trillion in 2007.

The loss of that capital will sharply constrict investment in emerging-market economies, the report said, with annual investment growth slowing to 3.5 percent in 2009 from 13.2 percent in 2007.

Several countries are also being hurt by the decline in the prices of oil and other commodities — a phenomenon the World Bank characterizes as the end of a five-year commodities boom — though the decline in food and fuel costs has relieved the pressure on people in other countries.

The sudden drop in capital flows poses a particular danger to oil exporters, some of whom have run up heavy debts. [***]

“They’ll have to roll over that debt, one way or the other,” said Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. “That’s going to put a huge squeeze on these countries.”

Mr. Johnson said the calmer atmosphere in foreign markets belied the gravity of the situation. Spreads on credit default swaps — a common yardstick for whether a country’s government is in danger of default — continue to signal potential trouble for Ireland, Italy and Greece. [***]

The authorities in Greece are battling violent street protests in Athens and its suburbs, caused in part by the deteriorating economy.

Reflecting what is by now conventional wisdom, the World Bank recommended that countries undertake large fiscal stimulus programs to cushion the downturn. The bank itself has committed up to $100 billion in aid to developing countries over three years.

If there is a silver lining amid the gloom, it is the relief that lower food and fuel prices mean for poorer countries. While the prices of almost all commodities have fallen sharply since July, they remain higher than in the 1990s, which the bank says should prevent future supply shortages. [***]

As the World Bank’s experts struggled to find a historical analog for the slump, they said it had more in common with the Depression of the 1930s than with the severe recessions of the 1970s or 1980s.

“It is not just a supply shock,” Mr. Timmer said. “It is not just a reduction in demand, but it is the lack of availability of credit.”

Deutsche Bank, in a forecast issued this week, was even more pessimistic. It said global growth would drop to 0.2 percent in 2009, with the United States, Europe, and Japan in recessions of roughly equal severity.

China, which grew 11.9 percent in 2007, will slow to 7 percent next year, the bank projects, and 6.6 percent in 2010, when the rest of the world is slowly recovering. “It’s not going to be the spark that reignites global demand,” said Thomas Mayer, the chief European economist for Deutsche Bank. “We’re almost in an air pocket, where we don’t have a new global driver of growth.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Ukraine: Coalition Pact Seen Near

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/europe/10briefs-COALITIONPAC_BRF.html
December 10, 2008
World Briefing | Europe
Ukraine: Coalition Pact Seen Near
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Ukraine] [former USSR] [followup] [Yushenko who tilts West has fallen on hard times] [it appears some of his trouble are of his own doing] [but his opposition which leans toward Russia has been after his head since the “Orange” revolution of 2004] [now collapsed] [followup] [none of this bodes particularly well for Ukraine] [Ukraine on the brink and this will test whether the 3 principals in Ukraine’s political dynasty can work together in the face of global economic meltdown?] [perhaps they’ve finally found a way] [followup Nov] [*****]
A legislative leader said Tuesday that Ukrainian lawmakers had forged a three-party

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/europe/10briefs-COALITIONPAC_BRF.html
December 10, 2008
World Briefing | Europe
Ukraine: Coalition Pact Seen Near
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Ukraine] [former USSR] [followup] [Yushenko who tilts West has fallen on hard times] [it appears some of his trouble are of his own doing] [but his opposition which leans toward Russia has been after his head since the “Orange” revolution of 2004] [now collapsed] [followup] [none of this bodes particularly well for Ukraine] [Ukraine on the brink and this will test whether the 3 principals in Ukraine’s political dynasty can work together in the face of global economic meltdown?] [perhaps they’ve finally found a way] [followup Nov] [*****]
A legislative leader said Tuesday that Ukrainian lawmakers had forged a three-party governing coalition that restores the alliance of President Viktor A. Yushchenko and his rival Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko, ending months of deadlock that paralyzed the country amid its worst financial crisis in a decade. [***]Volodymyr M. Lytvyn, who was re-elected as speaker of Parliament on Tuesday, said a formal agreement would be signed in the next several days. But Mr. Yushchenko’s party later issued a statement saying the alliance had not yet been formally created.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

France: Seeking End to A-Bombs

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/europe/10briefs-SEEKINGENDTO_BRF.html
December 10, 2008
World Briefing | Europe
France: Seeking End to A-Bombs
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [France and non-state actor, Richard Branson, et al.] [a serious effort to denuclearize the planet] [interesting] [one key would be effective verification and with Iran and DPRK making mockery of same, the timing probably isn’t quite right] [but nice effort] [of course under ant such agreement the affluent powerful few would retain advantage] [having built programs they would retain the practical experience as well as the HEU] [****]
Former world leaders and arms control negotiators joined the British billionaire Richard

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/europe/10briefs-SEEKINGENDTO_BRF.html
December 10, 2008
World Briefing | Europe
France: Seeking End to A-Bombs
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [France and non-state actor, Richard Branson, et al.] [a serious effort to denuclearize the planet] [interesting] [one key would be effective verification and with Iran and DPRK making mockery of same, the timing probably isn’t quite right] [but nice effort] [of course under ant such agreement the affluent powerful few would retain advantage] [having built programs they would retain the practical experience as well as the HEU] [****]
Former world leaders and arms control negotiators joined the British billionaire Richard Branson, left, and Queen Noor of Jordan in Paris on Tuesday to start an organization aimed at eliminating the world’s nuclear weapons over the next 25 years. The group, Global Zero, proposes deep cuts in American and Russian nuclear arsenals, a worldwide verification and enforcement system and a phased reduction leading to elimination of all stockpiles.

Delegations from the group will go to Moscow for talks with Russian officials on Wednesday and to Washington on Thursday. With President-elect Barack Obama and several other world leaders advocating the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons, Richard Burt, a former United States arms negotiator, said the idea, once considered radical and unrealistic, was “entering the political mainstream.” [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

U.K. Says Most Troops Will Leave Iraq

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/europe/11britain.html
December 11, 2008
U.K. Says Most Troops Will Leave Iraq
By JOHN F. BURNS [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and fault lines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [America’s British allies are saying goodbye] [****]
LONDON — Britain’s remaining troops in Iraq will begin withdrawing from the

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/europe/11britain.html
December 11, 2008
U.K. Says Most Troops Will Leave Iraq
By JOHN F. BURNS [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and fault lines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [America’s British allies are saying goodbye] [****]
LONDON — Britain’s remaining troops in Iraq will begin withdrawing from the country in March on a timetable that will aim to leave only a small training force of 300 to 400 by June, [***] according to Defense Ministry officials quoted by the BBC and several of Britain’s major newspapers on Wednesday.

The long-expected drawdown of the British force next year from its current level of 4,100 troops will bring an effective end to Britain’s role as the principal partner of the United States in the occupation of Iraq. In the invasion in March 2003, a British force of more than 46,000 troops participated in the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

In July, Prime Minister Gordon Brown already outlined a tentative plan for withdrawing most of Britain’s remaining troops early in 2009 but gave no fixed timetable and left open the number of troops who would be returning home. The Defense Ministry issued a statement after the flurry of news reports about the withdrawal that did not deny their accuracy. Although the ministry did not confirm that March would mark the beginning of the drawdown, it confirmed that the ministry was “expecting to see a fundamental change of mission in early 2009.” [if UN mandate expires on Dec 31, under what authority are the British or others operating through March?] [seems to imply that SOFAs have been established with each coalition partner or that the US-ir SOFA covers all others?] [***]

As for the timetable involved in the withdrawal, the statement added, "Our position remains that we will judge it on military advice at the time."

The leaking of the British withdrawal plan appeared to have been prompted, at least in part, by President-elect Barack Obama’s triumph in the presidential election last month, and his plans to draw up a timetable for the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.

Mr. Brown’s determination to withdraw Britain’s Iraq contingent ahead of a general election that must be held here by June 2010 has led to months of edgy negotiations with the Bush administration.

American military commanders have contingency plans for American troops to replace the departing British units at their base outside Basra, the principal city in southern Iraq, and the British news reports on Wednesday said that was now a firm plan. [***]But there has been no announcement of the shift from the Pentagon, possibly because the planning process there is now caught up with the Bush-Obama transition that will not be complete until Mr. Obama’s inauguration in January.

Britain’s plans - and its talks with Washington - have been complicated by pressure from the Bush Administration on the Brown government to couple the British drawdown in Iraq with an increase of British troop strength in Afghanistan. It is a demand that is not likely to relent under Mr. Obama, [***] who has said that he plans to increase U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan as he refocuses the American military effort to make Afghanistan the focus of the American war on terrorism.

In recent months, British officials have been unwilling to commit to increase British troop strength in Afghanistan, though there have been signs that their position may ease after Mr. Obama takes office. A force of 7,800 British soldiers - proportional to populations of Britain and the United States, a commitment similar in size to the 33,000 American troops in Afghanistan - has been engaged in fierce combat with the Taliban in the southwestern province of Helmand. The British force is second only in size to the American force among more than 30 nations that have troops in Afghanistan.

British commanders have said that they need to get their troops out of Iraq without immediately recommitting them to Afghanistan as part of a broader plan to lower the "operational tempo" of Britain’s military commitments, which have placed severe strains on Britain’s armed forces. They have also said they are reluctant to commit more British troops to Afghanistan unless other NATO nations, [***] including France and Germany, agree to step up their troop levels, and to share combat strains that have hitherto rested mainly on American, British and Canadian troops.

Meanwhile, the need to replace the departing British troops in Basra will place new strains on American commanders in Iraq. Since 2003, they have relied on British troops to maintain stability in southern Iraq and guard the vital overland supply route from Kuwait, past Basra and on into central Iraq, where most of the 130,000 American troops are based. Now, if the British reports are confirmed, they will have to detach an American force of brigade strength to the south, just as they begin drawing down their own troop levels further north.

The news reports, in The Times and The Guardian, among other British publications, quoted senior officials at the Defense Ministry as saying that the British force would be replaced by a brigade of 4,000 to 5,000 American troops, under a two-star American general, who would take over the base at Basra airport that has served as Britain’s headquarters throughout the conflict.

All but a few hundred of the British troops remaining in Iraq are based at the airport, after withdrawing from outposts in the city of Basra last year. Like the departing British troops, the American force taking over at Basra would combine the task of protecting the supply route to the north with the role of a strategic reserve to Iraqi troops in Basra and elsewhere in southern Iraq, including the troublesome city of Amarah, northeast of Basra, the British reports said.

The British withdrawal will include the special forces troops, mainly from the Special Air Service, who have been partnered with American special forces at a base outside Baghdad, the British news reports said. Special forces operations have played a vital role in the Iraq conflict, and American commanders have said in the past that the role of the British contingent, involving a few hundred men, has been central to the special forces’ success.

According to The Guardian and The Times, the 300 to 400 British service personnel who will remain after the drawdown will include a small force at the coalition forces’ headquarters in Baghdad, where a British three-star general has until now served as deputy commander to the four-star American general in overall command of coalition forces in Iraq, currently Gen. Raymond T. Odierno.

The remaining British contingent will mainly be assigned to tasks in the training of Iraq’s armed forces, including the development of the country’s fledgling navy, based at the port of Umm Qasr south of Basra, and officer training for the Iraqi army at colleges in Basra and Baghdad, the British newspaper reports said. Since early in the occupation, Iraq’s main officer training academy outside Baghdad has been mainly a British responsibility.

Prime Minister Brown and other senior officials have been saying for months that British forces have largely fulfilled the mission of stabilizing the situation in Basra and the neighboring provinces in southern Iraq, and mentoring the Iraqi forces that have taken over day-to-day responsibility for security in the region. Their goal now, they have said, is to transit to a military relationship with Iraq similar to the ones Britain has with many other developing countries, centering on training local forces. [and that’s precisely what the US needs to do] [upcoming elections; relative stability; declare victory and bring all but contingency numbers home] [***]

The withdrawal plan outlined in the British news reports appeared to have preempted a formal statement on its plans for Iraq that the government has promised to make in the parliament. The delay in making the statement appears to have reflected the delicate negotiations in recent months with Washington, and the need, since Mr. Obama’s election, to reach agreement with the incoming administration, a process likely to have been eased, at least to some extent, by Mr. Obama’s decision to retain Robert Gates, President Bush’s defense secretary, in the post.

By using a background briefing by senior defense officials to leak details of its plans to pull most of its troops out of the country in the next six months, instead of waiting for a formal statement in the House of Commons, the Brown government may have been hoping to send a political signal to opponents of the Iraq war in Britain, where opposition to the Iraq war has been intense, without appearing to jump the gun on its talks with Washington.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Campaigns Get Under Way for Provincial Elections in Iraq

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/middleeast/10iraq.html
December 10, 2008
Campaigns Get Under Way for Provincial Elections in Iraq
By ALISSA J. RUBIN [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and fault lines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [domestic challenges] [now comes the provincial elections] [****]
BAGHDAD — With provincial elections scheduled for Jan. 31, Iraqi politicians began

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/middleeast/10iraq.html
December 10, 2008
Campaigns Get Under Way for Provincial Elections in Iraq
By ALISSA J. RUBIN [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and fault lines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [domestic challenges] [now comes the provincial elections] [****]
BAGHDAD — With provincial elections scheduled for Jan. 31, Iraqi politicians began campaigning on Tuesday, taking advantage of voters’ free time as Iraqis celebrated the three-day Muslim holiday of Id al-Adha. [***]

Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, a Shiite who leads the Dawa party, and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, a Shiite cleric who leads the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, the other main party, gave speeches in which they reached out to their core constituencies. Though neither is running in the local elections, both tried to prod Iraqis to vote and to promote the local branches of their parties. [***]

Unlike politics in the West, where candidates denounce their rivals, political oratory in the Arab world is often more oblique. Mr. Maliki, who delivered his remarks in his rural home district in Karbala Province before a crowd of tribal leaders, sheiks and local dignitaries, made his case for a strong central government and for the need to keep Iraq whole. “Iraq is one tent” containing all Iraqis, regardless of whether they are Shiite or Sunni, Arab or Kurd, he said.

“We believe in Iraq’s unity, sovereignty and independence,” he said. The reference to unity was a slap at Mr. Hakim’s Supreme Council, which has encouraged provinces to form regions that, under the Constitution, could have considerable independence from Baghdad.

In Baghdad, Mr. Hakim urged Iraqis to vote and indirectly promoted his own party. He told his audience to “exercise their natural right to choose their representatives, choosing the most qualified, the most efficient and the most capable, and also elect those who sacrificed for their Iraqi people and Iraq and who are more religious, more faithful and most courageous.”

The Supreme Council, an Islamist party, has many supporters who lost family members during the rule of Saddam Hussein. Mr. Hakim, who has lung cancer, has led the party since the assassination of his brother, Mohammed Bakr al-Hakim, in Najaf in 2003. He appeared weak during his speech, but rallied to complete it and waded into the crowd to greet widows and orphans.

Separately, Iraqi security forces detained 10 suspects on Tuesday after a deadly truck bombing that killed at least six people and possibly as many as 17 last week in Falluja, a former insurgent stronghold in Anbar Province. The suspects, believed to be part of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a homegrown Sunni insurgent group that American intelligence officials believe is led by foreigners, were picked up in the insurgent stronghold of Garma and in Abu Ghraib, according to the Falluja police commander, Col. Mahmoud al-Essawi. [AQI will continue to attempt to disrupt elections and increase sectarianism] [***]
Tariq Maher contributed reporting from Baghdad, and an Iraqi employee of The New York Times from Ramadi.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Array of Strategies Are Tried to Turn Back Pirates at Sea

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/10pirates.html
December 10, 2008
Array of Strategies Are Tried to Turn Back Pirates at Sea
By MARK MCDONALD [Hong Kong] [more generally, in and around Suez passage] [Gulf of Aden and horn of Africa] [the growing challenge of pirates] [mostly Somalis but others have joined as it has become quite lucrative] [followup] [***]
HONG KONG — The increasing number of pirate attacks on the open seas has shipowners and governments desperately seeking countermeasures to stop the brazen seizures.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/10pirates.html
December 10, 2008
Array of Strategies Are Tried to Turn Back Pirates at Sea
By MARK MCDONALD [Hong Kong] [more generally, in and around Suez passage] [Gulf of Aden and horn of Africa] [the growing challenge of pirates] [mostly Somalis but others have joined as it has become quite lucrative] [followup] [***]
HONG KONG — The increasing number of pirate attacks on the open seas has shipowners and governments desperately seeking countermeasures to stop the brazen seizures.

On Monday, the European Union began a yearlong naval operation in the Gulf of Aden, where 14 ships are being held for ransom, including a Saudi supertanker and a Ukrainian ship with tanks and other military equipment aboard. [***]

Eight countries are participating in the new flotilla, code-named Operation Atalanta, which will be backed up with three airplanes. [***]Javier Solana, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said the mission would have “robust rules of engagement,” while coordinating with other navies already operating in the region, including those of the United States, India and Russia. [****]

The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution last week that allows navies to breach the 12-mile territorial limit to enter Somali waters in pursuit of pirates.

In the Gulf of Aden, 102 ships have been attacked so far this year and 40 have been hijacked. With 21,000 ships passing through the region each year and only a handful of international navies to run interference, the lure of piracy for impoverished Somalis has been extraordinary.

“Somali fishermen simply changed their business model, and they’ve got military hardware in the meantime,” said Dieter Berg, head of marine underwriting for the large reinsurance company Munich Re. “Piracy is now a real industry in Somalia. Whole clans are living off it.” [and where said clans intersect with Islamists and jihadis—which many do—piracy is funding jihad in Somalia and Africa more generally] [***]

Some pirate groups are now getting inside information in Europe about upcoming shipments of dangerous cargo and shipping routes, Mr. Berg said, the better to select their targets.

Interviews with owners, insurers, security companies and antipiracy experts suggest that all manner of technical innovations are being tried to fend off attacks, from high-tech sonic cannons to electrified wires strung around the hulls of their boats.

Some ships have put on extra crew members to stand watch around the clock. Sonic guns and night-vision goggles are in such demand in the region that their price has doubled. [***]

Foam sprayers and high-pressure fire hoses have been used to drench the speedboats used by hijackers as they approach ships. Huge floodlights have been installed on ships. Some ships are stocking sprays developed by the United States military to make decks so slippery that the pirates, if they do come aboard, would be unable to stand up. Some ships have built — and have actually used — panic rooms where crews can hide. [***]

Some well-known security companies are trying to expand into the maritime security business, offering teams of onboard guards, most of them former military combat veterans, to repel pirates.

