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October 30, 2008

Radiation Detectors' Value Is Questioned

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102903920.html
Radiation Detectors' Value Is Questioned
GAO Says Agency Overstated Efficacy
By Robert O'Harrow Jr.
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A15 [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [DHS and its various entities that guard US borders] [DHS’s Domestic Nuclear Detection Office?] [congress] [110th congress, 2nd session] [has the US been fooling itself with the notion that detectors can prevent radiological materials from entering the US?] [******]
Officials at the Department of Homeland Security have overstated the performance of costly new radiation detectors designed to prevent the importation of radiological materials that could be used in bombs, according to an unreleased government report. [***]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102903920.html
Radiation Detectors' Value Is Questioned
GAO Says Agency Overstated Efficacy
By Robert O'Harrow Jr.
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A15 [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [DHS and its various entities that guard US borders] [DHS’s Domestic Nuclear Detection Office?] [congress] [110th congress, 2nd session] [has the US been fooling itself with the notion that detectors can prevent radiological materials from entering the US?] [******]
Officials at the Department of Homeland Security have overstated the performance of costly new radiation detectors designed to prevent the importation of radiological materials that could be used in bombs, according to an unreleased government report. [***]

The department's Domestic Nuclear Detection Office [****]has claimed in a recent report that new tests show the detection machines, known as Advanced Spectroscopic Portal monitors, can more accurately detect and identify radioactive materials than existing equipment in use across the country, the Government Accountability Office said in its report.

The detection office's assessment is part of an effort by the troubled Bush administration program to win congressional approval to deploy the machines. [***]

But auditors who have examined the test results said the office's claims cannot be backed up by statistical evidence. That's because the data collected from what is called the Phase 3 test was too limited, [****] according to the report by the GAO, the investigative arm of Congress.

"Because the limitations of the Phase 3 test results are not appropriately stated in the Phase 3 test report, the report does not accurately depict the results from the tests and could be misleading," the GAO auditors wrote.

The GAO findings trouble lawmakers who have expressed concern that the department is trying to push technology without knowing whether it is worth the expense. The GAO has said the machines could cost $778,000 each to buy and install, far more than detection office estimates two years ago. [****]

"I'm concerned that the testing for the new detectors remains flawed," said Rep. John D. Dingell (D-Mich.), chairman of the Committee on Energy and Commerce, one of the panels that has been examining the program. "We still don't know if this extremely expensive technology works any better than the current equipment. Until there is objective and concrete evidence that the new machines have clear benefits over the existing detectors, I cannot support additional procurements." [****]

In a letter responding to the GAO conclusions, the detection office derided the findings as "misleading and not substantiated." The detection office said the GAO has failed "to acknowledge the depth and breadth" of the program's test campaign. [****]

In a statement, a homeland security spokeswoman said the detection office "is currently undertaking a comprehensive test and evaluation program on ASP systems [****]and will use previous test data as well. The department has been following a prudent path leading to certification of ASP systems."

The dispute is the latest in a series over the last two years that have slowed development of the radiation detector program, one of the Bush administration's top national security initiatives. [***] [it’s a worthy goal] [but if the current machines are not working, the US needs to know that and look for other methods] [****]

The GAO has repeatedly asserted that the detection office has misled Congress about the costs of the machines and their effectiveness, questions that homeland security officials say are misguided.

The project was launched in July 2006 with the award of $1.2 billion in contracts to three companies for the development and deployment of the machines. Those contract awards came after the detection office delivered a report to Congress about the cost and effectiveness of the machines. [***]

Several months later, the GAO found that the detection office's estimates for detection rates were overstated and that the costs of the machines were significantly understated. [shocker] [****]

As a consequence, lawmakers mandated that Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff personally certify that the machines represent a significant operational improvement over existing equipment before they can be fully deployed.

Last year, the detection office conducted two rounds of tests of the machines, in part to support Chertoff's certification decision. The GAO concluded that the detection office's first round of tests were conducted in a biased way that "enhanced the apparent performance of the ASPs." [****]

After Customs and Border Protection officials questioned the operational effectiveness of the machines in field tests, Chertoff announced a delay in his certification decision. [****]

The GAO's new report focuses on the second round of detection office tests, called Phase 3. Detection office officials told government auditors that Phase 3 tests showed the machines "were as good as or better than" existing equipment "at detecting the presence of radiological source materials at low levels of radiological activity," [as good as does not cut it when the cost of the new machines is substantially higher than the older one, as appears the case here] [any report that uses the phrase as good as or better is straining credibility] [****] the GAO report said.

The GAO also answered complaints from the detection office that auditors ignored the extent of the program's testing.

"In our view, regardless of how many tests are performed, the tests must employ sound, unbiased methodologies and [the nuclear detection office] should draw and present conclusions from the test results in ways that accurately and fully reflect the data and disclose their limitations, " the GAO report said.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Army and Agency Will Study Rising Suicide Rate Among Soldiers

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/us/30soldiers.html
October 30, 2008
Army and Agency Will Study Rising Suicide Rate Among Soldiers
By LIZETTE ALVAREZ [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [the Pentagon and the DoD] [congress] [110th congress, 2nd session] [the alarming rise in suicide rates among soldiers who have served in the –ir and Afghanistan theaters] [I don’t think anybody is surprised by it] [rather, alarmed by how much higher than previously] [******]
Conceding it needed outside help in figuring out why the suicide rate among service members was rising, the Army announced plans on Wednesday to collaborate with the National Institute of Mental Health in an ambitious five-year project [***] to identify the causes and risk factors of suicide. [my hunch is we have a pretty good idea, anecdotally] [but certainly a systematic study is needed] [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/us/30soldiers.html
October 30, 2008
Army and Agency Will Study Rising Suicide Rate Among Soldiers
By LIZETTE ALVAREZ [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [the Pentagon and the DoD] [congress] [110th congress, 2nd session] [the alarming rise in suicide rates among soldiers who have served in the –ir and Afghanistan theaters] [I don’t think anybody is surprised by it] [rather, alarmed by how much higher than previously] [******]
Conceding it needed outside help in figuring out why the suicide rate among service members was rising, the Army announced plans on Wednesday to collaborate with the National Institute of Mental Health in an ambitious five-year project [***] to identify the causes and risk factors of suicide. [my hunch is we have a pretty good idea, anecdotally] [but certainly a systematic study is needed] [****]

The Army will make thousands of soldiers available to researchers for interviews and will provide access to its many databases, including those with medical, personnel, criminal and deployment histories. Researchers will draw from a cross section of the Army and will include soldiers who have just joined the service or are training for war and those who have returned from war.

Rather than wait until the study is completed, the National Institute of Mental Health will provide the Army with new information as researchers find it in the hopes of preventing soldier suicides. [****]

Peter Geren, the secretary of the Army, described the five-year, $50 million study as a “landmark undertaking” modeled after the Framingham Heart Study. That influential study looked at heart health over a long period of time among a large group of participants who had not yet developed symptoms or suffered a heart attack.

“The goal is to build resiliency and to prevent suicide,” said Mr. Geren, who approached the National Institute of Mental Health with the idea to partner on the project.

Suicides in the Army have been climbing since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. [****]In 2007, 115 soldiers killed themselves, a rate of 18.1 per 100,000 people, or 1 percent lower than the civilian rate. [at first blush: wars of choice in which the citizenry is divided cause troops to question more readily their dangerous involvements in said wars?] [***]

Of the 115, 36 soldiers killed themselves while deployed overseas, 50 had deployed at some point before the act and returned, and 29 had never deployed. Only a fraction had a prior diagnosis of post-traumatic stress disorder. [****] [harder to explain the 29 who had never deployed] [***]

The pace of suicides by soldiers in 2008 could eclipse last year’s. As of August, the number stood at 62 confirmed cases in the Army. An additional 31 deaths appear to be suicides and are under investigation.

Dr. S. Ward Cassells, assistant secretary of defense for health affairs, said the Army was familiar with the most common triggers: marital or relationship problems, poor job performance, feelings of failure on the battlefield and alcohol or drug abuse. Yet, in half the cases, Dr. Cassells said, the Army cannot figure out why the suicide occurred.

“We’ve reached a point where we do need some outside help,” Dr. Cassells said. “We’ve learned a lot. We’ve also learned we don’t understand it all.”

Dr. Thomas R. Insel, director of the National Institute of Mental Health, said researchers would study, among other things, the role that combat and multiple deployments play in suicide. They will conduct follow-up surveys of soldiers to show how risk factors evolve over time and shift their focus, as they see fit, [***]depending on what they find. The study also will look at existing treatments and gauge their effectiveness.

The findings could be far-reaching not just for the Army but for civilians, as well, Dr. Insel said.
“The Army really is a microcosm of the nation,” he said.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Call Him John the Careless

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102903199.html
Call Him John the Careless
By George F. Will
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A23 [oped] [columnist] [Will threw McCain under the Bush a week or two ago] [now he goes for blood] [it’s a little unbecoming of conservatives to begin circular firing squad before it’s over] [but they have their punditocracy status to worry about] [presidents come and go] [Will and his ilk stay!] [****]
From the invasion of Iraq to the selection of Sarah Palin, carelessness has characterized recent episodes of faux conservatism. [****]Tuesday's probable repudiation of the Republican Party will punish characteristics displayed in the campaign's closing days. [a Noam Chomskey of the right argument] [***]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102903199.html
Call Him John the Careless
By George F. Will
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A23 [oped] [columnist] [Will threw McCain under the Bush a week or two ago] [now he goes for blood] [it’s a little unbecoming of conservatives to begin circular firing squad before it’s over] [but they have their punditocracy status to worry about] [presidents come and go] [Will and his ilk stay!] [****]
From the invasion of Iraq to the selection of Sarah Palin, carelessness has characterized recent episodes of faux conservatism. [****]Tuesday's probable repudiation of the Republican Party will punish characteristics displayed in the campaign's closing days. [a Noam Chomskey of the right argument] [***]

Some polls show that Palin has become an even heavier weight in John McCain's saddle than his association with George W. Bush. Did McCain, who seems to think that Palin's never having attended a "Georgetown cocktail party" is sufficient qualification for the vice presidency, lift an eyebrow when she said that vice presidents "are in charge of the United States Senate"? [ouch] [****]

She may have been tailoring her narrative to her audience of third-graders, who do not know that vice presidents have no constitutional function in the Senate other than to cast tie-breaking votes. But does she know that when Lyndon Johnson, transformed by the 1960 election from Senate majority leader into vice president, ventured to the Capitol to attend the Democratic senators' weekly policy luncheon, the new majority leader, Montana's Mike Mansfield, supported by his caucus, barred him because his presence would be a derogation of the Senate's autonomy? [****]

Perhaps Palin's confusion about the office for which she is auditioning comes from listening to its current occupant. Dick Cheney, the foremost practitioner of this administration's constitutional carelessness in aggrandizing executive power, regularly attends the Senate Republicans' Tuesday luncheons. [***]He has said jocularly that he is "a product" of the Senate, which pays his salary, and that he has no "official duties" in the executive branch. His situational constitutionalism has, however, led him to assert, when claiming exemption from a particular executive order, that he is a member of the legislative branch and, when seeking to shield certain of his deliberations from legislative inquiry, to say that he is a member of the executive branch. [bingo] [Will, perhaps, has been seething like the rest of us who have watched in horror as these guys dumped on the founders’ checks and balances] [he might have spoken up before McCain came to represent the GOP] [I believe Will was one of those who didn’t like McCain’s mavericky style ever] [****]

Palin may be an inveterate simplifier; McCain has a history of reducing controversies to cartoons. [***]A Republican financial expert recalls attending a dinner with McCain for the purpose of discussing with him domestic and international financial complexities that clearly did not fascinate the senator. As the dinner ended, McCain's question for his briefer was: "So, who is the villain?" [****] [if true, it’s no more horrifying than Bush believing he was called to office by a higher power] [where was Will’s pique then?] [***]

McCain revived a familiar villain -- "huge amounts" of political money -- when Barack Obama announced that he had received contributions of $150 million in September. "The dam is broken," said McCain, whose constitutional carelessness involves wanting to multiply impediments to people who want to participate in politics by contributing to candidates -- people such as the 632,000 first-time givers to Obama in September. [***]

Why is it virtuous to erect a dam of laws to impede the flow of contributions by which citizens exercise their First Amendment right to political expression? "We're now going to see," McCain warned, "huge amounts of money coming into political campaigns, and we know history tells us that always leads to scandal." The supposedly inevitable scandal, which supposedly justifies preemptive government restrictions on Americans' freedom to fund the dissemination of political ideas they favor, presumably is that Obama will be pressured to give favors to his September givers. The contributions by the new givers that month averaged $86. [and we see, ultimately, Will has never forgiven McCain for McCain-Fiengold] [Will knows the worm always turns] [****]

One excellent result of this election cycle is that public financing of presidential campaigns now seems sillier than ever. The public has always disliked it: [***]Voluntary and cost-free participation, using the check-off on the income tax form, peaked at 28.7 percent in 1980 and has sagged to 9.2 percent. The Post, which is melancholy about the system's parlous condition, says there were three reasons for creating public financing: to free candidates from the demands of fundraising, to level the playing field and "to limit the amount of money pouring into presidential campaigns." The first reason is decreasingly persuasive because fundraising is increasingly easy because of new technologies such as the Internet. The second reason is, the Supreme Court says, constitutionally impermissible. Government may not mandate equality of resources among political competitors who earn different levels of voluntary support. As for the third reason -- "huge amounts" (McCain) of money "pouring into" (The Post) presidential politics -- well:

The Center for Responsive Politics calculates that, by Election Day, $2.4 billion will have been spent on presidential campaigns in the two-year election cycle that began in January 2007, and an additional $2.9 billion will have been spent on 435 House and 35 Senate contests. This $5.3 billion is a billion less than Americans will spend this year on potato chips. [***]
georgewill@washpost.com
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Still No. 1

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102903202.html
Still No. 1
By Robert Kagan
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A23 [oped] [columnist] [America’s decline] [I remember the same fears back in late 1980s-early 1990s] [Henry Lau refuted the Kennedy argument and other decline-of-empire ones] [this time is more substantial test] [****]
Is Barack Obama the candidate of American decline? To hear some of his supporters among the foreign policy punditry, you'd think he was. Francis Fukuyama says he supports Obama because he believes Obama would be better at "managing" American decline [***] than John McCain. Fareed Zakaria writes weekly encomiums to Obama's "realism," by which he means Obama's acquiescence to the "post-American world." [not exactly] [he argued that post-American world was a world in which the US participated more broadly in multilateral ways] [that’s only decline if one assume American unilateralism is desirable] [***] Obama, it should be said, has done little to deserve the praise of these declinists. His view of America's future, at least as expressed in this campaign, has been appropriately optimistic, which is why he is doing well in the polls. If he sounded anything like Zakaria and Fukuyama say he does, he'd be out of business by now.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102903202.html
Still No. 1
By Robert Kagan
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A23 [oped] [columnist] [America’s decline] [I remember the same fears back in late 1980s-early 1990s] [Henry Lau refuted the Kennedy argument and other decline-of-empire ones] [this time is more substantial test] [****]
Is Barack Obama the candidate of American decline? To hear some of his supporters among the foreign policy punditry, you'd think he was. Francis Fukuyama says he supports Obama because he believes Obama would be better at "managing" American decline [***] than John McCain. Fareed Zakaria writes weekly encomiums to Obama's "realism," by which he means Obama's acquiescence to the "post-American world." [not exactly] [he argued that post-American world was a world in which the US participated more broadly in multilateral ways] [that’s only decline if one assume American unilateralism is desirable] [***] Obama, it should be said, has done little to deserve the praise of these declinists. His view of America's future, at least as expressed in this campaign, has been appropriately optimistic, which is why he is doing well in the polls. If he sounded anything like Zakaria and Fukuyama say he does, he'd be out of business by now.

One hopes that whoever wins next week will quickly dismiss all this faddish declinism. It seems to come along every 10 years or so. [***]In the late 1970s, the foreign policy establishment was seized with what Cyrus Vance called "the limits of our power." [does Kagan believe America’s power is limitless?] [bizarre] [***] In the late 1980s, the scholar Paul Kennedy predicted the imminent collapse of American power due to "imperial overstretch." In the late 1990s, Samuel P. Huntington warned of American isolation as the "lonely superpower." Now we have the "post-American world."

Yet the evidence of American decline is weak. Yes, as Zakaria notes, the world's largest Ferris wheel is in Singapore and the largest casino in Macau. But by more serious measures of power, the United States is not in decline, not even relative to other powers. [strikes me as a straw-man argument set up for the times] [to affect a small number of intellectuals and knee-jerk policy wonks] [***] Its share of the global economy last year was about 21 percent, compared with about 23 percent in 1990, 22 percent in 1980 and 24 percent in 1960. Although the United States is suffering through a financial crisis, so is every other major economy. If the past is any guide, the adaptable American economy will be the first to come out of recession and may actually find its position in the global economy enhanced. [Dr. Kagan, Henry Lau beet you to this argument by 15-16 years] [*****]

Meanwhile, American military power is unmatched. While the Chinese and Russian militaries are both growing, America's is growing, too, and continues to outpace them technologically. Russian and Chinese power is growing relative to their neighbors and their regions, which will pose strategic problems, but that is because American allies, especially in Europe, have systematically neglected their defenses.

America's image is certainly damaged, as measured by global polls, but the practical effects of this are far from clear. [***] Is America's image today worse than it was in the 1960s and early 1970s, with the Vietnam War; the Watts riots; the My Lai massacre; the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy; and Watergate? Does anyone recall that millions of anti-American protesters took to the streets in Europe in those years?

Today, despite the polls, President Bush has managed to restore closer relations with allies in Europe and Asia, and the next president will be able to improve them even further. [***] Realist theorists have consistently predicted for the past two decades that the world would "balance" against the United States. But nations such as India are drawing closer to America, and if any balancing is occurring, it is against China, Russia and Iran. [cleverly manages to attract his fellow neconservatives with the Russia red meat and throws in China as everybody worries about China a little] [jingoism: Chinese hordes] [***]

Sober analysts such as Richard Haass acknowledge that the United States remains "the single most powerful entity in the world." [***] But he warns, "The United States cannot dominate, much less dictate, and expect that others will follow." That is true. But when was it not? Was there ever a time when the United States could dominate, dictate and always have its way? [no, but Bush certainly tried] [and that is all anybody I know is talking about] [Kagan’s crowd provided intellectual cover for US unilateralism and now when we are paying a price Kagan attempts to blame others] [***]

Many declinists imagine a mythical past when the world danced to America's tune. Nostalgia swells for the wondrous American-dominated era after World War II, but between 1945 and 1965 the United States actually suffered one calamity after another. The "loss" of China to communism; the North Korean invasion of South Korea; the Soviet testing of a hydrogen bomb; the stirrings of postcolonial nationalism in Indochina -- each proved a strategic setback of the first order. And each was beyond America's power to control or even to manage successfully. [****] [what exactly is his point?]

No event in the past decade, with the exception of Sept. 11, can match the scale of damage to America's position in the world. Many would say, "But what about Iraq?" Yet even in the Middle East, where America's image has suffered most as a result of that war, there has been no fundamental strategic realignment. Longtime American allies remain allies, and Iraq, which was once an adversary, is now an ally. [***]Contrast this with the strategic setbacks the United States suffered during the Cold War. In the 1950s and 1960s, the pan-Arab nationalist movement swept out pro-American governments and opened the door to unprecedented Soviet involvement, including a quasi-alliance between Moscow and the Egypt of Gamal Abdel Nasser, as well as with Syria. In 1979, the central pillar of American strategy toppled when the pro-American Shah of Iran was overthrown by Ayatollah Khomeini's revolution. That produced a fundamental shift in the strategic balance from which the United States is still suffering. Nothing similar has occurred as a result of the Iraq war. [I guess his point is to make an apology for the Bush years by linking it to the beginning of the CW] [and I frankly agree with the aspect of the argument that 9/11 represented a important turning point] [[******]

So perhaps a little perspective is in order. The danger of today's declinism is not that it is true but that the next president will act as if it is. The good news is that I doubt either nominee really will. And I'm confident the American people would take a dim view if he tried. [preparing the battle field] [he suspects a wave of criticism is headed his way and properly concerned] [****]
Robert Kagan, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, writes a monthly column for The Post.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Numbers Game

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/opinion/30thu2.html
October 30, 2008
Editorial
Numbers Game
[editorial] [the state of America’s flagging educational system] [*****]
Americans should be deeply alarmed by new data showing that the country is continuing to lose ground educationally to its competitors abroad. [****]

The United States once had the world’s top high-school graduation rate. It has now fallen to 13th place behind countries like South Korea, the Czech Republic and Slovenia. Worse still, a new study from the Education Trust, a nonpartisan foundation, finds that this is the only country in the industrial world where young people are less likely than their parents to graduate high school. [incredible] [I had no idea it was so bad] [***]

Most American parents never see these damning international comparisons, which are based on census figures and labor force statistics. Instead, parents who want to know how their schools are doing in terms of vital statistics like graduation rates must rely on phony calculations cooked up by state governments that are determined to hide the truth for as long as possible.

With these problems clearly in mind, Margaret Spellings, the secretary of education, has issued new regulations for how school graduation rates are calculated and reported to the public under the No Child Left Behind Act. States will now be required to keep track of students from when they enter high school until they receive regular diplomas, [***] counting as non-graduates any students who choose to leave school before that time.

Until now, the states have been able to calculate graduation rates any way they chose. For many states, that meant writing off students who leave school early and reporting a clearly bogus graduation rate based only on the number of students who began the senior year. Other states have tried to dress up abysmal rates by counting as graduates dropouts who later received G.E.D.’s.

Under the new counting rules, the states will be required to set clear goals for improving graduation rates and to demonstrate “continuous and substantial improvement” toward those goals.

For the first time, the states will also be required to report graduation rates by race to ensure that black and Latino students, who have significantly higher dropout rates than whites, get the special attention they clearly need. And instead of concealing graduation statistics — as many states have done up to now — state governments will be required to report them both to the federal government and the general public.

For too long the states have been allowed to talk a good game while piling up phony statistics and doing little to improve their schools. Our children and the country are paying the price. [****]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102903545.html
Can One Party Rule?
Neither Democrats nor Republicans have a monopoly on policy wisdom.
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A22 [editorial] [what about one-party rule?] [it was the one thing in Frum’s op-ed piece last week that caught my attention and concern] [****]
OUR OLD-FASHIONED inclination would be to wait for the election before discussing its results. But since Republican presidential nominee John McCain has introduced the specter of Democratic control as an argument in his favor, it seems reasonable to examine the case. Should voters choose Mr. McCain over Democrat Barack Obama so as not to empower the Obama-Reid-Pelosi triumvirate that Mr. McCain paints in such ominous shades? Alternatively, as some down-ballot Republicans are urging, should voters stick with GOP senators or members of Congress to keep a President Obama in check?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/opinion/30thu2.html
October 30, 2008
Editorial
Numbers Game
[editorial] [the state of America’s flagging educational system] [*****]
Americans should be deeply alarmed by new data showing that the country is continuing to lose ground educationally to its competitors abroad. [****]

The United States once had the world’s top high-school graduation rate. It has now fallen to 13th place behind countries like South Korea, the Czech Republic and Slovenia. Worse still, a new study from the Education Trust, a nonpartisan foundation, finds that this is the only country in the industrial world where young people are less likely than their parents to graduate high school. [incredible] [I had no idea it was so bad] [***]

Most American parents never see these damning international comparisons, which are based on census figures and labor force statistics. Instead, parents who want to know how their schools are doing in terms of vital statistics like graduation rates must rely on phony calculations cooked up by state governments that are determined to hide the truth for as long as possible.

With these problems clearly in mind, Margaret Spellings, the secretary of education, has issued new regulations for how school graduation rates are calculated and reported to the public under the No Child Left Behind Act. States will now be required to keep track of students from when they enter high school until they receive regular diplomas, [***] counting as non-graduates any students who choose to leave school before that time.

Until now, the states have been able to calculate graduation rates any way they chose. For many states, that meant writing off students who leave school early and reporting a clearly bogus graduation rate based only on the number of students who began the senior year. Other states have tried to dress up abysmal rates by counting as graduates dropouts who later received G.E.D.’s.

Under the new counting rules, the states will be required to set clear goals for improving graduation rates and to demonstrate “continuous and substantial improvement” toward those goals.

For the first time, the states will also be required to report graduation rates by race to ensure that black and Latino students, who have significantly higher dropout rates than whites, get the special attention they clearly need. And instead of concealing graduation statistics — as many states have done up to now — state governments will be required to report them both to the federal government and the general public.

For too long the states have been allowed to talk a good game while piling up phony statistics and doing little to improve their schools. Our children and the country are paying the price. [****]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102903545.html
Can One Party Rule?
Neither Democrats nor Republicans have a monopoly on policy wisdom.
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A22 [editorial] [what about one-party rule?] [it was the one thing in Frum’s op-ed piece last week that caught my attention and concern] [****]
OUR OLD-FASHIONED inclination would be to wait for the election before discussing its results. But since Republican presidential nominee John McCain has introduced the specter of Democratic control as an argument in his favor, it seems reasonable to examine the case. Should voters choose Mr. McCain over Democrat Barack Obama so as not to empower the Obama-Reid-Pelosi triumvirate that Mr. McCain paints in such ominous shades? Alternatively, as some down-ballot Republicans are urging, should voters stick with GOP senators or members of Congress to keep a President Obama in check?

For true partisans of either stripe, there's no quandary here. Most true-blue Democrats would be delighted to see their party in charge of both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, though some worry that subsequent overreaching might harm the party in the long run. Most true-red Republicans have mirror-image feelings. [***] So the question is most pertinent for centrists and independent voters, who tend to have contradictory emotions. On the one hand, they bemoan gridlock in Washington and would like government finally to come up with answers on some big issues such as health care and energy. On the other hand, they worry about what those answers would be if formulated by one party alone. [****]

We worry, too, though we support Mr. Obama even knowing the result may be one-party rule. A political theorist might root for the Democrats to win the White House, a 60-vote majority in the Senate and a clear majority in the House. Then voters could find out what the Democrats really stand for and render a thumbs-up or thumbs-down in two and four years -- just as they passed judgment in 2006 on the one-party rule (though short of 60-vote control in the Senate) of Tom DeLay, Ted Stevens and George W. Bush.

But we don't believe either party has a monopoly on policy wisdom. We liked Mr. Bush's insistence on accountability in education, tempered by Sen. Edward M. Kennedy's reminder that you couldn't fix urban schools without some money. We don't support the Democrats' plan to allow unionization without secret ballots, but we agree with them that National Labor Relations Board rules have tipped too far toward management. And so on. We like to think, in other words, that a process in which both parties play a role can sometimes lead to better outcomes and not always to dead ends. [****]

That's harder to imagine, though, as each party's moderate wing shrinks. A Democratic sweep might bring to Washington some relatively centrist freshmen who would provide a check on the most liberal wing of the party. But it might claim as victims some of the few remaining Republican moderates, such as Sen. Gordon Smith of Oregon and Rep. Christopher Shays of Connecticut, and some of the real workhorses who are more interested in legislating than grandstanding -- the capable New Hampshire senator John E. Sununu, for example. The defeat of such politicians would be a loss for the country, not just for their party.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Sarkozy Boldly Attacks Financial Crisis, but Europe Wants Results

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/europe/30france.html
October 30, 2008
Memo From Paris
Sarkozy Boldly Attacks Financial Crisis, but Europe Wants Results
By STEVEN ERLANGER [France] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [globalization removes degrees of freedom from sovereign governments] [use ir text] [*****]
PARIS — The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, is running as fast as he can, but the European recession is gathering pace. After initially good reviews for his leadership and quick response to the crisis, even Mr. Sarkozy’s vaunted hyperactivity is starting to seem a little counterproductive, especially among his allies.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/europe/30france.html
October 30, 2008
Memo From Paris
Sarkozy Boldly Attacks Financial Crisis, but Europe Wants Results
By STEVEN ERLANGER [France] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [globalization removes degrees of freedom from sovereign governments] [use ir text] [*****]
PARIS — The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, is running as fast as he can, but the European recession is gathering pace. After initially good reviews for his leadership and quick response to the crisis, even Mr. Sarkozy’s vaunted hyperactivity is starting to seem a little counterproductive, especially among his allies.

He is seen as something of a magician, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to find meaningful rabbits to pull out of a more tattered hat. [***]

He tried again on Tuesday, faced with major layoffs from French companies like Renault, a quarterly decline of more than 23 percent in building permit applications and a sharp drop in consumer confidence, as measured by the government, to one of the lowest levels in 20 years. The signs of economic caution are everywhere here, including even a sudden drop in the sale of bottled water. [***]

Trying to counteract fears of higher unemployment as the economy slows, Mr. Sarkozy announced a new program of subsidized work contracts, warned companies not to make unjustified layoffs and promised to loosen restrictions on short-term job contracts and Sunday work. [***]

The Socialist he beat for the presidency, Ségolène Royal, said Tuesday that “with a new plan practically every two days,” Mr. Sarkozy had “a credibility problem.” At the very least, she said, “we must pay attention that each plan announced should start before announcing the next.” [good politics] [not helpful to France or others integrated in globalized economy] [if the socialists want to return to power, they need to offer solutions that are better than Sarkozy’s] [*****]

But the problem runs deeper. Mr. Sarkozy is trying to promote a stronger economic role for the leaders of European Union states that use the euro, including a more powerful role for himself, in order to put pressure on the European Central Bank and the European Commission, which largely control the euro-zone economy.

But other major states, especially Germany, are skeptical about his intentions. They believe that Mr. Sarkozy, who has often excoriated the Central Bank for its focus on limiting inflation, wants to sharply increase the size of France’s budget deficit — despite European Union restrictions — to stimulate an economy considered to be in recession and to create jobs. [****]

At the beginning of the American subprime mortgage crisis, Mr. Sarkozy, with France as the current six-month president of the European Union, got good marks for taking action. He called summit meetings, rushed to Washington, made proposals and even pulled the British prime minister, Gordon Brown, whose country does not use the euro, into an extraordinary summit meeting of the leaders of the states using the euro — the so-called Eurogroup. [***]In large part, the activity was intended to calm Europeans looking for leadership in a confusing time.

But they are also going to look for results, said Katinka Barysch, an economist and the deputy director of the Center for European Reform in London. “For Sarkozy, it’s a tricky strategy,” she said. “In a situation where confidence is in such short supply, having a politician leave the impression he’s in charge and can do things can be good. But if like Sarkozy, you convene one summit after another and present one idea after another, you raise expectations you can’t fulfill.”

Recent pronouncements by Mr. Sarkozy have rubbed the Germans and the British the wrong way, in part because he has reverted to an old habit of acting without consulting his allies. [****]

Quite unusually for Europe, Mr. Sarkozy has also called other leaders to summit meetings on extremely short notice, sometimes just a day, a senior European diplomat said, causing consternation and confusion. [****]

Mr. Sarkozy’s relations with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, have deteriorated again, diplomats and French officials say, over both his lack of consultation and his efforts to pressure the European Central Bank. [***]

In particular, Mr. Sarkozy has called for two European initiatives that have been widely criticized. The first is a European Union sovereign fund to protect the ownership of important business with suddenly low stock prices. The other is a “unified economic government” of the European Union that would bring the heads of state together on economic issues, and not just the finance ministers.

Mr. Sarkozy argues that leaders must lead, and that with the Czech Republic and then Sweden, neither of which uses the euro, taking over the European Union presidency in 2009, Europe’s ability to deal with the global financial crisis will be reduced. [**]

He wants a new dialogue between country leaders and the European Parliament, suggests Daniel Cohen, a professor of economics at the École Normale Supérieure, as a way of undermining the European Commission. Mr. Sarkozy would also like to lead the Eurogroup for that period, instead of Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, Mr. Cohen said.

“There is a need to think and talk at the level of Europe, because there will be hard times coming,” Mr. Cohen said. “The ability of France to fight recession will be contingent on the size of its fiscal deficit,” which is already at the European limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product.

Mr. Sarkozy — and not him alone — wants the European Commission to relax the rules because of the recession, and that will produce “a debate in difficult circumstances” between France and Germany, [***]which supports the limits and does not want to see European institutions undermined.

Mr. Sarkozy has worked politically without any real ideology in this crisis, promising safety to the French, appealing to nationalist instincts and trying to play an important role in Europe, and he has helped himself in the polls, said Pierre Rousselin, the foreign editor of Le Figaro.

“Sarkozy is a bit a magician without clothes, but the important thing is the perception, and he’s doing pretty well,” Mr. Rousselin said. “The time will come when people ask, ‘Where’s the beef?’ But I’m not sure we’ve reached that point yet. To energize Europe itself is a pretty good thing.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Congo City Is Calmer After Night of Violence

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/world/africa/31congo.html
October 31, 2008
Congo City Is Calmer After Night of Violence
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN [Congo] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved] [is the Hutu-Tutsi blood bath flowing into Congo?] [******]
GOMA, Congo — At dawn on Thursday, the United Nations trucks began to move. A convoy of desperately needed supplies was finally entering this besieged town. [***]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/world/africa/31congo.html
October 31, 2008
Congo City Is Calmer After Night of Violence
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN [Congo] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved] [is the Hutu-Tutsi blood bath flowing into Congo?] [******]
GOMA, Congo — At dawn on Thursday, the United Nations trucks began to move. A convoy of desperately needed supplies was finally entering this besieged town. [***]

The rattle of gunfire was remarkably absent for the first time in days. United Nations peacekeepers were patrolling the streets.

The crisis seemed to be easing.

The rebels who have encircled this strategic town in eastern Congo, casting this region into a vortex of violence and uncertainty once again, seemed to be respecting the unilateral truce they declared on Wednesday [***]night.

“Today there has been no fighting,” said Lt. Col. Samba Tall, a commander for the United Nations peacekeepers in Congo. “All belligerents are abiding by the cease-fire.”

Government soldiers who had fled the advancing rebels on Wednesday night, trudged back into town, with guns slung over their shoulders and sleeping rolls balanced on their heads. They looked exhausted. But they talked tough.

“We’re in control now,” said one of the Congolese soldiers, Col. Jonas Padiri.

Perhaps. But few people here trust them. On Wednesday night, in the security vacuum that opened up with the rebels marching toward town and the Congolese army fleeing in droves, rogue government soldiers turned on the people of Goma. The blood-soaked results were literally on display Thursday morning. [****]

The body of a 17-year-old boy named Merci lay on a mattress, his hands folded carefully in front of him, his nostrils plugged with cotton.

His relatives said that a gang of uniformed government soldiers burst into Merci’s house at 10 p.m. on Wednesday and ordered Merci at gunpoint to load all the things in the house — rice, clothes, pots, pans, blankets — into the soldiers’ truck. After he complied, the soldiers shot him in the back.

Next door, two dead women, also victimized by rogue soldiers, according to residents, lay in a room packed with people. The whole neighborhood was pressed around the bodies. Nobody had any answers.

“They didn’t resist,” said Alan Bulondo, a relative. “They gave up their money. There was no point.”

Congolese soldiers are infamous for training their guns on civilians and fleeing at the first sign of a real threat. The looting, pillaging, raping and killing seems to happen every time a city switches hands.

United Nations officials said they were negotiating intensely on Thursday with government commanders and the rebels’ leader, Laurent Nkunda, to solidify the cease-fire. On Wednesday, Mr. Nkunda had declared the cease-fire, saying he did not want to spread more fear in Goma.

Mr. Nkunda, a renegade Congolese general, has said he is waging war to protect the Tutsi people. Congolese officials accuse him of being a front man for neighboring Rwanda, [***]which is led by Tutsi, and say that Mr. Nkunda is trying to carve out a buffer zone between Congo and Rwanda. Rwandan officials deny this and on Thursday there were high level talks between the two countries.

One of the biggest concerns now is the hundreds of thousands of people who have been displaced by all the fighting. Many of them are sleeping in the rain, with no food and gravely ill children. So far, aid workers have been unable to reach them.

But on Thursday, for the first time in more than a week, the fighting in the hills around here stopped and aid officials were hopeful they could resume operations soon.

“Things are still volatile,” said Ivo Brandau, a United Nations spokesman in Kinshasa, Congo’s capital, in the west of the country. “But it’s calmer today than it has been. The situation is improving.”

Goma is an important staging ground for United Nations aid efforts in the region that are keeping millions alive. The United Nations also has its largest peacekeeping mission in Congo, with 17,000 troops with tanks and helicopter gunships. [***]But United Nations officials have said it is not necessarily their job to repel the rebels.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Embers of Rwandan Genocide Flare

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102902928.html
Embers of Rwandan Genocide Flare
Congo Faces Threat of War as Rebels Advance, Soldiers Leave Posts and Villagers Flee
By Stephanie McCrummen
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A01 [Congo] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved] [is the Hutu-Tutsi blood bath flowing into Congo?] [******]
GOMA, Congo, Oct. 29 -- An escalation of Congo's long-simmering conflict reached the gates of this provincial capital Wednesday as a rebel offensive sent tens of thousands of villagers fleeing toward the city and government soldiers left their posts.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102902928.html
Embers of Rwandan Genocide Flare
Congo Faces Threat of War as Rebels Advance, Soldiers Leave Posts and Villagers Flee
By Stephanie McCrummen
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A01 [Congo] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved] [is the Hutu-Tutsi blood bath flowing into Congo?] [******]
GOMA, Congo, Oct. 29 -- An escalation of Congo's long-simmering conflict reached the gates of this provincial capital Wednesday as a rebel offensive sent tens of thousands of villagers fleeing toward the city and government soldiers left their posts.

All afternoon, columns of frantic people fled the front lines on wooden bikes piled with clothes and sacks of flour or on foot, balancing sons and daughters, mattresses and suitcases.

Over the past decade, two civil wars and fighting among militia groups have left millions dead in strife rooted in the unresolved aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide. On Wednesday, the tensions threatened to flare into yet another war, despite the presence of 17,000 [***]U.N. peacekeepers in the region.

Rebel leader Laurent Nkunda, a cultish figure who has the sympathy of neighboring Rwanda, has said he is fighting to protect the region's minority ethnic Tutsis from Hutu militias that fled to eastern Congo after the genocide. He recently expanded his ambitions, however, saying he wished to "liberate" all of Congo. [***]As his forces approached the city Wednesday, Congolese military commanders abandoned their troops, escaping to nearby villages, melting into the city or leaving by boat across sprawling Lake Kivu. [***]

"The army has lost the war, so a new situation has arisen," said European Union envoy Roland Van de Geer. "We will have to see what is happening now. The army is beaten, and I don't think we can expect [peacekeepers] to solve the problems."

Nkunda agreed to a "unilateral cease-fire" and told U.N. officials that his forces would not enter this city of 600,000 people to avoid further panic.

"We can't emphasize how desperate the situation is on the ground right now," said U.N. spokeswoman Marie Okabe.

Among those fleeing toward Goma were more than 45,000 displaced people from a camp in the area, Okabe said. Another 1,000 civilians went to neighboring Uganda during the past 24 hours, [***]and hundreds more were preparing to make the journey to escape fighting.

"I ran during the first war. I ran when the volcano erupted. I ran last month, and this is the fourth time I'm running," said a man hurrying down a road crowded with thousands headed to uncertain safety in Goma.

U.N. officials said that their force was stretched beyond its limits and that it needed help from a heavily armed multinational force to ensure the safety of Congolese civilians.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner told reporters in Paris that the E.U. has the capacity to deploy up to 1,500 troops within 10 days. But the proposal met initial resistance from other European governments, and a spokeswoman for the bloc's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, said that "no intervention of a military nature by the European Union has been discussed," [****]Agence France-Presse reported.

The rebel advance followed a chaotic day that began with the Rwandan army firing tank rounds into eastern Congo, sharply escalating tensions between the two nations. The fighting sent tens of thousands of people running from the hills toward Goma, where many had no plan other than to sleep in the streets, mud or grass.

“I ran away and left my child,” cried Justin Furaha, looking back toward the hills where her 1-year-old daughter, Landerin, remained. “I left my child.”

The fractious Congolese army joined the exodus, with soldiers abandoning the front lines in heavy tanks, on the backs of motorbikes, on foot and heaped high in trucks.

“The rebels and the Rwandans are attacking us so strongly,” said Michel Kabumba, a Congolese soldier in full retreat along a gravel road. “All of us, we are returning. We have fought a lot, and we are tired. And this month, we have not gotten paid.” [***]

The military retreat left the region's defense almost completely to the U.N. peacekeeping force, made up of Indians and Uruguayans. The United Nations apparently decided not to engage Nkunda's forces and began evacuating its civilian staff from here Wednesday afternoon.

U.N. officials in New York said Wednesday that peacekeepers would fight to defend Goma if Nkunda decided to enter it. The officials also said that they were concerned about the Rwandan army entering Goma and that peacekeepers would not fight Rwanda under such a scenario.

As U.N. peacekeepers, a force known by the acronym MONUC, drove through the streets in white trucks and tanks, young men hurled heavy stones at them, as they have all week.

"MONUC is running away! They are selling out our country and leaving us alone!" one young man shouted at the passing convoys, expressing a widespread frustration that peacekeepers have failed to protect civilians.

Van de Geer said that discussions were underway between the Congolese government, Nkunda and the United Nations.

"We think it is very important that the peace process is restarted again," he said, referring to a deal signed this year that fell apart when Nkunda began his offensive in August. "But we will have to reckon with new realities."

Rwandan officials again denied accusations that their soldiers had set foot in Congo, saying their troops were fired on from the Congolese side.

"It was provocation," said Rwanda's special envoy to Congo, Joseph Mutaboba. "This was just to incite us to strike back. Now we have to wait and see."

But Congolese soldiers and others fleeing the combat zone Wednesday said they saw Rwandan troops crossing into Congolese territory to help the advancing rebels led by Nkunda.

The Hutu militias are led by a core group that fled into the forests of eastern Congo after the genocide. Nkunda, an ethnic Tutsi, and Rwanda want the Congolese government to follow through with numerous agreements to disarm them. But instead of disarming the Hutu militias, the Congolese army has been fighting alongside them, sharing supplies and weapons in what Rwandan officials say has become "systematic" collaboration since August, when the fighting began despite the peace deal signed in January. [***]

Even in that context, Nkunda's rebels, large numbers of whom are ethnic Tutsis, are highly unpopular. [***]The conflict between Hutus and Tutsis in Rwanda has existed to varying degrees for decades in eastern Congo, where ethnic Congolese Tutsis are often viewed as outsiders. Nkunda's rebels are widely viewed here as a thinly veiled proxy for Rwanda, whom people suspect of wanting to grab this mineral-rich territory. [****]

On the streets of Goma on Wednesday, anti-Tutsi sentiment ran high among the crowds anticipating a possible rebel attack.

"If the rebels come here, we will kill them," said Maurice Heritien, a taxi driver standing outside a shuttered shop. "We will kill Tutsi people."
Staff writer Colum Lynch at the United Nations contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Peru: Demonstrations Flare in Provinces

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/americas/30briefs-DEMONSTRATIO_BRF.html
October 30, 2008
World Briefing | The Americas
Peru: Demonstrations Flare in Provinces
By REUTERS [Peru] [accused venezeula’s chavez and his goons of interference with Peru’s election back in spring 2006] [I don’t know if it’s true but it wouldn’t surprise me] [chavez is an a hole] [unfortunately, the bush admin had got themselves locked into a game with chavez that they can’t win] [frankly, chavez doesn’t matter] [he will self immolate] [best tactic: get out of his way and let him destroy himself] [Peru in a tough spot in the interim however] [use ir text] [Presidente Garcia began his career as a leftist then found religion in capitalism] [now he’s in a pickle] [******]
Thousands of people demonstrated in five provinces on Wednesday, threatening politicians in one, setting a police station on fire in another and demanding a larger share of the taxes generated by local mines in several others. [***]During the unrest,

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/americas/30briefs-DEMONSTRATIO_BRF.html
October 30, 2008
World Briefing | The Americas
Peru: Demonstrations Flare in Provinces
By REUTERS [Peru] [accused venezeula’s chavez and his goons of interference with Peru’s election back in spring 2006] [I don’t know if it’s true but it wouldn’t surprise me] [chavez is an a hole] [unfortunately, the bush admin had got themselves locked into a game with chavez that they can’t win] [frankly, chavez doesn’t matter] [he will self immolate] [best tactic: get out of his way and let him destroy himself] [Peru in a tough spot in the interim however] [use ir text] [Presidente Garcia began his career as a leftist then found religion in capitalism] [now he’s in a pickle] [******]
Thousands of people demonstrated in five provinces on Wednesday, threatening politicians in one, setting a police station on fire in another and demanding a larger share of the taxes generated by local mines in several others. [***]During the unrest, which began earlier this week, dozens of people have been injured in clashes with the police, who have shot tear gas into the crowds at times. Three police officers who had been taken hostage in Moquegua were released on Wednesday. President Alan García overhauled his cabinet this month in an attempt to end a series of political protests this year and to quell a corruption scandal. He also hoped to lift his popularity rating, which hovered around 20 percent, according to recent surveys.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Colombia Lists Civilian Killings in Guerrilla Toll

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/americas/30colombia.html
October 30, 2008
Colombia Lists Civilian Killings in Guerrilla Toll
By SIMON ROMERO [Colombia] [SAmerica] [Latin America] [everybody has speculated on al Qaeda’s and others’ dabblings in drug money] [FARC has taken body blow after body blow] [possibly signs of eventual way out?] [*****]
SOACHA, Colombia — Julián Oviedo, a 19-year-old construction worker in this gritty patchwork of slums, told his mother on March 2 that he was going to talk to a man about a job offer. A day later, Mr. Oviedo was shot dead by army troops some 350 miles to the north. He was classified as a subversive and registered as a combat kill.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/americas/30colombia.html
October 30, 2008
Colombia Lists Civilian Killings in Guerrilla Toll
By SIMON ROMERO [Colombia] [SAmerica] [Latin America] [everybody has speculated on al Qaeda’s and others’ dabblings in drug money] [FARC has taken body blow after body blow] [possibly signs of eventual way out?] [*****]
SOACHA, Colombia — Julián Oviedo, a 19-year-old construction worker in this gritty patchwork of slums, told his mother on March 2 that he was going to talk to a man about a job offer. A day later, Mr. Oviedo was shot dead by army troops some 350 miles to the north. He was classified as a subversive and registered as a combat kill.

Colombia’s government, the Bush administration’s top ally in Latin America, has been buffeted by the killings of Mr. Oviedo and dozens of other young, impoverished men and women whose cases have come to light in recent weeks. Some were vagrants, others street vendors or manual laborers. But their fates were often the same: being catalogued as insurgents or criminal gang members and killed by the armed forces.

Prosecutors and human rights researchers are investigating hundreds of such deaths and disappearances, contending that Colombia’s security forces are increasingly murdering civilians and making it look as if they were killed in combat, often by planting weapons by the bodies or dressing them in guerrilla fatigues. [****]

With soldiers under intense pressure in recent years to register combat kills to earn promotions and benefits like time off and extra pay, reports of civilian killings are climbing, prosecutors and researchers say, pointing to a facet of Colombia’s long internal war against leftist insurgencies.

The deaths have called into question the depth of recent strides against the rebel Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, and have begun to haunt the military hierarchy.

On Wednesday, President Álvaro Uribe’s government announced that it had fired more than two dozen officers and soldiers — including three generals — in connection with the deaths of Mr. Oviedo and 10 other young men from Soacha, whose bodies were recently discovered in unmarked graves in a distant combat zone. The purge came after an initial shake-up Friday, when the army command relieved three colonels of their duties. [****]

At a news conference on Wednesday, Mr. Uribe said an internal military investigation appeared to have uncovered “crimes that in some regions had the goal of killing innocents, to make it seem as if criminals were being confronted.”

“The armed forces of Colombia have well-earned prestige,” Mr. Uribe said. “When there are violations of human rights, that prestige is muddled.”

Professing his innocence in a telephone interview Wednesday night, Brig. Gen. Paulino Coronado, one of the fired generals, said he lamented the way in which the dismissals were done.

“The impression is as if I were a criminal or a murderer,” he said. “It is believable that there may have been mistakes in controls, but one must look at the means available to command 8,000 men.” [****]

The wave of killings has also heightened focus on the American Embassy here, which is responsible for vetting Colombian military units for human rights abuses before they can receive aid. [****]A study of civilian killings by Amnesty International and Fellowship of Reconciliation, human rights groups, found that 47 percent of the cases reported in 2007 involved Colombian units financed by the United States.

“If the responsibility of the army is to protect us from harm, how could they have killed my son this way?” asked Blanca Monroy, 49, Mr. Oviedo’s mother, in an interview in her cinder-block hovel in Soacha. “The official explanation is absurd, if he was here just a day earlier living a normal life. The irony of it all is that my son dreamed of being a soldier” for the government.

Even before the most recent disappearances and killings, prosecutors and human rights groups were examining a steady increase in the reports of civilian killings since 2002, when commanders intensified a counterinsurgency financed in no small part by more than $500 million a year in American aid.

But more than 100 claims of civilian deaths at the hands of security forces have emerged in recent weeks from nine areas of Colombia. Cases include a homeless man, a young man with epilepsy and a veteran who had left the army after his left arm was amputated.

In some cases, victims’ families spoke of middlemen who recruited their loved ones and other poor men and women with vague promises of jobs elsewhere, only to deliver them hours or days later to war zones where they were shot dead by soldiers.

“We are witnessing a method of social cleansing in which rogue military units operate beyond the law,” said Mónica Sánchez, a lawyer at the Judicial Freedom Corporation, a human rights group in Medellín.

It says it has documented more than 60 “false positives” — the chilling term for cases of civilians who are killed and then presented as guerrillas, with weapons or fatigues [***]— in Antioquia Department, or province.

Researchers have also obtained thorough descriptions of some killings in the small number of cases — fewer than 50 — that have resulted in convictions this decade.

One April morning in 2004, for instance, soldiers approached the home of Juan de Jesús Rendón, 33, a peasant farmer in Antioquia, and shot him in front of his son, Juan Estéban, who was then 10.

The soldiers placed a two-way radio and a gun near Mr. Rendón’s body, court records show, and told his son that his siblings would suffer the same fate unless he said his father had fired at the soldiers.

Vilma García, 35, Mr. Rendón’s wife, said, “I still fear this can happen again.” The five soldiers involved were recently convicted of homicide, and of torture in connection with the threats to her son.

“The soldiers think we are poor and worthless,” she said in an interview in Medellín, where she and her children fled, “so nobody will care how we are killed.”

The killings have increasingly opened the United States to criticism because it is required to make sure Colombian military units have not violated human rights before giving them aid.

“If we are receiving aid and vetting from a government in Washington that validates torture, then what kind of results can one expect?” asked Liliana Uribe, a lawyer in Medellín who represents victims’ families.

A senior official at the American Embassy in Bogotá, the capital, said the reports of civilian killings, in past years and in recent months, were of concern.

“If the facts in some cases do show that parts of the armed forces were taking part in murder, that’s wrong, and there should be mechanisms to prevent this from happening and mechanisms to ensure that perpetrators are brought to justice,” [***]said the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

The official said the units involved in the most recent killings, of the 11 men from Soacha, did not get aid because they had previously been deemed not credible to receive it.

But the official neither confirmed nor denied the contention that almost half of the reports of civilian killings in 2007 involved units that received American aid. The official said a case-by-case review of the episodes had not been carried out by two American contractors hired by the State Department to help vet the military units for abuses.

Reports of civilian killings rose to 287 from mid-2006 to mid-2007, up from 267 in the same period a year earlier and 218 the year before that, said the Colombian Commission of Jurists, a Bogotá human rights group.

Altogether, the attorney general’s office said it was investigating the killings of 1,015 civilians by security forces in 558 episodes unrelated to combat. Prosecutors said the number of new cases under investigation rose to 245 in 2007 from 122 in 2006.

The increase in reported civilian killings spurred the Defense Ministry to issue a directive last year making it a priority to capture rebels rather than kill them. In an interview, Gen. Freddy Padilla de León, the top commander of the armed forces, said the policy shift, while largely intended to prevent human rights abuses, also had strategic objectives.

“A terrorist captured alive is a treasure, while a dead terrorist is just one-day news,” [**] General Padilla said, citing the example of Nelly Ávila Moreno, a FARC commander who surrendered this year and began collaborating with her captors. “A terrorist converted into an informant is useful as long as he or she lives,” the general said.

Until the latest wave of killings, it appeared that the new policy was starting to work. The Center for Research and Popular Education, a Jesuit-led group in Bogotá that maintains a database on human rights violations, documented 87 reports of so-called false positives in the second half of 2007, a 34 percent drop from the first six months of that year.

But the emergence of cases in Soacha and elsewhere suggests that the problem may be more systemic than once thought.

Some human rights researchers contend that the killings are tolerated by some senior officers in the Colombian Army who chafe at greater scrutiny when security forces have made big gains against guerrillas, including the killing or capture of several top FARC commanders.

One case involves the commander of Colombia’s Army, Gen. Mario Montoya. In March 2002, the army’s Fourth Brigade, then under his command, killed five people in their vehicle and presented them as guerrillas, their bodies dressed in fatigues.

But the driver, Parmenio de Jesús Usme, testified this year that none were guerrillas. According to a report by Cambio, a news magazine, Mr. Usme, a former member of a paramilitary group that opposed the guerrillas, said that two of the victims were teenagers, Érika Castañeda, 13, and Johana Carmona, 14, and that he had been driving them to a party when they picked up three other people.

Mr. Usme said that they were fired upon and that everyone in the vehicle was killed but him. According to the report, General Montoya called the hospital where the bodies were taken and said that they should be turned over only to someone in his confidence, after which the bodies were presented to the media in fatigues at a nearby building.

When asked specifically about the case, General Padilla, the armed forces commander, said, “There are preliminary investigations in which the different declarations are being verified.”
Jenny Carolina González contributed reporting from Bogotá, Colombia.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Ukraine Reaches for I.M.F. Rescue Loan

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/europe/30ukraine.html
October 30, 2008
Ukraine Reaches for I.M.F. Rescue Loan
By SABRINA TAVERNISE [Ukraine] [former USSR] [followup] [Yushenko who tilts West has fallen on hard times] [it appears some of his trouble are of his own doing] [but his opposition which leans toward Russia has been after his head since the “Orange” revolution of 2004] [now collapsed] [followup] [none of this bodes particularly well for Ukraine] [Ukraine on the brink and this will test whether the 3 principals in Ukraine’s political dynasty can work together in the face of global economic meltdown?] [is the IMF becoming relevant again?] [*****]
KIEV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s Parliament put aside weeks of political infighting on Wednesday to give initial approval for legislation that would secure an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund to help ease the country’s ailing finances.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/europe/30ukraine.html
October 30, 2008
Ukraine Reaches for I.M.F. Rescue Loan
By SABRINA TAVERNISE [Ukraine] [former USSR] [followup] [Yushenko who tilts West has fallen on hard times] [it appears some of his trouble are of his own doing] [but his opposition which leans toward Russia has been after his head since the “Orange” revolution of 2004] [now collapsed] [followup] [none of this bodes particularly well for Ukraine] [Ukraine on the brink and this will test whether the 3 principals in Ukraine’s political dynasty can work together in the face of global economic meltdown?] [is the IMF becoming relevant again?] [*****]
KIEV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s Parliament put aside weeks of political infighting on Wednesday to give initial approval for legislation that would secure an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund to help ease the country’s ailing finances.

The global financial crisis has battered Ukraine, and the country badly needs the $16.5 billion loan that was promised by the fund last week. But the money was offered on the condition that Ukraine take steps to tighten its budget.

Lawmakers agreed in a vote of 248 to 2 to pass those measures. [***]Two more votes are required for final approval, and while the package is expected to pass, a deepening political crisis raised broader questions about Ukraine’s stability.

“We are giving a signal to the U.S. government and the I.M.F. that the government, president and most of the Parliament intend to deal with the economy,” said Ivan Kirilenko, a deputy in Parliament.

But the market seemed skeptical. Ukraine’s currency, the hryvnia, lost about 14 percent of its value on Wednesday alone, and the cost to insure Ukrainian government debt has spiked, up sixfold since September.

“Until Ukraine can develop and communicate a reasonable anti-crisis plan to the markets, the hryvnia will be under pressure,” said Arthur McCallum, an analyst at Kazimir Partners in Kiev, a fund manager focused on the states of the former Soviet Union.

The I.M.F.’s representative in Kiev, Balazs Horvath, said, “It is a process that will take a few more days, but progress has been made.”

Earlier this month, President Viktor A. Yushchenko issued a decree dissolving Parliament and the cabinet, and calling for early elections in December. His ultimate aim, his critics say, is to get rid of his prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, a powerful politician and a former ally.

It is a post-Soviet story of grim familiarity. The two stood together leading the mass demonstrations against a rigged election in 2004 that became known as the Orange Revolution. But since then, their relations have deteriorated, with each publicly accusing the other of betraying their past ideals. [****]

The legislation for the loan, meanwhile, had been held hostage to this political struggle, which got physical twice over the past week. On Tuesday, deputies from Ms. Tymoshenko’s party stormed the podium in Parliament trying to prevent a measure on financing the elections to come to a vote.

On Wednesday, several deputies nearly came to blows, shouting and grabbing to stop others from voting for the measure. At one point, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the speaker of Parliament, shouted helplessly, “The head of the Parliament is still in charge!”

The scuffle ended in success for Ms. Tymoshenko’s bloc, which erupted in cheers when the measure went down to defeat — four votes shy of passage. [***]

But the fight is not over yet. Ksenia Lyapina, a deputy from Mr. Yushchenko’s party, Our Ukraine, dismissed the rowdy opposition deputies as “monkeys from the jungle,” and said her party intended to insert the legislation into the package intended for the I.M.F., before the final rounds of voting on Thursday, casting a shadow over the fate of the package once again.

Ms. Tymoshenko, meanwhile, parried attacks from another big political player, the Regions Party, which was staunchly opposed to the financial legislation all along, arguing that its plan to save the country’s finances — which centered on demanding longer term loans from the I.M.F. and increasing social payments — was better. [***]

Ms. Tymoshenko dismissed the plan as “one and a half pages and three points” and chided the party for its leader’s absence from the session. A deputy shot back that he was sick and running a temperature.

Mr. Yushchenko, for his part, continued to press the issue of the election on Wednesday, declaring that the actions of the opposition bloc that Ms. Tymoshenko leads had “destroyed trust and made it impossible for the coalition to exist.”

“I, as the president, won’t take a single step back from a democratic way of resolving that problem,” he said. [****]

But his opponents strongly disagree, saying that his decision to force early elections was simply a classic method of bare-knuckle bullying.

“The president is playing a dark game,” said Volodymyr Polokhalo, a member of Ms. Tymoshenko’s bloc. “This election is political extremism.”

Mr. Yushchenko’s critics say he has an oversize sense of his own power, calling for an election at a time when two Kiev-based polling firms put his popularity at 4 to 5 percent. Mr. Polokhalo uses a line from “The Gambler” by Dostoyevsky to explain it: “Poisoning yourself with your own personal fantasies.”

Sabrina Tavernise reported from Kiev, Ukraine, and Nicholas Kulish from Berlin. Graham Bowley contributed reporting from New York and Andrew Kramer from Moscow.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Maldives: Longtime Leader Is Voted Out

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/asia/30briefs-LONGTIMELEAD_BRF.html
October 30, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
Maldives: Longtime Leader Is Voted Out
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Maldives] [India, islands] [became republic in 1968 after years as sultanate under British and Ducth respectively] [Gayoom has been its president since independence] [not any more] [first time I recall archiving anything on Maldives] [south, south west of India in india ocean] [also Arabic ocean] [*****]
President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who has governed for three decades, promised on Wednesday to ensure a smooth transition after he was defeated by a bitter political rival in the Maldives’ first democratic election. In a rare show of unity, Mohamed Nasheed,

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/asia/30briefs-LONGTIMELEAD_BRF.html
October 30, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
Maldives: Longtime Leader Is Voted Out
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Maldives] [India, islands] [became republic in 1968 after years as sultanate under British and Ducth respectively] [Gayoom has been its president since independence] [not any more] [first time I recall archiving anything on Maldives] [south, south west of India in india ocean] [also Arabic ocean] [*****]
President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who has governed for three decades, promised on Wednesday to ensure a smooth transition after he was defeated by a bitter political rival in the Maldives’ first democratic election. In a rare show of unity, Mohamed Nasheed, the president-elect, joined Mr. Gayoom to address the nation together from the president’s office hours after the results of Tuesday’s runoff election were announced. [***]

The men said they would work together. “A test of our democracy will be how we treat Maumoon,” said Mr. Nasheed, 41, who was a former political prisoner. Mr. Nasheed won 54 percent of the votes while Mr. Gayoom, who had won six previous elections as the only candidate on the ballot, received 46 percent. [***]Democracy took hold in the Maldives after riots in 2003 and fierce international pressure pushed Mr. Gayoom to lift a ban on opposition parties. [****] [funny how that works]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

France Boosts Spending on Military

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102902589.html
France Boosts Spending on Military
Program Reflects Intent to Conduct Activist Policies Worldwide
By Edward Cody
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A18 [France] [EU] [NATO redux] [western media just cannot get enough of Sarkozy] [most pro-US French leader in generations] [I’m not how sure his solidarity with US plays in France] [strengthening NATO ties?] [followup June 18] [****]
PARIS, Oct. 29 -- The French government decided Wednesday to increase military spending by an average of $1.8 billion a year as part of an effort to field a trimmer but better-equipped army to safeguard France's role in world affairs. [consider the US FY 2008009 defense budget: $527 billion, excluding supplemental for –ir and afpak] [***]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102902589.html
France Boosts Spending on Military
Program Reflects Intent to Conduct Activist Policies Worldwide
By Edward Cody
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A18 [France] [EU] [NATO redux] [western media just cannot get enough of Sarkozy] [most pro-US French leader in generations] [I’m not how sure his solidarity with US plays in France] [strengthening NATO ties?] [followup June 18] [****]
PARIS, Oct. 29 -- The French government decided Wednesday to increase military spending by an average of $1.8 billion a year as part of an effort to field a trimmer but better-equipped army to safeguard France's role in world affairs. [consider the US FY 2008009 defense budget: $527 billion, excluding supplemental for –ir and afpak] [***]

The five-year program, which has been under study since President Nicolas Sarkozy took power in May 2007, was maintained despite a financial crisis that has undermined the already sluggish French economy and led to predictions of budget cutbacks across the government. Defense Minister Hervé Morin said the decision illustrated Sarkozy's determination, even amid financial turmoil, to conduct activist policies in Afghanistan, Africa and other trouble spots around the globe.

Sarkozy proposed Wednesday, for instance, that European countries, including France, dispatch a military force to Congo to work alongside U.N. peacekeepers trying to end the spiraling conflict there.

"In spite of the crisis, we will not touch defense funds," Morin said in an interview with the Figaro newspaper. "France wants to maintain a strong foreign policy. For its voice to be heard, it must be a credible military power."

The defense planning law, which the government's parliamentary majority is likely to pass unaltered, provided for $230 billion through 2014. It listed as priority expenditures the launching of reconnaissance satellites, increasing by 700 the number of intelligence agents and buying antimissile alert systems. In deference to the economic slowdown, however, it mandated holding firm on expenditures for the first three years and then piling the increases into the last two years.

Morin acknowledged at a news conference that the delay raised the risk that future governments could cut back on the spending plans in a financial pinch. But he said the overall goals would be maintained, and, if a crisis arose, France's military leadership would understand the need to run out the expenditures over a few more years.

Intelligence gathering has been identified as a major gap among the 3,000-member French military contingent in Afghanistan. Soon after taking office, Sarkozy increased its number and expanded its mission to include front-line patrols alongside U.S. and other NATO troops in the International Security and Assistance Force. [***]

The decision was bitterly criticized after 10 French soldiers were killed and 21 wounded Aug. 18 in an ambush near Kabul, the Afghan capital. French opinion polls consistently have shown that a majority of those queried oppose the deployment, and some critics accused the government of providing inadequate equipment to the ambushed troops. As a result, Sarkozy's government has been eager to be seen supporting the command and making sure the military has what it needs.

The French armed forces, numbering 259,000 regulars and 419,000 reserves, are the largest in Europe. But they rank 14th in the world, reflecting France's relative decline as a military power over the last half a century. Sarkozy has vowed to reverse the trend and keep the country in the club of nuclear powers with the ability to intervene militarily around the world.

Morin said the expenditures also will permit France's defense industries to remain competitive. "France is among the three or four biggest countries when it comes to the arms industry," he said. "I did everything so that we can maintain those industrial icons and the 350,000 jobs they generate in France." [****]
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Advocates for Gaza Challenge Blockade

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/middleeast/30mideast.html
October 30, 2008
Advocates for Gaza Challenge Blockade
By ISABEL KERSHNER [Israeli-Palestinian conflict] [following the Annapolis conference and the agreement to seek agreement by end of 2008] [sadly, when Olmert has absolutely no power—except moral suasion—he makes the most poignant calls] [it’s the same on the Palestinian side] [only when Arafat was marginalized did was he prepared for real concessions] [the Gaza blockade that has so devastated regular Palestinians] [*****]
JERUSALEM — A boatload of international campaigners challenged the Israeli blockade of Hamas-run Gaza on Wednesday and sailed into a small port there, the third such landing in two months.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/middleeast/30mideast.html
October 30, 2008
Advocates for Gaza Challenge Blockade
By ISABEL KERSHNER [Israeli-Palestinian conflict] [following the Annapolis conference and the agreement to seek agreement by end of 2008] [sadly, when Olmert has absolutely no power—except moral suasion—he makes the most poignant calls] [it’s the same on the Palestinian side] [only when Arafat was marginalized did was he prepared for real concessions] [the Gaza blockade that has so devastated regular Palestinians] [*****]
JERUSALEM — A boatload of international campaigners challenged the Israeli blockade of Hamas-run Gaza on Wednesday and sailed into a small port there, the third such landing in two months.

Among the 27 activists and crew members of the vessel that sailed from Cyprus were Mairead Maguire, a Nobel Peace Prize winner who led a campaign against violence in Northern Ireland; Mustafa Barghouti, an independent Palestinian legislator from the West Bank; two Israeli citizens; and individuals from various countries including Britain, Italy and the United States. [***] [nice gesture] [unlike to persuade anybody] [***]

The voyage, as was the last one, was organized under the auspices of the Free Gaza Movement, a Palestinian advocacy group based in El Cerrito, Calif.

In late August, the first two boats arrived together in Gaza despite Israeli threats to stop them. Israeli Foreign Ministry officials said at the time that there had been a last-minute decision to let the boats through to avoid a public relations debacle, and not to play into the hands of people they described as provocateurs.

This time, too, Israeli officials had stated that the boat would not be allowed to reach Gaza, yet it was allowed to proceed without hindrance.

“It was decided at the highest levels to allow them to enter,” said Yigal Palmor, an Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman, without explanation.

Hamas, the Islamist group that took control of Gaza in June 2007, is classified as a terrorist organization by Israel, the United States and the European Union. Israel strictly limits the volume and type of goods entering the area by land, though the economic embargo has eased somewhat since a truce took effect in June. [***]

Still, Israel maintains a policy of isolating the area. The authorities denied entry this week to 120 international academics and health professionals who had applied to attend a conference organized by the Gaza Community Mental Health Program, which offers a range of local services and is supported by the World Health Organization and other international bodies. The conference focused on the state of mental health in Gaza in light of the blockade.

The international experts participated by video conference from Ramallah, in the West Bank.

Before dawn on Wednesday, Israeli forces shot dead a Palestinian man in the village of Yamoun, near Jenin, in the northern West Bank. A spokesman for the Israeli military said that the man, Muhammad Abahreh, 67, had fired a hunting rifle at a force that was on a routine operation in the area, and that the soldiers had fired back.

Mr. Abahreh’s son, Taher, told news agencies that his father, a farmer, was guarding his livestock against rustlers in an enclosure just outside the village when he was shot in the dark.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Senior Iraqi Leader Says Pact With U.S. Is Unlikely to Pass

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102902279.html
Senior Iraqi Leader Says Pact With U.S. Is Unlikely to Pass
Politicians' Fears of Voter Backlash Cited
By Dan Eggen and Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A19 [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [imagine my surprise: the –iraqis now saying SOFA unlikely for foreseeable future] [****]
A senior Iraqi political leader said yesterday he is "doubtful" that a bilateral agreement authorizing U.S. forces to remain in Iraq after the end of the year would be approved by the Iraqi cabinet and parliament. [this is a gift] [declare victory] [being withdrawing US troops in systematic way] [very quickly a SOFA will be signed that allows for emergency contingencies] [******]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102902279.html
Senior Iraqi Leader Says Pact With U.S. Is Unlikely to Pass
Politicians' Fears of Voter Backlash Cited
By Dan Eggen and Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A19 [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [imagine my surprise: the –iraqis now saying SOFA unlikely for foreseeable future] [****]
A senior Iraqi political leader said yesterday he is "doubtful" that a bilateral agreement authorizing U.S. forces to remain in Iraq after the end of the year would be approved by the Iraqi cabinet and parliament. [this is a gift] [declare victory] [being withdrawing US troops in systematic way] [very quickly a SOFA will be signed that allows for emergency contingencies] [******]

Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, said most political factions in Iraq want the accord to go through. But he said the country is "in a situation of intellectual terrorism, where people are not able to state their real positions" for fear of appearing too close to the United States and of undercutting their standing in provincial elections scheduled for January.

"Personally, I'm doubtful it will pass," Barzani said, speaking through a translator, [***]during a meeting with Washington Post reporters and editors.

The assessment came amid growing signs of trouble in negotiations over a status-of-forces agreement, or SOFA, that would govern the U.S. military presence in Iraq after a United Nations mandate expires Dec. 31. The process stalled again this week when the Iraqi cabinet decided to reopen negotiations and propose a series of amendments to the pact.

President Bush, who met with Barzani yesterday in the Oval Office, said he was “analyzing” the proposals and is optimistic that an agreement can be reached. “We obviously want to be helpful and constructive without undermining basic principles,” Bush said. “And I remain very hopeful and confident that the SOFA will get passed.” [****]

But the mild encouragement from Bush came as other administration officials strongly suggested that a compromise is unlikely, increasing the possibility that the issue will become one of the first major challenges facing the next U.S. president.

The Iraqis have made several key demands, including granting Iraq more legal authority over U.S. troops accused of crimes; hardening a tentative 2011 departure date for American troops; and allowing Iraqi inspection of U.S. military shipments. After a controversial raid by U.S. forces into Syrian territory last weekend, the Iraqis also want an explicit ban on the United States staging attacks from Iraq into neighboring countries.

The Bush administration has repeatedly said that the current draft of the agreement is the furthest that the United States is willing to go. "The bar to any revisions is very high," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.

Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, said the administration would listen to the Iraqi concerns but is reluctant to reopen negotiations. Instead, he said, the goal is to finalize the agreement before the end of the year. [***]

"Otherwise, our guys are sitting there illegally," Morrell said. "The risk you run then is that the gains that have been made at great costs . . . will start to unravel."

Morrell said Iraqi political dynamics and Iranian interference are creating obstacles to the accord. "We have ample evidence that the Iranians are doing everything within their power to try to derail the agreement," he said.

In Iraq, Kurdish politicians have long been the most supportive of the U.S. presence, and the two main Kurdish parties are the only ones in the government to have publicly backed the agreement. "We believe it is in the interest of all Iraqis, especially Kurdistan," [****] Barzani said yesterday.

Shiite parties contesting for control of provincial councils have not committed themselves, and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has not taken a public stand on the agreement.

Iraq could seek a one-year extension of the U.N. mandate as a short-term solution, but Iraqi officials have long resisted that alternative as a violation of their national sovereignty. [****]
Staff writer Ann Scott Tyson contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

U.S. Takes Battle Against Iraq Violence to Border

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102904038.html
U.S. Takes Battle Against Iraq Violence to Border
By Ernesto Londoño
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A16 [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
ZURBATIYAH, Iraq -- For thousands of Iranians, traveling to Iraq through this bustling, dusty gateway now requires stopping at small white trailers where U.S. officials take their photos and record scans of their irises and fingerprints. [probably not for much longer] [****]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/29/AR2008102904038.html
U.S. Takes Battle Against Iraq Violence to Border
By Ernesto Londoño
Washington Post Foreign Service
Thursday, October 30, 2008; A16 [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
ZURBATIYAH, Iraq -- For thousands of Iranians, traveling to Iraq through this bustling, dusty gateway now requires stopping at small white trailers where U.S. officials take their photos and record scans of their irises and fingerprints. [probably not for much longer] [****]

U.S. officials collect the biometric information of virtually all "military-age men" in an effort to stop the entry of weapons and fighters. Since officials began gathering biometric data at border posts this spring, more than 150,000 individuals have been scanned and photographed. [***]

Their records have been added to a burgeoning database that also includes biometric information about Iraqis and foreigners employed on American bases, as well as Iraqis who are detained or interrogated by U.S. forces. [****]American officials use the data to identify people on wanted lists, search for suspicious travel patterns, and look for matches in a separate database that includes fingerprints collected after bombings and other attacks.

"It's a bad situation," said Hamid Alavi, 27, an Iranian pilgrim, voicing exasperation about the increased U.S. military presence at Zurbatiyah. "The American people -- do they like this behavior? It's sad."

Twenty-eight teams of U.S. military officials, customs experts and former U.S. Border Patrol agents working as private contractors have been sent to small outposts along Iraq's 2,270-mile border, where U.S. officials also employ ground sensors linked to satellite cameras and unmanned aerial vehicles. [****]

U.S. officials say the dragnet has led to the detention of hundreds of "adversaries" and yielded a clearer understanding of smuggling networks. Officials plan to double the number of border teams by the end of the year.

"Internal security is getting much better," said Lt. Col. Steven Oluic, who serves as a liaison between the teams and top U.S. commanders in Baghdad. "Now what needs to happen is we need to help them shut down the borders to malign influence. Borders are now the hot issue."

A U.S. Government Accountability Office report issued this month faulted U.S. military officials for not having a standard for the types of data collected by troops in combat zones and not having better mechanisms to share the data with other federal agencies. U.S. military officials in Iraq and Afghanistan have collected biometric information from more than 1.5 million people.

The U.S. program is largely separate from Iraq's halting efforts to control its borders. The government has allocated hundreds of millions of dollars to build up border and customs agencies, but Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki recently took direct control of the customs bureaucracy because of corruption concerns. [corruption concerns?] [meaning al Maliki’s people weren’t getting their share?] [****]

The Zurbatiyah port of entry, [****]east of Baghdad, is one of Iraq's busiest. Iranian trucks, which are not allowed to cross into Iraq, line up early in the morning at a parking lot on the Iranian side, where cargo is loaded onto Iraqi vehicles.