“I’ve had lots of e-mails from these security companies offering us their services — at vast expense,” said Arthur Bowring, managing director of the Hong Kong Shipowners Association.

The effectiveness of security guards remains to be seen, and many experts on piracy and insurers do not endorse the use of armed guards. But without armed guards, some analysts say, there is no real deterrent.

“How do pirates in a small boat stop a 30,000-ton ship? It’s firearms, that’s all it is,” Andy MacDonagh, a director of the private military contractor Raven Special Projects, said in an interview with the maritime trade publication Lloyd’s List. “But as soon as you fire back, they are going to turn round and go the other way, because they’re so vulnerable.”

An unarmed three-man security team was overwhelmed by pirates who captured the chemical tanker Biscaglia in the Gulf of Aden on Nov. 28. The guards jumped overboard as the pirates clambered onto the ship. They were plucked from the water by a rescue helicopter. [***]

“Of course they went overboard,” Mr. Bowring said. “They didn’t want to sit on a beach in Somalia for three months.”

The security team, employed by Anti Piracy Maritime Security Solutions, based in Poole, England, was without firearms, but it did have water sprayers and a sonic cannon. The cannon — a long-range acoustic device, or LRAD, which can cost as much as $125,000 — shoots sound waves from a dish transmitter. The noise, if properly aimed and focused, can be debilitating at 100 meters, or 330 feet.

“The pirates were basically laughing at our guys,” said Anti Piracy’s owner, Nick Davis. “LRADs don’t work when they take an AK-47 round through them.” The pirates won that skirmish and are now negotiating a ransom for the Biscaglia’s release.

Many antipiracy advocates are pushing for the United Nations to take action. Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary general, has called for a multinational stabilization force in Somalia to pave the way for United Nations peacekeepers who would eventually deny the pirates safe harbor.

The pirates usually come in the night, in speedboats too small and too fast to be picked up by radar. When they draw alongside, pirates throw grappling hooks over the railings and scamper up the sides. “The whole thing can take five minutes,” said Noel Choong, director of the Piracy Reporting Center in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. “Once they’re on board, it’s over.”

Some hijackers throw crew members overboard, while others set them adrift in dinghies or keep them as hostages.

“It’s an incredibly traumatic time for the crew and their families,” said Mr. Bowring of the Hong Kong Shipowners Association. “An owner sends them out there, and they’re powerless to defend themselves.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

U.S. Forces Mistakenly Kill 6 Afghan Police

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/asia/11afghan.html
December 11, 2008
U.S. Forces Mistakenly Kill 6 Afghan Police
By KIRK SEMPLE [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [what is Patraeus waiting for before implementing counterinsurgency program?] [another PR disaster in the making!] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — American forces killed six Afghan police officers and one civilian

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/world/asia/11afghan.html
December 11, 2008
U.S. Forces Mistakenly Kill 6 Afghan Police
By KIRK SEMPLE [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [what is Patraeus waiting for before implementing counterinsurgency program?] [another PR disaster in the making!] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — American forces killed six Afghan police officers and one civilian Wednesday during an assault on the hideout of a suspected Taliban commander, the authorities said, in what a senior American military spokesman called a “tragic case of mistaken identity.” Thirteen Afghan security officers were also wounded in the incident.

A statement issued jointly by the American and Afghan military commands said a contingent of police officers fired on American forces after the Americans had successfully overrun the hideout, killing the suspected Taliban commander and detaining another man.

The statement said the Americans had already entered the hideout, a building in Qalat District in Zabul Province, when they came under attack by small-arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades from “a compound nearby.” [***]

“Multiple attempts to deter the engagement were unsuccessful,” the statement said.

The Americans, concerned about women and children hiding in the building, decided to return fire using small arms and aircraft, the statement said, offering no further details about the level of force the Americans employed. [using aircraft to minimize collateral damage?] [that doesn’t pass the sniff test] [***]

After the firefight, the Americans discovered they had been shooting at Afghan police officers, the statement said.

But the deputy police chief of Qalat District said the police officers had been in a police station when they came under American fire, which destroyed the building.

The official, Jailoni Khan Farahi, also said that the firing against the Americans had not originated from the police station but from another nearby building. He said he did not know who was occupying the building at the time.

“Coalition forces deeply regret the incident of mistaken fire,” said Col. Jerry O’Hara, an American military spokesman. “Initial reports indicate this was a tragic case of mistaken identity on both parts.” [****]

Zabul’s governor, Delbar Jan Arman, said a joint Afghan and American delegation of military and civilian officials was heading to the scene to conduct an investigation.
Khalid Fazly contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Pakistan Detains Extremist Leader

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/09/AR2008120903165.html
Pakistan Detains Extremist Leader
U.S., India Question Effort's Seriousness
By Joby Warrick and Rama Lakshmi
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, December 10, 2008; A01 [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [attacks may be worth it—apparently at least some al Qaeda operatives] [but my general impression remains] [breaches of sovereignty largely being wasted on tactical rather than strategic gains] [it’s now conventional wisdom that Pres Bush made the decision to go medieval in July] [however, Pakistan is cauldron of failed state, communal violence, and a citizenry that believes the US does not have Pakistan’s interests in mind—and not without good cause] [almost wholly eclipsed by Mumbai but it’s of course ongoing and serious] [use psci469b] [followup] [***]
For the second time in a decade, suspected Pakistani terrorist leader Masood Azhar

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/09/AR2008120903165.html
Pakistan Detains Extremist Leader
U.S., India Question Effort's Seriousness
By Joby Warrick and Rama Lakshmi
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, December 10, 2008; A01 [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [attacks may be worth it—apparently at least some al Qaeda operatives] [but my general impression remains] [breaches of sovereignty largely being wasted on tactical rather than strategic gains] [it’s now conventional wisdom that Pres Bush made the decision to go medieval in July] [however, Pakistan is cauldron of failed state, communal violence, and a citizenry that believes the US does not have Pakistan’s interests in mind—and not without good cause] [almost wholly eclipsed by Mumbai but it’s of course ongoing and serious] [use psci469b] [followup] [***]
For the second time in a decade, suspected Pakistani terrorist leader Masood Azhar was placed under house arrest yesterday after being linked to attacks in India. His detention, announced by Pakistan's Defense Ministry, was intended to show the country's resolve in hunting for the organizers of last month's deadly rampage in Mumbai.

Yet in the U.S. and Indian capitals, the news of Azhar's arrest drew mostly scoffs. As officials in both countries noted, Pakistan never bothered to charge the Kashmiri extremist when it detained him in connection with a deadly attack on India's Parliament in December 2001. A Pakistani judge freed him 11 months later.

The Azhar saga accounts for some of the skepticism that has surrounded Pakistan's efforts to crack down on extremists in the wake of the Nov. 26 terrorist rampage in Mumbai. Promises by Pakistani leaders to roll up militant groups have been undercut by a history of "catch-and-release" in its dealings with prominent extremists, and also by its past ambivalence -- if not outright support -- for groups that openly advocate terrorism. [absolutely, if said terrorism is aimed at Indian-controlled Kashmir or at certain groups in Indian, Pakistan, and Afghanistan] [***]

The emerging response is serving as a test of whether the U.S.-backed government in Pakistan is serious about taking on the armed Islamist groups it helped create, and if the country's powerful military and spy service will allow civilian officials to do so. Whether India believes Pakistan is helping in the investigation of one of the worst attacks on its soil in years could determine whether the two nuclear-armed nations continue a halting peace process or move closer to confrontation. Pakistan's reaction to the Mumbai assault could also prove pivotal as it confronts an escalating threat from groups that it once nurtured as weapons against enemies in India and Afghanistan but that have now turned their fire inward on Pakistan.

Under intense pressure from India and the Bush administration, Pakistan in recent days has staged a series of raids on training camps linked to Lashkar-i-Taiba, the Kashmiri-based group said by India to be behind the Mumbai siege. Pakistani officials detained Lashkar commander Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi as well as Azhar, the founder of the militant group Jaish-i-Muhammad. [but not Saeed] [***]

Yet Pakistan has balked at turning over suspects to India and has declined to release the names of most of the 22 people it has reportedly rounded up since the raids began Sunday. Despite encouraging rhetoric from senior Pakistani leaders, U.S. officials say it is not yet clear that Pakistan's government is willing, or able, to crack down on the country's anti-India extremist groups, some of which are linked to al-Qaeda.

While U.S. officials applauded the Pakistani efforts -- especially the arrest of Lakhvi -- they have not been able to independently confirm anything about the other detainees, including "whether they are, in fact, Lashkar members," said one senior U.S. counterterrorism official who is closely monitoring Pakistan's response.

"It remains to be seen," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of diplomatic sensitivities. "There have been instances in the past where the Pakistanis arrested extremists after terrorist attacks on India but released them several months later, after the international pressure eased up."

Also unclear, according to U.S. officials and private analysts, is whether the government of newly elected President Asif Ali Zardari can move effectively against the insurgents without the full support of the military and the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency, or ISI, which have undermined similar attempts in the past. [***]

"The writ of the state is eroding," said Kamran Bokhari, director of Middle East analysis for Stratfor, a private intelligence company. "It's not just an issue of intent, but an issue of capability. Can these guys deliver?"

Zardari has described the Mumbai gunmen as "criminals, attackers and murderers," and there were signs that his administration was ready to match rhetoric with action. Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, who flew to Islamabad for high-level talks immediately after the Mumbai assault, found senior Pakistani officials sobered and awakening, perhaps for the first time, [***]to the magnitude of the problem they face, according to sources close to the admiral. While recognizing that they have to take decisive action against extremists, sources said, the Pakistanis also realize that a domestic backlash, both politically and in terms of terrorism, is the inevitable result.

U.S. officials have been pressing Pakistan to take aggressive measures in a series of private meetings and public events. Gen. David H. Petraeus, former U.S. commander in Iraq and now head of the U.S. Central Command, said in a speech yesterday that insurgent havens in Pakistan remain a "significant concern," adding that the Mumbai siege "highlights the extent of the challenges Pakistan faces."

Pakistan and India have fought three wars since 1947, and resentments run deep, particularly in the disputed territory of Kashmir. For many Pakistanis, the prospect of turning over citizens to India to face terrorism charges is too much to stomach, some analysts said.

"Pakistan doesn't want to be seen as caving to political pressure from India," said Robert Grenier, a former CIA station chief in Islamabad and now managing director of Kroll, a risk consulting firm. Because of the torrent of rhetoric from both countries after the rampage, many old wounds have reopened, and opportunities for real cooperation have diminished, he said. "The atmosphere has been greatly complicated if not poisoned," Grenier said.

As of late yesterday, most of the 20 Pakistani nationals whom India has demanded that Pakistan arrest and turn over remained at large. Only two days before the start of Pakistan's raids on Lashkar camps, Lashkar founder Hafiz Sayeed gave a public lecture at a mosque in the eastern Pakistani city of Lahore. [***]The mosque is controlled by Jamaat-ud-Dawa, an organization described by U.S. intelligence officials as a front group for Lashkar.

On Monday, police officials in Lahore said they planned to shut down the facilities of banned militant religious groups. But the Jamaat-ud-Dawa mosque and headquarters remained open hours later, and it was unclear whether Sayeed would face arrest. [***]

The arrests that Pakistan has made came only after the U.S. applied heavy pressure on Zardari and Pakistan's military leadership. They came nearly two weeks after the deadly assault on India's financial capital, in which 10 gunmen opened fire at a restaurant and train station and laid siege to two luxury hotels and a Jewish prayer center, killing more than 170 people, including six Americans, and wounding at least 230. Indian officials yesterday released the names of the 10 gunmen and said they were all Pakistani nationals who belonged to Lashkar.

In Mumbai, chief police investigator Rakesh Maria released what he said were the addresses of the nine gunmen killed in the attack, along with photos of eight of them. All were 20 to 28 years old, and most were from Punjab province in Pakistan's heartland, [***] far from the North-West Frontier Province that has been the front line in Pakistan's growing insurgency. One gunman was captured.

A senior Indian official dismissed Pakistan's raids as nothing new, and far short of the "concrete action" demanded by the scale of the carnage in Mumbai. "We have been there and we have traversed that road before," he said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "Let us wait and see if there will be a realistic change on the ground."

Lakshmi reported from New Delhi. Correspondents Candace Rondeaux in Islamabad and Emily Wax in Mumbai and staff writer Karen DeYoung and news researcher Julie Tate in Washington contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Pakistan Moves to Curb Group Linked to Attacks

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/asia/10pstan.html
December 10, 2008
Pakistan Moves to Curb Group Linked to Attacks
By JANE PERLEZ [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [attacks may be worth it—apparently at least some al Qaeda operatives] [but my general impression remains] [breaches of sovereignty largely being wasted on tactical rather than strategic gains] [it’s now conventional wisdom that Pres Bush made the decision to go medieval in July] [however, Pakistan is cauldron of failed state, communal violence, and a citizenry that believes the US does not have Pakistan’s interests in mind—and not without good cause] [almost wholly eclipsed by Mumbai but it’s of course ongoing and serious] [use psci469b] [followup] [***]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistani authorities widened their efforts to curb militant

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/asia/10pstan.html
December 10, 2008
Pakistan Moves to Curb Group Linked to Attacks
By JANE PERLEZ [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [attacks may be worth it—apparently at least some al Qaeda operatives] [but my general impression remains] [breaches of sovereignty largely being wasted on tactical rather than strategic gains] [it’s now conventional wisdom that Pres Bush made the decision to go medieval in July] [however, Pakistan is cauldron of failed state, communal violence, and a citizenry that believes the US does not have Pakistan’s interests in mind—and not without good cause] [almost wholly eclipsed by Mumbai but it’s of course ongoing and serious] [use psci469b] [followup] [***]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistani authorities widened their efforts to curb militant groups, including Lashkar-e-Taiba, the one suspected of conducting the Mumbai attacks, raiding some of their properties and arresting about 20 members, [***]security officials said Tuesday.

The Pakistani defense minister, Ahmad Mukhtar, on Tuesday told an Indian television channel, CNN-IBN, that Maulana Masood Azhar, the leader of another militant group, Jaish-e-Muhammad, had been placed under house arrest. [***]

Bush administration officials publicly praised the steps, which Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, demanded during their visits to the region last week.

“These are good and important steps and could potentially serve the cause of preventing further attacks,” a State Department spokesman, Sean McCormack, told reporters in Washington. “That’s the last thing that either side needs.”

But questions remained about how far the Pakistani government would rein in the groups, which have functioned as an arm of Pakistan’s military and intelligence services for two decades. Details of exactly what the government had actually done so far remained unclear. [***]

Pakistan said Tuesday that it had arrested Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, the operational leader of Lashkar-e-Taiba, during a raid on Sunday on a camp outside Muzaffarabad, the capital of the Pakistani-controlled region of Kashmir. Mr. Lakhvi has been described as the mastermind of the Mumbai attacks. [***]

But a senior American official said there was no independent proof of his capture, and it was not clear whether the Lashkar members the Pakistanis said they had rounded up Monday at offices and camps were fighters or senior commanders. [***]

American counterterrorism officials in Washington privately struck a skeptical tone, saying that they wanted to see proof that Mr. Lakhvi was actually in custody and that the arrests and raids actually represented a firm commitment by the government to crack down on the groups.

“In the past when they’ve promised to move against these guys, they’d pick up one or two of them and then several months later, they’d release them,” said a senior American official who has dealt with Pakistani authorities for several years.

“Based on past patterns, we shouldn’t expect much of this,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly on the case.

Administration officials said they were watching India’s reaction to Pakistan’s words and deeds to gauge whether the raids and arrests would ease tensions between the countries. [****]

“There’s a practical part of this — will these arrests lead to preventing further attacks and bringing people to justice,” one senior administration official said, “and there’s a political dimension — to what extent does this lower tensions between the two countries.”

Pakistani officials have indicated in the past few days that there were no plans for a large-scale crackdown on Lashkar-e-Taiba, a group founded in the 1980s by the Pakistani Army to fight a proxy war against India in Kashmir. [just as Taliban created by army-ISI control Afghan] [***]

Such a crackdown would run counter to popular sentiment and would appear to be at the behest of India and the United States, a politically unpalatable perception for Pakistan’s government. [***]

The Pakistani foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, said Tuesday that those detained so far would not be extradited to India. “They are Pakistani citizens and will be dealt with according to the law of the land,” he said.

Mr. Qureshi said Pakistan had offered India the chance to carry out a joint investigation of the terrorist attacks but had not yet received a reply. [***]

President Asif Ali Zardari promised after the attacks that he would do what he could to stop Pakistan from being used as a launching pad by “nonstate actors,” a reference to militants.

In an Op-Ed page article in The New York Times on Tuesday, Mr. Zardari said Pakistan was committed to bringing the perpetrators to justice and denied that they had any connection to the government. “For India, Pakistan and the United States, the best response to the Mumbai carnage is to coordinate in counteracting the scourge of terrorism,” he wrote.

Under pressure from the United States, Pakistan banned Lashkar in 2002 after it was accused of orchestrating an attack against the Indian Parliament.

But the Pakistani Army and its premier spy agency, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, has kept the group alive, regarding the fighters from Lashkar as reservists who could be called on according to need, [***]the diplomats said.

It would be difficult, they said, for the army, the most powerful institution in Pakistan, to quickly abandon its policy of nurturing militants, even after the embarrassment of the Mumbai siege.

“The agenda of the establishment is to find a way out of this morass with the least damage to the institutions of the army and the ISI,” a prominent Pakistani politician said on the condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the matter. [***]

President Zardari, the politician said, had a different agenda of “pleasing the Americans.”

The United States has said that it cannot discern the involvement of the Pakistani military in the planning and operation of the Mumbai attacks.

Rather, it appeared that the assaults presented a predicament for Pakistan’s military because they showed that a group that had been protected had gotten out of control, said a Western diplomat, [**] who spoke on the condition of anonymity according to diplomatic custom.

“Pakistan needs to make a profound change in its attitude to Lashkar-e-Taiba, and that doesn’t seem to have happened yet,” the Western diplomat said.

An important sign of whether Pakistan was serious in shutting down Lashkar would be if the group were demobilized by the government, and its fighters given alternative employment, experts on jihadist groups said.

After the ban in 2002, the United States and Britain tried to persuade Pakistan to demobilize the fighters but failed to do so, the experts said. Instead thousands of members were rounded up and then quietly released.

The groups were then offered a trade-off, the diplomats said. They were directed to slow down their militant activities against the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir but were allowed to transfer their assets to Pakistan’s tribal areas. There, some Lashkar members have worked alongside the Pakistani Taliban, the diplomats said.

Since the start of the current roundup of Lashkar members, the group’s founder, Hafiz Muhammed Saeed, has not been arrested. He remains at his headquarters in Lahore, [***] where he gave the sermon at Friday Prayer last week.

Mr. Saeed, a firebrand speaker who laces his speeches with anti-Semitic and anti-Indian statements, now calls himself the leader of Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the charity that is Lashkar’s parent. [***]

So far, the charity, which runs more than 100 Islamic schools and has hundreds of thousands of adherents, the experts on jihadist groups say, has remained untouched by the authorities.
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

In India, Muslims Mark a Somber Eid

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/09/AR2008120903084.html
In India, Muslims Mark a Somber Eid
Celebrations Subdued After Mumbai Siege
By Emily Wax
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, December 10, 2008; A18 [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [a somber end to Ramadan as India’s Muslims must be on edge] [****]
MUMBAI, Dec. 9 -- Ahsaan Qureshi, one of India's most popular comics, usually hosts a

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/09/AR2008120903084.html
In India, Muslims Mark a Somber Eid
Celebrations Subdued After Mumbai Siege
By Emily Wax
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, December 10, 2008; A18 [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [a somber end to Ramadan as India’s Muslims must be on edge] [****]
MUMBAI, Dec. 9 -- Ahsaan Qureshi, one of India's most popular comics, usually hosts a posh party to mark the Muslim festival of Eid al-Adha. His wife gets her hands decorated with red swirls of henna. His children dress in their swankiest clothes, eating sweets and setting off firecrackers late into the night. Family friends come over and dine on vats of biryani, an Indian version of jambalaya.

But after a series of coordinated attacks late last month across Mumbai, India's financial capital and largest city, Qureshi, 45, like many of the country's 140 million Muslims, held a much more subdued Eid on Tuesday, mainly out of respect for those who died in the three-day siege. [***]

"There is no glitz and glamour this year," said Qureshi, who was a star on the "Great Indian Laughter Challenge" stand-up show and has been featured in several Indian films. "I speak for many Muslims when I say we are all in a great deal of pain. It's not a happy Eid." [***]

From the ancient walled city of Jaipur in the northwest to the streets of Kolkata in the east, India's Muslims have held somber vigils to show their solidarity in condemning the attacks.

This week, leaders of the All India Organization of Imams of Mosques asked Muslims to wear black bands on their shoulders as a symbol of loyalty to their homeland. Muslim groups in Mumbai, meanwhile, have brought tea and cookies to many of the victims still recuperating at the city's hospitals. "Long live Mother India" and "Our country's enemies are our enemies," one group of young Muslim students called out during an Eid candlelight gathering to protest the attacks. [hope it lasts] [sadly, similar unity after 9/11 did not last long in US] [***]

The displays of solidarity come amid fresh fears of sectarian strife between India's Muslim and Hindu communities. Communal riots have plagued Mumbai before, particularly in December 1992 and January 1993, when hundreds of people died. [***]Riots in the western state of Gujarat in 2002 left more than 1,000 Muslims and Hindus dead in the worst display of sectarian violence since the bloody partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947. In recent months, a series of deadly bombings have been linked to either Muslim or Hindu extremists.

Indian Muslims -- who represent about 10 [according to CIA’s World Factbook, 13.4%] [***] percent of the country's population -- are by and large eager to separate themselves from the alleged Islamist extremists who carried out last month's Mumbai attacks. They are also quick to point out that a third of the 171 victims were Muslim. [**]

"Muslims in India are a suspect and separate minority," said Vivek Kumar, a sociology professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. "Islam is a huge part of India's history, its architecture. But, of course, Muslims are deeply rattled now. They fear they will be branded Pakistani."

Muslims around the world usually celebrate Eid by slaughtering sheep, goats and cows to commemorate the prophet Abraham's willingness to sacrifice his son, Ismail, on God's command. This year, Muslim leaders asked that no cows be killed out of respect for the Hindu belief that cattle are sacred. Muslim leaders have also refused to allow the bodies of the nine fighters killed in the attacks to be buried in Islamic cemeteries. In sermons and in street demonstrations, Muslims have said they, too, want tougher laws and a stepped-up fight against terrorist attacks. [***]

"We are calling for justice in Pakistan just as much as anyone," said Abbasali Jannati, 33, a Muslim home designer, who spent a recent afternoon walking through the Colaba neighborhood, the location of many of the attacks.

In Gujarat, six years after the sectarian violence, Muslims remain angry and aggrieved. Many who lost their homes in the riots are now living in India's largest Muslim ghetto. The violence erupted after 59 Hindus were burned to death on a train as they returned home from a pilgrimage. At the time, Muslim extremists were blamed for the fire. But the cause of the blaze remains in dispute, and one government panel has said it was an accident. [***]

At mosques in Gujarat on Tuesday, worshipers observed a moment of silence, said Chiraag Sheik, a Muslim social activist.

Muslims in India tend to be poorer than their Hindu neighbors. Some Muslims complained this week that they were having trouble renting houses, and others said they were being watched closely when entering businesses. [***]

Near an Islamic prayer cap store and in front of a popular mosque in Mumbai, friends gathered in a narrow alleyway after prayers to console Mohammed Rafique, 45, who had been at the landmark Taj Mahal Palace & Tower hotel, the scene of much of the carnage.

"We all have felt the horror," said Rafique, a driver, who was inside the hotel to help organize a wedding party. "I just hope my Hindu brethren don't blame us. We have suffered greatly, too."
Special correspondent Pragya Krishna in New Delhi contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

India Wants Pakistani Group Added to U.N.’s Terrorism List

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/10nations.html
December 10, 2008
India Wants Pakistani Group Added to U.N.’s Terrorism List
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [India releasing new info and more or less demanding Pakistan crackdown on Lashkar and others] [****]
UNITED NATIONS — India has submitted a formal request to put the group Jamaat-ud-

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/10nations.html
December 10, 2008
India Wants Pakistani Group Added to U.N.’s Terrorism List
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [India releasing new info and more or less demanding Pakistan crackdown on Lashkar and others] [****]
UNITED NATIONS — India has submitted a formal request to put the group Jamaat-ud-Dawa and its leader on the list of individuals and organizations sanctioned by the United Nations for being associated with terrorism. [***]

The request, which was distributed to all 15 Security Council member states on Tuesday, accused the organization and its leader, Hafiz Muhammed Saeed, of being virtually interchangeable with Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group believed to have carried out the terrorist attacks in Mumbai last month. [***]

Ostensibly, Jamaat-ud-Dawa acts as a separate charitable and educational organization. But the Indian request, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times, said that the close links between the organizations, as well as the 2,500 offices and 11 seminaries that Jamaat-ud-Dawa maintains in Pakistan, “are of immediate concern with regard to their efforts to mobilize and orchestrate terrorist activities.” [***]

The Security Council held a general discussion on the global terrorist threat on Tuesday, during which E. Ahamed, India’s minister of state for external affairs, said that “Jamaat-ud-Dawa and other such organizations need to be proscribed internationally and effective sanctions imposed against them.”

“Their country of origin needs to take urgent steps to stop their functioning,” he said, in a clear but indirect reference to Pakistan. [***]

But the note distributed by the sanctions committee to its members said that the United States, backed by Britain and France, had tried to add Mr. Saeed to the list last May but was blocked by China. A similar attempt directed against the organization in April 2006 was also blocked by China, [***] [I’m not sure why China would block it?] [the one thing that comes to mind is an attempt to placate China’s Muslims (mostly Uighurs) but China has alienated Uighurs big time so that’s unlikely] [***] the note said.

Nicole Deaner, a spokeswoman for the United States Mission to the United Nations, said it would not comment about its efforts with the sanctions committee. The Chinese Mission also declined to comment.

Pakistan has not officially acknowledged any role by either Jamaat-ud-Dawa or Lashkar-e-Taiba in the Mumbai attacks, saying it was waiting for India to share information. But Pakistan will not oppose United Nations sanctions against the organization or its leader as a “good-will gesture,” [***]said a Pakistani diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

The Indian request describes Mr. Saeed as an adherent of the Hanbali school of Islam, the most puritan strain, whose most famous sect is the Wahhabi branch in Saudi Arabia. [also sometime known as Deobandi] [***[
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Mumbai Attackers Called Part of Larger Band of Recruits

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/asia/10mumbai.html
December 10, 2008
Mumbai Attackers Called Part of Larger Band of Recruits
By JEREMY KAHN and ROBERT F. WORTH [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for India’s help] at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [****]
MUMBAI, India — The Mumbai police said Tuesday that the 10 men who carried out the

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/asia/10mumbai.html
December 10, 2008
Mumbai Attackers Called Part of Larger Band of Recruits
By JEREMY KAHN and ROBERT F. WORTH [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for India’s help] at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [****]
MUMBAI, India — The Mumbai police said Tuesday that the 10 men who carried out the terrorist attacks here last month were among 30 recruits selected for suicide missions, and that the whereabouts of the other 20 were unknown. [***]

It was the first time the Indian police disclosed the larger number of recruits, all of whom belonged to the Pakistani militant organization Lashkar-e-Taiba. The police said there was no reason to believe that the other 20 were in India, but expressed concern about that possibility. [***]

“Another 20 were ready to die,” Deven Bharti, a Mumbai Police deputy commissioner, said in an interview. “This is the very disturbing part of it.”

The Indian police have consistently maintained that only 10 gunmen participated in the attacks in Mumbai last month that left 171 people dead, including nine of the gunmen, and raised tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan to the highest level in years.

Mr. Bharti said the information about the other 20 recruits came from the sole surviving attacker, Muhammad Ajmal Kasab, who was arrested during the attacks and has been in police custody ever since. [***]

Mr. Bharti also said that according to Mr. Kasab, the 30 recruits were provided with highly specialized training, including marine combat skills. [***]

Once Mr. Kasab and his nine fellow attackers were selected by Lashkar leaders, they were sequestered in a house for three months, [***]the deputy commissioner said. There they were divided into two-man teams, each team assigned a different target in Mumbai to attack — information they were forbidden to share with one another. [***]

They never saw the other 20 trainees again, Mr. Bharti said, according to the information provided by Mr. Kasab.

The Indian police also provided more names and photographs of the Mumbai attackers on Tuesday, and supplied new details of the weaponry and communications and navigation equipment they used during the assault. [***]

The authorities had already identified two of the gunmen: Mr. Kasab, from the village of Faridkot, Pakistan, and Ismail Khan, from Dera Ismail Khan, Pakistan.

The eight remaining gunmen were identified by the police, sometimes only by first names and with varying degrees of location of their origins in Pakistan. The eight were listed as Hafiz Arshad from Multan; Javed from Okara; Shoaib from Narowal; Nazih from Faisalbad; Nasr from Faisalbad; Babr Imran from Multan; Abdul Rahman from Arifwalla; and Fahad Ullah from Dipalpur Taluka.

The police also provided photographs of the gunmen. Five of the pictures were taken from identity cards the men were carrying; three others were morgue shots showing horribly burned and damaged faces. [***]One attacker was burned beyond recognition, the police said.

Each of the men had aliases, and they knew one another only by those aliases during their training, the police said. Only in the final days before the attack, while they traveled by boat from Karachi, Pakistan, across the Arabian Sea to Mumbai, did they learn their comrades’ true names, [***]said Rakesh Maria, Mumbai’s joint police commissioner.

At a news conference in Mumbai, Mr. Maria said that each attacker carried a dozen grenades, a 9-millimeter handgun with two 18-round clips and an AK-47, seven to nine 30-round magazines and more than 100 rounds of loose ammunition. [***]

Mr. Maria said the police suspected that the terrorists had been trained to conserve their ammunition to let them hold out against security forces for as long as possible. “They fired only in short bursts,” he said.

Mr. Maria had said previously that each terrorist also carried a 17.6-pound bomb. Three of these bombs were recovered and defused, while the others exploded during the attacks. [***]

To navigate to Mumbai by sea and to find some targets, the terrorists used Global Positioning System handsets. The police have now recovered four of them, including one found in the past few days in the charred remains of the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower hotel room where two terrorists made their final stand. Each attacker also carried a cellphone to communicate with his handlers. So far, the police have recovered nine of them, two of which are badly damaged. [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Man Linked to Sept. 11 Hijackers Is Released

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/asia/10malaysia.html
December 10, 2008
Man Linked to Sept. 11 Hijackers Is Released
By REUTERS [Malaysia] [SEAsia] [jihadis in SEA] [Islam] [dating back to 9/11 plots] [there have been a few things since] [and a couple years ago, Malaysia security warned of coming plots that never yet materizlized?] [use psci 469] [*****]
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (Reuters) — Malaysia has released five men held on suspicion of terrorism, including one who has been linked to the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States, [***]the country’s home minister said Wednesday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/asia/10malaysia.html
December 10, 2008
Man Linked to Sept. 11 Hijackers Is Released
By REUTERS [Malaysia] [SEAsia] [jihadis in SEA] [Islam] [dating back to 9/11 plots] [there have been a few things since] [and a couple years ago, Malaysia security warned of coming plots that never yet materizlized?] [use psci 469] [*****]
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (Reuters) — Malaysia has released five men held on suspicion of terrorism, including one who has been linked to the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States, [***]the country’s home minister said Wednesday.

Home Minister Syed Hamid Albar, who is in charge of security, said that a man linked to the Jemaah Islamiyah militant network had been freed Thursday, along with two from a Thai separatist group and two Malaysians suspected of working for foreign intelligence groups. [***]

Mr. Syed told reporters at Parliament that he believed that Yazid Sufaat, a Malaysian who the police suspected had provided lodging for two of the Sept. 11 hijackers, was among them. [***]

In 2002, a Malaysian official said that he doubted that Mr. Yazid knew of Al Qaeda’s plans for Sept. 11.

Mr. Yazid also was suspected by the American authorities of having helped the convicted Sept. 11 conspirator Zacarias Moussaoui with money and references. [**]

Further, there have been published allegations that in conjunction with Al Qaeda he had spent time in Afghanistan in 2001 trying to cultivate anthrax. [***]

Of the newly released terrorism suspects, Mr. Syed said, “They are no longer a threat but they will be watched closely.”

The Singapore Straits Times newspaper reported earlier that as many as a dozen people linked to Jemaah Islamiah and interned under Malaysia’s Internal Security Act had been released. [recent reports have suggested that JI is washed up around the region] [Abu Sayyef still rump group and Moro Liberation trying to strike deal with Manilla] [***]

Mr. Yazid, a 1987 graduate of California State University in Sacramento who has a degree in biochemistry and is in his mid-40s, set up a pathology laboratory in Malaysia.

Jemaah Islamiah has been implicated in a series of bombing attacks around Southeast Asia in recent years, including the nightclub attacks in Bali, Indonesia, that killed 202 people in October 2002.

Last month, Indonesia executed three men convicted in those attacks, raising fears of possible reprisal attacks. [***]

Jemaah Islamiah has been quiet lately, after an elite Indonesian force began rounding up members and killed one of its top leaders. The group’s tactics have also been criticized by Muslims in Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation, who say their attacks have killed many Muslims and damaged the image of Islam. [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Student Gets Life in German Train-Bombing Plot

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/09/AR2008120902704.html
Student Gets Life in German Train-Bombing Plot
By Craig Whitlock
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, December 10, 2008; A20 [germany] [EU] [hydra] [jihadis] [followup] [German al Qaeda sympathizer] [al Qaeda 2.0] [use psci469b] [Lebanese students in Germany upset over Danish cartoon controversy] [note: different than September incident wherein suspects pulled from plane in Germany] [ditto] [****]
LONDON, Dec. 9 -- A Lebanese college student was convicted and sentenced to life in

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/09/AR2008120902704.html
Student Gets Life in German Train-Bombing Plot
By Craig Whitlock
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, December 10, 2008; A20 [germany] [EU] [hydra] [jihadis] [followup] [German al Qaeda sympathizer] [al Qaeda 2.0] [use psci469b] [Lebanese students in Germany upset over Danish cartoon controversy] [note: different than September incident wherein suspects pulled from plane in Germany] [ditto] [****]
LONDON, Dec. 9 -- A Lebanese college student was convicted and sentenced to life in prison Tuesday for his role in a 2006 plot to plant suitcase bombs on two German commuter trains. [***]

Youssef Mohammed el-Hajdib, 24, was found guilty by a German court in the city of Duesseldorf of attempted murder and other crimes. Although the bombs failed to detonate, a prosecutor, Duscha Gmel, said, “Germany has never been closer to an Islamist attack than in this case.” [***]

Hajdib, who was living in Germany to pursue his education, admitted plotting with another man to leave the suitcases on two trains that departed the city of Cologne on July 31, 2006. He said they were angered by the publication in German newspapers of cartoons lampooning the prophet Muhammad and Muslims as terrorists. [***]

Hajdib asserted that the devices were rigged so that they could not explode and were meant to only scare the public. "I swear by God almighty that I had no intention to kill anyone," he said during testimony on Dec. 3.

A panel of judges didn't believe him. "The fact that it did not come to a devastating bloodbath with a multitude of deaths was thanks only to an error by the defendant . . . in constructing the bombs," said Ottmar Breidling, the presiding judge in the case.

Hajdib was given a life sentence, although under normal practice in Germany, defendants rarely serve more than 15 years behind bars.

He did not speak after his conviction and sentence were read aloud in court. But he flashed an obscene gesture to reporters in the courtroom as he was led away. [***]

Bernd Rosenkranz, a lawyer for Hajdib, said his client would appeal.

Hajdib came to Germany in 2004 to attend college, but he had a tough time with his studies and gradually became radicalized, according to testimony during the year-long trial. [***]

Witnesses said he tried to persuade other Muslims to become extremists and made no secret of his admiration for Osama bin Laden, although there was no evidence that he joined any organized terrorist groups or acted on their behalf. [***]

Authorities said he built the bombs with Jihad Hamad, another Lebanese national studying in Germany. Security cameras captured the pair loading the suitcases at the Cologne train station.

Police said the devices consisted of propane tanks hidden inside the suitcases. Gasoline, diesel fuel and nails were added to the mix in an attempt to magnify their destructive power, court officials said.

Police estimated that each suitcase bomb, if it had exploded as designed, could have resulted in a fireball up to 50 feet in diameter and killed scores of people, court spokesman Ulrich Eggers told reporters after the verdict.