Hundreds of Iranian tourists, mainly pilgrims bound for the Shiite holy cities of Najaf and Karbala, are dropped off on the Iranian side each day. Older travelers are carried on wobbly metal carts loaded with bulging suitcases.

Military-age men must pass through a trailer, where U.S. soldiers sit behind laptop computers emblazoned with a bat symbol, a reference to the acronym of the system: Biometrics Automated Toolset. The scanning and photography take a few minutes. In some cases, officials use a second scanner with facial recognition software.

U.S. officials began crafting a border security strategy in late 2005 to stem the flow of weapons and would-be suicide bombers into Iraq from Syria.

But since last year, Iraq's 900-mile border with Iran has become the top priority: U.S. officials have accused Iran of arming, training and financing militias in Iraq, a charge Iranian officials have consistently denied.

Though the borders remain porous, U.S. officials say the new measures have contributed to the sharp reduction of violence in Iraq this year by forcing fighters and smugglers to use more remote and dangerous routes.

"It's becoming more and more effective as the database is built," Oluic said. "Monthly, it's becoming more and more difficult to use the ports of entry" for weapons and fighters.

The outposts along the border are among the most isolated and perilous in Iraq for U.S. officials.

In March, a man wearing an explosives vest targeted the biometrics intake center at the Rabiyah post on the border with Syria. He killed one interpreter and wounded two U.S. soldiers, two customs officials and two civilians employed by the U.S. military. [***]

After passing the American screening centers, travelers present their passports to Iraqi immigration officials who scan the entrant's passport and fingerprints.

Iraqi officials do not have access to the U.S. database, triggering complaints. American officials say they recognize the need to share more information but cite classification rules and other concerns over potential misuse of the data for not doing so. [***]

Ground sensors outside ports of entry, similar to ones installed along the southwest border in the United States, are linked to cameras that alert intelligence officers in the United States to suspicious movements. The officers then report the activity to U.S. soldiers near the border.

"We know that we're disrupting it," said Gen. Jeffrey S. Buchanan, a commander of the division that oversees operations south of Baghdad, referring to the passage of weapons and fighters. "I'm not going to tell you we've shut it down. But we have a much better understanding of the smuggling networks than we did six months ago."

Some militia leaders who fled Iraq to avoid being killed or captured during operations last year and early this year have begun to return to form smaller, more proficient cells of fighters, [see West Point paper] [special criminal groups is what they are called by US] [****] U.S. officials say. Officials suspect these cells are carrying out attacks against politicians amid intense campaigning among rival Shiite parties for provincial elections expected to take place next year.

U.S. military officials say they hope to implement some of the screening mechanisms at Iraq's commercial airports. This month, an Iranian airline launched three weekly flights between Tehran and Baghdad.

The U.S. officials at the border outposts also train Iraqi border officials. Iraq recently earmarked more than $400 million for its three-year plan to enhance border security, which includes building 712 forts along the border.

"There's better regulation and less corruption," said Maj. Raymond Smith, one of the team leaders at Zurbatiyah.

The beefed-up border posts and training of Iraqi officials have reduced corruption at the ports of entry. In Zurbatiyah, for example, the government last year collected $6.9 million in tariffs and taxes, up from $1.8 million in 2006 and $800,000 in 2005.

The Directorate of Border Enforcement, which has roughly 38,000 employees, is crippled by staffing problems and chronic fuel shortages that ground border patrol agents for weeks at a time and leave stations in the dark, unable to power generators. U.S. officials say that the Interior Ministry's authorization process for shipping fuel to border posts is tedious and unreliable and that some of the fuel is sold on the black market.

"It's a huge problem" for Iraqi border patrol agents, Oluic said. "These are austere environments. You can't do a foot patrol for more than two kilometers. They can't go out and do their jobs."
Staff writer Walter Pincus in Washington contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Syria: Prominent Dissidents Sentenced

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/middleeast/30briefs-PROMINENTDIS_BRF.html
October 30, 2008
World Briefing | Middle East
Syria: Prominent Dissidents Sentenced
By REUTERS [Syria] [-ir] [more on recent news that US crossed –ir-Syria border in pursuit of foreign fighters] [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [apparently, coalition troops have slowed the passage of foreign fighters from Syria portal to trickle] [also, apparently someone decided to go to source] [question is at what level this decision was made?] [today, Syria retaliates] [meanwhile, perfect cover for sentencing Syrian dissidents] [****]
A Syrian court sentenced 12 prominent dissidents to two and a half years each in prison on Wednesday for calling for democratic reforms and an end to the Baath Party’s

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/middleeast/30briefs-PROMINENTDIS_BRF.html
October 30, 2008
World Briefing | Middle East
Syria: Prominent Dissidents Sentenced
By REUTERS [Syria] [-ir] [more on recent news that US crossed –ir-Syria border in pursuit of foreign fighters] [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [apparently, coalition troops have slowed the passage of foreign fighters from Syria portal to trickle] [also, apparently someone decided to go to source] [question is at what level this decision was made?] [today, Syria retaliates] [meanwhile, perfect cover for sentencing Syrian dissidents] [****]
A Syrian court sentenced 12 prominent dissidents to two and a half years each in prison on Wednesday for calling for democratic reforms and an end to the Baath Party’s monopoly on power. The dissidents, 11 men and a woman, were arrested last year after holding a large meeting to revive a movement that called for freedom of expression and a democratic constitution in Syria, [****] which has been ruled by the Baath Party for four decades. Their case has drawn international condemnation, with the United States and European nations repeatedly calling for their release. The defendants, who are among Syria’s leading intellectuals and opposition figures, have been in jail since their arrest. The charges against them included “weakening national morale.” [****]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Thousands of Syrians Protest U.S. Raid

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/world/middleeast/31syria.html
October 31, 2008
Thousands of Syrians Protest U.S. Raid
By GRAHAM BOWLEY [Syria] [-ir] [more on recent news that US crossed –ir-Syria border in pursuit of foreign fighters] [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [apparently, coalition troops have slowed the passage of foreign fighters from Syria portal to trickle] [also, apparently someone decided to go to source] [question is at what level this decision was made?] [yesterday and today, Syria responds] [****]
Thousands of people demonstrated in the Syrian capital, Damascus, on Thursday, in an apparently stage-managed protest by the government of the American military raid across the Iraqi border into Syrian territory on Sunday. [this does not mean that Syrians are not genuinely angry] [but the Syrian regime is infamous for bussing in people for such “demonstrations] [also note the diversion from the dissident story in today’s external] [Syria may have rolled it out to coincide] [*****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/world/middleeast/31syria.html
October 31, 2008
Thousands of Syrians Protest U.S. Raid
By GRAHAM BOWLEY [Syria] [-ir] [more on recent news that US crossed –ir-Syria border in pursuit of foreign fighters] [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [apparently, coalition troops have slowed the passage of foreign fighters from Syria portal to trickle] [also, apparently someone decided to go to source] [question is at what level this decision was made?] [yesterday and today, Syria responds] [****]
Thousands of people demonstrated in the Syrian capital, Damascus, on Thursday, in an apparently stage-managed protest by the government of the American military raid across the Iraqi border into Syrian territory on Sunday. [this does not mean that Syrians are not genuinely angry] [but the Syrian regime is infamous for bussing in people for such “demonstrations] [also note the diversion from the dissident story in today’s external] [Syria may have rolled it out to coincide] [*****]

Accounts of the demonstration were carried by SANA, Syria’s official news agency. It would be highly unusual for a spontaneous demonstration to arise in Damascus, where political speech is often punished and political protests are not tolerated.

Judging by other news accounts and images shown on television, it seemed clear that the government had orchestrated the protest, which looked precisely timed and organized. [****]

The BBC showed TV scenes of crowds of protesters massing in central Damascus, carrying Syrian flags and pictures of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad. According to The Associated Press, which reported from Damascus, Syrian riot police formed a protective ring around the United States Embassy, a mile away from the demonstrations. The embassy was closed for the protests and the crowds dispersed peacefully after a couple of hours, The A.P. said. [I think I hears late yesterday that state department warned employees not to come to work] [temporary shut down of US facilities in Syria] [****]

Syria said eight civilians were killed in the raid on Sunday, and has described the attack as “terrorist aggression” by the United States. But American officials said the raid, by American helicopter-borne forces, killed an Iraqi militant responsible for running weapons, money and foreign fighters across the border into Iraq. The American officials said that all the people killed in the assault were militants.

Earlier this week, in its first retaliation against the raid, the Syrian cabinet said it had decided to order the closure of the American School and an American cultural center in Damascus.

The strike into Syria was by far the boldest by American commandos in the five years since the United States invaded Iraq and began to condemn Syria’s role in stoking the Iraqi insurgency. [****]

But in justifying the attack, American officials said the United States was determined to halt the flow of militants and weapons across the border to the insurgency.

They confirmed the death in the raid of the man suspected of leading an insurgent cell, an Iraqi known as Abu Ghadiya. In the raid on Sunday, about two dozen American commandos in specially equipped Black Hawk helicopters swooped into the village of Sukkariyah, six miles from the Iraqi border, just before 5 p.m., [****]and fought a brief gun battle with Abu Ghadiya and several members of his cell, the officials said.

It was unclear whether Abu Ghadiya died near his tent on the battlefield or after he was taken into American custody, one senior American official said.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Afghanistan Tests Waters for Overture to Taliban

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/asia/30taliban.html
October 30, 2008
Afghanistan Tests Waters for Overture to Taliban
By CARLOTTA GALL [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [additionally, huge problem that NATO must get under control] [corruption hurting Karzai] [finally, top brass calling for new mixture of troops so reliance on airpower is lessened] [implementation of talking to Islamists who are thought not to be jihadis] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — The Afghan government and its allies in the region have begun approaching the Taliban and other insurgent groups with new intensity to test the possibilities for eventual peace talks, Western diplomats and Afghan officials here say.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/asia/30taliban.html
October 30, 2008
Afghanistan Tests Waters for Overture to Taliban
By CARLOTTA GALL [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [additionally, huge problem that NATO must get under control] [corruption hurting Karzai] [finally, top brass calling for new mixture of troops so reliance on airpower is lessened] [implementation of talking to Islamists who are thought not to be jihadis] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — The Afghan government and its allies in the region have begun approaching the Taliban and other insurgent groups with new intensity to test the possibilities for eventual peace talks, Western diplomats and Afghan officials here say.

The diplomatic approaches have been stepped up over the last several months by the Afghan government, as well as by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, [****] the officials said. They are part of a broad political effort to stem the downward spiral of violence in Afghanistan and the steep decline of public support for the government during a year that has proved to be the bloodiest of the past seven.

Security has deteriorated to the point that a growing chorus of Western diplomats, NATO commanders and Afghans has begun to argue that the insurgency cannot be defeated solely by military means. [***]Some officials in Kabul contend that the war against the insurgents cannot be won and are calling for negotiations.

The readiness of Saudi Arabia to sponsor talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government was especially important, Western diplomats said. “It is part of a political effort that needs to be made inside and outside the country to ensure that the military effort is complemented in the right ways,” [****]one diplomat said. [Saudi was one of a few governments that maintained links with Talib until shortly after 9/11?] [****]

Important parts of the strategy would be to exploit what diplomats here say are fissures in the Taliban, to separate what amounts to day-wage fighters from the movement’s hard-core elements, whom many officials consider to be “irreconcilable,” and to divide the Taliban from Al Qaeda.

But some officials fear that without a turnaround in the security situation, the Afghan government and the international forces here will not be in a strong bargaining position. The next six to seven months, when fighting traditionally slows in the winter, will be critical, they said.

Many of the diplomats, military officials and Afghan officials interviewed spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the delicacy of the matter.

The United States military is preparing to take the fight to the insurgents throughout the winter, and it has requested an extra 20,000 American troops in addition to the extra American brigade arriving in January, a senior military commander said. The hope is to break the stalemate that has been building with the insurgents in the south. [****]

At the same time, the Afghan government must improve its policing and its performance in outlying districts and provinces in order to build trust in those communities before the next fighting season starts, another senior Western diplomat said.

One of the important lessons of fighting a counterinsurgency in Iraq “is that you need a comprehensive approach,” said Gen. David H. Petraeus in an interview in September in London.

The general, who formerly led American forces in Iraq, takes over command of all United States forces in Iraq and Afghanistan at Central Command on Friday. He has already been outspoken about the need for a regional approach to resolving the Afghan conflict.

“Where Central Command can help is in looking at this overall challenge as a region, and helping regionally by looking not just at Afghanistan, but also of course Pakistan, at the Stans, Iran and even some of the other countries in the greater region that have been long involved, such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and some of the gulf States, and even leaders in Lebanon,” [****] [finally, the call for broad-based policy that recognizes these guys don’t exist without donations from middle east and elsewhere] [***] he said.

Diplomacy and regional cooperation in the Afghan conflict have been at best faltering in recent years. But some of that is now changing.

On Tuesday, for instance, Afghan and Pakistani officials completed a two-day jirga, or leadership gathering, of 50 officials and elders from both countries to work on developing peace and security in the region.

The jirga, an initiative of the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, was largely ignored by the former Pakistani president, Pervez Musharraf, and its convening in Islamabad, Pakistan, was seen as an indication that cooperation between the countries had improved since the election of the Asif Ali Zardari [***]as Pakistan’s president in September.

One of the main decisions of the jirga was for a smaller committee to open a dialogue with the Taliban and other opposition groups on both sides of the border, Abdullah, the former Afghan foreign minister who uses one name, said Wednesday on his return here from the gathering.

But he stressed that talking to insurgent groups was only one element of a much wider effort to bring security to the region, including closing off sanctuaries for terrorists and prosecuting those who have committed crimes against humanity.

Behind the scenes, there has also been quiet work by people like Abdullah Anas, an Algerian who fought in Afghanistan with the mujahedeen during the Soviet occupation in the 1980s.

For the last two years, in an effort supported by Mr. Karzai, Mr. Anas has been lobbying influential Muslim clerics and international leaders of jihads in an attempt to draw the Taliban away from Al Qaeda and to bring peace to Afghanistan, according to an Afghan military attaché working on the plan.

“The problem is not going to be solved by war,” Mr. Anas said in a telephone interview from London. Neither NATO nor the insurgents could win the war outright, he said, and he predicted that fighting could continue for 10 more years at the cost of some 100,000 casualties.

He said that two main issues stand between the sides: the presence of foreign forces and the system of government. Afghans from all sides, all ethnicities, including all the mujahedeen groups, should come together to work it out, he said.

Neighboring countries must be persuaded that peace will not hurt them, and that they can be winners, too, he said. “This initiative will succeed if the neighbors see it as an initiative not against them, but for them,” [****]he said.

The involvement of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia was of symbolic importance because of his standing in the Muslim world, [***]diplomats and Afghan government officials said. The king hosted some 50 Afghan representatives in Mecca at an iftar dinner, where Muslims break their daily fast during the holy month of Ramadan, which ended this year in early October.

Although the peace effort was kept quiet, the Saudi foreign minister, Saud al-Faisal, later acknowledged that at the request of Mr. Karzai the country was leading “an attempt with the Afghan parties to put an end to the fighting in Afghanistan and restore security and stability.” [*****]

Among those who attended were Mr. Karzai’s brother, Qayum Karzai, and the head of the Council of Clerics of Afghanistan, Maulvi Fazl Hadi Shinwari. Also present were two former Taliban officials who have remained under government protection in Kabul since their release from United States custody: Mullah Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil, a former Taliban foreign minister, and Mullah Abdul Salaam Zaeef, who served as the Taliban’s ambassador to Pakistan.

Active representatives of the Taliban were also said to be present, although two Taliban spokesmen, Zabiullah Mujahed and Qari Yousuf Ahmadi, contacted by telephone denied it and said that the Taliban was not ready to negotiate. [****] [probably reflects that factions exist within Taliban] [Islamists and global jihadis] [***]

Yet the two spokesmen indicated in previous interviews that the movement had broken from Al Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden, a stance that was seen as opening the way for negotiations.

“Al Qaeda has an international agenda, and Taliban have their own agenda, which is Afghanistan,” said Mr. Muttawakil, who was seen as a moderate member of the Taliban government and now supports peace talks.

NATO diplomats say there has also been a steady shift in the United States’ position over how to deal with the Taliban, much of it thanks to the American ambassador in Kabul, William B. Wood, who has argued the case back in Washington for more flexibility.

At the same time, government and Western officials in Afghanistan say they have had increasing contact from members of the Taliban who want to give up the fight.

“I’m not saying the Taliban is on the brink of fragmenting, I’m just saying that we are seeing fissures, fracture lines, questionings,” one Western diplomat said earlier this year. [****]

Even as Afghans grow increasingly weary of the fighting, some Taliban, like the prominent commander Jalaluddin Haqqani, are likely to remain out of the reach of any negotiation, military officials say. Mr. Haqqani maintains close links with Al Qaeda and has been behind some of the worst attacks in Afghanistan this year. [***]
“There are some that will never be reconciled,” Lt. Col. Rumi Nielson-Green, the United States military spokeswoman at Bagram Air Base, said last week.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Suicide Blast Rocks Ministry in Kabul

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/world/asia/31afghan.html
October 31, 2008
Suicide Blast Rocks Ministry in Kabul
By ABDUL WAHEED WAFA and CARLOTTA GALL [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [additionally, huge problem that NATO must get under control] [corruption hurting Karzai] [finally, top brass calling for new mixture of troops so reliance on airpower is lessened] [another in a recent spate of suicide bombers—usually foreign fighters] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — An explosion tore through the Ministry of Information and Culture in central Kabul on Thursday, killing two people and wounding 21, [***] according to officials and witnesses.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/world/asia/31afghan.html
October 31, 2008
Suicide Blast Rocks Ministry in Kabul
By ABDUL WAHEED WAFA and CARLOTTA GALL [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [additionally, huge problem that NATO must get under control] [corruption hurting Karzai] [finally, top brass calling for new mixture of troops so reliance on airpower is lessened] [another in a recent spate of suicide bombers—usually foreign fighters] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — An explosion tore through the Ministry of Information and Culture in central Kabul on Thursday, killing two people and wounding 21, [***] according to officials and witnesses.

A suicide bomber first killed a policeman at the entrance and then set off the explosion inside the ministry building, the police chief of Kabul, [***] [??] Gen. Muhammad Ayub Salangi, said after touring the bomb scene. Five of the wounded were in critical condition, and two children in the ministry’s kindergarten received superficial wounds, he said.

A second man died later, according to the deputy police chief, Gen. Ali Shah Ahmadazi. Correcting earlier reports that as many as five people had been killed, he said three of the wounded who were badly burned had at first been reported dead.

No senior officials were hurt but ministry workers emerged shaken from the building. One woman covered in thick dust was helped from the building. Another, trembling in panic, was trying to get into the building where she said her children were in the kindergarten.

Akhtar Muhammad Amir, an official at the state-run Bakhtar news agency, said he was on the fifth floor when he heard shooting and then a huge explosion. “Thick dust covered all the corridors, and all the windows of the offices were shattered,” [***]he said. “Some of our staff were wounded by the flying glass from the windows,” he said.

He said the main conference hall and adjacent kindergarten on the ground floor were wrecked. “Mothers were searching for their children,” he said.

Part of one wall of the ministry was destroyed in the blast. Police and security officials swarmed around the front of the five-story building, which stands on one of the busiest streets in the capital.

A Taliban spokesman claimed responsibility for the attack within minutes in a telephone call to news agencies, saying that three suicide attackers were involved. But General Ahmadazi said there was a single bomber who detonated his explosives inside the main conference hall on the ground floor after firing on guards. [****]

General Salangi said the attack was similar to a complex attack in January on the five-star Serena Hotel when at least three bombers dressed in police uniforms succeeded in penetrating security by attacking with gunfire and successive suicide bombs. [****]

The Taliban, which are fighting the government of President Hamid Karzai and his American-led backers, have made repeated attacks in the capital on government buildings and convoys of foreign forces.

Mr. Karzai condemned Thursday’s attack from Istanbul, where he is attending a conference. He linked the attack to Afghanistan’s recent diplomatic moves to make peace with opposition groups. “Our enemies are trying to undermine the recent efforts by the government for a peaceful solution to end the violence,” [***]he said in a statement.

Earlier this month, the Taliban said its supporters shot to death a 34-year-old British aid worker in Kabul whom it accused of spreading Christianity. [***]Afghan police also said the shooting of two other foreigners running the international courier service DHL in Kabul was an attack by terrorists.
The Taliban have said they will continue attacks until foreign forces withdraw from the country. [and then they will set a new demand] [****]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Quake in Pakistan Kills at Least 215

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/asia/30quake.html
October 30, 2008
Quake in Pakistan Kills at Least 215
By SALMAN MASOOD [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [followup ] [literal instability] [another earthquake] [US might want to offer assistance to win some PR points—and do the right thing concomitantly] [followup yesterday’s external] [*****]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — A powerful earthquake jolted parts of southwestern Pakistan on Wednesday, causing widespread destruction in one of the poorest areas of the country, officials said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/asia/30quake.html
October 30, 2008
Quake in Pakistan Kills at Least 215
By SALMAN MASOOD [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [followup ] [literal instability] [another earthquake] [US might want to offer assistance to win some PR points—and do the right thing concomitantly] [followup yesterday’s external] [*****]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — A powerful earthquake jolted parts of southwestern Pakistan on Wednesday, causing widespread destruction in one of the poorest areas of the country, officials said.

The Associated Press put the death toll at 215 early Thursday. Hundreds more were injured as hundreds of mud houses in desolate villages and hamlets in several districts of Baluchistan Province were leveled by the magnitude 6.5 quake, which struck at 5:10 a.m. Army and paramilitary troops and aid workers scrambled to help the survivors and pull bodies and the injured out of the rubble, but they were hampered by significant damage to roads and the telecommunications network. [****]

The death toll is expected to rise as reports from remote areas funnel in. Meanwhile, an estimated 15,000 people left homeless are trying to withstand the cold and serious aftershocks. [****]Local television showed residents sitting in the open, shivering in the cold. Women huddled in groups with their panicked children. Debris of mud houses with caved roofs presented a bleak sight.

People were shown searching through the rubble for survivors and belongings. There were reports of mass burials.

“It was a shallow earthquake, which is very destructive,” said Qamar Zaman Chaudhry, the director general of the Pakistan Meteorological Department. “The aftershocks will be felt for a week with more or less the same intensity.” Indeed, one on Wednesday evening had a magnitude of 6.2.

The quake struck along a 44-mile stretch including Quetta, the provincial capital, which lies on a fault line and was leveled in 1935 by a quake that killed 35,000 people. [****]

“It was scary,” Malik Siraj Akbar, a resident of Quetta and a journalist for The Daily Times, an English-language daily, said by telephone. “The walls of the apartment complex where I live shook so hard that I just closed my eyes and waited for the roof to collapse. I feel so lucky to be alive.”

Aid workers said that 2,000 to 3,000 homes were damaged and that 500 had collapsed. [****]

The International Committee of the Red Cross said it had sent two teams of aid workers to the area, a total of 28 staff members and volunteers, and two mobile health teams.

“Shelter is the most critical need now,” said Hasan Muzamdar, the country director of the relief agency CARE, noting that nighttime temperatures fall to 40 degrees. “Winter has already started here.”

The earthquake on Wednesday brought back bitter memories of the magnitude 7.6 earthquake that struck in October 2005 and left more than 75,000 people dead and hundreds of thousands homeless in the northern parts of Pakistan and parts of the Himalayan region of Kashmir, [***]which is divided between Pakistan and India. In that disaster, frustration with the slow pace of government assistance tended to run high.

A poor government response in Baluchistan, where bitterness against the federal government in Islamabad has simmered for years, could be very damaging. [***]One of Pakistan’s four provinces, Baluchistan is rich with natural resources and sparsely populated, and armed Baluch nationalists have been demanding greater autonomy and a larger share of the national wealth. However, the affected area is inhabited by Pashtuns, a strongly tribal ethnic group that constitutes the majority of the population of Afghanistan.

But officials in Islamabad said the government was taking necessary measures. “It is a localized affair,” said Farooq Ahmed Khan, head of the National Disaster Management Authority, at a news conference in Islamabad.

He said that 2,000 tents, 5,000 blankets and 4,000 plastic mats had been sent to Baluchistan and that 12 helicopters were taking part in the rescue operation. “There were no major buildings in the area,” he said. “So, there was no need for a technical search-and-rescue operation.” [****]

In the hilly tourist resort of Ziarat, a tent village has been established for women and children, as well as a field hospital in the worst-affected district. Eight villages were completely flattened there, officials said.

Mr. Khan said there was no immediate need to appeal for international assistance but also welcomed “any outside help.”
Jane Perlez contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Pakistan Tells U.S. to Stop Airstrikes in Tribal Zone

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/asia/30pstan.html
October 30, 2008
Pakistan Tells U.S. to Stop Airstrikes in Tribal Zone
By JANE PERLEZ [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [followup ] [another example, as far as I can tell, where tactics (change in rules of engagement) is driving policy rather than strategy] [Pakistan authorities forced to publicly break with Bush administration over breaches of sovereignty] [use psci46bb] [comes as evidence that Zardari-Kiyani are beginning to employ counter-insurgency tactics] [followup yesterday] [*****]
PESHAWAR, Pakistan — The Pakistani government lodged a formal protest on Wednesday over American missile attacks on the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the nation’s tribal areas and told the American ambassador the strikes should be “stopped immediately,” [****]the Foreign Ministry said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/asia/30pstan.html
October 30, 2008
Pakistan Tells U.S. to Stop Airstrikes in Tribal Zone
By JANE PERLEZ [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [followup ] [another example, as far as I can tell, where tactics (change in rules of engagement) is driving policy rather than strategy] [Pakistan authorities forced to publicly break with Bush administration over breaches of sovereignty] [use psci46bb] [comes as evidence that Zardari-Kiyani are beginning to employ counter-insurgency tactics] [followup yesterday] [*****]
PESHAWAR, Pakistan — The Pakistani government lodged a formal protest on Wednesday over American missile attacks on the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the nation’s tribal areas and told the American ambassador the strikes should be “stopped immediately,” [****]the Foreign Ministry said.

Ambassador Anne Patterson was summoned to the ministry two days after a missile strike by a drone in South Waziristan killed 20 people, including several local Taliban commanders.

Last Friday, a similar strike hit a religious school in North Waziristan, killing eight people, all of them militant fighters, according to local residents. There have been at least 19 American strikes against the militants in the tribal region since August.

The escalation of the missile attacks has shaken the Pakistani public, and the new government led by President Asif Ali Zardari has been under pressure to distance itself from what is perceived as an American-led fight against terrorism inside Pakistan. [***]

Many Pakistanis, including representatives of political parties in the government coalition, say they believe the increase in suicide attacks, including the bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad on Sept. 20, is in retaliation for the American strikes.

The Pakistani government has taken several steps in the last week to show its sensitivity to public hostility over the missile strikes. A two-week, on-and-off parliamentary debate on how to tackle terrorism resulted in a broad resolution last Thursday that called for talks with militants who renounced violence. The resolution also said the Pakistani Army, which is fighting the militants in the Bajaur region of the tribal area, should withdraw as soon as possible, [****] and be replaced by civilian law enforcement agencies.

On Tuesday, Afghan and Pakistani leaders pledged to seek talks with Taliban forces who lay down their weapons. [***]

Meanwhile, the Bush administration stepped up the missile strikes from Predator remotely piloted aircraft after Taliban forces in the Pakistani tribal belt conducted increasingly lethal attacks against American and coalition forces in Afghanistan.

The Bush administration has also expressed concern that Al Qaeda is using the ungoverned tribal areas to prepare attacks against the United States and Europe. [almost certainly true] [****] A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, Mohammed Sadiq, said Ms. Patterson was told that the missile strikes were “counterproductive” to Pakistan’s efforts to win the allegiance of the residents of the tribal areas and to reduce their support of the militants.

“The drone attacks have negative repercussions when the Pakistani government tries to get the support of the people in the tribal area,” Mr. Sadiq said. “They are not helping meet the objectives of the war on terror.”

After Ms. Patterson left the ministry, the Pakistanis said in a statement, “It was emphasized that such attacks were a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty and should be stopped immediately.”

The ambassador was last called to the Foreign Ministry to receive a protest after American Special Operations forces carried out a ground raid into South Waziristan on Sept. 3. The Pakistanis said the raid resulted in the deaths of civilians, including women and children.

The chief of staff of the Pakistani Army, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, said after the ground attack that Pakistan would defend its border “at all costs.” Since then, there has been no known ground incursion by the Americans.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Bomb Attacks in India Kill at Least 67

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/world/asia/31assam.html
October 31, 2008
Bomb Attacks in India Kill at Least 67
By HARI KUMAR and ALAN COWELL [India] [SAsia] [subcontinent] [communal violence within and between that has led to the precipice of regional war multiple times] [but apparently Hindus proselytize as do other religions] [another reason India’s rise will be slowed though it’s probably inevitable but not as soon as some think] [use psci469b] [Indian authorities have infamously rounded up the usual Islamic suspects] [then it turned out it was extremist Hindu group who had sought to frame Muslims] [now more violence via detonated bombs] [India seems on the precipice of an abyss] [followup] [use psci469b] [****]
NEW DELHI — A series of apparently synchronized explosions tore through four towns in the troubled state of Assam in northeastern India on Thursday, killing at least 67 people and leaving more than 210 wounded, [***]according to witnesses and police.

The bombs targeted crowded markets and government buildings like courts and police stations, witnesses said. The attacks, among the bloodiest in recent months, left streets littered with bodies and the wreckage of cars and motorcycles, [***] according to witnesses and photographers at the scene.

There were no immediate reports that any group had taken responsibility for the bombings.

For many years, Assam state has been riven by a separatist insurgency led by the United Liberation Front of Assam, which demands independence for the region of some 26 million people and is often blamed by the authorities for bombings. [***] Last month, ethnic clashes left 57 people dead in the area when indigenous Bodos fought with Bengali-speaking Muslims. [****]

According to witnesses and the police, at least nine blasts rocked the four towns attacked on Thursday, including three in the state capital, Guwahati. One of the bombs there had been left in the parking lot of the district court. [****]

“I saw six or seven people fully burned lying on the ground,” said Jeet Hazarika, a 32-year-old lawyer in Guwahati, who spoke in a telephone interview. “It is a very black day for us.”

Witnesses said local people, angered by the late arrival of the police and fire brigade, pelted government vehicles with stones until the authorities declared a curfew to clear the streets. [****]

Mumtaj Ahmed, a police officer in Guwahati, said the toll of 67 dead included 32 in Guwahati alone. The total number of injured was 216, he said.

In one of the explosions, in the refinery town of Bongaigaon, the police were tipped off about a suspicious-looking motorcycle, and moved it away from crowded areas. But it exploded, injuring two police officers, [****] the police said.

Khagen Sharma, the inspector general of police in Assam state, said the authorities suspected the attacks may have been orchestrated by the United Liberation Front of Assam working with militant jihadist groups. [****] He said the police had been on high alert after tips that an attack might be imminent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/31/world/asia/31assam.html
October 31, 2008
Bomb Attacks in India Kill at Least 67
By HARI KUMAR and ALAN COWELL [India] [SAsia] [subcontinent] [communal violence within and between that has led to the precipice of regional war multiple times] [but apparently Hindus proselytize as do other religions] [another reason India’s rise will be slowed though it’s probably inevitable but not as soon as some think] [use psci469b] [Indian authorities have infamously rounded up the usual Islamic suspects] [then it turned out it was extremist Hindu group who had sought to frame Muslims] [now more violence via detonated bombs] [India seems on the precipice of an abyss] [followup] [use psci469b] [****]
NEW DELHI — A series of apparently synchronized explosions tore through four towns in the troubled state of Assam in northeastern India on Thursday, killing at least 67 people and leaving more than 210 wounded, [***]according to witnesses and police.

The bombs targeted crowded markets and government buildings like courts and police stations, witnesses said. The attacks, among the bloodiest in recent months, left streets littered with bodies and the wreckage of cars and motorcycles, [***] according to witnesses and photographers at the scene.

There were no immediate reports that any group had taken responsibility for the bombings.

For many years, Assam state has been riven by a separatist insurgency led by the United Liberation Front of Assam, which demands independence for the region of some 26 million people and is often blamed by the authorities for bombings. [***] Last month, ethnic clashes left 57 people dead in the area when indigenous Bodos fought with Bengali-speaking Muslims. [****]

According to witnesses and the police, at least nine blasts rocked the four towns attacked on Thursday, including three in the state capital, Guwahati. One of the bombs there had been left in the parking lot of the district court. [****]

“I saw six or seven people fully burned lying on the ground,” said Jeet Hazarika, a 32-year-old lawyer in Guwahati, who spoke in a telephone interview. “It is a very black day for us.”

Witnesses said local people, angered by the late arrival of the police and fire brigade, pelted government vehicles with stones until the authorities declared a curfew to clear the streets. [****]

Mumtaj Ahmed, a police officer in Guwahati, said the toll of 67 dead included 32 in Guwahati alone. The total number of injured was 216, he said.

In one of the explosions, in the refinery town of Bongaigaon, the police were tipped off about a suspicious-looking motorcycle, and moved it away from crowded areas. But it exploded, injuring two police officers, [****] the police said.

Khagen Sharma, the inspector general of police in Assam state, said the authorities suspected the attacks may have been orchestrated by the United Liberation Front of Assam working with militant jihadist groups. [****] He said the police had been on high alert after tips that an attack might be imminent.

In New Delhi, Shakeel Ahmad, the minister of state for home affairs, told reporters that the situation in Assam had been “very volatile, the government was on high alert and, even then, this has happened.”

The blasts in Assam were the latest in a series of bombings in several parts of India as national elections approach. Before Thursday’s explosions, about 150 people had died in seven recent attacks around the country. India’s Muslims have grown resentful at being blamed by the authorities for many of the attacks. [***]Last Friday, though, the police said that they had arrested three people suspected of involvement in bombings last month in Malegaon, a small city in western Maharashtra state that has long simmered with religious tension. At least one of the suspects belonged to the youth wing of a Hindu nationalist political party [****], police officials said, and several Indian news organizations have described the case as the first glimpse into radical Hindu groups that plot terrorist attacks. The bomb in Malegaon exploded in a predominantly Muslim neighborhood, [****] killing four people.

In other violence, clashes between Hindus and Christians have swept through eastern Orissa state. Other flashpoints include insurgents in Kashmir and Maoist guerrillas across central India. [****]
Alan Cowell contributed reporting from Paris.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Canada: Former Government Worker Convicted on 5 Terrorism Charges

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/americas/30briefs-FORMERGOVERN_BRF.html
October 30, 2008
World Briefing | The Americas
Canada: Former Government Worker Convicted on 5 Terrorism Charges
By IAN AUSTEN [Canada] [unrest a month or so ago in montreal] [apparently, police cracked down on immigrant neighborhoods] [charges of police harassment and the like] [before that, Canada’s participation in US renditions] [before that, Afghanistan] [earlier this month, environmental terror?] [drip, drip, drip finally catching Harper] [followup] [amid all the hubbub, a reminder that jihadis exist in West] [unclear whether al Qaeda 2.0 or 3.0] [use psci469b] [*****]
A former computer programmer for the Department of Foreign Affairs of Canada was convicted on five terrorism-related charges on Wednesday. [***] Justice Douglas J. A. Rutherford of the Ontario Superior Court of Justice ruled that the

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/americas/30briefs-FORMERGOVERN_BRF.html
October 30, 2008
World Briefing | The Americas
Canada: Former Government Worker Convicted on 5 Terrorism Charges
By IAN AUSTEN [Canada] [unrest a month or so ago in montreal] [apparently, police cracked down on immigrant neighborhoods] [charges of police harassment and the like] [before that, Canada’s participation in US renditions] [before that, Afghanistan] [earlier this month, environmental terror?] [drip, drip, drip finally catching Harper] [followup] [amid all the hubbub, a reminder that jihadis exist in West] [unclear whether al Qaeda 2.0 or 3.0] [use psci469b] [*****]
A former computer programmer for the Department of Foreign Affairs of Canada was convicted on five terrorism-related charges on Wednesday. [***] Justice Douglas J. A. Rutherford of the Ontario Superior Court of Justice ruled that the programmer, Mohammad Momin Khawaja, left, had given money and support to a terrorist group that planned bombings in England. [***] A British court found five people linked with Mr. Khawaja guilty last year of taking part in the bombing plot, [***]which was not carried out; they were sentenced to life in prison. The Canadian judge said prosecutors had failed to prove that Mr. Khawaja knew about the British group’s plans to bomb British targets, but he found Mr. Khawaja guilty of having created a remote bomb detonator that the defendant called the “hifidigimonster.” [***]The defense said that Mr. Khawaja thought the plotters planned to use the device in Afghanistan or Iraq.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

October 29, 2008

Administration to Bypass Reporting Law

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/washington/25legal.html
October 25, 2008
Administration to Bypass Reporting Law
By CHARLIE SAVAGE [I must have missed it originally] [bush white house] [signing statements] [another one, with the Bush administration surpassing all signing statements from Clinton, Bush 41] [president Bush] [NSC level] [administration contention that the commander in chief as unitary power] [unitary theory of executive’s war powers] [in this case, involving DHS] [use psci355, 455] [*******]
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration has informed Congress that it is bypassing a law intended to forbid political interference with reports to lawmakers by the Department of Homeland Security. [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/washington/25legal.html
October 25, 2008
Administration to Bypass Reporting Law
By CHARLIE SAVAGE [I must have missed it originally] [bush white house] [signing statements] [another one, with the Bush administration surpassing all signing statements from Clinton, Bush 41] [president Bush] [NSC level] [administration contention that the commander in chief as unitary power] [unitary theory of executive’s war powers] [in this case, involving DHS] [use psci355, 455] [*******]
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration has informed Congress that it is bypassing a law intended to forbid political interference with reports to lawmakers by the Department of Homeland Security. [****]

The August 2007 law requires the agency’s chief privacy officer to report each year about Homeland Security activities that affect privacy, and requires that the reports be submitted directly to Congress “without any prior comment or amendment” by superiors at the department or the White House. [****]

But newly disclosed documents show that the Justice Department issued a legal opinion last January questioning the basis for that restriction, and that Michael Chertoff, the homeland security secretary, later advised Congress that the administration would not “apply this provision strictly” because it infringed on the president’s powers. [prediction: whomever the new president is, he will be reluctant to give up hard-won gains versus congress] [it’s the nature of president-level politics] [role theory] [****]

Several members of Congress reacted with outrage to the administration’s claim, which was detailed in a memorandum posted this week on the Web site of the Office of Legal Counsel at the Justice Department.

Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, called the move “unconstitutional.” He said Mr. Bush should have vetoed the bill if he did not like the provision, and compared the situation to Mr. Bush’s frequent use of signing statements to reserve a right to bypass newly enacted laws. [***]

“This is a dictatorial, after-the-fact pronouncement by him in line with a lot of other cherry-picking he’s done on the signing statements,” Mr. Specter said in a telephone interview. He added, “To put it differently, I don’t like it worth a damn.” [****]

The Bush administration defended the decision not to obey the statute. Erik Ablin, a Justice Department spokesman, said its legal view was consistent with what presidents of both parties had long maintained. [***] [indeed, while signing statements have proliferated under W, Clinton and Bush 41 used them] [***]

Mr. Ablin also said the administration had told Congress that the provision would be unconstitutional, but Congress passed the legislation — which enacted recommendations of the 9/11 Commission — without making the requested change. [uhm, isn’t that what the scotus exists?] [***] So the administration decided to sign the bill and fix what Mr. Ablin called its “defects” later.

The letter that Mr. Chertoff sent to Congress in March was addressed or copied to 10 Congressional leaders but was not publicly disclosed. It is not clear how many lawmakers saw it.

In an apparent coincidence, the Homeland Security Department’s privacy officer, Hugo Teufel III, issued his annual privacy report on Friday. It said there were 4,184 privacy complaints over a recent six-month period, [****] [geese, that sounds like an awful lot to me] [***] but gave few details about them.

The Department of Homeland Security declined to make Mr. Teufel available for an interview or to say whether administration officials had edited his report.

“We are not able to comment on this specific report,” said Laura C. Keehner, the department press secretary. She added that the department’s activities to date had complied with the Office of Legal Counsel opinion and the Constitution.

A spokeswoman for Representative Bennie Thompson, Democrat of Mississippi and chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said he would write a letter Monday to the department questioning the process by which the report was made.

The Supreme Court has never ruled on whether Congress can pass a law that puts an executive branch official beyond the control of the president when it comes to giving information to oversight committees. [on its face, it would seem unconstitutional] [***]

The court has, however, upheld statutes that gave regulatory agencies and prosecutors independence from presidential control. [***]The Justice Department memorandum issued in January said that those precedents covered different kinds of situations and so did not apply, and that the restrictions Congress sought to impose on the reports by the Homeland Security Department privacy officer “must yield to the extent their application would interfere with the president’s constitutional authority to comment upon or amend” any information provided to Congress.

Several law professors said the administration’s legal theory went too far. [***]

Neil Kinkopf, a law professor at Georgia State University who worked in the Office of Legal Counsel during the Clinton administration, called the opinion an example of the administration’s expansive theories of executive power “run amok.” [****]

Peter Strauss, a Columbia University law professor, said the 2007 law was valid because the president is not the “exclusive” source of communication with Congress. [***]

In the Justice Department memorandum, however, Steven G. Bradbury, the principal deputy assistant attorney general and head of the Office of Legal Counsel, argued that presidents of both parties had long objected to bills that would infringe on their ability to control executive branch officials or to protect against the unauthorized disclosure of information to Congress. [****]

“Such interference is impermissible regardless of its purported oversight or other justifications,” Mr. Bradbury wrote.

The Office of Legal Counsel interprets the law for the executive branch, often ruling on issues that are difficult to get before a court. Its opinions are often secret. Under Mr. Bush, the office has come under criticism as using aggressive legal arguments to provide legal cover for bypassing statutes that inhibited White House policies, including harsh interrogations and sending taxpayer dollars to religious groups.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: October 29, 2008 [******] [Corrected version]
An article on Saturday about the Bush administration’s decision to bypass a law requiring independent reports to Congress by the privacy officer of the Department of Homeland Security referred incorrectly to news coverage of the issue. A letter that Michael Chertoff, the secretary of homeland security, sent to Congress in March, stating that the law was not being strictly followed, was mentioned in the online newsletter CQ Homeland Security at the time. It is not the case that the letter received “no press coverage.” [****] [true, but who the hell reads CQ Homeland Security newsletter?]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Change Expands Eligibility for Intelligence Hires

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803690.html
Change Expands Eligibility for Intelligence Hires
By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A15 [bush white house] [NSC level] [bureaucracy] [TSPs] [NSA spy program and data mining, FISA, amendments thereto, and so on] [IC, state, dod] [congress] [110th congress, 2nd session] [bush administration’s assertion of unitary theory of executive power] [successful during first term but far less so in second] [since congress tilted Dems in 2006, struggle has been on in earnest] [followup] [use nsc] [use psci 355, 455] [more on the post-IRTPA efforts to retool America’s inetelligence community (IC)] [******]
Director of National Intelligence [DNI] [**] Mike McConnell has taken steps to make it easier for U.S. intelligence agencies to recruit first-generation Americans with foreign relatives. [****]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803690.html
Change Expands Eligibility for Intelligence Hires
By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A15 [bush white house] [NSC level] [bureaucracy] [TSPs] [NSA spy program and data mining, FISA, amendments thereto, and so on] [IC, state, dod] [congress] [110th congress, 2nd session] [bush administration’s assertion of unitary theory of executive power] [successful during first term but far less so in second] [since congress tilted Dems in 2006, struggle has been on in earnest] [followup] [use nsc] [use psci 355, 455] [more on the post-IRTPA efforts to retool America’s inetelligence community (IC)] [******]
Director of National Intelligence [DNI] [**] Mike McConnell has taken steps to make it easier for U.S. intelligence agencies to recruit first-generation Americans with foreign relatives. [****]
In an Oct. 1 directive, McConnell removed a requirement restricting access to "sensitive compartmented information," the highest level of classified information, to employees whose family members or close associates were U.S. citizens. [while a few will abuse this—and have in past any way—on balance I think it’s the correct decisions] [too much talent has been overlooked just because a person’s parents still maintained old friends in the old country] [***]In the past, there had to be a formal waiver of the citizenship requirement and a "compelling need" to hire people who did not meet the condition.

The fear was that foreign governments or groups might subject relatives or friends to physical or mental stress or torture to gain information from a U.S. intelligence employee. [we have seen a fair number of cases where a Chinese national or some other spied anyway] [it should be relatively easy to know whether an employee is under duress from foreign govt with modern technology] [the IC manages it with a raft of others who make good recruitment targets for a host of reasons] [***]

With the changes, McConnell continues implementing a proposal he offered more than 18 months ago during his confirmation hearing. At the time, he said he wanted to be able to employ individuals "who might have native language capabilities" but are barred from serving "in some of these very sensitive positions in the intelligence community." [again, I suspect there’s a pool of talent there that can now be exploited] [***]

The new directive was first disclosed by Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists on his Secrecy News Web site.

McConnell also disclosed yesterday that spending on national intelligence activities rose to $47.5 billion over the past 12 months, about 9 percent more than the $43.5 billion reported in fiscal 2007. The figure was disclosed in response to a law passed last year. [***] [as I detail in my 2007 book, there are really 3 budgets” NIP, SMIP, and Tiara] [***] It does not include spending on the military services' intelligence activities, which remain classified and run in excess of $10 billion, according to administration and congressional sources.

Intelligence spending has risen sharply since fiscal 1998, when then-Director of Central Intelligence George J. Tenet announced that total spending that year was $26.7 billion.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Intelligence Agencies Face Austerity

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/washington/29intel.html
October 29, 2008
Intelligence Agencies Face Austerity
By MARK MAZZETTI [bush white house] [NSC level] [bureaucracy] [TSPs] [NSA spy program and data mining, FISA, amendments thereto, and so on] [IC, state, dod] [congress] [110th congress, 2nd session] [bush administration’s assertion of unitary theory of executive power] [successful during first term but far less so in second] [since congress tilted Dems in 2006, struggle has been on in earnest] [followup] [use nsc] [use psci 355, 455] [more on the post-IRTPA efforts to retool America’s inetelligence community (IC)] [******]
WASHINGTON — The steep buildup in government spending on intelligence programs continued over the past year, according to figures made public on Tuesday, but American intelligence agencies are also bracing for a new era of austerity. [***]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/washington/29intel.html
October 29, 2008
Intelligence Agencies Face Austerity
By MARK MAZZETTI [bush white house] [NSC level] [bureaucracy] [TSPs] [NSA spy program and data mining, FISA, amendments thereto, and so on] [IC, state, dod] [congress] [110th congress, 2nd session] [bush administration’s assertion of unitary theory of executive power] [successful during first term but far less so in second] [since congress tilted Dems in 2006, struggle has been on in earnest] [followup] [use nsc] [use psci 355, 455] [more on the post-IRTPA efforts to retool America’s inetelligence community (IC)] [******]
WASHINGTON — The steep buildup in government spending on intelligence programs continued over the past year, according to figures made public on Tuesday, but American intelligence agencies are also bracing for a new era of austerity. [***]

Spending on intelligence operations increased by some 9 percent last year, to $47.5 billion, Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, [I believe that’s the first time the US has openly cited the dollars] [a IC person testifying did so a couple years ago but that was reportedly accidental] [this was recommended by the 9/11 Committee, BTW] [****] said Tuesday. That figure includes most intelligence spending, including the budget for the National Security Agency, the Central Intelligence Agency and the operation of spy satellites, but it does not include several billions that the military services spend annually on intelligence operations.

When the military spending is included, the new figure confirms that the American intelligence budget has doubled over the past decade, primarily to meet the demands of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a worldwide campaign against Al Qaeda. In 1998, the last time the intelligence budget was publicly disclosed before a 2007 law made it mandatory, it stood at $26.7 billion, [****] [the figure thrown around at the time was $30 billion] [***] and there were more F.B.I. agents working in New York City than C.I.A. officers operating around the world.

The size of the 2009 budget, under which the intelligence agencies are currently operating, remains classified. [****] [how exactly if McConnell just announced it?] [**]

Yet current and former intelligence officials said that some belt-tightening had already begun because of the economic crisis, and that further large increases in the budget were unlikely, no matter who became the next president. They said discussions under way to determine the 2010 budget reflected White House demands for greater spending restraint.

“Everyone senses we’re reaching the end of growth for the intelligence budget,” [I would think so] [the last several years have been kind to the IC] [current economic realities make similar largesse virtually impossible] [***] said Mark M. Lowenthal, a former top C.I.A. official and Congressional intelligence staff member.

Mr. Lowenthal said the intelligence budget might be vulnerable to cuts in future years, and could be more politically vulnerable than the budget for domestic security, which contains dozens of pork-barrel projects that lawmakers are loath to part with.

The Bush administration for years refused to disclose the amount that the United States spent annually to run C.I.A. stations overseas, operate satellites and conduct other intelligence activities, [in fairness, all previous administration refused to discuss how much] [***] saying that revealing the budget would give too much information to America’s enemies. But members of Congress, acting on a recommendation by the Sept. 11 commission, passed a law in 2007 requiring that the director of national intelligence disclose the intelligence budget within 30 days of the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. [****]

Besides the C.I.A.’s hugely expensive operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, where in Baghdad the agency is operating its largest overseas outpost since the Vietnam War, the C.I.A. is also trying to follow through on a presidential order to expand the ranks of its analysts and its clandestine service by 50 percent each. [***]

The C.I.A. expects to meet the goal for analysts this year, but expanding the clandestine branch requires recruiting and training new officers and building up the C.I.A.’s infrastructure abroad. So the agency, intelligence officials said, was still several years from meeting the second goal set by the White House.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Gates Suggests New Arms Deal With Russia

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803314.html
Gates Suggests New Arms Deal With Russia
Next President Should Engage Moscow on Warhead Reduction, Defense Secretary Says
By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A09 [bush white house] [sec def Gates] [bureaucracy: Pentagon and dod] [nuclear deterrence] [followup] [clearly, traditional deterrence does not work against non-state actors such as al Qaeda who a) don’t have an obvious return address; and b) embrace martyrdom] [nevertheless, the US still has traditional state enemies and deterrence, in lieu of something better, stabilizes the system of national actors] [use nsc] [use psci355, 455] [*****]
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said yesterday that he would advise the next president to seek a new nuclear arms agreement with Russia that provides for further reductions in nuclear warheads, [the current regime is to be completed by 2012] [if memory serves, it mandates a level of around 2200 on either side] [***] keeps the `

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803314.html
Gates Suggests New Arms Deal With Russia
Next President Should Engage Moscow on Warhead Reduction, Defense Secretary Says
By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A09 [bush white house] [sec def Gates] [bureaucracy: Pentagon and dod] [nuclear deterrence] [followup] [clearly, traditional deterrence does not work against non-state actors such as al Qaeda who a) don’t have an obvious return address; and b) embrace martyrdom] [nevertheless, the US still has traditional state enemies and deterrence, in lieu of something better, stabilizes the system of national actors] [use nsc] [use psci355, 455] [*****]
Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said yesterday that he would advise the next president to seek a new nuclear arms agreement with Russia that provides for further reductions in nuclear warheads, [the current regime is to be completed by 2012] [if memory serves, it mandates a level of around 2200 on either side] [***] keeps the existing verification procedures and is easy to amend in the event threats develop.

No matter who is elected president, Gates said, “there is a willingness and an ability to make deeper reductions” below the limit of 1,700 to 2,200 deployed warheads called for in a June 2003 treaty signed by President Bush and then-President Vladimir Putin. [****]”I am confident that . . . whoever is elected president, we will go to the bargaining table,” Gates said in response to a question at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he delivered a wide-ranging speech on nuclear weapons.

A new agreement, Gates said, ought to be “shorter, simpler and easier to adjust to real-world conditions than most of the strategic arms agreements that we’ve seen over the last 40 years.” [take that McCain] [****]

He also said that, should negotiators not reach agreement before the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expires in December, he was confident that the pact's provisions would be extended.

In his speech, Gates took a hard line on the need for the next Congress to move forward on the Bush administration's plan to develop and produce a new warhead. He warned of the "bleak" prospect that the roughly 4,000 older warheads in the current stockpile would no longer be safe, secure and reliable. [****] "At a certain point, it will become impossible to keep extending the life of our arsenal, especially in light of our testing moratorium," he said. [***]

The Bush plan calls for a Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW), based on a design that was tested before a 1992 moratorium on underground tests, that could be built and deployed without testing, [***]Gates added.

"To be blunt, there is absolutely no way we can maintain a credible deterrent and reduce the number of weapons in our stockpile without resorting to testing or pursuing a modernization program," [***] he said. Congress this year funded only limited design and cost studies for RRW, saying that further development would depend on the number of warheads needed in coming decades, based on the new president's nuclear strategy plan.

In response to a question, Gates said the United States "probably should" ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty "if there are adequate verification measures." But he implied that ratification should not occur without the RRW program moving ahead. [***]

Gates also described a "rudimentary start" on a dialogue with the Chinese about strategic arms, which "has to underpin a negotiation on limiting arms." [***]He said he had proposed such a discussion a year ago.

And the defense secretary said the Russian military "has shown some interest" in posting personnel at proposed U.S. missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic, as well as in creating a common data-sharing center in Moscow. [***]

Gates said he was worried that the Russians do not know the number or locations of "tens of thousands of old nuclear mines, nuclear artillery shells and so on" that might be accessed by rogue states or terrorists, [***]but he added that he has “fairly high confidence” that Russia’s strategic and tactical nuclear weapons are under control.

Iran is “determined to develop nuclear weapons at this point,” Gates said, although economic pressures imposed by the international community, along with “some kind of assurances with respect to security,” may change Tehran’s mind. “But so far, they’ve not shown much interest.” [fair to say] [***\
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Gates Gives Rationale for Expanded Deterrence

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/washington/29gates.html
October 29, 2008
Gates Gives Rationale for Expanded Deterrence
By THOM SHANKER [bush white house] [sec def Gates] [bureaucracy: Pentagon and dod] [nuclear deterrence] [followup] [clearly, traditional deterrence does not work against non-state actors such as al Qaeda who a) don’t have an obvious return address; and b) embrace martyrdom] [nevertheless, the US still has traditional state enemies and deterrence, in lieu of something better, stabilizes the system of national actors] [use nsc] [use psci355, 455] [*****]
WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Tuesday that the United States would hold “fully accountable” any country or group that helped terrorists to acquire or use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. [that is simply a restatement or reformulation of the Bush Doctrine as originally enunciated] [Bush said: the US will make no distinction between terrorists and those who harbor them] [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/washington/29gates.html
October 29, 2008
Gates Gives Rationale for Expanded Deterrence
By THOM SHANKER [bush white house] [sec def Gates] [bureaucracy: Pentagon and dod] [nuclear deterrence] [followup] [clearly, traditional deterrence does not work against non-state actors such as al Qaeda who a) don’t have an obvious return address; and b) embrace martyrdom] [nevertheless, the US still has traditional state enemies and deterrence, in lieu of something better, stabilizes the system of national actors] [use nsc] [use psci355, 455] [*****]
WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Tuesday that the United States would hold “fully accountable” any country or group that helped terrorists to acquire or use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. [that is simply a restatement or reformulation of the Bush Doctrine as originally enunciated] [Bush said: the US will make no distinction between terrorists and those who harbor them] [****]

The statement was the Bush administration’s most expansive yet in trying to articulate a vision of deterrence for the post-Sept. 11 world. It went beyond the cold war notion that a president could respond with overwhelming force against a country that directly attacked the United States or its allies with unconventional weapons. [I don’t see it as the most expansive attempt to articulate it] [they’ve said it repeatedly] [it probably has some value added coming from Secretary of Defense Gates, though] [***]

“Today we also make clear that the United States will hold any state, terrorist group or other nonstate actor or individual fully accountable for supporting or enabling terrorist efforts to obtain or use weapons of mass destruction — whether by facilitating, financing or providing expertise or safe haven for such efforts,” [hum] [how, exactly, will the US hold jihadis who transcend national borders?] [***] Mr. Gates said.

The comments came in an address in which he said it was important to modernize the nation’s nuclear arsenal as a hedge against what he described as “rising and resurgent powers” like Russia or China, as well as “rogue nations” like Iran or North Korea and international terrorists.

By declaring that those who facilitated a terrorist attack would be held “fully accountable,” Mr. Gates left the door open to diplomatic and economic responses as well as military ones. And, to be sure, the United States has acted forcefully before against those who sheltered terrorists, with the invasion of Afghanistan to oust Al Qaeda and its Taliban government supporters after the attacks of Sept. 11. [***]

His speech here before the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace was the latest signal that the administration was moving in its closing months to embrace more far-reaching notions of deterrence and self-defense. [how exactly?] [***]

On Monday, senior officials justified a weekend attack against a suspected Iraqi insurgent leader in Syria by saying the administration was operating under an expansive new definition of self-defense. The policy, officials said, provided a rationale for conventional strikes on militant targets in a sovereign nation without its consent — if that nation were unable or unwilling to halt the threat on its own.

By law, the new president must conduct a review of the nation’s nuclear posture, and Mr. Gates’s address could be viewed as advocating a specific agenda for the next occupant of the White House. [it’s called the National Security Strategy of the United States, circa] [two times the Bush administration did so: fall 2002 and again in march 2006] [as far as I know they were not compelled to do the 2006 one but chose to do it] [*****]

The first public indication that the administration was expanding the traditional view of nuclear deterrence came in a statement by President Bush in October 2006 that followed a test detonation of a nuclear device by North Korea. Mr. Bush said North Korea would be held “fully accountable” for the transfer of nuclear weapons or materials to any nation or terrorist organization. [but the NSS of US was in March 2006] [***]

The president was not as explicit then as Mr. Gates was on Tuesday in saying that the administration would extend the threat of reprisals for the transfer of nuclear weapons or materials to all countries, not just North Korea. Mr. Gates also expanded the threat to nations or groups that provide a broader range of support to terrorists.

Early this year, in a little-noticed speech at Stanford University, Stephen J. Hadley, Mr. Bush’s national security adviser, also spoke of how the president had approved an expanded deterrence policy.

In his speech Tuesday, Mr. Gates argued for modernizing the nation’s nuclear arsenal because “as long as other states have or seek nuclear weapons — and potentially can threaten us, our allies and friends — then we must have a deterrent capacity.”

Although Mr. Gates earlier this year fired the Air Force secretary and chief of staff after the discovery of shortcomings in the service’s stewardship of nuclear weapons and components, he stressed that the nuclear arsenal was “safe, secure and reliable.”

“The problem is the long-term prognosis — which I would characterize as bleak,” he said. [*****]

Veteran weapons designers and technicians are retiring, and Congress has not voted for the money to build replacement warheads for an aging arsenal that can be produced without abandoning the nation’s unilateral moratorium on nuclear tests, he said.

To that end, he endorsed a comprehensive test ban treaty if adequate verification measures could be negotiated. [***]

Mr. Gates praised efforts to reduce the number of warheads, and predicted that the United States and Russia would at some point conclude another agreement limiting their arsenals.
David E. Sanger contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

The Stevens Verdict

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702395.html
The Stevens Verdict
A proud senator falls victim to his sense of entitlement.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A16 [editorial] [senator stevens’ conviction] [one gets a sense that Dems are giddy] [he probably deserved it but I don’t like to see any senator in jail—it’s not a good symbol of clean governance] [note: don’t be surprised if Alaskans re-elect him out of spite] [****]
WE'VE HAD our differences over the years with Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, but it was difficult not to feel some sadness yesterday when the 84-year-old Republican was convicted of all seven counts of accepting more than $250,000 in gifts [****]from the

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702395.html
The Stevens Verdict
A proud senator falls victim to his sense of entitlement.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A16 [editorial] [senator stevens’ conviction] [one gets a sense that Dems are giddy] [he probably deserved it but I don’t like to see any senator in jail—it’s not a good symbol of clean governance] [note: don’t be surprised if Alaskans re-elect him out of spite] [****]
WE'VE HAD our differences over the years with Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, but it was difficult not to feel some sadness yesterday when the 84-year-old Republican was convicted of all seven counts of accepting more than $250,000 in gifts [****]from the head of an Alaska oil services company and others and failing to report them on his Senate financial disclosure forms. After a career in public service that began before Alaska was a state, and just a week before Alaska voters are to decide whether he should be elected to a seventh full term, Mr. Stevens now faces likely defeat and the prospect of jail time. And for what? The amount of freebies that Mr. Stevens accepted to renovate his Alaska "chalet" is significant, but the individual components -- a Viking grill, a vibrating Shiatsu massage lounger, a five-foot steel sculpture of migrating salmon -- underscore the petty needlessness of Mr. Stevens's crime. [it really is astounding given how much money Stevens has accumulated over time] [***]

The obstreperous Mr. Stevens fought hard for his state in ways that we have often opposed -- to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil exploration, to use his perch on the Senate Appropriations Committee to shovel hundreds of millions of dollars in pork projects to the state. [***] Now, he is likely to be remembered as one of just five senators to have been convicted of a crime. The last sitting senator to be convicted of a felony was New Jersey Democrat Harrison A. Williams Jr. in 1981, found guilty of accepting a bribe in the Abscam sting. [if I recall correctly, that involved Koreans?] [need to double check that] [***]

There is a larger lesson in the Stevens prosecution, which is the sense of entitlement to which public officials can fall prey and, perhaps among the most powerful, a sense of imperviousness to the ordinary rules. [***] [no one puts a gun to their heads] [they seek office for reasons] [***] After all, they may tell themselves, they work long hours for far less money than they could make in the private sector. After all, they have done so much for their constituents. After all, these are gifts from a friend. This is a mind-set that has been on sad display all too often in Washington in recent years, and, in truth, it is something that not even the most stringent ethics laws can fully protect against. Those who are determined to cheat the system by improperly accepting gifts and failing to report them must realize, as a spate of public corruption prosecutions has proved, that what they may justify to themselves as penny ante is in fact criminal. Mr. Stevens worked to give so much to his state, but he forgot the most important duty he owed its citizens: honest service.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Measure Those Drapes

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803040.html
Measure Those Drapes
By now, both candidates should be deep into preparations for the responsibilities one of them is about to take on.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A16 [editorial] [why either candidate should be well into planning for his transition] [despite McCain’s attempts to make it seem as though such planning is spectacularly presumptuous] [McCain has a similar cadre selected to vet should he pull off the come-from-behind victory] [****]
WE WRITE today in praise of drape-measuring. Early preparation for a presidential transition is essential to a successful launch of any presidency, and this transition will be

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803040.html
Measure Those Drapes
By now, both candidates should be deep into preparations for the responsibilities one of them is about to take on.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A16 [editorial] [why either candidate should be well into planning for his transition] [despite McCain’s attempts to make it seem as though such planning is spectacularly presumptuous] [McCain has a similar cadre selected to vet should he pull off the come-from-behind victory] [****]
WE WRITE today in praise of drape-measuring. Early preparation for a presidential transition is essential to a successful launch of any presidency, and this transition will be more challenging -- more perilous -- than any in decades. It will be the first transfer of government since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, presenting America's enemies with a tempting moment of potential vulnerability. [***] It arrives in the midst of a financial crisis and two wars. [bonus for al Qaeda] [an attack could set global economics a teeter] [***] Any new president must scramble to produce a budget shortly after taking office; this president also will have to assume management of the $700 billion (and counting) financial bailout.

The candidates are understandably reluctant to discuss the transition for fear of appearing presumptuous. Indeed, Sen. John McCain has been deriding Sen. Barack Obama for "measuring the drapes" in the Oval Office. The fact of the matter, however, is that both candidates have engaged in transition planning, Mr. Obama in what appears to be a more systematic and detailed way than Mr. McCain. [***] This is grounds for praise, not carping. As Clay Johnson, who launched George W. Bush's transition planning in spring 2000, wrote in a recent article for Public Administration Review, "It is irresponsible for anybody who could be president not to prepare to govern effectively from day one." [***] Exhibit A in how not to handle the transition is Bill Clinton, whose dawdling on filling his Cabinet and naming his White House staff contributed to the early stumbles of his presidency. [my sense is the Obama campaign is far-more disciplined that was Clinton’s] [****]

Mr. Johnson and other transition experts believe the new president should announce his chief of staff within a few days of the election and, by Thanksgiving, name his key White House, economic, national security and foreign policy officials. That will be a daunting task; no recent president-elect has followed so ambitious a timetable. As Patricia McGinnis of the Council for Excellence in Government testified last month, of the 400 Cabinet and sub-Cabinet positions that require Senate confirmation, "No more than 25 . . . have ever been confirmed within three months of any new Administration and only half within six months." Having Cabinet secretaries in place does not help much if they are home alone at their departments without confirmed deputies to assist them.

There are grounds for hope that the process will be speedier this time. A 2004 law [***]gives candidates the opportunity to submit the names of transition planners for quick security clearances, "completed by the day after the election, to the extent practicable." In addition, the president-elect may submit, the day after the election, [***]"the names of prospective nominees for high-level security positions for the cabinet and sub-cabinet." The Bush administration appears committed to assisting in a smooth transition at a difficult time; President Bush recently signed an executive order creating a Presidential Transition Coordinating Council to oversee the handoff. [as I commented at the time] [bravo for Bush] [***]

The Senate has a responsibility to act swiftly and without partisan considerations. The Sept. 11 commission recommended that it [the Senate] [***]change its rules to require a vote to confirm or reject national security nominees within 30 days of their nomination at the start of a new administration; lawmakers chose not to adopt that recommendation, but they should live up to its spirit in dealing with economic as well as national security positions. [***] A report by the Congressional Research Service found that the longest lag, however, has involved getting nominations to the Senate in the first place; of 31 positions in the Bush administration that would have been subject to the 30-day deadline, 22 were confirmed within that span, four were holdovers from the Clinton administration and just five took longer than the allotted time. Yet it took an average of 65 days for Mr. Bush to submit his nominations, and even longer, 90 days, for Mr. Clinton. Getting background checks done quickly is critical. But the country will be better off if the winner of next week's election has a firm idea now of whom he would like in key positions. [****]
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

End of the Road for Ted Stevens

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/opinion/29wed2.html
October 29, 2008
Editorial
End of the Road for Ted Stevens
[editorial] [senator stevens’ conviction] [one gets a sense that Dems are giddy] [he probably deserved it but I don’t like to see any senator in jail—it’s not a good symbol of clean governance] [note: don’t be surprised if Alaskans re-elect him out of spite] [****]
One of life’s enduring mysteries is why powerful people risk substantial reputations and careers for relatively insubstantial sums of money. Perhaps the answer is power itself [lord Acton was onto something, no?] [***] and the sense of entitlement and invulnerability it confers.

Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska has now been convicted of seven felony counts of violating federal ethics laws. His career and reputation are in tatters. Mr. Stevens still insists he is innocent, and he is imploring Alaskans to re-elect him next week. Voters there should turn him out. [I got a hunch Alaskans don’t especially think the NYTs as their ethics arbiter] [***] If they do not, the Senate must expel him.

The jury found Mr. Stevens guilty of failing to report tens of thousands of dollars in gifts and services from friends. These included an estimated $250,000 in renovations to his home in Alaska underwritten by the owner of an oil-services company and one of the state’s leading power brokers.

In his four decades in the Senate, and especially in his former role as chairman of the Appropriations Committee, Mr. Stevens dispensed untold millions of dollars worth of favors, especially to his home state. [that’s probably why they like him so much] [bringing home the pork is what it’s about, sadly] [***] He clearly felt no compunction about accepting favors in return.

He would do everyone a favor by resigning his seat and ending his campaign, and several prominent Republicans — including John McCain, and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska — have urged him to do so. [the guy is so unhinged from reality I think he truly believes what he did was no big deal] [don’t count on Stevens to resign for the sake of others] [***] So far, Mr. Stevens isn’t listening.

There is some question about whether the Senate can expel Mr. Stevens right away, in a lame-duck session after the election or whether the Ethics Committee must wait for the senator to exhaust his appeals in the federal courts before it begins expulsion hearings.

If Mr. Stevens won’t do the right thing — or if Alaska’s voters won’t do the right thing — the Senate must act as quickly as it can. As Mr. McCain said, the Alaska senator has plainly “broken his trust with the people.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803317.html
McCain and Palin Say Stevens Should Resign
By Paul Kane and Del Quentin Wilber
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A07 [societal] [another blow to the McCain clean governance image] [and Palin has notoriously makes decisions only after her wetted finger has felt the breeze] [senator stevens’ conviction] [one gets a sense that Dems are giddy] [he probably deserved it but I don’t like to see any senator in jail—it’s not a good symbol of clean governance] [note: don’t be surprised if Alaskans re-elect him out of spite] [****]
A day after he was convicted of seven felonies, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) came under increasing pressure from top Republicans to resign, even as he planned to resume campaigning for his seat today.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/opinion/29wed2.html
October 29, 2008
Editorial
End of the Road for Ted Stevens
[editorial] [senator stevens’ conviction] [one gets a sense that Dems are giddy] [he probably deserved it but I don’t like to see any senator in jail—it’s not a good symbol of clean governance] [note: don’t be surprised if Alaskans re-elect him out of spite] [****]
One of life’s enduring mysteries is why powerful people risk substantial reputations and careers for relatively insubstantial sums of money. Perhaps the answer is power itself [lord Acton was onto something, no?] [***] and the sense of entitlement and invulnerability it confers.

Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska has now been convicted of seven felony counts of violating federal ethics laws. His career and reputation are in tatters. Mr. Stevens still insists he is innocent, and he is imploring Alaskans to re-elect him next week. Voters there should turn him out. [I got a hunch Alaskans don’t especially think the NYTs as their ethics arbiter] [***] If they do not, the Senate must expel him.

The jury found Mr. Stevens guilty of failing to report tens of thousands of dollars in gifts and services from friends. These included an estimated $250,000 in renovations to his home in Alaska underwritten by the owner of an oil-services company and one of the state’s leading power brokers.

In his four decades in the Senate, and especially in his former role as chairman of the Appropriations Committee, Mr. Stevens dispensed untold millions of dollars worth of favors, especially to his home state. [that’s probably why they like him so much] [bringing home the pork is what it’s about, sadly] [***] He clearly felt no compunction about accepting favors in return.

He would do everyone a favor by resigning his seat and ending his campaign, and several prominent Republicans — including John McCain, and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska — have urged him to do so. [the guy is so unhinged from reality I think he truly believes what he did was no big deal] [don’t count on Stevens to resign for the sake of others] [***] So far, Mr. Stevens isn’t listening.

There is some question about whether the Senate can expel Mr. Stevens right away, in a lame-duck session after the election or whether the Ethics Committee must wait for the senator to exhaust his appeals in the federal courts before it begins expulsion hearings.

If Mr. Stevens won’t do the right thing — or if Alaska’s voters won’t do the right thing — the Senate must act as quickly as it can. As Mr. McCain said, the Alaska senator has plainly “broken his trust with the people.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803317.html
McCain and Palin Say Stevens Should Resign
By Paul Kane and Del Quentin Wilber
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A07 [societal] [another blow to the McCain clean governance image] [and Palin has notoriously makes decisions only after her wetted finger has felt the breeze] [senator stevens’ conviction] [one gets a sense that Dems are giddy] [he probably deserved it but I don’t like to see any senator in jail—it’s not a good symbol of clean governance] [note: don’t be surprised if Alaskans re-elect him out of spite] [****]
A day after he was convicted of seven felonies, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) came under increasing pressure from top Republicans to resign, even as he planned to resume campaigning for his seat today.

The unfolding events led to speculation in political and legal circles about whether Stevens would face prison time and whether President Bush might pardon him or commute his sentence.

Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the party's presidential nominee, and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain's running mate, said Stevens must resign because of his conviction for concealing the receipt of more than $250,000 in gifts and renovations [***] to his house in Girdwood, Alaska.

"It is clear that Senator Stevens has broken his trust with the people and that he should now step down," McCain said. [****]

Palin left open the possibility that Stevens could stand for reelection Tuesday and then resign. "Alaskans are grateful for his decades of public service, but the time has come for him to step aside. [***] Even if elected on Tuesday, Senator Stevens should step aside to allow a special election to give Alaskans a real choice of who will serve them in Congress," she said.

The Senate's Republican leader, Sen. Mitch McConnell (Ky.), told reporters that Stevens should resign or face expulsion from the Senate. [McConnell in the fight of his life] [***] "If he is reelected and the felony charge stands through the appeals process, there is zero chance that a senator with a felony conviction would not be expelled from the Senate," he told the Associated Press while campaigning in Kentucky.

But Stevens, 84, dug in for the final days of his difficult reelection contest, and the Alaska Republican Party began urging voters to back him while suggesting that he might not serve out the term.

Although the odds of a convicted felon winning reelection seem long, Stevens is considered a heroic figure in Alaska. Throughout the five-week trial, polls showed Stevens slowly catching up to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D). The race had narrowed to a near-deadlock by the time Stevens was convicted Monday.

The Alaska GOP began a campaign yesterday to convince voters that a resolution to Stevens's future could come after the election, but that backing the beleaguered incumbent would be the only way to ensure that the seat stays in Republican hands.

"Many questions are still left unanswered, but one choice is extremely clear: If Mark Begich wins this election, the state of Alaska will be stuck with a liberal senator for six years," the party said in a statement. Should Stevens win Tuesday and then step down, a special election would be held within 90 days. [***] [hum, so if Stevens resigned the result would be a special election?] [why?] [how is Alaska different than most states whose governors generally select the replacement for death-resignation?]

Stevens has given no hint of willingness to resign. "I remain a candidate for the United States Senate . . . and ask for your vote," he said in a statement Monday. Yesterday, his campaign announced the endorsement of a Native Alaskan whaling group and a retired Air Force general. [***]

Stevens was convicted of lying on financial disclosure forms to hide gifts and renovations financed by Veco, an Anchorage oil services company purchased by a Denver-based conglomerate last year, and by its chief executive, a longtime friend of Stevens.

It could be many months before Stevens is sentenced. U.S. District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan has set a Feb. 25 hearing to consider motions that Stevens's attorneys are expected to file in an effort to overturn the conviction. [and rumor is they may be successful as the prosecutors withheld exculpatory evidence, among other screwy things] [****]

Stevens faces as much as five years in prison on each of the seven counts. Under federal sentencing guidelines, he could expect a recommended prison term of about two or three years, said Douglas Berman, a law professor at Ohio State University who specializes in sentencing policy.

Berman said that in determining Stevens's sentence under the guidelines, Sullivan may take into account that Stevens went to trial rather than pleading guilty and has blamed prosecutorial misconduct for his conviction. [***] It also is clear that the jury did not believe Stevens's testimony that his family paid every bill he received and that he did not request many of the gifts or renovations.

"The jury came back and concluded beyond reasonable doubt that he was not telling the truth," Berman said. "That works against him."