Hajdib and Hamad fled Germany after planting the bombs on the trains. They flew to Istanbul and then traveled to their native Lebanon. Hajdib returned to Germany months later and was arrested. [***]

Hamad was arrested in Lebanon and tried there for his role in the crime. He was found guilty in December 2007 and sentenced to 12 years in prison. [***\
Special correspondent Shannon Smiley in Berlin contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Life Sentence for Failed Bomb Attempt in Germany

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/europe/10germany.html
December 10, 2008
Life Sentence for Failed Bomb Attempt in Germany
By NICHOLAS KULISH [germany] [EU] [hydra] [jihadis] [followup] [German al Qaeda sympathizer] [al Qaeda 2.0] [use psci469b] [Lebanese students in Germany upset over Danish cartoon controversy] [note: different than September incident wherein suspects pulled from plane in Germany] [******]
BERLIN — One of the two men behind a failed terrorist attack on commuter trains here received a life sentence from a German court [***]on Tuesday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/europe/10germany.html
December 10, 2008
Life Sentence for Failed Bomb Attempt in Germany
By NICHOLAS KULISH [germany] [EU] [hydra] [jihadis] [followup] [German al Qaeda sympathizer] [al Qaeda 2.0] [use psci469b] [Lebanese students in Germany upset over Danish cartoon controversy] [note: different than September incident wherein suspects pulled from plane in Germany] [******]
BERLIN — One of the two men behind a failed terrorist attack on commuter trains here received a life sentence from a German court [***]on Tuesday.

The man, Youssef Muhammad el-Hajdib, was convicted on multiple counts of attempted murder for leaving two suitcase bombs on the trains in Cologne in July 2006, which failed to explode. [***]The unsuccessful attack, reminiscent of the train bombing that killed 191 people in Madrid in 2004, deeply rattled Germany, which had just finished hosting some two million visitors for the World Cup soccer tournament.

Mr. Hajdib, 24, and his lawyers argued that the propane gas devices were never meant to explode and that the attack was staged to incite fear.

The regional superior court in Düsseldorf agreed instead with prosecutors that Germany “never stood closer to an Islamist attack.” [***]

“The fact that it did not result in a devastating bloodbath with a multitude of dead was only thanks to a construction error by the culprit and his accomplice in building the detonation devices,” said Ottmar Breidling, the presiding judge in the case. “It was their explicit aim to kill as many nonbelievers as possible.” [***]

Germany has not suffered a successful Islamist terrorist attack, as Britain, Spain and the United States have, but security officials say there have been several narrow misses. The Sept. 11 attacks were planned and organized in part in Hamburg. [***]

The police found the two unexploded suitcase bombs on trains in Dortmund and Koblenz. Mr. Hajdib was arrested in Kiel several weeks later, after the police released video from surveillance cameras showing Mr. Hajdib and his accomplice, Jihad Hamad, boarding trains with large suitcases at a Cologne train station.

German officials credited Lebanon’s military intelligence agency for intercepting a panicked phone call Mr. Hajdib made to his family after the video of him was broadcast here. [***]Mr. Hamad surrendered to the police in Tripoli.

A Lebanese court convicted Mr. Hamad last year and sentenced him to 12 years in prison for the failed bombing. The two men were motivated in part by anger over the publication in 2005 of cartoons in Denmark depicting the Prophet Muhammad, according to an investigator in the case. [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Pakistan Confirms Arrests of Militants

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/asia/10pstan.html
December 10, 2008
Pakistan Confirms Arrests of Militants
By JANE PERLEZ and SALMAN MASOOD [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [attacks may be worth it—apparently at least some al Qaeda operatives] [but my general impression remains] [breaches of sovereignty largely being wasted on tactical rather than strategic gains] [it’s now conventional wisdom that Pres Bush made the decision to go medieval in July] [however, Pakistan is cauldron of failed state, communal violence, and a citizenry that believes the US does not have Pakistan’s interests in mind—and not without good cause] [almost wholly eclipsed by Mumbai but it’s of course ongoing and serious] [use psci469b] [***]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The Pakistan government publicly confirmed for the first

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/world/asia/10pstan.html
December 10, 2008
Pakistan Confirms Arrests of Militants
By JANE PERLEZ and SALMAN MASOOD [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [attacks may be worth it—apparently at least some al Qaeda operatives] [but my general impression remains] [breaches of sovereignty largely being wasted on tactical rather than strategic gains] [it’s now conventional wisdom that Pres Bush made the decision to go medieval in July] [however, Pakistan is cauldron of failed state, communal violence, and a citizenry that believes the US does not have Pakistan’s interests in mind—and not without good cause] [almost wholly eclipsed by Mumbai but it’s of course ongoing and serious] [use psci469b] [***]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The Pakistan government publicly confirmed for the first time on Tuesday that its forces had seized two militant leaders, including the operational commander of Lashkar-e-Taiba, [***]the group suspected by India and the United States of carrying out the Mumbai attacks.

The confirmation of the arrest of the Lashkar leader, Zaki ur-Rehman Lakhvi, [***]was made by Pakistani Defense Minister Ahmad Mukhtar in an interview on Indian television. [***]It was the furthest the authorities in Pakistan have yet gone in publicly acknowledging the possible complicity of Lashkar-e-Taiba in the Mumbai attacks last month, which killed 171.

Mr. Mukhtar identified the second militant leader arrested as Masood Azhar, head of Jaish-e-Muhammad, [***]another banned militant group based in Pakistan.

Mr. Azhar, who was freed in 1999 in exchange for hostages on a hijacked Indian Airlines plane in Kandahar, Afghanistan, was on a list presented to Pakistan by the Indian government days after the attacks in Mumbai. The list contained the names of 20 suspects wanted in connection with other terrorist attacks [***]and pending criminal cases.

Mr. Lakhvi “has been picked up,” Mr. Mukhtar said, according to the television channel, CNN-IBN. “About Masood Azhar, I don’t think we had decided yesterday to pick him up but our president is determined that we remove all irritants and as a small irritant he has been picked up.” He said that President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan was “determined that we must cooperate with India.” [***]

Mr. Zardari himself, in an op-ed article published in the Tuesday edition of The New York Times, said Pakistan feels India’s pain and that Pakistan “is committed to the pursuit, arrest, trial and punishment of anyone involved in these heinous attacks.” But Mr. Zardari also cautioned India against what he called “hasty judgments and inflammatory statements.”

After mounting pressure from the United States and India, Pakistani authorities on Sunday raided a camp run by Lashkar-e-Taiba in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani-administered Kashmir, [***]Pakistani and American officials said.

That operation appeared to be Pakistan’s first concrete response to the demands from India and the United States to take action against the militants suspected in the attacks, which have raised tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors to their highest point in years. [***]

Since then, the authorities have carried out raids on at least five more offices of Lashkar-e-Taiba, [***]the Associated Press reported Tuesday, citing an unidentified senior Pakistani security official. The official said that 20 more people had been arrested. [***]

It was unclear from the defense minister’s remarks whether Mr. Lakhvi was detained in the first raid on Sunday. Lashkar-e-Taiba was founded 20 years ago with the help of Pakistan’s intelligence agencies as a proxy force to challenge Indian control of part of Muslim-dominated Kashmir. [just as ISI largely created Taliban to control Afghanistan] [**]

American intelligence and counterterrorism officials told The New York Times that Pakistan’s spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, continued nurturing the group, even after 9/11, when the Pakistani government pledged to sever its ties with militant groups. [the question remains how many sympathizers still exist in ISI?] [***]

While investigators and intelligence officials say there is no hard evidence linking Pakistan’s spy agency to the Mumbai attacks, they have pointed to Lashkar as the likely culprit.

The Pakistani government has resisted the notion that Pakistani citizens may have been involved in the Mumbai attacks, and it has so far refused to hand over the 20 criminal and terrorist suspects long demanded by the Indians.

The raid on Sunday appeared to be the first step by the Pakistanis that at least tacitly recognized the American and Indian claims. [***]

Counterterrorism experts familiar with the behavior of the Pakistani security services said there was a need by Pakistan to be seen to be doing something to alleviate the American and Indian pressure, as well as to avert the possibility of an Indian military strike. [***]

Still, the effectiveness of that action might be less than India or the United States would like, they said. In the past, Pakistan detained militants under pressure from the United States and Britain, and then quietly let them go, [***]said Sajjan M. Gohel, a director of the Asia-Pacific Foundation in London.

A senior Pakistani official said the operation was part of a gradual effort to bring the militants under control. This accords with the general view among civilian politicians that Pakistan cannot afford to appear as if it is being coerced into shutting down militant groups that have been created to fight India. [***]

“Pakistan will do it at its own pace, not at gunpoint,” said a senior politician in the Pakistan Peoples Party, who declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak.

Moreover, the politician said that the efforts by Pakistan’s president, Mr. Zardari, to deal with the Mumbai attack were interpreted by the Pakistani public as an attempt to mollify the Indians rather than stand up to them. [***]

“The street is upset,” the politician said. For that reason, the government could not move too harshly against Lashkar-e-Taiba, he said.

The murky relationship between Pakistani military and intelligence services and Lashkar seemed to contribute to the confusion over what actually happened during the raid and who had been detained, as well as to the official reluctance to discuss the matter.

Whether law enforcement officers or soldiers were on the scene in Muzaffarabad was unclear on Monday. Most Pakistani news reports said a helicopter hovered near the compound.

Some reports said the compound was run by Lashkar-e-Taiba, while others said it belonged to Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the related charity organization.

On Sunday night, the senior official in the Interior Ministry, Rehman Malik, told the newspaper The Nation that he believed that the raid was being conducted by the local police, but that he was not sure.

The information department of the Pakistani Army released a statement on Monday evening saying an “intelligence-led operation against banned militant outfits and organizations” was under way. There had been arrests, it said, and the results of investigations would be available “on completion of preliminary inquiries.”

A resident near the compound told Dawn, an English-language newspaper, that she had heard an army helicopter over the area and then two or three loud explosions in the early evening.

All the national newspapers reported Monday morning that Mr. Lakhvi, the Lashkar-e-Taiba leader, was among those who were arrested during the raid. Later in the morning, a senior security official confirmed that Mr. Lakhvi had been arrested, along with about a dozen others.

But by the afternoon, after a meeting of the Defense Council of the Cabinet, a civilian body that includes the army chief of staff, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the security official said he understood that Mr. Lakhvi had not been arrested.

At one point during the day, word spread that Mr. Lakhvi had eluded arrest. On Monday night, two members of the cabinet declined to confirm whether Mr. Lakhvi was in custody.

If Mr. Lakhvi was indeed in custody, India and the United States would regard his arrest as a good first step, diplomats said.

But his arrest along with the arrests of a handful of others would fall well short of fulfilling the expectations of Washington or New Delhi, [***]they said.

Mr. Lakhvi, who is in his 50s, fought in Afghanistan as a mujahedeen against the Soviet Union, said Arif Jamal, a visiting fellow at the Center on International Cooperation at New York University and the author of a coming book, “Shadow War: The Untold Story of Jihad in Kashmir.” [***]

Mr. Lakhvi had not actually fought since 1989, Mr. Jamal said. He said Mr. Lakhvi possessed excellent organizational skills and a strong ideological commitment to the jihadist cause. “If Lashkar-e-Taiba was involved in the Mumbai attacks, Mr. Lakhvi would have an important role because of his organizational abilities,” [***]Mr. Jamal said.

Lashkar-e-Taiba, which regards itself as a wing of the charity Jamaat-ud-Dawa, dismantled most of his training camps after 9/11, Mr. Jamal said. “They keep erecting mobile camps for training,” [**]he said.

Mr. Lakhvi was active in the relief effort organized by Jamaat-ud-Dawa after the earthquake in Kashmir in 2005. That was the last time Mr. Jamal said he had seen Mr. Lakhvi.

A spokesman for Lashkar-e-Taiba, Abdullah Gaznabi, confirmed Monday that the Pakistani security forces had carried out a raid “under pressure from India and the United States,” but would say nothing specific about who or how many people had been detained. [***]

“We have already made it clear that the Lashkar has nothing to do with the recent attacks in Mumbai,” he said by phone from an undisclosed location, “and by constantly trying to drag our organization’s name into these is nothing but to malign it.”

He also warned the government against sacrificing the cause of Kashmir, which has been disputed by India and Pakistan for more than 60 years. “Being Kashmiris, it is our right to use any part of the territory of Jammu and Kashmir for our just freedom struggle,” [**]he said.

The Pakistani authorities offered on Monday to send a “high-level” delegation to India for a joint investigation, the foreign secretary, Salman Bashir, said.

Police officials in India, meanwhile, said they had identified the hometowns of all 10 known gunmen — all of them from Punjab Province in Pakistan — and said they had evidence further establishing the Pakistani origins of the men. [****]“There are mailboxes from Pakistan, there are medical kits from Pakistan,” said Rakesh Maria, the joint police commissioner in Mumbai who is in charge of the case. “The rations — the flour, the rice — that has markings from places in Pakistan.”
Reporting was contributed by Graham Bowley in New York, Eric Schmitt in Washington; Yusuf Jameel in Srinagar, Kashmir; and Robert F. Worth in Mumbai, India.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

North Korea: New Round of Nuclear Talks Under Way

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/09/world/asia/09briefs-NEWROUNDOFNU_BRF.html
December 9, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
North Korea: New Round of Nuclear Talks Under Way
By ANDREW JACOBS [DPRK] [ROK] [6-way talks] [with recently elected pres Lee Myung-bak taking harder line that his predecessors] [DPRK reacted strongly and typically overwrought] [after taking nasty vitriolic tirade from DPRK, ROK’s leadership suspects DRPK may want to talk] [true to typical form, DPRK is over dramatizing future relations with ROK] [probably aimed at multiple audiences] [followup] [******]
A new round of talks aimed at persuading North Korea to discontinue its nuclear program began in Beijing on Monday. The chief American negotiator, Christopher R.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/09/world/asia/09briefs-NEWROUNDOFNU_BRF.html
December 9, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
North Korea: New Round of Nuclear Talks Under Way
By ANDREW JACOBS [DPRK] [ROK] [6-way talks] [with recently elected pres Lee Myung-bak taking harder line that his predecessors] [DPRK reacted strongly and typically overwrought] [after taking nasty vitriolic tirade from DPRK, ROK’s leadership suspects DRPK may want to talk] [true to typical form, DPRK is over dramatizing future relations with ROK] [probably aimed at multiple audiences] [followup] [******]
A new round of talks aimed at persuading North Korea to discontinue its nuclear program began in Beijing on Monday. The chief American negotiator, Christopher R. Hill, said it was too early to characterize the first day of negotiations, which included representatives of Russia, China, Japan, and South and North Korea. The latest round of talks is aimed at finding ways to verify the state of the North Korean nuclear weapons program. [***]North Korea has resisted efforts to allow international inspectors into the country.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

December 09, 2008

India: Nuclear Deal With Russia

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/world/asia/06briefs-NUCLEARDEALW_BRF.html
December 6, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
India: Nuclear Deal With Russia
By REUTERS [Russia] [former USSR] [Russia-India relations] [during CW, India always had close relationship with India] [partly, due to India’s substantial Communisty party] [buy also for geopolitical reasons: enemies with China and Pakistan both of which the US befriended] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
President Dmitri A. Medvedev signed agreements Friday to develop new nuclear plants

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/world/asia/06briefs-NUCLEARDEALW_BRF.html
December 6, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
India: Nuclear Deal With Russia
By REUTERS [Russia] [former USSR] [Russia-India relations] [during CW, India always had close relationship with India] [partly, due to India’s substantial Communisty party] [buy also for geopolitical reasons: enemies with China and Pakistan both of which the US befriended] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
President Dmitri A. Medvedev signed agreements Friday to develop new nuclear plants in India. India had earlier signed a nuclear pact with the United States. India and Russia also agreed on a helicopter purchase by India and on cooperation in space programs, [***] officials said.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

December 07, 2008

Revamping Pakistan Aid Expected in Report

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/washington/07policy.html
December 7, 2008
Revamping Pakistan Aid Expected in Report
By DAVID E. SANGER [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [making the transitions to an AfPak strategy during a transition of epic nature] [******]
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration is preparing to present President-elect

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/washington/07policy.html
December 7, 2008
Revamping Pakistan Aid Expected in Report
By DAVID E. SANGER [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [making the transitions to an AfPak strategy during a transition of epic nature] [******]
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration is preparing to present President-elect Barack Obama with a lengthy, classified strategy review aimed at reversing the gains that militants have made in destabilizing Afghanistan and Pakistan. [***]

The review contains an array of options, including telling Pakistan’s military that billions of dollars in American aid will depend on the military’s being reconfigured to effectively fight militants. [***]That proposal amounts to a tacit acknowledgment that roughly $10 billion in military aid provided to Pakistan as “reimbursements” for its efforts to root out militant groups has largely been wasted.

The payments have been the source of increasing criticism on Capitol Hill and from independent review groups, which have concluded that Pakistan diverted much of the money to build up its forces against India. [what did they think Pakistan would do with it?] [Pakistan’s raison d’être is defeating India in the next big battle] [****]

Revamping the aid to the military was part of a three-month study of what has gone wrong in the seven-year war along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The study calls for a new and broadly regional approach to insurgencies that move freely across the mountainous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In the short term, it calls for continued covert strikes into Pakistani territory from Afghanistan, though the American military has been reluctant to repeat the kind of ground attack that led to an open exchange of fire with Pakistani border forces in September.

The report, which is expected to be presented to Mr. Obama’s top national security advisers in the next week or two, was the product of a highly unusual strategy review that was begun in mid-September, just four months before President Bush leaves office.

“We’ve gone seven long years proclaiming that Pakistan was an ally and that it was doing everything we asked in the war on terror,” said one senior official involved in drafting the report. “And the truth is that $10 billion later, they still don’t have the basic capacity for counterinsurgency operations. What we are telling Obama and his people is that has to be reversed.” [also, though they may not admit it, they are telling Obama what a tragedy their Musharraf-centric policy was and that the US needs an AfPak strategy] [******]

As a war that Mr. Bush once believed he had won came back to life in 2005 and 2006, the White House began a series of strategic reassessments, the most recent one reporting in the fall of 2006, just before the forced resignation of Donald H. Rumsfeld as secretary of defense.