Stevens could seek a pardon from Bush before he nears sentencing. Bush also can delay court proceedings, such as sentencing, and commute sentences, according to legal scholars. [***] [why on earth would Bush pardon him?]

Bush also could offer a conditional pardon, requiring, for example, that Stevens give up his Senate seat in exchange for clemency.
The White House said Monday that it would not comment because Stevens's case had not concluded.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Chinese Central Bank Trims Its Interest Rates

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/business/worldbusiness/30yuan.html
October 30, 2008
Chinese Central Bank Trims Its Interest Rates
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [China] [PRC] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
BEIJING — China cut key interest rates for the third time in six weeks on Wednesday in a bid to spur growth amid fears of a global recession that would hit its vital exports.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/business/worldbusiness/30yuan.html
October 30, 2008
Chinese Central Bank Trims Its Interest Rates
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [China] [PRC] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
BEIJING — China cut key interest rates for the third time in six weeks on Wednesday in a bid to spur growth amid fears of a global recession that would hit its vital exports.

China trimmed the rate on a one-year loan by 0.27 percentage points to 6.66 percent, adding to official efforts to revive slowing economic growth and help struggling exporters.

The country’s central bank also said in a statement that it had lowered the rate on one-year fixed deposits to 3.60 percent from 3.87 percent. Both cuts are effective from Thursday.

The cuts come as the Federal Reserve and European central banks scramble to cut rates to shore up investor confidence.

China has been largely unaffected by the credit crisis that crippled Western banks and roiled global markets, and is more concerned about a longer-term downturn in economic growth.

Economists have cut growth forecasts for China this year to as low as 9 percent, down from last year’s 11.9 percent. That would be the highest rate for any major country, but communist leaders want to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses, which could fuel political tensions.

China also cut rates on Oct. 8 and on Sept. 15.

Chinese stock markets closed before the rate cut was announced. Chinese shares fell back Wednesday, as a brief-lived rally fizzled amid a resurgence of pessimism over the economic outlook. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index shed 2.94 percent to 1,719.81 points. It had gained 2.8 percent on Tuesday, tracking a regional recovery. [**]

China’s changes in interest rates and reserve levels usually are much smaller than those of other major economies. Economists say they have little direct effect on credit and are meant as signals to banks to curb or loosen lending.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Colombia: Rebels Agree to Talks

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/americas/29briefs-REBELSAGREET_BRF.html
October 29, 2008
World Briefing | The Americas
Colombia: Rebels Agree to Talks
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE [Colombia] [SAmerica] [Latin America] [everybody has speculated on al Qaeda’s and others’ dabblings in drug money] [FARC has taken body blow after body blow] [possibly signs of eventual way out?] [*****]
Leftist guerrillas agreed on Tuesday to meet with 150 prominent Colombians to discuss a possible release of hostages in their custody. The meeting had been suggested in September by the group, which includes intellectuals, politicians, journalists and leaders

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/americas/29briefs-REBELSAGREET_BRF.html
October 29, 2008
World Briefing | The Americas
Colombia: Rebels Agree to Talks
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE [Colombia] [SAmerica] [Latin America] [everybody has speculated on al Qaeda’s and others’ dabblings in drug money] [FARC has taken body blow after body blow] [possibly signs of eventual way out?] [*****]
Leftist guerrillas agreed on Tuesday to meet with 150 prominent Colombians to discuss a possible release of hostages in their custody. The meeting had been suggested in September by the group, which includes intellectuals, politicians, journalists and leaders from social services organizations. A response from the rebels, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, was posted on a pro-rebel Web site. “This letter is the beginning of an exchange,” the statement said, “to discuss the issues surrounding a political end to the conflict, the humanitarian exchange and peace.” [****]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

U.N. Blocked From Pulling Workers Out of Congo

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/africa/29congo.html
October 29, 2008
U.N. Blocked From Pulling Workers Out of Congo
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and NEIL MACFARQUHAR [Congo] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [the UN has had horrible record in Congo] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved] [******]
NAIROBI, Kenya — With rebels closing in and artillery shells raining down, the United Nations said it decided on Tuesday to extract its aid workers who were holed up in the eastern Congolese village of Rutshuru.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/africa/29congo.html
October 29, 2008
U.N. Blocked From Pulling Workers Out of Congo
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and NEIL MACFARQUHAR [Congo] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [the UN has had horrible record in Congo] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved] [******]
NAIROBI, Kenya — With rebels closing in and artillery shells raining down, the United Nations said it decided on Tuesday to extract its aid workers who were holed up in the eastern Congolese village of Rutshuru.

But the attempt to evacuate roughly 50 aid workers trapped in the battle zone deep in the forest was halted after furious villagers attacked the armed convoy and blocked the road, United Nations officials said. In the melee, even Congolese government forces fired on the convoy, the officials said.

“The situation was very chaotic,” said Ivo Brandau, a United Nations spokesman in Kinshasa, Congo’s capital. “The convoy had to turn back.”

United Nations troops deployed helicopters and established infantry lines to try to prevent the rebels from overrunning Rutshuru and from reaching Goma, the provincial capital, said Alan Doss, the top United Nations official in the country. The rebels were breaking up into small groups to try to get around the United Nations forces, he said, but the peacekeepers were determined to try to repulse any attack on Goma, if it came.

The situation has deteriorated over the past three days in eastern Congo. Mr. Doss said the peacekeeping troops were overstretched in trying to protect the civilian population, which is caught in the middle of vicious fighting between a rebel group and the Congolese Army. In many areas, aid operations have ground to a halt. Hundreds of thousands of people are trying to flee, but it seems to be getting harder and harder to reach them.

“We have about 15 trucks loaded with food, and they can’t move,” said Marcus Prior, a spokesman for the United Nations World Food Program in Nairobi.

Mobs of civilians stoned the bases of United Nations forces in both Goma and Rutshuru. One civilian was killed Monday by a stray bullet when United Nations soldiers fired over the heads of the protesters trying to overrun the Goma base, Mr. Doss said from Kinshasa.

Mr. Doss, the representative of Secretary General Ban Ki-moon in Congo, said he understood the civilian frustration, and he urged diplomatic efforts to get all groups together for talks.

“We cannot have a soldier behind every tree, in every field, on every road and in every market; it is impossible,” he said, adding that United Nations forces had been trying to explain to the civilians that by besieging the bases they were slowing efforts to attack the hostile forces.

In New York on Tuesday, the United Nations Security Council strongly condemned the offensive and called for a cease-fire.

Mr. Doss appeared before the Security Council this month, pleading for an increase in the 17,000 troops he has spread out all over the country, with about 6,000 in the area around Goma.

The fighting near Goma had made it too dangerous to distribute food in the rural areas, said Mr. Prior, the food program spokesman. In Goma, operations had been suspended because of the level of hostility against the United Nations.

Eastern Congo has been plagued by violence and insecurity for years and is home to the largest United Nations peacekeeping mission in the world. But the peacekeepers have seemed unable to stop one man, Laurent Nkunda, a renegade Congolese general, who is leading the rebel charge on Goma.

For the past several weeks, Mr. Nkunda’s troops have been gobbling up territory and forcing the Congolese government’s forces to retreat. They are now within 10 miles of Goma, and they are employing new hit-and-run tactics that seem to be frustrating the United Nations peacekeepers who are working with the Congolese military to beat back the rebels.

The fighting has driven villagers to look for a safe place to hide. Mr. Doss estimated that 100,000 had been displaced in the past few days, although estimates of new displacements were difficult amid people who had moved two and three times.

Juliette Prodhan, the country director for Oxfam’s aid programs in Congo, said the volume of people on the road had increased from a few hundred trudging toward Goma to more than 20,000. “There is widespread fear and panic,” she said.

Jeffrey Gettleman reported from Nairobi, and Neil MacFarquhar from the United Nations.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Sri Lanka: Rebels Cut Power

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/asia/29briefs-REBELSCUTPOW_BRF.html
October 29, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
Sri Lanka: Rebels Cut Power
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [sri lanka] [south asia] [ongoing war between Tamil Tigers and Sinhalese govt—past 30 years or so] [recent flareup has seen some new lows in attacks] [Westerners have tended to be hands off] [a case of usually out-of-sight, out-of-mind] [post-CW intensification of nationalism loosely defined] [in truth, I have rarely archived articles on this horrible mess] [mostly because it’s so rooted in the CW and I haven’t covered old CW dynamics as much as more recent phenomena] [however, with re-emergence of geopolitics, I probably should cover better] [*****]
Sri Lankan rebels staged a brazen airstrike on Tuesday on a power station on the outskirts of Colombo, the capital, plunging the city into darkness, above. The attack demonstrated that the rebels, the Tamil Tigers, could strike even while an army

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/asia/29briefs-REBELSCUTPOW_BRF.html
October 29, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
Sri Lanka: Rebels Cut Power
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [sri lanka] [south asia] [ongoing war between Tamil Tigers and Sinhalese govt—past 30 years or so] [recent flareup has seen some new lows in attacks] [Westerners have tended to be hands off] [a case of usually out-of-sight, out-of-mind] [post-CW intensification of nationalism loosely defined] [in truth, I have rarely archived articles on this horrible mess] [mostly because it’s so rooted in the CW and I haven’t covered old CW dynamics as much as more recent phenomena] [however, with re-emergence of geopolitics, I probably should cover better] [*****]
Sri Lankan rebels staged a brazen airstrike on Tuesday on a power station on the outskirts of Colombo, the capital, plunging the city into darkness, above. The attack demonstrated that the rebels, the Tamil Tigers, could strike even while an army offensive pushed deep into the area they control in the north. The government has vowed to destroy the rebels by the end of the year and end a civil war that has endured for a quarter-century. Meanwhile, a pro-rebel Web site accused the Sri Lanka Air Force of killing three people on Tuesday with a strike on a town in the north.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Ukraine: Concern About Russia

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/europe/29briefs-CONCERNABOUT_BRF.html
October 29, 2008
World Briefing | Europe
Ukraine: Concern About Russia
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE [Ukraine] [former USSR] [followup] [Yushenko who tilts West has fallen on hard times] [it appears some of his trouble are of his own doing] [but his opposition which leans toward Russia has been after his head since the “Orange” revolution of 2004] [now collapsed] [followup] [none of this bodes particularly well for Ukraine] [Ukraine on the brink and this will test whether the 3 principals in Ukraine’s political dynasty can work together in the face of global economic meltdown?] [is Ukriane’s recent decision to end Russian leases in Black Sea sustainable?] [*****]
Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner of France said Tuesday that Moscow had been

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/europe/29briefs-CONCERNABOUT_BRF.html
October 29, 2008
World Briefing | Europe
Ukraine: Concern About Russia
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE [Ukraine] [former USSR] [followup] [Yushenko who tilts West has fallen on hard times] [it appears some of his trouble are of his own doing] [but his opposition which leans toward Russia has been after his head since the “Orange” revolution of 2004] [now collapsed] [followup] [none of this bodes particularly well for Ukraine] [Ukraine on the brink and this will test whether the 3 principals in Ukraine’s political dynasty can work together in the face of global economic meltdown?] [is Ukriane’s recent decision to end Russian leases in Black Sea sustainable?] [*****]
Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner of France said Tuesday that Moscow had been issuing Russian passports in Crimea, a region in southern Ukraine where Russia’s Black Sea fleet is based. “We all know that they are handing out Russian passports over there,” Mr. Kouchner said in an interview with Kommersant, a Russian online newspaper. The government of Ukraine has said it wants the fleet to leave the Crimean base in Sevastopol when its lease runs out in 2017. But the Russian naval authorities have indicated that they want to retain the base. [****]Mr. Kouchner said Russia might try to make advances in Crimea after the success of its military operations in Georgia in August.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Russia Seeks to Trade Oil for Loans From China

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/europe/29russia.html
October 29, 2008
Russia Seeks to Trade Oil for Loans From China
By ANDREW E. KRAMER [Russia] [former USSR] [Vlad and his proclivities represent a lot of Russians who don’t care for the way the world has changed since 1991] [mostly understandable and Russia ethos] [use ir text] [use psci350] [it’s larger than Kremlin] [when Putin has mayors doing his bidding, it’s a pretty broad agreement] [however, with oil’s price dropping, Russia forced to do some creative bartering] [Russia asking China for help!] [incredible] [so has the US] [*****]
MOSCOW — As credit streams from troubled Western banks dry up in the financial crisis, Russian oil companies are negotiating multibillion-dollar loans from a more reliable source: the cash-rich Chinese government.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/europe/29russia.html
October 29, 2008
Russia Seeks to Trade Oil for Loans From China
By ANDREW E. KRAMER [Russia] [former USSR] [Vlad and his proclivities represent a lot of Russians who don’t care for the way the world has changed since 1991] [mostly understandable and Russia ethos] [use ir text] [use psci350] [it’s larger than Kremlin] [when Putin has mayors doing his bidding, it’s a pretty broad agreement] [however, with oil’s price dropping, Russia forced to do some creative bartering] [Russia asking China for help!] [incredible] [so has the US] [*****]
MOSCOW — As credit streams from troubled Western banks dry up in the financial crisis, Russian oil companies are negotiating multibillion-dollar loans from a more reliable source: the cash-rich Chinese government.

Under a proposed loans-for-oil deal, reported by Reuters on Monday, Russian oil companies would borrow $20 billion to $30 billion from Beijing. In return, they would export about two billion barrels of oil to China over the next 20 years.

The Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao, was in Moscow on Tuesday for talks with Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin, but there was no indication that the deal had been signed. The agreement would commit Russian companies to redirect some of their energy exports to the East at a time when Russian and Chinese leaders have been saying they would like to see greater integration of their economies, and Russia’s relations with the West are at a low point.

It would also offer a prime example of the way the financial crisis is realigning global commerce, directing it away from reliance on Wall Street lending and toward China and Japan, with their enormous cash reserves.

It was unclear how close Russia and China were to an agreement. A planned pipeline to China, a spur of a trans-Siberian pipeline that is under construction, would be capable of carrying about 300,000 barrels of oil a day.

On Tuesday, the countries agreed only to build the spur, from the Russian town of Skovorodino to the Chinese border, at a cost of about $800 million. How much oil will flow through the pipeline, and at what cost per barrel, have been matters of contention for some time and have yet to be resolved.

There is little doubt that the crushing cash needs of the Russian oil companies helped narrow the differences. Much of the companies’ revenue during the recent spike in oil prices went to taxes. As a result, the state oil company Rosneft owes about $21 billion to Western banks and has already been confronted with demands from creditors for early repayment.

China, after years of piling up trade surpluses with the United States, is awash in cash, with currency reserves of $1.9 trillion, the largest in the world.

The Russian government, which also has a healthy cash reserve, has pledged $9 billion in loans to its country’s oil companies, but that does not begin to cover their cash needs, which include the enormous sums needed to expand into the more expensive and remote fields in Siberia.

Mr. Wen and Mr. Putin also discussed relying on rubles and yuan in bilateral trade, rather than on dollars. Mr. Putin is an advocate of reducing the dollar’s role in international commerce. “At the moment the world, which is based on the dollar, is suffering serious problems,” [****]he said.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Slowdown in Persian Gulf Reverberates in Middle East

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29mideast.html
October 29, 2008
Slowdown in Persian Gulf Reverberates in Middle East
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN [Persian or Arab Gulf] [Emirates and other Gulf states] [once thought somewhat immune from globalized economy] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
CAIRO — For many of the financially strapped nations of the Middle East, the oil-rich countries of the Persian Gulf have served for years as an economic lifeline, providing jobs for their citizens, who in turn sent millions of dollars back home; tourists, who filled their hotels when Westerners were reluctant to visit; direct investment; and the kind of checkbook diplomacy that has helped stabilize an often volatile region. [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29mideast.html
October 29, 2008
Slowdown in Persian Gulf Reverberates in Middle East
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN [Persian or Arab Gulf] [Emirates and other Gulf states] [once thought somewhat immune from globalized economy] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
CAIRO — For many of the financially strapped nations of the Middle East, the oil-rich countries of the Persian Gulf have served for years as an economic lifeline, providing jobs for their citizens, who in turn sent millions of dollars back home; tourists, who filled their hotels when Westerners were reluctant to visit; direct investment; and the kind of checkbook diplomacy that has helped stabilize an often volatile region. [****]

Suddenly, that lifeline appears frayed, dangerously so for countries like Egypt and Jordan, as the energy-rich nations find themselves pulled into the global financial crisis and undermined by dropping oil prices. Across the Persian Gulf, stock markets are down, causing panic among investors. Even in the boomtown of Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the once-mighty real estate market has cooled as access to credit has tightened.

Governments across the region have intervened.

The United Arab Emirates injected $32 billion into its banking system and guaranteed bank deposits. Saudi Arabia has offered billions of dollars to make loans available to its citizens. And Kuwait, which had already cut its benchmark rate, [***]this week moved to prop up its second largest bank.

But the era of sky-high oil prices, while now a memory, left most of the region’s capitals with enough cash reserves to cushion the blow, economists and financial experts in the region said. [****]And as long as oil sells for more than $55 a barrel, most of the governments will take in more than they have allocated in their budgets, [***] regional analysts said.

“We are not calling for a recession in the gulf,” said Marios Maratheftis, regional head of research for Standard Chartered Bank in Dubai. “We are looking at a slowdown.”

But a slowdown in the Persian Gulf might feel like a crash landing in places like Egypt, Jordan and Syria, where gulf money has helped prop up strained economies. [***]

“When there is growth in the gulf, there will be growth in the whole Arab world,” said Rashad Abdou, a professor of economics and international finance at Cairo University. “There would be more tourism, more money in the stock market, more investments. And the opposite is true. With a shrinking or recession, they will not come for tourism, they will not put their money in the stock market, they will not invest and they will not be able to hire Egyptian workers.”

Egypt receives about half of its $6 billion in annual remittances from more than two million citizens living and working in the Persian Gulf area, while about 60 percent of its tourists come from that region, [***]Egyptian economists estimated. Syria has benefited from gulf investments in large real estate projects, helping offset some of the isolation imposed by United States sanctions. Jordan receives about $2 billion annually in remittances from workers in the Persian Gulf and takes in about $500 million in financial aid from Saudi Arabia alone.

“I expect investments from the gulf to slow down or stop because they have to deal with their own problems before they invest in other countries,” said Nabil Samman, an economist who runs the Damascus-based Center for Research and Documentation. “Syria will be affected in terms of the Syrian people who send money from the gulf. There are close to a million Syrians in the gulf area.”

Extravagant oil wealth has helped transform not only the Persian Gulf nations on which it was bestowed but also the greater Arab world. Egypt, once the cultural and political capital of a region that stretched from Morocco to Iraq, has taken a back seat to the petro-fueled economies and politics of places like Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

The Persian Gulf states took on an aura of invincibility, especially as oil prices crested this summer near $150 a barrel. And even as the financial crisis spread from the United States to Europe and into Asia, there was a feeling in the Middle East that oil-rich nations would be spared. But then the price of oil began to drop, precipitously, revealing a financial anatomy in many nations that was far from invincible.

Sparkling Dubai was powered by the greatest construction boom in Middle Eastern history. But it was a dream built on a promissory note. Debt increased 49 percent from 2007 to 2008, so when the credit crisis came it hit Dubai hard, [***]financial experts there said.

Dubai had to turn to the government of the United Arab Emirates for an injection of capital to keep its banks afloat. Optimists are hoping that the cooling of Dubai’s overheated real estate market will ultimately have a positive effect on the emirate, though they recognized it would not be without pain.

“The subprime crisis, which started in the U.S. in 2007, has developed into a full-blown international crisis with potentially severe consequences for the G.C.C. countries and their growth models,” [***]Eckart Woertz, an economist at the Gulf Research Center, wrote in a report issued this month. The G.C.C., or Gulf Cooperation Council, is a regional association that includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain.

On Sunday, Kuwait suspended trading in shares of its second largest bank, Gulf Bank, after a customer defaulted on a derivatives contract costing the bank hundreds of millions of dollars. That further spooked the equities market in Kuwait, where the main index has dropped 19 percent for the year.

“Every single person who has $100,000, which is to say, 20,000 dinars, is really involved in this,” Suleiman al-Mutawa, a former planning minister in Kuwait, said of those invested in stocks. “It adds up to family budgets, to family expenditures, to vacations, hence people are upset.”

But Kuwait has done well compared with Saudi Arabia, where the main stock index has lost half its value since the start of the year.

While the G.C.C. wrestles with its growing problems, its neighbors anxiously await the potential fallout from next door. There are signs that the pain is spreading.

In Cairo, Karim Hussein, 27, has worked for the last three years in offices that arrange work visas for Egyptians looking for employment in the Emirates. He said in the past they would get requests for up to 70 visas a month. Now they get 10, he said, “if we get anything at all.”

In Amman, Jordan, Manal Saleh, 35, works for a company that sends skilled workers to the Persian Gulf. She said opportunities there have dropped by about half since the start of the year. “In light of the financial situation, demand has shrunk,” she said.
Mona el-Naggar contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Armored Against Turmoil, Lebanon Lures Investors

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29lebanon.html
October 29, 2008
Armored Against Turmoil, Lebanon Lures Investors
By ROBERT F. WORTH [Lebanon] [the poltical mess since the 2005 assasination of Hariri] [Syria’s long-term designs on Lebanon] [Hezbollah, Fath al Islam, or others?] [followup] [it’s starting to devolve again in Lebanon] [meanwhile, Lebanon being buffeted by global economic meltdown]] [******]
BEIRUT, Lebanon — As financial panic spreads across the globe, some investors are moving their money to an unlikely place: Lebanon.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29lebanon.html
October 29, 2008
Armored Against Turmoil, Lebanon Lures Investors
By ROBERT F. WORTH [Lebanon] [the poltical mess since the 2005 assasination of Hariri] [Syria’s long-term designs on Lebanon] [Hezbollah, Fath al Islam, or others?] [followup] [it’s starting to devolve again in Lebanon] [meanwhile, Lebanon being buffeted by global economic meltdown]] [******]
BEIRUT, Lebanon — As financial panic spreads across the globe, some investors are moving their money to an unlikely place: Lebanon.

This small country, chronically battered by war, turns out to have a banking sector that has so far been a beacon of stability and growth. Its banks are posting record profits, aided by conservative central bank policies, skillful management and money from Lebanese expatriates. [****] [who knew?] [park your money in Lebanon]

Lebanon’s very instability — its 15-year civil war and frequent political crises — appears to have bred the banking sector’s fiscal prudence, analysts say.

Three years ago the central bank here barred investments in derivatives and other structured financial products, giving banks virtual immunity to the widening financial contagion. The banks here have done little borrowing on international markets. Deposits account for about 83 percent of their assets, making them among the most liquid in the world.

“The banks here are used to turmoil,” [that’s certainly true] [***] said Nassib Ghobril, the head of economic research and analysis for Byblos Bank, the country’s third largest. “Since the end of the civil war in 1990, there has been no loss of deposits, and there’s great confidence in the sector.”

As of August, the money flowing into deposits grew 16 percent over 2007 — itself a record year. Lebanon had no working government for most of that period, and at times seemed to be on the verge of civil war.

Those inflows appear to be rising further. The central bank released statistics showing that it increased its foreign assets by $572 million in the first two weeks of October, possibly a sign that foreign deposits are growing.

Lebanon has also attracted the hedge fund industry, which has until now focused more on Persian Gulf markets. “We consider the well-capitalized Lebanese banks as safe as the safer banks in the gulf,” said Florence Eid, the regional managing director for Passport Capital, a hedge fund based in San Francisco.

An added asset is Lebanon’s often wealthy expatriates. About 4 million Lebanese live in the country, but an estimated 12 million live abroad, and many send money home and invest in real estate. The total of such remittances is expected to top last year’s, $5.5 billion, one of the world’s highest per capita rates.

Partly for that reason, banks here have grown so large that they dwarf the national economy. Lebanese bank assets are about $100 billion, in a country with a $25 billion gross domestic product, said Marwan Barakat, in charge of research at Bank Audi, the country’s largest lender.

This growth has allowed the banks to expand internationally. Bank Audi, for example, now has branches in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Qatar and Sudan. [***]

The continued growth here is probably also related to some modest good news in politics. In May, after 18 months of deadlock, Lebanon’s warring factions agreed to a compromise. So far, the deal seems to be holding. But the banks are also doing their part, holding much of Lebanon’s $45.4 billion public debt.

“In this crisis, governments in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere have been stepping in to rescue their banking sectors,” Mr. Ghobril said. “Whereas in Lebanon the sector is so large it has been supporting the state for years.”

Souad Mekhennet contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

In World’s Largest Democracy, Tolerance Is a Weak Pillar

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/asia/29india.html
October 29, 2008
Memo From New Delhi
In World’s Largest Democracy, Tolerance Is a Weak Pillar
By SOMINI SENGUPTA [India] [SAsia] [subcontinent] [communal violence within and between that has led to the precipice of regional war multiple times] [but apparently Hindus proselytize as do other religions] [another reason India’s rise will be slowed though it’s probably inevitable but not as soon as some think] [use psci469b] [Indian authorities have infamously rounded up the usual Islamic suspects] [turns out Indians are less tolerant than some believed?] [followup] [****]
NEW DELHI — With national elections only months away, India is reeling from a rash of spiteful religious and ethnic clashes, prompting many in this country to ask why their vibrant, pluralistic democracy tends to encourage, rather than avert, the cruelty of neighbor against neighbor. [involves Christians, Muslims, and Hindus] [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/asia/29india.html
October 29, 2008
Memo From New Delhi
In World’s Largest Democracy, Tolerance Is a Weak Pillar
By SOMINI SENGUPTA [India] [SAsia] [subcontinent] [communal violence within and between that has led to the precipice of regional war multiple times] [but apparently Hindus proselytize as do other religions] [another reason India’s rise will be slowed though it’s probably inevitable but not as soon as some think] [use psci469b] [Indian authorities have infamously rounded up the usual Islamic suspects] [turns out Indians are less tolerant than some believed?] [followup] [****]
NEW DELHI — With national elections only months away, India is reeling from a rash of spiteful religious and ethnic clashes, prompting many in this country to ask why their vibrant, pluralistic democracy tends to encourage, rather than avert, the cruelty of neighbor against neighbor. [involves Christians, Muslims, and Hindus] [****]

Tensions are growing in several corners of the country. The latest dispute was set off in Mumbai last week, when an upstart nativist party claiming to represent Marathas, the dominant ethnic group in the state, pounced on Indians who had come from elsewhere to apply for jobs at Indian Railways. [***]

The party, which calls itself Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (roughly, the Army for the Reconstruction of Maharashtra) and has in recent months attacked northern migrants to Mumbai, wants those jobs to be set aside for local residents. [***]On Oct. 21, the police arrested the party leader, Raj Thackeray, on a charge of inciting riots, after which his supporters went on a rampage across the city and its suburbs. Much of Mumbai was shut down.

A day later, a local court released Mr. Thackeray on bail, setting off a rampage in the northern state of Bihar, the source of the migrants attacked by Mr. Thackeray’s disciples. Protesters blocked trains, wrecked railroad stations and stranded passengers [***] there and in several other parts of northern India.

Meanwhile, violence between Hindus and Muslims erupted elsewhere [***]in Mr. Thackeray’s Maharashtra State, and spread south to the state of Andhra Pradesh, where a Muslim family of six was burned to death in their home in mid-October.

Clashes between Hindus and Christians continued to sweep through eastern Orissa State. In northeastern Assam State, indigenous Bodos fought with Bengali-speaking Muslims, [****]leaving more than 50 people dead.

All the while, Indian cities remained skittish after a spate of terrorist attacks blamed largely on Islamic militants. Other factors include the longstanding Kashmir insurgency in the north and Maoist guerrillas across central India. [though apparently some of those attacks were Hindu nationalists trying to gin up anger at Muslims] [***]

The Hindustan Times recently carried a map of India, splattered with red stains to mark current trouble spots. Many more would have to be added in the two weeks since the map was published. In mid-October, speaking to the wishfully named National Integration Council, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called the rash of violence “an assault on our composite culture.”

He added, “An atmosphere of hatred and violence is being artificially generated.”

How can the world’s largest democracy fail to prevent such a fury of intolerance?

Ashis Nandy, a political psychologist and social critic, said that India was a democracy in a far more limited sense than many Indians cared to recognize. In spite of its lively and largely transparent elections, he said, some of the other basic pillars of democracy, including tolerance and respect for the rule of law, were fragile at best. [***]

Perhaps, he went on to suggest, India was gradually becoming less democratic, as a variety of small, factionalized political parties vied to mobilize their caste and ethnic constituencies. [****]National elections are expected to be held next spring, and five state elections are scheduled for November.

“Some amount of virulent, strident rhetoric, as well as violence, is becoming a deepening part of the democratic culture,” Mr. Nandy said. He described it as an inevitable danger of all large, pluralistic democracies. After all, he said, the Ku Klux Klan survives in the United States. And look at the increasingly aggressive campaign messages in the American presidential race, Mr. Nandy said.

Amartya Sen, the Indian-born Nobel Prize-winning economist who argued convincingly for the ability of democracies to prevent famine, acknowledged that those same states, including India, were far less effective at preventing sectarian strife. [****]

In the case of hunger, a lively public debate can quickly generate enough political capital to prevent famine. Stopping demagogues from fanning hostility is another matter, he said. Just having a democratically elected government, he said, is insufficient.

“The role of democracy in preventing community-based violence depends on the ability of universalist political processes to subdue the poisonous fanaticism of divisive communal thinking,” he wrote in an e-mail message. “Much will depend on the vigor of democratic politics, not just the existence of democratic institutions.”

Dipankar Gupta, a sociologist at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, said India’s leaders had become so focused on wooing votes for the next elections that they were losing sight of how to protect citizens, regardless of which caste or community they belonged to. “Religion is important,” he said. “Caste is important. Of course it’s important, but so long as it does not offend the basic principle of citizenship. In India, we have forgotten it.”

The unrest has cast a pall over October, a holy month for Hindus and Muslims alike. [****]

As Tuesday’s observance of Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights and gift-giving approached in recent days, [****] markets and temples were guarded by a phalanx of police officers and metal detectors. Islam’s holiest festival, Id al-Fitr, passed somberly earlier this month, [***] after a spate of terrorist attacks across India for which Islamic militants were largely blamed. Then, in mid-October, closed-circuit cameras kept a watchful eye over Ramlila, the epic play of good and evil re-enacted every year from the pages of Hindu mythology.

One of the most celebrated Ramlila pageants happens each year in the 15th-century walled city of Delhi, on lawns pressed hard against the Mughal era Red Fort. This year, attendance was visibly lighter and the organizers, for the first time, had arranged for a live Webcast of the play for those who were nervous about coming to a crowded fairground.

Unfolding over 10 days, Ramlila pits the clever demon Ravana — so smart that he has 10 heads — against the virtuous Ram. This evening, even Ram, played by a professional model named Honey Sawhney, 20, had to walk through a metal detector at the gates of the fairground.

Vivek Gautam, known as Vicky, this evening’s Ravana, sat on a chair with his legs splayed, his hirsute and heavy girth pouring over a shimmering black nylon dhoti at his waist. He ruminated over the troubles of the times, saying it was in keeping with what Hindu legend called the Kalayuga, or the dark age.

“It is just the start of the Kalayuga,” he warned. “Once it reaches its climax you cannot imagine what it will be like. There will be no friendships, no relationships, not even between fathers and sons, only crime.”
Ravana’s cellphone trilled. As for the strife now erupting across his country, he said cryptically, “Our own people are betraying us.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Report on Iraq Security Lists 310 Contractors

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29protect.html
October 29, 2008
Report on Iraq Security Lists 310 Contractors
By JAMES GLANZ [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
At least 310 private security companies from around the world have received contracts from United States agencies to protect American and Iraqi officials, installations, convoys and other entities in Iraq since 2003, [holy mackerel] [***] according to the most comprehensive accounting yet of the secretive and weakly regulated role that private firms have played in the conflict.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29protect.html
October 29, 2008
Report on Iraq Security Lists 310 Contractors
By JAMES GLANZ [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
At least 310 private security companies from around the world have received contracts from United States agencies to protect American and Iraqi officials, installations, convoys and other entities in Iraq since 2003, [holy mackerel] [***] according to the most comprehensive accounting yet of the secretive and weakly regulated role that private firms have played in the conflict.

A report by a federal oversight agency detailing the roster of security companies has been circulated among members of Congress and some federal agencies, and was obtained last week by The New York Times. The list, more extensive than any that had previously been disclosed, contains some familiar American companies, like Blackwater and DynCorp, but also hundreds of obscure firms from places as far-flung as Uganda, the Philippines, Cyprus, Romania and the Czech Republic.

The roster includes an American company, Agility Logistics, whose name has surfaced in a federal inquiry into improper pricing in Iraq. The company has denied wrongdoing.

Another firm, Custer Battles, was eventually barred from receiving Defense Department contracts after allegations of malfeasance.

Also on the list is a German firm, Toifor, that is better known for providing bases in Iraq with portable latrines than with security.

The Web site of another American firm on the list, Paratus Worldwide Protection, includes a blog by one of its security officers in Iraq that has entries that appear to be insensitive and potentially offensive to Muslims, as well as highly explicit photos of maimed Iraqi security contractors who apparently worked for the company.

The report by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, an independent federal agency, illustrates the complexities likely to be faced by the United States if, as expected under a security agreement being negotiated with the Iraqi government, private security contractors lose their immunity to prosecution under Iraqi law.

Even with that immunity, actions by private security firms have repeatedly had an impact on the American military and diplomatic enterprise in Iraq. Both were complicated, for example, when a Blackwater security convoy opened fire on Iraqi civilians in a central Baghdad square in September 2007. Seventeen Iraqis died in the shooting, which the company said was a lawful use of force but the Iraqi government called “deliberate murder.”

The Blackwater shooting sowed deep distrust for Western security firms among Iraqi civilians and the Iraqi government, which declared that it would make them accountable under the nation’s laws. That distrust seriously compromised the ability of United States diplomats and aid agencies, which rely heavily on private security, to move about the country and perform their jobs.

The new report shows that there are far more companies to track than previously known, with backgrounds that are far more varied than earlier disclosures had suggested. And research by the federal investigators indicates that more than five years into the conflict, there is still no central database to account for all the security companies in Iraq financed by American money.

The investigators pieced together information from individual rosters at the Pentagon, the State Department and the United States Agency for International Development, as well as several independent federal databases that track procurement and contractors. [making it virtually impossible to track] [****] The agencies alerted investigators that none of their repositories of information were believed to be 100 percent accurate.

Indeed, the Pentagon disputed some of the inspector general’s findings, saying it could confirm only 77 of the entries, involving about $5.3 billion in contracts. But by using the overlapping if incomplete databases, the investigators say they have determined that at least another 233 companies shared $662 million in additional work for guards, [***] escorts and possibly less dangerous work like computer security.

Because all of the databases are incomplete, estimates of the number of security companies and the money spent on their contracts are likely to grow, the report indicates.

None of the handful of companies contacted by The Times denied having received security contracts in Iraq.

David Westrate, a senior vice president at MVM Inc., an American security company ranked 16th in terms of the amount of money it had been paid to provide security in Iraq — about $38 million on 21 separate Pentagon contracts — said, “We cannot confirm the numbers as you’ve given them to us, but I’m not surprised that we’re in the top 20.”

Perhaps the most eye-opening aspect of the list is the variety in the types of companies listed. Agility Logistics, formerly called Public Warehousing Company, is widely known as a colossus in the business of delivering food and other supplies to troops in Iraq. [***]

As reported in December by The Wall Street Journal, the company is at the center of an investigation into improper pricing and other issues involving several companies and contracting offices in Iraq and Kuwait. The company strenuously denies that it has done anything wrong.

Surprisingly, though, the new report lists Agility as having received $183 million in 23 security contracts from the Defense Department. On Tuesday, a spokesman for the company said that he could not confirm the figures, but that the contracts had probably been won by a wholly owned subsidiary, Threat Management Group, that specializes in security, rather than by Agility.

An official at Paratus referred an e-mail request for comment to other company officials, apparently located in the Middle East, who did not immediately respond.

It was unclear from the Web site of Toifor, the German firm, where to send requests for comment on security contracts. The company’s portable latrines are commonly seen at American military bases in Iraq.
Erik Eckholm contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Iraqi Court Sentences Man to Die for Killing 3 G.I.’s

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29iraq.html
October 29, 2008
Iraqi Court Sentences Man to Die for Killing 3 G.I.’s
By ALISSA J. RUBIN [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [American’s captured and killed by insurgents] [****]
BAGHDAD — An Iraqi criminal court on Tuesday sentenced a man to death for the abduction, torture and murder of three young American soldiers on June 16, 2006, but acquitted his two co-defendants. [****]It was the first case in which an Iraqi court tried and convicted an Iraqi in the murder of an American.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29iraq.html
October 29, 2008
Iraqi Court Sentences Man to Die for Killing 3 G.I.’s
By ALISSA J. RUBIN [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [American’s captured and killed by insurgents] [****]
BAGHDAD — An Iraqi criminal court on Tuesday sentenced a man to death for the abduction, torture and murder of three young American soldiers on June 16, 2006, but acquitted his two co-defendants. [****]It was the first case in which an Iraqi court tried and convicted an Iraqi in the murder of an American.

The court found that the man, Ibrahim Karim al-Qaraghuli, 29, was part of a gang of militants operating in an area just south of Baghdad known as the Triangle of Death. He appears to have been the driver of one of the vehicles that was used in the soldiers’ abduction and torture. [***]

“It was a good, solid defensible decision,” said Col. Rafael Lara, a judge advocate who now leads the Law and Order Task Force, the American group that has worked with the Iraqis to help to revive their court system and bring forensics expertise.

“We would have liked to see all three defendants convicted,” he said.

The case provided a window both into the working of militant groups in one of the most troubled areas of Iraq and the nascent acceptance of forensic evidence by the Iraqi courts. The critical difference in the cases against the three defendants was that there was conclusive forensic evidence — fingerprints and a handprint — against the one who was convicted while there was no forensic evidence presented in court against the others.

All three were implicated by witness statements, but some of the statements were vague.

Specialist David Babineau, 25, Pfc. Kristian Menchaca, 23, and Pfc. Thomas Tucker, 25, of the First Battalion, 502nd Infantry of the 101st Airborne Division, were attacked by insurgents as they sat in their Humvee under a bridge near the Euphrates River. [***]

The attack was one chapter in a brutal history of this army unit. Just four months earlier, American soldiers from the same unit raped a 14-year-old Iraqi girl and then killed her, her parents and sister, burning the bodies afterward. [****]

Four soldiers were convicted and sentenced in the rape case and a fifth soldier was discharged from the military. A sixth had already left the military when the others were court-martialed; he is scheduled to be tried in federal court. [****]

None of the soldiers captured and killed on June 16 were among those implicated in the rape and murder case.

The Mujahedeen Shura Council, a militant Sunni group affiliated with Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a homegrown Sunni extremist group that American intelligence says is led by foreigners, claimed responsibility for the attack in a gruesome video. [***]They said it was revenge for the rape and murder of the girl and her family.

The area where the attack occurred was notorious for the presence of some of the most brutal cells of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. The area, made up of small market towns — Mahmudiya, Latifiya and Yusufiya — surrounded by farmland, is crisscrossed by irrigation canals, which were one of several places where militants would routinely dump victims’ bodies.

Starting in late 2004, kidnappings, killings and beheadings became common in the area. Spanish intelligence officers were killed there and a journalist for a French television station was kidnapped there. Hundreds of Shiites were seized, some shot to death, some beheaded, their bodies dumped where they would be found by the police or the American military and serve as a warning to others considering travel through the area.

On June 16, the three soldiers in a Humvee were left to guard a movable bridge. Although generally American Humvees travel in pairs, these three soldiers appear to have been assigned to guard duty alone. The rest of their company was stationed at least a mile or two away. A subsequent investigation resulted in reprimands for some of their commanding officers. [****]

A group of militants — one witness described as many as 40 to 50 people — besieged the Humvee. [****]Specialist Babineau was killed in the initial gunfight. Privates Menchaca and Tucker survived the onslaught, but were tortured to death over the next few hours. They were beaten and stabbed, and at least one of them was tied to the back of the pickup truck used in the attack and dragged. Private Tucker was beheaded and Private Menchaca’s throat was slit, according to accounts at the trial and to lawyers close to the case.

The chief judge, Munther Raouf Haadi, sentenced Mr. Qaraghuli to hang, but said there was a lack of evidence in the cases of the other two defendants. In a pattern typical of terrorism cases, none of the witnesses appeared in court, but only gave sworn statements. [****]

The judges questioned the five Iraqi forensics experts closely, asking each to testify after swearing on the Koran. The chief judge sounded doubtful at first about the validity of the fingerprint evidence, which was taken initially by the Americans who discovered the truck used in the abduction. They found the bloody handprints and fingerprints of Mr. Qaraghuli on the dashboard and door on the driver’s side. Iraqi forensics experts then reproduced the evidence and did their own comparisons of those prints with Mr. Qaraghuli’s.

There was also DNA evidence, according to lawyers close to the case, but the judges did not rely on that. Iraqis do not yet have the technology or expertise to gather and analyze DNA evidence themselves.

“Courts can only accept the evidence they are comfortable with,” Colonel Lara said. “The use of forensic evidence in the Iraqi system is new.” [****]

Also on Tuesday, Iraq’s cabinet asked Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki to present the United States with a set of amendments to the draft security agreement under discussion by the two countries, said Ali al-Dabbagh, the government’s spokesman. Details of the proposed amendments have not been made public.

The pact sets out the conditions for a continued American troop presence in Iraq after Dec. 31, when the United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing their presence expires.

The Iraqi government also took a somewhat sharper tone toward the United States in public comments on Tuesday on an American helicopter strike near the Syrian border town of Abu Kamal that Syria claims killed eight civilians. Syria’s cabinet closed both the American school and the American cultural center in Damascus on Tuesday in retaliation for the attack.

American officials have said that American helicopters were pursuing a known Iraqi militant, Abu Ghadiyah, who was planning an attack in Iraq, and that those killed were all militants.

In Mosul, four new police recruits were killed and four others wounded when gunmen opened fire on a bus the recruits were traveling in, a provincial security official said. The killings follow three assassinations in Mosul on Tuesday.

The city has become the center of a power struggle between the Shiite-led central government and the semiautonomous Kurdish region in the north. Violence has escalated in recent months.

Katherine Zoepf and Tariq Maher contributed reporting from Baghdad, and Iraqi employees of The New York Times from Mosul.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Iraq Seeks Changes to Security Pact

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102801037.html
Iraq Seeks Changes to Security Pact
By Mary Beth Sheridan and Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A11 [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
BAGHDAD, Oct. 28 -- The Iraqi cabinet decided Tuesday to reopen negotiations on a security pact intended to give U.S. forces the legal authority to stay in the country beyond Dec. 31, [***] [if President Bush did not see this coming he was in denial] [his own military predicted it in West Point paper] [***] further delaying an agreement that American officials had hoped to conclude by now.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102801037.html
Iraq Seeks Changes to Security Pact
By Mary Beth Sheridan and Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A11 [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
BAGHDAD, Oct. 28 -- The Iraqi cabinet decided Tuesday to reopen negotiations on a security pact intended to give U.S. forces the legal authority to stay in the country beyond Dec. 31, [***] [if President Bush did not see this coming he was in denial] [his own military predicted it in West Point paper] [***] further delaying an agreement that American officials had hoped to conclude by now.

The call for changes in the proposed accord came as the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki criticized an attack by Iraq-based U.S. forces on alleged al-Qaeda operatives inside Syria last weekend. The cabinet now wants the agreement to include language to "confirm that Iraqi land would not be the center for aggression" against its neighbors, said Planning Minister Ali Baban, who attended Tuesday's meeting.

Ministers also want the pact to grant Iraq more legal authority over U.S. soldiers accused of crimes, to harden a tentative 2011 departure date for U.S. troops and to allow Iraqi inspection of U.S. military shipments. The inspection demand, along with an explicit ban on attacks on neighboring countries, reflects concerns that the United States might launch an attack on Iran from Iraqi territory.

Bush administration officials have said repeatedly that the current text of the document, concluded just weeks ago after nearly eight months of difficult negotiations, reflects the limit of U.S. concessions. [****] White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said that the administration had not yet examined the new Iraqi proposals but that the bar for changes was "very high."

"We think that the door is pretty much shut on these negotiations," Perino said. The bilateral agreement would replace a U.N. mandate that expires at the end of this year. Failure to conclude the deal by then would put the next U.S. administration in charge of further negotiations with Iraq. [***]

Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said the cabinet's demands were necessary to preserve "Iraq's sovereignty and its most important interests," although it was unclear whether the Iraqi side would be satisfied with minor language changes or would insist on more substantive alterations. The cabinet, representing Iraq's largest political groups, must approve the document before it can be sent to parliament for a vote.

Asked what would happen if the United States rejected the demands, Baban said, "We will discuss it again, inside the cabinet." So far, only the Kurdish parties, who make up the second-biggest bloc in the 275-member parliament, have expressed support for the accord. [***]Shiite parties contesting control of provincial councils in elections scheduled for January -- including Maliki's Dawa party -- have not committed themselves, and Maliki has not taken a public stand on the agreement.

Gen. Ray Odierno, the U.S. commander in Iraq, has personally informed Iraqi officials that without bilateral legal authority, U.S. military operations here would virtually cease Jan. 1. [****]Troops would be confined to their bases, and intelligence sharing and training of Iraqi security forces would stop.

In a related development, Iraq's U.N. ambassador, Hamid al-Bayati, said that if the two governments fail to complete the agreement and Iraq decides to seek an extension of the current U.N. mandate, it will not ask for any changes in its terms. [****]

The mandate, first approved in 2004, is under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter, which authorizes one or more U.N. members to use armed force in another member's country when there are "threats to the peace, breaches of the peace, and acts of aggression." [****] [only two provisions for entering sovereign country under UN charter: article 7’s instability provision and article 5? Invitation provision] [****]It has been annually extended at Iraq's request.

Last December, when Maliki asked for another year, he said it would be Iraq's "final" request. Iraq expected, he said, that "in the future . . . the [U.N.] Security Council will be able to deal with the situation in Iraq without the need for action under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations."

Iraqis consider the U.N. mandate, which effectively gives foreign governments complete control over their own forces and operations in Iraq, an abdication of national sovereignty that should be ended. Maliki and other senior officials have said that any extension of the mandate would be outside Chapter VII and negotiated on Iraq's terms.

But Bayati, Iraq's U.N. ambassador, acknowledged in an interview this week that there is no precedent for the U.N.-authorized use of armed force outside Chapter VII.

"I don't think we can have it under any other chapter," Bayati said. The U.N. provision is the only one providing legal protections and authorities for military action. "I don't think any of the countries with forces in Iraq would be ready to have it under any other," he said. "It doesn't give them authority to fight." [SOFA is based on other article!] [***]

Any attempt to alter the terms of the current Security Council resolution, Bayati said, would delay its approval and risk missing the Dec. 31 deadline. He said he remained optimistic that the bilateral agreement would be approved in time but added that a simple Chapter VII extension could be drafted and voted by the Council within a two-week period.

While Bayati acknowledged that continuation of the current U.N. mandate would encounter the same political difficulty as the bilateral U.S. deal, he said that it would include provisions for a review by the Security Council in six months.

"It is salable," he said.
DeYoung reported from Washington. Staff writer Dan Eggen in Washington contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Syria Protests U.S. Raid To U.N., Orders Closures

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102801370.html
Syria Protests U.S. Raid To U.N., Orders Closures
By Ellen Knickmeyer
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A11 [Syria] [-ir] [more on recent news that US crossed –ir-Syria border in pursuit of foreign fighters] [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [apparently, coalition troops have slowed the passage of foreign fighters from Syria portal to trickle] [also, apparently someone decided to go to source] [question is at what level this decision was made?] [today, Syria retaliates] [****]
KUWAIT CITY, Oct. 28 -- Syria protested a deadly U.S. raid into its territory to the United Nations on Tuesday, saying those killed were "innocent civilians," and announced it was closing an American school and cultural center in its capital. [on balance, it’s better to have such centers open than closed for all parties] [****]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102801370.html
Syria Protests U.S. Raid To U.N., Orders Closures
By Ellen Knickmeyer
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A11 [Syria] [-ir] [more on recent news that US crossed –ir-Syria border in pursuit of foreign fighters] [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [apparently, coalition troops have slowed the passage of foreign fighters from Syria portal to trickle] [also, apparently someone decided to go to source] [question is at what level this decision was made?] [today, Syria retaliates] [****]
KUWAIT CITY, Oct. 28 -- Syria protested a deadly U.S. raid into its territory to the United Nations on Tuesday, saying those killed were "innocent civilians," and announced it was closing an American school and cultural center in its capital. [on balance, it’s better to have such centers open than closed for all parties] [****]

A government spokesman for Iraq, from which U.S. forces launched Sunday's raid, joined Syria in condemning the U.S. incursion. "The Iraqi government rejects U.S. aircraft bombarding posts inside Syria," spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said in Baghdad.

U.S. military officials said Monday that American forces flew by helicopter about four miles into Syria on Sunday, targeting the leader of a smuggling network used to funnel fighters, arms and money into Iraq. The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said U.S. forces shot dead several armed men and wounded or killed the targeted man, whom they identified as a leader of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq.

In a letter Tuesday to leaders of the United Nations and U.N. Security Council, Syria said the eight people killed in the raid were civilians, including a woman and one man killed with his four sons, [***]Syria's state-run news agency said. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem had said Monday that seven civilians died in the raid.

In the same letter, Syria urged Iraq to investigate the U.S. raid and said the attack came as Syria had been increasing efforts to stem the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq.

"In this regard, we refer that this unjustified act of aggression comes at a time when the Iraqi and US sides recognize Syria's efforts exerted to preserve Iraq security and prevent any illegal infiltrations into its territories," the letter said. The Syrian news agency did not specify which Syrian officials signed the communication.

Underscoring the possibility that the raid could hinder U.S. efforts to stabilize Iraq, Syria on Tuesday indefinitely postponed Syrian-Iraqi talks on regional cooperation that had been set for Nov. 12 in Baghdad.

Syria's cabinet on Tuesday ordered the closing of an American school, one of many such schools around the world that provide education in English for local and foreign children, and a cultural center linked to the U.S. Embassy. Both closings in Damascus were to stand "until further notice," [***]the state news agency said.

Syria has a small American community that includes people who travel to the country to study Arabic.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Kim Jong-Il Hospitalized but at Helm, Japan Says

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/asia/29kim.html
October 29, 2008
Kim Jong-Il Hospitalized but at Helm, Japan Says
By NORIMITSU ONISHI [DPRK] [is their dear leader in hospital from the rumored stroke or not] [if yes, recent negotiations may well presage a nasty purge as generals and others fight for top positions] [and as difficult as it may be to believe, Kim might have been a comparative “moderate”?] [another indicator that the dear leader is in ill health?] [followup from yesterday’s report out of Japan] [******]
TOKYO — Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s leader, is probably hospitalized but still capable of making decisions, Japan’s prime minister, Taro Aso, said Tuesday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/asia/29kim.html
October 29, 2008
Kim Jong-Il Hospitalized but at Helm, Japan Says
By NORIMITSU ONISHI [DPRK] [is their dear leader in hospital from the rumored stroke or not] [if yes, recent negotiations may well presage a nasty purge as generals and others fight for top positions] [and as difficult as it may be to believe, Kim might have been a comparative “moderate”?] [another indicator that the dear leader is in ill health?] [followup from yesterday’s report out of Japan] [******]
TOKYO — Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s leader, is probably hospitalized but still capable of making decisions, Japan’s prime minister, Taro Aso, said Tuesday.

Citing intelligence reports, Mr. Aso said in a parliamentary session that “there are reports he has been hospitalized.” [****]

“However, it’s not believed that he is completely incapable of making decisions,” Mr. Aso said, answering an opposition lawmaker’s question during an exchange on foreign affairs and defense.

If Mr. Kim, 66, had been incapable of decision-making, Japanese and other intelligence officials believe, “we would be seeing different developments” in North Korea, Mr. Aso said.

In a separate assessment of Mr. Kim’s health on Tuesday, the intelligence chief for South Korea’s conservative government said in a closed parliamentary session in Seoul that the leader appeared to be recovering quickly. [****]According to Yonhap News, Kim Sung-ho, the director of the National Intelligence Service, told lawmakers that the North Korean leader had recovered enough to start performing his daily duties. Previous reports said he might have suffered a stroke.

That report came the same day that North Korea threatened to reduce South Korea to “debris” if it did not stop its “smear” campaign. [****]The government was apparently enraged that Seoul had done nothing to stop human rights advocates from dropping anti-Kim leaflets from balloons flying over North Korean territory.

Although Mr. Aso did not provide further details about the North Korean leader’s condition, his comments were a rare instance of a national leader speculating publicly about Mr. Kim’s health. [***]They did not seem to relate to any domestic political considerations, but Japanese leaders were upset this month when the Bush administration removed North Korea from the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism.

Tokyo has long wanted to use the promise of removal from the terrorism list as leverage to force North Korea to be more forthcoming about the fate of Japanese citizens who were abducted many years ago. The prospect that the six-nation talks, in which Japan is participating, on dismantling the North’s nuclear program could be completed without resolving the abduction issue is anathema to the Japanese.

Mr. Kim’s health, long a topic of intense speculation outside North Korea, has been a focus of intelligence officials since he failed to attend a celebration last month of the 60th anniversary of the founding of North Korea.

American and other officials said that he had possibly suffered a stroke and was under the care of doctors in the capital, Pyongyang, raising fears about instability in the North, a nuclear power.

North Korea has denied that Mr. Kim is ill. According to North Korean media, Mr. Kim has made public appearances since his absence from last month’s celebration. But experts have raised doubts about the date of one photograph supposedly showing Mr. Kim.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Iran: American Student Held

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29briefs-AMERICANSTUD_BRF.html
October 29, 2008
World Briefing | Middle East
Iran: American Student Held
By NAZILA FATHI [iran] [domestic politics intersect foreign policy] [recently, the supreme leader gave a shout out to Ahmadinejad] [why?] [hard to know] [might be as simple as he feels Ahmadinejad too beleaguered] [might be a shot across the bow from another faction] [American student being held in Iran] [*******]
An Iranian-American graduate student from Los Angeles has been detained for nearly two weeks by the Iranian authorities, [****] a Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hassan

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29briefs-AMERICANSTUD_BRF.html
October 29, 2008
World Briefing | Middle East
Iran: American Student Held
By NAZILA FATHI [iran] [domestic politics intersect foreign policy] [recently, the supreme leader gave a shout out to Ahmadinejad] [why?] [hard to know] [might be as simple as he feels Ahmadinejad too beleaguered] [might be a shot across the bow from another faction] [American student being held in Iran] [*******]
An Iranian-American graduate student from Los Angeles has been detained for nearly two weeks by the Iranian authorities, [****] a Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hassan Ghashghavi, said Tuesday. The student, Esha Momeni, was in Iran to visit relatives and do research on women’s rights when she was arrested on Oct. 15 while driving in Tehran, according to Amnesty International. [****]Iranian officials said initially that she had been arrested for a traffic violation. But Amnesty International said that after being stopped, Ms. Momeni was taken to her relatives’ home, where her computer and research materials were confiscated. [****]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Iran Opens Naval Base Near Routes for Gulf Oil

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29iran.html
October 29, 2008
Iran Opens Naval Base Near Routes for Gulf Oil
By NAZILA FATHI [iran] [domestic politics intersect foreign policy] [recently, the supreme leader gave a shout out to Ahmadinejad] [why?] [hard to know] [might be as simple as he feels Ahmadinejad too beleaguered] [might be a shot across the bow from another faction] [this plan doubtless in the works for some time] [it’s likely to do with shipping incidents earlier this year and last year (the captured Brits, e.g.)] [it looks like recent tit for tat but probably less so than appearances suggest] [*******]
TEHRAN — Iran announced Tuesday that it had opened a naval base in the Gulf of Oman to counter any hostile forces, in what was clearly an allusion to American Navy vessels patrolling nearby. [it’s reportedly quite tense with US commanders on constant alert] [small ships used by Rev Guard buzz US warships] [it becomes too easy for a Tonkin Gulf-type event] [this just worsened it?] [on other hand, the US will have a prime target should such an event happen] [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29iran.html
October 29, 2008
Iran Opens Naval Base Near Routes for Gulf Oil
By NAZILA FATHI [iran] [domestic politics intersect foreign policy] [recently, the supreme leader gave a shout out to Ahmadinejad] [why?] [hard to know] [might be as simple as he feels Ahmadinejad too beleaguered] [might be a shot across the bow from another faction] [this plan doubtless in the works for some time] [it’s likely to do with shipping incidents earlier this year and last year (the captured Brits, e.g.)] [it looks like recent tit for tat but probably less so than appearances suggest] [*******]
TEHRAN — Iran announced Tuesday that it had opened a naval base in the Gulf of Oman to counter any hostile forces, in what was clearly an allusion to American Navy vessels patrolling nearby. [it’s reportedly quite tense with US commanders on constant alert] [small ships used by Rev Guard buzz US warships] [it becomes too easy for a Tonkin Gulf-type event] [this just worsened it?] [on other hand, the US will have a prime target should such an event happen] [****]

The announcement, reported by Iran’s Fars news agency, quoted a naval commander, Adm. Habibollah Sayyari, as saying Iran had created the base because of the presence of “nonregional forces” around the Gulf of Oman, which is the gateway to the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, vital transit routes for the area’s vast oil supplies. [**]

“We have created a new defense front in the region,” the admiral was quoted as saying. “We are capable of preventing the entry of any enemy naval forces into the strategic Persian Gulf.” [a taunt or fodder for domestic consumption?] [perhaps both] [***]

The base, opened on Monday, is in the port of Jask, 700 miles southeast of Tehran. Admiral Sayyari did not specify the type or number of warships or weapons deployed there.

Twenty percent of the world’s oil is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. It has been the focus of tension in recent months, with Iran threatening to close the strait if the country came under any military attack. [****]

The announcement from Iran came two days after American forces in neighboring Iraq crossed into Syria in a raid to stop weapons smuggling to Iraqi insurgents. [clearly, it was well in works prior to Syria] [***]

The United States military has accused Iran of smuggling weapons into Iraq, as well as running militia training camps for Iraqis, and the Syria raid increased speculation that Iran might also be subject to such incursions.

In addition, the United States, Israel and the European Union accuse Iran of operating a clandestine nuclear weapons program under the guise of peaceful uranium enrichment, an accusation that Iran has denied. There has been persistent speculation that Israel might make a pre-emptive military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Support Sought In Afghan Mission

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803856.html
Support Sought In Afghan Mission
U.S. Generals Want 20,000 New Troops
By Ann Scott Tyson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A01 [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [additionally, huge problem that NATO must get under control] [corruption hurting Karzai] [finally, top brass calling for new mixture of troops so reliance on airpower is lessened] [for counterinsurgency efforts, the ratio of troops to insurgents is quite high] [****]
U.S. commanders in Afghanistan now believe they need about 20,000 additional troops to battle a growing Taliban insurgency, as demands mount for support forces such as helicopter units, intelligence teams and engineers [they needs to sorts of fushion teams we read about a while back in WP] [***] that are critical to operating in the country's harsh terrain.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102803856.html
Support Sought In Afghan Mission
U.S. Generals Want 20,000 New Troops
By Ann Scott Tyson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A01 [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [additionally, huge problem that NATO must get under control] [corruption hurting Karzai] [finally, top brass calling for new mixture of troops so reliance on airpower is lessened] [for counterinsurgency efforts, the ratio of troops to insurgents is quite high] [****]
U.S. commanders in Afghanistan now believe they need about 20,000 additional troops to battle a growing Taliban insurgency, as demands mount for support forces such as helicopter units, intelligence teams and engineers [they needs to sorts of fushion teams we read about a while back in WP] [***] that are critical to operating in the country's harsh terrain.

The troop requests, made in recent weeks, reflect the broader struggles the U.S. military faces in the Afghan war. Fighting has intensified, particularly in the country's eastern region, where attacks are up and cross-border infiltration of insurgents from Pakistan is on the rise. U.S. troop deaths in 2008 are higher than in any other year since the conflict began in 2001.

The Pentagon has approved the deployment of one additional combat battalion and one Army brigade, or about 4,000 troops, set to arrive in Afghanistan by January. [***] Commanders have already requested three more combat brigades -- 10,500 to 12,000 troops -- but those reinforcements depend on further reductions from Iraq and are unlikely to arrive until spring or summer, [****] according to senior defense officials. Now, U.S. commanders are asking the Pentagon for 5,000 to 10,000 additional support forces to help them tackle the country's unique geographic and logistical challenges.

Afghanistan's rugged mountains, bitter winters and primitive infrastructure pose a major hurdle as the U.S. military seeks to build up its combat forces there. [***]The conditions contrast with those in Iraq, where roads, runways and built-up urban areas helped absorb nearly 30,000 U.S. forces during the troop "surge" last year.

The heavy current demands on support forces could constrain U.S. commanders in Afghanistan as they push for reinforcements. Those forces, many in the Army Reserve, have been stretched thin by officer shortages and some of the heaviest deployments in the U.S. military. In Afghanistan, where about 32,000 U.S. troops now serve, those support forces are doubly burdened because they often assist non-U.S. NATO and Afghan forces.

U.S. support troops "are in huge demand," Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli, the Army's vice chief of staff, said at a news conference this month. "Quite frankly, it's something that concerns us as we look at what is going to be required in Afghanistan to build up that infrastructure."

Afghanistan's austere environment means the military cannot simply redirect the flow of heavy, medium and light forces from Iraq, [***]said Gen. James E. Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. "We need bed-down spots for those forces, infrastructure that would support them," Cartwright said in recent testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee. "Are we to keep them in centralized enclaves? Are we going to start to get them out into the country? That means that you have to have a basing construct that allows that, and the mobility, and the communications to allow that," he said.

The pressing needs in Afghanistan include a U.S. aviation brigade with about 2,500 troops and attack and transport helicopters; three battalions of military police totaling more than 2,000 troops; as well as Army and Navy engineers, combat hospitals, bomb-clearing teams, and civil affairs and psychological operations soldiers, [better late than never?] [counter-insurgency forces being requested] [***] according to Brig. Gen. Michael S. Tucker, the top commander for day-to-day military operations in Afghanistan.

Equally essential are intelligence and surveillance capabilities, such as Predator and Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles, that provide full-motion video of the battlefield, said Tucker, deputy chief of staff of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), the NATO-led command based in Kabul.

NATO itself is "grossly under-resourced" in helicopters and intelligence equipment, [***] further taxing the United States, said a former senior military official who served in Afghanistan.

“The shortage of full-motion video reduces the amount of enemy that you can monitor; it reduces your eyes,” Tucker said. “You just can’t give me enough” intelligence-gathering gear, he added.

Insurgent violence is escalating in Afghanistan, where the toll in U.S. troop deaths has reached 150 this year, in contrast to 117 for all of 2007. Overall attacks in the country are up about 25 percent from January to October this year, compared with the same period last year, according to ISAF data.

“The Afghanistan insurgency has gotten significantly more intense,” said Michael G. Vickers, assistant secretary of defense for Special Operations, who is working on a Bush administration review of Afghanistan strategy.

The deterioration has been pronounced in eastern Afghanistan, where cross-border infiltration by insurgents from Pakistan has risen 20 to 30 percent and overall attacks have gone up by about a third since April, compared with the same period last year. At the same time, roadside bombings in the east increased 40 percent, according to Brig. Gen. Mark A. Milley, deputy commander of U.S. troops in eastern Afghanistan.

“There is no question” that insurgents have used sanctuaries in Pakistan to grow more skilled in infantry tactics such as raids, ambushes, small-arms gunfights, and the use of mortars and rockets, as well as suicide bombings, Milley said in an interview.

“Terrorists are flooding across our porous borders,” Afghan Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak said in a recent Washington speech. He said the infiltration of more-sophisticated Taliban and foreign fighters has made 2008 “the bloodiest of recent years by a significant margin.”

Meanwhile, the shortage of military resources is constraining the frequency and scope of U.S. offensive operations against insurgents. “You have to build a strategy that keeps you within the realm of your capabilities,” Tucker said in an interview. Of the requested troop increase, Tucker said, “I’d like to get it tomorrow.”

Any requests for troops must go up the military chain of command, from the senior officers in the field through Central Command and up to the military services and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates must eventually sign off on any deployments.

“When I left for Afghanistan last week, my impression was that the requirement was for a total of three brigade combat teams, not four,” Gates said at a Senate hearing in late September. “So these things change even while you’re in the air.” [****]

For soldiers in Afghanistan, who often patrol at altitudes of 10,000 feet, helicopters are vital for troop movements, medical evacuation and avoiding roadside bombs, U.S. officers said. A shortage of rotary-wing aircraft to transport U.S. and allied forces is "fundamentally one of the problems we have in Afghanistan," said Vickers, the lead strategist for the CIA's covert action campaign in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

U.S. combat engineers are already taxed and have assumed the added burden of building facilities for Afghan soldiers and police, so among the support troops in high demand are engineers who can build roads and runways and expand bases and insulate them for the harsh winters. [****]

U.S. military police, another field in short supply, are needed to conduct counterinsurgency operations and train Afghan forces, particularly the fledgling police. [***] NATO has failed to supply enough training teams, and with the planned doubling of the Afghan National Army to 134,000 by 2012, "this is just adding more to the bill," a senior U.S. military official said.

Civil affairs soldiers are also needed to support governance and development efforts, [***] but currently they are so strained by deployments that many are spending more time in the war zone than at home, Vickers said. "We need more of them," as many as double the current number, he said.

That job is essential, U.S. officers said, to help foster a functioning government. "These people of Afghanistan are virtually on their knees begging for governance . . . and we are starving ourselves trying to do that," Tucker said. "There is so much corruption. . . . There are places where people have no choice but to accept the Taliban."
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Afghans, Pakistanis Opt to Talk to Taliban

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102801834.html
Afghans, Pakistanis Opt to Talk to Taliban
Council Backs Dialogue With Insurgents
By Shaiq Hussain
Special to the Washington Post
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A12 [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [additionally, huge problem that NATO must get under control] [corruption hurting Karzai] [sadly, I’ve written about this many times] [NATO-US are now permitted to go after tribals-jihadis] [strategy has yet to catch up] [tactics driving strategy and externalities abound] [serious problem as administration is on hold in last 3 months] [meanwhile, AfPak sliding toward abyss and this situation is hastening the slide] [****]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Oct. 28 -- Pakistani and Afghan leaders on Tuesday agreed to make contact with insurgent groups, including the Taliban, [***] in a bid to end bloodshed and violence in their troubled border regions.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102801834.html
Afghans, Pakistanis Opt to Talk to Taliban
Council Backs Dialogue With Insurgents
By Shaiq Hussain
Special to the Washington Post
Wednesday, October 29, 2008; A12 [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [additionally, huge problem that NATO must get under control] [corruption hurting Karzai] [sadly, I’ve written about this many times] [NATO-US are now permitted to go after tribals-jihadis] [strategy has yet to catch up] [tactics driving strategy and externalities abound] [serious problem as administration is on hold in last 3 months] [meanwhile, AfPak sliding toward abyss and this situation is hastening the slide] [****]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Oct. 28 -- Pakistani and Afghan leaders on Tuesday agreed to make contact with insurgent groups, including the Taliban, [***] in a bid to end bloodshed and violence in their troubled border regions.

Leaders from the neighboring countries reached the decision here at the end of a two-day jirgagai, or mini-tribal council, which was attended by 50 officials and tribal elders from both sides.

The meeting was held as a follow-up to a grand tribal jirga in Kabul in August 2007. [***] "We agreed that contacts should be established with the opposition in both countries, joint contacts through the mini-tribal council," said former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah, leader of the Afghan delegation.

Abdullah said the door for negotiations was open for opposition forces in Afghanistan. [this may be the same Dr. Abdullah once associated with Northern Front?] [***]

When asked to clarify whether the opposition included the Taliban and other militant groups, Owais Ghani, the head of the Pakistani delegation and governor of the troubled North-West Frontier Province, said, "Yes, it includes all those who are involved in this conflict situation." [*****]

"We will sit, we will talk to them, they will listen to us, and we will come to some sort of solution. Without dialogue, we cannot have any sort of conclusion," Ghani said.

Both governments have wrestled in recent months with the question of how to confront a vigorous insurgency that has spilled over from the border region and threatens wide swaths of Pakistan and Afghanistan, including this capital city and the Afghan capital of Kabul. The essential question is whether to fight the insurgents, talk with them or do both at once. Government and public sentiment has been leaning lately toward negotiations.

The United States, too, has of late indicated a greater willingness to allow talks, with the goal of peeling off more moderate insurgents from those considered irreconcilable. [***]

Abdullah said the mini-jirga had recommended that both countries deny sanctuary to the terrorists and insurgent elements that are waging war against the Afghan and Pakistani governments. "There is an urgent and imperative need for dialogue and negotiations with the opposition groups in both countries, with a view to finding a peaceful settlement of the ongoing conflict," [****] read a statement released by the council. The council agreed to meet again in three months to evaluate progress.

Pakistan hosted the meeting at a time when it is confronting a grave balance-of-payments crisis. Pakistani authorities say the country has just a few weeks to raise billions of dollars in foreign loans to meet huge debt payments. [****]

To overcome the financial crunch, it is negotiating a deal with the International Monetary Fund and has approached friendly states such as the United States, China and Saudi Arabia for aid.

During a visit to the Pakistani capital on Tuesday, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Pakistan has just a "few days" to avert a financial crisis. [***]

Addressing a joint news conference here with his Pakistani counterpart, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, he said Pakistan must secure a loan from the IMF. "I hope the decision will be taken soon. It won't help to have it in six months or six weeks. Rather, we need it in the coming six days," [***]he said. "Then one can perhaps avoid the most difficult situation in Pakistan."
He said Germany would help Pakistan in reaching a deal with the IMF.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Pakistan Earthquake Kills 31

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/asia/29quake.html
October 29, 2008
Pakistan Earthquake Kills 31
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [followup ] [literal instability] [another earthquake] [US might want to offer assistance to win some PR points—and do the right thing concomitantly] [*****]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — A strong earthquake struck parts of southwestern Pakistan early Wednesday, killing at least 80 people, a government official said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/asia/29quake.html
October 29, 2008
Pakistan Earthquake Kills 31
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [followup ] [literal instability] [another earthquake] [US might want to offer assistance to win some PR points—and do the right thing concomitantly] [*****]
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — A strong earthquake struck parts of southwestern Pakistan early Wednesday, killing at least 80 people, a government official said.

Sohail ur-Rahman, a district official in Baluchistan Province, also told Dawn Television that he feared that the final death toll could be “much more.”

He said at least 500 houses had been destroyed. [this is perilously close to onset of winter] [West should help] [****]

The quake hit just after 4 a.m. in Baluchistan, a poor province bordering Afghanistan. It had a preliminary magnitude of 6.4, the United States Geological Survey reported. It was centered about 400 miles southwest of the capital, Islamabad.

Pakistan is prone to violent seismic upheavals. In October 2005, a 7.6-magnitude quake devastated Kashmir and northern Pakistan, killing about 80,000 people and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. [****]

Baluchistan is home to a long-running separatist movement but is not considered a major battleground in the fight against Taliban insurgents that plague other border regions. [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Pakistan Protests U.S. Attacks Within Its Borders

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/asia/30pstan.html
October 30, 2008
Pakistan Protests U.S. Attacks Within Its Borders
By JANE PERLEZ [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [followup ] [another example, as far as I can tell, where tactics (change in rules of engagement) is driving policy rather than strategy] [Pakistan authorities forced to publicly break with Bush administration over breaches of sovereignty] [use psci46bb] [comes as evidence that Zardari-Kiyani are beginning to employ counter-insurgency tactics] [*****]
PESHAWAR, Pakistan — The Pakistani government lodged a formal protest Wednesday against American missile attacks on Taliban and Al Qaeda militants in the nation’s tribal areas and told the American ambassador the strikes should be “stopped immediately,” [****] the Foreign Ministry said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/asia/30pstan.html
October 30, 2008
Pakistan Protests U.S. Attacks Within Its Borders
By JANE PERLEZ [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [followup ] [another example, as far as I can tell, where tactics (change in rules of engagement) is driving policy rather than strategy] [Pakistan authorities forced to publicly break with Bush administration over breaches of sovereignty] [use psci46bb] [comes as evidence that Zardari-Kiyani are beginning to employ counter-insurgency tactics] [*****]
PESHAWAR, Pakistan — The Pakistani government lodged a formal protest Wednesday against American missile attacks on Taliban and Al Qaeda militants in the nation’s tribal areas and told the American ambassador the strikes should be “stopped immediately,” [****] the Foreign Ministry said.

Ambassador Anne Patterson was summoned to the ministry two days after a missile strike by a drone aircraft in South Waziristan killed 20 people, including several local Taliban commanders.

Last Friday, a similar strike hit a religious school in North Waziristan, killing eight people, all of them militant fighters, according to local residents. There have been at least 19 American strikes against the militants in the tribal region since August.

The escalation of the missile attacks has riled the Pakistani public, and the new government led by President Asif Ali Zardari has been under pressure to distance itself from what is perceived as an American-led war on terror inside Pakistan. [****]

Many Pakistanis, including representatives of political parties in the government coalition, say they believe the increase in suicide attacks, including the bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad Sept. 20 , is a result of the American strikes. [****] [perhaps but it’s more chicken-egg than many think] [***]

In response to the opposition to the missile strikes, the government has taken several steps in the last week to show its sensitivity to the public hostility. A two-week, on-and-off parliamentary debate on how to tackle terrorism resulted in a broad resolution last Thursday that called for talks with militants who renounced violence. The resolution also said the Pakistani Army, which is fighting the militants in the Bajaur region of the tribal area, should withdraw as soon as possible, and be replaced by civilian law enforcement agencies.

On Tuesday, Afghan and Pakistani leaders pledged to seek talks with Taliban forces who lay down their weapons. [****]

In contrast to the calls for talks, the Bush administration has stepped up the missile strikes from the Predator pilotless aircraft after Taliban forces in the Pakistani tribal belt conducted increasingly lethal attacks against American and coalition forces in Afghanistan. [****] [this alone requires an AfPak policy approach rather than ad hoc approach currently in use]

The Bush administration has also expressed concern that Al Qaeda is using the ungoverned tribal areas to prepare terror attacks against the United States and Europe. [more indirect evidence of increased “chatter”] [***] A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry , Mohammed Sadiq, said that Ms. Patterson was told that the missile strikes were “counterproductive” to Pakistan’s efforts to win the allegiance of the residents of the tribal areas and to reduce their support of the militants.