But those past studies looked primarily at the dynamics in Afghanistan. The current one, headed by the White House war czar, Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, took a far broader view. The drafts prepared for the incoming Obama administration suggest that the United States has never focused sufficiently on nation-building, jobs creation, construction of schools and roads, and, most important, pushing the Pakistani government to focus on counterterrorism and counterinsurgency.

It also urges Mr. Obama to take a far more regional approach to the problem, something he has indicated in speeches he is inclined to do. [***] [shocker]

“The Pashtun tribes treat these countries as one territory, and we have to begin to do something similar,” one official familiar with the report said, declining to speak on the record because the contents of the report are confidential. [some 40-plus million Pashtuns straddle the border between the two countries] [****]

The report includes options, not “recommendations,” so that Mr. Obama would not be put in the position of endorsing or rejecting Mr. Bush’s suggested policies. It was completed just before the terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, last month, and the reaction to those events is likely to complicate some of the central options even before they are handed off to Mr. Obama.

Though Pakistani officials regularly promised Mr. Bush, his intelligence chiefs and top American military officials that they would rout Al Qaeda and other militants from their sanctuary in Pakistan’s tribal areas, mountains of intelligence suggest that the country was playing both sides, financing the Taliban even while fighting them. The group accused of the Mumbai attacks, Lashkar-e-Taiba, was essentially the creation of the Pakistani intelligence services, as a proxy to fight in Kashmir against India.

Now, with the strong possibility that India will strike back for the Mumbai attacks, many in the Pakistani military are expected to argue that they were prudent to keep their forces primarily arrayed against India, rather than hunting down Al Qaeda and other militants.

“The real danger here is that what happened in Mumbai is gong to reinforce all the instincts to focus on India,” said one official familiar with the contents of the strategy review. “It worsens their paranoia.”

As recently as 2006, Mr. Bush would speak regularly of eventual “victory” in Afghanistan, as he did in Iraq. He is leaving office declaring that the so-called military surge in Iraq was successful, and with a status of forces agreement that calls for the withdrawal of the bulk of the American force over the next two years. But he has said little about Afghanistan, where the fighting has worsened, and the strategy review was premised on intelligence assessments that said that the United States was not losing the war, but was in danger of losing ground.

Several members of the strategy review, notably David J. Kilcullen, an Australian counterinsurgency expert, have publicly offered a significantly grimmer view. Mr. Kilcullen told senior officials before he left a State Department post that the United States could begin to lose the war soon if strategy was not reversed. He has advocated working to secure major population centers rather than using NATO troops to chase the Taliban around the Afghan countryside.

A senior aide to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Eliot Cohen, also joined the panel, along with a top marine general and a number of officials from the intelligence agencies.

Asked about the study, a White House spokesman, Gordon D. Johndroe, said only: “We are concluding our review. We intend to pass it to the new team, since most policy adaptations would take place on their watch. This is another part of our efforts to ensure a smooth transition.”

The tone of the new report, officials familiar with it say, is in line with arguments made over the past year by Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, who has agreed to remain in his post under Mr. Obama. He has made clear in an article he wrote for a forthcoming issue of the journal Foreign Affairs that the kind of military victory Mr. Bush once spoke of, the military crippling of militants in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, is not the way to think about the future of the conflict. [one of the reasons he’s so important for continuity] [**]

“Over the long term, the United States cannot kill or capture its way to victory,” Mr. Gates wrote. “Where possible, what the military calls kinetic operations should be subordinated to measures aimed at promoting better governance, economic programs that spur development, and efforts to address the grievances among the discontented, from whom the terrorists recruit. It will take the patient accumulation of quiet successes over a long time to discredit and defeat extremist movements and their ideologies.”

Yet the problem in Pakistan has been getting the military to accept help from the United States, which it suspects is tilting toward India and may harbor plans to seize Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal if the government in Islamabad collapses. In Afghanistan, the problem is incompetence, corruption, and the inability of President Hamid Karzai to extend his control of the country significantly beyond the capital, Kabul.

A senior military official said “the message of the report is that you can’t win in Afghanistan without first fixing Pakistan.”

“But even if you fix Pakistan,” the official said, “that won’t be enough.”

That was also the conclusion of a major study of what has gone wrong in Afghanistan, published in January by a group led by Gen. James L. Jones, a former NATO commander. General Jones, who retired from the Marine Corps, was appointed last week to become the next national security adviser.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Obama Pledges Public Works on a Vast Scale

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/us/politics/07radio.html
December 7, 2008
Obama Pledges Public Works on a Vast Scale
By PETER BAKER and JOHN M. BRODER [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [a critical mass may have been reached wherein the new administration might actually create significant public-works program for infrastructure and greening US] [******]
WASHINGTON — President-elect Barack Obama promised Saturday to create the

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/us/politics/07radio.html
December 7, 2008
Obama Pledges Public Works on a Vast Scale
By PETER BAKER and JOHN M. BRODER [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [a critical mass may have been reached wherein the new administration might actually create significant public-works program for infrastructure and greening US] [******]
WASHINGTON — President-elect Barack Obama promised Saturday to create the largest public works construction program since the inception of the interstate highway system a half century ago as he seeks to put together a plan to resuscitate the reeling economy.

With jobs evaporating and the recession deepening, Mr. Obama began highlighting elements of the economic recovery program he is trying to fashion with Congressional leaders in hopes of being able to enact it shortly after being sworn in on Jan. 20. His address on Saturday followed the report on Friday indicating that the country lost 533,000 jobs in November alone, bringing the total number of jobs lost over the past year to nearly 2 million.

Mr. Obama’s remarks showcased his ambition to expand the definition of traditional work programs for the middle class, like infrastructure projects to repair roads and bridges, to include new-era jobs in technology and so-called green jobs that reduce energy use and global warming emissions. “We need action — and action now,” Mr. Obama said in an address broadcast Saturday morning on radio and YouTube.

Mr. Obama’s plan, if enacted, would be in part a government-directed industrial policy, with lawmakers and administration officials picking winners and losers among private projects and raining large amounts of taxpayer money on them.

It would cover a range of programs to expand broadband Internet access, to make government buildings more energy efficient, to improve information technology at hospitals and doctors’ offices, and to upgrade computers in schools.

“It is unacceptable that the United States ranks 15th in the world in broadband adoption,” Mr. Obama said. “Here, in the country that invented the Internet, every child should have the chance to get online.”

President Bush and many conservative economists have opposed such large-scale government intervention in the economy because it supports enterprises that might not survive in a free market. That is the crux of the argument against a government bailout of the auto industry. [but there’s always been opt-out clauses for “strategic” and “infant” industies] [just privatize them as quickly as possible] [****]

But Mr. Obama proposes to charge ahead, asserting that extensive government support is needed to preserve and create jobs while building the latticework of a 21st century economy.

Although Mr. Obama put no price tag on his plan, he said he would invest record amounts of money in the vast infrastructure program, which also includes work on schools, sewer systems, mass transit, electrical grids, dams and other public utilities. The green jobs would include various categories, including jobs dedicated to creating alternative fuels, windmills and solar panels; building energy efficient appliances, or installing fuel-efficient heating or cooling systems.

Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House energy adviser, said that Mr. Obama had now settled whatever debate there was in his transition team and among Democrats in Congress over how to lift the economy in the short term and over a longer horizon.

“It’s now clear that Obama intends to stimulate the economy through large direct government spending on infrastructure projects as well as through business and individual tax cuts,” said Mr. Bledsoe, now an official of the National Commission on Energy Policy, a nonpartisan research group in Washington. “He is advocating things like guaranteeing every American a college education, wiring the entire country for Internet, putting in a smart electric grid. If he can do it, these will be major systemic advantages for the United States in the competitive global economy.”

Although Mr. Obama is weeks away from taking office, Friday’s grim jobs report heightened pressure on him to assert leadership before his inauguration.

Mr. Obama and his team are working with Congressional leaders to devise a spending package that some lawmakers suggest could total $400 billion to $700 billion. Some analysts forecast even higher costs. Mr. Obama has said he would direct his team to come up with a plan to save or create 2.5 million jobs in the first two years of his administration.

A big part of that will be public works spending. “We will create millions of jobs by making the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s,” Mr. Obama said. He did not estimate how much he would devote to that purpose, but when he met with the nation’s governors last week, they said the states had $136 billion worth of road, bridge, water and other projects ready to go as soon as money became available. They estimated that each billion dollars spent would create up to 40,000 jobs.

Local and regional transit systems have $8 billion more in projects that could begin immediately, like buying hybrid buses and expanding light rail systems, creating thousands of jobs.

“He hasn’t given us any commitment, but we are fairly certain it’s going to be large,” Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania, a Democrat and chairman of the National Governors Association, said in an interview Saturday. “I think he understands if you’re trying to reverse the economy and turn it around, this is not the time to do it on the cheap. This is not the time to do it in small doses.”

Mr. Bush and other Republicans have resisted such an approach in part out of concern for the already soaring federal budget deficit, which could easily hit $1 trillion this year. Borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars today to try to fix the economy, they argue, will leave a huge bill for the next generation.

Conservative economists have also long derided public works spending as a poor response to tough economic times, saying it has not been a reliable catalyst for short-term growth and instead is more about politicians gaining points with constituents.

Alan D. Viard, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, told the House Ways and Means Committee recently that public works spending should not be authorized out of the “illusory hope of job gains or economic stabilization.”

“If more money is spent on infrastructure, more workers will be employed in that sector,” Mr. Viard added. “In the long run, however, an increase in infrastructure spending requires a reduction in public or private spending for other goods and services. As a result, fewer workers are employed in other sectors of the economy.”

Mr. Obama implicitly tried to counter such arguments by invoking the federal interstate highway program, seen as one of the most successful public works efforts in American history.

President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed the Federal Aid Highway Act in 1956, ultimately resulting in the construction of 42,795 miles of roads. In 1991, the government concluded that the total cost came to $128.9 billion, with the federal government paying $114.3 billion and the states picking up the rest.[****]

Mr. Obama also responded to criticism of waste and inefficiency in such programs by promising new spending rules, like a requirement that states act quickly to invest in roads and bridges or sacrifice federal money.

“We’ll measure progress by the reforms we make,” Mr. Obama said, “and the results we achieve by the jobs we create, by the energy we save, by whether America is more competitive in the world.”

The green jobs portion of the economic package could run as high as $100 billion over two years, according to an aide familiar with the discussions.

A blueprint for such spending can be found in a study financed by the Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts and the Center for American Progress, a Washington research organization founded by John D. Podesta, who is a co-chairman of Mr. Obama’s transition team.

Daniel J. Weiss, an environmental analyst at Mr. Podesta’s center, said Washington should invest more money in existing programs that create work while cutting energy use, like home weatherization programs that have been chronically underfinanced.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

General Critical of Iraq War Is V.A. Chief Pick

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/us/politics/07shinseki.html
December 7, 2008
General Critical of Iraq War Is V.A. Chief Pick
By JACKIE CALMES [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [perhaps Gen Eric Shinseki will have the last laugh?] [cross in individual] [******]
CHICAGO — President-elect Barack Obama has chosen retired Gen. Eric K. Shinseki to be secretary of the Veterans Affairs Department, elevating the former Army chief of staff, who was vilified by the Bush administration on the eve of the Iraq war for his warning that far more troops would be needed than the Pentagon had committed. [worse than vilified] [he was made the poster child for would-be critics of the Rummy-Cheney machine] [****\

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/us/politics/07shinseki.html
December 7, 2008
General Critical of Iraq War Is V.A. Chief Pick
By JACKIE CALMES [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [perhaps Gen Eric Shinseki will have the last laugh?] [cross in individual] [******]
CHICAGO — President-elect Barack Obama has chosen retired Gen. Eric K. Shinseki to be secretary of the Veterans Affairs Department, elevating the former Army chief of staff, who was vilified by the Bush administration on the eve of the Iraq war for his warning that far more troops would be needed than the Pentagon had committed. [worse than vilified] [he was made the poster child for would-be critics of the Rummy-Cheney machine] [****\

In his choice of General Shinseki, which Mr. Obama will announce here on Sunday, the president-elect would bring to his cabinet someone who symbolizes the break Mr. Obama seeks with the Bush era on national security. The selection was confirmed by two Democratic officials. [***]

General Shinseki, testifying before Congress in February 2003, a month before the United States invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime, said “several hundred thousand soldiers” would be needed to stabilize Iraq after an invasion. In words that came to be vindicated by events, the general anticipated “ethnic tensions that could lead to other problems,” adding, “and so it takes a significant ground force presence to maintain a safe and secure environment.”

The testimony angered Donald H. Rumsfeld, the defense secretary at the time, whose war plans called for far fewer troops. Mr. Rumsfeld’s deputy, Paul D. Wolfowitz, publicly rebuked General Shinseki’s comments as “wildly off the mark,” in part because Iraqis would welcome the Americans as liberators.

With the subsequent years in which Americans battled ethnic insurgents, and after President Bush agreed in January 2007 to a “surge” strategy of more troops, General Shinseki was effectively vindicated, and military officials, as well as activists and politicians, publicly saluted him. By then, however, General Shinseki had been marginalized on the Joint Chiefs of Staff and quietly retired from the Army. [***]

When asked about General Shinseki’s early troop estimates in an interview to be broadcast Sunday on “Meet the Press” on NBC, Mr. Obama said, “He was right.”

At the same time, General Shinseki drew criticism for not having pressed more aggressively for more troops before the war. In an interview in Newsweek in early 2007, he said of the critiques, with characteristic brevity: “Probably that’s fair. Not my style.” In the past, he would say to his associates, “I do not want to criticize while my soldiers are still bleeding and dying in Iraq.”

When other retired officers publicly called on Mr. Rumsfeld to resign, General Shinseki did not.

The controversy made General Shinseki popular with soldiers in Iraq and veterans of the conflict who resented what they saw as inadequate troop strength. In taking over the Veterans Affairs Department, he would inherit an agency struggling with increasing numbers of veterans with physical and mental wounds from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the many aging veterans of past conflicts.

General Shinseki, 66, who was the highest-ranking Asian-American in the military, also commanded the NATO peacekeeping force in Bosnia. Like Mr. Obama, the general is a native of Hawaii. He is a veteran of the Vietnam War, where he suffered serious wounds and lost much of a foot. [individual-role] [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Facilitator on Board

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/05/AR2008120503193.html
Facilitator on Board
By David Ignatius
Sunday, December 7, 2008; B07 [oped] [columnist] [NSC advisor Jones] [cross in individual-rple] [***]
For a preview of how Gen. Jim Jones will operate as national security adviser in the incoming Obama administration, it's useful to look at his performance as special envoy on Middle East security for the outgoing Bush administration. His effort there has helped yield one of the few recent success stories in the grinding Israeli-Palestinian stalemate. [***]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/05/AR2008120503193.html
Facilitator on Board
By David Ignatius
Sunday, December 7, 2008; B07 [oped] [columnist] [NSC advisor Jones] [cross in individual-rple] [***]
For a preview of how Gen. Jim Jones will operate as national security adviser in the incoming Obama administration, it's useful to look at his performance as special envoy on Middle East security for the outgoing Bush administration. His effort there has helped yield one of the few recent success stories in the grinding Israeli-Palestinian stalemate. [***]

Jones took the post in November 2007, just after the Annapolis peace conference, at the request of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. His mission was to help crack the toughest nut of all in this dispute -- Israel's lack of trust that the Palestinians are serious about stopping terrorism. [***]Until that confidence about security exists, all the talk about creating a Palestinian state is just so much hot air.

Jones had a lot of help, including from Rice. He was a part-time facilitator, rather than a hands-on manager. But maybe that's the point.

The retired Marine general's approach, in the simplest terms, has been to build consensus by working on practical problems from the bottom up. The Israelis and Palestinians were dug into their positions on the big issues, and Rice's larger peacemaking effort gradually stalled. But there was some give on the day-to-day security issues that were part of Jones's mission. [***]

And to an extent that has surprised the Israelis, the Palestinian security push has been successful. "They're working more effectively than in the past," Israeli Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad told the Jerusalem Post last month. "There's certainly an improvement."

The U.S. plan was to train Palestinian paramilitary forces and deploy them -- despite Israeli anxieties -- in West Bank cities to keep order. Leading this effort was Army Lt. Gen. Keith Dayton, the U.S. security coordinator. Starting last year, he organized training for Palestinian security forces in Jordan. About 1,100 Palestinians have now graduated from that U.S.-directed training program, with another 1,000 on the way. [***]

The first challenge was to persuade the Israelis to allow the Palestinian security forces to operate more aggressively. In the past, Israeli officials have sometimes given lip service to this idea but refused to give the Palestinians the weapons or operating freedom they needed. This time was different. When the Palestinians proposed in May to deploy their first newly trained battalion to the unruly city of Jenin, the Israelis agreed. [**]

The Palestinians performed better than the Israelis expected. They didn't just crack down on Jenin's criminal gangs but also staged an armed raid on an Islamic Jihad cell in nearby Qabatiya. Jones and his team built on the new security by funding new schools, clinics and other development projects there in what was called the "Jenin Initiative." [***]Former British prime minister Tony Blair, who has been working closely with Jones, said last week that on a recent visit to the northern West Bank city, he was astonished by the calm.

Next, the Palestinians wanted to deploy their forces to the southern city of Hebron -- a double challenge because it is home for militant Israeli settlers as well as a stronghold of the radical Palestinian group Hamas. The Israelis at first balked, but by late October they had agreed to allow the Palestinians to share responsibility for security in the city. Since then, Palestinians have arrested 250 suspected Hamas members, as well as about 150 smugglers and thugs. They also uncovered a Hamas ammunition dump in a tunnel -- and informed the Israelis, who promptly destroyed it. [****]

Jones explained in an interview why the security initiative is working. The Israeli approach is, "If they will do more, we will do less," he says. "That has built upon itself. There is more trust and confidence, with the Palestinians moving up the ladder to higher-end missions."

I asked Jones what his role as Middle East envoy showed about how he would operate as national security adviser. "I spend a lot of time talking to people, getting others to buy in," he explained. He works to "build consensus by reaching out and making sure everyone has a chance to say what they want." He plans to keep pushing on the Israeli-Palestinian front when he's in the White House. "It's very important not to lose momentum," [****]he said.

Jones isn't a perfect national security adviser. The ideal person would have some of the strategic cunning of a Henry Kissinger or a Zbigniew Brzezinski, plus a dash of Brent Scowcroft's self-effacing manner. But the big, confident Marine knows how to get people working together. And if he can help the Israelis and Palestinians get along, maybe he can do the same for the all-stars on the Obama foreign policy team.
The writer is co-host of PostGlobal, an online discussion of international issues. His e-mail address is davidignatius@washpost.com.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

The Deluder in Chief

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/opinion/07sun2.html
December 7, 2008
Editorial
The Deluder in Chief
[editorial] [the outgoing 43rd president of the USA] [getting more delusional by the day] [cognitive dissonance] [he recently stated that he never said connections existed between Saddam and al Qaeda] [not only did he say it multipe times, the administration constantly implied it] [mushrooms clouds were coming from Saddam or any state actor with a return address] [nukes and other nefarious WMD were to be spirited to al Qaeda from Saddam and othe0rs] [****]
We long ago gave up hope that President Bush would acknowledge his many mistakes, or show he had learned anything from them. Even then we were unprepared for the epic

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/opinion/07sun2.html
December 7, 2008
Editorial
The Deluder in Chief
[editorial] [the outgoing 43rd president of the USA] [getting more delusional by the day] [cognitive dissonance] [he recently stated that he never said connections existed between Saddam and al Qaeda] [not only did he say it multipe times, the administration constantly implied it] [mushrooms clouds were coming from Saddam or any state actor with a return address] [nukes and other nefarious WMD were to be spirited to al Qaeda from Saddam and othe0rs] [****]
We long ago gave up hope that President Bush would acknowledge his many mistakes, or show he had learned anything from them. Even then we were unprepared for the epic denial that Mr. Bush displayed in his interview with ABC News’s Charles Gibson the other day, which he presumably considered an important valedictory chat with the American public as well.
[***]
It was bad enough when Mr. Bush piously declared that he hopes Americans believe he is a guy who “didn’t sell his soul for politics.” (We suppose we should not bother remembering how his team drove Senator John McCain out of the 2000 primaries with racist attacks or falsified Senator John Kerry’s war record in 2004.)

It was skin crawling to hear him tell Mr. Gibson that the thing he will really miss when he leaves office is no longer going to see the families of slain soldiers, because they make him feel better about the war. But Mr. Bush’s comments about his decision to invade Iraq were a “mistakes were made” rewriting of history and a refusal to accept responsibility to rival that of Richard Nixon. [incredibly perverse] [but the entire interview had a perverse quality and I got the impression Ms. Bush was ready to scream] [***]

At one point, Mr. Bush was asked if he wanted any do-overs. “The biggest regret of the presidency has to have been the intelligence failure in Iraq,” he said. “A lot of people put their reputations on the line and said the weapons of mass destruction” were cause for war. [lie Colin Powell whom Bush threw under the Buss] [but worse, the intelligence was not simply collected and disseminated] [Feith’ shop of horrors took the stuff and reworked it until it provide evidence of their preconceived biases] [in terms of precedents, a president of normal intelligence-psychology might regret such] [****]

After everything the American public and the world have learned about how Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney manipulated Congress, public opinion and anyone else they could bully or lie to, Mr. Bush is still acting as though he decided to invade Iraq after suddenly being handed life and death information on Saddam Hussein’s arsenal. [and that’s putting it charitably] [a person not defined by excessive hubris might even think that playing fast and loose with the Constitution was regrettable] [****]

The truth is that Mr. Bush, Mr. Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld had been chafing to attack Iraq before Sept. 11, 2001. They justified that unnecessary war using intelligence reports that they knew or should have known to be faulty. And it was pressure from the White House and a highly politicized Pentagon that compelled people like Secretary of State Colin Powell and George Tenet, the Central Intelligence director, to ignore the counter-evidence and squander their good names on hyped claims of weapons of mass destruction. [***]

Despite it all, Mr. Bush said he will “leave the presidency with my head held high.” And, presumably, with his eyes closed to all the disasters he is dumping on the American people and his successor.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

New Tensions in Jerusalem’s Arab Neighborhoods

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/world/middleeast/07jerusalem.html
December 7, 2008
New Tensions in Jerusalem’s Arab Neighborhoods
By ISABEL KERSHNER [Israeli-Palestinian conflict] [apparently some settlers not so keen to stay in Palestinian state] [others, of course, militantly intend to stay even with Palestinians all round them] [never-ending cycle of violence] [followup] [*****]
JERUSALEM — A series of recent Israeli actions in the mainly Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem have raised tensions there, with Palestinian and Israeli critics

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/world/middleeast/07jerusalem.html
December 7, 2008
New Tensions in Jerusalem’s Arab Neighborhoods
By ISABEL KERSHNER [Israeli-Palestinian conflict] [apparently some settlers not so keen to stay in Palestinian state] [others, of course, militantly intend to stay even with Palestinians all round them] [never-ending cycle of violence] [followup] [*****]
JERUSALEM — A series of recent Israeli actions in the mainly Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem have raised tensions there, with Palestinian and Israeli critics contending that they are part of a wider plan to “Judaize” historically charged areas around the Old City. [there are 3 or 4 “quarters”] [the Arab quarter is east Jerusalem] [the Jewish quarter is West and shares the wall and temple mount with east] [these matters have long been agreed to more or less] [why screw with it now?] [it may be due to Bebe’s likely election next year] [take what you can now and count on Netanyahu to hold it via Likud governance?] [**]

The actions, ostensibly unconnected, include the demolition of two Arab homes in Silwan, a neighborhood adjacent to the Old City above the ruins of an ancient Jewish site; the start of a controversial infrastructure project there; and the eviction of a Palestinian family from its home in Sheik Jarrah, another neighborhood coveted by Jewish nationalists near the Old City. [***]

None of these actions in themselves are that unusual here. But the spate of high-profile, highly symbolic moves in the past few weeks has reignited concerns that an increasing Jewish presence in Arab areas will further complicate the chances of reaching an Israeli-Palestinian political agreement based on a two-state solution, which calls for a division of powers in a shared capital. [precisely the point] [***]

And they come as a new Jerusalem mayor who has vocally supported expansion of Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem takes office.

“East Jerusalem must be the capital of the Palestinian state,” said Hatem Abdel Qader, an adviser on Jerusalem affairs to the Palestinian Authority prime minister, Salam Fayyad. “Israel is trying to create facts on the ground and determine the results before we reach any solution.”

Some believe that the Israeli authorities and Jewish nationalists, who are increasingly gaining footholds in the Arab neighborhoods, are intentionally exploiting the period of political transition in the United States, as well as the political vacuum in Israel before the February elections. [vacuum in US; vacuum in Israel; new mayor who’s on record as saying Jews get more of Jerusalem] [***]

“Several elements combine to make the situation in Jerusalem much more dangerous,” said Hagit Ofran of Peace Now, a left-wing Israeli group that opposes Jewish settlements in areas that are expected to be part a Palestinian state. The conditions are ideal, she said, “for settlers to seek to force their agenda without fear of challenge or repercussions.”

A spokesman for Jerusalem City Hall, Gidi Schmerling, rejected the accusations, saying that municipal enforcement is carried out equally and according to the law in the eastern part of the city and the predominantly Jewish western part. He added that the demolition of the houses, which were built on public land, was carried out after the residents lost their appeals in the district and supreme courts.

The home demolitions in this part of Silwan, where a volatile mix of about 7,000 Palestinians and a few hundred Jewish ultranationalists live in cramped quarters on steep hillsides above the ruins of the ancient City of David, set off a riot. They were the first of 88 homes to be razed in a compound built without proper permits where Israeli planners want to expand a national archaeological park.

The infrastructure improvements, in ordinary circumstances, would be welcome news in a poor and neglected neighborhood like Silwan. But in the charged atmosphere of East Jerusalem, which Israel seized from the Jordanians in the 1967 war and later annexed, some perceive even municipal road works and new traffic arrangements as part of a larger plan. [***]

In late November, Jerusalem city authorities and East Jerusalem Development, an Israeli government company, began a project to lay new water and sewage pipes and to repave one of Silwan’s main roads. The road, known to Arabs as Wadi Hilweh and renamed by Israeli authorities as City of David Steps, runs roughly from the main entrance of the City of David site down toward the compound known as the Bustan, where the demolitions took place.

Many local residents oppose the traffic changes, which have already been instituted, as well as plans to turn empty spaces along the road into parking lots, saying they will benefit the tourists to the detriment of the local residents.

“We lack schools, playgrounds, everything,” said Jawwad Siyam, an activist in Silwan. “The Israeli government and Jerusalem city are now like tools in the settlers’ hands.”[I fear this is true] [***]

With the help of the Association for Civil Rights in Israel, a human rights group, Mr. Siyam and several other residents have gone to court to try to halt the work. They told the court that they feared that the road works would turn up archaeological finds, requiring a salvage dig “that could paralyze life in the area for years.”

Eli Shmuelyan, the deputy director of East Jerusalem Development, dismissed the complaints. “We’re creating parking lots for the residents as well,” he said, “so the streets will be clear and the buses can move.”

Perhaps the opponents of the project “enjoy traffic jams,” he said.

But what the opponents see is a pattern, a direct line extending from the City of David and the Bustan — where the demolition orders were issued in 2005 but were delayed, largely because of international pressure — to the eviction of the Palestinian family in Sheik Jarrah.

The family, the Kurds, who had lived in its home there for more than 50 years, was evicted in early November. A Jewish association claims ownership of the land and has plans to build a large Jewish housing complex there.

For years, the Kurds had refused to pay rent as protected tenants in their own home, as they had been ordered to do, pending the outcome of a protracted legal battle against the Jewish claimants. Religious Jewish nationalists had already moved into an extension of the Kurds’ small, single-story stone house. [yikes] [the entire settlement movements have created this sort of monster that no party controls but that many parties attempt to use for political purposes] [***\

Just days after the Kurds’ eviction, the family patriarch, Muhammad al-Kurd, 61, who suffered from diabetes and heart problems, died. His family moved into protest tents on an empty lot near the house where they received mourners, but the tents, too, have been dismantled by the Israeli authorities several times.

The Kurds’ home is adjacent to a site held by Jews to be the ancient tomb of Shimon Hatzadik, or Simeon the Just, a Jewish high priest from the days of the Second Temple. A Jewish organization has reclaimed the land based on property deeds whose authenticity is disputed, and which date back to the 1870s, long before the Jewish state was established in 1948. [****]

Another 27 Palestinian families are threatened with eviction on the same grounds.

“People in the neighborhood are very upset and fear they will be next,” said a resident, Mahmoud Abu Turk, who was visiting the mourning tent.

The Palestinian Authority, based in the West Bank, is responding by trying to assert its presence.

Mr. Abdel Qader and Rafiq Husseini, the director of the president’s office, took a group of foreign consular officials on a tour of Silwan, Sheik Jarrah and other problematic areas of East Jerusalem last week.

The tour was “symbolic,” Mr. Abdel Qader said, a “message to Israel” that the Palestinian leadership can also operate in Jerusalem. [***]

Others note that the Jewish reclamation of pre-state property in East Jerusalem could open a political Pandora’s box of counterclaims. In a symbolic protest on Thursday, Muhammad al-Kurd’s widow, Fawziyah, 56, accompanied by Palestinian and Israeli activists and two Arab Israeli members of Parliament, briefly set up a tent in the affluent West Jerusalem neighborhood of Talbieh.

She said that her parents abandoned a home there when they became refugees in 1948.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

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http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/world/asia/07troops.html
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December 7, 2008
U.S. Plans a Shift to Focus Troops on Kabul Region
By KIRK SEMPLE [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [what is Patraeus waiting for before implementing counterinsurgency program?] [the winter respite is nearly on them] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — Most of the additional American troops arriving in Afghanistan early next year will be deployed near the capital, Kabul, American military commanders

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/world/asia/07troops.html
Printer Friendly Format Sponsored By
December 7, 2008
U.S. Plans a Shift to Focus Troops on Kabul Region
By KIRK SEMPLE [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [Afghanistan going from bad to worse] [what is Patraeus waiting for before implementing counterinsurgency program?] [the winter respite is nearly on them] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — Most of the additional American troops arriving in Afghanistan early next year will be deployed near the capital, Kabul, American military commanders here say, [***]in a measure of how precarious the war effort has become.

It will be the first time that American or coalition forces have been deployed in large numbers on the southern flank of the city, a decision that reflects the rising concerns among military officers, diplomats and government officials about the increasing vulnerability of the capital and the surrounding area. [***]

It also underscores the difficult choices confronting American military commanders as they try to apportion a limited number of forces not only within Afghanistan, but also between Afghanistan and Iraq.

For the incoming Obama administration, a first priority will be to weigh which is the greater risk: drawing down American forces too quickly in Iraq, potentially jeopardizing the gains there; or not building up troops quickly enough in Afghanistan, where the war effort hangs in the balance as security worsens. [that’s why it’s crucial he has rapport with Gates, Mullen and other JCS, his new NSC advisor general (retired) James Jones, and a few key combatant commanders] [******]

The new Army brigade, the Third Brigade of the 10th Mountain Division from Fort Drum, N.Y., is scheduled to arrive in Afghanistan in January and will consist of 3,500 to 4,000 soldiers. The “vast majority” of them will be sent to Logar and Wardak Provinces, adjacent to Kabul, said Lt. Col. Rumi Nielson-Green, a spokeswoman for the American units in eastern Afghanistan. A battalion of at least several hundred soldiers from that brigade will go to the border region in the east, where American forces have been locked in some of the fiercest fighting this year.

In all, the Pentagon is planning to add more than 20,000 troops to Afghanistan in response to a request from Gen. David D. McKiernan, the top commander in Afghanistan. [***]Those troops are expected to be sent to violent areas in the south. But they are expected to be deployed over 12 to 18 months. Nearly all would be diverted from Iraq, officials say.

The plan for the incoming brigade, then, means that for the time being fewer reinforcements — or none at all — will be immediately available for the parts of Afghanistan where the insurgency is most intense.

It also means that most of the newly arriving troops will not be deployed with the main goal of curbing the cross-border flow of insurgents from their rear bases in Pakistan, something American commanders would like and President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan has recommended. [***]

In recent months, amid a series of American military operations that caused civilian casualties, Mr. Karzai has repeatedly said that the fight against the insurgents should not be waged “in the villages” of Afghanistan but rather in the rugged borderlands to the east and south.

In an interview, the president’s spokesman, Humayun Hamidzada, said there was no conflict between the January deployment and Mr. Karzai’s declarations. While Mr. Karzai had requested a focus on border areas, the spokesman said, additional reinforcements were also needed throughout the country, including in Wardak and Logar. [It appears that Karzai has become part of the problem] [he’s more adept at speaking in English and Pashto to respective constituencies than governing] [***]

There are about 62,000 international troops currently in Afghanistan, including about 32,000 Americans, a military spokesman said, but they are spread thinly throughout the country, which is nearly the size of Texas.

American commanders say they desperately need more. Military officials say that if General McKiernan’s requests are met, deployments in the next year and a half or so will include four combat brigades, an aviation brigade equipped with attack and troop-carrying helicopters, reconnaissance units, support troops and trainers for the Afghan Army and the police, raising American force levels to about 58,000.

The United States and NATO forces are hoping to expand the Afghan Army to 134,000 from nearly 70,000 over the next four or five years.

Col. Gregory S. Julian, a top military spokesman, said that for security reasons he could not say where exactly those troops would go, but NATO’s southern command in Afghanistan includes Kandahar, Helmand, Oruzgan and Zabul Provinces.

Of immediate concern, American and NATO commanders say, is the need to safeguard the capital, to hit new Taliban strongholds in Wardak and Logar, and to provide enough security in those provinces for development programs, which are essential to maintaining the support of Afghan villagers. [what is needed, prior to development, is security] [protecting the people from Taliban and other jihahi groups] [***]

Unlike in previous winters, when there was a lull in fighting as many Taliban fighters returned to Pakistan, American commanders expect more Taliban fighters to remain in Afghanistan and continue the fight. If so, the change would seem to reflect an effort by the emboldened insurgency to maintain its momentum and hold newly gained territory. [if this happens it will be the first time in 8 years] [****]

Wardak and Logar had been relatively secure until late last year. But by most accounts, Taliban activity has soared in the two provinces in the past year, as the insurgents have stepped up attacks against Afghan and foreign forces, sometimes even controlling parts of major roads connecting Kabul to the east and south.

The number of attacks in Wardak by the Taliban and other insurgent groups has increased about 58 percent since last year, and in Logar about 41 percent, according to statistics collated by Sami Kovanen, a security analyst in Kabul.

Insurgents now have significant influence, if not control, in much of the two provinces, said Mr. Kovanen, who draws his information from a wide range of government, nongovernment and private sources.

The American military command said it had incomplete statistics for the level of violence in those provinces. “Frankly, in Wardak and Logar, we don’t know what we don’t know,” Colonel Nielson-Green said in an e-mail message. “There are few of our forces present in those areas, hence the reason for the incoming brigade there.”

“I suspect that violence will increase as we place this unit but will go down over time,” she added, “because we assess that there are considerable enemy support areas in both provinces and we will be going after them.”

In June, three American soldiers and their Afghan interpreter were killed in an ambush when their vehicles were hit by mines and rocket-propelled grenades as they drove through Wardak Province.

In August, three Western women and an Afghan driver, all working for the International Rescue Committee, a relief group based in New York, were killed in Logar. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack.

The next month, the governor of Logar Province and three of his guards were killed in the explosion of a mine buried in a road.

American and NATO military commanders eventually hope to turn over the country’s security to Afghan forces, but the Afghan police and military are nowhere near ready to assume that responsibility, officials say.

The Afghan government has already begun to work with local and provincial elected officials to extend the influence of the central government in the region, improve public services and gain the support of residents. But the government’s efforts have been continually hampered by criminal gangs and insurgent groups.

Sediqa Mubariz, a member of Parliament from Wardak, said in an interview that she would welcome any additional American troops in her province.

Ms. Mubariz said security had been so poor that since last year she had not been able to travel from Kabul to her home district in Wardak, only 50 miles away.
Carlotta Gall contributed reporting from Kabul, and Kirk Kraeutler from New York.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Mumbai Attacks Politicize Long-Isolated Elite

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/world/asia/07india.html
December 7, 2008
Mumbai Attacks Politicize Long-Isolated Elite
By SOMINI SENGUPTA [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [****]
MUMBAI, India — Last Wednesday, an extraordinary public interest lawsuit was filed in this city’s highest court. It charged that the government had lagged in its constitutional

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/world/asia/07india.html
December 7, 2008
Mumbai Attacks Politicize Long-Isolated Elite
By SOMINI SENGUPTA [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [****]
MUMBAI, India — Last Wednesday, an extraordinary public interest lawsuit was filed in this city’s highest court. It charged that the government had lagged in its constitutional duty to protect its citizens’ right to life, and it pressed the state to modernize and upgrade its security forces.