“”The drone attacks have negative repercussions when the Pakistani government tries to get the support of the people in the tribal area,” Mr. Sadiq said. “They are not helping meet the objectives of the war on terror.” [***]

After Ms. Patterson left the ministry, the Pakistanis said in a statement: “It was emphasized that such attacks were a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty and should be stopped immediately.” [****]

The ambassador was last called to the Foreign Ministry to receive a protest after American Special Operations forces launched a ground raid into South Waziristan on Sept. 3. The Pakistanis said the raid resulted in the deaths of civilians, including women and children.

The chief of staff of the Pakistani Army, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, said after the ground attack that Pakistan would defend its border “at all costs.” [***]Since then, there has been no known ground incursion by the Americans.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Somalia: Rape Victim Executed

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/africa/29briefs-RAPEVICTIMEX_BRF.html
October 29, 2008
World Briefing | Africa
Somalia: Rape Victim Executed
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN [Somalia] [northern Africa] proximity to horn and south] [redoubt for various factions-actors in Somalia and elsewhere] [hydra II] [followup] [bloodbath continues in Somalia with transitional government desperate to hang on while Islamist and jihadis movements gain traction with Somalis] [seen as stabililty, if only short term] [transitional government loyalists, brigands, Islamists, clans, or jihadis] [shades of 1992 after which US sent in Marines] [shades of 2001][followup October 11] [****]
A woman was stoned to death for adultery on Monday in an Islamist-controlled region of Somalia. Somali human rights officials said the woman, 23, had been raped, but the

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/africa/29briefs-RAPEVICTIMEX_BRF.html
October 29, 2008
World Briefing | Africa
Somalia: Rape Victim Executed
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN [Somalia] [northern Africa] proximity to horn and south] [redoubt for various factions-actors in Somalia and elsewhere] [hydra II] [followup] [bloodbath continues in Somalia with transitional government desperate to hang on while Islamist and jihadis movements gain traction with Somalis] [seen as stabililty, if only short term] [transitional government loyalists, brigands, Islamists, clans, or jihadis] [shades of 1992 after which US sent in Marines] [shades of 2001][followup October 11] [****]
A woman was stoned to death for adultery on Monday in an Islamist-controlled region of Somalia. Somali human rights officials said the woman, 23, had been raped, but the Islamist authorities determined that she was guilty of adultery. She was buried up to her neck and stoned after a crowd of thousands gathered at a soccer field in the town of Kismayu, which is controlled by the Shabab, [****]a radical Islamist group.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

5 Suicide Bomb Attacks Hit Somalia

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/africa/30somalia.html
October 30, 2008
5 Suicide Bomb Attacks Hit Somalia
By MOHAMMED IBRAHIM and JEFFREY GETTLEMAN [Somalia] [northern Africa] proximity to horn and south] [redoubt for various factions-actors in Somalia and elsewhere] [hydra II] [followup] [bloodbath continues in Somalia with transitional government desperate to hang on while Islamist and jihadis movements gain traction with Somalis] [seen as stabililty, if only short term] [transitional government loyalists, brigands, Islamists, clans, or jihadis] [shades of 1992 after which US sent in Marines] [shades of 2001][followup October 11] [****]
MOGADISHU, Somalia — Suicide attacks rocked government security posts, United Nations offices and an Ethiopian consular unit in two regions of northern Somalia on Wednesday, killing or wounding dozens of people, [***] according to officials and witnesses. [so much for talking?] [***]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/world/africa/30somalia.html
October 30, 2008
5 Suicide Bomb Attacks Hit Somalia
By MOHAMMED IBRAHIM and JEFFREY GETTLEMAN [Somalia] [northern Africa] proximity to horn and south] [redoubt for various factions-actors in Somalia and elsewhere] [hydra II] [followup] [bloodbath continues in Somalia with transitional government desperate to hang on while Islamist and jihadis movements gain traction with Somalis] [seen as stabililty, if only short term] [transitional government loyalists, brigands, Islamists, clans, or jihadis] [shades of 1992 after which US sent in Marines] [shades of 2001][followup October 11] [****]
MOGADISHU, Somalia — Suicide attacks rocked government security posts, United Nations offices and an Ethiopian consular unit in two regions of northern Somalia on Wednesday, killing or wounding dozens of people, [***] according to officials and witnesses. [so much for talking?] [***]

Five suicide car bomb attackers struck within fifteen minutes in Hargeisa, the capital of breakaway Somaliland, and in Bosasso, in Puntland, [sounds like al Qaeda m.o.] [did al Qaeda central have anything to do with this?] [or have jihadis elsewhere simply picked up al Qaeda’s playbook] [****]said Faisal Hayle, a security official in Mogadishu for the transitional government of Somalia.

Several buildings were leveled by the attacks. According to Mr. Faisal, the bombers struck at around 10:30 a.m., attacking the government security offices in both Bosasso and Hargeisa, as well as an Ethiopian consulate office and a United Nations office in Hargeisa. [****]

Reuters quoted witnesses as saying the death toll from the two attacks totalled 28, at least 20 of them at the Ethiopian office in Hargeisa. [***]

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks. Mr. Faisal blamed a militant Islamic group called the Shabab, [****] which the United States considers a terrorist organization.

The Shabab has been waging a relentless war against Somalia’s weak transitional government, but most of its attacks have been confined to south-central Somalia. [***] Hargeisa, in northern Somalia, had been considered an oasis of peace and stability.

The Somaliland government has been credited with setting up a small but functioning democracy, and providing a degree of peace and safety to more than a million people.

Several United Nations agencies are based in Hargeisa.

Neighboring Puntland is a semi-autonomous area known increasingly as a center of piracy and kidnapping. [***]

In a statement on Wednesday, the United Nations Development Program said a suicide bomber had entered its compound in Hargeisa and there were known casualties and deaths but the agency gave no precise figures.

The attack may have been timed to coincide with a meeting in Nairobi, Kenya, between Somalia’s transitional leaders and foreign forces supporting them. Militant Islamic groups were not invited to the talks and organizations such as the Shabab have shunned the discussions. [****] The militant group says it wants to turn Somalia into an Islamic state and has demanded the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops.

Ethiopian forces have been backing Somalia’s transitional government and have been one of the targets of previous suicide attacks claimed by the Shabab. Last year, there were several suicide attacks on Ethiopian-Somali government army bases, but a coordinated assault with five suicide attacks in a single day was unprecedented.

Witnesses in Hargeisa said that many of the buildings that had been hit were badly damaged and dozens of people had been killed or wounded.

In the port of Bosasso, two huge blasts rocked the city as suicide bombers attacked two offices of the Puntland security forces at around 10:20 a.m., killing a woman cleaner and injuring six soldiers, [***] residents and officials said.

At a news conference after the attacks, the Puntland president, Mohamoud Mose Hersi, blamed the bombings on terrorists seeking to jeopardize Puntland’s security.

“It was two shocking blasts that we haven’t seen before,” he said, accusing outsiders of carrying out the attacks. “We know their faces and they are not Puntlanders.” [some anecdotal evidence they were foreign fighters] [***] The first bomb exploded at a security service intelligence office close to the presidential palace in Puntland, according to residents and officials. Two minutes later, another explosion hit the agency’s office in the Laanta Hawada neighborhood, killing one intelligence officer and injuring six.

Mohamoud Awale, a resident of Bosasso, said he saw a speeding car drive into one of the offices. “I was really very shocked, because I haven’t witnessed such a catastrophic event.” Mr. Awale said.

Hawa Mohamoud, a 40-year-old resident with four children, said: “When I heard the explosions, I realized that we were under attack. I don’t know where I can go with these children and it seems that our turn for the insecurity has come.”

Somaliland broke with Somalia in the early 1990s and Puntland declared itself semi-autonomous in 1998.
Mohammed Ibrahim reported from Mogadishu, Somalia. Jeffrey Gettleman reported from Nairobi, Kenya.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

October 28, 2008

Defense Lawyers Get Access To Secret Guantanamo Camp

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702955.html
Defense Lawyers Get Access To Secret Guantanamo Camp
By Peter Finn
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A08 [bush white house] [consequences of original decisions made at high NSC level] [thereafter bureaucratized] [state, DHS, DOD] [federal judiciary] [the need to get it right on both sides] [snafus on evidentiary issues at gitmo] [evidence inadmissible] [habeus issues] [difficulties in both US and Europe in effectively prosecuting jihadis or alleged jihadis] [followup] [gitmo] [more on black sites within overt ones] [use psci355, 455] [****]
A military judge has ruled that defense lawyers can inspect the mysterious Camp 7 at the detention center at Guantanamo Bay, [***]Cuba, puncturing the secrecy surrounding a facility where some of the major al-Qaeda suspects are being held.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702955.html
Defense Lawyers Get Access To Secret Guantanamo Camp
By Peter Finn
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A08 [bush white house] [consequences of original decisions made at high NSC level] [thereafter bureaucratized] [state, DHS, DOD] [federal judiciary] [the need to get it right on both sides] [snafus on evidentiary issues at gitmo] [evidence inadmissible] [habeus issues] [difficulties in both US and Europe in effectively prosecuting jihadis or alleged jihadis] [followup] [gitmo] [more on black sites within overt ones] [use psci355, 455] [****]
A military judge has ruled that defense lawyers can inspect the mysterious Camp 7 at the detention center at Guantanamo Bay, [***]Cuba, puncturing the secrecy surrounding a facility where some of the major al-Qaeda suspects are being held.

Defense lawyers said yesterday that Judge Ralph H. Kohlmann, a Marine colonel, ruled that attorneys for Ramzi Binalshibh -- an alleged liaison between the Sept. 11 hijackers and al-Qaeda's leadership in Afghanistan in the run-up to the 2001 attacks -- could visit Camp 7 and inspect the defendant's conditions of confinement as part of an inquiry into his mental health. [****]

At a hearing last month, Binalshibh's attorneys told a military court that their client is being administered a psychotropic drug normally used to treat schizophrenia. The lawyers argue that the Yemeni detainee's condition raises serious questions about his ability to stand trial on war-crimes charges and his insistence on defending himself in a capital case. [****]

Binalshibh has told the court that he is perfectly capable of defending himself and that he resented the assertion of his assigned military attorney that he might be mentally ill. [***]

The visit, yet to be scheduled, would be the first by any defense lawyer to a lockup that is guarded by a special military unit code-named Task Force Platinum. The location of Camp 7 on the 45-square-mile Guantanamo Bay base remains classified; military officials acknowledged its existence only this year, and even approaches to the facility are said to be heavily guarded.

The camp houses 16 high-value detainees, including Khalid Sheik Mohammed, the self-described operational mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks. Fourteen suspects were transferred to Guantanamo in September 2006 after being held, [**] some for years, at secret CIA detention facilities around the world. Two more suspects were subsequently transferred to Camp 7. [called black sites] [****]

The military has said that the facility was built before President Bush announced that 14 suspects were being transferred from secret prisons to Guantanamo.The CIA reportedly used Guantanamo Bay to hold suspects before September 2006. Military officials refuse to discuss what role, if any, the CIA continues to play at Camp 7.

Binalshibh's attorneys also petitioned the court last month for an independent medical evaluation of their client.

Kohlmann, over the government's objections, agreed to the Camp 7 visit. He also ruled that a clinical psychologist chosen by the defense could examine Binalshibh's classified medical records, which are thought to detail some effects of the enhanced interrogation techniques to which he was subjected while in CIA custody. [****]The psychologist will not, however, be allowed to visit Camp 7 or interview Binalshibh, as his attorneys had requested.

Navy Cmdr. Suzanne Lachelier, Binalshibh's attorney, told the court last month that she was willing to be hooded while being taken to Camp 7 if that would assuage the military's security concerns. Military officials at Guantanamo Bay say the location of the camp needs to be kept secret to prevent a terrorist attack.

Lachelier described Kohlmann's rulings yesterday but would not provide the unclassified documents because they have not been released by the court. A spokesman for the Pentagon's Office of Military Commissions said the court was preparing the rulings for release.

Human Rights Watch, a New York-based advocacy group, said in a June report that harsh, restrictive conditions at maximum-security facilities at Guantanamo Bay were contributing to a marked deterioration in the mental health of detainees. [***]The group said that "very little is known about Camp 7" but added that "to judge by the little information that is available, however, conditions at Camp 7 are even more restrictive." [trufully, I’m not especially worried about KSM’s and Binalshibh’s situations] [they have openly bragged about their roles in 9/11] [but this is not good for the US] [another in a long list where the administration has crossed the line—constitutional line—and then covered up to prevent embarrassing revelations] [****]

Attorneys for the detainees at Camp 7 are prevented by a court order from discussing their clients' medical conditions or records. But there have been some indications that detainees are experiencing mental and physical health problems.

One high-value detainee, Majid Khan, a former Baltimore resident alleged to have planned to blow up gas stations in the United States, told a military panel that he tried to kill himself by biting on one his arteries. And in a memo filed in U.S. District Court this month, Joseph Margulies, an attorney for Zayn al-Abidin Muhammed Hussein, better known by the nom de guerre Abu Zubaida, [***]said that during a visit with his client in Guantanamo in September "I felt I was talking to an elderly infirm patient whose mind was beginning to fail him."

U.S. officials have acknowledged that Abu Zubaida, 37, was subjected to waterboarding and other coercive interrogation techniques while in CIA custody. [****]

In a separate filing in a habeas corpus proceeding, Abu Zubaida's attorneys said their client has had 116 seizures since his transfer to Guantanamo. According to court papers, Abu Zubaida also told Margulies that he was injected with Haldol, normally used to treat psychosis. The use of the drug in correctional settings is controversial because of its strong side effects and the history of its use in the Soviet Union to control dissidents sent to psychiatric hospitals.

Abu Zubaida's attorneys said "the difference in his demeanor was striking" compared with previous visits.

According to court papers, Abu Zubaida once asked for copies of James Joyce's novels "Ulysses" and "A Portrait of the Artist as a Young Man." One of his attorneys, Brent Mickum, said he was able to provide him with a copy of "Ulysses" translated into Arabic.
Staff researcher Julie Tate contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Officials Say U.S. Killed an Iraqi in Raid in Syria

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/middleeast/28syria.html
October 28, 2008
Officials Say U.S. Killed an Iraqi in Raid in Syria
By ERIC SCHMITT and THOM SHANKER [bush white house] [and increasingly appears the next administration] [NSC level] [bureaucracy] [-ir war] [while negotiations over SOFA] [the administration ought to be prepared to declare a victory and withdraw US troops] [a) it’s the best thing for the –iraqi people] [and b) only when the administration calls the –Iraqi bluff will the –iraqi government seriously negotiate SOFA on terms useful to US staying–ir for a while with emergency forces] [instead, the administration seems to be doubling down with precious-little time left] [use nsc] [use psci 355, 455] [cross in external] [******]
WASHINGTON — A raid into Syria on Sunday was carried out by American Special Operations forces who killed an Iraqi militant responsible for running weapons, money and foreign fighters across the border into Iraq, American officials said Monday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/middleeast/28syria.html
October 28, 2008
Officials Say U.S. Killed an Iraqi in Raid in Syria
By ERIC SCHMITT and THOM SHANKER [bush white house] [and increasingly appears the next administration] [NSC level] [bureaucracy] [-ir war] [while negotiations over SOFA] [the administration ought to be prepared to declare a victory and withdraw US troops] [a) it’s the best thing for the –iraqi people] [and b) only when the administration calls the –Iraqi bluff will the –iraqi government seriously negotiate SOFA on terms useful to US staying–ir for a while with emergency forces] [instead, the administration seems to be doubling down with precious-little time left] [use nsc] [use psci 355, 455] [cross in external] [******]
WASHINGTON — A raid into Syria on Sunday was carried out by American Special Operations forces who killed an Iraqi militant responsible for running weapons, money and foreign fighters across the border into Iraq, American officials said Monday.

The helicopter-borne attack into Syria was by far the boldest by American commandos in the five years since the United States invaded Iraq and began to condemn Syria’s role in stoking the Iraqi insurgency.

The timing was startling, not least because American officials praised Syria in recent months for its efforts to halt traffic across the border. [****] [so why now?] [appears that the administration has simply ceased to function and is allowing tactics to rule]

But in justifying the attack, American officials said the Bush administration was determined to operate under an expansive definition of self-defense that provided a rationale for strikes on militant targets in sovereign nations without those countries’ consent.

Together with a similar American commando raid into Pakistan more than seven weeks ago, the operation on Sunday appeared to reflect an intensifying effort by the Bush administration to find a way during its waning months to attack militants even beyond the borders of Iraq and Afghanistan, where the United States is at war. [which similarly seemed driven by tactics rather than strategy] [I hope I’m wrong but I have seen no evidence that President Bush is even engaged] [*****]

Administration officials declined to say whether the emerging application of self-defense could lead to strikes against camps inside Iran that have been used to train Shiite “special groups” that have fought with the American military and Iraqi security forces.

American officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the secrecy of the raid said the mission had been mounted rapidly over the weekend on orders from the Central Intelligence Agency when the location of the man suspected of leading an insurgent cell, an Iraqi known as Abu Ghadiya, was confirmed. About two dozen American commandos in specially equipped Black Hawk helicopters swooped into the village of Sukkariyah, six miles from the Iraqi border, just before 5 p.m., and fought a brief gun battle with Abu Ghadiya and several members of his cell, the officials said.

It was unclear whether Abu Ghadiya died near his tent on the battlefield or after he was taken into American custody, one senior American official said.

One United States official described Abu Ghadiya as Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia’s “most prominent” smuggler of foreign operatives crossing the Syrian border into Iraq, and in February the Treasury Department named him as one of four major figures in that group living in Syria.

The official said Abu Ghadiya was in his late 20s and came from a family of smugglers in Anbar Province, in western Iraq. He was also suspected of having led an attack in May on a police station in western Iraq that killed 11 Iraqi officers, an American official said.

Spokesmen for the Defense Department and the C.I.A. declined to comment on the attack. On Sunday, an American military official had denied that American military helicopters had played a part in the raid.

Since the Sept. 11 attacks, the United States has attacked terrorism suspects in the ungoverned spaces of countries like Yemen and Somalia. But administration officials said Monday that the strikes in Pakistan and Syria were carried out on the basis of a legal argument that has been refined in recent months to justify strikes by troops and by rockets on militants in countries with which the United States is not at war.

The justification is different from the concept of pre-emption the administration articulated immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks, and which was used as the rationale for the invasion of Iraq. While pre-emption was used to justify attacks against governments and their armies, the self-defense argument would justify attacks on insurgents operating on foreign soil that threatened the forces, allies or interests of the United States.

Administration officials pointed Monday to a passage in President Bush’s speech to the United Nations General Assembly last month as the clearest articulation of this position to date.

“As sovereign states, we have an obligation to govern responsibly, and solve problems before they spill across borders,” Mr. Bush said. “We have an obligation to prevent our territory from being used as a sanctuary for terrorism and proliferation and human trafficking and organized crime.”

In seeking to carry out cross-border missions inside Pakistan and now in Syria, the United States government is expected to make the case that these operations will help protect the lives of American troops. It is not clear how far-reaching the White House may be in seeking to apply the rationale, but several senior American officials expressed hope that it would be embraced by the next president as well.

The American military has on occasion mounted attacks on Syrian soil to support its military operations in Iraq, but they mostly have been cross-border missile strikes, and there was a rare case of ground forces briefly crossing the frontier in hot pursuit of insurgents.

In London on Monday, Syria’s foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, accused the United States of “terrorist aggression” in the raid, in which Syria said eight civilians had been killed. A senior American official said that all the people killed in the assault were militants, and that women and children living with the militants had not been harmed.

In seeking support in international law for its actions, the Bush administration is joining a list of nations that have cited Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which enshrines the right of individual or collective self-defense to all member states.

Over the years, a growing body of legal argument has made the case that this right of self-defense allows a nation to take military action on the territory of another sovereign nation that is unable or unwilling to take measures on its own to halt the threat.

This argument was emphasized when the Israeli military mounted a hostage-rescue mission at Entebbe airport in Uganda in 1976, and similar arguments have been made to defend actions by the Colombian military against the FARC guerrillas seeking haven in neighboring countries, and Turkish troops pursuing Kurdish militants in their sanctuaries in northern Iraq.

Israel also made this argument when, in September last year, its warplanes attacked what Israel said was a nuclear reactor in Syria that was nearing operational capability.

This month, Gen. David H. Petraeus, the former top commander in Iraq, said that the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq had dwindled to less than 20 a month from a peak of more than 120 a month a year ago.

But one military officer said Monday that while Syria had been able to take specific steps like detaining combat-age men found flying into Damascus airport on one-way tickets, there had been less success in halting the flow of money and weapons to the insurgency.

The Iraqi government found itself in an awkward position on Monday as it sought at once to remain on friendly terms with Syria, which is a neighbor and now home to more than a million Iraqi refugees, but also to bolster the United States in going after people believed to be fomenting antigovernment unrest in Iraq.

“This area was a staging ground for activities by terrorist organizations hostile to Iraq,” said Ali al-Dabbagh, the Iraqi government spokesman. He said Iraq had previously requested that Syrian authorities hand over insurgents who used Syria as their base.
Mark Mazzetti contributed reporting from Washington, and Alissa J. Rubin from Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

U.S. Calls Raid a Warning to Syria

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102700511.html
U.S. Calls Raid a Warning to Syria
Copter-Borne Troops Targeted Key Iraqi Insurgent, Officials Say
By Ann Scott Tyson and Ellen Knickmeyer
Washington Post staff writers
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A01 [bush white house] [and increasingly appears the next administration] [NSC level] [bureaucracy] [-ir war] [while negotiations over SOFA] [the administration ought to be prepared to declare a victory and withdraw US troops] [a) it’s the best thing for the –iraqi people] [and b) only when the administration calls the –Iraqi bluff will the –iraqi government seriously negotiate SOFA on terms useful to US staying–ir for a while with emergency forces] [instead, the administration seems to be doubling down with precious-little time left] [use nsc] [use psci 355, 455] [******]
U.S. troops in helicopters flew four miles into Syrian territory over the weekend to target the leader of a network that channels foreign fighters from Syria into Iraq, killing or wounding him and shooting dead several armed men, U.S. officials said Monday.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102700511.html
U.S. Calls Raid a Warning to Syria
Copter-Borne Troops Targeted Key Iraqi Insurgent, Officials Say
By Ann Scott Tyson and Ellen Knickmeyer
Washington Post staff writers
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A01 [bush white house] [and increasingly appears the next administration] [NSC level] [bureaucracy] [-ir war] [while negotiations over SOFA] [the administration ought to be prepared to declare a victory and withdraw US troops] [a) it’s the best thing for the –iraqi people] [and b) only when the administration calls the –Iraqi bluff will the –iraqi government seriously negotiate SOFA on terms useful to US staying–ir for a while with emergency forces] [instead, the administration seems to be doubling down with precious-little time left] [use nsc] [use psci 355, 455] [******]
U.S. troops in helicopters flew four miles into Syrian territory over the weekend to target the leader of a network that channels foreign fighters from Syria into Iraq, killing or wounding him and shooting dead several armed men, U.S. officials said Monday.

U.S. officials have long complained that the Syrian government has allowed Arab fighters to pass through the country to enter Iraq, but since last year, top military leaders have praised Syrian efforts to curb the flow. In recent months, officials have estimated that as few as 20 fighters a month have been crossing into Iraq, down from more than a hundred a month in 2006. [***]

But officials said the raid Sunday, apparently the first acknowledged instance of U.S. ground forces operating in Syria, was intended to send a warning to the Syrian government. "You have to clean up the global threat that is in your back yard, and if you won't do that, we are left with no choice but to take these matters into our hands," said a senior U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the cross-border strike.

The United States has offered similar justifications for recent cross-border strikes in Pakistan, where it has launched missile attacks and at least one air assault against suspected members of Afghanistan's Taliban insurgency. "As targets present themselves, and are identified . . . they become more and more at risk. Just like in Pakistan, there will be steps taken to deal with it," the senior official said.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem called the operation Sunday a "criminal and terrorist aggression" that killed seven civilians. Speaking to reporters in London, he said Bush administration officials were following "the policy of cowboys" and noted that the United States has been unable to seal its own border with Mexico. [kettle meet pot] [***]

The office of French President Nicolas Sarkozy issued a statement expressing "serious concerns" about the raid and the loss of Syrian lives. Syria has lately embarked on policies that France and other Western governments have viewed favorably, including indirect peace talks with Israel. Russia also voiced concern about the operation. [let us recall the Ignatius piece a few weeks back that asserted Syria was prepared to begin to return to Arab fold] [but it required guarantees from US and France] [France made them] [apparently, Bush administration has decided no] [a shame?] [*****]

In the raid, four helicopters carrying U.S. troops flew into an isolated area of scattered residences and buildings in search of an Iraqi insurgent whom the U.S. Treasury designated in February as a key facilitator of the transfer of weapons, money and fighters into Iraq. Treasury officials gave his full name as Badran Turki Hishan al-Mazidih and his nickname as Abu Ghadiyah, and said that the founder of the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, had named him the organization's commander for Syrian logistics in 2004.

On the ground, U.S. troops disembarked and opened fire to kill "several armed males who posed a threat to U.S. forces," according to the senior official. The official declined to say whether Mazidih was killed or injured in the fighting. Other unnamed U.S. officials were quoted in news media accounts Monday as saying he had been killed.

Moualem said U.S. troops landed at a farm where they killed a father and his three children, the farm's guard and his wife, and a fisherman.

The network run by Mazidih has smuggled hundreds of foreign fighters into Iraq, including many who became suicide bombers, officials and analysts said. "He ran one of the largest and most productive foreign fighter networks out of Syria" and was "directly responsible for hundreds of foreign fighters who killed thousands" of Iraqis, the senior official said.

The U.S. military has shown patience, the official said, but "eventually you can't wait for guys like that to come back across the border and kill scores of Iraqis or, worse, your own forces." [***] [fully understandable but it smacks of force protection—tactics—driving policy] [strategy needs to be made at NSC level and that needs to drive policy] [****]

A summer 2007 U.S. military raid on a suspected al-Qaeda in Iraq house in the Iraqi town of Sinjar, near Syria, yielded a wealth of information about alleged Syrian smuggling networks used to move foreign fighters into Iraq. [so, over a year ago this was discovered and yet it’s now being used as justification?] [this doesn’t pass smell test] [*****]

The documents included al-Qaeda in Iraq records of more than 500 foreign fighters who had entered from Syria, according to the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, N.Y., where civilian analysts are examining the documents. A July report made public their latest findings.

The documents indicated that at least 95 Syrian "coordinators" were involved in moving the foreign fighters. Many of the coordinators were from smuggling families in Bedouin clans and other Syrian tribes. A number of them appeared to be cooperating with al-Qaeda in Iraq for pay rather than out of ideological sympathy.

Many recruits reported to their handlers in Iraq that they had passed through Damascus, Syria's capital, and then an area near the Iraqi border called Abu Kamal. Sunday's raid occurred in Abu Kamal. [I don’t think anybody doubts that Syria is allowing this to happen] [the question is whether the administration has any strategy or whether it’s just stopped trying as it’s too difficult?] [I fear the latter] [****]

U.S. officers long have called the Syrian smuggling routes "ratlines." American forces in western Anbar province sustained some of the highest losses of the war in 2006 and 2007, as U.S. troops fought to drive out al-Qaeda in Iraq from border towns and shut down the smuggling of fighters, weapons and money.

The "Syrian government has willingly ignored, and in some cases may have assisted, foreign fighters headed to Iraq," according to the report of the Combating Terrorism Center.

But Syria has also made some efforts to curtail the smuggling, including instances of chasing coordinators taking Libyan fighters into Iraq, according to Brian Fishman, a lead author of the report.

Certainly, "the Syrian government doesn't deserve a pass on this," he said. "But there are some things that limit their ability to act out there. The state is not as strong there as it is in other parts of the country." [agreed] [but tactics shouldn’t drive policy] [what’s the endgame here?] [is it simply to brush Syria back with high-fast pitch?] [what happens if a US troop is captured inside Syria] [it doesn’t look like anybody has thought this through and that’s what I object to] [***]

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is a member of the Alawite religious minority, ruling over a majority-Sunni country. The government varies between trying to crack down on the smuggling networks, and their Sunni al-Qaeda in Iraq partners, and simply trying to monitor them, Fishman said.

"Over the long run I think it's clear an Alawite government and an al-Qaeda-style network are not on the same side of history," Fishman said. "They're playing with fire to a certain extent."

Syria says it too has been targeted by al-Qaeda, citing a deadly bombing in Damascus this summer. [not clear who did it but it did look like somebody associated with Sunni jihadis in Lebanon, namely, Fatah al Islam] [****]

In the case of Pakistan, the United States has justified cross-border artillery and missile strikes and at least one ground raid -- a widely publicized helicopter-borne assault on Sept. 3 -- as acts of self-defense.

"We will do what is necessary to protect our troops," Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said in Senate testimony last month, when asked about the cross-border operations. Under questioning, Gates said that he was not an expert in international law but that he assumed the State Department had consulted such laws before the U.S. military was granted authority to make such strikes.

More broadly, U.S. military and intelligence officials and analysts have asserted for years that such strikes are justified if a country is unwilling or unable to control its own territory or the threats emanating from inside its borders. U.S. strikes can goad such countries into action, officials say.

The military's argument is that "you can only claim sovereignty if you enforce it," said Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "When you are dealing with states that do not maintain their sovereignty and become a de facto sanctuary, the only way you have to deal with them is this kind of operation," he said.

Knickmeyer reported from Cairo. Staff writer Karen DeYoung in Washington and correspondent Ernesto Londoño and special correspondents K.I. Ibrahim and Zaid Sabah in Baghdad contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Palin's Love Boats

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702438.html
Palin's Love Boats
By Richard Cohen
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A17 [oped] [columnist] [the making of Sarah Palin] [how the neoconservative movement was smitten] [*****]
Until two cruise ships steamed up to Alaska two summers ago, the record for the silliest statement by a journalist had been held by Lincoln Steffens, in his time a famous American radical. Sent in 1919 to see how Russia was doing under the communists, Steffens supposedly reported, "I have seen the future, and it works." In 2007, several conservative journalists got off their cruise ships and met Sarah Palin. They saw the present, and she was a babe.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702438.html
Palin's Love Boats
By Richard Cohen
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A17 [oped] [columnist] [the making of Sarah Palin] [how the neoconservative movement was smitten] [*****]
Until two cruise ships steamed up to Alaska two summers ago, the record for the silliest statement by a journalist had been held by Lincoln Steffens, in his time a famous American radical. Sent in 1919 to see how Russia was doing under the communists, Steffens supposedly reported, "I have seen the future, and it works." In 2007, several conservative journalists got off their cruise ships and met Sarah Palin. They saw the present, and she was a babe.

The cruises were sponsored by the National Review and the Weekly Standard, journals of significant influence in conservative circles. The ships disgorged some top conservative editors and writers, who on two occasions were invited at the governor's mansion. Almost to a man, they were thunderstruck.

What followed, once everyone returned to the lower 48, was a gusher of mush -- praise, love notes, sweet nothings and, altogether, the sort of mooning one does not usually hear from the likes of William Kristol, Fred Barnes, Rich Lowry, Dick Morris and my Post colleague Michael Gerson. In short order, important writers set themselves the task, in print and on television, of promoting Palin and, in the process, making perfect asses of themselves. They succeeded at both.

The account of that summer of love comes from yet a third magazine, the New Yorker. In it, Jane Mayer detailed the efforts of the highly ambitious Palin to become well known in the Washington political-journalistic milieu she pretends, in proper demagogic fashion, to detest. After an apparently bravura saying of grace, she wowed her guests with some excellent halibut cheeks and the Category 4 force of her personality. Some of them sank into a kind of delirium known to high schoolers and praised her as "my heartthrob" (Kristol), "a mix between Annie Oakley and Joan of Arc" (Gerson) and, so far not evident, "smart" (Barnes).

Especially in the Weekly Standard, Palin was acclaimed as a tribune of the people. As for her critics, they were dismissed as "liberal media" types who were not, like conservative editors and TV commentators, one with the people. Kristol hit this theme hard, having somehow absorbed Wal-Mart sensitivities while living most of his life in either New York or Washington where, as I can personally attest, real Americans are encountered only when summoned to carry out home repairs. You can learn a lot this way.

Contrast the praise for Palin with the back of the hand given to the lamentable Harriet Miers. Nominated to the Supreme Court by George W. Bush, she encountered fierce resistance from, of all people, conservatives. They questioned her ideological fervor and wondered about her legal acumen. "There is a gaping disproportion between the stakes associated with this vacancy and the stature of the person nominated to fill it," wrote a certain Kristol in the Weekly Standard. As luck would have it, he was right.

But why such keen objectivity regarding Miers and not Palin, for whom the phrase "gaping disproportion" would seem to have been coined? The answer is obvious. It is not "the stature of the person nominated" that matters, it is the person's ideology. Miers not only had questionable credentials but questionable ideological purity as well -- what the National Review called "the substance and the muddle of her views." Palin is a down-the-line rightie, so her inexperience, her lack of interest in foreign affairs, her numbing provincialism and her gifts for fabrication (Can we go over that "bridge to nowhere" routine again?) do not trouble her ideological handlers. Let her get into office. They will govern.

It is the height of chutzpah, you betcha, for a coterie of ideologues to accuse Palin's critics of political snobbery. It is also somewhat sad for a movement once built on the power of ideas -- I am speaking now of neoconservatism -- to simply swoon for a pretty face and pheromone-powered charisma. But it is, I confess, just plain fun to see all these expense-account six-packers be so wrong. For some odd reason, most Americans are not finding, as Barnes wrote, that Palin "exudes a kind of middle-class magnetism." Instead they find her out of her depth and exuding an unfathomable -- not to mention unearned -- self-confidence. If it weren't for the Boys on the Boats, she'd be her biggest fan.

Lincoln Steffens was so blinded by ideology that he mistook an immense criminal enterprise for a benevolent government. The Boys on the Boats were similarly blinded. They mistook personal magnetism for presidential qualities while Palin, clear-eyed in a manner depicted in countless movies, undoubtedly saw in them just what she wanted: a way out of Alaska.
cohenr@washpost.com
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Mr. Assad's Medicine

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702437.html
Mr. Assad's Medicine
After sponsoring terrorism against three of its neighbors, Syria plays the victim when its own border is breached.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A16 [editorial] [Syria] [WP has been pretty hawkish on –ir all along] [but I fully agree with this: Syria and Iran cannot have it both ways] [***]
IT WAS interesting to observe the wails of outrage from Syrian officials yesterday following a raid on a target near the country's border with Iraq, carried out by helicopter-borne U.S. commandos. "Criminal and terrorist aggression," charged Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem. "The law of the jungle," bemoaned spokesman Jihad Makdissi at the Syrian Embassy in London. This from a regime whose most notable activities of the past few years have been the serial assassination of senior Lebanese politicians, including former prime minister Rafik Hariri; the continuous and illegal supplying of weapons to the Hezbollah militia for use against Israel and Lebanon's democratic government; the harboring in Damascus of senior leaders of Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups; and -- most relevant -- the sheltering of an al-Qaeda network that dispatches 90 percent of the foreign fighters who wage war against U.S. troops [****]and the Iraqi government.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702437.html
Mr. Assad's Medicine
After sponsoring terrorism against three of its neighbors, Syria plays the victim when its own border is breached.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A16 [editorial] [Syria] [WP has been pretty hawkish on –ir all along] [but I fully agree with this: Syria and Iran cannot have it both ways] [***]
IT WAS interesting to observe the wails of outrage from Syrian officials yesterday following a raid on a target near the country's border with Iraq, carried out by helicopter-borne U.S. commandos. "Criminal and terrorist aggression," charged Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem. "The law of the jungle," bemoaned spokesman Jihad Makdissi at the Syrian Embassy in London. This from a regime whose most notable activities of the past few years have been the serial assassination of senior Lebanese politicians, including former prime minister Rafik Hariri; the continuous and illegal supplying of weapons to the Hezbollah militia for use against Israel and Lebanon's democratic government; the harboring in Damascus of senior leaders of Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist groups; and -- most relevant -- the sheltering of an al-Qaeda network that dispatches 90 percent of the foreign fighters who wage war against U.S. troops [****]and the Iraqi government.

The logic of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad seems to be that his regime can sponsor murders, arms trafficking, infiltrations and suicide bombings in neighboring countries while expecting to be shielded from any retaliation in kind by the diplomatic scruples of democracies. [****] For most of this decade that has been lamentably true: U.S. commanders and Iraqi officials have over and over again pointed to the infiltration of al-Qaeda militants through the Damascus airport and the land border with Iraq, and Syria's refusal to curtail it, without taking direct action. Yet in the past year Israel has intervened in Syria several times to defend its vital interests, including bombing a secret nuclear reactor. If Sunday's raid, which targeted a senior al-Qaeda operative, serves only to put Mr. Assad on notice that the United States, too, is no longer prepared to respect the sovereignty of a criminal regime, it will have been worthwhile.

Mr. Assad's government has lately taken a few cautious steps toward breaking out of its isolation, participating in indirect peace talks with Israel and granting formal diplomatic recognition to Lebanon for the first time. European governments have been quick with rewards, and the next U.S. president -- if it is Barack Obama -- may also hasten to upgrade contacts. If the Syrian regime is genuinely interested in making peace with Israel, distancing itself from Iran and the terrorist movements it sponsors, and rebuilding ties with the West, that is to be welcomed. What Damascus should not be allowed to do is reap the diplomatic and economic rewards of a rapprochement while continuing to plant car bombs, transport illegal weapons and harbor terrorists. Israel has let Mr. Assad know that it is prepared to respond to his terrorism with strikes against legitimate military targets. Now that the United States has sent the same message, maybe the dictator at last will rethink his strategy. [***]
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Back From War, and Increasingly Into the Political Fray

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/us/28soldier.html
October 28, 2008
Back From War, and Increasingly Into the Political Fray
By DAMIEN CAVE [societal] [election-year politics] [special-interest groups, SIGs] [huge number of veterans associates with two wars: Afghanistan and -Iraq] [getting involved in the upcoming presidential election] [*****]
Turn on the television in Colorado, Pennsylvania or another swing state, and you will most likely see an advertisement with a young combat veteran urging you to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/us/28soldier.html
October 28, 2008
Back From War, and Increasingly Into the Political Fray
By DAMIEN CAVE [societal] [election-year politics] [special-interest groups, SIGs] [huge number of veterans associates with two wars: Afghanistan and -Iraq] [getting involved in the upcoming presidential election] [*****]
Turn on the television in Colorado, Pennsylvania or another swing state, and you will most likely see an advertisement with a young combat veteran urging you to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate.

Scores more young veterans are volunteering for the presidential campaigns, speaking at rallies or knocking on doors, while 150,000 or so have joined new groups that have no official party association but have spent millions on advertisements supporting points of view on the Iraq and Afghan wars.

Drawn in by public demand and recent memories, young war veterans have become a growing, important part of the nation’s political dynamic, many engaged for the first time.

Pentagon regulations still ban partisan activity for active-duty troops. But the United States continues to fight its first major war without a draft, and for many of the 869,000 Americans who have served in Iraq or Afghanistan and left the military, [***]politics has become an outlet for the same sense of duty that led them to enlist.

“I think what you’re seeing is kind of an evolution of thinking,” said Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the Army chief of staff. “We still need to participate in the political process, and maybe the young guys especially think it ought to be a little more public.”

No scientific polls of the military or veteran vote have been conducted. And while Senator John McCain of Arizona is expected to carry the demographic, young Iraq veterans are working tirelessly for both parties, and with groups promoting policies that fall in between. [****]

Experts say they have received a push unlike any of their predecessors from a public hungry for authenticity, and the United States’ first networked wars, in which troops blog from the front lines and watch CNN in mess halls.

“Globalization means they are wired seamlessly into the public debate,” said Peter D. Feaver, a former member of the National Security Council in the Bush administration who has studied veterans’ political activity. So when they come home, Mr. Feaver said, “They can be injected directly into the political process.” [Duke professor who specializes in public opinion-voting behavior?] [****]

Chris Finan, like many Iraq war veterans, came home from Iraq with dust and opinions. Working as a daily briefing officer for Gen. David H. Petraeus during the troop surge last year, he said he was struck by both the achievements and limits of the American presence.

An Air Force Academy graduate who speaks Arabic, Mr. Finan sat in meetings where Iraqi leaders made promises on power-sharing in Kirkuk, the oil law and reconciliation that they still have not fulfilled.

Mr. Finan came home last summer feeling frustrated. “We were making progress,” he said. “And yet there was not that sense of urgency by Iraqis.”

Mr. Obama’s pitch for a partial withdrawal to goad the Iraqis into action appealed to Mr. Finan, so after leaving the Air Force, he decided to get involved, he said.

This summer, he received an invitation to the Democratic National Convention from Phillip Carter, a fellow Iraq veteran working for the campaign.

The convention in Denver was Mr. Finan’s introduction to big-time politics, and he quickly found himself doing broadcast interviews for the first time.

Between events he and about 25 other Iraq and Afghanistan veterans became like a small platoon.

They slept on supporters’ floors. They hung out. And they shared stories about arid, bloody places that often looked far worse than what they heard the Bush administration describe on television. [****]

Mr. Finan later sent an e-mail message to his military buddies that said the convention was “an incredible experience.” He received some harsh responses. But Mr. Finan, 31, a compact former fighter pilot from Pennsylvania, did not seem to mind.

“For the first time since I came home, I felt like I had the same clarity of purpose with a like-minded set of individuals,” he said. “It really motivated me.”

On a recent Saturday, he appeared at an Obama office in Prince William County, Va., to canvass for votes in an area flush with military families. Mr. Carter had come down from New York. Collin McMahon, 32, an intense former Special Operations Ranger who was deployed to Iraq three times and Afghanistan twice, was in charge.

It was a balmy fall day and the most telling exchange came halfway through, when they ran into Dan Nickloy, 56, a Vietnam veteran sitting on his lawn with his dog.

Mr. Nickloy said that he was an undecided voter and that he was concerned about Mr. Obama’s plan to remove troops from Iraq just as victory seemed close.

Mr. Carter, 33, who spent nine years in the Army, including a stint as a civil affairs officer in Baquba, Iraq, in 2005 and 2006, said that it was one of the things he also initially struggled with.

“But he’s not talking about pulling right out,” Mr. Carter said. He laid out Mr. Obama’s plan, emphasizing that it was not very different from the “time horizon” the White House had proposed. “We got in there for the wrong reasons,” Mr. Carter said, “but we got to end it right.” [*****]

Mr. Nickloy agreed. Mr. Finan stepped forward. “I think the Iraqis have gotten comfortable with us being there,” he said. (“That’s what I hear,” Mr. Nickloy interjected.) “And we’re not going to baby-sit them forever.”

Mr. Nickloy squinted, as if assessing a new hire. “What do you think about Afghanistan?” he asked. “Should we be there more?”

“Yeah,” Mr. Finan said. “Definitely.”

The conversation continued, turning from war to sports. Mr. Carter and Mr. Finan walked away unsure of whether they had won Mr. Nickloy over. But they said they trusted the message would slowly sink in. “It’s like a foot patrol,” Mr. Carter said. “It’s hearts and minds.”

Three hours north and a few days later, another group of young Iraq veterans gathered at a bar in Philadelphia to help raise money for Tom Manion, a Republican Congressional candidate. [****]

David Bellavia, 33, founded Vets for Freedom, a “pro-victory” [***] [if somebody could tell me what victory means, I might understand their position] [what’s wrong with what has already been accomplished?] [***] group that has spent $6 million on television advertisements this year. Pete Hegseth, 28, is the group’s executive director. They both served in Iraq, and as is the case for many young veterans, loyalty to fallen comrades is the dominant force behind their decision to become politically involved.

When asked what motivated them, they spoke less of policy than people. “We lost 37 men in my unit,” Mr. Bellavia said, his voice rising with emotion. “That sacrifice is holy to me. All of them I knew and I loved.”

Tom Manion nodded with understanding. He is running against Patrick J. Murphy, a Democrat and the only Iraq veteran in Congress — one of the 30 or so who are pursuing seats in the House this year, up from about a dozen in 2006.

Mr. Manion has attracted Vets for Freedom partly because he shares the group’s “pro-mission” viewpoint. He is also a retired marine colonel, and the father of Travis Manion, a marine and Naval Academy graduate who was killed last April in an ambush in Iraq’s western province of Anbar. [****]

Mr. Manion said he never would have become politically active were it not for his son’s death. “It made me realize that if I wanted to make a difference, it wasn’t enough to sit on the sidelines,” he said.

Many Iraq veterans express similar sentiment, and traditional campaigns are not their only outlet. Lang Sias, 49, the national veterans director for the McCain campaign, said that one of the year’s most stunning examples of veteran engagement could be seen in an amateur YouTube video that features a young Iraq veteran named Joe Cook. Standing by an American flag near his home in rural Illinois, he speaks directly to the camera. “Dear Mr. Obama,” he says at the start, “having spent 12 months in Iraq theater, I can promise you, this was not a mistake.”

He adds: “When you call the Iraqi war a mistake, you disrespect the service, and the sacrifice of everyone who has died promoting freedom.” The video ends with Mr. Cook walking away, revealing a prosthetic limb in place of the leg he lost in Iraq.

Nearly 11 million people have downloaded “Dear Mr. Obama” since it was posted Aug. 27. Mr. Bellavia and Mr. Hegseth said they were proud to discover Mr. Cook was one of their 40,000 members.

But the video, along with other forms of heightened veteran activity, also raises an issue that worries some veterans and military experts: When does partisanship go too far? Is it possible to be involved in politics without becoming part of what Mr. Bellavia disdains as “the game”?

The military has a long tradition of elevating pragmatism over ideology, which many veterans said they hoped to maintain. Yet today’s young veterans are in high demand. The Democratic Party bought Mr. Finan a $1,250 plane ticket for the convention. The veteran in the “Dear Mr. Obama” was reading a script written by Michael Brown, an amateur producer of Christian-themed videos who has not served in the military. (“I thought if I knew a soldier who lost his leg that would be perfect for this shoot,” Mr. Brown said in an interview.)

Mr. Feaver, who now teaches at Duke University, said he feared that this generation of idealists would have a hard time defending against Washington’s “sullied” politics.

Mr. Bellavia agreed. After Mr. Manion spoke, as the crowd thinned out at the bar, he said he hoped after the election to tamp down some of the rancor, and to focus on pushing Congress to pass bipartisan legislation that would give more Iraqi translators asylum in the United States. But after this emotional campaign, he said he knew it would be hard — in a way that war never was.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Officials Say Drug Cartels Infiltrated Mexican Law Unit

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/americas/28mexico.html
October 28, 2008
Officials Say Drug Cartels Infiltrated Mexican Law Unit
By MARC LACEY [Mexico] [since Calderon’s election, he’s been good as his word regarding war against illicit drugs and cartels that trade them] [in fact, it’s become a war during 2008 with incredibly brazen attacks by drug cartels] [existential war] [followup from September 18, October 3, and yesterday] [long-time corruption has plagued Mexico] [now more: Calderon’s war on drugs infiltrated by drug cartels!] [*****]
MEXICO CITY — One of Mexico’s most notorious drug cartels made huge cash payments to officials in the Mexican attorney general’s office in exchange for confidential information on antidrug operations, [****]officials said Monday, adding that the cartel might have had an informant inside the American Embassy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/americas/28mexico.html
October 28, 2008
Officials Say Drug Cartels Infiltrated Mexican Law Unit
By MARC LACEY [Mexico] [since Calderon’s election, he’s been good as his word regarding war against illicit drugs and cartels that trade them] [in fact, it’s become a war during 2008 with incredibly brazen attacks by drug cartels] [existential war] [followup from September 18, October 3, and yesterday] [long-time corruption has plagued Mexico] [now more: Calderon’s war on drugs infiltrated by drug cartels!] [*****]
MEXICO CITY — One of Mexico’s most notorious drug cartels made huge cash payments to officials in the Mexican attorney general’s office in exchange for confidential information on antidrug operations, [****]officials said Monday, adding that the cartel might have had an informant inside the American Embassy.

Prosecutors announced the arrest of five officials in the attorney general’s elite organized crime unit, who they said were receiving as much as $450,000 a month to feed secrets to the Beltrán-Leyva cartel, [****] [how could they possibly hide that sort of money?] [***] one of the major groups transporting cocaine from Colombia through Mexico to the United States.

Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora said several dozen additional people would be fired and a major overhaul would take place because of fears that even more workers in the office might be on the payroll of traffickers.

On top of that, a cartel worker whose identity is being kept secret admitted to leaking details of Drug Enforcement Administration operations to his drug bosses while working as an embassy employee, Mexican officials said.

The protected witness, whose alias was said to be Felipe, is cooperating with investigators from Mexico and the United States, [***] Mexican officials said.

A spokeswoman for the American Embassy in Mexico City would not confirm whether someone had infiltrated the embassy. [****]

Corruption has long existed within Mexican law enforcement, and high-level government officials have been caught working for traffickers in the past. Just over a decade ago, an Army general who headed Mexico’s anti-drug agency was convicted of working for a drug lord.

Still, the latest disclosures served as a stark reminder of the ability of the drug gangs to use their profits to get access to government secrets and buy protection. The eye-popping amounts of the payments — monthly sums ranging from $150,000 to $450,000 — underscored the huge profit margins for the traffickers. [****]

Assistant Attorney General Marisela Morales suggested that the officials had access to important information and might have worked for the cartels for years. [***]Some of the suspects were first detained weeks ago, but officials said they announced the case Monday after evidence of the drug links was developed.
Elisabeth Malkin and Antonio Betancourt contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Congo Rebels Advance; Protesters Hurl Rocks at U.N. Compound

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/africa/28congo.html
October 28, 2008
Congo Rebels Advance; Protesters Hurl Rocks at U.N. Compound
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and NEIL MACFARQUHAR [Congo] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [the UN has had horrible record in Congo] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved] [******]
NAIROBI, Kenya — Hundreds of furious protesters hurled rocks at a United Nations compound in eastern Congo on Monday in frustration that peacekeepers had not halted the rebel advance through the countryside, while the Spanish general leading the peacekeeping mission abruptly resigned.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/africa/28congo.html
October 28, 2008
Congo Rebels Advance; Protesters Hurl Rocks at U.N. Compound
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and NEIL MACFARQUHAR [Congo] [Africa] [Sub-Sahara Africa] [edge of civil war] [residual from Hutu-Tutsi bloodbath in early 1990s] [former Belgium colony] [the UN has had horrible record in Congo] [corruption is rampant and UN peacekeepers have been disgracefully involved] [******]
NAIROBI, Kenya — Hundreds of furious protesters hurled rocks at a United Nations compound in eastern Congo on Monday in frustration that peacekeepers had not halted the rebel advance through the countryside, while the Spanish general leading the peacekeeping mission abruptly resigned.

Jaya Murthy, a spokesman for Unicef in the eastern Congo city of Goma, said heavy fighting between government troops and rebel forces was spawning a vast wave of internally displaced people, with tens of thousands evacuating several battle zones, often for the second or third time in recent months.

As many as 250,000 people have been driven from their homes since August, with the collapse of a peace deal between the government and rebels under the command of Laurent Nkunda, a renegade general who says he is fighting to protect ethnic Tutsis.

Several Western aid workers who spoke by phone from Goma on Monday described a panicky atmosphere, with the rebels gobbling up territory in the hills above Goma and Westerners hunkering down in their compounds, fearful of stepping outside. [sound eerily like Hotel Rwanda] [****]

“We’re on alert,” Mr. Murthy said. “We’re not sure what’s in store for the future, but whatever it is, it’s not good.”

The general who resigned, Lt. Gen. Vicente Díaz de Villegas y Herrería, was officially appointed just seven weeks ago to lead the United Nations’ Congo mission and had been in the country for only three weeks.

The announcement in New York that he was stepping down, from the spokeswoman for Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, said only that General Díaz was leaving for “personal reasons.”

But some United Nations officials described his oral resignation as an emotional one. Two officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to disclose details of the resignation, said he had criticized the lack of a coherent strategy, the lack of a mandate and the lack of resources needed to get the peacekeeping job done. [*****]

General Díaz’s departure is expected to increase tension between the African forces serving with peacekeeping operations on the continent and United Nations headquarters, which has been lobbying heavily for the African Union to be more flexible about accepting outsiders. [***]His appointment as force commander had been a significant test case in those efforts.

The rebel leader, Mr. Nkunda, has rejected several cease-fires brokered by the United Nations. Recently, he threatened to take his war all the way to Kinshasa, Congo’s capital, [****]on the other side of the country.

His forces are much better trained and equipped than the government troops, who are notorious for turning their rusty guns on civilians and for fleeing when faced with a real threat. On Sunday, Mr. Nkunda’s forces seized an army base, for the second time in recent weeks.

According to United Nations officials, the protest started Monday morning around 9 after Congolese activists organized a large crowd to march on the United Nations compound in Goma. The protest quickly degenerated into violence, with demonstrators pelting the compound and nearby United Nations cars with large stones.

There were unconfirmed reports about casualties, with some Congolese officials reporting that the United Nations peacekeepers had killed two protesters in an attempt to quell the crowd. A spokesman for the peacekeepers could not be immediately reached.

The violence in eastern Congo has continued unabated for several years now, despite the presence of the United Nations’ largest peacekeeping force, with more than 17,000 troops. Brig. Gen. Ishmeel Ben Quartey of Ghana will lead the mission for the moment, the United Nations said, and Gen. Edmond Mulet of Guatemala, the assistant secretary general for peacekeeping, is in Congo.

“The population is not happy with the U.N.,” Mr. Murthy said. “They feel they are not protected. They are getting extremely angry.” [*****]
Jeffrey Gettleman reported from Nairobi, Kenya, and Neil MacFarquhar from the United Nations.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Georgia Premier Is Replaced Before Shake-Up of Cabinet

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/europe/28georgia.html
October 28, 2008
Georgia Premier Is Replaced Before Shake-Up of Cabinet
By ELLEN BARRY [Georgia] [and other former republics that Russia calls its “Near Abroad”] [former USSR] [followup] [understandably exercised since the Russia-Georgia fracas] [followup ] [this is that Jeffersonian democrat that McCain is so found of lauding] [I repeat for the hundredth time: NATO needs to do some serious calculating before letting Georgia and Ukraine in as members] [what is NATO’s purposed going forward?] [how do Georgia, Ukraine, others contribute to that purpose?] [what opportunity costs of membership for former USSR republics] [how will Russia predictably respond and is it worth that response?] [*****]
MOSCOW — President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia on Monday dismissed his prime minister, in the first significant shake-up of his government since the Russia-Georgia war nearly three months ago. [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/europe/28georgia.html
October 28, 2008
Georgia Premier Is Replaced Before Shake-Up of Cabinet
By ELLEN BARRY [Georgia] [and other former republics that Russia calls its “Near Abroad”] [former USSR] [followup] [understandably exercised since the Russia-Georgia fracas] [followup ] [this is that Jeffersonian democrat that McCain is so found of lauding] [I repeat for the hundredth time: NATO needs to do some serious calculating before letting Georgia and Ukraine in as members] [what is NATO’s purposed going forward?] [how do Georgia, Ukraine, others contribute to that purpose?] [what opportunity costs of membership for former USSR republics] [how will Russia predictably respond and is it worth that response?] [*****]
MOSCOW — President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia on Monday dismissed his prime minister, in the first significant shake-up of his government since the Russia-Georgia war nearly three months ago. [****]

The departing prime minister, Lado Gurgenidze, 37, had been in his position for less than a year. A former commercial bank chief, he was seen as a persuasive voice for Georgia as it sought to attract Western investment. He returned last week from a donors’ conference in Brussels, where he accepted pledges of more than $4.5 billion to rebuild Georgia. [****]

Mr. Saakashvili replaced Mr. Gurgenidze with a little-known diplomat, Grigol Mgaloblishvili, 35, who has served for four years as Georgia’s ambassador to Turkey.

Mr. Saakashvili also said he would propose a new cabinet for parliamentary approval in the coming days. He said that his cabinet “mainly worked well” during the military crisis and that the government shake-up would not be radical. But he said a new team was necessary to face the threat posed by Russia, [****]which has built up its military presence in the enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, among other challenges.

“Existential threat hangs over Georgia like a Damocles’ sword,” [more or less true] [though, largely of Saakashvili’s own making] [****] Mr. Saakashvili said in a meeting with parliamentary leaders. “New radical democratic reforms and liberalization are the only response to the challenges — I do not have any other recipe to offer to the new government.”

Political insiders said the announcement was not unexpected. Mr. Saakashvili has faced scrutiny from both inside and outside Georgia since the war, which caused a confrontation between Russia and the West more tense than anything seen since the cold war.

Mr. Saakashvili “is a very sensitive politician,” said Alexander Rondeli, president of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. “He understands there must be changes. People expect it from him. Many tragic events have happened.”

The war, followed by the global financial crisis, seriously damaged Georgia’s direct foreign investment and banking sectors. In addition, main transportation routes have been closed and infrastructure destroyed. [****]

In less than two weeks, on Nov. 7, opposition leaders will rally crowds in front of Georgia’s Parliament on the first anniversary of a government crackdown on demonstrators. Critics are pressing for greater press freedom and pluralism in government, charging that the exuberant team that came to power in the Rose Revolution of 2003 has become autocratic and insular.

Mr. Saakashvili said Monday that the demonstrations last year offered “a good lesson to all of us,” and that Georgia needed “unity and mutual tolerance if we want to have a real democracy.”

He said the demonstrations last year “showed us the mistakes we were making. It showed us that the Georgian government and its president should listen more to the people.” [it also showed what a tyrant Saakashvili was] [hundreds of people killed-injured] [***]

Nino Burdzhanadze, a close ally of Mr. Saakashvili in the Rose Revolution, announced Monday that she would found a “clear-cut opposition party” called Democratic Movement-United Georgia. Ms. Burdzhanadze said the party would be officially inaugurated on Nov. 23, the fifth anniversary of the Rose Revolution.
Olesya Vartanyan contributed reporting from Tbilisi, Georgia.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Ukraine's IMF Loan Endangered by Feud

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702524.html
Ukraine's IMF Loan Endangered by Feud
By Philip P. Pan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A12 [Ukraine] [former USSR] [followup] [Yushenko who tilts West has fallen on hard times] [it appears some of his trouble are of his own doing] [but his opposition which leans toward Russia has been after his head since the “Orange” revolution of 2004] [now collapsed] [followup] [none of this bodes particularly well for Ukraine] [Ukraine on the brink and this will test whether the 3 principals in Ukraine’s political dynasty can work together in the face of global economic meltdown] [*****]
MOSCOW, Oct. 27 -- Ukraine's feuding president and prime minister welcomed a proposed emergency bailout by the International Monetary Fund on Monday, but a fresh round of finger-pointing by their aides left it unclear whether the two could agree on legislation needed to win the $16.5 billion loan. [***]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702524.html
Ukraine's IMF Loan Endangered by Feud
By Philip P. Pan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A12 [Ukraine] [former USSR] [followup] [Yushenko who tilts West has fallen on hard times] [it appears some of his trouble are of his own doing] [but his opposition which leans toward Russia has been after his head since the “Orange” revolution of 2004] [now collapsed] [followup] [none of this bodes particularly well for Ukraine] [Ukraine on the brink and this will test whether the 3 principals in Ukraine’s political dynasty can work together in the face of global economic meltdown] [*****]
MOSCOW, Oct. 27 -- Ukraine's feuding president and prime minister welcomed a proposed emergency bailout by the International Monetary Fund on Monday, but a fresh round of finger-pointing by their aides left it unclear whether the two could agree on legislation needed to win the $16.5 billion loan. [***]

As Ukraine's currency fell to a historic low and its critical steel industry urged global action to stop a devastating slide in prices, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko scheduled a vote on the legislation for Tuesday and called on the nation's fractured political leadership to unite in the face of "global financial Armageddon."

Her former ally, President Viktor Yushchenko, also endorsed quick action on a legislative package that officials say includes unpopular spending cuts and other measures intended to strengthen Ukraine's wobbly banking sector. [***]

But the outcome of the vote was uncertain Monday night, as each camp accused the other of trying to use the economic crisis to get its way in an extended political standoff over whether the country should hold early parliamentary elections.

Yushchenko and Tymoshenko were allies in the 2004 street protests known as the Orange Revolution, which brought Yushchenko to the presidency. He dissolved parliament this month after the collapse of his coalition with Tymoshenko and has called for elections in December that could oust her as prime minister. [***] Tymoshenko opposes the elections and has blocked legislation needed to finance them. [couple weeks ago I hear on CNN or NPR that Tymoshenko has best poll numbers in Ukraine] [***]

In a statement Monday, Andriy Goncharuk, deputy chief of the president's secretariat, accused Tymoshenko of trying to use the economic crisis to "pursue an alternative foreign policy" and the IMF legislation to thwart the elections.

"Unfortunately, the position of the prime minister's office reduces the chances for the country to receive" the IMF loan, he said, adding that "mass unemployment" could result. He argued that elections were necessary to resolve the political stalemate in Kiev, which has increased investors' anxiety over the economy.

But Hryhoriy Nemyria, deputy prime minister for European integration, said it was Yushchenko who was putting the IMF bailout in jeopardy, accusing the president's allies of demanding a vote on funding for elections before they will consider the financial package.

"We cannot accept that," he said by telephone from Kiev. "It's a matter of priorities, and what can be a higher priority than dealing with the economic crisis?"

Nemyria added that it would be irresponsible for the government to spend $80 million on early elections during the crisis, especially given that Ukraine has had parliamentary elections in each of the past two years and that a presidential vote is scheduled for next year. [****]

Elections would also make it more difficult for the government to implement the painful reforms requested by the IMF and needed to rescue the Ukrainian economy, [probably right] [***]he said. "There would be pressure on lawmakers to be populist, and they would criticize the government for agreeing with the IMF on policies that are very difficult and sensitive."

The largest party in the legislature, the opposition Party of Regions, has already come out against the IMF proposal, arguing that it is unnecessary and could further damage the economy. Its position makes it unlikely that the legislation would pass without some kind of truce between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.

Ukraine's currency, the hryvna, has plunged more than 20 percent against the dollar, amid a run on banks that has drained more than $1 billion from deposits and a collapse in the price of steel, the nation's main export.

About 500,000 people are employed in Ukraine's steel industry, and layoffs of tens of thousands have already been announced. The government said Monday it was appealing to world metal producers to cut production and bolster prices. [***]

Many analysts say the economy is fundamentally sound. But most of Ukraine's leaders agree that it makes sense to adopt the IMF legislation and get access to the loan in case it is needed, said Igor Borakovsky, director of the independent Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting. "The situation is not a full-fledged crisis, but everyone understands that externally and internally, the situation could radically worsen."

"In principle, the politicians are more or less very close in terms of the economics," he added. "But when it comes to the politics of the decision, it becomes very difficult. There is a very specific competition among them to take credit for the rescue, to be seen as the savior of the country, and right now, this competition is extremely detrimental."
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

France: Mercury in Lawyer’s Car Is Ruled Accidental

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/europe/28briefs-MERCURYINLAW_BRF.html
October 28, 2008
World Briefing | Europe
France: Mercury in Lawyer’s Car Is Ruled Accidental
By ALAN COWELL [France] [some of the authoritarian tendencies that have characterized Czar Putin’s last couple of years] [Vlad represents a lot of Russians who don’t care for the way the world has changed since 1991] [mostly understandable and Russia ethos] [use ir text] [use psci350] [France now rules it accidental—somewhat surprisingly] [*****]
French investigators have concluded that mercury found in the car of a prominent Russian human rights lawyer had been accidentally spilled from a broken thermometer

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/europe/28briefs-MERCURYINLAW_BRF.html
October 28, 2008
World Briefing | Europe
France: Mercury in Lawyer’s Car Is Ruled Accidental
By ALAN COWELL [France] [some of the authoritarian tendencies that have characterized Czar Putin’s last couple of years] [Vlad represents a lot of Russians who don’t care for the way the world has changed since 1991] [mostly understandable and Russia ethos] [use ir text] [use psci350] [France now rules it accidental—somewhat surprisingly] [*****]
French investigators have concluded that mercury found in the car of a prominent Russian human rights lawyer had been accidentally spilled from a broken thermometer before the lawyer bought the vehicle, according to the police. The lawyer, Karinna Moskalenko, complained of headaches and vomiting this month, raising speculation that she had been the target of a poisoning plot. After falling ill, Ms. Moskalenko postponed a trip from Strasbourg, France, to Moscow to attend the trial of defendants in the killing of one of her best-known clients, the writer and journalist Anna Politkovskaya, who was shot dead in the entrance to her Moscow apartment two years ago.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Polls Show Even Split Between Israeli Blocs

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102703208.html
Polls Show Even Split Between Israeli Blocs
By Matti Friedman
Associated Press
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A12 [Israel] [domestic politics intersects Israel’s foreign policy] [PM Olmert’s legal troubles that finally took their toll so a new Kadima leader, Ms. Livni attempting to created coalition] [Ehud Barack back in position of considerable influence] [meanwhile, Israeli domestic politics again thwart any sustained effort toward Israeli-Palestinian peace] [followup] [this sort of trouble has plagued Israeli domestic politics for most of Israel’s modern existence] [rocky coalitions have ruled Israel for decades] [*****]
JERUSALEM, Oct. 27 -- Israel moved closer Monday to a bruising election campaign that will decide the future of peace talks, as polls showed the centrist foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, in a surprisingly close race with hard-line opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu. [****]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102703208.html
Polls Show Even Split Between Israeli Blocs
By Matti Friedman
Associated Press
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A12 [Israel] [domestic politics intersects Israel’s foreign policy] [PM Olmert’s legal troubles that finally took their toll so a new Kadima leader, Ms. Livni attempting to created coalition] [Ehud Barack back in position of considerable influence] [meanwhile, Israeli domestic politics again thwart any sustained effort toward Israeli-Palestinian peace] [followup] [this sort of trouble has plagued Israeli domestic politics for most of Israel’s modern existence] [rocky coalitions have ruled Israel for decades] [*****]
JERUSALEM, Oct. 27 -- Israel moved closer Monday to a bruising election campaign that will decide the future of peace talks, as polls showed the centrist foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, in a surprisingly close race with hard-line opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu. [****]

Neither of Israel’s two leading political parties would have enough seats to form a government on its own, according to the surveys, which also showed an even split between the country’s hawkish and center-left blocs. That signals more deadlock in peacemaking with Syria and the Palestinians.

Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad expressed concern Monday that precious time was running out, “although I still have hope that we can find a solution through negotiation.” [I hope he’s being ironic] [because there’s not a chance in hell now] [it’s going to be sometime] [so if he’s serious, it’s pretty stunning how badly the Palestinians have misjudged the situation] [****]

Israeli-Palestinian peace talks were relaunched nearly a year ago at a U.S.-hosted summit, where Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas set a December 2008 target for clinching a final accord. But both leaders have since acknowledged there will be no deal by year's end.

President Shimon Peres began the countdown to new elections at the opening of the winter session of parliament, a day after Livni gave up on attempts to form a new governing coalition. Peres said elections were inevitable.

Parliament now has three weeks to dissolve itself. The vote, Israel's third in six years, would take place three months later. [****]

Olmert, who is being forced from office by a series of corruption investigations, said he would remain as caretaker prime minister in the meantime.

Israel's ceremonial president is meant to be a unifying figure in this divided country, and Peres used the occasion to appeal to the parties to work together. "The coming elections can raise Israel up and release it from its various weaknesses," he said. [Peres in a nice man but I also hope he’s being ironic] [surely, he knows better?] [****]

But almost immediately, signs of division were evident. [****]

Speaking to the same session, Netanyahu unofficially launched his campaign by staking out hard-line positions on peace talks with Syria and the Palestinians. [****]

"We will not negotiate over Jerusalem, the capital of the Jewish people for the past 3,000 years. I didn't do it in the past and I won't do it in the future," said Netanyahu, who was prime minister in the late 1990s.

The Palestinians want the West Bank as part of an independent state, with east Jerusalem as their capital. Israel captured both areas in the 1967 war. Palestinians also want those people who were made refugees following Israel's establishment, and their descendants, to be allowed to return to lost properties.

Livni, who has been Israel's chief peace negotiator with the Palestinians over the past year, says Israel must find a settlement to all outstanding issues, including borders, Jerusalem and the refugees.

Netanyahu's Likud party had a poor showing in the last vote and holds 12 of parliament's 120 seats. The new polls show Likud more than doubling its strength, while Livni's Kadima holds steady. [****]
A Dahaf Research Institute poll showed Livni's Kadima party winning 29 seats, the number it has now, and Netanyahu's Likud taking 26 seats if elections were held today.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Fractures in Iraq City as Kurds and Baghdad Vie

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/middleeast/28mosul.html
October 28, 2008
Fractures in Iraq City as Kurds and Baghdad Vie
By SAM DAGHER [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [followup] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
MOSUL, Iraq — A new Iraqi military offensive is under way in this still violent northern city, but the worry is not only the insurgents who remain strong here. American commanders are increasingly concerned that Mosul could degenerate into a larger battleground over the fragile Iraqi state itself. [if the peace is that fragile, what has been accomplished?] [get out now] [*****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/middleeast/28mosul.html
October 28, 2008
Fractures in Iraq City as Kurds and Baghdad Vie
By SAM DAGHER [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [followup] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
MOSUL, Iraq — A new Iraqi military offensive is under way in this still violent northern city, but the worry is not only the insurgents who remain strong here. American commanders are increasingly concerned that Mosul could degenerate into a larger battleground over the fragile Iraqi state itself. [if the peace is that fragile, what has been accomplished?] [get out now] [*****]

The problems are old but risk spilling out violently here and now. The central government in Baghdad has sent troops to quell the insurgency here, while also aiming at what it sees as a central obstacle to both nationhood and its own power: the semiautonomous Kurdish region in the north and the Kurds’ larger ambitions to expand areas under their control.

The Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki is squeezing out Kurdish units of the Iraqi Army from Mosul, sending the national police and army from Baghdad and trying to forge alliances with Sunni Arab hard-liners in the province, who have deep-seated feuds with the Kurdistan Regional Government led by Massoud Barzani. [*****]

The Kurds are resisting, underscoring yet again the depth of ethnic and sectarian divisions here and the difficulty of creating a united Iraq even when overall violence is down. Tension has risen to the point that last week American commanders held a series of emergency meetings with the Iraqi government and Kurdish officials, seeking to head off violence essentially between factions of the Iraqi government.

“It’s the perfect storm against the old festering background,” warned Brig. Gen. Raymond A. Thomas III, who oversees Nineveh and Kirkuk Provinces and the Kurdish region.

Worry is so high that the American military has already settled on a policy that may set a precedent, as the United States slowly withdraws to allow Iraqis to settle their own problems. If the Kurds and Iraqi government forces fight, the American military will “step aside,” General Thomas said, rather than “have United States servicemen get killed trying to play peacemaker.”

The competing agendas of the Kurds and central government have nearly provoked violence before, but each side eventually grasped the risks. That may be the case now. [***] [and the Kurds generally believe the US supports their eventual aspiration of separatism] [what a bloody mess] [***] At the moment, the Americans are hoping to refocus each side on fighting the insurgency rather than each other.

But the tensions underline that achieving basic security is only the first step toward deeper progress in Iraq — and that much remains, bitterly, unresolved.

Mosul falls outside the borders of the Kurdish region, but Mr. Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party came to control the provincial government after Sunni Arabs boycotted the provincial elections in 2005. The Kurds say, however, that they will not abandon the city until they reclaim five areas in Nineveh Province, putting them on a political collision course with the central government.

Tense personal relations between Mr. Maliki and Mr. Barzani worsened, officials on all sides say, after a standoff in September between the Iraqi Army and the Kurdish security forces, [***]the pesh merga, in eastern Diyala Province. American forces helped contain that confrontation.

More broadly, the two men do not see eye to eye on issues as fundamental as the sharing of oil resources, the resolution of disputed internal borders and the shape of the Iraqi nation. The Kurds want a loose federation, while Mr. Maliki, playing on nationalist sentiments, is increasingly pushing for a strong central government.

Relations have deteriorated to the point that the Kurdish leadership has described Mr. Maliki as a new Saddam Hussein, recalling how Mr. Hussein ruthlessly crushed the Kurds in the 1980s. The borders of Iraqi Kurdistan were established as an internationally enforced security zone in 1991.
Testing Loyalties
In this latest offensive against insurgents, Mr. Maliki has been pushing to lessen Kurdish military influence here, and that is testing loyalties at a delicate time. [****]

Mr. Maliki sent nearly 3,000 national policemen from Baghdad to Mosul to prop up the local force. The officers, almost all Shiites and Sunni Arabs, will be in charge of the overwhelmingly Sunni Arab west side of the city.

Predominantly Kurdish units of the army stationed in Nineveh are slowly being replaced by the mainly Sunni Arab and Shiite contingents.

The Defense Ministry also recently appointed Maj. Gen. Abdullah Abdul-Karim, Mr. Maliki’s brother-in-law, as the new commander of the Second Division on Mosul’s east side. Mr. Barzani, sensing a plot to purge the Iraqi Army in the north of its Kurdish leadership, personally intervened recently to freeze a ministerial order to transfer 34 Kurdish officers, said Col. Hajji Abdullah, a battalion commander in the Second Division.

“If the Arabs do not change now, things will get worse and I see confrontation,” Colonel Abdullah said.

In the turmoil, he and another officer in the division, Brig. Gen. Nadheer Issam, say their loyalties are first and foremost to Kurdistan.

“If I were made to choose, I would not even think for a second — I would leave the army,” General Issam said. “We have sacrificed too much fighting the Baathists,” [***] he added, referring to Mr. Hussein’s political party.

The United States has relied on Kurds from the very beginning in Mosul. Ignoring longtime enmities between the city and Mr. Barzani’s party, American Special Forces units accompanied pesh merga fighters beholden to the party when they took Mosul in April 2003. The United States drafted more pesh merga units into the city in 2004 and 2005 when the whole provincial government and the police force collapsed at the hands of insurgents.

Although many of the pesh merga units in Nineveh were merged into the national army, an estimated 5,000 men remained from an elite Kurdistan corps in the province’s north. [***] All these actions have stoked anger in Mosul toward Americans and Kurds.

Karam Qusay, who works in the Zuhoor neighborhood of Mosul, said he wanted the city to be free of the Kurdish military presence, both in the army and outside of it.

“We wish they would leave,” he said. “We despise them.” [****]

Mosul’s allegiance to Mr. Hussein was so staunch that the city was known as the “regime’s pillow.” Now Mr. Maliki appears to be trying to win over the city by playing on grievances toward the Kurds. [incredibly myopic] [***]

“The government wants to extend its authority, and this clashes with the will and ambitions of the Kurds,” said Maj. Ali Naji, a Sunni Arab in one of the army units sent recently from Baghdad. “I predict fighting between Iraqi forces and the pesh merga.”

Sami al-Askari, one of Mr. Maliki’s senior advisers, said he hoped that talks between his boss and Mr. Barzani would head off any such confrontation.

But he made the government’s position clear: that the presence of Kurdish forces outside of the national army and beyond the borders of Kurdistan was “unlawful.” And he said the refusal of Kurdish officers in the Iraqi Army to obey their transfer orders from Nineveh was a “mutiny that must be severely punished.”

The repercussions of a face-off between Baghdad and the Kurds in Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, would be far more serious than the recent tensions in eastern Diyala.
Tenuous Security
Nineveh, wedged between Iraqi Kurdistan and Syria and close to Turkey, remains a focal point for a number of Sunni insurgent groups linked to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, the homegrown terrorist group that American officials say is led by foreigners, and to the Baath Party. Both are fighting the Americans, Mr. Maliki’s government and the Kurds. [there exist so many cross currents there it’s hopeless] [Turkey understandably attacks to wipe out PKK] [Arab nationalist group that attacks Persian regime in Iran there] [old-time Marxist insurgents] [corner of hell] [****]

Despite numerous offensives by American and Iraqi forces since the start of the year, security remains tenuous at best. This was underscored this month when 2,270 Christian families, according to the Human Rights Ministry, fled Mosul after a number of killings and other attacks against Christians. [***]

The overall level of violence has dropped in Mosul to 9 or 10 attacks a day from an average of 40 a day a year ago.

Yet killings continue, and fear is palpable. Judges are so intimidated or corrupt that the Iraqi government has flown in judges from Baghdad. Their main job is to issue arrest warrants for wanted suspects.

People other than Christians are also being attacked. A senior provincial official was killed as he left a mosque last month. Even a man who makes tea in the provincial building was recently killed in what is probably the most secure part of the city, said an American official working with local authorities.

In his push to subdue Mosul and marginalize the Kurds, Mr. Maliki is trying to curry favor with disaffected Sunnis. Last week he sent his deputy, Rafie al-Issawi, a Sunni, here with promises of a reconstruction and investment initiative that would be coordinated this time by respected Sunnis from Mosul. [great] [***]

More significant, Mr. Maliki is courting former army officers and tribal leaders like Sheik Abdullah al-Humaidi, who leads the powerful Shammar tribe in western Nineveh. All are strong nationalists who believe that Kurds must be confined to the borders of Kurdistan drawn after the Persian Gulf war in 1991.

General Thomas said Mr. Maliki was promoting Riad al-Chakerji, a Sunni Arab who is a former army general, as the next governor of Nineveh. Mr. Chakerji acts as an adviser to a committee set up to carry out the central government’s new economic initiatives for Mosul.

“The central government must be very strong, especially now,” Mr. Chakerji said.

Mr. Chakerji, Sheik Humaidi and people like Hassan al-Luhaibi, a former Iraqi Army commander who led the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, have all joined a new political coalition known as Al Hadba, which will run in the coming provincial elections.

The coalition is led by Atheel al-Nujaifi, a prominent businessman who owns a ranch in Mosul that once supplied purebred Arabian horses to Mr. Hussein’s sons, Uday and Qusay.
A Call to Keep a Promise
Mr. Nujaifi said the United States military ignored the province’s enmity toward Mr. Barzani and turned itself into a party to the conflict when it relied on pesh merga forces upon arriving in Mosul.

He said that for Mr. Maliki to assert his authority in Mosul he must first make good on his promise to drive out Kurdish forces.

“Many insurgent groups will become law-abiding after that,” Mr. Nujaifi said.

Mr. Nujaifi and his brother Osama, a member of Parliament in Baghdad, blame the Kurds for instigating a campaign against the Christians in Mosul to deflect the central government’s pressure. [****]

One Kurdish leader called the accusations “ludicrous,” and the United States military said it was most likely the work of militants linked to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. [***]

But a group of Christian leaders who met with General Thomas last week in the town of Qosh, outside Mosul, blamed the struggle between the central government and Kurdistan for the plight of their people. Sweeping out both sides, they said, may be the only way to restore calm and trust.

“You have done a great job removing Saddam’s regime,” the Rev. Bashar Warda told the general. “Continue with removing this regime, and start over again.” [****]
Alissa J. Rubin contributed reporting from Baghdad.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Iraq Security Pact Highlights Battle Between U.S., Iran

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702735.html
Iraq Security Pact Highlights Battle Between U.S., Iran
By Mary Beth Sheridan
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A10 [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [followup] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
BAGHDAD, Oct. 27 -- A deal to authorize the presence of American forces in Iraq beyond 2008 is forcing Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to choose between two influential powers in this country: the United States and Iran. [the Bush administration needs to read the paper produced by West Point on the matter] [it insists al Maliki will not—cannot—sign SOFA until after regional elections] [if true, there needs to be a plan B and the administration has no such plan] [allow me to offer one: declare victory; begin withdrawing US troops ASAP] [concentrate on global jihadis along with myriad traditional state threats] [***]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702735.html
Iraq Security Pact Highlights Battle Between U.S., Iran
By Mary Beth Sheridan
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A10 [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [followup] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
BAGHDAD, Oct. 27 -- A deal to authorize the presence of American forces in Iraq beyond 2008 is forcing Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to choose between two influential powers in this country: the United States and Iran. [the Bush administration needs to read the paper produced by West Point on the matter] [it insists al Maliki will not—cannot—sign SOFA until after regional elections] [if true, there needs to be a plan B and the administration has no such plan] [allow me to offer one: declare victory; begin withdrawing US troops ASAP] [concentrate on global jihadis along with myriad traditional state threats] [***]

U.S. officials had hoped Iraq would quickly approve the accord put before the cabinet this month, which would give 150,000 American troops legal authority to remain in Iraq after Dec. 31. But Iraqi political leaders have balked. Maliki has not openly supported the agreement forged by his negotiating team.

As the U.S. ponders withdrawal, it is clear that American political capital in Iraq is waning as Iran's grows. Maliki "is in a dilemma. He cannot antagonize the Iranians, he cannot antagonize the Americans," said Ghassan al-Attiyah, a prominent Iraqi intellectual and political analyst based at the Iraq Foundation for Development and Democracy in London. [****]

Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, has accused Iran of conducting what he called a covert and overt campaign to torpedo the agreement, including attempting to bribe Iraqi lawmakers. The allegation caused a furor in Iraq. But Iraqi officials also say Iran is trying to discourage the accord -- although in subtler ways than sending envoys with bags of cash. [Odierno needs to read the paper] [it takes for granted what Odeirno keeps smashing his head agains the wall over] [of course Iran is meddling—any rational actor would under such circumstances!] [***]

"The Iranian objective is to try to create a problematic atmosphere between Iraq and the United States," [NSSherlock] [****]said Mohammed al-Haj Hamoud, the chief Iraqi negotiator on the status-of-forces accord. He said the Iranians "have their people who can do their job on their behalf," referring to Iraqis whom he declined to identify.

One of the main sources of Iran's influence here is its longtime relationship with Shiite parties that came to power after the collapse of Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated government, analysts say. Iraq and Iran have Shiite majorities.

Iran has especially close ties with one of Maliki's coalition partners, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, or ISCI, which was formed in Iran by Iraqi Shiite exiles. Its armed wing was trained by Iran, and fought on that country's side during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Until last year, the party accepted Iran's top ayatollah as its leader.

Supporters of the Islamic Supreme Council have been vocal in raising objections to the U.S.-Iraq accord.

Maliki's Dawa party shares the goal of establishing a religious state, but is regarded as somewhat less pro-Iranian. It is small, though, with only 15 seats in the 275-member parliament.

"Maliki realizes that, without the support of ISCI, he cannot continue in power," said a secular Shiite member of parliament who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to be frank.

Iranian officials have denied U.S. accusations that their government is meddling in Iraq's affairs and arming its militias. They charge the Bush administration with using Tehran as a scapegoat for what they call failed American policies in Iraq. Iran's embassy in Baghdad did not respond to a request for comment for this article.

In the Shiite heartland of southern Iraq, Iran has strong commercial ties and relations with officials who worked with the Islamic Supreme Council and its militia when they were in exile.

With provincial elections looming early next year, Maliki is trying to position his party to compete in the south, analysts say.

If Maliki pushes the U.S.-Iraq security agreement through parliament without support from his Shiite partners, "the Iranians will turn his life into hell. He will have no chance of winning in the south," Attiyah, the political analyst, said.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said the Iraqi people have a "duty" to resist the Americans. The Iranian parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, warned of "unpleasant impacts" if Iraq signs the deal. And a senior Iranian cleric with ties to Iraq's Shiites, Ayatollah Kadhim al-Husseini al-Haeri, has pronounced the accord "haram," or forbidden under Islam. [and al-Sadr is in Iran under virtual house arrest] [Iran now controls the special criminal groups and large parts of the Shi’ia coalition, Hakim, Badr, parts of Jaish al Mahdi, so on] [but Iran also has in common with US a certain level of stability in –ir] [that’s why it has Sadr on short tether] [****]

U.S. officials have fought back, warning Iraq that if there is no agreement, the American military may be forced to shut down its operations when a United Nations mandate expires at year's end. That could cause "losses of great significance" for Iraq's security, said Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

As neighbors, Iran and Iraq have a natural interest in maintaining political and economic ties. Iran also has goals vital to its national interest: preventing the rise of another Sunni dictatorship in Iraq, and limiting the United States' ability to use Iraq as a launchpad for attacks, analysts say. [not just analysts] [US West Point CT analysts!] [***] The United States has not ruled out a military strike in Iran, which it labels a sponsor of terrorism.

Iran had little influence in Iraq until the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. Nervous about support for Iran's Islamic revolution, Hussein's government had banned Dawa and had executed thousands of Shiites suspected of belonging to it.

After Hussein's ouster, Iranians flocked to Shiite shrines in Iraq, and Iraqis suddenly had access to satellite dishes that brought news about their neighboring country. Shiite parties returned from exile to fill the power vacuum created when Hussein's Baath Party was outlawed, winning the U.S.-sponsored elections.

"Iran's primary mode of influence in Iraq is to maintain strong ties to friendly Iraqi political parties. It is entirely possible that in five years, Iran will have more influence in Baghdad than the United States," said a recent report by Col. Joseph Felter and Brian Fishman of the Combating Terrorism Center at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point.

The report criticized U.S. policymakers for concentrating on Iranian training and weapons shipments for Iraqi militias instead of Tehran's broader political efforts.

"The strategic focus on Iran's lethal aid to Iraqi militias -- at the expense of countering its overall power projection strategy -- may result in a major U.S. policy failure," the paper said.

Iran's influence with militant groups has made it a player in Iraqi affairs, analysts say. Last spring, for example, the Iranians brokered a cease-fire after the Iraqi military, with U.S. assistance, conducted an offensive in the southern city of Basra. At the time, the city was largely controlled by the followers of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

"Maliki gained a lot of strength" after the offensive, Attiyah said. "But you have to notice, what happened in Basra could not have been achieved without Iranian help. It was not only American help." [****]

The perception that Iran controls armed groups has had a chilling effect on politics, said the parliament member who spoke on the condition of anonymity. He favors the accord. [shocker] [favors the accord which is quite unpopular in –ir] [so he does so anonymously] [might evel be on US payroll] [***]

"Many members of parliament are afraid to announce their position" on the U.S.-security agreement, he said in an interview at a heavily guarded mansion in Baghdad. "They feel they may face revenge from the Iranian side, like assassinations."

Aside from Iran, there are other reasons for opposition to the accord. Some members of parliament are suspicious of a deal that has been hammered out behind closed doors. In Washington, Democrats in Congress also complain they have been kept in the dark, and objected to the Bush administration's contention that the accord does not need Senate approval.

The agreement gives Iraq greater control over military operations, and mandates that U.S. forces pull out of Iraqi cities by July 2009 and leave the country at the end of 2011, unless Iraq requests an extension.

It also lets Iraqi courts, with U.S. acquiescence, try American soldiers who commit serious crimes when they are off-duty and outside their bases.
Staff writers Karen DeYoung and Walter Pincus in Washington contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Rejection of Oil Law and Move to Create Tribal Councils Add to Tensions With Kurds

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/middleeast/28iraq.html
October 28, 2008
Rejection of Oil Law and Move to Create Tribal Councils Add to Tensions With Kurds
By ALISSA J. RUBIN [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [followup] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
BAGHDAD — Tensions between Kurdistan and the central government of Iraq continued to bubble Monday. A parliamentary committee rejected a new draft of an oil law, and Kurdish politicians denounced the government’s effort to create semi-tribal councils as a counterweight to Kurdish political power in Kirkuk. [I repeat] [US, get out of this mess while there’s still time] [declare victory, begin withdrawing US troops ASAP] [***]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/middleeast/28iraq.html
October 28, 2008
Rejection of Oil Law and Move to Create Tribal Councils Add to Tensions With Kurds
By ALISSA J. RUBIN [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [followup] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
BAGHDAD — Tensions between Kurdistan and the central government of Iraq continued to bubble Monday. A parliamentary committee rejected a new draft of an oil law, and Kurdish politicians denounced the government’s effort to create semi-tribal councils as a counterweight to Kurdish political power in Kirkuk. [I repeat] [US, get out of this mess while there’s still time] [declare victory, begin withdrawing US troops ASAP] [***]

At least two international organizations are working on reports on the troubles between Iraq’s Kurds and Arabs. The United Nations is expected to release its report in the next month or two.

The International Crisis Group, a nongovernmental organization based in Brussels that seeks to prevent and resolve deadly conflicts, will issue its report on Tuesday. Both try to set out a strategy to resolve a web of interlinked disputes that threaten to set Kurds and Arabs against each other along the border of Iraq’s Kurdistan region.

At issue are fundamental questions of territorial rights: redrawing the borders of the Kurdish region, the rights of that region versus those of the central government and, not least, the region’s right to develop its own oil resources.

“Kurds are very frustrated and are taking revenge by holding up other legislation in Baghdad,” said Joost Hiltermann, a senior analyst of the Middle East for the International Crisis Group. [****]

In the past year relations between the Kurds and the central government have deteriorated. A December 2007 deadline passed without the enactment of an article of the Iraqi Constitution meant to redress the Kurds’ sense of betrayal by the government of Saddam Hussein. In addition to persecuting the Kurds, Mr. Hussein’s government forced them to flee Kirkuk, the center of an oil-rich area, and moved in Arabs to take their place.

The measure, Article 140, proposes a three-part remedy: enabling Kurds to return to Kirkuk, conducting a census, and then holding a referendum in which people who live in Kirkuk will vote on whether the city should become part of Iraqi Kurdistan. Many Kurds have returned, but there has been no census or referendum. [****]

A delay of the referendum was brokered by the United Nations, but Kurds have been frustrated by the lack of any effort to set a new deadline.

It has become an article of faith for Kurdish political leaders that the Kurds have a right to fold Kirkuk into Kurdistan. The Kurds are also seeking to maintain influence over a number of other disputed areas along their border with the rest of Iraq.

The central government has long opposed Kurdistan’s claims to Kirkuk because it wants access to the region’s oil wealth, and also because historically many other peoples have lived there: Turkmens, Arabs and Christians, many of them Assyrians. [***]

The Kurds’ most recent tactic to push the central government to work with them has been to block needed legislation, slowing down passage of a provincial powers law, the election law and the oil law, according to the International Crisis Group report.

The group recommends that the Iraqi central government allow the Kurds to develop and sell their oil through a pipeline to Turkey, giving them some economic independence from Baghdad. In exchange, the Kurds would defer their claim to Kirkuk and accept a power-sharing agreement in which the top provincial slots and the provincial council seats would be equally divided among Kurds, Arabs and Turkmens and a small number of seats would go to Christians. Such an arrangement is acceptable to Arabs, Turkmens and Christians.

“This proposal is a grand bargain,” said Mr. Hiltermann, the crisis group analyst. “This is what the Iraqi government has to give, and they would be giving relatively little, and this is what the Kurds have to give.” [****] It would also ask that Turkey allow the Kurds to export their oil through its territory. [not bloody likely while PKK still active] [***]

On Monday, the Kurds announced that they had rejected efforts by the government to form tribal support councils in places that include Kirkuk and Khanaqin, a predominantly Kurdish city, and neighboring Jalawla. The councils are similar to the Awakening groups formed by the American military to fight Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, the homegrown Sunni insurgent group that American intelligence says is led by foreigners. The armed Awakening groups, whose stated goal is protection of their local areas, have also become a political force in some places.

One reason the Kurds reject them is that they fear that the councils may restrict Kurdish influence. “The areas where Mr. Maliki is forming these support councils are disputed areas,” [***]said Jabbar Yawer, the leader of the ministry governing the Kurdish pesh merga, a regional force partly absorbed into the Iraqi Army. The term “disputed area” describes areas that Kurdistan claims, but that the central government says are part of the rest of Iraq.

“There is no security vacuum in these areas,” Mr. Yawer said. “The police and army are there and they can preserve security.”

Reporting was contributed by Mohammed Hussein, Abeer Mohammed and Tareq Maher from Baghdad, and Iraqi employees of The New York Times from Kurdistan, Kirkuk and Tikrit.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Syria Orders American School Closed After Raid

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29syria.html
October 29, 2008
Syria Orders American School Closed After Raid
By ERIC SCHMITT and GRAHAM BOWLEY [Syria] [-ir] [more on recent news that US crossed –ir-Syria border in pursuit of foreign fighters] [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [apparently, coalition troops have slowed the passage of foreign fighters from Syria portal to trickle] [also, apparently someone decided to go to source] [question is at what level this decision was made?] [****]
WASHINGTON — The Syrian cabinet decided on Tuesday to close the American School and an American cultural center in Damascus, the capital, after a raid into Syria on Sunday by United States Special Operations forces, the official SANA news agency said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/middleeast/29syria.html
October 29, 2008
Syria Orders American School Closed After Raid
By ERIC SCHMITT and GRAHAM BOWLEY [Syria] [-ir] [more on recent news that US crossed –ir-Syria border in pursuit of foreign fighters] [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [apparently, coalition troops have slowed the passage of foreign fighters from Syria portal to trickle] [also, apparently someone decided to go to source] [question is at what level this decision was made?] [****]
WASHINGTON — The Syrian cabinet decided on Tuesday to close the American School and an American cultural center in Damascus, the capital, after a raid into Syria on Sunday by United States Special Operations forces, the official SANA news agency said.

The decision was the first retaliation against the United States by Syria, which has accused it of “terrorist aggression” in the raid. [****]

Syria said eight civilians were killed in the attack. But American officials said the raid by American helicopter-borne forces killed an Iraqi militant responsible for running weapons, money and foreign fighters across the border into Iraq, and that all the people killed in the assault were militants. [****] [smugglers aren’t necessarily militants but I have no problem with this if made at NSC level] [if made at tactical level, it’s scary] [what if a US troop was captured?] [***]

A senior American official said and that women and children living with the militants had not been harmed.

The strike into Syria was by far the boldest by American commandos in the five years since the United States invaded Iraq and began to condemn Syria’s role in stoking the Iraqi insurgency. [****]

The timing was startling, not least because American officials praised Syria in recent months for its efforts to halt traffic across the border. [and Syria announced it was to open embassy in –ir] [few other Arab governments have done so yet] [***]

But in justifying the attack, American officials said the Bush administration was determined to operate under an expansive definition of self-defense that provided a rationale for strikes on militant targets in sovereign nations without those countries’ consent. [****]

Together with a similar American commando raid into Pakistan more than seven weeks ago, the operation on Sunday appeared to reflect an intensifying effort by the Bush administration to find a way during its waning months to attack militants even beyond the borders of Iraq and Afghanistan, [***] [I do worry that tactical considerations are driving policy rather than strategic ones] where the United States is at war.

Administration officials declined to say whether the emerging application of self-defense could lead to strikes against camps inside Iran that have been used to train Shiite “special groups” that have fought with the American military and Iraqi security forces.

American officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the secrecy of the raid said the mission had been mounted rapidly over the weekend on orders from the Central Intelligence Agency when the location of the man suspected of leading an insurgent cell, an Iraqi known as Abu Ghadiya, [***]was confirmed. About two dozen American commandos in specially equipped Black Hawk helicopters swooped into the village of Sukkariyah, six miles from the Iraqi border, just before 5 p.m., and fought a brief gun battle with Abu Ghadiya and several members of his cell, [****]the officials said.

It was unclear whether Abu Ghadiya died near his tent on the battlefield or after he was taken into American custody, [***]one senior American official said.

One United States official described Abu Ghadiya as Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia’s “most prominent” smuggler of foreign operatives crossing the Syrian border into Iraq, and in February the Treasury Department named him as one of four major figures in that group living in Syria. [sounds as though they knew this guy’s activities pretty well] [***]

The official said Abu Ghadiya was in his late 20s and came from a family of smugglers in Anbar Province, in western Iraq. He was also suspected of having led an attack in May on a police station in western Iraq that killed 11 Iraqi officers, [****]an American official said.

Spokesmen for the Defense Department and the C.I.A. declined to comment on the attack. On Sunday, an American military official had denied that American military helicopters had played a part in the raid.

Since the Sept. 11 attacks, the United States has attacked terrorism suspects in the ungoverned spaces of countries like Yemen and Somalia. But administration officials said Monday that the strikes in Pakistan and Syria were carried out on the basis of a legal argument that has been refined in recent months to justify strikes by troops and by rockets on militants in countries with which the United States is not at war. [well that hardly settles it] [we have, sadly, seen this administration come up with some very odd “legal” arguments] [*****]

The justification is different from the concept of pre-emption the administration articulated immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks, and which was used as the rationale for the invasion of Iraq. While pre-emption was used to justify attacks against governments and their armies, the self-defense argument would justify attacks on insurgents operating on foreign soil that threatened the forces, allies or interests of the United States. [I’m continually stunned by the misuse of preemption] [for it to be preemption, a threat must be imminent] [the decision to invade –ir was a preventative attack] [*****]

Administration officials pointed Monday to a passage in President Bush’s speech to the United Nations General Assembly last month as the clearest articulation of this position to date.

“As sovereign states, we have an obligation to govern responsibly, and solve problems before they spill across borders,” Mr. Bush said. “We have an obligation to prevent our territory from being used as a sanctuary for terrorism and proliferation and human trafficking and organized crime.”

In seeking to carry out cross-border missions inside Pakistan and now in Syria, the United States government is expected to make the case that these operations will help protect the lives of American troops. It is not clear how far-reaching the White House may be in seeking to apply the rationale, but several senior American officials expressed hope that it would be embraced by the next president as well. [****]

The American military has on occasion mounted attacks on Syrian soil to support its military operations in Iraq, but they mostly have been cross-border missile strikes, and there was a rare case of ground forces briefly crossing the frontier in hot pursuit of insurgents.

In London on Monday, Syria’s foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, accused the United States of “terrorist aggression” in the raid, in which Syria said eight civilians had been killed. [****]A senior American official said that all the people killed in the assault were militants, and that women and children living with the militants had not been harmed.

On Tuesday, the Syrian cabinet also said it was postponing a meeting between Syrian and Iraqi officials due to be held in Baghdad next month, and criticized the Iraqi government’s support of American attempts to go after people believed to be fomenting antigovernment unrest in Iraq.

In seeking support in international law for its actions, the Bush administration is joining a list of nations that have cited Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which enshrines the right of individual or collective self-defense to all member states. [****]

Over the years, a growing body of legal argument has made the case that this right of self-defense allows a nation to take military action on the territory of another sovereign nation that is unable or unwilling to take measures on its own to halt the threat.

This argument was emphasized when the Israeli military mounted a hostage-rescue mission at Entebbe airport in Uganda in 1976, and similar arguments have been made to defend actions by the Colombian military against the FARC guerrillas seeking haven in neighboring countries, and Turkish troops pursuing Kurdish militants in their sanctuaries in northern Iraq. [****]

Israel also made this argument when, in September last year, its warplanes attacked what Israel said was a nuclear reactor in Syria that was nearing operational capability.

This month, Gen. David H. Petraeus, the former top commander in Iraq, said that the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq had dwindled to less than 20 a month from a peak of more than 120 a month a year ago.

But one military officer said Monday that while Syria had been able to take specific steps like detaining combat-age men found flying into Damascus airport on one-way tickets, there had been less success in halting the flow of money and weapons to the insurgency. [****]

The Iraqi government found itself in an awkward position on Monday as it sought at once to remain on friendly terms with Syria, which is a neighbor and now home to more than a million Iraqi refugees, [****]but also to bolster the United States in going after militants.

“This area was a staging ground for activities by terrorist organizations hostile to Iraq,” said Ali al-Dabbagh, the Iraqi government spokesman. He said Iraq had previously requested that Syrian authorities hand over insurgents who used Syria as their base.

Eric Schmitt reported from Washington and Graham Bowley from New York. Thom Shanker and Mark Mazzetti contributed reporting from Washington and Alissa J. Rubin from Baghdad.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Ahmadinejad's Health Becomes Political Issue in Iran

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702736.html
Ahmadinejad's Health Becomes Political Issue in Iran
By Thomas Erdbrink
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A11 [iran] [domestic politics intersect foreign policy] [recently, the supreme leader gave a shout out to Ahmadinejad] [why?] [hard to know] [might be as simple as he feels Ahmadinejad too beleaguered] [might be a shot across the bow from another faction] [more on Ahmadinejad’s recent health problems—no surprise as he’s under siege] [*******]
TEHRAN, Oct. 27 -- An illness that caused President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to cancel some scheduled events last week has become a political issue as Iran prepares for presidential elections next year. [I think the election is in June] [***]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102702736.html
Ahmadinejad's Health Becomes Political Issue in Iran
By Thomas Erdbrink
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A11 [iran] [domestic politics intersect foreign policy] [recently, the supreme leader gave a shout out to Ahmadinejad] [why?] [hard to know] [might be as simple as he feels Ahmadinejad too beleaguered] [might be a shot across the bow from another faction] [more on Ahmadinejad’s recent health problems—no surprise as he’s under siege] [*******]
TEHRAN, Oct. 27 -- An illness that caused President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to cancel some scheduled events last week has become a political issue as Iran prepares for presidential elections next year. [I think the election is in June] [***]

Iran's official Islamic Republic News Agency on Saturday described the president as being exhausted, and several politicians allied to Ahmadinejad's faction have said he was overworked. Opponents, however, say the illness is a political stunt meant to showcase his image as a servant of the people. [****] [who can say?]

Ahmadinejad appeared on state television Sunday saying that he might be exhausted but that it was nothing serious. "Of course, we are also human beings, and sometimes we catch a cold," he said.

With presidential elections slated for June 12, Ahmadinejad faces several issues that endanger his chances of reelection, including an annual inflation rate of nearly 30 percent and sliding oil revenue. Critics say he has failed in his promise to transfer the country's oil wealth directly to the people. But his image as a hard worker remains intact.

Ahmadinejad has not yet announced his candidacy, but almost all Iranian presidents since the 1979 revolution have served two terms.

During his time as mayor of Iran's capital, Ahmadinejad cultivated an image as a hands-on manager willing on occasion to pick up a broom and help clean Tehran's streets. He travels frequently to remote villages, where he insists on meeting residents. His long workdays are often lauded in the state press. [****]

“By God, sometimes [Ahmadinejad works] more than 22 hours a day,” said Mehdi Kalhor, a longtime aide and media adviser to the president. “After work, he sits down and rests for a couple hours. But I saw him today at noon and he was completely well.”

Local Web sites wrote that Ahmadinejad’s exhaustion might affect his political future, but Kalhor said the president’s health would be “no obstacle” to running for reelection.

Ahmadinejad’s political opponents say the illness was meant to bolster his image.

“This news was leaked and propagated by the government itself, meant to create compassion from the electorate,” said Mohammad Atrianfar, a politician who opposes Ahmadinejad. “They try to say that the president is so serious in his duties that he has even fallen ill. Everybody gets sick and then they get better. These are campaign tricks.” [the good folks at Commentary ought to read more] [they’re convinced Iran is run by religious zealots—irony not being their strong suit] [these stories make Iran sound much more predictable] [factionalism: self interest and self preservation] [less likely to hasten the 12th imams return] [*****]

Atrianfar, who is affiliated with Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president who is an important opponent of the government’s policies, called for Ahmadinejad to work less.

“He should not work 22 hours a day. Bulldozers and cranes work 24 hours a day,” he said. “Instead we need thoughts, not physical work. Actually, I wish he wouldn’t work at all, because the work he does is more tragic than useful.” [ouch] [Rafsanjani, usually considered a moderate, and always known as rich but with stigma of corruption] [***]
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Japan Says Kim Jong-Il in Hospital

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/asia/29kim.html
October 29, 2008
Japan Says Kim Jong-Il in Hospital
By NORIMITSU ONISHI [DPRK] [latest stunt seems to have worked—anyone who has watched dear leader’s regime operate knows this is standard-operating procedure [you’re just sort of stuck with it] [the more interesting matter is whether their dear leader had the rumored stroke or not] [if yes, recent negotiations may well presage a nasty purge as generals and others fight for top positions] [and as difficult as it may be to believe, Kim might have been a comparative “moderate”?] [another indicator that the dear leader is in ill health?] [followup] [******]
TOKYO — Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s leader, is probably hospitalized but still capable of making decisions, [****]Japan’s prime minister, Taro Aso, said Tuesday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/world/asia/29kim.html
October 29, 2008
Japan Says Kim Jong-Il in Hospital
By NORIMITSU ONISHI [DPRK] [latest stunt seems to have worked—anyone who has watched dear leader’s regime operate knows this is standard-operating procedure [you’re just sort of stuck with it] [the more interesting matter is whether their dear leader had the rumored stroke or not] [if yes, recent negotiations may well presage a nasty purge as generals and others fight for top positions] [and as difficult as it may be to believe, Kim might have been a comparative “moderate”?] [another indicator that the dear leader is in ill health?] [followup] [******]
TOKYO — Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s leader, is probably hospitalized but still capable of making decisions, [****]Japan’s prime minister, Taro Aso, said Tuesday.

Citing intelligence reports, Mr. Aso said in a parliamentary session that “there are reports he has been hospitalized.”

“However, it’s not believed that he is completely incapable of making decisions,” [****]Mr. Aso said, answering an opposition lawmaker’s question during a exchange on foreign affairs and defense.

If Mr. Kim, 66, had been incapable of decision-making, Japanese and other intelligence officials believe, “we would be seeing different developments” in North Korea, the prime minister said.

Although Mr. Aso did not provide further details about the North Korean leader’s condition, his comments were a rare instance of a national leader speculating so publicly about Mr. Kim’s health. They did not seem to relate to any domestic political considerations, but Japanese leaders were upset earlier this month when the Bush administration removed North Korea from the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism. [understandably so] [they wanted kidnapped Japanese accounted for] [but it was in the US interest to remove DPRK] [****]

Tokyo has long wanted to use the promise of removal from the terrorism list as leverage to force North Korea to be more forthcoming about the fate of Japanese citizens who were abducted many years ago. The prospect that the “six-party talks” on dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program could be completed without resolving the abduction issue is anathema to the Japanese.

In this perspective, commenting on the health of the North Korean leader could be a way of warning the United States and others of Japan’s capacity to disrupt the talks if it thinks its interests are not being served. Mr. Kim’s health, long a topic of intense speculation outside North Korea, has been the focus of intelligence officials since he failed to attend a celebration of the 60th anniversary of the founding of North Korea last month. American and other officials said that he had possibly suffered a stroke and was under the care of doctors in Pyongyang, raising fears about instability in the North, a nuclear power.

North Korea has denied that Mr. Kim is ill. According to North Korean media, Mr. Kim has made public appearances since his absence from last month’s celebration. But experts have raised doubts about the date of one photograph supposedly showing Mr. Kim. [****]

In a separate assessment of Mr. Kim’s health on Tuesday, South Korea’s intelligence chief said in a closed parliamentary session in Seoul that the leader appeared to be recovering quickly. [****]According to Yonhap News, Kim Sung-ho, the director of the National Intelligence Service, told lawmakers that the North Korean leader had sufficiently recovered to start performing his daily duties.—endit
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Rate of Nuclear Thefts ‘Disturbingly High,’ Monitoring Chief Says

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/28nuke.html
October 28, 2008
Rate of Nuclear Thefts ‘Disturbingly High,’ Monitoring Chief Says
By NEIL MACFARQUHAR [UN] [nuclear, WMD, proliferation] [IAEA] [“disturbingly high” rate according to ElBaradei] [this is not good!] [use psci355, 455, 469b] [*******]
UNITED NATIONS — Mohamed ElBaradei, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a speech on Monday that the number of reports of nuclear or radioactive material stolen around the world last year was “disturbingly high.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/28nuke.html
October 28, 2008
Rate of Nuclear Thefts ‘Disturbingly High,’ Monitoring Chief Says
By NEIL MACFARQUHAR [UN] [nuclear, WMD, proliferation] [IAEA] [“disturbingly high” rate according to ElBaradei] [this is not good!] [use psci355, 455, 469b] [*******]
UNITED NATIONS — Mohamed ElBaradei, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a speech on Monday that the number of reports of nuclear or radioactive material stolen around the world last year was “disturbingly high.”

Dr. ElBaradei, in his annual report to the General Assembly, said nearly 250 such thefts were reported in the year ending in June. [***] [this is nightmare scenario] [dirty bomb detonated in busy city or port in West] [****]

“The possibility of terrorists obtaining nuclear or other radioactive material remains a grave threat,” he said. “Equally troubling is the fact that much of this material is not subsequently recovered.” [****]

Members of Dr. ElBaradei’s staff and outside experts cautioned that the amount of missing material remained relatively small. If all the stolen material were lumped together, it would not be enough to build even one nuclear device, [that’s not the most likely concern] [dirty bomb much more likely] [relatively simple] [***] they said.

It is also unclear if the rising number of reports of stolen material stems from a growing market for radioactive goods or more vigilant reporting of thefts by member states.

However, the idea that there might be a new market for such material is of concern, they said, especially if some of it were to end up in a dirty bomb. [bingo] [***]

The threat from such a bomb is less a health risk from radiation than from the panic an attack would probably cause, said Cristina Hansell, a professor at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, [and think about what sort of panic it would cause] [***] in Monterey, Calif.

Most of the concern about thefts centers on the countries of the former Soviet Union, where nuclear programs were widespread, but they occur everywhere.

In a typical case, Ms. Hansell said, an oil company reported last May that a device containing radioactive material that was used in exploration in Sudan was missing.

It would take long exposure to the device to create any health risk, she said. “What will kill you from a dirty bomb is the immediate explosion, not the radioactivity,” she said, noting that the main concern was that despite the attention devoted to trying to police such material, the amount disappearing keeps rising. “There still seems to be quite a big problem.” [*****]

Aside from the issue of thefts, Dr. ElBaradei said he hoped that North Korea, which left the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 2003, would return, and he criticized Iran for impeding the agency’s attempts to verify whether it was developing nuclear weapons. [***]

Sin Sang-chol, a North Korean representative to the United Nations, accused the monitoring agency of spying on his country at the behest of Washington and called its position “prejudiced and unfair.”

The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations, Mohammad Khazaee, defended his country’s nuclear development program as peaceful while lashing out at Israel for its creating a weapons program outside the nonproliferation treaty framework.

It is widely assumed that Israel has nuclear weapons, but the Israeli government has never acknowledged it.

Mr. Khazaee called the policy of trying to force Iran to stop nuclear enrichment before starting negotiations on economic and other incentives “an irrational and failed policy.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

U.S. Copter Shot Down

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102703123.html
Around the World
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A11
AFGHANISTAN
U.S. Copter Shot Down
[Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [additionally, huge problem that NATO must get under control] [corruption hurting Karzai] [sadly, I’ve written about this many times] [NATO-US are now permitted to go after tribals-jihadis] [strategy has yet to catch up] [tactics driving strategy and externalities abound] [serious problem as administration is on hold in last 3 months] [meanwhile, AfPak sliding toward abyss and this situation is hastening the slide] [****]
Insurgents shot down a U.S. helicopter Monday after exchanging fire with its crew in central Afghanistan, while a suicide bomber in the north killed two U.S. soldiers inside a police station, officials said.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/27/AR2008102703123.html
Around the World
Tuesday, October 28, 2008; A11
AFGHANISTAN
U.S. Copter Shot Down
[Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [additionally, huge problem that NATO must get under control] [corruption hurting Karzai] [sadly, I’ve written about this many times] [NATO-US are now permitted to go after tribals-jihadis] [strategy has yet to catch up] [tactics driving strategy and externalities abound] [serious problem as administration is on hold in last 3 months] [meanwhile, AfPak sliding toward abyss and this situation is hastening the slide] [****]
Insurgents shot down a U.S. helicopter Monday after exchanging fire with its crew in central Afghanistan, while a suicide bomber in the north killed two U.S. soldiers inside a police station, officials said.

The crew members of the helicopter, forced down in a province neighboring Kabul, were rescued and troops were "in the process of recovering" the aircraft, said Lt. Cmdr. Walter Matthew, a U.S. military spokesman.

At least four insurgents were killed in the exchange, said Fazel Karim Muslim, the chief of Sayed Abad district. [***]

The U.S. and other foreign forces rely heavily on helicopters for transportation around Afghanistan, a mountainous country with long stretches of desert and few decent roads.

The bomber, wearing a police uniform, entered a police station in Pul-e-Khumri, the capital of Baghlan province, while Afghan officials were meeting with U.S. troops advising a police training program, provincial police chief Gen. Abdul Rahman Sayed Kheil said. The blast wounded five in addition to the two U.S. deaths, officials said.
SUDAN
5 Oil Workers Killed
Kidnappers holding nine Chinese oil workers for more than a week have killed five of the men, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry said Monday. Two other captives managed to flee their abductors, while the remaining two are still being held, said ministry spokesman Ali Sadiq.

Sadiq accused the Justice and Equality Movement, a Darfur rebel group, of seizing and killing the Chinese. The group has denied involvement.

The Chinese Embassy in Khartoum could not be reached for comment, but the state-run New China News Agency said the embassy "strongly condemned" the killings. China is the biggest foreign investor in Sudan and one of the Khartoum government's strongest allies.
ZIMBABWE
Power Deadlock Persists
A meeting of southern African leaders has failed to break a deadlock threatening a power-sharing deal in Zimbabwe, an opposition source said Monday. The emergency regional meeting in Harare, Zimbabwe's capital, was intended to salvage the agreement between President Robert Mugabe and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.

Mugabe, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara, the leader of a small opposition faction, signed an agreement to form a unity government last month. The parties then locked horns over control of ministries.

Mugabe's chief negotiator, Patrick Chinamasa, described Monday's talks as "probably the last chance for a settlement."
* * *
Pro-Business Party Wins in Finland
Finland's National Coalition party garnered the most support in a nationwide election for the first time as voters concerned about the economy were swayed by the party's pro-business policies. [***] The National Coalition, the junior member in the center-right government, won the support of 23.4 percent of voters in Sunday's municipal elections, the Justice Ministry announced.
NATO Escorts Vessel to Somalia
NATO warships safely escorted a cargo of supplies through the pirate-infested waters off Somalia on Monday for the first time. One of the seven alliance ships that arrived in the region over the weekend guarded a vessel supplying African Union peacekeeping troops to its Somali destination. Meanwhile, hijackers holding an arms-laden Ukrainian vessel said its operators want to negotiate only for the return of the vessel and the crew, not the weapons.
From News Services
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Afghan Bomb at Meeting Kills 2 G.I.’s and a Child

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/asia/28afghan.html
October 28, 2008
Afghan Bomb at Meeting Kills 2 G.I.’s and a Child
By ABDUL WAHEED WAFA and CARLOTTA GALL [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [additionally, huge problem that NATO must get under control] [corruption hurting Karzai] [sadly, I’ve written about this many times] [NATO-US are now permitted to go after tribals-jihadis] [strategy has yet to catch up] [tactics driving strategy and externalities abound] [serious problem as administration is on hold in last 3 months] [meanwhile, AfPak sliding toward abyss and this situation is hastening the slide] [also, shades of 2001-2000] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — A suicide attacker in a police uniform blew himself up inside a police station in the northern Afghan province of Baghlan on Monday, [***]killing two American soldiers and an 8-year-old boy, Afghan officials said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/asia/28afghan.html
October 28, 2008
Afghan Bomb at Meeting Kills 2 G.I.’s and a Child
By ABDUL WAHEED WAFA and CARLOTTA GALL [Afghanistan] [hydra] [Pakistan became the clear staging area for operations into Afghanistan during 2007] [AfPak] [followup] [additional indications that offensive is on: Taliban getting bolder in their stronghold] [hard to know where the insurgency ends and common criminality begins] [more bad news about civilian deaths by NATO] [additionally, huge problem that NATO must get under control] [corruption hurting Karzai] [sadly, I’ve written about this many times] [NATO-US are now permitted to go after tribals-jihadis] [strategy has yet to catch up] [tactics driving strategy and externalities abound] [serious problem as administration is on hold in last 3 months] [meanwhile, AfPak sliding toward abyss and this situation is hastening the slide] [also, shades of 2001-2000] [use psci469b] [****]
KABUL, Afghanistan — A suicide attacker in a police uniform blew himself up inside a police station in the northern Afghan province of Baghlan on Monday, [***]killing two American soldiers and an 8-year-old boy, Afghan officials said.

The blast wounded several other people, including one American soldier, officials said.

Baghlan is a relatively peaceful province, and there is said to be no active insurgency there. But it was the scene of one of the bloodiest suicide attacks last year, in which as many as 72 people were reported killed, including 5 lawmakers and more than 50 schoolchildren. [****]

The Taliban quickly claimed responsibility for the attack on Monday. A spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahed, identified the suicide bomber as a man named Abdul Ahad and said the attack had caused many more casualties than those reported [***]by Afghan and American officials.

An American military spokesman, Maj. John Redfield, said that two coalition soldiers had been killed and three wounded. He did not give the nationality of the other two wounded coalition soldiers, nor did he say what they were doing at the police station.

United States personnel are involved in police training and mentoring and work closely with Afghan security officials in many provinces in Afghanistan.

The attack happened as American police trainers were in the building talking with Afghan police officials, and their guards were in the yard where the bomber detonated the explosives on his body, Afghan officials said.

“Two American soldiers and a child were killed, and one American and five Afghan soldiers were wounded,” said Abdul Rahman Sayedkhili, the police chief of Baghlan.

He said the attacker had managed to infiltrate the compound by wearing a police uniform during a large meeting of district chiefs, who arrived with many bodyguards. [***] [what nationality was the bomber?] [typically, they are foreign fighters] [Pakistani, C. Asian, sometimes even Arabs] [though unlikely here as Arab might be easily recognized] [***]

In Wardak Province, southwest of Kabul, an American helicopter came under fire from Taliban insurgents and was forced to make “a hard landing,” [***]said Col. Gregory Julian, a spokesman for American forces in Afghanistan.

No one was injured, he said. He indicated that the helicopter could have been forced down by small-arms fire or a rocket-propelled grenade.

Mr. Mujahed, the Taliban spokesman, said Taliban insurgents had opened fire on the helicopter and brought it down while the pilot was trying to land at a compound where coalition forces were looking for militants.
Taimoor Shah contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Sudan: Kidnappers Kill 5 Chinese Oil Workers

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/africa/28briefs-KIDNAPPERSKI_BRF.html
October 28, 2008
World Briefing | Africa
Sudan: Kidnappers Kill 5 Chinese Oil Workers
By REUTERS [Sudan] [Africa’s food crisis] [in the strategic Horn of Africa] [Sudan partly forgottton in the the recent commotion but Bush administration making indications it may support ICC trial against al Bashir regime] [Hague tribunals in Netherlands surely affecting Khartoum’s view of things] [and in past

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/africa/28briefs-KIDNAPPERSKI_BRF.html
October 28, 2008
World Briefing | Africa
Sudan: Kidnappers Kill 5 Chinese Oil Workers
By REUTERS [Sudan] [Africa’s food crisis] [in the strategic Horn of Africa] [Sudan partly forgottton in the the recent commotion but Bush administration making indications it may support ICC trial against al Bashir regime] [Hague tribunals in Netherlands surely affecting Khartoum’s view of things] [and in past few years, the southern resistance has become complex and provocative] [with good reason since Khartoum unleashed genocide with its janjaweed militia] [followup Oct 20] [****]
Kidnappers killed five Chinese oil workers on Monday whom they had been holding hostage in central Sudan for more than a week, [***]the Foreign Ministry said. Nine Chinese oil workers had been kidnapped, the ministry said. Two escaped on Monday, and two are still being held. The ministry said a Darfur rebel group, the Justice and Equality Movement, was responsible for the kidnapping and killings. An official of the group based in London denied that it was involved. The workers were seized near a small oil field in the state of South Kordofan, which borders Darfur, where they were working under contract for a Chinese-led oil consortium. A ministry spokesman said the kidnappers had demanded that Chinese oil companies leave the region.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Pakistan: Car Bomb Kills 2 Near Courts in Quetta

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/asia/28briefs-CARBOMBKILLS_BRF.html
October 28, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
Pakistan: Car Bomb Kills 2 Near Courts in Quetta
By SALMAN MASOOD [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [followup ] [meanwhile, Pakistan has serious cash shortage] [based on its relation with China during CW, and US China-card policy] [more info on the event that was reported yesterday] [use psci46bb] [*****]
At least two people were killed and 11 wounded Monday when a bomb planted in a parked car exploded in the southwestern city of Quetta. [***]No one claimed

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/asia/28briefs-CARBOMBKILLS_BRF.html
October 28, 2008
World Briefing | Asia
Pakistan: Car Bomb Kills 2 Near Courts in Quetta
By SALMAN MASOOD [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [followup ] [meanwhile, Pakistan has serious cash shortage] [based on its relation with China during CW, and US China-card policy] [more info on the event that was reported yesterday] [use psci46bb] [*****]
At least two people were killed and 11 wounded Monday when a bomb planted in a parked car exploded in the southwestern city of Quetta. [***]No one claimed responsibility for the blast, which occurred near the district courts. A low-level insurgency has simmered in the province of Baluchistan, whose capital is Quetta and which is rich in oil and minerals. Militants there have demanded greater autonomy and a larger share of the national wealth. [no idea if Baluchi insurgents or jihadis] [could be either] [****]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

U.S. Airstrike Kills 20 People in Pakistan

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/asia/28pstan.html
October 28, 2008
U.S. Airstrike Kills 20 People in Pakistan
By ISMAIL KHAN and PIR ZUBAIR SHAH [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [followup ] [meanwhile, Pakistan has serious cash shortage] [based on its relation with China during CW, and US China-card policy] [more info on the event that was reported yesterday] [another example, as far as I can tell, where tactics (change in rules of engagement) is driving policy rather than strategy] [use psci46bb] [*****]
PESHAWAR, Pakistan — An American drone aircraft hit a militant compound in South Waziristan on Sunday night, killing 20 people, including two important local Taliban commanders known for their attacks against American soldiers in Afghanistan, [***] a senior government official and a local resident said Monday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/asia/28pstan.html
October 28, 2008
U.S. Airstrike Kills 20 People in Pakistan
By ISMAIL KHAN and PIR ZUBAIR SHAH [Pakistan] [AfPak] [common tribal belt: Pashtun] [communal violence within and between that has led to breached sovereignty all around but principally from Pakistan’s side] [followup ] [meanwhile, Pakistan has serious cash shortage] [based on its relation with China during CW, and US China-card policy] [more info on the event that was reported yesterday] [another example, as far as I can tell, where tactics (change in rules of engagement) is driving policy rather than strategy] [use psci46bb] [*****]
PESHAWAR, Pakistan — An American drone aircraft hit a militant compound in South Waziristan on Sunday night, killing 20 people, including two important local Taliban commanders known for their attacks against American soldiers in Afghanistan, [***] a senior government official and a local resident said Monday.

One of the dead commanders, Eida Khan, was wanted by the Americans for his cross-border attacks from bases in Waziristan, [***] the government official said. The other commander, Wahweed Ullah, worked with Arabs who were part of Al Qaeda, [***] the local resident said.

Mr. Ullah, in his late 20s, was known as an ideologically committed fighter who specialized in attacks against Americans in Afghanistan, the resident said.

The drone launched a missile attack on a compound in the village of Manduta, close to Wana, the capital of South Waziristan, about 20 miles from the border with Afghanistan. [***]

Mr. Khan and Mr. Ullah, as well as two brothers of Mr. Khan, were affiliated with the militant network of Jalaluddin Haqqani, a senior Taliban figure with close connections to Al Qaeda, [the US has repeatedly gone after Haqqani] [ISI reportedly protects him] [****] said the official and the local resident, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

The strike was part of an escalating campaign by the Bush administration to hit the Taliban and their Qaeda backers at their bases in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

The attack appears to have been the 19th by a remotely piloted Predator aircraft in the tribal areas since the beginning of August. In the first seven months of 2008, there were five such strikes.

The Bush administration has intensified the drone attacks after backing away from using American commandos for ground raids into the tribal belt. A ground assault on Sept. 3 produced an angry public riposte from the chief of the Pakistani Army, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who said he would defend Pakistan’s borders “at all costs” against such intrusions, [****] an unusually strong statement from one ally to another.

Mr. Ullah, who was usually in North Waziristan, was believed to have been visiting the compound in Manduta to pay his respects to the families of those killed in an American drone strike on Friday on a madrasa in North Waziristan run by Mr. Haqqani. [***]

The people killed in the North Waziristan strike came from the area around Manduta, in South Waziristan, the government official and the local resident said.

Mr. Khan was well known to the Pakistani authorities. He was arrested in 2004 and jailed until last year, when he was released during an exchange of prisoners, [***]the government official said.

While the drone attacks appear to be more acceptable to the Pakistani authorities than ground incursions, government officials have complained about the intensity of the strikes and the Americans’ choice of targets. [*****]

The Americans were concentrating on Taliban and Qaeda forces that attack American and coalition troops in Afghanistan but were ignoring militants operating in Pakistan, [I understand why the military would select such targets] [but it’s somewhat disconcerting that tactics—force protection—are driving policy rather than AfPak strategy] [****] a senior Pakistani official in the administration that oversees the tribal region said Monday.

“The Americans are not interested in our bad guys,” the official said. He was referring in particular to Baitullah Mehsud, [I’m not certain, by a long shot, that Mehsud is still alive] [a report circulated in early Oct that he died of kidney failure and I haven’t read a single thing from him since] [****] a Pakistani Taliban leader, who Pakistani authorities say is responsible for planning many of the suicide bombings in the country in the last 18 months.

The Pakistani Army is fighting the Pakistani Taliban in Bajaur, another part of the tribal region to the east of Waziristan, and that conflict appeared to be on the verge of spreading Monday after a suicide bomber rammed his car into a checkpoint operated by paramilitary forces in the Mohmand region.

The attack was the first in Mohmand, an area adjacent to Bajaur. It killed nine guards at the checkpoint, the government said.

The Pakistani Army has said it plans to launch a campaign against the Taliban in Mohmand once it has completed its mission in Bajaur. [****]

The conflict in the tribal region was discussed at a government-sponsored gathering of tribal leaders from Pakistan and Afghanistan in Islamabad on Monday. The meeting is part of a dialogue initiated last year by President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan.

The emphasis at the meeting was on talks between those Taliban willing to renounce violence and the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. That the gathering took place was seen as a sign that the new Pakistani government was willing to participate in a process that had been largely ignored by the former president, [while I don’t think negotiation is possible with jihadis, some Tablibs are less interested in taking jihadi forward from AfPak] [ergo, it may be worthwhile in peeling off soft Taliban supporters] [****] Pervez Musharraf.

The foreign minister of Pakistan, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, echoing a parliamentary resolution last week that encouraged dialogue with willing militants, said, “There is an increasing realization that the use of force alone cannot yield the desired results.”
Ismail Khan reported from Peshawar, and Pir Zubair Shah from Islamabad, Pakistan. Jane Perlez contributed reporting from Peshawar.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

October 27, 2008

An Iraqi Accord and a New U.S. President

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102602370.html
An Iraqi Accord and a New U.S. President
By Walter Pincus
Monday, October 27, 2008; A11 [bush white house] [and increasingly appears the next administration] [NSC level] [bureaucracy] [-ir war] [negotiations over SOFA] [the administration ought to be prepared to declare a victory and withdraw US troops] [a) it’s the best thing for the –iraqi people] [and b) only when the administration calls the –Iraqi bluff will the –iraqi government seriously negotiate SOFA on terms useful to US staying ir –ir for a while with emergency forces] [it would also be a gift for the incoming administration whose transition will be rock, what with global-economic crisis and potential for a 2nd 9/11 any week now!] [followup] [use nsc] [use psci 355, 455] [******]
The status-of-forces agreement that would govern conduct of the U.S. military and its contractors in Iraq beyond 2008 would apparently tie the hands of the next U.S. president in some respects if it was ratified by the Iraqis before Jan. 20. [all the more reason to declare victory and begin withdrawing troops] [***]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102602370.html
An Iraqi Accord and a New U.S. President
By Walter Pincus
Monday, October 27, 2008; A11 [bush white house] [and increasingly appears the next administration] [NSC level] [bureaucracy] [-ir war] [negotiations over SOFA] [the administration ought to be prepared to declare a victory and withdraw US troops] [a) it’s the best thing for the –iraqi people] [and b) only when the administration calls the –Iraqi bluff will the –iraqi government seriously negotiate SOFA on terms useful to US staying ir –ir for a while with emergency forces] [it would also be a gift for the incoming administration whose transition will be rock, what with global-economic crisis and potential for a 2nd 9/11 any week now!] [followup] [use nsc] [use psci 355, 455] [******]
The status-of-forces agreement that would govern conduct of the U.S. military and its contractors in Iraq beyond 2008 would apparently tie the hands of the next U.S. president in some respects if it was ratified by the Iraqis before Jan. 20. [all the more reason to declare victory and begin withdrawing troops] [***]

For example, the next president would have to wait a year if he wanted to pull out of the agreement altogether, according to Article 31, the final section. The current draft says that "cancellation of this agreement requires a written notice provided one year in advance," according to an English translation of the Arab version. [***]

Even modification of the agreement's provisions would be difficult, requiring "written approval of both sides and . . . accordance to constitutional procedures in both countries." That means that if the new president wanted to change any provisions, he would have to get the approval of not only the Iraqi government but also its legislative body. [****]

Neither Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) nor Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) should worry, however. Chances are the Iraqis will not approve the deal. If they do, there probably would be no need for a President Obama to change it: He could order troop reductions before the deadlines without violating the agreement. And a President McCain, if he wanted, could consider the deal a Bush executive agreement that he could change with a stroke of his pen. [***]

To date, the main public focus concerning the draft agreement has been U.S. troop withdrawal deadlines and immunity from local prosecution for American military [***]and civilian government employees charged with crimes in Iraq. But there are many elements that favor U.S. interests.

For example, U.S. aircraft and civilian planes contracted by the United States would be authorized to fly in Iraqi airspace as well as refuel over and land in Iraq without paying taxes or landing fees. Anyone authorized by American officials to board U.S.-owned or contracted aircraft could not be stopped or searched. The same freedoms would apply to U.S. ships and ships contracted to the Defense Department during use of Iraqi ports.

The Iraqis are to provide at no cost special radio frequencies for U.S. forces who are permitted to operate their own wired and wireless communications. Once U.S. forces leave, the frequencies would be returned to the Iraqi government.

American armed forces and civilian employees could enter and exit Iraq using U.S.-issued ID cards and travel documents and could not be asked for anything else. [***] Materials that U.S. forces and contractors brought in to Iraq or exported for use in training and services would not be “subject to search or to license requirements.” Included would be equipment and materials for personal use and consumption. The United States would be required to establish regulations “to ensure no materials or articles of cultural or historical value are exported.”

U.S.-issued driver’s licenses would be accepted for operation of personal cars in Iraq by U.S. forces, civilian government employees and contractors, without Iraqi tests or fees. The same would apply to valid U.S.-issued professional licenses when used in activities related to jobs.

Outgoing mail sent through military postal services would be “exempt from being searched, examined or confiscated by the Iraqi authorities except for the unofficial mail that might be subject to electronic monitoring.” [****]

The agreement would not end U.S. forces' authority to arrest and detain Iraqi citizens without Iraqi warrants. An exception relates to those picked up during military "operations," which typically has been when most Iraqis are seized. In the future, even these Iraqis would have to be turned over to Iraqi authorities within 24 hours. [***] [I know the military would not like this] [but it is there country] [***]

U.S. forces would no longer be permitted to search houses or property without an Iraqi court warrant, [***]although that prohibition also includes an exception for operations undertaken in coordination with Iraqi forces, the current practice.

As for the 18,000 Iraqis now held in U.S. detention facilities, a list of their names and information about them would have to be given to Iraqi authorities when the agreement went into effect. Then, with "complete and active coordination with the Iraqi authorities . . . all detainees in U.S. custody shall be released in a safe and organized fashion," unless the Iraqis wanted to hold them.

On the other side of the ledger, the billions of dollars of U.S. construction on bases and installations in Iraq would become the property of that country.

National security and intelligence reporter Walter Pincus pores over the speeches, reports, transcripts and other documents that flood Washington and every week uncovers the fine print that rarely makes headlines -- but should. If you have any items that fit the bill, please send them to fineprint@washpost.com.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Trail of Odd Anthrax Cells Led FBI to Army Scientist

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102602522.html
Trail of Odd Anthrax Cells Led FBI to Army Scientist
By Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, October 27, 2008; A01 [[bush white house] [remember the anthrax fright shortly after 9/11] [germ warfare from Cold War days] [both sides had active programs] [bureaucracy] [the military and IC] [particularly, doj’s FBI] [the mystery the FBI and IC have been unable to solve for some reason] [it take another strange turn] [Steve Hatfill was leaked as “subject of interest”] [he recently recovered damages from the US govt to tune of $5 million-plus dollars] [here’s the FBI’s version of a lame apology] [use psci 355, 455] [use hydra II] [followup] [congress] [110th congress, 2nd session] [******]
In late October 2001, lab technician Terry Abshire placed a tray of anthrax cells under a microscope and spotted something so peculiar she had to look twice. It was two weeks after the country's worst bioterrorism attack, and Abshire, like others at the Army's Fort Detrick biodefense lab, was caught up in a frenzied search for clues [***]that could help lead to the culprit. Down the hall, Bruce E. Ivins, the respected vaccine specialist, was looking, too.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102602522.html
Trail of Odd Anthrax Cells Led FBI to Army Scientist
By Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, October 27, 2008; A01 [[bush white house] [remember the anthrax fright shortly after 9/11] [germ warfare from Cold War days] [both sides had active programs] [bureaucracy] [the military and IC] [particularly, doj’s FBI] [the mystery the FBI and IC have been unable to solve for some reason] [it take another strange turn] [Steve Hatfill was leaked as “subject of interest”] [he recently recovered damages from the US govt to tune of $5 million-plus dollars] [here’s the FBI’s version of a lame apology] [use psci 355, 455] [use hydra II] [followup] [congress] [110th congress, 2nd session] [******]
In late October 2001, lab technician Terry Abshire placed a tray of anthrax cells under a microscope and spotted something so peculiar she had to look twice. It was two weeks after the country's worst bioterrorism attack, and Abshire, like others at the Army's Fort Detrick biodefense lab, was caught up in a frenzied search for clues [***]that could help lead to the culprit. Down the hall, Bruce E. Ivins, the respected vaccine specialist, was looking, too.

Abshire focused her lens on a moldlike clump. Anthrax bacteria were growing here, but some of the cells were odd: strange shapes, strange textures, strange colors. These were mutants, or "morphs," genetic deviants scattered among the ordinary anthrax cells like chocolate chips in a cookie batter. [***]

Unknowingly, Abshire had discovered a key to solving the anthrax case. But it would take nearly six years to develop the technology to allow FBI investigators to use it. [***]

Ultimately the evolving science led investigators to Ivins and a strikingly original collection of anthrax spores that became the focus of the FBI's probe. In a series of interviews over the past month, FBI agents and scientists described, in ways that the bureau has not previously revealed, how the pieces of the forensic puzzle came together -- often in Ivins's very shadow -- and how they eventually concluded that the eccentric vaccine specialist was the culprit. [***]

Ivins, the FBI discovered, had spent more than a year perfecting what agents called his "ultimate creation" -- his signature blend of highly lethal anthrax spores -- and guarded it so carefully that his lab assistants did not know where he kept it. When the FBI later asked Ivins for anthrax spores from his lab, he deliberately bypassed his prize spore collection, agents said, and gave them a false sample. [***]

Ivins's talents also helped give him away, they said. Exceptionally pure concentrations of anthrax spores were Ivins's trademark and placed him in an exclusive class. In the end, the FBI concluded, he was the only one with access to the deadly spores who also possessed the skills and equipment needed to create the extraordinarily powerful bioweapon that was mailed to U.S. Senate offices and news organizations in the fall of 2001.

"He wasn't an expert. He was the expert," said a senior FBI investigator, who answered questions about the still-open case on the condition of anonymity. [***]

Yet the forensic search that started in the glare of Abshire's microscope turned out to be far more arduous and costly than anyone could have predicted. Conducted almost entirely out of the public eye, it was a journey that required use of techniques that had never been tried in a criminal investigation. Some of the technology needed to solve the case had not been invented. [***] And the FBI's top science advisers were warning that the effort would fail.

"We were looking for a needle in a haystack," said Scott Decker, a geneticist who became the FBI's science team leader, "and no one knew if there was even a needle there."

Many outside experts and some lawmakers dismiss the government's case against Ivins as circumstantial, while Ivins's former colleagues and friends argue that he was incapable, technically and constitutionally, of committing an act of mass murder. "Bruce Ivins was a victim of a vicious plot," said Ayaad Assaad, a toxicologist who once worked with Ivins at Fort Detrick, in Maryland.

The questions have prompted an independent review of the FBI's forensic case by a panel of the National Academy of Sciences. [***]In an Oct. 16 letter to the academy, Rep. Rush D. Holt (D-N.J.), a member of the House intelligence committee, asked the panel to investigate whether the bureau's scientific discoveries were "inconsistent with the FBI's conclusions."

The FBI defends its case against Ivins as well as the seven years it took to solve the crime -- an unavoidable delay, officials say, given that the bureau had to invent an entirely new investigative field, microbial forensics, to accomplish it. Investigators say more evidence will be revealed in the coming weeks, some of it in peer-reviewed scientific journals and the rest in documents that will shed new light on Ivins himself. "A lot of [the investigators] probably know Dr. Bruce Ivins better than his own family," the senior investigator said.

But while bureau officials view the evidence against Ivins as overwhelming, any chance at full certainty was lost when Ivins took his own life in July, said Ed Montooth, the FBI special agent in charge of the investigation the bureau dubbed "Amerithrax."

"We were truly disgusted after we knew he had killed himself," Montooth said, "because we knew the only way we'd have justice was to be in court."
Ivins's 'Ultimate Creation'
It was intended for garden-variety animal experiments, but the collection of anthrax spores known as RMR-1029 was anything but ordinary. Ivins, its creator, had devoted a year to perfecting it, mixing 34 different batches of bacteria-laden broth and distilling them into a single liter of pure lethality. [****]

The finished product, a muddy, off-white liquid in a glass flask the size of a small coffee pot, was the greatest single concentration of deadly anthrax bacteria in the country, FBI investigators said.

Ivins began work on it in 1996 with the goal of creating a large repository of highly virulent Bacillus anthracis spores that could be used by his fellow scientists at the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases, or USAMRIID, for years to come. To measure the effectiveness of new anthrax vaccines, the drugs have to be tested against a potent form of bacteria that remained the same from one experiment to the next.

The art of "spore preparation" is a tedious job often relegated to novices and technicians. But Ivins, a veteran researcher with decades of experience, was naturally good at it, according to FBI officials and USAMRIID scientists. With RMR-1029, Ivins established an anthrax gold standard.

"It was his ultimate creation," said Jason D. Bannan, an FBI microbiologist assigned to the Amerithrax case. "This was the culmination of a lot of hard work."

But Ivins could not have known that RMR-1029 contained genetic mutants, in relatively high numbers. A batch of spores like RMR-1029 might be expected to contain, at most, one mutated variant. [***]But Ivins's flask, because of its unusual pedigree, contained five. [***]

Without knowing it, Ivins had provided the FBI a rare clue that in time would lead them to his lab.
The Hunt for Mutants
Within days after letters laden with anthrax microbes reached New York and Washington, Fort Detrick had become the scientific epicenter of the FBI investigation. It had a resident corps of anthrax specialists as well as numerous biocontainment laboratories where deadly microbes could be handled. Dozens of the lab's white coats -- including Ivins -- joined FBI scientists in the search for the culprit.

The experts quickly established that the attacker had used the so-called Ames strain, a virulent form of anthrax bacteria that was the strain of choice within the Army's biodefense complex. [***]They also concluded, by November 2001, that the attack strain had not been altered: The spores were not drug-resistant and contained no foreign additives to make them more lethal. It was a detail the FBI would not disclose publicly for six years. [***]

Top FBI officials hoped that science could provide a link to the bioterrorist, but they soon grasped the difficulty of the task. They searched for traces of human DNA in the anthrax powder, and in the envelopes, but found none.

But what if there were something unique about the spores themselves? The anthrax experts who served as consultants weren't encouraging. Ames-strain bacteria was essentially identical wherever it was found, the advisers said.

"There is Ames and Ames and Ames," said Decker, the science team leader. If the investigators could find even one clear marker, "we'd be pretty lucky," he said.

The breakthrough the FBI sought came not from a big-name scientist but from a technician who had spent years studying anthrax bacteria under a microscope.

Terry Abshire had been tasked with growing colonies of anthrax bacteria from spores recovered from one of the mailings. When the 56-year-old Frederick resident studied the cells, she noticed that a few colonies were different in subtle ways, so she allowed the bacteria to grow for a longer period so as to check again. [***]

"They looked different -- different colors, different textures," said Richard Langham, an FBI scientist who was assigned to work at the Fort Detrick lab. He said it was Abshire's 20 years of experience that allowed her to spot the subtleties.

"A new postdoc working with anthrax probably would not have noticed," he said.

The FBI was fortunate: Not only were there multiple mutations among the attack strain, but they also were the kinds that led to easily detectable physical changes.

Once the mutants were found, FBI scientists could begin pinpointing the subtle alterations in the spores' DNA code that caused them to morph. It took scientists until early 2004 to find all the altered genes and to develop special tests to help find the mutations in other samples of anthrax bacteria. [***]

Even a single genetic mutation is unique, and the FBI had discovered five in the spores used in the anthrax attacks. Now investigators just needed to find the same genetic fingerprint in anthrax spores in the possession of a presumed bioterrorist, [***] somewhere in the world.
The Search Narrows
While some FBI scientists were analyzing genetic mutations, others were scouring the planet for repositories of Ames-strain bacteria. To their surprise, Ames turned out to be quite rare, with only 15 U.S. institutions and three foreign ones possessing live, virulent Ames. [****]

Samples of Ames were collected and added to a repository the FBI had established at Fort Detrick. In a process that ended only in late 2006, bureau scientists picked up 1,072 samples of anthrax bacteria and tested each for mutations identical to the ones in the bioterrorist's letters.

By early 2007, the FBI had a few direct hits, yet the results were perplexing. Each of the matching samples could be traced to Ivins's lab, but only indirectly. Ivins had shared anthrax bacteria with other researchers, and some of them had turned in samples containing the mutations. But Ivins's lab tested clean. He had given the FBI a vial of anthrax bacteria with no mutations. [****]

Bureau officials decided to look again. Ivins, they found, had turned in two samples from his lab. The first was rejected because Ivins had not followed the FBI's detailed instructions and had used the wrong type of test tube. Ivins was asked for a second sample, and this time, investigators deduced, he tried to deceive them. He bypassed his exclusive reserve of spores -- the one he used in his experiments -- and turned in something different. [***]Later tests to determine the origin of the substitute sample came up blank. "Our experts could not tell us where it came from," a senior investigator said.

FBI agents searched Ivins's lab and found the flask labeled RMR-1029. Tests showed it was pure, highly concentrated Ames anthrax bacteria, with genetic mutations identical to those in the attack strain. [****]

Back at the bureau's Washington field office, agents were reconstructing the history of RMR-1029. A giant flow chart, covering most of a wall, recorded each discovery about the origins of the spores and what Ivins did with them. But the agents wondered: Could others, besides Ivins, have gotten access to the flask of spores? [******]

The question drives much of the skepticism about the FBI's case. At a news conference in August, bureau officials estimated that as many as 100 people potentially had access to the biocontainment lab where Ivins kept his collections. Investigators have maintained that other possible suspects were ruled out, but they have never explained how. It is one of the gaps that independent experts and lawmakers have raised since Ivins's death. [****]

In interviews, FBI officials said the list of 100 names included USAMRIID scientists as well as anyone with even a tenuous connection to Ivins's lab, such as visitors or janitors. Each person was investigated, though most could not have gotten to the spores under any reasonable scenario the investigators could construct.

For one thing, no one besides Ivins seems to have known where they were kept. The plain, triangle-shaped storage flask was one of many kept in plastic tubs inside a refrigerated storage room in Ivins's restricted lab. It had only a handwritten label -- RMR-1029, shorthand for "reference material received, No. 1029." When spores were needed for experiments, Ivins alone would retrieve them. "His own people who worked with him on a daily basis didn't know which flask it was," [***]Langham said.

Initially, agents thought Ivins divided his spores into two flasks and kept one in a different building, which would have increased the number of people with potential access. That belief was based on a lab notebook entry that turned out to be erroneous, agents said. [***]

Still, dozens of people were cleared at various times to enter USAMRIID's Building 1425, where Ivins worked and kept his spore collection. Each had to be investigated, even those who lacked the basic knowledge to handle highly lethal bacteria. "An animal handler might have had access," said Bannan, "but he would not have had the capability. And he probably would have expired by now." [***]

Simply obtaining the microbes would have been only the first hurdle. The FBI is convinced that the bioterrorist did not merely steal spores from RMR-1029, but also regrew them and converted them into a highly concentrated powder. And then he repeated the process. [**]

Differences between the two grades of anthrax powders used in the attacks -- the earlier batch sent to New York news outlets was coarser and darker than the powder mailed to the Senate -- confirm that there were at least two production runs. Bureau officials knew they were looking for someone who had repeated access to Ivins's flask as well as talent for sophisticated spore preparations. [****]

The list of suspects narrowed, officials said, until only one was left: Ivins. Ivins alone created and controlled the distinctive collection of anthrax cells that provided the seeds for the attacks. And he was the undisputed master at manipulating the bacteria into dense concentrations of deadly spores. While graduate school microbiologists could have performed most of the tasks, Ivins had the experience and the “good set of hands” required to achieve a spore preparation of such quality, a government scientist said.

“When you go to the true experts and ask them how many people can develop [anthrax spores] into something with this purity and this concentration, they shake their heads,” said Montooth, the lead Amerithrax investigator. “Some will say there are perhaps six. Others will say maybe a dozen.” [***]

Ivins normally worked with liquid anthrax spore solutions, not dry powders, investigators acknowledge. Ivins's colleagues insist that he had no experience with "dry aerosols" of anthrax spores and would not have known how to make them. [***]

But drying the spores turned out to be no obstacle at all, FBI scientists said. It required only one more step, using a common laboratory machine known as a lyophilizer. Ivins had one in his lab.

"Because he grew spores on a daily basis, he was in a position to make [the powder], and no one would be the wiser," Montooth said.

Would the FBI's evidence have stood the challenge of a court trial? Paul Kemp, a lawyer who represented Ivins, dismissed the government's case as an "orchestrated dance of carefully worded statements, heaps of innuendo and a staggering lack of real evidence."

Bureau officials said they feel cheated at being deprived of the opportunity to prove otherwise. The resentment spilled over in the early hours of July 27, when investigators first learned of Ivins's drug overdose, said Montooth, who recalled getting 253 text messages from fellow agents within minutes after the news broke. For the next week, the members of his team barely slept, Montooth said, because they knew Ivins's suicide meant they "would never get to do what we wanted to do, which was to go to court."

The only solace, he said, came on the day the Amerithrax team sat down with family members of the victims of the attacks. In an FBI conference room, Montooth laid out the still-secret details of the seven-year investigation.

"They thanked us," Montooth said, recalling the families' reaction. "They said, 'We believe you got the right guy.' "
Staff researcher Julie Tate contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

U.S. Takes to Air to Hit Militants Inside Pakistan

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/washington/27intel.html
October 27, 2008
U.S. Takes to Air to Hit Militants Inside Pakistan
By MARK MAZZETTI and ERIC SCHMITT [bush white house] [decision was made in June-July by NSC principals] [AfPak] [sadly, the decision came as result of two few troops and increasing coalition casualties] [why?] [in a word, -ir] [bureaucracy] [gsave] [from outsiders, fears that America has overmilitarized its foreign policy] [not an uncommon refrain—predates George W] [use psci 355, 455] [cross archive in external] [*****]
WASHINGTON — The White House has backed away from using American commandos for further ground raids into Pakistan after furious complaints from its government, relying instead on an intensifying campaign of airstrikes by the Central Intelligence Agency [so it is principally CIA] [***] against militants in the Pakistani mountains.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/washington/27intel.html
October 27, 2008
U.S. Takes to Air to Hit Militants Inside Pakistan
By MARK MAZZETTI and ERIC SCHMITT [bush white house] [decision was made in June-July by NSC principals] [AfPak] [sadly, the decision came as result of two few troops and increasing coalition casualties] [why?] [in a word, -ir] [bureaucracy] [gsave] [from outsiders, fears that America has overmilitarized its foreign policy] [not an uncommon refrain—predates George W] [use psci 355, 455] [cross archive in external] [*****]
WASHINGTON — The White House has backed away from using American commandos for further ground raids into Pakistan after furious complaints from its government, relying instead on an intensifying campaign of airstrikes by the Central Intelligence Agency [so it is principally CIA] [***] against militants in the Pakistani mountains.

According to American and Pakistani officials, attacks by remotely piloted Predator aircraft have increased sharply in frequency and scope in the past three months.

Through Sunday, there were at least 18 Predator strikes since the beginning of August, some deep inside Pakistan’s tribal areas, compared with 5 strikes during the first seven months of 2008. [I have described elsewhere as tactics driving policy rather than strategy] [***]

At the same time, however, officials said that relying on airstrikes alone, the United States would be unable to weaken Al Qaeda’s grip in the tribal areas permanently. Within the government, advocates of the ground raids have argued that only by sending Special Operations forces into Pakistan can the United States successfully capture suspected operatives and interrogate them for information about top Qaeda leaders. [that is doubtless true but it’s also doubtless problematic] [a) angers Pakistanis; b) makes Zardari less likely to cooperate with US; c) raises a host of issues involving US forces who could be taken captive by jihadis in Pakitstan and beheaded on video posted on web] [imagine the outcry and the momentum to go bigger, so on] [a slippery slope] [****]

The decision to focus on an intensified Predator campaign using Hellfire missiles appears to reflect dwindling options on the part of the White House for striking a blow against Al Qaeda in the Bush administration’s waning days.