The lawsuit was striking mainly for the people behind it: investment bankers, corporate lawyers and representatives of some of India’s largest companies, which have their headquarters here in the country’s financial capital, also known as Bombay. [***]The Bombay Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the city’s largest business association, joined as a petitioner. It was the first time it had lent its name to litigation in the public interest.

The three-day siege of Mumbai, which ended a week ago, was a watershed for India’s prosperous classes. It prompted many of those who live in their own private Indias, largely insulated from the country’s dysfunction, to demand a vital public service: safety. [***]

Since the attacks, which killed 163 people, plus nine gunmen, there has been an outpouring of anger from unlikely quarters. On Wednesday, tens of thousands of urban, English-speaking, tank-top-wearing citizens stormed the Gateway of India, a famed waterfront monument, venting anger at their elected leaders. There were similar protests in the capital, New Delhi, and the southern technology hubs, Bangalore and Hyderabad. All were organized spontaneously, with word spread through text messages and Facebook pages. [****]

On Saturday, young people affiliated with a new political party, called Loksatta, or people’s power, gathered at the Gateway, calling for a variety of reforms, including banning criminals from running for political office. (Virtually every political party has convicts and suspects among its elected officials.)

Social networking sites were ablaze with memorials and citizens’ action groups, including one that advocated refraining from voting altogether as an act of civil disobedience. Never mind that in India, voter turnout among the rich is far lower than among the poor.

Another group advocated not paying taxes, as though that would improve the quality of public services. An e-mail campaign began Saturday called “I Am Clean,” urging citizens not to bribe police officers or drive through red lights.

And there were countless condemnations of how democracy had failed in this, the world’s largest democracy. Those condemnations led Vir Sanghvi, a columnist writing in the financial newspaper Mint, to remind his readers of 1975, when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi imposed emergency rule. Mr. Sanghvi wrote, “I am beginning to hear the same kind of middle-class murmurs and whines about the ineffectual nature of democracy and the need for authoritarian government.” [trust me, you’ll come to regret it] [***]

Perhaps the most striking development was the lawsuit because it represented a rare example of corporate India’s confronting the government outright rather than making back-room deals.

“It says in a nutshell, ‘Enough is enough,’ ” said Cyrus Guzder, who owns a logistics company. “More precisely, it tells us that citizens of all levels in the country believe their government has let them down and believe that it now needs to be held accountable.”

In India’s city of gold, the distinction between public and private can be bewildering. For members of the working class, who often cannot afford housing, public sidewalks become living rooms. In the morning, commuters from gated communities in the suburbs pass children brushing their teeth at the edge of the street. Women are forced to relieve themselves on the railway tracks, usually in the dark, for the sake of modesty. The poor sometimes sleep on highway medians, and it is not unheard of for drunken drivers to mow them down. [***]

Mumbai has been roiled by government neglect for years. Its commuter trains are so overcrowded that 4,000 riders die every year on average, some pushed from trains in the fierce competition to get on and off. Monsoons in 2005 killed more than 400 people in Mumbai in one day alone; [***]so clogged were the city’s ancient drains, so crowded its river plains with unauthorized construction that water had nowhere to go.

Rahul Bose, an actor, suggested setting aside such problems for the moment. In a plea published last week in The Hindustan Times, he laid out the desperation of this glistening, corroding place. “We overlook for now your neglect of the city,” he wrote. “Its floods, its traffic, its filth, its pollution. Just deliver to us a world-standard antiterrorism plan.”

None of the previous terrorist attacks, even in Mumbai, had so struck the cream of Bombay society. Bombs have been planted on commuter trains in the past, but few people who regularly dine at the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower hotel, one of the worst-hit sites, travel by train. “It has touched a raw nerve,” [***[said Amit Chandra, who runs a prominent investment firm. “People have lost friends. Everyone would visit these places.” In any event, public anger could not have come at a worse time for incumbent politicians, who were at their most contrite last week. National elections are due next spring, and security is likely to be one of the top issues in the vote, particularly among the urban middle class. It remains to be seen whether outrage will prompt them to turn out to vote in higher numbers or whether politicians will be compelled to pay greater attention to them than in the past. [Mumbaikers: please take a look at what Americans demanded after 9/11] [so eager were we Americans for security that we essentially gave unchecked power to the executive branch to do with it what it felt necessary] [for out fears, we got the unitary executive, exaggerated renditions, loss of habeas corpus, and so on] [learn from our mistakes] [what’s more, another attack is almost certain in the next several months] [so we paid a high price for what?] [***]

“There’s a revulsion against the political class I have never seen before,” said Gerson D’Cunha, a former advertising executive whose civic group, A.G.N.I., presses for better governing. “The middle class that is laid back, lethargic, indolent, they’ve been galvanized.”

For how long? That is a question on everyone’s lips. At a memorial service on Thursday evening for a slain alumnus of the elite St. Xavier’s College here, a placard asked: “One month from now, will you care?”

“It’s helplessness, what do we do?” said Probir Roy, the owner of a technology company and an alumnus of St. Xavier’s. “All the various stakeholders — the police, politicians — you can’t count on them anyway. Now what do you do?”

Tops, a private security agency, has plenty to do. It is consulting schools, malls and “high net individuals” on how to protect themselves better. Security was a growth industry in India even before the latest attacks. Tops’s global chairman, Rahul Nanda, said the company employed 73,000 security guards today, compared with about 15,000 three years ago.

Mumbai is not the only place suffering from official neglect. Public services have deteriorated across India, all the more so in the countryside. Government schools are notoriously mismanaged. Doctors do not show up to work on public health projects. Corruption is endemic. In some of India’s booming cities, private developers drill for their own water and generate electricity for their own buildings. [India lacks basic institutions necessary to make sense from anarchy] [***]

Political interference often gets in the way of the woefully understaffed and poorly paid police force. Courts and commissions have called for law enforcement to be liberated from political control. Politicians have balked.

The three-day standoff with terrorists was neither the deadliest that India has seen, nor the most protracted; there have been other extended convulsions of violence, including mass killings of Sikhs in Delhi in 1984 and of Muslims in Gujarat in 2002.

Yet, the recent attacks, which Indian police say were the work of a Pakistan-based terrorist group called Lashkar-e-Taiba, were profoundly different. Two of the four main targets were luxury hotels frequented by the city’s wealthy elite: the Taj, facing the Gateway of India, and the twin Oberoi and Trident hotels, a few miles west on Nariman Point. They were the elite’s watering holes and business dinner destinations. And to lose them, said Alex Kuruvilla, who runs the Condé Nast publications in India, is like losing a limb. [***]

“It’s like what I imagine an amputee would feel,” he said. “It’s so much part of our lives.”

Last Wednesday, on the night of the candlelight vigil, Mr. Kuruvilla’s driver made a wrong turn. A traffic policeman virtually pounced on the driver and then let him go with a bribe of 20 rupees, less than 50 cents. Mr. Kuruvilla is not optimistic about swift change. “Our cynicism is justified,” he said. [****]

Ashok Pawar, a police constable from the police station nearest the Taj, entered the hotel the night the siege began. It was full of gunfire and smoke. He could not breathe, and he did not know his way around. “It was my first time inside the Taj,” he said. “How can a poor man go there?”

In The Indian Express newspaper on Friday, a columnist named Vinay Sitapati wrote a pointed open letter to “South Bombay,” shorthand for the city’s most wealthy enclave. The column first berated the rich for lecturing at Davos and failing in Hindi exams. “You refer to your part of the city simply as ‘town,’ ” he wrote, and then he begged: “Vote in person. But vote in spirit, too: use your clout to demand better politicians, not pliant ones.” [***]
“In your hour of need today,” he added, “it is India that needs your help.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Indian Police Arrest 2 in Mumbai Investigation and Look at Cellphone Link

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/world/asia/07mumbai.html
December 7, 2008
Indian Police Arrest 2 in Mumbai Investigation and Look at Cellphone Link
By JEREMY KAHN [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [****]
MUMBAI, India — The police in New Delhi and Calcutta arrested two men on Friday night and were investigating whether they helped procure SIM cards that terrorists used

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/world/asia/07mumbai.html
December 7, 2008
Indian Police Arrest 2 in Mumbai Investigation and Look at Cellphone Link
By JEREMY KAHN [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [****]
MUMBAI, India — The police in New Delhi and Calcutta arrested two men on Friday night and were investigating whether they helped procure SIM cards that terrorists used to make calls during their attacks [***]last month in Mumbai, a deputy Calcutta police commissioner said.

The men, Tauseef Rehman, a native of Calcutta, and Mukhtar Ahmed, originally from the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, are charged with fraud and criminal conspiracy, accused of using false documents to buy subscriber identity module, or SIM, [***]cards. Mr. Rehman was arrested in Calcutta and Mr. Ahmed in New Delhi.

The police official, Javed Shamim, said both men were in Calcutta in October when Mr. Rehman used a dead relative’s photo identification to buy the SIM cards. Mr. Rehman then activated them and either gave or sold them to Mr. Ahmed, Mr. Shamim said. He emphasized that no definitive links to the attacks in Mumbai had been established by the police. [***]

Rakesh Maria, a joint commissioner with the Mumbai police, said Friday that the police had recovered seven cellphones, in addition to three Global Positioning System handsets and one satellite phone, all of which they believed the terrorists had used. [***]

The police have said that 10 terrorists carried out the attacks on luxury hotels and several other locations that began on Nov. 26, and that all of them came from Pakistan. This was the first sign that the attackers may have had help from Indian citizens. [***]

In a signal of how fraught the relations between nuclear-armed Indian and Pakistan have become, the English-language newspaper Dawn in Pakistan reported Saturday that the Pakistani government had put its forces on high alert during the siege in Mumbai after what appeared to have been a prank call to the president. The caller pretended to be India’s foreign minister and threatened military action unless Pakistan’s president, Asif Ali Zardari, acted immediately against those responsible for the attacks, Dawn said. [***]

The report said the air force was on alert for 24 hours.

Decribing [sic] [***] the lead-up to the Friday night arrests, Mr. Shamin said the police traced the SIM cards used during the Mumbai attacks to Mr. Rehman in Calcutta. The police then forced Mr. Rehman to call Mr. Ahmed and ask him his location. This allowed the police to find and arrest him in New Delhi, [***]the deputy commissioner said.

Mr. Ahmed is believed to be a member of a police force in the city of Srinagar, in Indian-controlled Kashmir, but the Calcutta police have not verified this, according to Manab Bandopadhy, [***]a Calcutta police spokesman.

Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Pakistani-based militant group that Indian and American officials believe was behind the attacks in Mumbai, which killed 163 people, has long been focused on trying to wrest Kashmir from Indian control and has had a history of infiltrating militants into that state. [hitherto, Lashkar was Kashmir only] [now it appears to be buying into OBL’s global jihad—targeting Westerners, so on] [***]

The Mumbai police said last week that they were searching for anyone in Mumbai or elsewhere in India who might have aided the attackers. Friday’s arrests were the first thought to be connected to the case other than that of the single surviving gunman, a Pakistani citizen identified by the police as Muhammad Ajmal Kasab, [***]who is in custody in Mumbai.

In a brief conversation Saturday night, Mr. Maria of the Mumbai police confirmed reports that F.B.I. agents had taken DNA samples from Mr. Kasab that they hoped to compare with relatives in Pakistan to confirm his identity. But he denied reports that the F.B.I. or other foreign governments had been given direct access to Mr. Kasab. [I know it’s a matter of pride and sovereignty but the Indians ought to let the FBI interrogate] [***]

Police investigators say that an Indian man, Faheem Ahmed Ansari, in jail in Uttar Pradesh, India, may also be linked to the militants who attacked Mumbai. Mr. Ansari, who was detained in February, has told the authorities that he scouted targets in Mumbai for another Lashkar-e-Taiba plot. That plan was foiled when he and five co-conspirators were captured in connection with an attack on a police training camp in the city of Rampur that took place last New Year’s Eve. [***]

Mr. Ansari told the police in Uttar Pradesh that he had been in contact with two Lashkar-e-Taiba leaders, Zaki ur-Rehman Lakhvi, and a man known alternately as Yusuf or Muzammil. Those two men also directed the Mumbai attacks, [***]according to the police.

In an additional development, an explosive device was found at a hospital in Nagpur, in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, according to Pravin Dikshit, the police commissioner there. The hospital was evacuated and the bomb was being defused, Mr. Dikshit said. He declined to provide further details, and it was unclear whether the bomb was linked to the attacks.

The militants in the Mumbai attacks each carried a 17-pound bomb, which they planted throughout the city, according to the police. Seven of the bombs exploded. [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

South Asia’s Deadly Dominoes

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/weekinreview/07cooper.html
December 7, 2008
South Asia’s Deadly Dominoes
By HELENE COOPER [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [****]
WASHINGTON — The Mumbai attacks may have begun with Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani guerrilla group known in the West mostly for its preoccupation with Kashmir. But by the time the crisis finally ends, foreign policy experts say, the fallout may have expanded to include the United States, NATO, Afghanistan and Iran. [***]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/weekinreview/07cooper.html
December 7, 2008
South Asia’s Deadly Dominoes
By HELENE COOPER [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [****]
WASHINGTON — The Mumbai attacks may have begun with Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistani guerrilla group known in the West mostly for its preoccupation with Kashmir. But by the time the crisis finally ends, foreign policy experts say, the fallout may have expanded to include the United States, NATO, Afghanistan and Iran. [***]

Once again, South Asia is showing itself to be vulnerable to contagion.

President-elect Barack Obama during the campaign laid out an intricate construction for what might happen in South Asia with the right American push. He advocated increasing American troops in Afghanistan and pressing Pakistan to do more to evict foreign fighters and to attack training camps for radical terrorists along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

Such actions, Mr. Obama said, would help prevent the Taliban and Al Qaeda from using Pakistani soil as a staging area for attacks in Afghanistan or on the United States or other Western targets.

Seldom did Mr. Obama mention or include India in his roadmap to peace in South Asia. During an interview with Time magazine, Mr. Obama did hint at trying to make a diplomatic push to mediate the Kashmir issue. But most of his South Asia focus has been on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The trouble, South Asia experts say, is that just about every issue in the region is somehow interconnected, and they all have a tendency to set each other off. The Mumbai attacks killed 163 civilians and members of the security forces, , and terrorized India’s most populous city for more than three days. But when the dust had cleared, “there was a lot more wreckage than just that,” [***]said Teresita C. Schaffer, a South Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Strategically, the Mumbai massacres have brought into stark relief just how tenuous are American hopes for any kind of calm in Pakistan and Afghanistan, let alone victory over militant forces in the region. [***]

Forget worrying about the hunt for Osama bin Laden along their shared border, and the battle against a resurgent Taliban. After Mumbai, it is suddenly all anyone can do just to keep Indians and Pakistanis from war. [***]

“Step back and consider the situation the Mumbai attackers have created,” said George Friedman, chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical risk analysis company.

Mr. Friedman laid out a frightening domino theory of possible repercussions of Mumbai. Warning: it gets scary fast.

1. India’s already weak government decides it has to retaliate against Pakistan or risk falling. [***]

India didn’t retaliate after the deadly bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul July 7. But many Indians view the Mumbai attacks the same way Americans viewed the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, and the Indian government is under enormous pressure to retaliate, perhaps by bombing training camps in Pakistan. [***]Seven years ago, when gunmen attacked India’s Parliament in New Delhi, the Indian government moved forces close to the Pakistani border and brought its nuclear forces to a higher alert level, prompting a similar response from Pakistan and an intense crisis between the two nuclear rivals. Since then, the Indian government has been more restrained. But you can’t expect that restraint to dissolve were a firm link between the Mumbai attack and Pakistan’s intelligence service to emerge. [***]

2. Pakistan responds by withdrawing forces from western Pakistan, where they can fight Al Qaeda and the Taliban, to the India-Pakistan border. [***]

Pakistan security officials have already warned that if the situation with India worsens, they will shift troops from western areas, and pointedly noted during a news conference that such a step would likely upset the United States because it would mean resources were being moved from the fight against Islamic militants along the Afghan border. The Americans have been pressing Pakistan for more military action against the militants, not less. [to be clear, Pakistan’s military does what it wants largely independent from the elected Zardari govt] [***]

While part of Pakistan’s threat was “half designed to scare the daylights out of the United States,” part of it was serious, Ms. Schaffer said. “The serious part of it is, as far as the Pakistan Army is concerned, India is still the existential threat. If it looked as if India was going to take some kind of military action, there would be a re-deployment so fast it would make your head spin.”

3. Taliban forces, freed from having to watch out for Pakistani troops, are strengthened along the Afghan border; Qaeda operatives are more secure. [and one must presume they have already been planning something against the West just for the sake of basic prudence] [it now gets accelerated] [***]

A resurgent Taliban that is freed from having to fight a two-front war will turn its full attention to American and NATO troops in Afghanistan. Mr. Obama has already said he wants to send two additional combat brigades to Afghanistan, where violence has climbed — allied military deaths there have reached 267 this year, the most ever. The American military plan for the war in Afghanistan assumes some help from Pakistani troops on the border. It also assumes that the United States can continue to use Pakistan for logistical support for the Afghanistan war. [it has far too little counterinsurgency to it and far too many bombs from 8 miles high] [***]

4. The United States’ situation in Afghanistan goes from bad to worse.

For the American military effort in Afghanistan to succeed, the Pakistani military needs to establish control of the lawless territory between the two countries. It is virtually impossible, South Asia experts say, to envision a scenario where American soldiers themselves could establish control of the border regions, with their mountainous terrain and a local population that is sympathetic to Islamist militants. So America is seeking a greater willingness from Pakistani leaders to go after Qaeda and Taliban operatives along the border; a Pakistani government that is distracted by a new flare-up with India would not figure into those plans.

5. Iran, watching Pakistan and India rattling their nuclear sabers, concludes that it is in a better position to insist on pursuing its nuclear program. [this has already happened presumably] [***]

Mr. Obama has said he will do whatever he can to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, including breaking with years of American foreign policy and sitting down with Iran’s leaders, if necessary. But for decades, some Iranians have argued that their country needs a nuclear weapons capacity to match the influence of, or deter, neighbors like India, Pakistan and Israel — not to mention Russia and China. Foreign policy experts say that persuading Iran’s leaders to stop their current uranium enrichment program before it makes such a goal attainable would only get harder if they could point to a nuclear standoff taking place between Pakistan and India.