After months of debate within the administration and mounting frustration over Pakistan’s failure to carry out more aggressive counterterrorism operations, President Bush finally gave his approval in July [***]for ground missions inside Pakistan.

But the only American ground mission known to have taken place was a Special Operations raid on Sept. 3, in which the roughly two dozen people killed included some civilians. [***]American officials say there has not been another commando operation since.

American officials acknowledge that following the Sept. 3 raid they were surprised by the intensity of the Pakistani response, which included an unannounced visit to Washington, three weeks after the incursion, by the country’s national security adviser, [***] Mahmud Ali Durrani. He registered his anger in person with top White House officials.

A senior administration official said Sunday that no tacit agreement had been reached to allow increased Predator strikes in exchange for a backing off from additional American ground raids, an option the officials said remained on the table. But Pakistani officials have made clear in public statements that they regard the Predator attacks as a less objectionable violation of Pakistani sovereignty.

“There’s always a balance between respecting full Pakistani sovereignty, even in places where they’re not capable of exercising that sovereignty, and the need for our force protection,” [****] [it doesn’t appear to me that they have respected said balance in past few months] [***] said the administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Top American officials have justified the Sept. 3 ground raid as a self-defense response against militants who use havens in Pakistan to launch attacks against American and allied forces in Afghanistan. Those attacks have increased by about 30 percent from a year ago, according to military officials.

As part of the intensified attacks in recent months, the C.I.A. has expanded its list of targets in Pakistan and has gained approval from the government there to bolster eavesdropping operations in the border region, [****]according to United States officials.

Once largely reserved for missions to kill senior Arab Qaeda operatives, the Predator is increasingly being used to strike Pakistani militants and even trucks carrying rockets to resupply fighters in Afghanistan. [that is a waste of a precious resource] [though I can certainly understand why the military feels compelled demand more of them] [I imagine there’s a story there of friction between CIA and tactical commanders] [***]

Many of the Predator strikes are taking place as deep as 25 miles into Pakistani territory, not just along the border.

Spokesmen for the White House and the C.I.A. declined to comment for this article.

The information about the American operations inside Pakistan was described in interviews by a dozen military and civilian officials from the United States and Pakistan, who insisted on anonymity because of diplomatic concerns and because details remained classified.

While Pakistan is now headed by a new civilian government, under President Asif Ali Zardari, the tense discussions between the countries over counterterrorism operations appear to echo at least some of the uneasiness that long characterized the partnership between Mr. Bush and Pervez Musharraf, [***]the former president. He was defeated in parliamentary elections in February and left office in August.

Husain Haqqani, Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, told the Council on Foreign Relations this month that the two nations were cooperating in deploying “strategic equipment that is used against specific targets.” [****]

On Oct. 16, a Predator strike in South Waziristan killed Khalid Habib, a senior Qaeda operative. [***] But the strikes sometimes have unintended consequences. On Sept. 8, one in Miranshah on a compound owned by a Taliban leader, Jalaluddin Haqqani, failed to kill him but did kill women and children. On Aug. 27, a Predator strike near the village of Wana missed its target; it is unclear whether civilians were killed.

Senior military and counterterrorism officials say the increased Predator strikes have disrupted planning, pushed some insurgents deeper into Pakistan, prompted some militant commanders to post additional sentries and forced the militants to use their cellphones and satellite phones, which American eavesdropping operations can monitor.

“It’s fair to say that it has caused key Al Qaeda figures to focus even more on their safety and security,” said a Western counterterrorism official. “It has caused them to be more suspicious of people they don’t know well, and it also has caused frictions between Al Qaeda and tribal elements.” [that strikes me as a good unitended consequence] [***]

But the official acknowledged that the intensified operations have failed to shake Al Qaeda’s hold on the tribal areas. “Things haven’t gotten to the point that they would even consider another option,” he said.

Pakistan and the United States are also taking steps to repair the relationship between their intelligence services, which reached a nadir this summer after evidence emerged that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate had a hand in the July bombing of India’s embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan.

Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Pakistan’s top military official, recently replaced not only the ISIs commander but also four midlevel generals believed to have had advance knowledge of the embassy bombing.

The C.I.A. has also put a new station chief in Islamabad, replacing one whose tour of duty had ended and whose relationship with the ISI had become contentious. [***]

Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the new head of the ISI, is in Washington this week and is scheduled to meet with the C.I.A. director, Michael V. Hayden. [***]

Pentagon officials have publicly praised the Pakistan Army’s aggressive campaign against militants in the Bajaur tribal agency. But privately, some American officials are wincing at a full-scale military operation that is taking a heavy toll on civilians as well as insurgents, and has not diminished the cross-border attacks.

“They don’t have a concept of counterinsurgency operations,” one senior American officer said. “It’s generally a heavy punch and then they leave.” [****]

More than 200,000 people have now fled the attack helicopters, warplanes, artillery and mortar fire of the Pakistani Army, and some officials in Washington say the Pakistani government has been slow to follow up with food, water and other assistance to help displaced villagers. The United States has approved $8 million to aid the refugee effort.

Still, a senior official in the State Department said the situation was a vast improvement from years of Pakistan’s off-again-on-again military operations in the tribal areas.

“They have shown more fight than ever before,” that official said of the Pakistanis. “They show no desire to negotiate with the militants.” [***] [odd thing to say given the spate of reports on both governments consideration of peeling off Talib from global jihadis] [***]

The official said that Pakistan’s civilian government had been moved to act in part by large-scale terrorist attacks in Pakistan, like the Sept. 20 bombing at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, which killed more than 50 people.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Wrong Way in Pakistan

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102601765.html
Wrong Way in Pakistan
By Marvin G. Weinbaum
Monday, October 27, 2008; A13 [oped] [on recent flurry of breaches of Pakistan’s sovereignty] [my view has been expressed in these pages repeatedly] [once more: it may be necessary to do it for high-profile al Qaeda but it should be rare, avoid noncombatants, and be for truly high-profile jihadis] [****]
In its eagerness to reverse the mounting insurgency in Afghanistan, the United States has embarked on a policy course that could shatter our vital strategic partnership with Pakistan. By allowing American combat forces to freely conduct raids into Pakistani territory, a move that President Bush authorized in July, [***] the United States intends to pressure Pakistani leaders to step up the fight against militants ensconced in the borderlands. But this policy threatens cooperation between the two countries, possibly to the breaking point.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102601765.html
Wrong Way in Pakistan
By Marvin G. Weinbaum
Monday, October 27, 2008; A13 [oped] [on recent flurry of breaches of Pakistan’s sovereignty] [my view has been expressed in these pages repeatedly] [once more: it may be necessary to do it for high-profile al Qaeda but it should be rare, avoid noncombatants, and be for truly high-profile jihadis] [****]
In its eagerness to reverse the mounting insurgency in Afghanistan, the United States has embarked on a policy course that could shatter our vital strategic partnership with Pakistan. By allowing American combat forces to freely conduct raids into Pakistani territory, a move that President Bush authorized in July, [***] the United States intends to pressure Pakistani leaders to step up the fight against militants ensconced in the borderlands. But this policy threatens cooperation between the two countries, possibly to the breaking point.

Pakistani insurgents, initially staggered by the U.S. reaction to the Sept. 11 attacks, have rebuilt their organizations in the border regions; from those havens, they launch attacks against U.S. and allied forces in Afghanistan. [***] The 80,000 to 120,000 Pakistani troops that have engaged the insurgents since 2003 have been funded by the United States at a cost of $1 billion a year. Yet whether it is because troops are ill-equipped, poorly trained or unmotivated, operations have been inconsistent and incomplete. [plus which they are trained for the next war with India not counter insurgency ops] [***]

As the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda have regrouped, Washington has come to question the sincerity of Pakistan's effort. U.S. officials, concerned that elements in Pakistan's security forces are sympathetic to the insurgents and more interested in protecting than pursuing them, understandably want to deal with the threat if Pakistan will not or cannot. [***]

But there is too much at stake for the United States to risk dangerous, misguided policies. Neither intrusions by U.S. Special Forces nor missile attacks by drones will, by themselves, take out the thousands of insurgents and their allies along the frontier. [***] They also cannot seriously disrupt the global terrorist network. No one proposes deploying the tens of thousands of U.S. troops that it would take to saturate the tribal region and sustain any successes. And fighting a united tribal nation on its turf would cause massive civilian casualties. Even a more covert U.S. approach, designed to play radicalized tribal groups against one another, would likely reveal that their hatred for America exceeds any historic or personal animosities.

So what is left? There simply are no quick fixes. The cooperation of the Pakistani military and its intelligence services, working with a civilian government, remains indispensable. [***]At the moment, however, the Pakistani people offer no support; polls reveal that fewer than 20 percent of Pakistanis view the United States favorably. [on the other hand, even fewer view al Qaeda favorably] [some 5% or fewer in poll earlier this year or late last] [***] The U.S. invasion of Iraq galvanized their belief that, as in Afghanistan, the war was essentially about defeating Muslims. The United States alienated even our Pakistani friends by pursuing policies that came to be perceived as trying to salvage the presidency of Pervez Musharraf and thwart democratic processes.

While there is some comfort to be found in President Asif Ali Zardari's views on combating terrorism, having Zadari as Musharraf's replacement in the role of U.S. point man will not help to build build a popular consensus against extremism. Just last week the Parliament voted unanimously to condemn the latest U.S. missile attack on Pakistani territory. If Zardari tries to blunt criticism of the United States, his governing coalition could be threatened. And the likely victor as prime minister in a new election, Nawaz Sharif, has a strongly jaundiced view of U.S. involvement in the frontier and Afghanistan.

Proposals geared toward helping the United States regain the trust of Pakistanis are under consideration. Most, like the Biden-Lugar bill, recognize the importance of nonmilitary assistance that addresses Pakistan's endemic social problems and infrastructure deficits. Measures that help Pakistan weather its economic crisis will have an effect, as will a more favorable trade policy, especially on textiles. The United States can also be more convincing in its commitment to civilian rule and democracy.

By contrast, openly violating Pakistan's territory will make matters worse. And Pakistan can easily retaliate. Most supplies for U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan are delivered to the port of Karachi and then shipped by road to Afghanistan. Early last month, trucks seeking to cross the border were stopped, a warning of what might happen if U.S. raids continue. Pakistan's most senior military officer, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, has said the army will defend Pakistani sovereignty at all costs. Cross-border raids risk provoking direct confrontation between U.S. and Pakistani forces and could accelerate the growing dissension in military ranks over continued Pakistani alignment with the United States.

Terrorist sanctuaries are unacceptable. But eliminating them requires Pakistan's cooperation. The bombing of the Marriott in Islamabad last month was a reminder that we are fighting different faces of the same war. [***]Continuing to carry out uninvited, inconclusive U.S. cross-border attacks will make finding cooperation with Pakistan more elusive.
The writer is a scholar in residence at the Middle East Institute and a former State Department intelligence and research analyst on Pakistan and Afghanistan.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Where Does the Vice President Belong?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/opinion/27reynolds.html
October 27, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor
Where Does the Vice President Belong?
By GLENN HARLAN REYNOLDS [oped] [the role of veep] [use role theory] [****]
THE presidential campaign has taken a detour into a dispute over the constitutional status of the vice presidency. It all started when Sarah Palin asserted in her debate with Joe Biden that the vice president should play an important role in the legislative branch.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/opinion/27reynolds.html
October 27, 2008
Op-Ed Contributor
Where Does the Vice President Belong?
By GLENN HARLAN REYNOLDS [oped] [the role of veep] [use role theory] [****]
THE presidential campaign has taken a detour into a dispute over the constitutional status of the vice presidency. It all started when Sarah Palin asserted in her debate with Joe Biden that the vice president should play an important role in the legislative branch.

Ms. Palin has been roundly mocked for her claim. But she was probably right.

Article I of the Constitution, which describes the authority of the legislative branch, says that “the vice president of the United States shall be president of the Senate, but shall have no vote, unless they be equally divided.” [***]Aside from the job of replacing a president who dies or is unable to serve, the only vice presidential duties that are spelled out in the Constitution are legislative in character. [but only when congress is deadlocked] [so no independent role] [****]

But if the vice president is a legislative official, then the exercise of executive power by the vice president raises important constitutional questions related to the separation of powers. The Supreme Court has held on more than one occasion that legislative officials cannot exercise executive power. The Court would likely dub this a “political question” that is beyond its purview, [***]but Congress is empowered to remedy this sort of thing by legislation.

And Congress should do just that: pass a law to prohibit the vice president from exercising executive power. [****]Extensive vice presidential involvement in the executive branch — the role enjoyed by Dick Cheney and Al Gore — is not only unconstitutional, but also a bad idea.

The most important function of a vice president is to serve as a spare president. Using the spare president in the ordinary course of business is as unwise as driving on one’s spare tire. Spares should be kept pristine, for when they are really needed.

If the president resigns or is removed from office, a vice president who has been involved in the activities of the executive branch is also likely to be at risk for impeachment. Just as important, a vice president who is enmeshed in the affairs of the president cannot offer a fresh start for the executive branch.

The joke may turn out to be on Mr. Biden, who upbraided Ms. Palin for her reading of the Constitution. Presumably Mr. Biden thinks Barack Obama chose him for the same reason that George W. Bush chose Mr. Cheney, [the irony is even richer] [if McCain wins, he’ll almost certainly put Palin in dark hole] [he’ll give her symbolic portfolio to assuage social conservatives but I don’t imagine he’ll let her anywhere near NSC] [***] as a way of making up for a lack of experience in foreign affairs. Mr. Bush’s choice led him to rely on Mr. Cheney in ways that were unprecedented — and unconstitutional.

Let’s hope Mr. Obama disappoints Mr. Biden. [hear, hear] [***] The Constitution and the best interests of the country suggest that the best place for the vice president is in the Senate.
Glenn Harlan Reynolds is a professor of law at the University of Tennessee.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

As China Goes, So Goes ...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/opinion/27mon1.html
October 27, 2008
Editorial
As China Goes, So Goes ...
[editorial] [how China has become integral to global economy] [****]
As the world tips into recession, China’s economic decisions could affect how other countries fare in the downturn. [***]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/opinion/27mon1.html
October 27, 2008
Editorial
As China Goes, So Goes ...
[editorial] [how China has become integral to global economy] [****]
As the world tips into recession, China’s economic decisions could affect how other countries fare in the downturn. [***]

Over the last 30 years, China has hitched its economy to the industrial world, exporting cheap goods to the United States and other developed nations, building up an enormous trade surplus that will hit about $400 billion this year. [***]As those industrial economies sputter, China is now in a position to pick up some of the slack: selling more of its own goods at home and buying more from the rest of the world.

To get China’s consumers to spend, the government will need to spend more at home, investing in public works projects and providing more social benefits — including health insurance and pensions — so its citizens don’t feel they have to save so much for a rainy day.

This is clearly in Beijing’s interest, though China’s leaders are still clinging to the old export strategy. [***]

China is already feeling the impact of a slower world economy. Both economic growth and export growth have braked sharply. The slowdown threatens job creation, direly needed to absorb millions of rural Chinese seeking employment in the cities.

Over the summer the Chinese central bank put an end to its short-lived policy of allowing the yuan to gradually appreciate against the dollar, a policy aimed at reducing inflation that would also raise the price of Chinese exports. Last week, the Chinese government announced that it would increase its rebates on taxes charged to exporters — giving them a further boost.

But trying to capture a bigger share of shrinking markets in the United States, Europe and Japan — just as they tip into recession — won’t provide China much of an economic lift. What it will do is contribute to the slowdown in the rest of the world by hogging demand. China would get much more bang for the buck if it focused on stimulating its own domestic markets for goods and services.

Given the desperate mess Washington has made of its own financial system, few countries are eager to take American advice these days. After years of Congressional China-bashing, Beijing may be especially resistant. [***]

Still, it is in China’s interest to change. China has grown 13-fold over the last 30 years, thanks to hypercharged exports and white hot investment. But its economy is lopsided. Consumer spending amounts to little over a third of economic production, probably the lowest share in any country in the world. And its overwhelming dependence on exports has made it overwhelmingly vulnerable to changes in world demand.

The government in Beijing, which is running a huge budget surplus, also has money to spare.

The government has announced some measures to fuel domestic spending —including a tax cut on home purchases to revive an ailing housing market and a vague plan to invest in public works. But it must do more to unlock the savings of its citizens and encourage them to spend [***].

To do that it needs to rebuild the system of social insurance that fell apart when state-owned industries collapsed and were replaced by the private sector. Government investment in things like health care, education and pensions would help develop China’s middle class and its domestic market.

A boost to consumer spending would undoubtedly help China weather the economic storm. But by raising Chinese imports and reducing its dependence on exports, it would also help the rest of the world.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

OPEC’s Woes

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/opinion/27mon3.html
October 27, 2008
Editorial
OPEC’s Woes
[editorial] [OPEC] [this is first time in my life that OPEC has controlled the price versus the world controlling OPEC] [****]
Oil producers are understandably desperate. In the space of only three months, crude oil prices have fallen by more than half — slashing their export earnings and cutting into their oil-dependent budgets.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/opinion/27mon3.html
October 27, 2008
Editorial
OPEC’s Woes
[editorial] [OPEC] [this is first time in my life that OPEC has controlled the price versus the world controlling OPEC] [****]
Oil producers are understandably desperate. In the space of only three months, crude oil prices have fallen by more than half — slashing their export earnings and cutting into their oil-dependent budgets.

Still, OPEC must tread extremely carefully as it attempts to put a floor under oil prices. The sharp decline in the price of energy has been the only sliver of good news amid a tide of financial woe enveloping the world. [***]It reduces inflationary pressure and gives more space for central banks to cut interest rates.

If production cuts were to ignite another run-up in oil prices, they could send the world economy into an even deeper slump from which it could take a very long time to recover.

OPEC’s decision at its emergency meeting on Friday to cut output by 1.5 million barrels a day — about 5 percent of production — did not immediately stop oil’s slide. After the announcement, Brent crude declined to about $60, [the drop has been almost as incredible as the rise] [**] way below the $145 or so that it fetched last July.

The reason is that demand is collapsing. Analysts expect global demand for crude to fall this year for the first time in a quarter-century, as consumption slows in the high-growth economies of Asia. [***]In the United States, the world’s biggest consumer of energy, it has already fallen to a five-year low.

The decline is proving devastating to oil producers that until recently were swimming in petrodollars. Iran, which has aggressively used oil revenue to pay for expensive social programs, wants prices above $90. Venezuela, which is also using the money to finance allied governments in neighboring countries, is said to be desperate for prices to go back above $100.

The price hawks are pressing hard for deeper production cuts. But oil exporters should resist these calls. It is one thing to try to restore stability to world oil markets, a necessary condition to sustain investments in new sources of energy that will be needed down the road. But at this juncture, trying to jack up oil prices is unacceptable. That would condemn the world economy to an even deeper slowdown and, incidentally, impair demand for a very long time.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Global Markets Shudder, but Wall Street Steadies

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/business/28markets.html
October 28, 2008
Global Markets Shudder, but Wall Street Steadies
By DAVID JOLLY and BETTINA WASSENER [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
One of Wall Street’s worst months in history reached its final week on Monday, but the impulse to sell showed few signs of abating.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/business/28markets.html
October 28, 2008
Global Markets Shudder, but Wall Street Steadies
By DAVID JOLLY and BETTINA WASSENER [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
One of Wall Street’s worst months in history reached its final week on Monday, but the impulse to sell showed few signs of abating.

Shares marched lower again as trading began in New York, extending losses that stretched around the globe. The Dow Jones industrials fell more than 150 points or 1.6 percent at the open, mirroring sharp declines in Europe and Asia that included a 6.4 percent drop in the Nikkei, sending the Japanese index to its lowest level since 1982.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 2 percent and the Nasdaq composite index lost 1.9 percent.

Investors were awaiting the opening of the Federal Reserve’s new program to purchase commercial paper, one of the central bank’s efforts to unlock the flow of credit. The New York Federal Reserve said Monday on its Web site that it would charge 1.88 percent for unsecured commercial paper and 3.88 percent for asset-backed commercial paper.

Borrowing rates among banks fell over the weekend, and investors hope that credit markets will ease further this week. A report on home sales from the government is due at 10 a.m. [***]

The worldwide sell-off has erased more than 51 percent of the value of global stock markets this year. [***]On Monday, currency market traders were keeping nervous watch for central bank intervention, after Group of 7 finance and monetary officials expressed concern about the recent excessive volatility in the yen’s exchange rates.

“We are concerned about the recent excessive volatility in the exchange rate of the yen and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability,” the G-7 statement said. “We continue to monitor markets closely and cooperate as appropriate.”

If intervention were carried out, central bankers would likely sell yen for other currencies, driving down the yen and providing support to others.

In early afternoon trading, the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 index, a barometer of euro zone blue chips, fell 3.5 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in London lost 2.1 percent. The CAC 40 in Paris was down 4.7 percent, and the DAX in Frankfurt 3 percent.

In Tokyo, the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average fell 6.4 percent to reach its lowest closing level since October 1982. [****]

The rise of the yen, which reduces profits earned overseas when they are converted into yen, and the slowing of key export markets, has severely depressed the outlook for the Japanese economy. [the Yen near parity] [that is, 1Yen : $100] [***]

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index fell 12.7 percent to the lowest level since at least mid-2004. “We’re seeing a lot of panic selling,” Peter Lai, an investment manager at DBS Vickers in Hong Kong, told The Associated Press. “People are just liquidating,” he said, adding: “Nobody can predict where the bottom is.”

In Sydney, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the central bank, said it had stepped into the foreign exchange market Friday to support its plummeting currency. The S&P/ASX 200 stock market index fell 1.6 percent Monday.

In Seoul, South Korea, the Kospi index bucked the trend, managing a gain of 0.8 percent after the Bank of Korea slashed its key interest rate by a record three-quarters of a percentage point to 4.25 percent, illustrating the depth of concern over the state of the country’s economy.

Like their Japanese rivals, South Korea’s manufacturers are heavily dependent on exports, and fears that consumers in export markets like the United States will cut spending as the economy slows have hit stocks hard.

In Japan, the global turmoil and recession fears prompted expectations for added government measures to prop up the stock market and weaken the yen.

Shoichi Nakagawa, the finance minister, said he was watching the currency market with great interest. His comments were read in the market as a warning of possible intervention in the currency markets. The yen’s appreciation to alarming heights against other key currencies, to the detriment of exporters, who are seeing their international competitiveness eroded as a result.

Taro Aso, the Japanese prime minister, said on Monday that the government would strengthen regulation on short-selling of Japanese shares and would expand a government program to recapitalize banks using public funds.

Even Japanese banks that have avoided the worst of the losses that are weighing on their Western counterparts are now struggling as the value of their stock portfolios is hammered. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, one of Japan’s largest lenders, said Monday that it would seek to replenish its capital, raising billions of dollars by selling new shares.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies. The euro slid to $1.2420 from $1.2624 late Friday in New York, while the British pound dropped $1.5428 from $1.5897. The dollar rose to 1.1683 Swiss francs from 1.1672 francs. The dollar fell to 92.71 yen from 94.32 [I checked just a couple weeks ago and it was nearly 1OOY: $1] [dollar has slid even lower—that is, it takes even fewer Yen to buy $1 worth of goods] [**]

Crude oil futures for December delivery fell $2 to $62.14 a barrel in electronic trading in New York, the lowest in 17 months.
Michael M. Grynbaum contributed reporting.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Mexican Drug Lord Is Arrested

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/americas/27mexico.html
October 27, 2008
Mexican Drug Lord Is Arrested
By REUTERS [Mexico] [since Calderon’s election, he’s been good as his word regarding war against illicit drugs and cartels that trade them] [in fact, it’s become a war during 2008 with incredibly brazen attacks by drug cartels] [existential war] [followup from September 18, October 3] [much of the violence has been confined to Mexico City, Tijuana, Juarez, so on] [this guy has been number 1 or 2 on the ubiquitous wanted posters for years] [*****]
TIJUANA, Mexico (Reuters) — Mexican security forces have arrested the drug cartel leader Eduardo Arellano Félix, [***]one of the international traffickers most sought by the United States, after a shootout in this border city, [***]the government said Sunday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/americas/27mexico.html
October 27, 2008
Mexican Drug Lord Is Arrested
By REUTERS [Mexico] [since Calderon’s election, he’s been good as his word regarding war against illicit drugs and cartels that trade them] [in fact, it’s become a war during 2008 with incredibly brazen attacks by drug cartels] [existential war] [followup from September 18, October 3] [much of the violence has been confined to Mexico City, Tijuana, Juarez, so on] [this guy has been number 1 or 2 on the ubiquitous wanted posters for years] [*****]
TIJUANA, Mexico (Reuters) — Mexican security forces have arrested the drug cartel leader Eduardo Arellano Félix, [***]one of the international traffickers most sought by the United States, after a shootout in this border city, [***]the government said Sunday.

Mr. Arellano Félix, nicknamed the Doctor, is a senior member of a family cartel embroiled in a violent struggle for control of the lucrative drug trade in which more than 3,700 people have been killed in Mexico this year, including 450 in Tijuana. [***] ]note: that’s nearly as many as US has KIA from –ir in 5 years] [and the Tijuana number only couple hudred fewer than Afghanistan] [***]

He is accused of running the cartel along with his sister Enedina, the only main suspect from the family who remains at large after several brothers have been arrested or killed.

The police arrested Mr. Arellano Félix on Saturday after they chased his car to a three-story home in an upscale neighborhood, [over past few years number of federales in Tijuana markedly up] [***] according to federal police officials in Tijuana. A three-hour gun battle with more than 100 police officers and soldiers ensued, leaving the home riddled with bullet holes.

The United States indicted Mr. Arellano Félix in 2003 on drug-smuggling and money-laundering charges and had offered a reward of up to $5 million for his capture.

President Felipe Calderón has sent tens of thousands of troops and federal police officers across the country to fight escalating drug violence since late 2006, but there have been few arrests of major cartel leaders.

The Arellano Félix family dominated the smuggling of cocaine and marijuana into California in the 1990s and was feared for its ruthless elimination of enemies. [***]

Francisco Arellano Félix, Eduardo’s youngest brother, was sentenced to life in prison in the United States last November after being captured while deep-sea fishing off Mexico. Mexican authorities agreed in June to extradite another brother, Benjamín, to the United States to face smuggling charges. [****]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

The Week Ahead in International News

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102602493.html
The World
Monday, October 27, 2008; A09
The Week Ahead in International News
Tuesday [Czech republic] [oddly?] [celebrating an anniversary of the old Czechoslovakia?] [****]
The Czech Republic is to stage a major military parade in Prague to mark the 90th anniversary of the establishment of Czechoslovakia.
Thursday
London is expected to announce the design for a new city bus, replacing the iconic

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102602493.html
The World
Monday, October 27, 2008; A09
The Week Ahead in International News
Tuesday [Czech republic] [oddly?] [celebrating an anniversary of the old Czechoslovakia?] [****]
The Czech Republic is to stage a major military parade in Prague to mark the 90th anniversary of the establishment of Czechoslovakia.
Thursday
London is expected to announce the design for a new city bus, replacing the iconic double-decker Routemaster.
Friday
Berlin's Tempelhof Airport, hub of the Berlin Airlift 60 years ago, is due to close. An April referendum in the capital failed to save the airport.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Russians React to Article on Moscow Mayor’s Ventures

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/europe/27reax.html
October 27, 2008
Russians React to Article on Moscow Mayor’s Ventures
By CLIFFORD J. LEVY [Russia] [former USSR] [some of the authoritarian tendencies that have characterized Czar Putin’s last couple of years] [Vlad represents a lot of Russians who don’t care for the way the world has changed since 1991] [mostly understandable and Russia ethos] [use ir text] [use psci350] [it’s larger than Kremlin] [when Putin has mayors doing his bidding, it’s a pretty broad agreement] [one internal check is the falling price of petrodollars] [another, the complex Russian elites have of how the West views them though when the petrodollars trumps complexes easily] [*****]
MOSCOW — Russians were sharply divided in response to an article in The New York Times that explored the role of Moscow’s mayor, Yuri M. Luzhkov, in promoting the Kremlin’s aggressive foreign policy under Vladimir V. Putin, the prime minister and a former president.

The Times posted a Russian translation of the article on its Russian-language blog at livejournal.com last week. The post received more than 400 comments and was one of the most widely read in the Russian blogosphere, [***] [this is evidence of the odd complex I’ve commented upon in these pages] [Russian elites have an inferiority complex from Western observers] [historically, the West has looked down upon Russia as peasant backwater of Europe] [Russians have internalized this and it caused them to act overly wrought and strike out in ham-fisted ways] [**]according to rating services.

The article, published in The Times on Sunday, focused on how Mr. Luzhkov had spent hundreds of millions of dollars from his city’s treasury on foreign ventures in the past decade. He has been a major backer of separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the breakaway enclaves of Georgia, as well as on the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine.

Some Russian readers described Moscow’s mayor as a patriot for supporting ethnic Russians and their allies in former Soviet republics. Others said he was just meddling at the Kremlin’s behest. And a third group debated how he had governed since taking office in 1992, [****]with many saying his primary motive was personal profit.

Here is a sampling of excerpts, as translated by the Moscow bureau of The Times:

“For all conscientious Muscovites who love and value their city, Mayor Luzhkov is an extremely unloved figure because of what is happening to Moscow. Due to the influx of enormous amounts of money, the historical image and spirit of the city is being destroyed and Moscow is turning into a faceless business center without its own history. And all this is happening with the mayor’s consent because he and his people, naturally, are getting huge profits.” [***] [that’s a new view] Grafinok

“Everything is turned upside down in this story; the Ossetian-Georgian conflict is presented in a way as if the poor Georgians were driven from the land, as if there were no gangs of Georgian criminals who, in the beginning of the ’90s, invaded the republic and that was why the civilians had to take weapons in their hands. Luzhkov, who builds houses and roads and who brings humanitarian aid, is branded as a nationalist and a disturber of peace, and what then is the U.S., bringing weapons to Georgia and training its soldiers?” Zhizd

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/europe/27reax.html
October 27, 2008
Russians React to Article on Moscow Mayor’s Ventures
By CLIFFORD J. LEVY [Russia] [former USSR] [some of the authoritarian tendencies that have characterized Czar Putin’s last couple of years] [Vlad represents a lot of Russians who don’t care for the way the world has changed since 1991] [mostly understandable and Russia ethos] [use ir text] [use psci350] [it’s larger than Kremlin] [when Putin has mayors doing his bidding, it’s a pretty broad agreement] [one internal check is the falling price of petrodollars] [another, the complex Russian elites have of how the West views them though when the petrodollars trumps complexes easily] [*****]
MOSCOW — Russians were sharply divided in response to an article in The New York Times that explored the role of Moscow’s mayor, Yuri M. Luzhkov, in promoting the Kremlin’s aggressive foreign policy under Vladimir V. Putin, the prime minister and a former president.

The Times posted a Russian translation of the article on its Russian-language blog at livejournal.com last week. The post received more than 400 comments and was one of the most widely read in the Russian blogosphere, [***] [this is evidence of the odd complex I’ve commented upon in these pages] [Russian elites have an inferiority complex from Western observers] [historically, the West has looked down upon Russia as peasant backwater of Europe] [Russians have internalized this and it caused them to act overly wrought and strike out in ham-fisted ways] [**]according to rating services.

The article, published in The Times on Sunday, focused on how Mr. Luzhkov had spent hundreds of millions of dollars from his city’s treasury on foreign ventures in the past decade. He has been a major backer of separatists in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the breakaway enclaves of Georgia, as well as on the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine.

Some Russian readers described Moscow’s mayor as a patriot for supporting ethnic Russians and their allies in former Soviet republics. Others said he was just meddling at the Kremlin’s behest. And a third group debated how he had governed since taking office in 1992, [****]with many saying his primary motive was personal profit.

Here is a sampling of excerpts, as translated by the Moscow bureau of The Times:

“For all conscientious Muscovites who love and value their city, Mayor Luzhkov is an extremely unloved figure because of what is happening to Moscow. Due to the influx of enormous amounts of money, the historical image and spirit of the city is being destroyed and Moscow is turning into a faceless business center without its own history. And all this is happening with the mayor’s consent because he and his people, naturally, are getting huge profits.” [***] [that’s a new view] Grafinok

“Everything is turned upside down in this story; the Ossetian-Georgian conflict is presented in a way as if the poor Georgians were driven from the land, as if there were no gangs of Georgian criminals who, in the beginning of the ’90s, invaded the republic and that was why the civilians had to take weapons in their hands. Luzhkov, who builds houses and roads and who brings humanitarian aid, is branded as a nationalist and a disturber of peace, and what then is the U.S., bringing weapons to Georgia and training its soldiers?” Zhizd

“Luzhkov is a greedy autocrat and demagogue. In my view, absolutely all Luzhkov’s actions are based upon the quite pragmatic interests of the so-called owner of ‘the government of Moscow’ (behind which he personally or people who have business relations with him stand). The majority of Muscovites understand well that all the investments going outside Moscow are from their pockets, and while supporting separatists and nationalists, Mr. Luzhkov does not forget the interests of the family business.” B_n_e

“The longer I live, the more I share the imperial aspirations of Russia because otherwise we will not be able to safeguard our country. Because the West, specifically the United States, conducts a very aggressive policy against Russia, as its former adversary and only real rival and competitor. We have no other way out. [****]How long can we dance to somebody else’s tune?” Seremyaga

“It must be clearly understood that Luzhkov is neither a nationalist nor a patriot. Luzhkov’s ‘nationalism’ is nothing but camouflage. The greatest value for Luzhkov is money and profit.” Tambovsky_wolk

“As a Russian, I cannot understand why Luzhkov is blamed for defending Russians in other countries. Personally, I like what he does. Crimea is ours! Though it’s Ukrainian territory now, the Crimea was, is and will be Russian.” [****]Jionyx

“Luzhkov is the Kremlin’s hand, and a very bloody one. Luzhkov is the same kind of lying and cynical politician as Putin. By all rights, all these people and those close to them must be tried by an international court.” Erricage

“Oh yes, as always: the most objective press in the world describes the events using absolutely neutral epithets. Luzhkov a nationalist? Oh sure. Since when did healthy nationalism became a thing to despise? [***]Luzhkov’s government a bunch of separatists? Of course! Don’t you know that everyone who’s disliked by the American government is a separatist? It’s natural. Just like Saakashvili’s government is a bunch of rascals for us. Why so much bile? Russia gave money to South Ossetia; the United States to Georgia. Everyone has his own truth.” Jimmy_webs

“Luzhkov’s political slogans have more of a relation to Russia’s past and not to the present or future. In the ’90s it was possible to play on the feelings of co-citizens about ‘offended Russians’ and nurture, on this soil, presidential dreams. In the current political situation, Luzhkov is simply a clown. He is not fired from the mayor’s post because the system of management of Moscow has been created in such a way that nobody, besides Luzhkov, can understand it.” Wasunchik

“Russia, Ukraine and Belarus — these are, in my deep belief, one nation. We have the same mentality, identical paradigm, mutual history.” Ferm_86

“I live in Moscow and don’t quite agree with everything Mr. Luzhkov does, but labeling him as a nationalist is nonsense. I even thought the misunderstanding happens at the stage of translation of the word nationalism. I don’t know about in America, but here in Russia, we call nationalists those who preach the supremacy of one nation over another. Luzhkov defends the interests of the entire multinational population of Russia, doesn’t he? We call it patriotism, and there is nothing nationalistic about it.” Alexfg

“Luzhkov is a very complicated figure and it’s incorrect to talk about his ‘foreign policy’ and ignore other aspects of his activity. In my humble opinion, all his ‘charity’ (and certainly the energy he spends on it) is an attempt to get an indulgence for the, let’s put it lightly, nontransparent city-building policy he’s launching in his own city.” K_o_i_l
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

As Israeli Elections Are Called, Livni Is Assessed

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/middleeast/27israel.html
October 27, 2008
As Israeli Elections Are Called, Livni Is Assessed
By ISABEL KERSHNER [Israel] [domestic politics intersects Israel’s foreign policy] [PM Olmert’s legal troubles that finally took their toll so a new Kadima leader, Ms. Livni attempting to created coalition] [Ehud Barack back in position of considerable influence] [meanwhile, Israeli domestic politics again thwart any sustained effort toward Israeli-Palestinian peace] [followup] [this sort of trouble has plagued Israeli domestic politics for most of Israel’s modern existence] [rocky coalitions have ruled Israel for decades] [*****]
JERUSALEM — Tzipi Livni, the foreign minister of Israel and head of the centrist Kadima Party, on Sunday officially asked President Shimon Peres to declare early elections, adding more uncertainty to her chances of becoming prime minister.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/middleeast/27israel.html
October 27, 2008
As Israeli Elections Are Called, Livni Is Assessed
By ISABEL KERSHNER [Israel] [domestic politics intersects Israel’s foreign policy] [PM Olmert’s legal troubles that finally took their toll so a new Kadima leader, Ms. Livni attempting to created coalition] [Ehud Barack back in position of considerable influence] [meanwhile, Israeli domestic politics again thwart any sustained effort toward Israeli-Palestinian peace] [followup] [this sort of trouble has plagued Israeli domestic politics for most of Israel’s modern existence] [rocky coalitions have ruled Israel for decades] [*****]
JERUSALEM — Tzipi Livni, the foreign minister of Israel and head of the centrist Kadima Party, on Sunday officially asked President Shimon Peres to declare early elections, adding more uncertainty to her chances of becoming prime minister.

In remarks broadcast live from the presidential residence, Ms. Livni urged Mr. Peres to call the election without delay and assured him that she would win at the polls — an outcome that is by no means certain, with recent opinion surveys pointing to a likely victory for Benjamin Netanyahu, [***] the head of the right-wing opposition party, Likud.

Mr. Peres told Ms. Livni that by law he had a few days in which to consult with other party leaders before making a decision. He added that holding elections was “not a tragedy.” [***]

“The problem is always the timing and system,” he said.

Elections are now likely to take place in February or March. They were originally scheduled for 2010. The last five general elections in Israel have been held before their due dates, [****]with none of the governments completing a full four-year term.

The failure of Ms. Livni to cobble together a governing coalition means that the departing prime minister, Ehud Olmert, who was forced to resign amid accusations of corruption, will probably remain in office for several more months until elections are held and a new government is formed.

Ms. Livni narrowly won an internal Kadima vote in September to replace Mr. Olmert at the party’s helm. Kadima is the largest party in Parliament, but it holds only 29 of the 120 seats and needs the cooperation of several coalition partners to govern.

Although the Labor Party, headed by Defense Minister Ehud Barak, agreed to join a Livni-led government, smaller parties that held the balance of power made far-reaching political and budgetary demands. [that a fact of life in parliamentary systems where many small parties compete with 2 or 3 larger ones] [***]

Ms. Livni, who has long decried the usual Israeli politicking and has a reputation for clean governance, went a long way toward meeting the demands of Shas, [***] an ultra-Orthodox party that sits in the Olmert government, for a substantial increase in child allowances. But she balked at the full increase and refused to acquiesce to another Shas condition: that the status of Jerusalem should not be broached in negotiations with the Palestinians.

“I was also prepared to pay prices for the establishment of a government, but I was not willing to trade in the economic and diplomatic future of Israel or the hope for a better future and different politics,” [***] [Shas and other orthodox parties generally demand subsidies for large families—I suppose that’s what she meant by economic future] [diplomatic is evident: Jerusalem; probably settlements] [***] Ms. Livni said.

Tzachi Hanegbi, a Livni associate and legislator who handled the coalition negotiations on behalf of Kadima, told Israel Radio earlier Sunday, “When Tzipi Livni realized that the choice was between blackmail and going to elections, the acting prime minister decided: enough blackmail.”

He added, “We will go to quick elections, and the public will choose between irresponsibility and a responsible leadership.”

Politicians and commentators were debating all day whether Ms. Livni’s decision to go to Mr. Peres — more than a week before her deadline for forming a coalition was officially up — was a sign of strength and leadership or an admission of defeat.

Ms. Livni’s supporters commended her for not caving in to what they saw as extortion and suggested that Shas did not negotiate in good faith because it had sewn up a better, back-room deal with leaders of Likud. [I opined on this possibility a few days ago] [this is not evidence] [but it certainly means others are looking at the same possibility that I was] [Netanyahu assuring Shas and others he’d give a better deal] [***]

The detractors of Ms. Livni, a relative newcomer to politics, said her failure to form a government proved a lack of political savvy and experience.

In the final analysis, said Gadi Wolfsfeld, a political science professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, “people will interpret it according to how they felt about Livni and Kadima before.”

In any case, Mr. Wolfsfeld contended, the events of the past few days would not be relevant by election time in early 2009. “In this country so many things could happen by then,” he said.

Ms. Livni’s failure to form a government deals a heavy blow to the peace process. [this is always written] [my view is it was already a dead letter] [**] As the head of Israel’s negotiating team with the Palestinians, Ms. Livni — who, like Mr. Olmert, is a former rightist who defected from Likud — had made reaching an agreement on a two-state solution a high priority.

Mr. Olmert has said that as long as he remains in office, he will continue to pursue peace efforts with the Palestinians and the Syrians, who have recently engaged in indirect talks with Israel through Turkish mediators. [****]

A transitional prime minister retains full powers under Israeli law. But analysts here say that Mr. Olmert’s temporary status, together with the prospect of a new president in the United States, militates against any imminent agreements.

Also Sunday, at the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem, Mr. Olmert promised to “show no tolerance” toward extremist Jewish settlers who physically and verbally attacked Israeli forces in the West Bank on Sunday.

Around 1:30 a.m., the Israeli police, border police and military forces evacuated an illegally built home near Hebron that housed Noam Federman, a well-known activist of the far right in the area, and his family.

In the ensuing violence one police officer was believed to have broken a leg and was taken to the hospital, two teenage girls tried to burn police vehicles, a dozen Palestinian vehicles were vandalized, and a Muslim cemetery in the area was spattered with paint, [good god] [how can Israel as a society allow this sort of extremism?] [sort of like the Weatherman during 60s-70s in US?] [or David Koresh, Jim Jones, the like] [***] a police spokesman said.

A few of the settlers, who did not identify themselves, told the Israeli news media after the events that they would take revenge against the Israeli military for the evacuation. [isn’t that treasonous?] [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Report Finds Iraq Water Treatment Project to Be Late, Faulty and Over Budget

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/middleeast/27reconstruct.html
October 27, 2008
Report Finds Iraq Water Treatment Project to Be Late, Faulty and Over Budget
By JAMES GLANZ [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [followup] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
A huge American-financed wastewater treatment plant in the desert city of Falluja, which United States troops assaulted twice to root out insurgents in 2004, was supposed to be the centerpiece of an effort to rebuild Iraq, a country smashed by war and neglect, and bring Western standards of sanitation.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/middleeast/27reconstruct.html
October 27, 2008
Report Finds Iraq Water Treatment Project to Be Late, Faulty and Over Budget
By JAMES GLANZ [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [followup] [I have enumerated some of time bombs that concern me since late 2007] [followup] [in past couple of months there have appeared new efforts to reignite sectarian violence that had –ir in chaos during 2006-2007] [from US perspective, there won’t be a truly satisfactory SOFA unless and until US is willing to call –ir’s bluff: willing to withdraw troops] [followup] [****]
A huge American-financed wastewater treatment plant in the desert city of Falluja, which United States troops assaulted twice to root out insurgents in 2004, was supposed to be the centerpiece of an effort to rebuild Iraq, a country smashed by war and neglect, and bring Western standards of sanitation.

Instead, the project, which has tripled in cost from original plans to $100 million and has fallen about three years behind schedule, has become an example of the failed and often oversold program to rebuild Iraq’s infrastructure with American dollars and skill. [the US was at least able to achieve such public works programs during Viet Nam war] [Cam Ranh Bay, for example] [****]

The project was so poorly conceived that there is no reliable electricity to run pumps and purification tanks, [so who conceived it?] [***] and no money left to connect homes to the main sewer lines, which now run uselessly beneath Falluja’s streets, according to a report by federal investigators to be released Monday.

The report by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, an independent federal office led by Stuart W. Bowen Jr., stops short of saying that officials with the United States Army Corps of Engineers, which has primary responsibility for the project, or the American Embassy’s own reconstruction bureau, the Iraq Transition Assistance Office, [****]deliberately withheld information on the problems.

But Mr. Bowen’s investigators determined that senior officials at the embassy and the Army Corps knew of the problems for years without taking them to the American ambassador, Ryan C. Crocker, [***]or including them in any substantial way in the State Department’s so-called 2207 reports, which are supposed to inform Congress of the status of taxpayer-financed projects in Iraq.

In fact, when Mr. Crocker learned about the problems in July, he asked the investigators to determine why he had never been informed, [***]the report says.

The investigators found that there were systemic barriers to reporting reconstruction failures up the chain of command, possibly helping to explain why senior embassy and military officials often praise projects that later turn out to be flawed or nonfunctional. [**]

And, as if to remove any doubt that the carefully devised public image of the project bears only a passing resemblance to what the investigators observed, the Army Corps has repeatedly promoted the Falluja project as a remarkable success in its constant stream of news releases on Iraq reconstruction.

In April, for example, an Army Corps release said the project had been started in May 2007 and would eventually serve all the homes in Falluja. In fact, investigators found, the project was begun in June 2004 and was originally supposed to have been finished 18 months later.

At the earliest, the project will be partly operational by next April, the investigators found. And while the original plan called for the plant to cover the entire city, it has since been downsized to serve at most one-third of the population, or about 9,300 homes.

That means the project would end up costing more than $10,000 per home. But even at that price — and even if additional financing can be found to connect the houses to the sewer lines — the plant may never operate.

When investigators arrived this fall, they found that the manholes and control valves had been padlocked on a principal sewer line by an irate contractor who had not been paid for a small part of the work that was supposed to have been financed by the Iraqi government. [****]

Some of the bills were two years past due, the investigators found. [they have a reported $79 billion surplus and they cannot pay small bills?] [***] “This pipeline is a critical mainline component of the system,” the report says. “Ultimately, if this problem is not addressed, wastewater will back up into residents’ houses, causing damage and odor.”

A spokeswoman for the Army Corps of Engineers in Baghdad, DeDe Cordell, pointed out that alongside its criticisms, the inspector general report also praised corps officials for ultimately finding the problems. Ms. Cordell said the project, which was begun under the Coalition Provisional Authority, the transitional government after the invasion, did not pass to the Army Corps until May 2006.

The discrepancy with the corps news release must have been the result of a typographical error, Ms. Cordell said.

She said that plans for the wastewater plant had changed again and again, sometimes at the request of the Iraqi government in ways the Army Corps had objected to. “We are not doing these projects ‘in a vacuum,’ ” Ms. Cordell wrote in an e-mail message. “This is a partnership with the government of Iraq.” [****]

She said that the backbone of the sewer system would be capable of serving the entire city of Falluja, but that the Iraqi government would be responsible for connecting much of that system to individual homes.

“Given the extremely volatile security situation previously encountered in Falluja, we are very encouraged to see that this project is nearing completion,” Ms. Cordell said. “This has been unbelievably challenging and indescribably dangerous, both from a security and a construction safety standpoint. People have died in an effort to bring the city its first wastewater treatment system, a fundamental service, with health and environmental benefits most Americans take for granted.”

Still, the inspector general report says that the Iraqi government has not been inclined to pay for the connections to individual homes and, in a bizarre bit of city planning, has proposed that individual homeowners connect their lines. At least one Iraqi, a 16-year-old boy, died when he was overcome by sewer fumes after his family sent him down to work on the connection.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

U.S. Airstrike Allegedly Kills 8 Inside Syria

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102600965.html
U.S. Airstrike Allegedly Kills 8 Inside Syria
By Ernesto Londoño
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, October 27, 2008; A09 [Syria] [-ir] [yesterday’s new that US crossed –ir-Syria border in pursuit of foreign fighters] [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [apparently, coalition troops have slowed the passage of foreign fighters from Syria portal to trickle] [also, apparently someone decided to go to source] [question is at what level this decision was made?] [****]
BAGHDAD, Oct. 26 -- Four U.S. helicopters flew into Syrian airspace Sunday afternoon and opened fire, killing eight people near the border with Iraq, the Syrian government said.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102600965.html
U.S. Airstrike Allegedly Kills 8 Inside Syria
By Ernesto Londoño
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, October 27, 2008; A09 [Syria] [-ir] [yesterday’s new that US crossed –ir-Syria border in pursuit of foreign fighters] [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [apparently, coalition troops have slowed the passage of foreign fighters from Syria portal to trickle] [also, apparently someone decided to go to source] [question is at what level this decision was made?] [****]
BAGHDAD, Oct. 26 -- Four U.S. helicopters flew into Syrian airspace Sunday afternoon and opened fire, killing eight people near the border with Iraq, the Syrian government said.

The reported operation in al-Boukamal, roughly six miles from the border with Iraq, occurred about 4:45 p.m., the Syrian Arab News Agency reported, citing an unnamed government source.

U.S. attacks inside Syria are extremely rare, though the U.S. military has stepped up security along Iraq's border with Syria in recent months to stem the traffic of fighters and weapons into Iraq. [****]U.S. officials say many insurgents, particularly suicide bombers, arrive in Iraq via the Syrian border.

The U.S. military in Baghdad did not respond to an inquiry about the reported operation. A spokeswoman for the State Department, Joanne Moore, declined to comment.

But the Associated Press quoted an unnamed U.S. military official as saying the Special Forces raid had targeted a network of foreign fighters that regularly crosses the border. "We are taking matters into our own hands," [****] the official told the Associated Press, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

The Syrian press report said pilots opened fire on a building under construction. It provided names for three of the people it said were killed. A man identified as Daoud Mohammad al-Abdullah and his four sons were among the dead, the agency said. The others were identified as Ahmad Khalefa, Ali Abbas and his wife.

"The aggressive helicopters later left for the Iraqi lands," [weird translation?] [***] the report said.

Syria summoned the top U.S. diplomat in Syria, Charge d'Affaires Maura Connelly, to notify her of "Syria's condemnation and complaint of this dangerous aggression," the report said.

Syria also called on the Iraqi government to launch an investigation into the incident and condemned the United States's use of Iraq as a launchpad for military operations in Syria. [***]
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Syria and Iran Blame U.S. in Blast on Iraq Border

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/middleeast/28syria.html
October 28, 2008
Syria and Iran Blame U.S. in Blast on Iraq Border
By KATHERINE ZOEPF [Syria] [-ir] [yesterday’s new that US crossed –ir-Syria border in pursuit of foreign fighters] [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [apparently, coalition troops have slowed the passage of foreign fighters from Syria portal to trickle] [also, apparently someone decided to go to source] [question is at what level this decision was made?] [****]
BAGHDAD — Iran joined Syria on Monday in condemning what they described as an attack by four United States helicopters on the Syrian [***] side of the border with Iraq that they said killed eight people.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/world/middleeast/28syria.html
October 28, 2008
Syria and Iran Blame U.S. in Blast on Iraq Border
By KATHERINE ZOEPF [Syria] [-ir] [yesterday’s new that US crossed –ir-Syria border in pursuit of foreign fighters] [-ir] [hydra] [insurgency] [renewed sectarian tensions and faultlines] [ “surge”] [clearly, positive indicators of improvement] [nevertheless, violence while surge unfolds] [apparently, coalition troops have slowed the passage of foreign fighters from Syria portal to trickle] [also, apparently someone decided to go to source] [question is at what level this decision was made?] [****]
BAGHDAD — Iran joined Syria on Monday in condemning what they described as an attack by four United States helicopters on the Syrian [***] side of the border with Iraq that they said killed eight people.

The United States confirmed that a Special Operations mission took place in the area on Sunday, but a senior military official gave no more details for now. [I presume this was vetted at top] [that is NSC] [but I suppose it’s possible for Odierno or lower to have become frustrated and ordered raid?] [***]

The United States is trying to negotiate a strategic agreement with Iraq that would allow American troops to remain in the country and carry out military operations. The [SOFA] [***] pact faces strenuous opposition from neighboring countries, especially Syria and Iran, because of concerns that the United States might use Iraqi territory to carry out attacks on them. [***]

Syria’s state-run news channel reported that United States helicopters on Sunday attacked an area within Syria near the town of Abu Kamal. The official news agency, SANA, cited an anonymous official as saying that four American helicopters had “launched aggression on a civilian building under construction,” killing eight people, [***] giving the details of those it said were killed, and that the Syrian deputy foreign minister had summoned the chargé d’affaires from the American and Iraqi Embassies in protest.

Syria also said that United States soldiers on the ground had stormed a building in the area, Reuters reported.

In Tehran, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Hassan Qashqavi, condemned the attack, saying a violation of the territorial integrity of any sovereign state [sort of rich coming from Iran where Qods and other special groups in –ir regularly] [***] was unacceptable.

“Iran condemns in strongest terms any form of aggression or violation of the states’ territorial integrity which leads to the death of innocent civilians,” he told reporters, according to the official news agency IRNA.

Syria’s state-run media also intensified its criticism of the United States on Monday, with the government newspaper Tishrin accusing American forces of committing “a war crime,” Agence France-Presse said.

The Iraqi government found itself in an awkward position, at once needing to remain on friendly terms with Syria — which is a neighbor and now home to more than a million Iraqi refugees — but also wanting to bolster the United States, [also, Syria recently announced plans to open embassy in –ir] [only few other Arab governments have done so] [***] which has said that the border area is used by people believed to be fomenting antigovernment unrest in Iraq.

In a statement, Ali al-Dabbagh, the Iraqi government’s spokesman, tried to give something to each country. In support of the United States’ position he said, “This area was a staging ground for activities by terrorist organizations hostile to Iraq.”

In the most recent action, militants killed 13 Interior Ministry employees in a border village, he said, adding, “At the time, Iraq requested that the Syrian authorities hand over the personnel from this group which uses Syria as a base for its terrorist activities.” [***]

At the same time, Mr. Dabbagh emphasized that Iraq wanted good relations with Syria. But he said that “the presence in Syria of groups that are hostile to Iraq and who contribute to terrorist activity against Iraqis hinders the progress of our relationship.” [***]

On Sunday, the police in Anbar Province in Iraq said an explosion on the border of Iraq and Syria had killed nine construction workers and wounded 19 others.

Local witnesses said they believed that the blast was caused by American shelling, but Maj. Gen. Tariq al-Youssef, the provincial police chief in Ramadi, the capital of Anbar, which borders Syria, said that could not be immediately confirmed at the time. [***]

The police statement did not indicate on which side of the border the blast had taken place. The United States has no diplomatic relations with Iran and has withdrawn its ambassador to Syria.

Also late Sunday, an Iraqi lawmaker announced that the country’s oil and gas draft law had been sent on to Parliament. It had been stalled in Iraq’s cabinet since February 2007 because of disputes over control of Iraq’s oil fields, and it has gone through several revisions.

Abdul-Hadi al-Hasani, deputy chairman of the parliamentary committee on oil, gas and natural resources, said the latest draft of the law had been received by his committee on Thursday and was undergoing careful review before being presented to the full legislature. [***] [West Point paper says no way it will be signed before elections in –ir] [***]

“The draft still needs more discussion and the opinion of experts in this field before it really goes to the Parliament,” Mr. Hasani said in a telephone interview. “We wish to activate the law very soon, and we’re serious about it. We talked today with the parliamentary leadership and went through some points concerning the draft of the law.”

Also Sunday, the chief of the Wasit provincial council announced that he had refused to sign a memorandum of understanding with United States forces that was intended to formalize Wasit’s transfer to the control of Iraq’s own security forces. Wasit, a province that borders Iran, was due this week to become the 13th of Iraq’s 18 provinces to be handed over to full Iraqi control.

The council chief, Muhammad Hassan Jasem, said he had rejected the memorandum because its first article gave the United States permission to continue military operations in Wasit.
Reporting was contributed by Eric Schmitt from Washington, Alan Cowell from Paris, Graham Bowley from New York, Mudhafer al-Husaini from Baghdad, and Iraqi employees of The New York Times from Ramadi and Wasit Province.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Somalia Makes Peace Deal With a Militia

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/africa/27somalia.html
October 27, 2008
Somalia Makes Peace Deal With a Militia
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN [Somalia] [northern Africa] proximity to horn and south] [redoubt for various factions-actors in Somalia and elsewhere] [hydra II] [followup] [bloodbath continues in Somalia with transitional government desperate to hang on while Islamist and jihadis movements gain traction with Somalis] [seen as stabililty, if only short term] [transitional government loyalists, brigands, Islamists, clans, or jihadis] [shades of 1992 after which US sent in Marines] [shades of 2001][followup October 11] [****]
NAIROBI, Kenya — Somalia’s transitional leaders made important concessions toward peace on Sunday, agreeing to accept insurgent troops within their ranks and detailing a plan for a phased pullback of Ethiopian soldiers, [***] currently the most powerful force in the country. [it’s Somalia] [likely the deal won’t last] [***]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/africa/27somalia.html
October 27, 2008
Somalia Makes Peace Deal With a Militia
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN [Somalia] [northern Africa] proximity to horn and south] [redoubt for various factions-actors in Somalia and elsewhere] [hydra II] [followup] [bloodbath continues in Somalia with transitional government desperate to hang on while Islamist and jihadis movements gain traction with Somalis] [seen as stabililty, if only short term] [transitional government loyalists, brigands, Islamists, clans, or jihadis] [shades of 1992 after which US sent in Marines] [shades of 2001][followup October 11] [****]
NAIROBI, Kenya — Somalia’s transitional leaders made important concessions toward peace on Sunday, agreeing to accept insurgent troops within their ranks and detailing a plan for a phased pullback of Ethiopian soldiers, [***] currently the most powerful force in the country. [it’s Somalia] [likely the deal won’t last] [***]

This agreement could be an important step for chaotic Somalia, where thousands of civilians have been killed this year in vicious urban combat between, on one side, the Ethiopian troops and militia members loyal to the Somali government and, on the other, a determined Islamist insurgency. The recent fighting has compounded the country’s dire humanitarian problems, with millions of people on the brink of starvation. [***]

In a document signed in the neighboring country of Djibouti, Somalia’s transitional government agreed to police the country jointly with an insurgent militia. [**] Equally important, the government committed to have Ethiopian troops “relocate,” starting Nov. 21, from critical urban areas, including strategic sites in Mogadishu, the bullet-pocked capital.

Ethiopian troops are reviled by many Somalis, yet without their firepower, the transitional government would quickly collapse. [historical animosities besides which Ethiopia is perceived as Christian country, as 60% of its population is Christian] [****] Until now, the government had been vague about when the Ethiopians would pull back.

In turn, one insurgent group, the Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia, agreed to respect a cease-fire and to stop waging its guerrilla war.

“Some very important principles have now been established,” said a statement issued by Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, the top United Nations diplomat for Somalia. “The challenge is to ensure that concrete action is taken.”

But several major problems remain. For starters, the most fearsome wing of Somalia’s Islamist insurgency, the Shabab, has shunned the peace talks and vowed to fight on. [some years back bin Laden called for foreign fighters to head to Somalia] [not clear how many have bothered] [***] The Shabab is a multiclan army of committed jihadists who have used suicide bombs, assassinations and high-tech weaponry in an attempt to overthrow Somalia’s weak transitional government and turn Somalia into an Islamic state. The United States considers the Shabab a terrorist organization.

Another problem is that the insurgent group that did sign the agreement is riddled with internal divisions and therefore may no longer have the street credibility to get its fighters to lay down their arms. [***] After 17 years of chaos, since the central government collapsed in 1991, Somalia is still full of armed groups and war profiteers who see little to gain from peace or stability.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Officials Counter Ahmadinejad Health Rumors

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/middleeast/27iran.html
October 27, 2008
Officials Counter Ahmadinejad Health Rumors
By NAZILA FATHI [iran] [domestic politics intersect foreign policy] [recently, the supreme leader gave a shout out to Ahmadinejad] [why?] [hard to know] [might be as simple as he feels Ahmadinejad too beleaguered] [might be a shot across the bow of another faction] [more on Ahmadinejad’s recent health problems—no surprise as he’s under siege] [*******]
TEHRAN — President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran is suffering from exhaustion because of the strain of his job, the official news agency IRNA reported Sunday in an unusual disclosure about the health of the country’s top elected leader. But the news agency quoted a political ally as saying Mr. Ahmadinejad would make a full recovery. [***] [what else would an ally say?]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/world/middleeast/27iran.html
October 27, 2008
Officials Counter Ahmadinejad Health Rumors
By NAZILA FATHI [iran] [domestic politics intersect foreign policy] [recently, the supreme leader gave a shout out to Ahmadinejad] [why?] [hard to know] [might be as simple as he feels Ahmadinejad too beleaguered] [might be a shot across the bow of another faction] [more on Ahmadinejad’s recent health problems—no surprise as he’s under siege] [*******]
TEHRAN — President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran is suffering from exhaustion because of the strain of his job, the official news agency IRNA reported Sunday in an unusual disclosure about the health of the country’s top elected leader. But the news agency quoted a political ally as saying Mr. Ahmadinejad would make a full recovery. [***] [what else would an ally say?]

State television also quoted Mr. Ahmadinejad himself as saying that he might be exhausted, but that it was nothing more serious. “Of course, we are also human beings, and sometimes we catch a cold,” he was quoted as saying.

The official news accounts apparently were meant to rebut rumors that Mr. Ahmadinejad, who is in his early 50s, may be ill and not up to running for re-election in June. [***] Those rumors, on nongovernment Web sites including some associated with Mr. Ahmadinejad’s political rivals, have suggested that his condition could be more serious, particularly since he has canceled several events in the past week.

The talk about his health comes at a time of increased pressure on Mr. Ahmadinejad, primarily for what critics call his mishandling of the economy in Iran, which has led to an inflation rate of 30 percent. [and dramatically lower oil prices] [***] His government faced one of its worst crises this month after street-bazaar merchants in major cities went on strike to protest enforcement of a new sales tax. Analysts have warned that the economy could worsen because of the tumbling price of oil, Iran’s leading export, which could force severe budget cutbacks and rising unemployment.

Mr. Ahmadinejad is also known for his unyielding position on Iran’s uranium enrichment program, which the United States, Israel and the European Union suspect is meant for developing an atomic bomb, [Iran’s sovereign right to enrich uranium for power plant, which needs only low (5%) enrichment, is popular in Iran generally] [but Ahmadinejad has been hardliner on it] [***] an accusation that Iran denies.

Mr. Ahmadinejad’s refusal to halt uranium enrichment has led to United Nations Security Council sanctions against Iran and contributed to its increased economic isolation.

“The president will eventually recover and will continue his work,” said Mohammad Esmail Kowsari, a member of Parliament and a close ally of Mr. Ahmadinejad, according to IRNA.

IRNA also reported Sunday that Mr. Ahmadinejad had become fatigued because of the strain of his job. He has said that he works 20 hours a day. [***]

Mr. Kowsari said that the president’s rivals were using a simple illness as “psychological warfare,” but that they were doomed to fail.

On Saturday, state-run television showed Mr. Ahmadinejad receiving the credentials of three foreign ambassadors.

He met with governors general, leaders of Iran’s regions, on Sunday, according to IRNA, and during that meeting he attacked his critics by saying they had “tried maliciously” to ignore the positive and constructive efforts of his government.

Shahab News, an unofficial Web site, reported that Mr. Ahmadinejad suffers from “exhaustion and low blood pressure,” the same problem that forced him to cancel many events for three consecutive weeks in May. [***]It said that a close aide had said the president was suffering from “weakness” caused by “the pressure of his work.”

The Web site also said: “Mr. Ahmadinejad’s illness has led political circles to believe that he might not be able to run for re-election next year.”

The news came as Parliament moved on Sunday to impeach Interior Minister Ali Kordan, a close ally of Mr. Ahmadinejad over claims of lying about his university degrees. A vote was set for Nov. 4.

Mr. Kordan claimed that Oxford had given him an honorary doctorate, but investigations revealed that his degree was fake. [see elsewhere in today’s external] [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Iran Cabinet Minister Facing Impeachment

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102601725.html
Iran Cabinet Minister Facing Impeachment
By Thomas Erdbrink
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, October 27, 2008; A10 [iran] [domestic politics intersect foreign policy] [recently, the supreme leader gave a shout out to Ahmadinejad] [why?] [hard to know] [might be as simple as he feels Ahmadinejad too beleaguered] [might be a shot across the bow of another faction] [now one faction going after Ahmadinejad’s cabinet again] [****]
TEHRAN, Oct. 26 -- The Iranian parliament is preparing to impeach Interior Minister Ali Kordan next month for "dishonesty" after his supposed Oxford University law degree turned out to be a fake. [****]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102601725.html
Iran Cabinet Minister Facing Impeachment
By Thomas Erdbrink
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, October 27, 2008; A10 [iran] [domestic politics intersect foreign policy] [recently, the supreme leader gave a shout out to Ahmadinejad] [why?] [hard to know] [might be as simple as he feels Ahmadinejad too beleaguered] [might be a shot across the bow of another faction] [now one faction going after Ahmadinejad’s cabinet again] [****]
TEHRAN, Oct. 26 -- The Iranian parliament is preparing to impeach Interior Minister Ali Kordan next month for "dishonesty" after his supposed Oxford University law degree turned out to be a fake. [****]

The move would push President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad perilously close to having to submit his entire cabinet to a review by parliament, which is led by one of the president's key political opponents. [the ultimate Ayatollah has weighed in occasionally in Ahmadinejad’s behalf but the momentum is building and he may not be able to afford to do so again] [stay tuned] [***]

"The atmosphere of the parliament is very good for impeaching him and, God willing, he will be impeached," [****]parliament member Ali Motahari, a former political ally of Ahmadinejad's, told the Iranian Students News Agency.

Kordan's ministry organizes Iran's presidential elections, the next of which is slated for June. The impeachment vote is set for Nov. 4.

In August, just days after Kordan was sworn in as interior minister, Oxford posted a statement on its Web site saying it had no record of him receiving a degree from the university, as he had claimed.

Many analysts predict that Kordan will resign. "We expected that Kordan would resign before the impeachment bill was officially received, but we still believe it's not too late," Mostafa Kavakebian, a member of Ahmadinejad's parliamentary faction, told ISNA. "I earnestly ask him to resign so that the time of the parliament and the government is not wasted." [***]

Kordan's impeachment could jeopardize Ahmadinejad's cabinet. Iran's constitution requires that the cabinet be resubmitted for approval if more than half of the ministers are replaced. [***]Ahmadinejad has replaced nine of 21 ministers.

"That would be a gigantic issue," said Iraj Jamshidi, political editor of the Etemaad newspaper, which is critical of the government. "Economic dissatisfaction is high, there is a huge drop in oil prices, and we will be facing a huge budget deficit. [***]Imagine the whole cabinet needs to get a new review in these problematic times."
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

October 26, 2008

John McCain, Flexible Aggression

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/weekinreview/26kirkpatrick.html
October 26, 2008
Election Special Issue
John McCain, Flexible Aggression
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK [pre-election analysis piece on candidates] [McCain] [this will be important reading if McCain becomes the next president] [see today’s similar piece on Obama] [use psci 355, 455] [******]
Senator John McCain races through the final days of the presidential race reciting a familiar admonition. It is the same mantra he has called upon to steel himself for moments of conflict as a collegiate boxer at the Naval Academy, a prisoner of war bracing for interrogation, a legislator twisting arms for votes, or as a Republican primary candidate rallying crowds against an all-but-certain defeat. [****] [to me, and I have a fair amount of respect for McCain (even though I’ve seen his temper close up) he’s become increasingly Nixonian in his late years] [I sense that he would barricade himself in the White House with only a handful of advisers] [I also sense that he knows Palin is not prime time and he would unduly (but understandably) exclude her] [he knows she’s perfectly capable of acting in her self interest versus his] [*****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/weekinreview/26kirkpatrick.html
October 26, 2008
Election Special Issue
John McCain, Flexible Aggression
By DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK [pre-election analysis piece on candidates] [McCain] [this will be important reading if McCain becomes the next president] [see today’s similar piece on Obama] [use psci 355, 455] [******]
Senator John McCain races through the final days of the presidential race reciting a familiar admonition. It is the same mantra he has called upon to steel himself for moments of conflict as a collegiate boxer at the Naval Academy, a prisoner of war bracing for interrogation, a legislator twisting arms for votes, or as a Republican primary candidate rallying crowds against an all-but-certain defeat. [****] [to me, and I have a fair amount of respect for McCain (even though I’ve seen his temper close up) he’s become increasingly Nixonian in his late years] [I sense that he would barricade himself in the White House with only a handful of advisers] [I also sense that he knows Palin is not prime time and he would unduly (but understandably) exclude her] [he knows she’s perfectly capable of acting in her self interest versus his] [*****]

“Game face on!” he murmurs to himself, borrowing the advice of so many athletic coaches.

Some friends say the expression is a metaphor for an essential tension that runs through Mr. McCain’s life. He is often deliberative, self-critical and flexible, his advisers and fellow senators say, and has frequently corrected course during his 36 years in public life. “He is a much more supple mind than he is usually portrayed,” [***] [I agree, though I think he has become less so over this campaign] [***] said Philip Bobbitt, an international relations scholar and Democrat the senator consulted this summer.

But when he confronts an adversary, a starkly different John McCain can emerge, fired up with certainty for an all-or-nothing battle. “I am going to win this thing and you are going to have to run me over to defeat me,” said former Senator Bob Kerrey, a Democrat close to Mr. McCain, explaining his friend’s attitude. “It is a face that makes his opponent think, ‘I don’t know if I want to get my nose bloodied by this guy.’ ”

The conflicting impulses toward deliberation and aggression have been the alternating currents of his singular career and, if Mr. McCain wins the White House, could shape his presidency. [***] As a Navy pilot, Mr. McCain has written, he let his “cockiness” deafen him to the risk of a buzzer warning of enemy fire. But as a returning prisoner of war he drew nuanced conclusions about political leadership and public opinion that have left him at some times a dove (Lebanon, Somalia ) and others a hawk (the Balkans, Iraq). [****]

In the Senate, he is almost as well known for his handwritten apology notes as for his outbursts. [that’s so true] [he appears visibly sick that he flew off at times] [it’s a strange thing to watch] [***] (“I think I learned a few things in prison but possibly one of the most important things was the value of friendship,” Mr. McCain wrote in one note provided to The Times. “Chalk it up to the ‘McCain temper.’ ”) He fires advisers who disappoint or embarrass him, but then keeps seeking their advice. He frets publicly that his ambition might tempt him to compromise his principles, but he also races headlong into battles in pursuit of political power.

If elected, Mr. McCain would arrive well-scarred at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue: 72 years old, the oldest president to enter office, the first Vietnam veteran, a survivor of five and a half years in a North Vietnamese prison camp who could also have a son at war. Jimmy McCain, a Marine, recently returned from Iraq, while his brother John Sidney McCain IV, a Naval Academy midshipman, could be on the way.

Driven as much by his notion of honor as by ideology, Mr. McCain could make an unpredictable — his critics say “erratic” — chief executive. [***] [I don’t like the implication left unspoken by that description] [it’s ugly] [if they truly think he’s a psychological mess from Vietnam, say so] [otherwise, step away from that ugliness] [the weird thing is he’s adopted it himself] [***] By default he is a limited-government conservative, but he readily bends those convictions if a cause seems worthy. He has regularly picked fights with both parties over everything from the tax policy to the war on Iraq, but also knows how to force through bipartisan deals.

Mr. McCain has called his decision-making style “instinctive, often impulsive,” as he put it in “Worth the Fighting For,” a 2002 memoir written with his aide Mark Salter. “I don’t torture myself over decisions. [****] I make them as quickly as I can, quicker than the other fellow if I can.” [too much Bush] [****]

But he also says he has also learned to cultivate what Navy pilots called “situational awareness” [***] — gathering as much information as possible about the context of any decision, including an inventory of his weaknesses and his enemy’s strengths. He got a lesson in its importance 41 years ago over Hanoi.

Convinced of his invulnerability, “I placed too much faith on what was beyond my knowledge or control: luck,” Mr. McCain wrote with Mr. Salter in a recent book, “Hard Call.” “I had five and a half very long years to regret my decision and the lapse in self-awareness.”
A Reflective Gadfly
Politically and intellectually, Mr. McCain is a gadfly. [****] Most other lawmakers cultivate one area of expertise like health care, foreign affairs or the budget. Senator McCain, at the apex of his career, hopscotches in and out of pet causes, from patients’ rights to sue health insurers to fuel-efficiency standards to defense contract cost overruns.

He reads widely, not only in public policy but also in fiction and history. An aide who looked in his briefcase in July found three books he was reading, two of which he has echoed in public statements since then. [****]

One was “The Return of History and the End of Dreams,” by the hawkish foreign policy thinker Robert Kagan, [not good] [***] which posits a return to regional great power politics and arguably anticipated Russia’s recent incursion into Georgia. Another was “Tell Me How This Ends,” an admiring account of the troop “surge” in Iraq that Mr. McCain was among the first to embrace. A third book was “Paradise Lost: Smyrna 1922,” a popular history of a remote event, the sacking of an Aegean city.

Mr. Bobbitt, the scholar who met with Mr. McCain over several days three months ago to talk about his recent work, “Terror and Consent,” said he was surprised by the candidate’s willingness to question his own suppositions. “He is still reading and learning,” Mr. Bobbitt said. “He didn’t have any of the attitude of ‘Look, I am in the middle of a campaign, this is what I have said, this is how it is going to be’ that you would understandably get three months before an election.” [that’s good] [but McCain has adopted too much neoconservative thinking for my taste] [in so doing, he falls into the trap of not prioritizing] [is Russia the key threat—which is the latest neocnoservative hobby horse] [or is global jihadis, which is what they rode to success in Bush’s first term] [they are conflicted and intellectually scattered, at least to my way of thinking] [**]

Mr. McCain first tasted politics in 1977 as the Navy’s liaison to the United States Senate — a bag carrier, some called the job. He was 40 and unsure of his future, devouring Theodore H. White’s election chronicles to fill in the history he missed, and he turned the assignment into a training seminar for his own political career.

Escorting lawmakers on overseas trips and entertaining them with stories of his naval escapades, Mr. McCain listened as the senators gossiped over evening cocktails, or brought him into closed committee staff meetings. And he capitalized on their goodwill: Senator William Cohen of Maine, best man at Mr. McCain’s 1980 wedding, and Senator John Tower of Texas, who many said treated Captain McCain like a son, provided invaluable help in his 1982 election to a House seat in Arizona.

As a senator or presidential candidate, Mr. McCain prefers to make decisions by consulting experts with opposing views, preferably watching them clash. “He encourages disagreement in front of him, to see the evidence that disagrees with where he might be headed,” said Kevin A. Hassett, an economist close to Mr. McCain.

He sometimes re-examines a position with as little prompting as a voter’s comment in a town hall meeting, his advisers say. After questions during his 2000 primary campaign about global warming or health insurance, for example, he set out to investigate. He soon startled Senate Democrats by co-sponsoring a “patients’ bill of rights.” He read widely about climate change, visited both polar ice caps and became the leading Republican sponsor of legislation to cut emissions. [good qualities] [***]

Vietnam, inevitably, has become a recurring reference point. He has often cited the familiar lesson that the United States should never commit its troops without broad public support — “the Vietnam thing,” he recently called it. But he also faults the political leaders of that time for failing to rally Americans to the fight.. He argues that the withdrawal emboldened foes by damaging the nation’s credibility, and ultimately concluded that he had taken the wrong lesson from Vietnam when he supported the pullout of United States troops from Somalia in 1994.

“Osama bin Laden observed our withdrawal,” Mr. McCain wrote in his 2002 memoir, “and concluded that America no longer had the stomach for war.” [that’s partially true but too simplistic] [if OBL was such an astute observer of America’s lessons, what lessons did he draw from Gulf War I?] [why did he inaccurately gauge, as the jihadis world is now arguing, post-9/11 response?] [***]
Mindset of a Warrior
Though his causes may change, Mr. McCain brings the mindset of a warrior to each fight. After Sept. 11, 2001, for example, he argued forcefully and almost immediately for invading Iraq. He repeated assertions about Iraq’s weapons programs and terrorist ties, but his main argument was that the public reaction to the attacks presented an “opportunity” to deter other potential threats by making an example of Saddam Hussein.

On other Senate issues, he would bark out tactical goals in morning strategy sessions with his legislative co-sponsors. “It is like laying out a battle plan,” Mr. Salter said. “He would say, ‘O.K., this guy in my caucus is a lawyer and he is going to say this. Who do we got that is a lawyer to talk to him? Who do we got? Who do we got?’ ”

He can take defeat hard. After conservatives blocked a major tobacco bill he had negotiated in 1998, Mr. McCain excoriated his own party for consigning children to lung cancer. After losing fights over campaign finance rules, he would lash out at his opponents as corrupt.

He relishes conflict, his friends say, and would make a confrontational president. As Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and a close friend put it: “The man will run across the street to get in a good fight.” [I’m not sure that’s what the US needs in a president] [****]

But Mr. McCain could be effective. He learned to exploit his combative instincts to maximize his power, mastering the Senate’s sometimes Machiavellian maneuvers and intrigues. He started trying to climb the ladder of the Senate Republican leadership; aside from his quixotic assaults on earmarks and campaign donations, he was a reliable conservative.

Then his man-against-machine clash with the Republican front-runner George W. Bush in 2000 opened a new path. Mr. McCain returned to the Senate with a new national reputation as a “maverick,” more popular with liberals and independents than with conservatives. [****]

He recognized that in a narrowly divided Senate he could be a pivotal swing player, often able to push forward proposals he favored on the Democratic agenda or at least thwart the will of Republican leaders on the matters he chose (on judicial confirmations or detainee interrogations, for example).

His shifting allegiances infuriated opponents. Sometimes, he conspired with former Republican Senate foes against their party leaders and President Bush (judges). Other times, he joined the president to battle the Democrats (on the Iraq war) or fellow Republicans (on immigration). In between, he basked in accolades from Democrats for siding with them on taxes, Alaskan oil drilling, generic drugs, emission rules and other matters. [****] [probably good qualities?]

Mr. McCain made plenty of enemies. In confrontations, he could explode in profanity, bolt from meetings in rage, or order other lawmakers out of the room. He says he sometimes uses his explosive temper tactically, to intimidate opponents. But he left enough bruises that Democrats had sheaves of old quotes from fellow Republicans about his volatile temper at the ready when he ran for president.
Contradictory Impulses
In his first race in Arizona, John McCain campaigned as a well-connected insider with “experience in Washington” who could bring home pork — parochial spending projects — for the state. (He angered Senator Barry Goldwater by attempting to steal credit for a defense contract the senator had steered to the state.)

In his 2000 presidential run, he campaigned as an anti-politician. He denounced pork-barrel spending, made campaign finance rules the centerpiece of his agenda, and railed against the influence of special interests in Washington. He opened his bus to the press and mocked the idea of “message discipline.” [and look where it got him] [popular with a fickle press corps and not in the White House, which he wants every bit as badly as Obama] [he’s at least as amibitous] [****]

And though for years he had played down his prison ordeal (“I don’t want to be the P.O.W. senator,” Mr. McCain once told a reporter. “I don’t think it made any change in my basic character”), he began talking about it as a more formative experience. Echoing his 1999 autobiography, “Faith of My Fathers,” Mr. McCain described Vietnam as the crucible that taught him the importance of dedication to a cause greater than himself — a formulation that became his campaign theme.

This time around, Mr. McCain — still the “maverick” — has variously run as anointed front-runner, then cash-strapped long shot, and finally a battle-tested “fighter” out to change Washington. In the final rounds of his campaign against Senator Barack Obama, his Democratic rival, Mr. McCain is again in full game face.

His campaign has pelted his rival with attacks that make some of his old advisers wince, like questioning Mr. Obama’s patriotism or tying him to “a domestic terrorist.” He made a high-stakes bet on a telegenic but untested running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, with no qualms about leading the charge.

If the election were a contest to hold your breath under water, “you would be giving John McCain mouth to mouth before he would let Obama win,” said his friend, former Senator Kerrey.

At times, Mr. McCain’s confidence in the righteousness of his own cause may blind him to contradictions. He bashes lobbyists as “birds of prey” but hires a staff of former or “on leave” lobbyists to run his campaign. (While attacking the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Mr. McCain was recently embarrassed by the disclosure that until their collapse this summer they had been paying big monthly fees to the government relations firm of his campaign manager, Rick Davis.)

Mr. McCain promises to avoid even the appearance of impropriety or official favors. But around the start of his 2000 race, he wrote a letter of recommendation and arranged a Pentagon meeting to help a big donor win two lucrative California land deals. At the same time, several top advisers were warning him to keep his distance from a female lobbyist because the two appeared overly friendly, two participants in those conversations said. [****]

In more reflective moments, Mr. McCain says he tries to maintain a stoic detachment about the prospect of victory or defeat, a habit of mind he says he acquired as Navy pilot and prisoner of war. “I tend to be fatalistic about these things,” he said in an interview not long after he had locked up the Republican nomination, shrugging off his success.

The son and grandson of four-star admirals, Mr. McCain wrestles publicly with the burdens of trying to live up to their standards of both accomplishment and honor. Contemplating his first run at the White House, he worried about balancing his ambition for the prize with his own sense of virtue, he wrote in “Worth the Fighting For.”

After his loss, he professed himself grateful, at the age of 65, for what might be left of his time. “I did not get to be president of the United States. And I doubt I shall have reason or opportunity to try again,” he wrote, but added, “I might yet become the man I always wanted to be.” [until this campaign, which is what’s sad sort of] [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Barack Obama, Forever Sizing Up

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/weekinreview/26kantor.html
October 26, 2008
Election Special Issue
Barack Obama, Forever Sizing Up
By JODI KANTOR [pre-election analysis piece on candidates] [Obama] [this will be important reading if Obama becomes the next president] [see today’s similar piece on McCain] [use psci 355, 455] [******]
From his days leading The Harvard Law Review to his presidential campaign, Barack Obama has always run meetings by a particular set of rules. [he seems a pretty disciplined guy] [an intellectual with order] [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/weekinreview/26kantor.html
October 26, 2008
Election Special Issue
Barack Obama, Forever Sizing Up
By JODI KANTOR [pre-election analysis piece on candidates] [Obama] [this will be important reading if Obama becomes the next president] [see today’s similar piece on McCain] [use psci 355, 455] [******]
From his days leading The Harvard Law Review to his presidential campaign, Barack Obama has always run meetings by a particular set of rules. [he seems a pretty disciplined guy] [an intellectual with order] [****]

Everyone contributes; silent lurkers will be interrogated. (He wants to “suck the room of every idea,” said Valerie Jarrett, a close adviser.) Mention a theory and Mr. Obama asks how it translates on the ground. He orchestrates debate, playing participants off each other — and then highlights their areas of agreement. He constantly restates others’ contributions in his own invariably more eloquent words. [****] But when the session ends, his view can remain a mystery, and his ultimate call is sometimes a surprise to everyone who was present. [****]

Those meetings, along with the career they span, provide hints about what sort of president Mr. Obama might be if elected. They suggest a cool deliberator, a fluent communicator, a professor with a hunger for academic expertise but little interest in abstraction. He may be uncomfortable making decisions quickly or abandoning a careful plan. A President Obama would prize consensus, except when he would disregard it. [***] And his lifelong penchant for control would likely translate into a disciplined White House. [does sound a bit reminiscent of JFK, good and bad] [****]

Winning the presidency would be the latest in a lifetime of dramatic, self-induced transformations: from a child reared in Indonesia and Hawaii to a member of Chicago’s African-American community; from an atheist to a Christian; from a wonkish academic to the smoothest of politicians; and now, just possibly, from an upstart who eight years ago was crushed in a Congressional race to the first black commander in chief of the only superpower on earth.

Turning deficits into assets — a skill Mr. Obama learned in his 20s as a community organizer — could well be called the motto of his rise. With his literary gifts, he transformed a fatherless childhood into a stirring coming-of-age tale. He used a glamourless state senator’s post as the foundation of his political career. He mobilized young people — never an ideal base, because of thin wallets and historically poor turnout — into an energetic army who in turn enlisted parents and grandparents. And even though his exotic name, Barack Hussein Obama, has spurred false rumors and insinuations about his background and beliefs, he has made it a symbol of his singularity and of America’s possibility.

But in the Oval Office, Mr. Obama would have a new set of deficits. Just 47 years old and only four years into a national political career, he has never run anything larger than his campaign. [****] [that can be ameliorated by surronding himself with smart people with experience] [***] [how will Biden fit in?] [will this help the veep role to remain influential?] [would that be good?] [use role theory] [****] He began his run for president while he was still getting lost in Washington, a city he does not yet know well. His promises are as vast as his résumé is short, and some of his pledges are competing ones: progressive rule and centrist red-blue fusion; wholesale transformation and down-to-earth pragmatism.

Mr. Obama’s ambition and confidence have long confounded critics and annoyed rivals. In 2006, the still-new United States senator appeared before Washington’s elite at the spring dinner of the storied Gridiron Club, and as tradition dictated, roasted himself. [****] He ticked off the evidence of his popularity: the Democratic convention speech that had won him national celebrity, the best-selling books, the magazine covers.

“Really, what else is there to do?” he said in mock innocence. “Well, I guess I could pass a law or something.”

He passed a few. By the end of the year, he was running for president.
A Disciplined Life
Barack Obama’s lowest moment as a community organizer in the 1980s came when he brought the executive director of the Chicago Housing Authority to Altgeld Gardens, a decrepit housing project, to hear complaints about asbestos. Seven-hundred residents grew restless waiting for the tardy director. When he finally appeared, the meeting grew so raucous that the director fled after 15 minutes, to chants of “No more rent!”

The young organizer was humiliated and angry, at himself. “It was embarrassing to him to have the residents out of control,” said Johnnie Owens, whom Mr. Obama would hire as a community organizer. [****]

Mr. Obama has always prized order. Even at Occidental College, during what he has called his dissolute phase, students remember him as a model of moderation: not the pot-smoking, booze-swilling Barry of “Dreams From My Father,” [***] [odd: he may have made more of his drug days that actually existed] [what a change from the past two presidents] [****] his first book, but a morning jogger who studied hard and might allow himself a puff of a joint here, an extra beer there. “He was not even close to being a party animal,” said Vinai Thummalapally, a friend from those years.

When he applied for jobs, prospective employers often found that they were the ones being interviewed. [***]In fact, when Michelle Obama was interviewing for a position in the Chicago mayor’s office, her new husband accompanied her to dinner with her prospective boss to make sure the job would not compromise Michelle’s values.

There is little Mr. Obama has controlled more tightly than his own story and message. Just as he was planning his entry into politics, he used “Dreams From My Father” to cast his peripatetic, confusing childhood into a lyrical journey. When he was elected to the United States Senate in 2004, Mr. Obama wrote his second book, “The Audacity of Hope,” laying out his political philosophy. It meant getting only three or four hours of sleep at night, his editor said, but he insisted on writing the entire thing himself’. (He not only read policy books to prepare, but also some of the articles cited in their footnotes. [***]) For his presidential campaign speechwriter, he chose a 26-year-old who describes his job as channeling the thoughts of a boss who already knows what he wants to say. [which speechwriter is this?] [***]

The senator has the discipline to avoid flaunting his oratorical gifts. Periodically during the campaign, rivals accused him of offering more style than substance; Mr. Obama responded with such sober speeches that supporters started to worry he was dull.

When it comes to making decisions, Mr. Obama’s impulse for control translates into a kind of deliberative restraint. He has always required time to mull: As a community organizer, he spent his evenings filling journals, trying to sort out the day’s confusion. [***] During his seven years as a state senator, he used the time driving between Springfield and Chicago for contemplation; when staffers suggested that a candidate for the United States Senate should have a driver, Mr. Obama resisted, saying the driver might intrude. Hence Mr. Obama’s fluster when he misses his daily gym time. “That’s when he can get his mind straight,” said Jim Cauley, his campaign manager in the United States Senate race.

Mr. Obama resists making quick judgments or responding to day-to-day fluctuations, aides say. Instead he follows a familiar set of steps: Perform copious research. Solicit expertise. (What delighted Mr. Obama most about becoming a United States senator, he told an old boss, was his access to top scholars: he was a kid in the Princeton and Stanford candy shops.) [****] Project all likely scenarios. Devise a plan. Anticipate objections. Adjust the plan, and once it’s in place, stick with it. In part, this approach explains how Mr. Obama won in the primaries: he exploited the electoral calendar and arcane differences in voting methods, and while Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton continually tried out new messages, Mr. Obama modified his only slightly, even when some supporters urged more dramatic change.

Like all other campaigns, Mr. Obama’s is imbued with its leader’s personality: it is a tight, centralized structure, run by a tiny group that permits no leaks. On the trail, Mr. Obama has struggled with the unpredictable questions and irritating time limits of presidential debates. [none of the impetuousness of Clinton and Bush] [and Bush, while he can be decisive, is naturally allergic to intellectuals—he’s got a chip on his shoulder about them] [***] He does not always react swiftly to unexpected shifts. This summer, Mr. Obama had just finished a perfectly planned tour of Europe when Russia blitzed into neighboring Georgia; he took several days to settle on a position. After Mr. McCain’s surprise selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, the Obama campaign seemed to struggle to react.

The only time Mr. Obama slips from “his normal cool self,” said Marty Nesbitt, a close friend, is “when something surprises him.” [well get ready because the presidency is one surprise after another] [***]

In 2004, Mr. Obama gained sudden fame and fortune: his convention speech drew a nationwide standing ovation, he won a Senate seat, and he signed a multimillion-dollar book contract. Flush with cash for the first time, he made two financial decisions that cast doubt on his reputation as an anti-corruption crusader. He set up a blind trust for his investments, but sloppily so, managing to put thousands of dollars into a biotech company that was developing a drug to treat avian flu just as he pushed for federal financing to battle the disease.

And he allowed Antoin Rezko, a developer and longtime donor, to acquire and sell him land next to the dream house Mr. Obama was buying in Chicago, even though Mr. Rezko’s name was already cropping up in newspaper articles about corruption.
Wielding a Scalpel
Mr. Obama’s message of change can be hard to pin down, and he has spent his entire career searching for the right way to fulfill his desire for broad social renewal. First he became a community organizer, thinking change would flow from citizens upward; then he tried the law, which, as he learned from teaching legal history, was a highly imperfect instrument. Since then he has set his sights on changing government institutions, one higher than the next. Even in the Senate, he told a reporter, it was possible to have a career that was “not particularly useful.”

Critics have used the Rezko incident to question Mr. Obama’s reputation as a reformer, to argue he has few core beliefs. They cite a proposal he made in the Senate for stringent reporting requirements concerning nuclear plant leaks, which he then softened after Republican colleagues and energy executives complained. The bill died in committee. Or the time he joined a bipartisan coalition on immigration reform but backed away when labor groups protested. That legislation collapsed, too.

“He folded like a cheap suit,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina and a close ally of Senator John McCain, Mr. Obama’s Republican rival.

Most of all, his critics point to his “present” votes in the Illinois Legislature, in which he did not choose sides, avoiding difficult matters like trying juveniles as adults. At least 36 times (out of thousands of votes) Mr. Obama was the only senator to vote “present,” or one of just a few.

Even some of Mr. Obama’s friends call him unusually opaque. After hashing out a question with him, “you may come away thinking, ‘Wow, he agrees with me,’ ” said Rashid Khalidi, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at Columbia and a former adviser to Palestinian diplomatic delegations. “But later, when you get home and think about it, you are not sure.” [****]

But defenders say that Mr. Obama’s reticence is as intellectual as it is tactical. He is a contextualist by nature, they say, suspicious of generalizations. [***] He lived in enough places, at an early enough age, to realize that the same solutions do not work everywhere. Unlike his mother, an idealistic dreamer who moved to Indonesia without realizing a brutal coup had just taken place there, Mr. Obama seems more wary of venturing too far than not far enough. And his years teaching law — particularly chronicling the failure of broad, court-led efforts at social change — gave him a distrust of one-size-fits-all policies.

Countless times on the campaign trail, Mr. Obama has cited the forceful speech he delivered in 2002 against the impending Iraq invasion. It had an unusual mantra for an antiwar rally: “I’m not opposed to all wars,” Mr. Obama repeated again and again, making his point as narrowly as possible.

Similarly, in the recent presidential debates, the candidates twice wrangled over the same question: how should the government cut spending? Mr. McCain called for an across-the-board freeze, but Mr. Obama resisted. “That’s using a hatchet,” he said. “I want to use a scalpel,” he continued, once again bypassing broad principle for a case-by-case approach.
A Commitment to Dialogue
As a law professor at the University of Chicago, Mr. Obama taught a young woman named Uzma Sattar, who was unpopular in class, students said, because of comments she made that others frequently found abrasive. But in a recent interview Ms. Sattar said that Mr. Obama, whom she visited during office hours, was kinder to her than any other faculty member — the only one, she said, who seemed to understand the loneliness of being the sole woman to wear a headscarf.

Barack Obama prides himself on trying to see the world through others’ eyes. In his books, he slips into the heads of his Kenyan relatives, teenage mothers in Chicago, Reagan Democrats, bean farmers in Southern Illinois, and evangelical Christian voters. [something I use in teaching] [it can be quite useful] [but its down side: moral agnosticism ] [******]

He won the presidency of the Harvard Law Review in part because, weeks before voting, he made a speech in favor of affirmative action that so eloquently summarized the objections to it that the Review’s conservatives decided he felt their concerns deeply.

That very first presidential election, carried out in the law school’s stately, leaf-strewn quadrangle, would prove typical of Mr. Obama’s lifelong quest to mediate conflict, and of the way that goal has merged with his own quest for advancement. He wants those on each side of the most toxic conflicts in American life — over race, faith, abortion — to resolve their differences, and in resolving them, to join his cause as well. He has a deep philosophical commitment to dialogue, suggesting that more of it will heal America’s bruised standing in the world, and he has expressed far more willingness to meet with enemies than his primary or general election opponents.

But Mr. Obama’s efforts to relate to everyone can get him in trouble. He initially placed the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., his pastor and an incendiary speaker, at the center of his candidacy, titling a book after one of his sermons and originally asking him to speak at the announcement that he would run for president. [****](Mr. Obama eventually canceled.) “Reverend Wright is a child of the ’60s, and he often expresses himself in that language of concern with institutional racism and the struggles the African-American community has gone through,” he explained in an interview. It took another year and a potentially mortal threat to his campaign for him to sever ties with the minister.

Mr. Obama’s tendency to see things from the perspectives of others, aides say, meant that during the primaries, he could not work up much antipathy for his rivals.

“He’s not consumed by hatred for his opponents,” said David Axelrod, his chief strategist. [****]

In fact, Mr. Obama can be overly familiar with them. When Mr. Obama draped a hand across Cindy McCain’s back after the second presidential debate, she stiffened visibly. He has done the same to President Bush and Mrs. Clinton. In 2004, he approached Alan Keyes, his opponent in the Senate race, at a parade and the situation grew so tense that aides had to diffuse it. [****]

“It’s an uninvited embrace,” said Stanley Renshon, a psychologist who studies presidents, of a habit that Mr. Obama has called unconscious. “Bridging has to be an invitation, not a hand in the back pushing you towards something.”
Bridging the Divide
As a teenager, Mr. Obama, son of a white woman from Kansas and a black father from Kenya, wanted little more than to feel like an African-American. Training his eyes on a grainy television in his grandparents’ Hawaii apartment, he imitated the dance steps on “Soul Train” and Richard Pryor’s outrageous jokes. He locked himself in his bedroom to read James Baldwin and Malcolm X.

Decades later, Mr. Obama is a proud son of the African-American community, and at campaign events with black voters, the connection is visceral. He can seem both more relaxed and more animated than usual, stretching out his stump speech into something more like a sermon, luxuriating in the call-and-response with the crowd.

Most of the time, Mr. Obama speaks lightly of the historic nature of his candidacy, and he is something of a postracial figure, with too many varied influences and constituencies to count. But a few times during the campaign — on the night of his Iowa caucus victory; in Philadelphia when he spoke of America’s failure to grapple with the original sin of slavery — Mr. Obama allowed voters to see just how heavily the country’s divided past sits on his slender shoulders. That weight seems like part of the answer to a central Obama mystery: where all of that burning ambition comes from, what possesses him to push so hard and so fast.

Nearly two decades ago at Harvard, Mr. Obama had his first taste of a barrier-smashing presidential victory, one that made other students weep with jubilation.

Gordon Whitman, one of the classmates who decided that long-ago election, recalled: “We all understood there was a chance to make history.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Air Force Probes General For Actions at Guantanamo

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102502510.html
Air Force Probes General For Actions at Guantanamo
Associated Press
Sunday, October 26, 2008; A18 [bush white house] [consequences of original decisions made at high NSC level] [thereafter bureaucratized] [state, DHS, DOD] [federal judiciary] [the need to get it right on both sides] [snafus on evidentiary issues at gitmo] [evidence inadmissible] [habeus issues] [difficulties in both US and Europe in effectively prosecuting jihadis or alleged jihadis] [followup] [gitmo] [more troubling news on Gen Hartmann] [use psci355, 455] [****]
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico, Oct. 25 -- The Air Force is investigating a top official in the Guantanamo war crimes trials following complaints that he inappropriately sought to influence the prosecution of cases, [***] military officials said Saturday.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102502510.html
Air Force Probes General For Actions at Guantanamo
Associated Press
Sunday, October 26, 2008; A18 [bush white house] [consequences of original decisions made at high NSC level] [thereafter bureaucratized] [state, DHS, DOD] [federal judiciary] [the need to get it right on both sides] [snafus on evidentiary issues at gitmo] [evidence inadmissible] [habeus issues] [difficulties in both US and Europe in effectively prosecuting jihadis or alleged jihadis] [followup] [gitmo] [more troubling news on Gen Hartmann] [use psci355, 455] [****]
SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico, Oct. 25 -- The Air Force is investigating a top official in the Guantanamo war crimes trials following complaints that he inappropriately sought to influence the prosecution of cases, [***] military officials said Saturday.

Air Force Brig. Gen. Thomas W. Hartmann supervised the prosecution of enemy combatants at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, as the legal adviser of the military commissions, until he was reassigned last month.

Air Force Maj. David Frakt, who has represented several Guantanamo detainees, said he and others alerted authorities to possible ethical violations by Hartmann. [****]

Frakt said that he informed his superiors in July of concerns regarding Hartmann's "unprofessional conduct" and "lack of candor." [***]The investigation, he advised, could result in professional sanctions and might give some detainees grounds to challenge actions that Hartmann took in cases against them.

"I'm hopeful that it will result in some accountability for his actions," Frakt said of the probe. "He has not learned the lesson. He believes that he has been promoted from legal adviser and continues to be overly involved in prosecution matters." [*****]

Hartmann was appointed director of operations, planning and development for military commissions in September. The move took him away from direct supervision of the prosecution.

Two judges previously barred Hartmann from acting as legal adviser for a lack of impartiality.

A spokesman for the Office of Military Commissions confirmed the investigation by e-mail but declined to give further details.
The Los Angeles Times reported that the Defense Department Office of Inspector General has launched a separate probe into Hartmann's conduct. [****]
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Military Prepares for Threats During Presidential Transition

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102501944.html
Military Prepares for Threats During Presidential Transition
First Wartime Handover in 40 Years Is Seen as Vulnerable Time
By Ann Scott Tyson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 26, 2008; A18 [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [defense department] [this is probably smart contingency planning on the one hand] [but Bush will remain the commander in chief until the new guy takes over] [so is this aimed for the first few months of the new administration?] [and if it is, isn’t the military overstepping the civilian chain of command a bit?] [110th congress, 2nd session] [*****]
The U.S. military, bracing for the first wartime presidential transition in 40 years, is preparing for potential crises during the vulnerable handover period, including possible attacks by al-Qaeda and destabilizing developments in Iraq or Afghanistan, [***] according to senior military officials. [I think I’m glad] [provided they keep on the same page as the Constitution] [there exists a clear and unambiguous civilian chain of command] [*****]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102501944.html
Military Prepares for Threats During Presidential Transition
First Wartime Handover in 40 Years Is Seen as Vulnerable Time
By Ann Scott Tyson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 26, 2008; A18 [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [defense department] [this is probably smart contingency planning on the one hand] [but Bush will remain the commander in chief until the new guy takes over] [so is this aimed for the first few months of the new administration?] [and if it is, isn’t the military overstepping the civilian chain of command a bit?] [110th congress, 2nd session] [*****]
The U.S. military, bracing for the first wartime presidential transition in 40 years, is preparing for potential crises during the vulnerable handover period, including possible attacks by al-Qaeda and destabilizing developments in Iraq or Afghanistan, [***] according to senior military officials. [I think I’m glad] [provided they keep on the same page as the Constitution] [there exists a clear and unambiguous civilian chain of command] [*****]

"I think the enemy could well take advantage" of the transfer of power in Washington, said the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael Mullen, who launched preparations for the transition months ago, and who will brief the president-elect, the defense secretary nominee and other incoming officials on crisis management and how to run the military. [probably smart] [my only concern is there is only one Constitutional commander in chief at a time] [there are commanders in chief of geographical areas in the military such as patraeus becoming CENTCINC on October 31] [that was what Goldwater-Nichols created by amendment] [but only one article II commander in chief] [****]

Officials are working "to make sure we are postured the right way around the world militarily, that our intelligence is focused on this issue, and in day-to-day operations the military is making sure it does not happen," Mullen said in an interview. "If it does happen, we need to be in a position to respond before and after the inauguration."

Mullen, who will serve at least another year in his two-year appointment as the nation's top military officer, expects to provide critical continuity between the two administrations at a dangerous juncture, the senior officials said. He "will be in effect the bridge between the two," said a senior military official familiar with Mullen's transition team, made up of 14 senior officers from across the services.

The military's primary focus during the transition is twofold: to heighten preparations for a crisis requiring military force, and to anticipate and advise the incoming administration on likely new directions in Iraq and Afghanistan, officials said. High-level briefings on the risks and benefits of new strategies in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as longer-term issues such as military modernization, are already being prepared for national security officials of the incoming administration, they said.

Historically, transition periods are times "of significant vulnerability. . . . The number of major incidents is alarming," Mullen said. In presentations he uses a chart that highlights pre- and post-inauguration crises from the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961 to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. A second, classified chart shows the biggest threats today. "I run out the worst-case scenarios," Mullen said.

A presidential transition in the midst of two major conflicts and the ongoing threat of terrorism raises the stakes even further, officials said. "It is particularly important now because we're turning over in wartime. . . . The last time was in 1968, when we turned over from President Johnson to President Nixon," said a senior military official. "You'd like to think that certainly now military advice has got a lot more respect than it did in 1968 and 1969, but nonetheless the pressures of a wartime transition of authority are great, particularly in a democracy."

In recent days, commentaries on Web sites linked to al-Qaeda have suggested that a terrorist strike might swing the U.S. presidential election in favor of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), leading to an expansion of U.S. military commitments in the Islamic world and further "exhausting" the United States.

Senior military officials and national security experts say major threats before and after the elections include an al-Qaeda strike on the United States that would originate from Pakistan's tribal areas, as well as a terrorist attack involving nuclear, biological or chemical weapons.

"With the election, the economic issues and what is going on in Pakistan and Afghanistan, all this converging at once, it makes a pretty enticing target for al-Qaeda to consider disrupting U.S. national security interests in the short term," said John Rollins, a terrorism expert at the Congressional Research Service.

Recent examples of terrorist activity during political transitions in the United States and elsewhere include the first World Trade Center bombing in 1993, just after President Bill Clinton's inauguration; the Sept. 11 attacks, within the first eight months of the Bush administration; as well as the Madrid train bombings in 2004 and the discovery of the London car-bomb plot in 2007, [****]both of which fell within days of major political events.

The goals of such an attack could include swaying the election, [to sow fear] [I’m not convinced they pick winners] [***] testing a new administration and demonstrating a continued ability to attack U.S. interests at will, Rollins said.

The military is also watching closely for destabilizing events in Iraq and Afghanistan, while monitoring Iran's nuclear activities, Russia's military presence in Georgia and other areas of concern, a senior military official said.

The Joint Staff transition team -- with input from the Army, Marine Corps, Air Force and Navy chiefs and regional military commanders -- is now focused mainly on preparing the briefings that Mullen will use to advise the incoming president and the presumptive defense secretary.

After the Nov. 4 elections, the team will facilitate Mullen's top-level briefings while starting immediately to instruct new senior administration officials on how to run the military.

"The day after the election, the winning party will come over and occupy this building, and they will be the first wave of the transition," said the senior official familiar with Mullen's team. A new defense secretary is likely to be named in December, and he or she will then bring a second wave of new officials to the Pentagon, the official said.

"A new administration will certainly want to do some things differently; whether it's Senator Obama or Senator McCain, they're going to approach problems from a different angle," the official said. Mullen must therefore be prepared to offer advice on a range of new policies for the war zones, such as a more rapid withdrawal from Iraq.

Yet while senior military officers typically view themselves as a bridge between administrations, the incoming political team may distrust their loyalties. [***]

"Despite the military's self-image that they are above politics and are servants of the nation, there frequently is the perception that the senior levels of generals are the choices of the previous administration and are somehow tainted," [****]said one retired Army general. "We saw this at the beginning of the Clinton era and the Bush era. There is a suspicion these are somebody else's generals and not as objective." As a result, senior military leaders must work hard to "navigate the center course," he said.

Mullen has asked the transition team, led by Marine Corps Brig. Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., to anticipate and prepare for a number of changes -- from whom the new administration will pick for its top defense officials to what new policies it may adopt, particularly for Iraq and Afghanistan.

The team reports to a senior Pentagon steering group set up for the transition that includes Mullen, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, and other senior military and defense leaders and is chaired by Gates's special assistant, Robert Rangel. [again, I think I like this idea] [it seems to be smart and respectful of the civilian chain of command] [****]

Mullen's team will carry out exercises to show new administration officials the mechanics of handling a crisis. "We will . . . show them how you actually operate the levers of the military power of the United States," said the official familiar with the team.

"You don't want to go cold in a crisis, without having established a common framework of understanding" and a rapport between the incoming Pentagon leadership and Mullen and other top military officers, [***] he said. "Anything we can do to shorten the learning curve . . . will help."
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Tea With the Taliban?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102402804.html
Tea With the Taliban?
By David Ignatius
Sunday, October 26, 2008; B07 [oped] [columnist] [AfPak] [the idea of negotiating and peeling off some of the Taliban] [while I have always maintained jihadis cannot be negotiated with] [some of the Taliban are not true jihadis: they are content to confine themselves to AfPak] [*****]
As U.S. and European officials ponder what to do about the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, they are coming to a perhaps surprising conclusion: The simplest way to stabilize the country may be to negotiate a truce with the Taliban fundamentalists who were driven from power by the United States in 2001. [with certain ones, anyway] [***]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102402804.html
Tea With the Taliban?
By David Ignatius
Sunday, October 26, 2008; B07 [oped] [columnist] [AfPak] [the idea of negotiating and peeling off some of the Taliban] [while I have always maintained jihadis cannot be negotiated with] [some of the Taliban are not true jihadis: they are content to confine themselves to AfPak] [*****]
As U.S. and European officials ponder what to do about the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, they are coming to a perhaps surprising conclusion: The simplest way to stabilize the country may be to negotiate a truce with the Taliban fundamentalists who were driven from power by the United States in 2001. [with certain ones, anyway] [***]

The question policymakers are pondering, in fact, isn't whether to negotiate with the Taliban but when. There's a widespread view among Bush administration officials and U.S. military commanders that it's too soon for serious talks, because any negotiation now would be from a position of weakness. Some argue for a U.S. troop buildup and an aggressive military campaign next year to secure Afghan population centers, followed by negotiations.

How the worm turns: A few years ago, it would have been unthinkable that the United States would consider any rapprochement with the Taliban militants who gave sanctuary to Osama bin Laden as he planned the devastating attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. But the painful experience of Iraq and Afghanistan has convinced many U.S. commanders that if you can take an enemy off the battlefield through negotiations, that's better than getting pinned down in protracted combat. [***]

Defense Secretary Robert Gates made the argument for negotiations with the Taliban bluntly on Oct. 9, [****]during a meeting in Budapest with NATO allies who are wearying of the conflict. "There has to be ultimately -- and I'll underscore ultimately -- reconciliation as part of a political outcome to this," Gates told reporters. "That's ultimately the exit strategy for all of us." [***]

Gen. David Petraeus, the new Centcom commander who has overall responsibility for the wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan, has made similar arguments. He believes that the United States must work to separate the "reconcilables" [I agree that some Talib are reconcilable but determining who will be harder than some think] [***] among the Taliban from those who are allied with al-Qaeda, and draw the moderates into the government. Petraeus successfully pursued that strategy with Sunni Muslim insurgents in Iraq -- encouraging them to break with al-Qaeda and then forming alliances with them. [****]

Petraeus believes that an effort to co-opt the Afghan insurgency should probably be accompanied by a stronger U.S. troop presence, just as it was in Iraq. But he argues that it's a mistake to think that there's a purely military solution in either country. [that’s a good sign] [****] [go back and look at CORDs in Viet Nam] [it started working in 1970-1971] [read, Once A Warrior King] [****] "You can't kill or capture your way out of this," he explains.

A move to negotiate with the Taliban is already underway, perhaps prematurely, thanks to a quiet diplomatic push by Saudi Arabia. Late last month, at the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, Saudi King Abdullah met in Mecca with representatives of the Taliban and other Afghan insurgent groups headed by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Jalaluddin Haqqani.

Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai, who was represented in Mecca by his brother Qayoum Karzai, supported the Saudi mediation. "We're at the very early stages now, but we do have hope for the future," Qayoum Karzai told Agence France-Presse after the talks ended.

President Karzai is said to have demanded that the Taliban's leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, publicly renounce bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, as a condition for further talks. A Taliban representative took this demand to Mullah Omar in his hideout in Afghanistan and returned to Mecca with a positive answer, according to a source familiar with the talks.

Mullah Omar has sent the Saudis a list of seven demands of his own, according to this source. Among the items on the Taliban agenda are a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan; a role for Taliban representatives in provincial and national government; assimilation of Taliban fighters into the Afghan army; and amnesty for guerrillas who fought against the United States. [wow] [that’s not bad] [but no one should be blinded—no pun intended—by what he intends] [he intends to rebuild his forces over time and use the respite to prepare a takeover of Afghanistan whether by elections or force] [but his influence lower than it once was so it may well be worth it] [provided the US is prepared to follow through over the long hall] [****]

The Saudis have proposed a second round of discussions in Mecca in early December, when the hajj pilgrimage season begins. U.S. officials are said to be skeptical that anything useful will come from the exercise, but France and Britain -- increasingly worried about the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan -- appear to be encouraging the Saudi effort. [***] Some Pakistani government and army leaders are also supportive.

It would be political suicide for Barack Obama or John McCain to suggest that America reach an accommodation with Taliban fighters who once aided al-Qaeda. But Gates notes that we reached just such an accord in Iraq with Sunni insurgents who had the blood of Americans on their hands. "At the end of the day, that's how most wars end," [***] he said.
The writer is co-host ofPostGlobal, an online discussion of international issues. His e-mail address isdavidignatius@washpost.com.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

A World in Need of a New Order

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102402801.html
A World in Need of a New Order
By Jim Hoagland
Sunday, October 26, 2008; B07 [oped] [columnist] [global economic meltdown] [***]
It is the global economy this time, stupid.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102402801.html
A World in Need of a New Order
By Jim Hoagland
Sunday, October 26, 2008; B07 [oped] [columnist] [global economic meltdown] [***]
It is the global economy this time, stupid.

Even the Bush administration now accepts that serious international economic coordination is needed to overcome the shattering financial crisis that has reduced the final days of the U.S. election season to slogan-mongering irrelevance. [***]

The campaign promises of Barack Obama and John McCain -- to revitalize the national economy single-handedly while painlessly providing expensive new benefits to the electorate -- are the political equivalent of collateralized debt obligations or junk bonds. This crisis is international in nature and can be resolved only by sustained international reform and greater interdependence.

That will be true whether it is Obama or McCain who takes office on Jan. 20. The victor will necessarily share global leadership as no American president has since World War II. The first vital question is: Share with whom? A quiet struggle to determine which countries will decide the shape of a new international financial architecture is already underway among the world's presidents, prime ministers, kings and emirs.

There is some good news on this front. Led by Britain and France, other nations are providing creative ideas and fresh energy in the hunt for solutions to the worldwide credit crash. [****]A non-ideological, action-oriented common approach is being forged by the immense dangers the system faces. President-elect Obama or McCain will find capable partners ready for a new pattern of global leadership that must be rooted in pragmatism.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown (and Mervyn King, the adept head of Britain's central bank) usefully galvanized thinking in Washington on partially nationalizing banks at a crucial moment earlier in this nerve-racking month. The principles that Brown has laid out to guide government action in rescuing the private sector strip away old ideologies of the left and the right. He has converted New Labor's romantic Third Way philosophy into a desperate Only Way (to prevent disaster) imperative.

And French President Nicolas Sarkozy has constructively hammered away for months at the need for a new Bretton Woods agreement -- that is, for an overhaul of the international financial institutions and rules that have prevailed for six decades. He finds ways to represent all points on the political spectrum, at different times, or at the same time, as need demands.

When the two met at Camp David last weekend, President Bush reluctantly agreed to host the first in the series of meetings among global leaders to redesign the global financial architecture. It was one last bitter pill to be swallowed by Bush, [***]who has had to toss, piecemeal, his unfettered free-market ideology into history's junkyard in his eight years in office. This time Bush acted to keep his successor's options open.

Sarkozy wanted to anchor the opening round of talks among the Group of Eight industrial powers that unites North America, Europe, Japan and Russia and then hold an expanded 14-nation session that would have brought in developing countries led by China, India and Egypt, according to U.S. and French sources. He also suggested that the opening talks be held in New York.

Bush ruled out New York, wanting to eliminate any suggestion that the new effort would be overseen by the United Nations. But he did make a bow to developing countries by agreeing to host a meeting of the G-20, [****]a forum of affluent and emerging nations that, not so coincidentally, will be headed next year by Britain's Brown.

Bush's G-20 stratagem brings into the talks one much-needed participant -- Saudi Arabia, [***] which was not on Sarkozy's list -- and dilutes the potentially unhelpful influence of G-8 member Russia. [I’m not sure that’s exactly right] [I think Russia’s influence will be diluted by falling oil prices more than the exact number of participants] [put differently, the number of participants probably dilutes each member’s influence roughly equally] [****]

The Saudis are not just U.S. friends; they hold the key to world energy prices. [okay, I get his argument] [yes, that makes sense] [***] According to U.S. officials, the Saudis put extra oil onto world markets this year to restrain price spikes. They also possess enormous cash reserves and have lately been willing to exert constructive leadership on Middle East political issues. So Bush is right to host Saudi King Abdullah with 18 other leaders at a White House dinner on Nov. 14, according to current plans.

The only important decision to come out of the Nov. 15 talks is likely to be when and where to meet again and perhaps to link a conclusion of the current round of World Trade Organization negotiations to this new process.

But this gathering will be important as a symbol of the launching of a new era in which new balances between consumers and producers should be established and past financial wrongdoing is vigorously exposed and punished. If Bretton Woods II leads to those two results, we should all support it.
jimhoagland@washpost.com
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

A World in Crisis Means A Chance for Greatness

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/23/AR2008102302984.html
A World in Crisis Means A Chance for Greatness
By Robert B. Zoellick
Sunday, October 26, 2008; B04 [oped] [the global economic meltdown as opportunity?] [I’m not sure I like that idea] [taking a tragedy and using it to build a political brand] [***]
Aspiring U.S. politicians dream of being FDR, but rarely do the times and the person converge. The next president will have the chance to be a 21st-century FDR.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/23/AR2008102302984.html
A World in Crisis Means A Chance for Greatness
By Robert B. Zoellick
Sunday, October 26, 2008; B04 [oped] [the global economic meltdown as opportunity?] [I’m not sure I like that idea] [taking a tragedy and using it to build a political brand] [***]
Aspiring U.S. politicians dream of being FDR, but rarely do the times and the person converge. The next president will have the chance to be a 21st-century FDR.

For either Barack Obama or John McCain, the first duty will be to restore confidence. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been allotted to fix the financial breakdown. But fears have gripped the country. The new president needs not only a bold program but also the resolution to reassure.

The parallels with FDR offer a striking starting point. The new administration will need to recapitalize banks. It will also need to offer millions of American families a lifeline by helping homeowners manage their mortgage debts while staying in their homes. This modernized New Deal would simultaneously extend a hand to the broad middle class while countering the continuing slide in house prices that continue to drive down communities, lenders' portfolios and trust. The new president will need to overhaul a failed financial regulatory and supervisory system in a way that preserves innovation. [***]

He will need to establish clearing and settlement mechanisms to ensure that failing firms do not freeze credit markets, to set strong liquidity as well as capital standards for the financial sector, and to thwart irresponsible behavior. And beyond all that, the new team will need a fiscal-stimulus package that the New Deal left out.

Political leadership is not just about programs and bills. The new president will need to use his first hundred days to build his standing. He must point the way to use the United States' ingenuity and restored sense of purpose to build for the future: quality schools, basic health-care choices and worker assistance to help citizens adjust to change in a competitive world; immigration rules that let the United States attract talent and regenerate its spirit; and more low-carbon technology to enable growth while protecting both the environment and national security. Then, after opening the coffers of the U.S. Treasury, the president will need to guide both Congress and the public to rebuild savings and responsibility. [****]

The next president faces another historic challenge: reintroducing the United States to the world. [****]He could make a good start by promptly sending the vice president and the new secretaries of state, Treasury and defense to consult with countries large and small, developed and developing, on all continents. In early 1989, Secretary of State James A. Baker III visited 15 NATO allies in eight days. With four emissaries, the new president could reach 50 countries or more in his first months in office. [recall Zoelick was Bush’s envoy to Sudan who did a great job of negotiating between Darfur rebels and Khartoum] [that it has since fallen apart does no deny his important efforts] [and for that matter, Bush stepped in at a crucial point] [one of the few good things Bush did in second term] [***]

Those envoys should have a simple message: to listen and learn. Of course, the new team should have some initial ideas and priorities to discuss, but taking the time to hear other world leaders' insights and concerns will prove as shrewd an investment as recapitalizing the banks.

In 1944, FDR and the other architects of the postwar Bretton Woods system built for the future even as they fought the armies of the past. The Bretton Woods generation left two legacies: first, international institutions (such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund) and, second, an intellectual and political commitment to act multilaterally to turn the problems of an era into opportunities.

The new president can build on that legacy by modernizing multilateralism and markets. A new Bretton Woods should start by recognizing that the old G-7 club of the world's most industrialized nations needs to give way to a new steering group that includes rising economic stakeholders. Rather than return to mid-20th-century models, the new multilateralism needs to be flexible, not fixed. It must be pragmatic, too -- maximizing the strength of interconnected global actors, including not just existing institutions such as the World Bank, the IMF and the United Nations but also private-sector firms and NGOs. In a networked world, we need networked multilateralism. That should be a litmus test for a Bretton Woods 2.0. [Zoelick became world bank guy for a while didn’t he?] [correction: currently head of World Bank Group] [I think he replaced Wolfowitz after the latter’s scandal] [****]

The new multilateralism will need to connect, for example, growth, development, trade, energy and climate change. The world expects to negotiate a new climate-change treaty by the end of next year, and that depends on recognizing development interests while shifting to lower carbon growth. To help the "bottom billion" in post-conflict and fragile states, the United Nations and the World Bank need to secure development with roots deep enough to break the cycle of fragility and violence.

A new president should build on his predecessor's financial innovations for development, including for HIV/AIDS treatment, the Millennium Challenge Corporation and the new Climate Investment Funds. The aftershocks of the developed countries' financial crisis and recession will also require the United States to work with other countries, the World Bank and the IMF to help the most vulnerable. We need a human rescue, not just a financial rescue. With the global economy under stress, the world will be watching the president's commitment to cutting trade barriers and wasteful agricultural subsidies in the Doha World Trade Organization negotiation.

The rise of such developing economies as China and India provides the world with multiple poles of growth that can help a global recovery. But the emergence of these big new economic players also serves as fodder for scaremongers, intent on whipping up fear about the effects on living standards in the developed world.

Some 25 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with almost two-thirds of the region's population, boast growth rates that averaged about 6.6 percent between 1997 and 2007. A boom in what has historically been one of the world's poorest regions would be a great achievement, saving many of the bottom billion and freeing untapped talent and energy.

But it will be an achievement left unrealized unless a new president, as in times past, has the vision and the courage to stand up to the challenges of isolationism at home and to offer the leadership to help make it happen.

Both candidates have recognized the dangers in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but success will take more than troops. The earliest hard-edged test for the new administration will be synthesizing security, governance, legitimacy and development in a long-term partnership with both countries and with a wider coalition, from NATO to China and India.

The most conspicuous signal the new president could send would be tackling the Middle East peace process. Security and democracy for Israel, combined with dignity, development and statehood for the Palestinians and peace with Syria, would transform a battered and brutal landscape, as well as relationships in the region. By now, all the parties know the basic terms of the deals, but only the United States can bring the parties together and organize the supporting political, security and economic embrace. With peace, we can secure development and regional integration for the many millions in the Middle East who are being left behind.

A successful wind-down in Iraq, a path of progress for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and a push for peace and development in the Middle East will also set the context for achieving broader peace and security in the region.

All in all, a tall order. But so was FDR's.
Robert B. Zoellick is president of the World Bank Group. A former vice chairman of Goldman Sachs, he served as deputy secretary of state in 2005-06 and as U.S. trade representative in 2001-05.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Rogues Gone Bust

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102501666.html
Rogues Gone Bust
U.S. adversaries were delighted by the economic crisis -- until it affected the price of oil.
Sunday, October 26, 2008; B06 [editorial] [troublesome national actors fueled by petrodollars] [I cannot think of a better reason to make energy independence a national-security issue] [use psci355, 455, 350] [*******]
A FEW WEEKS ago, the leaders of Russia, Iran and Venezuela were gloating gleefully that the financial crisis would depose the United States as the world's leading power. Yet as the price of oil dropped below $65 last week -- or less than half its peak price last summer -- it was looking more likely that global economic turmoil would produce a quite different result: the substantial weakening of those countries' challenge to U.S. interests in Europe, the Middle East and Latin America. [****]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102501666.html
Rogues Gone Bust
U.S. adversaries were delighted by the economic crisis -- until it affected the price of oil.
Sunday, October 26, 2008; B06 [editorial] [troublesome national actors fueled by petrodollars] [I cannot think of a better reason to make energy independence a national-security issue] [use psci355, 455, 350] [*******]
A FEW WEEKS ago, the leaders of Russia, Iran and Venezuela were gloating gleefully that the financial crisis would depose the United States as the world's leading power. Yet as the price of oil dropped below $65 last week -- or less than half its peak price last summer -- it was looking more likely that global economic turmoil would produce a quite different result: the substantial weakening of those countries' challenge to U.S. interests in Europe, the Middle East and Latin America. [****]

Unless oil prices quickly recover, Venezuela's Hugo Chávez and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are likely to face even tougher domestic economic challenges in 2009 than the next U.S. president. [***] According to independent estimates, both countries need an average oil price of up to $95 a barrel to fund the populist subsidies and social programs they have launched in recent years -- not to mention billions of dollars in arms purchases from Russia. [***] Venezuela has been furiously importing food to fill empty shop shelves, while Iran heavily subsidizes domestic fuel. Even if Mr. Chávez and Mr. Ahmadinejad manage to continue those politically sensitive programs, they may find it harder to sponsor foreign clients -- from Hamas and Hezbollah in the Middle East to Cuba's Castro brothers. Already Mr. Chávez has stiffed Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega, to whom he had promised a $4 billion oil refinery. [****] [use ir text] [conclusion on transnationalism] [***]

Though somewhat less reliant on oil revenue, Russia may be even worse off, because of its dependence on foreign investment. The Russian stock market has dropped more than 70 percent since last spring, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has had to commit more than $200 billion of the country's reserves to shore up banks. In the past several years, Mr. Putin has several times interrupted energy deliveries to European clients to make political points; he may have less financial leeway to wield that weapon in the future.

Will the decline of revenue lessen the hostility of these regimes toward the United States? There are some intriguing early signs. Russia unexpectedly announced last week that it would not oppose an extension of the U.N. mandate for U.S. troops in Iraq. Though it has refused to rein in its nuclear program, Iran has at least temporarily curbed Hamas, Hezbollah and the "special groups" of Iraq, which in recent months have all but ceased attacks on American and Israeli targets.

Mr. Chávez was notably disturbed when both Barack Obama and John McCain pledged in their final debate to eliminate U.S. dependence on Venezuelan oil within a decade. [good reason to make sure the US does so] [***] The caudillo quickly appeared on television with an appeal to the candidates that "instead of saying that they are going to free themselves [of Venezuelan oil], what we have to do is sit down and talk and come to an agreement because we need each other." Is that the "Bolivarian revolutionary" suddenly seeking rapprochement with "the empire?" If so, it may not be the last such offer that the global economic crisis delivers to the next president's desk.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

The Mortgage Dilemma

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102501665.html
The Mortgage Dilemma
The FDIC chairwoman's idea shows promise, and faces an old problem.
Sunday, October 26, 2008; B06 [editorial] [global economic meltdown] [how to fix it here in US] [****]
DESPITE EFFORTS by the federal government and the private sector, foreclosures are still on the rise. The Bush administration is under pressure to do more about the problem, and the latest statements from senior officials suggest that it will soon try. In part, this reflects election-year politics: Having authorized hundreds of billions of dollars to rescue banks, Congress and the president can hardly seem to dismiss homeowners. [***] But there are legitimate social and economic reasons to limit foreclosures. Foreclosures not only cost families their homes, they drive down the property values of whole neighborhoods. And since sinking home prices triggered the financial crisis, the more that can be done to stop their downward spiral, the better.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102501665.html
The Mortgage Dilemma
The FDIC chairwoman's idea shows promise, and faces an old problem.
Sunday, October 26, 2008; B06 [editorial] [global economic meltdown] [how to fix it here in US] [****]
DESPITE EFFORTS by the federal government and the private sector, foreclosures are still on the rise. The Bush administration is under pressure to do more about the problem, and the latest statements from senior officials suggest that it will soon try. In part, this reflects election-year politics: Having authorized hundreds of billions of dollars to rescue banks, Congress and the president can hardly seem to dismiss homeowners. [***] But there are legitimate social and economic reasons to limit foreclosures. Foreclosures not only cost families their homes, they drive down the property values of whole neighborhoods. And since sinking home prices triggered the financial crisis, the more that can be done to stop their downward spiral, the better.

This is much more easier said than done, however. Every proposal to arrest the wave of foreclosures faces the same dilemma. If you offer a new and better deal to some distressed homeowners, you give homeowners who are not in distress an incentive to seek the same deal. [***]At the margin, people who are, or could be, current on their loans would go into arrears to qualify for a loan modification. A broad plan might prop up house prices generally, at the cost, financial and moral, of putting taxpayers on the hook for borrowers who could make it on their own. A narrow plan would be fairer to taxpayers but lift home prices only modestly.

This is why the results of voluntary efforts to modify troubled subprime loans, such as the Treasury-supported Hope Now program, have been relatively meager. [***] Lenders work case by case lest they encourage unnecessary defaults. The Hope for Homeownership program, which went into effect Oct. 1, was also probably oversold. It offered $300 billion worth of federally guaranteed refinancings for borrowers who met certain eligibility criteria. But since it also required both borrowers and lenders to take a financial "haircut" in return for the help, there may not be many takers.

Which brings us to the notion sketched by Sheila C. Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. She suggested last week that the government set out a standardized loan modification package for loan servicers to follow, enabling them to do workouts faster. [****]In return for their picking up the pace, the government would guarantee some or all of the newly modified loans. By offering a strong material incentive to lenders, Ms. Bair's concept addresses one of the weaknesses of previous proposals. It is not yet clear, however, how it would shield servicers from potential lawsuits by disgruntled investors who own loans via securities. To be acceptable at all, the proposal must limit relief to a particular set of troubled, low- or moderate-income borrowers who have had their loans for some time. [***] It would be dangerous to extend it to recent or future borrowers. But if there was a simple and fair way to get relief to homeowners, it probably would have turned up by now.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Group Swamps Swing States With Movie on Radical Islam

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102502092.html
Group Swamps Swing States With Movie on Radical Islam
By Kimberly Kindy
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 26, 2008; A13 [SIGs] [societal] [on dangers of radical islam] [while I agree with that as far as it goes, do they distinguish between Sunni-Salafi jihadis and Islamists?] [do they distinguish between jihadis and Shi’ia groups such as Hezbollah that pose different threats] [are they unnecessarily stirring up fear?] [apparently linked to election-year politics since they sent movie as election nears to key battleground states] [this is a bit scary] [****]
A New York-based organization [what NY-based organization?] [***] has sent copies of a movie about Islamist extremism to more than 28 million houses and religious institutions in presidential election battleground states over the past several weeks. [***]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102502092.html
Group Swamps Swing States With Movie on Radical Islam
By Kimberly Kindy
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 26, 2008; A13 [SIGs] [societal] [on dangers of radical islam] [while I agree with that as far as it goes, do they distinguish between Sunni-Salafi jihadis and Islamists?] [do they distinguish between jihadis and Shi’ia groups such as Hezbollah that pose different threats] [are they unnecessarily stirring up fear?] [apparently linked to election-year politics since they sent movie as election nears to key battleground states] [this is a bit scary] [****]
A New York-based organization [what NY-based organization?] [***] has sent copies of a movie about Islamist extremism to more than 28 million houses and religious institutions in presidential election battleground states over the past several weeks. [***]

The 60-minute documentary-style production, "Obsession: Radical Islam's War Against the West," includes images of terrorist attacks from around the world, historic footage of Nazi rallies and modern-day scenes of Muslim children reciting poetry that celebrates suicide bombings. [****] The costs of producing and distributing the film, through mass mailings and newspaper inserts -- an effort that one Muslim advocacy group estimates at $50 million -- were paid by the Clarion Fund, [****]a nonprofit group that says it is seeking "to educate Americans about issues of national security to influence voters."

Members of several Muslim groups have condemned the film, saying that it is inflammatory and that it could incite violence against them.

"It's a mind-boggling massive campaign. When you send material like this almost exclusively to presidential swing states that sends a message that you are trying to influence the election," [is it a 527?] [***] said Ibrahim Hooper, a spokesman for the Washington-based Council on American-Islamic Relations. "It's inappropriate as a nonprofit for the Clarion Fund to do."

The council filed complaints with the Federal Election Commission and the Internal Revenue Service last month, accusing the group of promoting the candidacy of Sen. John McCain over Sen. Barack Obama's. [it’s pretty clear that Clarion supports McCain but making that stick will be difficult and how quickly can either the FEC or IRS move?] [****] Federal election and tax laws prohibit nonprofit organizations from promoting specific candidates.

One of the Clarion Fund's Web sites, http://www.radicalislam.com, posted an article two weeks ago that stated, "McCain's policies seek to confront radical Islamic extremism and terrorism and roll it back while Obama's, although intending to do the same, could in fact make the situation facing the West even worse." [oops, that’s pretty damning] [****]

The Clarion Fund has since removed the article, but its Web site still links readers to a vast network of sites that promote McCain. [***]The election has also dominated panel discussions at dozens of Clarion-organized private screenings of the film and its recently released sequel, "The Third Jihad."

Clarion Fund spokesman Gregory Ross said that the group's intent had been to distribute "The Third Jihad" in the mass mailings but that the production was not completed in time. In an e-mail, a Clarion staff member and fundraiser said the sequel's planned rollout in September was meant to coincide with the elections. [this doesn’t even appear to be veiled] [they seem open about their intent] [how dramatically is the FEC able to move?] [****]

"The film is in post-production now and we will be able to take it to the masses in time to make the issue a central topic in the Presidential elections," fundraiser Matt Weisbaum said in a July 15 e-mail obtained by The Washington Post. The message was sent to members of Jewish Republicans of Colorado.

Distribution of the film has been focused primarily on battleground states such as Virginia, Colorado, Florida and Ohio. Virginia residents began receiving DVDs of "Obsession" last week.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations estimates that the Clarion Fund spent $50 million to produce and distribute the film. Ross said it has been a "multimillion-dollar" effort. [****]

Clarion refuses to reveal the identity of donors who funded the making of the "Obsession" in 2006 and paid for the costs associated with its distribution. Because Clarion is a nonprofit group, it is not legally required to disclose names of its financial backers. [****]

Ross called the film "educational" and said its release was scheduled to coincide with the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, not the elections.

"It was done in order to commemorate and remind people of the tragedy of 9/11 and that the threat still remains in America for terrorist activity," Ross said.

Ross also said that Peter Mier, who is listed as the executive producer in the opening credits, and Brett Halperin, who is listed as the production manager, are aliases. [***] He said both men wish to remain anonymous. "They are afraid of lawsuits being filed against them personally," Ross said. "They are afraid of radical Islamists."

"Obsession" was produced by Israeli filmmaker Raphael Shore, who is one of three officers of the Clarion Fund. He and the other officers, Rabbi Henry Harris and Rebecca Kabat, are also employees of Aish HaTorah International, a Jerusalem-based organization that focuses on national security issues in Israel. [I’ll say the same thing that I wrote about the UN piece in today’s external] [groups from foreign nations would be well advised to stay out of US elections] [Americans do not take kindly to perceived interference whether it’s from an ally or enemy] [*****]

The Clarion Fund and Aish HaTorah shared the same New York City address in incorporation documents. Calls to Aish HaTorah's offices in Jerusalem were not returned. Ross said Harris and Kabat are no longer with the organization. The names of new officers will not be disclosed until Nov. 15, the IRS deadline for the nonprofit group to file a mandatory annual information form. [right after the election] [11 days after] [while I think Americans need to remember 9/11 and, in that limited sense, agree with the “educational” message] [this smacks of fear mongering and interference in US elections by outsiders] [a dangerous game] [this seeks to polarize Americans more] [***]

Screenings of both films have been organized by a variety of groups and individuals, including members of Congress. Rep. Trent Franks (R-Ariz.) has showed the films, most recently at the Mary Pickford Theater in the Library of Congress Madison Building, with about 50 people in attendance.

Franks said he was unaware of the mass mailing of "Obsession" or the complaints filed against Clarion. But he said that it is important for people to see both films and that he continues to support their message. The films warn of a terrorism threat by radical Islamist groups, the first focusing on international concerns and the latest on the United States.

"The coincidence of jihadist ideology and nuclear proliferation represents the greatest danger to human peace in the world," Franks said in an interview. "We also have to recognize that if that ideology is to be defeated." [****]

The Obama campaign declined to comment on the Clarion Fund and the distribution of the films.

Brian Rogers, a McCain campaign spokesman, said there is no coordinated effort between the campaign and the Clarion Fund but added, "It's not surprising, however, that people who are concerned about radical Islamic extremists would tend to find in John McCain someone who fundamentally understands that threat and is best prepared to take it on." [******]
Research editor Alice Crites contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Financial Meltdown Worsens Food Crisis

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102502293.html
Financial Meltdown Worsens Food Crisis
As Global Prices Soar, More People Go Hungry
By Ariana Eunjung Cha and Stephanie McCrummen
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, October 26, 2008; A01 [China] [larger problem of underdeveloped countries dependent on commodities more than manufactured goods] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
SHANGHAI -- As shock waves from the credit crisis began to spread around the world last month, China scrambled to protect itself. Among the most extreme measures it took was to impose new export taxes to keep critical supplies such as grains and fertilizer from leaving the country.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102502293.html
Financial Meltdown Worsens Food Crisis
As Global Prices Soar, More People Go Hungry
By Ariana Eunjung Cha and Stephanie McCrummen
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, October 26, 2008; A01 [China] [larger problem of underdeveloped countries dependent on commodities more than manufactured goods] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
SHANGHAI -- As shock waves from the credit crisis began to spread around the world last month, China scrambled to protect itself. Among the most extreme measures it took was to impose new export taxes to keep critical supplies such as grains and fertilizer from leaving the country.

About 5,700 miles away, in Nairobi, farmer Stephen Muchiri is suffering the consequences.

It's planting season now, but he can afford to sow amaranthus and haricot beans on only half of the 10 acres he owns because the cost of the fertilizer he needs has shot up nearly $50 a bag in a matter of weeks. [***] Muchiri said nearly everyone he knows is cutting back on planting, which means even less food for a continent where the supply has already been weakened by drought, political unrest and rising prices.

While the world's attention has been focused on rescuing investment banks and stock markets from collapse, the global food crisis has worsened, a casualty of the growing financial tumult.

Oxfam, the Britain-based aid group, estimates that economic chaos this year has pulled the incomes of an additional 119 million people below the poverty line. Richer countries from the United States to the Persian Gulf are busy helping themselves and have been slow to lend a hand. [***]

The contrast between the rapid-fire reaction by Western authorities to the financial crisis and their comparatively modest response to soaring food prices earlier this year has triggered anger among aid and farming groups.

"The amount of money used for the bailouts in the U.S. and Europe -- people here are saying that money is enough to feed the poor in Africa for the next three years," said Muchiri, head of the Eastern Africa Farmers Federation.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that 923 million people were seriously undernourished in 2007. Its director-general, Jacques Diouf, said in a recent speech that he worries about cuts in aid to agriculture in developing countries. He said he is also concerned by protectionist trade measures intended to counteract the financial turmoil.

Although the price of commodities has come down in the past few months, Diouf said, 36 countries still need emergency assistance for food, and he warned of a looming disaster next year if countries do not make food security a top priority.

"The global financial crisis should not make us forget the food crisis," Diouf said.

Commodity prices have plummeted in recent weeks as investors have shown increasing concern about a global recession and a drop in the demand for goods. [***] Wheat futures for December delivery closed at $5.1625 on Friday -- down 62 percent from a record set in February. Corn futures are down 53 percent from their all-time high, and soybean futures are 47 percent lower.

Such declines, while initially welcomed by consumers, could eventually increase deflationary pressures -- lower prices could mean less incentive for farmers to cultivate crops. That, in turn, could exacerbate the global food shortage.

In June, governments, donors and agencies gathered in Rome to pledge $12.3 billion to address the world's worst food crisis in a generation. But only $1 billion has been disbursed. [***] An additional $1.3 billion, [***] which had been earmarked by the European Commission for helping African farmers, is tied up in bureaucracy, with some governments now arguing that they can no longer afford to give up that money.

"The financial crisis is providing an excuse for people across the spectrum -- governments, multilateral organizations, companies -- to not do the right thing," said Oxfam spokeswoman Amy Barry.

The precarious aid situation is compounded by export taxes and bans imposed this year by a number of grain- and fertilizer-producing nations, including China, India, Pakistan, Ukraine and Argentina.

E.U. Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson has criticized export restrictions because they "drive up world prices and cut off supplies of raw materials." Such restrictions, he said, "invite a cycle of retaliation that is as economically counterproductive as it is politically hard to resist," Mandelson said last month.

China -- the world's biggest grain and rice producer and the biggest exporter of certain types of fertilizer -- could see its moves having ripple effects on vulnerable countries. [***]

“The world relies on China for food security,” said Anthea Webb, China country director for the U.N. World Food Program. “The world supply and demand is a big equation, and China is a big part of that.” [interesting bit of info] [****]

China's new taxes on fertilizer exports, which went into effect Sept. 1, range from 150 to 185 percent. [****]Chinese authorities said they need to ensure that prices are low at home to protect their own farmers and ensure an adequate supply of food for their residents.

Although the measure has been good for China, it has been devastating to other countries. A dozen Chinese fertilizer companies said they had stopped exporting this month.

"If we export abroad, we can make zero profit or even a loss," said Liu Chengyong, the sales manager at Henan Yuzhongao Technological Agricultural Co., which produces about 150,000 tons of fertilizer a year. [***]

It is unclear whether the export taxes are legal under the World Trade Organization. Technically, the WTO bans all export taxes as barriers to free trade but allows for exceptions in emergency situations.

Soaring fertilizer prices triggered by China's taxes are deepening the food crisis in parts of Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Somalia.

Eustace Muriuki, general manager of Mea Ltd., the second-largest fertilizer importer for East Africa, said the price of a bag of fertilizer is currently about five times what it was a little more than a year ago.

Muriuki imports about a quarter of his fertilizer from China. He said losing China as a supplier would be particularly painful because it has been a relatively cheap and easy option, with so many shipping vessels traveling between China and Africa.

Betty Kibaara, an analyst with the Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development in Nairobi, said China's decision is only going to make a bad situation worse in Kenya.

Kenya's post-election crisis this year displaced hundreds of thousands of farmers who planted their cornfields late or not at all, and often without fertilizer because the price was too high.

The current harvest, which continues through November, is producing a yield that is worse than expected. And if fertilizer prices are still soaring during the next planting season, the country's deficit of corn -- its staple food -- will only grow. "We are in big trouble," [****]Kibaara said.
McCrummen reported from Nairobi. Researcher Liu Liu in Beijing contributed to this
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Leaders of Europe and Asia Call for Joint Economic Action

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/world/asia/26asem.html
October 26, 2008
Leaders of Europe and Asia Call for Joint Economic Action
By REUTERS [Hong Kong] [China] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
HONG KONG — Leaders from across Asia and Europe gathered in Beijing on Friday and Saturday and called for a coordinated response to the global financial crisis, in an event that underlined China’s growing role as a diplomatic counterweight to the United States, [****] but fell short of offering specific solutions.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/world/asia/26asem.html
October 26, 2008
Leaders of Europe and Asia Call for Joint Economic Action
By REUTERS [Hong Kong] [China] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
HONG KONG — Leaders from across Asia and Europe gathered in Beijing on Friday and Saturday and called for a coordinated response to the global financial crisis, in an event that underlined China’s growing role as a diplomatic counterweight to the United States, [****] but fell short of offering specific solutions.

In the difficult balance between preserving financial innovation and ensuring adequate regulation, the presidents, prime ministers and other leaders clearly tilted toward more regulation. A joint statement at the conference did not suggest how to accomplish this, but noted that “necessary and timely measures should be taken.”

The statement did not exclude innovation, but indicated the preference of the attendees: “Leaders were of the view that to resolve the financial crisis it is imperative to handle properly the relationship between financial innovation and regulation and to maintain sound macroeconomic policy. They recognized the need to improve the supervision and regulation of all financial actors, in particular their accountability.” [that strikes me as pretty meaningless without specifics] [****]

China said that it would attend the international conference in Washington on Nov. 15 that President Bush has organized. But without directly criticizing the United States, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China noted that the effect of global financial turmoil on his country’s financial institutions had been muted.

China has moved cautiously in allowing greater financial competition and in permitting money to flow in and out of the country. “We need financial innovation, but we need financial oversight even more,” Mr. Wen said at a news conference in Beijing on Saturday, according to Reuters.

President Bush and his advisers have also accepted a need for more regulation in some areas. But in a subtle yet potentially important difference of tone that reflects many years of more market-oriented policies in the United States than in Europe or Asia, the Bush administration has repeatedly said that regulation should not prevent banks and other financial institutions from finding effective yet safe ways to meet their customers’ needs. [*****] [again, far-too vague] [***]

David H. McCormick, the under secretary of the Treasury for international affairs, said in a speech in Hong Kong on Wednesday that, “we have undoubtedly learned that our own financial system is in need of reform.”

But he later added, “It would be unfortunate if, as a result of this turmoil, policy makers in China mistakenly abandon their pursuit of financial sector innovation and liberalization that has been so important to supporting China’s growth in productivity and macroeconomic stability.”

The event in Beijing drew heads of state and other top officials of the 27 member countries of the European Union, the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as well as China, Japan, South Korea, India and Pakistan.

Asian nations do not share the close economic policy coordination that the European Union has fostered, and pan-Asian gatherings seldom put forth detailed proposals for international economic policy changes.

This pattern showed up again with the lack of specifics in the statement issued at the conference. It declared that, “Authorities of all countries should demonstrate vision and resolution and take firm, decisive and effective measures in a responsible and timely manner to rise to the challenge of the financial crisis.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

At the U.N., Many Hope for an Obama Win

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102502011.html
At the U.N., Many Hope for an Obama Win
By Colum Lynch
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 26, 2008; A17 [UN] [probably unwise to root for a side in US presidential elections] [Americans normally don’t take kindly to such “interference”] [besides which, if McCain pulls it off?] [he’ll likely have long memory of who cheered for his opponent] [*****]
UNITED NATIONS -- There are no "Obama 2008" buttons, banners or T-shirts visible here at U.N. headquarters, but it might be difficult to find a sliver of territory in the United States more enthusiastic over the prospect of the Illinois senator winning the White House. [I suspect the general dissatisfaction with the Bush administration’s enmity for UN has led to this] [UN hopeful of less unilateralism and more multilateralism] [understandable, but I would advise caution] [****]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/25/AR2008102502011.html
At the U.N., Many Hope for an Obama Win
By Colum Lynch
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, October 26, 2008; A17 [UN] [probably unwise to root for a side in US presidential elections] [Americans normally don’t take kindly to such “interference”] [besides which, if McCain pulls it off?] [he’ll likely have long memory of who cheered for his opponent] [*****]
UNITED NATIONS -- There are no "Obama 2008" buttons, banners or T-shirts visible here at U.N. headquarters, but it might be difficult to find a sliver of territory in the United States more enthusiastic over the prospect of the Illinois senator winning the White House. [I suspect the general dissatisfaction with the Bush administration’s enmity for UN has led to this] [UN hopeful of less unilateralism and more multilateralism] [understandable, but I would advise caution] [****]

An informal survey of more than two dozen U.N. staff members and foreign delegates showed that the overwhelming majority would prefer that Sen. Barack Obama win the presidency, [whose informal survey] [I don’t doubt it but I’m interested whether such a survey exists?] [who commissioned it?] [who conducted it?] [***] saying they think that the Democrat would usher in a new agenda of multilateralism after an era marked by Republican disdain for the world body.

Obama supporters hail from Russia, Canada, France, Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Indonesia and elsewhere. [hum, informal indeed] [9-plus members out of 192?] [***] One American employee here seemed puzzled that he was being asked whether Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was even a consideration. “Obama was and is unstoppable,” the official said. “Please, God, let him win,” he added.

“It would be hard to find anybody, I think, at the U.N. who would not believe that Obama would be a considerable improvement over any other alternative,” said William H. Luers, executive director of the United Nations Association. “It’s been a bad eight years, and there is a lot of bad feeling over it.” [that’s dangerously close to interference] [***]

Conservatives who are skeptical of the United Nations said they are not surprised by the political tilt. "The fact is that most conservatives, most Republicans don't worship at the altar in New York, and I think that aggravates them more than anything else," said John R. Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. "What they want is the bending of the knee, and they'll get it from an Obama administration." [no relation, btw] [****]

The candidates have said little about their plans for the United Nations, but Obama has highlighted his desire to pursue diplomacy more assertively than the Bush administration, whereas McCain has called for the establishment of a league of democracies, which many here fear is code for sidelining the United Nations.

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has avoided showing a public preference about the presidential campaign -- although he has hinted at a soft spot for Obama in private gatherings, [***] according to U.N. officials. His top advisers say they think McCain and Obama would support many of Ban's priorities, including restraints on production of greenhouse gases that fuel climate change.

"The secretary general and the Secretariat of the United Nations take no position on the U.S. election," said Ban's chief spokeswoman, Michele Montas. "The secretary general deeply respects the democratic process, and he looks forward to working with whomever the American people choose." [wise counsel] [more ought to listen] [***]

Many U.N. rank and file are less circumspect, saying they see in Obama's multicultural background -- a Kenyan father, an Indonesian stepfather and a mother and grandparents from Kansas -- a reflection of themselves. "We do not consider him an African American," said Congo's U.N. ambassador, Atoki Ileka. "We consider him an African."

One U.N. official threw a party over the summer and asked guests to place stickers of either an elephant or a donkey on the front door to show their political preference. At the end of the night, the door was covered with about 30 donkeys and two elephants. [that was just stupid] [what was the official thinking?] [***] "We found out that one of the Republicans was an American and the other couldn't vote," according to a U.N. official who attended. "So we convinced the American to vote for Obama."

"I have not heard a single person who will support McCain; if they do, they are in hiding," said another U.N. Obama booster from an African country. "The majority of people here believe in multilateralism," he said. "The Republicans were constantly questioning the relevance of the United Nations."

For the small minority of U.N. officials who have stuck with McCain -- only two of 28 U.N. officials and diplomats questioned said they favored the Arizona senator -- life in Turtle Bay can seem lonely. "I keep my mouth shut," said one American official here who plans to vote for McCain. "Everyone is knocking on wood, counting the days to the elections. Some Americans here are planning to move to Washington," in search of jobs in an Obama administration.

"It will be devastating if Obama loses," the official said. "There has been such an amount of faith placed on the outcome." [***]

The official, who like all other Secretariat staffers spoke on the condition of anonymity, recalled that Democrats have not always been so supportive of the United Nations, citing the Clinton administration's lone 1996 campaign to block the reelection of then-Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali. And some foreign delegations, including Georgia, have been outspoken in their support of the foreign policy approach of McCain, who reacted quickly and sharply to Russian intervention in Georgia.

Still, the Obama candidacy has enormous emotional resonance among delegates from developing countries, particularly for what it says about race in America. They recall that one of the United Nations' most famous civil servants, Ralph Bunche -- an African American who was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for his Middle East mediation -- could never have risen to the same heights in U.S. foreign policy circles. And Kofi Annan, the first black U.N. secretary general, said the prospect of an Obama presidency would be "phenomenal."