The Mumbai attacks, said Mr. Friedman, of Stratfor, “could leave Obama’s entire South Asia strategy in shambles.” [***]

Turkish officials have stepped in to try to help, summoning Afghanistan’s president, Hamid Karzai, and Pakistan’s president, Asif Ali Zardari, to Istanbul for talks. A senior Turkish official involved in the talks expressed optimism that diplomacy could somehow avert a further ratcheting up of tensions in South Asia. Speaking on condition of anonymity under normal diplomatic rules, the diplomat said that the Mumbai terrorists “wanted to create a problem for the whole region, because they knew this could radicalize the population more.” [***] But, he said, none of that has to happen — if the Indian government resists the domestic pressure to hit back at Pakistan.
“It would be too much,” he said, “to start a war just to keep a government in place.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

The Kashmir Connection: A Puzzle

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/weekinreview/07weiner.html
December 7, 2008
The Kashmir Connection: A Puzzle
By TIM WEINER [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [how Kashmir, Lashkar’s principal justification, at least until recently, fits?] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [****]
All of the nightmares of the 21st century come together in Pakistan,” in the words of the former C.I.A. officer Bruce Riedel. Among them is Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Army of the

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/weekinreview/07weiner.html
December 7, 2008
The Kashmir Connection: A Puzzle
By TIM WEINER [India] [Mumbai Massacres] [how Kashmir, Lashkar’s principal justification, at least until recently, fits?] [SAsia] [by almost all accounts, the Zardari government is trying to stop these jihadis and asking for help] [here Pakistan denies what Indians take as granted] [at least some of the jihadis came from Pakistan but it’s extremely difficult to know how much if any cooperation comes from Pakistan’s military and/or ISI elements] [followup] [use psci469b] [new details invariably emerge that greatly complicate South Asia politics] [as US discovered after 9/11, warnings were ubiquitous that Mumbai was in wings] [****]
All of the nightmares of the 21st century come together in Pakistan,” in the words of the former C.I.A. officer Bruce Riedel. Among them is Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Army of the Pure, [***]the group being blamed for the deadly attacks in Mumbai.

American intelligence on Lashkar falls into three categories. The biggest is the unknown. What little is known is bad enough. The what-ifs are worse: in particular, a possible strategic partnership between Lashkar and Al Qaeda’s forces in Pakistan. [***] Then there is the unknown. [it’s certainly plausible] [their acts smacked of al Qaeda m.o.] [they may have linked up for logisitics and training] [***]

If there were operational links between Lashkar and Al Qaeda in the multiple attacks that terrorized Mumbai for three days last week, American counterterrorism officials are still looking for the evidence. Beyond informed speculation, no proof in the public domain shows those two groups have a working alliance. But they have had some common goals and common ground. [***]

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, visiting India, said she would not “jump to any conclusions,” given the absence of proof. But she also said: “Whether there is a direct Al Qaeda hand or not, this is clearly the kind of terrorism in which Al Qaeda participates.” [**]

Still, there are clues half-buried in the recent past. Here is some of what is known:

First, American intelligence officials are all but certain that Lashkar led the attacks, which left 163 people — including 18 members of India’s security forces — dead along with 9 suspected terrorists. [***]“The same group that we believe is responsible for Mumbai had a similar attack in 2006 on a train and killed a similar number of people,” the director of national intelligence, Mike McConnell, said last week in a speech at Harvard. “Go back to 2001 and it was an attack on the Parliament.” The Mumbai commuter train bombings killed at least 186. A dozen died in the assault on Parliament, which led to talk of war. [***]

Second, Pakistan’s intelligence services have used Lashkar as a guerrilla force to fight India over their disputed border in Kashmir. [in other words, ISI has used Lashkar as it has used Talibs] [***] That fight has raged since the British partitioned India and Pakistan in 1947. The rival nations went to war that year over Kashmir, and again in 1965 and 1971. Tens of thousands have been killed in political warfare since then.

Third, and most significantly, Lashkar’s roots, like Al Qaeda’s, lie in another war — the battle between Soviet forces occupying Afghanistan and Islamic rebels who fought them in the 1980’s. The rebels were backed by billions of dollars from the United States and Saudi Arabia. [****]Their money and guns flowed through Pakistani intelligence.

In 1989, the Red Army left Afghanistan. The international Islamic holy warriors did not; many thousands of radicals from some 40 nations came to learn the lessons of jihad in Afghanistan, and Lashkar’s first foot soldiers were among them. [***]

Lashkar was founded in 1989, supported by Saudi money and protected by Pakistani spies, according to Hussain Haqqani, [***]Pakistan’s current ambassador to the United States, a former journalist who opposed Gen. Pervez Musharraf when the general was Pakistan’s ruler. Pakistan’s role as quartermaster and state sponsor of Afghan jihad forces created “a nexus between Pakistan’s military and secret services, which was heightened by the state sponsorship of jihad against India,” [***]he has written.

After the attacks of September 2001, it was clearer that Al Qaeda had formed alliances with Lashkar: the first high-level Qaeda prisoner taken after 9/11, Abu Zubayda, was captured in a Lashkar safe house in Pakistan, as Mr. Riedel, now affiliated with the Brookings Institution, pointed out in an article posted online last Wednesday. [***]Other Qaeda operatives who fled after American forces arrived in Afghanistan also holed up with Lashkar, he noted.

In December 2001, after the Lashkar attack on India’s Parliament, President Bush added the group to the official United States list of international terrorist organizations. He asked General Musharraf to jail Lashkar’s leaders and break up the group.

Some members were arrested. Others went to fight Americans alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan rather than continue their battles against India’s Hindus in Kashmir, as the State Department and India’s Defense Ministry have reported; by 2006, attacks by Lashkar and its allies in Kashmir were half what they were a few years before. [***] [tactical change probably related to al Qaeda convincing them of efficacy of certain near enemies versus far enemies] [***]

But on April 23, 2006, Osama bin Laden seemed to signal an open alliance with groups like Lashkar, and their goals. He issued a proclamation denouncing “a Crusader-Zionist-Hindu war against Muslims.” He referred to the United States, Israel and India in the statement, as it was broadcast and translated by Al Jazeera. [**]“A U.N. resolution passed more than half a century ago gave Muslim Kashmir the liberty of choosing independence from India,” it said. “George Bush, the leader of the crusaders’ campaign, announced a few days ago that he will order his converted agent Musharraf to shut down the Kashmir mujahedeen camps, thus affirming that it is a Zionist-Hindu war against Muslims.”

Mr. bin Laden called for Islamic holy warriors to continue jihad against India over Kashmir. They did. Lashkar and other Kashmiri groups “continued regional attack planning” in 2007, and “continued to support attacks in Afghanistan,” [***]the State Department reported six months ago. The groups also continued to feature prominently in Al Qaeda’s “transnational attack planning,” the report said.

Then, in an August audio tape, Al Qaeda’s second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, proclaimed that “the American, Zionist and Indian flags were raised high” over the bodies of dead Islamic fighters in Pakistan. [***]Jarret Brachman, who was director of research at West Point’s Center for Combating Terrorism from 2004 to 2008, points to that statement as potentially significant.

“He starts redirecting Pakistani jihadi attention to the evils of India and linking it more visibly to the U.S. and Israel,” he said. “The Mumbai attacks should really come as no surprise to anybody who’s been listening carefully to Al Qaeda’s rhetoric. Even if Al Qaeda had nothing to do with it operationally, their peddling of this anti-Indian sentiment undoubtedly inspires more parochial groups, like Lashkar, to operationalize those ideas.” [****]

Intelligence work is about secrets and mysteries, as Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who used to run the C.I.A., often says. The Mumbai massacres remain something of a mystery. Of late, “Al Qaeda has seemed strategically schizophrenic,” Mr. Brachman said. “How do they turn their hate list into a target list?” He said that no one knows if this attack was the start of something new. [****]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

December 06, 2008

Obama Promises Public Works on a Vast Scale

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/us/politics/07radio.html
December 7, 2008
Obama Promises Public Works on a Vast Scale
By PETER BAKER [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [a critical mass may have been reached wherein the new administration might actually create significant public-works program for infrastrucure and greening US] [******]
WASHINGTON — President-elect Barack Obama on Saturday committed to the largest public works building program since the creation of the interstate highway system a half-

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/us/politics/07radio.html
December 7, 2008
Obama Promises Public Works on a Vast Scale
By PETER BAKER [president-elect Obama administration] [strange co-existence of transition period] [there’s but 1 president but these extraordinary times may call for more collaboration than before] [and president Bush has carefully set up special briefings] [good for Bush] [with this week’s unemployment numbers] [a critical mass may have been reached wherein the new administration might actually create significant public-works program for infrastrucure and greening US] [******]
WASHINGTON — President-elect Barack Obama on Saturday committed to the largest public works building program since the creation of the interstate highway system a half-century ago as he sought to put together a plan to resuscitate the reeling economy.

“We need action — and action now,” Mr. Obama said in an address taped for broadcast Saturday morning on radio and YouTube.

The address followed the latest grim economic report indicating that the country lost 533,000 jobs in November alone, bringing the total job loss over the past year to nearly 2 million. Although Mr. Obama is weeks from taking office, the report increased the pressure on him to assert leadership.

Mr. Obama and his team are working with Congressional leaders to develop a spending package that could invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the economy. A large part of that would go toward infrastructure projects like building or repairing roads, bridges, schools, sewer systems and other public utilities.

Democrats hope the new Congress that takes office in early January can pass such a measure in time for Mr. Obama to sign it almost immediately after taking office Jan. 20.

The president-elect also offered general ideas of what else he wanted to see in the package. Mr. Obama promised to make government buildings more energy efficient, modernize school classrooms and libraries with computers, expand access to broadband Internet service, and improve information technology in hospitals and doctors’ offices.

But the largest share of the money will be dedicated to public works. “We will create millions of jobs by making the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s,” Mr. Obama said.

He did not give any estimate of how much he would devote to that purpose, but when he met with the nation’s governors last week, they said the states had $136 billion worth of approved road, bridge and other projects ready to go as soon as funding became available. They estimated that each one billion dollars spent would create 40,000 jobs.

By invoking the federal interstate program, Mr. Obama sought to summon the spirit of President Dwight D. Eisenhower, who started the highway construction that became integral to the nation’s economic development. That imagery seemed intended to respond to critics, who argue that public works spending has historically not been a reliable catalyst for short-term economic growth and instead is more about politicians gaining points with constituents.

Eisenhower signed the Federal-Aid Highway Act in 1956, ultimately resulting in the construction of 42,795 miles of roads. In 1991, the government concluded that the total cost came to $128.9 billion, with the federal government bearing $114.3 billion of the tab and the states picking up the rest.

Mr. Obama promised to set new rules to govern spending, such as a “use it or lose it” requirement that states act quickly to invest in roads and bridges or sacrifice the federal money.

“We won’t do it the old Washington way,” Mr. Obama said. “We won’t just throw money at the problem. We’ll measure progress by the reforms we make and the results we achieve — by the jobs we create, by the energy we save, by whether America is more competitive in the world.”

Gov. David Paterson of New York issued a statement on Saturday morning praising Mr. Obama’s public works plan. “In New York, we know how difficult a time this is to be dependent upon government aid,” Mr. Paterson said. “And I agree with my colleagues that President-elect Obama’s call for a ’use-it-or-lose-it’ concept is a smart and fair approach to sharing these limited federal funds.”

Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania also endorsed the plan, adding: “Although speed in delivering these projects is vital, it is not the only consideration. We have a responsibility to spend this money wisely, as well as quickly.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Justices Take Case on President’s Power to Detain

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/us/w05scotus-web.html
December 6, 2008
Justices Take Case on President’s Power to Detain
By ADAM LIPTAK [bush white house] [president Bush] [all manner of sins justified under the executive theory of war power clause—virtually plenary power] [however, the Supremes may finally be able to rule on it] [don’t be surprised if the Bush administration changes his status from enemy combatant and sends him into federal courts to avoid the possibility of a ruling that would can bull s**t on Bush administration’s theory] [followup] [use psci355, 455, 469b] [****]
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court agreed on Friday to decide the most fundamental question yet concerning executive power in the age of terrorism: May the

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/us/w05scotus-web.html
December 6, 2008
Justices Take Case on President’s Power to Detain
By ADAM LIPTAK [bush white house] [president Bush] [all manner of sins justified under the executive theory of war power clause—virtually plenary power] [however, the Supremes may finally be able to rule on it] [don’t be surprised if the Bush administration changes his status from enemy combatant and sends him into federal courts to avoid the possibility of a ruling that would can bull s**t on Bush administration’s theory] [followup] [use psci355, 455, 469b] [****]
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court agreed on Friday to decide the most fundamental question yet concerning executive power in the age of terrorism: May the president order the indefinite military detention of people living legally in the United States? [of course not] [***]

The case concerns Ali al-Marri, the only person on the American mainland being held as an enemy combatant, who is in custody at the Navy brig in Charleston, S.C. Mr. Marri, a citizen of Qatar, was legally in the United States when he was arrested in December 2001 in Peoria, Ill., where he was living with his family and studying computer science at Bradley University. [***]

Eighteen months later, when Mr. Marri was on the verge of a trial on credit card fraud and other charges, President Bush declared him an enemy combatant, moving him from the custody of the Justice Department to military detention. The government says Mr. Marri, who has been held in isolation for more than five years without being charged, is a Qaeda “sleeper agent” sent to the United States to commit mass murder and disrupt the banking system. [based on what evidence?] [****]

The central question in the case is whether Mr. Marri should be treated as an enemy soldier who may be held until hostilities end or as a criminal like Timothy J. McVeigh, who was convicted in a civilian court of blowing up the Oklahoma City federal building.

Matthew Waxman, a former Defense Department official with responsibility for detainee affairs, said the answer to the question in Mr. Marri’s case could affect some prisoners being held at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, who also have not been accused of fighting American armed forces on behalf of a foreign nation or group.

“The main legal issue at stake here,” said Mr. Waxman, who is now a law professor at Columbia, “is what does it mean to be an enemy combatant in a war against Al Qaeda?”

The case, which will probably be argued in March, will present the Obama administration with a series of difficult strategic choices. It can continue to defend the Bush administration’s expansive interpretation of executive power, advance a more modest one or short-circuit the case by moving it to the criminal justice system or by deporting Mr. Marri. [sadly, Obama may not want to throw away super powers gained under Bush] [***]

In a statement, Brooke Anderson, a policy adviser and spokeswoman for Barack Obama’s transition team, declined to comment on the case. Ms. Anderson said Mr. Obama would decide how to handle detainees when his full national security and legal teams were in place.

A Justice Department spokesman, Dean Boyd, said only that “we look forward to making our case to the Supreme Court.”

Jonathan Hafetz, a lawyer for Mr. Marri with the American Civil Liberties Union, said the Bush administration’s assertion that it had the power to detain lawful residents indefinitely and without charges must be addressed.

“This assertion should never have been made, should never be made again and should be struck down,” Mr. Hafetz said.

Last July, the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, in Richmond, Va., issued a fractured decision in the case. In one 5-to-4 ruling, the court said the president had the legal authority to detain Mr. Marri.

But a second, overlapping 5-to-4 majority of the court ruled that Mr. Marri must be given an additional opportunity to challenge his detention in federal court. An earlier court proceeding, in which the government had presented only a sworn statement from a defense intelligence official, was inadequate, the second majority ruled.

The government had urged the Supreme Court to put off consideration of the case, Al Marri v. Pucciarelli, No. 08-368, until the trial court proceeding was redone.

Two other men have been held as enemy combatants on the American mainland since the Sept. 11 attacks. Rulings in their cases will inform the Supreme Court’s treatment of Mr. Marri.

In Hamdi v. Rumsfeld, five justices of the Supreme Court said in 2004 that Congress had granted the president power to detain at least those enemy combatants captured on the battlefield in Afghanistan, even if they were American citizens, for the duration of hostilities there. [****] But the detainee in that case, Yaser Hamdi, was freed and sent to Saudi Arabia not long after the court’s decision, which also allowed him to challenge his detention. [***]

Based on the Hamdi decision, the Fourth Circuit in 2005 upheld the detention of Jose Padilla, an American arrested at a Chicago airport. Although Mr. Padilla was said to have ties to Al Qaeda, the Fourth Circuit decision largely turned on his activities on the battlefield in Afghanistan. Just before the Supreme Court was to decide whether to hear his case for a second time, Mr. Padilla was transferred to the criminal justice system. He was convicted last year on charges related to terrorism.

The Supreme Court’s decision in Mr. Marri’s case may be quite limited, given his unique status, or quite broad.

The divided three-judge Fourth Circuit panel that ruled in June 2007 for Mr. Marri, in a decision later vacated by the full court, based its ruling on a proposition that could be applied broadly should the Supreme Court adopt it. Judge Diana Gribbon Motz wrote for the majority that Mr. Marri was a civilian and may not be detained by the military. [****]

Because Mr. Marri was not alleged to have fought with the Taliban or the armed forces of any enemy nation or to have engaged in combat with United States forces, Judge Motz reasoned, President Bush was powerless to have the military detain him, just as he could not have ordered the military detentions of “the Unabomber or the perpetrators of the Oklahoma City bombing.” [****]

In a recent brief, the government provided the justices with a sworn 2004 statement from Jeffrey N. Rapp, the military intelligence official. The statement, declassified in 2006, said Mr. Marri had met with Osama bin Laden and Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the chief 9/11 plotter, in the summer of 2001. “Al-Marri offered to be an Al Qaeda martyr or to do anything else that Al Qaeda requested,” Mr. Rapp said. The Qaeda leaders told Mr. Marri, the statement said, to leave for the United States and to make sure he got there before Sept. 11. [****]

The government’s brief said Congress must have intended to allow the detention of people like Mr. Marri and called a contrary interpretation absurd. Such a reading, the brief said, “relies on the assumption that when Congress authorized the use of military force to respond to the Sept. 11 attacks, it did not intend to reach individuals virtually identically situated to the Sept. 11 hijackers.”

In a brief filed last month, lawyers for Mr. Marri said the court should not delay consideration of the case.

“Since the nation’s founding,” the brief said, “persons lawfully residing in this country have correctly understood that they can be imprisoned for suspected wrongdoing only if the government charges them with a crime and tries them before a jury.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company