Even while critics of the Bush administration here root for Obama, they acknowledge that the U.S. attitude toward the United Nations has improved dramatically in recent years, citing cooperation on Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq.

They say President Bush deserves much credit for supporting U.N.-backed initiatives, including the provision of billions of dollars in funding to fight AIDS and malaria in Africa as well as support for the largest expansion of U.N. peacekeeping in history. And they expect that whichever candidate prevails will be compelled by the United States' falling financial fortunes to work more cooperatively with foreign governments. [****]

"We don't have voting rights," said Yukio Takasu, Japan's ambassador to the United Nations.

But, he added, "We expect whoever [wins] in Washington will have a fresh look at the U.N. and the utility of working through the U.N. And, of course, we have to adjust to them."
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Torrential Rains Kill 41 in Yemen

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/world/middleeast/26yemen.html
October 26, 2008
Torrential Rains Kill 41 in Yemen
By REUTERS [Yemen] [middle east proper] [proximity to horn, Saudi peninsula] [jihadis and Islamists in Yemen] [USS Cole debacle in 2000] [prosecution of global jihadis abroad—extraterritoriality and other complex issues] [followup] [the restive hinterlands where the govt still lacks control] [likely part of Sunni-Salafi jihad against govt and others not sufficiently Islamic] [followup] [jihadis striking again] [torrential rains?] [how serious a problem is this normally in Yemen?] [****]
SANA, Yemen (Reuters) — Forty-one people died and 31 were missing after torrential rain left swathes of Yemen under water, President Ali Abdullah Saleh said Saturday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/world/middleeast/26yemen.html
October 26, 2008
Torrential Rains Kill 41 in Yemen
By REUTERS [Yemen] [middle east proper] [proximity to horn, Saudi peninsula] [jihadis and Islamists in Yemen] [USS Cole debacle in 2000] [prosecution of global jihadis abroad—extraterritoriality and other complex issues] [followup] [the restive hinterlands where the govt still lacks control] [likely part of Sunni-Salafi jihad against govt and others not sufficiently Islamic] [followup] [jihadis striking again] [torrential rains?] [how serious a problem is this normally in Yemen?] [****]
SANA, Yemen (Reuters) — Forty-one people died and 31 were missing after torrential rain left swathes of Yemen under water, President Ali Abdullah Saleh said Saturday.

About 1,700 homes have been destroyed, he said, displacing hundreds of families. [**]

The effects of the flooding, the result of 30 hours of heavy rain, have been worst in the southeast. Mr. Saleh spent Saturday touring some of the regions that were hit hardest.

Yemen, on the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is one of the world’s poorest countries. Its government is already struggling against a rebellion in the north, unrest in the south and a resurgence by Al Qaeda, and the country’s resources are being stretched by a wave of refugees from Somalia. [****]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Kremlin Rules: Mayor of Moscow Exports Russia’s New Nationalism

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/world/europe/26mayor.html
October 26, 2008
Kremlin Rules
Mayor of Moscow Exports Russia’s New Nationalism
By CLIFFORD J. LEVY [Russia] [former USSR] [some of the authoritarian tendencies that have characterized Czar Putin’s last couple of years] [Vlad represents a lot of Russians who don’t care for the way the world has changed since 1991] [mostly understandable and Russia ethos] [use ir text] [use psci350] [it’s larger than Kremlin] [when Putin has mayors doing his bidding, it’s a pretty broad agreement] [one internal check is the falling price of petrodollars] [another, the complex Russian elites have of how the West views them though when the petrodollars trumps complexes easily] [*****]
TSKHINVALI, Georgia — On a clearing in this disputed city, where enemy homes were bulldozed after the conflict in August, Mayor Yuri M. Luzhkov promised this month to build a new neighborhood for the South Ossetian separatists here. [***] [hamfisted swagger that is typical of resurgence of Russia] [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/world/europe/26mayor.html
October 26, 2008
Kremlin Rules
Mayor of Moscow Exports Russia’s New Nationalism
By CLIFFORD J. LEVY [Russia] [former USSR] [some of the authoritarian tendencies that have characterized Czar Putin’s last couple of years] [Vlad represents a lot of Russians who don’t care for the way the world has changed since 1991] [mostly understandable and Russia ethos] [use ir text] [use psci350] [it’s larger than Kremlin] [when Putin has mayors doing his bidding, it’s a pretty broad agreement] [one internal check is the falling price of petrodollars] [another, the complex Russian elites have of how the West views them though when the petrodollars trumps complexes easily] [*****]
TSKHINVALI, Georgia — On a clearing in this disputed city, where enemy homes were bulldozed after the conflict in August, Mayor Yuri M. Luzhkov promised this month to build a new neighborhood for the South Ossetian separatists here. [***] [hamfisted swagger that is typical of resurgence of Russia] [****]

Grinning widely before a boisterous crowd, which hailed him as a liberator, Mayor Luzhkov said he would spend more than $100 million on houses, schools and shopping centers. “We are celebrating a great victory — a victory for freedom and independence,” [****] he declared.

The pledge was notable for its cost — a sizable sum in this impoverished breakaway enclave of 70,000 — but also because Mr. Luzhkov is the mayor of Moscow, not Tskhinvali. The money is to come from Moscow’s city budget. [****]

Yuri M. Luzhkov is a mayor with a foreign policy. A former Soviet apparatchik who yearns to restore Russia’s regional hegemony, he has supported ethnic Russians and stoked separatism in nations along the country’s borders. [***]He has championed a new Russian nationalism that the Kremlin effectively backed with force when it wrested South Ossetia from neighboring Georgia this summer.

Over the past decade, Mr. Luzhkov, 72, has spent hundreds of millions of dollars from Moscow’s well-padded city budget in Russia’s “near abroad,” [****]several city officials said. He has supported pro-Russian separatists in Moldova, built highways in rebellious Georgian enclaves and constructed housing for the Russian military on the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine. [***] [use ir text]

His enigmatic role unnerves Russia’s pro-Western neighbors because he flouts diplomatic rules that prohibit aid to separatists. When foreign governments protest that he is violating their sovereignty and destabilizing their countries, he says he is merely expanding Moscow’s sister-city relationships. The Kremlin says he is acting as a local official or a philanthropist.

But the ambiguity seems purposeful. Russia’s paramount leader, Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin, has sought to undermine new pro-Western governments that took power in the so-called color revolutions. Mr. Luzhkov is, in a sense, spearheading Mr. Putin’s counterrevolution. [****]

“In this type of foreign policy, someone has to carry the aggressive message, and Luzhkov is very suitable for this because he thinks it and really believes it,” [***] said Konstantin Remchukov, owner of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, a Moscow newspaper. “So they use him deliberately.”

Mr. Luzhkov offered typically pointed remarks at the groundbreaking this month in Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital, for the neighborhood, to be called the Moscow district. It is to rise on land that had been Georgian but was essentially ethnically cleansed after being overrun by Russian troops. [****]

“What the heck is Bush thinking?” Mr. Luzhkov told the crowd. “He boasts that America supports the aspirations of people for freedom and independence. But the president of America should come to Tskhinvali, wrecked but alive, wrecked but with people who are experiencing joy and freedom.” [****] [actually since August Bush has been pretty tempered about Russia] [****]

Short and stocky, a Soviet-style proletariat’s cap covering his bald head, Mr. Luzhkov is often shown on state-controlled television journeying abroad. A few days before he arrived in South Ossetia, he went to Abkhazia, the other breakaway enclave in Georgia, where he was also greeted as a hero.

He has been the primary Russian patron of the two enclaves, whose ambitions spurred the conflict in August, and he has long required his city to conduct relations with their separatist governments as if they were independent nations. [***] Only after the crisis did the Kremlin follow suit.

He is so popular in South Ossetia that a street was named after him here in Tskhinvali. South Ossetia’s president, Eduard Kokoity, referred to him as “a dear friend who is one of us.”

But he is the bête noire of leaders who took power in popular “color revolutions” that swept Eastern and Central Europe over the past six years, especially the Rose and Orange Revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine.

The Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, professes to loathe Mr. Luzhkov, and the feeling is mutual. [****] (During his speech here, Mr. Luzhkov called Mr. Saakashvili “subhuman.”)

Mr. Luzhkov, who declined to be interviewed for this article, has also called for Russia to reclaim Crimea from Ukraine. Many Russians consider Crimea, which has an ethnic Russian majority and a Russian naval base on the Black Sea, an integral part of Russia. [and Ukraine just said no to a lease renewal] [****]

If it becomes the next flash point between Russia and the West, Mr. Luzhkov will in no small part be responsible. He has nurtured separatist groups in Crimea that since the Georgia conflict have a new battle cry: we will be next. [****]

In May, when Mr. Luzhkov got off a plane in Crimea, he was greeted by Ukrainian security service agents who warned him to stop fomenting separatism. He instead proclaimed in a speech that Sevastopol, the site of the Russian naval base, belongs to Russia. [******]

“Is it right for us to keep silent?” he said. “We are speaking the truth.”

The next day, Ukrainian officials barred him from Ukraine and began investigating his activities in Crimea, including his support for a cultural center, Moscow House, [***] he set up in Sevastopol. [there’s not a lot Ukraine can do] [one of Ukraine’s most popular politicians (the troika) leans pretty far in Russia’s direction]

Ukraine said it was also looking into the affairs of his wife, Yelena Baturina, a billionaire who is Russia’s richest woman. The Ukrainians contend that she has assisted him by investing money in areas where he is active.

The Georgians have their own inquiry into Mr. Luzhkov. To the South Ossetians, though, any attempts to go after him only underscore the importance of his support.

“If someone comes to your house to kill you, the person who helps you first, the person who extends his rescuing hand to you, how would you feel about him?” said Zalina Abayeva, 38, a government worker who was in the crowd welcoming Mr. Luzhkov to Tskhinvali. “That is how we feel about Luzhkov.”
A Nationalist Streak
Mr. Luzhkov’s nationalism sprang from the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, which deeply pained Mr. Luzhkov and many other Russian leaders who came of age at the height of Soviet power. [****]

They were embittered by Russia’s economic plight in the 1990s and said that the West was taking advantage of Russia’s weakness by encroaching upon its zone of influence. Those feelings hardened when NATO admitted former Soviet satellites and republics.

Mr. Luzhkov also focused on the plight of millions of ethnic Russians who after the breakup found themselves living in other former Soviet republics. He said he believed that these people had been abandoned by the Kremlin [***]under President Boris N. Yeltsin, so he sent tens of millions of dollars in aid to them.

When Mr. Yeltsin negotiated a friendship treaty with Ukraine in the late 1990s, Mr. Luzhkov said it amounted to the “surrender of Crimea.” [****]

Mr. Luzhkov used nationalism — twinned with a reverence for the revived Russian Orthodox Church — to position himself to run for president in 2000. He offered a more establishment-friendly alternative to the virulent nationalism of another contender, the hard-liner Vladimir V. Zhirinovsky. [****]

“At a certain point, this became part of his political image,” Konstantin Zatulin, a member of Parliament and Luzhkov ally, said of Mr. Luzhkov. “In the 1990s, he was seen as probably the only defender of Russian speakers in the former Soviet Union.”

When it became clear that Mr. Putin would win the presidency in 2000, Mr. Luzhkov stepped aside. But he continued to raise his profile.

Since he became mayor in 1992, Moscow has been transformed from a dysfunctional and shabby city into a flashy, traffic-choked metropolis. Mr. Luzhkov has overseen a building bonanza, including a financial complex on the Moscow River that will include the tallest skyscraper in Europe. He even has his own architectural style — buildings topped with triangular turrets, popularly called Luzhkov towers.

On Saturdays he tours neighborhoods to inspect projects and berate bureaucrats, television cameras in tow. He is mentioned more in the Russian media than any politician but Mr. Putin and President Dmitri A. Medvedev.

Still, like Russia as a whole, Moscow has been plagued by corruption. Mr. Luzhkov’s second wife, Ms. Baturina, 45, whom he married in 1991, became a billionaire through her real estate and manufacturing company, Inteko. [***]The mayor’s opponents have attributed her success to cronyism. He denies that.

As a leader of the ruling party, he has shown little tolerance for dissent, filing lawsuits against politicians, journalists and others who criticize him. [****]

In May, after Mr. Remchukov’s newspaper ran an editorial criticizing Mr. Luzhkov for his provocative comments on Crimea, city officials sought to evict the newspaper from its building. Only after an uproar ensued did the officials back down, Mr. Remchukov said.

While Mr. Luzhkov is not a member of Mr. Putin’s inner circle, Mr. Putin has kept him in power. Moscow’s mayor used to be popularly elected but is now appointed by the president. Mr. Putin, who moved from president to prime minister this year, selected Mr. Luzhkov to be Moscow’s mayor last year. [sweet deal] [***]

Mr. Putin has not publicly objected to Mr. Luzhkov’s grandiose vision of the mayor’s role or reined in Mr. Luzhkov’s spendthrift foreign commitments. [which makes Putin look even more moderate] [***]

City officials would not specify how much Mr. Luzhkov had spent abroad, and government budgets in Russia are opaque. Aleksandr Pogorelov, a spokesman for the city’s department of international relations, would say only, “We are engaged in offering aid to those considered Russian compatriots.”

Sergei Mitrokhin, an opposition lawmaker in Moscow’s city council, said the amount over the past decade was hundreds of millions of dollars. Two other city officials from the ruling party, who asked that their names not be disclosed for fear of retribution, concurred.

Mr. Mitrokhin said he had opposed such ventures because Moscow had immense needs. “If it is international politics, then the money should be given out from the federal budget,” he said.
Aid for an Enclave
In June 2005, Mr. Luzhkov invited South Ossetian separatist leaders to a Moscow railroad station, where a train had been loaded with millions of dollars in aid — food, medical equipment, dump trucks, tents and cranes.

Mr. Luzhkov said the shipment was humanitarian. The Georgians labeled it military. [***]And the South Ossetians suggested that Mr. Luzhkov was helping them gird for a coming conflict.

“We say to those who today are trying to foist a dirty political fight upon us: We are Ossetians, and we are a steadfast people!” said the South Ossetian president, Mr. Kokoity.

Later in 2005, as if to drive home the point, Mr. Luzhkov paid for major repairs to a strategic highway in South Ossetia to ease the movement of separatist troops, Georgian officials said.

The city of Moscow has also become one of largest owners of resorts and other property in Abkhazia, which has Black Sea beaches and was a popular vacation area in Soviet times, Georgian officials said. The Russian government has assisted the enclaves as well, giving weapons to their soldiers and Russian passports to their residents, but Mr. Luzhkov often seems to take the lead.

“He has been very notorious in his hectic activities in these conflict areas,” said Temuri Yakobashvili, Georgia’s reintegration minister. “His role is both political and financial, and that is a dangerous mixture because the political talk also comes with a lot of money.”

Mr. Luzhkov has also worked to cement Russia’s gains in the war. Even before it ended, he dispatched officials to prepare to resettle South Ossetians on what was once an ethnic Georgian village called Tamarasheni. [****]

Before the conflict, South Ossetia was a patchwork of ethnic areas overseen by peacekeepers, and its separatist government had no control over Tamarasheni. The village, which has now been absorbed by the capital, Tskhinvali, is in ruins, filled with the carcasses of looted homes and stores.

In his speech here, Mr. Luzhkov did not mention the Georgians who lost their land. He talked about the neighborhood he was building in Tamarasheni, with homes, schools, a sports complex, stores and playgrounds, as a symbol of Russian strength.

“Russia needs nothing,” he said. “It has everything. It is the wealthiest country. But when we see injustice toward South Ossetia, toward the people of Abkhazia, it rises up to their defense.”
Deepening Russia’s Presence
Mr. Luzhkov has devoted even greater attention to Crimea, which many Russians consider a nearly sacred, if disputed, part of their patrimony. [****]

This peninsula on the Black Sea was part of Russia until 1954, when the Soviet leader Khrushchev transferred it to Ukraine. It mattered little then because both were part of the Soviet Union. [***] But after Communism’s fall, Crimea’s ethnic Russians, who make up 60 percent of the population of two million, had to answer to Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, not Moscow. Then came the Orange Revolution of 2004, led by Ukrainian nationalists who are hostile to the Kremlin and want to join NATO. [****]

Much of the friction revolves around Russia’s Black Sea fleet, which has a base in Sevastopol. [***] The Ukrainian leadership has announced that the fleet must leave when its lease ends in 2017. It has also begun requiring the use of the Ukrainian language in public life. [****]

“Ukraine’s leadership is showing an absolutely clear tendency toward the suppression of all things Russian — the Russian language, Russian culture, Russian literature, Russians on their territory,” Mr. Luzhkov said in August. [****]

In Sevastopol, a city of 350,000, Mr. Luzhkov has deepened the Russian presence. He has constructed a branch of Moscow State University, Russian Orthodox cathedrals, schools, a sports complex and other facilities.

Military personnel with the Black Sea fleet refer to their housing as Luzhki because Mr. Luzhkov built thousands of apartments for them. He has proposed spending another $2 billion on real estate development in Crimea.

Mr. Putin has said that Russia respects Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but he has not disavowed the separatists or Mr. Luzhkov. In fact, after Mr. Luzhkov was barred from Ukraine in May, the Kremlin lashed back. [****] [this period was when Ukraine was claiming Russian aircraft and missiles incoming]

“Luzhkov only expressed a view that, incidentally, coincides with the point of view of most Russians who responded painfully to the disintegration of the U.S.S.R.,” the Foreign Ministry said.

The fervor that Mr. Luzhkov has helped whip up was evident last month at a rally in Sevastopol on a hill lined with graves of Russian soldiers who had died defending the city when it belonged to Russia.

Waving Russian flags and singing Soviet anthems, residents praised Russia’s victory in Georgia and spoke of Mr. Luzhkov as a brother in arms. They said he was helping to free them from Ukrainian tyranny.

The city’s chief Russian Orthodox priest, the Rev. Sergei M. Khaluta, blessed the rally. “Truth is with our country!” he said, and it was clear that he did not mean Ukraine. [***]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Israeli Party Leader Seeks Early Elections

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/world/middleeast/26mideast.html
October 26, 2008
Israeli Party Leader Seeks Early Elections
By ETHAN BRONNER [Israel] [domestic politics intersects Israel’s foreign policy] [PM Olmert’s legal troubles that finally took their toll so a new Kadima leader, Ms. Livni attempting to created coalition] [Ehud Barack back in position of considerable influence] [meanwhile, Israeli domestic politics again thwart any sustained effort toward Israeli-Palestinian peace] [followup] [this sort of trouble has always been part of Israeli domestic politics] [*****]
JERUSALEM — Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni of Israel ran out of options in her efforts to form a government and decided her only choice would be to press for early elections, now likely to be scheduled for February, [very risky] [polls show Netanyahu in strong position in Likud] [***] party officials said Saturday night.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/world/middleeast/26mideast.html
October 26, 2008
Israeli Party Leader Seeks Early Elections
By ETHAN BRONNER [Israel] [domestic politics intersects Israel’s foreign policy] [PM Olmert’s legal troubles that finally took their toll so a new Kadima leader, Ms. Livni attempting to created coalition] [Ehud Barack back in position of considerable influence] [meanwhile, Israeli domestic politics again thwart any sustained effort toward Israeli-Palestinian peace] [followup] [this sort of trouble has always been part of Israeli domestic politics] [*****]
JERUSALEM — Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni of Israel ran out of options in her efforts to form a government and decided her only choice would be to press for early elections, now likely to be scheduled for February, [very risky] [polls show Netanyahu in strong position in Likud] [***] party officials said Saturday night.

An associate of Ms. Livni’s, Otniel Schneller, a legislator from her party, Kadima, said by telephone that after the ultra-Orthodox party Shas turned her down on Friday, the hope was that another religious party, Yahadut Hatorah, would join in addition to the leftist Meretz party. But while Meretz said yes, Yahadut Hatorah said no on Saturday, [***] leaving her with too few votes in Parliament to govern comfortably.

The move to elections effectively ends any slim hope that existed for a peace deal with the Palestinians before President Bush leaves office in January. [there was no hope of that] [that ceased to exist months ago] [***] Israel’s elections were due to take place in 2010.

After consulting her closest aides at her home in Tel Aviv on Saturday night, Ms. Livni called the Labor Party leader, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, to inform him of the decision because he had agreed to join with her in a coalition. An associate of Mr. Barak’s said that he simply wished her luck.

Ms. Livni has an appointment with Israel’s president, Shimon Peres, on Sunday afternoon, at which she is expected to give him formal notice that she has failed to put together a viable coalition and favors early elections. Once Ms. Livni takes that step, the president can, in theory, ask someone else to try to form a government. But most politicians and analysts doubt he will do so.

In all likelihood, he will take a few days or at most three weeks to tell Parliament that a government cannot be formed. Parliament will vote to hold elections 90 days later, probably in mid-February.

It will be a high-stakes election, in which Ms. Livni is expected to face two candidates who have already been prime minister: Mr. Barak, of Labor, and Benjamin Netanyahu of the opposition Likud, the current front-runner in election surveys.

Ms. Livni is expected to run with the message that she has been leading negotiations with the Palestinians and should finish the job. Mr. Netanyahu has told associates that he hopes ultimately to form a national unity government to face the country’s challenges. [***] He is more hawkish than the other two. [to put it mildly] [****]

Mr. Barak is expected to assert that Israel should seek an overall settlement with all parties simultaneously — the Palestinians, Syria and Lebanon — and that he is the candidate with the experience and strength to do it. [****]
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

U.S. Resupplies Lebanon Military to Stabilize Ally

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/world/middleeast/26lebanon.html
October 26, 2008
U.S. Resupplies Lebanon Military to Stabilize Ally
By ROBERT F. WORTH and ERIC LIPTON [Lebanon] [the poltical mess since the 2005 assasination of Hariri] [Syria’s long-term designs on Lebanon] [Hezbollah, Fath al Islam, or others?] [followup] [it’s starting to devolve again in Lebanon] [important to note the Shiia connection with non-Arab Iran in contrast to the Sunni-Salafi one the U.S. is confronting] [followup from October 22] [bush white house] [sounds as if some coordination at NSC level] [however, mostly bureaucracy] [use psci469b] [******]
BEIRUT, Lebanon — For years, the Lebanese military was ridiculed as the least effective armed group in a country that was full of them. [***] After the army splintered during the 15-year civil war, its arsenal slowly rotted into a museum of obsolete tanks and grounded aircraft.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/world/middleeast/26lebanon.html
October 26, 2008
U.S. Resupplies Lebanon Military to Stabilize Ally
By ROBERT F. WORTH and ERIC LIPTON [Lebanon] [the poltical mess since the 2005 assasination of Hariri] [Syria’s long-term designs on Lebanon] [Hezbollah, Fath al Islam, or others?] [followup] [it’s starting to devolve again in Lebanon] [important to note the Shiia connection with non-Arab Iran in contrast to the Sunni-Salafi one the U.S. is confronting] [followup from October 22] [bush white house] [sounds as if some coordination at NSC level] [however, mostly bureaucracy] [use psci469b] [******]
BEIRUT, Lebanon — For years, the Lebanese military was ridiculed as the least effective armed group in a country that was full of them. [***] After the army splintered during the 15-year civil war, its arsenal slowly rotted into a museum of obsolete tanks and grounded aircraft.

Now that is starting to change. At the gates of a military base just north of Beirut, groups of soldiers drive new American Humvees and trucks, and some tote gleaming new American rifles and grenade launchers. [****]

The weapons are the leading edge of a new American commitment to resupply the military of this small but pivotal Middle Eastern country, which emerged three years ago from decades of Syrian domination. [***]

The new wave of aid, the first major American military assistance to Lebanon since the 1980s, is meant to build an armed force that could help stabilize Lebanon’s fractured state, fight a rising terrorist threat and provide a legitimate alternative to the Shiite militant group Hezbollah. That organization, which controls southern Lebanon, has refused to disarm, [****] arguing that it is the only force that can defend the country against Israel.

So far, none of the deliveries of heavier weapons have been large enough to require a formal notification to Congress. [***] Those deals are still in the early stages, administration officials said.

Some officials within the Pentagon and State Department have expressed concern about extensive military aid to a country so recently free of Syrian control and in which Hezbollah, which has close Syrian and Iranian ties, has continued to gain political power. And that has been a main concern for Israel, which has been lobbying for a lower level of support to remove the possibility that American tanks and helicopters might one day be used against it. [I imagine Syria and Israel both wonder about the wisdom of this plan] [so do i] [on the other hand, Lebanon must be able to control non-state actors within its territory else they could cause war on Lebanon as Hezbollah did in summer 2006] [****]

History also casts a shadow: the last major effort to assist the Lebanese Army, in the 1980s, ended with American troops being caught up in a civil war.

These doubts, and the contrast with the robust American military aid to Israel, have provoked some anger in Lebanon. A television comedy here this week depicted American envoys handing out socks and toy airplanes to Lebanese generals. [***]

Still, officials at the State Department and the Pentagon say they are convinced that rebuilding Lebanon’s military is essential to peace efforts in the region. [***]

Other nations are involved, including the United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Britain and Canada. There have even been rival offers of assistance from Russia, China and Iran. [****]But so far the United States, which has long been the Lebanese military’s main source of outside support for weapons and training, says it will anchor the effort.

“United States policy is that Lebanon be sovereign and independent and the Lebanon government and its institutions govern all of Lebanon’s territory and disarm militias,” [****]said Christopher C. Straub, deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East. “We recognize that is not going to happen overnight, but that is our policy.”

The plan to rearm Lebanon was born in 2005, after the popular so-called Cedar Revolution forced Syria to withdraw and seemed to vindicate the Bush administration’s efforts to spread democracy throughout the region. In 2006, the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah bolstered the notion that Lebanon needed a stronger military, [***]to provide a national alternative to the Shiite group’s militia.

The army was in terrible condition. After a brief injection of American aid during the early 1980s, it split along sectarian and political lines. The Sixth Brigade, composed of Shiites trained by the Americans, went over to the militias and won a mocking new slogan: “We serve and defect.”

After the civil war, during the years of Syrian domination, the army’s stocks deteriorated to the point that most soldiers fired no more than 30 rounds a year. [***]

“It was like a police force, but undertrained and underequipped,” said Elias Hanna, a retired Lebanese general. “Even the Special Forces are very young and inexperienced now, whereas Hezbollah has lots of experience.”

In fact, the army was deliberately kept weak by the country’s Syrian overseers, who did not want a strong alternative force. [***] That was part of what allowed Hezbollah to grow into such a formidable power during the 1980s and 1990s, using advanced weaponry provided by Iran and Syria.

Now, however, American officials say they have faith in the independence and professionalism of the army, which has become thoroughly integrated to include all of Lebanon’s many religious and ethnic factions, and has avoided interfering in politics. American-driven audits have shown that almost nothing given to the army has ended up in Hezbollah’s hands. [*****] [is it all given?] [does Lebanon not pay for any of it?] [***]

“They have demonstrated year after year after year that when we give them equipment, they take responsibility for it,” said Mark T. Kimmitt, assistant secretary of state for political and military affairs.

An important moment for the army came in the summer of 2007, when it fought and won a three-month battle with Islamists in the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp in the northern city of Tripoli. [Fatah al Islam] [roughly conquest of Islam] [***] That struggle, in which 168 soldiers and an unknown number of militants were killed, vividly underscored the need to re-equip the army. With no combat helicopters or precision weapons, the army had to resort to dropping bombs by hand from its Vietnam-era Huey helicopters, a hopelessly inaccurate method that resulted in the near-leveling of the camp.

Although the United States rushed them 40 loads of C-17 transport planes full of ammunition and other gear, army commanders bitterly resented the failure to provide them with more sophisticated arms.

“Nahr al-Bared lasted 105 days,” said one high-level Lebanese officer involved in procurement issues, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “If we had had attack helicopters, it would have been over in 15 days.”

Another stark illustration of Lebanon’s new military ambitions, and its gaping needs, is visible right now on the country’s northern border with Syria. In recent weeks, after a string of bombings in Tripoli that left 20 people dead — most of them Lebanese soldiers — the military sent 8,000 soldiers to the border to monitor smuggling routes across the northern mountains. [and yet two young Americans reporters were able to get across and get captured by Syria] [though there’s some evidence they were captured on the Lebanon side and driven over the border] [****]

That effort alone was a measure of Lebanon’s new independence from Syria. But the border control force was too small, and it lacked necessary equipment, Lebanese military officials say.

“They have no U.A.V.’s, no night-vision equipment, none of the sensors they use in other countries to tell if what you’re seeing is a threat or just an animal,” [***] the Lebanese procurement officer said, using the abbreviation for unmanned aerial vehicles. “Let’s say you have 50 valleys in one area, and you have soldiers posted on hilltops. They can watch during the day, but at night they can do nothing.”

Lebanese commanders say they are anxious about the slow pace of American military support so far. Of the $410 million that has been committed since 2006, less than half has been delivered [***]— mostly ammunition, communications equipment, Humvees, trucks, rifles, automatic grenade launchers and other light weapons, and spare parts, according to Lebanese and American military officials.

And it is heavier weapons that are most needed, Lebanese officials say. In particular, they want an air defense system, which would allow them to argue that they could completely replace Hezbollah as a warding force against Israel in the south. [hence Israel’s concerns] [what could replace Hezbollah could easily be used to invade northern Israel] [though I agree that Lebanon would be unlikely to pick a fight with Israel on its own] [****]

“It’s the ABC of any army to have the capacity to defend itself,” the Lebanese procurement officer said. “During the 2006 war, Israeli aircraft were shooting from 300 meters up.”

Mr. Straub, with the Pentagon, said the focus is still on identifying Lebanon’s exact military requirements and then finding the weapons to suit them. That means that although Lebanon has requested attack helicopters, for instance, it is not yet a question of approving a specific deal.

“They have first got to define the requirement,” Mr. Straub said. “Everybody wants to rush to the equipment. But we have got to define the requirement.”

Yet one State Department official said that conflicts in the administration are holding up any major deal, as some at the Pentagon and State Department are more eager to rebuild the Lebanon Armed Forces while others are reluctant to move too quickly, given Israel’s concerns. [****] [understandable] [but US must do what’s it thinks is in US interests] [I understand both the reason for caution and the rationale behind building Lebanon’s military] [**] “There are differing points of view,” the State Department official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter.

The Lebanese also want precision antitank missiles and a rebuilt fleet of tanks to replace their aging American and Soviet models. Specifically, they want surplus Vietnam-era M60 tanks that would be rebuilt with American parts and transferred to Lebanon from Jordan. [I can’t imagine said tanks posing a threat to Israel] [on other hand, why does Lebanon need tanks for Hezbollah?] [****]

Even though that shopping list does not include the most advanced weaponry, it has caused serious discomfort for Israel.

“We don’t want Lebanon to be run by Hezbollah,” said one Israeli official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of continuing negotiations with the United States. [***] The fear, the official said, is that the weapons might fall into the wrong hands.

For now, American officials say that they are committed to helping Lebanon get the weapons it needs to defend itself, and the acknowledge that the delays have caused anxiety in Lebanon.

“It is understandable, the frustration the Lebanese are expressing,” Mr. Kimmitt of the State Department said.
Robert F. Worth reported from Beirut, and Eric Lipton from Washington.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

October 25, 2008

Pentagon Finds Company Violated Its Contract on Electrical Work in Iraq

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/washington/25contract.html
October 25, 2008
Pentagon Finds Company Violated Its Contract on Electrical Work in Iraq
By JAMES RISEN [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [defense department and others] [privatization of USFP over the past 8 years—actually longer] [it has seemed especially pronounced in Bush terms as Cheney’s old company has made a fortune off the wars, especially –ir] [110th congress, 2nd session] [*****]
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has rebuked its largest contractor in Iraq after a series of inspections uncovered shoddy electrical work and other problems on American military bases there, according to several Defense Department officials.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/washington/25contract.html
October 25, 2008
Pentagon Finds Company Violated Its Contract on Electrical Work in Iraq
By JAMES RISEN [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [defense department and others] [privatization of USFP over the past 8 years—actually longer] [it has seemed especially pronounced in Bush terms as Cheney’s old company has made a fortune off the wars, especially –ir] [110th congress, 2nd session] [*****]
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has rebuked its largest contractor in Iraq after a series of inspections uncovered shoddy electrical work and other problems on American military bases there, according to several Defense Department officials.

The Defense Contract Management Agency, [****] the Pentagon agency in charge of supervising contractors in Iraq, determined in August that KBR, the Houston-based company that provides virtually all basic services for the American military in both Iraq and Afghanistan, has been guilty of “serious contractual noncompliance” [only now figured this out?] [good heavens] [***] in Iraq, the officials said.

The Pentagon’s finding could lead to cuts or delays in payments to KBR, and ultimately to a decision by the Army to withhold hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses and fees due the company, officials said, but they added that no decisions on financial penalties had been made.

Defense officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss internal deliberations, declined to elaborate on the reasons for the new findings, except to say that they related to electrical problems and other issues. [***]

KBR, formerly a subsidiary of Halliburton, has had a virtual monopoly on military services contracts in Iraq since the 2003 invasion, garnering more than $24 billion from its business in the war zone. [****]

Questions about the quality of KBR’s electrical work on American bases in Iraq have plagued the company throughout 2008, leading to investigations and hearings by Congress as well as an inquiry by the Pentagon’s inspector general.

Internal Pentagon documents obtained by The New York Times suggest that the electrical problems may be more widespread than had been believed. A chart compiled by Army officials and not previously made public shows that more American personnel have been electrocuted in Iraq than the Bush administration has acknowledged. [***]

At least 18 people have died from electrocution since the March 2003 invasion, including 10 from the Army, 5 from the Marine Corps, 1 from the Navy and 2 military contractors. [***] [every American should be angry] [death is unavoidable in war but troops shouldn’t have to worry about their facilities] [***] The most recent electrocution occurred on Feb. 24. A chart listing each electrocution provides details but does not identify the victims by name.

This is the second time that the Pentagon has raised its figures on electrocutions in Iraq. [****]Last spring, the Defense Department said that 12 American personnel members had been electrocuted in the country, and then later told Congress that the accurate figure was 13.

KBR is scrambling to respond with a plan to correct the problems cited by the Defense contracting experts, Pentagon officials said. Pentagon officials held a private meeting with KBR officials in Washington last week to review the company’s response, several of the officials said.

Heather Browne, a spokeswoman for KBR, declined to comment on the Pentagon’s finding.

In the past, some Army contracting experts have complained that their superiors in the Pentagon have been reluctant to confront KBR over its fees and the quality of its work. For example, the Army’s top official in charge of the KBR contract at the beginning of the war has said that he was removed from his job in 2004 after challenging KBR’s billing records for its work in Iraq.

The issue of shoddy electrical work on American military bases in Iraq first emerged in the wake of the death in January of Staff Sgt. Ryan D. Maseth, a Green Beret from Pennsylvania who was electrocuted while taking a shower in his barracks in Baghdad.

Sergeant Maseth’s family went public with their questions about the circumstances surrounding his death and filed a wrongful death lawsuit against KBR, accusing the company of failing to adequately maintain the building’s electrical system.

The Maseth case led to investigations of electrical work on American bases by Congress and the Pentagon’s inspector general, and ultimately prompted an order for comprehensive safety inspections of the electrical work at all American military facilities in Iraq.

Officials said that the Army recently reopened its investigation into Sergeant Maseth’s death, after obtaining new testimony and evidence in the case, including the discovery that another soldier had suffered electrical shocks while assigned to the same room as Sergeant Maseth. [***]

KBR has “fully cooperated with Army C.I.D. on this matter, and we will continue to do so,” Ms. Browne, the spokeswoman, said, referring to the Army’s Criminal Investigation Command. “KBR maintains that its activities in Iraq were not responsible for Staff Sergeant Maseth’s death.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

U.S. Penalizes Companies for Selling Arms Technology

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/world/middleeast/25iran.html
October 25, 2008
U.S. Penalizes Companies for Selling Arms Technology
By HELENE COOPER [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [state department, commerce department, others] [attempting to keep technology out of Iran] [amazing, in a sense, that US companies would sell to Iran but there are always going to be some—we saw it with –iraq and iran in past and it’s probably occurring some now] [with other western nations, I suppose they think they have smaller chance of detection] [110th congress, 2nd session] [*****]
WASHINGTON — The United States has slapped a handful of foreign companies with punitive sanctions for sales of technologies that it says could help Iran, Syria and North Korea to develop nuclear weapons. [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/world/middleeast/25iran.html
October 25, 2008
U.S. Penalizes Companies for Selling Arms Technology
By HELENE COOPER [bush white house] [bureaucracy] [state department, commerce department, others] [attempting to keep technology out of Iran] [amazing, in a sense, that US companies would sell to Iran but there are always going to be some—we saw it with –iraq and iran in past and it’s probably occurring some now] [with other western nations, I suppose they think they have smaller chance of detection] [110th congress, 2nd session] [*****]
WASHINGTON — The United States has slapped a handful of foreign companies with punitive sanctions for sales of technologies that it says could help Iran, Syria and North Korea to develop nuclear weapons. [****]

The State Department in the Federal Register said 13 “foreign persons” — from Russia, China and Venezuela, among other countries — violated the Iran, North Korea and Syria Nonproliferation Act. [***]

The sanctions went into effect in August but were published in the register only on Thursday, State Department officials said. The measure bans American government sales of high technology munitions equipment to a number of entities, including Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, North Korea’s Korea Mining Development Corp., Russia’s Rosoboronexport and Sudan Master Technology. [***]

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, reacted sharply to the notice in the Federal Register, accusing the Bush administration of breaking international law. [**]

“These new sanctions were introduced without any international legal foundation whatsoever,” he said, speaking at a news briefing in Luxembourg after talks with Jean Asselborn, the country’s foreign minister, Reuters reported. Mr. Lavrov said the sanctions would not stop Russia’s trade with Iran.

“All of our trade and all of our military-technical cooperation with Iran is carried out in strict accordance with current international legal norms,” Mr. Lavrov said. “There can be no other explanation here than the rather arrogant extraterritorial implementation of American laws.” [*****] [I’m sure it looks that way from Russia] [but every government has the right to protect itself from enemies] [including Russia] [***]

After Mr. Lavrov’s statement, the State Department sent an e-mail message to reporters saying that it was explaining the sanctions to the affected parties. “We are in the process of informing the relevant authorities in China, Russia, South Korea, Sudan, Venezuela and the United Arab Emirates of the sanctions determinations,” said Gordon Duguid, a State Department spokesman.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

Bush Reserved as E.U. Leaders Assert Power in Crisis

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102401728.html
Bush Reserved as E.U. Leaders Assert Power in Crisis
By Dan Eggen
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, October 25, 2008; A07 [bush white house] [president bush] [global economic meltdown] [bureaucracy] [Bush’s remaining agenda items were already cut down given so little time with so many looming crises] [most recently overshadowed by grave economic crisis in US and world markets] [Bush’s lame-duck status does not help] [I can imagine the WH thinking: the president is being overshadowed by Brown and Sarkozy and even Russia and China] [quick, let’s do something] [*******]
In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy has loudly proclaimed the need to increase regulation and oversight of financial markets, vowing on Thursday to "refound the global financial system" as part of "an intellectual and moral revolution."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102401728.html
Bush Reserved as E.U. Leaders Assert Power in Crisis
By Dan Eggen
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, October 25, 2008; A07 [bush white house] [president bush] [global economic meltdown] [bureaucracy] [Bush’s remaining agenda items were already cut down given so little time with so many looming crises] [most recently overshadowed by grave economic crisis in US and world markets] [Bush’s lame-duck status does not help] [I can imagine the WH thinking: the president is being overshadowed by Brown and Sarkozy and even Russia and China] [quick, let’s do something] [*******]
In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy has loudly proclaimed the need to increase regulation and oversight of financial markets, vowing on Thursday to "refound the global financial system" as part of "an intellectual and moral revolution."

In Britain, Prime Minister Gordon Brown -- who has set up an economic "war room" at 10 Downing Street -- moved ahead of the United States to inject cash into private banks and is leading calls for global accounting standards and stronger oversight of international banking.

President Bush, by comparison, has been more wary in his public remarks as the crisis on Wall Street has grown into a global panic. The departing U.S. president has agreed to hold a global economic summit in Washington on Nov. 15 but has stopped short of endorsing the kind of far-reaching international proposals put forward by Brown, Sarkozy and others.

Instead, Bush has emphasized caution and is urging leaders to view any financial reforms as a way to "preserve democratic capitalism" rather than restrain it. "In the midst of this crisis, I believe the world ought to send a clear signal that we remain committed to open markets by reducing barriers to trade across the globe," [I have no idea what democratic capitalism is] [democracy is governance by the people] [capitalism is private ownership of the means of production] [neither exists, in literal sense, in the US] [it may reveal something about Bush’s thinking] [if so, a bit reflexive is about as positive as I can characterize it] [***] Bush said at an international development conference earlier this week.

The contrast underscores the clashes that could erupt as Bush and other leaders hammer out a global response to the collapse of lending markets. The differences are emerging as markets continue to slide on worsening news, including new data showing that Britain's economy has contracted for the first time in 16 years.

As U.S. stocks fell again yesterday, the White House said it will take time for the administration's $700 billion rescue plan to take hold and pointed to a slight increase in existing housing sales last month.

"The markets are digesting a lot of information, a lot of economic news that is coming in, as well as implementation of the policy tools that we have implemented here and that other nations around the world have started to implement as well," White House press secretary Dana Perino told reporters. "So it's taking a while for the markets to digest that."

The economic summit next month will be held at the National Building Museum in Washington and will include leaders of the Group of 20 major industrialized nations and emerging markets, including China and India. The White House said three top officials will lead U.S. preparations for the meeting: Dan Price, assistant to the president for international economic affairs; undersecretary of state Reuben Jeffery; and Treasury undersecretary David McCormick.

In an interview, Perino said Bush "wants to make sure that he has the benefit of everyone's thinking" before endorsing specific reforms.

"We need to proceed with caution and care but also with all due speed," she said. "The president is concerned about moving too far too fast, and wanting to avoid unintended consequences."

But many across the political spectrum also argue that Bush's reticence is partly a function of his lack of political clout, with low approval ratings and just three months left in office. His status contrasts with that of Sarkozy, who has designs on a broader European role, and Brown, who has used the crisis to revive himself politically.

"Brown and Sarkozy are not going away in January, and they're not being displaced in 11 days when the next president is elected," said presidential historian Robert Dallek. "I also think there's a certain realization or understanding that the more Bush speaks out, the less influence he has."

Charles Freeman, a former Bush administration trade official now at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, said that Brown and other foreign leaders also see the crisis as an opportunity to challenge the United States' role as the leader of world's financial system. [almost certainly] [and sadly, partly because Bush has become perceived as a disaster domestically and abroad] [***]

"Sarkozy and Brown and others are attacking a U.S.-led order," Freeman said. "They're saying, 'We have to revamp this thing, and the U.S. is the problem.' "

Foreign leaders are also looking to see who will win the U.S. election, experts said. Neither Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) nor Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has committed to participating directly before moving into the White House.

Some market participants give the administration credit for pushing through the bailout plan and for eyeing foreign proposals with caution. Warren West, head trader at Greentree Brokerage Services in Philadelphia, said it is unclear whether the aggressive action advocated by Brown, Sarkozy and other foreign leaders is better than Bush's response. "I'm not sure if the actions taken internationally are appropriate," West said. "We're moved so far toward socialism that it is hard to say that we should move more into socialism."

Barry Savitz, senior managing partner at Greenwich Prime Trading Group in New York, said it's too early to speculate on whether Bush should be doing more. The administration needs "to get banks freed up from loans and stop housing from going down," Savitz said. "Maybe the U.S. could have done something differently. I'm not sure what they could have done. This is a process that's going to take time."

In New York yesterday, the United Nations convened a meeting of its board of chief executives, including the heads of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, to coordinate a strategy for containing the crisis.

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon urged the IMF and major central banks to set up "substantial standby lines of credit" that can be used to shore up banks in the developing world. A team of economists advising Ban have said that between $500 billion and $1 trillion is required to stabilize these banks.

"We do not yet know whether our efforts to stabilize the financial system will succeed," Ban said. "Too often, in recent weeks, financial leaders have been criticized for being too slow to recognize problems, for doing too little too late. We must act now to prevent today's crisis from becoming worse tomorrow."

Staff writer Dion Haynes and research editor Alice Crites in Washington and staff writer Colum Lynch in New York contributed to this report.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Building a White House Team Before the Election Is Decided

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/us/politics/25transition.html
October 25, 2008
Building a White House Team Before the Election Is Decided
By PETER BAKER and JACKIE CALMES [the new administration] [10 days out] [cross in societal] [not sure where this belongs] [but since it represents the transition—which is very much a function of the bureaucracy—I’m going with govt] [transition] [election-year politics necessitates] [Obama vs. McCain] [it’s looking increasingly as if the former] [use psci355, 455] [*******]
WASHINGTON — With the economy in tatters at home and two wars still raging abroad, Senator Barack Obama’s team is preparing for a fast start, should he win the election, to what could be the most challenging and volatile transition between presidents in 75 years. [****]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/us/politics/25transition.html
October 25, 2008
Building a White House Team Before the Election Is Decided
By PETER BAKER and JACKIE CALMES [the new administration] [10 days out] [cross in societal] [not sure where this belongs] [but since it represents the transition—which is very much a function of the bureaucracy—I’m going with govt] [transition] [election-year politics necessitates] [Obama vs. McCain] [it’s looking increasingly as if the former] [use psci355, 455] [*******]
WASHINGTON — With the economy in tatters at home and two wars still raging abroad, Senator Barack Obama’s team is preparing for a fast start, should he win the election, to what could be the most challenging and volatile transition between presidents in 75 years. [****]

Mr. Obama’s advisers are sifting résumés, compiling policy options and discussing where to hold his first news conference as president-elect. [***] Democrats say Mr. Obama hopes to name key members of his White House, economic and security teams soon after the election. His transition chief has even drafted a sample Inaugural Address.

Presidential nominees typically start preparing for transitions before the election, but Mr. Obama’s plans appear more extensive than in the past and more advanced than those of Senator John McCain, his Republican opponent. Mr. McCain has also assigned confidants to prepare for a transition but instructed them to limit their activities as he tries to rescue his foundering campaign, [****] Republicans said.

Already the capital is buzzing with discussion about who would fill top positions. Obama advisers mention Tom Daschle, the former Senate majority leader, as a possible White House chief of staff, and Timothy F. Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as Treasury secretary. To demonstrate bipartisanship, advisers said Mr. Obama might ask two members of President Bush’s cabinet to stay, including Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates. [I have often commented positively on Gates in these pages] [and there’s a lot of up side there] [however, since I concluded the US must begin to withdraw from –ir] [and Gates is understandably vested in –iraq’s success] [I’m less sanguine about him staying] [Obama needs a Gates-like sec def who is not vested in staying] [Lugar, Nunn, possibly Gates after a talk with Obama] [****]

Mr. McCain might also want Mr. Gates to stay, according to Republicans close to the campaign, or he might reach beyond the party by tapping Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, the Connecticut Democrat turned independent, [same problem only magnified] [***] to head the Pentagon or the State Department. Republicans said possible Treasury secretaries include John A. Thain, the chief executive of Merrill Lynch, and Robert B. Zoellick, the president of the World Bank. And some see former Navy Secretary John F. Lehman as chief of staff.
No Time to Wait
Neither campaign would publicly discuss its transition planning for fear of appearing presumptuous with little more than a week to go before voters render their judgment. [10 calendar days but probably only 5 real days of events] [***] But as the nation braces to change leaders for the first time since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, White House officials and independent analysts said it was especially imperative for both campaigns to be prepared because of the acute economic and national security threats confronting the country. [***]

“The stakes are higher than ever,” said Joseph W. Hagin, who helped steer Mr. Bush’s transition eight years ago and then served as deputy White House chief of staff until last summer. “You don’t have a lot of time, especially today. There’s not much time for a shallow learning curve. It’s very steep.”

The handover from Mr. Bush to his successor was already shaping up as the first wartime transition in 40 years, and the White House has instituted new policies to smooth the process. The collapse of Wall Street only heightened the urgency, making this potentially the most tumultuous change of power since Franklin D. Roosevelt took over from Herbert Hoover in the throes of the Great Depression in 1933.

Both campaigns have been forced to recalibrate their post-election thinking and consider how involved the president-elect should be in asserting leadership in the 77 days between the election and the Jan. 20 inauguration. In setting economic policy, Mr. Bush would presumably be willing to defer to some degree to Mr. McCain should he win; the Democratic Congress would presumably follow Mr. Obama’s lead.

Mr. Obama has already signaled support for a lame-duck Congressional package of public works spending, aid to cities and states and tax rebates for workers. Democrats close to his campaign anticipate that he would not wait for the inauguration to weigh in on economic policy in other ways as well.

“His inclination is very much going to be to try to help shape the direction of policy” [***] with the Bush administration, rather than “just let them stew in it until Jan. 20,” said a senior adviser, who insisted on anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Still, if he does win, Mr. Obama has to be careful about going too far before he actually takes office, as he seemed to acknowledge the other day.

“We are going to have one president at a time until Jan. 20, when the new president is sworn in,” he said after meeting with advisers in Richmond, Va. “So, you know, there is always a transition period. I don’t want to get too much ahead of ourselves.”

And Mr. McCain has been quick to accuse Mr. Obama of overconfidence. “Senator Obama is measuring the drapes,” he said on the campaign trail the other day, as he often has.
Reflection of Campaigns
Interviews with dozens of Republicans and Democrats over the past two weeks suggest that the transition efforts mirror the campaigns — where Mr. Obama’s is methodical and highly regimented, Mr. McCain’s is more tightly held and seat of the pants.

Mr. Obama’s transition team is led by a former White House chief of staff, John D. Podesta, who has been preparing for the task at the research organization he runs, the Center for American Progress, since long before it was clear who would win his party’s nomination. Two longtime advisers to Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., the vice-presidential nominee — Edward Kaufman and Mark H. Gitenstein — are serving as his representatives to the team, [***] although Mr. Biden is said to be so superstitious that he refuses to discuss the transition.

Mr. Podesta has been mapping out the transition so systematically that he has already written a draft Inaugural Address for Mr. Obama, which he published this summer in a book called “The Power of Progress.” The speech calls for rebuilding a “grand alliance” with the rest of the world, bringing troops home from Iraq, recommitting to the war in Afghanistan, cutting poverty in half in 10 years and reducing greenhouse gases 80 percent by 2050.

The Obama team has four groups, which in turn are divided into roughly a dozen subgroups, according to Democrats informed about the effort. At first, they said, there were three main groups — for personnel, executive actions and legislative strategy — but the team recently added a fourth reflecting the imperatives of the economic crisis and known as lame duck.

As he sets about trying to build a team, Mr. Obama has several possibilities for White House chief of staff, most notably Mr. Daschle, his close adviser, although that could be complicated because Mr. Daschle’s wife is a lobbyist. Other possibilities mentioned by Democrats include Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, former Commerce Secretary William M. Daley and Mr. Obama’s Senate chief of staff, Pete Rouse. Mr. Podesta, who held the job under President Bill Clinton, could also be recruited for another tour of duty.

Besides Mr. Gates, some Obama advisers favor keeping Dr. James B. Peake, the veterans affairs secretary. But Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. has made clear to colleagues that he has no desire to stay on no matter who wins, [who can blame him] [who ever is treasury sec has a difficult and thankless job] [***] and neither nominee is inclined to ask him, associates say. Instead, Obama advisers are weighing a short-term appointment of an elder statesman to get through the current crisis and help instill confidence in global markets. The names being mentioned include the former Federal Reserve chief Paul A. Volcker and former Treasury Secretaries Robert E. Rubin and Lawrence H. Summers. [Rubin is very good] [but he also has fingerprints on the current global meltdown] [****]

But one senior adviser said it would be important to send a message of change at a time of economic crisis. “You can expect a fresh face instead of a recycled face” at the Treasury, the adviser said. He said that would include the boyish-looking Mr. Geithner, 47, who worked at the Treasury under Mr. Clinton and his Republican predecessors and has generally gotten high marks for his role in shaping the government response to the current crisis.

To run his transition effort, Mr. McCain tapped Mr. Lehman, the former Navy secretary who served on the commission that investigated the Sept. 11 attacks. Two other advisers, William E. Timmons, a Washington lobbyist, and William Ball, another former Navy secretary, are assisting. [I can attest that Lehman is very good] [***]

Like other 9/11 commissioners, Mr. Lehman has expressed strong concern over slow transitions that leave a new administration short-handed to deal with an early crisis. But Mr. McCain has been leery about being too forward-leaning. Many Republicans who would normally be consulted about plans and personnel said they had detected little preparation — perhaps, they said, out of a sense that it would only be an exercise in “going through the motions,” as one put it.

Many Republicans believe Mr. McCain would bring his top campaign staff with him to the White House, including Rick Davis, the campaign manager, whose history as a lobbyist has come up repeatedly during the election. Others who would most likely accompany Mr. McCain to the White House include Mark Salter, his adviser and alter ego; Douglas Holtz-Eakin, his economics adviser; and Randy Scheunemann, his national security adviser.

For the Treasury, some Republicans said McCain might turn to his primary rival, former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, or even Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York. Mr. Zoellick, a former deputy secretary of state, is a possibility for either the State Department or the Treasury Department, Republicans said.
A Helping Hand
The Bush administration has extended more help to its would-be successors than any past White House, relying on an intelligence law Mr. Bush signed after the 2004 election authorizing the government to conduct pre-election background checks on transition officials designated by the campaigns. [archive in hydrablog and, I think, quite generous considering] [that it’s about his legacy doesn’t make it any less important] [***]

For the first time, the president-elect’s advisers will be given interim security clearances and access to classified information the day after the election.

The White House also formed a 14-member transition council that met last week for the first time to coordinate everything from passing over domestic security duties to helping the new team find parking. Mr. Bush’s aides are preparing a series of briefings and a proposed schedule that they will offer the incoming team.

Joshua B. Bolten, the White House chief of staff, has made a seamless transition a priority, mindful of the rocky, recount-shortened period in 2000-1 and a slow confirmation process that left many national security officials still unconfirmed when Al Qaeda attacked eight months into the administration.

Several Republicans said Mr. Bolten was planning to recruit his predecessor, Andrew H. Card Jr., to help guide this year’s transition.

White House aides said their interest was strictly nonpartisan and noted that they would offer each campaign the exact same help.

“This is not about politics,” said Blake Gottesman, Mr. Bolten’s deputy. “It’s about good governance. Everything will be done with full parity.”
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

The ACORN Storm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102402954.html
The ACORN Storm
From John McCain, hyperbole about potential voter fraud
Saturday, October 25, 2008; A14 [editorial] [the ACORN silliness] [fabric of democracy indeed] [****]
THE VERY "fabric of democracy," or so Sen. John McCain warned at the final presidential debate, is at stake. "We need to know the full extent of Senator Obama's relationship with ACORN, [which] is now on the verge of maybe perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country," Mr. McCain said, referring to the liberal group the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now. Mr. McCain's hyperbole about ACORN, which has endorsed Mr. Obama, is unwarranted.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102402954.html
The ACORN Storm
From John McCain, hyperbole about potential voter fraud
Saturday, October 25, 2008; A14 [editorial] [the ACORN silliness] [fabric of democracy indeed] [****]
THE VERY "fabric of democracy," or so Sen. John McCain warned at the final presidential debate, is at stake. "We need to know the full extent of Senator Obama's relationship with ACORN, [which] is now on the verge of maybe perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country," Mr. McCain said, referring to the liberal group the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now. Mr. McCain's hyperbole about ACORN, which has endorsed Mr. Obama, is unwarranted.

The group, whose voter registration drive has helped sign up about 450,000 low-income, minority and young voters this election, has been accused of submitting phony or duplicate registrations. ACORN itself has acknowledged problems, noting that in Nevada "there have been several times over the past ten months that our Las Vegas Quality Control program has identified a canvasser who appears to have knowingly submitted a fake or duplicate application in order to pad his or her hours." [***]ACORN says it phones those who sign voter registration cards to verify that the applications are valid and flags the questionable registrations for election officials. Most of what are presumed to be fraudulent registrations can be explained as clerical errors; voting officials routinely check registrations against databases, such as driver's license records, to identify questionable submissions. [***]

If ACORN or any other group has engaged in a scheme to submit phony registrations, by all means that should be thoroughly investigated and prosecuted. What Mr. McCain's alarmist attack ignores, however, is the enormous gulf between improper voter registration -- whether fraudulent or merely erroneous -- and actually committing fraud at the ballot box. Evidence of fraudulent voting is scant, though there is always a risk. But there is a far greater risk of citizens entitled to vote being turned away from the polls -- and the real threat to the "fabric of democracy" is the McCain campaign's effort to stir up unfounded suspicions of massive voter fraud, casting unwarranted doubt on the legitimacy of the election.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Status Uncertain

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102402828.html
Status Uncertain
The outgoing Bush administration needs a fallback plan to authorize U.S. troops in Iraq after Dec. 31.
Saturday, October 25, 2008; A14 [editorial] [-ir] [no SOFA and not likely to have one before America’s writ expires] [WP has been relatively bullish on war and “surge”] [****]
THE BUSH administration's effort to complete a bilateral agreement with Iraq on U.S. military forces made sense when negotiations began eight long months ago. Now, with elections looming in both countries, a fallback plan is needed. Though a deal has finally been drafted, the need for its ratification by the Iraqi parliament has placed enormous stress on Iraq's new political system. Provincial elections in January pit several rival Shiite parties against each other; Iran and its allies are campaigning aggressively for the pact's rejection. Shiite leaders, including Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, know very well that Iraq needs continued support from U.S. troops -- but they also know that taking a public stand in favor of a continued American presence could cost them heavily at the polls, and in Tehran. [I wish they woud read hemingway and learn how to write decent paragraphs] [but the assessment of what looms is pretty accurate] [****]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102402828.html
Status Uncertain
The outgoing Bush administration needs a fallback plan to authorize U.S. troops in Iraq after Dec. 31.
Saturday, October 25, 2008; A14 [editorial] [-ir] [no SOFA and not likely to have one before America’s writ expires] [WP has been relatively bullish on war and “surge”] [****]
THE BUSH administration's effort to complete a bilateral agreement with Iraq on U.S. military forces made sense when negotiations began eight long months ago. Now, with elections looming in both countries, a fallback plan is needed. Though a deal has finally been drafted, the need for its ratification by the Iraqi parliament has placed enormous stress on Iraq's new political system. Provincial elections in January pit several rival Shiite parties against each other; Iran and its allies are campaigning aggressively for the pact's rejection. Shiite leaders, including Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, know very well that Iraq needs continued support from U.S. troops -- but they also know that taking a public stand in favor of a continued American presence could cost them heavily at the polls, and in Tehran. [I wish they woud read hemingway and learn how to write decent paragraphs] [but the assessment of what looms is pretty accurate] [****]

In its waning days, the Bush administration has its own political problems. Congressional Democrats have been skeptical of the accord, even though it contains no provisions for permanent U.S. bases or a hard American commitment to defend Iraq. In the past several days, the administration has been stepping up its pressure on the Iraqis: Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, Ambassador to Iraq Ryan C. Crocker and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen have all warned publicly that a failure to ratify the deal could mean that U.S. troops will cease operations and withdraw to their bases on Jan. 1, when U.N. authority for their presence expires. But the Iraqi government is nevertheless preparing to ask for a new set of amendments to the agreement; no doubt some officials are anticipating that a better deal may be available from the next president.

As it stands, the "status of forces" agreement appears reasonable. It calls for U.S. troops to withdraw from Iraqi cities by July and to leave the country by the end of 2011. But it makes the timeline conditional on the readiness of Iraqi forces to take over and allows for an extension of the final withdrawal date if the Iraqi government requests it. Iraqi demands for authority to try U.S. soldiers accused of crimes have been settled with language that allows for such prosecutions, but only in cases where soldiers commit crimes while not on bases and while not performing official duties.

Perhaps a few face-saving modifications will be enough to win sufficient support in the Iraqi parliament. But the administration should be ready with stopgap measures -- if not a new U.N. resolution, then a temporary bilateral agreement that preserves the status quo and allows renewed negotiations next year. [my solution: declare victory (there’s not likely going to be a better time in next 4-5 years), and begin withdrawing] [SOFA would get signed] [US would keep only emergency contingency which it would have to be prepared to withdraw should things head south sharply] [***] The next president may be better positioned to seal an accord with Iraq, but he should not have to inherit a crisis over the status of American forces there.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Rescuing Capitalism

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/opinion/25sat2.html
October 25, 2008
Editorial
Rescuing Capitalism
[editorial] [global economic meltdown] [what to do?] [****]
It would be fairly easy to dismiss the gleeful boast by President Nicolas Sarkozy of France that American-style capitalism is over, to file it with French critiques of fast food and American pop culture.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/opinion/25sat2.html
October 25, 2008
Editorial
Rescuing Capitalism
[editorial] [global economic meltdown] [what to do?] [****]
It would be fairly easy to dismiss the gleeful boast by President Nicolas Sarkozy of France that American-style capitalism is over, to file it with French critiques of fast food and American pop culture.

Except that the United States government now owns stakes in the nation’s biggest banks. It controls one of the biggest insurance companies in the world. It guarantees more than half the mortgages in the country. Finance — the lifeblood of capitalism — has to a substantial degree been taken over by the state.

Even Alan Greenspan, the high priest of unfettered capitalism and a former chairman of the Federal Reserve, conceded this week that he had “found a flaw” in his bedrock belief of “40 years or more” that markets would regulate themselves. “I made a mistake,” he said.

The question is what new direction capitalism should take. In a globally interconnected world, the United States cannot simply march back to the gray flannel capitalism of the 1950s and 1960s when regulations were tough and coddled monopolies dominated the corporate world. [***]Still, the next president will have a chance, not to be missed, to re-evaluate some tenets of the freewheeling, deregulated version of a market economy that has dominated America since the Reagan administration. [***]

Financial deregulation enabled our boom-and-bust dynamic — removing barriers to capital flows, allowing unrestricted trading of abstruse financial products and letting financial institutions take on more and more debt. Cheap money, from China or the Federal Reserve, fueled the fire. But America’s virtually unregulated shadow financial institutions — brokerages, hedge funds and other nonbank banks — played a particularly important role [****]at the center of this process. [I’m not terribly reassured by NYTs’ assessment] [***]

The solution will require rethinking the rules of finance. The amount of capital that banks must keep in reserve will have to rise; deregulated financial institutions will have to be regulated. Yet much more will be needed than just putting the bridle back on American banks.

The next government must re-establish some notion of equity of opportunity. Investment is desperately needed in health care, education, infrastructure. The social contract and the government’s role in it should be examined anew. Addressing these challenges will be an enormous task — especially amid the bitter recession that most economists expect over the next year or so. But they must be faced. Fixing finance is merely the start.
Copyright 2008 The New York Times Company

In Russia, Calm Despite Plunging Stocks and Shaky Banks

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102403380.html
In Russia, Calm Despite Plunging Stocks and Shaky Banks
Ordinary People Express Unease But Not Panic
By Philip P. Pan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, October 25, 2008; A10 [Russia] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
MOSCOW, Oct. 24 -- As the stock markets in Russia tumbled again Friday and the Kremlin continued struggling to shore up the nation's banks, [***] Maria Isayeva emerged from a subway station near Victory Park and shrugged off the crisis with a laugh.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102403380.html
In Russia, Calm Despite Plunging Stocks and Shaky Banks
Ordinary People Express Unease But Not Panic
By Philip P. Pan
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, October 25, 2008; A10 [Russia] [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
MOSCOW, Oct. 24 -- As the stock markets in Russia tumbled again Friday and the Kremlin continued struggling to shore up the nation's banks, [***] Maria Isayeva emerged from a subway station near Victory Park and shrugged off the crisis with a laugh.

"It only affects the rich people! It doesn't affect us!" declared the 61-year-old retired bus terminal cashier, who seemed amused anyone might think she owned stocks. "We're okay. We're surviving, and we have enough to eat." [***]

Isayeva admitted feeling anxious that her children might face hardship in an economic downturn but appeared more concerned about how others in the world were faring. "I just feel sorry for the Americans," she said.

Despite a stock market that has suffered one of the steepest falls in the world, a banking system on the verge of severe upheaval, and mounting evidence of troubles in the rest of the economy, people in Russia remain remarkably calm, even sanguine, about the impact of the global financial crisis on their country. [most Russians are far-less vested in stocks than Americans] [but a lot of middle- to upper-middle class Russians are in] [and so are some very wealthy Russians] [when we were there this summer we witnessed oligarchs moving through city by motorcade] [and Russian simply ignored it as little more than bemusing] [***]

In interviews and surveys, many Russians expressed unease about the economy, and some are bracing for a meltdown like the one that crippled the nation a decade ago. But so far there is little sign of panic, much less anger, underscoring how insulated most Russians are from the financial system, how effective the Kremlin has been in controlling media coverage of the turmoil, and how fully people here have embraced capitalism, for better or worse.

Having recovered from the 1998 collapse and enjoyed strong growth in the years since, many Russians said they accepted the ups and downs of the market and voiced confidence in their government's ability to handle the latest crisis better than it did the last one. [well, that’s sort of Russian to do] [Russia ethos] [***]

"The economy goes in cycles," said Victor Marinichenko, 53, a grinning farm entrepreneur who was buying tea at GUM, the luxury shopping mall that was once a sleepy, state-owned department store. "Moscow is a center of capitalism now. The rich may get richer, and the poor may get poorer, but you can't avoid it."

In a national survey published Thursday by the Moscow-based Levada Center, only a quarter of Russians said they expected the economy to get worse in the next six months, [I suspect they are in for a shock] [***] while more than half said they believed it would stay about the same and 12 percent said they expected it to improve.

A separate poll conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation found that the portion of people who rated the economy as "satisfactory" actually increased during the financial crisis, from 53 percent in July to 62 percent this month. Those who judged the economy as "poor" fell from 28 to 21 percent.

Pyotr Bavin, chief analyst at the foundation, said most Russians simply had not felt the effects of the financial crisis. Less than 1 percent of the population owns stocks, analysts say, and a majority of Russians don't have savings in banks.

"People assess the situation based on criteria from their daily lives -- how many rubles they have in their pockets, whether they can buy something or go somewhere, whether they have jobs," he said. "In these areas, nothing critical has happened so far."

Several Russian firms, struggling to repay foreign debt and unable get new bank loans, have announced plans to suspend projects, lay off workers and cut salaries. But only about 10 percent of respondents in the Levada poll reported anything like that [just wait a couple months] [***] happening to them or their relatives.

"I don't think there will be any crisis," said Stanislaw Vodovin, 19, a courier who was taking a hot-dog break on a bench near Red Square. "I don't like the government, but I think they're handling the economy okay. Things will be getting better."

The public's optimism can be attributed in part to the Kremlin's careful efforts to limit news coverage of the crisis that might alarm people. Journalists say they have been told to avoid using words such as "collapse," "crisis" and "fall," or speculating about banks running out of funds. [***] [just checked Pravda] [one tag on front page about world economic crisis worst in 100 years] [when I followed the link, here were the headlines:
Financial Crisis engulfs Eastern Europe; The Bank Panic of 2008 and the Death of NATO; Kremlin’s image makes all Russians forget about financial crisis] [in other words, pretty average Pravda fare but fewer angry denunciations of West than usual] [***]

At a recent news briefing, a senior state banking official lectured a room full of journalists about their ability to sway the "ignorant" masses and damage the economy. "You have a tremendous responsibility in this situation when so much depends on people's psychology," said the official, who insisted on anonymity because he worried his remarks might rattle the markets.

Both of Russia's stock exchanges plunged about 14 percent Friday, extending a 10-week losing streak and pushing the main indexes down some 75 percent below their May highs. [***]Regulators suspended trading in response, a measure they have adopted more than a dozen times in recent weeks, prompting one analyst to compare the exchanges to a cuckoo clock.

But the country's state-controlled television stations barely mentioned the drop or the suspension of trading. Instead, the evening newscasts have focused on the soothing statements of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, his successor as president, Dmitry Medvedev, and their allies. The Kremlin is worried about the possibility of a run on bank deposits or a rush to convert rubles into dollars. Either could derail its strategy of using the nation's huge foreign exchange reserves to bolster the financial system. The government is especially concerned about the pressure on the ruble, which has intensified because of the falling price of oil. Despite new limits on currency speculation, the ruble weakened Friday to its lowest level against the dollar since 2006.

Though some economists have urged the government to devalue the ruble to boost exports, the Kremlin has instead been burning through its reserves -- the total fell by another $15 billion in the week ending Oct. 17 -- to support the currency. [***]

Devaluation would make it more difficult for Russian firms to pay back the nearly $500 billion they owe in foreign debt. It would also bring back memories of the 1998 crisis and undermine the Kremlin’s message that the Russian economy remains healthy.

Polls continue to show strong public faith in the ruble, with more than 50 percent of respondents saying it is the most secure currency for their savings. Confidence in the banks appears shakier, with 40 percent of depositors saying they are worried about losing their savings.

“My parents put all their savings in the bank, and we’re worried there will be a default,” said Dmitrina Rudik, 61, a retired government worker who was pushing her grandson in a stroller in a park. “At the same time, prices of food are getting higher and higher.”

Rudik said she is also worried the government will seize greater control over the economy in the crisis. Officials recently forced some small shops near her apartment building to shut down for no good reason, she said.

But she and others said they believe Putin and Medvedev will get them through the crisis. Both leaders have seen their approval ratings dip during the crisis, but they remain very popular.

“I’m worried, but I think everything will be okay,” said Luba Ageyeva, 55, a shop clerk selling sodas and snacks nearby. “Our country was weak and not respected before. Putin changed all that, and I think he will take us in the right direction.” [exactly] [Russia ethos utterly] [****]
© 2008 The Washington Post Company

Around the World, the Signs Of Slowdown Spiral Outward

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102403903.html
Around the World, the Signs Of Slowdown Spiral Outward

By Steven Mufson and Blaine Harden
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, October 25, 2008; A01 [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
Pessimism about the global economy deepened yesterday as fresh evidence of a worldwide slowdown showed up in feeble corporate profit reports from Asia, sinking commodities prices, and a scramble by emerging economies to prop up their sagging currencies and avert credit defaults. [***]

The signs of trouble popped up around the globe. Japanese giants Sony and Toyota, as well as South Korea's Samsung, the world's largest maker of memory chips, flat-screen televisions and liquid crystal displays, posted weakened profits and sales outlooks. Toyota's quarterly sales fell for the first time in seven years. Britain reported its first economic contraction since 1992. [*****]

Gloom about economic growth translated to low expectations for oil consumption. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries yesterday announced a cut of 1.5 million barrels a day in output -- a move that still failed to arrest the slide in crude prices. Meanwhile, copper prices fell to a three-year low.

Investors around the world fled stocks and rushed to the relative safety of the U.S. dollar by pouring money into 30-year Treasury bonds, a refuge in times of uncertainty. [***]That drove down the value of foreign currencies, from the ruble to the rupee and the zloty to the peso, [****]forcing central banks to spend billions of dollars to prevent even further deterioration. The turmoil in currency markets threatened to reorder trade relations and complicate recovery efforts.

"I think we're moving into a new stage," said Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and now a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "There is the danger of ever-widening spheres of disruption."

The IMF stepped up its efforts to contain the expanding crisis, agreeing to a $2.1 billion rescue program with Iceland, whose financial meltdown triggered big losses for German and British banks. Belarus, Pakistan, Hungary and Ukraine have also asked the IMF for emergency loans.

Once again, fear gripped many of the world's stock markets yesterday. Japan's Nikkei index plunged 9.6 percent; India's benchmark index dropped 11 percent; Brazil's Bovespa index fell 6.9 percent; and Germany's DAX index fell to its lowest level since May 2005.

In Japan, bellwether companies led the way down. Sony, the world's second-largest consumer electronics company, fell 12 percent after its weak preliminary earnings report, in which it also sharply cut its profit forecast. Canon, the world's biggest maker of digital cameras, dropped 9 percent. Korea's Kospi index was down 20 percent for the week; Samsung fell 14 percent yesterday alone. In India, television news channels called it a "black Friday" as bearish investors were undeterred by the run-up to the most auspicious Hindu festival of good fortunes, Diwali, which is Tuesday. [***]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102403903.html
Around the World, the Signs Of Slowdown Spiral Outward

By Steven Mufson and Blaine Harden
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, October 25, 2008; A01 [globalization] [global economic meltdown] [globalization] [spreading panic in Asia, Europe, Russia shut down trading at least twice last week] [it’s spreading to Asia (we’ve seen actions in China recently), Russia, and Europe (France and Spain)] [now commodity prices tumbling] [more evidence, if more was needed, of how complexly interdependent the world’s nation-states are] [use psci350] [use ir text] [followup] [*****]
Pessimism about the global economy deepened yesterday as fresh evidence of a worldwide slowdown showed up in feeble corporate profit reports from Asia, sinking commodities prices, and a scramble by emerging economies to prop up their sagging currencies and avert credit defaults. [***]

The signs of trouble popped up around the globe. Japanese giants Sony and Toyota, as well as South Korea's Samsung, the world's largest maker of memory chips, flat-screen televisions and liquid crystal displays, posted weakened profits and sales outlooks. Toyota's quarterly sales fell for the first time in seven years. Britain reported its first economic contraction since 1992. [*****]

Gloom about economic growth translated to low expectations for oil consumption. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries yesterday announced a cut of 1.5 million barrels a day in output -- a move that still failed to arrest the slide in crude prices. Meanwhile, copper prices fell to a three-year low.

Investors around the world fled stocks and rushed to the relative safety of the U.S. dollar by pouring money into 30-year Treasury bonds, a refuge in times of uncertainty. [***]That drove down the value of foreign currencies, from the ruble to the rupee and the zloty to the peso, [****]forcing central banks to spend billions of dollars to prevent even further deterioration. The turmoil in currency markets threatened to reorder trade relations and complicate recovery efforts.

"I think we're moving into a new stage," said Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and now a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "There is the danger of ever-widening spheres of disruption."

The IMF stepped up its efforts to contain the expanding crisis, agreeing to a $2.1 billion rescue program with Iceland, whose financial meltdown triggered big losses for German and British banks. Belarus, Pakistan, Hungary and Ukraine have also asked the IMF for emergency loans.

Once again, fear gripped many of the world's stock markets yesterday. Japan's Nikkei index plunged 9.6 percent; India's benchmark index dropped 11 percent; Brazil's Bovespa index fell 6.9 percent; and Germany's DAX index fell to its lowest level since May 2005.

In Japan, bellwether companies led the way down. Sony, the world's second-largest consumer electronics company, fell 12 percent after its weak preliminary earnings report, in which it also sharply cut its profit forecast. Canon, the world's biggest maker of digital cameras, dropped 9 percent. Korea's Kospi index was down 20 percent for the week; Samsung fell 14 percent yesterday alone. In India, television news channels called it a "black Friday" as bearish investors were undeterred by the run-up to the most auspicious Hindu festi